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Jul 17 | Commodity Week · Commodity Week

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: This is the July 17 edition of Commodity Week.
• 0:09
  announcer: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 0:14
  Todd Gleason: Well, welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Naomi Bloem. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Jim McCormick is here at agmarket.net in Barrington, Illinois.
• 0:27
  And Mike Zusolo joins us from globalcomresearch.com in Atchison, Kansas. Thank you all for being with us. I think we'll start with a list of items that we might want to discuss for the day. Mike Zuslow, I'll start with you. What's on your mind this week?
• 0:44
  Mike Zuzolo: You know, post July 4 and post WASDE report, we've seen the market try and lurch towards a low and wondering whether this might not be maybe a commodity demand low in general as trade confidence starts to grow a little bit more, it seems, Todd. So maybe you want to discuss that.
• 1:03
  Todd Gleason: Jim McCormick from agmarket.net.
• 1:05
  Jim McCormick: Well, I know, I think a big conversation with the clients we have is, you know, this crop is definitely bigger than Trent by most accounts. And, what are what are producers gonna do, especially with those bushels that they store, you know, into the fall, and they're gonna have to make a decision to the pay commercial storage, dump it, maybe something they should be thinking about before harvest ramps up.
• 1:26
  Todd Gleason: And Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com on your list.
• 1:30
  Noami Blohm: Yes. So let's definitely echo, what these two gentlemen have said and talking about getting ready for what marketplace might bring for the next month for the grains. And then also looking at cattle market a little bit, we've got a cattle on feed and cattle inventory next week report next Friday. So we want to gear up and get ready for that.
• 1:51
  Todd Gleason: Okay, let's start Mike with you Post WASDE in July, what are the possibilities, and I have started to ask this question from time to time, that a contract low in corn made earlier in this week might be an actual low. Can this marketplace climb higher through the harvest season? And what would be in place that would cause such a thing to happen?
• 2:17
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. My take right now, Todd, is it's not likely that it can continue all the way through the harvest season. I I think what I would be looking at is to get back up to a value level. First stop would be those gaps left over from the July 4 holiday around $4.33 in Decor and $10.44 plus and Nove beans. Get those gaps filled and then see if we've got some trade deals done.
• 2:42
  And in specific trade deals related to agriculture, I'd like to hear what Naomi and Jim have to say about this as well. But the two major things I'm hearing on LaSalle Street or anyone affiliated with ag commodities is I'm not going to buy if I'm an investor fund. I'm not going to cover shorts if I'm an investor fund. And I'm not going to buy out if I'm an end user commercial because of the fact that we don't have enough details in these trade deals. Agriculture has been a sticking point with Japan, with South Korea, with India.
• 3:14
  And so the trade, very nervous, but I also would say clients have been calling in saying, Do I need to protect my crop insurance base price at this point, in case we get a decent price action that can give us a retracement in this in this market. And the USDA WASDE numbers kept demand at least the same or better worldwide, and we're still getting tighter and tighter on corn and wheat supplies. And while, yes, we've got a big crop coming on here in the August report and most likely going to get bigger yields, my price model would say at the 3.95 SEP corn price, we're at a 2,200,000,000 bushel crop anyway at this stage. So I'm going to say it this way. I think the demand low could be in if we continue to get some good news the next week or two by the end of the this month.
• 4:04
  And that as long as we don't take out $4.00 7 and a half and $9.88 a quarter, those are our our July 14 lows. I'm gonna say a low is in at this point.
• 4:13
  Todd Gleason: Jim McCormick, do you think that trade agreements can be made by the August 1 deadline that the president has put in place or at least something that says agricultural trade agreements are in place?
• 4:25
  Jim McCormick: I think that's gonna be the real key, Todd. President Trump has come out a lot of times that we've made these trade agreements, but a lot of them are more frameworks. The one the two that I'm actually watching, Todd, interesting right now are essentially Japan and South Korea. Our number two and number four corn buyers. You know, president Trump is threatening to flap a 25% tariff on both of those countries.
• 4:46
  Okay? And if he would do that, I think that'd be very, very hard on their auto industry. And I think they will push back. And the situation that we're in right now, how could they push back? Brazil's got this monster crop they're hoarding, or excuse me, they're harvesting right now.
