Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - 2026 Is Already Decided (Most Aren’t Ready) + Stock Market News 22 January 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - 2026 Is Already Decided (Most Aren’t Ready) + Stock Market News 22 January 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you're sitting on some cash right now or the same old stocks that you've been buying for years, what's about to happen in 2026 is going to make that worth a lot less.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: But if you understand what I'm about to show you, you could position yourself potentially for one of the biggest wealth transfers we've seen in modern American history.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking nearly$5 trillion flooding into the economy, a complete reshaping of global supply chains, AI spending hitting two and a half trillion, defense budgets exploding to over a trillion dollars, and interest rates policies that will be determined by a poodle.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: And all of that will determine whether your investments soar or whether your savings, well, just evaporate.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: So the stakes are high.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: The gap between those who understand these six trends and those who don't, that's the gap between building generational wealth and watching inflation steal your money.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: I promise to use that by the end of this video, you'll know exactly which sectors are about to explode, which investments to avoid, and how to potentially position your portfolio for what's coming.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Because 2026 isn't just another year.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's the year when multiple economic forces collide in a way we have not seen since the 1980s, which were glorious because that's when I was born.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Felix Fring, I'm an ex-investor and banker.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's Winston back there, who's done all the hard thinking around this, which is why he looks so tired.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: No, it was probably his hike this morning.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: And we're also the founders of GOAT Academy.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: We have taught over 20,000 students.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also the co-founder of TradeVision, where we give retail investors the same level of market intelligence that used to be reserved just for institutions.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: So our mission is simple: teach regular investors like you to see around the corners, understand the game before it's played, and make decisions based on what's actually happening, not what the headlines want you to believe.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: So, what I'm gonna show you today is not speculation.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: It is based on signed legislation, federal budgets, and policies already in motion.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna walk you through six trends here for 2026 that are happening, whether you're ready or not.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: So this video, this training, will make sure you're ready.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: And here's what no one's gonna tell you on CNBC or mainstream media.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: The system is designed to move wealth from people who don't understand these trends to people who do.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's the goal.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: So let's make sure that you're on the right side of that equation.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: So let's start off with trend number one.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: You might want to take notes.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there will be a workbook that you can download in the community.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: There's a link to it down below if you want to find it.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: But you might want to take notes because it's actually gonna go in.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: This is gonna be pretty, pretty information dense.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: So, what's trend number one?
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: This is the 4.7 trillion float.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: This is the money printing on steroids.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the official story is that the one big beautiful bill is tax relief for hardworking Americans.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: And you deserve tax relief if you're a hard-working American.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: I think everybody deserves tax relief, actually.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: But the reality check is, and I need you to understand this because SGP have absolutely no clue what's coming next.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: The next nine months, in the next nine months, 4.7 trillion is gonna flood into the US economy.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: 4.7 trillion in nine months.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let me put that into perspective.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: That is three times larger than the 2008 bank bailout, which bailed some of my good friends out.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: They were very grateful.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, one of my mentors is an ex-Bell Stearns guy, uh, which is kind of funny.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: I banked that one down there.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um this is 20% of the entire US economy hitting the market in nine months.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: And it comes in three waves.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Wave numuru, and understanding the timing is everything, this is tax refunds.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: 1.2 trillion in tax refunds, and that starts pretty much now because they've moved the tax refund deadline forward.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: So in late in February, the earliest tax refund season in American history, by the way, the average American household is going to receive$8,500.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now, of course, this isn't evenly spread.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Some people get a lot more, some people will get a lot less, you know.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the world.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and the government will tell you it's because we're so generous.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the actual reason is that the tax cuts were applied retroactively for 2025.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: But the RS didn't adjust their withholding tax tables, so everybody overpaid.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: So, congratulations, you gave the government an interest-free loan, and now you're gonna get your own money back and you're gonna say thank you to them, aren't you?
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the market went up 17% last year.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: They should really give you an extra 17%, shouldn't they, if they'd invested your money, but of course they haven't done that.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now, why is that important?
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Why is any of this as important?
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Because when you give people tax refunds, all the science out there shows us this.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: 35% goes to debt repayments.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Good, good stuff.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Guys, pay off those credit card bills and you consume a debt.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: 25% you just go in shopping for stuff you didn't need, and 20% goes into savings and investments.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's the investments part that I'm particularly excited about, and honestly, if I were you, I would put the whole thing into debt repayments and into investments.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Because that's actually going to make your life way, way, way, way better.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, you deserve a vacation.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: I get it, I get it.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: But what's the second part?
