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War and negotiations under fire: The US, Israel, and Iran at the edge · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:11
  It's the tip of the spare in the epic battle to defend the United States of America.
• 0:19
  The National Security Hour exposes the wolves in sheep's clothing and the nefarious plots to undermine and destroy U.S.
• 0:27
  national security.
• 0:31
  Welcome back, America.
• 0:32
  This is your host of the National Security Hour for the 2nd of April 2026 with your host, Fred Galvin.
• 0:41
  And now it's time.
• 0:46
  Thank you again for joining us, everyone.
• 0:49
  We have a very important update to talk about.
• 0:52
  And possibly by the time that you hear this, things have already changed, just like we mentioned on last week's show, and want to focus on the current events.
• 1:02
  Not everybody likes to hear everything focused on one subject, but this is the national security hour.
• 1:10
  We will talk about national security because it's very important.
• 1:14
  And the most important thing we're talking about right now, among so many other things involving national security, but the world is focused right now on what is going on in the Middle East because it involves not just the present term, but again in the future, if uh the United States backs out of this, if Israel backs out of this, if other coalition countries do not join in and uh continue to apply the pressure on Tehran and its leaders, we will have ongoing problems with terrorism and with the threat of future attacks across the region and across the world, as well as having a global commodity that's required for all countries, that being uh crude oil be held hostage, and you know, there's many other options that we're looking at, or that I shouldn't say we that our leaders across the globe are looking at, but nothing right now makes sense other than the capitulation of the demands of what Israel is uh or correction of what Iran is saying uh is a red lines, and we're gonna get into those here today on the show.
• 2:37
  Uh this is very important, and we're seeing what could be some uh potential negotiations.
• 2:45
  My personal opinion, and we'll talk about these negotiations is I don't think these negotiations at this time are ready, and I think it's going to require continued pounding um as we're back to action after a slight pause, uh, but we are uh continuing to have U.S.
• 3:09
  air attacks go on against Iran, and uh there is now the threat of uh increasing the escalation by sending in United States Marines from possibly one and soon the potential for another Marine Expeditionary unit that is heading to the region, the USS Boxer from uh the West Coast of the United States.
• 3:33
  So we will see, but uh let's get into today's uh discussion with this uh United States and Israeli war against Iran, which is still very active while there are ongoing negotiations that are contested, and our leaders in the Pentagon have been uh focused on publishing what our requirements are to reach peace through diplomacy with Iran, but Iran's terms they're so hardlined.
• 4:13
  I don't know that's why I said up front in the open.
• 4:17
  I do not believe that we're going to reach an agreement with the current Iranian leadership, and I think it's mutually incompatible at this point in time.
• 4:27
  That's just myself saying that as my own opinion.
• 4:31
  So um now there's a number of other factors that are in progress, and those being um as we look closest to the theater, we have Gulf states, uh, and we're gonna get into naming some of them later on in the show, but they seem to be split between de-escalating as well as some want tougher uh sanctions and demands against Iran, and then we also have other countries, those being China and Pakistan, they're openly driving towards more talks, and then now we're also seeing uh Russia beginning to position for diplomatic relevance in this, and uh hopefully it stays at that.
• 5:23
  I think Russia and China have been observing very patiently and seeing what the outcome can be, and um but they they both have stakes in this, and uh obviously the enemy of their uh for China and Russia is the United States, and obviously they're going to try to support uh Iran in this, and uh we will see.
• 5:53
  We'll also see what happens with other NATO governments in this continuing uh saga.
• 6:00
  But anyway, we uh let's let's get into this and talk about the defining feature of this crisis, and uh that is that we are trying to bargain through negotiations while we have ongoing combat operations in progress, uh, applying that pressure every single day.
• 6:27
  And there are a lot of people now uh choosing sides in the United States and around the globe.
• 6:35
  It's it's just so premature to tell what can happen.
• 6:41
  But I do believe that every day that we are treating, and it's gonna, as I previously said stated, it is gonna take a very long time to, if ever, where we're going to have all of the Iranian soldiers in such a position that they decide to capitulate.
• 6:59
  But we are receiving reports.
• 7:02
  We don't know the veracity of these reports, but that there are many desertions in uh the Iranian uh military, and obviously their communications are broken down, so uh it's just hard to get good accurate information and reporting out of anywhere in Iran right now, but it appears that they they do have some breakdowns in morale and in discipline, and this could set things up for some game-changing situations where the Iranian people do rise up, but that is going to require continued uh air support and likely uh some boots on the ground uh from potentially uh the United States and uh, but that's that's uncertain.
