Latest / The Fourcast / Will Starmer sack Reeves or will she survive as Chancellor?

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Will Starmer sack Reeves or will she survive as Chancellor? · The Fourcast

0:00
It's extraordinary how much trouble they've got themselves
0:04
into in this period of time. Winter fuel around what was
0:08
looking at, and I think even Rachel herself might probably
0:11
admit this now. No, it was a tactical disaster.
0:14
The single biggest disaster? Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer,
0:17
can they be prized apart? Can he sack her if the spending
0:21
review goes? Badly.
0:22
Look, he can sack her. Really sack her.
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I don't think he will. Looking at Keir Starmer in a
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political setting, he is utterly ruthless.
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So will he sack Rachel Reeves? I think he's still quite loyal
0:36
to her, but could he? Yes.
0:44
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:46
Does Labour have a week to save its government?
0:48
Does Rachel Reeves have a week to save her job?
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Ahead of next Wednesday's Make or Break spending review, The
0:54
Chance lays out and about splashing the cash on
0:56
infrastructure projects in reform leaning areas, funnily
1:01
enough. So why has it come to this?
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Why does it seem to have gone wrong for Keir Starmer and his
1:06
new government surprisingly quickly?
1:08
Well, one person who might have a clue is Anushka Astana, about
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to be Channel 4 News US editor but finishing off a 20 year
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stint at Westminster with an update to her book chronicling
1:18
the inside story of Starmer's Labour taken as read out this
1:22
week. The contrast with the early
1:24
months of the last Labour government is stark.
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But given the dire economic circumstances, could Tony Blair
1:29
and Gordon Brown have done any better?
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Well, one man who was there and is still here is the political
1:34
commentator Andrew Rawnsley. He joins us as well.
1:37
Welcome to you both, Anushka. Today, big numbers splashed
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about. Yeah, for buses, trams and all
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sorts of things, not in London, but outside London.
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And will that kind of stuff make a difference at all?
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Well, they're really hoping that this will be the narrative of
1:52
next week and they are next week of next week when the spending
1:55
review gets published. They want the amount that they
1:58
are spending on capital to be the thing that we all focus on.
2:01
They are very frustrated inside the Treasury because they keep
2:04
getting attacked for refusing to change their fiscal rules, which
2:08
basically means that they need to balance day-to-day spending.
2:12
And they're frustrated because they said last year we tweaked
2:15
our fiscal rules and we allowed ourselves to spend loads of
2:18
money on capital all over the country and we're not getting
2:21
any credit for it. And so the race has started
2:23
today to try and make that the narrative of the next week.
2:27
The problem they've got is that the decisions facing Rachel
2:29
Reeves when it comes to the spending review, how much she
2:33
spends on the NHS, whether and how quickly they're going to
2:36
reach 3% on defence and what it means for all the other
2:39
departments are. It's not where they use
2:43
normally, but I would say ghastly.
2:45
Ghastly. Ghastly because it just isn't
2:47
enough. Whatever you do, it's really
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difficult. I've been looking at the figures
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this morning, you know, is she going to spend 3.4% increased on
2:55
the NHS every year? To do that would be only
2:59
sticking with the average so far.
3:01
To do it would mean real terms cuts for all other departments.
3:04
If you add in going to 3% on defence, then transport crime,
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you know everything to do with local government is going to be
3:15
slashed or or going to be squeezed.
3:18
They wouldn't like the word slashed.
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So when they wouldn't and they say it's not austerity, it.
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Is of course, it's because the overall numbers going up, yeah.
3:25
But whether you call it slashed or salami, sliced or just
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chopped or amputated, I mean, it's it's awful.
3:30
Yeah. So I want.
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So, given the fact that the numbers are so dire, what any
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good leader needs is a really good story to tell.
3:38
Do they have a story to tell? Well, some of them do.
3:41
I mean it's become a sort of consensus I think in our
3:44
profession as journalists and among a lot of Labour MPs.
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What's the story? What's Starmer really stand for?
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What is Starmerism? In fact, there are things you
3:53
can say they're doing, you know, whether you agree with them or
3:56
not. They do have a story on the the
3:59
big bill on employment rights, which is ending hire and refire
4:04
and banning 0 contracts. And he's probably the biggest in
4:08
advance for employment rights in a generation.