• 5:03
  And it's a situation I'm very leery that if we do go to a bare knuckle brawl, are they going to essentially rip the same chapter that China did and do everything they can to move away from US agriculture? And they have a perfect opportunity potentially to buy Brazilian corn who I could argue could be very receptive to sell them corn aggressively due to the fact that we're threatening to sanction or tariff Brazilian imports at 50%. So I give the odds of this going to ugly, very slim, but I think it easily could happen. The other thing I'm looking at is I hope we put the low end, but when I just look at where we're at, the economic modeling of old crop carryout and how tight it is suggests we should, we're a lot lower than we should be. So the modeling doesn't seem quite right.
• 5:49
  My belief near term is this crop goes to 185. You're looking about a 16,000,000,000 crop. You add in the carry in, you're looking over a 17,000,000,000 supply. So you got 17,000,000,000 bushel supply. A good chunk of it unfortunately is on price.
• 6:04
  Half it'll stay on farm. The other half is going to come to the market. If I'm one of these funds that are short 180,000 bushels, 180,000 contracts plus, why do I get out now? Why do I just wait over the next couple months knowing this grain is going to come to market when it gets hedged, it'll be put into the commercial's hands and that short position by the fund will be transferred from the fund to the commercial over the fall. And then that'll put the bottom in and then we'll get that winter spring rally into 2026.
• 6:33
  That's what I believe.
• 6:34
  Todd Gleason: Because I don't know the answer to this question, does anybody know whether Xeno and Bunge actually were able to buy, a terminal in the Port Of Santos in Brazil last year because they did not have a have a terminal at that point, at least Zindo, which is consolidated grain and barge. I'm trying to get at, Jim, how easy it would be for the Japanese company that is the primary exporter of US corn to that nation to move its its where where it gets corn from to South America. And do we do we know? Did they get that purchase done at this point? I I don't see it on the web at this point other than they expected to it last year at some point.
• 7:25
  Jim McCormick: I don't know. Like I said, Todd, it could just be the threat of it could be enough to bring the administration back to the table. It's just one of those situations that once you look at where we're at, it's just something I think we've got to be cognizant of. I put the odds of that happening less than 10%. But you know, if it would, it could get ugly at least temporarily, I fear.
• 7:47
  So just something I'm telling clients, you know, be that black swan events do seem to be flying around more and more often near nowadays, it seems like.
• 7:55
  Todd Gleason: I'll try to follow-up on some information in that in the closing market report to see whether there's actually, a stake in Brazil by Zinno, which is the Japanese company, that exports corn to that nation through the consolidated grain and barge, grain elevator system in The United States. So Naomi Blohm, you've been listening to this conversation as it's related to demand, where the price currently is, and what the marketplace might do. What are your thoughts?
• 8:24
  Noami Blohm: Well, I think we put in a nice, short term low this past week as traders realized, okay, maybe we need to just take a step back here and not assume that it's this huge record crop as social media started to blow up with different sorts of pollination issues. The traders I think said, okay, well, it's probably 180 or 181, but maybe we shouldn't assume it's 185 or 186 quite yet. So we saw funds buy back some of those short positions this past week, but we did not see a lot of new buying. My best guess is that for the next couple of weeks, we're going to see corn prices trade sideways where the December contract has pretty darn good support at 4.1 area and resistance is going to be at four thirty. Hopefully we can fill that gap.
• 9:14
  But once we fill that gap, that's right where the forty and fifty day moving averages come together and the downward channel and resistance line that's held since April. So probably quiet markets until we get a better handle on where the yield is. As Jim pointed out, if the yield ends up being 185 or 186, then we're having 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout. But if yield comes in actually at this USDA number of 181, well, that's actually a little bit of a different story where carry out is 1,600,000,000 bushels. Then that is a good supportive price point area at this $4 value to where I think you'll see end users step up.
• 9:56
  So over the next couple of weeks, end users domestically and other countries around the world who buy our products, I think are waiting to see what our yield is. If there's a threat that it's not as good as what's been broadcast, you're going to see those countries show up quick and agreed to trade deals because they're going to try to buy this grain while it's cheap. But on the other hand, if the 185, 186 number comes to fruition, then it's going to be companies and countries just buying hand to mouth, assuming that there'll be enough of a supply that the Americans can get us through until winter, until then that Brazil crop starts to get harvested in March. So that's my 2¢ worth.
• 10:36
  Todd Gleason: Well, it's an interesting it's a different story for each of those. However, it remains a very low price in both cases for you, does it not?
