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Mets/Giants MLB + WNBA Best Bets Friday 7/25/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached into pink. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I don't
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins archape? Is
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: that what it is? I don't even know it's It's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. But I don't even know
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you after the
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: worst day that I can possibly have, Back with you
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die at least oh
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. The slumps, the slump, discontinus,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: even know what I should do at this point, other
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: back with you for better off dead. Friday, July twenty fifth, yesterday.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Didn't give out any plays on the show yesterday. It
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: was a small card of I think my analysis actually
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: was pretty decent on the show yesterday except the WNBA.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: My best WNBA lean didn't get there. What can you do?
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just the way that it is sometimes,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: at least I didn't recommend to play on it. But
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: let's get right into today. Man, we have WNBA in
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: play again today. I'm not gonna give out any plays
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: here either. I'm only gonna give out one play on
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: the show today. Man, it's gonna be in baseball. It
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: will be a total. It will be an under because
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: you know me, that's usually what I do. And it'll
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: be at the end of the show. Although you can
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: see what game it is in the title here, and
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: it is the last game on the board too, so
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I just don't like the baseball card very much today
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: and don't like the market reads on some of the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: like ideas that I have in my head. Been anyway
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: for WNBA today, Phoenix at New York, which is actually
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: a pretty interesting game. Both of these teams having pretty
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: good seasons. Of the New York I mean the Liberty,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: they're still the better team. Man. Liberty are coming off
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: back to back wins over the Fever, though I believe
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: one before the All Star Break, and then they came
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: out of the All Star breaking just one again. Although
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: both games Indiana did not have Caitlyn Clark where now
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: it now seems like Caitlyn Clark. They don't even know
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: when she's even coming back, which is ridiculous. But the
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Liberty around a nice four game win streak here, coming
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: in with momentum, and they're just staying at home. It
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like a horrendous spot for them really. Phoenix
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: are coming in off of playing I guess at home
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta and losing pretty badly, so they are starting
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: a road trip should be a focused spot for them too,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: so to me it should be a competitive matchup. I
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: think both teams have a reason to show up here.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Liberty are up from six to seven. As far as
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the number is concerned. I might lean in the other direction, though,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: because they still are coming off beating Indiana, which is
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: always kind of a big win, even if Caitlin Clark
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: isn't there, and Phoenix had a pretty embarrassing result last
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: time out, even though Atlanta is also a pretty good team,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: so I expect Phoenix to maybe make some adjustments here,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: come into this game play a little bit better. Although
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I have been saying for a while I don't think
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is quite as good as the record looks. Although
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I did kind of change my mind on that and say, well,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: they're better than I thought they were, but maybe they're
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: still not as good as the record looks. Vegas is
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: on a back to back. They played at Indiana last night.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I thought Vegas was in a good spot, like a
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: big revenge spot, because they had gotten small the last
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: time they were at Indiana. Both of those games also
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: without Caitlin Clark, and Vegas had a bad game. So
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: in a way, like you think maybe they should bounce
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: back here, but they're also this is a tough spot, man.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: They have to travel up to Minnesota. They have no
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: rest and they have to play Minnesota, who is the
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: best team in the league. In Minnesota. They're just on
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: a roll right now. I mean, they've won three games
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: in a row. They're not traveling, they're staying at home. Yeah,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a very satisfying win. But I don't
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: really think they're gonna overlook the Vegas Aces, even though
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: the Aces haven't exactly been playing up to their potential.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is down from eleven to ten. Maybe could argue
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: that the numbers a little bit too high. I mean,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I still think Vegas is a little bit better than
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: their like five hundred record makes them look. But there
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: isn't really any way i'd want to grab Vegas here
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: on the back to back, and then Dallas is at
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Golden State. Golden State, they're coming off. I don't think
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: they play it actually since an All Star break? Is
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: that right? I think maybe? Yeah, Golden States had a
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: long time off because I haven't seen them on the
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: schedule for a while, so they went into the All
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Star break on a bad note. They were playing pretty
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: good basketball for a while, but they lost the last
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: three games. They lost five out of six, So in
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: a way, maybe that All Star break came at the
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: right time, and they can make some adjustments and fix
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: some things. But you could argue that they've had too
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: much time off. They are playing Dallas, who did just
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: get a win ale that they just beat Seattle, and
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: now they're coming in playing a second straight road game,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: whereas Golden State. Golden State's coming off actually losing to
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: that same Seattle team. So I think maybe the sentiment
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: here is gonna be, well, we should grab the points
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: with Dallas then, right, Like, Golden State's losing a ton
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: of games recently, and if Seattle just beat Golden State
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: and Dallas beat Seattle, well then it seems obvious that
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Dallas should be able to beat Golden State, right, So
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: har we're getting points with Dallas here. Well, I mean,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I think that was kind of an outlier there. I
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: met Dallas just slaughtering Seattle on the road. I mean,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: that was a big upset win. That was. It's pretty unpredictable,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have happened. So I would lean to Golden
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: State in this game. Again, I think the All Star
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: break came at the right time for them. The money's
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: coming against them. They're down from five and a half
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: to four and a half. I actually think that might
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: be the best lean in the WNBA today though, would
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: be to lay the points of Golden State. It's just
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: a matter of are they gonna be like is Rust
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: gonna settle in because they haven't played for so long,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: and it's Dallas gonna have a little bit more momentum
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: just because they have played recently. We're really going at
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: some injury issues here. I guess the Dallas is the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: team that's had a lot of injuries to deal with
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: throughout the season. Thornton looks like she's out for Golden State,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: but other than that, they're intact. Again, probably a slight
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: lean to Golden State there, Andrew, what's up man? Yeah,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Hulk Hogan probably the the most difficult to take out
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: of all the recent deaths, him and Chuck MANGIONI actually
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: as a jazz music fan. All right, let's get into
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: baseball here. We do have one late after noon game
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Miami at Milwaukee. Because we had so few baseball games yesterday,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: we have a lot of teams coming into today with rest,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: which I think is another reason why looking towards unders
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: might make some sense in some of these games today.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Because when you have teams that are rested, the offenses
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: can cool off a little bit with that day off
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: and the bullpens get rested. So it's usually a little
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: bit of a better spot for unders. Miami is at Milwaukee, though,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: as I said, Milwaukee, at some point, you got to
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: think this Milwaukee team is gonna cool off a little bit. Man,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: and they are returning home from a road trip. We
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: have some return home spots, saying, you know, I talk
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: about this a lot. When a team returns home from
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: a road trip, they have to get back to family life.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It can be a distraction, especially with Milwaukee here. They've
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: been playing such good baseball, sweeping the Dodgers again. Then
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: they won a series against Seattle and really pretty much
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: took it to Seattle. But now there returning home from
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: a very satisfying road trip from the Pacific coast with travel,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: it looks like a pretty bad spot to me. From
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: alau Man, I don't know that they're really gonna have
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: total focus on this bad Miami team. However, I don't
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: think we could really jump on Miami with this pitching matchup. Man,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I just don't see a way to do it. And
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has the better bullpen too. Their bullpens and playing
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: better recently. They got some rest in there. Now Miami
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: has cal Quantrell on the hill, and if it was
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: one of Miami's other pitchers, they have some decent starting pitchers.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Quadrille is probably the worst pitcher, so if it was
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: any one of the other pitchers, I might actually be
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: looking to jump on Miami here, but there's no way
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: we could do this. Quadrille five point two four ERA,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: one point three to seven whip on the season. He's
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: been worse on the road six point two on the road.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: None of that is good. He did have a good
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: start last time out against Kansas City six inning shutout,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: but remember Kansas City one of the worst offenses in
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: all of baseball. Quadrille actually did just face Milwaukee back
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: on July fifth, and he did not do well in
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: that game. He didn't even make it through four innings,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: gave up a couple of runs, put a lot of
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: guys on base, six hits, one walk, did have six strikeouts,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: so at least his strikeout walk ratio is pretty good
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: this month with a fourteen to two strike at walk ratio.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: But I still don't think we can trust him. Even
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: though Milwaukee their offense is actually worse at home than
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: it is on the road, but they rake against Quantrell
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: for the most part of fifty career at bats. They
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: have a three forty average eight forty nine ops against Quantrill.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So again, I just don't think it's a spot where
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: you'd really want to jump on the Quandrill side there,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: And he's going up against Freddy Peralta, who's been Milwaukee's
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: ace for a while now, the Miszierowski might be assuming
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: that role. The wood Druff is actually pitching really well
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: as well, so Milwaukee all of a sudden has a
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: stacked rotation. Freddy Peralta is still really good as well,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: two point eight five ERA, one point eight whip, really
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: good at home, one point five to three home. Ra
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: had a little bit of a rough start last time out,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: but it was against the Dodgers, was on the road.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: It was the second time he faced the Dodgers in
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: a span of three starts, so I think in a way,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers were just recently familiar with him, and the
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are good offense anyway, especially at home, So I'm
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: gonna give Peralta a pass on that one where you
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: give up four runs, his team still won the game.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: He's still got the win. And we have a ridiculous
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: streak going right now where not only is Milwaukee won
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: seven Paralta starts in a row, but he has picked
