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Reds/Mets Orioles/Rays Astros/Mariners MLB Best Bets Friday 7/18/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: good day at all.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season, Man with.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Wookends slump that I'm on.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. I've reached a new pink.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man, I don't
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: March eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: know what data is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody, It's Toad.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I'm back with you for better off Dead Friday. I
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: believe everything's a blur, baby. I think it's Friday, July eighteenth.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: We're coming back from the Major League Baseball All Star Break.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Of course, hopefully you guys enjoyed the All Star festivities
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: or just didn't watch them at all, which is probably
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: more recommended. I would say we went into the All
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Star Break pretty hot on this show, by the way,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: six and one run. I believe almost all of it
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: in baseball, with one WNBA play mixed in there as well.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I believe the last time I spoke with you, guys,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I believe was.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: When was that?
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: That was Sunday? Right, Sunday was the last day of
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Major League Baseball action. I did not give you guys
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: any WNBA plays during the break, didn't give out any
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: plays at all. I actually handicapped the WNBA. Didn't feel
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: like WNBA alone was enough to justify doing the show,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: so I just kind of I didn't do it, and
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I did not have any plays. I didn't like any
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: of the WNBA stuff really though, so I just kind
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: of avoided it completely. Sunday, finishing off the MLB plays
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: that I gave out on the show. It was a
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: one in one day after I believe I went five
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: to zero with the prior two days Detroit Tigers. They
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: could have won that game on Sunday. Man, I thought
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: they were gonna potentially avoid the sweep there and it
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: was I believe they were winning the game or early
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: two to notp thing.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: They blew the lead.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: They had a tide game later in the game, and
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: then it just unraveled against the bullpens man and they
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: wound up losing eight to four. But the game is
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a lot closer in that final. And then speaking of
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: close games, we did have a winner on Sunday as
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: well on the Philadelphia Phillies. It was close, they won
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: two to one, but they did get there. It was
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: a winner, I mean the full game handicap, but I
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: don't know if it was necessarily completely accurate, but it
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: was pretty good, good enough, and then as far as
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball stuff, I did put out a
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: video on Instagram, just because I figured you can follow
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: me on Instagram. By the way, off dead better better
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: off dead on Instagram. Maybe I put out a home
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: run derby video. I did not recommend actually betting the
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: home run derby. I don't really recommend that because it's
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: such a crapshoot. But man, I had that thing wrong.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Cal Rawley he's just a beast man, the big dumper.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: He was dumping home runs into the stands there and
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: he wound up winning the whole thing, which I did
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: not expect. I thought it was going to be James
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Wood maybe or on a l cruise. Those are the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: guys kind of liked. The cruise was a little bit
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: injured going into the break. But as I mentioned on
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: my video, those two guys had the rest. What I
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: didn't what I really didn't like about Raleigh and a
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: couple of the other guys.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Like Jazz chisholm Uh.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: These guys had like their fathers and stepfathers pitching to them,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: and that just means they're not necessarily taking the thing seriously,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: like they just want to have fun. Because if you
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: have a guy who you're not familiar with having pitched
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: to you, and that guy's not like used to throwing
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: batting practice, it tends to not be as good in
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the home run derby man because you need somebody to
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: get into a groove basically, so you really want like
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: a guy who's actually the team's batting practice pitcher to
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: actually get you there. Usually, and that was the case
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: with a lot of the other guys that were in there,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: but Raleigh had his father, Jazz, Chism had his stepfather
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Chisholm was terrible and laughably bad, but Raleigh won the
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: whole thing. So but generally that's the way you want
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: to handicap that. And then the All Star Game wound
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: up being a tie. And usually the All Star Game
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: recently has been scoring since the steroid era has not
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: been in effect anymore, but this was a six to
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: sixth tie, which I don't even understand. I think we're
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: past the era where they All Star winner determines who
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: hosts the World Series, because I think that was a
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: thing at one point, but now I think it's back
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: to being the team with the better record, which I
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: think is the way that it should be. Screw the
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: All Star Game meaning anything, Man, it really doesn't mean anything. Yeah,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: So that's all I have to say about that, really, JR.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: What's up? Man? What thing with Leonarda? I went to her.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: She did a set in the Boston area at a
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: secret location after she was canceled from another location where
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: she was originally gonna actually do the comedy show in Boston.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Everybody's getting canceled now, man.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: She still packed the place that she actually did the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: event at, though, even though she had to send out
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: the location as like a secret thing, a message to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: everybody that bought tickets and whatever.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So I went to that. It was it was
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: an awesome show. Man.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: She had a lineup of other canceled comedians. They were
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: all good comedians. It was a great lineup of comics. Man,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: and Leonarda killed it again. She decided to do a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: dating game part of it, where she had some single
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: woman who might have been the only single woman in
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: the audience get up there and she asked for single
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: men to get up there to compete to win a
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: date with her at the end of the night.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: So I was like, fuck, yeah, all right, I'll do it.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: It was between me and two other guys, but the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the audience actually kind of decided based on applause who
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the winner was going to be, and I came in
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: second to the first guy that went up there. Everybody
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: just kind of liked the first guy because he was
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: like this older plumber dude was he was like sort
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: of the real man of us three. It was him
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: versus me versus neck tattoo guy. If you guys saw
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: that video. So I thought I had a nice shot
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: though with the with the ukulele cover Kanye shout out
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: there that Linharda gave me.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: It was. I was not a plant, by the way.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: I was actually at the show and I just happened
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: to be one of the guys that got called up
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: because not many people wanted to get called up, and
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: she just happens to know who I am, obviously, and
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: she knew I was gonna be there.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, it was not planned that I
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: was gonna be one.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Of those guys. Like I actually was like, all right,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I'll do it out of the audience. I had no
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: idea she was gonna be doing that. But yes, I
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: did not win. And then I think the the guy
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: that did win, I don't think he even went on
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a date with the woman. Uh so maybe she's because
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: she was originally a lesbian. Maybe she's just a lesbian again. Man.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's uh, that's just the case, Andrew, what's up?
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Man?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So I don't know if there's anything else to
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: say about that. But you're not here for this crap, right, Well,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: maybe you are. Maybe you want to hear me bullshit.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but we're here for talking about baseball.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: And you know, with baseball season, I autistically break down
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: every single baseball game, and I think I'm gonna maybe
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: do things a little little bit differently this time. We
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: have no WNBA today, by the way, because WNBA is
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: going into their All Star break and I think Caitlyn
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Clark is not playing in it, maybe because she's hurting whatever.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: The league seems to just really hate her guts. Man,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: So I don't really know what the deals with that.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out three plays.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Here's what I'm gonna do. Man, I'm gonna change the
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: format slightly. I'm gonna break down every baseball game. Still,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I think maybe try to do it a little bit
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: faster because it does take a.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: Lot of time.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out the my actual bets in a
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: best bet segment at the end, and I'm gonna break
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: down everything else as we go as well.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Nancy, what's up on, Nancy?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I believe I'm going to send out your gimp mask
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: that you won, the gimp mask from Brohem and Grove.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna send it out today. I'll get around to
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: it finally, so that will be headed your way as
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: of today. It shouldn't take that long to get over there,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think, but I will be sending.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: That out today, I believe. All right, Yeah, Baseball.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how I want to start this, man,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: because I said I'm gonna change the format up a
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: little bit, which I am. So we're gonna go into
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the rundown segment first, man, I'm calling it the rundown.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be I have some artwork, now, isn't
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: that great? It's some toad artwork here the Rundown. We're
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: gonna run down all the baseball games that I decide
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: to want to talk about that are not my bets.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: At least.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: First game up is not gonna be a bet of
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: mine again. I'm gonna push all my bets off to
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: the end of the show and make you guys wait
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: for the good stuff. Man, it's like skipping the pussy.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: We're skipping the bets. You gotta build the anticipation here.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: The first game up is an after noon game, which
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: is the only afternoon game of the day, and of
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: course it's at Wrigley Field and it involves my Boston
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. It's the Red Sox at the Cubs. I
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: really feel they do a lot of after noon games there.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: This is kind of the thing. Oh, you wanted to
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: know what was going on with the Leonardo thing? Yeah, okay, yes,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: sir j R. Oh is JC in here? Is he
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: gonna see that? Is it a surprise? Well, I guess
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: it was a surprise. If he sees the chat at all,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: you're gonna blow it for him. So interesting, that's right.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: I think you said you told me that that you
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: were gonna send it to him or one hundred different people.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: You're gonna cut it up into one hundred different pieces,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: because JC is one hundred different people.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Anyway.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Actually, first hold on, let me I'll talk about sort
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: of handicapping strategy coming out of the All Star break
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: because these teams have been off for almost a week now, right.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So the way that I tend to look at this
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: is I kind of look at it like an NFL buy,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: where you tend to want to generally you kind of
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: want to look to fade teams that were really hot
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: going into the All Star break because the All Star break.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Can kind of kill that team's momentum.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: And you also might want to look to play on
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: teams that were doing badly going into the All Star
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: break because they might be able to break break the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: slump basically in the slump having that All Star break.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: And then I would also say that you might want
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: to fade like individual players, though this is more of
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: a prop market thing, especially when it comes to hitting,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: but you might want to fade like individual players they
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: did something in the All Star Game, like last year,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: for instance, like you had the All Star Game MVP
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: was Jaron Duran, so it might have made sense to
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: fade him coming out of the All Star break in
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the first couple of games. I would say as far
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: as the pitching is concerned, it might be a bigger
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: angle to use where if you have starting pitching, especially
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers that made their first All Star Game, this year,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: and this Tanner Hawk was like the poster boy of
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: this last year. You have a young guy who pitches
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: really well first half, they make the All Star team.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I believe he pitched as well in the All Star Game,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. After that, they can tend to
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: have like a big drop off, And it was ridiculous
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: with Hout last year. So a lot of times I
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: tend to want to look to fade those young pitchers
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: that had their first All Star appearance, at least in
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: their first start coming out of that All Star appearance.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of the way that I look at it.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: And then of course you got to look at how
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: having an extra break is going to affect these starts
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: new pictures, although really these pictures are only pitching with
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: like a day or two extra rest for the most part,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: so it's not really gonna affect most starters that much. Really,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I would say it might affect young starters again, more
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: that they're having their schedules shifting around, and we still
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: have a few games with undecided starting pitchers, so it's
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be kind of hard to handicap some of these.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: And I think it's.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Actually more than what we see on this list here.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: I think there is one other game where there's an
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: undecided pitcher as well. Anyway, Red Sox Cubs Lucas Gilido
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the picture for the Red Sox in
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: this game. He started to pitch actually pretty well for
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox Giledo. By the way, he is from
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: an acting family, and I found out that his grandfather
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: actually was in Seinfeld. I guess his grandfather played I
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: want to say, like one of Jerry's father's friends or
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: something like that, or yeah, I forget, I would have
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: to go look it up again. But his grandfather was
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: some small role in like a couple of Seinefeld episodes.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Something like that. I would have to go look it up.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: But Giulido is from not very well known acting family.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: But he's not acting anymore. Man.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: He's been pitching pretty well recently. In his last six starts,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I believe he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: those starts. The Red Sox have actually won five of
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: those six starts, so he has been really in good
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: form recently. So he's not necessarily a guy who want
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: to fade right now. A lot of those starts are
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: against really bad offenses, but still I think you had
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: to give him credit for pitching well over that span,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: racking up a lot of strikeouts as well. He has
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: been better on the road too, with a one point
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: nine to five ROADIRA, which bodes decently well for this
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs. He's also had okay numbers in thirty
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: four career at bats. They only have a two thirty
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: five batting average against him, little bit higher seven forty
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: eight ohps. But Lucas Gilito has done fairly well against
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the Cubs in his past, and he's going up against
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Colin Ray here. Ray a guy that I'm not really
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: a fan of, as you know if you watch my show.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I think he's I think he's uh.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: He's putting up some false numbers pretty much, three point
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: nine one ERA, one point.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Two to six WHIP on the season.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: He's been worse at home actually, a four point one
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: three ERA. So Gilito probably has the advantage of the split.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: So although Ray actually went into the All Star Break
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: pitching pretty well as well, with the Cubs winning five
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: of his last six games as well, I believe is
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: what that is. He only allowed one er and run
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: each in his last two outings, so he pitched pretty
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: well as well, though his strikeout rate is not as
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: high as Gilito's, so that makes me like Ray a
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: little bit less because he doesn't strike guys out. He
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: has mediocre numbers against the Red Sox and twenty at
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: bats a two fifty average, eight eighteen ops, which is
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit higher than you'd like to see a
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: lot of it, just because it's a small sample size
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: of Trevor Story has a home run off him.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: So this is a tough game to handicap.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Man. I mean, to me, it looks like you might
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: be seeing maybe pitching early on. And what I will
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: say is coming out of the All Star break, I
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: actually tend to lean towards unders as well, even though
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I kind of just generally lean towards a lot of
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: unders anyway, calling me the undertaker if you want, just
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: because the public tends to want to go more towards overs.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: So I think you actually.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Find a little bit more value just inherently because of that.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: On unders slightly more value. But coming out of the
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: All Star break, I think you're gonna have hitters that
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit cold, and they have to
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: kind of get used to hitting again, so they might
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: come in a little bit out of form here. And
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: of course the first game, very first game out of
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the All Star Break, all the bullpens are rested, so
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: it makes it a lot more conducive to the under
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I would say, in that first game coming out of
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the All Star breaks, that's what you want to look
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: at here. I do have the bullpens up here, the
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and the Cubs actually both after Rocky starts
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: for their bullpens. The bullpens have actually been pitching well recently.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: They actually work their way into the top like several
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: bullpens era wise on the season, So we actually have
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: good bullpens here as well. So I'm thinking under might
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: be the better lean in this one. I mean, certainly
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna recommend to play on that, but the
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: money is actually agreeing with me on that. Total down
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: from eight and a half to eight basically fifty four
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over sixty seven percent of
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: cash on the under stacks. What's up, man, Yeah, the Undertaker,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that is correct. Thanks for hanging out, everybody. White Sox
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh probably the ugliest game of the day where you
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: have just two atrocious offenses. Although, by the way, if
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: you like the pitching in that Red Sox Chicago game,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: you do have to slightly worry about the fact that
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: both offenses are really good. But you know me, I
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: like defense over offense, and I do tend to weigh
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: pitching above hitting. So that's just the way that it is.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: So under is the lead in that one White Sox Pittsburgh.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: These teams, I mean, they can't hit man. They have
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: terrible offenses. Starting pitching. Jonathan Cannon is pitching for the
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: White Sox here. He's been very mediocre at best, four
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: point four to four ERA, one point four to four whip,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: not good whip at all, worst on the road four
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: point nine to seven ROADRA. He was okay going into
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the All Star Break. The White Sox won his last
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: three starts. His last two starts, he went at least
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: five innings in both and had torn runs allowed a piece.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: But it was against Colorado and Cleveland, two very weak offenses,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: and he only had a six to five strike out
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, so I don't know if he was exactly good,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: although I will say that maybe having a little bit
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: of an extra break might help. Like a picture that's
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: out of form, come back into form, and it might
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: actually hurt a picture that's in good form a little
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: bit so recent forum, you might have to weigh a
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: little bit less coming out of that All Star break,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: but maybe not too much less, because still you're looking
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: at guys that are mostly on like somewhere between like
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: seven to ten days of rest instead of the usual
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: like six or so, which isn't really that much more.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Cannon against Pittsburgh actually does have pretty good numbers of
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: very small sixteen at bat sample size though, two fifty
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: batting average sixty nine ops, so not terrible numbers for Cannon.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Bailey Falter, who actually has been
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: pretty good for the Pirates this year three point seven
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: to nine ERA, one point two whip four point four
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: or excuse three point twenty five home y ra, so
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: he actually has some pretty good at home. He was
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: really struggling heading into the All Star breakdomb Man he
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: allowed three earned runs a piece and four of his
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: last five starts, and the other start he only went
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: one to two thirds innings against the Mets, so he
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: was not pitching well. He failed to go five innings
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: in his last start, his last two starts. He was
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: in Seattle, which is a pitcher friendly park and facing
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: the Royals who are a very weak offense.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: He needed poorly in both starts.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Gave up five home runs over those two starts, so
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: he really fell apart in those last two starts. But
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: maybe the extra break here will kind of help him
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: out a little bit. But man, he was in bad
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: form going into the All Star break against the White
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Sox though they're only one for seventeen off in lifetime
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: for an fifty nine average two seventy six ops, so
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: the White Socks.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Have not hit him well.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: So again, I mean, to me, looks like we might
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: be looking towards another under here, although I know you
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: have to worry about the bullpends being pretty bad, although
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: they are rested, so I tend to think maybe that
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: you want to go if you want want to go
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: with an under in one of these games with totally
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: rested bullpens, I think maybe still going full game isn't
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: out of the question here, even if they are bad bullpens, because.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: They at least have their best relievers available.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: The money coming in on the over though a little
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: bit jacking this up from eight to eight and a half,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: seventy two percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of cash
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: on the over.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Not sure I really see that though.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, Cannon is not a very good pitcher,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: but we have weak offenses here, man, and the pictures
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: aren't that familiar to the hitters, and the hitters haven't
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: done that well against them, and again the hitters.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: Might be cold. So it's the way I look at
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: that game.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: We have Anaheim at Philadelphia, but we don't know who
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's starting pitcher is gonna be. Philadelphia has jesus Lozardo
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: listed as the starting pitcher here. He's really kind of
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: fallen off. After he had a great start to the season.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: You kind of thought that maybe he wouldn't be able
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: to keep that up. I didn't expect him to have
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: this much of a drop off, but he's really dropped
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: off to the point where now he has a four
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: point one four ERA but a one point four to
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: one whip, which is quite awful. He's being worse at
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: home as well, with a four point five to three ERA.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: He did have a good start.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: On his last start before the break, he had seven
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: strikeouts in a seven inning shutout against the Giants, one walk,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: three hits a lout of the Giants, not a good offense,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: but he did have a nice bounce back start there,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: so it could mean he is coming back into for
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: him a little bit. He does have really good numbers
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim in thirty six career bats, one ninety four
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: batting average, six fifty four ohps allowed. Not bad numbers there,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: So I think Lozarno might do okay in this game.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: But we don't know who Anaheim is gonna have as
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: a starting pitcher. Man Anaheim, we know their bullpen's really bad.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's bullpen also really bad. But if you like Philadelphia
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: in this game, which I do, think they're gonna have
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge here, they you're gonna be laying
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: a big price for that. They're looking at like they're
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: in the minus two hundred hundred price range for the
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: money line on the full game here. So it's very
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: difficult to even tell you what I think you should
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: do with this game at all.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, like a Philadelphia run line maybe isn't out
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: of the question, but I mean, this is a game
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: that would be one of the least betable games in
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: my opinion, especially not even knowing who the starter is
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be San Diego at Washington. I'm gonna make sure
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: what my plays are here because I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: save my plays until the end, man, which means I'm
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: gonna because I'm gonna skip those games. You know which
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: game's gonna have plays on? San Diego at Washington. Oh,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: and I will mention, of course you do want to
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: look at which teams are hot going into the All
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Star Break, but I don't think, well, the Red Sox
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: are actually the team that was really hot going into
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: the All Star breaks. So I should have mentioned that
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox won. How many games is that in
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: a row? I think ten or eleven games in a
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: row going into the All Star break. So the All
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Star Break might hurt the Red Sox momentum a little bit.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: So that is something to keep in mind in that
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Red Sox game there, I'll just point out, like as
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: far as the side is concerned in that game, because
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: people like sides more than totals, especially in a game
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: like this. The money is actually coming in on the
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Cubs in that game for one to twenty five to
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: one twenty nine sixty three percent of the tickets. But
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of the cash, and I wouldn't really
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: disagree with that, although I like Giolito overay though, so
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I don't love that. But if you look at the
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: situation where the Red Sox might have that great momentum
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: that they had just completely wiped out by the All
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Star Break, yeah, I mean I could see that hurting
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox a bit in that game. So generally
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: that's kind of a thing you want to look at
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: San Diego at Washington. I mean, Washington was one of
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the teams that went into the All Star Break ice cold.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: But they are a really bad team too. They lost
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: four games going into the All Star Break, they lost
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: eight of their last nine. But they are just not
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: a good team. They have a terrible bullpen. They have
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: a bad offense, huge bullpen advantage in this game for
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: San Diego.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: Uh, do we trust Dylan Ceas in this game?
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Though? I don't know, man, because Ceas is really seen
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: a drop off after he was really good last year
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: and he's been not so good this year. Four point
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: eight eight ERA one point three to three whip not
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: good and he's been really bad on the road six
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: point two seven road ERA, which should give you some
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: concerns with Cease and the fact that he gave up
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: seven home runs in his last three outings prior to
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: the All Star break.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: That's bad as well.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Giving up ten runs in the last twelve innings over
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the last two starts. Granted it was against Philadelphia and Arizona,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: and he is stepping way down in class to face
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not very good Washington team. And he did also
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: have a twelve to three strikeout walk ratio over those
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: two starts, which that indicates that his command was still there,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: but he was giving up a lot of hard contact.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good against Washington though in seventy career
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: bats a one to eighty six average allowed six oh
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: five ops. The one really bad thing those in nineteen
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: to twelve strike out walk ratio is not good, and
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: that has way too many walks. Nathaniel Lowe, by the way,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for player props, is five for eleven
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: off him with two home runs and five and no strikeouts.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: So he does hit Cease quite well, and he's part
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: of the reason why Seas has a really bad start
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio against them, although overall I think Seas
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: should do better in this game, I think having that
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: extra time off stepping down in class if he is
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: a bad Washington team that doesn't typically do that well
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: against him, I think he might help him a little bit.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Washington has Michael Saraka pitching.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Not a good era for him, five point three to
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: five rail those one point one to six whip kind
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: of indicates that he's not all bad. His ERA is
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: above five both home and away, so that's not good.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: His last start, he had maybe a little bit of
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: a bounce back because two starts ago he got rocked
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: by the Red Sox for seven or in runs that
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have really become kind of an offensive force.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Their offense has become quite good.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: His start after that, he still only went four innings
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: against Saint Louis, but he only allowed torn runs. That
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: was a little bit better, although he was really inefficient
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: with his pitches in that start. Washington has still lost
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: six straight starts for so probably not good. And we
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: are looking at San Diego probably having an offensive edge
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: in this game as well. They're hitting it just generally
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: is better than Washington. It's but Soroka actually does have
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: good numbers against San Diego in twenty four career at
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: bats two aweight batting average five to nineteen ops.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: So what do we want to do with this game?
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: I mean an under first five innings maybe, because if
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: you want to go with an under, you do not
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with Washington's terrible bullpen man even
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: though yes they are arrested, but their bullpen is so bad.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: I brought it up on MLB dot Com this time.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: I think this is just a better view of it.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Washington has the absolute worst bullpen in Major League Baseball,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: with a five point eight eight bullpen YAH ran the season,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: So you really, I think, don't want to involve their bullpen.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: The money does look like it's coming in on the under,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: down from eight and a half to eight.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Seventy one percent of the.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Tickets on the over, but eighty four percent of the
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: couch in the under. I would look under first five innings.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: I think maybe both starting pitchers could deal in this
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: game a little bit. I once it gets to the bullpens, though,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: I would not really want to risk it with Well
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: having washed its bullpen in there San Francisco at Toronto.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Toronto in this game, And I
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: will say this almost made being a play for me
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: with Toronto. I was definitely looking to Toronto here potentially
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: a play on Toronto. This is the last one that
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: I left off of the actual card. Here would be
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: like a Toronto money line player. Maybe you want to
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: go run line or split the bet.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: Between the two.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: But Toronto, they were on a hot streak, and then
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: their hot streak ended and they went into the All
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Star Break on a bad note, losing two games to
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the A's going into the All Star Break, and even
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: though yes, this is technically a return home spot, I
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: don't really look at that when it's an All Star
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: break in the middle there, man, because of course these
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: guys are on a break, man, so they've already gotten home.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: They've already done what they need to do at home.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Because in the middle of the season, I always like
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: to look to fade teams that return from a long
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: road trip because they have to get back to family life,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: they have to maybe adjust to a new time zone.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: They have stuff to do, and they don't have a
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: whole lot of time to do it. But because they
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: had the whole All Star break pretty much to do that,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's gonna.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Be less of a factor here.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: So I don't really factor the return home spot in
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: coming out of the All Star Break, so I do
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: lean to Toronto in this game. We are looking at
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco having a great bullpen, the best bullpen in baseball,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: but Toronto's not even that far behind. Toronto's in the
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: top like ten bullpens with bullpen y RA, so they've
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: been doing pretty well as well, so the bullpen's not
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: really a huge disparity there.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: San Francisco also has Justin Verlander on the mound.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: He's still out there trying to do his thing, man,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if we could really trust him
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: at this point. He still doesn't have a win on
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the season, although part of that is because the Giants
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: have a really really bad offense, so that's not helping
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: him out. But he has a four point seven e
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: RA one point four to whip bad numbers for him.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: On the road as well, with a four point nine
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: to nine ERA. Did pick it up a little bit
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: going to the All Star Break, at least having a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: twelve to one strikeout walk ratio, although he did get
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: rocked at the A's Stadium. But I might give him
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: a pass for that the fact that he gave up
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: six runs there, because that is a tough stadium for
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: pitchers to pitch in.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: It's a Triple A stadium.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: He bounce back nicely in a six inning performance only
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: a lining two earned runs seven, zero strike out walk
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: ratio against a good Philadelphia offense, So I think Verlander
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: is at least not pitching that badly. For the most part,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: he hasn't allowed aside from that A's game, he didn't
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: allow more than three earned runs in a start going
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: all the way back to April, so Verlander is at
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: least still kind of pitching respectably.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Even though he's not really going that deep into games.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: His numbers against the Jays or mediocre and forty at
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: bats two to seventy five, batting average seven to fifty
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: one oh ps, although it's been George Springer doing the
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: majority of the damage six for sixteen, two home runs,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: So if you want to look for player props again,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: maybe you want to look for Springer. And I always
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: recommend hits plus runs plus rb eyes because that way,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: if you have a walk, you can still potentially get
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: a run or an RBI out of it. He's going
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: up against Chris Bassett, who is having a season that's
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit all over the place. Four point one
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: two ERA, one point three to five whip, although he
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: does have nine more wins than Verlanders does because he
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: has been getting run support behind him. He's been really
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: good at home though, two point eight one home ERA
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: for Bassett. And the thing that I kind of like
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: about Bassett here, I mean, he was pitching okay in
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: his last few starts coming into the All Star break.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: He had a five and two third inning, nine strikeout
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: performance against the Yankees, which is pretty solid. He gave
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: up three runs, did walk three guys with the Yankees
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: are a formidable offense, so I would say that's a
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: good start. And then he did have a six inning,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: one run performance against the White Sox after that, which
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: is good. The White Sox are a bad offense, though,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: and he only struck out one guy in that game,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: so that's a little bit of a concern that the
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: strike gun numbers went way down. But the thing that
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: I do like about Bassett is that actually gave him
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: a tune up, because I think what they realize is,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: oh shit, he pitched on the eighth. He's next probably
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: gonna pitch ten days from now, which is the case
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: on the eighteenth here. So I think what Toronto decided
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: to do is try to keep him on schedule by
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: actually having him warm them up and get into a
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: game only for an inning, but have him pitch basically
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: on the schedule that he would pitch as a starter anyway.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: So they actually gave him a start to kind of
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: help him remain on schedule, or didn't give him a start,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: but they gave him an inning against the A's on
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: schedule there was Was that a starter or did he
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: come in in relief?
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: I'm not even sure. Let me look at that.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: He came in in relief. Yeah, Barrios made the start
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: in that game. So I still like that though, because Bassett,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: they're keeping him on track by giving him that appearance there,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: So that keeps him on schedule a little bit.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Which these pictures even.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Though I know Bassett is a veteran so he's used
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: to all this, but it keeps keeping the pitcher on
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: schedules because they are creatures who haven't up against the Giants.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: He's been fairly good in his career.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: In sixty four at bats, twenty to six, strike, a walk,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: ratio is really nice.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: All three home runs he's.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Allowed from Devers, so yeah, that does help San Francisco.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: They have Devers now who played in Bassett's division and
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: is pretty familiar with him, but he's only one bat
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: in the lineup, man, so if Bassett is able to
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: pitch around him, the rest of San Francisco's lineup isn't
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: good anyway. But they don't do well against Bassett, and
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: even including Devers, they have a two to thirty four
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: average seven to twenty two ohps against Bassett.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: So I lean to.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Toronto here man, even though I know San Francisco actually
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: didn't go into the All Star Break in a good
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: note either. They actually lost I think two games to
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers going into the All Star Break, but I
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: think Toronto it's pretty embarrassing losing.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: To the A's like that.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I think this sets up a lot better for Toronto,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: and the money seems to agree with me. It's up
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: for minus one thirty eight to minus one forty one
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of tickets on Toronto. Toronto's actually getting
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the public action because they're record is so good after
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: that hot streaking. Well, I don't think Toronto is as
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: good as they looked recently. I still think that they're
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: good enough to win in a spot like this, with
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: a matchup like this, ninety six percent of the cash
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: also on Toronto, and obviously Toronto has a fairly big
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: offensive edge over San Francisco. I think they have the
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge, and I think San Francisco only has
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: a slight bullpen edge here. All right, we're gonna skip
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: that next game there. We'll go to Kansas City and Miami,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: which is another game. It's difficult to gauge because we
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: don't know who Kansas City starter is gonna be in
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: this game, so it's very difficult to figure out what
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is gonna do here.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Kansas City does have the better of the two bullpens.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Don't trust Miami's bullpen, and I don't know if we
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: trust Miami's starter.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: I'll contra here.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Miami did go into the All Star Break hot again,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: winning two games against Baltimore.
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: So Miami was playing fairly.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Good baseball as of late headed towards the All Star break,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: but the All Star Break might kind of hurt their momentum.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Miami is still not a very good team. All contra
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: still really has not come back from those injury issues. Man.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: He used to be like a cy young candidate, and
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: it's very sad what happened to him, because he just
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: isn't there. I guess his velocity seems like it is
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: basically back, but his command is just not good. His
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: numbers are overall really bad. Seven point two to two ERA,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: one point four to eight whip. I mean, he has
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: such a good history in the past, and he's such
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: a name, and he has such talent that I think
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: they're leaving him in the rotation and hoping that he's
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: gonna come back at some point. But I don't know, Man,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: that one point four to eight whip is really bad.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: He's been better at home, at least with a five
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: point three home RA, which is still not even good.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: He was pretty bad in his last three starts going
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: into the All Star break two though, along five or
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: more runs at all three starts. I did have a
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: twelve to three strike a walk ratio, which wasn't that bad,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: but overall those are not good starts.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: He was getting rocked, giving up way too much hard contact.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: He's stepping down in class a little bit facing a
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: weak Kansas City offense here after facing Arizona Milwaukee and
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: since an atte But Kansas City, I mean, they do
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: okay against some all though it's only fourteen at bats
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: and ten of them are India, So really Kansas City
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: has a lot of guys that are unfamiliar with them,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: but the guys that have hit against them before I
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: have a two eighty six average seven to sixty nine ops.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe because it's such a small sample size,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: though maybe you want to put more stock into the
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: fact that Kansas City is a bad offense and they
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: haven't seen ol Contra before, so maybe al Contra will
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: actually do a little bit better in this game. We
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: don't know who Kansas City is gonna throw out there
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: again for their starters. That makes this hard to figure
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: out what's gonna happen in this game. Based on what
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: ESPN is saying here, it looks like Kansas City is
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: going to be a small road favorite, which even that
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: looks a little bit strange because the Royals are below
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: five hundred, So it might look like there might be
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: some value taking Miami as a home underdog to the like.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: To the public, they might perceive that, but the public
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: might not even be wrong in that case to mean,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: because if you're looking at the Royals maybe trying to
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: go with a bullpen game or having some spots start,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: maybe the little aside on one of their actual starters
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: to go here or though, because they're coming out of
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the All Star breaks, so all their starters are gonna
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: be pretty much ready to go coming into this one.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, but Miami at least you
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: kind of know what you're gonna get as far as
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: who their starter is gonna be. But I guess you
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: don't know what you're gonna get out of him. So
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: it is a difficult game to handicap. A's at Cleveland
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: interesting matchup because he seems played not that long ago.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure at the as Yeah, probably about a
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: month ago, maybe a little bit over a month ago.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: So I think we're looking at two starters that actually
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: were just seen by these opposing lineups. So the starters
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of a disadvantage because the
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: offenses might be a little bit familiar with them.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland went into the All Star Break on a high note.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: They'd swept Houston and then they took three out of
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: four from the White Sox. I know it's not impressive
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: beating the White Sox. Cleveland is still a very unimpressive team,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: very bad offense, mediocre bullpen. A's though, have one of
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: the worst bullpens in baseball. So the A's have the
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: better offense out of the two, but the worst bullpen
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: out of the two. So you got to figure out
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: what's gonna happen with these starting pitchers. JP Sears is
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: pitching for the A's four point seven to ninety RA
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: one point two to five WHIP on the season, mediocre
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: numbers at best, although he's been better on the road
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: away from that atrocious stadium that the A's have to
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: play him. He's allowed thirteen home runs at home and
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: only six on the road, so he has been significantly
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: better on the road. Four point one four roady RA,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: so you could trust him more on the road. And
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: he's been fairly good in his last few starts, really,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: even the one against Cleveland last time I was in
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: that bet he went five innings along three on runs,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: five to two, strike out walk ratiome and then he
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: only allowed three on runs across the last three starts combined,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: and the A's won all three of those starts, so
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: the streke out walk numbers were a little bit iffy,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: although in the last two starts twelve to two strike
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio is looking a little bit better, so Sears,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is pitching fairly decently right now, and
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: those are whole games as well, So he actually started
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: pitching better at home, although it was against San Francisco
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta, who in Atlanta's offense hasn't even been that
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: good recent with San Francisco's offense really not good. Sears
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland though, even though their offense isn't that good,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: he was mediocre last time out against him, but overall
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has done okay against him in fifty one at bats,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: two ninety four batting average, seven eighteen ops. So I
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: don't know if we completely trust Sears here, and I
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: do prefer Slade Chacone pitching for.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: For Cleveland year. Even though Slade, I mean, is such
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: a ridiculous name.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: It's almost as bad as Blade Let's name our kid
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: blade Man. That's name of Slade, although it does kind
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: of have a ring to it where it almost sounds
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: badass in a way, it's somewhere between cringe and badass,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: But I think Slade is a pretty slade. I think
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Chickney is a pretty talented young pitcher though. Man three
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: point four to forty this year, one point two to
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: seven whip in his first season with Cleveland, although he's
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: been worse at home, with a four point nine to
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: five home y RA, so the home road splits don't
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: look good. But he is not allowed more than three
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: earned runs in any start since the start of June,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: which is pretty good. And he's got at least five
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: innings in all but one of them, and that was
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: the only start where he allowed more than two hourn
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: runs in that span, so he is pitching pretty well.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: A fourteen of four strike at walk ratio in July
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: over those two starts in July, allowing two runs a
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: piece against Detroit and Houston, who were pretty decent teams.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Last time out against the A's he was pretty good
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: and seven innings, considering the fact that it was at
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: the A's stadium, it's pretty good that he shut them out.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Three strikeouts wasn't very impressive, but one walk, six hits
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of no runs. You'll take that any day
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: of the week. Man, that was a good start in
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a hit or friendly ballpark. So including that start, he's
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: been good against the A's and thirty two career at
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: bats two nineteen average allowed.
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Four eighty three ops.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: So I think Chacone probably has the upper hand of
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: the two starters, and I know he hasn't been as
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: good at home.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: Slight lean would beat a Cleveland in this game.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is down for mights one to thirty five to
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: one twenty seven, but they do have seventy five percent
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on them, so loosely, maybe
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: that move on the money line might have been false
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: because it's in complete conflict with where we see the
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: cash coming in, and we have sixty four percent of
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: the tickets on the A's in this game, so it
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: does look like it's kind of a pros versus Joe's
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: scenario setting up here. It looks like the Joe's actually
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: are coming in and they want the A's is a
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: slight underdog price because well, I don't even know why,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: I guess because the A's have the better offense, so
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: the public just gravitates towards the better offense. Cleveland still
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: has the better overall record, even though yesterday Cleveland has
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: been playing above what their level actually is because they're
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: really not that good. But yeah, that's the handicap there.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do think Cleveland does have the pitching
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: edge throughout this game. A's bullpen is trash, so probably
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is still the right way to look, even though
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: I do think Cleveland again, I mean the fact they
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: were hot going into the All Star break, They're momentum
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: could be a little bit hurt there. Yankees are gonna
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: be at the Braves, and the Yankees are undecided on
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: their starting pitcher. And I guess we can look at
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: the market here to see if they've actually decided on
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: a picture.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we still see.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is still undecided here, Kansas City undecided, Yankees undecided,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: and what was the other game that I talked about.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I think those are the only three, right, So there
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: are two more with undecided pitcher zone. This is one
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: of them with the Yankees, and then we're gonna have
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Arizona with an undecided pitcher as well.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: So I don't know who the Yankees have as a starter.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpens, neither bullpen is really that
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: trustworthough the A's act Braves. Excuse me, you have actually
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: kind of climbed the ranks a little bit as far
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: as their bullpen, kind of surprising me. The Braves are
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: actually now in the top ten and bullpens, which is
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: kind of crazy. The Yankees are kind of middle of
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the pack bullpen wise, bottom half actually a little bit.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: So we do have a Braves bullpen edge in this game,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: although obviously the Yankees have the better offense. The Braves
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: made very well have a starting pitching edge here though,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: because we don't even know who the Yankees are going
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: to start here.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Spencer Strider is pitching for the Braves.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: He's trying to come back from an injury where he
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: missed significant time with an injury, and he's trying to
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: come back this year and his numbers are starting to
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: get pretty good. Three point nine to four ERA, one
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: point one to seven whips, So I do like stride
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Er when he's on. He has really good strikeout stuff
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: as well. He has a three point three home ERA,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: so he's been good at home as well, and it
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: does look like a strikeout stuff is back. He had
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: eleven strikeouts last time on at that horrible a stadium.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: It did hold them to three earned runs. He did
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: walk three, so his walk numbers have been high, walking
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: at least three in three of his last four starts,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: which I don't love. But he went at least six
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: innings in all three and didn't allow more than three
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: on runs in any of them. And he hasn't alarmed
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: with the three on runs in any start since the
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: first start of June, so he is in pretty good
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: form right now. He still did have a seventeen to
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: four strike out walk ratio over the two starts in
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: July so far, so his strikeout stuff is there. Yankees
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: don't have a whole lot of familiarity with him. They
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: only have four guys have hit against him before They've
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: done okay against him. It's a small twenty three at
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: bats sample size, but he does have a really significant
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate against him thirteen to one strike a walk
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: ratio a ton of strikeouts for stride, or more than
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: half of the at bats against the Yankees have resulted
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: in the k Against the Yankees, he has on the
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: A two sixty one average, which is pretty good given
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: that the Yankees offense is good. Seven to twenty six
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: obs isn't really that high either. Goldschmidt does have a
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: home run off him, but Strider overall has been pretty good,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: so I think we're probably looking to maybe could be
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: a lead towards Atlanta. I mean, the Braves have such
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: a bad record that you know the Yankees are going
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: to be the public.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: Team coming into this one.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Atlanta, I believe, also went into the All Star Break
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: on a bad note.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, so they did lose to Saint Louis even though
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: they had won a couple of games prior to that,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: and I think the Yankees win in a little bit
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: or Yankees actually winning a bad to have my apologies.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: They lost twice to the Cubs, so as far as
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox Cubs, both those teams went into the
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: break on a good note, Cubs beating the Yankees twice,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: but the Red Sox were just on fire man, so
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: I think the momentum stopper might hurt the Red Sox
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit more. But again, yeah, in this game,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: I think based on the starting pitching matchup alone, maybe
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: looking at Atlanta first five innings, but Atlanta does have
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: the better bullpend too, so you could just go Atlanta
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: full game in this one, potentially, if you want a
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Backstride or here. I think you would probably be fading
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the public in that case, because again, the public is
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: always gonna grab the Yankees, especially when this is gonna
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: be basically it looks like Atlanta minus one ten. It's
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: basically gonna be at like a Pickham price. So it's
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be like, how do you get the Yankees, who
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: have the way better record as almost an underdog against
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: a below five hundred Atlanta team. The public is only
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: gonna want to look to the Yankees in that game.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna go ahead and disagree on that one.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Atlanta in that game. Probably
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Texas and to skip that done next to
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Ale East game as well. Detroit at Texas is kind
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: of an interesting one.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Detroit. To me, it looks like Detroit is going to be.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: In a bounced back spot here man, because they went
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: into the All Star Break on a bad note, losing
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: four straight games, not only getting swept by Seattle, but
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: allowing thirty five runs against Seattle in three games. I mean,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: that is ridiculous, and it was in Detroit, where Detroit
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: does play really well at home. Even though yes, I
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: think Detroit isn't quite as good as the record looks.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: They're still one of the better teams in Major League Baseball, man,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: so I don't think they're gonna take that line down.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: So I do think this is a nice spot to
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: get right and use that All Star break to fix
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: what was going wrong. So I think they may be
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: able to do that here. Texas, first of all, is
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two offenses. You obviously have to
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind of Detroit is gonna have the
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: better offense. Texas' offense has struggled. Texas did go into
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: the All Star Break winning two straight series against no
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: They split this series in Anaheim and then won the
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: series against Houston and won three of the last so
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Texas did go into the All Star break more hot.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Reese Olsen is going to be a pitching for Detroit
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: and he is trying to come back from injury this year,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: and he's been okay. Two point nine to five ERA
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: and one point two four whip is a little bit
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: higher than you'd like to see. He's done a little
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road three point five to two DRAM. Overall,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: he's pitched fairly well though coming back from injury. If
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: you you know, if you ignore his first three starts,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: since then, which actually he came back early in the
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: season and then he missed the middle of the season.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: So far, he missed half of.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: May and all of June with an injury, and then
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: came back in July. In July, he does have a
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: two point eight to nine RRA and two starts, but
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: he didn't go that deep into either start, failing to
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: go five innings and one of them he gets a
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: weak Cleveland offense, and he only had four strikeouts and
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: three walks in that span, which isn't that good. But overall,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: I do like Olsen overall. I mean, if you look
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: at his career numbers, he's a pretty solid pitcher, but
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: his numbers are actually bad against Texas in thirty eight
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: at bats, does have a good thirteen to one strike
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: a walker rasue against him, but they have made hard
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: contact against them. Man, they have a three forty two
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: average against him semi and is three for six of
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: the home run off him.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: If you want to look for.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe a player prop potential, there eight fifty nine ops.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: So the numbers are not really that good for Olsen
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: at all against Texas. So even though I like the
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: situation for Texas, I think you got a refuse us
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: for Detroit.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: What am I saying the situation is good for Detroit?
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: I think you have to dial it back a little
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: bit on their starter, even though on the surface this
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: is one that kind of jumps out to me as, Oh,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: you have the better starter here on Detroit. So that's
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: the way you want to look, because you know, I
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: don't like Patrick Korban. But I'm hesitating a little bit, man,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: even though, yeah, I think Corbin is certainly the worst
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: of these two pitchers. He's been one of the worst
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: pictures in baseball over the last couple of starts, and
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: he actually has had a pretty productive season for Texas.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: But he is starting to regress a bit, and I
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: think he is becoming the KORbin that we know that.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: He is four point one to five ERA this year,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: one point three to two whip. His whip is becoming
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: pretty high here. He's been better at home though, three
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: point seven to nine. Homy Ra did fairly well in
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: the last few starts going into the All Star break,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: allowing three or fewer earned runs in all three uh
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Texas won his last two starts, allowing Tour in runs
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: in each of those. I had a nine to three
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: strike at walker ratio over that span, which wasn't that
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: bad last few starts. I mean, he had a good
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio in the prior two starts as well,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: the last two starts of June twelve to one, even
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: though he did get hit hard and gave up some runs.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: So Cordyman, I mean, he's not exactly in the worst
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: form right now. Those numbers against Detroit aren't really that good.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: In eighty seven career of bats two to eighty seven
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: batting average, eight thirty six obs, and he's allowed six
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: homers to them a two apiece from Baias and Tours.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: So Corbin has not exactly been that good against Detroit.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: So I think I still am probably going to lead
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: to Detroit in this game, but the money is coming
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: in completely the opposite that, so I don't want to
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: do it. But it's actually a strong market read on Texas.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets are on Detroit, but Detroit's dropped
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: for minus one to twenty to minus one oh nine money.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Think of Detroit's just too heavy a favorite because the
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: public likes Detroit because they have a decent offense. They
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: have the better offense of the two here, certainly, which
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: is going to attract the public's attention, and the public
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: just likes the team with the better record here.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: But sixty percent of the.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Cash is actually coming out of Texas, so this is
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: a strong market read on Texas. So I would not
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: want to buck that at all, even though my initial
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: read on this game was kind of had me thinking, oh, well, Detroit,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, we have comparable bullpens at least here. We
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: have Detroit with the better offense and Detroit with the
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: better starter. But the market is and Detroit, you know,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: kind of in a bounce back spot, but the market
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: is saying otherwise. Here Minnesota at Colorado, I mean, this
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: is a pretty ugly game to it too bad offenses.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, man, I don't like the bullpens.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, Minnesota bullpen has actually been shockingly bad this year.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: I mean they're in the bottom half for sure. Are
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: They're actually in the worst ten bullpens with a four
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: point one to four bullpendy area this year, And of
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: course Colorado is even worse than that. And it's not
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: good pitching a course field. So you have two bad
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: bullpends here, even though the offense is a weak. I
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: don't like either starter or either So this game, I'm
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: thinking that we might want to be looking towards an
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: over in this one, Zach, what's up man?