• 10:45
  Noami Blohm: Right. So we're we're seeing the the reality of a big crop. If the big crop gets bigger, then you're gonna see a reason why corn prices probably go below $4 down to $3.75. If if the crop is deemed smaller, $4 value holds a support, and we find our harvest low early.
• 11:03
  Todd Gleason: Mike, anything to follow-up there on how you see this marketplace developing?
• 11:07
  Mike Zuzolo: No, I'm in total agreement with both. I I think, know, there's some there's some technical analysis or some fundamental analysis here that would suggest that the the short covering potential could be meaningful if we get some decent trade negotiations done and not make them general, make them more specific. The only other thing I would add is one of the areas that I think is much like we've seen the last few months, and we see it again on Thursday's trade going into Friday's close. We've got another monthly low in the soft road wheat, even though Russia and Ukraine's cash corn and excuse me, cash, corn and wheat prices are hitting one to one and a half month highs right now that suggests to me that they have some issues over there with tight supplies and a lack of farmer selling as well. And I think there's a real issue brewing in Ukraine that in another ten to fifteen days, it seems like a lot's coming together here as we get towards the July, US yield trade deals.
• 12:09
  And now I'm gonna throw out there the Ukrainian corn crop as them as the number four exporter in the world for $25.26. But some of the pictures I've seen in Central Ukraine this week look like Indiana and Illinois in 2012. And they are supposed to get some rains, but we're not sure how much they're gonna get and how widespread it's gonna be. So think we're gonna be stuck again in this mindset of do the funds look at the world numbers or look at The US numbers. And we know the answer that if the trade deals are signed, sealed, and delivered, they'll probably look at the world numbers.
• 12:41
  But if we keep having protectionism, we'll keep looking and trading at The US numbers.
• 12:47
  Todd Gleason: Jim McCormick, you wanted to talk about how big the crop is, how big it could be, and what folks should do with those extra bushels. I think this is the time and the place to pick that out of your brain. What are you thinking?
• 13:00
  Jim McCormick: Well, like the the group says, I mean, this is gonna be very tricky and a lot is gonna hinge on how these trade deals. I've had a lot of clients, like I said, like, you know, if you got to move bushels that you know you can't store, I've been actually looking out with some October options. I don't want to be caught selling short here at low prices per se at the moment because the trade deal could come tomorrow with president Trump. You just don't know where it's going to be. But until we dial in how big's big, it's a relatively cheap way to protect yourself past that August and September WASDE when I figure if this crop is going to get bigger based on all these models, based on good to excellent ratings, it's going to show up.
• 13:38
  The longer range maps, Todd continue to say we're going to turn hot and dry in August. We'll see if that comes to fruition. I think, one thing a lot of people are starting to talk about is the warm nights. A lot of people are saying, if you look at the ratings for the last month, they've been some of the warmest overnight temperature highs we've had on record. So that's something a couple of my clients are a little bit concerned about.
• 13:59
  You know, the uncertainty is there, so use an option to floor it in case this crop is big and the trade deals do not get cut. But leave yourself open in case we do cut a deal and maybe the crop does shrink back.
• 14:08
  Todd Gleason: Let's follow-up on on some of those thoughts just a little bit with you, Jim, as it's related to protecting, and I think I heard you say this, the the crop insurance price, meaning we're far enough down that farmers are now thinking, well, I may have a crop insurance payment that would come unless we rally again. You could do that with the options. I kind of think that's where you were at, but how do you go about it exactly?
• 14:35
  Jim McCormick: Well, me, I was actually talking about for the protecting grain that you actually have to sell that, you know, I can't store it. I think David was saying that on the call, I think it was David who was saying that buy them, you know, people are, if prices get low enough, you're in a indemnification. And if the market would start to rally back up and you think, wow, you know, the crops either shrinking a trade deal, you're turning bullish, whatever it is, the technicals levels hold. Then what some clients would do is they'll come in and buy futures, others will buy calls because remember the crop insurance is set during the average price of October. So if we do bottom early and you start getting a rally and you're in an indemnification portion now and the price would rally, let's say 50¢ and you'd lose that potential crop insurance payout.
• 15:21
  That's how you could defend it. But, you know, part of it's timing, Todd. You wanna try to get closer to the bottom price wise as you can.
• 15:28
  Todd Gleason: Mike, I I'm wondering when you talk to producers around the nation, what are they telling you about the crop? I know we hear some about, you know, the one number that may have had a NIC issue, but are there places that we really have to be concerned about?