4:10
They've hiked the minimum wage by more than they needed to and
4:14
a big hike, particularly for younger workers.
4:17
But are they very good at telling a story?
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I would agree with those who say no, they're not particularly.
4:23
And that's one of the big contrasts with the New Labour is
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because whatever you thought of Tony Blair and in fact Gordon
4:29
Brown in a rather more prudence for a purpose.
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So the way they were actually very good at conveying the big
4:36
picture story and I think both the Prime Minister and the
4:40
Chancellor who are the principal storytellers or supposed to be
4:43
anyway of the government, neither of them are particularly
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good at portraying of issue, but.
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But why would so just remind us why Blair and Brown were better
4:50
telling stories is they had more adjectives and adverbs in their
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coffers? Some of it's just that it also
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to be absolutely fair to this government, you always got to
4:59
put it in context. They did the one.
5:02
It is absolutely true. They inherited a pretty awful
5:06
situation. I mean, compared with when new
5:08
they became to power in 1997, you know, Tony Blair and Gordon
5:12
Brown inherited a growing economy.
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The Tories have got thrown out nevertheless for other reasons,
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but and a growing economy, a pretty stable economy and a much
5:22
lower national debt than we've got now.
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And also say compared with 2010, Gordon Brown bequeathed public
5:29
services in the general public realm in a much better condition
5:33
to David Cameron than they've received from the Conservatives.
5:37
But they found quite quickly the current government that blaming
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the last lot only gets you so far and the the public's
5:45
patience, unreasonably or not, is already running.
5:48
Out because the public already knew that the old lot were to
5:50
blame for the situation we were in.
5:52
They looked at 2010 when they shouldn't have looked at 2010
5:55
because in 2010 we had a hung parliament.
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The country wasn't sure whether or not they blame Labour.
6:01
It's very clear if you look at 2024 that the Conservatives have
6:04
been blamed. And what's extraordinary is if
6:06
you look at the polling now, people and Keir Starmer and
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Rachel Reeves more than the last one.
6:11
Which is astonishing. Already, and just on the telling
6:13
of a story, I'm not entirely convinced that it's about a
6:17
communication thing here. I think it's about the fact that
6:20
the more I've delved into Keir Starmer, the more I'm convinced
6:24
that he isn't an ideological politician, he is a pragmatic
6:28
politician. But that.
6:29
Doesn't necessarily mean that you can't tell a story well.
6:31
It does mean that it's not easy to find out what he believes in,
6:35
because what he believes in is doing the pragmatic thing at the
6:39
right moment. In some ways, a bit like Rishi
6:42
Sunak perhaps I see more parallels with with them.
6:44
What I mean is if when he was in opposition, Keir Starmer was
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asked by Peter Hyman, who was an advisor to him, what do you
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stand for? What's your vision?
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And Keir Starmer says in response.
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I don't have AI, don't like that word vision.
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It's vague. I just don't like it.
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That's how they ended up with the missions, because he
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thought, OK, let's have concrete things that we're aiming towards
7:06
that are our missions rather than Keir Starmer's vision.
7:09
And the reality is in order to win elections, which is
7:13
basically been the thing he's been very good at, he won the
7:15
2020 leadership. He then won the 2024 general
7:19
election. Keir Starmer has done what he
7:21
believes he has to do to win over that electorate.
7:24
And in in 2020, it was to tell them, I support Jeremy Corbyn,
7:27
I'm Jeremy Corbyn in a suit, I'm really left wing, I believe in
7:31
nationalizations across the board and so on.
7:34
And in 2024, it was to tell them, even though they knew that
7:38
the economic situation was pretty bad, although it was
7:40
perhaps worse than they thought it was, to tell them we're going
7:43
to be able to do it probably without raising taxes.
7:46
So people don't know and they're trying to understand, who are
7:48
you? And is the other problem for
7:51
Stam at the moment is it we don't really care that much what
7:53
stories the Tories have got because they really haven't got
7:56
a clue what their story is. They're still trying to work
7:57
that out and they're licking their wounds.
7:59
They're so busy doing that they can't focus on the other.
8:01
But there is one bloke who has got a story and that's Nigel
8:04
Farage and they he seems to be the person they're most worried
8:06
about, hence the announcements today.
