Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Schedule Deep Dive with Warren Sharp

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NFL Schedule Deep Dive with Warren Sharp · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: am Chadnam, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We're
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: just over one hundred days until kickoff of the twenty
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: twenty four NFL season. Intrigue surrounding the season is in
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: full swing. That's because last week the league released the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: full twenty twenty four schedule. Like everything for the NFL,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: it was a major event, a tent pole event that
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: has extended the NFL season all the way into May.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Joining us today is a man who may spend more
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: time thinking about, analyzing, discussing the NFL schedule than any
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: man alive, veteran of the NFL analytics scene in person,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: A Sharp of Sharp Footballanalysis dot Com. In front of
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the podcast, Will Warren Sharp. He will join us in
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: a second, but first, as always, let's bring in my
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my BFF professional
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: betters signon Hunt ed O Sooman, Hello, chat.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: How are we doing? Buddy brother?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk to Warren today because you know,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: like his his examination of rest advantage and disadvantage that
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: he puts in his book the Sharp Football Analysis preview
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: that'll come out later this summer. We'll talk a little
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: bit about it is really smart and a really interesting
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: way to look at the schedule. But I'll tell you
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: right now, I don't care what he says about the Bengals.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: You sent a picture to me, Matt Mitchell, producer Tito
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: of Joe Burrow from the Internet machine with flowing locks,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: looking like he belongs on the billboard for the latest
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: installment of Interview with the Vampire. In a revamped Brad
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Pitt Roll Brad Pitt Interview with the Vampire. We love
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: them at eight to one. They're down to thirteen to
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: one after a season of injuries. He's basically out here
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: saying I'm him. I'm the only one who's beaten Patrick Mahomes.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It's over. Bengals buy a million every week all the
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: way through to New Orleans.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Not so fast, my friend, as my friend Lee Ports
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: used to say, U Chad, it's the stupidest thing ever.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: But we looked back. It's called the Sunshine Law.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I remember Sunshine from one of
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: the best movies ever.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Remember the Titans, Guys who remember the Titans?
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Ronnie Bass Yeah, go get a friend, perfectly a guy,
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: have a little cry together.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Go watch remember the Titans. Great movie, great crying movie
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: for guys.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: The sunshine rule is if you don't know it, you
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: don't win with a long haired quarterback.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: And I'm worried.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Chat we're walking into it. We have now a long
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: haired Joe Burrow. He needs to cut that hair before
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: the season because it sounds stupid.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: People.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: We've we've done the research, the useless planless research that
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: no one else will do. Last long haired quarterback to
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: win Super Bowl Chad Terry Bradshaw. So that was ten
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: years before I even existed on this beautiful planet.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I love the look. I love
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: Everyone's talking about his wrist and apparently it's a it's
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: an injury where he might only have fifty percent of
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: the strength. I don't know if you've seen him in practice,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: he is throwing the perfect Joe Burrow deep balls. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: got no worries right now about the Bengals team and
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: our future bet despite the long hair.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: There's one specific scenario that does worry me. I'll take
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: a we'll take a look at that.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: With Warren Waren's gonna break that down for us.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: He's gonna he's gonna break it down. He could break
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: our hearts and break it down. We'll bring him on
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: in a second, but first, the favorite podcast is presented
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  Speaker 1: They started advertising with us on this show, right, Yeah, there, everyway, everywhere.
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  Speaker 1: As a reminder, catch every episode of the Favorite live
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  Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
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  Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: you Tube page. At long last, Warren all Right, I
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: mentioned the book The Sharp Football Analysis, will come out
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: in summer. It will be packed with insights we're betters.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: One of those relevant pieces of intel is how you've
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: been breaking down rest in relation to schedules. I tease
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: that I think it's brilliant. It's so fascinating. Just explain
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: what this means for people who might not have heard
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: you on this show before, might not have bought the book,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: which they certainly should buy when it comes out.
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: The NFL does not believe that rest matters enough to
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: modify the schedule to make things more equitable, but we
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: as betters can take advantage of that so long as
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: they continue to do this, which is we've been discussing.
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: We think is going to continue for a while, and
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: we share in the book every single game where there
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: is a rest edge of a certain number of days,
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: whether it's one day, three days, seven days, eight days,
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: this is pretty much the standard. Sometimes four days, but
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: that's less frequent, and we go by game by game
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: and list them all out in the book. And you
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: can get the book. I'm doing it. It's regularly thirty
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: dollars at the website Charp Football Analysis dot com. For
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: only five dollars. If you use the code sharp Book,
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: which I'm only sharing with you guys chat on the
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: show Sharp Book, you get the book for only five dollars.
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: Why are we doing it all the way down that
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: cheap because we just want people to get it now.
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: You can't get it now. It comes out in July.
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: But this book, I spend months working on it. I've
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: got a team of guys that help us well. But honestly,
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: this schedule, I was hoping the schedule. I wouldn't have
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: to do this much work on the schedule this year, Chad,
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: because the NFL put an advertisement out there that they
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: were seeking a data scientist to help with the schedule.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: So I assumed they were going to make things a
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: lot more equitable moving forward, and maybe I wouldn't be
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: able to say as many negative things about it. Can
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: band as much attention and point things out, but that
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: actually wasn't the case. I think they were getting the
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: schedule data scientists to figure out how to pack more
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: games onto prime time, and that actually puts more teams
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: at rest disadvantages. So we've got a lot to talk
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: about here on the show.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I love that you're going after the NFL. The NFL,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: you pull it back a little bit, don't be shy.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: You had a quote in your story this week on
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: your website sharp footballanalysis dot com in which you explained
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: your perspective based on what the NFL says about how
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: they create the schedule. Give us some details on that.