• 7:57
  That's not something that um our Pentagon leadership or President Trump has said uh that they want to do, they want to keep their cards close to their chest, and we will see what, if anything comes about, if there should be uh potential for using American ground forces or ground forces from any other country or um whether it's the push murga, uh so time will tell.
• 8:23
  But uh, we are positioning ourselves to be able to do that on a periphery.
• 8:28
  Uh my personal opinion on that is that that leaves us very vulnerable.
• 8:35
  And uh I was listening to I'll call it a rogue uh podcast with on the Sean Ryan show, which uh, you know, they had uh guest, Joe Kent, and I've mentioned him before.
• 8:50
  He's uh done remarkable things while he was in uniform and uh uh had some service with the Central Intelligence Agency's uh special activities division.
• 9:01
  But the problem with Joe Kent is he can't make up his mind on what uh political party he's affiliated with.
• 9:08
  He's tried all three.
• 9:09
  Uh Republican independent, uh Democrat, independent, Republican.
• 9:15
  He's made bold statements that Iran is a very serious threat, and then he's backed away from that now.
• 9:24
  Uh, who knows is rationale.
• 9:26
  But I will say this.
• 9:28
  Joe Kent's not stupid.
• 9:30
  Joe Kent knows what he's doing.
• 9:33
  And if I were a betting man on this, I would say Joe Kent, not to make this uh subject in this show about him today, but I'd say Joe Kent is uh positioning for some future political run again.
• 9:46
  Uh who knows what party he may uh ally himself with.
• 9:50
  Uh but I'm getting a sense of that what he that's what he is uh doing that he's he knows what he's talking about, he knew what he was talking about.
• 10:00
  About in the past, and Iran has uh serious threats towards the United States for over 47 years, and it is justified when uh they continue to attack our military forces all across the theater and our political officials at home, and they've done this uh you know starting when I was a young kid, 1979, and holding 52 Americans hostage.
• 10:27
  It's time to solve this problem once and for all.
• 10:30
  And um, but to get off of the situation with Joe Kent, I don't and back on track with what we need to focus on.
• 10:40
  And are there peace negotiations possible now?
• 10:44
  Talk about that a little bit later, but my opinion is it's not ready at this moment.
• 10:50
  It's going to take further deterioration of Iranian senior leaders, and uh, and that is going on every single day.
• 10:59
  So we will see how disciplined their military is, and uh the morale of that if it continues or if it breaks down, and if there is some possibility of a revolt inside Iran, but I I think that day could come.
• 11:15
  But anyway, we are continuing to apply pressure.
• 11:19
  Uh the Gulf states, just like uh we were mentioning with uh Pakistan and China and Russia, everybody's in observation mode right now.
• 11:31
  Um obviously a lot of these missiles and drones that are being launched from Iran are hitting a lot of these Gulf states in some of the civilian infrastructure, so that's why I believe some Gulf states want to um refrain from a lot of attacks on their civilian infrastructure.
• 11:50
  But uh, I know some of them, and we're gonna name some names soon, but this is uh this is something that we need to focus on because I guarantee Marco Rubio in our Department of State and uh with military advisors are going in and doing full court presses with our partners and allies in the Gulf states and in Europe, and so this is what the United States does best is work with coalitions, and this is a pressure situation.
• 12:25
  Uh, and once things get to a position where it will be untenable, and I think that will be soon because we're gonna describe three potential courses of action that uh are ways out for Iran and that um how this could play out.
• 12:46
  So we're gonna get into that in uh segmenting in just a little bit.
• 12:51
  But right now, we are seeing no formal face-to-face talks, but rather we've recently heard uh just within the last day here that President Trump and Secretary Rubio, they're they're now discussing that the conflict could potentially wind down.
• 13:12
  Um even without a formal deal, is some of the latest words.
• 13:17
  And again, this is very dynamic.
• 13:19
  It can change at any time.
• 13:22
  So uh what you're hearing by the time you are hearing this broadcast, it can uh definitely have already changed.
• 13:31
  But uh I'm just telling you as far as what has been reported immediately by the commander-in-chief and secretary uh state uh what is going on.
• 13:43
  Um there is a lot of uncertainty and things are very volatile.
• 13:49
  Uh our leaders in the Pentagon, they are pushing hard, very hard to coerce a surrender from Iran, and I don't think, and that uh shows you how focused their leaders are and hellbent for uh getting weapons and fighting a war.
