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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Seventy four due to an accident. Chuck Ingram fifty five
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  Speaker 1: KRSS the Talk Station.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, twenty eight Here fifty five KRC the Talk Station.
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  Speaker 2: It is Tuesday. Staying in the obvious regular listeners know
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  Speaker 2: it is that time of week. We get to talk
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  Speaker 2: to retire lieun Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis and doing what
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  Speaker 2: he calls in his podcast, what I call the alliterative podcast.
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  Speaker 2: It is the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Welcome back, my
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  Speaker 2: dear friend. It's always a pleasure to having you on
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  Speaker 2: the fifty five KRS Morning Show.
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  Speaker 3: I look forward to this more than my own shows.
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  Speaker 2: I think, y you're so kind, Daniel. I enjoy the
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  Speaker 2: back and forth. Although we haven't been able to solve
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  Speaker 2: the problems in the world over the year or two
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  Speaker 2: that we've been doing this, it is a thoroughly welcome
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  Speaker 2: exchange of well real time and genuine information about what's
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  Speaker 2: going on in the world. I see Donald Trump, and
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  Speaker 2: I want to start with Ukraine and the efforts to
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  Speaker 2: negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. This, obviously,
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  Speaker 2: you've been talking about for a very long time, the
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  Speaker 2: United States providing a security guarantee for Ukraine, i'llah Article
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  Speaker 2: five of an ATO Defense Alliance treaty. This requires NATO
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  Speaker 2: country and much in the if they were a member
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  Speaker 2: of NATO, it would go along with the security guarantee.
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  Speaker 2: If one country gets attacked, we all come to the defense.
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  Speaker 2: This is not Ukraine joining NATO but getting the benefits
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  Speaker 2: of the Article five security agreement, which means, effectively, aren't
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  Speaker 2: they getting the best benefit of being a NATO country
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  Speaker 2: without formally calling them that.
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  Speaker 3: Well, listen, Brian, I'm gonna put this in the category
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  Speaker 3: of I'll believe it when I see it, right, because
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  Speaker 3: I mean, we're not gonna President Trump has been emphatic
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  Speaker 3: from the beginning of saying that NATO is a no go,
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  Speaker 3: that NATO was one of the strong causes of this
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  Speaker 3: war in the first place because of the threat that
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  Speaker 3: Russia felt. He said he understood that. So the last
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  Speaker 3: thing I think that he's going to do is to
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  Speaker 3: give any kind of a security guarantee that's quasi NATO,
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  Speaker 3: whether you call it NATO or not. But if it
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  Speaker 3: has anything like an actual teethy Article five, I just
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  Speaker 3: can't see. I mean, I literally see no chance. So
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  Speaker 3: I hear I've seen those statements in report rest reports,
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  Speaker 3: but nobody has provided the details yet of what that
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  Speaker 3: actually means, what it looks like. And I imagine when
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  Speaker 3: you do, you'll see a whole lot of water being
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  Speaker 3: poured on some of these guarantees, because I don't think
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  Speaker 3: they're gonna be worth the paper they're written on if
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  Speaker 3: they ever even see the light of day.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, fair enough, And we'll wait to see what happens
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  Speaker 2: with that, because that's the concern I have. That's effectively
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  Speaker 2: that's our that's our foray into World War three right there,
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  Speaker 2: much in the same way if they were remembers now.
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  Speaker 1: And plus Russia would never agree to it.
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  Speaker 3: If you're looking for something that people are going to
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  Speaker 3: agree to, they would never agree to that.
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  Speaker 1: So it's it's dead on.