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: up the win at all seven of those as well.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Crazy streak to be on, man, He's allowed three or
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: few run runs and all of the other ones except
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: that Dodgers game the last time out. So Paralta does
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: not look like he's got you on a fade right
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: now either, man. And this month he has a twenty
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: four to six strikeout walk ratio, so he's pitching well
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: recently as well, with a two point six to sixty
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: ra this month as well. Up against U did I
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: look at the wrong team there and I just did
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a quanta? Let me go back to that in a minute.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: But up against Miami Paralta, Miami only has four hitters
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: who've even ever seen Peralta before, so Paralta has an
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity edge against some of these Miami hitters as well,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: and the guys that have seen them have no extra
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: base hits off him to a way to average five
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: h five ops. So it's looking like I don't think
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: you want to fade this pitching matchup here, man between
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Quadrille and Peralta, I would say, there's no way that
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: you could do that. Yes, I believe I gave out
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: the right numbers there for a Quandra against Milwaukee, but
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: of course Minnesota, I mean excuse in Minnesota. Milwaukee's gonna
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: be a huge favorite here though probably rightfully sold, and
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the money is actually coming in against them a little bit.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus two to fifteen to minus to aweight,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of tickets, eighty five percent of the cash
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: coming in on them, So very public Milwaukee team. Some
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: of the money's coming in against them. I mean. The
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: short of it is, the situational aspects of this game
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: favor Miami, the scheduling situation, but Milwaukee has a huge
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge, and they have a bullpen edge, and
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: they have an offensive edge. So uh, they do have
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: basically all the edges across the board that you look
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: for in the matchup. So that's a pass for me.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Arizona at Pittsburgh. As we get into the evening slate here,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is staying at home, but they might be feeling
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: pretty high on themselves because after they got swept by
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, they turned around and swept Detroit, who
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: has been one of the worst teams since the All
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Star Break. Detroit not hitting at all, not playing well.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Pretty embarrassing to get swept by Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh, on
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the other hand, they might be feeling pretty high on
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: themselves here, man, So it looks like kind of a
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Pittsburgh, whereas Arizona is starting a road
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: trip and they're coming off getting swept at home by Houston.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Although that is a big series, it's a tough series
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: to come off of against Houston. Normally, I would say
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: when you start a road trip, you're coming off losses
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: like that, it's good to just get out on the
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: road focus on baseball. That's usually the way that I
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: would look at something like this. But I don't know
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: what the mindset of Arizona is gonna be like, because,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: as you can see here, the big trade news yesterday
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: was Arizona they're selling at the trade deadline, man, So
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: they're basically they traded Josh Naylor to Seattle. I don't
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: know what they got for him. I assume they got
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: like prospects for him. Or something like that. So Seattle
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: is basically saying, we're gonna add a hitter right now,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: We're going for it this year. Arizona is saying, we
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: don't think we can win this year, so we're gonna just,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: you know, try to plan for the future and sell
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: a guy off here who's one of our better hitters.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So what mindset does that like put a team in
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: really when your management is saying we're not gonna win
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: this year, so we're gonna sell off now. So I
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: worry about that. As far as Arizona, I mean, yes,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: you're still playing baseball, you still want to win, you
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: still have pride like that, players are not gonna go
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: out and just intentionally lose. But right after that happens,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: what mindset is Arizona gonna be? And I think that's
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit questionable, man. So I would not really
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: want to play in Arizona here either. Arizona has a
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: terrible bullpen. Pittsburgh's bullpen has actually been a little bit better,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: so Pittsburgh actually has the better bullpen here. Even without Naylor,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Arizona does still have the better offense, though the better lineup.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson is pitching for Arizona. He is the more
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: proven of the two pitchers. At least. He's having a
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: good season man, even though I keep saying I don't
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna keep this up. I think he's gonna
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: suffer some pitching ed at some point. But good season
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: for Nelson. Three point five two ERA, one point six whip.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: He has been way worse on the road though, five
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: point seven to ninety R on the road. On the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: road is ERA almost four runs higher on the road,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: and he's allowed seven of the nine home runs he's
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: allowed on the road in almost twenty fewer innings. He
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: has been way, way worse on the road, and by
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the way, Pittsburgh is way better at home than they
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: are on the road. Nelson, he's been pitching well recently
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: though I mean three point one to eighty RA this month.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Does have a ten to five strike up walk ratio,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: though hasn't been putting up huge strikeout numbers, and most
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: of those walks came in one start against Anaheim, which
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: was his only bad start this month. Arizona was playing
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: well behind him. They've won six of his last seven starts,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and he's up against a pretty weak Pittsburgh offenses. I
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: already pointed out, and Levy does well against them. Yeah,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: in thirty eight at bats, he's pretty much dominated them
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: in seven to one strike at walk ratio one fifty
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: eight batting average allowed to for sixty three ohps allowed.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Nelson probably not really a guy who want to fade
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: here in that matchup going up against Pittsburgh, so I
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: think he should be fine here. He's going up against
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the young pitcher Mike Burrows, who I believe is in
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: his rookie season for Pittsburgh. He's been definitely shaky. He's
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: been off and on four point seventy RA one point
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: four to one whip. Don't know if he's totally trustworthy.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit better at home, or actually
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: a bit better at home four point eighty R at home.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Is coming up a pretty good start last time out
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: against the White Sox, although it is a bad White
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Sox lineup. Only gave up two runs in five innings
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: and then the bullpen actually kind of totally imploded after that.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: But he had a really bad start to start before
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: that against Minnesota. Although the start before that he was
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: actually good against Seattle, shutting them out for five innings.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: He did walk four guys, so his walk numbers have
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: been really bad this month. Overall, thirteen to nine strike
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. It's a good strikeout rate, but the
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: walk rate is way too high, and his six point
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: three five ERA doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence either.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Nor does the fact that Pittsburgh has lost six of
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: his last seven outings. That's not good either. Although Burrows
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: is in a position where I believe he has never
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: been seen before by whoever that were they facing d Backs? Right? Yeah,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: oh no, I'm wrong. The d Backs did see him,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: I think. Yeah, I don't remember if that was a
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: game where Burrows came out of the bullpen. It might
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: have been because only four of their hitters have seen
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: him before, and Carol did hit a home run off him.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: They were two for seven off and one walk, one strikeout,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: so two eighty six average one thousand, two thirty two
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: o ps. So Burrows is at least somewhat unfamiliar to
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Arizona and the market read is actually tough in this game.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Looking at the side here, I know I didn't look
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: at like any of the totals yesterday, but I will
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: look at some more totals today. But just pointing out, like,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: what kind of the more interesting market reads are here.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: As far as the total is concerned, it is up
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: from eight and a half to nine, but we see
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the under sixty three percent of
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: tickets and ninety percent of cash on the under, kind
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: of expecting that maybe maybe there is kind of an
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: angle there where both starting pitchers are a little bit
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. Don't know if you want
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: to trust Arizona's bullpend, but at the very least they
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: are rested because neither of these teams played yesterday, So
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I see some arguments for the under here. The money
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: line is dropped on Arizona as a road favorite, down
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: for one twenty five to minus one oh nine, But
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: it does look like the cash is on the Arizona side,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: still fifty eight percent of tickets eight and nine percent
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Arizona, and like I said, it
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: looks like situationally, the spot might be decent for Arizona
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: as far as the schedule, but again, because they're selling
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: off players, I don't really know if their mental state
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: is gonna be good enough. Although I would put Ryan
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Nelson above Mike Burrows right now as far as the
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers are concerned, and so possibly in Arizona first
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: five inning look might make some sense in that game
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: as well, but the cash percentage is incomplete opposition to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the money line move in that game. Colorado at Baltimore.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Baltimore played yesterday and the returning home from a road trip,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: so it looks like kind of a double bamy of
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Baltimore, although their travel wasn't really that.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: They didn't really travel that far there. They went to
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and then Cleveland didn't have a good road trip,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: losing both series, but they played yesterday. Man, so Baltimore
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: unrested is they're one of the only teams, just Baltimore
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland. By the way, they're the only two teams
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: playing today that played yesterday and are facing a team
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: that didn't play yesterday, because all the rest of the
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: teams that played yesterday their series started and so they're
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: all continuing those series. Baltimore finished up that series the
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: returning Home, and as I always point out, when you
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: return home from a road trip, you have to get
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: back to family life. It's a bit of a distracted spot,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and I don't know if Colorado's really going to be
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: a team that draw as much of your attention as
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: we get into kind of the dog days of the
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: baseball season here, Baltimore probably pretty much is aware that
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: they're out of the running here, and so is Colorado.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what we're going to get in
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: this game, man. Colorado is at least starting a road
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: trip with rest, and they actually have momentum as they've
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: actually won two games in a row and four of
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: their last six games and won two series in a row,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: so yay for Colorado. And they actually pulled off a
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: shutout the last time out, which I think was the
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: first time they did that on the season against Saint Louis.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: So Colorado is in the better scheduling spot here. Man.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Look at the starting pitching matchup. I don't know, man, Baltimore, again,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: they're unrested. Other bullpen isn't that good, although they didn't