• 14:11
  Uh, we saw on February 27th, they walked away from negotiation tables that said that uh you can have nuclear energy for civilian purposes forever for free, and they walked away from the table on that.
• 14:27
  So they want weapons, and their current regime is not going to back down from that.
• 14:31
  So I think it's going to require further attrition of their leaders, and uh we'll see what uh what the outcome is in here in the future.
• 14:44
  But the United States has sent uh sent in Steve Whitkoff, um, and he is he's been reporting the news with several of these messages exchanged with Iran.
• 14:56
  We're not again doing anything face to face, uh, but they're it's applying pressure and it's posturing, it's probably going nowhere, in my opinion, uh, as it's not face-to-face, it's not through intermediaries, and that is why the United States, you know, we had this 10-day period where we're doing uh slight pause in some of the ongoing heavy military operations, but that is resumed, and you know, we'll we'll see what happens here in the future.
• 15:30
  But this uh war, it's going on without boots on the ground right now, and that's you know, we've the casualty toll, which we talked about last week.
• 15:43
  Unfortunately, it's increased with those being wounded and seriously wounded.
• 15:48
  Uh, we have not had any more deaths as the time that I'm record recording this from from last week, thank God, and let's hopefully it uh it stays that way.
• 15:58
  Uh but let's look at what on the U.S.
• 16:01
  side of these negotiations, what our Pentagon is looking at.
• 16:06
  You know, we've offered up this 15-point framework.
• 16:09
  Um we're working with Pakistan as an intermediary on this.
• 16:15
  Um, but of those 15-point framework, there's four very critical ones that the United States is demanding, and that is the obvious ones, and that is the removal of all of Iran's highly enriched Iranium.
• 16:32
  Uh, is one the second uh is we are seeking the end to Iran's Iranium enrichment.
• 16:39
  Three, that we want to significantly reduce their ballistic missile program, and then four is to have a complete end in all of Iran's support for uh regional uh terrorism, uh especially with uh Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi rebels, and Iranian militias that are operating throughout the Middle East, especially in Iran and Iraq and Syria.
• 17:07
  So um we also a few of the other items, no weaponization, no stockpiling of nuclear material, and uh a complete turnover of enriched uranium and decommissioning Ford O.
• 17:22
  So those are what the United States is uh pushing as red lines.
• 17:26
  Uh Iran has rejected those, and Iran has given a list of their own demands, and we're gonna talk about that right after we get back from this commercial break, so don't go away.
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  Welcome back, America.
• 19:35
  This is your host, Fred Galvin, the National Security Hour.
• 19:39
  We uh let me speak on a few more of our red lines because the Pentagon has as well as our uh State Department said it's very clear that another one of these red lines, not just a uh military option that goes on inside Iran, but that the Strait of Hormuz.
• 20:00
  Will be reopened.
• 20:02
  And President Trump has tied that directly with the ongoing negotiations so that any Iranian closure of the straits is a U.S.
• 20:18
  red line.
• 20:19
  So we are seeking to coerce other allies in the region, other Gulf states to put pressure on Iran.
• 20:29
  They definitely have investment interests in opening up the Straits of Hormuz.
• 20:37
  As uh every day that that remains closed.
• 20:39
  Now some nations are able to have some shipments go in other directions, but it's nothing like having kingpin shipments on these massive open uh liners transport the oil that is meant to go out and uh through ships, it cannot be done through pipelines or uh driving it on uh tractor trailers.
• 21:03
  That's that's just a drop in the bucket.
• 21:06
  So but uh you know, these other red lines, as far as uh Iranians missile and drone program, that is what we are seeking to completely shut down.
• 21:21
  So um this is uh this is extremely important, and it's also putting pressure on global oil prices, and that is leading a lot of our other allies and partners, especially in Europe and around the world to now everybody's feeling the pain as gas across at least the United States is going up on average uh above four dollars a gallon, and that is that is putting a lot of political pressure on people to reach a resolution.
• 21:54
  So we'll we will see what's going on, and hopefully we do not capitulate on that.
• 22:00
  I know you know, we're at one month of uh you know, Congress, we're supposed to have the consent of Congress if we're going beyond 60 days, so we'll see if that happens or not.
• 22:13
  I do believe even if Congress doesn't have the votes to pass this, we're going to keep uh certain assets in region at least one carrier presence, and we will see how things go.
• 22:27
  Um we may uh or may not have American boots on the ground, but we are putting the pressure in into play right now so that if need be, uh, we've had elements of the 82nd airborne division out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, as well as these two marine expeditionary forces that uh now we're really rationing up the pressure with tens of thousands of American offensive boots on the ground forces being sent into the region, and that's uh that is able to change some things, but uh it's going to take the Iranian people who want this and who can rise up if they want a to have a free country uh free from the terrorism and the mur mass murders that had been going on.
