Latest / The Dawghouse Fantasy Football / S8 EP459 - The Jinx Is In!!

Transcript

S8 EP459 - The Jinx Is In!! · The Dawghouse Fantasy Football

• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Here, let me just take one second to make sure
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: my hat is on straight because I wouldn't want to
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: have a random umpire fucking toss me from a fucking game.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: You piece of shit. You're in the doghouse. It's known
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: to no reason the trouble unfolds. All the trials of
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: today are no threat. We don't care how you feel.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: There is a notion of miraculous change. Twist into multiple tears.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: What is up, everybody? It is your boy, D-Roy, here
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: with the Doghouse Fantasy Football livestream slash podcast. Find me
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: over on X at Doghouse. Oh, shit, I got this
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: turned around. At DoghouseFF.FF, not even. com on there. At
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: RoyDog underscore 13 over on Instagram and over on YouTube.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: RoyDog13 over on the old Tiki Talk. And Dennis M.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Roy over on Facebook. So go ahead, find those names and,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: you know, like, share, subscribe to the video. It would
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: be great just to have everybody aboard. It is week
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: one of the NFL season, but we still have some
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: things that we need to go over. One thing in particular,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: as you notice, the name of this episode is the
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: jinxes in, which means that we are going through our friend, Mr.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Kaddish's final team, you know, all three of his teams
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: and just the players that are going to disappoint us
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: in 2026. Also, And I'm going to put this up. Oh,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: of course, we're having an issue with Facebook again. Oh, goodness. Gee,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I wonder what's going on over there. Trying to tell
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: me that I'm... Trying to tell me that I'm... Oh,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: it didn't even fucking go over there. How dumb is that?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Resolve the issue, fucker.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: Let's see.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Let's see if I can move. This isn't available right now.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Why not? Interesting. Go to feed. It's not even feeding.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: What kind of bullshit is that? Well, that's disappointing. That's disappointing. Oh, well.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: It is what it is. We still have our Xtreme going.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: We still have fucking YouTube going. So it is what
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it is. We'll find out what's going on with that.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: But any which way. Everybody can check out the live
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: stream here anyways. The spreadsheet is up for week one,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: not only just for the New England-Seattle game, but we
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: also have every other single game up. Don't have the
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: injury report outside of the first two games. Nothing is
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: really that important yet in terms of the injuries. A
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: couple of guys running questionable. But early in the week,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: that's not really all that big of a deal. So
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: we'll just deal with it. I'll deal with that Thursday.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping tomorrow during the morning we get all the
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: pricing for FanDuel and DraftKings for the San Francisco-Seattle game.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: If anything, I'll have it up on Thursday. We're going
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: to run through that game. on Thursday anyways. Tomorrow will
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: be the full breakdown of New England at Seattle, our
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: first game of the week of the season there. So
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: repeat of the frickin' Super Bowl already in the first week,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: which I found to be weird, odd, you know, however
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: you want to say it. But a lot of stuff.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: not too much stuff really going on. Christian Gonzalez corner
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: for new England did get his contract finally for your
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: 135 million with 102 guaranteed. So they have him under, uh,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: he was still in the, uh, in the spreadsheet listed
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: him on there. There was rumors that that was coming here. So, uh,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: we have that all set up and ready to go