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their bullpen, yes, so Colorado of
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: course doesn't have a good bullpen either. Kyle Freeland is
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: pitching for Colorado. He is not one of the worst
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: pitchers at least five point one to ninety RA one
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: point five to three whip four point five to three
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: e R in the road, so he's been respectable on
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the road this month. He has a pretty respectable three
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: point five to seven e RRA and three starts allowing
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: no more than three in runs than any of them,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: pitching at least five and two thirds innings in all
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: three Colorado one to two out of the three starts.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: But his walk rate has been not great. Eleven to
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: seven strike up walk rat sho doesn't look that great
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: here is strikeout rate not really that high. Uh, Freeland
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a mixed bag with him, man,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if he's totally trustworthy. Is going
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: up against Baltimore. Baltimore does not have great numbers against
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: him offensively and thirty five at bats two fifty seven average,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: six H two ops. So Freeland may very well pitch
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: okay in this game. Problem is, I'm actually worried about
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: fading Dan Creamer, Man de Creamer. He's kind of proven
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: me wrong. Man, He's actually pitching pretty well recently. Four
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: point oh six e R in the season, one point
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: two to five WHIP at home. He's been quite good,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: with a two e R at home significantly better and
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: his road numbers, although his home numbers are much less
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: of a sample size. But Baltimore's actually won three of
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: his last four starts, and the one that they lost
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: last time out, he only allowed one run in that game,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: so that wasn't even his fault. He has a two
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: point nine to five year ra this month. The last
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: start the prior month, or the last three starts in
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the prior month, he didn't give up more than one
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: earned run in any of them. So he's given up
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: one or fewer earned runs of five of his last
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: six outings and as a sixteen to five strike out
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: walk race ship this month. So he's pitching pretty well
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: right now and not really a guy that I want
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to fade, especially in home. And he's facically this really
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: bad Colorado lineup. Colorado, I mean they've done not horribly
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: against them, mediocre numbers in twenty two at bats, a
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: two seventy three average, seven to twenty seven ops. So
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: I would still slightly lean to Colorado in this game,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: just I think the scheduling spot kind of clinches it.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: As far as Colorado, where are the interleague games? What
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: am I doing here? Yeah? So Baltimore, they're a huge favor.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus two twenty to minus one nineinety five,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the tickets, ninety eight percent of
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. They're obviously Baltimore will be public.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, fading Colorado is always a public sentiment pretty much.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I think you could maybe jump on like a Colorado
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: run line here if you really wanted to. And I
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: think maybe going under in the first five innings might
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: be worth a look as well, because these starting pitchers
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: aren't as bad as people think they are, and these
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: offenses may struggle against these two pitchers, to be honest,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: So it's toldalest flip from nine juice to the under
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: to being juiced to the over, but very very public
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: over ninety two percent on the over of the tickets
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and ninety one percent of the cash on the under,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: or excuse me on the over as well. Sorry, so
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: over just very public and getting the vast majority of
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the money too. So maybe an under first five inning
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: is worth a look there. I mean, I wouldn't really
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: want to deal with the bullpens Philadelphia at the Yankees.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: My first instinct was to think that this game is
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: probably going to be an over type of game. Here
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: even though both bullpens are rested. But Philadelphia and the
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: Yankees actually have not had great bullpens this year. Man,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: So even though they're rested, I think you could be
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: looking at some runs in this game, especially because this
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: is at the Bronx. You got two good offenses. I mean,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: these teams could push this thing over. And the oddsmakers
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: have put a really high total up on this game.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: And the pitching matchup to me doesn't look great. It
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like a pitching duel to me. Taiwan Walker
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Phillies. But oh man, he has
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: a three point seven to five ERA. That's good, right,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I mean sure, but one point three to eight whip
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: not good. He's putting too many guys on base. Yes,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: he's been better on the road, two point one to
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: nine road, yeah, ray, And he's actually allowed only one
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: of the nine home runs he's allowed this year have
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: come on the road. But he doesn't go deep into
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: games anymore, man, Walker, He's more of like an opener
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: type of guy. Now, maybe they're ramping up a little
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: bit because last couple outings he actually went a little
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: bit deeper and went four innings. But I think at
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: most he's probably gonna go five innings in this game,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: which would be you know, a starters workload if he
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: does do that. But I don't know if we can
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: really trust Walker here, man, and he's facing a really
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: strong Yankee lineup, so I think he might be out
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: of there, you know, a few winnings into this game,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees do hit him hard. In eighty eight
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: of bats, he's given up seven home runs. Player prop
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: potentially here Jazz Chisholm is seven for fifteen off with
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: three doubles, Aaron Judge four for thirteen with four dangers,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: and Goldschmidt five for thirteen with three doubles and a
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: home run. Those three guys do a ton of damage.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Jim Carlos Stanton, who did come back at some point
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: for the Yankees not too long ago, it is four
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: for twelve with a home run. So these guys really
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: really do damage against Walker three point fifty two average
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: allowed to the Yankees one thousand, ninety five ops. So
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I think Walker could get lit up while he's in there. Man,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: He's up against Will Warren. Walker versus Warren Warren not
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: having a great season either for the Yankees. Four point
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: nine to one ERA one point four to four WHIP.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: He's been significantly better at home though, with a three
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: home theras. So maybe I don't want to really fade
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Warren here, but excuse me, but his recent performances have
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: been awful, dude. He's allowed multiple walks and six straight starts,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: has a fourteen to twelve strike a walk ratio this
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: month with a seven point two to three ERA, and
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: he's coming off giving up five earned runs and three
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings with three walks, five hits and
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: two of them runs all allowed to Atlanta, who really
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: doesn't have that strong of an offense either, so will Warren.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: He's absolutely not in good form right now, man, So
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really trust Warren, even though his numbers against
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia are actually pretty good. But it's a small nineteen
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: at bad sample size, so maybe there's not a whole
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: lot to take away from that, and maybe some of
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: that was well Philadelphia just wasn't familiar with him. They
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: just hadn't seen him yet. Walker does have six or
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: excusing Warren have six strikeouts off him, which is pretty good,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: or six strikeouts against them, I should say one fifty
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: eight average allot four to forty nine. Oh bs. Warren
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: does pitch well against them, but he's pitching so poorly
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: recently that I'm thinking the over is the way that
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: you look at this game. The total is up from
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: nine and a half to ten now, and the juice
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: now on the over ten. I know it's a very
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: high total, but you're you're still getting the like you're
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: not on the wrong side of the number nine. I
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: mean you're on the wrong side of the number nine,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: but you always were basically right, like you're never getting
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: the best of the number nine. So number nine, number nine,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: revolution number nine. Man, we'll go yoko ono on this,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: but I think the over is probably the right way
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: to look at this game. Total is high for a reason.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Eighty seven percent of tickets though, and only eighty six
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. But I still
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: think the over is the right way to look here.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Yankees got some of the money money line movement up
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: for minus one forty five to minus one fifty two.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: But even though they're playing Philadelphia, I think you're all
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: always getting a little bit taxed to play the Yankees,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: especially in the Bronx, And it looks like the cash
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: percentage is actually coming in against them, fifty six percent
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Yankees, fifty nine percent of the cash
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: coming in on Philly. I don't think that I would
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: like the Philly side here though, man, I mean, out
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: of those two starting pitchers, I mean, I think you
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: have to give Warren the advantage there, So I think
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: the Yankees do have the advantage there. Both teams coming
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: up pretty big series as well. By the way, Philadelphia
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip after playing the Red Sox of Philadelphia,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: They're still going to be focused on. I mean, you're
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip playing against the Yankees, and a
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: lot of the commentators are going to talk about this
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: being like a World Series preview type of matchup, so
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: both teams will be focused here. Yankees are returning home
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: from a road trip as well, by the way, from
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Atlanta and then Toronto, where Toronto has really given them
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: problems in the alas so far. So the Yankees kind
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: of in a bad spot as well, coming up those
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: big series there and in the return home spot, which
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: might be part of the reason why Philadelphia might be
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: getting some of the cash there. But again, I actually
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: think the over is the preferred way to look at
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: that game. My Boston Red Sox are in a huge
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: series here as well against the LA Dodgers. The Red Sox,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is crazy, dude, Red Sox hot going
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: into the All Star Break. The All Star break kills
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: their momentum and then they have to play Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, thanks schedule makers given the Red Sox like
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: a really tough go of it here. Red Sox have
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: the bullpen edge. The Dodgers' bullpen has really been struggling here, man,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: so not a good bullpen spot for the Dodgers really,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think any spot is really good
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: for the Dodgers' bullpen at this point Situationally, it's not
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: the greatest spot for the Red Sox really, as they
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: are returning home as I mentioned from Chicago and Philadelphia.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: But are you really gonna be in a distracted return
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: home spot when it's the Dodgers coming to town. Everybody's
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: talking about this, everybody's talking about how Otani is gonna
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: pitch on Sunday, which makes me tempted to actually try
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: to get tickets and go to that game, but they're
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be expensive. Usually you can go to Red
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Sox games fairly inexpensively, but probably not in that one
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the whole series. And look at this shit, like, look
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: at all these other prices for all these other games,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: even Yankees Phillies. Seventy bucks is the lowest total lowest
