Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets NFL Week 10

Transcript

Best Bets NFL Week 10 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: To the Favorites The podcast presented by BET three sixty five.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: We are part of the Action Network. I am Chadmoman,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: week ten Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: we get feedback from the wise guys who listen to
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the show, where we make our Survivor pick and build.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Our money line, Underdog round.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Robin, where we give out our Foxhold bet and our
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Big Balls bet of the week, and where we narrow
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: down our picks for the free to play Favorites Podcast
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick the contest because
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: of our old pal, Colin Cowhard likes to say there's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: a sea of money out there.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Because there's a sea of money out there. You want
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: to follow along with our official bets.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: You can check them out on the contest website Favorites
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: off on Sunday, and if you prefer using the award
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: winning Action app. You can also track all the bets.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Simon and I lock in by following two accounts, The
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorite Podcast. Now let's bring in
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my capadre my BFF professional
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Better Simon and hello saw im in Simon, Simon. As
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: you know Matt Mitchell and I right now, for those
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: watching on YouTube, you might see my very fancy backdrop.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Thank you Michael in the Copenhagen office for giving us
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: access to the Copenhagen studio. Matt Mitchell and I are
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: both here Simon for a week of meetings with our
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: colleagues in our Danish overlords in Copenhagen, Better Collective. We
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: went to a Champions League match last night, Simon. We
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: saw FC Copenhagen play Manchester United. I've never been to
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a European football match. I know you're a big fan
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: of the europe and football. The only way to describe
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: this game is that the whole game was drunk. There
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: were two penalty kicks, a red card, seven goals two
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: by f C Copenhagen in the final minute to the
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: second half to win. Two people in the stands needed
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: medical attention from the medics that are on the team.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: The game had to be stopped so they could walk
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: across the field with stretchers, and a protester ran onto
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the field. I know how much you love the sport
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I think Matt Mitchell and I can agree. He had
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: some really intimate moments with one of the fans behind
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: him who doesn't even speak English. They were just hugging
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: out of a pure joy of watching f C Copenhagen win.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable. Are they all like this? Are all the European
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: football matches this high score? It is crazy?
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Champions League is definitely something that you know, as
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: much as American sports want to brag and say we're
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: the best and it's all of this and that, what
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: is cooler than having your hometown, your favorite team from
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: your country playing another team's club. It's just the coolest thing.
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: Every Champions League and I didn't do it. It'd be like
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: my Philadelphia Eagles playing the best team from Germany or
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: England or Mexico or Canada. They all had football teams.
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Chad, Chad's all my favorite club. Man United
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: lose pretty embarrassing. I always say the two scariest words
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: in the world unites it away Rashford, he's a player
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: for England, got a Man United, got a red card. Yeah,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: totally flipped that game the game Chad saw and Man
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: United lost four to three, And yeah, I would say
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: you saw probably one of the best Champions League's games
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: you can see in person. They're usually not that that
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: high scoring, so yeah, you saw a pretty special game.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Chad, it was insane.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: We also decided a group of us that the NFL
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: would be more interesting if we could relegate teams, so
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: fairly certain the Bears are being relegated to the Big Ten.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power up the odds on
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five boosts specific markets, your winnings and
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: even parlays. They don't stop there. Keep an eye out
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Check out the boosts and see why it's never ordinary
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: at Bet three six five. Must be twenty one or
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply. Guess what, folks, guess what.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Me and Simon are going to be doing a live show.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: You can come watch the show live mingle with me
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: and Simon. Matt Mitchell will be there. Our gang is
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: going to be there for a live show. So Sunday, Sunday,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: December third, The Favorite is going live from New Jersey.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: That's right, The Shepherd and the Knucklehead on Willow Avenue
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey, will open the doors at
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: three forty five for the four pm NFL games. We'll
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: be hanging out with all of our listeners, having a blast,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: and then recording our Sunday recap show live and in
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: person at seven point thirty right before Sunday Night Football Prizes, drinks,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: warm embraces from the and Simon, and so much more.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: Please look for I believe.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: We have a landing page where you can go RSVP.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So the landing page is in the episode description of
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the podcast, so go check that out. Go sign up
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: at the landing page, Go to the episode description. Shepherd
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead December third free event. Come watch us
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: live December third, seven thirty in Hoboken, New Jersey. Description
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: page has the rs VP all right. Week ten is
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: approaching opportunities all over the board. I feel like we
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: came to a consensus, let's not dilly dally, Simon, it's
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: time for shof calls.
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: Hello, he's there. I'm talking Rain.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone Ray Say.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: Are you allowed to say let's not dilly dally? After
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: you dilly dally for about.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Twenty minutes, I wasn't dilly dallying. That was important information.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I think I've had eight espressos in the last twenty
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: five minutes.
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: Fired up.
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm excited to the live show, have a couple
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: of drinks with the fans, and shout out to the
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: three or four real loyal fans we had that drove
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: up and we had a guy drive from Cincinnati.
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: S it's a Kentucky chat. We did our.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: So Yeah, I'm excited to see what fans turn out.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: And yeah, you want to beer with me and Chad,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: We'll get a beer with you and hopefully, Uh, it's
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: a fun time watching us win some money together at
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: the four pm games.
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, sharp calls. A lot of uh, a lot of.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: Ship talking from the boys this week. They hate hate,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: hate a couple of our picks, which you know that
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: comes with the territory, especially when we're going on some
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: chalk favorites. I kind of knew it was coming, but
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: luckily the Lions have moved again with us. So you know,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: as much as much heat that they're trying to give
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: me about taking the lines, feeling like our genius, he
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: took him a minus one. I mean that lines up
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: the three now a lot of books, So not a shocker.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: The pros are going to like this Chargers team. It's
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: all about what number and and that's my argument is
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: that I want to be on the Chargers, but the
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: number wasn't there and still at three, I still lean
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: towards Detroit like there should be three and a half.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: It's gonna get there. It looks like like it looks
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: like it's not gonna get the three and a half.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: So yeah, add a bunch of people like, hey, none
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: of are Detroit pick and how chalky it is. And
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: it's just I have a model. It gives me a number.
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: If it's under that number, I'm with the public on
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: that side. It all depends on the circumstance as well.