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they make it more like an art I've heard
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: Mike North, who's the NFL Vice president of broadcast Planning,
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: seems like a great guy. I do not think this
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: is his fault by any stretch, but he is being
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: given orders like edicts that they need to make these
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: games sellable. They need to drive the ratings to these
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  Speaker 4: games with storylines and narratives, and so a lot of
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: how they're building out the schedule is looking at what
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: matchups sound good at the beginning of the year versus
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: what matchups might sound good and compelling late in the year.
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  Speaker 4: What storylines can we derive from these things? How do
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: we jack up our ratings numbers? And he listed out
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  Speaker 4: three main factors that they look at when they build
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  Speaker 4: the schedule, and he listed them importantly in this order.
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  Speaker 4: Try to maximize viewership number one, maximize fan interest number two,
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: and maximize commendative minimize competitive inequalities number three. And I
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: truly think that that was not just the way they
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: rolled off his tongue. I think that was the order
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  Speaker 4: in which they prioritize this. And you know, I know
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  Speaker 4: Simon knows that the NFL has powerful supercomputers and algorithms.
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  Speaker 4: They could spit out a schedule that is very fair
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  Speaker 4: in less than a week. The reason it takes them
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: weeks and weeks and months to come out with this
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  Speaker 4: schedule is because they are trying to make this schedule
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  Speaker 4: more entertaining and be able to drive big dollar games
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  Speaker 4: and drive the ratings. And Mike North even said, you know,
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  Speaker 4: years ago, we had this schedule out in April, mid April,
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  Speaker 4: early April. We're flipping the page of the draft. Normally
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  Speaker 4: we're on vacation right now. But they are pushing this
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  Speaker 4: schedule back further and further because they need to build
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  Speaker 4: up all these storylines. And what it does, it's going
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  Speaker 4: to make the NFL more money. What it also does, unfortunately,
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  Speaker 4: is it creates disadvantages widespread. There's one hundred and one
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  Speaker 4: games this year that have a rest disadvantage. It's like
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  Speaker 4: thirty seven percent of all the games, is the most
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  Speaker 4: that we have ever had. We've got a team like
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: the San Francisco forty nine ers who play eight games
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  Speaker 4: at a rest disadvantage. That is almost half of their schedule.
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  Speaker 4: They play at a rest disadvantage. And meanwhile, a team
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  Speaker 4: like the New England Patriots plays zero games at a
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  Speaker 4: rest disadvantage. And so for me, it's about making these
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  Speaker 4: a little bit more equal and balanced amongst the teams,
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  Speaker 4: so that one team's not playing eight, which is an
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  Speaker 4: NFL record, and one team is not playing zero. Let's
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  Speaker 4: spread the burden to the teams a little bit more fairly.
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  Speaker 4: And the NFL just has shown they do not care
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  Speaker 4: about trying to do that.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Simon. I know you want to break in here for
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: a second because but I do want to say one thing,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: because when you describe how the NFL is mapping out
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: narratives and trying to build storylines. Doesn't that sound exactly
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: like the WWE? Like who does that brilliantly and builds
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: over the course of a say season. So we get
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: to WrestleMania and all of a sudden, we've been tracking
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: who might be the champion, who their nemesis is over
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a twelve month period since the last WrestleMania and it's
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: all scripted.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: Honestly, though, this feels like their first year where what
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: Warren's talking about it feels true for the past whatever
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  Speaker 3: twenty thirty years of them making the schedule. This year
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: feels like they literally put the team names off and
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: just put the quarterback names up and then just went
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: to these big time you know, Amazon or wherever, just
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: said hey, we'll give you that Rogers party matchup on
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: Monday Night.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: How do you like that?
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: ESPN or just going about it differently than they usually have.
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: It just feels different this year. And thank god for
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: guys like Warren, Like we talk about the time, everything
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: in the sports media business now there's different tools you
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: can use to your advantage. And Warren's book here what
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: he's doing, He's giving you guys a good deal. That's
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: a tool. Like again, he'll tell you himself, it's a
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: shitload to read through, and there is a lot. There
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: is a lot, but there's stuff you can highlight and
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: go back to during the red season. That is a
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: great tool, and it honestly does help because you can't
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: get lost in the season, and it does help to
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: go back and be like, oh, yeah, this team has
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: a really tough stretch coming up where they are going
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: to be less rested than these other teams. And again,
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: I have a bunch of questions, especially about the fort ninety,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: because I wanted to fade the forty nine ers coming
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: to this year, and I couldn't find a reason. It's
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: a team that just lost the Super Bowl. I love
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: fading teams after Super Bowl loss, but they don't fit
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: the criteria right. They didn't lose a bunch of players.
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: They're not having to pay their star quarterback. They lost
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: a defensive coordinator. I don't think me and Chad or
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: you weren't think that's a big loss of that fort
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: nine ers team. So please give me some info why
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: I should fade this four NINIS team because of the schedule.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: I'm looking for a reason to fade this team. I'm
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: going to dive into the forty nine ers. There's a
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: number of factors here.
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  Speaker 4: Number one, they have a minus twenty one day net
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: rest differential. Now, what net rest is is it looks
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: at like say you're about to play another opponent and
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: you both play on a Sunday, but your last game
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: was a Sunday, so you got a week, but their
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: last game was a Monday, so they have less than
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: a week. They have six days off versus you having seven.
