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Tariffs, Tech, and the Safety Trade · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome back to Spy Trader , the podcast that dissects the market while you sip your morning coffee .
• 0:06
  I'm your host , Ricky ' The Raptor ' Retirement , and it's 5 am on Monday , January 19th , 2026 , Pacific .
• 0:14
  Now , happy Martin Luther King Jr.
• 0:16
  Day .
• 0:17
  While the US stock market is closed today , money never sleeps , and neither do we .
• 0:23
  We're looking closely at futures and current macro news to get ahead of the trading week .
• 0:28
  The market closed mixed to slightly lower on Friday , battling for direction , but the S&P 500 is still up 13.71% over the past year , closing last week at 6,940.01 .
• 0:44
  The big theme right now is a tugofwar between amazing corporate growth and sudden geopolitical chaos .
• 0:51
  Let's hit the headlines .
• 0:53
  Our major headwind this morning comes from politics , specifically President Donald Trump proposing new tariffs on eight European countries over the Greenland issue .
• 1:04
  This instantly slammed US stock futures , sending S&P 500 futures down 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures down a full 1% .
• 1:16
  This sudden risk triggered the classic safety trade : Gold futures hit a new record high of 4,640 an ounce , directly benefiting ETFs like GLD .
• 1:28
  On the corporate side , Q4 earnings season is off to a solid start .
• 1:33
  Major banks like JPMorgan Chase beat estimates , signaling a healthy financial sector .
• 1:39
  But the real story remains AI .
• 1:42
  Technology continues to dominate , with Alphabet , or GOOGL , hitting a staggering 4 trillion market capitalization following news that Apple will use its Gemini AI for Siri .
• 1:55
  This AI infrastructure push is driving expected Q4 earnings growth for the S&P 500 Tech sector to over 25% .
• 2:04
  Now for the analysis .
• 2:05
  The US economy is resilient , posting strong Q3 2025 GDP growth of 4.3% .
• 2:14
  The labor market is cooling slowly , with about 50,000 jobs created monthly .
• 2:20
  However , inflation remains stubborn at 3% , above the Fed's 2% target .
• 2:26
  Consequently , the Federal Reserve is cautious .
• 2:29
  They've paused after three rate cuts in late 2025 and are only expected to deliver potentially one more rate cut in early 2026 .
• 2:38
  This modest restrictiveness is keeping the 10year Treasury yield elevated at 4.23% .
• 2:46
  Sector performance reflects this complex environment .
• 2:49
  While Technology is strong , we also saw Real Estate , VNQ , pop 1.26% last Friday on the eventual hope of rate cuts .
• 2:59
  Meanwhile , ratesensitive sectors like Health Care and Communication Services struggled .
• 3:04
  So , here’s the bottom line : we have resilient economic growth backed by unprecedented AI spending , clashing directly with high valuations and fresh , acute geopolitical risk .
• 3:16
  This means volatility ahead , but the longterm growth story remains intact .
• 3:21
  Time for Ricky's Recommendations .
• 3:24
  First , for your core position , hold the broad market but be ready for dips .
• 3:28
  Use any 5 to 10% pullback caused by geopolitical noise as a buying opportunity .
• 3:33
  Specific instrument : Maintain your holding in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , for diversified , lowcost exposure .
• 3:42
  Second , stay overweight in the growth engine : Technology .
• 3:47
  The AI momentum is too powerful to ignore , driven by companies like Alphabet and strong semiconductor players like Micron Technology .
• 3:56
  Specific instrument : For concentrated growth exposure , look to the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ .
• 4:04
  Third , we need a tactical hedge against these new tariff threats .
• 4:09
  Geopolitical tension is pushing capital toward safety .
• 4:13
  Specific instrument : Consider a tactical allocation to SPDR Gold Shares , GLD , as gold has proven its role as an immediate geopolitical hedge , hitting record highs .
• 4:26
  That’s all the time we have for this early morning episode .
• 4:29
  Trade smart , stay safe , and let’s make that retirement money , baby .