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: ticket price, lowest ticket price in this Red Sox matchup,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: even for this pitching matchup where people don't even know
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: who these pitchers are, one hundred and thirty nine bucks.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: Are you fucking kidding me? I mean, that's just insane,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Like you're probably gonna be looking at three hundred bucks
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: then to see Otani pitch on a Sunday, though of
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: course you'll see how Tani hit, So that's part of
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: the reason why these tickets are selling like this. People
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: want to go see Otani bat. You don't get to
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: see him in Boston very often. But anyway, the Red
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Sox are turning over from a road trip. They shouldn't
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: be distracted because of how weighty this series is. Dodgers
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: of flying cross country, but they are starting a road trip. Yes,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: they'll have to get adjusted to the time zone though,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: so maybe it's not the greatest road trip starting a spot,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: but when you start a road trip. Usually you are
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: gonna be focused. I mean it's it's the Red Sox.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I mean they have a big name, they have a
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: pretty good record this year, So the Dodgers are still
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be focused as well. And we got two pretty
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: interesting young pitchers going here. Man Emmitt Shean, I mean,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: he's a guy that I think he's gonna be good
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: at some point, even though he had Tommy John surgery
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: already really early in his career. But guys can bounce
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: back from that more easily earlier in the earlier in
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: their careers. He's not pitching that well yet this season,
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: but it's been a very limited amount of outings for
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: him so far. Four point four to one ERA, one
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: point three to five WHIP. I think he is better
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: than those numbers suggest though. He's been good on the
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: road so far two point oh eighty RA, but it's
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: only in four and a third inning, so only one
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: start on the road so far, and it was at
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. So we have to dial it back maybe
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit on Shean because that was a pitcher
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: friendly park, not a very good San Francisco offense, and
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: he still walked three guys in that outing, so he
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: has walked five guys over the last three outings, which
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: isn't that terrific, And he's only gone five innings in
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: one start all year, so he's gone fewer than five
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: innings in the others. It seems like the Dodgers are
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: kind of wanting to limit his pitch count a little bit.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox only Bregman has ever faced him before.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: He's zero for one Offen, but did walk twice against him.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: So other than that, Shean is unfamiliar to the Red
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Sox and she does have some He does have pretty
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: good stuff, so I wouldn't necessarily I still wouldn't really
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: want to fade she in here. But the Dodgers' bullpen
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: is not great and they're probably gonna get into this game,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: maybe earlier than the Red Sox bullpen. His Red Sox
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: are actually up to eighth in bullpen whip at least
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: that's not bad, and the Bullpenny Ray has gotten way
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: better too, So the Red Sox bullpen has really gotten
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: better as the seasons progress progress. The Dodgers bullpen nowhere
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: close to that. They're really bad in Bullpenny Ray and
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: twenty third and bullpen whips, so yeah, Red Sox big
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: time bullpen edge there, Dodgers do have the offensive edge,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: though Red Sox have Brian Bao on the mound. I
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: might becoming a I might be becoming a Brian Bao
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: believer man the BBB because he is actually pitching well recently.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Is Era has been good most of the season. But
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: the thing that was always worrisome about Bao is that
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: he was putting unbelievable amount of an unbelievable amount of
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: guys on base, and now it seems like he's not
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: doing that anymore. He's got a three point two to
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: three ERA one point two seven whip, which is still
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: kind of high, but it's gone way down from where
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: it was. He's been pretty good both home and away.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter as far as cra He's not
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: allowed more than three ear runs in any start going
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: all the way back to May eighteenth, and that was
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: the only start all season where he allowed more than
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: three earned runs. But yes, as I said, he was
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: walking a ton of guys early in the season, but
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: that's completely turned around. Is this month he hasn't walked
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: more than one guy in any outing. The Red Sox
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: have won three of his four out and the one
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: that they lost, the Red Sox didn't score any runs
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: against the Cobs. He has a twenty two to three
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio this month, has gone at least
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: five innings in all the starts, at least six in
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the last three, including a complete game against the Rockies
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: here at Fenway. Three of those four starts have been
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: at Fenway, and he's got a two point seven to
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: three ERA this month, so he is definitely on fire
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: right now. Against the Dodgers, he has decent numbers as
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: well in thirty two career at bats eleven to one
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: strike out walk raceio, two to fifty batting average, five
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: to eighty five OPS. So the way that I'm looking
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: at this game is actually first five innings under is
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: the way that I would look at this game. I
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want to deal with the bullpens man. I just
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: don't really want to deal with the Dodgers bullpen Shean.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: We don't really know how deep he's gonna go, but
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: if you just focus on the starting pitchers, you know
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: he's probably gonna get you at least three to four
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: innings probably from Sheen. And again, he is a young
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: pitcher that has good stuff stuffed the ken fool guys
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: at the major league level. He was pitching well in
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the minors this year. Seventy four percent of the tickets
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: around the over seventy two percent of the cash on
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: the under. So a big time market read on the
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: under there, So I agree with it, but I wouldn't
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: want to factor in the Dodgers' bullpen. So first five
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: inning under is the lean in that game. The money
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: looks like it is kind of coming in on the
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Red Sox too. Is the Dodgers are a road favorite,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: and it really seems like you're kind of paying attacks
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: to try to play the Dodgers here, man Like, should
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: they really be a road favorite with a really young,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: unproven picture on the mound? Probably not, even though it
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: is kind of a bad spot for the Red Sox
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: and that they're returning home from a road trip. But
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are down for minus one fifteen to minus one
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: thirteen on the money line, sixty five percent of tickets,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the cash on the Red Sox.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: So the money is coming in on the Red Sox. Cubert,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Yeah? Showed a lot of people do
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: call me that don't necessarily feel that it's an inaccurate
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: nickname though, Total almost a similar nickname to that. Though.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Let's try to get through this memory chugging along. We're
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: going slow here, Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. Cincinnati's returning home
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. They went to the Mets in
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Washington and now they're returning home, so again, could be
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a distracted spot for Cincinnati returning
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: home from the road trip. Got to get back to
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: family life. Tampa Bay starting a road trip after being
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: pretty embarrassed by the White Sox in their last series. Man,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: they gave up a lot of runs to the White Sox,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: just lost two out of three, gave up nineteen runs
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: in the two games that they lost in that series.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Pretty bad right now, Tampa Bay has kind of become
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: cold right now. But this might be a get right
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: spot for Tampa Bay because they get to just forget
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: about that, get out of that stupid trip. Excuously spring
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: training stadium they played, I think I called it a
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: triple A stadium at one point. Spring training stadium that
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: they play in. Just go out on the road could
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: be a better spot for Tampa Bay here, Man and
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati and this is a hitter friendly park, just like Tampa's.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: This Yankee spring training stadium that Tampa plays in also is.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa has Zach Lttel on the mound, and first of all,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I do think Tampa does have the better bullpen of
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: the two, although they've dropped off a little bit. They're
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: eleventh in bullpen whip at least Cincinnati fifteenth, so not
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: a huge advantage, but still a little bit of a
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge for Tampa. Here both bullpen's arrested. Of course,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: as with Philly, New York, LA, Boston, all these bullpen's arrested.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Zach Lttel is pitching for the Rays. He's having a
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: good season three point five to three e RA one
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: point zero nine whip. He's been pretty good both home
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: in away. His numbers are pretty similar ERA wise. He's
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: loved three or fewer earned runs in six straight starts
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: and in every start except one going all the way
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: back to basically early April, so he is definitely pitching consistently.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Tampa's won three of his last four starts. He has
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: a three point oh six ERA and three starts this
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: month going at least five to two thirds in each
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: of them. Twelve to four strike out walker Issuo. So
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: he is pitching pretty well right now, pitching consistently going
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: up against the Cincinnati Reds. He has not done as
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: well against the Reds in thirty at bats. They actually
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: do a three hundred batting average, but only a six
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: twenty three OPS, which is in his high because they
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: actually have zero extra base hits and only one walk
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: off him. Lattel doesn't tend to walk a lot of guys.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: He does give up some hard contact, though how will
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: that play in this great American ballpark? I don't exactly know,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. I mean, his numbers aren't that bad
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: against Cincinnati though Nick Martinez is pitching for the Reds.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: He's had a little bit of a resurgence this year.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Those numbers aren't that good. To four point seven to
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: three ERA is not really that good. One point two
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: to whip isn't that bad. Though he's been very similar
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: home in a way, it doesn't really matter. He's been
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: good last couple of starts along two runs each, only
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: going five and five and a third innings in each
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: of them, though, but did one of those starts was
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: against the Mets that was fairly impressive. Did have a
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: an eight to three strike a walk right stio of
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: those two outings. Had one really bad start this month.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: He got absolutely wrecked by the Marlins, which makes absolutely
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: no sense. It was at Grant American Ballpark, but he
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: didn't even allow any home runs in that one. So
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: that was a bad start. But other than that, the
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Reds have actually won all five of his other six
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: most recent starts, or actually one of them. I think
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: he came out of the bullpen maybe again. Yeah, he
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: came out of the bullpen against the Yankees, but they
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: did win that one. But they won four of his
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: last five starts at the very least, so Martinez, he
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: was in the bullpen. Now he's back to starting full
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: time again. Very strange what they're doing with him, but whatever.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Up against Tampa only twelve at bats, so not a