• 23:21
  Um so let's look now at what Iran is demanding on their side.
• 23:27
  Uh so Iran's stated they have demands and they want a permanent end to the war.
• 23:37
  Um, but then they also want compensation for wartime destruction.
• 23:41
  And I actually think uh that is something that our State Department is likely talking to other Gulf State actors that you know, can we meet that?
• 23:53
  You know, is our other Gulf state actors willing to uh to go in on that.
• 23:58
  I don't think President Trump's eager to have the United States taxpayers pay for the damage and destruction to Iran's infrastructure.
• 24:07
  Um but we'll see.
• 24:10
  Uh they also Iran wants a guarantee against future military action, and that is something like I mentioned before, that's mutually incompatible.
• 24:19
  There's no way the United States is going to allow this military to continue to possibly rebuild and regroup and have ourselves sign something that says you know, we've guaranteed that we will not have any future military actions.
• 24:38
  That's a guarantee that's off the table.
• 24:40
  But Iran, as well as like North Korea, these are countries, as we've mentioned many years.
• 24:47
  I think George Bush Jr.
• 24:49
  was the one that uh had mentioned that uh this is an axis of evil, and they always when they negotiate just like North Korea and Iran, it's always from a position of they're putting hard lines out there that there's no way that the United States is ever going to agree to that.
• 25:07
  So Iran is also asking or you know, their demands is a terrorist country, they're demanding that they have no limits on their ballistic missile program.
• 25:23
  Um and I don't believe that the United States is going to.
• 25:27
  I mean, obviously, they're building those ballistic missiles for a reason, and they they want to be able to threaten um the rest of the theater and potentially the United States as well as our personnel and facilities overseas, and they will do that if uh so that's that's not a something that the United States is going to agree upon whatsoever at all.
• 25:54
  We are not going to have them have the ability to uh buy some nuclear weapons from Russia or China or anywhere else and put it on to some ballistic missile and fire it anywhere within the region.
• 26:06
  So that's that's something that's off the table.
• 26:08
  Although they have missiles and they're firing across the region right now.
• 26:12
  Uh we're we're seeking an end to their ballistic missile program, especially anything that could ever be um long range and significantly threatened uh large assets like they've already hit in Bahrain, they've hit targets as far away as Jordan.
• 26:29
  Um they do have uh capabilities, and like we've seen that they have militias outside of Iran that are taking shots and have hit various aircraft of the United States, and that's uh that is something that we're changing our tactics because that some of these uh stealth aircraft that have been hit during the day.
• 26:50
  That's um that's something that we're going to change our procedures so that we don't uh have these, even though that we've degraded their capabilities so much, some of these militias are able to uh have effects on our advanced aircraft.
• 27:09
  And uh we're just going to continue to make some changes, but hope hopefully we get other allies and partners in involved to continue this pressure and to continue to a trip and allow hopefully a Iranian-based uprising to occur where you know they can we can support another government uh rising, someone that's not based on uh radicalism and clerics that uh continue to chant death to America.
• 27:43
  So um one of the other demands from Iran is that Lebanon is included in any ceasefire agreement arrangements, and uh I don't believe that this is something that the United States is going to uh concede to at all either.
• 28:05
  Um Tehran is also demanding that the all of American bases in the Gulf be closed, and uh that's one of their conditions, and there is there's just no way you know basically America wants end of nuclear weapons, open up the straits, and Iran's side is just so off the wall, it's almost like Osam bin Laden was coming up with these these terms that close all US bases in the region, get America out of the Gulf.
• 28:42
  Um I'll tell you right now, that's not gonna happen.
• 28:45
  That just shows you the mindset of this radical ideology that's uh still existing in Tehran.
• 28:51
  And what I see is that we're gonna continue to apply maximum pressure and remove that leadership so that this this mindset that's currently in progress ends.
• 29:05
  But um bottom line is we will not give up on diplomacy in the United States, and what you know we cannot fully impose militarily.
• 29:20
  Uh we will seek to have other allies and partners to include Israel and hopefully Gulf State nations and potentially whether it's even in defensive roles, other NATO allies uh become involved in some way because right now everybody's feeling the pain uh as far as the cost.
• 29:41
  And I I don't see what uh Donald Trump has recently said as far as you know, we just made leave.
