Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Corn Up, Spirits Down: Navigating Agriculture's Emotional Rollercoaster

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Corn Up, Spirits Down: Navigating Agriculture's Emotional Rollercoaster · AG Bull

0:22
Speaker 1: well, we're live on the second try.
0:23
Speaker 1: Mr tommy grisafi, mr jim weissmeyer jim, can you hear me?
0:27
Speaker 2: I can hear you.
0:28
Speaker 2: Can you hear me?
0:29
Speaker 1: yeah, touch your mic by your.
0:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're talking through your laptop.
0:32
Speaker 1: So I think your you're talking through your laptop.
0:34
Speaker 1: So I think your voice is going through your laptop, not through your headset.
0:38
Speaker 1: So we'll get you adjusted there.
0:42
Speaker 1: I feel like you have the wrong.
0:44
Speaker 1: That's a lot better.
0:46
Speaker 1: See, we always.
0:48
Speaker 1: You know how many times I've done that wrong, too many.
0:50
Speaker 1: So okay, jim, welcome to the show.
0:53
Speaker 1: What a crazy week, hectic week, emotional week.
0:56
Speaker 1: I texted clients yesterday.
0:57
Speaker 1: I said 9-11 is always a hard day for me, but after the previous day's events I'm saddened and we'll start there, my friend.
1:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, charlie Kirk, yes, charlie Kirk.
1:08
Speaker 2: He was a martyr for free speech.
1:11
Speaker 2: Now.
1:11
Speaker 2: He was the one person who made young people think someone talked with them.
1:16
Speaker 2: He started at 18, didn't graduate from college self-learned, and he spoke against violence but got political violence in the end.
1:28
Speaker 2: The best speech, by the way, I have heard in years came this morning from Utah's governor, spencer Cox, about the situation.
1:38
Speaker 2: So I would encourage the viewers and listeners to go listen to that.
1:43
Speaker 2: So you know, people ask me what do you think?
1:47
Speaker 2: And I think we'll either see an escalation in political violence or leaders will seek an off-ramp.
1:54
Speaker 2: Hopefully that'll be the case.
1:55
Speaker 2: It's a watershed moment, tommy.
1:57
Speaker 2: I just don't know which way it's going to go.
2:00
Speaker 2: To me it's like the dark days of the late 1960s, but back then we didn't have the internet.
2:07
Speaker 2: So, bottom line Kirk cared about American youth.
2:12
Speaker 2: Many saw that, but some hated him.
2:15
Speaker 2: But I ask the question for what he pleaded for an open and respectable debate, and that's what he got and that's what we're into, right?
2:25
Speaker 1: now.
2:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll put out one thing.
2:27
Speaker 1: This is a tweet he put out in 2016.
2:30
Speaker 1: I'll show you this tweet.
2:30
Speaker 1: When I read this to you, you can tell a lot about a person and how they react when someone dies.
2:35
Speaker 1: I have friends or people I thought they were friends, but the way they acted on social media some of the original posts they had first put out, I noticed many of these people had deleted them.
2:46
Speaker 1: I was so kind to get a snapshot of the BS they were posting.
2:51
Speaker 1: But people losing jobs over this teachers, administrators and when you celebrate someone's death, that doesn't go down as a good moment, does it, sir?
2:59
Speaker 2: No, it does not.
3:00
Speaker 2: It does not, and I think, just go to his what he has said in the past and it's he was a nun.
3:11
Speaker 1: Jim, we lost your sound.
3:12
Speaker 1: We lost your sound again.
3:14
Speaker 1: There we go, we'll get Jim back on.
3:17
Speaker 1: While we're getting Jim back on, he was you.
3:22
Speaker 1: Let me know when you're back on.
3:23
Speaker 1: Jim, he bumped something.
3:27
Speaker 1: Make sure that cord's in there.
3:28
Speaker 1: Mr Weissmeyer, there you are.
3:30
Speaker 1: Can you hear me, jim?
3:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, jim, can you hear me?
3:41
Speaker 1: All right, we lost Jim Weissmeyer.
3:49
Speaker 1: Jim, your mic looks to be muted and I'm not sure why.
3:53
Speaker 1: There we go.
3:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can hear you.
3:57
Speaker 1: Nope, no, we can't hear Jim.
4:01
Speaker 1: All right, we're doing that, though.
4:03
Speaker 1: Let me go over the markets real quick While Jim's getting back on here.
4:16
Speaker 1: Interesting to see the markets Dece corn's up 9.5.
4:19
Speaker 1: No beans are up 13.
4:21
Speaker 1: Soybean oil's up and Kansas City wheat's up 4.
4:26
Speaker 1: And we have other markets like meal up and the Dow Jones down 200.
4:32
Speaker 1: We had a big down day in the cattle markets and we're looking to see cattle down 200 and feeder cattle down 500.
4:42
Speaker 1: So, with that emotional day there, jim, are you coming back up online?
4:46
Speaker 1: Can you hear me now?
4:47
Speaker 1: Oh, I hear you like a Verizon commercial.
4:49
Speaker 1: Okay, whatever you have, I hear you.
4:52
Speaker 1: Yep, I hear you, jim.
4:53
Speaker 1: Okay, now you've got to adjust your sound on your ears.
4:57
Speaker 1: So we hear you, yes.
5:00
Speaker 2: Now you can hear me right.
5:01
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, yep, can you hear us?
5:03
Speaker 2: Oh yeah.
5:04
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't know what's going on, that's okay.
5:07
Speaker 1: We can't kick you off the show.
5:08
Speaker 1: You know why.