• 15:43
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. It's funny you asked that, Todd, because, a longtime Will radio listener was texting me this morning after I'd done a program on Wednesday with someone else and talking about the good yields in The United States and how this next big rain could assure us of a pretty large, if not record crop. Because of what UST did on harvested acres by taking them down some, probably covered some of the problems in Southern Illinois would be my guess. But he was very adamant that we really don't know what's going on out in the fields in Illinois, specifically around Kankakee County and Iroquois County Counties, and that there's some real issues out there with the crop and the corn crop specifically, because of the heat and because of the lack of precip. And so I'm very sensitive to that, because I think there are several holes in the Dakotas and Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, parts of Southern Illinois still a question mark.
• 16:40
  And so I think that it's probably above where USDA is at right now from their long term projections, but not sure it's much above at this stage of the game until we get, you know, maybe another fifteen, twenty days down the road just because the crop did get put in in different times. The early April, mid April looks fantastic. But later May doesn't look as good in some areas. It's exact opposite in other areas like Ohio. So you know, that's just something to keep in mind as we go through this with the basis and with what Jim is talking about as far as getting some sales made.
• 17:16
  I I'm like him. I'd rather be in the paper positions, leave the basis alone right now unless, you know, the client says, I've got just a tremendous crop. Like, Central Iowa would be an area where you could probably take take a cash sale and not think the basis is gonna come back and eat you up.
• 17:32
  Todd Gleason: Naomi, are you in the same place that you wanna put, things into paper products rather than actual cash sales or basis contracts?
• 17:40
  Noami Blohm: Well, it's just a mixed bag, of course, depending on where folks live in on their budget right now. For those who have grain yet to price or who feel that they're gonna have a big crop and they're worried about prices going lower, We have been looking at using October corn puts. They're based on December futures and good until the September. That would get us through the harvest low timeframe. But as the conversation also was discussing, should there be a rally and market prices work higher and then that insurance price disappears during the month of October, there is tremendous value that you're going to want to protect.
• 18:20
  Right now the November cereal corn options are not available, which would get you through the October, so you have to go out with December options and maybe take a look at buying an out of the money corn call and the December options that'll get you till about Thanksgiving. That way you're protected in case the market does start to rally similar to what happened last year. You just have to have a balanced approach going into this because we're just at such a point of unknown. Of course, like we talked about, it depends on where this yield ends up being at. Then of course, keeping an eye on the export demand.
• 18:55
  Again, a balanced approach. Be ready for any scenario to unfold. If it's a big crop, I think we're going to go see $3.75 on December futures. But if the crop looks like it's getting smaller, then yeah, we've got every reason for that Dec corn price to rally higher north of 4.5 as the months progress.
• 19:15
  Todd Gleason: All farmers are from the Show Me State, Missouri, and they want to know what the next month will look like. You wanted to talk about the price of grains over the next month. What do you think will happen, Naomi?
• 19:26
  Noami Blohm: So looking at the price of grains, I'm I'm guessing kind of quiet markets here for a little bit. Now next week, we got some pretty big heat coming into the forecast. But ultimately I feel like these moving averages and technicals and day trading are going to rule us until we have a legit weather threat that makes the funds either exit their short positions and start to buy them back. But if the funds catch wind that this crop is as big as some of the industry are suggesting, they're short 200,000 contracts. Historically, if they wanna beat us up and sell this thing off more, they can take it to where they're short 300,000 contracts or potentially 350,000 contracts.
• 20:11
  So the next week to two weeks are critical. Again, I I feel like we'll see just quiet trade for a little bit until we know for sure what that August weather is gonna be looking like.
• 20:20
  Todd Gleason: Jim, your stable mate there in Barrington, Brian Split, is a good technician. I suspect that you have been talking to him about some of these chart gaps and where the market might be headed. What's he telling you?
• 20:34
  Jim McCormick: Well, I think the points we've talked about are very, very common points to fill the gap right around that, you know, that week gap lower coming out of the holiday weekend, four thirty two and a quarter. Your fifty day moving average is right there at four thirty five. I believe you got a head and shoulder pattern on the Dees corn. That neckline's also right around that four thirty two level. So I think that's gonna be a first major resistance.
• 20:55
  You take it out the downturn line off the head and shoulder pattern crosses around four forty. If you look at the ultimate long term chart, Todd, like we're going multiple years back to two years back, that interesting enough crosses around $4.70, which would be the upper most end, which is interesting because that's the level everyone kept thinking we'd work to $4.70 was obviously the insurance price. There's been historical bias that we test that $4.70 price during the summer or sometime during the year. So that would be the ultimate long term price. I don't see that happening anytime soon unless for some reason this crop is not here or we get one heck of a trade agreement from China per se.
