Latest / Simply Bitcoin / EVERY MARKET PREDICTION WAS WRONG!! So What Comes NEXT? | EP 1381

Transcript

EVERY MARKET PREDICTION WAS WRONG!! So What Comes NEXT? | EP 1381 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  No, there's been a lot of debate as to whether the four year
• 0:04
  Bitcoin cycle is broken. But what comes next?
• 0:08
  All the signs are pointing to the beginning of a bear market.
• 0:13
  But. Quarter ends in one week and it
• 0:17
  seems like the money printer or better said, not the quarter.
• 0:20
  What am I talking about? QT ends in one week and it seems
• 0:24
  like the money printer is about to be turned on again.
• 0:28
  We have a lot of conflicting data to cover, but before we get
• 0:32
  into all of that, let's check out this clip from Lynn Alden
• 0:35
  from the What Bitcoin Did podcast where she was discussing
• 0:39
  this very topic. There's been pretty weak kind of
• 0:44
  just broad retail demand. The the narrative has been
• 0:50
  elsewhere. And so the combination of pretty
• 0:53
  concentrated demand side stuff, kind of moderate liquidity
• 0:57
  situation and then the ongoing pressure of of, you know, O GS
• 1:01
  or semi O GS selling into the strength is, is giving some
• 1:05
  weakness. The, the bullish part I would
• 1:08
  say is that there's, there's no particular reason to believe
• 1:10
  that there's a four year cycle intact.
• 1:12
  We haven't hit euphoric levels this cycle compared to prior
• 1:16
  cycles. Therefore, there's less of a
• 1:18
  reason to expect kind of a major capitulation of sorts.
• 1:22
  I mean, that's I guess famous last words, but basically you
• 1:26
  hit you hit less euphoric highs, just kind of less to potentially
• 1:29
  wash out. And I think as we return to a
• 1:34
  more pro liquidity environment and as some of the the coins
• 1:38
  that were maybe held for the wrong reasons are already kind
• 1:40
  of evacuated, I think the the cycle could you know go on for
• 1:45
  longer than people expect because it's not driven by the
• 1:47
  halving, it's driven by broader macro and interest in the asset
• 1:52
  itself. So Lynn Alden always drop in the
• 1:55
  alpha and of course, shout out to Danny Knowles and the What
• 1:58
  Bitcoin Did podcast. I really recommend watching that
• 2:01
  episode. It was a fantastic episode.
• 2:03
  Lynn drops so much, so much sauce.
• 2:05
  But yeah, guys, this is where we are.
• 2:08
  Bitcoins going to 0. It's over.
• 2:09
  Pack it up, sell the chairs. It's done.
• 2:12
  The Ponzi scheme has ended. No, but we've been here before.
• 2:17
  Personally, this is going to be my third bear market.
• 2:20
  If it is a bear market, it's going to be opties 3rd as well.
• 2:23
  And yeah, you know, if this is your first time in Bitcoin,
• 2:26
  welcome to the Bitcoin roller coaster.
• 2:28
  At least we're getting some volatility.
• 2:30
  You know, Bitcoin was a stable coin for all of 2025.
• 2:34
  But you know, again, this is uncharted territory.
• 2:36
  This is where I agree with Lynn 100% because we never got a
• 2:41
  euphoria phase. In fact, as prices stand now, we
• 2:46
  are red for the year. So we had three the, the, the
• 2:50
  meme, the Bitcoin meme for anyone who's not in the know is
• 2:53
  3 green, one red. What does that mean?
• 2:55
  Yeah, that means that you have 3 green, red, 3 green years.
• 2:59
  The last green year tends to be the parabolic year, which is
• 3:02
  supposed to be 2025. And then you have 1 bear market
• 3:05
  year. How things are structured right
• 3:08
  now is it seems like we've had two green years, 2023 and 2024
• 3:14
  were fantastic from a price action perspective.
• 3:16
  And then you know, 20/20/2025 has been lackluster to say the
• 3:22
  least. We did hit an all time high in
• 3:24
  October of $126,000, but again, there was no euphoria.
• 3:29
  I think the last time I felt euphoria was and it was just a
• 3:33
  sliver of it was November and December of 2024, really right
• 3:39
  before the Trump inauguration. So I've been making the jokes
• 3:43
  about this, you know, like bring back Operation Choke .2 Point O,
• 3:47
  bring back the Biden administration cause at least
• 3:50
  the price was pumping. But to go back to Lynn's point
• 3:53
  and Opti, if you could pull this up, 'cause I do want to show
• 3:55
  everybody Bitcoin's performances throughout the years.
• 3:59
  The Q4, you know that website that you always go to.
• 4:03
  So yeah, guys, cheap sats, this is great.
• 4:06
  You got Bitcoin at a discount, 20% down, 30% down.
• 4:10
  I also want to show you guys the fear and greed indicator, Opti,
• 4:14
  if you can pull that up as well. It's never been this bad.
• 4:20
  And I'll and I'll show you guys an example of a of a of a post
• 4:23
  and then we'll go through some other source material as well.
• 4:27
  And of course, guys, you guys know the deal.
• 4:29
  We'll be here to, you know, cover this while, you know, we
• 4:32
  experience another Bitcoin bear market.
• 4:35
  If if that is what is in the cards for us.
• 4:38
  But this one I want to show you guys check this out.
• 4:42
  This is the lowest fear ever lower than even FTX collapse
• 4:48
  returning will be massive. Let's see, so the FTX collapse
• 4:52
  where you know, the the price of Bitcoin nuked to $16,000 right
• 4:59
  now as we're sitting at 90 or 88,000.
• 5:02
  But 86,669 holy cow, literally like we're at we're at a worse
• 5:13
  sentiment right now than we were at the bottom or basically the
• 5:18
  bottom of the last bear market. So, you know, this goes through
• 5:23
  this evolution that Opti and I have been going through and we
• 5:27
  we talk you guys through this whole process with Opti and I
• 5:30
  are feeling what we're talking about.
• 5:32
  You know, this is the number one culture show in Bitcoin after
• 5:35
  all, right? And this has been a very
• 5:39
  surprising cycle. Very unexpected things have
• 5:44
  happened. And the price action is one of
• 5:47
  them, right? Which is currently what we're
• 5:49
  enduring. Now, again, I've been saying
• 5:51
  this the last couple days, I'm going to repeat myself.
• 5:54
  So be it. This is exciting for me.
• 5:58
  And the reason it's exciting is because, and I tweeted this out
• 6:02
  the other day and it almost got like something along the lines
• 6:08
  of did we drop off? Yeah, it's acting weird again.
• 6:13
  So I, I tweeted this out the other day, but I basically said
• 6:16
  something along the lines of like, I'm excited and you're
• 6:20
  like, Nico, why the hell would you be excited with this price
• 6:24
  action? Like, are you regarded?
• 6:28
  And I would say it's exciting because no one knows what is
• 6:34
  going to happen, which is the way markets should work.
• 6:39
  One of the things that worried me in the beginning of the year,
• 6:42
  and you guys could go back to these episodes, I was talking to
• 6:45
  Opti and I was like, dude, like everyone has it marked that the
• 6:51
  end of the year we're gonna go parabolic.
• 6:54
  Like everyone took that to the bank literally.
• 6:57
  And that's clearly not clearly, as you guys could see, not
• 7:02
  what's happening now. If you could pull up that
• 7:04
  previous chart, Opti, I wanted to talk about that for a second
• 7:08
  just to kind of give you guys a perspective and I'm a little a
• 7:12
  little blind here, so could you zoom in, Opti?
• 7:15
  So we're going to go through all the Q fours.
• 7:18
  So Q4 of 2014, we were down 16%. Q 4 of 2018, we were down 42
• 7:26
  percent. Q4 of 2019, we were down 13
• 7:29
  percent. Q4 of 2022, we were down 15% and
• 7:34
  if you could scroll up, 'cause it's kind of covering it Opti Q4
• 7:39
  of 2025, we are down 22%. So it's been literally one of
• 7:47
  the worst performing Q fours in Bitcoin's history.
• 7:52
  Now, I know we still have a month left.
• 7:57
  The good news, as I said in the beginning, the intro, is that a
• 8:01
  Pow has officially signaled that QT is going to be over in
• 8:06
  December 1st. So the money printers could be,
• 8:09
  you know, turned back on, but you know, enjoy the ride.
• 8:14
  Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Bitcoin roller coaster.
• 8:17
  It's back. The uncertainty is back.
• 8:20
  The expectations have been crushed.
• 8:23
  They've been ground down to 0, right?
• 8:26
  And that actually has brought life back into me again because
• 8:31
  we went through this very, very boring sideways action for so
• 8:36
  many months. And during that boring sideways
• 8:39
  action came this expectation that Bitcoin was going to
• 8:44
  perform. That was the expectation of the
• 8:46
  general consensus of the market. And as markets do what markets
• 8:51
  do best, guess what happened? The market did exactly the
• 8:56
  opposite of what everyone was expecting, right?
• 9:01
  These are what markets do. So right now, if you go on X and
• 9:06
  you go on any of your favorite influencers or YouTube creators
• 9:13
  and you look at what they think is going to happen and
• 9:16
  potentially it's going to happen, nobody has got it right
• 9:21
  this cycle. Nobody.