5:09
Speaker 1: This is Weissmeyer's perspective, so you can have as many glitches as you want, doesn't bother me a bit, that's your business, kid, and we just got to keep rolling with it.
5:18
Speaker 1: Last thing I noticed a lot of people said stuff lost jobs.
5:25
Speaker 1: People are in the teaching world, business world.
5:28
Speaker 1: I don't think young people realize the ramifications of celebrating someone dying and acting upon like it's a good thing.
5:37
Speaker 1: I find that is a threat.
5:40
Speaker 2: It is.
5:40
Speaker 2: This is why it's a watershed moment.
5:42
Speaker 2: We're going to have to learn from it big time, and that means the leaders, that means the White House, that means Trump, and I think you'll see some changes out of Trump on this one.
5:50
Speaker 2: I think you're going to see a big announcement next week about getting together as Americans, and you've heard mostly positive signals coming from both political parties on this not all, but most.
6:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, very good, I don't want you to touch anything, but I still think you're talking out of your mic.
6:10
Speaker 2: I am, but we're going to keep it like this for now, until I get something settled.
6:15
Speaker 1: Okay, no worries, all right with that.
6:17
Speaker 1: Let's go over to USDA report.
6:18
Speaker 1: Here we go.
6:20
Speaker 1: Usda crop production report came out today and boy did they move the markets a little bit.
6:26
Speaker 1: It started off slow.
6:27
Speaker 1: We initially had some big numbers.
6:28
Speaker 1: Let's go over this chart, jim.
6:30
Speaker 2: Well, look, the big surprise from NASS, the National Ag Statistics Service, is the planted and harvested area.
6:38
Speaker 2: The yield went down for corn.
6:39
Speaker 2: But look at the change in both planting from the previous report in August and from the previous season.
6:53
Speaker 2: Well, the plantings are at almost 99 million acres.
6:55
Speaker 2: Almost 99 million acres.
6:59
Speaker 2: So while the corn yield went down 1.1 bushels, it shows the production went up what I think 87 million bushels.
7:01
Speaker 2: Now the market, I think you told me last, is up fairly high.
7:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, Eight, nine cents.
7:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, going up out up nine and three quarters in December.
7:11
Speaker 1: Corn, as we finish up the day here.
7:13
Speaker 2: Now we had good exports, good overall demand for corn.
7:17
Speaker 2: So I think they're probably looking ahead to the October report where some of these projected disease problems will cut into that.
7:27
Speaker 2: But look at the S.
7:28
Speaker 2: This is the World Board's S&D.
7:30
Speaker 2: The bottom line they're calling for greater corn supplies.
7:33
Speaker 2: The world boards S&D the bottom line they're calling for greater corn supplies, larger exports, which is good, and a slight reduction in ending stocks.
7:41
Speaker 2: And that's why I think you still have the firmness in the market because the trend is lower for stocks and you've got the production up 72 million from last month and a 2.1 bushel reduction in yield to 186.7.
7:54
Speaker 2: But that was offset by that increase in area, both plantings and harvesting.
8:01
Speaker 2: Let's go to the demand side.
8:03
Speaker 2: Look at their total.
8:04
Speaker 2: Us corn use is up 100 million bushels from last month.
8:09
Speaker 2: 16.1 billion Exports were raised.
8:12
Speaker 2: So despite our trade issues with a number of countries, we've got a rousing corn export market and with rising supplies, more than offset by greater use, ending stocks are down a little bit 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels.
8:29
Speaker 2: That's still a chunk of corn.
8:30
Speaker 2: By the way, their season average price forecast, that's its farm gate price, was unchanged at $3.90.
8:38
Speaker 2: That's a farm gate price.
8:40
Speaker 2: That means you'll have prices lower and higher than that on average is why USDA's NASS was so wrong on area planted.
8:48
Speaker 2: Now, remember we had the June acreage report and then we had the August big increase in planted area by NASS in August as they looked at the Farm Service Agency certification data.
9:07
Speaker 2: So I don't know whether it's a response problem on a survey or not.
9:12
Speaker 2: Some farmers tell me they don't like filling out that acreage survey because they know they have to certify their acres anyway.
9:19
Speaker 2: So you know, I've got some people telling me maybe USDA should wait until August to do the plantings because then they'll have the certified area from FSA.
9:31
Speaker 2: We'll see, because no data is better than bad data.
9:34
Speaker 2: So I think we need to look into why USDA was so off on planted acres.
9:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
9:42
Speaker 1: Let's move over to the soybeans.
9:44
Speaker 2: Soybeans.
9:45
Speaker 2: Again we got a drop in yield, but again we got to increase in area and harvested production.
9:53
Speaker 2: And we can look at the S&D the next slide there for USDA's WASDE and production is still at 4.3 billion bushels.
10:04
Speaker 2: That's up slightly because of the harvested area boost, even with a lower yield, and so the soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre is just down marginally.
10:16
Speaker 2: But again, this is early for soybeans.
10:19
Speaker 2: We'll see.
10:20
Speaker 2: The big report for soybeans will be in October.
10:23
Speaker 2: The soybean export forecast was lowered by 20 million bushels, reason Competition, and we haven't sold one bushel to China.
10:37
Speaker 2: But I reported this morning, tommy, that the Chinese negotiators are telling their counterparts in the US that if Xi Jinping, their leader, can work a deal with President Trump, they will come back to the US soybean market.
10:51
Speaker 2: Let's hope that's true.
10:52
Speaker 2: Let's hope it's sooner rather than later.
10:56
Speaker 1: With that.
10:56
Speaker 1: Just give folks a little update on the market.
10:58
Speaker 1: Corn's going out up 10.5 here as the market's closed Note, beans are going out up 13.