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: be kind of interesting to see how he handles, you know,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: He himself in that game, let alone New England Patriots,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: how much they have him on the actual field because
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: he wasn't practicing. So he's not really up to game shape,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: but it is what it is. But, yeah, I mean,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: that New England game, we'll do a couple things here
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: real quick. Travion Henderson, we're going to see if he's
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: practicing today. It's not looking too good right now on there.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: The only thing going on for Seattle, Torrey Horton, wide receiver,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: he is questionable. Safety Nick Emaniori, he is questionable, but
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's anything to be worried about. And
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Ty Akata, too, the other safety, should be perfectly fine
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: over there. But, yeah, so we got that. That's all
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: good to go. We are going to share another screen here.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: We're going to go to Jim's, Mr. Kaddish's fantasy football
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: teams here. And I'm going to do this in all
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: its full glory here. So we got one league. ACLs
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: and Achilles are overrated. The guys that are going to
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: screw us here in 2026. We're going to start at
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: quarterback Dak Prescott. Running back Jonathan Taylor. We kind of
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: went over these last week. Running back Kyron Williams. Yikes.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Just got him the other day in my auction league. T.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Higgins for the Cincinnati Bengals. DJ Moore for Buffalo. Thanks
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: for checking in, Pauly. Brock Bowers. Tight end there. uh,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Luther Burden, the third, uh, and Kyle Menungai. So we
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: got a couple of bears in there. So he's jinxing
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: his own team. Texas defense is going to fall completely apart. Uh,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: let's show the bench players here. RJ Harvey, nobody should
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: have been drafting him anyways. Uh, Jordan Tyson, like I said,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: not going to probably be back this year. Debo Samuels, uh,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: for the Niners. Now this Debo Samuel pick, this is
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a reason why maybe, uh, Stribling should actually be drafted
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: because Jim Jinks, one of the two main starters. Xavier
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Thomas for the Bears. He'll never play now for that
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: team ever. Seth McGowan, backup running back for Jonathan Taylor
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: in Indianapolis. Kyler Murray. So if you thought J.J. McCarthy
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: was going to be back, Kyler Murray is going to
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: show him up. And Dallas Goddard, who we did not
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: have interest in anyways. Let's take a look at this
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: next team. Not a leg to stand on. Now, this
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: is our Vampire League, so he's actually facing the Vampire
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: in the first week. Vampire League, the Vampire does not
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: get to draft alongside everybody else in the main draft.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: He basically starts out with a team with what's left. Now,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: it's a 10-team league, so there's There is stuff to
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: work off of, but it is rather difficult. So it's
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of luck, with the waiver wire, grabbing guys
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: that maybe are starting because a starter got hurt. He
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: gets first waiver priority on everybody. It's a fun league.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: It's difficult to win. It really is. But we got
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia, which sucks. Chase Brown who everybody
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: loves for Cincinnati. He's gone. Javante Williams, that sucks. I'm
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: going to lose him. The Sun God is going to
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: be dark. It's going to be dark this year. Sorry.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: DJ Moore, double whammy. Colson Loveland, so another bear. Ramondre Stevenson,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: so the New England Patriots are going to be down
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: to probably the third string running back. Marshawn Lloyd. So
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: pick up Caleb Johnson. And then the Seattle Seahawks defense.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Now his bench. Luther Burton III, again, jinxed, double jinxed.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Dazon Stribling, I guess maybe we're just not going to
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: care about any wide receiver over on the 49ers. J.K. Dobbins,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: so he's double jinxed the backfield there, which makes Jonah Coleman...
