Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 13th, 2026: Ukraine Cripples Russian Oil Refineries & Britain Targets IRGC Operatives

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October 13th, 2026: Ukraine Cripples Russian Oil Refineries & Britain Targets IRGC Operatives · The President's Daily Brief

0:12
It's Tuesday,
0:13
the 13th of October.
0:15
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:17
I'm Mike Baker,
0:18
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:20
All right,
0:21
let's get briefed.
0:22
And first up,
0:23
Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil industry
0:26
are inflicting serious damage,
0:28
and new reporting reveals just how effective the campaign has become,
0:33
even as President Trump
0:35
pressures Kiev to stop.
0:37
Later in the show,
0:38
Britain says Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps,
0:40
the IRGC,
0:42
are likely behind a suspected plot targeting an air base housing American bombers,
0:47
raising new concerns about the regime's covert operations on NATO soil.
0:52
Plus,
0:53
Western intelligence agencies warned that Russia
0:56
is plotting assassinations against European defense industry executives,
1:00
targeting the people responsible for producing weapons for Ukraine.
1:05
And in today's back of the brief,
1:06
Colombia's decades-old guerrilla conflict is heating up again,
1:10
with rebels launching a car bomb attack
1:12
just as fighting intensifies between insurgents and government forces.
1:17
And here I thought
1:18
we didn't have enough conflict zones in 2026.
1:22
But first,
1:22
today's PDB spotlight.
1:25
We've been reporting on the growing tension
1:26
between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky,
1:30
particularly over Kiev's ongoing attacks against Russia's oil refineries.
1:35
Now President Trump is obviously very keen for those strikes to stop.
1:38
He's blamed them for rising fuel prices in the US as the midterm elections approach.
1:44
Although there is the chance that the Middle East
1:47
conflict has something to do with rising fuel prices.
1:50
Now,
1:50
his administration
1:52
is reportedly threatening to
1:54
restrict American weapons sales to Ukraine
1:57
unless Zelensky backs down.
1:59
But there's a reason Ukraine has been so reluctant to abandon these attacks.
2:03
I mean,
2:03
besides wanting to defend their country and citizens,
2:06
new reporting suggests that it's the same reason
2:08
that Washington is so determined to stop them.
2:11
Simply put,
2:12
Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil industry
2:15
is working.
2:16
A new investigation by The Washington Post reveals just how systematically
2:20
Ukrainian forces have been dismantling critical
2:22
parts of Russia's refining infrastructure.
2:25
And over the weekend,
2:26
another suspected Ukrainian drone strike
2:29
left a major Russian oil terminal in flames,
2:32
with the facility still burning
2:34
some three days later.
2:35
That latest attack occurred in Russia's Rostov region,
2:38
where a petroleum storage and shipping
2:40
terminal associated with the Novoshakhtinsk refinery
2:44
was reportedly struck overnight on Friday into Saturday.
2:48
By Monday,
2:48
the facility was still burning.
2:51
According to the Moscow Times,
2:52
Ukrainian monitoring channels reported that 7 of the
2:55
terminal's 12 storage tanks had caught fire,
2:58
with another showing signs of damage.
3:00
Now those figures have not been independently confirmed.
3:03
But satellite fire detection systems verified a major blaze at the location.
3:09
The terminal can store roughly 60,000 cubic meters of petroleum products and
3:14
handle approximately 3.5 million metric tons annually.
3:18
It's part of the infrastructure that Russia uses to move
3:20
refined petroleum products to domestic customers and export markets.
3:25
But the Rostov attack is
3:27
just the latest example of a much larger operation.
3:31
The Washington Post examined 54 Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries
3:36
and found that Kiev has developed an
3:38
increasingly sophisticated strategy for disabling those facilities
3:43
rather than simply trying to blow up an entire refinery.
3:46
Ukrainian drones are targeting specific pieces of
3:49
equipment essential to the refining process.
3:51
That includes distillation units and other specialized machinery
3:55
used to turn crude oil into gasoline and diesel and other petroleum products.
4:00
And what makes that strategy especially effective is
4:03
that some of those components are enormously expensive,
4:06
technically complicated,
4:08
and difficult to manufacture.
4:10
And since Russia also faces Western sanctions restricting
4:13
its access to foreign equipment and parts,
4:15
these components are not easy to replace.
4:18
So a relatively inexpensive Ukrainian drone can damage
4:22
machinery that takes months to repair or replace,
4:25
and while a refinery
4:26
might look largely intact from the outside,
4:29
the destruction of one critical processing unit can force
4:32
substantial portions of the facility to shut down.
4:36
According to data cited by the Post,
4:38
Ukraine struck roughly 2/3 of Russia's 30+
4:41
major refineries between April and August.
4:44
By late August,
4:45
approximately 50% of the country's refining capacity was offline.
4:50
Some facilities were undergoing repairs,
4:52
and others could eventually resume operations,
4:54
but it demonstrates the extraordinary scale of the disruption,
4:59
and Ukraine has been getting better at penetrating Russia's defenses.
5:03
The post describes increasingly complex drone operations involving decoys,
5:07
larger waves of aircraft,
5:08
and intelligence
5:10
used to identify vulnerable points in Russia's air defense network.
5:14
For Moscow,
5:15
that presents an enormous challenge.
5:17
Refineries are sprawling industrial facilities
5:20
scattered across a vast country.
5:22
Russia cannot place its most sophisticated air defense
5:25
systems around every refinery and fuel depot,
5:28
pipeline,
5:29
and shipping terminal.
5:30
And the consequences are becoming difficult to ignore.
5:34
Russia has experienced fuel shortages,
5:36
rising gasoline prices,
5:37
and disruptions to refined product exports.
5:41
President Putin acknowledged earlier this month that the refinery
5:44
tax had cost Russia approximately 1% of its GDP.
5:49
That's according to his government's estimates.
5:51
That's a remarkable admission from a country whose enormous oil and gas reserves
5:56
have long been among its greatest economic strengths.
6:00
Which brings us back to the growing dispute between Trump and Zelensky.
6:05
Washington is trying to negotiate a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure
6:09
with an initial proposal focused specifically on oil refineries,
6:13
but Ukraine
6:14
has only one refinery of its own,
6:16
and that is non-operational after being damaged by Russian attacks.
6:20
So a refinery-only ceasefire would protect a major Russian industry
6:25
while offering Ukraine basically
6:27
nothing in return.
6:29
And for Kiev,
6:30
agreeing to such a deal would mean giving up
6:32
one of the few ways that it
6:34
can inflict substantial economic damage deep inside Russia
6:38
without committing troops to a major ground offensive.
6:41
Moscow still produces enormous quantities of crude,
6:43
and damaged refineries can be repaired,
6:45
of course,
6:46
but Ukraine has demonstrated that Russia's ability to process,
6:50
store,
6:50
and distribute that oil
6:52
is vulnerable to repeated attack,
6:54
and that is the dilemma at the center of the dispute with Washington.
6:58
Trump wants to reduce prices at the pump for US voters.
7:01
Zelensky meanwhile is being asked to abandon a campaign.
7:05
That appears to be imposing some of the most
7:07
significant economic costs Russia has suffered during the war,
7:11
during its war
7:13
for Ukraine,
7:14
the argument is simple.
7:15
After years of trying to weaken Russia's ability to wage war,
7:19
Kiev has finally found something that's delivering results.
7:22
And
7:23
well,
7:23
at the same time,
7:24
the White House is cutting deals with Putin,
7:26
easing sanctions on fuel exports
7:28
in an effort to lower those diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections,
7:33
while also pressuring Zelensky
7:35
to unilaterally stop one of the
7:38
most effective targeting efforts Ukraine has developed
7:40
in their effort to damage Putin's war machine.
7:44
All right.
7:44
Coming up next,
7:45
the British government links Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps,
7:48
the IRGC.
7:49
To a suspected plot against American bombers previously based in the UK
7:54
and European intelligence agencies warned that Russia
7:57
is targeting defense industry executives for assassination.
8:01
I'll be right back.
8:04
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9:23
Britain is now directly accusing Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps
9:27
of orchestrating a suspected plot against American bombers that
9:31
up until recently had been based on British soil,
9:34
and London is responding with new
9:36
sanctions targeting Iranian intelligence operatives.
9:40
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Parliament Monday
9:42
that the suspected operation against RAF Fairford was
9:46
highly likely coordinated from inside Iran
9:49
and almost certainly directed by the IRGC.
9:52
Last month,
9:53
British police arrested several suspects following
9:56
suspicious activity near RAF Fairford.
9:59
That's the British air base that had been hosting American B-1 bombers
10:03
involved in operations against Iran.
10:05
The arrests came amid intelligence warnings about
10:08
a possible Iranian-linked attack against the installation,
10:11
including
10:12
concerns that drones could be used to target American aircraft.
10:15
The threat was serious enough that the US
10:17
subsequently withdrew its B-1 bombers from the base,
10:21
returning them to the US.
10:22
But until now,
10:23
the British authorities had stopped short of publicly identifying
10:27
who they believed was directing the suspected operation.
10:30
That changed on Monday.
10:32
The British government announced new sanctions against
10:35
two Iranian-linked individuals.
10:37
One is Ruhala Baz Gandhi,
10:39
identified as a senior figure in the IRGC's intelligence apparatus with
10:43
responsibilities involving counter-espionage operations.
10:47
The other is Shahram Alireza Tammarzadeh,
10:50
whom British authorities
10:51
linked to the Zindati criminal network,
10:54
that's an organization
10:55
accused of carrying out operations against Iranian dissidents located overseas.
11:01
Both men now face British asset freezes,
11:03
travel restrictions,
11:04
and other financial penalties.
11:07
Now Britain has not publicly established that either
11:09
of these individuals personally organized the Fairford plot,
11:13
but their designation illustrates a broader
11:15
concern among Western intelligence agencies,
11:17
and that's Iran's growing reliance on criminal organizations and
11:21
other intermediaries
11:23
to conduct overseas operations.
11:25
And London is not acting alone.
11:28
Britain says the US and 27 other countries
11:30
have joined in condemning Iranian state-backed activities abroad,
11:34
while condemning it should do it,
11:36
including suspected assassination plots,
11:38
sabotage,
11:38
and other covert operations.
11:41
British authorities have been warning about this threat for years.
11:44
Intelligence officials have
11:45
identified numerous suspected Iranian-backed plots
11:48
against individuals on British soil,
11:51
particularly against dissidents and critics of the Iranian government.
11:55
But the RAF Fairford incident potentially represents something more serious.
12:00
British intelligence now believes Iran's security establishment
12:03
was behind a suspected operation targeting American
12:06
strategic military assets inside a NATO country.
12:10
The Iranian government,
12:11
for its part,
12:12
denies involvement.
12:13
Well,
12:13
that is surprising.
12:15
They've challenged British authorities to
12:17
provide evidence supporting the allegations.
12:20
There are also important details that investigators have not made public,
12:24
including precisely how the suspected attack was supposed to unfold
12:27
and what direct connections exist between
12:29
the arrested suspects and Iranian intelligence.
12:33
Nevertheless,
12:34
Britain's public attribution marks a significant development,
12:37
and for European security services,
12:39
the concern is that Fairford is not an isolated case
12:43
but part of a much broader Iranian campaign
12:46
to threaten Western interests outside of the Middle East.
12:50
All right,
12:50
turning to Russia
12:52
here on the PDB we've been keeping an eye on Russia's campaign of sabotage,
12:56
espionage,
12:56
and other gray zone attacks across Europe.
12:59
Now,
13:00
Western intelligence agencies warn that Moscow's campaign
13:03
is growing more dangerous,
13:05
with the Kremlin stepping up efforts
13:07
to assassinate Europe's defense industry leaders.
13:11
In a new report from the Financial Times,
13:13
intelligence officials from 5 European countries
13:16
say Russian operatives
13:17
are targeting chief executives and other senior employees at defense companies,
13:22
particularly smaller firms manufacturing drones and components for Ukraine.
13:26
As one senior European intelligence official put it,
13:28
quote,
13:29
the threat level has risen in Europe not only to property
13:32
but also to people.
13:34
Now we've already seen how far one of these alleged plots can go.
13:38
Back in early 2024,
13:40
American and German intelligence agencies
13:42
uncovered and disrupted an alleged Russian plot to assassinate Armand Papager.
13:47
He runs Rheinmittal,
13:49
one of Europe's largest defense manufacturers
13:51
and a major supplier of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
13:55
Intelligence sources believe Moscow wanted a high profile assassination.
13:59
And Papager had been outspoken about supplying weapons to Kiev.
14:02
Authorities disrupted the plot
14:04
before it could be carried out.
14:06
According to the Financial Times,
14:08
the war in Ukraine is deadlocked on the battlefield,
14:10
and Russia's economy is struggling.
14:12
Against that backdrop.
14:14
The Kremlin has ordered an expansion
14:15
of sabotage and hybrid operations across Europe
14:19
to weaken support for Kiev in the coming months.
14:22
European intelligence officials say there's also been a change
14:24
in what Russian intelligence services are willing to consider.
14:28
Assassinating European civilians was once regarded
14:30
as taboo even within those agencies.
14:33
Now officials say
14:35
it's become a more prominent part of the campaign,
14:38
and that brings us to another part of the FT report.
14:41
Who is Russia actually using to carry out these operations?
14:45
Well,
14:45
intelligence sources say much of the responsibility falls to the GRU,
14:48
that's
14:49
Russia's military intelligence service.
14:51
The GRU reportedly works closely with organized criminal networks,
14:55
spreading the work among people in different countries.
14:59
So far,
14:59
European authorities have already uncovered
15:01
and disrupted some suspected operations
15:04
while detecting suspicious surveillance around defense
15:07
industry employees' homes and workplaces.
15:10
One European intelligence official told the Financial Times that some of
15:13
the people Russia uses are amateurish and relatively easy to detect.
15:18
Others seem far more capable.
15:20
So
15:21
how are European governments and companies responding?
15:24
In Germany,
15:25
the domestic intelligence agency has stepped up
15:27
its outreach to defense companies and employees,
15:30
in some cases recommending private to close protection teams.
15:34
Several executives speaking anonymously to the FT
15:37
said they had increased their personal security over the past 6 months
15:41
after receiving advice from government agencies
15:44
for at least one defense company.
15:46
The response has been to entirely relocate production sites within Western Europe
15:51
because of threats attributed to Russia on NATO's eastern front.
15:55
When it comes to smaller manufacturers and
15:57
startups already trying to expand production rapidly.
16:00
Protecting employees and securing facilities and hiring close protection teams,
16:05
well,
16:05
that all can become a financial burden,
16:08
and that brings us to what officials believe Russia may be trying to achieve
16:12
even when an assassination never takes place.
16:15
The threat alone can make people reconsider whether doing business with Ukraine
16:20
is worth the risk.
16:22
All right,
16:22
coming up in the back of the brief,
16:24
a car bomb rocks southwestern Colombia
16:27
as rebel groups intensify their attacks
16:29
against government forces.
16:31
More on that
16:32
when we come back.
16:36
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In today's back of the brief,
19:36
a car bomb tore through a toll booth in southwestern Colombia,
19:40
injuring civilians as the
19:42
government's fight against guerrilla groups spills onto a major highway.
19:46
The blast was witnessed Monday along the Pan-American Highway
19:49
near El Bordo in Colombia's southwest Calca department,
19:53
south of the major city of Cali.
19:55
At least 3 civilians were injured.
19:57
The military says the group responsible was the Carlos Patino Front.
20:01
Now these are guerrillas led by former members
20:04
of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia,
20:07
better known as the FAARC,
20:08
FARC.
20:10
Now the FARC was once Colombia's largest guerrilla organization.
20:14
Its 2016 peace agreement with the government
20:17
resulted in an estimated 14,000 fighters
20:20
laying down their weapons.
20:22
But the men leading this group rejected that deal and remained armed.
20:26
Colombian President
20:27
Espriella condemned the bombing,
20:29
saying,
20:29
quote,
20:30
I deplore this terrorist attack.
20:32
Attacking infrastructure harms people,
20:34
truck drivers,
20:34
and all those who need to travel,
20:36
end quote.
20:37
And this was already a deadly stretch in Calca.
20:40
On Friday,
20:41
members of the same Carlos Patino front
20:43
clashed with Colombian soldiers in the municipality of Timblo.
20:48
Then on Saturday,
20:49
a drone attacked a military patrol also in Calca.
20:52
The military blamed that attack on a
20:55
different guerrilla organization known as the ELN.
20:59
Now all of this comes as Colombia's new president moves
21:01
away from negotiations and toward a more direct military confrontation
21:06
with these various groups.
21:08
Espriella took office in August promising a harder line.
21:11
His government has canceled peace talks
21:13
with the country's remaining rebel organizations,
21:16
and he's pledged to intensify operations against them.
21:19
He says his government will treat them as terrorists.
21:22
Now that's a significant change from the approach under his predecessor,
21:26
radical socialist President Gustavo Petro.
21:28
Over the previous 4 years,
21:30
Petro's administration pursued multiple negotiations
21:33
aimed at reaching peace agreements with armed groups.
21:37
Now those talks have been abandoned and some groups
21:40
have responded by stepping up attacks on the military
21:43
or using intimidation
21:45
to show that they still control territory
21:47
and of course the resources that come with that control.
21:51
And that,
21:51
my friends,
21:52
is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday,
21:54
the 13th of October.
21:55
If you have any questions or comments,
21:57
just reach out to me at PDB@hefirstv.com.
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It really is
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just that simple.
22:13
I'm Mike Baker,
22:14
and I'll be back later today
22:16
with the PDB
22:17
afternoon bulletin.
22:18
Until then.
22:19
Stay informed,
22:20
stay safe,
22:21
stay cool.