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that line's number. Luckily, it's gone up, so
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: I don't feel like more of an idiot because I
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: was working when I was just sitting there two and
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: a half. I'm like, oh God, maybe I did totally
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: misread this one. But luckily the pro money has showed up.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: It's up to three now. Not shocking a game. I
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: loved that. I mean even now I'm shocked. I loved
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: it so much. Since the verse the Texans I really love.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: Since the pros really like the Texans, we'll be button
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: heads on that one. I really liked Washington. I think
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: you are kind of on the Seattle side, which is understandable.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: It's a weird line. The pros love Washington like I
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: can't tell you how many guys I've talked to I
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: love Washington. They love them in this matchup against Seattle.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of pros view Seattle's defense is fraudulent.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: That they've gone up against, you know, bad competition that
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: has made their defense look way better than it really
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: are hard to argue with it, right, they they've played
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: a couple of good offenses. Those offenses put up more
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: than thirty points against this defense. That's just factual. With
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: the Seattle Seahawks team. So, you know, a game we
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: weren't too crazy about, but it seems like they're taking
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: position on it. Another game, I was shocked by a
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: couple of pros. I talked, you really like the Vikings,
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: I like the Saints. It's up to three now A
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: lot of books so another number that like, you know,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: I get where they're coming from if they want to
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: take the Vikings three or three and a half. But
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: at two and a half, how would you not like
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: the Saints. I feel like that was another time we
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: liked the good number and you know a lot of
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: agreements in the Jets Chad, but I think a lot
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: of guys are viewing this as this number is gonna flip.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: Like a lot of people, I think they talked about
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: what we talked about that they think it's gonna move
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: from Raiders being the dog to the favorite. So another
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: game that I think we talked about. We didn't really
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: give a pick, and I'm kind of happy we didn't, right,
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: I was like, I like, the Jets don't really want
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: to take I think the number is gonna move. I
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: mean it has it's it's a lot of books have
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: a down to one and are some books have flipped it.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: So yeah, for for games that they didn't like that
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: we picked. I know a couple of really smart pros
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: to like the Packers. You know, doesn't shock me. Uh,
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: say what you want about Pittsburgh. I think everyone's seen
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: that national media lines about they haven't won a game
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: yet this year when they've led by an offensive yardage. Yes,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: that's uh, that's a problem, but that's the Tomlin magic.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: Me and Chad we did. I mean, my whole life's
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: melting together. I think we did Greendow Daily Tuesday with
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: Nick and Nick who does our luck rankings posted the
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: luckiest teams of like the last like five seasons. And
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: I want to say last year was the Giants, in
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: the year before that was Pittsburgh.
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: So the past five years, that's what it was.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: And by the way, this is the biggest luck rankings
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: matchup of the week in favor of green Bay.
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: In favor of green Bay, So you know what they're
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: tracking what goes into luck rankings. Apparently Tomlin's really good
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: at it, and that is getting the most out of
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: inferior players. And that's what those luck rankings listened out
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: to me, is that this guy that the Giants luck
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: rankings of last year. I really do think it shows
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: about how incredible this coaching is. Where it's like these
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: teams are these coaches are taking just not talented teams
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: and they're getting lucky. They're getting the bouncers going their way.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: But there's more to it that with this Pittsburgh team.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: So I like was really positive I was gonna make
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: this one of our five no matter what, even if
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: it was if it you know, if it got up
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: to three and a half, I was gonna try to
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: fight you on it. Maybe I need to pull off
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: a little bit because there's so many trends pointing towards
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Green Bay, but man, this would be tough to pass
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: on our contest at two and a half. So yeah,
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: it's it's a week of you know, I was again
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: another game I was opening to hear more about, Chad,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: was this Cleveland game. Yeah, not a lot, not a lot, Brother, Like,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: not not a lot of guys are with you on
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: the taking the stand with Cleveland. And I think it's
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: the fear of the mare in this moxie of they
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: seem like a team that just gets up for it
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: this year, right, like the only real game we could
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: point to the game they've really disappointed this one game
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: the entire year. Well, I guess they a little bit
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, But what's that Colts game? Right against Minshew?
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: They dominated Minshew. That Colts game they lost on a
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: last minute field goal against the Colts. For the most part,
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: the Ravens have been unflappable. But to come around you're
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: on the Cleveland pick, where it's like, isn't this why
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: we should take Cleveland. Then the again more pushback is
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: like just take the money line, Like that's that's what
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: you do, right, you take Cleveland's money line. But for
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: our contest doesn't help us. It's like, well would you
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: take the six and a half? So I've been asking
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: a lot of people and a lot of people are
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: just like, ah, I'd rather do something else.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So they were against us on Dallas, they were against
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: us on Philly when you know, you know.
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: Not all of them, but yeah, the Philly one was
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: more split. But yeah, that definitely definitely tough. And we
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: even talked about the Thursday game. Uh, you know a
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: lot of the guys love the Panthers. I feel like
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: we got really lucky. I feel lucky. I don't know
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: about you, but I bet the Panthers sticking this number
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: is too high because they they'd made it for Fields.
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: It comes out yesterday. Field isn't gonna play now, or
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: he's doubtful. This line has only moved half a point.
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: I can't. I still, I had no idea. You know,
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: I'm so glad we can't with Thursdays and it doesn't matter.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: We're not even talking about it because like it's Thursday,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: and by the time most people listen to this, that
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: game will be over.
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: I hate you. Then why are we doing?
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Why are we doing Thursday shows at five in the
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: morning chats if people can listen before the Thursday night game,
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: damn you listen.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube, So for those enjoying on YouTube,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: the Action.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Network YouTube page.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: We need to start a narrowing down our games, which
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: is why I'm cutting you off on the Bears and Panthers.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: We've got to get to our foxhil We've got to
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: get to our Survivor pick.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: We got to get to our big Balls bet of.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: The week, which comes with a very special translation because
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: we are in Copenhagen. The games we talked about the
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: most this week. Simon, I'm glad that that we're gonna
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: We're gonna. I'm glad you talked about the Bengals. I'm
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: flipping around Matt and Tito in the order and the
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: script because I want to talk about the Bengals because
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Simon was so passionate about it, And it ties up
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: with a stat that Evan has because in my notes
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: when I was going over sort of the past week
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: and getting ready for today, I was struck by how
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: passionate you were about the Bengals at six and a half,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: and we knew the line had already moved like off
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of the seven, which meant somebody felt really strongly about
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: the Texans to move to the keyboard. So you were
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: so passionate about the Bengals. And then like I immediately
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: bought in, I immediately bet it. When I was in Connecticut,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Evan has a stat this year the public sides. Normally
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: you want to bet against the public, right this year
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the public seventy two, fifty four and five. I don't
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: know what that ats percentages. Even if you can you
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: can calculate that. But that's that's good, and that's better
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: than what it's been in the past, which is historically
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: a losing bet. This is the second best. This is
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: the best since twenty sixteen. So I'm with you on
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. You know what, You're my guy, as you
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: once beautifully said, You're my guy, and I support you.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: But I'm also with you.
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: I don't know what happened.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know why I was so passionate about the
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: Bengals on Tuesday. I must have hype myself up just
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: talking about this game. I don't know what happened. I
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: can't believe I made a six and a half point
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: favorite my Simon says play of the week, but I
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: stand by it. I still think this number is gonna
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: go to seven. You're right, though it's still seven's. It
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: moved to seven to a couple of books from the
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: six and a half, but for the most part, there's
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: still a bunch of six and a half.