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: big sample size. Theas does have a home run off him.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: He's a lot of two fifty average and seven to
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: fifty ops to them, So that ops like right at
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: the Mendoza line where you say, well, he's not really
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: good or bad against them. Very difficult to figure out
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: what you want to do in this game. But I
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: think that the clincher is probably just the situational spot,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, is better for Tampa. So that's the
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: way that I would lean. But the money line flipped
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: from Cincinnati plus one hundred to minus one oh seven,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of tickets eighty six percent of cash
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: coming in on Cincinnati right now. So the market Reid
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: looks to disagree with me on that, But at the
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: very least, if you do like Tampa are at least
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: fading the public, and that is the way that I
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: would lean there. Toronto at Detroit, these two teams started
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: their series yesterday and Toronto smashed Detroit yesterday. Man Reesolsen
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: was nowhere near as good as I thought he would
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: be yesterday. Detroit continuing this slide, man, this descent into madness.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Four losses in a row and they've lost ten of
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: their last eleven games, I believe now just getting absolutely destroyed.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of bullpen usage from me either team
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: in the game yesterday, but Toronto, I would say, does
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: have the bullpen edge right now over Detroit, which I
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: think probably plays out. Yeah, Toronto is actually fourth now
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: in bullpen whip and Detroit is down at fourteenth. Toronto
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: has actually been hitting better as well. There's sixth in
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: all overall team ops and Detroit is actually behind them
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: now seventh. So the offenses are similar, but Toronto actually
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of a better offense now too.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: Detroit is still good at home this season, though, so
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: at some point, I mean, even though I think both
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: of these teams are not quite as good as their
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: records indicate that they are, I think Detroit is probably
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: still the better team out of these two. But with
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: his starting pitching matchup and Toronto already having a bullpen
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: edge and debatably hitting edge as well, I think Toronto
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: does have the starting pitching edge as well here, with
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Barrios pitching three point eight to seven ERA one point
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: two six WHIP. He's been better on the road this
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: year with a three point three to four road RA.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: He's pitching mediocre kind of this month. I mean, he
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: had one really bad start against the Yankees, which maybe
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: given a pass for that, but well, I don't know, man,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: And maybe you give a pass for pitching at the
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: A's Triple A stadium that they have there too, because
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: that's a pretty hitter from the park. Two did give
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: up four runs again last time out against San Francisco.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe I guess you could argue that Barrios
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: just isn't in great form right now, as he did
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: allow four or more earned runs and those three starts
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: three out of the four of them this month, and
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: his one really good start was against the White Sox.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: But he's getting a lot of run support, and uh,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Toronto has won eight of his last ten starts, nine
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: of his last eleven starts actually, so this month his numbers,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's getting a lot of run support, but
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: I think he's better than what he's what he's done
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: this month though, thirteen to five strike at walk ratio
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: not great, seven point one win era obviously really bad,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: but a lot of it kind of skewed by those
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: couple of weird, almost kind of outlier starts. He does
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: do well against Detroit in ninety two at bats, very nice,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: twenty six to four strikeout walk ratio. Torres and Bay
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: as the usual suspects, both have a home run often,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: but they both have really bad batting averages against him,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: and he's held Detroit's entiren lineup to a two point
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: seven average of five sixty six ops. So Barrios may
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: bounce back here man. I mean he's a better pitcher
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: than what he's shown recently, and he does have good
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers. He's gonna be up against Keener Montero, who's
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: kind of a guy that's just kind of an opener
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: guy for Detroit. I mean, he sometimes will go the
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: full like starters workload. He's got mediocre numbers four point
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: two eighty ra A not very good one point three
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: to eight whip. He's been better at home three point
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: eight to nine ERA at home. Not exactly pitching well
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: recently though, with a seven to four strike a walk
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: ratio of the last two outings. Didn't make it past
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: four and a third innings in either of them. His
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: team lost both games, and he gave up seven runs
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: across those seven and the third innings and nine hits
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: in addition to those four walks. He's not in great
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: form right now over those last couple of starts. He's
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: not the greatest pitcher really either, and he might not
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: go that deep into this game. Toronto, not all of
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: their heroes have seen him before, but the ones who
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: have in twelve at bats. I know it's a small
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: sample size, but Toronto is a four to seventeen average
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: off of in one thousand and four to seventeen ops
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: off of a lot of the damage is Springer three
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: for three with two O runs off of them, but
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: still the matchup. You gotta say this matchup favors favors
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Barrios in this one. So I think Toronto does have
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: the edge pretty much across the board in this one.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Toronto in this game. The
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: money is agreeing with me on this one, and coming
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: into Toronto as well. Detroit up for minus one on
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: one to minus one O eight, but fifty percent of
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: tickets eight to one percent of the cash coming into Toronto.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: I agree with it. I'm just a little bit worried
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: about Barrios's recent form, but other than that, I would say, yeah,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: the market is in agreement with me on that one.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: On Toronto, JC, what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: San Diego and Saint Louis. Uh. These teams played yesterday
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: as well. Saint Louis won a high scoring game nine
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: to seven. You Darvish had a really bad game yesterday,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: and I thought Gray would pitch fairly well because he
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: has still been good at home. He's still a pretty
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: good pitcher. But Gray gave up a lot of runs
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: yesterday too, although his strikeout walk numbers are pretty good
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: in the game, but still lots of runs scoring in
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: that game. I think Gray just kind of tired out. Man.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: He's getting a little bit up there in age this game.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: San Diego used a lot of their bullpen yesterday, man.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: So even though yes, San Diego normally they have the
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: better bullpen over Saint Louis, but very unrested bullpens for
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: both teams really after yesterday's high scoring games. So yeah,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: san Diego, I guess still has the bullpen edge. Saint
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Louis probably actually has the hitting edge because San Diego's
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: hitting has been so bad recently. So do with that
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: information what you will. I mean that all seems to
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: be kind of a wash, and then maybe it starts
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: coming down to the starting pitching matchup, which on the surface,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: this was like a major pitching mismatch here. Nick Pavetta
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: overall is obviously the way better pitcher of a Miles Mikolas.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Paveta having a good season two point eight one ERA
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: one whip. He's been worse on the road, though he
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: pitches better in that very picture friendly San Diego Stadium,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: three point seven eight ERA on the road, a worse
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: home run rate on the road, but he's pitching very well,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: allowing one or zero e runs at all of his
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: last five starts. San Diego is one four of those
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: five starts, and the only one they lost. He basically
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: got no run support. He has a thirty six to
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: six strikeout walk ratio over that span, including that one
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: to end June against Washington. There has a zero point
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: seven four ERA and four starts this month. Crazy, He's
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: really in good form right now. He dominates US Saint
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Louis for the most part too, although it's kind of
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: a small twenty three at bat sample size had a
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: one thirty average allowed four to twenty four oh ps,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: so Paveta has good numbers against Saint Louis. He's up
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: against Miles Mikolas, who is being made fun of recently
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: because he allows way too many homers five point two ERA,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: one point three whip on the season. His numbers are
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: not good. He's been better at home though, four point
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: one ninety RA at home. I wouldn't say he's a
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: good form right now, though he has a seven point
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: four to seventy ra this month, including that six home
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: run outing against the Cobs. Really bad. In his last
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: four outings, He's allowed five or more on runs and
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: three of them and failed to go five innings in
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: two of those three. His only good start recently was
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: against Washington, which is a really bad offense. Mikolas is
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: not a good forum right now. Man up against San Diego,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: his numbers are okay. In ninety six at bats two
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: seventy one average, allowed seven thirty four ohps, So I
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: wouldn't say that that's exactly good. So I think Paveta
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: does have the upper hand of the starting pitching matchup.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: But San Diego's laying a price on the road, and
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I think it seems like the professional money. The sentiment
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: is kind of again just that the price doesn't make
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: sense on San Diego. But I'm not sure that I agree, Like,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, man, I think this starting
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is a pretty big edge in favor of Paveta,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: a sixty nine percent to take. It's only fifty seven
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on San Diego, who are up
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: from my one twenty five to minus won twenty six.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe the way to look at this is
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: to just go to first five innings on this and
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: just avoid that bullpen situation. With the unrest of the bullpens.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: I would still probably lean to San Diego both full
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: game and in the first five innings, though, and I
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: disagree with the market on that one, but I because
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: the market read looks pretty strongly against it, I can't
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: play that. The White Sox are playing against the Cubs
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: in the Battle of Chicago, j C. What's up, man,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: I forget. I forget if I shout you, I shout
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: at you out or not. Thanks for hanging out, man.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: This is the rivalry, the cross city rivalry, man the
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: big inter league rivalry between the two Chicago teams, although
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: it's a very one sided rivalry right now. But the
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: White Sox are actually playing decently right now, winning five
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: of their last six games, so that's not too bad.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: But the returning over from a road trip, that very
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: successful road trip that it was all of those six
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: games against Pittsburgh in against Ampo has been kind of
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: cold recently, so they didn't really do that against really
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: great teams. Obviously, the Cubs are the way better team.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: The White Sox are in a bad spot returning home
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. But then again, you gotta think
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused because they are playing the Cubs here,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: and for the Cubs, I don't know, man, maybe the