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Wave numero de.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Um that's the really big money.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because the bill includes a one-time repatriation holiday, and again, that's not a vacation for dead bodies, right?
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Returning from abroad.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: That would be gruesome, wouldn't it?
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's a very gruesome video today.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Um it allows corporations to bring back overseas cash into the United States and pay a reduced tax.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking$2.1 trillion.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Apple, Microsoft, Google, the pharma companies have been hiding this money.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, strategically positioning it overseas.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: And they leave that money in places like Ireland to avoid US taxes.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's a terrible Irish accent, wasn't it?
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I actually have a very big Irish team.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna come and find me now.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh now, what are these companies gonna do without money?
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, to start with, it is absurd that you can be Apple, an American incorporated business, and you can hide your money in Ireland and not pay tax on it.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Just an opinion.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you might as well just lower the tax rate so they'll actually bring it back all the time.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, they're gonna do it in one in one go, one time.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: And apparently they're going to invest this money in America.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now, here's what they're actually gonna do with the money.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: Because there's always the official narrative, and then there's the reality, right?
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: We've looked at all the previous repatriation holidays, because this has happened before, and what do they do with the money?
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, they give 70% of it to investors, right?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: Invest in America.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: No, we're just gonna pay it ourselves.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, all the guys running these companies are significant shareholders of those businesses, and the share price goes up and they have stock options, and that's good for America.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um, 10% of the money actually gets invested.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Business time isn't gonna be any different, if you ask me.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: But then maybe I'm a cynic, right?
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, and you if if you're wondering um what happens to the other 20%, that goes to MA, which is just sort of in the bin of um, no, sorry, it's a it's um a welfare fund for the underpaid investment banker on Wall Street.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: Because they need a certain number of deals so they can pay themselves a seven-figure or eight-figure bonus, so they can buy more Ferraris, you know, pay for the house and then tuck it and then in the Bahamas, and then, you know, two mistresses are expensive.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that that that's that sort of the welfare fund part part here.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, they're gonna do well at this.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, we all are very happy for them, aren't we?
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: All right, getting more serious.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: What is wave numerous tests?
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: It is at 1.4 trillion, seems like a small number now, doesn't it?
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: It is the third wave.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: It comes from businesses being able to write off the cost of investments now rather than over years.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe you are, maybe you own a small business or something.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: So say you buy a car, and that car normally gets written off, say, over 10 years.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: So the value decreases, and every time it decreases, you can pay a little bit less tax.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Here, what they're gonna do is there's gonna be one great big beautiful write-off.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: So who benefits from that?
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, who spends a lot of money on, like, say, equipment?
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, um we're gonna put some of these names into the into the um workbook, but you might want to write some of these down Caterpillar, Deering Co., industrial companies, construction companies, infrastructure companies, and the big tech guys buying all that AI infrastructure, NVIDIA.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the guys paying for it, the Microsoft's, the Googles, the Amazons.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this all sounds good, right?
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Loads of money hitting the market, but there is of course a truth here.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and when we put our economic analyst hats on and ask the obvious question that nobody actually wants to answer Fermi on in Washington, where is this 4.7 trillion coming from again?
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's being borrowed.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: And when the government borrows money, it doesn't have the money, it borrows it and pays for it.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: Not the corporations getting the tax breaks, not the billionaires moving their money back from Ireland, um, not the people receiving the massive dividends and buybacks.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: You do.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: How?
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Um, inflation.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: The government calls it economic stimulus.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: The translation is we're gonna print money, hand it to ourselves and our pals, and you, my friend, are going to pay through it for it through higher prices on everything you buy.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: But this is crucial.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: If you understand the game, you can position yourself to benefit rather than get fleeced, right?