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Royals? Yeah, and Red Sox, thank you sir. Yeah, that's right.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: Red Sox will be playing this afternoon.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: As far as the Royals, we don't even know who
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: the Royals have as a starting pitcher today, man, So
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, it might not be the greatest
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: situation setting up for the Royals in that one. Minnesota
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: at Colorado them, man, I mean Chris Paddock. Well, at
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: least for the Royals, by the way, they do at
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: least have the better bullpend. Miami actually probably is the
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: better offense, though shockingly, that's just how bad Kansas City's
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: offense is. I mean, I do have the offenses up here,
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: so I can actually look with the best offenses here
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: at the top.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: What are we looking at here?
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: I have it ordered by ops as well, but we
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: want to be looking at the worst offenses though. Yeah,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Kissas City is uh whatever, that is fifth worst and
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Miami's actually not even in there. Miami is actually kind
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: of in the mediocre range. They're actually kind of a
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: mid tiear offense. Surprisingly okay, Minnesota at Colorado. Chris Paddock
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: pitching from Minnesota. I mean haven't been a fan of
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: what he's been doing recently. His ERA is up to
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: four point nine to five one point two eight whip.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, he was pitching effectively early in the season,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: but he's just not getting it done now. And he
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: has a five point five roady R and he's pitching
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: in Coors Field now.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: Not good.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: In his last like a bunch of starts have been bad.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: He's allowed four or more runs of four of his
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: last six starts Minnesota, I believe lost most of those.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: They've lost four of his last six starts, although one
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: of the starts that he pitched slightly better and was
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: one of the losses actually, But his last time I'd
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: give up six runs and eleven hits in five innings
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs. I mean, that's not gonna get it
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: done either. His strikeout walk ratio has actually been pretty
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: good this whole time, a thirty to six going all
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: the way back to the start of June. But he's
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: just been getting smacked man, even though his command has
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: been fairly good. As far as the strike out walk numbers, yeah,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's just been getting hit hard. And the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Rockies actually don't have terrible numbers against him. In twenty
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: eight career at bats seven to one strike a walk
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: ratio looks pretty good for Paddock. But uh two eighty
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: six batting average allowed in seven h three Oh ps,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Paddock, Yeah, he's not looking at a
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: leaky matches up that well here, it's not looking like
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: the greatest situation for him. He's up against Kyle Frieland
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: for Colorado five point four to four e ram, one
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: point five to four whip on the season, very high whip,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: probably the highest of all the starters today, and he's
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: been worse in course field six point six p ninety
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: ra at home, even though I think Colorado got him
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: because he actually typically pitches a little bit better in
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: course field, but that has not been the case over
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: his last couple of starts. He was very mediocre along
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: three or in runs in each of them, and he's
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: allowed three or more and three of the in all
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: of the last four starts had an eight to four
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk Razio over the two starts this month. Not
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: good stuff, just not good numbers overall against Minnesota.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: A lot of Minnesota their hitters.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Haven't seen him before, but in eighteen at bats, the
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: guys that have seen him have nine hits off him,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: including a Buckston home run, which I know Buxton was
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: in the home run derby, but I don't really think
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: that that's gonna linger that much. I don't really tend
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: to fade too many well hitters that are in the
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: home run derby.
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: I think maybe it makes sense to fade the.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Winner of the home run derby in like some props,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it really affects the overall teams
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: hitting that much. But overall they've hit really well against Freeland,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: a five hundred batting average in one thousand and two
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: seventy eight ops. Again, very small sample size, but I
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: think probably you're gonna be looking towards an over in
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: this game for all the reasons I just stated where
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: I think that the pitching is bad enough that the
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: offenses can actually kind of do something in this game.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: The total is really high at eleven for a reason,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: and I mean part of The reason is obviously because
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: it's scorts field, but I think overall the pitching matchup
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: does look over conducive to me. Eighty six percent of
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on the over
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis Is at Arizona, which is one of the
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: better games.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Actually kind of this on the slate here.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Both teams at least can hit, although I don't think
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: we expect much out of the bulp ends, especially on
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: the Arizona side. Saint Louis mediocre bullpen, Arizona's bullpent really bad.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Arizona was on a pretty bad stretch going into the
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: All Star Breaker that they did. They did win their
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: last game before the All Star Break, but I don't
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: think that means that they went into the All Star
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: break on like a good note or anything like the
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: All Star break is gonna hurt their momentum.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: I think, if.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Anything, that that win will give them some confidence going
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: into the All Star Break. Saint Louis also had one
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: win going into the All Star breaks, so as far
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: as the trends, as far as like the team's recent wins,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think either team is really necessarily hot or
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: not coming into this hot or not. Let's play that
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: with the pitchers here. Andre Polante's pitching for Saint Louis.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: He is certainly not hot man. Four point four to
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: nine ERA, one point three whip not good numbers on
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: the season.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: Has been better on the road three point nine to
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: eighty R in the road.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: But we're talking about pitching in Chase Field here, which
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: is a pretty difficult place to pitch. And even though
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: he went six innings in his last start before the
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: All Star Break, he gave up seven runs. Man against Washington,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: that is abysmal. I mean, they left him in figured
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: maybe they would save their bullpen in that game, I guess,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: But man, you give up seven runs to Washington.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: That is not good. Although he had allowed three.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Or few in every start going all the way back
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: to the first start of June, which was against a
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: bad Kansas City offense, and he gave up seven runs
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: in that game. So he actually had some better outings
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: against some of the better off fences that he faced.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: So it's almost like Polante just doesn't pay as much
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: attention to the weaker offense. Though he did have a
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: good one hit shutout for seven innings against Pittsburgh in
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: the start before the Washington start, but.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate has gone down as well.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Four to three strike out walk ratio over the last
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: two starts is not good.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: It's a very low strikeout rate.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Does have good numbers against Arizona in the past, though
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: small twenty five at bat sample size, but a two
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: hundred batting average a lot of forty eighty six oh
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: ps not that bad for Polante, so he actually doesn't
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: have bad matchup numbers against Arizona. I know ESPN says
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Fot is pitching, but I don't know if we want
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: to break him down just because it looks like he's
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: probably not pitching, because we see undecided here on the
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: board for Arizona. Now it looks like Arizona's gonna be
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: a small favorite in the minus one twenty to minus
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: one thirty range, probably, But I don't know what we
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: want to do with this otherwise, man, because we don't
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: really know what's gonna happen in this game. So I
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: don't know if Fott is actually pitching, although I guess
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: just because espnim if he is indeed pitching. I mean,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: he's been way worse this year than he has in
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: some of his starts some of his last seasons in
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: his career five point one sixty RA, one point three
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: to one whip not good numbers better at home though,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: four point two seven e RA, and he did start
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: pitching better going into the All Star break, allowing two
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs than five of the last seven
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: starts I believe is what that is, or four to
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: the last six. Excuse me, my stroke vision is coming
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: back in here. Remember, as I mentioned in one of
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: my shows last week, the stroke has kind of fucked
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: up my.
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: Vision so that the.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: It throws me off as far as like how many
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: rows I'm looking at here? But he did a lot
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: of four earned runs in the other two of those
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: two starts, and Arizona did lose four out of his
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: last five. But he himself actually hasn't pitched that bad
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: over the last four starts. At least he actually has
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: twenty six to four strike a walk ratio, so that
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: does tell you he actually does have some command. Recently
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: mediocre numbers against Saint Louis four forty three at bats,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: two fifty six average against, seven to sixty one ops against.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: But we don't even I don't even know if we
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: should pay that much attention to that, because again, FOT
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: might not even actually pitch today, so we'll see that
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: remains to be seen. David, Thank you, sir. Welcome back
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: to you as well. All Right, Houston at Seattle. Actually,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: hold on, how many of these games do I have? Actually,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be the last play that I have on
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: the board, So I'm gonna get back to all three
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: of my bets in a second, and we'll finish with
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee and the Dodgers.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: And this is an interesting.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: One, man, because I was thinking, we want to fade
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee here, man, is what I was thinking, because they
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: just swept the Dodgers, okay at Milwaukee, so it's not
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: road revenge here, but still this is a revenge series
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: for the Dodgers.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee just swept them very shortly before the All Star Break.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: And Milwaukee didn't lose any of their momentum. They didn't
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: have any let down. They continued by sweeping Washington and
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: they went on. They went into the All Star break
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: on a seven game win streak. So I think that
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: that'll All Star break could hurt Milwaukee's momentum.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Man. So I'm looking at this and I'm like, I
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: don't want anything to do with Milwaukee here. Man. Dodgers.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: Yes, they went into the All Star breaking a decent
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: note as well, winning their last two games against San Francisco,
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: but that broke a horrific streak that the Dodgers run.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Dodgers had lost seven games in a row. So I
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: think you gotta think that the momentum killer is really
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: on the side of Milwaukee. The All Star break would
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: serve as a momentum killer for them and not so
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: much for the Dodgers. Here, looking at the bullpends, we
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: actually have two fairly bad bullpens at this point. I mean,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers are in the bottom several bullpends, which is ridiculous,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: seventh worst. Who would have thought that that would be
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: the case, And the Brewers are in the bottom half,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: although they've actually gotten a little bit better. So the
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Brewers actually do have a bullpen edge in this game.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Both teams can hit well, though the Dodgers do have
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: the hitting edge in this game, and I do think
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: I have to give the starting pitching edge to the
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Dodgers here. Milwaukee has Quinn Priest around the mound. I
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: know he's had some He's looked pretty good in some
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: of the outings this year, but I don't know if
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: I trust him. Three point five to five ERA, one
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: point two five whip not bad four point.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: Zero nine ERA on the road, so he's been a
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: little bit worse on the road.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Did start struggling a little bit more of his last
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: two starts, even than Milwaukee has been really hot behind him.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's won his last eight starts in a row, not
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: losing any of his starts going all the way back
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: to the end of May, which is crazy, and he
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: allowed Man one or few were in all but one
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: start in June. Since then, he's been a little bit
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: worse though against bad offenses in Miami and Washington. He
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: actually had a five point zero six e RA in
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: those two starts and only a nine to four strike
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio and allowed three on runs in those starts.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: So Priester did go into the All Star Break not
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: pitching as well. Man start against Washington was actually decent
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: and was a bit of a bounce back after his
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: worst start there against Miami. Dodgers also have basically not
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: seeing priest. Confort was the only hitter of who has
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: seen him before. He's one for three often with a single,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: no walks, no strikeouts. But none of the Dodgers hitters
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: besides him have seen Priest before, So that might mean
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: Priest might have a little bit of an edge here,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: because when you do have a young guy who's a
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: little bit talented like that, like Priester is, they might
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an edge against the hitters
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: that haven't seen him before. So Priester might have a
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge there. Emily, what's up? Thanks
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. Uh, But still I think I have
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: to give the edge to Glass noo here man. I mean,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: he's just the way more proven pitcher. I mean, there's
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: a reason why the Dodgers traded for him, and they
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: got him to be basically in one of their aces, man,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: and he just came back from injury xerox.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: What's up?
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: Nahh that is right, man, even though I'm suffering the
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: consequences glasnow, I mean, he's been pretty good when he
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: has pitched this year three point five to two ERA,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: one point two to two whip. He's been better at
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: home as well with a three R and we're not
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: looking at a huge samp size year. He pitched early
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: in the season, and then he got hurt and he
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: has just come back, so he was out since late
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: April with another injury. I mean, the injuries have kept
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: this guy from really doing like great things with the
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Dodgers pretty much because he's been hurt basically since they've
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: gotten him, which is I don't like the Dodgers, so
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: I don't care that much about that, but I do
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: actually like Glass though I just don't like the Dodgers,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: but for him, for his sake, I kind of hope
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: he gets better. But he did have a decent start
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: and it was against these Milwaukee Brewers, who he has
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: to face again tonight. So it's kind of crazy how
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: this works out where his only start after coming back
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: from injury was against the team that he's facing again tonight.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: He pitched fairly well.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: He went five innings, didn't allow any earned runs in
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the game, give up two hits five strike ups, but
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: he did walk three, so the walk rate wasn't that
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: good in the game. And there might be just a
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: slight disadvantage to Glass now here just because Milwaukee did
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: face did just face him, So it is kind of
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: a weird situation where Priester didn't pitch in that series
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: against the Dodge, I guess so priest actually has a
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of an upper hand, which might be why
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: when we look at the market, the money is actually
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: coming into the Brewers here, and it might be because
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: Priestar actually is the visure that has the unfamiliarity edge here.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: But still, Glasnow, I mean he's not a mystery to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: any team really. I mean he's a veteran, he's been
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: around for a while. So even though the Brewers did
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: just see him, I still think he's got an upper
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: hand against the Brewers. And if you look at his
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: career numbers against the Brewers, they're ridiculous. Like that start
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: that he just had against the Brewers is probably one
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: of his worst starts against them.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: They have forty three career at bats.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Against me as an eighteen to four strike a walk
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: ratio on own ninety three batting average, only four hits allowed,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: and a three point thirty three OPS. So Glasnow has
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: actually completely dominated them. So I'm looking at this and
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: I just think the Dodgers have too much of an
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: edge here. Even though Milwaukee does have a bullpen edge
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, I think I have a starting pitching edge.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: I think they have a hitting well.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: They do have a hitting edge as well, and I
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: think they have the momentum edge as well, because I
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: think Milwaukee just their momentum could be killed by that
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: All Star break. Although granted, obviously Milwaukee will still be
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: focused here. I mean, when you're going out to play
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, you're gonna go out and be focused. And
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: the money is disagreeing with me, and the money is
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: coming in on Milwaukee. Dodgers have dropped a little bit
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: for minus one eighty five to minus one eighty three,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets, only sixty four percent of
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Dodgers. I will certainly not give
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: this out as a play, although I was sort of
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: maybe looking that way a little bit. But yeah, other
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: than that, I don't know. I have a whole lot
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: to say about this. I was considering maybe giving out
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: a play in the Dodgers run line, and I think
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: if you do play the Dodgers, that's probably the way
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: that you go, even though they are at home, so
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: you won't get the last at bat from the Dodgers.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: But typically when the Dodgers do win, they do typically
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: win by more than that one and a half run
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: going back to like last year. So usually you want
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: to play against the Dodgers, or if you want to
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: play the Dodgers because they're always such a heavy favorite,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: you gotta look towards run line or yeah, look towards
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: them on the run line or something like that.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: You could get.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: Really granular with this and played just because glasno is.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: Like the most predictable factor of this, I think is
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: the fact that he dominates Milwaukee. So you could look
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: to play Milwaukee's team total in the first five innings
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: under and you might be able to get like you
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: probably have to go under about two on that maybe
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: or two and a Maybe you can get even a
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: two and a half on that.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: And I haven't looked at the market.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: It's a very granular market, and it seems very risky
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: to do that, but I think maybe that might wind
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: up being a way to look at this game, because
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: I think glass Noo does have the upper hand based
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: on his I'm pitching matchup stats xerox.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: What's up? Man?
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: The greatest comeback story for me? Maybe, Man, I don't know,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: or I might die on the streets of Boston. It's
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty right now, Man, or something completely something
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: that isn't. Either of those things could happen. Man, who
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: knows Will's what's up?
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: Man? Or will I should say r thank you sir.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: Happy Friday to you as well, Dude, I don't even
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: know what day it is, to be honest, Scott, what's
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: up man?
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: Thanks everybody for hanging out dude. We got a lot
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: of viewers here today.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: It's this is the comeback right here, baby, We're back
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: after taking the All Star week off.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: We are back with.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Better off Dead baby, and I've changed the format, so
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: now you know what time it is. Man. We're gonna
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: get right into this. We're gonna get into the best
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: Bets segment. Let's go, baby.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: We got this.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Little toad artwork going. Hell yeah, let's do it. Even
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: though those playoffs, dude, I mean yeah, whatever, chat GBT
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: doesn't know what the fuck's going on. You're not gonna
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: have NBA, NHL and MLB playoffs going on at the
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: same time. But whatever, Let's get into the three bets
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: that I have today.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: You know that those are the the pussy the games
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: that I skipped. Yeah, we're gonna suck today's dick. We're
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: gonna get to the Best Bets, Man. Hopefully when I'm
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: descript this, it's gonna get the It's gonna figure it
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: out and split that off, so it's gonna be easier
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: to actually find my bets. That's what I'm trying to
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: do here, man, because descript like hasn't done a good
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: job at like at splitting each game that I break
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: down into a chapter. But maybe I'm just so skitzeoning
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: all over the place. Maybe it fucks with descript and
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: descript can't figure it out. But maybe this will at
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: least help people if they want to just go to
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: the best Bets and just see what the best bets are.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: You know, it's gonna be towards the end of the show,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: but also you might get the chapter from descripting it.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: We will say first one, so I'm gonna have two unders.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned, I like unders coming out of the
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: All Star breakman, because I think the offenses might come
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: out a little bit cold, and I think because you
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: have the rested bullpends that's an advantage as well. And
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: I am gonna have a weird first five inning side
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: money line as well. But we're gonna start with the
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: unders and the first one is gonna be a play
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: that the public is not gonna like this one. Man
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: Red's Matt's going under the total of eight. I actually
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: like this one quite a bit, and I do think
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: there's market agreement on this one. I saw it out
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: there at minus one oh five. I mean you might
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: be able to get it at my under eight and
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: a half as well. And I don't know what you
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: have to pay for the under eight and a half half,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: but those are not key numbers in baseball, So do
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: with that information what you will. But you definitely do
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: not want to wait until this gets to seven and
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: a half, because it does look like it's actually trending
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: that way. It looks like the money is agreeing with
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: me on this one pretty strongly. When I looked at
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: this game, I was like, Yeah, this looks like.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: An under to me.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Public is obviously gonna want to be on and over
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: here because I mean, you see Mets, Reds, I mean,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: both of these teams can put up some offense. You
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: see a couple of pitchers who aren't exactly like the
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: name pitchers here, So public's gonna want to look over
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: and I don't agree with that. Even though I don't
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: love these bullpens, man, but I'm gonna go with the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: bullpen's being rested here. If you want to go first
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: five innings under and just go with the starting pitching matchup,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: I think that's an okay way to look as well.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: But I think just because we do have the rested
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: bullpens here, I think we can go with the full
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: game under in this one. Even though I know we're
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: looking at bullpens that are they're not awful though. I
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: mean the Mets were good early in the season. Both
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: of their bullpens still do have bullpenny areas under four
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: on the season, so that's not They're.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: Both mid tier bullpens.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: So I'm okay with doing it a full game here
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: in this case, even though I know both teams can
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: put up some offense here. But I like how this
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: sets up.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: We got Nic Lodolo pitching for the Reds here. He's
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: pitched well this season. Three point three eighty RA, one
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: point one to one whip. Those are solid numbers, and
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: he's been better away from Great American Ballpark. Great American Ballpark,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: it's a home run conduc of ballpark, and he's seen
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of home runs get launched against him. Eleven
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: of the fifteen home runs that he's allowed this year
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: have been at home. But we don't have to worry
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: about that here, baby, because he's on the road. He
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: has a two point five to six Roadie ray, so
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: he is a lot better on the road. He went
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: into the All Star Break pretty good, allowing two or
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: fewer on runs and six no five straight starts. Again
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: my stroke stroke visions coming back in again. And some
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: of those games were decent starts against good teams. I
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: mean against the Yankees. I know he didn't go five innings,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: but he held him to one run, six strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: I'll still give him credit for that. Did okay against
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: San Diego, did decent against Philadelphia, so he did face
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: some good offenses in there. He's in pretty good form
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: right now. Man over the last two starts this month
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: a twelve to two strikeout walk ratio and last start
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: shut out Miami for six innings coming up of that
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: pretty decent start against Philadelphia, so Lodolo the splits look good.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: He's in good form right now, and the Mets are
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: actually pretty unfamiliar with him. Man and Lodolo, by the way,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: both of these starters are lefties, so lefties because they
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: throw at some kind of weird arm angles. Sometimes the
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: lefties have a little bit of an upper edge, an
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: upper hand against the opposing lineups as well, just because
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: they kind of have strange arm motions and arm angles
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: more of the time than.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: Righties do them.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: Because those lefties, man, they're a little bit demonic. Man,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: They're kind of freaks of nature. But Lodolo, the Mets
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: haven't even seen him that much. They know, have fourteen
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, and in those at bats they
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: have not done well.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: Seven strikeouts, one walk.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, Tyrone Taylor does have a home run off him,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: but overall he's held the Mets to a two fourteen
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: average six ninety fives. So Ludolo is unfamiliar to a
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: lot of the Mets bats, and the bats that have
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: seen him before they haven't done well against him. So
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: I like how this sets up for Ludolo, and I
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: actually like Sean Manaiah on the other side. Man, he's back.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think I mentioned his name this year, man.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: I guess he must have come back. Was it must
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: have been a late announcement or something, because he's made
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: one start. I think this season. Yeah, he came back
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: and started on July thirteenth against Kansas City. And yes,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: I know his whip doesn't look good. I understand one
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: point five whip that's bad. Two point seventy array is good.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: MANAIA.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: He's always been a guy that's been a little bit
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: wild though, and he was not wild. And that started
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City. Yes, we have to temper our expectations
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit because Kansas City is a very bad offense.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: But he only allowed one on run.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, he only went three to third innings, did allow
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: five hits, which isn't that great. But he had seven
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: strikeouts and no walks. That tells me he was actually
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: dealing man a high strikeout rates. That kind of tells
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: me Mania is kind of back man. If we look
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: at what he did last year, he was good in
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: his first season with the Mets last year, even though
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: he's in his thirties now, he had kind of a
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: resurgence last year and had a nice basically in a
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: complete season starting for the Mets. He had a three
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: point four to seventy RAM and one point eight whip.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: And if the strikeout rate in his first game this
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: season is Indian any indication, I think he's probably gonna
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: be pitching well again here, man, If we look at
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: what he did last year, I didn't. I actually didn't
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: look at his splits last year. His splits weren't that significant.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: He was a little bit worse at home, but his
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: era was still in the threes both ways. But Manaiah,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: he is used to pitching in the stadium, so that's
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: good obviously. Yeah, And I think having a game under
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: his belt is good. So I think he is gonna
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: pitch well in his second game. Coming back from injury.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: You get kind of those nerves out of the way,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: you get more use of pitching again, you're back in
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: the groove.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: And he's been good against the Reds.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: In fifty two career at bass you only have nine
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: hits off him, although yes I know three of them
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: are home runs, but he sell him to a one
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: seventy three average, only a six thirty seven oh ps.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: So Manaia does have good numbers against the Reds. Fourteen
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: to seven strike a walk ratio is a little bit questionable,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: but I mean that's kind of what Manaiah does. So
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna want to play on one of his games.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: You kind of just have to deal with the fact
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: that throughout his career he's been a good strikeout pitcher,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: but not a not a very good not walk pitcher.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: He's been he's been a walker throughout his career, but
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: his strike got rated. His stuff has been good enough
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: that it's been good. He's had a pretty good career
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: mat it's been good for him. So Manaia, I mean,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: I like the starting pitching matchup bearer. So again, under
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: the eight is the recommendation. You probably can't find that
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: price anymore. If you could probably still find an under
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: eight and around like you know, minus one ten, minus
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: one fifteen or so whatever. If it starts getting a
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: little bit higher than that, maybe you could look to
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: the seven and a half again in baseball. As I
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: always talk about, key numbers in baseball is seven to
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: nine and eleven because if you have a three three tie,
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: four to four tire, or five to five tie, you
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: need that extra run to happen to for some team
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: to win the game. Obviously, that's why the odd numbers
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: are a little bit more key, and you want to
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: get on the right.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: Side of those numbers.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: The next play is this weird first five inning money line,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go on the Baltimore Orioles first five innings.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: I saw it in minus one o two out there.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: I mean I saw a.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: Full game Baltimore as an underdogs, so you could look
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: that way as well. And yeah, I know, I know
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: what this looks like, Charlie Morton. It's like, what what
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: are you doing?