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: The fear, definitely for me, was coming in here. You know,
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: after the conversation I have with some pros that liked Houston,
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: I was like, if I wake up Thursday and one
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: of this is five and a half. I got to
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: make a big apology to all the fans, so thank
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: god it didn't drop a whole point down to five
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: and a half. I don't look like a total idiot,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I just believe the splits are true. You know,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: CJ is different on the road. Me and Chad did
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: a film Sash two weeks ago about the Cincinnati defense.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: I think they're as much as I love what Joe
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: bro is doing, right, he is the difference maker. Obviously,
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: we see it with that team, Like when he moves
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: in the pocket, he can set that offense up. It's
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: the difference. But the defense has just been slept on
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: for Cincinnati for like three four years now, and they're
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: the reason, not just Joe, that they keep getting so
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: far into the playoffs win in their division. You know,
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: if if this was Tomlin right or some other head coach,
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: would this good of a defense, We'd be going crazy, right,
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: being like this is a rookie on the road coming
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: into this team's home stadium. You know, I just I
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: just think this should be seven, seven and a half,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: and the hype is the reason we're getting a nice
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: bump on this number dropping down to what it is.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: So Chad's right, Like, normally I don't bet favorites really
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: like I'm a big dog better. This year, we've we've
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: adjusted on the fly just because I noticed and week
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: I think week one we went two and three, and
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: then the week the week after that we might have
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: gone three and two, And it was just like the
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: guy in lead was ten and zero, was all picking favorites,
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: and I think I talked to Chat about this is
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: like we need to make an adjustment until it comes.
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: Back the other way.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: So yeah, this year, I mean I think we're what
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: sixty three percent for the season, this contest. I've just
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: been making tons of money ben favorites and these unders,
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Like it's just been an incredible year. If you're been
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: favorites and unders, and we talk all the time football,
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: it's like riding a wave and every wave after one
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: another is going to be different, right, And that's what
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: this season's been like. Every week it's a little different
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: but a little bit more of the same, right, Like
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: we keep seeing these talcky favorites.
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: You know, I talked to Chat.
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: One of my favorite memories, especially when I live back east,
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: is this would have been a fun week for me
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: to go to the sports book Sunday morning, because it
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: would have been packed. Right, the Eagles had covered, the
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: Chiefs covered, these big time favorites, all these people betting them,
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: all their like, all their big bets that came through
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: the books will be packed this Sunday with all the
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: chalk betters getting their tick, getting their money, re betting
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: it everything like that.
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: And joke with Chad, I love these weeks.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: I go, it's packed, you know, uh, the most bet
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: teams of the week, oh and seven that week. And
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: then I show up the next Sunday and it's literally
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: me and three of their guys in the sports book
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: And that's just how it is. So yeah, the the
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: books are getting them fat before the holiday season. Me
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: chatter faded them a little bit, right. We are on
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: the Jags and we talked a couple of games we're fading.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's not like us to not be on
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: like the Chargers.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: Again.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: Another good example this week of like me and Chad
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: normally would blindly bet that, but this year has been
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: a little different and I feel lucky where you know,
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: last year I probably would have been, like you know what,
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: Chargers plus two and a half minu or plus one
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: at home. I'm gonna like them against Detroit, and we
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: just know how the way the public's been betting and
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: that numbers moved. So yeah, again, it's it's tough this week, Chad.
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie like I'm I'm trying not to
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: be scared off these favorites. I'm just trying to trust
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: the numbers, and so far, so good, right Detroit number.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: I feel like I'm not a total idiot even though
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: I took again, I get a lot of shit talk
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: from people, but I got a lot of heat for
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: liking Detroit. I mean, yeah, liking Detroit. And again feels
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: good waking up today and seeing us up to three,
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: because you know, if this is down to one, it's
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: embarrassing like that, it would be embarrassing on the show
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: from me giving out a chalk favorite and the number
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: totally moves against us. So this this week, don't be
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: shocked me and chatting up on two or three favorites.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: So it's funny.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Look, that's the beauty of betting, right is you get
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: to evolve, You get to look at what's fashioning on
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: the field. You're constantly learning when people talk about poker,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: you know, and I know a lot of guys who
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: play professional poker, and you know, one of the biggest
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: stories I ever did for ESPN was about Phil Ivy
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: and I went on this seventy two hour round the
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: world gambling tour with Phil Ivy on his private jet
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: and we went from Connecticut to Montreal, to Amsterdam to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Austria as he was gambling and ultimately playing poker in Austria.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: And I love listening.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: To poker players and sports betters generally earnestly and thoughtfully
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and authentically think about how much they learn about themselves
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: and about markets and about decision making when talking about
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: this kind of thing. And I think betting the favorites
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: is one of the things that you have to think about.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: You can't be so rigid. That's why I like that
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: we sort of.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Have been playing these games the public, by the way,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: fift against the spread this year. So since he to me,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna talk about this at the end
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: of the show signon, I went through and sort of
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: did our preliminary list of five and since he to
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: me was still on it. So if we can get
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: the six and a half, I'm with you, brother, I'm
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: totally with you.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: And we got we got a line change during the show.
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: Here a live movement.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Uh, the the Pros are back in the Ravens again.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: Chat Cleveland up to six and a half now in
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: the action app at every book.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: So oh my god, Yeah, that's so strange.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: All right, can we bounce a down again to do?
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and Tito care if I go to the
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to the Ravens and the Browns then,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: because like, look, this was we just talked about your
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: signon says, which was a weird game for us.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: Yes, shocked, Like I was wondering, this was my exact decision.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: The Pros like the Ravens.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: Man, I don't know why this was, but in a
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: lot of what I'm seeing, it's a Pros Joe's game.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: And like I'm seeing money on the Browns and tickets
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: on the Ravens. So I've been surprised that money haven't
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: hasn't moved back down. So obviously there's some metrics that
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: are that are Ingestion isn't picking up and because somebody
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: likes the Ravens and now it's gone up and I
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: might have to I've already better at five, I better
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: at six. I'm gonna have to better it again at
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: six and a half. Still there when I get back
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: from Copenhagen. It doesn't make any sense to me. Home
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: teams in the division since twenty fifteen forty seven percent
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Home favorites in the division since twenty fifteen,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: forty five percent against the spread. There's a huge amount
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: of inflation on the Ravens because everyone thinks they're super
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Bowl bound. They think they're the best, second best team
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: in the AFC, maybe better than the Chiefs. Like they
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: just beat up a team by thirty four points. You
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: know what happens when you win a game by thirty
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: four points, the spread is inflated and you fade them.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: This doesn't make any sense to me.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not supposed to though. It's like, you know,
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: these pros, they lock on these teams and they've been
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: paying them out, like these guys. They've been backing. The
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: wise Guy's been back in the Ravens a lot this year.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: You know, I even know something that took them against
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: Arizona right, and they were on the right side that
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: whole game until that last second field gout by Arizona,
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: and they view this team as there's always teams like
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: this that they peak at certain points of the season,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: right like this is their peak of the season. For
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: the Ravens, they're beating up on really good teams. And
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: the same exact thing happened last week, Chad. We saw
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: the Seahawks opened I believe a five five and a half.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: We talked about it the Sunday night we came in
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: the Tuesday it was five and a half.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: Six.