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: So there are investment implicaciones from this.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna run you through those.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: We look at a couple of the charts, maybe even uh, God forbid, and I look at it in sort of a timeline here.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, there is a truth to timelines that they shift.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: And they shift on the basis of where the big money flows.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: So the whole investment thesis that I was taught as in banking was it's about where the big money flows.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Like we don't make the market, the big money does, so let's follow that.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to get more out of this than just this rather in-depth video, come and join me on Saturday where I'm running a live training.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna walk you through literally how the big money moves and how we can see it at the right time so we make better decisions.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a link down below, FelixFrencelog slash trading.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be an hour and a half, I'd say, maybe around two hours if you guys want to ask me lots of questions.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and I'll actually break that down for you.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: But as I'm standing right now where the money is sitting, this is the older I'm seeing in him.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got small caps.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: IWM would be the thickest thing of that.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: We've got consumer discretionaries.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: We can pick individual stocks, we can get and go for EDF.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: We're also looking at home builders, we're looking at retail.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: And some of these themes are not entirely new because we've been in those for a while.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: But if you look at, say, and I'm not gonna bore you too much with charts, but you look at something like IWM, and say you understood a little bit about charts and resistance and money flows, you had tops here, you had a top there, we've broken through that top just.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: We're looking very bullish, some institutional resistance up sitting up there, and I don't want to get too technical here, but those are the kind of institutional indicators that we look at, and you can look at those inside TradeVision, which is the app that we build.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: So this looks actually pretty exciting from my point of view.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and and and then there are a bunch of others that we can look at um together on on Saturday if you want to join me for that sort of in a bit more detail.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as we move through the middle into the middle of the year, the investment place change, in my humble opinion.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, the megacap stocks are gonna benefit.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's the immediate write-offs, right?
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's bringing money back and therefore paying for buying their own stocks with buybacks, but just gonna pump their own stocks.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: So we're looking at the Apples, the Microsoft, the Googles, um, they're gonna benefit from that.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the whole bringing money back to good old USA season, right?
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: We also have the dividend aristocrats, so companies with consistent high dividends benefiting from this.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: We have the investment banks.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Because some of that money that's gonna come back home is going to flow to our friends, the investment bankers, through MA mergers and acquisitions.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you swap one of the MA bankers because they're particularly um full of themselves.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: So um XLF would be an ETF to run that with.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: We can also look at some individual stocks, which is what we're doing.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: We can also do that more on Saturday if you if you want to join me there.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: Link again down below.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as we move into the later part, the latter part of 2026, I would expect the actual investments to flow in.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: So some of that money, you know, the 10% that's actually being invested, that is gonna flow into capitally intensive industries.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: Think industrials, XLI would be an ETF.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Think materials, copper, steel, aluminium companies, infrastructure stocks.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: Those are the kind of things.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna look at some more individual stocks in a second, but that's kind of where I'm starting off with this thesis.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: But bear in mind, this money injection is going to cause inflation.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: And the government will say, no, it won't.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: The Fed say it won't.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: They told you the same lie during COVID when they said, we printed how much money did they print during COVID?
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Give or take?
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: It was about 4.7 trillion.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: Give or take, right?
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: That caused massive inflation.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: We got officially 9.1% inflation.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if that's officially, you know that in reality it was probably a heck of a lot more because governments lie, I'm sorry, strategically, seasonally adjust the base so that the numbers look better.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: Something like that.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: So when you print money like that, 20% of all the money out there in nine months prices go up.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's just true, it's just maths.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: So, how do we protect ourselves from that?
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, in my opinion, gold is still a very good inflation hedge.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: Silver tends to outperform in inflationary periods.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's already massively outperformed, so you want to be a little careful with that, but and and I'm still loving it.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um Bitcoin.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if you um if you if you like that sort of thing, um, and you like volatility, and I think the whole thing is owned by uh certain three letters, but we shan't get into that.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um we're trying to make sure this video stays live, right?
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: So let's be be as uh you if you can read between the lines, you know what I'm saying.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um real estate.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: So real assets, stuff that you can actually touch and feel and taste and lick and chew.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um he likes to choose things.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Assets are real estate, right?
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: Commodities.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: And because you might be thinking, that's all a bit difficult, Felix.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: I don't really know about gold and solar, where do I buy it and so on?
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, before we dive into the next trunk, again, you want to understand not just what to buy, but when to buy it and how much to allocate, and most importantly, learn the system that Wall Street actually uses.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm going to give you a free masterclass that walks you through exactly how the big players pick the sectors and the stocks and manage their risk and actually keep their profits instead of giving it all back to the loveies on Wall Street.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: So come and join me on Saturday, feelixrens.org slash training.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: And literally, I mean, if you just take away like a little bit about risk management or position sizing or any of those things, that'll be worth like 10 times more than any stock tip that I could ever give you.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: So links down below.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: You you you know what to do.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: But let's keep moving because we've still got a lot to cover.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: They're giving away so much money, this is gonna be a long one.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, trend number two, tax cuts.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: The one big, beautiful bill isn't just about flubbing money into the economy, it's also about changing the tax code in ways that will affect every single American and even us foreigners, because we all invest in beautiful stock exchanges.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: So, what are the changes?