11:02
Speaker 1: Seeing some strength here late in the day in the wheat and nice way to go home for the weekend.
11:08
Speaker 1: That'll get people thinking It'd be really interesting to see what the analysts think.
11:14
Speaker 1: Get people thinking it'd be really interesting to see what the analyst I think.
11:17
Speaker 1: Do we dare try to change your microphone back to the your headset one?
11:18
Speaker 1: I can talk a little bit here and you, whatever that headset's called I think it's called sennheiser, if you look I don't see, I don't get.
11:26
Speaker 1: It's not government yeah, no, we, nothing there.
11:32
Speaker 1: All right we.
11:33
Speaker 1: We lost Jim while we're waiting for that.
11:36
Speaker 1: But, yeah, you back on your regular mic.
11:38
Speaker 1: We'll get Jim back here.
11:43
Speaker 1: Have a little hard time with this mic, but he'll be back.
11:46
Speaker 1: We don't hear Jim, but with that I shouldn't have double dog dared him and let him get on his mic.
11:54
Speaker 1: How's that?
11:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's good.
11:56
Speaker 1: Are you just back on your laptop?
11:58
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah.
11:59
Speaker 1: All right, don't touch anything Back to the show.
12:01
Speaker 1: Let's go to this Maha report.
12:04
Speaker 1: What are we talking about here, with this Maha report?
12:06
Speaker 2: Well, we got the second report and you talk about the leaked report.
12:10
Speaker 2: A few podcasts ago we detailed the leaked report and it basically was spot on, tommy.
12:17
Speaker 2: But I like to go on reactions.
12:19
Speaker 2: The first I want to tell you the biggest news.
12:22
Speaker 2: It's not this report, that's the most important.
12:24
Speaker 2: It's going to be the next one because of highly processed foods ultra processed foods they call it.
12:34
Speaker 2: We won't get a definition of that until later this year.
12:38
Speaker 2: Now, the best.
12:41
Speaker 2: Every ag group commented on this report and most of them were happy because of what it did not say about pesticides.
12:49
Speaker 2: So they were happy.
12:50
Speaker 2: They didn't even use the mention, the word glyphosate or atrazine.
12:55
Speaker 2: But the American Soybean Association and the pork producers, I thought, had the best comments.
13:01
Speaker 2: The ASA noted that it still remained concerned about the misinformed rhetoric, as they called it, from some commission members around edible soybean oil.
13:12
Speaker 2: They said not only is soybean oil backed by decades of science confirming its safety and nutritional value, et cetera, but it's a vital domestic market and they want to be careful because they know what's coming up in this definition when it's finally out, probably in October or November of ultra-processed foods.
13:32
Speaker 2: Now the pork producers they were uneasy about how the plan might influence perceptions of livestock production.
13:35
Speaker 2: About how the plan might influence perceptions of livestock production.
13:40
Speaker 2: They urged the administration to avoid proposals that would portray safe, regulated, affordable proteins such as pork, beef, et cetera, as part of the problem rather than the solution.
13:51
Speaker 2: So I thought those were two excellent cautionary tales for the next report.
14:01
Speaker 1: That's interesting.
14:02
Speaker 1: Let's look at this.
14:03
Speaker 1: We're going to have some news here.
14:04
Speaker 1: We might be able to cover it live.
14:04
Speaker 1: We might have some breaking news here in a little bit.
14:05
Speaker 1: Let's look at Screwworm Update.
14:07
Speaker 1: What's going on out there today?
14:09
Speaker 2: Well, secretary Robbins at USDA is in Oklahoma as we speak and she's going to have a media availability.
14:17
Speaker 2: Well, let's see it's starting as we are talking right now.
14:21
Speaker 2: Now she's going to give an update regarding the Trump administration's response to that new world, the screwworm I'm going to listen to.
14:29
Speaker 2: Hopefully, that screwworm is not any closer to the US border than it has been in the past.
14:36
Speaker 2: Maybe it's going south rather than north.
14:39
Speaker 2: I'm going to listen to see if they say that She'll probably announce progress on some of the money and they're pouring a lot of money in that but they should be focused on this because it would be very detrimental to our livestock industry.
14:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a big one and we may have breaking news live on the show here.
14:59
Speaker 1: So let's just take a minute for station identification.
15:02
Speaker 1: You got Tommy Grisafi here.
15:04
Speaker 1: Jim Wiesmeyer, of course.
15:05
Speaker 1: If you want to get a hold of Jim, jim has the Wiesmeyer newsletter and you are listening to Wiesmeyer's Perspectives.
15:11
Speaker 1: Emotional day here, emotional week here.
15:15
Speaker 1: But Jim pumped out information.
15:18
Speaker 1: Boy, did you put out a lot of information last Sunday?
15:20
Speaker 1: Could you not sleep or something?
15:22
Speaker 1: What happened to you?
15:24
Speaker 2: I had some things that I worked up that I've been wanting to ride on.
15:27
Speaker 2: It was like China you know how the lack of purchases are really affecting the soybean market and soybean farmers and soybean trade association.
15:40
Speaker 2: And it showed me with research, tommy, that you can't make up the difference that China has to our market with individual sales to other countries.
15:52
Speaker 2: At the most you can offset maybe 50% of the previous China sales, but not all.
15:57
Speaker 2: That means that I think the number one issue for soybeans is get an agreement again between the US and China and have better import mechanisms.
16:08
Speaker 2: That's what that report showed me.
16:10
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's see if we have some slides on that.
16:14
Speaker 1: So we got our screwworm.
16:15
Speaker 1: We got the USDA.
16:16
Speaker 1: Watch out for breaking news.
16:18
Speaker 1: There we're talking screwworm, not a fun subject, but 1.30 here.