• 21:31
  But I would say just logically, just until we get a better handle of the crop, a dead cap bounce back up toward toward the $4.35 is where I'd be looking to make up those catch up sales, especially those bushels that you are feel comfortable with marketing knowing that you do not have room to store on farm.
• 21:46
  Todd Gleason: Mike, let's talk a little bit about soybeans. I want you to turn your attention to China. I know you look at macroeconomics often. What's the condition of their economy at this point, and what does it tell you about its ability to hold off buying US commodities, particularly soybeans during its normal season from about the July all the way through January.
• 22:14
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. I think the best way to say it with them coming out with a five point 2% second quarter GDP this week, Todd, is that they benefited from the flurry of the trade tariffs and then the pause. And so they are hanging in there. They're doing a lot of negotiating on their Belt and Road initiative. High speed rail ports continue to be negotiated very aggressively with ASEAN countries, the the countries that like Indonesia, we just got a trade deal with.
• 22:47
  Vietnam, we just got a trade deal with. And so president Xi and president Trump are working the phones very aggressively on bilateral trade deals against one another as they negotiate their own trade deal with one another. That's kinda how I see it. I I think I'm glad you brought the beans into it because what we've seen this week is kind of a pickup in the pork and bean spread or pork and bean trade where both hogs and beans have have found some support. And I think that is in part due to president Trump easing the NVIDIA chip sales to China as kind of an olive branch.
• 23:21
  Asian newspapers, US newspapers are suggesting that a meeting between the two could be very close within within weeks. I think Marco Rubio, Secretary of State said not too long ago. If that would happen, that would, I think, frame up what we're talking about here on this program about giving the market a reason to go higher and maybe even break above the gaps from the from the post July 4 holiday. Having said that, if we don't get a Chinese trade deal, I still think beans are the most susceptible to the biggest downward move, and that's where I continue to be very undersold on new crop corn next to no sales at this point, and very aggressively sold at times on beans, because of the geopolitics. Whether The US and China will ever get together or whether president Trump really wants to bring manufacturing back here in The United States.
• 24:10
  And if he does, it's gonna come at the expense of China.
• 24:13
  Todd Gleason: Naomi Bloom, when you look at the soybean market, what are the things that you're watching most closely?
• 24:18
  Noami Blohm: Continuing, it's it's threefold. It's it's watching the potential for US yield, keeping an eye on our domestic demand. We know that we have solid demand here for our soy products. The USDA made an aggressive shift on the twenty five-twenty six balance sheet when they lowered bean oil exports a billion pounds. But domestic use for biofuel surged £1,600,000,000 to a record 15.5.
• 24:49
  So the demand for the biofuels is fantastic and that's supportive for soybeans domestically. But then that third part continues to be the question mark surrounding the exports. So I'm watching that $10 price area on the November beans. I'm watching politics, I'm watching weather, watching just NOPA crush reports that come out. We had good numbers on the most recent NOPA crush report.
• 25:20
  So it's a three headed monster in my opinion right now on soybeans. Right now they're all pretty well balanced, but at any one point, one of the monsters of the three could really rear its head and become the leading indicator for the market, either bullish or bearish. So you gotta watch all three pretty equally.
• 25:39
  Todd Gleason: Jim, if farmers are going to run a grain across the scale, during the harvest season, and they have a choice, they will push soybeans, generally speaking, across the scale. How should they consider the marketing options at this time?
• 25:53
  Jim McCormick: I'm like, Naomi, I'm looking at that $10 level. I think that's something you need to keep an eye on technically. You take that out, it will look kinda ugly. I would do the same situation I I'd recommend right now. If you have bushels and you know your crops look good, although it's for you know, we're not there in August critically yet.
• 26:09
  I'd sell them. Otherwise, I'd use same situation consider using an options. I mean, we're hearing reports that we were selling beans out of the golf today for August, you know, for August. So we are hearing some, you know, at least, you know, people kicking around the tires of maybe buying some beans. We'll see.
• 26:27
  Like I said, there's all sorts of rumors that China and The US are getting close to a trade deal. I'm not quite as optimistic about it, Todd Berthley. The last go around, it took two years, something like twelve separate meetings before a deal was done. So I'm a little bit pessimistic about it, but you never know where we're at with how aggressive president Trump wants to be in cutting a deal. So but, you know, if we can't get a trade deal done and we have good August weather, I would guess the beans have some more downward pressure to go.