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, there are some permanent changes, and of course, nothing is really permanent because governments come and go.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: But the income tax rate is essentially now permanently lower.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: These are the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: So we're looking at 10% to 37%.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: And they're going to keep adjusting them for inflation, well, official inflation, not the real inflation.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: And then there are some temporary goodies in there.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the part where the government pretends, I mean, sorry, cares about the working people for four years.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: There will be no tax on tips.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm I'm a I'm a foreigner.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: I I I I struggle with your tip culture in the US.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: I I like tipping people, but the whole percentage calculation and it being, you know, more than the meal, it's it's it's it's it's weird.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's weird.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, if you are a worker who receives tips, you can now deduct$25,000 in tips um per year.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: But of course, there's a but.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: It phases out if you make over$150,000 if you're single or$300k if you're married.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the official narrative is we're helping service workers.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: The reality is it benefits restaurant owners more than the workers because now they have an even better argument for why chips should make up the majority of compensation and they should really not pay you any salary whatsoever, right?
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_00: There's also no tax on overtime, so you can deduct the extra portion of overtime.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's a limit to that.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's$12,500 per person.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, officially, um, they are rewarding hard work.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: The reality is it creates an incentive structure where companies would rather have you work 60 hours or 80 hours than hire another person.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: Then hey, at least you get a tax break on your burnout, right?
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: So it's the burnout tax break.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now, for the seniors out there, if you're a senior, put an S in the chat.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: If you're 65 years or older, you get an additional deduction of$6,000 per person.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, phases out above$75k, but again, it's a it's a it's a nice one.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_00: We also have a car loan interest deduction.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: You can deduct up to$10,000 in interest on loans for new vehicles that are assembled in the United States.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: So I think foreign buggers can still make most of the components, but it's going to be assembled by uh, you know, the American worker.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: So the government is now essentially subsidizing car loans.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, that definitely won't create any weird incentives, or course, auto loan debt to balloon.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely not.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: This is a good and rational decision.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what about the big one?
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the big one is for wealthy people.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: There is an estate tax exclusion, death duties, 15 million per person.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's pretty freaking generous, I must say.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: I've never really seen any country in the world that has something that that generous.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um, it's 30 million if you're married.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so all the um old um, well, if you're a billionaire, it doesn't really matter, but if you've got 30 million, you're you're not married, you're you're better, you're better, you better get married.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so if you think this is great and it affects you, congratulations, you're in the top 0.1%.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now the rest of the world is going to subsidize that that estate planning, but that's okay.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um sold caps have also increased.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: And essentially, this is a tax cut for wealthy people in high-tax states like California, New York, New Jersey.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: Because if there's one group that desperately needs a tax break break, it's people making half a million dollars a year, right?
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that's uh that's It's important, and I think we all stand with those.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: Take it from the nurses, give it to those who make at least half a million a year, I say.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, while the tax, the government's handing these out, this is not a political statement.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just just kidding, really, with you.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_00: I I'm not a fan of tax.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think I think tax should be generally lower for everybody.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe we'll get that.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: So what are they cutting?
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: Um Medicaid uh SNAP food assistance.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_00: They're phasing out the clean tax energy credits, uh, which were always bollocks because clean and energy just doesn't go together.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um and they're also phasing out income-driven student loan repayments.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: So basically, making for given student loan debt taxable again.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: Let's make student loan debt taxable.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um so anyway, um basically what happens, you're rich, you get tax cuts.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um, if you're poor, um your food assistance and healthcare struggles a little bit.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: If you're in the middle class, well, you can get that beautiful tag car loan now, right?
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: And you're gonna get some few minor tax breaks.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and so the system is working as it's intended.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: I say with some cynicism.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: So the winners, um, of course it's the uh working American.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: We must not uh deviate from official government uh policy, but no, it's the um the auto lenders and the car companies, luxury goods, estate planning, which is financial services.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: Woo-hoo! Um, I've got some friends of financial services.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_00: The losers, solar companies, EV companies.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, EV companies, yes and no, because the auto lending will actually help them quite significantly.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, a big beneficiary of this is Tesla.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_00: Because Tesla is the only EV company that actually makes profitable EVs.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: So if you take away um the subsidies for everybody else, you basically make Tesla the monopoly for EVs.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: So that's good for Tesla shareholders.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now, let's move on to trend number three.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: He's still with me for trend number three, four, five, and six, and we're gonna try and speed this up a little bit.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we're moving to something that most people are not paying attention to, but absolutely should.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_00: Critical minerals and rare earth elements.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the official narrative is this.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, El Presidente Trump issued a proclamation um citing national security concerns about America's dependence on foreign buggers who make all the critical minerals.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the reality is, and why it matters for your money, the United States is a 100% net importer for 12 critical minerals and more than 50% relying for 29 others.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_00: So even if the US can mine these minerals domestically, the US does not have processing capacity.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: So you dig it up, you're gonna ship it to China, they're gonna refine it, and you've got to ship it back, which is, you know, interesting.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: So the US literally sends raw materials to its biggest sort of geopolitical rival of the moment, and then it buys them back at a markup, um, which is dependency.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: So what are we talking about with this whole thing?