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Cubs are gonna show up focus here too, because the
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Cubs coming off those big series against the Yankees and
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, the Cubs may maybe were kind of
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot to some extent or hangover spot,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: and they got kind of got caught by Kansas City
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: and they lost two out of three to Kansas City.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Actually give up a lot of runs in that game
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City, but I believe one of those is
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: a bullpen game for the Cubs. So it wasn't exactly
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: like the Cubs didn't They weren't really set up to
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: have their best starting pitchers going. And of course one
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: of their best starting pitchers is pitching today, e Minaga,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: so he didn't pitch in that bad series against the Royals.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: So the Cubs after that bad series might show up
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: focus here as well. The Cubs do have the better
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: bullpen here. Obviously, they have the way better offense. He
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: upset the advantage all around here. They do have Imanaga
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: pitching today, as I said, he's been really good two
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: point four ERA point nine two whip. He's actually been
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: even better on the road to a one point three
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: to three road ERA. He's pitching really well recently, allowing
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: no no more than three or runs in any of
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: his starts since he's come back from injury, and five
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: starts that's coming back from injury this month, he is
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: a two point one to three ERA and sixteen to
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: two strikeout walk ratiom pitching quite well, man, He's in
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: good form. He's coming up really good starts against both
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: the Yankees and the Red Sox. I don't know that
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be in a letdown spot here after that, man.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I just I mean, he's just a good pitcher in
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: good form right now. So I think he should continue
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: that against the White Sox. Though the White Sox they
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: only have twelve at bats against them's only four their
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: hetersn't seen him before. The White Sox actually have a
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: three thirty three average off him in Sosa, not Sammy Sosa,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Lennon's Sosa actually has a home run off him three
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: point thirty three average. Though allowed by Ema Naga to
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: the White Socks in nine to seventeen ops, but it's
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: such a small sample size. I wouldn't put much stock
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: into that at all. I expect emon Na gonna come
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: out and pitch well. White Socks have Adrian Howser pitching,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: and he's been pitching pretty well for the White Sox
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: one point eight ninety RA, one point two to three whip.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: He has a point six ninety RA at home, which
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: is ridiculous. White Socks have won all of his last
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: five starts, so he's kind of on a roll man
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: since he started pitching this season, he's been basically the
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: White sox best starter, which is crazy. White Socks well,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: not that they really have good starters, but Howser, basically,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: he's kind of an older dude. He came from out
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: of nowhere and he's just in there pitching well. He's
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: done not great against the Cubs and sixty seven at
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: bats fourteen to eleven strike a walk ratio is really bad.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: I mean that's wild, but he's walked half seven times,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: so it looks like he kind of just pitched around
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: half a lot. He has a lot of two eighty
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: four average to the Cubs though, seven forty three oh bs,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: so we know the Cubs do hit pretty well. The
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup just kind of on the surface had
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: me kind of looking towards an under in this game too,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: though the money looks like it is coming in on
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: the under. The totals drop from eight and eight with
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: juice only over to eight. Both bullpens are at least rested,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: neither team played yesterday, sixty percent of tickets on the under,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on the under. I
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: wouldn't disagree with that. The under looks okay in this game.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe you go first five innings just if you don't
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: want to deal with like the White Sox bullpen in
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: this one, although at least they're rested, so I don't
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: know if I really hate that. So either way, I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: think the under maybe it's worth a look there. And
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, I mean, you're paying too much of a
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: price with the Cubs, even though obviously they have every
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: edge in this game. Sixty one percent of tickets, only
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash on them, and they're
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: down for minus one eighty. They might won seventy one,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: but that is quite a price to lay with them.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Braves at Texas, this is a game where I completely
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: disagree with the the market read on this one, man,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I completely disagree with it, to the point where I
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: almost wanted to make a play here. The market is
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: completely indicating on the Atlanta side, and I can't figure
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: it out for the life of me. Texas is down
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: for minus one sixty to minus one forty three, fifty
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets on Texas. I mean, it makes
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: sense that Texas would be the public team because they
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: have the better record, but fifty eight percent of the
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on Atlanta. I think, really it's just
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: that the professional money is basically just constantly of the
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: opinion that Atlanta is better than the record looks. And
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: I agree with that, but you got to look at
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: the specific matchup, man, And in this matchup, I'm not
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: really sure that I agree with that at all. I mean,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Texas they're staying at home. I mean, I don't really
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be in a letdown spot coming off
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: of sweeping the A's. I mean, the A's suck. Texas
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: is just staying at home with momentum here. Yes, they
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: had a day off. Both these teams had yesterday off,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: but still Texas winners of six of their last seven
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: and actually eight of their last ten as well. Texas
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: pretty hot right now. Atlanta, Yes, they're starting a road trip,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: so I mean you do tend to be focused when
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: you start road trip. Atlanta is coming off a couple
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: of embarrassing losses at home to Stara at Cisco where
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: they got outscored eighteen to three across those two outings.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Across those two starts, I should say, so. Yes, Atlanta
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: probably in a pissed off mood here, But I mean,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: what is there to really like about Atlanta in this game? Man?
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have the hitting. Atlanta is not even
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: that good ops wise their twentieth so they're basically bottom third.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Obviously they're better than Texas, who's a bottom four offense,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: but still there's not that much of an offensive advantage
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: for Atlanta here. And as far as the bullpen, I mean,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: both bullpens are close to even surprising. Atlanta's bullpen has
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: moved their way up a little bit of an era.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen era I'm looking at Whip here. Their bullpen
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: era is way worse than Texas. So you do still
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: have to give the bullpen edge to Texas here, and
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge I don't understand how it's not
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: a massive edge to Texas. Joey Wentz is pitching for
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: the Braves. He's been all over the map this year,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: both literally and figuratively. Has a five point seven one
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: ERA at one point six one WHIP. He's been on
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: three different teams this year alone. Four point two to
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: ninety R in the road isn't as bad, I guess.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if that's just with the Braves
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: or if that's overall. But he was with Pittsburgh for
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of the season, then he was with Minnesota,
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: and then Minnesota he was pitching really poorly. From Minnesota,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: they lost every game where he pitched. They moved on
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: or no, they won one game with him, and then
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: they moved on from him after that after they won
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: one game in which he pitched, but it was he
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: didn't even do well in that game and they just
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: had a big lead in that game against the Cubs.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: And now he's pitched two scoreless outings against Saint Louis
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees here combined for the Braves. But I mean,
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna go deep into these games. Man. He's
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: basically a relief pitcher. He did go four innings last
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: time out, but there probably gonna have him go I
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: would guess still around fifty sixty pitches, so he's probably
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: gonna get you about three four innings, I would imagine
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: in this game, which is what he did in his
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: last two outings. He didn't allow any runs. He did
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: have an eight to two strike a walk ratio, which
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: isn't that bad, but I still don't think he's trustworthy
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: at all based on what he's done this year. I
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: don't like it at all, and against this Texas offense
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: that isn't even that good. They've seen Wentz a bit,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: and in forty six at bats they have four home
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: runs against him from four different hitters, eleven to eight
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, three seventy batting average, and one
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: thousand and two o ps. So Wentz has terrible numbers
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: against Texas. You're probably gonna get Atlanta's bullpend in this
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: game early on as well, so you're almost getting essentially
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: an Atlanta bullpend game, even though at least their bullpen
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: is rested, but so is Texas. Is up against Eovaldi
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: for Texas, who's been really good this season. One point
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: five eighty ra point eighty five whip. I don't like
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: that they keep showing when he was on the red Sox.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: Let's not think about that anymore. He's been a little
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: bit worse at home, but two point one fourty e
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: ra as if that's even bad. It's not. He's pitching
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: really well recently as well. But he does have an
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: elbow injury, so that's the one thing. Maybe maybe the
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: professional betters know something about this injury, man, maybe they're
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: not Vince the Yavaldi is going to continue pitching well
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: because he missed his turn of the rotation due to
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: an elbow injury. He didn't go on the disabled list
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: or anything, but they skipped him in the rotation, so
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: he hasn't pitched for twelve days. They pushed him back.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean exactly. I don't know, man,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: But he's a veteran, so I don't think even though
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: these starting pitchers they really like to pitch on schedule,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: but he's a veteran, so I don't think he's really
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be that affected by His last three starts were
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: all really good pitching. In July, Texas won all three starts.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: He allowed one run total across eighteen to two thirds innings,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: nineteen to two strike out walker ratio, twelve hits allowed
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: point four to eighty RA. So he's been pitching really well.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: It's just a matter of like, what do you think
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: is going on with this injury that he has here
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: to his elbow? That is something to look at, I guess.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: But his numbers against the Braves are totally dominant. I mean,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: fifty eight at bass, he's only allowed nine hits to them. Yes,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: one of them is in a Conya home run, but
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: still he's allowed one fifty five average to twelve four
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio of four forty six ops, which
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: is very very low. So if the Evaldi is not
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: suffering from that injury, I don't get what this money
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: is doing here at all. I think Texas either. Maybe
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: when the money line, because the money lines dropping, maybe
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: you just get a really cheap price on Texas on
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: the money line to just go with that. I believe
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Texas has been pretty good as a home favorite this
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: year too, so that's another thing to keep in mind there.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Texas in that game, man.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just the way that it is. And
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I mean a run line play could be maybe in
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: order as well. Potentially Cleveland at Kansas City. Cleveland played yesterday,
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: so Cleveland slight disadvantage for that reason because they played
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: yesterday and Kansas City, of course did not. Cleveland played
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: that game against Baltimore yesterday. Or now they're starting a
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: road trip going to Kansas City here, so Cleveland no
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: rest plus travel and they just lost. Cleveland was hot
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: and they just lost their win streaks. That could hang
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: them over to this game as well. So there are
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: definitely some disadvantages for Cleveland here. Kansas City is rested
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: and they have the better bullpen. Anyway, both offenses are
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: pretty weak, although Cleveland still has the better of the
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: two offenses because Kansas City is so bad. But I'm
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: pretty much leaning Kansas City in this game. If you
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: couldn't tell. Gavin Williams is pitching for the I almost
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: said the Guardians. I'm gonna keep calling them the Indians.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: Let's just bring it back, man. Fuck all this PCBs.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Williams three point five four era in the season is good,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: but a one point three to eight whip is not good.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Another guy who puts too many guys on base. He's
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road four point one
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: to seven road ERA, coming off of a really good
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: start against the A's though, where he very Unwilliams like.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: He struck out eleven guys in that starting, gave up
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: four hits and seven innings, lining one run, but that's
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: not what he usually does. He usually gets you five
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: ish innings, five to six innings and will probably allow
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: around three or in runs. That's typically what you get
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: out of Williams. He has a three point zero four
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: ERA this month, but even with that ridiculous strikeout game,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: he had walked five guys out before that against the
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: White Sox, which is not a good sign. He's walked
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: at least three guys. He had walked at least three
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: guys in six straight out and he's before that most
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: recent one. So I'm not ready to say that Williams
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: is all of a sudden in form or something, because
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: he basically never does that, so that looks like more
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: of an outlier to me. Still, even with those eleven strikeouts,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: he has a twenty six to thirteen strike a walker
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: race year this month, which still isn't that good. Hasn't
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: allowed that many hits this month, though he's facing a
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: weak KC offense, though, and he actually has done well
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: against them in the past. Is seventy eight at bats,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: nineteen to five strike a walk race year two thirty
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: one average five to seventy two ops. Williams does have
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: good numbers against Kansas City, so I don't really want
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: to fade him for that reason. Walker is pitching for
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: the Royals. Decent season for him, three point six two
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: R and one point two four WHIP. He's been good
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: at home two point seven two RA. Definitely good numbers
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: at home here pretty pitcher friendly park. He's only allowed
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: one on and run each in the last two outings,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: although he did walk three guys in the first of
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: those two. He's walked four and three guys in the
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: two of the three outings this month, and in the
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: outing where he walked one the last time out, he
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: only had one strikeout so walka. His strikeout walk ratio
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: isn't good this month ten to eight. That's not a
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: good ratio. Three point sixty RA is good though usually
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: more often than not he does like limit the damage
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: though I think he's only allowed more than four and
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: runs once all season. It was a weird start against
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: the a as it was at home. But still he's
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: been pitching fairly consistently, at least this year. Up against Cleveland.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: He does have pretty good numbers in eighty two at
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: bats two twenty average allowed six h two ops, eighteen
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: to nine strike a walk ratio isn't that great, but
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: overall Walker does have good numbers against them, so I
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: would lean Yet Kansas City here. Cleveland is actually the
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: public side now getting fifty percent tickets only fifty two
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash Kansas City down of minus went away.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: But if you like Kansas City, you get a cheap
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: price on them. I would say full game because again
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: I think you want to factor in the fact that
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Cleveland had to travel and didn't get any rest because
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: they played yesterday. So I think it all becomes an
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: advantage for KC here, even though their offense is a
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: very good If you want to look at a total
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: on the under, I think that also kind of makes sense.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Total is flipped from eight and a half juice toly
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: over to juice to the under. Sixty percent takes ninety
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the under. I mean,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: ninety nine can't be correct, but those are the ways
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: that I look at that game again. Not a play
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: for me, though, A's at Houston. Houston just returned from
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: a road trip yesterday last night, and I told you
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: I kind of liked the A's in that game yesterday.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: First five. I think they got it done in the
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: first five innings and in the full game. I think
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: they won both aspects of the game yesterday. But that
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: was a really bad pitching matchup for Houston too, and
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: they were turned home from a road trip, so it
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: was a double wham. You have a spot for Houston now.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: A lot of times when a team returns home from
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: a road trip and they do badly in that first game,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: they tend to play a lot better in that second game.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: So it is a better spot for Houston here. But
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: they did lose a win streak, and a lot of
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: times when a team loses a win streak, they get
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: hung over a little bit into the next game, although
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: it was only a four game win streak, so maybe
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Houston won't be as hungover the A's. Well. Again, well,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: they played yesterday, so I don't really need to look
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: at the schedule here, but obviously Houston has the better
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: bullpen here. There wasn't a whole lot of bullpen usage,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think in the game yesterday. So Houston does
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen. The A's have Jeffrey Springs pitching,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: and he might actually be the better of the two
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: starters here, because again Houston does not have a good
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: starter pitching today. Springs has been okay for the A's
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: four point one ad R a one point two to
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: whip slightly better on the road, but pretty similar road.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: And Holmes splits this month four point five year fifteen
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: to four strike at walker ration. That's not too bad,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: although he's coming off getting hammered by Cleveland for five
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: runs off a nine hits and four innings. He didn't
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: walk anybody, but the prior starts to that, he loved
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs in every start going all
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: the way back through the beginning of June, and he'd
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: got at least five innings in every one of those starts,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: so he was in good form. I don't think I'm
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: ready to say that he's out of form or anything
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: like that. I think maybe because it kind of an outlier,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: he got hit around a little bit in that last outing, which, unfortunately,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: because I think I gave out a play on the
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: A's in that game. Springs is also unfamiliar to Houston.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Houston only has two hitters we've ever seen him before,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: and they're zero for three Offen with two strikeouts and
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: no walks. So Springs actually has a little bit of
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: an unfamiliarity edge here too. So even though the situation
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: kind of says, well, Houston is in one of those
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: spots where it's a second game back from the road trip,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: you ten to bounce back a little bit, but the
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup looks like it's in favor of the A's
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: man for the starting pitching. At least, Ryan Gusto is
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Astros, and he has not been pitching
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: with Gusto four point four to six e RA and
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: and even worse one point four to Whip. He's been
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: really bad at home too, with a five point twenty
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: nine home the RAM. He's back into kind of like
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: an opener role. That looks like here too, is he
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: was pitching starters workload basically, he was going Star Wars
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: workloads and a lot of these outings and now his
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: last two outings, both against Seattle on the road, there
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: were one inning outings each actually at least one of
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: them was out of the bullpen, though he actually pitched
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: two straight games, two straight days out of the bullpend.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: But now he's back in the starting rotation, so maybe
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: they will let him go a little bit. I think
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: we'll probably get maybe about four innings out of Gusto here.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: He does actually have good numbers against the A's and
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: thirteen at bats they're oh for thirteen offen with six
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: strikeouts in one walk, so Gusto has actually completely dominated
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: the A's hitters. But I don't really expect that to continue.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, Gusto just is not having a great season.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: He's not pitching particularly well. We'll starting pitching, I think
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: does favor the A's here. The money is coming in
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: on the A's. Houston's down for minus one sixty minus
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: one thirty three, so some pretty strong market indicators coming
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: in on the A's eighty four percent of tickets on Houston.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Public seems to think Houston will bounce back here. But
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: the money's sixty percent of cash coming in on the A's,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: and I would agree with the A's, but I don't
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: want to deal with the A's bullpen man, so I
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: would say A's probably can get them an underdog. As
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: an underdog in the first five innings, that's probably the
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: way that I would look at that game. A's in
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: the first five. Washington is at Minnesota. Minnesota's are turning
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: over from the Pacific Coast. They went into elevation, played Colorado,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: didn't have a good series there, almost got swept, and
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: then they lost two out of three to the Dodgers,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: which is at least, you know, a better that's at
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: least a better result from them. They at least kind
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: of played competitively against the Dodgers. But they're returning on
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: from that, man off a huge series against the Dodgers,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: having a track from the Pacific Coast, not having a
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: great season, and you got to deal with the return
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: home distractions here. So I don't think it's a very
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: good spot for Minnesota here. Man in Washington, they haven't
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: been playing well with their new manager in front office,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: but they've been playing a little bit better recently. They
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: did just take two out of three from Cincinnati, so
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: that's not too bad. And now they're starting a road
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: trip after getting shut out against Cincinnati in the last
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: game in that series. So day off for both of
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: these teams yesterday. It's a better spot for Washington. Man Again,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: they're starting a road trip, getting away from home, usually
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: a focused spot against Minnesota, returning home from a road trip,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: and you know, flying across a couple of time zones
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: instead of just one like Washington is. So Washington is
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: in the better spot here, and they have the better