8:08
We don't know what he believes. It yes, at at the moment they
8:12
are obviously they're quite right to be.
8:14
Well, it's a good question because I mean you said right at
8:17
the beginning, is this the the make or break or beginning or
8:20
end of this government time purposes, I mean?
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For broadcasting, keep those purposes so.
8:26
Now, now we've got. To the discussion here.
8:28
We can do a few caveats. We can go.
8:30
New we can do new. And conditions, I mean, there
8:32
are still potentially more than four years.
8:34
The next election doesn't legally have to happen until
8:37
August 2029, by which time Donald Trump may or may not.
8:41
If the Constitution applies, he will no longer be the US
8:44
president. Russia could have made peace
8:46
with Ukraine. Looks unlikely, but they could
8:48
have done and then reinvaded them by, yeah, at this point
8:52
that far ahead. So I wouldn't hang my hat too
8:54
much, too much on what opinion polls are saying.
8:57
But it's certainly true that Labour seems to have come to a
9:00
strategic decision, rightly or wrongly, that they want Farage
9:04
to be their main opponent. So extraordinarily, in some
9:07
ways, you've got the Prime Minister talking down the Tories
9:11
saying they're brain dead, They're heading for a a
9:13
Bolivian. And now Farage is the it's me
9:17
versus Farage. I think this is based on a
9:19
calculation A, it helps squeezed dissolutioned progressive voters
9:24
back into the Labour column ultimately, because whatever
9:26
they think of Starmer, they prefer to have him in #10 than
9:30
to have Farage there. I think it's also to sort of
9:33
instill a bit of fear in the hope that that leads to unity in
9:37
Labour's own ranks. And also to be fair, I mean, the
9:41
day after he became Prime Minister, I think Starmer made a
9:44
speech saying this is a challenge of our time, Radical
9:48
right wing populism. And if you look at Christ, is
9:50
there a fair West of Europe like Afd, Le Pen, all sorts of
9:53
places? Why should Britain be be immune?
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But if but if taking on Nigel Farage means taking on some of
10:00
his language, right. So the Island of Strangers, all
10:02
that stuff that we had a couple of weeks ago, is that a danger?
10:05
Well, that's an interesting one because that's a actually, if
10:08
you read the actual speech, he goes out of his way talking
10:11
about how, you know, migration has enriched this country in all
10:15
sorts of ways. But of course, that's the bit
10:18
everybody landed on. And no wonder, because it was an
10:21
extraordinary thing for a Labour Prime Minister to say, I would
10:25
say not a wise thing. I mean, he doubled down on it
10:28
for the 48 hours afterwards, but he's not repeated it's.
10:31
Let's be absolutely clear, right?
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First of all, they did not expect people to say it had
10:35
echoes of Enoch Powell, Which? I think did they really not
10:39
know? Quite naive because it's a very
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famous speech. I believe that they didn't know
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or that they didn't want that to be the thing that came out of
10:48
it. I also believe that they put it
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in deliberately because they were worried about the story not
10:53
remaining in the news cycle for a number of days, even if it.
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Remains there for the wrong reasons.
10:58
I mean, people told me explicitly it's there, it's
11:01
going to stay there. That's why they did it.
11:03
But I think they are upset or certainly a lot of people in
11:06
Downing Street are upset about the idea.
11:08
And, and I'll tell you what, Labour MPs, including many who
11:11
are from ethnic minorities, are distraught about it.
11:14
Not just upset, distraught about it.
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And, and I get it, you know, of course there was lots else in
11:19
that speech. But obviously you understand
11:21
what you're doing in those situations.
11:23
Now what what Labour MPs say to me is, yeah, but we can't have a
11:27
reformed government next time. So we have to do what we can to
11:30
stop that. And obviously we need to talk
11:32
about immigration. That doesn't mean they're happy
11:34
with the language, but we need to talk and they're obviously
11:36
trying to find their way on that.
11:38
But he's. Defined the battlefield.
11:39
Nigel Farage on that issue is to find the battlefield for the
11:42
Labour Party. And is that a wise thing to?
11:43
I think the biggest risk here is, you know, obviously there is
11:47
a problem in terms of the numbers on immigration.
11:49
Obviously you need to reduce them.