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you need rare earths for everything from fighter jets to smartphones, uh, you need them for batteries, lithium, robots, you need all this stuff for semiconductors, for military optics, for infrared technology, and basically China controls pretty much the whole thing, at least the processing, they control pretty much all of it.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to make electric motors, and everything electric has an electric motor and wind turbines, military equipment, um, well, you're gonna have to be nice to China.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, you can't make it.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: So Trump's therefore said, we're not gonna put tariffs on those things, as that would be silly, you would just pay more for it.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we're gonna secure the supply chain.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: So the goal is to secure domestic processing and diversify away from foreign suppliers.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this is a 10-year project.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: This is not gonna happen overnight because mining and processing facilities and so on take a long time to build.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: And it requires a lot of money, environmental approvals, technical expertise, and you know, development and so on.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: So, where this gets interesting is that the Defense Department is really stepping up and understanding its supply chain, which they'd never done before.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: So, for us as investors, the government has announced a billion dollars in critical mineral funding, 135 million specifically for rare earth processing.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: So, who benefits from this?
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let me give you some names.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: We've got light path technologies, the ticker symbol there is LPTH, you've got MP materials, ticker symbol is MP, and then a bunch of other domestic manufacturing companies.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um, now LPTH, just a word on that, this is not a stock tip video, obviously, but they make optical components.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: They're now one of the very few American companies that can provide germanium, uh, which is now banned from being sourced from countries like China and Russia for military applications.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: They have a guaranteed customer, the US military, which has unlimited funding because they can just print money.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, there are also some others.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_00: There's UCOR rare metals, for example, that focus on establishing a US-based rare earth processing infrastructure.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, as I say, MP materials is here.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but you could also just go into just construction, engineering firms.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_00: There is a bunch of that.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um now, so essentially the the take there is the government is guaranteeing the price points.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: It's LPTH, for example, sort of very nice run-up, very nice breakout here at about$19.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry,$10.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, is it too late?
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about it on Saturday.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: MP Materials is actually um has done nothing since July of the of this year, uh last year, which is an opportunity, I think, potentially, if you if you know how to get yourself into it at the right time.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_00: So again, join me for that on Saturday.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, but let's move swiftly on um and try to be a little bit less cynical.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: The elephant in the room of the golden retriever, that would be root, um, this is a$2.5 trillion elephant.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: So worldwide AI spending is expected to hit$2.5 trillion just this year.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_00: 44% more money than last year to be spent.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: We're spending that Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, most of it.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well,$500 to$700 billion on infrastructure.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now, AI is going to revolutionize everything, we're told.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to increase productivity, solve all of our problems, and it's going to create amazing new opportunities.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and there's some truth to that, by the way.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: But there is also reality, it's going to displace millions of people in their jobs, um, which is just true, right?
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: Literally 35% of large US companies are adopting AI workforces.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: 20% plan to slow hiring or cut the workforce.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and um the uh the people who really, really care about you, you know, the World Economic Forum, uh, those lovely people.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they have your best interest at heart, absolutely.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_00: They say it's gonna displace 8% of current jobs.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't sound like a lot, but that's obviously millions and millions of people.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's true, just like every other technological shift has done that.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um now, you won't be replaced by AI directly.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna be replaced by somebody who knows how to use AI better than you do.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: So that's an important lesson there, I think.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: So, where's the money gonna go?
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_00: And how can we benefit from this shift?
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, AI chips are gonna get a lot of money, including a 28% uplift.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, think Nvidia.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: AI servers, interesting.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_00: Data centers, that's a lot of money.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: 580 billion.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we have also the software guys, and people often don't talk about that.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: AI soft.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh software.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's a 4x from last year, 230 billion.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so there is definitely something we might want to look into there, right?
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: And there is a shift here.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: You can't just buy the same things you're buying a year or two ago because we have a shift to AI inference.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: What does that mean?
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_00: What does inference even?
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: It comes up with these words.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: It means running AI models that are actually in production.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: That is going to exceed the spending on training AI models, which is where we're coming from.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: So all the money went into training and teaching AI models, and I hope they're going to continue because AI asked me yesterday, can you please confirm what day it is?