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: All that much more of a high-urgency pickup. Rookie, Makai
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Lemon for Philadelphia. So, Dontavian Wicks, go pick him up.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Woody Marks for the Houston Texans. Liked Woody Marks until
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I saw this. Patrick Mahomes, so he's going to re-tear
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: that ACL. And then Khalil Shakir, which he has a
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: boner for and I have absolutely no idea why. But
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. Now, he did send me
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: his third team. So we're going to take a look
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: at that. And I'm going to give you those players.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: This one. If the Bears don't make the playoffs, you
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: can go ahead and you can just blame Jim for
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: this one. All fans of Chicago. Caleb Williams. Chase Brown.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So Chiefs Brown gets a double whammy on there. DeAndre Swift.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson. That sucks. Michael Wilson. So hopefully you got
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Jr. over there. Colston Loveland. Cam Scataboo. So
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: he is going to get a concussion and never come
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: back after the first week. Mekhi Lemon, double whammy. Trey Smack, great.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: So worst kicker in the league. for the Packers. Eagles defense,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: so he's spread the wealth around a little bit with
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: his defenses. Wondell Robinson, hopefully you have Carnell Tate. Josh Jacobs,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: who will be in prison before this first game. Emmitt
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Johnson for Kansas City, that's the backup for Kenneth Walker III.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Jalen Coker, so... I guess Xavier Leggett's the next guy
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: to get because everybody's got Ted McMillan somewhere. Khalil Shakir,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: who is going to have just a fabulously terrible year,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: and Xavion Thomas for the Chicago Bears. So very Bears-centric draft.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: You know, he made fun of me and said that–
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: that the Packers weren't going to make the playoffs. And
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: I was like, well, looks like the Bears are going
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: to be joining them. So cheers, mate. Cheers. So like
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I said, when the Bears don't win, the Bears do
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: not make the playoffs. You have no further place to
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: look then from Mr. James Kavich. So we're going to
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: slip into a little bit of DFS. We're going to
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: do a little bit of talk over here. And kind
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: of what, how we look at the salary, how we
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: look at everything on there. I actually should probably go
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: back to the DFS spreadsheet at some point here and
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: walk everybody kind of through this. So, usual deal for FanDuel, $ 60, 000
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: in salary cap. I'm actually going to take my face
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: off of here so you can see the full screen.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So you have $ 60, 000 to wish to work with for
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: your salary, most of the time in a 50-50 or
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: what's considered cash play. That's where 50% of the participants
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: win double their money, minus the, you know, VIG that
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: you pay to the site. So $ 60, 000, what you're looking
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: for is generally two activities. what you used to look
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: for was two X and that would bring you up
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: to about 120 points. Most of the time that used
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: to be the pay lines. Now the trains that the
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: lineup trains that we've run into for the past few
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: years now, um, have kind of bumped that line up
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: or at least, you know, kind of moved up the
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: line from where we've wanted. We've got ahead of that, um,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: early when the first year that we started seeing lineup
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: trains and that was coming about, they were talking about
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: it on the Sirius XM. Uh, we kind of were
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: proactive on it and we said, let's move our pay
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: line up. Um, we're going to go up, we're going
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: to try and hit about 140 and we should be good. Whether,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: you know, you make the 140 or not, if you
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: hit 135, you know, something like that, we should still
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: be good, um, with a 15 to 20 point buffer. So, um, Essentially,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: for that, instead of looking at a 2x return on
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: your investment, so essentially if you paid $ 9, 000 for a guy,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: you were looking for 18 points minimum from that player
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: or 2x. With the 140 threshold, we're looking at a 2.33x
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: return on there. So if you had a $ 9, 000 player,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: you're looking at about 21 points. So you're trying to
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: increase it little by little on there, while also not
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: being completely chalky with what is being talked about online
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: on there. Like if every single program that you're listening
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: to Has Jameer, for instance, has, let's just say, B.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: John Robinson, right? Going against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh last year, you
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: could run on errors. We're not exactly, I'm not exactly
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: 100% sure that I would do that yet again. But B.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: John Robinson at $ 8, 800, let's just say it like that.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: You were looking for a 2X return. um on there
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: uh 2.33 this year of course um but if everybody
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: is saying bijan bijan bijan bijan we have to make
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the decision on whether or not bijan is at definitely
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: needs to go into the lineup um or is somebody
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: that we are willing to fade and we can find
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the points elsewhere this this is more of the question
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: when you have like the Jameer Gibbs up here, you know,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: at the very, at the very top, of course, pricing
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: is a little lighter on the first week or two.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Usually like say Jameer Gibbs, if he was definitely the
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: top price running back, he was probably at about 10,000,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: which takes about a six year budget out. So you,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: you have to decide on whether or not you 100%,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: need him in that lineup, or if you're willing to
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: fade on it and kind of get off of that
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: chalky play. The less ownership at certain places only benefits
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: you because you're able to get different. You're able to
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: kind of try and get yourself ahead of those lineup
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: trains because if you're behind the lineup train, which is
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: going to be a chalk lineup, there's no thought process
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: to it whatsoever. It's something that comes out of essentially
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: it comes out of an optimizer. So we're, it's kind
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: of man versus computer. And so if you're following, if
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: you're following the train and you end up behind them,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: because say one of your value guys just doesn't hit,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: you know, doesn't get what we want, or you have
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a failure within there and you end up behind that train,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: you're always going to finish behind the pay line. It's
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit easier if you're, or I shouldn't say behind,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: but like if you're in a GPP, which is a
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: guaranteed prize pool, this is what you would call the tournaments, right?