11:50
But if you look at polls, 85% of people say anything above
11:55
100,000 people. Net migration is unacceptable.
11:58
At the moment we're at over 400,000 with it having halved.
12:02
I think they could end up as a hostage to fortune and also Keir
12:06
Starmer is talking up an issue and therefore talking.
12:09
Up it saying this is always the problem.
12:11
I mean, and it's been a problem for years.
12:13
Actually it was a problem with the Conservative leaders as
12:15
well. Sealing vote, dealing with
12:17
somebody like Nigel Farage, you know, if you don't address him
12:20
on his his natural territory, he says, ah, they won't talk about
12:24
it. Classic establishment elitist
12:26
uni party plot. And then if you do try and go
12:29
head to head with him, he says, oh, look, I'm setting the agenda
12:33
now, I'm winning. And so do your critics within
12:35
your own. But I mean, it's a really,
12:36
really difficult one. Just on, just on immigration and
12:39
no one talking about it. As you said, I've been doing
12:42
this for 20 years. As far as I can tell, everyone
12:45
has talked about immigration endlessly over that entire 20
12:48
years. I look back at a Tony Blair
12:50
speech, which was like, people say we can't talk about this.
12:52
We can. It's, it's always been a thing.
12:54
But just on Farage, can I just talk about him just for a
12:56
minute? Because he has things that Keir
13:00
Starmer struggles with somewhat, which is really appealing to
13:03
voters. One of them is authenticity and
13:07
you totally, totally know what he believes.
13:11
And that is the thing they are grappling to try and achieve
13:15
inside Downing St. and struggling with and their gamble
13:17
is we don't. In the end what people will care
13:20
about is that we deliver for them.
13:22
And that's why you began with the capital spending on roads.
13:24
That's the thinking there. They're thinking if we can make
13:27
the NHS better then people will just one thing, then people will
13:32
go for us. But on just on Nigel Farage, I
13:34
interviewed him for the book and I just think there are some
13:36
things which they should be really worried.
13:37
Worried about which makes it different to what?
13:40
Farage should be worried about or Labour.
13:41
Labour should be worried, but people who do not want Nigel
13:44
Farage to be the next Prime Minister should be worried about
13:46
which was that when I spoke to him he was thinking so
13:50
strategically and organizationally about how you
13:53
crack our first past the post system.
13:56
UKIP did very well in local and European elections in 2013 and
14:00
14 and then only got 1 MP. Reform have reached a completely
14:05
different tipping point. They got 32% of the to vote in
14:08
local elections and translated that into 40 plus percent of
14:11
seats. And when I asked Nigel Farage
14:14
what he was thinking about, this was before any of this, he was
14:17
looking back to Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s and he was saying, I'm
14:21
really interested in what he did organizationally to get the Lib
14:25
Dems to start to win more seats in our system.
14:28
Well, that's why he wants count. I mean, he's never been very
14:30
interested in local government previously, but that's really,
14:33
he's actually in some ways mirroring himself with a very
14:37
different an ideology obviously on the Lib Dems.
14:40
So if you build up a counsellor base that builds up your
14:43
activist base, then you use them as a beachhead into Parliament.
14:48
But we shouldn't get too carried away.
14:49
I'm a bit cautious by getting too carried away with for artism
14:53
because they're we don't know quite what it is.
14:55
But there is a ceiling to his support because there are people
14:59
and there are some people who say, although we appear to live
15:02
in this multi party politics, say actually, and I think this
15:05
is part of Labour's long term calculation will be a very
15:08
binary election. If Labour has its way, it'll be
15:10
do you want Starmer? If you don't, you better vote
15:13
tactically for Labour where it's going to make a difference.
15:16
Or do you want Farage or maybe Farage Coalition, right.
15:20
You really? Want Marine Le Pen to be?
15:22
I mean, it has, it's sort of worked.
15:23
It even worked in his disastrous election.
15:26
The risk the disastrous election Macro most recently called that.
15:30
Actually, if you say to people that's the alternative, you may
15:32
not like me, but they're a lot worse, you better vote the.
15:34
Risk. The risk though, and This is why
15:36
I asked you whether it was reckless, is that you talk down
15:38
the Conservatives. The Conservatives are killed off
15:41
in the idea that you're putting forward.