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: Because I'm getting confusing and conflicting dates.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I was like, surely there is a source of truth for what day of the week it is, surely.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_00: But it's really struggling with that.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, what does it all mean?
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of companies are done experimenting.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_00: They're deploying AI at scale.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_00: So, what are the obvious, obvious plays here?
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, NVIDIA, AI chip king, nobody else has come close.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, parlantia, the integration layer.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_00: AI, like I said, you know, I use AI a lot for all my businesses and everything.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_00: And it does a lot of stuff amazingly well, and then occasionally comes back and says, uh, today is Tuesday, and I'm like, today is Wednesday, and then it'll say, as I'm recording this, I think it's actually Thursday, but it doesn't really matter.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then it says, uh, no, you're not right, and then it'll count back days and it'll skip a Tuesday somewhere, and I'm just thinking, oh my god, you're gonna run the world.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, Palantir actually makes AI work.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_00: So if you run a regulated business like insurance or banking or you're a government or military where decisions kind of matter, right?
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_00: Do we kill them or do we not?
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um you're gonna use Palantir.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_00: They're also explicitly named in the border security initiatives, they're gonna get a lot of money for that kind of stuff.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, it's a huge company now, 450 billion.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: So it's something something to uh to think about there.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: But if I look again at the chart, we're gonna dive into that in a lot more detail on on um on Saturday.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: You see an interesting line here, right?
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: You see that red line there?
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's our institutional resistance.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_00: And what are you seeing?
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're struggling to break through that line.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_00: So again, understanding institutional money flows is always very important.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_00: Um, this is actually a beautiful setup, in my opinion, not quite right yet to buy, but about to be.
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_00: Again, we'll I'll walk you through the details there, otherwise this video will never end.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_00: Like, Felix, make it stop, make it stop, Winston, make it stop, show the wires.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_00: It looks a bit too sleepy, doesn't it?
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they are going to benefit from this because they're actually gonna monetize the benefits of AI faster than everybody else.
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_00: Can we go to some others?
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you got the pics and the shovels, you got the semiconductor foundries, uh, think uh things like GFSI.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh they make the actual chips, 8 million market cap.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty small play, but could be a could be an interesting one if onshoring continues cooling and power infrastructure, data center energy.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's definitely something uh that's gonna continue to benefit because energy is what they all need.
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um, now I'm not an AI cynic.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's actually amazing, but a lot of people are gonna be AI victims.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, as an investor, you want to be on the side building and deploying the tools and on the side being replaced on them.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so as we have 35% of companies that are using AI, we have 65% of companies that are not.
• 31:04
  SPEAKER_00: So we're just in the first inning of a multi-decade shift in spending.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: And the companies, investors who recognize this early, they're gonna build some serious generational wealth potentially.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: The ones who ignore it, well, they're probably gonna get left behind.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: So you want to be in that space, you want to understand the money flows, the sectors, the individual companies, and I'm gonna give you all the rules for that on SAT.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now, number five.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of my favorite topics.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: Not because I love war, I don't, but because when it comes to government spending, defense contractors have the ultimate guaranteed customer.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: Trump has proposed a defense spending of one and a half trillion dollars.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the Congress has approved 900 billion of that for this year, so we're gonna have to get an uplift this year and then for 2027 a 50% increase.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, apparently, homeland security and protecting America and that sort of thing.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and again, I don't want to get political about this.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, I was I was making the same jokes about Biden, and people were always saying, Oh, you love Trump.
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_00: I make the same jokes about Trump, and people say, Oh, you love, I don't know who, you know, Kamala.
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, or that uh, who's this that Californian governor?
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um Musom, um, who seems to be doing a particularly horrid job, if you ask me.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_00: But again, this is not meant to be a political, but yeah, yeah, I don't get a saying, your politics is up to you guys, right?
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not American.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_00: I just see it from the outside.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: I I look at the what they're doing, what they're saying, and then I look at how can I make the most money out of this.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_00: Pure cynicism over here.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the good thing with that is that you you don't get disappointed because you have no expectations of politicians.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, where does the money go?
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, missile defense is gonna get a lot of money.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: The Golden Dome of America.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh basically a an Israeli type missile shield.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_00: So who's gonna make it?
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well, RTX is the obvious winner.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_00: They make the Patriot missile system.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_00: So they already have guaranteed spending through to 2032 for that uh seven years of locked-in revenue.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: What sort of business has that guaranteed revenue?
