Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 195 - 1/10/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 195 - 1/10/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:20
Hello, and welcome to episode 195 of the All Systems Go sports
0:26
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:29
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:36
Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an end
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and we got a huge football game here to talk about.
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Obviously, the second-half of the Final Four, Ohio State and
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Texas, the College Football Playoff semifinals, the Cotton
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Bowl. So I got to play for you guys on
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that one. And then of course, we got a
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huge weekend ahead. This is arguably one of the best
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five day stretches of football that you'll ever encounter
1:00
because we've pretty much got playoff games five straight days
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last night. And boy, we got to talk about
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the Irish dancing with the one who brung you.
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But then today, football playoffs in the NFL Saturday,
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Sunday and Monday, and there has been a move in the playoff game
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for Monday because of the wildfires.
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So we have seen a line move change and it kind of answers
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the question of how important and what basically home field
1:22
advantage is worth nowadays. But either way, guys, big
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weekend ahead. Now I have a four pack of sweats
1:28
that I'm excited to share with you.
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I only have one play tonight. I was trying to squeeze out a
1:31
college hoops game. NBANHLI probably could have
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forced it, but I said, you know what, I think we got a good edge
1:37
here on Ohio State, Texas. So my one bet for tonight is the
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best bet on the Buckeyes and the Longhorns.
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And then also going to give you some plays that I've already had
1:46
put in pocket for this weekend. So I put in two plays for
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tomorrow in the NFL as well as a UFC biting in the arena play for
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tomorrow as it's been a been a minute here since we've been
1:58
able to sweat UFC in the Octagon.
2:00
So 4 plays overall and I also want to mention we will be doing
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an early Saturday rhythm live stream.
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So typically we've been doing them every Sunday.
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Sunday sweats. Well, this is a special Saturday
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sweats tomorrow. So we will be right back at at
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11:00 AM Eastern Time, myself and James Santor and we're
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actually going to hit on all the games.
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So it's not just the games for tomorrow, but we'll talk about
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Saturday's game, Sunday's game, and Monday's game.
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So hope to see everyone 11:00 AM Eastern Time bright and early
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tomorrow morning going through all the NFL playoff action and
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probably add a prop bet or two. So even though I'm going to give
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you officially for me and pocket 2 plays for this weekend, there
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could be more. So just stay tuned.
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And any late insights, of course, you can check out the
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sharp reports that I write for visen.com and of course, the
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live stream tomorrow at 11:00 AM on Twitter.
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So looking forward to that. Now looking back toward last
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night, boy, oh boy, the Irish, the heart attack Irish, they
2:54
got, they are gritty. They got a heart of gold and I
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was seeing on Twitter the the game-winning field goal there
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looked like it was going to go wide right.
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And on Twitter everyone was saying Jesus pushed it, pushed
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it down the middle. So that was a lucky hit I would
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say for us because you know, guys, I am a very big proponent
3:10
of late movement. Late movement is very important
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to me because really it's never a guarantee that you're going to
3:15
win if the line is going your way late, but it is a good sign
3:18
that the smart money is in your favor.
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So the reason why I think yesterday was such a sweet win
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on the Irish is that one, we technically were on the wrong
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side. You know, this line flipped.
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You know, I money line Notre Dame at -132 remember when you
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were doing the pod yesterday? At one point they were -2 1/2.
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That got down to 1 1/2 for one. Well, if you guys noticed, that
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actually closed Penn State -1 -, 1 1/2.
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So it was very clear that the late movement was breaking
3:45
toward Penn State. But we said to ourselves a
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couple things. One, we're going to keep a lot
3:50
of the faith here and stick with the rhythm model.
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And boy was last night a great just reason why you should
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download rhythm there. I'm not here to to pat rhythm on
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the back, but they deserve it last night.
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And I hope you guys know at this point I would never recommend
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anything to you that I myself don't see value in.
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So Rhythm, they were proving to me go all the way back to the
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Super Bowl when I was able to meet the team at Rhythm and they
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explain to me their concept and how they come up with these AI
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models and predictions. Well, every single win one or
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every single one win, I should say, no, nothing's, nothing's
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guaranteed. But even though that line, you
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know, was falling back toward Penn State, Rhythm never wavered
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in their prediction. And I tweeted this out at Josh
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under score insights from my Twitter account.
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But Rhythm, if you're mention mentioning, remembering on the
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show yesterday, we said, oh, we're getting nervous.
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This line's going away from Notre Dame.
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It's not a good sign, but one thing we're going to hang our
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hat on, I remember saying this specifically in yesterday's pod,
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is that this is a big rhythm play.
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And why do I mean that or what do I mean by that?
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Rhythm had Notre Dame -3.7, so even the line was going away
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from them. Rhythms, AI back model still
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said this should be about a three-point game and what
5:00
happened? Again, they get down 10.
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Nothing I said, oh, that late smart money.
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I made the wrong bet, but boy did they show some grit.
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Just a great game overall. I mean, again, if you had Penn
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State, I don't blame, but you had the late smart money.
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It looked like they were going to get it done at one point, but
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a huge pick. Late game-winning field goal.
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Again, they win by three. Rhythm said it should be -3.7.
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So Rhythm, great job with that prediction there.
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And if you haven't done it yet, go download the Rhythm app.
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So the Irish was the highlight of the night.
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Dancing with the one who brung us.
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Dancing with Samantha because she asked this prior to the
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dance, Not some more attractive cuter looking girl who wanted
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to, you know, swipe in and take the dance from Samantha.
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No, we danced with one who brung us.
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We did get right state as well in college hoops, but it was a
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losing night overall. 2 and 3 -. 1.58 units.
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The ones that really hurt Denver, The Pioneers, what a
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joke. Smart money and they got
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absolutely rolled on their homecourt.
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That was pathetic. Ohio State really hurt because I
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was a really sharp unranked home fav ranked opponent and they
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pretty much had the lead the entire time.
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This has been happening recently in college basketball where
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basically we're we're making the sharp play and they're winning
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all game and they blow it at the very end.
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I feel like last three or three or four of my losses like that
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that's happened. And then also the Vegas goal of
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the Knights. They they lose 4 nothing on
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their home ice. That one was hurtful because
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they actually scored the first goal.
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They're up one nothing. They call the the the the goal
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back because the guy was offsides by an inch.
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So instead of going up one nothing and you know, hopefully
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you're having a win there, the goal gets called back and then
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they just get rolled from there. So that was that was frustrating
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overall. But either way, guys, Irish man,
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that that was a great hit last night.
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And again, I don't want to brag or, you know, kind of boast too
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much because again, you know, the line was going away from us.
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But I will give us credit for dancing with the one who brung
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us because when you see the line go away from you as the sports
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better, you start to freak out. Then you say, do I do I cash
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out? Do I bet the other side?
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Do I buy it out? What do I do?
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No, we and This is why you stick with your original bet because
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if we lost, we would have deserved to win, but we stayed
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with it. We trusted in a rhythm and the
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Irish, Irish go dancing here. But anyway, guys, let's turn the
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page because we got one player. I got one play for you for
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tonight. And then we'll talk about a huge
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weekend ahead here with some best bets already in pocket.
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So the big one here, Ohio State, Texas, obviously, this is the
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second-half of the Final four. First one was last night.
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Next one here is tonight. This is also the Goodyear Cotton
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Bowl. It'll be played at AT&T Stadium
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in Arlington, TX, home of the Cowboys, Jerry's World.
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So going into it, Ohio State, 12 and 2, the eighth seed they just
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crushed. Oregon, though, 41 to 21, easily
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covered in the quarterfinals as a 2 1/2 point neutral site
7:40
favorite. Meanwhile, Texas, remember that
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game against Arizona State, took Arizona State in the points and
7:45
that one I remember, it was a great game and Arizona State
7:47
probably should have won with scataboo.
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But Texas 13 and two, the five seed they won in overtime 3931
7:54
but did not cover as a 13 1/2 point favorite.
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So what do we see across the market here?
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Well, this line is really kind of going back and forth now.
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The very early opener for this Cotton Bowl was Ohio State, as
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low as -4 1/2. And obviously that line was a
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little bit short because as soon as that 4 1/2 was posted, boom,
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it got blitzed. It got steamed all the way up to
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Ohio State minus 6 1/2. But since that, since that time,
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you've seen a lot of books now get back down to six.
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Now there's some 6 and a halfs out there.
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A lot of books are at six. I even saw one book earlier
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today at 5 1/2. So keep an eye out for dancing
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or for dancing, for shopping for the best line because that's
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going to play a part in my play here.
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But one thing that hasn't changed, again, 4 1/2 up to 6
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1/2, mostly down to six now, one that one thing that hasn't
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changed is that this is a huge public plan.
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The Buckeyes, you walk into any bar in America, all the drunk
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guys at the bar, you know, crushing Bud Lights.
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Yeah, put the put the mortgage on Ohio State.
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The Buckeyes are going to kill them.
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That's the public mindset here. If you look right now at
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DraftKings, 78% of spread bets are on Ohio State.
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At circa 73% of bets are on Ohio State.
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So the first thing that I think about when I see that is hey,
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extremely heavily back game, nationally televised, this mini
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Super Bowl kind of type game betting handle is massive and
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everybody's playing Ohio State. So automatically as a contrarian
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better, I automatically look toward the Longhorns here just
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from the standpoint of, hey, let's bet against all the drunk
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guys at the bar who think this is a shoe in obvious blowout
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Buckeyes win. Then we dig a little bit deeper.
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So not only are the Texas Longhorns very contrarian, which
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I like, I want to bet against the public.
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But then also if you look at Circa specifically, Texas is
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only getting 27% of spread bets, but 68% of spread dollars.
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So I really like that. That means out in Vegas, the
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sharps who bet at Circa and again, Circa prides themselves
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on, you know, taking in smart money, not limiting or, or
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outright refusing you. That's a really good split.
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Only basically a quarter of tickets, but 2/3 of money tells
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me the bigger, sharper wagers in Vegas are taking the points of
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Texas. I also like Texas just in terms
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of a really great buy low sell high play.
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Like the public perception of these teams, which is why you're
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seeing such love for the Buckeyes, is that the Buckeyes
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are, are rolling right now. They're the best team left in
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the tournament. You know, they, they've been
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blowing through their opponents left and right.
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They crush Tennessee, they crush Oregon.
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So people have been playing them, laying the points, have
10:28
been winning. So why, why, why, why stop?
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Or you know, why end something that's working.
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If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But also, I want to sell high in
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that situation. Texas, though, you're really
10:38
buying low on Texas because again, they almost lost to
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Arizona State. They didn't cover the number
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last game. They're lucky to even be in this
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game. So you're kind of buying low on
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Texas while at the same time selling high on Ohio State.
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Now to add a little fuel to the fire here, when I pulled up my
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rhythm app again with the predictions, who again, Rhythm
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was spot on as we started the show mentioning that -3.7 for
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the Irish Rhythm has Texas plus 5.5 S adding up all these
11:09
factors here, you're super contrarian with the Longhorns.
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You've had some buyback on the Longhorns 6 1/2 down to six.
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You have a great low bets, higher dollars bets split at
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Circa and you know, rhythm is telling us, hey, if you can get
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a hook on the 6 1/2, that's a full point of of an edge there
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an advantage over the books. So add it all up here, guys.
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I'm going Texas. I got the Longhorns at plus 6
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1/2 at at -110 juice, which was nice at ESPN bet.
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So shop around, have multiple outs.
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But again, if you're playing Texas, you should be able to
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find a hook out there. A lot of books are at six.
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A lot are at 6 1/2 though, So try to get this close to
11:47
standard juice as you can. But I'm going to go contrarian.
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I'm going to buy low on the Longhorns.
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Let's go Mahoniket McConaughey, Mahonahey McConaughey, hook em.
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All right, all right, all right, plus 6 1/2.
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That's my play, what I would call an old school low bets,
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higher dollars, buy low, sell high contrarian play.
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So I'm going to Longhorns plus 6 1/2.
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Now the Underlook sharp 2. If you want to play the total, I
12:13
would lean under right now. We've seen really big game day
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movement on the under, like the total open as high as 54 1/2.
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When I woke up this morning, it was around 53 1/2, then it got
12:22
to 52 1/2, now it's down to 52 or 51 1/2.
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So there's been pretty consistent movement, especially
12:29
game day movement on this under. And then also you look at bet
12:32
splits, they all look pretty good on the under.
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Again, you have two really good defenses going head to head
12:37
here, but also you have currently a DraftKings 26% bets,
12:42
44% money on the under and at circa only 31% bets, but 95% of
12:49
money on the under. So both those books have a
12:51
really good low bets, higher dollars bets split.
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So I'll lean under here. But my one bet I'm I'm going
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hook them. Let's go Longhorns plus 6 1/2.
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If you're playing Texas with me again, you got to get the hook
13:03
in that one. Now let's look toward tomorrow
13:06
because tomorrow is a huge NFL playoff day and I got a couple
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bets for you in the NFL. So this is a team that I've been
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talking about quite a bit pretty much all week, but I am
13:17
officially on the Houston Texans +3.
13:21
Now Houston. Couple things like about the
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Texans here. Number one is the fact that they
13:27
are very contrarian. So again, it was a year where in
13:30
the regular season chalk had a great year.
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Playing dogs typically is a money making cash cow every
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single year. Not this year for whatever
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reason you didn't see these dogs bark.
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But remember to start the week I gave you a lot of these playoff
13:43
dog systems, which hopefully we can.
13:45
We can claw back some lost units when dogs didn't bark in the
13:48
regular season. Let's get them barking up a
13:50
storm here, hopefully starting tomorrow.
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But reminder, playoff dogs since 2017 are 52 and 34 against the
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spread. 61% Wild card dogs since 2017, specifically this round
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here. 24 and 12, ATS 67%. Now why do I like Houston #1?
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Very contrarian. So everyone loves the Chargers
14:11
here. Chargers are getting 79% of bets
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at DraftKings, 81% of bets at Circa.
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But a lot of reasons to to like Houston in this one.
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One is the fact that even though you're getting 8 out of 10 bets
14:24
on the LA Chargers, this line has stayed the same.
14:27
It's been -3 Chargers still -3 a lot of books have gotten down to
14:31
2 1/2. If you look at all these threes,
14:34
they're juiced up toward the air, toward the Houston side.
14:36
Plus three at -115 So I got, I want to say it was Caesar's, I
14:41
believe maybe it was FanDuel. But anyway, I got the plus 3 -,
14:45
115 with Houston. And my big question here is if
14:49
everyone's loving the Chargers, they open -3 shouldn't they be
14:52
up to -3 1/2 - 4, you know, shouldn't be going, you know, in
14:56
their favor? No, it looks like there's some
14:59
liability here on Houston based on the line freeze and even some
15:02
of that reverse line movement. Now, I really like at Circa,
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only 18% of spread bets are on Houston, but they're getting 48%
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of spread dollars. So nice low bets, higher dollars
15:13
bets split there. And then we do have some
15:15
systems. CJ Stroud has a dog, which I
15:17
like. And then you have some other
15:18
systems here. If you look at a wild card dog
15:22
playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year,
15:24
remember that was four, that's 14 and one against the spread,
15:27
93% since 2017. And then the little cherry on
15:31
top again, rhythm. They're predicting Texans plus
15:34
1.3. So if this is basically a one
15:37
point game based on rhythms, AI model and we can get a three and
15:41
we're not only contrarian, but with the smart money, the line
15:45
freeze liability or RLM, it's a play I got to make on Houston
15:48
guys. So I'm going Houston in pocket.
15:51
I did that late night last night.
15:53
So I'm on Texans +3 for tomorrow.
15:56
Another bet for you. I've been going back and forth
15:59
and I said, you know what? If you're giving me the key
16:01
number, I think we might beat the closing line here.
16:04
I'm going Steelers. I know you probably just puked
16:07
in your mouth because the Steelers haven't looked great.
16:09
Baltimore looks like a wagon, but this is a day to play for
16:12
me. I took Pittsburgh plus 10.
16:14
Now this game open Baltimore at some shops as low as -8 1/2.
16:18
It's gotten all the way up to 10, but all those 10s are a lot
16:23
of them are gone. You're seeing this line at a lot
16:25
of shops get back down to 9 1/2. So when I opened up my app
16:28
today, I said, oh, there's still one book giving me a 10.
16:32
Now it's plus 10 at -115 that's bet MGM.
16:35
So I took Pittsburgh plus 10 at -115.
16:39
Now a couple things like about this one.
16:40
This is not a huge bet percentage play for me.
16:42
Like basically the tickets are 5050 at DraftKings circa.
16:48
Very similar here. So it's not a huge contrarian
16:50
play, but I'll give you a couple reasons to like Pittsburgh.
16:53
One is the fact that you're just kind of buying low in
16:55
Pittsburgh. There's a team that hasn't
16:57
played great down the stretch. Again, Baltimore has been a
17:00
wagon all year long. So it's a little bit buy low,
17:02
sell high. You do have a lot of these
17:04
systems. Mike Tomlin has a dog, Russell
17:06
Wilson has a dog. Also like the fact that a lot of
17:09
these 10s are are are evaporating, like the fact that
17:12
those 10s are falling now down to 9 1/2 tells me that hey, 10s
17:16
probably the key number here in terms of backing Pittsburgh.