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: Toe?
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: Why do you want Charlie Morton here? Well we can
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: explain this in a minute. By the way, both Baltimore
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: and Tampa Bay went into the All Star Break I
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: think on a bad note, so I think they're both
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking to bounce back. I mean, Baltimore allowed
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: seventeen runs, they got out scored seventeen to one at
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: home against Miami in their last two games going into
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: the All Star breaks, so that's ugly. Yes, Tampa's gonna
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: want to bounce back as well, because they lost four
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: games in a row going into the All Star Break.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: But for them, it was all against the Boston Red
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: Sox that was a much tougher series, so it's really
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: not that embarrassing. Even though they lost every game. Almost
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: all the games are close. They basically all were, so
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: I think that's actually gonna be something that kind of
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: has more of a hangover effect for Tampa.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: So I actually liked the idea of fading Tampa.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know it is a return home spot
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: as well, but as I said, that doesn't really matter
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: that much because you have the All Star break to
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: kind of get your stuff done at home, get your
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: affairs in order, so the distraction isn't really there as much.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: But even so, I mean, Tampa might not even pay
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: that much attention to Baltimore because Baltimer is in last
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: place here. And as far as Charlie Morton is concerned,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: I know his stats this year are terrible. Five point
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: one eighty RA one point five to whip. He's been
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: better recently, though I know away he's not good to
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: either five point nine to seven ERA. I know, and
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: he's pitching in a not very pitcher friendly park here
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: at Tampa. Yes, I understand all that Tampa and Steinberger
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Field here, but Morton since they relegated him to the bullpen. Man,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: as I keeps saying, when I break down all in
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: Morton's games, man, I mean he was starting, he was
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: doing terrible. He's forty one years old, look like his
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: career was over looked at probably should just ended all
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: as I say, for his career, though not the way
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: that I would end at all. But it got to
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: a point where Baltimo where even when they put him
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: in the bullpen, he lost twelve games that he appeared
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: in his first twelve games that he appeared and in
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: the season Baltimore lost them all. But then after he
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: started pitching better out of the bullpen, they put him
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: back in the starting rotation and they won five games
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: in a row with him starting, and they've won since
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: they put him back in the rotation. They've won seven
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: of his eight starts, and that other starting he only
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: allowed three earned runs and they lost in extra endings
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: to Texas. He hasn't allowed more than four in runs
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: in any of those starts since he's come back out
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen, and he's allowed two or fewer in
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: all but two of them. So it's been a total
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: resurgence from Wharton, and shockingly, he's actually pitching pretty well.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: I had a two point eight eighty R in June
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: thirty two to eight strike at walk ratio. Two starts
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: in July, both wins for his team against Atlanta and
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: the Mets eleven to four strike a walk ratio, And yeah,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: it's too many walks because he walked three against the
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: Mets last time out.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: Still, those are pretty good starts.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: Two point three point eighty r I only have three
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: on runs and eleven and a third innings in those starts.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: So Morton is in good form right now. And yes,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: he did face Tampa not that long ago, which actually
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: was at Tampa by the way, so it was in
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: the same stadium, and he pitched really well. He gave
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: up one run in six innings, seven strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: six hits. So is he gonna be that good again?
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: Probably not, but we don't really need him to be
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: that good again. But again, yes, I know Tampa just
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: saw him, but we're gonna see both. These pitchers are
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: very familiar with the opposing lineups, and one of them, Morton,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: actually has really good matchup numbers against the opposing lineups,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: and the other one does not at all. So Morton
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: pitched well against Tampa last time out in the stadium.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: Career numbers against Tampa forty eight career at bats, eighteen
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: to five, strike a walk ratio, two aweight batting average
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: and five point fifty four ohps, so really weak offensive
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: stats for Tampa against Morton, so he does really well
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: against them. So I like the Mortons side of this,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: and looking over the other side, I do not like
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: Taj Bradley four point six ERA and one point two
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: to seven WHIP. I know his numbers are better than
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: Morton's on the season, and he's the way younger pitcher,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: so his ceiling is probably higher, but still he has
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: not been getting it done. And I know the tendency
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna be for the public to want to
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: look to Tampa here because they have the better record,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: they should bounce back, and people are gonna look at
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: the era's to say, well, Morton's THERA is sky high,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: so it makes sense to play Bradley because he must
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: be the better of the two pitchers, right, But I
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: don't really think so. He's been really bad in this stadium,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: five point five point five RA at home in the stadium,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: giving up eight of the twelve home runs he's allowed
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: the season at home, So that's not good for Bradley.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: And speaking of being recently familiar with the pitcher, he
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: pitched twice against Baltimore not that long ago on June
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: twenty ninth in June eighteenth, and both of those starts
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: were atrocious. The one in Baltimore, he gave up five
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: runs on eight hits, in one walk and five and
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: a third in He's only struck out two and threw
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: almost one hundred pitches in that game. The other starting
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: only lasted one in a third in this stadium, give
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: up six n runs and one to the third on
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: six hits, a one walk, two strike ups, and give.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: Two home runs. So that is awful.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: So last time out we had two completely different looking
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: starts from these two starters, and I think it's a
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: matchup thing.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: Obviously, I don't think Bradley's gonna be this bad again,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: nor do I think Morton's gonna be that good again here.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: But we don't neither to be that bad or that
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: good for this to cash. We just need Morton to
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: outpitch Bradley, and based on what they've done recently and
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: what they've done against these opponents and in this stadium,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: I think that that's a pretty decent way to look here.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: Bradley's numbers against the Orioles are bad and seventy four
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: at bats. Yes, he has a good nineteen to three
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, but he's a lot of three
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: twenty four average to them, a nine to seventy two OPS,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: and they've hit six home runs off him, six different
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: bats of all home and off him. Henderson's seven for
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: seventeen with the home run does a lot.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: Of damage against him.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: O'Hearn is five for twelve on the home run to
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: walk against him. So yeah, some of these guys do
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of damage. And we're gonna take the bullpens
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: out of this equation because of course, Baltimore's bullpen is
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: bad enough that I don't want to deal with them.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: They have a four point six y three yeh ray there,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: the sixth worst bullpen in baseball, so I don't want
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: to deal with that. Tampa's is mediocre, I mean three
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: point nine one, right, So Tampa does have a bullpen
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: edge here, So we will not deal with Tampa's bullpen
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: in this game. And I believe Tampa does have an
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: offensive edge overall as well. Let me see Tampa, where
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: are they at. They're thirteenth right now in batting as
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: far as OPS is concerned, least in Baltimore's twentieth. So
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: Tampa does have the better offense as well, So we're
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: gonna limit it to just the pitching matchup here, the
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: starting pitching, which I think there's a big discrepancy with
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching. The money doesn't like it's slightly on
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: the side of Tampa. When I looked earlier, it looked
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: like it was slight on Baltimore. Actually Network made it
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: look like it was slightly on Baltimore. Either way you
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: look at it, I think you might be able to
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: get an underdog price on Baltimore right now. Man, Tampa's
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: just sitting at minus one twenty and given the matchup
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: numbers I just showed you, I don't think that Tampa
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: really should even be that much of a favorite here.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: I think you have the matchup edge on the favorite
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: ball in the favor of Baltimore, and you'll be able
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: to get the get a pretty good price on them
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings. So that's the way that
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: I like that when Baltimore first five innings, Robin, what's up?
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: No, I do not.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Jose to show you as you want Jose to show
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: you his plussy. Is that what you're saying. I know
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: Jose has all those cats. I do not have any pets.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: My pets. I have de facto pets that are the
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: pets that my other family members have, especially my parents.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: My parents always have huskies.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: So my pet right now is the one husky that
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: my parents still have right now, though she's old right
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: now unfortunately, So that is a Yana. You could say
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: hey to Yana, my parents husky that they have right now.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: My parents have always had huskies throughout my life, and
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: they usually have cats too, but they have not had
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: cats for a little while now. My sister also has
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: she usually has, I mean, she used to be a
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: dog sitter, like semi professionally, so.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: My sister, she always is surrounded by dogs.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: But she and her husband they have a dog, an
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: American Esquima if you want to say hi to him
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: as well, and then U tan or is that dog's name.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: He's a he's a rescue and he's a white dog,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: and he's actually a racist and comes from Arkansas. He
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: does not like men who are not white. Actually he uh,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: he really does not like them. So they're gonna I believe.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: My sister and her husband actually just got two new
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: cats as well, uh, because she used to have a
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: black cat. Who unfortunately I passed away not that long ago,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: and I don't know what their cats are gonna be named,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: but they they did just get two cats. Jose always has, uh,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: he always has a different number of cats because.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: He reads them.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: Jose is a breeder of Sphinx cats, so he probably has,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: you know, like the ones that he actually like uses
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: to breed. He probably has them around for a bit longer.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: But the number of cats that he has, obviously is
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be changing depending on what's going on with his
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: breeding there. You're gonna distract me with something in the chat.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: What are you gonna do?