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: We talked about it even Thursday it was six, six
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: and a half and comes Sunday that's that's what it
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: closed at six and a half for that Seattle team,
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: And I talked about I didn't even take the six
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: and a half. I just took the money line in
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: Seattle because I had the same view of they'll either
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: win this game where they're gonna get crushed. It's starting
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: to feel the same here with Cleveland, where it's like,
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: if Watson shows up and he can play well, Cleveland
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: wins this game, right, But if if Watson of New
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: shows up and he can't stop turning the ball over
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: and making terrible reads, even the Ravens defense will eat
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: him up. Like, this is not a defense that can
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: played around with. So yeah, I feel very fortunate because
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: I wanted to with Chad too, Like Sunday night, it
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: was hard for me not to take the five and
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: a half feeling lucky that I've sat out in this
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: Cleveland line just because it's not like it's one or
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: two book that moved it. It's every book has moved
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: to six and a half. That means a really smart
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: group hit some book and every other book got word
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: like again, all these books talk to each other and
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: they moved off that hit. So, like Chad said, it
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: looks like in the app that allowed the money right
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: now is coming on Cleveland. But we talk all the time.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: It could be five million dollars from a bunch of
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: really sharp, smart professionals. But if the right group comes
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: in that moves markets and they put fifty k on
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: the Browns, the whole market will move off the bet.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: There's I know people don't understand that stuff, but there
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: are some just really highly respected people in the in
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: this in this world that I live in, and that
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: they do move numbers like this, And I'm with Chad,
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: I cannot believe this is up to six and a half.
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: That is crazy to me. So we'd love to give
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: out the Browns here, but I feel like we can
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: keep waiting. Maybe this will go up to seven by
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: game time, just because it's a big deal with people
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: that it's already up to six and a half here
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: on Thursday. So yeah, it's I know it's one of
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: your favorite games, Chad, but it's gonna it's gonna be
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: tough for me to get this one in on Sunday,
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: you know.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: When the show starts, and I was so confident of
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: what our five picks were going to be, like, it
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: was obvious to me San Francisco, visiting Jacksonville. Talked about
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: it on Sunday when it was a two and a half. Yeah,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday at three. It's settled at
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: three Deebo, Samuel was playing Trot. Williams did not practice
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: on Aday. Yeah, the act again. The metrics in the
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: app are telling us this is a pros Joe's game,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Niners, money on the Jags. I actually
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: still feel really confident about this one.
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: Same Yeah, nothing for me.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: We got one.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah this you know, as always, there's always going to
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: be some pushback, but I think Chad just mentioned a big,
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: big deal to me here at Trent Williams if he
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: does not play, This is a huge deal for a
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Jacks team that you know they don't have the best
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: pass rushers, but against a four nine ers team without
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: their best tackle that they can look a lot better, right,
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: I mean, Josh Allen, that could be a big game
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: for him now without Trent Williams in there. So not
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: gonna lie the fact that Deebo was back. I thought
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: for sure Trent would be back and that that would
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: scare me. Right, Purdy's got all his weapons, like we've
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: seen it, party has time and his weapons. The guy
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: is a playoff winning quarterback, like you know, throw out
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: the seventh round, mister relevant stuff. We've seen when Perdy
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: plays well. Another guy mean Chap broke down in film.
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: He's a really good cornerback, like when it's all there
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: and it's working. Perty is incredible. So the fact that
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: Trent Williams might still win miss this game, I didn't
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: even know that. That's a huge deal to me.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know they will. I just know
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: that he did in practice on Wednesday. I mean that's
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: usually a day.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a big day, especially after a bye week
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: that he's still not practicing. So, like Chad said, though,
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: he is a veteran, so they could just be that
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: he doesn't need the practice. I mean, of all the
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: players in the team that doesn't need to practice, he's
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: one of them. Uh yeah, Obviously today's injury report, we
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: see what he's doing. If it's a DMP again, man,
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: that's got to make you feel great.
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: So yeah, not.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: Shocking to see the public on the forty nine ers,
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: but I am shocked to see that they're you know,
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: just after a bye week, they completely forget what this
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: team's done against you know, these past three weeks, the
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: fact they lost three in a row. Maybe that's the
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: reason they like him so much. But yeah, me and
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: Chad getting a home dog here with Doug Peterson, this
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: Jaguars team that we view as a top three, top
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: four team right now in the AFC, how do we
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: avoid this one? Like me and Chad, especially if this
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: is you know three and a half in contest, guarantee,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be an ether two and a half. Though,
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: I really really feel confident still putting the Jags in,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: So definitely a game we can't avoid this week.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: So you brought up Minnesota and New Orleans. And I'll
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: be honest, this convo was now forty eight hours ago
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: and multiple time zones ago. When I was making my
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: notes this morning, I had no recollection of why we
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: liked New Orleans. All my notes are about how lucky
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: this time this team was to beat the Bears. And
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: this is one of those games where New Orleans went
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: from dog to fay, which is a losing proposition.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Here's one more for you.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: It teams to see the line move three points or
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: more away from them eighteen twenty seven and two against
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: the spread, fifty seven eighty seven and three since the
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: started last season. They're just a bad team, Like, I
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: don't know why we'd want to back them. Derek curR
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: and Dennis Allen are terrible as favorites.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: No, I hate it. I hate everything about it. That's
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: why we got to do it though. That's what I
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: think we talked about on Tuesday, where it's like, who
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: doesn't want to bet Minnesota? It's a fun story, this
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: guy Dobbs. I told you it's all fun and good chat,
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: but I haven't gave us an amazing stat This guy
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: is one in nine straight up and his last ten
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: start stops like he is. There's a reason this man's
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: been on fourteen teams now and you know whatever it
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: is the last calendar year. The guy's a gamer. Like,
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna I'm not trying to shit on him,
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: but what can I do? I have to do it, Chad,
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: this guy just had the win of his life. Like
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: they just had this crazy emotional win. Now they're coming
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: home and playing against the Saints team that Chad just
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: you just said it, right. They got lucky. They didn't
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: play that great of a game.
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: Terrible.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: I feel the other way. I feel like they got
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: crazy unlucky. They had a missed field goal, they had
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: all these all these times down your guys red zone
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: where you know they they didn't come away with points.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: And you know, the big thing for me though this
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: the Saints team is the offense has found something here
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: at the Taysom Hill. The the problem I mean the
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: Saints was was the Chris Raybund stat about Derek Carr
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: in the red zone. He is the worst red zone
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: quarterback starter we've ever seen make like a minimum one
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: hundred starts. He is horrible, and I didn't know those
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: splits for that bad. Chris told us whatever that was
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: in August, and I went and looked and it's it's factual.
