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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by Bet three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I am live from my Tommy John Home studio. And
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: in his Tommy John Home studio is my co host,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: my companion, MI cam padre My BFF Professional Better Simon
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Hunter ll s im.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: In Always ready, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Guess what we are going to be talking about? NFL
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Week four best bets. This is where Simon and I
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: narrow down are five picks in the Favorites Podcast one
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by bet
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  Speaker 1: three six five sign up now Favorites Dot Action Network.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: You can still win the one thousand dollars weekly prize
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: if you win best record for the week. We're gonna
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: get into the Foxhole. We're gonna give out our undefeated
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week. No, I
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: did not just mush it. We're gonna discuss Signon's biggest bets.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do our boosted money line underdog parlay, which
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: you will be able to bet at bet three sixty five.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do the underdog round robin. So much more.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, Decisions need to
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: be made. As our old friend and volume podcast boss
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: out there. As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast is presented
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: by Bet three six five. New Bet three six five
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites
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  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars
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• 2:00
  Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A bet
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: three six ' five must be twenty one or older
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: right as always Thursdays during the season. We'd like to
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: They all like to weigh in. They all call that's
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: how influential we are. Lines are move moving based on
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: our conversations. The pros feel compelled to tell us what
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: they think. Simon, what do you got for Sharp?
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Call? Hello, who's there?
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Somebody say it baby one.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: They dropped on a couple of our bets, Chad.
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: They moved Atlanta from one and a half of the
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: two and a half, and they moved the Colts down
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: from two to one and a half, which no shock here.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: That's the professional side. Side.
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: We love talking about it. Side I was unsure about that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguars.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: I said, I'd bet if I got the seven. They
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: did get to seven. I did bet it. It's now
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: six and a half down to six. Of most books.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: That's easily one of the more professional sides this week, right,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: That's that's the side they're all taken where the general public,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: they're all gonna be all over Houston, especially in their cheessers.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: So we've seen that number now come back down to six.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Though before we got on here, I do.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Think that's a number. Come Sunday, that number on skyrocket again.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: We're seeing it every single week, like these numbers are
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: moving big on Sundays as more and more money is
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: coming in.
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: I'm not on the side, but it's the side that
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: you liked. Like I bet it earlier in the week.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: I bet the Bears a minus one. The professionals do
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: love the Bears. I just I haven't really fully got
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: there now that it's up to three. Another one obviously,
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: we love Panthers plus four. A lot of guys talking
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: about that one with Atlanta as well. I didn't think
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: i'd get you there. It was Vegas, they were minus one.
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: They're now minus and minus two. Basically, I every probably
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: talked to head into that matchup has the same view
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: of it. It's just a good spot to keep fading.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson. You know again we talked about that. We
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: knew coming into this, so this is gonna be pros
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: Verus shows. The public loves the bills. They're right now
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: in the action happen. I believe they're eighty percent of
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: the bets, eighty percent of the money is on the bills,
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: So professionals are the reason this number to stay where it's at.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: It's the reason has not dipped down to two or
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: one and a half. It's it's pretty obvious what's either're on.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: So that's that's the number. I did bet.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: But now I'm hoping, because there's so much money right
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: now in the bills, that this number does eventually come down.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: But yeah, Ravens minus two and a half feels like
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: that's gonna have to be the play chat.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, I'm actually not afraid of it.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I feel pretty good about it, to be honest, we're
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna dig into that game. Quick note for
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Thursday night for those of you who do hear this
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, reminder, we played the Cowboys. We played it
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: at five and a half. That's when we talked about it.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Last Sunday. The line got down to four, back up
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: to four and a half, then five, then five and
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: a half. Now it's at six in a lot of places,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: probably because we talked about it and all the Wise
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Guys who have since played it. But look, the consensus
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: wise guy power rating on this Thursday game is in
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: six to seven. So it's finally getting to that spot,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: all right. First game up Philadelphia Tampa Bay plus two
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: and a half. Strictly from a spread point of view,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the Bucks are definitely the right side, as you have
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: pointed out, the line touch three for a second before
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: getting back down to two and a half. But to me,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: and this is where we have to have the conversation
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: that all assumes somewhat full strength on both sides and
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: instead we've got aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Lane Johnson. None
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: of them even participated in the Wednesday walkthrough Videvea Anchwine, Winfield,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Luke Getticky all questionable or out for the Bucks. So
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: who are we betting on in this game?
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: No, it is. It's bad, but I think Evan had
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: some great trends about it as well. This Eagles team,
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: they're just a different team on the road, especially Jalen Hurts,
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: Like historically I looked to back them at home. Last
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: week was just a perfect storm of you know, the
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: price had gotten insane. I think the line had moved
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: six points or seven points from the Saints to being
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: a dog, from being a dog always to being a favorite.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: So it was like, okay, that.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Was a spot we want to take the Eagles here.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: It just feels like they're a little overrated, right. You
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: just gave out all their injuries. This isn't the same offense.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: And you know, as much as I like to knock
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Dennis Allen, he is a good defensive mind.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: He kind of put it on there.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: For that Eagles team in the sense that the Eagles
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: do what they do right. They got a ton of yards,
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: but they failed a bunch of times once they got
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: into the red zone. I see kind of the same
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: thing here with Todd Bowles, Like he just the way
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: he went runs his defense, he's gonna he's gonna get
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: hurts eventually, Like he's gonna set up a trap and
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: if it hurts, will eventually.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Fall into it.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: And you know, the my big question, which I think
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: you talked about a little bit, is just this Bucks
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: team offensively. If this does all of a sudden turn
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: into a shootout, the Bucks just I feel like they
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: can't keep up.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: And that's hesitation for me.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: But you know, they talked this week, they said Bucker revenue,
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: you know, to me, sure, but their number of running
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: backs and to get more touches, that's a great way
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: to attack this Eagles team, right, get the get their
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: front tired, and that's really we see them struggle. So
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: there's a couple of things I do like about this,
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: But I think you're right where it's like, if it's
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: two and a half, I really like it. If it's
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: one and a half in our contest, obviously I wouldn't
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: take that. I think the value is when it's crossing
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: this key number of two. So for me, not only
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: do I like the match for this Bucks team, but
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: it's like the trends fading Hurts on the road has
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: been very profitable for me, So this is another spot
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: where I kind of want to fade him here on
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: the road. Especially the guy's leading the league in turnovers.
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: favorite in these kind of spots. So yeah, it's really
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: what you talked about in the very beginning. It's about
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: playing the number. I make this closer to a pick.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: It's two and a half. I'm gonna take that value
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: every time.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Look, Hurts has turnover problems, right, Yeah, one season might
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: be circumstances, bad offense, bad communication, heading into the quarter
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: season mark of another season. Then it's a thing. Then
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: it's like not reading things right, not holding onto the
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: ball carefully, not tucking it when you need to tuck it,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: that all of a sudden becomes a trend, not just
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: an anomaly to me.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: I think he said, though, you're just trying to do
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: too much.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: That's his issue.
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: It's like when you start trying to do much, you
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: don't play well and you kind of make big mistakes.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: I think sam can be said for Mahomes this year.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: Mahomes has just been trying to do too much and
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: he's not how not looked like the QB were used to.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: So he's in that same boat where it's just like,
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: you're right. If he doesn't correct these mistakes, you know,
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: there's not just a coaching change coming up. There's me
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: a total change of the offense where it's like, Okay,
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: we can't trust the ball in your hands. We're going
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: to take the ball out of your hands and give
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: it to aargably the best player on our team in
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley. So I'm with you on that One's it's
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: bad right now with him and what he's doing.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: With the ball.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is so interesting. You know, I watched a
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: bunch of his press conference from this week where he's
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: talking about performance, and so many players when they talk,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: they sound like automatons right, like they're trying to answer
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: so carefully. Patrick Mahomes didn't say anything revelatory when he
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: was speaking, but he has a way of speaking in
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: sort of his tone of voice and his rhythm and
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: his cadence that makes it sound like he's telling you
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: something natural and human that is revealing about a quarterback
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: he talked about forget about he hasn't been happy with
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: his performance, and not talking about stats, but where he's
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: putting the ball or where he's not putting the ball,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: how he's finding people, how he's running the team, things
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: like that, all things that we are naturally seeing. But
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: the way he says it, I don't know if you
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: ever watched this or even sort of thought about this,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: but he says it in a way that it's just
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: so natural and easy. And maybe this is because he's
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: had so many years of doing great. He has so
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: much confidence. He can say I'm not playing at my
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: best right now and not feel like he's going to
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: have to be defensive about it, but I find the
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: way he communicates to be fascinating.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: No, he's playing bad and he's three and oh it's
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: absolutely terrifying as a.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Fan of any team in this league.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: By the way, yeah, yeah, speaking of bad. My exac
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: decision this week is a game you just referred to
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. I think we'll get him at two
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. They're now at three.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: While those guys have been coming in on this team,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: they love them. So you know, last night I was
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: I was in New York and I had dinner with
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: my buddy Matt. Everyone knows Matt Matt. I was explaining
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: to Matt, as an investor with me in our betting
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: opportunities this year, that I was going with the Bears
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: this week, and obviously like Matt and I were going
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: to Bears games together. In nineteen eighty five, his parents
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: have season tickets. We went to every home game for
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: the Bears. We went to every playoff game together. I
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: went instead of his sister. We have sweated the Bears.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: He went with me to the Bears Super Bowl in
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: two thousand and six, like three weeks after his third
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: kid was born. He left home and went to that
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Bear Super Bowl with me. Like, we have been through
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: wars with this team.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: How many of you guys watched Ferris Beeler's day off together?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, so you know talk about the talk
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: about my life story? Right, was literally shot in the
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: ravine at the house in the ravine across from me. Like,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: it's crazy, right, it's Cam's dad's house.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: I've always wondered that is that Is that actually near Chicago.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: That's in Highland Park. Oh shit, that's that's the house
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about. It's like, right, it's like it's like
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: behind my house, the glass Well, I don't remember. I
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: haven't even lived there in a long time. But here's
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: my point. I went through all the reasons of why
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I was betting the Bears, why we as investors were
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: investing in the Bears, why are we well he at
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the end of it, he looked at me and said,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: listen everything. He I'm like, the five minutes at the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: end of the game for the Rams, they were so lucky,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: everything went right, they only had a five percent chance
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: of winning. Everything went wrong for the Bears, the whole
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: deep dive. And then he looked at me. He goes,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: So we're going to bet on ebra Flus and Williams
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: against McVeigh and Stafford. Yeah, and I said, yes, yes
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: we are. And if we need to do a Capitol
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: call at some point in mid season because of calls
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: like this, I'm gonna be okay with it.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: The only fear is is are we walking into it
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: again with the Is this like the Titans last week?
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: We're taking the lesser coach, the lesser QB against you know,
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: a matchup that we think is good. Like I totally agree, Like,
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: to me, this is really a bet on this Barrius defense,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: Like this is a perfect matchup for you guys being
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: able to attack this Rams team. But yeah, it's tough
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: to get there, especially because the numbers up.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: To minus three now.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: So it's like, man, well I think in the contest
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: it'll be a two and a half. It's not going
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: to be a three and a half because this number
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: is at minus three and it's going to go back
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: down to two and a half. Would you see it
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: that way?
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: I don't know, because, like you just said, like every
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: profession I talked to, for the most part, is on
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: this Bear side.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: They like this Bear side.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: They like the value here and it's you know, just
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: what we talked about, like a couple of little mistakes
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: here and there, they can fix it. They're a pretty
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: damn good team. I think one of the first things
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: they're trying to do is, you know, move away from
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Swift where it's like, at the end of the day,
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: it's theo Lion's the problem. I don't know if Swift's
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the biggest problem. His dance in the backfield's not helping.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: But it's like, okay, if that's the one move they're
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: going to try to make this week, and maybe that
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: will work out for us.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: But they can't have Caleb Williams.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Throwing fifty times, even though against his Rams team that
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: wouldn't be the worst thing, right, that's how you attack
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: this team. It's like they want that though, because eventually
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: he'll make a mistake and they'll capitalize on it. If
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: he turns them all over, that's what's going to keep
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: hurting this team. So this this is a tough game
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: to me. You're right, if it's two and a half,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: it is very tempting to put into our contest because
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: it's a good number against a Rams team that you
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: just said it like that was their perfect game last week.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: I just can't see them having back to back weeks
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: that way.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: There has never been a player in the NFL who
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: gets three yards faster than DeAndre Swift. Every time he
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: gets the ball, he's going so fast it looks like
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: he's going to gain fifty yards in a play. Three
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: yards later he gets tackled and it's a useless play.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Agree with me, right, because you were an Eagles fan,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: like you've seen it. The guy shifty, he dances, it
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: looks like it's going to be an exciting play. He
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: gets three yards.
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: It's It's also like, I don't I'll never get why
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: you guys signed them. I felt like you already had
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: a good backfield. It never made sense, and now you
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: think back, it's like it's twenty four million. It's just
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: it is a weird, weird move for the Bears to
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: get him. So I agree with that he dances way
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: too much.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, the only other thing I like about this is,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: you know Chris Raybon his last seven bets last weekend,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: he went seven to oher. I listened to the Action
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Pod with Raymon and Stuckey in their Sunday six pack.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Raybon had the Bears, So that gives me a little
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: bit of hope, a little bit of hope. Teams coming
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: off a fourteen point plus comeback forty percent against the
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: spread in the next game. This is the ultimate by
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: low Cell. High go Bears, Hungry Bears are violent Bears.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: New Orleans at Atlanta, don't laugh at me, don't laugh
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: at my joy and my passion. Come on, New Orleans
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: at Atlanta. It's two and a half. Look it was
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: at one and a half. You liked Atlanta. This is
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: to me, it is like the Eagles in Bucks game.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Though there's so many injuries on the Falcons offensive line,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: like Drew Dolman is out, he's on IR and he
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: is the best player at his position in the NFL. Arguably,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Kaylen McGarry day to day did not practice on Wednesday.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Home Division faves forty five percent against the spreads in
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: I told you the line was bad. You were you
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: couldn't get there. You thought the line should move more
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: because these old line around. I told you I moved
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: it by half a point, made it two and a half.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: It's now two and a half. So yeah, I'm with you.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: It's like, I really love this line. I still love it,
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: but I know it's gonna be harder to get you there.
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: But I wish you had been at one and a half.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: It feels pretty good to be holding a one and
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: a half ticket in this matchup. It's like, it feels
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: like this this number is gonna matter in this one.
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: It's just gonna be a close, ugly game. Went through
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: Evans trends there. Car tends to struggle in these kind
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: of matchups against Atlanta on the road, so another nice
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: spot for Atlanta trend wise as well. I still think
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: that the Saints are a little overrated. I just think
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: the number says that. It's like I told you, if
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: if there was no injury to this Falcons team, I
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: probably have this number at three three and a.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: Half, all right.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: I did move to two and a half out of
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: respect to the injuries to have upfront. But it's like,
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: at what point do we come back on the other side.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: It's just and it's Kirk Cousins at one pm, right.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: We always joked like this is when you want to
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: bet Kirk Cousins at one pm these type of games.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: So I get your hesitation though it's like it's it's
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: a big deal. But on the flip side, the Saints
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: they lost their all pro center as well, and like
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: we saw, they could not run the ball. We'll see
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: if Kamar practices. He didn't practice this week yet either, Like, so, okay,
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: take some hills out if Kamar is banged up. Now
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: you're taking away the run game, which is the only
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: reason the Saints were as good.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: As they've looked these past three weeks.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: You know, it all starts adding up where it's like,
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: how do you not take Atlanta here? So just something
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: to keep your eye on. If if they do have
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: a bunch of injuries to this backfield for this stats team,
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: it's just another reason for you to want to take Atlanta.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Look, it's going to be interesting, right we're trying to
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: get five for the contest. We don't love putting in
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: that many favorites, and I feel like there's probably three
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: or four favorites that we are both going Between the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: two of us, We're going to have strong opinions on
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: this week three.
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: Though, like I would say, normally you're right, but on
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: certain weeks, yeah, like you gotta take someone sometimes you
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: got to take these little favorites, you know.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Take the number that's in front of you.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: We have ugly dogs. I mean, fuck man, we're about
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: to go through it. We have like three just ugly dogs.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: So the mirror image here in terms of the spread
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: and the side that we like Minnesota at Green Bay.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: This one's been bouncing around. It was at two and
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: a half, it touched three, it's back down to two
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think it might get back to
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: three at least that's what the juice is indicating you
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: liked Minnesota in this game. I think I've come around
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: to it.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: Well we bet I don't know if you bet it,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: but I bet green Bay minus two on Sunday and
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: now I've come back and I have bet the three
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: in Minnesota. But the pros actually love green Bay here,
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: and I'm just I just don't agree where It's like,
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: I feel like the advantage right goes to the Vikings.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: With Jordan Love coming off as injury, it's like.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: Is he rushing back?
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: You know, I'll send you the clip or maybe the
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: film of it, but it's like Jordan Love has done
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: well against Brian Floores in this defense, like he knows
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: how to attack it same with the floor, and.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: You know that that might.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: Be the reason why there's so much professional money coming
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: on Green Bay. So this is a game where I
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: have other dogs I like more than the Vikings. Maybe
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: I'll sit this one out. Just how to respect all
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: these different groups coming in so heavy on the screen
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: Bay eight team. But I think me and on the
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: same page where it's like, I trust this Vikings defense
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: against Love and the Vikings offense is just on another
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: level right now. So yeah, this is definitely an interesting line.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: The trends haven't put out though they're not. They don't
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: favor these three and oh teams that are dogs this.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Week, right But this is where it gets tricky. The
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: trends do favor the road dogs in these division games
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: by a wide margin, right right right, the home dog,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the home favorites, the short home favorites three points or
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: less forty five percent against the spread the past twenty years.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Home Division phase overall forty five percent against the spread
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: since twenty sixteen. So the Vikings are on the right
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: side of that trend. They're on the wrong side of
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: the undefeated trend. So then we got to take it
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: down to the base level of the teams in the personnel,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: and I'm kind of with you. The Vikings defense. It's
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: not like Seattle's defense where they've beaten up on Bo
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Nicks and Jacoby Brissett and a couple of high school
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: kids playing for Miami. They confused Rock Purty, they confused CJ. Stroud,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: like two of the better quarterbacks by the way, against
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the Blitz, two of the quarterbacks who thrive against the Blitz.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: They were doing so much mixing and matching with their defense.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: They made those quarterbacks look bad and that's why they
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: lost those games. Vikings defense is number one in DVA
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: started the season with five sacks and three straight games,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: first time since ninety one. Like, this defense really good,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: and they're going against a quarterback who may be rushing
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: back from a pretty bad injury. So I'm less. I'm
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: actually more around to it, I think than you are
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: at this point, certainly than you were than I was
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just once again, I just all the professional
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: money come in.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: I have to respect it. These guys know what they're doing.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Respect respect. Well, here's one we can agree on, please,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: and by the way, we do need to go into
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the foxhole. So it's very possible we could go into
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: the Foxhall with Minnesota. No, okay, that's a hard noe,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: hard pass from very hard pass. Simon. That was like
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: a disgusted, don't talk to me past all right. Pittsburgh
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: at Indianapolis, Simon says, when it was two, it's down
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: to one and a half. Moved almost immediately when you
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: made the announcement that it was Simon says, basically one
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: and a half everywhere. Look, I think the Steelers defense
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: is mitigated by the Colts top ranked, top ranked, past
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: blocking o line. The Steamers have a terrible offense. I
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: don't think it has an advantage over the cult middling defense. Yeah,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: this is one of the bigger luck ranking games this
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: week with India as the unlucky team. It's in the
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: contest at one and a half. Say your piece, we
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: love it.
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: The fear is, I'll say with the pushback is when
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: I talked to other pros what their hesitation is, because
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: this is this is a pros versus jos. The pros
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: of this Pittsburgh team. Like I was in Atlantic City
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: yesterday with the three different sports books it's each guy.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: I was like, who is the most money coming in on?
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: Right now? It's always going to be the Eagle, especially
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: in Atlantic City. It's where it's proximity. Is number two
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: without a doubt. Was Pittsburgh, Like just you can't stop
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: get enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now you're saying
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh. Compared
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: it to this Colts team, So very telling because I
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: joke with them, I go, yeah, why don't you go
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: back up to two then? And he just gave me
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: a side I look of like, we don't need to.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: I think me and you are only real hesitation. Here
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: is Anthony Richardson, like this guy is gonna burn us
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: on one.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Or two plays.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: Me and you know that when we bet, Yes, it's
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: it's just part of the deal here, especially when he's
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: going against you know, a top to top three defense
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: in this league. It's it's gonna happen. But I think
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: it nailed it. Like this, this old line is gonna
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: be the difference to me in this game. They're gonna
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: ball control with Jonathan Taylor. I believe you had over
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: one hundred yards two touchdowns last week against the Bears.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: It's the same scenario here where it's like, Okay, the Bears,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: the greatest strength they had was they're passing rush and
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: their pass attack and the secondary. Same thing to go
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: with this Pittsburgh team. It's like they they dominate teams
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: that they had the team when teams have to pass
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: against them. When you when you can run the ball,
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: control the clock, that's when they struggle.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: So this, this Colts team, this is a they need
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: to get right spot. They just have not put it
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: together a complete game, even though it looked like they
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: did against that Bears team. That was just a really
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: sloppy game overall. So this, this to me, is a
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: nice spot historically Anthony richterest in his young career when
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: he faces really good defense as he performs really well
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: against them. So hopefully that trend continues here. Chat, it's
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: just really about trust the number as well, like I have.
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: The Colt is a small favorite in this matchup. You know,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: I'm getting two points of value compared to my model
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: against a Pittsburgh team that we talked about. Eventually it's
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: going to go the other way, right, justin field. Isn't
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: this squeaky clean, never turn the ball over kind of guy.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: He eventually has major mistakes. He just been very blessed
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: has not been put in those situations at all because
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: they've been playing with these leads. So yeah, I feel
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: like eventually it's going to catch up to him. We
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: would get some good value on a number. Now we're
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: getting it right. They're three to zero against the spread.
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: Three oh straight up this year, Pittsburgh. Eventually it's going
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: to run out. I feel like it does.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Here, terrible, terrible spot from Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: a road favorite. We know he obviously won this year
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: as a road favorite, but in his career, Mike Tomlin
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: is a road favorite, is as bad as he is
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: good as an underdog. So this is a spot where
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: do you want to fade Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: All Right, we know that one's getting in Washington, Arizona.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Arizona's a three and a half point favorite. This line
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: is held firm. I know, I'm really surprised because it
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: still feels to me like we are getting the Cardinals
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: at a really good time, Like their offense is improving.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Their defense is improving again. It's probably a by low
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Sell high spot, maybe the most obvious by low Sell
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: high on the board because of Washington and what they did.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I feel I just got the sense just looking at
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: your face this second and the way you said that's true,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: that you were wavering on this.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not. I bet it.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: The wavering is more just. I don't get why there's.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: So many professionals go on the other side taking this
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Commanders team where it just feels like the obvious trap
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: where it's like this line hasn't moved too much in
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: your opinion, I thought it moved too much. And a
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: lot of guys are like, no, I think this is
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: where it should be in this type of matchup. And
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: it's like, man, I get Daniel's did look amazing, Like
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: we've never seen anything like that. This kid, you know,
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: one week he can't find the end zone, right, they
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: were driving at will against the Giants, couldn't find the
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: everything he did turn into a touchdown. So it's like
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: me and you have to ride those extremes here.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: We don't know what kind of get kid. We're getting here.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: But when I know one thing, I know what I'm
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: going to get on the Cardinals side is I like
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: the way they're set up right now, and I think
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: they're the way they are built is the same way
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: the Bucks were built. Against this team, it's like they
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: can ball control and have guys on the outside that
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: can eat this Commander's team. And defensively they have guys
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: that can get stops for them. Now their best de
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: tackle is probably gone for the season this Arizona team,
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week,
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: so you know, not total cancel out.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: It's a big deal for their defense.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: But you know, this is a it's a young team
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: that they lost the veteran on the defensive front. But
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: you know this this number is just a tricky one
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: I'm missing something here and I don't know what that is,
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: because to me, this is.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Touch a letdown spot.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: Especially Holy shit, man, can can Jane Daniels gonna any
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: more smoke one up his ass?
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: This week? It's been ridiculous where yeah it's well.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: Deserved, but these conversations of these guys taking the victory
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: laps of being like, see, I told you should have
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: went one over Williams. It's like Jesus christ Man, these
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: people are the fucking worst.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: These are the same people.
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: That were touting Bryce Young to be the number one
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: pick for six months.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: They just they're no different.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: So I don't think this is at all comparable to
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: Bryce Young CJ from last year.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: The gap between Caleb.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: And Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: would you take a guy who's two three years older
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: than Caleb Williams. It just didn't make sense when they're
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: They're playing style is not that much different. So yeah,
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation,
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: the fear that I have right now with this Arizona
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: team because something just seems off for this number. But
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: at three and a half, we think Arizona is a
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: good team. We think they're a playoff team. If they are,
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: this is a game they should smack the hell out
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: of US Washington team after that type of game. So
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: this this is the only Again, the only fear here
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: is we're walking to a team and that's just on
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: our role in Washington. Right, everything is just clicking for them.
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: But this is historically through Evans trends. This is a
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: perfect spot to fade the Jaden Daniels.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Look, the line has moved two points. You're getting a
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: little bit of blowback from wise guys. Are we in
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: the foxhill right now?
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: I'll do it. I love it right in the fox
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: hill with.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: The Arizona Cardinals. Let's clid down into the foxhole. No
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: better team to be in the foxhole with than the
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Guess what time it is, Simon,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: It is time four hour Big Ball, Better the Week
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: and Tommy John, as you know, makes the greatest. And
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: it's one of the reasons why we are undefeated so
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: far this year with our big Balls Beat of the Week,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: and it's why we are so comfortable going with the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: depleted run down Los Angeles Chargers lost seven and a
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: half as home underdogs against the King's City Chiefs. Simon,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: we said it before we came on the air, but
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: we were discussing what we were going to do. I said,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: I think we got to go with the Chargers. You
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: blanched everything about our philosophy, our history, our passion for betting,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: says we take the Chargers. Here, are you my betting buddy?
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: I am no. I love the Chargers. My whole hesitation.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: I think you know it is this was eight and
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: a half. We both bet it. I don't know if
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: you bet at eight and a half or got it eight,
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: but it was like it was at a really nice number.
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: it again with you, like I love this number.
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: I love this spot.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: I'll put in the contest, and it's really about my
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: homes and this Chiefs team. I feel like there's still
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: getting way too much respect. On the flip side, this
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: Chargers team is banged up as they are, they can
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: kind of keep this game close, right We talked about
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: that there's ways.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: For them to stay in this game and keep this
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: one close.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: So it's obviously we're both hoping it's Herbert. I feel
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: way more confident in taking this number, but I think
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: the number saying that Herbert's not going to play. But
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: you know, I'm looking at the live just since you
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: mentioned this game. This number is already moving.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: To seven a couple books.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: So I would say most of the guys listening to
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: the show love this game as well. Hopefully you guys
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: are all right, because I like it too.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: I just don't have this.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: You have way more confident, I would say, in Tyler
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: Heineke and this John Harball team than I do. So
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely kind of trusting Mahomes isn't right yet and
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: this Chargers defense will to get some takeaways. So let's
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: let's take the ugly seven and a half.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, brother, an ugly seven and a half
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: where joe al Rashaun Slater likely out, Joey Bosa did not,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: jo might be out to Yeah, Justin Herbert was limited.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: This is a luck game favoring the Chargers. The Chiefs
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: have grated out as the luckiest team so far in
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: our luck rankings, Simon. But I'm not worried because if
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke goes backup QB's fifty five percent against spread
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty one, dogs have six plus points or
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: more eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: spread through the first three weeks. I am not not afraid.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: Oh man, I didn't know Joe All was out to me.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: That is a big that's a bigger deal because now
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: you're down both tackles. Shit, man, I mean this takes.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: This takes some big balls jab making this bet.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: We got big balls, Simon. Our big balls are supported
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: by the underwear that we put on every Sunday. It's
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It is the
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: second skin that has given me the confidence to make
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: bets like the Los Angeles Chargers without anyone on their
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: offensive line. They are giving free runs to the Kansas
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: City Chiefs defensive line, and we're still going with them.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: When you're truly comfortable, you can be better. If you
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: love Simon and I, if you love this show, you
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: love Tommy John, gey five percent off your first order
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. Save
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I feel like I'm going to have a hard time
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: getting you to get the charters into the contest. We
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: got a couple more games here Cleveland at the Raiders.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: You've been all over this. It was at minus one.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: It actually moved from Cleveland minus one to Raiders minus one.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Now at Raiders minus two, what do you have this
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: power rader at Do you still have an edge in
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: this game? Are we worried? Well, let's let's answer that.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I got it minus three, So yeah, I still
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: show value here. You know, I I did have it
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: at minus three and a half. Idjusted it down a
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: little bit just because I think Minshew is just struggling
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: a little bit and they don't really have a run
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: game right now. But you know, my view of this
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: chat is just Watson has historically been horrible. If if
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: you look at I think a Browns fan did a
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: chart and it was basical of all the quarterbacks they've
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: had since I think two thousand and one. If you
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: go look at that list of these names of these quarterbacks, Jack,
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: you'd be amazed at.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Some of these names.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: You know, who's number two worst quarterback in that entire
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: span to Shaun Watson. So it's it's pretty telling how
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: bad they've been. You know, it's not gonna get any better.
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: We talked about they've already there lost another starter from
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: their offensive line, Miles Garrett. I mean, what by week
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: eight is probably gonna be shut down getting surgery because
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: this team is just is not gonna have a winning record.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: It's just a nice spot to attack this team. It's just.
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: I just can't get over how bad they are. And
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: then you factor in like all these trends evn't had
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: about the Browns traveling from East Coast to West coast.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: Historically they've been terrible, you know, the Raiders as well.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: Raiders at home.
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: I know they just got wildped and embarrassed by the Panthers,
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: but they usually play well at home, you know. So
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: I'm just I'm just thinking about the Max Crosby Wilkens
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: matchup with this O line. It's just how does Watson
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: beat us this? They're gonna fold them up. Man, He's
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: gonna be a lawn share in this game. It's just
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: it's just such a great match of the Raiders team.
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: That's why you've seen this number move and I'll just
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: see the action app real quick. Yeah, it's I mean,
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: it's professionals. Sixty five percent of the money right now
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: is coming in on the Vikings, even though fifty percent
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: of the tickets right now is on the Browns.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: So the Raiders.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's I don't know, I do really like
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: the Raiders. I know it's gonna be hard to convince
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: you on this one, just because there are so many
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: questions about this team, but I'll send you some of
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: these trends Evan has about this Browns team. Man, but man,
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: this is just such a fade spot. They won't be
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: a team I'd back at all the Browns until they
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: do make a switch a quarterback position. You know, they're
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: one win this year there one cover was against the
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: Jaguars team that just looks lost. So yeah, there's a
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: lot of reasons to like this Vegas team to bounce
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: back here in a spot they usually win.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: So here's the one thing I'll say about historical team trends.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I don't care about him. Like, to me, they're not
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: indicative of anything because these teams change so much year
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: to year. Circumstances change. I don't care about historical team trends.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I think what's interesting to me is how if we're
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: going to say Jalen Hurts is having turnover issues and
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: one season is circumstantial, in the beginning of a second
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: season becomes habitual, Deshaun Watson has reached post habitual just
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: bad stages, right, like we tried making so many excuses
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: for this guy over the last two plus years and
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: it's just not there. And I think that's why everyone
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: is starting to feel more comfortable betting against him. Like
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: people are always in the back of their mind worried
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: that he's going to pop off, right, that he's going
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: to have that game, that he's going to find the magic,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: that he's going to be who he was, to paraphrase
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: Rick Patino, Bernie Kosar is not walking through that door.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Like he's just not a very good quarterback right now.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I'm with you, and I'm super
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: excited to now have the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Bears
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: as short favorites in the contest this week. Or should
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: we go with Baltimore minus two and a half, which
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: feels like something that we want to do and Faden
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: an undefeated MVP leading team for a underperforming team that
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: feels a little schizophrenic whose defense has not performed well
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: that almost gave up a twenty five point lead or
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, twenty two point lead to the Dallas Cowboys.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Let's go Ravens.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: I know, I think we both know this.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: We're supposed to do but it is horribly terrifying, especially
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: when you just think about this Ravens team right now.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: They've been dominant against the run, like I think their
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: second best defense EPA per play against the run. But
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: it's because team's gonna pass it against him. I mean,
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: that's that's been really that's been a problem this year,
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: Like teams are being able to pass the ball through the.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Air against this Ravens team. Now we have the.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: MVP coming in with you know, the bunch of nameless joes,
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: but he's making it work. Like when you don't know
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: who he's gonna go to, who's gonna have to force
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: the ball to, it's terrifying. I mean you if you,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: I don't know, if you rewatch that Jaguars game, it
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: might be two too painful. But I loved it, even
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: though I lost money obviously. It's just like he was
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: so good. He's so good, like every ball was right
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: where it need to be, is protecting his receivers, hitting
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: guys in stride. I get the hesitation for everybody for
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: this one, but me and Chad always played these kind
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: of spots. Teams aren't going sixteen seventeen and oh they're
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: gonna lose game.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: They're gonna drop games.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: And you know, maybe he's too hot and we're a
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: little too early stepping in front of him here. But
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: historically this is the number we do play. And I
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: mean we even talked about the action app right now,
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: all the bets, all the money, believe it's eighty percent,
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: it's all in this Bills team.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: This number hasn't budged, Chad, It's not budged.
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: So sports books know this is going to be the
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: number one teas team this week. Right, Why would you.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Not take the Bills up day and a half? Fuck
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: I did it.
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't I can't remember the last
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: time Josh Allen lost by more than a touchdown. I
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: just I've been thinking about it before we came on here.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: I was trying to think of that game, and it's like,
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: I really can't do it. This guy just always plays
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: it tough. So we're basically betting on last possession. Our
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: gual Lamar's got it. He drives a field and our
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: eighty year old kicker, Justin Tucker kicks one through for us.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: We cover this number, like, because.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: This is technique is coming back to us.
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: This just feels like such a sharp number, Like there's
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: a reason they're holding it here at two and a half.
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: And Chad knows as well, like the same reason I
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: wanted to bet Lamar last week, you got him under three.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: If you have him under a field goal, He's twenty
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: three and seven against the spread in his career.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: So I just.
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: Blindly got to keep betting this spot. I mean, it's
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: just made me so much money over the years, and
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: I just keep doing it. So, yeah, have all the
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: ones you've talked about, Like I could see us leaving
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: this one out just because this one really does make
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: me sick to my stomach, Like we even talk about
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: another game that makes me sick to my stomach. But
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: I feel more confident betting it just because there's reasons
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: to bet it. Where we're literally our biggest reason for
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: betting this right now is just the Bills have played.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: I'd say, the Cardinals are all right, Miami's dog shit,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: and the Jaguars don't look any better.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: So it's like we're.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: Kind of betting on is he really this good or
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: is he just been beating.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: Up on bad defenses. That's kind of what this bet.
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: Is right now. So it sounds crazy, We're saying to
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: Josh Allam, and prove it to us again. But that's
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: what it feels we're doing here, Chad taking the Raims.
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: It's like, oh, Okay, you've done great, You've looked great
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: to start this year. Now play a really good team
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: that's one and two and desperate at home in prime
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: time on Sunday night, Like this is going to be
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: a great test for him in this Bills team. So yeah,
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: the more we talk about now, I'm starting to feel
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: a little better about this Ravens team.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Takes nothing but blind faith to convince any better. All
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: they got to do is talk about it for him,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: be like, of course, I'm betting this game. You went
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: from sick to my stomach to feeling confident.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: He's not confident. I would not take Josh Allen.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: I'm telling you, if you watch that Jaguars game, he
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: looks like a man on a mission, right.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: He was amazing. And that is the one thing that
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: worries me is this Ravens defense is not great up
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the middle right now, And like the Jaguars were parting
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: the sea for Josh Allen and he would just do
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: whatever he wanted to do. He was toying with them.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Kyle Hamilton disappointed.
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, have you heard his name at all this season?
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: And like last year, we loved him. He was everywhere,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: He was everywhere.
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: So that's that's been the biggest difference. Like whatever you
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: know Mike McDonald took with him to Seattle. They have
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: not figured that out in Baltimore.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Well, speaking of Mike McDonald, the one thing I will
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: say before we get to him and soon.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: I feel like you're passing on the game we talked
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: about and we love. I am Jaguars.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Well I thought we weren't going to talk about it
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: because well because now the numbers down to six and
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: so like the value.
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Six and a half's out there.
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: I do want before we move too fast, I want
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: fans to know, like two games I think we're not
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: going to talk about I love Jaguars. You can Chad
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: loves it too. You can get six and a half
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: out there. I still like the Panthers. I don't know
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: if you're as luke warm or warm on the Panthers,
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: but you can still get a plus four four and
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: a half of a couple of books on this Panthers team.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: Just before we totally move off of them.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I like the Jags. I think it's a
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: good spot for them. I'm not convinced on the Panthers
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: right now because I think it's a It's the reverse
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: of Bilos high. I think you're buying high on the
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Panthers and I think you're selling low.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: I'm telling you, the only professionals betting the Panthers still
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: the public fucking hates them. Everyone is betting the Bengals.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: That's how it is.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: They just who you're gonna bet on, Joe Burrow or
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: Andy Dalton. They're pretty simple creatures that way. They go, oh,
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: I guess I'll go Andy Dalton. I guess I'll go
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: Joe Burrow.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Then it's like, all right, yeah, of course that's what
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna do. I'm just I'm skeptical that
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: the Panthers can do it again, you know what I mean. Like,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: we've lost so much money on this team. We did
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: make we did make some of it back last week,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: but it was the exact right spot to make it back,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: and this feels like the exact right spot to lose
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: it again. Coming home a ton of confidence, thinking oh
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: my god, we're actually a good team we just needed
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: a capable quarterback and they are going against a team
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: that is like needs a win for their longs. They
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: need to win this game. Their season is over if
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: they don't win this game.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I get I get where you're coming from,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: and I think people think the same way.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: But it's just.
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: I don't think it matters because Joe Burrow, as great
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: as he is, it's like they don't have the pieces defensively.
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: And I saw Chase hasn't practiced this week. He might
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: have a bad shoulder, so he might he might miss
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: this game, which is another big deal to this this
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: Bengo's offense. So I get your hesitation. Man, I don't
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: feel great about it either. I just think Andy Dalton's
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: given them such a spark. I think this is a
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: totally different team. This is the team I thought they
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: were going to be coming into this season, where it's
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: like they have offensive weapons that can beat you with
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: and their defense is bad, but they're young and there's
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: ways they can attack you defensively. So you're right, like,
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: if you want to wait and see them doing another game,
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: I totally get it, because it's like I'm not standing
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: on my soapbox here saying this needs to be one
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: of our five. I just people need to know I
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: did bet this pan their side, and you know I
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: would take it down at the three and a half.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Mike McDonald is getting you know, the he's a brilliant
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: young coach. Oh my god, what a culture changer he
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: is treatment around the media this week. It's what happens
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: when you've got the number one rated defense because you've
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: beaten up on Bnick's Jacoby Brissett and Skyler Thompson, and
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: this line has moved aggressively. It's down to three and
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: a half. Visiting the Detroit Lions on Monday night. You
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: like Seattle, I think Seattle is not as good as
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: it's played. You think they are as good. I think
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Detroit is better than they have played. And getting a
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: team at its exact peak right now, Yeah, because.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: I mean we joke all the time.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: I mean about the same thing we just said of
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: the Bills, right, it's like, well, who they really beat?
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: They still beat them?
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: Like you can't say the same for Cincinnati Bengals, who
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: lost to New England at home and lost Commanders at home. Right,
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: so city early in the year here, teams actually can
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: show up, especially with a new coach. I felt like
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: the Seattle was the professional side. Clearly it was right.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: We've gone for four and a half now down to
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: three and a half, so it's like, okay, at least
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: I'm on the same side as the pros. That makes
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: me feel a little better. But you're right, like, as
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: the number moved too much, now, would I touch it? No,
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: it's down to three and a half now, I'm happy
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: to sit on my four four and a half ticket
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: and let this one play out here. But they're just
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: I told you my main questions right now is about golf.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: He's not looked right through three weeks. They should be
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: dominating these teams. They've played like their defense is so
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: much better this year than they have been in previous seasons.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: I mean it's just glaring and they're running attack where
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: it's like you guys can just lean on these teams,
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: bullyball them like you have the guys up front, and
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: it just has not worked. So I won't make this
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: one number five, right because the numbers moved too much,
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: and I don't think you're anywhere close to my confidence
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: on the Seattle team.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this is uh.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know if if the Lions lost this game,
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: I'd have to totally reevaluate them, because right now I
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: have them power rate is the number two best team
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: in the NFC, And it's like, if they drop this one, man,
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: it's just gonna be such a bad look.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm with you.
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: It's like I feel I feel a little bit hesitation
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: bet in this one as well.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know who our five are right now, but
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: I do you know our five is loaded with a
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: lot of favorites. We're gonna put Indy in there, obviously.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: I feel strongly we're going to put Chicago in there.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's like, I.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Mean, you want to get Chargers in, right, are big balls?
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: I mean we've got to get the Chargers in. Yeah,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: But like after that, Arizona Love Arizona.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I love love Tampa. I know you're not
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: there on Tampa.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: If you love Tampa, I could get there on Tampa,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: like I you know, I don't.
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: I'm if Kamar is out, could I get you there
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: in Atlanta come Sunday? Probably? I think that's a big bill, right.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: I think we have to wait until Sunday to really
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: sort of nail it. I don't think.
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: We're definitely gonna lock in our five though, So if
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: people want to see him right, they can hop on
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: and click on us and see who we picked right
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: for our five. But yeah, I would say there's like
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: seven teams right now. Feels like we get there, and
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: even I know you're not loving the Jaguars, but if
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: they're six and a half in contest, it's kind of
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: tempting with all the trends that point to this team
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: where historically we've just seen Houston, they don't they don't
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: do well as these big favorites.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: And you know, not saying the book is that on CJ.
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: But he is really bad against man coverage and he's
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: great against zone. You know who runs the most man
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: coverage in all football, the shitty ass Jaguars team. So
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: it's like there are some reasons too like this Jaguars
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: team outside of just the trends. But I'm with you,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: like this week we're heavy on the Chalcombe favorites.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to our parlay section here, turning
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: good weekends into great weekends. It's to for the money
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: line parlay underdog money line parlay from bet three six
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: five each week we are giving out a two team
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: money line dog parlay and Bet three six five boosts
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: the odds and highlights it on that site all weekend
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: long under both game pages. Our week four boosted underdog
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: money line parlay we are going with the Indianapolis Colts
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Find the boosts under either
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet three six five. Remember,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: both games are eligible for bet three six five's early
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: payoff promo, where your money line pick gets marked as
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: a win if they take a seventeen point lead even
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: if they lose. So if you want to bet this,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: bet it at bet three six five. We also got
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: to do our money line underdog round robin. There will
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: come up heayday, Halla, lou Yo wanta pay day.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: There will come.
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: Up payday some day.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Some day.
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: There will come up heayday, Hall Yo, Way will come
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: up payday some day.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Here's my my suggestions. Ready, chargers, charge chargers, sick for
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: you are sick.
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: All right, chargers, there's no I love Minnesota, Tampa Bay
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: love Tampa.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: I mean we gotta do Indye, gotta do Indy Panthers,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: Jags love Panthers.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: And let's definitely do Jaguars, right all right?
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: So who do we just say? Minnesota? Uh Indy, Tampa,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Panthers and Jags.
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: Ye, look at that back to back weeks taking the
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: money line on this Panthers.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Team because you're a coward and don't want to put
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: the Chargers in there, which is fine. Give me your
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: big bets right now, you know the numbers.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: It just Mahomes doesn't look doesn't lose to his division.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: He doesn't cover, but he doesn't lose to his division.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Don't give me your excuses.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: What'd you ask me before?
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: What are your biggest bets?
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty spread out.
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: I would say the cold Stuffie in one of my
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: bigger bets right now, Tampa, Arizona, Vegas and the Ravens.
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: After we get off the air, I'll probably hit the
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: Chargers even more because I just feel like the seven
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: and a half is going to disappear. Probably gonna wait
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: and see what the Kamara news is. Like I was
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: having invested in Atlanta one and a half. I have
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: not bet them at two and a half yet, but
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: if he is out Kamar, I'm probably gonna attack the
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: Atlanta line even more so. Yeah, right now, the earliest
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: biggest bets. We'll go Colds, Tampa, Ravens, and Vegas.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Give me your scoot through, lad because you won last week.
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: You had the Ravens, I had Miami.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: What the fuck you had Miami and scoot Rolette. Yeah.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: I went with Denver and then Evan like did his
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: segment and Mike talked me out of it.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: Eh, you son of a bitch?
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: Shit, Oh man, I got a double dip. I guess
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: I'll go with the fucking Colts.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Oh dude, I was going to take the Colts.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: I love them.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I know what I'm doing. You're taking the Colts. I'm
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: taking Arizona, Okay, but I really want the Colts. All right,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: of Research, Evan Abrams for the final word.
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: Finished talking, all right, guys. Well, it's time to jink
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: Simon this week. So let's start with the Colts. I'm
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: going to keep this super simple because it really doesn't
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: have to be much more complicated than this. When opponents
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: score more than twenty points versus a Justin Fields led team,
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: they're twenty one and oh straight up all thirteen fields,
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: wins have come with opponents scoring twenty points or less,
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: with their teams averaging thirteen points per game. Richardson just
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: needs to put points on the board and you'll win
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: the bet. So hopefully that happens. Let's move on to
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: the next AFC team. Here, we're gonna talk about the Broncos.
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: Now you have to understand the process in putting these
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: notes together. I'm trying to predict a little bit of
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: who you guys are gonna like during the show. Give
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: a little momentum, you know, reinforcement, it's always important. So
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: we're gonna go with the Broncos here. I think we
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: like them against the Jets this week. But the Jets' schedule.
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: Jets are the only third team in the last eighty
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: years to play the first three games of a season
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: within eleven day span. Twenty eighteen Jets and the twenty
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: thirteen Eagles the other two teams. So the twenty four
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: Jets are the only teams to pose a winning record
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: during that three game span. But also those other two
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: teams lost by seventeen plus in Week four and both
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: finish the season under five hundred against the spread, So
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of impact there. And it's also
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: worth noting this is the first time Sean Payton's team
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: will start the season as a dog in four straight
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: since his rookie year in two thousand and six with
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: New Orleans and Peyton's teams as a dog September October
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: thirty thirteen and one against the number. So pretty good
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: and done pretty well this year. And now I got
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: to answer Simon's question from before, so this was a
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: quick look up. So I'm pretty sure this one's right.
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: But Josh Allen's last forty nine starts, he's only lost
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: by seven or more once Bengals in the playoffs in
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty three. Lots of losses, but by four, three, six,
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: et cetera. So pretty crazy. But this is why you
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: might want to look at Baltimore. So it is a
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: tough spot for the Bills. Third straight night game and
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: listed as a road dog, only the third team in
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: that spot in the last decade. Those teams zero win
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: three straight up. But more importantly, they're allowing thirty five
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: points per game, so hopefully Baltimore and Romark can get
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: the offense going. And also just a unique spot all around,
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Bills are three and oh, Ravens are one and two,
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: and the Bills are underdogs in this game a three
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: and oh team. There's only been a dog to a
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: team with one win or less six times last twenty years.
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: They're one in five straight up, losing by almost ten
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: points per game. So signs point to Baltimore. Both see
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: how it goes, guys.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: You all of a sudden. I think your reason for
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: your quick turn there from six to your stomach from
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: feeling confident. Now we feel even more confident. What I'm
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: not gonna do is put Baltimore in as my scoo
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: trewe lad. I'm gonna stick with Arizona, even though I've
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: never felt better about the Baltimore Ravens. As a reminder,
• 56:33
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• 57:18
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• 57:24
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