16:23
Speaker 1: In the next 10 minutes we may have something.
16:25
Speaker 1: A lot of talk about interest rates, my friend.
16:28
Speaker 1: A lot of talk about interest rates.
16:30
Speaker 1: Fomc meeting 9, 16, and 17.
16:34
Speaker 1: Coming up, old Jay Powell, he's just what's he doing, just going along for the ride.
16:37
Speaker 1: He's just what's he doing, just going along for the ride.
16:40
Speaker 2: Well, I say in my speeches and I try to be charitable that he's a smart guy.
16:44
Speaker 2: He's just been dumb when it comes to interest rates, that they need to be lowered, and even Jerome J Powell knows that they should lower interest rates.
16:55
Speaker 2: On the 17th they have a two-day meeting, but they always have the announcement on the second day, which is September 17th.
16:59
Speaker 2: The market is widely expecting a 25 basis point cut Now.
17:06
Speaker 2: I think it could have been even higher had it not been for that consumer price index report this week, because you saw inflation picked up in August and I think we have the chart on that.
17:20
Speaker 2: But bottom line, your unemployment is going up.
17:24
Speaker 2: Your labor situation is giving signals that the US economy is weakening and that's when the Fed has to look at that and they'll start Now.
17:34
Speaker 2: I was at a food conference the future of food in Texas earlier this week a fantastic conference and ING Economics.
17:42
Speaker 2: They forecast a 75 basis point cut between now and the end of the year in interest rates and another 50 basis point cut in 2026.
17:54
Speaker 2: So that means eventually pretty good better news for US farmers and their financing needs for the 2026 season.
18:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's good news and that's going to help with everything.
18:07
Speaker 1: That also is probably going to really spur the housing market, correct?
18:12
Speaker 2: Oh, definitely.
18:12
Speaker 2: You're starting to see that, as the supply of houses increases and pent-up demand and the ability to afford it as well, that's always a key.
18:25
Speaker 2: That's why I'm a little more optimistic about the US economy probably after the first quarter next year than many of these smart economists, because you've got lower interest rates coming, you've got energy costs going down although not fertilizer costs for the farmer and you've got, as I said, lower interest rate, but the tax cuts that are coming out and being implemented further.
18:50
Speaker 2: So once we have stability in trade policy it's just too volatile right now.
18:58
Speaker 2: I think then more than a few businesses will be able to breathe, knowing the rules of trade, and then they're going to say, okay, now we can plan, we can hire more people, we can come out with different products and things like that the entrepreneurial spirit.
19:16
Speaker 2: So let's hope that's the case.
19:19
Speaker 2: As far as that trade spirit.
19:23
Speaker 2: So let's hope that's the case.
19:24
Speaker 2: As far as that trade, we're going to have the Supreme Court rule, probably now by the end of this year, in an accelerated decision on whether or not Trump's use of emergency measures to invoke those tariffs were within his portfolio, whether or not he could do it.
19:37
Speaker 2: We're going to have initial casings filed September 19th.
19:42
Speaker 2: October 20th is another key date, but early November is when the Supreme Court is going to hear oral arguments on the challenge that people have had on Trump's use of these tariffs.
19:55
Speaker 2: And it's big because it's going to determine whether or not, if Trump loses, he's going to have to take other of his tools that are available in order to keep some of those tariffs on.
20:08
Speaker 2: But once we know that Tommy you know as a businessman once you know the rules, then you can plan.
20:15
Speaker 2: You can't plan that much right now.
20:18
Speaker 1: And it's affecting farmers with selling their grain.
20:20
Speaker 1: Tell us how much of a payment we're getting.
20:21
Speaker 1: Can't plan that much right now, no, and it's affecting farmers with selling their grain.
20:23
Speaker 1: Tell us how much of a payment we're getting.
20:24
Speaker 2: And maybe farmers are profitable and don't even know it because the government payment's going to be so good, or the emergency government payment, maybe there's not going to be a payment we need to know, jim, I can't guarantee you many things out of Washington DC, but I will guarantee you that a combination of either a White House trade mitigation program again like we saw relative to the China trade war where they pumped out $28 billion and or from Congress later this year but it's going to come later this year because they need to initially replenish the Commodity Credit Corporation borrowing authority.
21:03
Speaker 2: It's set at $30 billion but it's down to the single digits right now.
21:08
Speaker 2: Now Congress always replenish the funding in an ag appropriations bill and that's in the process.
21:16
Speaker 2: So by the end of the year we'll have a replenishment of the CCC.
21:21
Speaker 2: So if Congress legislates another economic aid package, they can tap the Commodity Credit Corporation.
21:31
Speaker 2: I've said in the past that maybe Trump could utilize some of these tariff revenue funds.
21:37
Speaker 2: But you've got Capitol Hill saying well, we've read the language and that's difficult.
21:44
Speaker 2: In a report I put out this morning, I gave them legislative language to change it in order to do it.
21:50
Speaker 2: In other words, congress, get off your duff and write some legislative language that allows them to tap this tariff revenue if it's ruled legally.
22:01
Speaker 2: Again, we won't know that until late this year.
22:04
Speaker 2: So I'll keep on saying later this year, but I'll tell you wherever I go and I've been to more than a few states already this past month there's a cash flow problem in row crop production and you know a number of farmers, I know the listeners and viewers.
22:20
Speaker 2: Some of them I don't think the majority some of them will say well, we want trade, not aid.
22:25
Speaker 2: I hear you and most of Washington hears you, and I know you want to get it from the marketplace.
22:30
Speaker 2: But markets are fickle and look at all the uncertainties that the ag sector is being faced with Significant uncertainty on trade policy.