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there are also some others.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: There is Park Aerospace, PKE.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: Uh there is MOG, which is called MOOC.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, these are sole source suppliers of components for the Patriot missiles.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: Sol source suppliers means you're a monopoly.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: Your customer is the government, right?
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_00: So it's kind of an interesting business to be in.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, something worth looking at, I'd say.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and then what for the but the whole drone thing?
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_00: The military is moving from these specialized drones to literally giving every soldier and infantry squad their own drones, which makes sense because otherwise they're all gonna die.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so we got aero environment, ticker symbol, there is A V A V.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they make military drones.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, it's only about a billion-dollar company, if I'm correct on that.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna win some major army contracts, I believe, in the coming quarter.
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_00: You have Anguil, um, be great, but they're not publicly listed yet.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: You have drone aviation, ticker symbol is D-R-N-E.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's a counter-drone system.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_00: They also benefit from the Safer Skies Act, which gives local law enforcement some counter-drone powers.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_00: They can pop them out of the out of the sky as they should.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_00: And um, what about some others?
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Palantir, because I think they're gonna run and run the whole thing.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: They're gonna tie it all together, otherwise, it doesn't work.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then you have Space Force that's gonna get 30% uplift and spending, uh, rocket labs in there, they build satellites, um, rapid launch, and so on.
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_00: $800 million contract from Space Development Agency.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you have uh Laser, LASR.
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh they make high-power fiber lasers that can power energy weapons.
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_00: So laser can shoot down a drone for like, you know, a dollar versus, you know, sending a$500,000 missile to take one out.
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_00: Small company, uh$2 billion market cap.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, LASR is the ticker symbol.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put it on the screen for you here.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: ASR.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: So that's maybe some one to have a look at.
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_00: There is a little bit of a warning here though.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: Trump has threatened defense contractors, they pay out dividends or buybacks, they're not going to get contracts.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so that's not quite as investor-friendly as as we would like.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I've talked in the past about a Korean defense industry index.
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, with Palantio, I mean, look at our channel.
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_00: We started talking about that in February 2021.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_00: It was at$29.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't mean we're right on everything, by the way.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, KDEF, we talked about that a little while ago.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_00: Go back in my videos, and that's obviously been a very nice run-up for anybody who caught that up 20 odd percent up or so, which is which is good.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: So, again, we follow institutional money.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_00: We're not claiming to be smarter than anybody else.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_00: We just look at like what's the data, what's the um what's the big money doing?
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's really literally what it's all about.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that's laser weapons.
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to be conservative about this, um RTX, Lockheed Martin are probably your consider a safer place for growth, Palantir Rocket Lab, they're gonna be more volatile.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to be uh Mucho agnesivo, then a light path, n light, aeroenvironment, and so on.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_00: You know, again, it's not get rich by Friday place.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_00: This is a multi-year trend, but it's also one of the few areas where the government will never cut spending significantly, because politicians love being able to say, I support our troops and defense contractors spread the manufacturing across every congressional district in America.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_00: So it's the most bulletproof government spending there is basically bulletproof, maybe not the greatest phrase there.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: And and then number six, and this is this is the poodle, this is the poodle plan.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_00: What does the poodle plan in entail?
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_00: So you have a president.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's a thick pen, isn't it?
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_00: You have a president, um, uh, and he wants to win the midterms, and then he wants to be popular and he wants to have the most beautiful economy in the world, and I hope you get it.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so what does he do?
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he has the power to appoint the Fed poodle.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry, chair, but you you know what I mean.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now he appointed the last Fed poodle, but he became independent, he sort of to rat sort of run the thing, um, Chair Powell.
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um, he's a Trump appointee.
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's a he's a card-carrying Republican.
• 37:09
  SPEAKER_00: People often don't realize that.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and and and now, weirdly, eight years later, the same president, weirdly, gets to appoint the next Fed chair, sorry, poodle, or you know, the other way around.
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_00: Except this time he's going to pick one who's actually going to be uh a well-trained, obedient golden retriever.
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: So therefore, he is going to cut interest rates because he's going to get appointed to cut interest rates, and he will have sworn allegiance to his Lawton Master to cut interest rates.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now the market expects one cut this year.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry, the Fed expects one cut this year.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_00: The market expects two cuts this year.
• 37:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think if we have Trump to entertain us, we're going to get the biggest and most beautiful tact uh Fed rate cuts in history.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: And therefore, I think we're going to get three or four or more cuts second half of this year, and then going into the year after.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, very simple.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_00: Debt becomes a lot easier to pay if your interest rates are lower and the economy gets pumped because investments are cheaper, your car loans are cheaper, everything is just cheaper, everybody feels like they have more money.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um let me scroll past some of these.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: Uh in in reality, yes, there is a risk we're gonna get some serious inflation.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a that's not just a risk.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's actually a a given.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so what happens if interest, if interest rates fall?
