Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Iran Peace Deal Rallies Crypto Market!🚀Caution?⚠️
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Is money starting to flow in and the deals are
- 0:03Speaker 1: starting to change up everything in the market. We'll talk
- 0:05Speaker 1: about that today. Let's get started. I want to thank
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- 1:02Speaker 1: tweet right here, and this will kind of explain some
- 1:05Speaker 1: of the deals that are starting to happen the four
- 1:07Speaker 1: point Trump Iran peace deal. This is coming in from JD. Bance.
- 1:11Speaker 1: The deal would be essentially blocking I Ran from obtaining
- 1:14Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon, reopen the straight, lift the US naval blockade,
- 1:18Speaker 1: and then unlock major investments across the regions. So this
- 1:21Speaker 1: has agreed upon in an MoU. It's called a memorandum
- 1:25Speaker 1: of understanding. Typically in business, this is almost as good
- 1:29Speaker 1: as an agreement. Usually it means that you can't really
- 1:32Speaker 1: kind of renegotiate anything. It's kind of outlining certain elements
- 1:36Speaker 1: within the deal. I have never done an MoU that
- 1:39Speaker 1: an agreement did not come out of. Now that doesn't
- 1:42Speaker 1: mean that that won't happen here because we're still talking
- 1:45Speaker 1: about Iran in the US. So let me know what
- 1:48Speaker 1: you guys think. Is this a real potential going into
- 1:51Speaker 1: a peace deal? Chips of the world start your engines.
- 1:54Speaker 1: Let the oil flow is to be one of the
- 1:55Speaker 1: funniest things. I would agree that he is on top
- 1:59Speaker 1: of it. Maybe, but again, we have been rug pulled
- 2:02Speaker 1: a little bit on many times when we've done a deal.
- 2:05Speaker 1: The one caveat here is that now we're getting at
- 2:08Speaker 1: least some verification from Iran that a deal may be
- 2:11Speaker 1: in order, and if we do get this MoU enacted,
- 2:15Speaker 1: Getting this done on a long term basis could be
- 2:19Speaker 1: good for the markets. And of course remember this deal
- 2:22Speaker 1: right now has about a sixty day run rate to
- 2:25Speaker 1: get done. When you look at USO prices, they're already
- 2:28Speaker 1: pricing it in right now at eighty one a barrel,
- 2:30Speaker 1: and this of course is after the announcement and an
- 2:33Speaker 1: immediate drop into the eighty dollars a barrel range. And
- 2:36Speaker 1: of course this will start to affect energy prices, which
- 2:38Speaker 1: will affect what we'll see in terms of inflation. But
- 2:43Speaker 1: we have to see it at the pump guys. That's
- 2:45Speaker 1: where you'll see Americans saying, yes, we agree, it's starting
- 2:49Speaker 1: to ease up on the pump price. And that is
- 2:51Speaker 1: a key thing for what's going to happen around midterms.
- 2:54Speaker 1: If they don't get these prices for gas down, that
- 2:58Speaker 1: creates a big problem I think Trump that going forward
- 3:01Speaker 1: for sure. If you look at some of the key
- 3:04Speaker 1: things here, as I said, the sixty day negotiation period
- 3:07Speaker 1: for a lot of these technical discussions, discussions around the
- 3:10Speaker 1: nuclear program, which I imagine is going to be the
- 3:13Speaker 1: big sticking point that, of course, will be the thing
- 3:17Speaker 1: to watch whether or not we actually get that into
- 3:20Speaker 1: the sixty day program. I'm still a bit skeptical on
- 3:25Speaker 1: that of it actually becoming, but getting Iran to the
- 3:28Speaker 1: table is a feat in itself, so kudos to what
- 3:31Speaker 1: they've been able to do so far. I want to
- 3:33Speaker 1: go to a clip because this is where Vance talks
- 3:35Speaker 1: a little bit about this. Take a look.
- 3:37Speaker 2: This is sixty days that they will have to kind
- 3:39Speaker 2: of discuss and debate the issues surrounding the nuclear question.
- 3:43Speaker 2: But for now, they are saying that they will reopen
- 3:46Speaker 2: the Straight. The United States is saying it will take
- 3:49Speaker 2: down its blockade at the same time that there will
- 3:53Speaker 2: be free passage, that no one will have to pay
- 3:55Speaker 2: anything to go back and forth through this. The Iranians,
- 3:57Speaker 2: i think, have suggested that this is just for the
- 4:00Speaker 2: next sixty days. Do you get the sense that this
- 4:02Speaker 2: is a more permanent situation where the Strait will be
- 4:05Speaker 2: reopened even beyond that sixty day period.
- 4:10Speaker 3: Well, our expectation is that the Strait is going to
- 4:11Speaker 3: be opened in a toll free way for the long term,
- 4:14Speaker 3: and that's the sort of thing that we're going to
- 4:16Speaker 3: figure out in these technical negotiations, you know that there
- 4:18Speaker 3: are a lot of very important details to figure out
- 4:21Speaker 3: that we're actually going to sit at the table and
- 4:23Speaker 3: discuss together and figure out a path forward on these details.
- 4:29Speaker 1: That is, I mean the way that vance to explain that.
- 4:32Speaker 1: I think that's a little bit more promising because if
- 4:35Speaker 1: they're willing to negotiate in person or get in these
- 4:38Speaker 1: in these negotiations in some format to where they're willing
- 4:42Speaker 1: to maybe give on both sides, that could end up
- 4:45Speaker 1: being very good for the market. Now, remember that the
- 4:49Speaker 1: number one thing that this market has had hanging over
- 4:52Speaker 1: it has been the oil supply shock that could potentially
- 4:56Speaker 1: be at play, and we have pretty much kind of
- 4:59Speaker 1: run out of that supply narrative. And I think Mohammad
- 5:03Speaker 1: Ala Rain talks about this perfectly. Take a look and.
- 5:08Speaker 4: With SpaceX sticking the landing on Friday, are those enough
- 5:13Speaker 4: of clearing events to go back to pre war playbooks.
- 5:18Speaker 5: Had we persisted with this, we would have got demand destruction.
- 5:22Speaker 5: And when you get demand destruction, credit risk goes up.
- 5:26Speaker 5: So I think we might have avoided a bullet here
- 5:30Speaker 5: by not going to the next stage of demand destruction.
- 5:33Speaker 5: In the US, you know in some developing countries. Unfortunately
- 5:36Speaker 5: that has happened already and you're seeing demand destruction.
- 5:39Speaker 3: We have it.
- 5:41Speaker 5: Our economy remains incredibly resilient, So keep an eye on it.
- 5:45Speaker 4: Wors's first meeting this week, what we might get out
- 5:47Speaker 4: of the dots, and whether or not this MoU Mohammad
- 5:51Speaker 4: kind of quiets whatever hawkish concerns there might have been
- 5:54Speaker 4: if it hadn't come along.
- 5:56Speaker 5: I think it does. I think the tone will be
- 5:59Speaker 5: less focused and otherwise, but call to be a fly
- 6:03Speaker 5: on the wall. It chairs first meeting, the previous chair
- 6:08Speaker 5: sitting there, a highly divided committee going in. It must
- 6:12Speaker 5: be a fascinating two days in the room.
- 6:16Speaker 1: I would say Muhammed is right, It's going to be
- 6:18Speaker 1: a fascinating two days in the room in terms of
- 6:21Speaker 1: FOMC will be going live on that right this week.
- 6:25Speaker 1: What I would recommend for you guys is make sure
- 6:27Speaker 1: and subscribe to the channel right now. Hit the bell
- 6:30Speaker 1: that's going to give you a notification. And what I
- 6:33Speaker 1: have noticed is that there's been some complaint out there.
- 6:35Speaker 1: Even when you're subscribed, sometimes our second video you don't
- 6:37Speaker 1: get notified of it. So make sure and get that
- 6:40Speaker 1: in there because it'll give you the notification of US
- 6:42Speaker 1: going live. That's usually a very good video to watch
- 6:47Speaker 1: in understanding the forward looking statements coming in from the
- 6:51Speaker 1: FED chair. Granted it could probably be a little bit
- 6:53Speaker 1: different with worsh than what we've seen which chair palel
- 6:56Speaker 1: in the past. But the one thing that is certain
- 6:58Speaker 1: at least right now, and that is FED rate hikes
- 7:01Speaker 1: are starting to fall from what was a sixty one
- 7:04Speaker 1: percent probability and have plummeted now down to a thirty
- 7:08Speaker 1: four percent chance, so cut in half almost in a
- 7:11Speaker 1: very short period of time. That's the one month chart
- 7:14Speaker 1: out look right there on polymarket. And remember this all
- 7:17Speaker 1: plays into inflation and possibly air cover for Kevin Walsh
- 7:23Speaker 1: in terms of being able to hold the rate and
- 7:26Speaker 1: or even look at a rate cut if in fact
- 7:28Speaker 1: we start to see things correct quickly. Because remember CPI
- 7:31Speaker 1: print were very very strong last week PPI same situation.
- 7:35Speaker 1: We have not seen those kind of inflation numbers. This
- 7:38Speaker 1: is a very critical critical time, not only for the
- 7:41Speaker 1: FED but also for the US, and of course at
- 7:44Speaker 1: that time you look at the rest of the market
- 7:47Speaker 1: and SpaceX is absolutely as they said earlier, sticking the
- 7:50Speaker 1: landing right here. Now, how can it hold? Is the
- 7:53Speaker 1: question mark? Because it extends, it's gain another ten percent
- 7:56Speaker 1: second day of trading here on Monday. Now we're two
- 7:59Speaker 1: point three three trillion and up to one seventy seven.
- 8:03Speaker 1: So let me know what you guys are doing. Are
- 8:05Speaker 1: you trading SpaceX right now or are you looking at
- 8:08Speaker 1: other assets that surround this because if you look at
- 8:11Speaker 1: the crypto market, and we'll show that in a second,
- 8:14Speaker 1: almost everything is up significantly, most likely because of the
- 8:19Speaker 1: deal that possibly is underway right now. The real question
- 8:22Speaker 1: is is whether or not this holds. And if you
- 8:24Speaker 1: guys think so, put yes in the comments down low.
- 8:28Speaker 1: If you don't think it's gonna hold this particular pump,
- 8:30Speaker 1: just put no. That'll give us some indication or where
- 8:33Speaker 1: you guys think this goes. But looking at this right here,
- 8:37Speaker 1: crypto is a little bit rugged because of what happened
- 8:40Speaker 1: right here on token is SpaceX orders A billion dollars
- 8:44Speaker 1: went unfilled in the biggest ipo in history, so that
- 8:49Speaker 1: included xdox, cracking back or finance bybit et cetera. Question
- 8:54Speaker 1: here I would ask you guys, is now what would
- 8:57Speaker 1: you do? Would you go into something I Robin Hood
- 9:00Speaker 1: or a traditional exchange now and completely avoid these kind
- 9:04Speaker 1: of things around, these kinds of volatile IPOs in the future.
- 9:09Speaker 1: I don't know, that's an interesting to watch. If you
- 9:11Speaker 1: look at Robin Hood the stock price, you can kind
- 9:13Speaker 1: of see an in cater right there. I want to
- 9:15Speaker 1: go to a clip real quick. This we'll get into
- 9:19Speaker 1: whether or not SpaceX can hold this momentum and can
- 9:25Speaker 1: you really believe that it's too good to be true?
- 9:28Speaker 1: Take a look.
- 9:30Speaker 6: Well, I don't know that it reminds me of Enron Tom,
- 9:32Speaker 6: but it reminds me of the n run timeframe. How's
- 9:35Speaker 6: that in that? I've always said that Wall Street has
- 9:38Speaker 6: a printing press too, just like the FED. It just
- 9:41Speaker 6: takes a while to get going. And one of the
- 9:43Speaker 6: things that I think SpaceX is ushering in in twenty
- 9:47Speaker 6: twenty six is massive equity issuance. And historically, without a doubt,
- 9:55Speaker 6: in the twentieth and twenty first century, anytime you have
- 9:58Speaker 6: seen massive IPO and secondaries relative to the size of
- 10:02Speaker 6: the market or the economy, investors generally have been advised
- 10:07Speaker 6: to be a little more cautious or reduce their risk.
- 10:10Speaker 5: You mentioned earlier the dot com bubble are we doing
- 10:13Speaker 5: dot com bubble two point zero right now?
- 10:14Speaker 6: Oh, this is much bigger.
- 10:17Speaker 1: Well, I agree that it's bigger than the dot com
- 10:20Speaker 1: bubble because a lot of those and I've talked about
- 10:22Speaker 1: this before, most of those companies that were brought public
- 10:26Speaker 1: in the dot com era, they literally had nothing except
- 10:29Speaker 1: an idea. There was no revenue. Many of these companies
- 10:32Speaker 1: coming public now, including what we'll see in the AI sector,
- 10:35Speaker 1: whether it's anthroptic or open AI, these are actually revenue generating.
- 10:39Speaker 3: Now.
- 10:39Speaker 1: Are they profit based? No, but most companies when they're
- 10:42Speaker 1: getting rolling are not profit based. Is probably I would
- 10:45Speaker 1: say maybe in excess of fifty percent of the companies
- 10:48Speaker 1: that are traded on the stocks that are not profitable,
- 10:51Speaker 1: and there are reasons for that because they're building equity
- 10:54Speaker 1: back into the way they're operating their business. So that's
- 10:57Speaker 1: a factor. I still am optimistically skeptical as to wheor
- 11:02Speaker 1: not SpaceX can continue to hold this run rate. I
- 11:06Speaker 1: think it does settle in and adjust pretty significantly. But listen,
- 11:09Speaker 1: there's gonna be some people that made somebody out there,
- 11:11Speaker 1: most of which were early investors, that are going to
- 11:14Speaker 1: be taking that exit strategy going forward. Let's talk about
- 11:19Speaker 1: the Clarity Act, because the key here right now has
- 11:22Speaker 1: been this July fourth idea of a deadline, and I
- 11:25Speaker 1: think everybody's been pointing at July fourth, because you know Trump,
- 11:29Speaker 1: he wants to be very bambostic on you know, to
- 11:32Speaker 1: do these kinds of big signings, and that this would
- 11:34Speaker 1: be kind of almost like Liberation Day for crypto. The
- 11:38Speaker 1: only problem is is that right now Tarott is reporting
- 11:40Speaker 1: that this could be logistically impossible. I tend to disagree
- 11:44Speaker 1: only in the sense that the Senate is all it
- 11:47Speaker 1: needs to go through. It's possible that we won't get
- 11:49Speaker 1: it passed. But if the Senate can get it done
- 11:53Speaker 1: by July fourth, and there's about ten days or so
- 11:56Speaker 1: that can still occur in June, then I think Trump
- 11:59Speaker 1: would claim victy on this because my understanding is he
- 12:03Speaker 1: probably feels that the House is going to rubber stamp
- 12:05Speaker 1: this going forward. And if you look at the Clarity odds,
- 12:08Speaker 1: they are inching up, but not by much. We're just
- 12:11Speaker 1: now back above fifty percent here as we look at
- 12:14Speaker 1: the weekly they're on poly markets. So that's one factor
- 12:18Speaker 1: to consider right now around Clarity. Other things, you've got
- 12:22Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the EU crypto firms now could
- 12:24Speaker 1: lose registration status. This is a bunch of crypto companies.
- 12:29Speaker 1: I looked at data on this just earlier this morning.
- 12:31Speaker 1: Over three thousand crypto companies. It's like less than two
- 12:34Speaker 1: hundred that have been implemented as fully registered and compliant
- 12:38Speaker 1: in the EU under these MEKA guidelines which are now
- 12:41Speaker 1: in force. So that's a big deal. I don't know
- 12:44Speaker 1: if it's going to be a massive issuance problem across
- 12:48Speaker 1: all of these companies that are mostly dealing probably with
- 12:52Speaker 1: more and large I should say, more active and larger markets,
- 12:56Speaker 1: which I would lean toward the Middle East and Asia
- 12:58Speaker 1: right now. South America I would say, maybe has a
- 13:01Speaker 1: similar track record in the EU with exception of the UK.
- 13:06Speaker 1: But definitely want something to watch for sure. Other issues
- 13:09Speaker 1: that are happening right now, and that is EU is
- 13:12Speaker 1: delisting Tether's USDT from license exchanges. That goes in effect
- 13:16Speaker 1: July first. That's a deadline that is underway, and this
- 13:20Speaker 1: is having an impact right there is the crypto market
- 13:24Speaker 1: cap for Tether in terms of overall and as you
- 13:28Speaker 1: can see, it has been sliding dramatically here in June.
- 13:33Speaker 1: So are you holding Tether right now will you continue
- 13:37Speaker 1: to hold Tether or is it something that you want
- 13:39Speaker 1: to reconstruct? And I think this is going to put
- 13:41Speaker 1: some pressure into Tether to really get things going. One
- 13:46Speaker 1: thing to kind of consider though, is that this is
- 13:48Speaker 1: starting to move into ETH based stable coins, and if
- 13:52Speaker 1: you look at based stable coins, you're probably going to
- 13:55Speaker 1: see ETH starting to see a movement here. And we
- 13:58Speaker 1: are seeing a considerable movement now almost ten percent on
- 14:01Speaker 1: the day right now, covering almost everything, with exception of XLM,
- 14:06Speaker 1: which has taken a twenty four percent move. But if
- 14:08Speaker 1: you look at most of the key assets right now,
- 14:10Speaker 1: It'salana up five percent right now, Eth holding it almost
- 14:14Speaker 1: ten percent. Bitcoin trading at sixty six k right now,
- 14:18Speaker 1: getting ready to go to sixty seven up about a
- 14:21Speaker 1: point and a half right now, but has been moving
- 14:24Speaker 1: over the last few days, and I think a lot
- 14:26Speaker 1: of this is really I think dependent on what's happening
- 14:29Speaker 1: in the Middle East. But I think where we really
- 14:31Speaker 1: start to see some movement is when and if Clarity
- 14:34Speaker 1: goes through, so be on the lookout for that. Tom
- 14:37Speaker 1: Lee is also on his way. He's literally at the
- 14:41Speaker 1: level of trying to grab the amount of ETH. He's
- 14:44Speaker 1: been looking for. So in eleven months he's grabbed it's
- 14:48Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the way to its it's five
- 14:50Speaker 1: percent target. That's pretty significant in less than a year
- 14:54Speaker 1: to be able to get that far into the target
- 14:57Speaker 1: that they've been striving for for some time. And he
- 15:01Speaker 1: is so confident that he's starting to launch his own
- 15:03Speaker 1: stretch version of his asset that will work as a
- 15:07Speaker 1: preferred and this of course coming in right now to
- 15:10Speaker 1: nine and a half percent preferred shares, which we'll begin
- 15:14Speaker 1: trading under BMNP. So right there, keep an eye on
- 15:19Speaker 1: that one. From that of what bitmin is doing. Let's
- 15:23Speaker 1: jump over to stretch because this of course is the
- 15:25Speaker 1: big one for bitcoin under micro strategy, and the other
- 15:29Speaker 1: thing that could be an interesting catalyst here because remember
- 15:32Speaker 1: dividend day is coming and this is the first time
- 15:35Speaker 1: that it has somewhat been deepegged, and that's interesting because
- 15:40Speaker 1: with stretch and where the market is, is it a
- 15:44Speaker 1: bye right now? Because remember they're trying to maintain stretch
- 15:48Speaker 1: as close to one hundred dollars per share as possible.
- 15:52Speaker 1: And remember this now gives you two dividend reward dates
- 15:56Speaker 1: in stretches cycle, so you can see, these are complicated
- 16:01Speaker 1: instruments that have been pretty much mastered, you know, Sailor mastered.
- 16:05Speaker 1: He said it just you know how they constructed it.
- 16:07Speaker 1: It had never been done before, but yet it was
- 16:10Speaker 1: still legal. Bitmine. On the other hand, you're talking about
- 16:14Speaker 1: a probably what twenty five year veteran of Wall Street
- 16:17Speaker 1: who understands this as well. But they're both betting on
- 16:20Speaker 1: one thing, and that is that these respective assets go up. Now,
- 16:25Speaker 1: Tom Lee, yes, he's sitting on an asset that's earning
- 16:28Speaker 1: in DeFi, so he's got a little bit of looseness there.
- 16:30Speaker 1: But you've got Sailor who's sitting on an asset that
- 16:33Speaker 1: has been consistently getting more gains each year. So it'll
- 16:38Speaker 1: be interesting to see how it plays out. Jack Mahler's
- 16:41Speaker 1: who's watching this from the sidelines, goes in and talks
- 16:45Speaker 1: about this. Take a look, and.
- 16:46Speaker 7: You referenced a question I asked yesterday. I'm trying to
- 16:49Speaker 7: figure out what is MNAV and what is delution? You know,
- 16:53Speaker 7: if they sell mstr instead of bitcoin, and people are
- 16:57Speaker 7: asking me like, well, does that mean that the common
- 17:00Speaker 7: is getting screwed? I'm like, well, I don't know, I
- 17:01Speaker 7: guess it depends on your definition.
- 17:02Speaker 1: So I'll stop there.
- 17:03Speaker 7: And I was like, hey, listen, I have quite I
- 17:05Speaker 7: don't know, like if we don't have a universal definition
- 17:07Speaker 7: of m NAV and we don't have a universal definition
- 17:09Speaker 7: of dilution, like if selling equity for cash is not dilution,
- 17:13Speaker 7: then I don't I can't have a conversation any company
- 17:16Speaker 7: that I am running or founder of and stuff like
- 17:20Speaker 7: haven't done the preferred stuff because I just I haven't
- 17:23Speaker 7: fully personally understood these parts.
- 17:26Speaker 1: All right, So you can see there's some skepticism out there,
- 17:28Speaker 1: and this has been one of the things that I
- 17:30Speaker 1: think all of Wall Street has mentioned. Either it's brilliant
- 17:33Speaker 1: or it's diabolical. We don't really fully see this because
- 17:37Speaker 1: you won't see this play out until really the experiment ends,
- 17:41Speaker 1: I guess, and that of course is whether or not
- 17:43Speaker 1: bitcoin continues to go up. But you look at Blackrock, Well,
- 17:47Speaker 1: they're jumping in the same boat here because Blackrock is
- 17:49Speaker 1: now launching a bitcoin ETF that pays you monthly income.
- 17:53Speaker 1: And the new Bitta ETF will sell options on Blackrocks
- 17:58Speaker 1: forty nine billion in terms of the I bet fund,
- 18:02Speaker 1: so and then they're going to distribute that to premiums
- 18:05Speaker 1: as yields. This is exactly the same model Goldman Sachs
- 18:08Speaker 1: is preparing to go into this on a rival bitcoin etf.
- 18:11Speaker 1: So it's all about moving money, earning asset value, and
- 18:17Speaker 1: getting more money to buy that asset if you believe
- 18:20Speaker 1: in it. And I think that's where both Blackrock Sailor
- 18:23Speaker 1: and of course Tom Lee sets Here is Andy talking
- 18:26Speaker 1: about it right here, and he's saying, Hey, maybe this
- 18:29Speaker 1: run right now that we're in the middle of feels
- 18:32Speaker 1: pretty good and it's serious. I'd keep my finger off
- 18:36Speaker 1: the red button for a little while. What do you
- 18:38Speaker 1: guys think? Are you looking for a lower bitcoin? Do
- 18:41Speaker 1: you think sixty k was the bottom? Just simply say
- 18:44Speaker 1: sixty k down below or put below down below and
- 18:49Speaker 1: we'll see. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
- 18:58Speaker 1: drop a comment down below, and also join our free
- 19:01Speaker 1: private member group the links in the description