• 9:23
  We had professionally written reports.
• 9:26
  I'm not going to name any specific people by massive
• 9:30
  corporations, massive banks saying 150K by the end of the
• 9:35
  year, in the beginning of the year, just to, you know, remind
• 9:40
  you guys, we were throwing out 300405100K.
• 9:44
  That's what that's what everyone was saying.
• 9:47
  And then as time went by, those price, those price expectations
• 9:52
  went down, then they went down to 150.
• 9:55
  Then I saw a report the other day and went down to 125, right?
• 10:01
  So yes, welcome to Bitcoin. Life has been brought back into
• 10:06
  me because now we are in complete uncertainty.
• 10:11
  We're in complete fear. No one knows what is going to
• 10:15
  happen to the price. Everyone has got it wrong.
• 10:19
  All the chain analysis, all the analytics, all the indicators
• 10:24
  that point to a market top, none of them went off not one.
• 10:34
  Welcome to Bitcoin. I'm excited.
• 10:36
  This is this is fascinating to me.
• 10:38
  This is exciting. This is this uncertainty is
• 10:41
  great. I like it.
• 10:43
  Life has brought it. It's it's brought life back into
• 10:46
  me again. So guys, enjoy the ride, enjoy
• 10:51
  this the the cheap sats and remember we are on a mission and
• 10:56
  that mission is the separation of money and state.
• 11:01
  And if you can't handle the volatility, go buy the S&P 500.
• 11:06
  In fact, this year you probably would have been better off if
• 11:09
  you did that. But if you're here for the core
• 11:12
  mission and what is the core mission to become sovereign
• 11:16
  individuals, then the price going down is fantastic news for
• 11:21
  you because it means cheaper sats, which is great.
• 11:25
  So you should, you know, again, you could call it cope, you can
• 11:29
  call it opium, you can call it whatever you want to call it,
• 11:33
  right? But the reality is that the
• 11:35
  reality is that this cycle did not play out how every single
• 11:39
  person expected. That's how markets work and the
• 11:43
  reality is that we're sitting at A at $86,000 on November 20th.
• 11:52
  Opti, I'm going to pass it on to you.
• 11:53
  That's my bit bro, because we, we had a lot of pre show, you
• 11:59
  know, back and forth kind of talking about this.
• 12:02
  How are you feeling right now bro?
• 12:04
  I'm I'm honestly having fun. Look guys, I.
• 12:09
  We, we literally went through the what, what's it called
• 12:12
  again, the Wall Street chart and we were like, OK, what if, if
• 12:17
  it's still kind of playing out, where are we right now?
• 12:20
  And I am, I am firmly in denial right now.
• 12:23
  OK, I know I've been telling you guys.
• 12:25
  My buddy's been hitting me up and he look, I said I wasn't
• 12:28
  going to give him the satisfaction yesterday, but he
• 12:31
  kind of nailed it. And I'm not going to lie, he
• 12:33
  kind of nailed these tops. Though I think he's wrong in the
• 12:36
  sense that I'm still convinced this is the last shakeout.
• 12:40
  Again, I told you guys. I'm in denial.
• 12:43
  I I still think, I still think we still have life in US.
• 12:47
  I know all, all of the kind of models have been broken this
• 12:50
  year, which is kind of what I was telling you yesterday.
• 12:53
  I was having this talk with Nico, I believe it was Monday
• 12:55
  night. He called me like 10:00.
• 12:57
  And he's like, dude, I just went down this rabbit hole of every
• 13:00
  influencer, every price analysis person, every Bitcoiner that
• 13:05
  makes any kind of forecast of where we're going.
• 13:09
  And I'm more confused about where we are than ever.
• 13:12
  And I, again, I was telling you guys this yesterday and then
• 13:16
  today, you know, obviously we wake up and we're getting ready
• 13:19
  for the show and now we're at what, like 86 or something?
• 13:23
  We're back at 87. All right, there's dozen life in
• 13:26
  us, but as we were sitting. Here I I'm very clearly in
• 13:30
  denial about where we are. If you're looking at this
• 13:34
  objectively, it does, it does look like we are in bear market
• 13:37
  territory. But again, because everyone is
• 13:40
  saying that we're going into a bear market, we're going down
• 13:43
  to, I don't know, 30, 30K or something like that, you know,
• 13:45
  58K gangs still got control here.
• 13:49
  It, it's making me feel like what, what would be the opposite
• 13:53
  of that? Obviously, I'm, I'm not really
• 13:55
  convinced that we're going to just start ripping right away,
• 13:58
  but what has been the trend all year long here?
• 14:02
  It is more sideways action. So I'm watching this price right
• 14:06
  now and wondering if we're going to continue to go sideways here.
• 14:09
  I remember British Huddle's been out there on Twitter and he he
• 14:13
  called the 87 K drop. He's like there's not enough
• 14:16
  pain in the market yet. And we finally hit 87.
• 14:19
  So I'm kind of on that that page that we're just going to keep
• 14:22
  going. Like we're hit, we hit those
• 14:24
  numbers, we're going to go sideways.
• 14:25
  I thought it was going to be the CME gap futures or CME futures
• 14:29
  gap that was going to kind of be the bottom 87.
• 14:32
  We're at 87. So if we can hold this area,
• 14:35
  then I'm, I'm going to continue to maintain my denial until I
• 14:40
  see further proof and we go lower.
• 14:42
  I'm, I'm still, I'm still hopeful.
• 14:44
  I, I, I'm still, I'm still holding out that we got another
• 14:47
  leg up on us right now because again, my, my basic premise is
• 14:51
  one thing. And I said it yesterday on the
• 14:53
  show, if you are these institutions and you're finally
• 14:57
  able to get into the space, what would be the thing you want to
• 14:59
  do? You want to shake out the true
• 15:01
  believers and this price action, though Bitcoin is aren't going
• 15:05
  to sell all of their bags. This price action is making
• 15:09
  everyone feel weird. Everyone's feeling that you know
• 15:11
  that bear market bottom of your stomach drop and we're like,
• 15:15
  man, is it is it happening again?
• 15:17
  And even my most bullish friends are starting to feel that we are
• 15:21
  finally entering a bear market. There's only a few holdouts left
• 15:24
  with me that are saying no, dude, this is the final
• 15:27
  shakeout. Do not get shaken out.
• 15:29
  And again, the the more my buddy keeps telling me he's selling
• 15:32
  his bags out he's going to buy lower, the more I just keep.
• 15:35
  Thinking it's like. He's going to get caught off
• 15:38
  sides. Maybe this is me just being
• 15:40
  hopeful, but it's very clearly obvious that everyone has been
• 15:45
  wrong about the price. We thought the institution's
• 15:48
  coming in. We're going to kind of maintain
• 15:50
  a certain trend. It looks like everything is out
• 15:52
  of the table. It looks like we are in
• 15:54
  uncharted waters. The more I see people panicking
• 15:57
  about what's going to happen, the more people are thinking
• 15:59
  it's over, the more I'm. I just keep thinking like this
• 16:03
  is the shake out the the the Max Payne scenario is everyone
• 16:07
  thinking it's going to 0 selling out and then they're chasing
• 16:10
  their bags right now. So look, I don't know what's
• 16:13
  going on here, but you asked me how am I feeling?
• 16:15
  Right when I was sitting on the show, you know, you start to
• 16:18
  feel the, the bear market pit, you know, your stomach dropping
• 16:22
  on you. And I hate that feeling, guys.
• 16:24
  I hate when my stomach drops like literally in cars and, and
• 16:27
  and roller coasters. I don't really like it, but as I
• 16:29
  was feeling the the, you know, my, my stomach drop on me.
• 16:33
  I was low key sitting here just like giddy.
• 16:35
  I'm like, all right, well, you know, we wanted some price
• 16:39
  action. We wanted some price movement.
• 16:40
  We've been complaining all year year about it being a stable
• 16:43
  coin and now it's dropping on us and I I'm starting to feel life
• 16:48
  back in me now. Am I ready to go into a multi
• 16:51
  year bear market? Not.
• 16:53
  At all. That's going to be brutal.
• 16:55
  The last one was brutal. So I'm I'm very clearly in
• 16:59
  denial. I I still I'm still holding out.
• 17:01
  There's still a lot of game left in 2025.
• 17:05
  We have, you know, about six weeks left.
• 17:07
  Anything could happen. So I'm going to be in denial
• 17:10
  until about Christmas time. I'll I'll tell you guys that
• 17:13
  much. Hopefully we get some life back
• 17:15
  in the markets. But this extended cycle, as much
• 17:17
  as I don't like this meme, it does oops, wrong one.
• 17:21
  It does seem to be playing out, especially when you consider the
• 17:26
  macro conditions going on again. Globally, it looks.
• 17:30
  Like the money printers are about to go on and the only
• 17:33
  thing that seemingly can can save us right now is the money
• 17:37
  printers going Burr again. As we've been covering as anyone
• 17:40
  that's been covering the macro markets have been showing this
• 17:43
  has been the driest global liquidity we've seen.