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit easier to kind of fade out
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: from that chalkier lineup just based on the fact that
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: you have a little bit more room for error. So
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: it's been a little bit easier to hit a pay
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: line within that tournament versus the cash game. So what
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: people have done is they've kind of transitioned their play
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: more into the GPPs and tried to do more of
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: their double ups over on that way because the pay
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: line has been a little bit lower than what's been
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: in the cash game. Now, I still believe in doing
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the 50-50 games versus, you know, kind of setting aside
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: that cash game money and putting into the tournament. So,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and maybe I'm a sucker for doing that, but I'm also,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: I also believe more in my system the way that
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I kind of work down the roster and whatnot, and
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: we're going to work and I'm going to try and
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: work it down a little bit, uh, tighter this year,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: maybe give a couple of guys just for say value
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: type things and just kind of leave it at that.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Like these are my value guys, you know, that type
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: of deal be a little bit more talking points. It
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: should get out. It should get the write-up out faster. Um,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: because we're going to take more of a stand on
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: certain players. I can talk about in the podcast, not only,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: you know, we'll talk through the actual schedule on the
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: main live stream podcast. When it comes to who I've
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: actually selected, that's, you know, that's only going to happen
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: on the site. You know, I'll make the video, I'll
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: run through I'll run through and I'll break down the writeup, um,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and kind of like, you know, I always talk to
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: my buddy, Jason, who's always on here that, you know,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: what I really should do is for each of the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: positions kind of have like those guys that were like
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: last cuts, you know, have like two or three names
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: that were like, these are the guys that I just
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: cut out of there that didn't, did not make it. Um,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: because there's a number of ways that you can just go.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: And sometimes, you know, you take that position on a
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: guy that you have more faith on, and then that
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: guy who got cut out, he's the guy that kind
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: of goes off. So it's just kind of being a
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: little bit more, even more open and honest just about
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: what I'm doing within the process. And it's not like
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the last cut guys are not going to be. If
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I cut a guy out, I'm not using him in
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: my lineup. And, in fact, a lot of the times
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I tell people what my lineup is for cash. It's
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: not saying that, like, we should all kind of, you know,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: do those lineups or whatever. But there's so few of
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: the people that actually follow this process versus doing that
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: train process that it shouldn't hurt. Us, you know what
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I mean? Not if, not if we're, we believe that
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: we're going to get above and beyond that train. So, um,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: fun little thing on there. The showdown slates, I will show, uh,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: through the spreadsheet, uh, outside of that, the main spreadsheet,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: like when I do the live stream of the podcast
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: on them going through the main, nobody is going to
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: see that on the live stream or podcasts. That's going
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: to be on the site only. You want to get
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: over there? You want to check it out? Seven-day free trial.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Use the promo code PIT2026. It gives you 50% off
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: in case you want to stay. You can be there
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: for 50 bucks for the entire year. An entire year.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: That's 365. So that's less than a dollar a week.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: So if you want to kind of either play devil's
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: advocate or if you want to support the site, for
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: less than a dollar just to kind of check it
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: out for a year. I'm telling you, there's a lot
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: of people that say it's completely worth it. The spreadsheet
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: itself is going to show you, help you make your
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: lineup decisions if you're doing your flexes and whatnot. It's
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: been a very valuable tool. The strength of schedule chart
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: as soon as DVOA stabilizes has been an invaluable tool.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: for each and every year and it should be out
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: it'll be out a lot faster it'll be out on
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: tuesday mornings or you know at least early tuesday afternoon
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: um to make that decision on there and i'll i'll
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: put i'll try to get some waiver stuff up on
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: the site um outside of the actual like you know
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: running through on a podcast or just kind of a
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: live stream type thing maybe i'll maybe i'll just even
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: do a video and just put it on there could
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: do that um But FanDuel here, I'm going to show
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: you how to get to your 50-50s and whatnot over
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: here on FanDuel. I have not put in any of
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: my money yet. I'm waiting until tomorrow. So, full roster.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: You have your options. You can do tournament, guaranteed prize pools.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: These are the ones like the Sunday Million and all that.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: I don't play any of these. My whole thing that I...
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: tend to play is I'll play for 10K. I'll play
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: for this 10K over in here. 10K in there, there's usually,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of free entries in the shit right now.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: They're usually down at the bottom. Where's the one that
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I usually... Oh, my God, where are we at? I
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: play for that 10K. Oh, the qualifiers are just killing me.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: This one, this $ 9 entry, dropping it down to less
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: than 10,000 people. You play for a 10K top prize
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: on there. So I'll usually play like three entries. I
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: always say for your GPPs, three entry max. We'll get
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: over to DraftKings. They have like 20 entry max contests.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Those are the ones that you really should be in there.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Now this one does have a 150 max on there,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: but because you're going against less than 8,000 people, I'll
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: just pay up and kind of get in there. Single
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: entry contests are great too. $ 33 will get you against
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: just less than 1,500 people on there. I mean, you
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: could even do 5K single entries. Now, you can go
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: against just 10 and put in 10.6K for a shot
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: at 60K. Um, there's another one. There used to be
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: a 50, $ 55 one in here too. There it is. Uh,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: the bomb, the 55 entry versus 53, 47. This one
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I'll usually do, uh, thanks. Get out of here. This
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: one I'll usually do a one entry and, um, I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: started doing it later in the season after everything's kind
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: of acclimated, um, within there. So those are tournaments, 50-50s
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: in here. So this will give you by price point
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: on there. Let's just go to the $ 10 one. So essentially,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: 100 people in there. Top 51 win money. Pardon me.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Top 51 win money. You get $ 18, uh, back on
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: a $ 10 investment. So you make $ 8, right? $ 2 go, uh,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: to the site. A lot of times I'll go with
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: the 25. Um, cause that big back to FanDuel seems
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: a little less, uh, pertinent um so 100 entries top
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: 51 win you put 25 in you get 45 back
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: so you make 20 bucks so that's kind of how
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: those work that's how you can find them in there
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: just get to 50 50 and then um wherever wherever
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: you want to settle in like even if you did
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: a hundred dollar Now you start getting into the 2020s.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I'd rather have everybody kind of get into these contests
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: where you have at least 100 people. It gives you
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit more wiggle room on your play, the
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: more contestants that you actually have in there. But you
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: do want only single entry on there. Um, some of
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: the stuff over on DraftKings, you have, uh, two, uh,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: you can have up to about, uh, three or five
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: on some of them. It's never that bad. $ 25 ones
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: have been kind of my bag on there. Um, the hundred,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: the hundred dollar one or the a hundred person ones,
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: even these 50, uh, personal ones, you may be able
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: to escape some lineup trains, um, to be honest with
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: you in those 50 ones. Cause I, I, if I'm thinking,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: thinking like a DJ and piece of shit, um, who
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't care about anybody else, you know, any completely about
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: anybody else. And they just say, Oh fuck. Yeah. Use
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: a lineup train. Uh, we'll just have a lineup train
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: and take over the whole thing. Um, A lot of
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: those trains do not cash out anything. So for like $ 25,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: if they happen to hit in there, they only make
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: like $ 1. It's not even worth the fucking play doing
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: it that way. So we can do full roster. You
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: can do single game. Snake draft, nah. Super flex, I'm okay.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: I'm okay just not doing it. but single game give
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: you like the Wednesday million and stuff like that. Um,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: if you have a higher, if you have a higher
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: bank roll on there, you could get into the 44 entry, um,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: go 10 K for first and only, you know, play
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: against just a shade over a thousand. Um, I would,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: you know, that's the bomb on there. So you're taking,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: you're taking 25% of the prize pool. If you get
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: in first, um, they're, These ones, like the $ 4 entry,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: 20 max on their 10K to first, $ 40, 000 prize pool,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: just under $ 12, 000 or 12,000 people in play. You can
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: do 20 max. I'll usually just do like three max
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: entry on there. But I've really gotten into just doing
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: one lineup and just kind of letting it ride. And
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: I'll show you that stuff later. uh tomorrow but let's
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: flip over to draft kings in here get through this
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: here so uh draft kings you have a fifty thousand
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: dollar budget fan duel is half point ppr draft kings
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: is full point ppr all right um so you really
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: want the guys that are getting that have the catches
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: in there um generally everybody will look at more like
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: the running backs that will catch the ball in there
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: so like say you get derrick henry uh for instance
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: he'll always be kind of a value like in the
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: six thousand dollar range so um genti is a real
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: big value against miami right now at 6600 i i
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if he's going to be highly owned
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: and i'm loving every minute of it even though even
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: though I should probably fade it, but be interesting to
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: see if him or Brock Bowers is still not pretty.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: He's not priced too bad. He's priced like a top
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: and a higher end wide receiver at 6,900. So we'll
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: have to see what happens in there. Same idea, a
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: little bit different price points. With a $ 50, 000 budget on there, though,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: we have typically looked for 3X or 150 points. You
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: say you have a 50 max cap, and you times
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: that by 3, so it comes out to 150. We
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: shoot for 180 on there. Again, raising the bar just
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: for lineup trains and stuff like that within our 50-50.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: So instead of a 3X return, we're looking for a 3.6.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: So guys that catch a lot of balls, rack up
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: the catches with the potential for touchdowns. That's what we're
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: really looking at. So guys like Wanda Robinson are huge. Um,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: at the higher end, you're looking at guys like Amonra St. Brown. Um,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Zay Flowers should be a high, high volume catch guy.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Cause they're trying to model him after Amonra. And that's
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: why a lot of people like Parker Washington too. Lamb
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: and Karki is going to be very popular. Um, I
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: don't think D.J. Moore is going to be as.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: Popular, but this $ 5, 600 price tag on him, even though
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: it's a bad matchup against Houston, that's going to be
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: a real contrarian play right in there.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of people are going to touch it.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Parker Washington actually has a really good matchup, so just
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: be aware of that. Even though it says opponent ranked
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: third against Cleveland, it's actually a really good matchup right
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: in the middle He's honestly, he's probably about the only
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: guy that I really am emphatic about for a week one,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: but he may be popular just because of the name.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: So yeah, just kind of guys like that. Michael Wilson might,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know if a lot of people are going
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: to be on Arizona this week going against the LA chargers.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: I'll give you this kind of heads up. So LA
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: chargers actually should, pretty much run away with this game.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: If that gives you a hint on who I'm looking
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: at as a running back, um, against this Arizona defense.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: So that means that Arizona is going to have to
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: really play catch up. So as much as we, we
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: don't say that, um, Jacoby Bursette is going to be
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: able to keep up that whole, um, passing load like
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: he did last year out of game one, this might be,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: this might be fool's gold, but, um, I think we
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: see the same thing that we did last season where
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett is really tossing the ball down the field.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: And that's going to trick a lot of people into thinking, Oh,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: well that passing attack, it's going to continue to be
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the same. So we fade it week two, but yeah,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: that's kind of, that's kind of the thing on there.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: We do like to do the pay down defenses. There's
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: a couple of really good pay down defenses this week. Yeah.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: I think everybody's kind of sleeping on the Browns right now,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: although it's in Jacksonville, so I may stay away from it.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Where is it? The Cincinnati Tampa Bay, I'm kind of
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: digging at $ 2, 700, but honestly, I'm looking here and here.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: It might be $ 2, 100 Browns. You want your turnover heavy games.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: So I think a lot of people are going to