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: Like Derek Carr is one of the worst red zone
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks ever. Know who's one of the best scoring red
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: zone quarterbacks ever, Chad Taysom Hill. Like it's it's crazy,
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: but it's going to change, yes, and shout out to
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: my guy, Baldy. Baldy breakdowns. He's basically in old school
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: O lineman who breaks down.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I know Brian Baldinger. People should know who Brian Baldinger is.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is for the fans, not the esteemed in
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: media for thirty years Chad.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Millman, I mean all fans should.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: But yeah, basically he's showing film. They're running plays. The
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: Saints are running plays with Taysom Hill quarterback from nineteen
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: thirty two. Like I'm not joking, Like you can. They
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: put it out side by side film footage of them
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: running this quarterback run where the quarterback basically is back
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: there with the full back next to them. They break
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: out running to the left and it's literally this playoffs
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: from the nineteen thirties and it's working right. They're picking
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: up eight nine yards a trunk against a lot of
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: these defenses because they run what everyone runs the league now,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: which is a two linebacker Look right, they're going four
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: and down linemen, two linebackers, and the rest are dbs.
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: That's a huge advantage for New Orleans Saints and Taysom Hill, right,
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: if he can do that in those games, they found
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: something there, and I think this past week he had
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: a rushing touchdown and had a receiving touchdown in the
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: red zone. That's a big deal to the Saints team,
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: especially against a Vikings defense that's horrible, Like this is
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: a defense that gives up a lot of yards and
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: a lot of points. I know that, you know, people
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: might still think back to that Vikings against the forty
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: nine ers game, how well they played and everything like that.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it's not throwing me off the stank of
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: this Vikings defense.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: I'm with you, Chad.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: If this in our contest is three and a half,
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't do it. But my view is if this
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: is two and a half in the contest, I don't
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: know how I don't get it in there. It's just
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: it's scary. All the Derek carrs, Dennis Allen. They're horrible
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: as favorites, both of them. They're horrible as favorites. This year,
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: they've been horrible as favorites. I forget what week it was.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Me and Chad had the Saints versus Green Bay and
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: we had the plus one and a half on the Saints,
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: and Chad just talked about by by game time the
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: line had flipped and the Saints from minus two and
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: a half the game lands on one. And yeah, I
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: know Derek Carr got hurt in the game, anything like that.
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: But Chad talks all the time about, you know, how
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: lucky sometimes we get and we do not lucky, but
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: how important the best number is and I push it,
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: I push it back against it sometimes. But right there
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: he nailed it, Like we got lucky, landed on the
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: one and a half. We take it earlier in the week.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: That's the only fear here with me, is what Chad's
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: talking about. Like the numbers moved a lot. That's not
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: good historically, especially when you have a guy like Dennis Allen,
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: Derek Carr, Like that's just bad. So I'm not.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: Gonna make it.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: Our bigs ball is better the week, even though it
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: feels like it's taking the most balls because I hate
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: those stats. Like Chad said, I had confidence in this
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: game until he started hitting with these stats from Evan.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: God damn, but I gotta do it.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: Dobbs, dobbs, this should be three and a half, like
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: the Vikings team is just there's not this. This line
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: feels inflated because they had this incredible last second win.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, if they would have lost that game, Chad,
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: it came down to one or two players. If they
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: would have lost that game, what is this number? Is
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: it three and a half? Is it four? So it
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: just feels like I have to take the Saints value
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: not to overthink this one and again, if this is
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: two and a half, I'm gonna get my hands on
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: Chad's I'm gonna say, we gotta get this in and
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: we'll see what he.
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: Does with it.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: We haven't done big balls, we haven't done Foxhole. There's
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: a couple more games that we got to discuss. Okay,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I do I do kind of feel like we should
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: make the Browns big balls because clearly it's taking big balls.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: No, Chad, don't do it, and we can do it,
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: but you got to wear it. I don't know what
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: to do with that one?
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: When when am I afraid to wear it? When have
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: I ever been afraid to take on the mantle of responsibility?
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: My whole life is responsibility.
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: It's just I mean, you took it a five and
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: a half. It's up to six and a half. Like
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: I know, I told you, if you're really believe in yourself,
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: you believe in the number, go against it.
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: But I don't know.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: Man, It's November now, Chad.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: What happened to you and my guy? I support you?
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: What happened to that guy?
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: I'm supporting you. I didn't bet. I didn't back the Ravens.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: I'm not telling people take the Ravens. I'm trying to
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to protect our fames.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, all right, let's finish it. We're
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: going to put a pin in this one because we
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: do have to choose one. But we'll finish it and
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: see if there's something else that we can agree on signing.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Let me ask you this. Can you name the fastest
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: Game Time?
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsor this show. Number Two,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: pro and college football games, speaking of which, I'm actually
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: going to open game Time right now from my house. Well,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the truth is I'm doing it from our studio here
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: in Copenhagen, all right.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: The truth is.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not even opening it right now because I can't
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: because we can't access game Time in Copenhagen. But I cheated,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: and before we came out on the air, I checked.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: You can get into a Chicago Bears football game tonight
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: for less than eighty five bucks. That's right, I checked.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: My favorite city in the world to watch my favorite team.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Will break somebody's heart no.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Matter where you live.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Download the game Time app, get out and have some
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: fun this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: First purchase terms apply again. Just download the app and
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: enterko Favorites for twenty dollars off. That's myen ticket's lowest
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: price guarantee. For the record, I took the Packers Steelers
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: game off our list because I think we're both a
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: little scooped by not just the sharp action coming in
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: on the Packers, but the Luck Rankings, which is just
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a bad Tomlin spot. It's Kenny Pickett,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: it's the Packers getting all the sharp action. It's Luck
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Rankings loving the Packers in this spot.
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: I took that first half under, first half under.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Actually Raybund talked about Raybund last week on the Action
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Net Were Podcast, talked about the Packers and Rams under
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: nineteen and a half and on today's episode his favorite
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: total Steelers and Packers under nineteen and a half. Simon
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: just said to you, I mean, you didn't proably don't
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: hear the show, but you guys are spatoco, So yeah,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: just do that. I'm taking the Lions out because I
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: think that number is probably gonna be a three and
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: a half. So we probably won't want to do that
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: because it will have moved too much. What about what
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: about Tennessee in the Bucks, It's like it's plus one.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: It's not a great number. Yeah, it's a raable spot. Uh.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: The Bucks defense passing defense is terrible. We've seen enough
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: from Levis against a good defense and a bad defense.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: I think that he's serviceable at least but we'll running
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: around of options here.
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: I got I can get you. I can get you
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: there if we need five. If you don't feel confident, five,
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: I got five.
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: I do believe him.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: But yeah, if Tennessee is one of your games, man,
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: we can get in there. I just got no read
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: on it, Like I.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Don't don't want it to be one of my games.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: But we did talk about it last week, and we've
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: eliminated some other games that we were feeling good about.
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna lie though, I still
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: feel good about Pittsburgh. But I get where you're coming from.
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: But yeah, this this one, you.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Know, here's my thing. If Pittsburgh's a two and a
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: half in the contest, I'm with you. I just I
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: feel like they're gonna make it three and a half.
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, No, Honestly, the part I hate about it
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: is just how much money has come in. All the
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: all the tickets, all the bets are on Pittsburgh. And
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: like you said, you know, I saw it pop at
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: three and a half Monday morning, and then some real
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: sharp money came in and hit it down to three
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: and now it's just been holding there three all week.