• 29:47
  I think that's a bluff, and uh we will see, but I I highly doubt that we're just gonna pull chalks and have a full withdrawal.
• 29:58
  Um
• 30:00
  So I don't see Iran being flexible at this time.
• 30:06
  I don't see them surrendering.
• 30:08
  At least not when it involves the sovereignty of their missiles and their ability to generate uh nuclear grade uranium.
• 30:18
  That's something I think all their leaders are pushing on with, and that's one of their red lines, and that's mutually incompatible.
• 30:28
  We're there's no way we're going to in the United States agree to any kind of term like that.
• 30:36
  Uh let's also look at it from uh the third side of the coin, Israel side.
• 30:42
  Uh Israel is in this fight, and they're very committed to doing it.
• 30:47
  They're doing mass amounts of sorties.
• 30:50
  Uh, they still have a ton of targets left, so they're collecting uh a lot of intelligence uh this very reliable, and they're continuing to target that.
• 31:00
  Uh and you know, we'll see how this continues to go.
• 31:06
  If it's supposed to go four to six weeks, we're at the four-week mark.
• 31:09
  We'll see where we're at with two more weeks.
• 31:12
  Uh, but uh Israel, I do not believe is going to back down unless there is some kind of peace negotiation, and that peace negotiation has to be on terms that uh the leaders in this, and that's the United States agreed to.
• 31:27
  Uh but uh Iran or uh excuse me, Israel, they will do everything to preserve their options for future preemptive strikes.
• 31:40
  They're never gonna give that up.
• 31:42
  And uh so any kind of agreement that goes on, you know, if it's trying to have us reach out to our allies in Israel and say, hey, they they have to give up, you know, future preemptive strike.
• 31:56
  There's there is no way, I believe uh Israel will not, and we don't control Israel, obviously.
• 32:02
  Uh, but those kind of demands that Tyran has they're again mutually incompatible.
• 32:10
  It's there's no way Israel or the United States is gonna ever you know reach any kind of agreement like that.
• 32:16
  That's those that kind of rhetoric is colliding with something that's just it's outside the realm of reality and it's absurd.
• 32:30
  Uh so uh but what uh Israel, their officials, you know, they've talked about um their concerns over the Pentagon making concessions in the talk, and they're hoping that we do not uh just back out easily uh and try to agree to something that they do not.
• 32:53
  Um so we'll we'll see more on on that, but I again I don't believe we're at the point right now where it's ripe that there's going to be any kind of agreement reached with the leaders that exist in Tehran.
• 33:06
  I I do believe uh now the ball is in the United States court, as we have significant amount of air defense just obliterated as Donald Trump likes to say, and we're going to continue now to take max advantage with using stealth aircraft uh at night to avoid um acquisition of our aircraft, and we're just going to continue to use precision guided munitions and drop on areas uh that uh are known enemy positions.
• 33:39
  Um but finally Israel, they're looking for a way to reach some settlement that locks in their freedoms of action, and oppositely Iran wants a settlement that ends freedom of action against Iran.
• 33:58
  Um they uh there's again strong contradiction there.
• 34:04
  And is that something that's going to be reached?
• 34:06
  No.
• 34:07
  That's why I don't think negotiations are going to be reached anytime soon.
• 34:13
  Um let's look at all the actors again.
• 34:16
  We have the United States, and we are the central actor that's trying to drive negotiations and and reach some type of settlement.
• 34:28
  Um of course we want to eliminate the threat, but we also want to uh make sure that this global commodity of crude oil is not uh threatened and raising uh inflation prices all around the world.
• 34:44
  That's something that is our concern in the United States.
• 34:48
  Israel, their focus right now is to lock in the degradation of Iran's missile, uh, their military and their nuclear capabilities now and in the future, and to eliminate Iran's proxy capabilities.
• 35:08
  They want to make sure that uh takes out, and they're going to do everything in Iran to avoid any type of an agreement that restricts or restrains any future Israeli preemptive strikes on Iran.
• 35:24
  There's no way that is what we say that dog does not hunt in the military.
• 35:29
  Um now let's go on to the position of various countries inside the Gulf states and how either they're aligned or they're not.
• 35:38
  Well, I'll tell you right now, they are not aligned.
• 35:41
  And you have on one side gutter, Oman, Kuwait, and they're pressing to have a quiet and rapid end to this war.
• 35:52
  Uh they are afraid and they have concerns on you know further loss uh through uh retaliation, you know, of Iran firing weapons continuing to fire weapons, I should say, into their countries, and uh they're afraid of the economic damage.