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, go back to the post-COVID era.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_00: Growth stocks, moon, real estate's moons, REITs, moon.
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_00: Anything with risk and growth in it goes to the frickin' moon, and the world is wonderful, and everybody's an investment genius until rates go up again when people realize, whoops, I didn't have any risk management.
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_00: So, what are the safest bets?
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_00: Growth and value, uh, real estate, companies with pricing power.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: So think, you know, your Microsofts, your Googles, your Amazons, they have pricing power.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then if we put it all together, we get as a little reminder here, 4.7 trillion hitting the economy, massive tax cuts, critical mineral subsidies, massive AI spending, huge defense spending, rate cuts.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_00: And what does this mean?
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it means you're gonna get inflation, and that tends to take quite a few years.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_00: It means that the salary man is going to feel the pinch, the investor man is going to celebrate.
• 39:33
  SPEAKER_00: So, my advice to you would be to take as much of your salary as possible and put it into the frickin' market in a responsible way with some good risk management.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, get yourself some advice and so on.
• 39:43
  SPEAKER_00: Because asset prices will rise.
• 39:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's my opinion.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks, real estate, gold, bitcoin, I think everything is going to go up.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_00: Cash is going to lose massive amounts of value because they're printing more dollars and the dollars are going to be used to buy these assets.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: Very simple.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: So you win people who own stocks, people who own.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_00: Estate people understand what's happening.
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's you, Nargus.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: You made it this far.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_00: Congratulations.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_00: Who loses cash if you have fixed income, um, you know, sort of fixed income investments, and if you don't know what the heck's going on here.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: So, strategy, minimize cash holdings, own real assets, and focus on companies with pricing power.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_00: Diversify, understands risk management, position sizing is way more important than some sort of uh religious affination.
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_00: Affinition is that a word?
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_00: Affinity affinity, what's the word?
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_00: Please tell me.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_00: Um, for a stock, don't fall in love with a stock and watch the sector rotation.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_00: Money flows in fairly predictable patterns.
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what does that mean?
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_00: Well, money will be in one sector and then it'll go into the next sector, and then it'll go into the next sector because Wall Street always chases money.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_00: And as it does that, it leaves great big pae prints in the sounds of time, and we can watch those, and I believe we can use them to make better informed decisiones.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_00: So we run through that the mega caps, the dividend stocks, the financials, the industrial materials, and defense stocks, and maybe this is just a lot of stuff for you to absorb.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was a lot, wasn't it, Winston?
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_00: It was a lot.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: So come and learn the structure of the system that you can apply to absolutely anything, whether you're buying gold and silver or stocks or real estate or anything.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um, on Saturday, phoelixfriends.org/slash training.
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, give you some real education.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to then take it any further and actually learn from real World Street mentors, which is how I learned, I'll also uh break that down for you in a couple of minutes.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'll take your questions and we're gonna have some fun with them.
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: Winston, I say thank you very much for watching.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_00: Don't we, Winston?
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_00: Winston, hey.
• 41:41
  unknown: Hey.
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_00: Not that enthusiastic.
• 41:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's what happens when you hike every morning and get chewed by a bunch of wild golden retrievers.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_00: So, 2026 will be one of the most interesting years.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think it'll be one of the most entertaining years for those who are part on the right side of the whole thing.
• 41:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, massive trends converging.
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_00: We've never seen anything like it.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_00: I certainly have never seen anything like it, never seen a government like this, which will be interesting.
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_00: And the gaps between the wealthy and the not so wealthy will get bigger and bigger and bigger, and you just gotta decide which side of that you want you want to be on.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: The system is designed to transfer wealth.
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_00: That is the purpose.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a flaw, it is the intention.
• 42:21
  SPEAKER_00: So you just gotta you can riot about it, but it doesn't really achieve very much.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_00: Just participate in it.
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_00: And then you have more money and more freedom, more power.
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_00: You can then do something with that and you can do some good because that's what you want to be doing with your time, which I think is a great thing to do.
• 42:38
  SPEAKER_00: So 2026 has already decided.
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_00: I believe it is.
• 42:41
  SPEAKER_00: Come along with us, Felix Francislog slash training, and you got some value out of this video.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_00: Then I'd ask that you share it with somebody who might get some benefit from this too.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_00: All the best.