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: Never ideal if you're you're for betting a favorite. But yeah, this,
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: this Tennessee, This Tennessee game feels like the New England game. Right,
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: New England are playing the Colts in Germany. It feels
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: like I should be back in New England. And this
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: feels the same here with Tennessee, where it's like we
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: have a coaching advantage in Tennessee. Right, he is much
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: better than Todder Bowles and we're catching Tennessee here after
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: a loss and now extended rest, which you know, I
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: think Evan gave us a stat earlier in the year
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: about Vrabel with extended rest. I believe it was that
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: it was favorable towards Rabel will Levis, you know, as
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: much as I want to give the kid a hard
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: time because how lucky he got in his first start
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: that game against Pittsburgh, he made some throws that you know,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: we've never seen Zach, I guess that's not fair to
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: Zach Wilson. I hate beating up on him, but it's
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: just a classic. You know, you know when you know, right,
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: when you see a kid out there, you kind of
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: know what they're gonna be, right. I have no idea
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: if what love is gonna be a good quarterback. But
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: I know he's given himself at least three years now,
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: like where Tennessee will give him three years now. Because
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: these last two starts, the fact they're already sitting Tannehill,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: that's a big deal. Like the fact that he's healthy
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: and they've already said no, like we're riding with Will
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: the rest of the season, that's a big deal. Like
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: the kid's clearly shown something are rabel in their front office,
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: So I guess I'll get there with you, Chad.
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: It's just.
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: I just hate the number. It's like if this was
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: two and a half auto play automatic play contest, it
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: would be one and a half, which again we like
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: rambles a dog. It's just not crazy great.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Value contest might be a half to be honest.
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: So again, yeah, that's true.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Again, there's there's games here we're gonna look and after
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: the show we're gonna we're gonna look at them.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Washington at Seattle minus six. I know where you're here.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: From the wise guys, we know Ron Rivera is really
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: good against the spread as an underdog. Sam Howell, second
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: in the NFL in passing yards this year, has more
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: touchdown passes than Justin Herbert Dak Prescott or Jared Goff.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: I know what the wise guys are saying. This is
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: a Seattle spot. You back the team that just got
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: demolished teams to lose by twenty points or more of
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: the previous week, facing a team that didn't sixty against
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: the spreads in north of one hundred in almost one
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty games since twenty twenty. This is not
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: a small sample. This is not a good Washington team.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Don't forget. It's a team that beat the Patriots, had
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: a nice little dead cat bounce after losing Chase Young
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: and Montes sweat. You come back down to earth when
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: you're traveling across the country playing a team that is
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: better than you that just got demolished there. I don't
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: want to overthink this.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna fight you on it. I had
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: no real opinion on it. I just thought the number
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: was fishy, and then I kind of liked Washington and
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: I didn't get why this was in seven. There are
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: some sevens popping up at a couple of books, which
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: makes me feel a little better if Chad likes Seattle
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: this much. But I don't know what to deal with it,
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: Like I just think I think Seattle's defense are kind
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: of fraudulent, man, And that's a big it's a big number,
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: Like you have to dominate a team to cover this number, right,
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: this is this is a big number. And especially if
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: it's seven like that, that's crazy. There's some sevens out
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: there popping. So yeah, I'm looking in the app right now,
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: all the tickets, all the money, it's it's all Seattle.
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: I think everyone's in agreement with you that Washington got
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: They got their big road win. They don't need back
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: to back ones, right, They're not gonna be the Hungary's
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: team in the world, but I view them as they
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: got lucky. Like Sam Hobbe did not play well last
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: week against the Patriots, and you know that was kind
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: of a mac Jones gave him that win, right, He
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: made these big mistakes. He kept screwing up on crucial
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: downs that kept Washington in that game. So I want
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: to get there with you chat on Seattle. It's just
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: it's just tough for me right now.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: I just when you say to me, when you say
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: to me you want to get there, I feel like
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: you're there. And there's a little bit of wise guy
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: community in the back of your head, and I feel
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: like we're gonna get there. When we're staring at the
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: numb and we know what's in front of us, We're
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: going to get there. You know where else We're going
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: to get there. Denver Broncos plus seven and a half
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: against the Buffalo Bills.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: What do you want to do with this one? You
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: love this one that much.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: I don't understand why you don't.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: Because this feels too easy. This number does not make sense.
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: This number should be six.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Why hasn't this line moved? It's another one.
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: It's moving, it's moving. I literally just texted the air
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: Runners have you seen any you see? Are you still
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: seeing sevens out there? And he just texted me back.
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: So a couple of books have obviously moved this to seven.
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it says in the app yet,
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: but yeah, it's number does not make sense. The Bills
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: are so banged up defensively. You know, Josh Allen is
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: having to be what he is, which is a top
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: three quarterback, just to keep them in these games. I
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: know people don't think it. They're like, well, Josh Allen's
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: been bad this year. If you go look at it.
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: They're I think they're fourth DVLA in a weighted offensive
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: adjustment like this, this team has played really well offensively
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: despite the turnovers from Josh Allen and you know, some
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: some crazy stat like because he runs the ball, he
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: accounts for like seventy five percent of their total offense
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: this season, which this is exactly what they didn't want.
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: This is exactly what he didn't want himself. It's just
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: you can't last the full season. Like, I just don't
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: know how he's gonna last playing this way. And Chad
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: talked about a Denver's defense has been much better than
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: people perceive these last couple of weeks and maybe, you.
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: Know, maybe we put too much into.
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: Mahomes having the flu, right, Like I kind of dismissed
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: a little bit, which I should know, of this Denver
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: defense and how well they played against the Chiefs. You know,
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: that was probably a little too harsh. But yeah, I
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: just I don't get this number. It's it's stinked. Why
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: are they giving a seven and a half. I say
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: all the time, the books are not our friends, but
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: maybe they're just misjudging the Stummer And Chad's right, and
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: like we have to take the value here, But are
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: we really gonna wait until another Monday for our picks?
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: I hated that this week with those are the jets
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: we had.
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: On the Monday night. That was just too much. So yeah,
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: it's all fun and good seeing. We'll take it here,
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: but I don't know if I can do it again. Wait,
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: wait until the Monday night with it. It's too much day.
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: Come Monday, you know we're going to be singing.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Just another manic Monday. Wish it was Sunday. All right,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: well we'll talk about that one.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: You really like that Denver one though.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: I do. I do, But I also love the Browns.
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: So you love these road dogs you don't like Washington.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: Interesting, Well, I think there's such a difference. Washington's not
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: a very good team. I like a road dog that
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: has been that's true.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: That has the most dominant not just defensive player, one
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: of the most dominant players in the division.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: With a great defense.
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: We have more line changing.
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: The Bears are now back up almost at every book
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: the three and a half, So the pro the pros
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: like the Bears.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: All right, we need a big balls, my friend and
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: so in Foxhole and a foxhole to me like we
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: have so many options.