• 36:13
  Uh so you have other countries, especially the Emiratis, the Saudi Saudis and the Bahrainis, they're all right now analyzing and looking at um what are the potential if they got involved in what a post-war Iran looks like, and uh they want to make sure that um I think they could join in on the fight.
• 36:46
  Uh, that is speculation on my part.
• 36:48
  It's it's just something that I think those countries have a greater capability and are more likely uh to instead of allowing you know continuous missiles and drones hit uh their civilian infrastructure, they are more likely to join in with other coalition, especially if the American forces withdraw uh close closes up the straits.
• 37:12
  Uh, none of those Gulf states want that to happen.
• 37:15
  And uh they're their leaders were are set to lose billions of dollars, billions and billions of dollars.
• 37:23
  So we're gonna talk more about this and how other actors such as Pakistan and some other countries like China are involved in this process.
• 37:30
  So don't go away, we'll be right back.
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• 38:37
  Welcome back, America.
• 38:38
  This is your host, Fred Galvin.
• 38:41
  Let's pick back up right where we talked off with some of these other intermediaries, intermediaries, uh, specifically with Pakistan.
• 38:52
  And right now, they are key in uh reaching some potential agreement through the United States, which since we're not doing face-to-face negotiations, we are passing proposals uh continuously back and forth through our envoy uh as well as um uh through our State Department, uh and we're looking at continuing to include other partners and holding talks uh with various parties to include uh the Turks, Egyptians, the Saudis, um in seeing who is able to uh continue to come to our side and uh put pressure on Iran.
• 39:42
  Um also as I mentioned and I'll mention again, China is another one of these actors in both China and Russia.
• 39:50
  Uh they're they're pushing well, China's pushing for immediate ceasefire and safe navigation through the Straits of Hamoos because you know they they need
• 40:00
  Oil and they need oil very badly.
• 40:02
  And the longer this goes on, the less capable they are, and less effective they are as a nation and as their national military.
• 40:11
  So they want energy security, maritime stability.
• 40:15
  Um, and and that can be something that um the United States, especially is here in the month of April.
• 40:25
  Donald Trump is supposed to be, you know, we'll see if it does go through, uh, supposed to be meeting with uh Chinese uh President Xi Jinping.
• 40:33
  We'll see if that happens, but the Chinese definitely are not enjoying having uh Venezuelan oil and Iranian oil uh cut off.
• 40:47
  That's uh that's something that really impacts their calculus.
• 40:52
  Again, that could drive them closer into the arms of Russia, and hopefully not, but we will see.
• 40:58
  Uh, Russia is also one of these other um actors, and they've been discussing uh some type of settlement prospects with Iran.
• 41:10
  Um so they are they're seeking now to become involved in this political and diplomatic channels.
• 41:18
  We'll see how, and uh if they do that at all, uh the European Union uh is stressed that they want a lasting diplomatic solution.
• 41:32
  Uh, with them it's uh doubtful that they're uh the European Union specifically is going to have anything that brings about any type of long-term change.
• 41:44
  But when we're talking about uh NATO, uh France and Italy, they're already saying that uh they're pushing back on some of the American and Israeli operations, and they don't support that, which is unfortunate, especially with Italy to hear comments like that.
• 42:07
  Um, with gutter, they've uh they've also said, hey, we we want to continue talks, but they don't want to have any direct role in mediating.
• 42:21
  I think they're doing that to remain neutral.
• 42:23
  Uh so they're trying to be the Switzerland of the Gulf states, uh, trying to protect their assets and not get shelled by or continue to be shelled by the Iranians.
• 42:36
  Uh so there's no specific single mediation track.
• 42:42
  Uh, there is some uh patchwork of states with different fears, different uh dependencies, and we'll see what the outcome uh means.
• 42:54
  So it's all about these red lines, which we've talked about, you know, for the U.S.
• 42:58
  red lines for Iran, red lines for Israel, um, Gulf state cunt nations, uh, what their red lines are, and it's very hard to get everybody to agree on things, and that's why I think uh of these different options, President Trump is going to continue to apply military pressure because there is no diplomatic clear way ahead at this time, you know, our Iran wants all these ridiculous guarantees, which just are they're never going to possibly happen.
• 43:31
  So uh let's look at what Fred Galvin's opinion is, and I will say I I think these are probably being considered in some of this negotiation and possible options.
• 43:46
  Uh, but uh these are more along the lines of outcomes.
• 43:50
  And one is in scenario or course of action one, I believe negotiations can likely fail, and the war will broaden, if you ask me.