17:19
I also like the divisional dog angle.
17:21
Again, two teams, same division play each other quite a bit.
17:24
Pittsburgh beat Baltimore I think.
17:26
Was that the 18 to 16 game? I know it was low scoring
17:28
earlier, they got rolled later in the year against Baltimore.
17:31
But divisional game familiarity, leveling the playing field,
17:34
benefiting the team, getting points, correlative betting.
17:38
So comparing the spread to the total, a lot of people I respect
17:41
really like this under here, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, it opened
17:44
as high as 46. It's down to 43 1/2.
17:46
The last sharp move that I saw though was under 44 1/2.
17:50
So I still lean under, but I just feel like I'm really not
17:53
getting the best of the number anymore.
17:55
But the other thing I like are two more things.
17:58
One, no Zay flowers. Zay Flowers has been ruled out
18:01
for this game for Baltimore. So this is an offensive weapon
18:04
that now Baltimore will not have.
18:06
So one less, you know, shifty quick, you know, wide receiver
18:09
that Pittsburgh will have to cover.
18:11
And then Rhythm. Rhythm's got a couple good
18:14
models here. I have one model that says
18:15
Steelers should be plus 7.1 and another one that says they
18:19
should be plus 6.1. So if you're giving me a
18:22
divisional dog in the postseason, again, dogs and wild
18:26
card dogs are covering nearly 2/3 of the time since 2017.
18:30
And we have a good wide receiver out for Baltimore.
18:33
We got divisional dog dog low total.
18:36
We're getting a 10 again, shop around because still bet MGM is
18:39
giving you the 10. Hey, with a good rhythm edge
18:42
says it should be around a touchdown game.
18:44
I'm going to take the 10 here. Give me Pittsburgh plus ten.
18:48
That is a bet that I put in earlier today.
18:50
Now I do want to mention just a couple thoughts for Sunday's
18:54
game and Monday's game. I haven't bet any of these yet,
18:58
but I am looking in particular at a couple games.
19:01
I'm I'm leaning pretty hard on the under 50 1/2 for Washington
19:07
Tampa Bay. I'm just wondering if I wait
19:09
will it go to 51? There's a couple books that are
19:11
juiced up 50 1/2 over but that's a game where everyone's playing
19:14
the over but good bet splits on the under at DraftKings 25% bets
19:19
49% money only 14% bets 51% money on the under at Circa.
19:25
And you have another system that I love where Wild Card weekend
19:29
under is 56% since 2017 and a high total 47 or more.
19:35
The under is 62% since 2018. But I'm going to wait that thing
19:39
out because I'm thinking maybe we, I don't know, maybe we can
19:42
get a 51. We'll see.
19:44
I could be wrong. And there's one book at 50, so
19:46
it might fall, but I'm just going to give that another day.
19:48
But I am leaning high total under there.
19:52
The one that I wanted to mention though as well, Broncos are
19:56
intriguing to me because if you can still get a nine like a lot
20:00
of books opened I believe it was -8 1/2.
20:03
For Buffalo, it got up to 9 1/2, it's down to 9 or 8 1/2.
20:08
I don't like the splits here actually.
20:11
They're actually not bad. Let me take that back.
20:13
Only 39% of bets are on the Broncos at DraftKings.
20:17
Circo is pretty good. 64% bets, 84% dollars.
20:21
There is a stack going around right now you might see on
20:23
Twitter rookie quarterbacks. So this doesn't bode well for
20:25
Jayden Daniels or Bonex, but it's something like their own 5
20:30
straight up or O15 ATS. Their last five basically rookie
20:34
quarterbacks have not done well in their first playoff game.
20:37
But the Broncos based on rhythm should be about plus 6.3 and if
20:43
you're getting is still a nine out there.
20:45
I'm intrigued a little bit by Denver.
20:46
I haven't played him yet. This would be a dog who missed
20:49
the playoffs the previous year 66%.
20:52
But I'm I'm thinking about Denver.
20:54
They're they're a possibility for me.
20:56
Green Bay Phillies kind of hard because Hertz is going to play,
21:00
but he's been banged up and Jordan loves banged up, but he's
21:03
going to play. So you've seen that line go back
21:05
and forth. That's still around 5 now at
21:08
this point. I do have some dog systems on
21:10
Green Bay. Green Bay is very contrarian,
21:13
27% at DraftKings, 26% but 61% dollars at Circa.
21:19
So stay tuned for that. Maybe Green Bay's a play.
21:21
I, I really liked when Green Bay was 4 1/2 to 10 1/2.
21:24
Now 5, you could go up to 11 anyway, but keep an eye out for
21:27
that one. And then I just wanted to
21:29
mention the Rams game. Now, if you have been wondering,
21:32
hey, what's the worth of, of home field?
21:34
Obviously our hearts go out to everyone in LA who's dealing
21:37
with these fires. It's just just brutal.
21:39
You, you see these interviews with people who have lost their
21:42
homes and they're just like, what am I going to do?
21:43
Like, you know, I built this house, all the memories like,
21:47
and, and it's gone. Like, it's really, really sad.
21:50
But anyway, from a betting standpoint, they move the game.
21:52
So it's not going to be played at Sofi.
21:55
They're going to play at I think what is it called State Farm,
21:57
Arizona and Glendale. So early on, you saw a big move
22:02
toward the Rams. They were plus 2 1/2 down to 1
22:04
1/2 for one. Now the lines back up to 2 1/2
22:07
because it's a neutral site. So basically oddsmakers are
22:10
telling you, you know, home field advantage for for the Rams
22:14
at Sofi. It's about a point.
22:16
You know, it used to be 3 points really post COVID, a lot of the
22:20
data says it's again closer to like two, 1 1/2, two.
22:24
You know, some, there are only a couple stadiums that still are
22:26
around three points like Mile High or Arrowhead.
22:28
But anyway, that kind of tells you a home field.
22:30
It's worth about a point, at least in terms of the Rams.
22:34
What I'm going to do is I'm going to hold out for a three
22:36
here. The game's on Monday, 8 O clock
22:38
on Monday. But right now you're still in a
22:41
contrarian spot with the Rams. Rams are only getting around 35%
22:45
of bets when it comes to when it comes to DraftKings.
22:50
I also put a lot of stock into the playoff experience when it
22:53
comes to the Rams. Obviously McVeigh and and and
22:57
and Stafford compared to Darnold.
22:59
And again, Darnold didn't look good in a big game, quasi
23:02
playoff game against the Lions. So I I do, I do kind of lean the
23:07
experience angle in favor of the Rams.
23:11
And when I look at my rhythm model, it says Rams +2.
23:15
Now that has been adjusted based on the sight change.
23:18
So I'm going to hold out for a three.
23:20
There's actually, I believe there's one book right now where
23:22
you can get plus three at -120 I was intrigued by that.
23:26
But I'm going to hold out for the three again that games on
23:28
Monday. But I'm going to do the, I'm
23:30
going to put the last stock in the experience.
23:33
And again, that 14 and one ATS system dog versus team who
23:36
missed the postseason the previous year.
23:38
So stay tuned for that. And again, if you don't get the
23:40
three, you know, Rams are a great two and half date and half
23:42
teaser. So just some updates there, but
23:45
officially for me, Texans plus three, Steelers plus 10 for
23:48
tomorrow. But again, tune into the live
23:50
stream. Hopefully have some updates
23:52
between now and then. Now to finish up the pod, let's
23:55
go to biting in the arena in the Octagon.
23:59
That's right, we got UFC back in our lives.
24:02
I missed UFC, but let's go to the main event.
24:05
Main event, Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Reboss.
24:08
This is the women's strawweight. Mackenzie Dern's 14 and 5.
24:12
Amanda Reboss, 13 and five. Now for those who need a little
24:16
bit of a refresher, there are different ways to bet UFC.
24:19
Over time. I've come up with a very simple
24:21
model. I'm basically trying to be with
24:23
the sharp money against the public and have an advantage
24:27
with the tail of the tape. So we're looking for fighters
24:29
who are younger, taller, have a longer reach, have a line move
24:33
in their favor and have a good low bets, higher dollars bet
24:35
split. So I landed on Amanda Rebus.
24:40
I'm going Amanda Rebus, I got her at -190 at Caesar's.
24:44
Now. First thing about this one, it's
24:46
not a huge line move made Rebos basically open -190 she's still
24:50
about -190 but I noticed that this is kind of a line freeze
24:55
right now. A bet MGM, 75% of tickets are on
24:59
Mackenzie Dern the dog year. So 75% are taking a trendy dog
25:04
in the main event. So flip it the other way, only
25:07
25% of bets are on Rebos. Contrarian favorite fade the
25:10
trendy dog heavily bet primetime contrarian, you know chalk, but
25:15
she's getting 65% of dollars. So if 75% of bets are on Dern,
25:20
why didn't Rebos fall -190 down to -170 tells me that the makers
25:26
are taking a position here on Rebos.
25:27
Now these fighters, they did face off one time before and
25:32
Rebos beat Mackenzie Dern. So maybe there's a little bit of
25:35
a institutional knowledge advantage in this matchup, but I
25:38
like that line freeze. I like the contrarian. 25% bets,
25:42
65% dollars for Rebus. Then we get to the tail of the
25:46
tape. Now they're both the same age,
25:48
31 years old, nothing there. Dern is 5/3, Rebus is 5/2.
25:53
So Dern is 1 inch taller, but nothing crazy.
25:56
I did notice a big reach advantage.
25:57
I made a Rebus 66 inch reach, 63 inches for Dern.
26:02
So we do have the reach there. Then we get into some stat
26:05
categories which hopefully will benefit Amanda Reboss,
26:08
significant strikes per minute. How much offense do you put out
26:12
there? Again, this is important if it
26:13
goes to the judges because typically they're going to favor
26:16
whoever's, you know, punching more, taking the opponent to the
26:20
mat, kicking more, putting out offense. 4.63 significant
26:26
strikes per minute for Reboss versus 3.43 for Dern.
26:30
So Rebosh dishes, dishes out more punishment, she takes less
26:34
punishment. 3.4 significant strikes per minute versus 4.12
26:38
for Dern. Sure, her significant strike
26:41
defense is better, 61% versus 51%.
26:45
And then takedown, takedown accuracy.
26:48
Rebos is better at taking down her opponent to the mat, 51%
26:52
versus only 16% for Dern. And then take down defense when
26:56
someone tries to take you down. Can you thwart that?
26:59
85% for Rebos only 30% for Mackenzie Dern.
27:03
So it's the main event should be a great, great fight here.
27:06
Great point and we got a contrarian favorite.
27:09
Low bets, higher dollars reach advantage, dish out more
27:12
punishment, better defensively, better takedown, better
27:16
defending takedowns. Add it all up.
27:18
I'm going Amanda Rebus to hopefully win this fight.
27:21
This boy at -190 so that about does it for episode 195 of the
27:28
All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
27:32
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
27:34
start start first by saying thank you.
27:36
Thank you for taking the time out of your busy lives to devote
27:39
30 minutes or so to hopefully, I don't know, put all the things
27:43
in your life that are annoying or stressful.
27:45
You can just let it all you know escape from that hopefully and
27:48
listen to some sharp betting breakdowns.
27:50
Maybe you come with a card of your own and you look where we
27:53
overlap. Maybe you are so busy at no time
27:55
at all to breakdown these games. And hopefully I'm, I'm providing
27:58
you some good insights based on data, facts, money, ercentages,
28:03
not opinion. But anyway, if you enjoy the OD
28:05
and you want to let me know you appreciate the OD, there's one
28:08
thing you can do. It's very simple, very easy.
28:10
Could you give this podcast a five star review?
28:13
It'll take you 2 seconds, but if you're listening on Spotify or
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iTunes, five stars would mean a lot to me.
28:18
Help us to continue to grow the pod.
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You could also click the follow button if there's an option
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there. That way it gets right to your
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library. You're basically you're if you
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have a podcast group, it'll be right there as soon as it drops
28:28
each day. Recommend it to a friend.
28:30
That'll be fantastic as well. Secondly, if you enjoy the style
28:35
of betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrary and
28:37
betting learning how to read the market, having a blueprint.
28:41
Again, this is a a podcast in a way of betting that is based not
28:45
about your heart and what you think or want or hope will
28:47
happen, but what the market is telling you.
28:49
And typically, if you're against the idiots at the bar and you're
28:52
with the, you know, the Warren Buffett's and the, you know, the
28:55
Billy Walters, typically you're going to be you're going to be
28:57
better off. So if this style of betting
28:59
appeals to you and you want to learn more about data-driven
29:02
betting or maybe you have someone in your life who loves
29:04
betting, loses a lot, kind of needs to, you know, be provided
29:08
a way forward, buy my book. I wrote a book, it's called the
29:12
everything Guide to Sports betting.
29:13
You can just search on Amazon. The everything guide to sports
29:16
betting Pick one up for you or friend or buddy or colleague or
29:19
family member or yourself if you just want to support the team.
29:23
But it's got everything I've learned in the industry, how
29:25
lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement,
29:28
how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or
29:31
online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
29:34
management plan. It's all included in the
29:36
Everything guide to sports Betting.
29:38
So pick one up, bring it to the book, and guess what?
29:41
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
29:43
We'll sweat some games together next.
29:46
If if last night wasn't the perfect example of why you
29:48
should download Rhythm, well, guess what -3.7 Irish.
29:52
They win by three. It was a pick em.
29:54
Or even a + 1 Game 1 1/2 Boom. Now is the time to download
29:59
Rhythm and use it as another tool in your toolbox.
30:01
You can just blindly follow the best Rhythm edges.
30:03
You can do your own cap. And like I use Rhythm, it's a
30:06
cherry on top for me. But of course, you can download
30:09
it in the App Store. Tell your friends, you know,
30:11
tell, tell the colleague, buddy, really want rhythm to continue
30:15
to grow because they're doing a great service and a great job.
30:18
But go download rhythm for AI back models and predictions and
30:21
player props for all, basically all sports.
30:24
And then also Juice Reel. I want to shout out Juice Reel
30:27
because Robo Jackson have you guys been following Robo?
30:31
The hardest work in AI bought around but it's unbelievable.
30:34
I'm getting to a point where why don't I just blindly follow Robo
30:36
add it to my card. But Robo Jackson who spits out 2
30:39
plays every day up like 23 units in the last month and it's just
30:43
ridiculous how hot he is. So you can get those best bets
30:46
there if you want to tail them. I can also find the all systems
30:49
go best bets on the social tab. Cost you 499 a week, that's
30:54
$4.99 and you can get all the plays and maybe get them a
30:58
little bit early and hopefully beat some closing lines.
31:00
Support the pod. Think of it as a tip jar.
31:02
If you enjoy the free pod. Again, best thing you can do is
31:05
sign up for the the best bets on juice Reel.
31:08
But then also you're going to get sharp mush indicators,
31:11
arbitrage plays, best sharp for the shop for the best line plays
31:15
all included as well as dollar breakdowns from from juice Reel.
31:19
So it's pretty cool. So download Juice Reel, download
31:21
Rhythm and consider them adding some nice tools to your
31:25
data-driven toolbox. So that about does it for
31:28
episode 195 of the ASG Pod Powered by Rhythm on a big
31:31
Friday. This is the part of the pod
31:33
again where I leave you with two final thoughts.
31:35
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
31:39
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
31:41
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
31:44
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
31:47
neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
31:49
desert where the true grinders get down.
31:51
Or Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
31:54
possible is found at the South Point.
31:56
Or sweat and sharp contrane plays jumping in the stadium
31:58
swimming pool when they catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it
32:01
may be. You're going to walk up to me
32:03
and you're going to show me only 1 ticket from last night.
32:06
The Irish baby, the luck of the Irish, Rudy getting it done.
32:11
What an incredible sweat that was last night.
32:13
You know what I'm proud of? I'm proud that we stuck with our
32:15
original bet. I'm proud that we danced with
32:17
the one who brung us. And again, shout out to Rhythm
32:19
for for really capping that game perfectly.
32:22
The first one's on me, next one's on you.
32:24
We'll post about the book, sweat some, hopefully some winning
32:26
tickets together. As always, parting words up,
32:30
down, treading water, hot, cold, doesn't matter.
32:33
Grinding. It's all about grinding when it
32:35
comes to sports betting. Never getting too high, never
32:38
getting too low. But if we can stay true to the
32:41
model, bet games with our head and not our heart, against the
32:44
public with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays with the house,
32:47
get that CLV. If we can do that long term,
32:50
we're going to be successful sports betters.
32:52
So have a great weekend guys. Should be a fantastic weekend.
32:55
Football left and right, playoffs are here.
32:58
Let's see if we can cash some tickets and have a good weekend.
33:02
But I'll see you guys bright and early. 11:00 AM Eastern Time
33:04
tomorrow for the Rhythm Saturday live stream.
33:07
And between now and then, let's see if we can cash some tickets.
33:10
But as always, guys, have a great Friday, have an even
33:13
better weekend. And hopefully again, we can we
33:15
can post some winners here. But good luck and I'll see you
33:18
back on Monday for episode 196 of the All Systems Go Sports
33:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
33:25
Good luck everybody, enjoy the sweats.