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: Because we didn't talk about a game. I'm shocked you
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: didn't talk about which one.
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: The goddamn Jets.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Let's make the Jets big balls, big ball better the week.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: Or as they say in Danish store, NASA suffer.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: Jets are now plus one at our sponsored book bet
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: three six five. So I told the people who was
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: going to do it. I'm obviously not static right now.
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: There they have another offensive lineman might miss this game,
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: and that is nightmare fuel for Max Crosby and thinking
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: about what he can do this offensive line. But oh man,
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: how do we not back this Jets defense against the
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: Raiders offense? Right, Aidan O'Connell. We've seen these quarterbacks struggle
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: against this Jets defense, and you assume more of the same, right,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: And what do you keep saying?
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: The dead count, dead cat.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: Bounce, dead cat bounce, cat bounce.
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: So that was last week, right, The Raiders had that
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: high of highs, and just like the Vikings, I'm kind
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: of expecting a big letdown and you know, we could
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: get caught here. Right, The Raiders could still have some
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: incredible momentum that's still carrying them, and the Jets could
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: be completely defeated after that game, and it's a short week,
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: they're traveling, and I get a lot of the pushback
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: we've gotten from the fans of the show this past
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: week about the Jets team, But how do.
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: You not love them?
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: People Like, this is a team that you know they had,
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: They were the most, they were the unluckiest team in football.
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: This past week we gave that stat no team had
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: ever lost by twenty when they held a team's offense
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: under two hundred yards. And you know, this is just
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: it's hard for me, honestly, Like I don't want to
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: be taking this either with this Jets team, but I
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: got to stick true to what I believe in and
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: that this is an overreaction too much line movement towards
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: the Raiders. The Jets should be favored in this game.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: So the fact that now it's it's popping the plus
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: one if you want a way to understand it, because
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: I could, I could totally see this keep going up,
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: especially with the injury news we just got about the Jets.
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: But I don't know, Chad, if this is one and
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: a half in contest, how is this not end up
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: as one of our five? This is just such such
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: crazy movement for this game. And you know, Evan gave
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: us that stat. These these teams that go from being
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: the dog to the favorites, it's historically not good for him.
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: So it'll be nice for us for the one time
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: to be on the side of these dogs. So yeah,
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: I like the Jets here.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: Speaking of which, we still need a foxhole. I think
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Denver should be the foxhole. There's one other game that
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: can be the foxhole, but which is New Orleans.
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: That is fox sanguage.
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: Let's see, it is still minus two and a half
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: at bet three six five the Saints.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna We're gonna lose that game because of
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: all because it's Dennis Allen, is Derek Carr, it's all
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: the trends against us.
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: We can make the foxhole.
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: We're gonna have to pick one. You're gonna have to
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: have the Saints in or the Jets. And I know
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: you hate it, but one of these are gonna be
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: one our five.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, it's so much rather to put the
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: Jets in.
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: All right, better coach.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: With a great defense against a really bad team that
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: no Taysom Hell though, no Taysom Hill. We don't have
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: a nineteen thirty two offense.
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: It's tough week.
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: You picked a bad to go to copenhang and chat.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: I need you hear in the States.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: What does that have to do with anything.
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: I'm just joking. It's the same people giving me a
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: shit for being in Hawaii. That was my favorite thing
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: in week one. People are like you and Chad don't
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: care anymore. You're You're living a big in Hawaii. It's like, guys,
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: all I do in my free time is play poker
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: and risk. There's nothing exciting going on here in Hawaii.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: Like you don't want to know what I'm doing during
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: the season.
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: So all right, listen, how about this Jaguars foxhil.
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: Foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: a city.
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: I'm a Foxhole guy.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Great done, Jaggs Is we both love that one. Yeah,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: Jaggs is the Foxhole Jets is big balls.
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: We got there.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: Simon and I typically enter our initial picks into the
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: contest website on Thursdays after the show, So if you
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: want to see the unofficial picks we've entered in the
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: contest before they lock, you can just go to the
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: website for the contest favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com search
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: for the faveseline.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: That's us.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: We typically have these picks in by Thursday night before
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: we get to the line. Underdog Round Robin, the week
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: ten contest tiebreaker total passing yards on Monday night Football.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Billy Ward, our Action Network Predicted analyst writes a weekly
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: article about typebreater strategy, and a link to that article
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: can be found in this episode description. If you want
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: a leg up in the contest, good luck. Here's what
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: I think should be our money line Underdog Round Robin.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: Are you ready?
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: Dog blocks your dog? Your dog blocks dog?
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Jags love it, Jets love it, Browns love it.
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: How about Mannesota?
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: All right? And then I was gonna say the Broncos.
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: Who that would be fucking crazy. Yeah, I'll go with
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: you on that. That's fun. Denver, dude.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: I know, like, I'm so sad for Matt Mitchell because
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: he'll be tired, but.
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: I can't I can't see it, but I'll back it
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: and I'll bet it because it's fun.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: Let's make Let's make Little Caesars, which is the pizza
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: sponsor in the NFL. Part of your game day, Simon,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: were in mid November. This Thanksgiving, should everyone start replacing
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: Turkey with Little Caesars Pizza? Yes, order online during our
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: Pizza Pizza pre game one hour before NFL games and
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. She's your favorite
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: Little Caesar's Pizza or pick the topics you crave. My friend, Simon,
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: what do you think about this new motto I just invented.
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: It's on the fly.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: If pizza fills your heart with lust, be sure to
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: order Crazy Crust. However you order your pizza, you win.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: our in.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends and enjoy
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: a few slices during the game. It's the Survivorpool pick
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: of the week.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: Last week we did the Browns and the Saints for Survivor.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: Have we done Seattle?
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: I have done Seattle. Yeah, we've We've had a great run.
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: This week.
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: You know lines up perfectly for us. We still got Dallas.
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: Like I didn't use Dallas the Cardinals. A lot of
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: people got knocked out. That did. If you've been following
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: us every week and you're still with me.
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: I'm feeling good.
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: This year, Like usually, I don't feel great about the
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: survivor pools. Uh, if you've been following the season, We've
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: used the Giants, We've used Washington, we used the Browns,
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: we use the Chargers, we use Seattle, and we use
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: the Bills. It feels so good knowing don't have to
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: use those teams again, especially the Bills, Like it's great
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: to know we already got that done with so easy
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: week layup. Pick Dallas, man, if you've got to make
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: a tough choice, I mean, Chad's not crazy saying Seattle
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: like Houston. I mean Houston. Uh, They're not as desperate
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: Washington in that game, right, Seattle is gonna be the
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: more desperate team at home.
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: They need that win.
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: Don't hate Chad using that as a as a as
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: a as a throwing because it is a tough week.
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: If you don't have Dallas, your only real options are
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: Cincy against the rook or Seattle, And that's tough.
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: I looked at it since he thinking.
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: About using them, just because you know they are in
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: the best division of football right now and this this
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: would be technically a really nice spot to take Cincy.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: But if you've been founding this show for three four years.