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: pay up. They're going to pay for Jacksonville here at $ 3, 400.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: So I'm trying to see if we can kind of
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: get off of that. I would love to see everybody
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: go on Chargers, and then they just get lit the
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: fuck up. Eagles, Buffalo, no. Titans, no. This Titans one
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: might be interesting. I think a lot of people are
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: going to try this against the New York Jets, too,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: at 3,100. That's why I'm trying to kind of get
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: off of it. Ravens might be interesting, contrarian against Indianapolis.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Danny Jones maybe not running nearly as much. That offensive
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: line isn't all that great at 3K. It's kind of
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: a savings in there. But like I said, Bengals versus
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Real fucking interesting. And I know Cincinnati has
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: started out poor, but.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: You know, in recent years, but... But look at this
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett price.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: $ 5, 100.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: He'll fucking sling it. You get a couple of interceptions.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: It's not ideal. But we're talking about garbage points in there, too.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I know....
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit higher on Las Vegas' defense here.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: But with Jante on one side, I'm kind of circling
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Malik Willis for Miami. And this all stems back, if
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: you think about when the Packers were playing the Baltimore Ravens,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: that Derrick Henry was just stomping a fucking mud hole
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: in the Packers' run defense. And then Willis came in
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: there and just started fucking doing his thing, you know,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: running around, tossing a couple, you know, touchdown passes and
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: stuff like that. And he was making up ground and
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: he was scoring a ton of points. So I, as
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: much as like Willis and Brissette, like Brissette probably don't
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: want to use them in cash. Willis, I definitely am
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: not using in cash, but he's going to be interesting
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: in GPP. Um, I kind of got to get a
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: vibe on what's going on and think how to work
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: through shifts. driving the truck so I can listen to
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: every single fucking podcast and find out who's on who.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: If I was going to give you one guy who
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I think might be the guy in cash, I like
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Burrow against that Tampa secondary. And if you use Burrow,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: then you don't have to use Chase or Higgins either.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Herber is really interesting if we're getting off of O'Mary
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: and Hampton. If we want to pay down a little
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: bit more. But Hampton's only at $ 6, 800. So that's an
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: interesting price right in there. Jente's even better at $ 6, 600.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: So.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I just got to see if there's another running back
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: that I would use outside of that. H and no, no. Pollard,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: Pollard I've considered, um, against the jets, but he's kind
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: of always done us wrong every time I fucking list him.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: So he might be a final cut. Did look at
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Jordan Mason at 5,400 against green pay. I'm still not
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: sold moving back to that three, four, but, uh, Yeah.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: So we'll kind of get into the pricing points a
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: little bit more. Like the guys that I like a
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: little bit more. You know, like the different pricing points
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: and stuff. Like what's considered a value and whatnot. And
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: I do do that on the spreadsheet. I do want
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: to show this, even though this is going to be showdown.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: going to raise this up so you can see it
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit more all right so when i do
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: this there's three there's three sites that i use fanduel
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: yahoo and draftkings yahoo will get through it's its own
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: different animal um in there in terms of pricing points
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: so and within that when i get the csvs and
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: install them in there i do give everything a rank
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: now that's what that is it's not like Oh, he's
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: the second best quarterback option on the board or whatever.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: And showdown is going to be a little different because
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: you price it. Pricing is all done because everybody's a flex.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: So he's the second highest paid flex or price flex
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: within everything. You know, the three sites. So if you
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: get to a guy like, say, Ramondre, right? So... Romandre
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: is $ 10, 000 on FanDuel. He's $ 26 on Yahoo. He's $ 8, 400
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: on DK. He's the fifth highest-priced player on the entire slate.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: He's the fourth highest-priced player on Yahoo. That's what makes
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: him a value on these other two sites. Vice versa,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: if you look at Travion Henderson, if he plays, he's
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: only the 14th highest-priced player at $ 17 versus... FanDuel, and DK,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: where he's the eighth highest priced person. This is the
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: true way to figure out your values for your sites.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: If you're just using this and determining what's your value
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: based on just, you know, DraftKings pricing, I guess, but
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: I think you're really kind of hurting yourself on there
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: because you can find much better values through the other sites.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Like AJ Brown, for instance, is a better price over
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: here on FanDuel and Yahoo versus DK. Dobbs, way better
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: price over on DK. Middle value price over on FanDuel.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Highest price over on Yahoo. You can get some values
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: over here, too, because Hunter Henry is only $ 4, 800 on there.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: These are important Okay. All this is important because you
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: need to find your value guys. And this is how,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: you know, on a showdown slate, you got to try
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: and find your value guys and whatnot. Um, cause you
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: got to try and make that lineup fit and make it,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: you know, worth a shit. Um, probably not doing defenses,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: but you have to look at the kicker. You don't,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: you don't use it. You can't use a kicker over
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: on Yahoo, um, on showdown on showdown slates. Um, On
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: showdown slates, you can use kickers, but only on FanDuel
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: and DK is probably the better way to say it.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: So most of the time when you're looking at kickers
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: for showdown slate, I say you want bare minimum, you
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: want 10 points out of them, even though you're paying
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: down for that. If you're going against a better defense,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Seattle's okay. I don't think they're all that great. They're
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: great in certain situations, right? But they have losses from
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: their defense. They've gone to different teams. So it's not
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: a foolproof defense. But Seattle's defense will be very highly
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: used against the Patriots for this game. But like, say,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Borg-Allis or if you even look at Jason Myers for Seattle,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: you're looking at you're kind of looking at whether or
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: not they can get up to 15, 10 as a minimum,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: but you want 15 out of it. That's kind of
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: the thing. There's no, you know, X mark, like, you know,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: you need to get three or four X out of
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: a guy. You're just kind of the best play available
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: in there. And granted, like, you know, this is going
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: to look good. Rush defense DVO is going to look good.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: A lot of people are going to be on Jadarian
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Price because he's priced at like say only 7,200 over
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: at DK, but he's going to be very, very popular.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking of going back to my Super
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Bowl one where I kind of said New England was
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: going to get ahead and then Seattle had to play
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: from behind and just kind of rewrite that one because
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: that would put JSN back on board against Christian Gonzalez.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: But we'll talk about this. We'll talk about this and more.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: No need. No need to sit on that. But, yeah.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Streamlined it down a little bit. I got everything. You know,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit easier to have all the data
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: in there. We still have the defense versus pass direction DVOA. Unfortunately,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I had to put it over here to kind of
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: make it fit. So, that kind of sucked. But, you know,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. I may end up just
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: kind of bringing this up. Next year, I'm still fiddling
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: with it. It'll be like this this year, but should
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: be readable, should be legible.
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: You know, DVOA above the DVPs for the different positions.
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: Most people who've familiarized themselves with this will be able
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: to figure it out very easily. But I think it
• 47:41
  Speaker 5: came back very clean this year.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: So it is what it is. Hopefully none of your
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: teams are jinxed. We will all want championships. But, again,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: if you don't win it and you had one of
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: the guys that Jim drafted, blame that fucking guy. Don't
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: look at me. Blame Jim. Peace out.