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: Then you have a plus one day edge, and they
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: have a minus one day edge. And over the course
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: of the season you can cumulatively add those together to
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: see what a team's net rest edge is. Forty nine
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: Ers have a minus twenty one day net rest differential,
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: which is the worst net rest differential in the last decade.
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: It's the sixth largest since nineteen ninety. As I said earlier,
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: they played eight games with the rest disadvantage. It's nearly
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: fifty percent of the schedule, and that's the most that
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: any team has ever had to play in NFL history.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: They play three short week road games, which you know
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: having worked with teams in the past, those are some
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: of the games they hate the most. Going on the
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: road on a short week puts an extra stress on
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: them that their opponent doesn't have to deal with. It
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: makes things more difficult as well. But from week seven onward,
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: this stretch is ridiculous, and let's dive into it. Not
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: only is the rest difficult, which I'll share in a second,
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: but when you just look at strength of schedule, which
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: these are two different things. They're intertwined, but they're totally separate.
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Strength of schedule is your opponents. Strength of rest is
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: the games the way that the NFL made you play
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: these opponents the time. They play the fourth most difficult
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: schedule of opponents from week seven onwards, so the difficulty
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: of their schedule is brutal. And six of those eleven
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: games they are going to be playing at a rest disadvantage.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: They play Kansas City when Kansas City is coming off
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: their bye. They play Dallas the very next week in
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: week eight, when Dallas is coming off the bye. Week eleven,
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: they play Seattle when Seattle's coming off the bye. Week thirteen,
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: they play Buffalo when Buffalo is coming off the bye.
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: Week fourteen, the very next week, they play Chicago when
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: Chicago's coming off of a mini by, and then they
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: play Arizona when Arizona has extra rest as well. They're
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: playing these four games versus teams coming off of a bye.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: That's tied for the most in thirty five years since
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: nineteen ninety. I can't find another team that's played more
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: teams that are coming off of a bye. And there's
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: a few things that I'm not even mentioning, But the
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: worst thing about so that attacks the Niners this year, right, simon,
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: But the worst thing if you're a Niners fan is
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: that the Niners had the worst net rest differential last season.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: Two straight years they've been screwed by the league and
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: getting the worst net rest differential, and so is one
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: thing not to balance it out during the season, Right,
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: the Niners play eight games without against teams, the Niners
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: play eight games on short rest, whereas other teams play zero.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: That's one thing, but it's another thing to say the
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: Niners got screwed last year, we're gonna screw them again
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: this year. That shows to me that the league really
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: either doesn't care or is unaware of these measurements and
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: these factors, and they're not really utilizing it. To build
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: their schedule. And you know, I know, Chad, you might
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: want to go down the path with me about does
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: rest matter? Where's the evidence? Because I know what the
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: NFL has said about various teams like the Chiefs, like
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: the forty nine ers, where they claim, oh, well, the
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: forty nine ers still made the Super Bowl, so rest
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: doesn't matter. But when you look at the games that
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: they played when they were at a rest disadvantage, they
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: were night and day different than the games that they
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: played when they just had regular rest. No advantage, just
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: regular rest, let alone an advantage. So it impacted the
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: best teams in the NFL, like the Chiefs, like the Niners,
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: like the Eagles last season, and it certainly is going
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: to impact some of the teams that are much worse
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: than those.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Well, you're right, I was going to ask you about
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Niners who had the biggest rest
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: disadvantages last year. I don't necessarily think a rest advantage
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: or disadvantage should be used as a marker of a
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: team that can go to the Super Bowl because you
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: still need a great roster, and a lot of times
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: the preseason is the great equalizer when it comes to
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: rest because so many teams are banged up no matter
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: how much rest they've had during the year. I think
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: rest matters on a one game, week to week base,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: not necessarily on a postseason basis. So I don't quibble
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: with the Niners and the Chiefs making the Super Bowl
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: and them also being two teams that had a huge
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: rest disadvantage. But I do think this is a very
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: good compliment to seeing games in which you might find
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: an advantage during the year. You mentioned the Niners take
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: people through a schedule quirk last year that we all
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: looked at and which we all started fading the Niners
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that underneath that was a rest disadvantage. I think you
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: know the sequence, the three week sequence I'm talking about.
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the Niners went zero and three. So these three
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: straight game, these three games in particular, I highlighted before
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: the season because last year, I've got my I've got
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: my Uh. Here's the twenty twenty three net rest edges
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: graphic here, which I have, and then the twenty twenty
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: four net rest Edge graphic here, and which, by the way,
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: each year I do this, this graphic gets wider and
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: wider and wider, which means they're screwing more teams to
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: the and helping more teams, Like, we're not getting more balanced,
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: it keeps getting wider. But the Niners last year, there
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: were three games where they were playing at minus seven,
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: minus seven or minus eight day rest disadvantage, and that's
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: really what built up their minus twenty net rest disadvantage.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: So in those three games, it was against the Bengals
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: when the Bengals were plus eight days. It was against
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: the Browns when the Browns were off of a bye.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: It was against the Seahawks when the Seahawks was off
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: of Mini Bay and the Niners won a short week.
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: The Niners go zero to three in those three games.
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: They were favored in those games by fourteen and a half,
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: nine and a half, and four and a half points. Okay,
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: so they're supposed to win by double digits pretty much
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: in two of the three games. They only won one
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: of those three games. They lost all three against the
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: spread by wapping thirty two and a half points. Then,
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: if you look at the games where they weren't in
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: the net rest disadvantage, they covered the spread fifty eight
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: percent of the time. They went nine to three in
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: those games. So they were great in the other games.