• 44:01
  These negotiations, the terms right now are not acceptable, and so I think the war will broaden, and and that's going to I am under the belief that I think some in the Gulf states will support in some different roles.
• 44:19
  That could be uh security roles, but I think some as I mentioned, some of the Saudis and Emirates, they may likely choose side and not want to sit on the sidelines.
• 44:32
  Uh, they may have some courage and take some bold moves to um they understand that's gonna likely impact them as far as literally some Iranian missiles impacting them, but they have defense systems, and I think they are realizing that the longer they sit on the sidelines, they can stomach it you know, for a month, like they have, but it's going to soon if this goes on long duration, it's gonna cost them.
• 45:01
  So I I see them having potential, them being Emiratis and Saudis entering in in some kind of capacity, whether that's a maritime role or maritime and air role, um, you know, time will be able to tell.
• 45:17
  Uh, but uh I believe they will continue to support American operations in the theater.
• 45:24
  But um, let's look at course of action too.
• 45:30
  And this is something I would say is what we call the military a throwaway course of action, that this mediation that's ongoing right now, that somehow, some way maybe you have to always look at the possibility.
• 45:46
  That's why you do war gaming and um different analysis.
• 45:52
  Uh because you know, they could have leaders that are attrited, and then the succession, somebody may decide, okay, we're gonna do this, or they could have some kind of revolt and they have uh one or more uh leader or leaders factions.
• 46:10
  Uh, you know, we'll see what happens with all about that.
• 46:13
  But um so course of action too.
• 46:17
  I think there's a possibility, time will tell.
• 46:21
  I'm definitely not going out on limb like this, like I was with saying that we are going to start to have a war with Iran, which I did call that uh months ahead of time, and I know I was opening myself up to a lot of criticism, but as a retiree, I really don't uh I don't mind that.
• 46:43
  But there can be course of action to successful mediation, um, and some kind of workable settlement.
• 46:53
  Um that I think is going to happen if new leadership rises in Iran and they they see the light, uh, but um I think it's going to be very difficult.
• 47:07
  There's a lot of countries uh lined up that I think would be uh would be open to that in the Gulf states, you know, in supportive of them stepping up to the plate and uh making some type of a deal.
• 47:23
  So is it possible right now?
• 47:25
  I would say no.
• 47:27
  I think it's going to take further decapitation of senior leaders, and it's obviously difficult when Iranian oil is being shut down, and it's not just everybody else's oil, it's not coming out of the Gulf, it's Iran's oil, it's not coming out of the Gulf either.
• 47:44
  So they're they're losing a lot of uh revenue, a lot of uh income sources every week that this goes on and it weakens them, where it doesn't obviously this is costing America a lot of money, and uh you see these left-wing news channels are talking about how every day you know how expensive it is for the United States, which I do believe we're able to sustain that.
• 48:12
  Um these same people that are bringing that up.
• 48:14
  They never brought up the expenses involved in the operations that we were continuing to do out in the Persian Gulf with our in the uh Gulf of Oman and Gulf of Aden, where different various Houthi rebels were launching uh anti-ship missiles and drones at our Navy uh vessels, and we are setting up you know, that's why Pete Heggseth has been so focused on the innovation and improving our various drone capabilities because we can't just be launching multi-million dollar missiles every single time.
• 48:53
  There's a hundred dollar cheap drone, kamikaze drone flown at a ship.
• 48:58
  But they were doing that, and the reason I bring that up is nobody seemed to care for four years how much of that was going on, and it was been going on since you know, right after the seven October 2021 attack on Israel, we were receiving hundreds and hundreds of attacks across the Middle East, our forces in Iraq and in Syria and our ships at sea, but uh that cost analysis, it was never anything that was uh publicly even brought up, nor was you know, the cost of just sending almost a blank check and unlimited amount of checks in the checkbook to Ukraine.
• 49:40
  Uh, those numbers they weren't concerned, and most of importantly, I do remember the Military Times is the one source I read, and I've searched many sources on this matter that right after 7 October 2021 until February of
• 50:00
  Of 2022, and you know, we're we're talking you know, about four and a half months, uh, that four and a half months after the Israel was attacked.
• 50:11
  The had uh the Military Times request a Freedom of Information Act into the Pentagon, and they asked how many uh American military uh have been wounded, killed, and how many attacks.
• 50:24
  There was over 186 attacks in those four and a half months and hundreds of casualties.
• 50:29
  Uh, but that information, my point is wasn't freely available to the press.