15:44
So you create reform as the alternative, whilst there is for
15:49
Labour an opportunity in the fact that the right is split and
15:52
if the Conservatives remain with some strength, then reform and
15:57
Conservatives. I don't think they are going to,
15:59
I don't think they are going to obliterate the Tories in the
16:01
end. But this gets back to the to the
16:05
original, to the starting point of this conversation is, you
16:07
know, where does their soul reside?
16:09
So I can't think, I can't remember a single government
16:12
that has managed to upset, you know, poor people and rich
16:15
people. I don't know if that's a recent
16:17
thing. I mean, if there is such a
16:18
thing. But it's amazing how they've
16:19
upset people with tons of money who they then try to win back.
16:22
You know, we want rich people to invest in Britain, but we just,
16:25
you know, encourage so many of them to to go to Italy or to the
16:29
United States or elsewhere. And then the winter fuel
16:31
allowance as well. I mean, this is a a disastrous
16:33
bit of even though it makes economic sense, there's an
16:36
argument for. It well the winter fuel
16:38
allowance what was looking back and I think even Rachel herself
16:42
might probably admit this now No, it was a tactical disaster
16:45
in that Max it will save the government about 1.4 billion a.
16:50
Year, but look what a cost of political.
16:51
Well, it's cost them in terms of political capital, and now
16:54
they're going to have to reverse on it anyway.
16:56
Who knows what savings they'll end up with in the end.
16:59
There would have been better ways to and you've.
17:01
Got lots of detail about this in your book I mean.
17:03
It's the single biggest disaster.
17:04
Right. So, so tell us how this came to
17:06
be. And, you know, the kind of
17:07
entrance of how the government started to work or not work, you
17:11
know, flush with victory in the initial weeks and months is
17:14
really fascinating. Yeah, so basically Rachel Reeves
17:17
and her team get into the Treasury on the Friday after the
17:20
election victory. They're absolutely knackered, as
17:23
is everyone across government. So many people said to me, this
17:26
is not a sensible way to go into government where people
17:29
basically start running the country on no sleep whatsoever.
17:32
They get pulled into a room to be shown the full disaster of
17:36
the economic situation. Although I should say sources
17:39
tell me they were very much offered to be shown that before
17:41
the election. Rachel Reeves team say no, no,
17:44
we were only ever told broad brush.
17:46
Sources say to me they wanted them in the room.
17:49
Rachel Reeves herself only went to one Access talk.
17:52
There were many others that she could have attended.
17:54
So maybe they didn't want to know.
17:56
Maybe they didn't want to. Know because then when Matt say
17:58
it's interviewing Rachel Reeves and she can honestly say, well,
18:01
I think it's bad. And then after the election.
18:03
So it's much worse than I thought.
18:05
I think that I actually am less cynical than you on that,
18:07
Andrew. I think that they took advice
18:09
apparently from Gordon Brown, who himself said it's not that
18:12
useful for the shadow chancellor to be at loads of access talks
18:15
and they were so focused on winning the election that they
18:18
didn't put enough into planning. So much so that every permanent
18:21
secretary met in Ditchley Park in the east of 2024 to discuss
18:26
how the access talks were were going on and the overwhelming
18:29
conclusion was they were wholly under prepared for government.
18:32
They did have quite a lot of time in opposition to think
18:35
about what they would do and the opinion polls are pointing in
18:37
One Direction. It's true and opinion polls
18:39
saying you're going to become the government.
18:42
It's a terrible mistake. I mean, those in there would
18:45
blame Sue Grey who had been brought in, they would say, to
18:48
prepare for government her her allies.
18:51
Well. Yeah, no.
18:52
Well, we'll come that. But her allies would suggest
18:54
that she wasn't able to actually focus them in on it because they
18:58
were so obsessed with winning and getting over the line that
19:01
they weren't willing to do the preparatory that that their
19:03
attitude was similar to the 2020 Labour leadership.
19:06
We need to win and then we'll fix the country.
19:09
We need to win, then we'll fix the party.
19:11
But obviously to them guys, you're going to win this
19:13
election, but not because you're necessarily winning because that
19:15
lot that are currently in power are really.
19:17
Good at losing. In hindsight, I definitely think
19:19
they would have won if they'd been a bit more honest about
19:21
some of the decisions they were about to make.
19:23
But I think that is easy with hindsight.
19:25
And I think at the time they genuinely believed that it would
19:28
massively reduce the majority. And if it did, they would have a
19:31
lot less political stability when they came into power.
19:34
So their gamble was we want political stability, that the
19:37
thing that has happened is they've lost public trust.
19:40
But on Winter Fuel, they're brought into a room.
19:42
Apparently they're sitting there and the marching band is going
19:45
past outside preparing for the State opening of Parliament in
19:48
Rachel Reid. Where there are only urinals
19:50
apparently. Urinal, yeah.
19:51
So that. Was an interesting detail
19:53
because 'cause it's assumed that no one would ever have that job.
19:56
Chancellors have only ever been men, and there is, yeah, a
19:58
moment where they're all stood. Around, but you're still there,
20:00
though isn't? It yeah, I think they.
20:02
Spanish you want to get rid of it, but they can't be in the.
20:04
End. Probably a protected or
20:06
enlisted. Heroin.
20:08
Ready, Ready for the next man who takes over.
20:11
I obviously not suggesting that's what will happen, not for
20:14
once. And they, they're told these,
20:17
this is the situation, things are dire and actually the
20:19
markets need a signal that there's going to be stability.
20:22
Here are the options of things you can do.
20:24
And on that card was take away winter fuel payments which lots
20:30
of civil servants have wanted to do for a long time.
20:32
On it was also get rid of free school meals for infant age
20:35
children, which I think the attitude was no way we can't do
20:39
that maybe post Marcus Rashford and so on.
20:42
And there were things like cut all the non core budget from
20:45
schools so sports, music and so on on the list.
20:48
They thought the least bad thing was to do winter fuel.
20:52
And as you say there is a principal argument that
20:54
millionaires shouldn't be getting this.
20:56
The problem was never the principal, it was the execution
21:00
because the means test was terrible.
21:03
And actually, from what I've heard, Rachel Reeves tells the
21:07
welfare secretary Liz Kendall, only the weekend before that
21:10
this is happening and letters are coming in from Liz Kendall
21:13
warning there are going to be worthy pensioners who lose out
21:16
here. So it was known that this was
21:20
going to be a problem, but they thought it was too expensive to
21:22
do any other means test. I mean, I think the other
21:24
interesting thing about this whole thing is how disengaged
21:27
aged #10 I mean, you know, my sort of specialist area of New
21:33
Labour, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had constant battles with
21:36
Gordon often concealing things from Tony to the last minute on
21:40
the ground. So #10 would leak them or
21:42
object. But Tony Blair was at least
21:44
quite interested in what's going.
21:46
I think Kia Kia Stara made an almost deliberate decision and
21:49
some people find this admirable. Rachel Reeves is the chancellor
21:52
and broadly she should be allowed to get on with it.
21:55
But a more political #10 end of that period and a more political
21:59
engaged Prime Minister would surely have said, hold on a
22:02
minute, this is a very good idea it.
22:04
Was dysfunctional because they had this situation where you had
22:07
Sue Gray as chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney as chief
22:10
political adviser. The political team, I don't
22:13
think knew about this until the last minute.
22:15
But extraordinarily, someone told me the only thing Keir
22:18
Starmer was shown was the scorecard and he nodded it
22:21
through. It and then come back to one
22:22
sorry, just say does it come back to 1?
22:24
Fundamental problem with Keir Starmer is that you know, he's
22:27
smart. That's what everyone tells me.
22:29
He's got integrity. That's what everyone, even the
22:31
people don't like him say. He's not a political animal.
22:35
He doesn't do retail politics. You watch him at a party
22:38
conference, Is he schmoozing with all the MPs?
22:40
Is he having a pint? No, there's that.
22:43
Great. Story when he was meeting Trump
22:45
you know before Trump became president with with David Lammy
22:48
that they were offered chicken in Trump Tower and he says I
22:50
don't eat chicken and pushed it away I mean I would have for the
22:53
sake of this special relationship I would have
22:55
swallowed that chicken you would have eaten I wouldn't eat the
22:57
chicken but then David Lammy apparently said I'll have yours
23:00
that's. That's good Starmer's value.
23:02
Good, good of Lanny to take one for the.
23:03
Team it it. It's true.
23:05
I mean I. See Vegetarian.