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: But when rest was a factor against these teams off
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: of a bye, they were bad. Same exact thing happened
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: with the Kansas City Chiefs. I know the Kansas City
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: Chiefs went to the Super Bowl and won the Super Bowl.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: But the Kansas City Chiefs in all the games that
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: they played where they didn't have a two or more
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: day rest disadvantage, they were twelve and three ATS, that's
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: eighty percent ATS, and they won thirteen of the fifteen games.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: That's eighty seven percent win rate. When they were playing
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: with the rest disadvantage of two or more days, they
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: went one and four ATS, that's twenty percent. They only
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: won two out of those five games, and they got
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: super lucky that one of the games was against Jake
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: Browning in the Cincinnati Bengals, it was in Kansas City.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: Kansas City was losing in the fourth quarter of that game.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: Otherwise they're going zero to five ATS. So you could say, yes,
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs are a good enough team. Like to your point, Chad,
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: they're talented enough, they've got a good enough fifty three
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: roster is good, and they've got one of the best
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: coaches and the best quarterbacks. So can they overcome these
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: things and crush bad teams and still win enough games
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: to go to the Super Bowl. Yes, but did rest
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: impact them last year? The numbers are quite clear, and
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: so to gloss over it and suggest that because they
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: made the super Bowl, rest was not a factor, I
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: just cannot disagree more than that. And the same is
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: true for a variety of other teams. I'm trying to
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: highlight some that the NFL pointed out a case studies
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: as to why rest isn't a big factor. And I'm
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: not saying it's the biggest factor in the world, but
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: it is a factor, and it is something that the
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: NFL is glossing over, and there are advantages that we
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: can use when we're betting these games as a result, and.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Too, Warren's point eating a touch on it. That point
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: nine ers team. They crawled that super Bowl, They went
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: over three eighths end the season, the playoffs, and the
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: big part is, yes, the public got caught right. They
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: kept over value this team. The books were kind of like, yeah,
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: come come take this double digit favorite here and a
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: team that Warren is talking about, they went through a
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: really tough schedule in that week off that don't really
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: help them, right, they had a close game with Green Bay,
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: then a close game with Detroit and then they lost
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: by three point Super Bowl. Like that team, if we
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: get them fully healthy extra rest, I feel like they
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: would have been a much better stronger position in that
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: playoff run than they were clearly in.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: So again people want to push back on this stuff.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: There's evidence to it, like there really is. And that's
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: why you know, we're talking here about teams that have
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: a disadvantage. What are the teams of the advantage?
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: Worn? Like, who are the teams?
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: I mean you lightly mentioned I can't believe Chad, and
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: jump right in and cut me off with about the Bears,
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: Like there are teams that there are little advantages where
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: you know, the public loves Chicago. They are betting they're
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: over and droves. Now you're about to give them another reason,
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: hon Worn.
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the Chicago Bears, where are they? They are at
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: plus five in net rest advantage, which is big for them.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: It's something that they haven't been able to enjoy for
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: a while now. And there's a lot of factors for
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: the Chicago Bears that stand out. When I look at
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: my other graphic here, which is my prep and rest variables,
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: which is different than net rest edges, prep and rest variables.
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: I'm looking at like how many days do you does
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: your opponent have to prepare over or under seven days?
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: And if you look at a team like the Chicago Bears,
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: they've got a nice schedule where they only play one
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: short road game, which is obviously a benefit to them.
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: They play zero games off of a road Sunday night
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: or Monday night football. Their buy is not negated, which
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: some teams have buys that are negated. They do not
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: play any of this which we got to cover this
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: three games in ten days or four games in seventeen days,
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: which are absolutely brutal stretches. They don't have to deal
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: with anything like that. And so for the Chicago Bears,
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: it's just a great way. And I think the way
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: that their schedule starts is going to really help from
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: a strength of opponent as well. They should get started
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: off on the right track, instilling a lot of confidence
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: for Caleb Williams, and the fact that they aren't playing
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: with any real true difficult rest disadvantages this season is
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: just lovely. I mean, if you look at them, I
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: think they play only one team that is coming off
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: of a bye and that's it. They've got three games.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: And we'll talk about this maybe later, but the one
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: day rest disadvantage is not that big of a deal.
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: Later in the season, it becomes a smaller factor. But
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: when you're talking three days or more, that is a
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: big deal. And they've got three games where they've got
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: three days or more rest advantage, and they only play
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: one game where they're at three games or worse disadvantage.
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: So three to one to the Bears favor.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: You know what you said it right? That does sound lovely, Simon.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: United States?
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: minute deals, including pro in college sports. I'm actually opening
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house here
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Guess what the hottest team in baseball the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: New York Yankees. I can get into see them for
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: thirty bucks. No matter where you live, download the game
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Time app. Get out have some fun this week. You
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: deserve it. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: off first purchase terms apply again. Just download the Game
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Time app and use code favorites for twenty dollars off
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: your first purchase, last minute tickets, loose prices guaranteed. It
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: feels to me. Look, we can debate the NFL's intentions
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: or motives all we want. I think Simon and Warren,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: you're both exactly right. They basically just said Amazon, which
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: quarterback matchup can we give you? ESPN? Which quarterback matchup
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: can we give you? And I don't think it's like
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: think the NFL is purposely disadvantaging teams like the Niners,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: but they know the teams like the Niners rate and
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: they know people are going to tune in.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: At that chad. It's all said.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: They got the data to prove that there is no
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: difference than a short week and a long week when
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: it comes to injuries.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: So that's their reasoning for this.
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: Where it's like people want to push back on they
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: keep trying to throw a data in front of them,
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: where it's like, I don't know I talked to I mean,
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: we had Chris long On, they talked.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: About those short weeks.
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: They say, otherwise they say all terrible to so That's
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: why again, people like warn are so important where it's
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: like you need someone challenge NFL where they try to
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: make make like it's all good and it's not right.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: Chad's that's the issue people are having here.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, But you know what, I don't even think it's
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: about injuries, Simon. Remember what Chris said, and this sticks
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: out to me. We were on that Eagles that we
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: watched that Eagles Bills game that went to overtime, right
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: we were watching it on Sunday as we were getting
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: ready to record the podcast.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Untain at the Mouth fade the Eagles exactly and.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: As second it ended, we jumped all over the Niners
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the next week in Philadelphia, and then Chris went on
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: his podcast on The green Light Podcast with his brother
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Kyle and talked about how it's so freaking hard when
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: you've played eighty ninety plays into overtime in the late
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: game to get ready for the next week, and that
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: when you are coming off the field, every hour matters
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: for recovery. So it's not even about the injuries, it's
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: about the recovery time. I think that's the genius of
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: what Warren is pointing out here is like everyone might
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: be quote unquote healthy, but they might not have recovered,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: which is the hard thing.
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: You're absolutely right, and that's one of the things that
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: Mike North mentioned on his shows where that was its tea, Hey,
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: they've had they have this tough stretch. Warren was talking
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: about it, and that's the team that went to the playoffs. Well,
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: as you guys know by fading them off of that
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: game against the Bills. There was a specific stretch we twelve, thirteen,
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: and fourteen where they played three weeks where they were
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: against teams that were all having a rest advantage, and
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: the Eagles did not cover the spread in any of
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: those games. They went zero to three ats in those
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: games despite being three and three and a half point dogs.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: They were smoked by both the Niners and the Cowboys
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: forty two to nineteen against the Niners, thirty three to
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: thirteen against the Cowboys the very next week after that,
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: where they were also at a rest disadvantage, and that
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: game against the Bills they were at a rest disadvantage,
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: but they were three point favorites. They were losing by
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: ten points in the fourth quarter, they needed to make
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: a fifty nine yard field go at the buzzer to
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: send the game to overtime, and then they were losing
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: in overtime, so they got away with not losing that
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: game ATS, but they lost the other two games in blowout. Fact,
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: and if I looked at the Eagles, they went oh
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: five and one ATS and just three and three when
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: having less rest in their opponent. Last year when they
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: did not have less rest in their opponent, they were
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: seven and two straight up five too and two ATS.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: So they moved from sixty three at sixty three percent
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: ATS all the way down to zero percent ATS with
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: the rest, So it was a factor for them. I
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: absolutely agree that it is a it's about the rest,
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: it's about the preparation, and it does end up having
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: a cumulative compounding effect over the course of the year.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: During these runs where teams are dealing with it, it's
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: not difficult enough for certain teams to overcome it and
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: still perform. But absolutely one hundred percent agree they are
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: not factoring this in. And if that quote is true
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: where they said that there's no difference in uh, was
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: it a team playing off of a short week versus not?
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: The fact is that the data is certainly that I'm
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: looking at from a betting perspective shows that it is
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: a factor. But secondly, what I would encourage the NFL
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: to do is just try this experiment. Ask teams independently,
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: all thirty two teams, would you rather play on from
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: a Monday to a Sunday or would you rather play
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: from a Thursday to the following Sunday extra rest versus
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: short rest. There's not a team out there who's going
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: to volunteers day. I think the short week is better
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: for us. There's not a team out there who would say,
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: I'll take the San Francisco forty nine ers minus twenty
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: one day rest schedule this year as opposed to if
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: you offered me the Baltimore Ravens were at plus sixteen
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: netrest edge. Every single coach out there is going to
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: take the team that's more rested. These teams they hire
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: and contract with guys like me. They have great buildings themselves.
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: They care about every single competitive advantage, no matter how
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: slim it might be. So there's not a world a
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: universe that the coaches or the general manager would say
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: rest isn't a factor. So for the league to say that,
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: I think is a little disingenuous Because the players, the coaches,
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: the GMS would not echo that sentiment and the betting
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: data that basically shows are you outperforming expectations or are
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: you underperforming expectations, because that matters more than just the
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: straight up wins and losses that betting line. When you're
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: losing against that betting line, with the rest disadvantage and
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: the sample sizes as large as it is, I think
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: it's sort of certainly a compelling case that rest is
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: a factor.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you do have irrefutable, conclusive proof about the betting
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: results when it comes to rest disadvantage, and I want
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: to I want to get to that in a couple
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: of minutes in the show, a little bit of a
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: foreshadow and a tease. But you just mentioned the Eagles
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: kind of getting slaughtered with a rest disadvantage at the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: end of the year. They're one of the teams that
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: have the best rest advantage this year. And I know
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Simon and I have already started talking about how we
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: like the Eagles season win total because of what they've
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: done to their roster, what how He's done in the draft,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: the moves they've made, the coaching moves they've made, and
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: also we think the Cowboys have fallen back a little bit.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Give us another team. I think the number one team
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: with the rest advantage in the NFL this year.
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: The Baltimore Ravens are that team. They're plus sixteen games
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: net rest advantage this season. And it's really a scary
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: thought before I dive into like some of the nuances
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: of their schedule, to think of late season Derrick Henry
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: with extra rest over these defensive linemen he's going up
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: against this season, and what that offensive line might be
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: able to do against a you know, a rest disadvantage
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: defensive line, and the push they could get to help
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: Derek Henry long as he's getting older and his career.
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: But they play an NFL high five games with more
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: rest than their opponent. Of those five games, four are
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: extremely meaningful because they come with three plus days of
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: rest advantage. As I've mentioned to you before how important
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: that is. John Harbaugh has an outstanding track record since
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: he became a head coach when he's had three or
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: more days of rest versus his opponent, He's won eighty
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: one percent of those games, which is the best of
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: any head coach in the NFL since twenty seventeen. The
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: Ravens are ten to one with a three plus day
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: rest advantage, which is the best mark in the NFL.
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: And importantly, if you're looking to back the Ravens, as
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: you guys indicated that you might be, I think it's
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: valuable to place wagers on them to win the AFC
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: North as well, because if you look at how the
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: Ravens match up to the rest of the teams in
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: the AFC North from a rest perspective, it's pretty glaring.
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: So the Ravens are at plus sixteen days total net
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: rest advantage this year. The Browns and Steelers are only
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: at plus two, and the Bengals are at minus two.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: I'll talk further down about you know, the Bengals, because
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: you wanted to talk a little bit about them, But
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: if you only look at the AFC North games themselves,
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: no team hasn't has a rest advantage net rest. If
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: you look at the other three teams Bengals, all the
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: AFC North games stack up and sum up to zero
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: days of advantage. Steelers are at minus two, Browns are
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: at minus four, Ravens are at plus six, so they've
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: got a rest advantage over the league. Unprecedented. No team
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: has ever in history had plus sixteen days net rest
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: advantage they do this year. But then also when you
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: compare them to the rest of the AFC North, that
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: rest is certainly impactful. So you know, this is not
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: if you're already looking to bet them, This is just
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: another idea. This is I'm never going to say only
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: bet this because of rest, but rest absolutely is a factor,
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: and it's just another reason why you might want to
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: support them in a different type of way.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Sadly, Cha Chad misled you. We are we are not
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: bro Ravens this year. But our whole reasoning was, would
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: you know as well, they do have the hardest schedule
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: of the hardest schedules in all football, right, I mean
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: they're if you look it on paper, it's brutal. And
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: I mean they might have lost one of the better
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: defensive minds in all of football, right, Like that's that's
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: a big deal, losing a DC who's pretty damn good.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: He's taking you know, van Ney told turn him and
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: was to a pro bowler. He's in Seattle. Now, you know,
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: they just fit the criteria of the team that they
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: lost a lot of pieces, and then you saw today
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: Lamar is down to apparently two h five. Wait, like,
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: that's that's shocking they that they agreed to let him
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: do that again, it's Lamar's show. The guy's got two MVPs.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: If he came to me, I ran the team, He's like,
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: I want to lose twenty pounds. You got to support him, right,
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: But I'm interested to hear your take on that. Would
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: you would you take their over? Are you just going
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: to be you know what, I'll just take their division ods.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: I don't really like their win total because there's just
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: no value there.
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I'm not really in favor of their win total,
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: but taking them on to for the division, I think
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: there could be a little bit of value there. Yeah,
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: I agree, you didn't mention it. But that offensive line
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: has a ton of turn on as well, and we
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: know the way that this team wants to operate. Yes,
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: I know they changed their offensive coordinator before last season,
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: and they are passing the football more, which obviously they
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: needed to do, but they still need to run the ball.
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: They still need to finish out games, and they were
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: struggling to do that last year, and that was with
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: a healthier, you know, a bet more talented offensive line.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: They've lost some of those pieces this year. They do
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: have a lot that they need to replace this offseason,
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: but from a rest perspective alone, they have a huge
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: edge over the rest of that division. And if you
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: want to talk a little bit about the Cincinnati Bengals,
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: because they're in the same division, the concerns that I
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: have for the Bengals are just the rest and this
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: is a good transition, I think into discussing the three
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: games in ten days, which is absurd, but the NFL
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: decided to instill this this season.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: You can see who the three teams are with this
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: stat right. You said there's three teams that fit this criteria, right, Well.
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: There's actually there's actually ten. So I found there were guys.
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: The Jets are another one. So if you go back,
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: if you go back like last year, no teams played
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: three games in ten days, If you went the year before,
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: no teams. In fact, the last five years combined, zero
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: teams played three games in ten days. The NFL got
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: rid of it. They never said why, they just stopped
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: putting it into their schedule, and obviously I think part
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: of the reason is player health and safety and those
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: types of things. It's just hard to ask teams to
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: do that in the last ten years it only happened
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: twice total, and this year it's happening ten times.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: What they're doing is they're using the Christmas Day games
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: as in avenue to then introduce it in other parts
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: of the schedule. So the Christmas Day games, you have
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: a situation where in order to play on a Wednesday,
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: they had to get these teams to play the Saturday before,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: because then that's the same turnaround as a Sunday to Thursday.
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: But then they have them also play on a Sunday,
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: So it goes Sunday to Saturday to Wednesday, which is
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: three ten and in every single one of those games
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: they're likely to have a rest disadvantage, well the second two.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: So what the league did smartly on their part is
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: that they made it so that those two games, which
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: involve four teams, those teams that are gonna play Wednesday,
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: they're going to play the opponents on Saturday. So in
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: other words, those four teams are going to be playing
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: one of their let's play tennis, Like I think it's
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans and the
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. So on one day
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: the Texans play the Chiefs, and then another day the
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: Texans are going to play the Ravens, and so those
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: four teams at least they aren't going to have rest issues.
