Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/28/2026 with Jed Sidwell | FED MEETING TODAY

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/28/2026 with Jed Sidwell | FED MEETING TODAY · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Wednesday morning, we're going to be talking about Argentinian corn yields, beef packer margins, and the Fed is meeting today.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: About even lean hogs had a tough one, though.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: They closed at$62, down$2.65.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Whew, rough trade there in the front months and most of the contracts on the hogs side of things.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Before we shout out the grain markets, like to talk about our sponsor, plus 500.
• 1:05
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• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here live, the December corn contract is up just a bit overnight at 451 and a half.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: November beans are coming back a little bit.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's at 1233 even.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: And December Chicago week is at 612 and a half.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: Looking towards this week's weather, we have just a little bit of rain there.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: Heavy rain of two to three inches targets eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Missouri over the next 10 days.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: The heaviest thing from November 1st to November 4th, pushing widespread across the plains, the Western Corn Belt.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Fieldwork will be halted until about the second week of November.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this isn't the only weather that we will be having.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to see an exceptionally warm heat pattern.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure some of you in the Midwest have been feeling this here recently.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's been almost eerily warm at times.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the plains and the corn belt through Wednesday.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: No major freezes on the forecasts there.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Looking towards the grain markets and outside of the U.S.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: today, we've seen some different estimates come from Argentinian Argentina's corn production.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: The first one on the left is the 2023-2024 yield when they had an El Nino.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: And the far one on the right is the 2015-2016 Super El Nino, which sent their uh corn productions through the roof.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: The blue one there is the USDA.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: The green one is the FAS Buenos Aires.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: And there's some discrepancy here between all of those.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see where this actually ends out.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna guess somewhere within that range between the USDA and the Buenos Aires estimates.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: But man, when we have an unprecedented weather event like an El Nino, it's everybody's yes.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it could hurt yields, it could help yields.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: Normally, historically, it helps, but there are the Super El Nino's that absolutely do not help crops.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see what happens down there in South America because this is an international market, and right now we're competing heavily with the same goods.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: On the livestock market side of things, talk about packer margins here, real quick.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen decent recent decreases in packer margins.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now we're still in the black right now, which is more than what we could say earlier in the year, but it tightened from about 30 and a half 30.54 per carcass weight to about 22 bucks and eighteen cents from October 5th to October 12th.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: The cutout slipped about a dollar and a half in cash rose six point or six dollars and eighty six cents to three fifty-two fifty-two.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: And Mike and I will discuss this some more, I'm sure, on our Fat Tuesday show today.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: I know it's Wednesday, but today we will be doing our Fat Tuesday cattle discussion.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Mike brings on a bunch of slides, and that's on the premium side for all you folks out there.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Our AgBull premium subscription, uh, the Fat Tuesday show every single week with Mike Sands, and we discuss everything from cash to feeder margins to what's happening on the southern border, where the Packers are sitting, where the Packers are making profitability, all of these things, cattle on feed.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure we will discuss this week as it came out on Friday.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and stay tuned for that.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we have in the breaking news today.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: The Fed is meeting today.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: No hike is expected, but all eyes are on Kevin Walsh for what's next.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today will likely be short on suspense, with markets expecting the central bank to stay on hold, even with inflation tracking well above the target.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Assuming that the sentiment is correct, it will leave the Fed's benchmark interest rate in a range between 3.75 and 4%.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: And the shift in investor attention is right towards Mr.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Kevin Walsh, and whatever he chooses to provide in his post-meeting news conference will be our kind of hint or information to what these rates are going to do.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see when that happens.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Here it is on the economic calendar.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: It comes out today at 1.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what else we have.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: The NBA mortgage applications already came out this morning at 6 a.m.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the EIA energy stocks come out an hour after the open at 9 30 a.m.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Central.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: I highly encourage you to catch Davis Michelson's shows in the afternoon.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Not only do they come out about around three or four o'clock, but we also live stream this show at 8.15 a.m.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: and Davis's show at 8.15 p.m.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: on X, Twitter, whatever you want to call it.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to see you there.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for tuning in this morning, and I encourage you to go to our website at AgBull.com.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: We have a plethora of things to see there.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Weesmeyer is now distributing all of his content through AgBull.com.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: You can get all of his news updates, Wiesmeyer's perspectives there.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Those are the packages that we offer.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: And we're still giving away some of those free speakers.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: So catch those with a full annual subscription to AgBull.com.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for tuning in this morning.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media, our financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.