• 17:46
  The business cycles are absolutely cooked.
• 17:49
  And I, I do, I'm, I am going to read the Geordie Bizer and he
• 17:53
  dropped a new article and it, it's basically making the case
• 17:56
  that he's bullish for 2026. So I don't know.
• 17:59
  I, I literally don't know. We say it all the time.
• 18:02
  You know, sometimes you have a really good feeling about where
• 18:04
  things are going. Like like what you were saying
• 18:06
  the other day, Nico, you know, you in the past you could look
• 18:11
  at the price pumping and you, and you have kind of an
• 18:13
  expectation of what it's going to do.
• 18:15
  And then you and then you see the price dumping and you sort
• 18:18
  of have an expectation that hey, it's going to go back up where
• 18:21
  we are now. We're just like what?
• 18:24
  It's just going sideways forever.
• 18:27
  What's going on here? Yeah, so, and let's talk about
• 18:29
  the euphoria aspect and, and a lot of these terms, perhaps you
• 18:33
  guys are not familiar. So we're referring to the famous
• 18:37
  Wall Street CHEAT SHEET. You can go to
• 18:38
  wallstreetcheatsheet.com. You can take a look at it.
• 18:42
  It's become a meme at this point.
• 18:43
  But what tends to happen at the end of a bull market, including
• 18:48
  in traditional markets, is you have this thrill and this
• 18:51
  euphoria phase where you feel fantastic.
• 18:54
  You feel like the price is going to continue going up forever.
• 18:57
  We never really had that right. So essentially we've gone from,
• 19:04
  you know, I would say hope, you know, or, or you know, hope or,
• 19:10
  or or optimism to, to we've, you know, Opti's in denial.
• 19:17
  I'm, I've already, you know. I'm totally in denial.
• 19:20
  I'm, I'm. I've already, I'm already.
• 19:23
  I've already come to. I've already come to.
• 19:26
  You're already at depression. No, I mean it, it's not I like I
• 19:30
  wouldn't, I wouldn't call it depression or anything.
• 19:33
  I, I've just, I've lived, I've just come to terms with the fact
• 19:37
  that, you know, it seems like the four year cycle, if it seems
• 19:41
  like it's intact at the moment, right, like the four year cycle
• 19:45
  is intact until it's not. And what I'm seeing is that it
• 19:49
  it, it looks like it's intact so far.
• 19:51
  Now, of course, you have geniuses like Lynn Alden,
• 19:55
  Michael Saylor, very respectable, intelligent people
• 20:00
  saying, listen, this time is different because of the amount
• 20:03
  of institutional demand and because of the players who are
• 20:07
  buying Bitcoin. That could be true, right?
• 20:11
  Like you know what the curveball would be in 2026 if, and I've
• 20:16
  been saying this for the last couple weeks, if all of a sudden
• 20:19
  we were pumping again, bro, and we were making an all time high
• 20:22
  in 2026. That would be uncharted
• 20:26
  territory where we already are now, right?
• 20:29
  So this is exciting. We get to experience this with
• 20:33
  you guys. I've been in, I've, I've, this
• 20:36
  is my third cycle. So again, this is super exciting
• 20:39
  to me because I don't, I don't have any, I don't have anything
• 20:42
  to, to look back and say, Oh, you know, I know this feeling or
• 20:46
  I've been here before, or this is, you know, this is how
• 20:49
  Bitcoin behaves. And no, it's, it's, it's, it's,
• 20:52
  it's, it's completely uncharted territory.
• 20:55
  But I do remember the feeling of, no, it's a bear market,
• 20:59
  right? I do remember that feeling.
• 21:01
  I think I've come to terms with it a lot faster than Opti has.
• 21:06
  But that's where I'm at right now.
• 21:08
  I'm saying, OK, it's a bear market.
• 21:11
  You know, bitcoins going to correct for the next year or so.
• 21:14
  We might go back down to 6070504030.
• 21:19
  No one knows. This is this is the exciting
• 21:22
  part. But again, it becomes the best
• 21:24
  buying opportunity for people that are thinking long term and
• 21:29
  for people that are in it for the revolution, for people that
• 21:32
  are in it for the money, for people that are in it for the
• 21:34
  short term kind of price action. All those people get washed out.
• 21:39
  All the tourists, they all get washed out.
• 21:41
  All the leverage gets washed out.
• 21:44
  All the alt coins to put it nicely.
• 21:47
  All of that, it just goes to 0, right?
• 21:50
  And then Bitcoin survives. Bitcoin keeps on pumping, right?
• 21:53
  So this is where we're at. I think me and Opti disagree in
• 21:57
  terms of, you know, where we're at.
• 22:01
  I, I would say I'm in the capitulation.
• 22:03
  Or The thing is, I, I, I won't even get angry.
• 22:06
  I won't even get angry at this point.
• 22:08
  I've just, I've been through this so many times by now that
• 22:11
  I'm just like, OK, it is what it is, you know, but hey, look, if
• 22:15
  you look at it on the bright side, you know, we had a run
• 22:18
  from $15,000 to $125,000 in a span of like 2 years, two, 2 1/2
• 22:27
  years, 223 years. That's an insane return.
• 22:31
  That's fantastic. Of course, that, that takes into
• 22:34
  account that you've had, you have to buy the bottom, of
• 22:36
  course. But regardless, you know, it's
• 22:42
  Bitcoin had a, had a great run and now we're in uncharted
• 22:47
  territory. Is the four year cycle intact?
• 22:51
  Is 2026, is the midterm year going to be a bear market year?
• 22:55
  Or are we going to see something different?
• 22:57
  And I, I mean, you have very intelligent people saying, Hey,
• 23:02
  you know, this, this cycle is, is fundamentally different.
• 23:06
  And Lynn, to use her word, she was, she was, she's expecting 6
• 23:10
  figures in 2026 and 2027, right? So again, you know, these aren't
• 23:16
  just, you know, random, random, you know, plebs or, or
• 23:20
  bitcoiners on X that are just, you know, you know, Shiitake
• 23:25
  posting right, Like they're, they're, you know, these are
• 23:27
  macro heavyweight geniuses that are saying this right.
• 23:32
  Another thing that I'll mention too, is we played you guys the
• 23:35
  clip of sailor. I, I don't know if it was on
• 23:37
  yesterday's show the day before, but I, I, I heard a, a hint of
• 23:43
  nervous nervousness in his voice.
• 23:46
  Right? Did.
• 23:48
  You. And one of the things that that
• 23:51
  you guys have to understand is that Microstrategy's current
• 23:55
  average price right now is $75,000.
• 23:59
  We're at 87,250, right? So Microstrategy's average
• 24:06
  buying price is 75,000, we're at 87,269.
• 24:11
  Yeah, but that that doesn't mean he's getting liquidated.
• 24:13
  So it doesn't mean he's getting liquidated, but you and I both
• 24:17
  know that if that number hits, what do you think's going to
• 24:20
  happen to the stock? Cooked What do you?
• 24:23
  Think's going to happen to the stock?
• 24:25
  It's going to look like a shit coin chart.
• 24:27
  Well, even more than it already. Does.
• 24:29
  I mean, I wouldn't call MicroStrategy a shit coin.
• 24:31
  No, no, I'm saying it, but the price.
• 24:33
  Will look like a shit coin charge.
• 24:34
  Yeah, the price action will definitely look you know it it
• 24:37
  will definitely be very volatile, but at the same time I
• 24:41
  think that's a fantastic buying opportunity as well.
• 24:46
  I'm I'm personally a spot Bitcoin buy Bitcoin put into
• 24:49
  self custody type of guy. But you know, if you're, if
• 24:53
  you're kind of coming from the traditional financial system and
• 24:56
  you you want more of a leverage bet, I promise you that
• 25:01
  MicroStrategy is going to RIP once the bull is back.
• 25:06
  The only question I think on everyone's mind right now is how
• 25:09
  long is the bull going to take to come back?
• 25:11
  Well, and how low? And how low are we going to go,
• 25:14
  right? But again, if you've been taking
• 25:17
  our advice, staying humble, stacking Sats, none of this
• 25:21
  effects you. You're just going to get cheaper
• 25:23
  Bitcoin, right? So yeah, it's exciting times.
• 25:27
  I'm personally excited because again, we are an uncharted
• 25:31
  territory. I love it.
• 25:32
  It's fantastic. Nobody knows what's going to
• 25:35
  happen. It's so effing cool that that I
• 25:39
  can say that, right? Because that wasn't the case.
• 25:42
  That wasn't the case for so long.
• 25:44
  Everyone knew. Everyone knew, everyone's like,
• 25:47
  Oh my God, Q4. We were on that boat.
• 25:50
  We were like, dude. Q 4/20/22.
• 25:53
  October 300 K by end of year. Dude, my oracles were wrong.
• 25:57
  This is the first time they've been wrong, I'll tell you that
• 25:59
  much. So anyways, if you guys are
• 26:02
  enjoying the show so far, I want you guys to smash that like
• 26:06
  button. Do you want to give a shout out
• 26:08
  to the audience? 663 live viewers on YouTube.
• 26:12
  Almost 100 live viewers on Rumble.
• 26:14
  Dude, it's therapy. Everyone's tuning in.
• 26:17
  And thousands this is what simply bitcoins all about will
• 26:20
  be will be your guide to the separation of state separation
• 26:24
  of money and state and that includes being your online
• 26:27
  therapist while the Bitcoin price is dumping yeah why we
• 26:30
  cope as well wait put my volume. Up on your headphones Yes, thank
• 26:35
  you. I I did do a poll in here and we
• 26:38
  don't we don't have enough data in here, but it's literally
• 26:41
  split right now 5050 if the bull run is over.
• 26:44
  So I was I was hoping honestly, I was hoping to see that it
• 26:49
  would be 80% of you guys saying that it was over because then I
• 26:53
  would know it wasn't over. But since we're so split and
• 26:56
  everyone's confused, I, I, I have no indicator of, of what's
• 27:01
  going on. So yeah, unfavorable.
• 27:04
  It's exciting time. So did you?
• 27:06
  Did you post the poll yet? Yeah, yeah, it's, it's live.
• 27:09
  It's live right now. But it's OK.
• 27:12
  Bull Run is not over 52% so far so.
• 27:16
  We're going lower there. You go.
• 27:19
  So anyways, guys, enjoy the ride.
• 27:22
  Of course we're going to be here on air covering it.
• 27:26
  You know, and again guys, historically speaking, when you
• 27:29
  have these types of downturns 3040 fifty 6070% that that
• 27:36
  becomes the best effing buying. Well, well, Nico, I also, I, I
• 27:41
  do I, I'm glad you brought that up because I, I was going to
• 27:43
  mention it, but I forgot, You know, historically like 30% pull
• 27:48
  backs in a bull market are pretty normal.
• 27:50
  And yeah, we're a little lower than 30% right now, but we, we
• 27:54
  basically just had a 30% pull back.
• 27:56
  And it is interesting that we, we are literally living the meme
• 28:00
  right now where, you know, Bitcoin hits all time high of
• 28:02
  126 K, it goes to 90K and everyone's like it's over.
• 28:07
  Like we are literally living the memes right now.
• 28:09
  So. Part of me is.
• 28:11
  Still again, I'm in I'm full denial.
• 28:13
  I'm in full denial right now. I'm still this is a correct
• 28:16
  we're going to go higher, but you know, everything is kind of
• 28:22
  leaning towards bear market. We're we're we're entering the
• 28:24
  bear market. So who knows?
• 28:26
  Yeah, I mean, again, I think this is uncharted territory.
• 28:30
  No one really knows for certain. I'm going to keep saying that no
• 28:34
  one knows, but I think some really smart people are saying,
• 28:39
  look like, you know, this time is different, right?
• 28:42
  This time is different. So let's see if this time is
• 28:45
  actually different or let's see if, you know, the four year
• 28:49
  cycles stay intact and we are on the verge of, you know, entering
• 28:56
  into a bear market. Another thing I'll say too, dude
• 28:58
  is like, you know, this is very aggressive.
• 29:02
  Like we've dropped already 30%, right?
• 29:05
  So you know, it's a a very aggressive kind of pull back
• 29:09
  already that we've experienced. So I just wanna put that on your
• 29:14
  guys's radar. Anyways, it's gonna be a
• 29:16
  fantastic show. Guys.
• 29:18
  We have a clip of, of Jack Mahler's talking about his, his
• 29:24
  treasury company that he has with Tether and SoftBank called
• 29:27
  21, kind of like a change in strategy, which I I thought that
• 29:31
  was really interesting. And then we have an article, an
• 29:35
  update for you guys regarding the sentencing of the Samurai
• 29:39
  Wall developers. And then of course, we'll talk
• 29:41
  about the implications of that. And then I think during the
• 29:44
  culture segment, we're just going to vibe it out.
• 29:46
  So anyways, guys, it's going to be a fantastic show.
• 29:48
  We have tons to cover. You guys are going to want to
• 29:50
  stay tuned. But before we get into that, I
• 29:53
  do want to give a very special shout out, of course, to our
• 29:57
  lead sponsor, The best place to build your automatic self
• 30:01
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• 30:55
  All right, everybody, you guys are going to want to stay tuned.
• 30:57
  We have tons to cover. We're going to be right back in
• 31:00
  just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
• 31:09
  our partner Stamp Seed. Is your Bitcoin and cold storage
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  where the words are. Stamp your seed on Stamp seed
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  and use promo code simply to get 15% off anything on the Stamp
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  se-ed.com store. All right, everybody, we are
• 32:22
  back. At the time of recording, the
• 32:24
  Bitcoin price is $87,380. Block height 924,452 Market cap
• 32:32
  1.74 trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap 6.1% decline
• 32:38
  from all time high -30.7%. So it's a 30.
• 32:42
  It's officially a 30% discount right now.
• 32:46
  As Opti was saying, this is normal in the course of bull
• 32:49
  market. Well, and and.
• 32:51
  Historically. Historically, we don't know
• 32:53
  where we are now. So this has not been normal for
• 32:56
  this bull market, is that correct?
• 32:57
  I mean, we had no pump like we've been sideways, so 30% down
• 33:03
  feels brutal. So yes, so anyways, I do have
• 33:06
  this clip from Jack Maulers and then of course me and Opti will
• 33:10
  talk about it. Yeah, Yeah.
• 33:12
  So it shouldn't be clear, Jack. I mean, you're saying strategies
• 33:14
  model depends on perpetual leverage while 21's model
• 33:17
  depends on perpetual accumulation?
• 33:19
  Because those are two very different philosophies.
• 33:22
  Yeah, I think, you know, this could sound extreme or or sound
• 33:25
  like a dig, but you know, it's not.
• 33:27
  We want to be the treasury company that can afford it
• 33:30
  right. We, you know, if you look at
• 33:31
  tether and myself and our leadership team.
• 33:33
  So I Co founded the business with tether.
• 33:35
  Our largest outside investor is SoftBank.
• 33:37
  You know we have what it takes to build massive cash generating
• 33:41
  businesses within the industry. Strike is one of the most
• 33:43
  profitable per employee Bitcoin companies in the world.
• 33:46
  Tether's probably the most profitable per employee company
• 33:49
  period in the history of mankind.
• 33:51
  So we have lots of ideas and lots of future plans to build
• 33:55
  cash flow within the market that gives investors an ability to
• 33:58
  participate in Bitcoin's story through an operating rating
• 34:00
  business. And then conversely, we're
• 34:02
  already the third largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
• 34:05
  We will be able to add to that position substantially once
• 34:08
  we're approved. And we want to be the largest
• 34:09
  holder of Bitcoin. And we think, you know, we can
• 34:12
  take the best of what strategy is, which is a large Bitcoin
• 34:15
  holder and ability to accumulate, whether it's through
• 34:17
  monetizing volatility, cheap cost of capital, access to the
• 34:20
  capital markets. And the best of someone like
• 34:23
  Coinbase, which is a first mover and a leader within the
• 34:25
  industries they focus, which Tether and I have been in our
• 34:28
  careers. So that's us.
• 34:29
  We do not necessarily want to add leverage to something like
• 34:33
  our M NAV. We do not want to add leverage
• 34:35
  to our common equity necessarily.
• 34:37
  That puts a lot of pressure on future dilution and
• 34:40
  shareholders. Do you have to finance, you
• 34:43
  know, we don't want new investors being responsible to
• 34:46
  finance, you know, existing preferred owners necessarily
• 34:50
  unless, you know, we're missing something.
• 34:52
  And if we are, we're going to copy Michael Saylor.
• 34:55
  But so far we're, we're kind of we're watching closely and have
• 35:00
  have more of a directional focus on, on maybe optimizing for, for
• 35:04
  cash flows that would finance something like convertible bonds
• 35:07
  that we would raise in the future.
• 35:09
  That's interesting. Yeah.
• 35:10
  No, I mean the differentiator is there as I, as I was talking to
• 35:12
  somebody this past weekend and they said, you know, are these
• 35:14
  corporate treasury companies just turning into leveraged
• 35:17
  Bitcoin ETFs? Yeah.
• 35:20
  But the the interesting thing about that question is there are
• 35:23
  leveraged, there are leveraged Bitcoin ETFs.
• 35:26
  If you want to leverage a Bitcoin ETF, you can do that on
• 35:29
  your own. And so the question is, you
• 35:31
  know, at 21, what can we provide the market that others can't?
• 35:36
  And I think the very obvious answer is not everyone is
• 35:38
  tethered. Not everyone has been in Bitcoin
• 35:41
  13 years, not everyone has founded strike and not everyone
• 35:44
  is SoftBank. And so we plan to provide our
• 35:47
  goal has always be be the best way to participate in Bitcoin's
• 35:51
  story in the capital markets. We think we can bring both blue
• 35:54
  chip credibility and start up upside to the capital markets
• 35:58
  and we feel as if that was missing.
• 36:00
  You know, Coinbase we don't think is a Bitcoin company.
• 36:03
  We think they're a crypto company and strategy does not
• 36:06
  have Bitcoin native cash flow, does not build Bitcoin products
• 36:10
  and is relying on as far as I can tell.