• 26:55
  So use an option same as a corn is the way to defend that until we get a little clearer picture of yield as well as demand.
• 27:01
  Todd Gleason: Before we get a final word from each of you, Naomi did, ask about the cattle and the cattle and feed reports that are due out soon. I think, Naomi, I'll have you follow-up. I don't wanna check with Mike because he's there in Atchison, Kansas closer to some of those feedlots. Mike, what are you hearing about the cattle market and demand from it?
• 27:21
  Mike Zuzolo: We're surprised that the USDA raised the 26 beef production by 540,000,000 pounds, and now it's gonna be only, like, a one and a half percent less than this year given the screwworm issue and the border shut between The US and Mexico. So that's what we're really talking about out here is, are we really going to have bigger feedlot placements this fall, like USDA says we are in their last report, to be able to get that kind of production number. But that was a real question mark, and I think it really slowed down the bowl on this last go around.
• 27:51
  Todd Gleason: And Naomi, I know you've been watching this closely. What are your thoughts?
• 27:54
  Noami Blohm: Yeah, balancing act between understanding where our herd size is going to be. We'll get updates with that on next Friday's report. Again, that's the cattle inventory report and just the regular cattle and feed report. But we're also keeping an eye on tariffs with Brazil. Right now our imports are already up 35% on the year.
• 28:16
  So imports of beef from Brazil, New Zealand, Australia. And if we're raising tariffs on imported beef from those countries, it's going to make it a little bit trickier for the consumer, I think, to keep paying up for this higher price value because eventually that is going to trickle to the consumer as far as who has to pay the extra money. We're already in a seasonal decline for boxed beef values and we saw that two days this week. I think that's what made the market rally of just pause here. Traders are going to be watching not only domestic demand, but our weekly export sales this week were terrible, really not good at all.
• 28:56
  25% lower than the last week and about 30% lower than the four week average. The juggling act continues between watching the domestic demand, watching export demand, understanding where the herd is in our country, and then keeping an eye on imported cattle coming across the border from Mexico and then just importing frozen product as well. So a balancing act to watch as we have these historic high values continue.
• 29:26
  Todd Gleason: Let's get a final word now from each of you. Jim McCormick from agmarket.net out of Barrington, Illinois. We'll start with you this afternoon. Your final thoughts for the day.
• 29:35
  Jim McCormick: Well, I mean, we're gonna come to a very critical kind of a weather period over the next couple weeks. We have the first real second round of heat coming in over the next week, week and a half, the heat dome setting in. We'll see how long that sticks around. This seems to give us a little of an opportunity. If you're a producer out there, I'm gonna encourage you as you know, consider at least risk managing the bush, because you know you can't store.
• 29:56
  I think if you can store the grain into the fall winter in the next spring, you will be rewarded. But, you know, trying to protect the bushels you have to sell, don't be afraid to do it.
• 30:05
  Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzalo at globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Your final thoughts?
• 30:10
  Mike Zuzolo: The one thing we didn't say, you know, that I didn't talk about as much as the wheat, and and I think the wheat and the crude oil, they're back to almost a 91% positive price relationship right now on a five week basis, Todd. So if we see a corn and bean rally, and we think it's a row crop rally, but we also see crude and wheat rallying with those two, that may give us some extra punch to the upside because that would lend me to think that the demand side is back in play, and the investment funds may wanna cover some shorts.
• 30:36
  Todd Gleason: And finally, Naomi Blome at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Your thoughts.
• 30:42
  Noami Blohm: I really feel that producers need to have a balanced approach right now. We're at that point where things could price wise get a little bit worse before they get better. But again, watching the weather forecast for August could really change things around. So just be ready for why the market for corn might drop 30 or 40 more cents lower or suddenly could shift and we're starting to trend into a higher pattern. And again, it all depends on perception of yield and then what the fund traders are gonna be doing.
• 31:11
  So be ready for anything. Don't get complacent and stay on your toes watching markets every single day.
• 31:18
  Todd Gleason: Commodity week, of course, is a production of Illinois Public Media. You may find and listen to the whole of the program anytime you'd like on our website at willag.org or in your favorite podcast applications. Just search out commodity week. Our thanks go to our panelists this week including Naomi Blohm, Jim McCormick, and Mike Zusolo. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson.