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Trump Signals Restraint on Iran, Favors Economic Pressure · Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel here, and a lot of it has
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Speaker 2: to do with the news.
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Speaker 3: Or lack there of, from overseas.
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Speaker 2: Remembering a week ago today, President Trump was just climbing
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Speaker 2: down from the latest threat to obliterate Iran, having been
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Speaker 2: asked by Iran's neighbors to not go all in with
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Speaker 2: the full on strikes that the President was threatening. Now
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Speaker 2: he's talking about economic pressure as the play with no
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Speaker 2: formal negotiations underway. In fact, Iran is talking with Oman
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Speaker 2: about a new world order in the.
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Speaker 3: Strait of Horrormus.
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Speaker 2: The President sitting down with Axios to say that the
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Speaker 2: US is only semi negotiating with Tehran and in fact
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Speaker 2: we are low keying. It is the quote watching Iran,
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Speaker 2: he says, with its huge inflation and the fact that
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Speaker 2: they have no money unquote. Now, there's been a couple
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Speaker 2: of updates ever since that took place, with the President
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Speaker 2: now on truth social asking for compensation.
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Speaker 3: This was just in the last hour I see.
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Speaker 2: He writes that representatives of the Islamic Republic of A
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Speaker 2: are asking for compensation for the damage done to them
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Speaker 2: during the last five months of military conflict. He goes
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Speaker 2: on to write that it's an interesting idea because now
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Speaker 2: I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran for all of
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Speaker 2: the people they have killed and gravely wounded with the
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Speaker 2: roadside bombs and many conflicts for which they are famous
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Speaker 2: as led initially by General Solimani. There is more where
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Speaker 2: that came from with Bloomberg News now reporting that the
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Speaker 2: President has extended a waiver allowing foreign ships to transport
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Speaker 2: oil and other commodities around the US for ninety more days,
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Speaker 2: albeit with new limits. This of course with an eye
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Speaker 2: on energy prices. And before we have our conversation with
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Speaker 2: Congresswoman Susan del Beney, We're lucky to have Josh Wingrove
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Speaker 2: on the north lawn of the White House right now.
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg White House corresponded Josh Wingrove with US Live. Josh,
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Speaker 2: it's interesting to hear the president's evolving posture. One week
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Speaker 2: after we threatened total obliteration, now we are low keying it.
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Speaker 3: What does he mean by that?
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Speaker 4: I the beholder. I guess you know, the goalposts keep moving.
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Speaker 4: Whether they're still on the field or in the stadium
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Speaker 4: is not entirely clear. But the President seems to be
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Speaker 4: reacting to what he thinks was a goal post shift
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Speaker 4: on the part of the Iranians by seeking these damages,
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Speaker 4: and so he's meeting them tit for tat on that.
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Speaker 4: As you noted, Joe, the people are reading into his
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Speaker 4: low keying comment as a bit of a shift, potentially
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Speaker 4: because that suggests he's comfortable with the status quo as
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Speaker 4: opposed to preparing to sort of pivot back to this
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Speaker 4: threatened massive attack on some part of Iran that has
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Speaker 4: either been only partially or not attacked until now, and
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Speaker 4: so it is sort of just tea leave reading at
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Speaker 4: this point. The president's events today are not public, although
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Speaker 4: he's got an EO signing. Those have a track record
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Speaker 4: of opening, so maybe in the two pm hour will
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Speaker 4: still have a chance to hear from him, that is,
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Speaker 4: after his scheduled swearing in a course of this new
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Speaker 4: Attorney general but present Vice President Vance of course saying
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Speaker 4: over the weekend that we're still in the middle of
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Speaker 4: the game on this, and I think that is basically
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Speaker 4: just the operative m right now. We just do not
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Speaker 4: know how much time is left when these sides will
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Speaker 4: reach to some sort of statisquo agreement. The US has
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Speaker 4: sort of remained opaque on what current traffic levels are
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Speaker 4: in the Strait. Remember, of course, a couple of weeks
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Speaker 4: ago they were bragging that more ships were getting through
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Speaker 4: under the cover of night in American protection than around
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Speaker 4: care to admit, and that of course be a pain
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Speaker 4: point on it. So continuing to watch this one. Gas pasis,
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Speaker 4: of course, remain high here in the US. Republicans will
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Speaker 4: not be very comfortable with that aff activities to be
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Speaker 4: the case for the coming weeks as the big term
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Speaker 4: talk continues to wrap up.
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Speaker 2: Well, right at fort dollars a gallon nationally today, Josh
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Speaker 2: and likely going to move higher based on the increase
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Speaker 2: we're seeing in crude today. It's interesting timing the low
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Speaker 2: keying it following an extended conversation about munitions. Are stockpiles,
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Speaker 2: particularly of long range weapons like our attack EM's supply
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Speaker 2: has apparently dwindled to almost nothing. There's a Defense Apartment
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Speaker 2: memo that was obtained by the Washington Post that shows
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Speaker 2: the Deputy Defense Secretary writing to defense contractors giving them
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Speaker 2: twenty one days to submit plans to drive significantly faster
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Speaker 2: and deliver weapons more quickly. Here to what extent, Josh
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Speaker 2: and I don't know if you can even weigh in
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Speaker 2: on this, are strategic decisions being based on munitions levels.
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Speaker 4: I don't think anyone knows publicly, but there's been this
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Speaker 4: weird dichotomy right where there's been all this reporting that
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Speaker 4: to at least some extent, concerns are starting to grow
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Speaker 4: around US stockpiles not only what they have for themselves,
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Speaker 4: but the line of allies and other like minded nations
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Speaker 4: that are waiting for certain supplies of their own, and
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Speaker 4: that line's order keeps shifting, it seems, from month to month.
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Speaker 4: The US has been pushing back on this publicly, Trump
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Speaker 4: saying we've got more weapons than we know what to
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Speaker 4: do with. There's just not a lot of evidence to
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Speaker 4: really support whether that's the case, but also going so
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Speaker 4: far as to accuse the lets that are saying of
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Speaker 4: treason essentially and threatened to go after them for reporting it,
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Speaker 4: and so it is really muddy the waters. But I
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Speaker 4: guess it's the position of the administration that these leakers
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Speaker 4: need to be prosecuted, but that the information they're leaking
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Speaker 4: is inaccurate, which of course doesn't really as square very easily.
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Speaker 4: But there are a lot of signs that there are
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Speaker 4: at least some ongoing concerns around the pace at which
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Speaker 4: America produces these weapons not only for itself but for
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Speaker 4: its allies. And I think we're just going to continue
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Speaker 4: to be in that, whether that is forcing Trump's hand
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Speaker 4: or influencing Trump's hand in any way. In Iran, no one.
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Speaker 2: Can say right now, just a minute left, Josh, you
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Speaker 2: mentioned Todd Blanche, the President's new Attorney General now acting,
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Speaker 2: will be sworn in for the full permanent position today.
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Speaker 2: Do we know what happens to Bill Poulti, the men
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Speaker 2: who's been keeping the chair warm for DNI and was
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Speaker 2: floated at one point to be installed as an acting
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Speaker 2: ag if they couldn't get this confirmation process through.
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Speaker 4: Bill Pulti is back FHFA, in fact never left it.
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Speaker 4: Now that his d and I is confirmed, he's back
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Speaker 4: to that original role. Remember, there's been an ongoing question Joe,
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Speaker 4: as to when or if the administration will seek to
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Speaker 4: do some sort of public offering of Fanny and Freddie.
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Speaker 4: I think, now the Pulti's back in that full time,
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Speaker 4: that question is certainly in my mind coming back up
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Speaker 4: to speed. Mortgage rates, of course, are at or near
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Speaker 4: the highest level they've been in the Trump administration. That's
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Speaker 4: a huge affordability question for this administration. So I think
7:27
Speaker 4: the question is what, if anything, they'll do on the
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Speaker 4: housing file now that he's back to only wearing one hat.
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Speaker 2: Great to have him back on the North lawn. Josh Windrow,
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Speaker 2: thank you, my friend, as always Bloomberg. White House corresponded,
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Speaker 2: never low keying at God knows, and we'll have more
7:43
Speaker 2: on the war with Iran and the lack of negotiations
7:46
Speaker 2: when we talk to Bernard Hagel from Princeton University a
7:49
Speaker 2: little bit later on this hour. We focus now on
7:52
Speaker 2: the drive to the midterms. If you haven't heard me
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Speaker 2: say it today, eighty five days left. Knowing that Democrats
7:59
Speaker 2: are seizing on unity coming off of a bruising primary
8:04
Speaker 2: for the Senate race in Michigan. This was all the
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Speaker 2: talk at the end of last week Unity Breakfast, Unity
8:10
Speaker 2: events after Abdul al Sayad beat Congresswoman Hailey Stevens in
8:16
Speaker 2: the March to get the nomination for the Democrats in
8:19
Speaker 2: the United States Senate race in Michigan. We actually heard
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Speaker 2: from Hailey Stevens over the weekend. She showed up on
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Speaker 2: the Weekend show to talk about getting back on course.
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Speaker 3: Here's what she said.
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Speaker 5: I get while you're asking the question, but one person
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Speaker 5: doesn't define the Democratic Party. We are a big group,
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Speaker 5: just I mean, the Republicans are a big group, and
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Speaker 5: then there's this independent sunk just kind of swings and
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Speaker 5: we got us. I mean, honestly, at the end of
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Speaker 5: my primary I was saying, no, American is my enemy.
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Speaker 5: And I got my first bill signed for early childhood
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Speaker 5: education in science, Technology, engineering, and Mathematics Christmas Eve twenty nineteen,
8:58
Speaker 5: signed by Trump a week after the first teachment. He
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Speaker 5: still signed it. Hey, that's America, baby.
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Speaker 2: That's America baby, Hailey Stiff. I haven't talked to Haley
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Speaker 2: Stevens in a while, and I was very pleased to
9:10
Speaker 2: see her back on Bloomberg over the weekend. It's where
9:13
Speaker 2: we start our conversation with Susan Delbenet, whose job is
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Speaker 2: to get Democrats elected to the House. The congresswoman, of
9:20
Speaker 2: course from Washington, is also chair of the Democratic Congressional
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Speaker 2: Campaign Committee and joins us now live on Bloomberg TV
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Speaker 2: and Radio. Madam char it's great to see you. Welcome
9:30
Speaker 2: back to Balance of Power. I'd like to start there
9:33
Speaker 2: with this argument between I guess the progressive wing of
9:37
Speaker 2: the party dare I say socialist, and the more mainstream
9:40
Speaker 2: or more moderate Democrats, as I think you might describe
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Speaker 2: Haley Stevens. I saw a notice report out there today
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Speaker 2: that the Democrats re election strategy is to be normal.
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Speaker 3: What does that mean?
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Speaker 6: Well, I think our strategy is to talk about the
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Speaker 6: issues that matter with people on the ground, understand the
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Speaker 6: challenges that they are facing. And right now number one
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Speaker 6: issue across the country is people are struggling to get
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Speaker 6: by housing, food, healthcare, childcare, energy costs, gas prices all
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Speaker 6: skyrocketing because of actions taken by this administration and Republicans
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Speaker 6: in Congress, and having candidates who understand that, who are
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Speaker 6: connected to their communities, that's how we win. The path
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Speaker 6: to the majority in the House is through these swing districts,
10:28
Speaker 6: these purple districts across the country. And I think it's
10:31
Speaker 6: also important to remember there are no cookie cutter candidates.
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Speaker 6: It's having folks who are closely connected to their communities
10:38
Speaker 6: and who are going to DC to actually represent their communities,
10:43
Speaker 6: not be a rubber stamp for Donald Trump. So if
10:45
Speaker 6: you look at our candidates, it's farmers, ministers, veterans, mayors,
10:52
Speaker 6: even an award winning musician, folks who have different backgrounds
10:56
Speaker 6: but share their desire to represent their communit unities and
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Speaker 6: to stand up for them in Washington.
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Speaker 7: D C.
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Speaker 2: Well, I've found this whole conversation very interesting, and I
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Speaker 2: remember when you know, Republicans were talking about a big
11:09
Speaker 2: tense when the Tea Party movement was taking place. And
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Speaker 2: I'm just I'm wondering how you're seeing this. Shouldn't the
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Speaker 2: passion and the energy around a candidate like abdul el sayed,
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Speaker 2: whether you wanted him to win or not be a
11:23
Speaker 2: good thing for Democrats in the sort of net net
11:27
Speaker 2: when you when you look at involvement, turnout what actually
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Speaker 2: gets people off the couch to pull the lever on
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Speaker 2: behalf of Democrats. Is that how you see this or
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Speaker 2: is it distracting from your message?
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Speaker 6: No, people want candidates who are going to stand up
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Speaker 6: for them. We're going to fight for them, who understand
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Speaker 6: and empathize with the challenges that they face and are
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Speaker 6: speaking about these issues directly. And of course my focus
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Speaker 6: is on the House of Representatives and taking aback the
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Speaker 6: gabbles in the House of Representatives. And you look at
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Speaker 6: our map, it is these purple districts across the country
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Speaker 6: that are our paths of the majority. And that's why
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Speaker 6: I said there are no rubber stamp. You know, folks
12:11
Speaker 6: out there who are running on our side, they're running
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Speaker 6: to serve their communities and they are uniquely connected to
12:18
Speaker 6: their communities. And pulling people together. And you know they
12:22
Speaker 6: have to have crossover appeal in these swing districts to win,
12:25
Speaker 6: and those are exactly what our candidates are like, and
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Speaker 6: they have earned the support of a diverse community across
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Speaker 6: their districts.
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Speaker 2: One of the issues that's been bubbling up for populous
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Speaker 2: on both sides of the Aisle Congresswoman, you don't need
12:41
Speaker 2: me to tell you is data centers and then more
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Speaker 2: largely AI. And it's interesting to see this letter signed
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Speaker 2: or let off by the chair of the Progressive Caucus
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Speaker 2: in the House to Speaker Johnson demanding an audience with
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Speaker 2: major CEOs of AI companies. There are quite a few
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Speaker 2: folks who signed off on this to get the Amadon
13:00
Speaker 2: Altman's here to Washington to testify. Bernie Sanders is out
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Speaker 2: with his own letter. I know that's not your chamber,
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Speaker 2: but you didn't sign off on this, and I'm wondering
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Speaker 2: if you share their concerns how important this will be
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Speaker 2: for elections in November.
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Speaker 6: Well, we absolutely should be bringing folks in. We should
13:18
Speaker 6: be having those discussions about what's happening out there. Congress
13:22
Speaker 6: is behind on putting in policy regulations to make sure
13:27
Speaker 6: that we are keeping up with the way the world
13:30
Speaker 6: works today and keeping up on making sure that we're
13:32
Speaker 6: protecting consumers and communities. So absolutely we should be having
13:36
Speaker 6: discussions about what's happening, what people are going to do differently,
13:40
Speaker 6: but also we need to make sure that Congress is
13:42
Speaker 6: doing its part. I think we're behind on putting policies
13:46
Speaker 6: in place, like consumer data privacy. We still don't have
13:50
Speaker 6: a federal consumer data privacy law, and we still don't
13:53
Speaker 6: have policies in place making sure that consumers and communities
13:58
Speaker 6: are protected data, making sure that local communities aren't impacted
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Speaker 6: with energy prices, that consumers aren't paying utility prices for
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Speaker 6: these for data centers, to make sure that we aren't
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Speaker 6: losing farmland, rural communities are negatively impacted. These are all
14:17
Speaker 6: things we need to be having discussions about that local
14:20
Speaker 6: communities need to be having to say on. But we
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Speaker 6: also need federal policies in place, and we are woefully behind.
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Speaker 2: It's not lost on us that you were an executive
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Speaker 2: at Microsoft for some time before you entered politics. You're
14:33
Speaker 2: a no stranger to high tech. Do you feel like
14:38
Speaker 2: this technology is one that's moving too quickly, is one
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Speaker 2: that needs guardrails.
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Speaker 6: Well, absolutely, we need to have guardrails in place, and
14:48
Speaker 6: I'd say it's critically important that we have a Congress
14:52
Speaker 6: that is putting policies in place, learning what's working and
14:55
Speaker 6: not working, and continuing to adapt and move forward. That's
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Speaker 6: part of our And when we have leadership like we
15:02
Speaker 6: do now in Congress with Mike Johnson, who is only
15:05
Speaker 6: interested in doing whatever Donald Trump tells him to do,
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Speaker 6: we have a Congress that's not standing up and doing
15:11
Speaker 6: its job in terms of the oversight and policy making
15:15
Speaker 6: that we need to be doing for our communities. That's
15:18
Speaker 6: another huge reason why we need to take back the
15:20
Speaker 6: House because we are behind, and the longer we wait,
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Speaker 6: the further behind we get.
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Speaker 2: Just got a minute left, Congress from when I see
15:29
Speaker 2: you're out with twelve new targets, and we talked about
15:31
Speaker 2: it last week when you updated your battle map, your
15:36
Speaker 2: battlefield for twenty twenty six, twelve new offensive targets, including
15:40
Speaker 2: French Hill and Mike Flood. Are these realistic seats you
15:45
Speaker 2: plan to flip or is this getting to be a
15:47
Speaker 2: wish list when you include the Chairman of the House
15:49
Speaker 2: Financial Services Committee.
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Speaker 6: Well, I think it's reflective of what we're seeing happening
15:54
Speaker 6: across the country. We have fifty eight districts across the
15:57
Speaker 6: country that we have opportunities, where we're on offense, where
16:01
Speaker 6: we have opportunities to take back the House. And yes,
16:05
Speaker 6: some of these are districts that we're Trump plus eleven,
16:08
Speaker 6: Trump plus fifteen, even higher than that. And it really
16:12
Speaker 6: reflects how people are reacting to the broken promises of Republicans.
16:18
Speaker 6: They have all become a rubber stamp for Donald Trump.
16:21
Speaker 6: They are not interested in serving the communities. We are
16:24
Speaker 6: independent branch of government. We need folks who are going
16:27
Speaker 6: to run to stepar for them. And in every part
16:28
Speaker 6: of the country, even in these.
16:30
Speaker 2: Traditionally redistus in del Bene with Us Live on Stay
16:34
Speaker 2: with Us on Balance of Power.
16:35
Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.
16:40
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17:00
Speaker 2: Monday edition and glad you joined US. You know what
17:02
Speaker 2: is moving higher. Cyber stocks both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto
17:06
Speaker 2: are up over five percent each as open open AI,
17:10
Speaker 2: I should say takes to Twitter to right. We're expanding
17:13
Speaker 2: our cyber security initiative daybreak and introducing GPT five six cyber,
17:20
Speaker 2: a new model for advanced authorized cyber security work Open
17:25
Speaker 2: AI rights. As the threat landscape evolves, We're putting frontier
17:30
Speaker 2: intelligence in the hands of trusted defenders before attackers can
17:34
Speaker 2: deploy offensive.
17:36
Speaker 3: AI at scale.
17:38
Speaker 2: Interesting timing here, as the letters fly in Washington, I'm
17:43
Speaker 2: not even sure which one to start off with. Mark
17:46
Speaker 2: Zuckerberg seemed to get most of the juice in coverage
17:49
Speaker 2: this morning with a six thousand, five hundred word manifesto
17:54
Speaker 2: headlined the future is for Everyone subhead the Path to
17:58
Speaker 2: a Positive AI Future, calling this an incredible moment in history,
18:04
Speaker 2: the use of superintelligence beyond human capacity to create and
18:09
Speaker 2: discover extraordinary new things, build new businesses, express new ideas,
18:14
Speaker 2: learn new concepts, and advance our health and quality of life.
18:20
Speaker 2: He's very careful to point to what he sees as
18:25
Speaker 2: the threats of regulation and a clearing house if you will, centralization.
18:33
Speaker 3: He says that.
18:34
Speaker 2: He's personally more worried about than any of the specific
18:36
Speaker 2: risks that others are talking about. The idea of a
18:41
Speaker 2: clearing house in Washington becoming the arbiter of AI models
18:47
Speaker 2: not going to work, he says, distribute widely and unleash
18:51
Speaker 2: open source AI. Now on the other side of this
18:55
Speaker 2: are largely democratic lawmakers, beginning with Bernie sand Out with
19:00
Speaker 2: a letter to Mark Zuckerberg, along with Sam Altman and
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Speaker 2: Dario Amiday. He sees this very differently and the interest
19:09
Speaker 2: of humanity Sanders rights, stand by your words. Pause AI development.
19:14
Speaker 2: It is not too late to avoid disasters. Stop building
19:17
Speaker 2: machines humans cannot control. He goes on to say, let
19:21
Speaker 2: me be very clear. If you do not take appropriate
19:23
Speaker 2: action now, my colleagues and I in the US Senate
19:27
Speaker 2: will There's also a letter that I just talked to
19:31
Speaker 2: Susan Delbeney about from House Democrats, a group of them
19:36
Speaker 2: signing off on a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson saying
19:39
Speaker 2: Congress has so far completely failed to respond to the
19:41
Speaker 2: threats posed by AI development, and they are calling on
19:44
Speaker 2: the CEOs of the big AI developers to come to
19:48
Speaker 2: Washington to testify, referring to the recent incidents that Open
19:53
Speaker 2: Ai and Anthropic have talked about, where we saw AI
19:57
Speaker 2: models hack other computers systems without direction, hugging face the
20:04
Speaker 2: most recent one calling these incidents serious, cautioning they may
20:08
Speaker 2: be the Canaria and the coal mine, warning of much
20:10
Speaker 2: more serious problems if these models continue to advance without regulation.
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Speaker 3: But this is Washington right now, where.
20:19
Speaker 2: We can't even pass a budget, and you've got a
20:21
Speaker 2: White House that is of course very gung ho about
20:24
Speaker 2: AI and in fact investing in its future. So the
20:29
Speaker 2: political side of this remains gray at best. In our
20:33
Speaker 2: political panel is with us to talk about it. Bloomberg
20:35
Speaker 2: Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano join us on
20:38
Speaker 2: this Monday edition. Genie is our democratic analyst and democracy
20:42
Speaker 2: visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy Schools ASH Center. Rick is
20:44
Speaker 2: our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital.
20:48
Speaker 3: What's your thought on this, Rick.
20:49
Speaker 2: As someone who works with a lot of corporate leaders
20:52
Speaker 2: and of course politics, will Washington get its arms around
20:57
Speaker 2: regulation a lah Burn Sanders and these House Democrats? Or
21:02
Speaker 2: is it more important for Mark Zuckerberg to have the
21:05
Speaker 2: ear of the president as he does remember he was
21:07
Speaker 2: in the front row at that UFC fight on the
21:09
Speaker 2: South LAWNA.
21:10
Speaker 3: We know that they talk. Which is the most powerful force?
21:15
Speaker 8: Well, I always say today in the contract of what
21:18
Speaker 8: you just asked, it's Donald Trump. He controls the House
21:21
Speaker 8: and the Senate, he controls the White House, and by
21:24
Speaker 8: and large he has a very compliance Supreme Court.
21:27
Speaker 9: So one man can.
21:28
Speaker 8: Really direct in the fire of what is or isn't
21:32
Speaker 8: going to be a.
21:33
Speaker 9: Regulation associated with AI.
21:37
Speaker 8: And of course he doesn't control the governorships, and there's
21:40
Speaker 8: been activity, certainly within the Blue.
21:42
Speaker 9: States to try and find state regulation.
21:45
Speaker 8: But I would remind everybody that it's the AI developers
21:49
Speaker 8: themselves who have been calling for government regulation for some
21:53
Speaker 8: time to create, you know, some of the standards with
21:56
Speaker 8: which they need.
21:57
Speaker 9: To be able to manage.
21:58
Speaker 8: An incredibly growing, fast paced market. It's unusual this latest
22:04
Speaker 8: Zuckerberg initiative with the open source that he would separate
22:08
Speaker 8: himself from some of the dialogue that the other AI
22:11
Speaker 8: developers have had. So typically, when an industry expands this fast,
22:15
Speaker 8: you depend upon the industry for a certain level of
22:18
Speaker 8: self regulation, and if you don't get that, then the
22:21
Speaker 8: government steps in.
22:22
Speaker 9: I think we're finding more and more that that's where
22:24
Speaker 9: we are.
22:26
Speaker 3: Genie.
22:27
Speaker 2: I know you heard our conversation with Susan del Benet.
22:30
Speaker 2: Democrats are not a monolith on this, but Progressives do
22:33
Speaker 2: appear to be. Will they get AI CEOs to come testify.
22:39
Speaker 10: I think it depends on who takes the House in
22:41
Speaker 10: the fall. They may, although you know Jensen Wang, invited
22:46
Speaker 10: by Senator Warren, did not appear. There is concern, and
22:51
Speaker 10: I think rightly so looking at some of our leading
22:54
Speaker 10: educational institutions who sent their presidents as to what could
22:57
Speaker 10: occur when you go to testify. But Joe, while you
23:01
Speaker 10: were talking to Representative del Benny, I went on AI
23:05
Speaker 10: and I asked it how many jobs are being lost
23:08
Speaker 10: globally as a result of AI, and it gave me
23:11
Speaker 10: a number eighty five million to three hundred million. It
23:15
Speaker 10: brought me to Golobman. Sacks says three hundred million full
23:18
Speaker 10: time jobs lost globally. And I could go on and on,
23:21
Speaker 10: but I will save you that. The point is is
23:23
Speaker 10: that these are very very real concerns that Senator Sanders
23:28
Speaker 10: and that the Democrats in the House are raising, and
23:30
Speaker 10: many Republicans as well. Because I'm not the only one
23:34
Speaker 10: who can jump on open AI and try to see
23:37
Speaker 10: these things. We simply don't know the impact on all
23:41
Speaker 10: of our lives. And of course job displacement is just
23:45
Speaker 10: one impact. And that's why we do need a conversation
23:49
Speaker 10: at the very least, as the representative told you, and
23:53
Speaker 10: we do need a serious conversation. The problem is that
23:57
Speaker 10: we have a Congress that can't even to your point,
24:00
Speaker 10: pass a budget. So I don't know how serious a
24:02
Speaker 10: conversation is going to get on AI. But this is
24:05
Speaker 10: why so many people are responding to the talk of
24:09
Speaker 10: moratoriums and all else, because this is impacting our lives,
24:13
Speaker 10: our communities in almost every single way. It's a visceral
24:17
Speaker 10: reaction people are having. There's rightly concern and fear and
24:21
Speaker 10: little education. And by the way, Mark Zuckerberg cut ten
24:25
Speaker 10: percent of his employees as a result of AI in
24:29
Speaker 10: just the last year. That was not something he discussed
24:32
Speaker 10: in this very long missive So that is a concern,
24:36
Speaker 10: not just our competition with China.
24:39
Speaker 3: Year of efficiency.
24:41
Speaker 2: Rick, would it behoove Altman ahmade Zuckerberg at the top
24:45
Speaker 2: of this letter to actually come appear before a congressional
24:50
Speaker 2: committee and testify isn't it in their best interest, to
24:54
Speaker 2: Genie's point, to educate people and not lose half the
24:57
Speaker 2: country at this critical moment.
25:00
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that educating the country and even educating
25:04
Speaker 8: the members of Congress doesn't necessarily require you to come
25:08
Speaker 8: up to Capitol Hill and sit through a hearing. We
25:11
Speaker 8: all know what these hearings are, right. It's five minutes
25:13
Speaker 8: for the member to demagogue the issue, and then you know,
25:17
Speaker 8: a couple of minutes by whoever's testifying to try and
25:20
Speaker 8: defend themselves even though they really don't care about what
25:23
Speaker 8: the answer is. And I don't mean to be so
25:25
Speaker 8: sarcastic about it, but that's what it's become. And Genie
25:28
Speaker 8: pointed to the you know, hearings with the presidents of
25:31
Speaker 8: the universities, which I think a tongue lashing they sorely deserved.
25:35
Speaker 8: But the end of the day, it's become a performative
25:38
Speaker 8: art form in Washington to hold hearings on things like this.
25:43
Speaker 9: What we need is real action on the part of.
25:46
Speaker 8: Republican leadership and Democratic leadership to come together, making it
25:50
Speaker 8: nonpartisan in an effort to try and be prepared for
25:54
Speaker 8: the change that is coming. When you read and listen
25:57
Speaker 8: to Eric Schmidt about the oncoming super intelligence and the
26:01
Speaker 8: profound changes that will happen worldwide.
26:04
Speaker 9: It doesn't just have to be about job loss. You're
26:06
Speaker 9: going to have to be ready for it.
26:08
Speaker 8: And the one thing he points out is Congress, the
26:11
Speaker 8: White House, nobody is really prepared for it.
26:15
Speaker 2: Wait, you know, Genie, I just wonder how this became
26:18
Speaker 2: such a part as an issue, And I wonder if
26:20
Speaker 2: it would be if the administration had not aligned itself
26:24
Speaker 2: so quickly and in such a full throated manner with
26:28
Speaker 2: AI executives, with the companies actually taking steak in a
26:33
Speaker 2: chip maker in Intel for the betterment of the industry,
26:37
Speaker 2: showing up with Sam Altman, remember to announce the data
26:41
Speaker 2: center project that was very early on in this administration.
26:44
Speaker 2: And of course we've seen the President invested in stocks
26:47
Speaker 2: like Nvidia, where he's made a lot of money, like
26:50
Speaker 2: a lot of Americans had. But if this was a
26:52
Speaker 2: different White House, would this be a D versus R issue?
26:57
Speaker 2: Or is the democratic value you set simply one that
27:02
Speaker 2: would run counter to the idea of data centers and
27:06
Speaker 2: billionaires enriching themselves with AI.
27:11
Speaker 10: Now I think this is truly bipartisan I mean you
27:15
Speaker 10: look at the governor of Texas. He's been talking about this.
27:18
Speaker 10: Many Republicans, whether they are in Congress or at the
27:22
Speaker 10: state level or voters, are very concerned about this. Because
27:26
Speaker 10: I mentioned job loss. But to Rick's point, it's not
27:28
Speaker 10: just job loss. It's these AI systems going rogue, it's
27:32
Speaker 10: bioweapons creation, it's safety issues. Let's not forget Jeff Bezos.
27:38
Speaker 10: Amazon warehouses are the most automated in the world, many
27:42
Speaker 10: people say, and three times more likely you are as
27:45
Speaker 10: a worker to get injured there than you are in
27:48
Speaker 10: less automated systems. These are very real concerns on top
27:53
Speaker 10: of job loss, and Joe, let's not forget what about
27:55
Speaker 10: pension loss. There's a lot of people who believe this
27:58
Speaker 10: is a bubble at an investment at one point for
28:01
Speaker 10: trillion in these things, they're making about fifty billion. Now
28:05
Speaker 10: that's not going to be a money winner. So is
28:09
Speaker 10: Are we going to see a bubble and then we
28:10
Speaker 10: lose both our jobs and our pensions. These are real concerns,
28:14
Speaker 10: and they don't just impact Democrats.
28:17
Speaker 3: Somebody que the robot anchor.
28:20
Speaker 2: I've got a missing seat over here, Jeanie and Rick,
28:22
Speaker 2: thank you so much our great panel with Bloomberg Politics
28:25
Speaker 2: contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno, we turned back to
28:29
Speaker 2: the war with Iran and the oil markets next only
28:31
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg.
28:33
Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
28:35
Speaker 3: more coming up after this.
28:40
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
28:44
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28:57
Speaker 2: After the best week for stocks since April, of course,
29:00
Speaker 2: oil price is pushing higher. Part of the issue today
29:02
Speaker 2: and keeping a tap or a cap, I should say,
29:05
Speaker 2: on some of the enthusiasm. With gains of more than
29:08
Speaker 2: four percent for both WTI and Brent West Texas Intermediate's
29:13
Speaker 2: approaching eighty two dollars a barrel now and Brent has
29:16
Speaker 2: topped eighty seven dollars as the president's posture on Iran changes.
29:22
Speaker 2: What a difference a week has made in the evolution
29:25
Speaker 2: of both rhetoric and action. It was one week ago
29:28
Speaker 2: today the President was just climbing down from his threats
29:31
Speaker 2: to obliterate the country. At the request of neighbors in
29:35
Speaker 2: the Middle East. Now he says we are only semi
29:38
Speaker 2: negotiating with Iran, remembering a week ago he had said
29:41
Speaker 2: we were on the verge of a breakthrough, one to
29:44
Speaker 2: two days away from a deal. We are low keying.
29:47
Speaker 2: It is the quote from the President in an interview
29:49
Speaker 2: with Axios. We are just watching Iran with its huge
29:52
Speaker 2: inflation and the fact that they have no money, as
29:55
Speaker 2: reported by Bloomberg. White House now signaling it is prepared
29:59
Speaker 2: to let economic pressure build on Iran for an undetermined
30:05
Speaker 2: period of time rather than launch fresh military attacks. Now
30:09
Speaker 2: that has brought a little bit of a bid to
30:12
Speaker 2: oil prices because we don't know how long this could
30:14
Speaker 2: be weeks, months, maybe longer. As effectively the new normal
30:18
Speaker 2: waiting for the squeeze to hurt Iran that much more.
30:23
Speaker 2: Before our conversation with Professor Bernard Hackel from Princeton University,
30:27
Speaker 2: we bring in Mike McLoone Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist,
30:32
Speaker 2: with his take on this most recent posture and what
30:35
Speaker 2: it might mean for oil and gas markets going forward. Mike,
30:39
Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on balance of power.
30:41
Speaker 2: As always, we're back in the eighties. Here today a
30:44
Speaker 2: gallon of gas is at four dollars. Could this be
30:48
Speaker 2: the new sort of neutral position as we wait for
30:51
Speaker 2: this standoff to develop further?
30:54
Speaker 11: If it is, then Republicans will have a big hurt,
30:58
Speaker 11: probably in the midterm elections right now, as you mentioned,
31:02
Speaker 11: we don't know how long is it going to take.
31:03
Speaker 11: But the big squeeze is really obviously happening in Europe,
31:07
Speaker 11: like European gas so right now or it's considered diesel
31:10
Speaker 11: is there. It's the highest level ever, so they're really
31:12
Speaker 11: getting squeezed, which still mean to be curtailed demand, but
31:15
Speaker 11: you really you see the juxtaposition in the US. The
31:19
Speaker 11: number one measure of heat electricity in the US US
31:22
Speaker 11: natural gas that January contract, which will be front month
31:25
Speaker 11: right before president before midterms, has dropped fifteen percent on
31:29
Speaker 11: the year. It's not even pricing for a cold in
31:31
Speaker 11: the normal winter. So we have a surplus of gas,
31:33
Speaker 11: We're creating increasing surpluses of crude oil liquid fuels, yet.
31:37
Speaker 3: We're exporting it.
31:38
Speaker 11: I wonder if something like that might change before midterms,
31:41
Speaker 11: because desperation might be kicking in for our leaders.
31:45
Speaker 2: Fascinating if we stopped exporting Mike, what would be the
31:48
Speaker 2: impact on prices.
31:50
Speaker 11: It would be very discombobulating because a lot of this
31:53
Speaker 11: is flowing around. We're finding out there's a surplus of
31:55
Speaker 11: crude oil, liquid fuels in this in the US, but
31:57
Speaker 11: not the refined products like diesel. As you mentioned, diesel's
32:00
Speaker 11: five dollars and thirty cents. That's near an all time high.
32:02
Speaker 11: Gasoline's around four hours. It's not so bad, but it's
32:05
Speaker 11: the rest of the role to have a problem. The
32:07
Speaker 11: key thing, though, is my theme all along, is he'll
32:09
Speaker 11: get prices lower by midterms. We have three and a
32:11
Speaker 11: half months left. What you heard today is kind of dicey.
32:15
Speaker 11: I don't know how long that can last. But what
32:16
Speaker 11: I've seen is those growing surpluses in US. One good
32:19
Speaker 11: example is US natural gas is about six percent above
32:22
Speaker 11: an average storage this time of year. We have ample
32:25
Speaker 11: supply for winter already and it's only October.
32:28
Speaker 3: Yeah how about that?
32:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, well it's you mentioned diesel. We're at five twenty
32:33
Speaker 2: nine here, gasolines four dollars. Even if crude keeps in
32:37
Speaker 2: this area, do they keep rising?
32:41
Speaker 11: Not necessarily generally so, but the cracks are so wide
32:45
Speaker 11: already generally little narrow, particularly as we get post past
32:49
Speaker 11: post driving season in natural gas, but diesel has a
32:52
Speaker 11: little more of a heating demand for winter. But I
32:56
Speaker 11: point out natural gas has already done, it's already dropped
32:58
Speaker 11: a lot. It's not pricing coldon normal winter. So this
33:01
Speaker 11: is really the US versus the rest of the world
33:03
Speaker 11: in the war and in prices, and it just shows
33:06
Speaker 11: our surplus supply which is going to only increase as
33:08
Speaker 11: we stay above costs of production.
33:12
Speaker 2: Mike, thank you as always getting this started on the
33:14
Speaker 2: Monday edition with US Live from Miami. Mike McGlone at
33:17
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. Energy shares are doing well today, Valero if
33:21
Speaker 2: you keep it. Tabs on refiners up over five percent,
33:24
Speaker 2: x On and Chevron up over four percent each. The
33:26
Speaker 2: XEE is up four percent, OIH up five following the
33:29
Speaker 2: commodity higher. But as you've seen recently, that can change
33:33
Speaker 2: day to day, and we'll see where we're at tomorrow.
33:35
Speaker 2: With the impact on interest rates, of course, very important
33:38
Speaker 2: when oil starts rising, so to do interest rates. The
33:41
Speaker 2: thirty year at five two four today up four tis.
33:44
Speaker 2: The tenure is at four to seven now up six
33:49
Speaker 2: tenths of a percent. As we consider the politics at hand.
33:53
Speaker 2: The President has not been speaking so much over the
33:55
Speaker 2: past couple of days, but he has been posting quite
33:58
Speaker 2: a bit and just a couple of moments ago on
34:01
Speaker 2: Truth's Social with respect to the Iran negotiations, he writes,
34:05
Speaker 2: Iran should be responsible for the damages and death caused
34:08
Speaker 2: to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza. And
34:13
Speaker 2: that follows a post earlier, just in the last couple
34:15
Speaker 2: of hours, in which he points to Iran asking for compensation,
34:20
Speaker 2: he says, for the damage done to them during the
34:22
Speaker 2: last five month military conflict, even though it was never
34:25
Speaker 2: mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings. He says,
34:28
Speaker 2: it's an interesting idea because now we are going to
34:31
Speaker 2: do the same, demanding indegotiations compensation from Iran for all
34:35
Speaker 2: the people, he says, that have killed and gravely wounded
34:39
Speaker 2: with their roadside bombs and many conflicts for which they
34:43
Speaker 2: are famous. All this coming after his interview with Axios
34:46
Speaker 2: in which he referred to the fact that we're semi
34:48
Speaker 2: negotiating with Tehran.
34:51
Speaker 3: Quote, we are low keying.
34:52
Speaker 2: It unquote, and that we are waiting for economic pressure
34:56
Speaker 2: to build rather than pursue further military reichs. Bernard Hackel
35:02
Speaker 2: is steeped in the culture and politics of the Middle
35:05
Speaker 2: East that I'm delighted he can join us at this moment.
35:08
Speaker 2: Princeton University Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Professor Hackel, it's
35:12
Speaker 2: great to have you. When the regime in Tehran here
35:15
Speaker 2: is something like we are low keying it, how does
35:18
Speaker 2: it interpret language like that?
35:22
Speaker 7: I mean, frankly, I think that they think President Trump
35:25
Speaker 7: is all over the place and says too many things,
35:28
Speaker 7: and that he is not a good negotiator. They're I mean,
35:31
Speaker 7: historically the Iranians are famous for being amazing negotiators, and
35:35
Speaker 7: I think they're ratcheting up the pressure on him by
35:39
Speaker 7: making these huge demands over and above the deal that
35:42
Speaker 7: they say they're almost finalized with Oman on the straight
35:47
Speaker 7: on passage to the Strait, asking for reparations, asking for
35:51
Speaker 7: full withdrawal of US troops from the region, I mean,
35:55
Speaker 7: making just massive demands of the blow.
36:02
Speaker 3: Looks like we may have lost our professor here.
36:06
Speaker 2: We'll try to reconnect with Professor Haeckel as we consider
36:10
Speaker 2: what the President has said already. Quote, we are just
36:13
Speaker 2: watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that
36:17
Speaker 2: they have no money unquote, saying that the US naval
36:20
Speaker 2: blockade of the country was deepening the financial pressure. And
36:24
Speaker 2: of course we know as long as that blockade is there,
36:26
Speaker 2: it's much more difficult for Oran to make money. They
36:29
Speaker 2: cannot start getting oil out of the country by train
36:32
Speaker 2: or pipeline very effectively.
36:33
Speaker 3: They need to keep the strait.
36:35
Speaker 2: That's why they're talking to Oman about creating this new
36:38
Speaker 2: order in which there are multiple lanes of travel through
36:41
Speaker 2: the Strait, a negotiation that has not involved the US. Now,
36:47
Speaker 2: when you also think about the level of munitions that
36:51
Speaker 2: the country, our country has been managing, it also makes
36:55
Speaker 2: one wonder what the next moves might be or maybe
36:58
Speaker 2: justify this last one by the president. As the Deputy
37:02
Speaker 2: Defense Secretary Steve Finberg wrote to the major defense contractors
37:06
Speaker 2: they had no more than twenty one days to submit
37:09
Speaker 2: plans to drive significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules. That's
37:14
Speaker 2: from a memo obtained by the Washington Posts. And as
37:16
Speaker 2: we reconnect with Professor Hackel, I wonder, professor, if you
37:21
Speaker 2: can finish your thought there and let me add the question.
37:25
Speaker 2: We hear a lot about forty seven years. How many
37:28
Speaker 2: of those forty seven years was Iran preparing for this moment?
37:36
Speaker 7: Okay, so I apologize for the earlier I'm in at
37:38
Speaker 7: least I'm in a bad zone when it comes to
37:41
Speaker 7: the internet, right. I mean, as I was saying, the
37:42
Speaker 7: Iranians are trying to the Iranians are trying to rattle
37:45
Speaker 7: the president, and I think they're doing a pretty good
37:47
Speaker 7: job of doing that. And you know, he has to
37:50
Speaker 7: be much more, much cooler in dealing with them. As
37:53
Speaker 7: far as the Iranians and preparing for this, they have
37:56
Speaker 7: been They're a revolutionary regime. They've been trying to spread
37:59
Speaker 7: their ideology all over the midd least, and they were
38:02
Speaker 7: trying to build a nuclear weapon. They thought that the
38:04
Speaker 7: nuclear weapon was really the way to create the turns
38:07
Speaker 7: and to protect their regime and that survival. They've discovered
38:10
Speaker 7: that actually controlling harmus is much more effective.
38:15
Speaker 2: It's an interesting way of putting it here, that this
38:19
Speaker 2: waterway is more powerful in influencing the United States than
38:23
Speaker 2: the threat of a nuclear weapon. That said, why would
38:26
Speaker 2: iron ever give this up? Why would it ever make
38:29
Speaker 2: a deal with the United States.
38:33
Speaker 7: I think it also wants to sell oil, so it
38:35
Speaker 7: wants to find some sort of agreement on the reopening
38:39
Speaker 7: of Harmas, but what it wants to do is toll it.
38:40
Speaker 7: I mean, it wants to generate revenue, and it wants
38:44
Speaker 7: to dominate and control its neighbors and countries like Saudi Arabia,
38:48
Speaker 7: Kuwait and so on. And this is one outcome of
38:52
Speaker 7: one possible outcome of this war that has to be
38:54
Speaker 7: absolutely stopped. I mean, the Iranians cannot control this region completely,
39:00
Speaker 7: as they would have literally the entire world over a barrel.
39:03
Speaker 7: They would be able to control the global economy through
39:06
Speaker 7: oil and gas.
39:08
Speaker 3: The world over a barrel. Someone's got to write that headline.
39:13
Speaker 2: Professor Benjaminettnya, who has rejected the plan for Hamas to demilitarize,
39:20
Speaker 2: to disarm, and have Israel withdraw from Gaza. Could there
39:24
Speaker 2: ever be a deal with Iran without this component of
39:29
Speaker 2: peace between Israel and Lebanon.
39:33
Speaker 7: Well, the Iranians want to actually bring in as many
39:35
Speaker 7: other theaters of war into this deal. They were trying
39:39
Speaker 7: to include Lebanon, They're trying to include Israel and Gaza.
39:41
Speaker 7: They're trying to include Yemen and Babyl Mandeb, which is
39:45
Speaker 7: another theater of operation that may heat out very soon
39:48
Speaker 7: and that would block a passage of oil and other
39:51
Speaker 7: ships through the Red Sea. So the Iranans want to
39:55
Speaker 7: do this and they have to be denied this. These
39:56
Speaker 7: are separate theaters of operation, especially in Lebanon, where they
40:00
Speaker 7: controlled the country through a militia, you know, one of
40:03
Speaker 7: these proxy militias that they've developed, and they have them
40:07
Speaker 7: in i Rock and Lebanon, An, Yemen and amongst the Palestinians.
40:12
Speaker 7: I think what Natania who's trying to do, is also
40:14
Speaker 7: try to tell President Trump, but mainly for electoral reasons
40:16
Speaker 7: because he's up for elections later this fall, and begimin
40:20
Speaker 7: Nathanie who the prime minist for Israel, and he doesn't
40:22
Speaker 7: want to, you know, basically concede anything to Hamas because
40:28
Speaker 7: if he does, he looks weak and that's not good
40:29
Speaker 7: for electoral support.
40:31
Speaker 3: Yeah.
40:32
Speaker 2: Right, So what is this phase that we're entering here, professor,
40:35
Speaker 2: As the President refers to, we're low keying at semi negotiations.
40:41
Speaker 2: Do we just turn like this for weeks or months
40:44
Speaker 2: at a time.
40:46
Speaker 3: It's possible, no war, no peace.
40:49
Speaker 7: And you know, everyone at the beginning of this war
40:51
Speaker 7: was predicting barrel of oil at one hundred and fifty
40:54
Speaker 7: to two hundred because of the major disruption that Hormo's represented.
40:58
Speaker 7: It turns out that didn't happen, partly because the US
41:01
Speaker 7: is such a major producer now, also because the Saudi's
41:03
Speaker 7: and the Emordis were able to shift some of their
41:06
Speaker 7: oil through their pipelines away from Harmus, away from the
41:09
Speaker 7: Persian Gulf, and also because the Chinese played a big
41:12
Speaker 7: role in.
41:14
Speaker 3: Decreasing their demand for imports.
41:17
Speaker 7: So all of that that combination led to a spike
41:20
Speaker 7: not happening.
41:21
Speaker 6: Now.
41:22
Speaker 7: The big question I think is going into the end
41:25
Speaker 7: of the summer and into the fall, if this continues,
41:28
Speaker 7: will we see a spike or will you know, US
41:31
Speaker 7: production and Chinese behavior and the Red Sea remain open
41:35
Speaker 7: so that we don't see a spike. And I think
41:38
Speaker 7: that's really the big question that remains unanswered.
41:42
Speaker 2: Some very important questions in the professor, thank you. We'd
41:45
Speaker 2: like to stee in touch with you to find answers
41:47
Speaker 2: to these questions. Mardar Hackel is a Princeton University professor
41:51
Speaker 2: of Near Eastern Studies, and we appreciate your time here
41:54
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thanks for listening to the
41:59
Speaker 2: balance of podcast Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,
42:03
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and
42:06
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42:09
Speaker 2: at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.