• 36:12
  And again, I know I'm going to get all sorts of stuff from
• 36:15
  strategy shareholders and it's not my intention, but I'm just
• 36:18
  trying to build a delineation of there's, you know, being levered
• 36:21
  with expectations of financing it through common equity or
• 36:24
  through Bitcoin sales versus being able to build a business
• 36:27
  alongside it that can optimize in in being levered and being
• 36:31
  more aggressive in Bitcoin exposure.
• 36:33
  You know, that's where we want want to live.
• 36:37
  So again, kind of quite interesting in that regard
• 36:41
  because again, there's a little bit of a pivot, ladies and
• 36:45
  gentlemen. And the pivot is again, you
• 36:50
  know, these pure Bitcoin treasury companies, I'm not
• 36:53
  going to name any specific ones. You know, you have Jack Mahler,
• 36:57
  the CEO of 21 going on and saying, hey, listen, we actually
• 37:02
  want to build cash generate it's we actually want a, a cash
• 37:07
  generating business behind this. And of course he, he is
• 37:11
  competing with, you know, he is competing with strategy.
• 37:15
  Now let's kind of pull up bitcointreasuries.net and let's
• 37:20
  compare and contrast. Do I think 21 can catch up to
• 37:24
  Michael Saylor's 650,000? Bitcoin 21 currently has 43,000.
• 37:32
  That's a that's a long way up. But as Mahler's pointed out on
• 37:38
  the on on on his interview, he does have the backing of the
• 37:43
  most profitable company per employee on planet Earth, which
• 37:47
  is Tether. And SoftBank has some bags as
• 37:50
  well, right? It's interesting that he
• 37:52
  mentioned strike also. So you know, it's going to be
• 37:56
  interesting to me to see how much of these treasury companies
• 38:00
  survive this bear market if it is, if we are in a bear market.
• 38:05
  Because again, fundamentally at the end of the day, I'm not
• 38:08
  saying this is going to happen to, to MicroStrategy.
• 38:11
  I I highly doubt it, but the smaller ones, they fundamentally
• 38:16
  are levered Bitcoin place, right?
• 38:18
  They, they, you know, they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin
• 38:21
  essentially, right? Which is fantastic when you're
• 38:25
  in a bull market, but when you're in a bear market.
• 38:29
  Look at the price. Action of a lot of these Bitcoin
• 38:32
  treasury companies, the price action isn't exactly that great,
• 38:36
  is it Opti, right? It's, you know, if Bitcoin goes
• 38:38
  down 10 percent, 20%, they go down 40%, right.
• 38:42
  So you know how long until we see one of these blow up and I'm
• 38:47
  making a prediction right now on today's show during this bear
• 38:51
  market, if we are in one, I believe we are in the beginnings
• 38:56
  of it. Opti is still in the denial
• 38:57
  phase. I think we're going to see one
• 39:01
  of the treasury companies basically capitulate and I think
• 39:05
  it's actually going to be acquired.
• 39:10
  So, you know, let's see, you know how this plays out.
• 39:14
  But yeah, it's, it's, it's quite interesting to me, man.
• 39:17
  This is, this is uncharted territory that we're in Opti.
• 39:21
  And you know, it's, it's exciting, man.
• 39:24
  It's life is coming back to the markets, man, life is coming
• 39:28
  back to the markets. It's just not the life that we
• 39:32
  wanted. It's, it's, it's the downward,
• 39:34
  downward going to 0 type of price action.
• 39:38
  But it's, it's exciting times. But to me what what stood out
• 39:42
  there, Opti was the pivot, the pivot, you know, we like we want
• 39:46
  to build a, a, a, a cash generating business behind 21.
• 39:55
  We don't want it to be a pure Bitcoin treasury play.
• 39:59
  And as much as Jack Mahler's tried to, you know.
• 40:04
  He tried to to, to be nice. You know, at the end of the day,
• 40:07
  he is sailor's competitor. But as much as Jack Mahler's
• 40:10
  tried to be nice, at the end of the day, it was a shot across
• 40:14
  the bow. I don't know if you noticed
• 40:15
  that. Yeah, that's what I was going to
• 40:16
  say. Dude.
• 40:17
  It sounded like he literally was calling strategy a Ponzi bro.
• 40:20
  So that was like a shot across. He was a shot.
• 40:23
  He was. A shot across the bow, he's like
• 40:24
  look like, you know, and look, guys, MicroStrategy generates
• 40:29
  cash flow like it's not just a Bitcoin, it's not a pure Bitcoin
• 40:32
  treasury play. Now I think where Jack Mahler
• 40:33
  has the point is where he says that that MicroStrategy cash
• 40:41
  flow is not coming from the Bitcoin industry.
• 40:43
  But my response to to that would be does it really matter?
• 40:47
  Like cash flow is cash flow, right?
• 40:49
  So, you know, I could already kind of see what he's doing with
• 40:52
  21. I, I don't know this for
• 40:54
  certain, but it's, it seems like he's at least he's making the
• 41:04
  IT, it seems like he's making the case that strike is going to
• 41:07
  be acquired by 21. Like he kind of implied that.
• 41:12
  So and then of course it seems like he's also implying that,
• 41:16
  you know, there it it's not just a treasury company.
• 41:19
  They want to build this massive Bitcoin business behind 21,
• 41:25
  right. Let's see how it happens if they
• 41:28
  acquire strike, that's massive. That's huge, right?
• 41:32
  And that would obviously be an incredible play for Jack
• 41:35
  Mahler's because I I I don't think that it's it's extremely
• 41:42
  competitive with the large exchanges that aren't Bitcoin
• 41:46
  only because their volumes are so much higher, right.
• 41:51
  So yeah, I mean, I don't know what your take is on that Opti,
• 41:55
  but that was a shot across the bow.
• 41:56
  That's how I interpreted it, bro.
• 41:58
  But I mean, they're competitors, dude.
• 41:59
  Like obviously 21 wants to be #1 on that list, but can he catch
• 42:04
  up to 649,000 Bitcoin? I don't know, I don't know.
• 42:11
  I I don't think so to be honest. TBH, there's a few things you
• 42:16
  said. One I, I thought you were going
• 42:19
  to completely ignore that part, but it it literally sounded like
• 42:22
  he was calling it a Ponzi and and he's like, maybe I'm missing
• 42:25
  something. But like this is not what I want
• 42:28
  to do with my company so that that I think that.
• 42:31
  I think that was a bazooka across the bow bro.
• 42:35
  But yeah, no, I think and and we actually are starting to see the
• 42:39
  I, I don't want to call it FUD, but we are seeing these kind of
• 42:41
  timelines play out right now. I saw actually, I'm not, I'm not
• 42:45
  going to name them, but in the last couple of weeks, we did see
• 42:49
  some of these Bitcoin treasury companies move Bitcoin.
• 42:51
  Some of them were selling Bitcoin saying that like, yeah,
• 42:54
  we, you know, we needed to kind of balance our portfolio.
• 42:58
  There's another one this morning.
• 42:59
  Again, I'd like, we know all these people.
• 43:01
  So I'm not, I'm not really trying to like flood their bags
• 43:03
  here. They're saying, no, we didn't
• 43:04
  sell any Bitcoin. We're actually investing in
• 43:06
  other companies. So like you can see that people
• 43:08
  are starting to feel this pressure where if you do start
• 43:12
  seeing these Bitcoin treasury companies sell Bitcoin, it's
• 43:15
  going like I, I don't think we've seen how bad a bear market
• 43:20
  could be if these big Bitcoin treasury companies blow up,
• 43:23
  because that was the recent narrative right now.
• 43:26
  And I, I, part of me was thinking while you were going
• 43:30
  that like maybe the reason we didn't see this bull bull run
• 43:33
  like we thought it was going to be is because the bull run was
• 43:35
  in the Bitcoin treasury companies and we saw them all
• 43:38
  collapse. And so that part that kind of
• 43:42
  makes me think that maybe we won't see a crazy bear market in
• 43:45
  Bitcoin because all the action was in the Bitcoin treasury
• 43:49
  companies. Now that is with with that's
• 43:52
  with saying that not none of these companies are going to
• 43:54
  blow up. If they do blow up, that's
• 43:58
  probably going to be worse than FDX collapse here, because that
• 44:02
  was the new hot narrative and now we got Wall Street coming
• 44:05
  in. So I, I would say it, it's going
• 44:08
  to be brutal. If they do blow up, it's over
• 44:10
  for real for. Real like I would say like like
• 44:12
  I'm not even kidding. Like guys prepare mentally and
• 44:16
  financially for $30,000 Bitcoin. I'm not even kidding.
• 44:20
  I'm not even kidding. There is a cascading effect.
• 44:23
  You guys have to understand this.
• 44:24
  Like if, if these massive corporation this, you guys have
• 44:29
  to listen internalize this. This is Wall Street's first bear
• 44:34
  market in Bitcoin, OK, and Wall Street levered up to their
• 44:39
  effing eyeballs, right? And guess what happens when the
• 44:44
  price starts Nuki, right? A lot of these companies, you're
• 44:48
  already starting to see the very early innings of it.
• 44:50
  As I'll Opti very astutely pointed out.
• 44:53
  I wish I could name names, but I'm not going to.
• 44:56
  But you already see that some of these companies have been
• 45:01
  selling their Bitcoin positions. A lot of these treasury
• 45:05
  companies, they've been selling Bitcoin, right, which again,
• 45:09
  like was the point, right? So yeah, yeah, this is, I would
• 45:16
  say prepare mentally, psychologically, prepare for a
• 45:21
  $30,000 Bitcoin baby. Prepare the chat is so good
• 45:25
  right now. I love the chat.
• 45:27
  Prepare for it mentally because this is what Bitcoin does.
• 45:32
  But again, you can't someone, yeah, some people are naming the
• 45:36
  the companies in the chat. So they're they're doing our job
• 45:39
  for us. But yeah, I mean, prepare,
• 45:43
  prepare for it, prepare for it. Just prepare for it.
• 45:46
  We're asking the chat 403 of you guys.
• 45:50
  Nico scaring me. Just to be clear, that's Niko.
• 45:58
  This is not the opinions of simply Bitcoin that these are
• 46:01
  solely Niko's opinions here. So, so I'm, I'm just, I'm
• 46:06
  telling you like like like this is look guys, if you're new
• 46:10
  here, like this is how it works. Like you don't get these crazy
• 46:16
  returns without this type of volatility.
• 46:19
  Like it, it doesn't happen. So you have to always
• 46:22
  psychologically prepare. And I'm telling you this from
• 46:24
  experience because I've experienced at least 2 by now,
• 46:29
  80 to 70% draw downs. And I'm telling you.
• 46:33
  Each. Time I was acting like Opti
• 46:36
  right and and I'm telling you if you mentally and spiritually and
• 46:42
  physically prepare for them it's not going to surprise you
• 46:45
  because you're just going to be like OK this is just going this
• 46:47
  is just going lower it's fine it's OK but yeah this is you
• 46:52
  know this is interesting I'm having fun and the live stream
• 46:55
  is growing so it seems like people are enjoying my
• 46:58
  commentary and someone in the chat it's a feature not a bug
• 47:03
  yes 100 percent 100% I wanna do end this poll I asked 426 of you
• 47:10
  guys on YouTube I said is the bull run over 57% of you guys
• 47:16
  said no remember what I said about the mass.
• 47:19
  Wait, wait, wait. Say it again, say it again. 50%
• 47:21
  said no. 57% said the bull. Run the bull.
• 47:24
  Run. It's over.
• 47:25
  It's so. It's so over 20. 3% have said
• 47:29
  yes, it's over. So yeah, I mean, yeah, guys,
• 47:34
  have fun. Have fun, you know, You know, I,
• 47:38
  I, I will, I will. I will say this guys, the first
• 47:43
  pro bit, Sophie's going to ditch Nico and move in with like,
• 47:46
  that's so funny. Nico actually think if he's
• 47:48
  bearish, the market will do the opposite.
• 47:51
  I snatched him at 87 K dude, it's at 86 K.
• 47:54
  Smash it again, it's time to pump the bull run.
• 47:58
  Never ever happened. 4 year cycle still bound.
• 48:01
  Wow, chat's going nuts today. I love it.
• 48:04
  Yeah. Yeah, the chat's going wild and
• 48:05
  you guys are killing me. It's hilarious.
• 48:07
  I love it. I love it.
• 48:09
  No, but look, guys, this is an entertainment show.
• 48:12
  Simply Bitcoin always has been. But you know, I'm, I'm dead
• 48:15
  serious when I say like, like prepare, you know, prepare
• 48:20
  because this is this is the volatility of Bitcoin.
• 48:23
  This is the game, right? But again, you know, the, the,
• 48:26
  the you, you don't get this type of volatility.
• 48:31
  If you don't have this type of volatility, you don't get the
• 48:34
  upside, right? So you know, this is part of
• 48:37
  this is this is part of part of being a bitcoiner.
• 48:39
  So if your class of 2024, 2024-2025 welcome, you're
• 48:45
  officially paying your dues. Don't worry, four years from now
• 48:48
  you're going to feel fantastic. But this is part of it.
• 48:53
  This is, this is the run of the course, right?
• 48:55
  Someone in the chat says. This is why we DCA.
• 48:58
  You'll own nothing and be happy. You know this one.
• 49:01
  This one's better. Nico is the bear final boss.
• 49:04
  Oh man. But.
• 49:05
  Anyways, guys, if you guys are enjoying the show, you know what
• 49:07
  to do smash that like button consider subscribing to simply
• 49:10
  Bitcoin live. It's going to be an incredible
• 49:13
  show today. We still have tons of content to
• 49:16
  unpack for you guys. You guys are going to want to
• 49:18
  stay tuned. We're going to be right back
• 49:19
  just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
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• 52:41
  So before I I, I, I want to kind of continue the conversation
• 52:46
  because you guys were having a blast and yeah, so just kind of
• 52:52
  chime in. You know, some people are like
• 52:54
  Nico, how could you say this? Like what's going on?
• 52:58
  All I'm saying like, don't kill the messenger.
• 53:01
  Like I've just I've seen this before and I've experienced this
• 53:04
  before, right? And again, like, if I can go
• 53:09
  back to my past self, I would say, dude, you know, like
• 53:17
  prepare for this, you know, like have some cash flow, you know,
• 53:22
  prepare, right? And I, and I wish I would be
• 53:25
  able to tell that advice to my past self.
• 53:28
  So like this bear market, I'm just like, OK, you know, all
• 53:32
  right, here we go. This is, this is, this is OK,
• 53:36
  this is fine, this is fine. And, and then it's great because
• 53:39
  then you can be surprised and get proven wrong if the price
• 53:43
  rips, right. But if the price doesn't RIP,
• 53:47
  you know you're you're mentally and psychologically prepared for
• 53:49
  it, unlike Opti who's in the Nile phase, so.
• 53:53
  The denial is not just a river in Egypt.
• 53:57
  It is. It is my psychology.
• 53:59
  Right now. So anyways, I do want to share
• 54:03
  this article. Read this article from the Rage.
• 54:08
  Shout out Little Elites. But I think the full story was
• 54:11
  written by Anna, so shout out Anna and it's a a update on the
• 54:17
  samurai wallet case. The reason we cover the samurai
• 54:21
  wallet case here on simply Bitcoin is again, you can't have
• 54:24
  freedom without privacy. This is a basically a form to
• 54:29
  criminalize privacy, which is specifically protected by the
• 54:33
  5th amendment in the United States.
• 54:35
  I believe I'm not a lawyer, but it's my personal belief, which
• 54:38
  is no unreasonable searches and seizures.
• 54:41
  Essentially, the government is trying to make the case that
• 54:44
  because Samurai Wallet developed this open source software and a
• 54:49
  small percentage of people that were using the software were
• 54:54
  using it for criminal activities, they are the ones
• 54:58
  that are responsible for it. That's the case that the
• 55:01
  government is making. I, I just, I disagree with that.
• 55:06
  That's like saying that gun manufacturers are responsible
• 55:09
  for what people do with guns or car manufacturers are
• 55:12
  responsible for car accidents or plane manufacturers are
• 55:16
  responsible. You know, if, if something
• 55:18
  happens and if an accident happens, like it, it, it, it's
• 55:21
  the same thing like, like these are tools, like Samurai was a
• 55:26
  tool like so, you know, I don't think it helped that these guys
• 55:33
  were basically saying like they were, you know, they were saying
• 55:36
  a lot of things on Twitter that was used against them in the
• 55:40
  court case. So I don't think it helped that
• 55:43
  they were instigating a little bit.
• 55:46
  But again, this is what I've said said over the said over the
• 55:48
  last couple weeks. Like there's a reason that
• 55:51
  Satoshi went anonymous. If Satoshi didn't go anonymous,
• 55:55
  I guarantee you he would be in jail today.
• 55:58
  Like I I with like with with utmost certainty.
• 56:02
  I, I guarantee you he would be in jail if those coins ever move
• 56:07
  like it, it would, it would like personally, I think, oh man, I
• 56:12
  don't even want to talk about Satoshi, but I think that those,
• 56:15
  those coins are just inaccessible.
• 56:17
  That's my, my personal opinion. And there's a reason that
• 56:22
  Satoshi disappeared and there's a reason that we've never heard
• 56:26
  from him again. And this is literally one of the
• 56:30
  reasons, right. And this goes back to the
• 56:32
  sovereign individual. Like this is what's happening.
• 56:34
  Ladies and gentlemen, there is free market money that is now
• 56:38
  competing with the money that is the, the money that it comes
• 56:44
  from the state, right? And The thing is, the free
• 56:47
  market money is better than the state money, right?
• 56:51
  So do you think the state is going to give up the power of
• 56:55
  the money printer Like I'm, I'm, I'm just like simple, simple
• 57:00
  terms for you guys. Do I think the state's going to
• 57:03
  give up the power of the money printer?
• 57:05
  No, I do not. Do I think that Fiat currencies
• 57:08
  are going to disappear 10 years from now, 20 years from now?