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: Every year me and Chad lose on Dallas and we
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: always lose in these exact scenarios. How is this possible?
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: How is I'm trying to figure out a way Tommy
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: DeVito ruins this for me and I just can't find it.
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: Dallas coming off a loss at home against this kid.
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: You gotta do with people?
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: What do you say in Dallas for you have to
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: use them this week if you still got them?
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: Or Seattle by a million? Hey signing? What what are
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: your biggest bets this week?
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm embarrassed to say it, but one of
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: them right now is the Lions. Like I heavily invested
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: in that I want one and a half half to
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: two and a half. Heavily invested in Cincy? Uh? Shit, man?
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: What is wrong with me this week? Have a decent
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: amount on the Jaguars A plus three that's more more normal. Uh,
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: have a way too much money I care to admit
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: on New Orleans of minus two and a half.
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: And I was Pittsburgh was gonna be one of those.
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: But again our guy Nick when he gave me those
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: luck rankings, I'm with Chad, it's not good. It's not
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: the end all be all for me, but it does
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: make me stop and Paul's because it is profitable and
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: we've seen the data that it wins long term the
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: luck rankings. So I wanted to fade Green Bay so
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: bad after that win and Jordan Love on the road.
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: It's all sitting there, but I'm gonna I'm gonna be
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: trying to be smart, not go overboard and go crazy
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: on the Pittsburgh one. So yeah, that's that's no longer.
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: One of my bigger bets of the.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Week as a reminder of the favorite podcast, is presented
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: by bet three six five three Ordinary. That's why you
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: to give you a chance to win more. Bet three
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: sixty five boost specific markets you're winnings and even parlays,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: and they don't stop there. Keep an eye out for
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: Check out the boosts and see why it's never ordinary
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Virginia or eighteen and older. In Kentucky gambling problem call
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: In Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply. Before we get out
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: of here, the last word from Evan Abrams, our director
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: of research, the engine behind the stats and nuggets you
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: hear on the show across our network.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Take it away, Evan.
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: We're finished talking up, guys.
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: So I just got to apologize before I go into
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: this because you know a lot of stats that.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: We go through.
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: Me and our producer Matt Mitchell trying to figure out
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: what to go with here, and I'm not going to
• 59:06
  Speaker 5: change it. I've heard everything that's happened in this show,
• 59:08
  Speaker 5: so you guys are just gonna have to hear the
• 59:09
  Speaker 5: stat So this is just another beautiful Dennis Allen spot.
• 59:13
  Speaker 5: And I'm sorry, but the Saints may not have covered,
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: but they did win last week, which would mean that
• 59:19
  Speaker 5: Dennis Allen coach teams are three fourteen and two against
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: the spread coming off a straight off winning their last game.
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: That would make him one hundred and thirty eighth of
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: one hundred and forty two coaches against the spread in
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: the last twenty years. He's actually also five and one
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: against the spread in that spot this year as a favorite.
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: I'm sorry, I was this guy ahead coach so bad.
• 59:41
  Speaker 5: Here's the thing though, The funny thing that's funny about
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: is Minnesota just come up one like the most emotional
• 59:45
  Speaker 5: wins you could possibly have in the regular season ever,
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: so it's kind of works both ways there. But we'll
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: see if maybe New Orleans by a field goal, by
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: one by two, we'll see hopefully they come through for
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: you guys. Uh, favorites. You guys talked about it earlier
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: in the show. We haven't really got into this as
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: much in this segment, but we will now. So seventy
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: one sixty to five favorites against the spread this year
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: through nine weeks, that is actually the best year for
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: favorites since twenty thirteen. Haven't really been an underlying storyline
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: this year with favorites. The average line for a favorite
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 5: this year minus four point eight points, So that would
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 5: be the lowest full year for favorites in the wildcard era.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: So we've never seen the line this low for favorites
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: at only minus four point eight points, and that since
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 5: nineteen eighty. Wow, So just a very different NFL. And
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: then I'll leave you with this one. This is actually
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: a really really crazy stat. When I get blown away
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: by something, I like to pass it along. So Jacksonville
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: and San Francisco, Buffalo and Denver both games this week
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: where both teams are on extended rest. When both teams
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 5: are on extended rest, which is eight days or more,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: the under is ninety nine forty seven and one. So
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: that's sixty eight p since twenty eighteen. That includes twenty
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 5: three and five this season. So that is Jacksonville and
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 5: San Francisco, Buffalo and Denver looking for where both teams
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: are on extended rest. Crazy run.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: I'm just glad you didn't say teams on extended rest.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: The underdog twenty seven percent against the spread since Taysom
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Hills started running the football in nineteen thirty two. All right,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: here we go to recap. Jacksonville plus three is the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: Foxhole the big balls better the week is the New
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: York Jets plus one.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: Two store NASA Suffield's only bit.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: Exec decision Cleveland plus six. Simon says Cincinnati minus six
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: and six and a half. The round robin Jacksonville, New
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: York Jets, Cleveland Minnesota, Denver. We had to lock in
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: five right now. I wrote this down before the show.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: It felt like it was so easy. I wrote Jacksonville, Brown's, Bengals, Seattle, Denver.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: But it feels like we're not going to find consensus
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: on all.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: Of the dream five.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: It was before the show, it was my my five.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: God damn, I think we can agree.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: We want to keep Jacksonville in there. I want to
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: keep the Bengals in there. If if it's at six
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: and a half, I would be comfortable keeping the Broncos
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: in there and waiting for Monday night to determine our fate.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: You feel strongly about the Jets and the and the Saints.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: I feel really strongly about the Browns. So which do
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: you feel more strongly about? The Jets are the Saints?
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, you asked me this after Evan just ripped
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: my heart out of the Saints pic.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Uh, because it's terrible, But I'm with you because you're
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: my good.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: I'm the professional. M ME wants to say, you take
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: the Jets here, but no, I'm I'm fucked man. I
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: like this Saints way too much. It's it's a it's
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: a it's a problem. Uh give me the Saints if
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: it's two and a half in the contest.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: The Saints are like the Giants for us, where we
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: couldn't resist the Giants last year and they hurt us
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: every single time. All right, then I think our five
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: is going to be We'll look at the numbers Jack's Jacksonville, Brown's, Bengals,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Saints and Broncos.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: But we'll see feels like it, all right.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: Remember, Simon and I will be back with our week
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: ten recap episode we have in the Action We YouTube
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: page this Sunday, Every Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Don't forget sign up RSVP to our live event December
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: third in Hoboken, New Jersey. Description contains the RSVP link.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: Doors will open at four pm. Simon and I go
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: live with the show at seven point thirty.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: You're gonna hang out with us. You're gonna watch the games.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: We're gonna bet on bet three sixty five The Shepherd
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead on will And at Willow Avenue in Hoboken,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, December third. Please go RSVP free event. We're
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: not asking you to pay for anything. Um download us
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: and we US five stars say whatever you want.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Till Sunday night at seven thirty Eastern.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: Love You.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler