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War as Theater, Power Without Trust: When Performance Replaces Governance and Exhaustion Finally Breaks Credibility · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

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We interrupt this incredibly awesome music to bring
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you some incredibly awesome political talk on damn
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radio Hello, good morning.
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Welcome.
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I am samuel trap.
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This is international flavor.
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You are listening to damn radio You can
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send me emails at live at damn radio
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.com.
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You can call in 573-746-8020 it's
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been a Rather horrific weekend but before we
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get to those headlines, I wanted to uh
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Give you a path before we start naming
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names and pretend that today's shows about perhaps
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Any one horrible country or one horrible war
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one crazy political system I want to set
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this frame somewhat, uh properly because uh We're
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living through some times where you know appearances
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Is um do more work than reality does.
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Um Performances, you know have theater has certainly
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replaced, uh governance Confidence is a staged narrative
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Whatever limits are treated as some kind of
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a moral failure rather than a fact of
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life and systems built this way, uh They're
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just hollow, you know it and and that's
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the world we're going to discuss today I
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don't want to talk about panic Although I
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feel sometimes Panic is necessary.
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It's not about cheering for a collapse of
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one system over another anything like that.
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It's not even about predictions.
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It's about Credibility who has it who spent
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it and what happens when credibility is run
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out?
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Before the guy even takes the stage before
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you listen to a word anybody says and
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uh certainly ran out long before the power
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did you know, they still these still same
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idiots have the the power over the weekend
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events commentary around the world, um Converged on
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something, uh Mm-hmm Something pretty unusual, uh,
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they they everybody's agreeing with each other that
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it's not agreement.
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It's not ideology But they diagnosed the problem
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quite a few people have talked about what
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the problem is very different voices Speaking to
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different audiences all circling the same sort of
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conclusion that systems that run the modern world
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are just exhausted And it's exhausting Uh, it's
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exhaustion even that is changing human behavior exhaustion
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isn't A revolution that doesn't look like it's
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disengagement.
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It looks like pretty much disbelief.
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Nobody believes anything anymore looks like people adjusting
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their expectations downward and uh You know institutions
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continue speaking as if nothing has fundamentally changed
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And the disconnect between reality and what we're
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told is the real story When governments say
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there's no immediate threat and violence still occurs
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people don't hear reassurance they hear Insulation from
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the consequences for these leaders when leaders say
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the economy is strong while households are all
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Feeling quite squeezed.
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They don't hear optimism.
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They hear Distance jesus how far away is
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this guy from reality?
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When officials say extraordinary measures are Temporary and
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those measures are routine and become permanent People
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don't hear necessity They hear Well, that's par
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for the course.
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They've taken more power And this is how
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trust erodes not through one lie But through
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repeated mismatch between language and life You know,
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and so I want to kind of follow
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up on that because you know War and
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horrific events become some kind of a theater
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um Law has a narrative and what it's
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you know, what they get to say happens
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finance is now leverage Media is just noise
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Instead of real news.
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It's just noise And most importantly it's about
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what happens inside a society When people stop
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believing That the people in charge are telling
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them the truth one of the One one
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one big thing to come out this weekend
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and i'm gonna get to the horror stories
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that are that are part of this also,
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but one of the one of the big
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things to come out is the similarity from
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from uh voices it's not just uh It's
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not just bravado.
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It's not just hey i'm right.
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Look what I found out.
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It's uh impatience With all the illusion that
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we're given um You know Why can't we
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find people who?
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Are gonna conduct horrific events sometime before what
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when especially when we know about it hear
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about it all the time Does a flag
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on a video mean control of a situation
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is a speech Um governance no governance is
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quiet steady consistent narratives Isn't a narrative is
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not performance And eventually reality catches up with
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you because it always does And uh, I
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don't know we've been told for years rules
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are absolute Until they're inconvenient till they don't
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matter anymore Markets are neutral Until they need
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to be weaponized Emergency powers are rare until
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they become permanent And each exception is justified
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each shortcut is rationalized and slowly the system
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teaches all of us That the same lesson
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Everything is conditional.
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Nothing Is steady and once people internalize that
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lesson they change their behavior citizens disengage politically
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countries Act differently move their money compliance Is
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selective we we uh follow this rule, but
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we're not going to follow that one and
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trust This is the worst part Becomes only
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personal instead of institutional you don't trust any
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of the institutions And none of this requires
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any sort of conspiracy.
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It's mechanical It's what rational people do when
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there's no predictability.
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It's why uh, you know things like um
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Multipolarity is not about idea a lot Ideology
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or value it's about the escape from being
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dependent upon somebody else Now states are hedging
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their bets people are hedging their bets and
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always have everyone is hedging because the system
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that once guaranteed stability Is now Kind of
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an improv An improvisation is dangerous in this
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sort of field the real risk today.
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Isn't it not collapse tomorrow?
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It's how brittle the systems are systems that
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looked stable They have no slack they have
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no room for play Institutions that function only
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as long as nothing unexpected happens You know
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something unexpected happens and you're it's a bailout,
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you know, we got to bail it out
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leadership culture confuses certainty with strength and restraint
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With weakness and that's how made you know
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decisions Are very bad, you know They aren't
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making any good decisions.
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Certainly not early takes them forever.
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Try one route doesn't work.
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Try another one, you know You know, I'm
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not here trying to sell you fear.
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I'm trying to sell you reality I'm trying
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to tell you about reality because nobody believes
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a damn thing anymore and Once exhaustion turns
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into anger options disappear once disengagement turns into
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rejection Legitimacy can't be rebuilt all that easily,
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you know recreating a system not full of
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lies and mistruths is Extremely difficult we're watching
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that right now and once systems rely on
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enforcement instead of the consent of the governed
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They're dangerous expensive and still fragile So, I
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don't know it's a reality isn't you know
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Let's let's let's walk through the world as
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it really is not as they advertise it
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to be, you know, it's Let's go to
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a couple of these horrific stories that occurred
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over the weekend starting in Australia if you
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will and I think it's It It's quite
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depressing, you know here it is and we
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have let's talk about how Netanyahu Talked about
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this day, I don't know if you saw
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that yet.
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So basically on Bondi Beach, I suppose I
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think it's called is You know last time
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I looked at it which admittedly was like
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one o'clock in the morning Was that
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there were 12 people dead and It's probably
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oh, no, it's 15 according to this news
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article this new one that just came out
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and we have Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
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is Blaming the Australian government for this deadly
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attack on a Jewish gathering in Sydney over
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the weekend He said that the support for
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Palestinian statehood fuels domestic Antisemitism now, that's nonsense.
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You know, that's that's not right.
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People are just idiots These two gunmen father
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and son killed 15 people and wounded dozens
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of others at a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi
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Beach on Sunday Police shot one of the
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attackers who was an elder member of the
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father and son pair Local Muslim man was
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praised for intervening and tackling one of the
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assailants and disarmed him.
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That's a video.
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That's Unbelievable, I thought he was gonna shoot
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the guy part of me felt like he
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should Netanyahu claimed the violence was the outcome
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of the policies pursued by Prime Minister Albanese
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Which he blamed for promoting and encouraging Antisemitism
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in Australia now if that's not a world
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leader taking a Horrific event and using it
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to his benefit politically.
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I don't know what is and you know,
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I Don't even necessarily Completely Disagree, you know
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anti-semitism is out there, but you know
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anti-palestine is sure as hell out there
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I mean, geez, how do you equate?
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1200 or whatever it was killed on October
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7 wasn't it 2023 and since that time
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70,000 Palestinians have been liquidated by the
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Israelis not saying right wrong and different.
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I'm saying It's clearly And they're killing women
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and children over there, you know, you know
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and people Justified by going.
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Oh, geez, that's a tomorrow's terrorist.
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So it's okay We justify blowing up a
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ship carrying alleged narco traffickers with zero evidence
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because Their disease in America period will believe
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when we want to believe But we have
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zero standards for what you say to the
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to the public to the people you can
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disagree with people and you know freedom of
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speech is is a Right that I think
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should be universal and you know, it's not
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in some places so Australia did formally recognize
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Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September
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and joined several other countries the one to
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pressure it pressure Israel over the military campaign
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in Gaza and Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to
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prevent the establish of the Palestinian state He
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said your call for a Palestinian state pours
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fuel on the anti-semitic Fire it rewards
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Hamas terrorists.
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It emboldens those who menace Australian Jews and
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encourages Jew hatred now stalking your streets said
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Netanyahu Now think about that It's okay for
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him to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian
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state and I you know what?
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I'm not as I'm not a big enough
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expert.
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I know that issue has been going on
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my entire lifetime and You know you can
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what happened to self-determination what happened to
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People who created this hell if I know,
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you know, I don't blame only The Palestinians,
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I don't claim blame only Hamas the mass
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shootings stemmed from austere Australian government's weakness and
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inaction in combating the cancer of anti-semitism
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he said And Albany's focused on domestic gun
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policy in his response to the attack, which
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is what we do here in America We
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talk about domestic gun policy Democrats will get
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on and blame the handgun and not the
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person They called for restricting ownership, you know
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good Australia, you know same same idea Police
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said the deceased suspect legally owned six firearms
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That were some of which were used in
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the assault, right?
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The Bondi Beach attack was of Australia's deadliest
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mass shooting since the 1996 Port Arthur Massacre
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in which one lone gunman killed 35 people
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Israel For its part launched its operation in
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Gaza after the October 2023 attack the campaign
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Expanded to strikes in Lebanon Yemen and included
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a brief but intense exchange of drones and
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missiles with Iran authorities in Gaza say the
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death toll exceeds 70,000 and Continues to
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rise despite a u.s. Back ceasefire announced
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in October That ceasefire hasn't gone anywhere.
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You say there's a ceasefire, but is there
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I Don't think so You know, this is
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this is where it is and you know,
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do we had a A couple other shootings
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around the Round the world happened as well
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and You know It just continues to To
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to grow.
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I'm not an a gun I'm not a
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person who believes that guns Cannot be owned,
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you know, I believe in the right to
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bear arms.
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I believe in that I believe in that
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not for killing people.
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I believe it not for not for Engaging
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in political acts of destruction of certain categories
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of people that you don't like But to
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protect you and your family from the overreach
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of the government That's what I believe in.
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You know, it's not you have the right
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to defend yourself But most of it you
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need to defend yourself against the government, you
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know I I think that's why it's important
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that people Is there is there really any?
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Deterrent on the side of the public anymore
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to stop their government from doing what they're
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going to do No, not really but owning
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a weapon kind of makes us feel like
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maybe there is and the trouble is because
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nobody will ever band together You know you
17:28
heard about Rob Reiner and his wife Getting
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killed in their homes yesterday and or what
17:36
might even have been late Saturday and they've
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been saying it's the son of Nick Reiner,
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I think was his name.
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There is his name That allegedly killed them
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stabbed them both to death.
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It's You know another horrific story Rob Reiner
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was a meathead on All in the family
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with Archie Bunker and He called him meathead
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he's you know, he's been a Somewhat of
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a meathead, you know politically ever since you
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know and all this, you know, but According
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to the beliefs if you you know, you
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you go against what the he's extremely liberal
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But I don't know let's You know, there
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used to be a hard line between This
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is especially important when you know these narratives
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and Reality checks if you want to call
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them that stuff like that Is especially true
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when you get into war and the theater
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surrounding the war Because here you want to
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talk about Some sort of Reality check or
19:00
a comic relief tour it's nonsense Now, you
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know a line that everyone understood even when
19:06
they didn't articulate it was that war is
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what actually happens used to be anyway Movements
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of men control of certain territory supply of
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cities administration of populations You know a slow
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grinding pressure that decides outcomes long before speeches
19:29
are written theater comes afterward theater is how
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wars are explained justified commemorated or Mythologized once
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the reality was settled now that is gone
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and the line hasn't blurred.
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It hasn't faded It's completely collapsed We live
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in an era where war is fought filmed
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edited staged counter-staged narrated and Packaged in
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real time for your emotional You know growth
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Notification right not after the fact but during
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the fact Flags are dropped by drones into
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contested zones for a few seconds of footage
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Leaders appear on the front line without actually
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being there without exercising any command Cities can
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be walked through on camera without being found
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fed governed or secured Entire populations can now
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be persuaded that what they are watching is
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reality Even when reality has moved far far
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away in the opposite direction This weekend across
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a rather wide spectrum of commentary think about
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this Russia Ukraine Europe and America One theme
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keeps appearing you know whether the speakers admitted
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openly or not reality is no longer trusted
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only verification is and political systems Somewhat like
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our own that rely on symbolism Optics and
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emotional you know Performing monkeys are beginning to
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fail because symbolism No longer survives contact with
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the outcome You know the outcomes are so
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far from reality Or I'm sorry not from
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reality the outcome is the reality but the
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outcome is so far from what we were
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sold as reality that it's just nonsense and
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I watched The Sunday night program as I
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try to Vladimir Solovyov every week and It
21:51
was not emotional.
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You know was not triumph.
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It was you know kind of corrective and
21:57
Managed and somewhat depressed he wasn't speaking like
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someone was trying to sell victory to an
22:03
audience He was speaking like someone trying to
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prevent the audience from believing all the crap.
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That's being sold out there including Illusions that
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might even come from his own side he
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returned again and again to a single Brutal
22:19
idea you can show anything now, and that
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doesn't mean it's true I mean, it's constant
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in our world, and I'm sitting there going
22:28
well Happen to agree and he explained that
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modern technology has destroyed the evidentiary value of
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your own eyes Of what you're seeing drones
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can appear anywhere for just a few seconds
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Footage can be edited recycled slowed down sped
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up stabilized reframed stripped of any context Artificial
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intelligence can enhance clarity sharpen detail create emotional
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coherence where none exists in this environment the
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image itself proves absolutely nothing At one point
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when he was discussing all this he said
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something real close to this you can place
23:15
a flag anywhere today but a flag does
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not control a street a Flag doesn't control
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a neighborhood and a flag does not feed
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a city or police a population Only control
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control can do that And he kept asking
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the same questions over and over in different
23:36
ways Who holds the street to next morning
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who controls the checkpoint overnight?
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Who stays after the camera is gone?
23:44
Who pays the salaries of those who are
23:47
still there who delivered the electricity in the
23:50
water who enforces the law when there is
23:52
no audience Those questions.
23:55
He says are the only questions that matter
23:58
especially in war and anything else is just
24:01
a decoration and What makes this important is
24:05
that so a view of doesn't he didn't
24:08
limit his criticism to Ukraine or the West?
24:11
He explicitly warned Russian commentators bloggers Not to
24:17
fall into the same trap.
24:19
I mean this is important for our station
24:22
here You know for it's it's hard to
24:25
get truth.
24:26
You know it's hard to even receive truth
24:28
especially when an AI Goddess is telling you
24:32
what you want to hear Instead of giving
24:35
you the truth and reality it's your perception
24:37
that matters to the AI in 90%
24:40
of the cases So he cautioned these bloggers
24:43
and Alan and now that I'm an analyst
24:45
not to confuse You know footage on YouTube
24:49
with power or mistake symbolic gestures for operational
24:55
success Not to let emotional satisfaction Replace the
24:59
sober assessment.
25:00
He said in a language that cut Certainly
25:03
across his own business Across modern media that
25:07
war isn't cinema war is administration It's logistics.
25:12
It's endurance war is boring until it's a
25:16
decisive victory one way or the other I
25:19
mean that idea alone explains why so many
25:22
audiences misunderstand conflict Boredom isn't what trends, but
25:30
boredom is what wins the war you know
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this boring?
25:35
Progression along the front that wins the war
25:38
not not these shallow propaganda Efforts, and I'm
25:46
talking about Zelensky showing up on the front
25:48
line And you should see the difference in
25:51
the video Versus the reality of the spot
25:54
where he showed up.
25:55
It's crazy It's a narrative discipline.
25:59
It's an attempt to re-anchor expectations in
26:02
reality and What makes this so striking is
26:07
how closely it aligns With criticisms that are
26:11
coming from inside Ukraine itself some criticism Criticisms
26:14
that I make and several others make on
26:16
this program all the time Guy named and
26:20
I talk about him all the time, and
26:22
I like to compare these two guys I
26:24
like to compare what solid the office saying
26:27
because he's Far one side far Russia pro
26:32
-russia, and then Alexei Rostovich although he's somewhat
26:35
anti Zelensky because of reality he He's saying
26:41
the same things You know so this criticism
26:45
is coming from him same sort of criticism
26:48
is coming from Ukraine itself and Alexei Rostovich
26:51
also yesterday his commentary was Precisely you know
26:58
devastating because it came from you know this
27:02
Ukrainian political and psychological Space he wasn't speaking
27:06
as an enemy.
27:07
He wasn't attacking Ukraine as a country or
27:10
people he is Ukrainian.
27:11
He was attacking a style of leadership that
27:15
we all need to think about because it
27:17
substitutes performances for real governance and He's discussing
27:23
Zelensky's repeated Quote battlefield appearances the short visits
27:29
the carefully framed footage the selfie moments You
27:33
know Zelensky governing by selfie Aristovitch asked a
27:39
question that Western media never asks because it
27:43
breaks their narrative What is the job of
27:47
the president during war?
27:50
Seriously and Aristovitch asked us on his show
27:53
yesterday Ah You know what's the show is
27:57
it he said it's not what looks brave.
27:59
It's not what inspires applause It's not even
28:02
what produces a shareable image What is the
28:06
actual function of the audience he asked and
28:10
his answer was not very glamorous?
28:12
He said the job of the president in
28:14
wartime is to govern preserve institutions maintain Constitutional
28:22
order and ensure continuity of the state to
28:27
protect the population's future Not a dancing bear
28:32
Performing on the camera.
28:34
You know in a green shirt Pretending to
28:37
be you know courageous like he does you
28:40
know wearing that that that green shirt all
28:42
over the friggin place Switching it to black
28:44
every once in a while, but that's all
28:47
he does he's a performing Tries not to
28:50
be too much of a comedian anymore.
28:52
He's not funny.
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That's why You know he used to be
28:57
but he sure isn't now This is not
28:59
funny he made a statement Aristovitch did that
29:02
should have been front-page news everywhere, but
29:04
was pretty much ignored He said pretty much
29:07
word for word that he would rather have
29:09
the most cowardly president in the world Sitting
29:14
behind the desk if the country remained lawful
29:18
intact and alive That's what he said that
29:23
sentence Challenges that you know the myth of
29:27
modern leadership.
29:28
It says competence matters more than imagery heroism
29:33
alleged or an administration matters more than symbolism
29:38
And he didn't stop there, he said Zelensky's
29:41
behavior does not project confidence it projects pressure
29:46
Pressure from Washington.
29:48
He's got to go out there and create
29:50
these false narratives that he's standing on the
29:53
front So that he can claim.
29:55
Oh, no, we're winning.
29:56
Oh, no, we're pushing them back.
29:58
Oh, no, they're lying They don't have Petrovsk.
30:01
I do here.
30:03
I am on the front with a flag
30:05
They're certainly not in What was the name
30:10
of that city small it now, I can't
30:13
remember name of the city, you know, but
30:14
it's now openly pushing timelines and compromise Washington
30:19
is pressure from intelligence services that are monitoring
30:23
the political environment inside Ukraine Where he has
30:27
no backing pressure from corruption scandals That have
30:32
moved beyond containment he's on the chopping block
30:36
now He's got a he's got a make
30:39
it look good So the people want to
30:41
keep him, you know as some kind of
30:44
guy they can still pump a buttload of
30:46
money to pressure from a battlefield Situation that
30:51
is deteriorating Faster than he can adjust the
30:56
narrative So, you know he was he was
31:00
beaten on Zelensky himself, you know any aristovitch
31:04
and at one point He gave us excuse
31:08
me a phrase that applies far beyond Ukraine
31:10
when authority is shrinking performance expands That's not
31:18
a personal insult.
31:19
It's political law Whenever real authority is weakened
31:23
the leaders compensate it with some kind of
31:26
symbolism Jeez, we're losing we got it and
31:28
you know, put me out on the front.
31:30
Give me a video.
31:31
It can be a I no problem Take
31:33
this old Kvartal 95 And put me out
31:38
there Take this old video that I took
31:42
when I was there and you know 95
31:47
and And and give me some symbolism so
31:50
I can make you look good.
31:51
They replace control with imagery Competence with emotion
31:55
and governance with a performing Zelensky, you know
32:02
There you can get rid of the term
32:04
dancing bear Performing bear performing monkey and you
32:08
can just call it a performing Zelensky Because
32:11
that's all he's doing anymore.
32:13
There's there's no no truth in what he
32:15
says He even draws on the old Soviet
32:18
military doctrine to make the point aristovitch when
32:21
a commander leaves his post to carry the
32:24
flag into battle That may show bravery But
32:30
it also shows he is no longer doing
32:33
his job And in war doing your job
32:37
matters more than courage This you know presence
32:41
matters less than command Visibility matters less than
32:47
control Why does Zelensky have to go to
32:50
the front line to prove he controls it?
32:55
You know now Putin's done that too.
32:57
He's gone out to the front line You
32:59
know in certain places But you know visibility
33:06
Doesn't really matter if it's gone, you know
33:09
This visible spot is gone the next day
33:12
like it is unfortunately for them.
33:14
Well, unfortunately fortunately It doesn't matter to me
33:17
one way or the other But reality is
33:20
reality.
33:20
This isn't about the personalities in the game.
33:23
It's about the systems in the game Modern
33:26
leadership has been reduced to content creation clickbait
33:31
how much you get in Content never substitutes
33:35
for authority.
33:36
I bitch all the time about Leadership through
33:42
tweet Leadership through X post or true social
33:47
post.
33:47
I don't like that either But Leadership isn't
33:51
about who's telling the best story, you know,
33:54
it's not about personality.
33:55
It's about citizenship I'm sorry system ship having
33:59
systems the military summaries released this weekend reinforced
34:07
this in cold technical language in the analysis
34:10
of Seversk Myrnograd and the broader Donbass front,
34:16
which is where Seversk is where Zelensky showed
34:20
up on Claiming to own the place, you
34:23
know, and he was he didn't it's a
34:26
fake video The emphasis is not on dramatic
34:29
breakthrough or cinematic victories.
34:31
It's on structural exhaustion Defensive systems failed not
34:37
because of a single crack catastrophic defeat, but
34:41
because of sustained pressure attrition and logistical strain
34:47
one Alice Analyst states plainly that maps do
34:52
not change because of one battle They change
34:55
because of fatigue Exhaustion does not look dramatic
35:00
on video.
35:01
It does not inspire slogans.
35:03
It doesn't trend on social media But it
35:07
does decide the war This is why the
35:10
United States has been pushing Ukraine to compromise
35:14
now rather than later Another commentator put it
35:18
pretty bluntly in six months the maps gonna
35:21
be far worse for Ukraine that sentence explains
35:26
the urgency better than a hundred diplomatic press
35:29
conferences condemning Russia and You know waving blue
35:33
and yellow flags It explains why symbolism is
35:37
no longer enough Now, let's let's go back
35:41
a little wider with this lens because this
35:43
problem goes far beyond Ukraine Technology is broken
35:47
political signaling everywhere in previous wars presence implied
35:51
risk footage implied Proximity.
35:55
I remember when what the heck was his
35:57
name is on Fox News and I think
36:00
he's pretty much retired anymore, but Damn it.
36:05
What was his name?
36:06
But he was always on the ground in
36:08
Iraq one Oh It's on the tip of
36:13
my tongue and I can't remember it at
36:16
any rate it'll come to me when I'm
36:17
not thinking of it You know control implies
36:22
Responsibility for the front holding of the front
36:24
today artificial intelligence simulates presence drones create the
36:30
illusion of control edited video Conveys confidence, you
36:36
know, and there isn't any I saw the
36:39
elf acknowledges this pretty openly when he says
36:42
that modern technology You know, you can walk
36:45
through almost any building you want on video
36:48
real estate Salespeople are doing that all the
36:54
time now you can create a video walkthrough
36:56
that shows you walking through a Home it's
37:02
pretty it's not even hard to do you
37:05
know, it's I don't know this Space heaters
37:13
Not heating.
37:14
It's blowing cold air freezing my butt off
37:17
in here But you know who controls territory
37:22
over time who governs without collapsing, you know
37:25
All those questions we were asking before who
37:27
pays the salary Who enforces the law?
37:31
Predictably in those places these questions matter more
37:34
than visuals Leadership that does not understand this
37:40
will fail Not because they're immoral but because
37:44
long term They are ineffective quite That's what
37:52
it is.
37:52
And the shift isn't confined to battlefields.
37:55
They say there's no immediate threat until there
37:58
is one like allegedly these These guys that
38:04
did the shooting at Bondi Beach in Australia
38:09
had been on the radar for some time
38:12
we've talked about attacks that have occurred here
38:14
in the u.s. Where People are on
38:18
the radar for quite a long time and
38:21
they're not stopped.
38:22
They're not You know, you still can't keep
38:24
track of them, you know And they still
38:28
conduct these atrocious events so This weekend didn't
38:35
mark the collapse of a front line it
38:37
marked the collapse of you know continued collapse
38:40
of credibility And when credibility is collapsing laws
38:46
become flexible assets or weapons agreements become provisional
38:50
and escalation becomes Unintentional and that reality is
38:57
now asserting itself, you know, Benjamin Netanyahu gets
39:00
to set the reality by blaming the Australian
39:07
foreign minister because people attacked Jewish Celebration first
39:13
night Hanukkah, it's You know, I believe it's
39:17
a mistake for him to do that.
39:18
But you know who the hell am I?
39:21
But It's it's blame-shifting take the attention
39:25
away from You know the atrocities of your
39:29
own, you know here blame this other guy
39:31
He's using it as a means to hopefully
39:34
get some people back on his side because
39:37
he's been under Under the gun for a
39:39
little while So, I don't know One symbolism
39:45
stops working systems that relied on that symbolism
39:49
begin to panic one of the most striking
39:53
things about the weekend is how often the
39:57
same word keeps appearing and all of these
40:03
Commentators shows that I like to watch Exhaustion
40:08
everybody's talking about exhaustion not defeat not victory
40:13
Exhaustion political exhaustion military exhaustion Institutional exhaustion
40:21
and exhaustion behaves very differently from fear or
40:26
ambition exhaustion shortens time horizons Exhaustion pushes leaders
40:35
to make decisions.
40:36
They wouldn't make if they believe that time
40:39
was on their side That is why so
40:42
many commentators from so many different camps are
40:47
suddenly talking about urgency Urgency doesn't come from
40:52
ideology.
40:53
It doesn't you know, it comes comes from
40:56
Numbers arithmetic comes from logistic comes from maps
41:00
that change not because of dramatic breakthroughs But
41:05
because defensive systems slowly have lost coherence the
41:10
defensive system is collapsing So in the military
41:14
summaries that were released this weekend particularly those
41:18
that focused on Seversk and Myrnograd the one
41:22
east of Pokrovsk that I'll tell you about
41:24
fairly frequently and on the southern front The
41:27
language is not very emotional.
41:29
There's very little talk of Dramatic maneuvers instead
41:33
there's emphasis on what?
41:37
What one guy called operational space opening up
41:44
That phrase, you know sounds like a technical
41:47
military term, but it isn't operational space opens
41:52
up when defensive lines No longer function not
41:56
when a city falls in a dramatic moment
41:59
But when supply routes are stretched too far
42:02
when rotation schedules are non-existent when units
42:06
are replaced Faster than they can integrate, you
42:10
know when command decisions are made with incomplete
42:14
information because Time no longer allows them to
42:19
deliberate one commentator In military, you know summary
42:25
put it this way The map doesn't change
42:28
because one position is lost it changes because
42:31
the structure behind the position can no longer
42:34
Support it now.
42:36
That's What do you call it?
42:41
That's an of course moment, you know, of
42:43
course that you know, that's a Statement, you
42:46
know, if you don't have support you lose
42:48
the position, but that's exactly what's happening Right
42:52
now in Ukraine this observation does matter because
42:56
it explains why so much political messaging now
42:59
is Disconnected from the reality on the battlefield
43:04
You know political narrative.
43:05
I mean all these people died in Myrnogrod
43:08
in a they're encircled are because Siersky and
43:13
company Zelensky and company Wouldn't allow them to
43:18
retreat and instead said, you know, you got
43:21
to stay there because you know We have
43:23
to keep the money flowing basically US pressure
43:27
on Ukraine has shifted quite sharply in tone
43:31
these days.
43:32
It's not that Washington discovered moderation It's not
43:36
that they even know what realism is and
43:38
they sure as hell don't know what goodwill
43:40
is It's that the military planners are reading
43:43
the same indicator indicators everybody else's They're looking
43:48
at manpower ratios logistics industrial replenishment rate and
43:53
political sustainability and huge corruption on the Ukrainian
43:58
side and they are finally concluding the delay
44:01
or Waiting isn't going to improve Ukraine's negotiating
44:06
position.
44:07
It's only going to worsen it and You
44:10
know another another analyst said this quite bluntly
44:15
in in six maps or six months the
44:18
maps gonna be You know Astronomically worse, I
44:24
mean huge maybe we should get Donald Trump
44:27
to say the word huge Because I think
44:30
he has he said, you know that that
44:32
that sentence carries more weight than a thousand
44:36
moral appears Appeals to reason it explains why
44:41
compromise has to be discussed now rather than
44:44
later if They wish to save anything east
44:48
of the Donetsk.
44:49
Hell, they're probably gonna lose Odessa if this
44:52
keeps on going You know, it's it's it's
44:56
this is Not rhetoric, you know when when
44:59
leaders train themselves to communicate through optics, you
45:03
know Here's a picture of me on the
45:05
front They struggle to Transition to administration of
45:11
government under pressure They may know how to
45:14
inspire You know arguably The old Z monster
45:19
knew how to inspire when this first started
45:21
sure was good at collecting money you know,
45:24
he'd walk around like like the dancing clown
45:27
that he is and And You know walk
45:31
away with another hundred million dollars and he
45:34
still picks up pretty good hundred million every
45:37
now and again But people aren't as willing
45:39
to pass it out.
45:41
You know this dancing bear.
45:42
Nobody wants to see it anymore so this
45:45
is where Aristotle which is commentary is is
45:48
ever ever so relevant and One of his
45:52
talks he talked not only about Zelensky, but
45:56
up but about the broader Psychological trap that
46:01
leadership falls into during a prolonged crisis He
46:05
called it.
46:06
I thought it was rather interesting.
46:08
He called it the hero loop When leaders
46:11
are rewarded for dramatic gestures They repeat those
46:17
gestures even when conditions change and Then they're
46:22
trapped by their own mythology in essence that
46:27
is The Not leadership, you know, that's that's
46:33
alleged courage, but without the government governance that
46:36
is required It is self-destruction to applause
46:41
and Applause he notes Well, of course, it's
46:48
it's it was an interesting statement he made
46:51
It applause doesn't fix infrastructure replenish ammunition or
46:58
rebuild institutions I Mean think about that.
47:02
He basically what he's claiming is that Zelensky
47:07
is a performing animal He performs he gets
47:12
rewarded.
47:13
So he performs again.
47:15
It's a Pavlov's dog sort of thing You
47:19
You reward him you can you can control
47:24
his behavior and he's been rewarded so long.
47:26
He doesn't know anything else That's all that's
47:29
all he knows.
47:29
And so well, what can I show now?
47:32
I can show me on the front, you
47:34
know, then maybe they'll give me more money
47:36
and things will turn around Maybe they'll steal
47:40
that Russian money that's being held You know
47:43
and aristovitch returns Repeatedly to the idea that
47:48
the presidency isn't a Stage role.
47:52
It's not a stage role.
47:54
It's an administrative role an administration becomes more
47:59
important as Conditions deteriorate not less and he
48:05
says Zelensky is doing too much performance and
48:09
not enough governance interesting Show it was that
48:15
I watched and The worst the situation becomes
48:19
in Ukraine the more boring the leadership must
48:23
become he says and He said that's very
48:26
hard truth in an age that rewards the
48:31
drama Soloveyov from a different ideological position, of
48:36
course, he made a very similar point.
48:39
He said that emotional intoxication Is one of
48:43
the most dangerous forces in war?
48:46
emotional intoxication He cautioned against mistaking You know
48:53
morale theater for morale itself.
48:56
He says morale that depends on illusions collapses
49:01
faster than morale grounded in discipline and management
49:07
of expectations Wow It's this convergence that really
49:13
matters, isn't it when commentators from opposing sides?
49:17
Begin emphasizing the same structural reality.
49:20
It suggests that the system itself is imposing
49:24
constraints that ideology can't overcome So, you know
49:31
this pattern again, it's not confined to Ukraine
49:34
or Russia.
49:34
It's playing out across the international system Look
49:39
at Europe's crazy responses to these same pressures
49:43
Faced with a war that isn't producing the
49:46
promised outcome European institutions have begun to improvise
49:50
They're making it up as they go along
49:53
and again their improvise improvisation is under exhaustion
49:57
and It's legal shortcuts the discussion around the
50:02
frozen Russian assets is a perfect example of
50:05
all this For years European leaders insisted that
50:10
property rights legal predictability financial neutrality are foundational
50:17
principles of a valid government are founding principles
50:23
These principles were not presented as convenient.
50:27
They were presented as moral absolutes and now
50:32
Under pressure, where do we come up with
50:34
more money because the u.s. Ain't just
50:36
gonna fork it over.
50:37
They're being redefined The language they're using is
50:42
pretty revealing Assets Russian are not being confiscated
50:48
They're being immobilized Not seized but repurposed not
50:57
stolen but used as collateral These are not
51:02
accidental You know phraseology Efforts right this is
51:09
not an accident The these are attempts to
51:12
preserve the appearance of legality while altering substance
51:17
making shortcuts But markets really don't care about
51:22
these euphemisms investors do not price Rhetoric they
51:26
price precedent and the precedent being set is
51:30
unmistakable property rights now depend upon Not the
51:36
law, but upon your political in alignment We
51:41
can steal anybody's money Why because we have
51:45
the power?
51:46
You know we can blow up any boat.
51:49
We want to why because we have the
51:51
power That's what we can do that is
51:55
why even countries that strongly support Ukraine are
52:00
uneasy about this They know that once a
52:04
principle is breached under emergency logic It isn't
52:09
gonna heal not easily Emergency measures have a
52:14
habit of becoming permanent like the the the
52:18
state surveillance of Americans after Temporary exceptions have
52:26
a way of redefining the rules.
52:30
Oh Give up your rights.
52:31
You know for the common good Those rights
52:36
disappear, don't they?
52:39
Solovyov highlights this Repeatedly not as a moral
52:43
argument, but as a strategic one he frames
52:47
the asset seizures not only as theft but
52:50
as an Escalation of the war he says
52:54
that when financial rules are weaponized finance itself
52:59
is the battlefield and Battlefields don't remain confined
53:05
meaning you know there's plenty of Western assets
53:09
located still in Russia And along with its
53:14
you know places where its allies are telling
53:16
me they can't steal money, too Hmm aristovitch
53:22
similar angle or Well similar observation from a
53:27
slightly different angle.
53:28
He notes that when states abandon their own
53:30
legal foundations Which seems to be going around?
53:35
They weaken themselves More than they weaken their
53:38
enemies, and we see that in Europe right
53:42
now He warns that legitimacy lost Internally is
53:47
harder to regain than territory lost externally So
53:53
let's go back to this broader theme of
53:56
verification versus theater You know legal systems rely
54:01
on predictability Predictability the same treatment for everyone
54:07
relies upon trust trust relies upon Consistency between
54:13
your stated principles and your actual behavior That's
54:19
important trust is Consistency between your stated principles
54:25
and your actual behavior.
54:28
That's how trust is built Trust is built
54:31
by doing what you say you're going to
54:34
do Once that consistency is broken No amount
54:39
of narrative repair can restore it quickly.
54:43
It's a takes a long time Once the
54:46
trust is gone.
54:47
I mean ask yourself this question Do you
54:51
trust your government at all I?
54:56
Mean seriously is there anything that you trust
54:59
in your government other than?
55:03
they're going to Act in the best interests
55:07
of the people in charge That money is
55:14
going to be funneled to the same old
55:17
people.
55:18
It's always been funneled to That you know
55:22
you unless you're connected You will not succeed
55:27
if you are connected you can overcome You
55:31
know issues you Does anybody believe that people
55:36
aren't treated differently based upon who they know
55:38
not what they know It's absolutely true, and
55:43
so as long as you can figure out
55:46
how to create a world where You make
55:52
yourself connected to the right people You know
55:57
your your your success will be limited your
56:00
and certainly Trust trust is eroded in this
56:04
country trust is gone and try and I'm
56:07
saying it's more of a it's a Certainly
56:10
if you go on a in a global
56:12
scenario of who trusts our country on initial
56:17
international level It's eroded.
56:20
It's gone, and and it's not gone because
56:23
of Donald Trump by the way it was
56:26
gone way before that The the way that
56:30
the global elitists have acted has been obvious
56:34
for at least my whole generation if not
56:37
before that and And I know that people
56:40
watch it legal systems rely on predictability right
56:45
and Predictability relies on trust that it'll be
56:48
the same today as it will be tomorrow
56:51
in consistency between your principles and your behavior
56:57
Without that consistency You know you have no
57:01
credibility This is why the credibility collapsed that
57:05
we are witnessing You know Zelensky the dancing
57:09
bear on the front line that doesn't really
57:11
exist.
57:12
It's not localized It's it's spreading.
57:14
It's moving from the battlefield to finance or
57:17
finance to law from law to Diplomacy and
57:21
from diplomacy to domestic politics Let's let's talk
57:25
about the United States for a second where
57:27
our credit was downgraded.
57:29
They're they're dismissed as technical adjustments Our interest
57:33
payments double in five years That if that
57:37
doesn't scare you it should Banks are downgraded
57:40
alongside You know banks in the US are
57:44
downgraded alongside with the United States But the
57:48
political messaging insist that nothing fundamental is changed
57:52
That's theater colliding with arithmetic Check out Australia
57:58
Authorities insist.
58:00
There's no immediate threat Statement can be technically
58:03
accurate, but when the violence occurs the public
58:07
here is not reassurance, but incompetence The language
58:11
of control no matter you know what it
58:15
doesn't match the outcome Everywhere, there's the same
58:19
pattern institutions speak in the language of stability
58:22
While behaving in the language of emergency and
58:26
that mismatch erodes trust faster than any propaganda
58:30
campaign ever could That is why public fatigue
58:35
is becoming the dominant political emotion fatigue not
58:41
anger not enthusiasm fatigue People don't want narratives
58:49
They want outcome they want results.
58:52
They want predictability They want leaders Who can
58:56
manage?
58:58
honestly Even if it's a decline Rather than
59:02
disguising it as theater And this is the
59:05
most dangerous moment for any political system because
59:08
when theater stops working like ours has leaders
59:12
have to choose between Adapt adaptation and escalation
59:18
between being boring, but competent and being you
59:24
know dramatic and overreach History suggests That most
59:32
choose overreach of government.
59:35
It's that's what they do so this brings
59:37
us back to where we started Verification has
59:41
replaced belief.
59:43
How do you verify something?
59:46
outcomes have replaced images control replaces performance and
59:53
Systems that don't adapt to this reality Fail
59:58
not because they are evil But because they're
1:00:00
obsolete so the question now isn't who is
1:00:03
right or who is morally justified The question
1:00:07
is who can govern under pressure without lying
1:00:10
to themselves Who can manage exhaustion without collapsing
1:00:14
their own legitimacy?
1:00:17
who can transition from performing bear to administrative
1:00:22
Expert before the options disappear that question You
1:00:28
know defines what comes next not only in
1:00:30
Ukraine, but across the entire international system It's
1:00:36
I mean, it's true.
1:00:38
It just is And there's a moment in
1:00:43
every long crisis and trust me this Ukrainian
1:00:45
well Trust me, you know how long it's
1:00:47
been going on in February.
1:00:49
Well, it's been going on since 2014, but
1:00:51
the escalation since February 2022 And there's a
1:00:58
moment in every long crisis when the leaders
1:01:02
stop pretending That the rules are gonna save
1:01:07
them and begin to rewrite the rules instead
1:01:12
That moment usually arrives not during victory and
1:01:17
not even during a clear defeat but during
1:01:21
exhaustion When the outcomes no longer match what
1:01:25
was promised When time stops feeling You know
1:01:29
like an ally to you and when maintaining
1:01:32
appearance is far more important than maintaining your
1:01:36
principles That moment is where Europe is now
1:01:42
for years European leaders spoke in absolute terms
1:01:47
about law property rights financial neutrality rules based
1:01:52
orders Not not just because they're convenient because
1:01:56
they are Civilizational foundations Europe we were told
1:02:01
Was different because it subordinated power to legal
1:02:07
interests to principles and politics to procedure That
1:02:13
claim is failing You know the this this
1:02:17
this debate over the Russian assets that they
1:02:21
decided this weekend I've been following it for
1:02:25
some time And and like I told you
1:02:30
earlier the these Russian assets are being immobilized
1:02:35
right not seized They're being repurposed not confiscated
1:02:43
Not stolen but transformed into collateral for a
1:02:48
loan to Ukraine These aren't neutrality words They're
1:02:53
I don't know rhetorical shock absorbers You Design
1:02:58
to soften the reality That would otherwise be
1:03:02
and well it is anyway politically explosive because
1:03:06
reality is pretty simple sovereign assets held under
1:03:10
custodial arrangements are being treated as political leverage
1:03:14
and Once that threshold is crossed Law is
1:03:19
no longer a constraint it is the tool
1:03:22
now.
1:03:23
I don't know why this should surprise any
1:03:25
of us because Those in power only follow
1:03:29
the law when it's convenient They force it
1:03:32
upon you, but they don't follow it themselves
1:03:35
You know and so it has been a
1:03:37
tool for a long time But they're a
1:03:40
little more sly about how they put it
1:03:42
together.
1:03:43
You know, but this is why Everybody knows
1:03:46
who Victor Orban is and his objections matter
1:03:49
far beyond Hungary he's not arguing from any
1:03:53
sympathy toward Russia He's arguing from fear of
1:03:58
setting precedent what he says in essence is
1:04:02
that if emergency powers can override vetoes if
1:04:07
legality is suspended by consensus of a few
1:04:11
Powerful actors then the European Union is no
1:04:15
longer a union of law It's a hierarchy
1:04:18
disco disguised as a legal order and it's
1:04:22
absolutely true And what he's complaining about is
1:04:25
over the weekend Ursula von der Leyen and
1:04:27
company chose to Change the rules under emergency
1:04:35
powers it always required a unanimous consent of
1:04:40
every EU member in order to to change
1:04:45
anything nope They are now They've changed it
1:04:49
over the weekend, it's unbelievable Well, I suppose
1:04:56
it shouldn't be it's not unbelievable these guys
1:04:58
This is what they do and and Ursula
1:05:01
von der Leyen is not even elected by
1:05:02
anybody.
1:05:03
I mean, it's nonsense Excuse me But what
1:05:08
makes it most striking to me anyway is
1:05:11
it resistance to this asset seizure plan is
1:05:13
not coming Only from so-called problem states
1:05:17
like Italy Belgium Malta Bulgaria Countries that aren't
1:05:21
friendly to Moscow they you know have raised
1:05:25
these objections That's Italy Belgium Malta and Bulgaria.
1:05:30
They're not pro-russia.
1:05:31
Not at all.
1:05:32
They're the ones raising objections not You know
1:05:38
Not morale not moral objections.
1:05:41
No no no Structural legal objections, they understand
1:05:46
that once property rights are conditioned on political
1:05:49
alignment No asset is ever safe again And
1:05:54
I'm telling you this is this this is
1:05:56
the type of thing that is making the
1:05:59
rest of the world create alternative systems, you
1:06:03
know 300 billion lost to Russia is Is
1:06:10
Not gonna end Russia, right if it hasn't
1:06:13
gotten them so far It's not going to
1:06:16
you know what I mean, and the country's
1:06:18
still gonna be there, you know, they have
1:06:20
the lowest debt among Mo any major, you
1:06:25
know country, you know, they're they're their debt
1:06:28
ratio is is Incredibly small especially when you
1:06:32
compare it to us.
1:06:33
They don't they don't have huge debt You
1:06:37
know nowhere near what we have here and
1:06:42
But you know investors, but you know markets
1:06:45
understand what's going on they get it instantly
1:06:48
in in investors Don't debate Morality they price
1:06:53
risk That's what they do.
1:06:55
They look at precedent not press conferences and
1:06:58
the precedent being set here is Unmistakable if
1:07:03
assets can be frozen Indefinitely Redefined legally later
1:07:09
and Converted into a political instrument of some
1:07:12
sort then custody itself is what is unstable
1:07:18
This is why financial institutions in London Frankfurt
1:07:21
and Brussels have been warning against these moves
1:07:25
They're not doing it out of affection for
1:07:27
Russia.
1:07:28
They're doing it out of self-preservation Because
1:07:32
the credibility of Europe as a financial hub
1:07:35
rests on predictability and predictability can't survive Selective
1:07:41
enforcement.
1:07:42
I mean Watch selective enforcement in any system.
1:07:46
What is it?
1:07:47
I mean you pick and choose who you
1:07:49
go after Your system is BS.
1:07:52
You know, I talked about it with the
1:07:54
the Missouri Bar the selective enforcement You know
1:07:57
the the the nonsensical system that that they
1:08:02
use that is under no rule No, no
1:08:05
court rule no statutory grant of power certainly
1:08:09
no executive order nothing and that's what they
1:08:13
use to target specific people like they did
1:08:17
to me and In destroy them, that's what
1:08:22
it's One person one person that wants to
1:08:26
come after you and destroy you and He
1:08:29
made no bones about it.
1:08:31
He said I'm going to see that you
1:08:33
never practice law in the state of Missouri
1:08:35
again That's what he said to me and
1:08:37
I I laughed, you know But it's the
1:08:40
exact same thing when the system itself is
1:08:43
corrupt or allows corrupt a holes like this
1:08:46
To be in charge and doesn't do anything
1:08:49
about it That is the problem and this
1:08:53
is you know, there's no predictability, you know
1:08:58
Selective enforcement Destroys any predictability of a valid
1:09:04
system because a valid system doesn't exist and
1:09:07
So if you have again, he was pretty
1:09:09
blunt He said that when law becomes theater
1:09:13
finances a battlefield I Think that's true He
1:09:19
said that asset seizure isn't just theft it's
1:09:22
escalation Financial rules once weaponized Retaliation probably won't
1:09:29
be limited to court.
1:09:30
It will move into systems currencies and Alliances,
1:09:36
they'll create their own systems and that's what
1:09:38
they're doing Everybody is nobody's trading in the
1:09:41
dollar why and they're walking away from the
1:09:45
euro to know Everybody's trying to trade in
1:09:47
their own currencies anymore because of things like
1:09:51
this.
1:09:51
This is the paradox Aristovitch says Says that
1:09:59
when states abandon their own legal frameworks they
1:10:03
weaken themselves more than their enemies He said
1:10:05
almost identical thing and he said that legitimate
1:10:09
legitimacy lost Internally is harder to recover than
1:10:14
territory lost Externally Wow a state that can
1:10:20
regain land you know it can but it'll
1:10:25
struggle far harder to regain lost trust and
1:10:30
this is the paradox that Europe now faces
1:10:34
in Attempting to project some sort of resolve
1:10:38
It is undermining the very legal foundation that
1:10:43
once distinguished it as a as a better
1:10:47
than you know as a as a prime
1:10:50
example of how you should operate and this
1:10:54
erosion Doesn't occur in isolation It ripples outward
1:10:59
everywhere once emergency logic is normalized Every future
1:11:05
crisis will be justification for further exceptions Vetoes
1:11:11
are Obstacles, that's what they have been for
1:11:13
here.
1:11:14
That's why they took emergency powers because now
1:11:17
Orban can't veto it Orban can't veto nobody
1:11:21
else can veto because all it takes is
1:11:24
a emergency power Which is what's happened here
1:11:30
Parliamentary debate is inconvenient, so they don't have
1:11:33
to worry about it You know it's doesn't
1:11:36
legitimize anything because now you don't need it.
1:11:39
It's an emergency decision making concentrates in smaller
1:11:43
and smaller circles Just like in Ukraine You
1:11:48
know we see this already in the Committee
1:11:52
of permanent representatives Where decisions with massive geopolitical
1:11:59
Consequences are shaped far far from public scrutiny
1:12:04
This is why You know this is What's
1:12:09
happening?
1:12:10
It's governance by?
1:12:12
invisible procedures and Changes in the law with
1:12:16
zero accountability and There's a deeper danger When
1:12:21
law is reduced to a narrative device it
1:12:25
loses Its discipline Instead of constraining power it
1:12:32
decorates the power Instead of limiting escalation it
1:12:37
rationalizes it And once that happens as you
1:12:42
know escalation accelerates because there is no longer
1:12:46
a shared boundary a Respected boundary Look at
1:12:52
how quickly the conversation moved from freezing assets
1:12:55
to using them They're not just frozen We're
1:13:02
taking them from temporary measures to indefinite ones
1:13:06
You know first it was we're gonna take
1:13:08
the profits the interest payments.
1:13:11
I Think you know I think that was
1:13:13
BS.
1:13:14
You know, but they started keeping the interest
1:13:16
when using the interest to fund Ukraine over
1:13:20
here, this is this is a huge issue
1:13:22
and So the law is all as just
1:13:25
a narrative device.
1:13:27
You know it's it's nonsense From temporary measures
1:13:34
now, it's indefinite.
1:13:36
This is a temporary measure.
1:13:37
We're gonna freeze Russia's assets temporarily Trump says
1:13:41
he's gonna make sure it was part of
1:13:43
the the ultimate agreement that They get the
1:13:50
assets back they're trying to stop that for
1:13:55
us even now crazy crazy crazy So
1:14:08
let's connect this to the broader exhaustion that
1:14:11
we were discussing previously Europe certainly is not
1:14:17
making these decisions from a position of confidence
1:14:21
they're in a position of fatigue and The
1:14:25
fatigue is worse because the u.s. Has
1:14:30
vastly reduced Although they're still giving four hundred
1:14:34
million in 2026 and four hundred million according
1:14:39
to the to the Pentagon budget in 2027
1:14:44
It's a You know exhaustion and fatigue is
1:14:49
producing impatience They're supposed to be winning They
1:14:55
aren't this impatience is producing a shortcut and
1:15:00
Shortcuts produce precedent that will not be undone
1:15:05
so comparisons to earlier financial crises are You
1:15:11
know somewhat misleading in past crises emergency measures
1:15:15
were taken to stabilize the system here Emergency
1:15:20
measures are being taken to maintain the narrative
1:15:24
and force some sort of I Don't know
1:15:31
what some sort of reaction from Russia You
1:15:35
know they'll be sued.
1:15:37
I mean that's an easy reaction, and you
1:15:39
know that's a crucial distinction Stabilizing Seeks to
1:15:46
restore the equilibrium, but narrative Seeks to maintain
1:15:52
a record or postpone a reckoning you know
1:15:55
it's a You aren't getting a reckoning here
1:15:58
markets are good at detecting what the difference
1:16:01
is and I think the markets are gonna
1:16:03
kick the crap out of Europe for this
1:16:05
and We're already seeing those effect Capital flight
1:16:10
isn't dramatic.
1:16:11
It's quiet takes the form of diversification Hedging
1:16:16
reallocation Buying gold it You know it doesn't
1:16:21
announce itself Everywhere, but it does move and
1:16:26
once it moves.
1:16:27
It's not coming back quickly the same logic
1:16:30
applies to alliances states that trusted Europe You
1:16:37
know and European neutrality now reconsider their exposure
1:16:42
Not because they oppose Europe politically big because
1:16:45
they see that legal commitments are no longer
1:16:49
insulated from politics and This is where the
1:16:53
the phrase these globalist elitist a-holes in
1:16:59
their rules based order You know that they've
1:17:03
always talked about The rules only apply to
1:17:07
others, and it's always been that way, but
1:17:11
this Shows an absolute collapse of the rules
1:17:15
based order.
1:17:16
You know and you and If you mistook
1:17:20
mistook it before it said oh, no we
1:17:22
follow our own rules The West follows her
1:17:26
own room.
1:17:26
Maybe not we but You know the Western
1:17:30
elites certainly don't follow any sort of rules
1:17:33
based order they create their own rules for
1:17:38
thee, but not for me and You know
1:17:41
the rest of the world is seeing it
1:17:43
once again here we go and I've been
1:17:46
bitching about this for you know nearly an
1:17:48
hour and a half now and My entire
1:17:52
show was talking about this in the Hillary
1:17:55
Clintons of the world to get to wander
1:17:57
around the planet And tell people that you
1:18:00
know the rules based order This would be
1:18:02
the same lady going keep that money figure
1:18:05
out how to keep that 300 billion of
1:18:07
Russia's money and give it to Ukraine that'll
1:18:09
teach them you know teach Russia not to
1:18:12
not to do what we tell them to
1:18:14
do because Russia has to follow rules not
1:18:18
us We flex you know if we need
1:18:21
to we you know those rules for us
1:18:23
You know flexible So when European leaders insist
1:18:29
that asset seizures are legal because they say
1:18:32
so That means they ignore the own warnings
1:18:37
from their own Financial institution and trust me
1:18:41
markets are taking note of it when Australian
1:18:45
authorities insist that there is no immediate threat
1:18:49
until a huge violence and Violent Event occurs
1:18:56
the public takes note of that everywhere the
1:19:00
same pattern is emergency Institutions speak in the
1:19:04
language of stability, but they act in the
1:19:07
language of emergency This is why public fatigue
1:19:14
has replaced ideology People no longer want grand
1:19:19
narrative.
1:19:19
They want a system that is predictable and
1:19:22
works.
1:19:23
They want rules that apply Consistently you know
1:19:27
to everyone not just you know to you
1:19:30
and the elites get away with what they
1:19:32
want They want leaders who tell the truth
1:19:35
They don't they're not just a dance and
1:19:38
bear.
1:19:38
Don't sell me a performance.
1:19:40
I don't want a performance This is why
1:19:43
the current moments are so dangerous Because theater
1:19:48
is stopped working Theater doesn't work anymore Leaders
1:19:53
face a choice they can adapt they can
1:19:56
become boring competent honest administrators Or they can
1:20:02
escalate Doubling down on their own drama in
1:20:07
the hope that momentum will substitute for their
1:20:10
own legitimacy I Don't know history suggests that
1:20:14
many of them choose escalation Europe's legal improv
1:20:20
show round frozen assets Isn't about Ukraine.
1:20:24
It's about whether the law remains constraint on
1:20:27
power or is a justification to take more
1:20:30
power That question will shape financial systems Alliances
1:20:37
and conflict long after this war is over
1:20:42
Because once the precedent is set that assets
1:20:45
are contingent law is conditional an Emergency overrides
1:20:51
any sort of routine there is no clean
1:20:54
reset system doesn't snap back to reality It
1:20:57
adapts to a new reality a reality where
1:21:00
power decides first and Legality is followed afterward.
1:21:05
I've said this for a long time that
1:21:07
judges for the most part Decide who's gonna
1:21:12
win if they're writing a judgment They decide
1:21:16
who they want to win, and then they
1:21:18
find the law to support that position They
1:21:22
don't follow the law They pick who wins
1:21:25
and then find the law to get it
1:21:27
because you can find any law that you
1:21:29
want to You know that'll support your position.
1:21:33
You can always do that the the black
1:21:36
and white Pretty slim slim pickings black and
1:21:42
white it exists You know black is black
1:21:45
and white is white for example, but aren't
1:21:48
there various shades of it That's what any
1:21:50
lawyer would tell you there are shades to
1:21:52
it I Don't know When law becomes theater
1:21:59
and finances a weapon in the international system
1:22:01
itself begins to reorganize right That is the
1:22:08
world that follows the collapse of legal credibility,
1:22:12
and that's what we want to have a
1:22:13
look at next You know One of the
1:22:18
most important things to understand right now is
1:22:20
that Multipolarity doesn't arrive through declarations it arrives
1:22:25
through risk avoidance Through hedging what I was
1:22:28
talking about before through states quietly deciding that
1:22:32
dependency is more dangerous than inefficiency And that
1:22:36
process accelerates every time legal Predictability is sacrificed
1:22:41
for political expedience the moment Europe begins or
1:22:45
began seriously discussing the permanent seizure or repurposing
1:22:50
of Russian Sovereign assets the signal sent to
1:22:55
the rest of the world was unmistakable It
1:22:58
wasn't support Ukraine.
1:22:59
That was only how it was marketed the
1:23:02
signal is this Custody is conditional assets are
1:23:06
safe only so long as political alignment with
1:23:11
us is Acceptable is something that we accept
1:23:15
For countries watching from the global south from
1:23:18
Asia from the Middle East this is not
1:23:21
an abstract legal debate It's a practical lesson
1:23:24
if your reserves sit in a Western system.
1:23:27
They're not reserves Their leverage held by somebody
1:23:31
else So this is a world damaging event
1:23:36
this three hundred billion dollars three hundred billion
1:23:39
You know that ain't you know that's not
1:23:41
much You know in the big huge picture
1:23:44
of Russia and what Russia's got But this
1:23:47
is why alternative settlement systems didn't suddenly emerge
1:23:50
in 2022 They did accelerate the groundwork had
1:23:54
been laid long before What changed was how
1:23:58
urgently they needed to do it to you
1:24:01
know change?
1:24:02
Russia didn't invent De-dollarization China didn't invent
1:24:06
currency diversification India didn't invent bilateral settlement agreements
1:24:12
Without the dollar what changed was the speed
1:24:15
at which these ideas moved from contingency plans
1:24:17
to active policies in those countries One commentator
1:24:22
said in effect the West taught the world
1:24:25
a lesson it never intended to teach money
1:24:29
stored under someone else's rule Isn't really your
1:24:33
money and once that lesson sinks in behavior
1:24:36
changed permanently This is why bricks expansion matters
1:24:40
less for who joins than for what it
1:24:43
represents It's not an alliance in the NATO
1:24:46
sense.
1:24:46
It's a platform of options a Place where
1:24:49
states can transact without total exposure to Western
1:24:53
legal framework that only applies when you want
1:24:57
it to or Until you decide it doesn't
1:25:01
apply anymore Critics mocked these efforts as inefficient
1:25:06
fragmented technologically inferior, but that misses the point
1:25:11
Redundancy is inefficient by design it exists not
1:25:15
to maximize profit, but to minimize vulnerability Solovey
1:25:21
of argues that sanctions no longer function as
1:25:23
a primary economic punishment they function as an
1:25:27
educational tool I found this very interesting.
1:25:30
It's an educational tool.
1:25:32
They teach states which system is safe, and
1:25:35
which is not and Once taught these lessons
1:25:39
are not unlearned This is why the weaponization
1:25:43
of finance produces the opposite Intended effect over
1:25:47
time it doesn't isolate targets permanently Arguably Russia
1:25:52
isn't isolated at all it Incentivizes the alternatives
1:25:57
and alternatives once built don't just disappear because
1:26:01
the original pressure disappears Aristotle said the same
1:26:05
thing from a different angle He said that
1:26:08
Ukraine's tragedy isn't simply about invasion but structural
1:26:12
dependency upon others without sovereignty a State that
1:26:17
cannot maneuver economically or militarily without external approval
1:26:21
does not possess full Agency it survives only
1:26:25
by permission Then that's a scary thought coming
1:26:28
from a Ukraine Critic what's going on that
1:26:32
observation also goes beyond Ukraine it applies to
1:26:36
any state whose financial system trade route Legal
1:26:39
guarantee is interrupted by external decision makers Multipolarity
1:26:44
in this sense isn't about equality.
1:26:46
It's about escape This is why Constantine von
1:26:50
hofmeister zeste on darwinian Multipolarity resonates so strongly
1:26:54
he strips away the comforting language and says
1:26:57
that many diplomats You know what many diplomats
1:27:00
won't say Multipolarity isn't fair.
1:27:03
It isn't polite It is not cooperative by
1:27:07
default.
1:27:08
It's competitive Ruthless only states with real sovereignty
1:27:14
can afford neutrality Everybody else has to choose
1:27:18
alignment dependency upon others another country Sovereignty today
1:27:25
is not ideological.
1:27:26
It's infrastructural.
1:27:28
I talk about infrastructure all the time It's
1:27:30
the ability to settle trade Without permission to
1:27:34
move capital without fear of it being seized
1:27:37
to enforce law without an external veto So
1:27:41
Orban wants to enforce his own law to
1:27:44
defend your own territory without begging for authorization
1:27:47
This is where nuclear weapons re-enter the
1:27:50
conversation not as a moral issue But as
1:27:52
structural nuclear states occupy a different category because
1:27:56
they cannot be coerced without a risk huge
1:28:01
risk That reality shapes negotiations whether anybody admits
1:28:05
it or not now Let's get back to
1:28:07
the United States because American policymakers are not
1:28:10
blind to these shifts the national security strategy
1:28:14
we discussed last week Reflects this implicitly it
1:28:18
acknowledges rivalry openly it abandons the fantasy of
1:28:22
universal values it respects Resistance more than submission
1:28:29
and that distinction is critical It was noted
1:28:35
recently that Washington respects those who push back
1:28:38
while demanding obedience from those who comply That
1:28:42
isn't hypocrisy.
1:28:43
That's power logic resistant signals capacity compliant signals
1:28:47
dependency This is why Western Europe is in
1:28:51
such an uncomfortable position right now for decades
1:28:55
it acts outsourced strategic autonomy to Washington while
1:29:00
lecturing others about sovereignty Now as American priorities
1:29:04
have shifted Europe is discovering that dependency offers
1:29:07
no leverage when the patron is no longer
1:29:09
in interested an Improvisation under exhaustion is dangerous
1:29:17
Danger danger.
1:29:19
Well, I appreciate you for listening today I
1:29:21
didn't quite get through what I wanted to
1:29:22
get through, but I'll try to wrap that
1:29:24
up tomorrow for you I appreciate you being
1:29:26
here on international flavor where the truth just
1:29:29
tastes better You can hear us You know
1:29:34
all the recorded shows at international flavor dot
1:29:37
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1:29:40
go to damn radio dot-com forward slash
1:29:42
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1:29:44
wonderful shows here at damn radio dot-com
1:29:47
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1:29:48
I'm here every morning 730 to 9 a
1:29:52
.m. I Hope you join me all this
1:29:55
week could be entertaining.
1:29:57
Have a nice day