22:41
Speaker 2: You've got high interest rates.
22:42
Speaker 2: You've got input prices, fertilizer especially on the rise.
22:47
Speaker 2: You've got a good crop I'll never call that necessarily bad but you've got a building carryover or a hefty carryover on that.
22:57
Speaker 2: That'll put pressure.
22:58
Speaker 2: So upside is limited.
23:00
Speaker 2: And so areas of the country that don't have the river markets right by them or don't have an ethanol plant in their backyard, they're hurting.
23:10
Speaker 2: They're hurting big time.
23:11
Speaker 1: So that's why we need support.
23:13
Speaker 1: Let me show you where I'm sitting today.
23:15
Speaker 1: I'm right in one of those hurting areas.
23:17
Speaker 1: I even got a chart of it.
23:18
Speaker 1: I'm sitting in Mayville, North Dakota, and look at where this dot shows up.
23:22
Speaker 2: This is where I'm at, and this is not good for our cash markets that's the drain of revenue, and no economic assistance package can ever make a farmer whole.
23:37
Speaker 2: I hate when I read that there's a bailout program for farmers.
23:41
Speaker 2: Don't ever use that word.
23:44
Speaker 1: When we call it a get less worse.
23:47
Speaker 2: Cash flow help.
23:47
Speaker 2: Cash flow help, you know, and it's food is a national security and that's why you have.
23:54
Speaker 2: President Trump knows that he's going to go along if, the if, the if, the need is there and it's there and you've got.
24:01
Speaker 2: I don't care whether it's a Democratic or Republican lawmaker.
24:04
Speaker 2: They're hearing from agricultural bankers big time and they have dumbo ears when it comes to the ag bankers because they know them, they trust them and there's a cash flow need to get to bridge, if you will, between now and the planting of 2026 crops.
24:22
Speaker 2: Maybe by that time we will have more certainty on those issues that we keep talking about.
24:29
Speaker 2: Trade policy maybe we'll have a US-China trade agreement by the time corn and soybeans are planted in 2026.
24:37
Speaker 2: We'll be in the process of lower interest rates.
24:40
Speaker 2: We'll be in the implementation phase of the tax cuts and other entrepreneurial and pro-business aspects of what I call OB3, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and then we'll be ongoing into the deregulation area, because the Trump administration, especially at EPA, is trying to deregulate as fast as possible.
25:07
Speaker 2: You know, I was on a program earlier today.
25:09
Speaker 2: Tommy and I mentioned farm machinery.
25:11
Speaker 2: On a program earlier today, tommy and I mentioned farm machinery.
25:15
Speaker 2: I got several emails saying US farm equipment has to jump through regulatory hurdles.
25:19
Speaker 2: In other words, higher cost than the same equipment that goes to South America.
25:24
Speaker 2: Now I'm going to be working on a story about that.
25:26
Speaker 2: I want to see the differential.
25:28
Speaker 2: So farmers are faced with a higher cost across the board as it comes to that.
25:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, jim, by chance, did you see I don't know if it was last week, last Sunday when a reporter asked President Trump about the high price of beef and he looked at prices?
25:46
Speaker 1: If he didn't know, I mean, obviously he's not going to the grocery store, he hasn't went to the grocery store in 30, 40 years right.
25:54
Speaker 2: He did say that, yeah, he tells me and he loves steak, by the way, and he puts ketchup on his steak.
26:00
Speaker 2: Don't tell me.
26:01
Speaker 2: Ask me why I have no idea, can I tell?
26:03
Speaker 2: You a secret.
26:04
Speaker 1: You promise you won't tell anyone.
26:05
Speaker 1: I will.
26:06
Speaker 2: I promise 300 people watching right now.
26:12
Speaker 2: I put barbecue sauce on my steak.
26:13
Speaker 2: That's not too bad.
26:13
Speaker 2: It's better than ketchup, I think.
26:14
Speaker 2: But anyway he he did say his remarks last week that he'll do something about it.
26:22
Speaker 2: No, I don't think it's not like eggs, where you can do some policy moves and things like that.
26:28
Speaker 2: It takes a while for the cattle market to turn around.
26:31
Speaker 2: We're going to have to teach him the cattle cycle.
26:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, and when we had an egg problem I don't want to exaggerate, but I think we imported eggs from like 12 countries- Big, big imports, Like NASA.
26:44
Speaker 1: Canada, sweden here I don't want to make up stuff, but we're not even letting cattle.
26:48
Speaker 1: That's what Secretary Rollins is meeting about right now, if she says anything about letting cattle over the border or not letting cattle over the border.
26:56
Speaker 1: Cattle had a bad day in the markets today, but for how high they are, that's just normal to go down that much once in a while.
27:03
Speaker 1: Right?
27:03
Speaker 1: Speaking of cattle, let's go to the other meat bacon here.
27:06
Speaker 1: What's the news here?
27:07
Speaker 1: Pork producers in town.
27:08
Speaker 2: Well, they're seeing now.
27:10
Speaker 2: It was not so long ago that bacon was being taken out of a lot of meals and at the restaurants and the quick restaurant, quick eating restaurants.
27:19
Speaker 2: But now it's coming back in because the supply is there.
27:23
Speaker 2: The biggest issue for the pork producers they're in town.
27:26
Speaker 2: They had a hundred producers or so in town, as they do every year about this time, to go through their key policy issues and their biggest one I'm not saying their only one, the biggest one is Prop 12, the California cages, and they are looking to the Farm Bill 2.0 for House Ag Committee Chairman GT Thompson, Republican from Pennsylvania, to put language in to deal with that issue.
27:50
Speaker 2: I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think that that will come about.
27:54
Speaker 2: I think we're going to have to live with Prop 12.
27:57
Speaker 1: So that's my bottom line Prop 12,.
27:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, and for people watching or listening who aren't necessarily familiar with Prop 12, can you give us a 15-second?
28:09
Speaker 2: Well, it says you have to have caged animals, it has to have a certain size for the sow and the industry for California.
28:18
Speaker 2: And the industry has had to really spend a lot of money in California to comply with that ruling.
28:24
Speaker 2: And if you don't outside California then you can't sell into the California market.
28:31
Speaker 2: So there's been a split on that.
28:34
Speaker 2: That's why every time I go to California for a meeting Tommy, at their breakfast buffet I eat all the bacon I can just to get back to them With that slimming figure here.
28:48
Speaker 1: EPA and biofuels, sir.
28:51
Speaker 2: Oh, we're going to.
28:52
Speaker 2: Reuters had a story earlier this week.
28:54
Speaker 2: The key issue now is by the end of October we're going to have some more details on the 26 and 27, what they call set two renewable fuel standard program.
29:04
Speaker 2: Included in that is going to be how much is going to be reallocated relative to the waivers that you had for small refineries.
29:14
Speaker 2: Now Reuters had a speculation piece that maybe the bigger refiners have to make up about 50% of those waivers that have been given to small refineries.
29:28
Speaker 2: That's something to be seen.
29:30
Speaker 2: Now the biofuel industry wants 100% because they see less demand on those waivers.
29:39
Speaker 2: So we'll see what the final result is going to be, because you need to keep that near that 15 billion gallon mandated level for the utilization of corn ethanol.
29:50
Speaker 2: But for the future the renewable fuel standard is going to have to be challenged to rebrand itself or octane for other purposes, a higher blend, e15, year round.
30:03
Speaker 2: Senator Chuck Grassley, republican from Iowa, is going to put language in a defense bill that would authorize year-round E15.
30:14
Speaker 2: California will eventually.
30:17
Speaker 2: Their legislature has approved E15, period.
30:22
Speaker 2: They were the only state that didn't allow any E15.
30:25
Speaker 2: But in my research, as you saw over the weekend, I had time to spend on that, the implementation of E15, and it's a big market in California.
30:34
Speaker 2: I mean, we're talking big bushels and gallons.
30:37
Speaker 2: It won't really occur until 2026, but it's on the horizon.
30:42
Speaker 2: That's a good thing.
30:44
Speaker 2: So, overall, for the agribusiness sector, we're in a supply issue.
30:50
Speaker 2: So you have to increase exports and you have to increase domestic utilization and that's what gets you into the renewable fuel standard program that we're talking about.
31:00
Speaker 2: It gets you into the sustainable aviation fuel.
31:04
Speaker 2: And when I ask about that I say where are the regulations and the IRS and Treasury to people because remember, it's a tax incentive program, so those rules have to come out from the Treasury, irs departments.
31:19
Speaker 2: They're so busy and bogged down with reduced staff, by the way, with implementing all the tax cuts that came out from the One Big, beautiful Bill Act, that I don't think now it'll be until the first quarter of 2026 before we see the final regulations for the 45Z program or the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Program.
31:43
Speaker 2: Now there is something to watch out for legislatively in Congress.
31:47
Speaker 2: Know that the One Big, beautiful Bill Act cut the tax incentive for sustainable aviation fuel from $1.75 to a buck.
31:57
Speaker 2: Now a number of people in the industry said, boy, that really hurt the economics of that program.
32:05
Speaker 2: There will be an effort to boost that level.
32:08
Speaker 2: I don't know whether it's going back to $1.75 or not, but that's something to watch out for, tommy, and at end of year must pass bill.
32:17
Speaker 2: That's why we always watch those must pass bills.
32:20
Speaker 1: That'd be interesting.
32:21
Speaker 1: Hey, folks, we're getting to the end of the show but we're going to open it up for questions.
32:24
Speaker 1: And you said, jim, you said I had the YouTube locked down too hard.
32:29
Speaker 1: Of course we want people to subscribe to the channel, we want you to subscribe to the YouTube channel and everything else, but if you weren't subscribed you couldn't ask us a question.
32:39
Speaker 1: So we're going to trust you're all good folks.
32:40
Speaker 1: Jim said open the damn door so people can comment.
32:44
Speaker 1: And so with that, if you'd like to comment, ask a question.
32:47
Speaker 1: We already have a few questions in there.
32:49
Speaker 1: Please be polite.
32:50
Speaker 1: The world's had a rough enough week already this week.
32:52
Speaker 1: But whatever you want to throw a zinger at us, I'm sure Mr Wiesmeyer and I can handle it.
32:56
Speaker 1: So lightning round here.
32:58
Speaker 1: We have a couple more subjects I have in my notes here.
33:00
Speaker 1: Japan is that?
33:01
Speaker 1: Did we get something good done there, sir?
33:03
Speaker 2: Well, you recall, they finally signed.
33:05
Speaker 2: Both countries signed an agreement.
33:07
Speaker 2: The White House issued an executive order on it.
33:10
Speaker 2: But here's where I think the general ag media has been wrong on this one.
33:16
Speaker 2: If you hear that Japan agreed to purchase $8 billion in additional US farm products corn, soybeans, ethanol that's incorrect.
33:26
Speaker 2: It's not additional.
33:27
Speaker 2: It's not additional.
33:29
Speaker 1: Explain to us Talk to us about where five it's not additional.
33:31
Speaker 2: Explain to us, talk to us like we're five, and traditionally Japan has purchased well above that $12, $11 to $13 billion.