23:06
Too, I think one of actually Starmer's best moments.
23:10
Let's try and find something to give him a foreign policy.
23:12
Well, he's actually been given the Yang got much of A foreign
23:15
policy background. He's been good on that.
23:16
And, and, and weirdly, even though he's the least sort of
23:19
MAGA crowd guy you could imagine, I mean, him and, and
23:23
Donald Trump are clearly not twins separated a bird.
23:26
He seems to have found a way of getting on friendly terms.
23:30
You know why? Because Donald Trump loves the
23:33
title. I interviewed John Bolton last
23:34
year, who hates Trump, you know, with a passion.
23:38
What he did say is that he really likes Keir Starmer,
23:40
although he did call him Keith for quite a long time, because
23:43
he's a Sir. And that was it.
23:45
And I thought, are you kidding me, right.
23:46
He said no, it's true, he's a Sir and and Trump loves the
23:49
title. And also he and he won a big.
23:51
Win and he's a win and he's a win as well.
23:53
Well, apparently there's this phone call between them.
23:55
You know, Donald Trump had the assassination attempt.
23:58
And I think the next day, Keir Starmer rings to say, I hope
24:02
you're OK. You know, how are you?
24:04
And apparently Trump's like none of that, None of that, according
24:07
to people who may have heard this phone call.
24:09
But he's like, you got a massive majority.
24:12
You're a winner, man. You're a winner.
24:14
And it was always the case that they were kind of going to go
24:17
on. And I, I think they're really
24:18
happy with the way he's done on foreign policy, although some
24:21
would say it's a bit ingratiating, although I do can.
24:24
I met, there's the relationship with Elon Musk was something
24:27
that I found really fascinating because, and this is where you
24:31
see Keir Starmer's values. Actually, he comes back.
24:34
He's, you know, they're preparing for Trump and seeing
24:38
Trump and they feel it's all going quite positive.
24:40
And then Elon Musk suddenly starts attacking him.
24:42
I think it was on the 2nd of January.
24:44
I'd just come back to work. He's attacking him about
24:47
grooming gang. But it was absolutely
24:50
astonishing. And behind the scenes they're
24:52
planning for a speech I think on elective targets in the NHS,
24:57
which is going to happen on the Monday after New Year.
25:00
And they just can't. They're just kind of completely
25:02
taken about by this in Downing St. and they don't know what to
25:05
do. He's the richest guy in the
25:06
world. He's also incredibly at this
25:08
stage, close to Donald Trump and he's attacking Jess Phillips,
25:11
the Labour MP, really badly. And apparently behind the
25:14
scenes, Keir Starmer says the attacks are ethic being
25:16
outrageous, right? And actually says we've got to
25:19
come back on this. And then he did.
25:21
And, and he did. And I have to say on that Monday
25:23
in his, you know, they knew it would wipe the NHS stuff off the
25:28
front page. He did come out quite hard
25:30
against Elon. See the other example I was
25:32
gonna give was in in the summer, which was quite soon after he
25:35
become Prime Minister. So there's some are riots in the
25:38
wake of the yeah, he did well, murders.
25:42
He did very well because I think he'd sort of been there before
25:46
as DPP similar disorder. He sort of knew how to respond
25:50
very tough. He thought we'd got to get a
25:52
grip on this and very quickly because he went his in natural
25:56
element. Other areas where he's not sure
25:58
what instinctively he thinks, which means the rest of the
26:01
machine can't say what does the Prime Minister think?
26:05
And we'll work towards that. We'd better wait until we hear
26:08
from #10 what he wants to do. And the other thing I would say
26:11
where your point, Matt, he's not very political.
26:14
He can be. But when he U turns, it's
26:16
excruciatingly slowly. Just going back to Winterfield
26:19
again. Once you've decided you're going
26:21
to U-turn, you have to be quick and clean about it.
26:24
You say which pensioners are going to get it back and are
26:26
they going to get it back this winter, Rather than say, well,
26:29
OK, we're going to have another look at it, but I can't quite
26:31
tell you what we're going to do. Yeah, because then you're still
26:36
looking a bit floundry. By the way, they thought about U
26:38
turning in the summer, last summer in August, so not long
26:42
after they've done it. And someone who was in there
26:45
described it to me like a hurricane in Downing St.
26:48
They were so worried about it and they had all these meetings
26:50
and apparently the view was especially from the Treasury, we
26:53
cannot U-turn on this because it'll look like we will flex on
26:57
any pressure. And the attitude that was
27:00
described to me by someone as basically like fight, fight,
27:02
fight. And they even describe Rachel
27:05
Royds going. To.
27:05
See MP. They called her a boxer in the
27:08
ring and someone said to me even more recently, not long before
27:11
they were starting to decide to U-turn.
27:13
You can't U-turn on a decision like that.
27:15
I yeah, that's this obsession about clarity and not U-turn.
27:17
I think it's completely overrated by politicians.
27:20
And when I end on a couple of quick fire questions, Rachel
27:22
Reeves and Keir Starmer, can they be prized apart?
27:26
Can he sack her if the spending review goes bad?
27:28
Look, look, he can sack her. Really.
27:31
I don't think he will because, well, A, as they lash to the
27:33
same mass, broadly her economic policy is his economic policy,
27:37
and B, who would he appoint? Who would actually run a
27:40
different policy? I mean, any of the names rooted
27:43
about like Pat McFadden would broadly run the same policy,
27:47
partly because actually, you know, they are walking quite a
27:50
narrow path between. I know they've got a lot of
27:52
angry voters, but they've also got pretty angsty markets and
27:56
the the yield on a 10 year UK gilt is currently higher than it
28:00
was during the Liz Trust madness for slightly different reasons.
28:03
But when whenever they don't sweat, they're sweating for a
28:07
reason and they have fiscal rules for a reason.
28:09
Anushka, the spending review, can it make a big diff?
28:12
Can it in theory make a big difference next week on the
28:15
positive side and the negative side?
28:17
Well, if they can get their narrative going about the amount
28:20
of capital spending, they will hope that it they can.
28:22
But I do think the decisions they're going to have to make
28:25
are incredibly difficult. The thing I think that they're
28:29
not going to back down on, but I think it's a problem for them,
28:31
is the welfare changes. I've spent a lot of time around
28:34
the country talking to people about those.
28:36
They think they're popular with reform voters.
28:39
I was in Hartlepool the other week talking to the local MP
28:42
who's going to vote against them.
28:44
Quite loyal but going to vote against them in part because
28:47
they've just had a by election in a council seat safe.
28:50
Labour area lost a reform form and they said welfare was coming
28:54
up continuously on the doorstep. This is called the forecast, so
28:57
we do some forecasting here at your peril.
28:59
Andrew Ronsey Will Kier Starmer fight the next British election
29:01
as Prime Minister? Well, in so much as one can make
29:05
any of these predictions so far out, yes, at the moment I'd say
29:08
yes, he will. What about you?
29:10
I, I think more likely than not he will.
29:13
He's got a massive majority. They don't do a regicide, as
29:16
somebody said the other day in the Labour Party very often, and
29:20
they will. Discover the joy.
29:21
I was getting messages today from MPs saying W streeting is
29:26
definitely charming them all a huge amount.
29:29
Is that news? I mean, come on.
29:31
But in a quite active way. Look, I don't, I don't think
29:34
it's likely that he doesn't fight the next election, but I
29:37
do think it's extraordinary how much trouble they've got
29:41
themselves into in this period of time.
29:44
It is incredibly hard because of the economic situation.
29:47
Some would argue there are things they can do to make it
29:50
easier, but there have been missteps.
29:51
But just very finally, the other big thing I discovered from,
29:54
well, not discovered, but you may know as well about looking
29:58
at Keir Starmer. He is, because on a personal
30:01
level, his friends tell me he's completely unruthless.
30:03
He's a lovely guy in a political setting.
30:07
He is utterly ruthless at every single stage.
30:11
So will he sack Rachel Reeves? I think he's still quite loyal
30:16
to her, to the frustration of some colleagues around him.
30:20
But, but, but could he? Yes.
30:23
Anushka Astana, our new Washington US editor.
30:26
Welcome to the Welcome to the Madhouse.
30:28
Andrew Ronsley, welcome back to THE MADHOUSE.
30:30
Thank you very much. That was fascinating stuff.
30:32
That's it from this edition of THE Forecast.
30:34
See you next time. Goodbye.