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  Speaker 2: A rival, all right. Fair enough? Now. The other thing
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  Speaker 2: I wanted to pivot over to along the same lines,
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  Speaker 2: this artic Wall Street Journal article from yesterday, After a
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  Speaker 2: generation of Peace of Europe tells it's people to prepare
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  Speaker 2: for war. They are ramping up their concerns, all the
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  Speaker 2: elected officials, folks of the European Union about well, the
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  Speaker 2: Russians are coming over the hill. They're getting ready to
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  Speaker 2: invade US and Frederick Mertz to Germany the chancellor. If
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine falls, he won't job putting, just like the student
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  Speaker 2: plan wasn't enough. In nineteen thirty eight, referring to Adolf
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  Speaker 2: Hitler's invasion of portion of Czechoslovakia, NATO Secretary General Mark
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  Speaker 2: Ruddy said, conflict is at our door. We must be
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  Speaker 2: prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great
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  Speaker 2: grandparents endured. I mean, they're talking World War three level
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  Speaker 2: conflict here now. During our prior conversations, Daniel, you've kind
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  Speaker 2: of suggested, and I've been tending to agree with you,
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  Speaker 2: that Russia is not going to invade Poland, which was
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  Speaker 2: one of the countries they said was gonna be the
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  Speaker 2: next Domino to follow or to fall. It's taken him
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  Speaker 2: so long to accomplish what they've gotten in Ukraine so far.
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  Speaker 2: If they do attack a NATO country, they have all
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  Speaker 2: of the NATO countries under the Article five Security Agreement
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  Speaker 2: coming up to defend whichever country is attacked first. It
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  Speaker 2: doesn't sound like a recipe for success with Russia.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know.
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  Speaker 2: That's why we've got you, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and listen to all those things you just mentioned.
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  Speaker 3: Add this morning you had the new head of mi
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  Speaker 3: I six say that Russia is the pacing threat and
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  Speaker 3: the biggest concern that they have on an intelligence basis,
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  Speaker 3: and then Air Vice Marshall for the UK said that listen,
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  Speaker 3: we have to be ready to sack it.
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  Speaker 1: And I'm not making this up.
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  Speaker 3: Sacrifice our sons and daughters if necessary in order to
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  Speaker 3: keep us safe from Russia.
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  Speaker 1: We're that kind of an issue.
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  Speaker 3: So it's gaining momentum, all these threats and warnings, et cetera,
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  Speaker 3: that they're openly telling their people in the UK they
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  Speaker 3: have to be ready to sacrifice their sons and daughters
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  Speaker 3: for this war that should never be fought. So the
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  Speaker 3: issue is quite alarming and it's something that needs to
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  Speaker 3: get cushed quickly. But look Russia has said, and just
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  Speaker 3: in the past, I guess seven or eight days Putin
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  Speaker 3: has said again mocked, he goes this idea, I don't
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  Speaker 3: Why would I even want to go into any of
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  Speaker 3: your countries?
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  Speaker 1: We don't.
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  Speaker 3: And then he said, but if you come to us
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  Speaker 3: and you fight us.
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  Speaker 1: We will fight.
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  Speaker 3: We are ready today and we will fight that war
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  Speaker 3: we don't want, but guaranteed that we will and when
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  Speaker 3: you look at their capability, and I'm talking to you.
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  Speaker 1: Not just how many tank planes and the troops that
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  Speaker 1: people have.
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  Speaker 3: Those are important, but what is crucial, absolutely vital in
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  Speaker 3: a war of potential war of attrition, is to your
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  Speaker 3: defense industrial base and how many men you have. And
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  Speaker 3: Russia dwarfs the entirety of NATO in those categories, and
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  Speaker 3: of course they have all the combat experience and we
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  Speaker 3: have almost none, just little inciliary by watching Ukraine, but
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  Speaker 3: that's about it, but none of us actually doing it.
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  Speaker 3: So we are not ready to fight a war, and
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  Speaker 3: if people want to get one and start one, we're
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  Speaker 3: not going to do well in this. Let me just
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  Speaker 3: tell you right off the bat.
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  Speaker 2: Well, then, what is the purposes of all this what
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  Speaker 2: I will call dangerous rhetoric from the European Union elected officials?
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  Speaker 2: Why are they ramping up all this talk?