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: They'll be the same amount of rest in those games.
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: But then, for whatever reason, the league said, aha, we're
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: doing it to four teams for Christmas, let's also do
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: it to six other teams at other points in the
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: season for no real reason at all, because they're getting
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty million from Netflix to do it
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: on these Christmas Day games. So I understand, put Taylor
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: Swift's boyfriend on Christmas, get a hundred fifty million dollars, Okay, fine,
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: But for these other games, these other six teams that
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: have to do this, it's absurd. And the only team
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: in this bunch Simon and Chad who have to deal
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: with a rest disadvantage in the first game of this
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: three game series is the Cincinnati Bengals. And the reason
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: the Cincinnati Bengals have to deal with it is because
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: that first game that they play, So for the for
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: the rest of the teams, it's not a Sunday, Saturday Wednesday.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: They play a Monday, then a Sunday, then a Thursday,
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: so that's the sequence here. They play Dallas on Monday night.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: Dallas had a Thursday game the week before on Thanksgiving,
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: so Dallas or a week and a half before, so
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: Dallas is off a mini bi with rest edge to
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: play Cincinnati on Monday Night football then, and that game's
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: in Dallas, by the way, so they have to travel
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: to Dallas. Dallas has three days rest advantage. Then they
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: have to travel to Tennessee the next week, where they're
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: at a disadvantage because since he's off the Monday night
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: game and Tennessee is not. And then they have to
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: play Cleveland on Thursday back home, so they're doing criss
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: crossing traveling. They're at rest disadvantage in all three of
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: these games. And that's just one issue for the Cincinnati Bengals.
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: There's several other issues. In fact, like I said, on
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: this chart for the prep and rest, they're the lowest
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: ranked team on here. So the positives from a strength
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: the schedule perspective, the Bengals do play an easy schedule.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: The other positive is that when you look at their
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: net rest edge, they aren't one of the bottom ten
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: teams there. But when you look at the individual games
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: and some of the sequences that they're dealing with and
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: some of the difficulties that they're dealing with. It is measurable.
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: It is a factor in there. They're toughest games, some
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: of their toughest games on the schedule. Rest is working
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: against them in all of those games, and they're all
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: on the road. They play Week two in Kansas City.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: Kansas City is off a mini buy from Week one.
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: They play Baltimore in Week ten, that's a short week
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: road game, and I already mentioned this game against the
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: Dallas Cowboys in Dallas, where Dallas is off of a
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: meaning by themselves, and that kicks off the three days
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: three games in ten days. They play five games versus
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: teams that have over seven days to prepare for them.
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: Their Week twelve bye week is partially negated because the
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: Steelers have a mini buy ahead of that game as well.
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: And the Bengals are playing three short week road games
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: this year. They also played three short week road games
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: last year. In both cases that was the most the
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: NFL gave to any team in those seasons. So again
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: they're forcing the Bengals to play these short week road
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: games and back to back years. Why not spread it
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: out a little bit. Why put the Bengals the ones
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: If you want to put them on protect, put on
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: a short week make up, let them play at home.
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: I mean, why are you continuing to send them on
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: the road. I think that's going to make the Bengals
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: fans a little mad.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Clearly, Mike North and the NFL schedulers new Joe Burrow
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: was going to have a herculean main of hair that
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  Speaker 1: starting at just eighty nine dollars. Did point out in
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  Speaker 1: your story and this will be in the book Sharp
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  Speaker 1: Football Analysis Preview. Go get it for five bucks using
• 42:41
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• 42:44
  Speaker 1: it for five bucks. Forty two short week road games
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: up from thirty to thirty eight last year. The Niners
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: in the Bengals taking the brunt of those short week
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: games the most of any team in the NFL. They
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: each have three short week rowad games. I don't know
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: if you have these against the spread stats in front
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: of you, but I do want to run through them
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: because you made a point of talking about there is
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: serious evidence. If you don't have them in front of you,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I have them and can recite them to you, or
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: you can tell me if you have them in front
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: of you.
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got them here. But let's hear you run
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: through them, because I think you'll present a compolling argument.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: In the last two years, teams playing short week road
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: games have only won forty three percent of the time
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: while covering just forty seven percent of the time. In
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: betting parlance, if you're getting a percentage that is over
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent, which is what you would get essentially
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: with this formula. Simon and I, if we're going through
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: the schedule, this is something we would be looking at right.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: This is a system we would be looking at again
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: and again and again. Short week road games impact teams
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: worse as the season goes on. We saw that with
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: the Eagles because of what happened late in the year.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: You get more banged up, you get more run down.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: I know Simon, how you and I feel at the
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: end of the season. It's Week fourteen. We are dragging
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: and we're not even playing. It's exhausting underdogs. After Week
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: six now I feel like we're in mid season four
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: in a short week road game forty one seventeen twenty
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: six percent against straight up the last decade, and have
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: covered just forty percent against the spread of those one
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty games. Simon, if Evan was giving us
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: this stat in the middle of a podcast in mid season,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: it would make us change everything we think about a game.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: And I'd also let you know people worry about it.
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: The books haven't caught up to it then, right If
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: that's the percentages s people always word with this stuf,
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: You're like, well, if Warren's putting this book out, the
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: books have this info, how are they not going to
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: catch up to it? I always tell them that doesn't work.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: Booking does not work that way, not an overnight change, right,
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: It's usually a slow burn. So clearly there is still
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: an advantage to following what we're talking about here, right, Chad.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent more and that is gold right there.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: What you have dug up.
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: We know the books are trying to come out with
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: their lines very quickly once the schedule is set, right boom,
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: the schedule is set. They try to get up lines
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: for all games that are being played, all two hundred
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: and seventy two games be the first one to do that,
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: and then other people might copy the numbers. It takes
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: me a little while, you know. I work on this
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: for days. I don't sleep much. After the schedule comes out,
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: then I write this article which is like nineteen pages
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: in a word document that I submit to submit to
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: the editor who hates my guts after that. But at
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: any rate, it takes a while to come up with
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: this stuff. There's no way the books are incorporating these
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: rest things three days here and six days there, and
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: in their numbers as they're coming up with them, it's
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: based on whatever they're giving home field and the power
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: ratings of these teams. They're not adjusting as much when
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: they're quickly trying to come out with these numbers for
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: every single game. And like Simon said, once we even
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: get to those games, whether it's on the look ahead
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: or the week of the game, there's so many other
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: factors that are being accounted for in the in the
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: number that rest is really not a top priority for
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: the book makers. And I do think it's something that
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: we need to look a little bit more into as
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: we are betting these games. And like I said, it
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: should never be the end all be all, like the
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: singular factor that you use. But a stat like I
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: just shared with you, that's a one stat handicap, right,
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: that's just about rest. If you're a dog on a
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: short week, you've covered only forty percent of games over
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: the last decade from week six onward. That's all it is.
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: That's just a one stat handicap. If you incorporated more
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: stats into it, you might be able to refine that
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: even further. So it's it's it's exciting to find this.
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: It's also exciting that the league hasn't changed anything, and
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: is that the book makers aren't accounting for it enough.
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: Because then we've got kind of like the trifecta where
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: we can keep talking about it on your show, we
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: can keep writing about and doing the research and sharing it,
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: and we can keep betting it and making money off
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: of it, so we get the best of all the
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: possible worlds.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: It's like the luck metric, Chad, right exactly.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're just sort of building, We're building
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: a toolbox of very specific situational weapons that we can
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: apply to different parts of the season. And Simon, it's
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: going to be on you and I to sort of
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: figure out, Okay, how much weight do we give to
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: this versus something else? As we sort of build a formula.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: But with more people like Warren, with more people like
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Kerner and Billy Ward and Nick Giffen who create the
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: luck rankings which we love like those, there's more and
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: more ways to attack these games. I do hope that
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: this is the one show where nobody who is making
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: markets is actually listening, because we know we move lines.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: We've seen it already this year with a variety of
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: win totals, season one games, you know, super Bowl ads.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: My question for Warren before we let you go, I
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: should have asked from the beginning, how the fuck did
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: you think of this? Look? What made you look into
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: this idea?
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: This was tipped off to me from a general manager
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: years ago, several years ago, and there was a specific
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: issue with his team where he was frustrated about about
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: having to go on these road games on short weeks.
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: That was actually the stat that he cared. He was like,
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: and ironically enough is because him and the owner were
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: talking and they wanted to host more of these games
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: because of the money that you could make when you're
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: hosting these games, and the disadvantage that he saw in
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: playing in these primetime games on the road on a
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: short week, it's harder for his team to win those games.
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: He wanted to host those games instead, and he for
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: years he was going on the road and never hosting
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: these games at home. So that was something I started
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: looking into. But then I began expanding and expanding this
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: analysis to try to think of what are all the
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: disadvantageous situations that teams might find themselves in, and what
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: should be fair, you know, and if there are going
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: to be schedules that certain number of games have to
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: be played in this situation, then try to balance it
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: out between all the teams so they're all trying to
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: deal with it to some extent, don't it shouldn't be
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: screwing a team so much and helping another team so much.
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: And that's where these net rest edges came into play.
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: And it just over the years, adding more and more.
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: I will tell you that when I was first doing this,
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: like I don't know, five five years ago, let's say
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: the four games in seventeen days was a factor, but
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: there was no three games in ten days, which is
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: even worse. But four games in seventeen days used to
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: happen for a couple of teams, and then two years
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: ago they stopped incorporating it. So I still kept that
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: column in my matrix here, but it was just zero.
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: And then last year for the twenty twenty three schedule,
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: because they didn't incorporate it again, I deleted that column entirely.
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: I said, Okay, the NFL has moved away from this,
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: no four games in seventeen days, and then all of
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: a sudden, this year is happening I want to say,
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: seven times where which is way more than it's happened
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: in the past. And now we've got these three games
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: in ten days, which is a player safety issue that
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: the players should be made aware of as well. In
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: the NFLPA to try to get a little bit bigger
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: portion of that pie, so to speak, because they're the
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: ones that are putting their bodies on the line here
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: so that the league can put more games in prime time.
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: But it's sort of built itself up over the years,
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: and I enjoy doing it. It's very stressful, but nobody
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: else out there is really covering it to this degree.
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: So it's important to do the research, share the analysis,
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: and then talk about it.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: It's amazing stuff. I'm glad you're doing it, Simon and
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: I love it. Sharp Footballanalysis dot Com is where you
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: can read the full story that Simon and I are
• 51:03
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• 51:49
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky gambling problem called one
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gamon or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa,
• 52:02
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• 52:06
  Speaker 1: with a new episode of The Favorites Live on the
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Action Network. You two page eleven AM Eastern download at Spotify, Apple, Pose,
• 52:13
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• 52:16
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• 52:18
  Speaker 1: until Thursday. Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
• 52:32
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• 52:35
  Speaker 1: hundred Gambler