33:38
Speaker 2: So it's kind of an optics thing.
33:40
Speaker 2: There's not much more to that than the verbiage Like a show game.
33:45
Speaker 2: It's not all truthful, so don't get your hopes up.
33:48
Speaker 2: Japan's still a very good customer, I'm going to not deny them.
33:52
Speaker 2: They're very good customers of corn and soybeans, et cetera.
33:57
Speaker 2: Now rice came out a winner because they've actually got a real increase commitment by Japan for US rice.
34:04
Speaker 2: So, yeah, that's a good one.
34:07
Speaker 2: And ethanol continues to be a winner in a number of these trade agreements, so that's a good thing for the biofuel industry.
34:17
Speaker 1: Okay.
34:17
Speaker 1: And so when you say you know the truth is there, I kind of think of Al Pacino and Scarface.
34:22
Speaker 1: When he says I always tell the truth, even when I lie, you think that's what's going on over there.
34:28
Speaker 2: It's creative press releases and that's why you know over 50 years of watching them.
34:33
Speaker 2: I'm always challenging words, tommy, but a number of farmers emailed me saying is that really an additional $8 billion?
34:44
Speaker 2: Because they apparently knew that Japan I should have said Japan was buying $11, $12, $13 billion of US farm commodities.
34:53
Speaker 2: So that got me checking the language, and nowhere in that executive order does it include the word additional.
35:02
Speaker 1: So, that's.
35:03
Speaker 2: That's the truth there.
35:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will tell you a number of in my speeches.
35:09
Speaker 2: Now a number of the listeners and viewers have come up to me tell me they like the podcast, and also some of you who asked to get on my newsletter.
35:17
Speaker 2: I think I got most of you, but I've been out for about two and a half days at a Food for the Future conference and I get about 1,300 emails not all important each day and I'm going through them each day and I'm going through them.
35:35
Speaker 2: So by the end of this weekend, if your name isn't being included in my distribution list, it will be by Monday.
35:39
Speaker 1: I love it.
35:39
Speaker 1: That's Jim Wiesmeyer Wiesmeyer at Gmail.
35:42
Speaker 1: All right, we got a few more things to talk about here as we go into the lightning round.
35:46
Speaker 1: Ask us a question.
35:47
Speaker 1: Then, of course, I want to brag a little bit.
35:49
Speaker 1: I'm proud of my team.
35:51
Speaker 1: My brother, my wife, gina's now working with us and our new website's up there and we got some premium content.
35:58
Speaker 1: The we Smire podcast is currently free, but we do a lot more podcasts than that.
36:02
Speaker 1: We just don't let them out to the general public.
36:04
Speaker 1: So if you go to wwwagbullcom for $25 a month or the bargain price of $2.50 a year, for $25 a month or the bargain price of $2.50 a year, you can get the premium content that AgBull Media and AgBull Trading are now offering.
36:18
Speaker 1: Of course, we're an AP of Nesvick Trading Group based out of Memphis, tennessee, and we're having fun, jim.
36:23
Speaker 1: So we got that premium content going With that.
36:26
Speaker 1: Let's open it up to lightning round.
36:27
Speaker 1: We got some nice questions.
36:30
Speaker 1: Folks ask us some questions.
36:31
Speaker 1: Let's go with Luke.
36:31
Speaker 1: Mr Luke, until we fix issues with row crops in the fringe acres, it likely means more corn and bean acres in the south, cotton, peanuts, rice in the north, canola lentils, small grains, edible beans, etc.
36:44
Speaker 1: What do you think of that comment there?
36:47
Speaker 2: I think it's accurate.
36:49
Speaker 2: You know, the more I thought about the tremendous amount of corn plantings this year.
36:55
Speaker 2: I think farmers were looking into the US-China fisticuffs, if you will, in the trade policy arena, and they probably decided, if they were tilted, either corn or soybeans.
37:10
Speaker 2: They went for corn because they knew soybeans could be under the belt relative to trade with China.
37:18
Speaker 2: So that could correct itself next year, hopefully if we get the US-China trade agreement.
37:24
Speaker 2: And as far as the I would never say fringe areas, yes, I just wouldn't say that.
37:29
Speaker 2: North Dakota, if you put a person in North Dakota's cornfield in about this to August and you don't know what state you're in, it's where you're, in Iowa or Illinois.
37:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll tell you a story.
37:43
Speaker 1: I was at Big Iron Farm Show this week and I've been meeting with clients.
37:47
Speaker 1: But a certain seed company did a test plot and the yield came out so high this is a funny story.
37:54
Speaker 1: This is really a great story about agriculture and farmers.
37:57
Speaker 1: But the test plot came out so high that they thought if they wrote it on the board and then posted it they go to each plot and they do their count that they thought people would think they're lying.
38:07
Speaker 1: So they actually went 20 bushels under what the facts were.
38:11
Speaker 1: So their neighbors, friends, local people wouldn't give them a hard time.
38:14
Speaker 1: There's some big bushels up here in North Dakota right now.
38:17
Speaker 2: Oh, absolutely.
38:18
Speaker 1: And that's questions here.
38:19
Speaker 1: I like it All right, here we go.
38:21
Speaker 1: Well, this is more of a statement, and Carl just saying that this will be a bad winner to be an ag banker.
38:28
Speaker 1: Well, I'm at a bank.
38:29
Speaker 1: I'm at first state bank in Mayville, here at the.
38:32
Speaker 1: My office is upstairs, agble Trading's office is upstairs.
38:35
Speaker 1: Agble Podcast is going on downstairs.
38:38
Speaker 1: Thanks for the comment.
38:38
Speaker 1: Now here's a first-time listener, long-time listener, first-time caller Smile, tommy.