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  Speaker 3: It is insane, I'll just start right there. It is
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  Speaker 3: insane because there is no reason whatsoever to have to
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  Speaker 3: even think about fighting a.
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  Speaker 1: War with Russia. There's no reason why they would want to.
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  Speaker 3: There was a lot of reason why they would want
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  Speaker 3: to go into the Donbas area, why they would want
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  Speaker 3: to go into part of Ukraine. They've been signaling that
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  Speaker 3: for fifteen years. Prior to this one. They had always
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  Speaker 3: signaled the opposite here, So there's no reason that's important,
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  Speaker 3: first of all. But secondly, what I think is going
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  Speaker 3: back to February twenty twenty two.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sorry to April.
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  Speaker 3: Twenty twenty two, when we had a chance to have
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  Speaker 3: a negotiated settlement and the UK and the Biden administration
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  Speaker 3: both worked against it and sabotaged. Zelinski was this close
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  Speaker 3: to agreeing to it. They convinced him to sabotage it,
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  Speaker 3: and then they said, no, let's defeat them. So twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty three they want to have this big offensive to
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  Speaker 3: drive Russia out. It totally failed, and ever since that time, Brian,
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  Speaker 3: they'd been trying to make up good for it and
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  Speaker 3: not be seen as being weak that we are, and
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  Speaker 3: so they keep doubling down on the failure. And now
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  Speaker 3: then this particular failure would be the worst of all
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  Speaker 3: because you could literally spawn a war between us.
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  Speaker 1: Which all too easily could go nuclear terrible.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly the way it sounded to me as
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  Speaker 2: I was looking for you for some guidance on that.
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  Speaker 2: So we both reached the same conclusion, and the article
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  Speaker 2: points out over and over again they're literally going to
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  Speaker 2: have to scramble to fortify their not only the soldiers
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  Speaker 2: on the ground, they have very small armies. They're going
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  Speaker 2: to maybe start talking about conscription and have in some countries,
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  Speaker 2: and they're desperately in need of military hardware and supplies
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  Speaker 2: if they want to wage a war. It seems logistically
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  Speaker 2: they couldn't wage one if they had the will.
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  Speaker 1: To do it.
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  Speaker 2: And on top of that, the Gallop survey from the
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  Speaker 2: European Union says that only thirty percent of the people
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  Speaker 2: will be even willing to take up arms to defend
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  Speaker 2: their own countries. That is a sorry state of affairs.
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  Speaker 3: Well, it is, yeah, And you know the reason why
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  Speaker 3: Germany's having this big problem here there.
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  Speaker 1: Maritch is talking about all this big coffee.
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  Speaker 3: Cocky stuff about wanting to be the power, the main
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  Speaker 3: military power on the continent, stuff using big, you know,
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  Speaker 3: illustrative language. A lot of people in the europe are going, yeah,
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  Speaker 3: you go ahead and do that.
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  Speaker 1: That's cool.
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  Speaker 3: But the problem is that he can't make good on
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  Speaker 3: it because they're having a problem economically to be able
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  Speaker 3: to create that, and then nobody.
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  Speaker 1: Wants to sign up for this.
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  Speaker 3: So, as you just pointed out, they're gonna have to
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  Speaker 3: have force conscription or they're just not gonna get there
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  Speaker 3: because the people don't see a need for this. They
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  Speaker 3: see the same thing you do. They think, what in
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  Speaker 3: the world are you talking about.
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  Speaker 1: I don't want to war with Russia. They don't want
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  Speaker 1: to war with us. No, this is stupid. Don't do it.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that ultimately that's gonna be And I
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  Speaker 3: hope this comes to the political downfall of all these
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  Speaker 3: governments in Europe that want war and they're putting for this.
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  Speaker 3: Eventually the people are gonna say, you're stupid, man, I
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  Speaker 3: don't want you govern uhing. So they're going to fall
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  Speaker 3: out of the next election. We just have to hope
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  Speaker 3: that happens before they actually get people sucked into a war.