• 50:34
  And so all these people that said, you know, we have 13 killed, and we have hundreds now that are wounded, but only a few serious wounds, and those, especially the serious wounds.
• 50:43
  I mean, any America that's wounded in action, and those seriously wounded in action, we don't want that happen.
• 50:49
  This killed in action, definitely not.
• 50:52
  Uh but we are facing somebody that's fighting us very aggressively, and were they attacked?
• 51:00
  Yes, but you have to look at the action that started some of these reactions, and that is we had a series of 47 years.
• 51:08
  So when they said there's no imminent threat, there is an imminent threat.
• 51:12
  Now, is it catastrophic for every city in America?
• 51:16
  No, I won't say that, but I will say that they have been targeting American citizens at high levels and at low levels all across the world, and we have felt that infliction of the Iranian radical uh their operatives as well as their proxies, and that's what has to stop.
• 51:38
  So one other course of action is that we the United States, and this is what Donald Trump was mentioning here at the beginning of this week, is that we may just leave, we may get out of the area.
• 51:52
  And I don't, as I said, even if this course of action is chosen and they they look to leave, there always are going to be U.S.
• 51:59
  military assets sitting uh based in Kuwait, uh, based in uh Bahrain and others in uh Doha, those those people are going to uh remain there, but how much surge force we we could leave some behind.
• 52:17
  We just don't know.
• 52:18
  And I do believe that it's going to be set up on conditions, not on a timeline.
• 52:24
  So we will leave people there as necessary with assets uh and resources to continue to attrition until they capitulate.
• 52:35
  That's where I think we're going with this.
• 52:36
  So limited role, maybe, but I think we're going to have when it's limited, it means there's still some of the United States, and it all depends on our allies and partners how much they decide to get involved in this war.
• 52:53
  But that's what is something that the United States does best is it works with a coalition of the willing.
• 53:01
  And is that something that NATO will get involved in?
• 53:05
  We we would hope so, but uh we're starting to see some of that uh continue to be polarized, and they don't want to end up on the US side.
• 53:16
  Time will tell.
• 53:17
  Um, so my assessment is that there won't be immediate peace.
• 53:23
  We're going to continue to pound them very different aggressively with Israel, and we could likely have one or more, possibly up to three Gulf state nations, uh, continue in some capacity for support of the United States and Israel on this.
• 53:43
  Um those potentially being most likely the Saudis and the Emiratis.
• 53:51
  And uh they have uh greater wealth and greater resources in their military.
• 53:56
  So time will tell.
• 53:58
  Uh the war, it's closer to some type of a pause.
• 54:04
  I know when the markets rally, everybody wants to think that's it's completely over.
• 54:08
  But the real question that we have to answer is no longer whether these messages and these negotiations are being exchanged.
• 54:18
  We know they are.
• 54:19
  The question is whether any side is too prepared to cross some of these red lines, um, instead of continue to slug it out in the fight.
• 54:31
  So that is our show for today.
• 54:35
  Thank you so much again for tuning in.
• 54:37
  Um there is there's so much going on in the military, and we'll see what happens over the next week there in Iran.
• 54:45
  But uh I guarantee, well, I shouldn't say guarantee, I truly do believe this time next week we'll still be fighting in Iran unless something's significant, unexpected, and they're they're always having classified meetings, and uh I don't have access to that information, but they're trying to find the most senior leaders available in Iran and target them.
• 55:14
  And when people criticize, and I believe it's foolishly and and done in the wrong way, but they they're quick to criticize Israel and try to say that you know they don't want to fight the Israel's war, and why are we giving so much money to Israel?
• 55:30
  We're giving so much money to Israel because there's countries that want to wipe Israel off the face of the map, and also we're giving money to Israel because they use it very efficiently, and when we want access to information, and they want uh military resources, and we give them money, we give money to many, many, many countries.
• 55:52
  So you have to understand uh that Israel, it's not just Israel, we give money to and when I hear all these people on various parties talk about you know, why are we given so much money to Israel?
• 56:06
  It's like they don't these weren't people that cared, you know, we were giving money to the Taliban uh to the tune of over 40 million dollars a week in cash, or that we are giving money to various other causes, uh whether it's USAID or whether it's uh learning centers in Minnesota, but it's just been bizarre and over the top.
• 56:27
  So anyway, I appreciate you joining in for me in with me today.
• 56:31
  Uh please, when this comes out, please send it out uh via email to your friends and network, and until next week, God bless you.
• 56:39
  God bless the United States and God bless our American service members, their sons and daughters for the boy, especially fighting for America right now.
• 56:47
  So thank you and God bless you.