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: You're gonna show me your pets, Robin, Oh, you're gonna
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: show me your hairless pussy.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: All right? You know, I assume in DMS that means
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: you're gonna do that.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: Several to breed. But he sells the kittens. Yes, cracks,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: that's a yeah. Jose runs that operation there. That is
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: his uh, that is one of his passions, man, one
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: of his jobs. Let's get to this last play here,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: which is another under. It's a full game under and
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: it is that Houston Seattle game that I skipped a
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: little while ago, skipping the hairless kiddies, Houston and Seattle.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: I like the under in this one two man again,
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: I'll say it again. We have offenses that might be
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit cold. Year.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: We're actually fading cal Rawley in a way here.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: After he's coming out of the home run derby as
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: well and winning that thing and looking like he's unbeatable
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: right now, So we're fading that. I know Seattle's offense
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: has actually been good recently, so yes, we're having to
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: fade Seattle's offense. I know they've actually risen to the
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: seventh best offense right now in Houston actually has the
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: ninth best offense. But I actually kind of think both
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: offenses playing a little bit above their pay grade right now.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are decent as we're looking at this. We
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: have a Houston third best bullpening R and all baseball
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: in Seattle's not that much worse during like the top
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: third basically, So I think we're okay with the bullpens here.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: And I like to starting pitch up a pitch up.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: Why do I keep saying that, smack my pitch up.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: We're gonna see some prodigy here, rip baby Houston Seattle.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: I like to starting pitching matchup here man Brandon Walther.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's not a guy anybody's gonna pay attention to.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: Name wise, he's having a good season for Houston, Man,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. He's been effect three point
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: nine to eighty RA, one point zero one whip. Those
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: are good numbers. He's been really bad on the road,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: I know, five point seven to three ERA, so his
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: road splits.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: Look really bad.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: But he's pitching in Seattle, Man, It's a pitcher friendly
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: ballpark here, so I think we could dial that back
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: And you look at his road numbers. A couple of
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: his starts.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: Are really skewing in and one was at cores Field,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: and you know, that's a hitter friendly ballpark, even though
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: I know Colorado's offense isn't good, so I kind of
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: throw that one out a little bit.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: And then he had one.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: Other just really weird outlier start where he got wrecked
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: by Anaheim. But other than those two starts, he hasn't
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: allow more than two hour runs in any of the
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: other starts of this season, so he's pitched well and
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: all the other starts he has a really good forty
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: The problem again has been on the home runs. Man,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: he's allowed eight home runs.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: He's got to get the home runs under wraps man,
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: that's been the real problem with them. But again, we
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: have a pitcher friendly park here where we might not
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: see as many home runs in this game because the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: home the park is less home run could do. So
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: that might actually help Walter because he's a little bit
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: of a fly ball pitcher. But the home runs maybe
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: they were even a little bit of a fluke man.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: Based on his other stats, he's not allowing that many hits.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: Few were the one hit per inning, and his command
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: has been good. He has almost one strike up per
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: inning and only two walks in the entire season, I mean,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: is really good for the amount of innings pitch, so
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: his command has been good. Up against Seattle, only Solano
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: has ever seen him before, and he's zero for one, yes,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: with two walks, but still Walter basically has never been
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: seen before by Seattle's hitters. So I think that's another
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: edge for Walter, where when you have these pitchers that
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: are pitching pretty well and you have the opposing lineups
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen them before, attends to be an extra
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: edge to the pitcher, and he's going up against Luis Castillo,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: who at first of all, I was actually looking when
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: I first looked at this, I was thinking, maybe we
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: want to fade Seattle here, because Seattle they went into
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: the All Star Break on a really high note. As
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: I pointed out, they scored thirty five runs in a
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: sweep at Detroit. That is huge for Seattle. So I
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: was thinking they're in kind of a letdown spot coming
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: into this game. And Houston actually went into the All
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: Star Break on a really bad note, losing five of
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: their last six games and getting swept by Cleveland and
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: then losing a series to Texas as well. So to me,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: it does look like Houston is in the bounce back
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: spot and maybe the right side here.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: But I looked at Luis Castillo pitching.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: For Seattle, and I was like, I think the under
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: is just the better way to go here, man, because
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to fade Castillo either. Three point
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: four to one ERA one point two to four Whip.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: He's basically pitching as you would expect him to. I mean,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: he's a pretty predictable pitcher for the most part. Two
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: point twenty nine E ra I don't want to jinx
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: myself here at two point two nine homey Ram. He's
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: been really good at home last three starts. He's only
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: allowed four total runs over the last eighteen innings and
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: has an eighteen to four strike a walk ratio over
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: that man fourteen to two in this month so far,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle's won his last four starts, even though he did
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: give up five runs in one of them. Like I said,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: the most recent three have been good. He is in
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good form right now. Two point two five ERA
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: in the month of July, and his ERA still wasn't
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: even that high in June, even though he did walk
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: too many guys three point nine to seventy R in June.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: He's a good overall.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: And then I looked at his numbers against Houston and
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: they are good. In a huge one hundred and two
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: at bat sample size, he is a ridiculous thirty three
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: to two strikeout walk ratio against some very good command
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: against Houston and held him to two sixteen average and
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: really crazy low four ninety five ops. You usually do
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: not see a sample size that big with an OPS
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: that low. So Castillo does do well against Houston. So
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: we're going undering this game, man, that is the way
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: that I recommend looking at this. The money is agreeing
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: with me on this one as well, even though it
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: looks like the total's actually gone up a little bit
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: to a straight seven and a half, so you might
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: be able to get a better number on this. But
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: I see fifty three percent of tickets on the over
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: in fifty six percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm going under in that game, man.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: That's the way that I I I would go. That
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: is going to be a recommend to play for me there.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: And let me just check Action Network real quick here,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: just to see if anything has changed here as far
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: as these the market read that Action Network gives me,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: they're still actually they have the money coming in in Tampa,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: which I don't love, but I still think that pitching
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: matchup is just a ridiculous disparity there.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: And they are still looking.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: Strong read on the under in the reds Mets still
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: and still the read is the under in the Astros
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: Mariners as well. They do also have a strong read
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: on the under in the Red Sox Cubs, interestingly enough,
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: which I did say I leaned that way, and under
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: in Giants, Blue Jays, kind of look like there's a
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: lot of money on those market reads as well, and
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: on the Texas Rangers side, which I did say on
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: the show here, and actually on the Mariners, which is
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: weird because I do not like the Mariners as a side.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: They're actually like.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: I actually like Houston as a side, and they get
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: in pregame actually differs from Action Network.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: I'll bring this back up quickly just to.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: Show you the because I was gonna show you the
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: side in that game, because it is kind of a
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: big game here. Seattle's up for minus one twenty five
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: to minus one thirty one, but seventy three percent of
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: tickets and only sixty three percent of the cash, So
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: it looks like Seattle is a public side and not
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: getting the money. And of course the public will come
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: in on Castillo because he is the more known of
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: the two pictures, and Seattle's offense has been good and
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: people want Raleigh.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: So Seattle's attracting a lot of public action.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: I think Houston is in the better spot there, so
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: I lean to Houston as far as the side in
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: that game as well. Uh So let's uh, we'll see
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: what we'll finish up the chat here on Nate, what's
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: up man? I thought that said Toad Negro for a minute,
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: which I am Sicilian, So maybe that is what you mean.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: You're a butthole derailing conversations. You don't have to send
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: me a picture of your buttole. I'm not a butthole guy.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: Robin Xerox, what's up man? Double digits? No maximum at
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: one time for the amount of pussy that Jose has
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: in his house at any given time ninety nine cats.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: No, he never goes that high.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: You're not supposed to incriminate people on the air, Robin,
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: what are you doing? Maybe I shouldn't have brought that up,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: but people can still see it in the jats, So
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: I'm sure it's not over twenty yet. I mean, that's
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of pussy stink there. If he
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: has over twenty, you're betting twenty dollars on Fandel. I mean,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: first of all, I would recommend that you have multiple
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: outs here, and that you have a meaning that you
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: have an account at multiple books, because they could have
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: a slightly different number. So depending on which game you
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: want to play, you might find a different number at
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: different books. You want to get the best number that
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: you can, So I recommend, depending on what state you're in,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: you want to have you want to have an account
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: at all the books that you can and put some
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: money in each of them, which I mean, that's the
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: way you do it professionally. At least the guys from
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: Seattle might fatigue faster.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: No, they're playing in Seattle.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: The game is in Seattle, which is part of the
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: reason why I like the under there because Seattle is
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: one of the most pitcher friendly parks, if not the
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: most pitcher friendly park in.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: All of baseball.
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: So I mean, if you want to play that game,
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: like I said, I think under the seven and a
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: half is the right way to go in that game.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: Is that my favorite play? I think my favorite play
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: is actually the Reds and Mets under the total based
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: on the market reaction to it, I think that's probably
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: the strongest of the three. But I like all three
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: of them. I would not parlay them though, as I say,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: I'm against parlays because the books never give you good
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: enough odds and it's all you need three, like multiple
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: independent results to happen, So I would not do it
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: that way either. So I would play one or any
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: of those bets that I just gave out on the show.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: Just as a as a single.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: Bet, as a one off is the way that I
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: would do it if you do want some action, some
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: interest there and a decent chance to win. Which again
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: one more time, Red's Mets under eight was the first
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: play I gave on on the show Ball Baltimore Orioles
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: money line in the first five innings, which is maybe
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: the least favorite of the three. And then I do
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: have under seven and a half in Houston Seattle. I
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: will clarify I'm not actually betting these right now, as
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to get my life in order again after
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: the cancelation, as I keep pointing out, but I am
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: handicapping these like I am still doing this professionally though,
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: so I'm spending hours doing it. Thanks guys for hanging
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: out long episode here. I wanted it to be shorter
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: than that, but I do like chatting hanging out with
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: you guys. I like talking about this man. I can't stop.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: So hopefully we have us some good plays today. Better
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: off Dead once again. You can follow me well, you
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter or learn to toe and
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: on Twitter for all things me. Better off Dead or
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: at off dead better of course here on YouTube, which
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: I think most of you guys are on YouTube. I
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: am on audio platforms and it's monetized, so please share
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: it around rate you know, like subscribe, do all that
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: for the YouTube, for the audio forum podcast, you know,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: do all that and help me out, man, especially if
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: you're driving.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: This is not that much of a visual podcast. You
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: can listen to it.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: Help me out that well, though. There are ad reads
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: in it, so that's how I monetize it. And then
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: covered in Yuke is my ukulele project that is at
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: Covering and Yuke on YouTube. I am posting everything that
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: I post on Twitter now also on the YouTube channel,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: and I might maybe dial it back a little bit
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: as far as putting out a ton of new covers
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: because I kind of want to drip some of the
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: old ones in because I never posted them to YouTube,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: so I kind of want to do that as well.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: But I have to get really organized to do that.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: And I do have a Patreon, Patreon, dot com, slash
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: learn to Tone and at the higher levels of it,
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a Spotify feed with all the
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: stuff that I am putting up for Yuke.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: The yuk covers. So it's gonna be weird.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: It is gonna be a podcast on Spotify, but it
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: will be the yuke covers because.
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think I can get like, like become.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: An artist on Spotify as easily. So that's the way
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna crank those out for people to just want
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: some audio for that and at the highest level, I
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: am going to allow people to make requests and prioritize
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: those requests for you covers, and hopefully I can do
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: at least the majority of them. Yes, grape the grape
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: the like button. That is correct. Yes, thanks guys, Coldplay,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: I did, I did already.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: I'm very timely with that. Go check that out.
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: It's on the YouTube and I posted on Twitter I
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: covered fix you. I serenaded uh that guy's wife Andy Byron?
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: Is that Andy?
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Andy Byron I think is his name. The Astronomers
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: CEO who got caught cheating with his HR woman and
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: she's dude, hrwind you. Is that really what you want?
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: Some progressive leftist HR woman And she looks kind of
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: like an old hag too, Is that really what you want?
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: And he's betraying the wife who's the mother of his children.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: Who I think is the better looking of the two
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: significantly so, although his wife apparently is also a progressive.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're all from Boston, so what can you
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: do about that. But yeah, I serenaded her with fix
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: You yesterday, so go check that out. That's gonna do
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: it again. Yeah, I gave it all my stuff, learned
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: to toad once again. Better off dead, covered in Yuke.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks everybody, have a good one today. I will catch
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: you tomorrow with this show and on the other things.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: And of course you can, you know, message me on
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: Twitter and whatever if you want. That's gonna do it.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: Peace out.