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  Speaker 2: Well, you know, and you mentioned it, I mean the
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  Speaker 2: undercurrent of you know, by getting more soldiers, howe are
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  Speaker 2: they're going to accomplish satur of buying more war materials,
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  Speaker 2: spending more than a percentage of their economy that translates
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  Speaker 2: into cuts, cuts, and they're already over extended, bloated, impossible
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  Speaker 2: to sustain social welfare, safety in that So if European people,
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  Speaker 2: europe Union people are subjected to a choice either we
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  Speaker 2: build our military up and you cut social welfare, or
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  Speaker 2: will continue with these outrageous rates, which parenthetically are unsustainable anyway,
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  Speaker 2: and not build up our military, they probably go.
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  Speaker 1: With the ladder now.
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  Speaker 3: And that's I think why the Air Vice Marshall today
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  Speaker 3: in the UK was trying to say, listen, you have
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  Speaker 3: to be ready to sacrifice your sons and daughters because
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  Speaker 3: otherwise they're coming for us, because you have to create
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  Speaker 3: this fear that, oh my god, well maybe we do
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  Speaker 3: have to make these sacrifices.
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  Speaker 1: The I not remember, but a couple.
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  Speaker 3: Of days ago UK was also one of the UK
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  Speaker 3: leaders was saying, look, we have to be ready to
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  Speaker 3: make a lot of sacrifices, you know, in our economy,
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  Speaker 3: in our way of life, and maybe even our lives,
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  Speaker 3: because that's how big the risk is and it's real,
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  Speaker 3: et cetera. So it's scaring some people, but I think
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  Speaker 3: most people are going, I'm looking at I just don't
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  Speaker 3: see it.
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  Speaker 1: I think there's something wrong with you. And I hope
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  Speaker 1: that that holds sway.
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  Speaker 2: Well, maybe that answers the question that we're struggling with
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  Speaker 2: is why in the hell are they are they worried
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  Speaker 2: about Vladimir Cooton and raiding Europe. If you use this
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  Speaker 2: argument that we are under this existential threat from Russia,
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  Speaker 2: we are going to have to cut maybe that's the
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  Speaker 2: only Maybe that's the point. It will provide a mechanism
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  Speaker 2: to justify their cuts to this bloated, out of control
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  Speaker 2: social welfare system that so many people are on that
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  Speaker 2: can't be sustained, right, I mean, it will.
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  Speaker 3: But you know, one of the other things it's irony
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  Speaker 3: I think is falling is being consciously aware of a
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  Speaker 3: lot of these European populations.
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  Speaker 1: Is they're going, hang on, hang on.
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  Speaker 3: You just mocked Manuel Macron in particular, you just mocked
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  Speaker 3: the Russians because they're so pathetic that they've only taken
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  Speaker 3: one percent of the territory in the last two full
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  Speaker 3: years of fighting. And then at the same time you're
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  Speaker 3: telling me, oh my god, they're coming to London and
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  Speaker 3: we have.
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  Speaker 1: To be ready for that.
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  Speaker 3: That doesn't make any sense at all, And yet those
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  Speaker 3: contradictory messages are both being shouted by the European leaders.
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  Speaker 2: Well, at least you and I see through it. Daniel
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  Speaker 2: Davis'll tavi.
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  Speaker 1: This the day A lot of people do.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I know the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Find him
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: on wherever you get your podcasting and follow him throughout
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the week, and always tune in here on the fifty
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  Speaker 2: five KRSCEN Morning Shore every Tuesdays at eight thirty. I
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  Speaker 2: enjoy it, man, look forward to it every week, sir,
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  Speaker 2: and I'll look forward to you next week.
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  Speaker 1: Always my pleasure to see you next week, Brian.
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  Speaker 2: Take care of my friends. Eight thirty nine. Come up
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  Speaker 2: to eight forty or fifty five KRC detalk station. This
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  Speaker 2: is fifty five KARC and iHeartRadio.