• 57:11
  Nope, I don't think so. I think we're going to live in a
• 57:15
  world where you're going to have Fiat and you're going to have
• 57:17
  Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is going to provide a check and balance, so
• 57:23
  to speak, right? And I think that's really what's
• 57:28
  going to, you know, I, I, I think it's going to be a way for
• 57:31
  people to save and earn in money that can't be debased by their
• 57:36
  governments. And, and you want to know why
• 57:37
  the European Union is scrambling so hard to get on the CBDC train
• 57:43
  and the digital ID train is because they're trying to keep
• 57:46
  you in that effing system. I actually tweeted this out
• 57:49
  yesterday. What problems do CBD, CS and
• 57:53
  digital IDs solve? Let me know, please let me know
• 57:57
  in the chat. What problems do digital IDs and
• 57:59
  CBDC solve? So anyways, going back to the
• 58:03
  topic at hand, you want to know why they're making example out
• 58:07
  of the samurai wallet developers?
• 58:10
  This is why they're making an example out of them because I'm
• 58:18
  going to actually even pull this up so you guys could like see
• 58:23
  that I'm not even a a mind reader or a fortune teller.
• 58:26
  This is a a passage from the Sovereign Individual Must Read
• 58:30
  book if you're a Bitcoiner lacking their accustomed scope
• 58:33
  to tax and inflate. When I talk about tax, I'm not
• 58:36
  talking about income tax. I'm talking about the inflation
• 58:39
  tax. Governments, even in
• 58:42
  traditionally civil countries, will turn nasty.
• 58:45
  Businesses that offer services that facilitate the realization
• 58:50
  of autonomy by individuals will be subject to infiltration,
• 58:55
  sabotage, and disruption. Remember what happened last year
• 59:00
  CZ you you call it what it is crypto casino in the world,
• 59:05
  right, But it's the large it's the largest exchange by volume
• 59:07
  in the world, right? Maybe Coinbase is is overtaking
• 59:11
  them, but it's one of the largest CZ was was was tried in
• 59:16
  the United States. Arthur Hayes was tried in the
• 59:19
  United in the United States and both of them got a pardon by the
• 59:23
  Trump administration. Both those cases, in my opinion,
• 59:27
  were politically motivated. Why were they politically
• 59:30
  motivated? Because when banks do the same
• 59:33
  effing thing, they get a fine. When our industry gets accused
• 59:41
  of money laundering and all of that stuff, which again, it's
• 59:44
  illegal, it's bad. But when our industry does it,
• 59:48
  they put us in a box. So it's a 2 tier justice system
• 59:53
  as long as you're playing within the Fiat system, that's a fine
• 59:57
  for you. If you're playing outside of the
• 1:00:00
  Fiat system. If you're.
• 1:00:04
  Playing outside of the Fiat system, sorry about that.
• 1:00:09
  It's not a fine you got, you got.
• 1:00:13
  Put in a box and that's what it comes down.
• 1:00:15
  To So anyways, here's the latest William Hill sentenced to four
• 1:00:20
  years in prison. Samurai Wallet developer
• 1:00:26
  William. Logan Hill has been sentenced to
• 1:00:28
  40. Eight months in prison, three
• 1:00:31
  years on probation and a $250,000 fine in New York
• 1:00:37
  earlier this month, his. Co founder was sentenced to.
• 1:00:40
  Five years behind bars and the same fine.
• 1:00:43
  Prosecutors had requested the maximum possible sentence for
• 1:00:47
  Hill. Why?
• 1:00:49
  They're trying to make an example out of him so that
• 1:00:52
  anyone, if you're an open source developer, you are terrified to
• 1:00:59
  make privacy enabling tools. That's what it it does about it
• 1:01:04
  is not about the money. It's not about it.
• 1:01:10
  So anyways. William Hill had to pause during
• 1:01:13
  his speech in front of the judge to hold tears, his family
• 1:01:16
  sobbing in 2nd row. I broke the law and I caused
• 1:01:19
  significant harm. Hill said.
• 1:01:20
  He added that he could see now his pride had led him astray,
• 1:01:24
  and although he believed himself to be guided by commitment to
• 1:01:27
  privacy and freedom, it was more his hubris that dictated his
• 1:01:31
  actions. I've learned a painful but
• 1:01:34
  important lesson from this experience.
• 1:01:38
  Oh, this is hilarious. It's not it's not a hilarious
• 1:01:43
  statement, but it kind of plays into, you know, the meme on on I
• 1:01:48
  I'm not even going to get to that, but yeah, I mean, you
• 1:01:52
  know, and of course he has to say this guys, like he has to
• 1:01:55
  say this. He has to say that, you know he
• 1:01:59
  has to say that, you know he. Has to say this.
• 1:02:06
  There's there's no. Other way, right?
• 1:02:08
  So 48 months in prison, three years on probation, 250,000.
• 1:02:12
  If he said anything else during his sentencing, they would have
• 1:02:17
  given him more time, right? So in our opinion, like we're
• 1:02:22
  not developers, we don't, you know, we're not involved in any
• 1:02:26
  of that. But we do support privacy.
• 1:02:29
  I think privacy is a fundamental human right.
• 1:02:32
  And there's clearly A2 tier system and I was watching clips
• 1:02:38
  from The Big Short yesterday and you know what happened in 2008
• 1:02:43
  and 2009 was a crime and no one paid the consequences for it.
• 1:02:48
  Why? Because it's within the banking
• 1:02:49
  system. It's within the system.
• 1:02:51
  So fines, people get fired, people get laid off, but because
• 1:02:59
  it's outside of the. System they get treated.
• 1:03:01
  Differently Opti yeah, obviously super unfortunate to.
• 1:03:07
  See, I don't think anyone's really surprised considering I,
• 1:03:12
  I, I, I try not to remember their names for I know they
• 1:03:16
  were, you know, all about privacy.
• 1:03:17
  But I'm not really surprised that this was kind of his
• 1:03:22
  charge, considering what we saw with the other dev.
• 1:03:24
  Again, I try not to say their names even though we already
• 1:03:28
  said it, but not really. Again, it's like, yeah.
• 1:03:35
  It is a little surprising that he got a little less.
• 1:03:38
  Than his, you know, Co worker or partner.
• 1:03:42
  I, I did find that a little bit surprising.
• 1:03:44
  Maybe it was because of, you know, the way that he kind of
• 1:03:48
  bent the knee in, in, in church in in the court.
• 1:03:53
  OK. I disagree, OK, I think, I think
• 1:03:58
  he's. I think.
• 1:03:59
  He's, I think he. He had to.
• 1:04:00
  Say what he had. Yeah.
• 1:04:02
  That's, that's basically what I mean.
• 1:04:03
  Like I think that. Might have got him a little
• 1:04:06
  lesser charge anyways. What I've been kind of saying
• 1:04:09
  though, and I I think I'm more convinced of this than.
• 1:04:12
  Ever. And I I don't.
• 1:04:13
  Think Niko's really been on the show when I've been saying it.
• 1:04:15
  So this might be a hot take for Niko.
• 1:04:17
  We'll we'll get Niko's response to this.
• 1:04:20
  But it is very interesting that at the same time that we're
• 1:04:23
  seeing Wall Street, you know, nation states start to embrace
• 1:04:27
  Bitcoin. Maybe they're, you know, messing
• 1:04:29
  with the Bitcoin price to essentially stack some Bitcoin.
• 1:04:34
  And there is this narrative about the Bitcoin superpower of
• 1:04:37
  the world. At the same time, we're seeing
• 1:04:40
  developers be attacked for privacy.
• 1:04:42
  And it's not a really good precedent.
• 1:04:43
  It doesn't make me feel real good.
• 1:04:45
  And it does seem like Wall Street or the nation states, the
• 1:04:49
  regulators, however you want, are trying to neuter the more
• 1:04:52
  radical edges of Bitcoin. And they, it seems like they
• 1:04:56
  want to continue like the number go up properties of Bitcoin
• 1:05:02
  without everything else that comes with it.
• 1:05:05
  And maybe this is part of the process of trying to like clean
• 1:05:08
  up the image of Bitcoin. And I think what is the craziest
• 1:05:13
  part about this is that when you kind of look into and she's like
• 1:05:18
  the Lola lead, she's been doing a really good job.
• 1:05:20
  I can't actually read her tweet but go to her Twitter and she
• 1:05:22
  did a really good tweet kind of comparing Toyota to the samurai
• 1:05:28
  wallet. And like when you think of how
• 1:05:31
  they are spinning this and saying hey.
• 1:05:35
  Because you made. Some software wallet that is
• 1:05:38
  privacy focused like you're responsible for what everyone
• 1:05:41
  does on it. Though I know part of their
• 1:05:43
  tweets do make it, I think a little more of a muddy issue.
• 1:05:48
  It is just crazy what we're seeing right now.
• 1:05:50
  And it really makes me feel like a lot of people aren't going to
• 1:05:54
  continue to create softwares that do usher in more freedom
• 1:05:59
  and more privacy for, for all of us.
• 1:06:01
  And I think that's super unfortunate.
• 1:06:04
  So it, it's not really good precedent that we're seeing.
• 1:06:07
  And it it is, it is like at the same time that the price just
• 1:06:11
  kind of dumping. And I don't mean to laugh here.
• 1:06:13
  Because it's a very serious issue, but.
• 1:06:16
  We, we are seeing some, some attack vectors that Bitcoiners
• 1:06:20
  have been talking about for a long time and, and they're
• 1:06:22
  happening right now while everyone's been distracted about
• 1:06:25
  running what node to run. We are seeing some very, you
• 1:06:29
  know, very legitimate attacks coming, whether it's from Wall
• 1:06:31
  Street, whether it's on the privacy front.
• 1:06:34
  So maybe, maybe this year was the year that we deserved
• 1:06:38
  overall, considering that we all were kind of losing the plot
• 1:06:42
  throughout the year and we were kind of distracted about what's
• 1:06:45
  going on. So yeah, that's that's.
• 1:06:48
  Probably my take on this whole thing.
• 1:06:50
  Absolutely. All right, everybody, we're
• 1:06:52
  gonna be. Right back just a bit.
• 1:06:53
  We're gonna. We're.
• 1:06:54
  Gonna feel the vibes during the culture.
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  That's what the culture is all about.
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  We're gonna be right back just a bit.
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• 1:09:05
  Yeah, so vibe check everyone in. The chat.
• 1:09:07
  Let me know what you think. Before before, we just do a
• 1:09:10
  general, you know, shoot the shit here, 'cause it is a
• 1:09:13
  therapy session. Let me let.
• 1:09:15
  Me. Let me.
• 1:09:16
  Check the Bitcoin price just so we can 86,444 eighty.
• 1:09:22
  Six. Well, I'm saying 86 too, but.
• 1:09:25
  Perfect all right general vibe check here I I.
• 1:09:28
  Did. Kind of wanna I did wanna kind
• 1:09:30
  of talk about this. I'm not I'm not going to read it
• 1:09:32
  because it is a little long. So I'll, I'll just drop in the
• 1:09:36
  chat for you guys. I I think it's a good reason.
• 1:09:39
  I think it's a a a balance read here and it's the guy that did
• 1:09:44
  the Bitcoin IPO moment. He just dropped this the other
• 1:09:47
  day, which is the light at the end of the turbulence too,
• 1:09:52
  'cause he, he did another one and it maybe I'm coping as I've
• 1:09:57
  been telling you, man, I'm probably coping this whole, the
• 1:10:00
  whole show, I'm in denial. I'm, I'm looking at what we're
• 1:10:02
  doing and I'm like, it can't be over.
• 1:10:05
  You know, that's my whole thought.
• 1:10:06
  It just, it just can't be over. But when I read this article, it
• 1:10:09
  didn't make a lot of sense. And the TLDR for it is
• 1:10:12
  essentially, you know, since we saw that Bitcoin IPO moment, he
• 1:10:17
  thinks that the distribution kind of that we're seeing from
• 1:10:20
  OG whales. And I don't know if you guys saw
• 1:10:21
  this morning, but another OG whale from 2011 sold 11,000
• 1:10:26
  coins on Kraken, a total of like 1.30.
• 1:10:30
  No. So he sold a total of 11,000 I
• 1:10:33
  believe. And he sold another like 230
• 1:10:36
  million this morning and it's like a total of 1.3 billion the
• 1:10:40
  last month. So the IPO meme, I think has
• 1:10:44
  holds a lot of water and, and you know, I was talking with
• 1:10:47
  Luke about this article and he's like, I, I don't really like the
• 1:10:49
  guy, like he just doesn't get the right vibes from him.
• 1:10:52
  But when I was reading this article, essentially again, he's
• 1:10:55
  kind of doubling down on this idea that 2026 we're going to
• 1:10:59
  see some tailwinds. And that what we're seeing right
• 1:11:02
  now, you know, the mass kind of hysteria, the, the fear and
• 1:11:06
  greed index being so low. Actually we're on this run right
• 1:11:09
  now where the fear and greed index hasn't been this negative
• 1:11:13
  for this long ever. And they all of this is just.
• 1:11:16
  It's making me feel. That.
• 1:11:18
  Even though even though the the. Poll in the chat, you guys are
• 1:11:21
  all think the bull run isn't over.
• 1:11:22
  So I'm, I might have to clarify on that.
• 1:11:25
  I might have to, I might have to take back what I'm going to say,
• 1:11:28
  but I, I am kind of leaning towards the macro cycles that
• 1:11:32
  we're seeing right now. Hold on.
• 1:11:36
  Excuse me guys, the macro cycles.
• 1:11:38
  That we're seeing right now and the.
• 1:11:40
  Kind of liquidity drying up and what seems to be the money
• 1:11:44
  printer cycle turning on in like next month for the US well,
• 1:11:49
  rather Q TS dying next month or rather than like a week or two
• 1:11:53
  and then we're starting to see the money printers go globally
• 1:11:56
  right now or at least starting to warm up.
• 1:11:58
  So if we do see something similar and we start to see the
• 1:12:02
  money printers get turned on again, then you know, 2026 could
• 1:12:06
  really surprises. And especially since no one knew
• 1:12:08
  what was going on in 2025. I wouldn't be that surprised if
• 1:12:13
  2026 we we see something crazy that we've never seen before.
• 1:12:17
  Again. You know how many new things did
• 1:12:19
  we see this cycle all time high before the having no parabolic
• 1:12:27
  year We see OG whales. Selling a lot of coin.
• 1:12:32
  Hitting the exchange, wouldn't it just be so fitting that we
• 1:12:36
  see some crazy price action in 2026?
• 1:12:39
  We're going down that I'm that's where I'm going.
• 1:12:42
  So let me. Let me let me see what the chat
• 1:12:45
  what? The.
• 1:12:45
  Chat's saying we are all coping opti it's going up forever.
• 1:12:49
  Bear market started the beginning of February.
• 1:12:52
  I'm buying 2 * a week. Bitcoin therapy is a.
• 1:12:57
  Thing really. Oh man, Yeah.
• 1:13:02
  So I don't know, I think we're all just coping, man.
• 1:13:06
  I. I who?
• 1:13:07
  No one knows what this is. I think this is a shake out.
• 1:13:09
  When Bitcoin goes back over 100 KA lot will sell and regret it
• 1:13:12
  and when it goes up to 150 K that might be the case.
• 1:13:16
  That might be the MSDR is going parabolic to the.
• 1:13:21
  Downside Yeah, you guys are funny.
• 1:13:25
  Oh man. Well, I don't know if our
• 1:13:28
  therapy worked today, Nico. Man, I mean, I think you're, I
• 1:13:31
  think I'm playing bad. Cop, you're playing good cop as
• 1:13:35
  always. But yeah, I mean.
• 1:13:37
  Guys, I'm playing. Bullish cop, you're playing
• 1:13:39
  bearish cop. Listen.
• 1:13:41
  Nothing's changed. Listen guys, you you only have.
• 1:13:43
  One, you only have one life. Enjoy the ride.
• 1:13:46
  Enjoy the Bitcoin roller coaster.
• 1:13:48
  It's time like these that you'll remember, that you'll cherish
• 1:13:52
  many years from now, four years from now, five years from now, a
• 1:13:55
  decade from now, you'll be laughing your ass off.
• 1:13:57
  You'll be like, dude, remember when Bitcoin fell to 86,000?
• 1:14:01
  I remember, and I'm telling you this guys, I remember riding
• 1:14:05
  this up to 20K in 2017 and then going down to 3500.
• 1:14:09
  I was like, dude, it's over. It's done.
• 1:14:11
  It's like this is never going to happen.
• 1:14:13
  It's going to recover. Whatever.
• 1:14:14
  Ripped 3500 to 69,000 then from 69,000 to 16,000 Felt terrible.
• 1:14:24
  And then 16. 1000 to 126 a 126,000.
• 1:14:29
  So, you know, let's see where the bottom ends up.
• 1:14:32
  If this is a bear market, I hope that Lynn is right.
• 1:14:36
  I hope that sailors right. I hope that this cycle's
• 1:14:38
  fundamentally different because they are right.
• 1:14:41
  Like the halvings play less and less and less in effect.
• 1:14:45
  But The thing is, the four year cycle is a thing until it gets
• 1:14:50
  unproven. So until we're in January of
• 1:14:55
  2026 and the price is above 100K, then I'll say, hey, the
• 1:14:59
  four year cycle's over. It's done.
• 1:15:01
  We're in uncharted territory and I will be just as excited as my
• 1:15:05
  brother here, Optimus Fields. But until then, the four year
• 1:15:10
  cycle's intact from from my perspective.
• 1:15:13
  So yeah, the chat is killing me today.
• 1:15:19
  Do you want me to lie to you guys like I'm telling you my
• 1:15:21
  perspective? Anyways, guys, go outside, touch
• 1:15:24
  some grass, take advantage of the cheap sats.
• 1:15:27
  Right now sats are on a discount.
• 1:15:29
  Buy some Bitcoin, not financial advice, and we'll see you guys
• 1:15:34
  tomorrow for a brand new episode of Simply Bitcoin Live.
• 1:15:38
  Today's episode was brought to you by Bitcoin Well dot.
• 1:15:41
  Com A Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:15:45
  independence.