38:44
Speaker 1: Why did corn settle for the week over the 100-day average?
38:46
Speaker 1: After a tepid report?
38:48
Speaker 1: What's the rumpus?
38:49
Speaker 1: Now?
38:50
Speaker 1: I was trading here, so we had some problems.
38:53
Speaker 1: When we started to show One, I was still trading the markets.
38:55
Speaker 1: Two, jim's mic wasn't working, and when that doesn't go well and you see there's 300, 400 people watching, you get a little nervous.
39:02
Speaker 1: But thanks, t Barry for commenting.
39:05
Speaker 1: And yeah, above the 100-day average.
39:08
Speaker 1: So we get massive, massive.
39:10
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that real quick.
39:11
Speaker 1: We get massive bearish news.
39:17
Speaker 1: Look at this bearish news.
39:17
Speaker 1: And yet corn traded up 10.
39:19
Speaker 1: Now, late in the afternoon we did go from up 10 to only up eight and but you know, only up eight.
39:26
Speaker 1: That is a big win for American agriculture.
39:28
Speaker 2: Oh, absolutely.
39:28
Speaker 2: Is it a sucker play, or not?
39:31
Speaker 1: Well, I have a trading account, I'm allowed to trade and the markets are now closed and it's a to-be-continued to Sunday night at 7 o'clock.
39:39
Speaker 1: But it is an opportunity for folks who do need to get more hedged, more protected, lock in some price.
39:45
Speaker 1: Anytime we're rallying during harvest, it's a good feeling.
39:48
Speaker 1: There's also incredible carry in the market and with that last call, if you'd like to ask us a question, go ahead.
39:57
Speaker 1: Mr Jim Wiesmeyer and I and then with that I will, jim after the show, I'm going to take down this show and then I'm going to edit it and I'm going to send it back to your listeners and get rid of those first few minutes.
40:08
Speaker 1: And as you say, just leave it like it was, and they could watch us struggle.
40:13
Speaker 2: We'll trim it down, much like at the Food for the Future conference.
40:18
Speaker 2: I'm telling you, tommy, bottom line, we can talk about it more in the next podcast, but you talk about a significant conference.
40:24
Speaker 2: These weight reduction pills are going to make a major difference in the decades not years, decades ahead, and it'll affect agriculture because it leads to less overall food consumption minimal plates, smaller plates, which I need.
40:45
Speaker 2: It increases health aspects on not just your diet and your weight, but a whole portfolio of potential diseases and for the people that I listen to, yes, and we're just starting, we're going to have individualized medicine as a result of artificial intelligence and it's going to have a big impact on the world, let alone food.
41:11
Speaker 2: But it still increases protein because if you get on these weight reduction shots, pills, later on this year, you actually need even more protein and that's good for US agriculture.
41:28
Speaker 1: I like it.
41:28
Speaker 1: All right, mr Jim Wiesmeyer there from Wiesmeyer's Perspectives and he has his newsletter.
41:33
Speaker 1: If you still need to get on that, jim said, just send them a email here.
41:38
Speaker 1: That's down there, but here's how you do it and with that we'll be doing this.
41:42
Speaker 1: Jim and I travel a lot, so we're going to have a little hard time being consistent.
41:45
Speaker 1: It's not always going to be Wednesday at 11 or Thursday, or I'm a broker and a trader in the market, so if it gets busy, you know we're going to have a general time.
41:53
Speaker 1: But I've been asked.
41:54
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, jim.
41:55
Speaker 1: I've been asked to speak a lot more and you'd be proud of me.
41:57
Speaker 1: I actually raised my speaking fee.
42:00
Speaker 1: Someone offered me a little, you know a few thousand.
42:02
Speaker 1: I said it's not enough, I can't.
42:10
Speaker 1: I can't.
42:10
Speaker 1: It costs me more, your price enough that it better be worth their time to have you.
42:14
Speaker 1: They better be serious and I believe you and I both have the same we work with Rich Teller over at Ag Speakers.
42:21
Speaker 2: Network.
42:21
Speaker 2: Yes, and to tell you feedback, what's that?
42:25
Speaker 2: I have good time.
42:26
Speaker 2: They're great people.
42:27
Speaker 2: By the way, you mentioned, last week a North Dakota group was coming to town and they emailed me, mentioned mentioned the program and they asked me if I would meet with them at a restaurant next week and of course, I said if I'm in town and I am, I'm going to meet with them, I think whatever Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
42:46
Speaker 2: So absolutely, I want to hear with my ears the issues that are important in our dakota producers yeah, absolutely.
42:54
Speaker 1: Hey, folks, do me a favor, check out our new website, wwwagbullcom.
42:59
Speaker 1: We got our premium content up there, but the weishmeyer perspectives is still free.
43:04
Speaker 1: You think it'll always be free, jim, or you got something up your sleeve just we don't never say never, never say never.
43:11
Speaker 2: But my perspective is, my news thing is a give back to how agriculture has been so, so nice to me for 50 years.
43:20
Speaker 2: I grew up with it and they've been more than nice to me, so I want to keep it free as long as I possibly can.
43:29
Speaker 1: Excellent.
43:29
Speaker 1: Well, after a rough, emotional week 9-11, the passing of Charlie, we had a.
43:34
Speaker 1: Is it okay to call it an assassination?
43:36
Speaker 1: Is that what happened?
43:37
Speaker 2: Jim, it's a political assassination.
43:39
Speaker 2: I don't care what anybody else says it was.
43:42
Speaker 1: UFTA, as they say in North Dakota.
43:44
Speaker 1: I'll see you next week, my friend.
43:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see you.