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: starter out of the two two I would say, the
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: more proven starter at least Mackenzie Gore pitching for Washington
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: three point five ninety R one point two to seven whip.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's a little bit too wild. He's been
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: very similar home and away. It doesn't really matter. He's
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: coming of a really horrendous outing against San Diego. He
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: gave up eight runs and two and a third against
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: his former team. But I would probably say that's a
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: bit of an outlier though, because I think he was
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: distracted by the fact that he pitched in the All
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: Star Game. And I think the All Star Game became
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: a distraction a lot of times that first game out
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: of the All Star break, especially if that pitcher pitched
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: in the All Star Game. Sometimes it kind of throws
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: them off and they're distracted and they just don't pitch well.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: So I expect Gore to pitch better in this game
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: and be back in form because the prior to starts,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: or prior three starts he had made prior to the
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: All Star Game, he'd allowed two or one or and
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: run at all three, including one against San Diego. So
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: San Diego also had another edge and that they had
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: just seen him. So I'm gonna say that's more of
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: an outlier, even though I do worry that Gore always
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: walks too many guys, But other than that, I do
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: think he probably has a little bit of the advantage
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: in this game. He's going up against a pretty weak
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Minnesota offense here, and Minnesota only has three hitters who
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: have even ever seen him before, and in twelve at
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: bats they have four strikeouts, no walks, a two point
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: fifty average four eighty one oh ps. So I expect
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: Gore to pitch pretty well in this game. Nate, what's
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: up man, Thanks for hanging out. He's going up against
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Zebbi Matthews, who is a young pitcher who at least
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: has really good strikeout stuff, and he's been dealing with
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: injuries though, Man, that's the unfortunate thing. You don't like
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: to see these talented like hard throwing pitchers get injured
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: like that all the time because it's like what could
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: be right now? Right? Because they could be like really
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: really good, and you know me, I like good pitching.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: H Zebby, by the way, not actually his real name,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: his birth name. His parents aren't that insane. I don't
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: know how he got that nickname, to be honest, six
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: It has kind of a ring to it though it has.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a zesty name though, Zesty Matthews six
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: point two sixty r in the season for Zebby one
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: point six to one whip. I mean six point two
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: six yrrashes. Did I say that wrong? Six point two
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: sixty ra one point six to one whip. He hasn't
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: been that good this season. He's in better at home though,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: the four point five yard at home. He's been injured,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: but it looks like he's pitching on schedule though. I
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: mean it says he was on the injured list, but
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: he pitched against Colorado, so he has not been on
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: the injured list that recently because he's making a scheduled
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: start here, so I don't know what the deal is there.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: He gave up five runs at Course Field. He did
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: give up a home run. I might give him a
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: pass for that because it was at course field. He
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: still had a six to one strike a walk ratio there.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been pitching that poorly, man like. His strike
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio is really good actually, thirty one to nine,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: thirty one strike outs to twenty three innings pitched so far.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: He's just giving up too many hits twenty eight hits,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: and some of the hits have been untimely. So I
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: actually think Zebbie Matthews is better than his record looks,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: and we'll look at his numbers up against whoever the
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: hell he's facing here Washington. They probably have never seen
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: him before, would be my guess, because it is an
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: injured league game, yeat Washington has never seen him before,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: So I actually think Matthews has a little bit of
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: an advantage in this game as well. I would lean
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: towards Washing. But the money line, I mean, all the
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: money came in on Minnesota. Maybe they it might have
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: been that Matthews was injured and maybe Minnesota was gonna
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: go with the worst starter and then they switched it
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: to Matthews. Because I don't see why the number would
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: have moved from minus one sixteen to minus one sixty seven.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: That seems ridiculous, but we do just see fifty eight
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Washington. For whatever reason, I don't
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: see how Washington would be a public team seventy three
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Minnesota, though, But I don't
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: agree with the Minnesota side, again because I think Gore
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: is the more proven picture. Washington is a terrible bullpend though,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: so Minnesota's bullpen's not great either. So the way that
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: I would do this game probably is for the side.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Washington in the first five innings
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: as the underdog there. I think that's too much of
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: a price. Minnesota really should not be laying a price
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: like this in a return home spot against the better starter.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: So I think Washington underdog first five innings makes sense.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: And I think the under in the first five innings
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: also makes sense because I actually like both starting pitchers,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: and they're both fairly unfamiliar to the opposing hitters as well,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: So I like both of those ways of looking at it.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: Ninety two percent of tickets and only sixty percent of
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: cash on the over total just sitting at eight, which
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: is a decent total. Here, neither offense is really that
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: good either. But because the bullpen sucks so bad, I
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: think I would say first five innings under is a
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: way to look at that game Seattle at Anaheim. These
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: two teams played yesterday. Anaheim return home from a road trip,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: and I told you that's a bad spot returning home
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. Even though yeah, Anaheim would be
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: focused on a good Seattle team, you know, because it
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: is a big divisional matchup, Anaheim is starting to fall off, man,
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: which I told you they were gonna do that. Sorry, Andrew,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: and Andrew's wife, they are Angels fans, or at least
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: his wife is the Angels. I told you they were
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: not as good as the record looked. I mean, they've
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: allowed way more runs than they've scored themselves this year.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: They're not a good team. They have a really bad bullpen.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens saw some usage last night. Angels took loss Seattle.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: They're going for it this year. Man, As I said,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: they just made that big trade for Naylor. I'm probably
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: thinking that he won't be in the lineup tonight though,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: because he's gonna have to travel and whatever. But when
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: Naylor gets into the lineup, I don't know if there's
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be any You don't really need the chemistry shift though.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: That's the thing though, Like maybe you need some chemistry
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: in the clubhouse or whatever, but in baseball there's less
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: chemistry to be aware of, right, Like in basketball, everybody's
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: you know, playing off of each other, and everybody needs
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: to you know, be in that chemistry in game, but
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: that's not really the same thing in baseball. Yes, you
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: need that locker room chemistry. You definitely need that to
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: play as a team. In baseball, that's definitely a huge thing.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: But as far as Naylor, just like entering the line up,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's into the individual batter, right, so overall
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: it should be a good thing. I don't know if
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be in there tonight, and it shouldn't have
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: that much of an effect on any individual game though,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: just like over the period of the rest of the season.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: It should help Seattle, but anyway, Anaheim definitely Anaheim has
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two bullpens. I would say Seattle
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: with or without Naylor also has the better hit. And
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: Seattle has the better starter on the mount today too,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: because it's Brian wu He's been great. Two point nine
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: one era point nine to four whip. It has been
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road, as most Seattle
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: pitchers are. Three point three six era is still not
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: even bad Wu. I mean, he's just continuing to pitch well.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: Two point seven to ninety four three starts this month,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: pitched in the All Star Game. Then he came out
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: of the All Star Game and had a little bit
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: of a shaky outing against Houston. Give him a couple
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: of homers, a couple of dingers, but he's still pitched
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: six innings, had a six to one stroke a walk
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: ratio along with those four earned runs allowed, So it
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: wasn't even that bad a start, and I think you
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: can give him a little bit a bit of a
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: pass because the All Star Game, as I said, was
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: a bit of a distraction. But overall he's been good.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: Nineteen to five strike a walk ratio this month, well
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: below one hittle out per inning. WU is a consistent pitcher.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: He's continuing to pitch well, and he's been really good
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim. In fifty eight career at bats, he's allowed
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: two home runs, but they're both Joe Adell, who's like
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: the only guy in Anaheim's lineup that's done damn off
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: of him. He has a fourteen to two strike at
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, one ninety average allowed and five twenty seven
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: ops allowed to Anaheim, so WU looks like he should
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: be in line for a good start year. He's going
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: up against Jose Soriano actually is pitching better recently. Soriano
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: does have pretty good strikeout stuff at the very least,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: so he does have kind of a high ceiling. Three
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: point eight three ERA for him this year not bad.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: One point four to three whip is pretty bad. He's
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: way worse at home to five point six five YRRA
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: at home, so Soriano is significantly worse at home. But
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: his last couple of starts have been alright. As far
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: as three of the last four starts, he's allowed two
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs, going at least five innings in
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: all three of those, and doing that against Atlanta, Arizona
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: and Philadelphia. Good offense is the two of them are
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: on the road. And I still worry about Soriano because
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: his strike out walk ratio this month is still really bad.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: Nineteen to twelve. He's walked at least two guys in
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: six straight outings, so he's he's still wild he's still
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: walking guys. His strikeout rate actually isn't even that high
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: right now either, so he's not even blowing people away.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: So I think it's three point one three ERA this
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: month is actually a little bit misleading. So I don't
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: know if I trust Soriano here for those reasons. He
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: has been good against Seattle, though, and Naylor is included
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: in this uh in these lineup numbers. Now, these matchup
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: numbers and seventy five at bats against Seattle, twenty to
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: six strikeout walk raceio on one seventy three average, four
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: point thirty five ops. So Soriano has done pretty well
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: against Seattle. So what do we want to do with this?
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, I still I slightly lean to Seattle because
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: I just think they have the advantage across the board here.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: But you are having to pay a price on the road,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: and the money looks like it's against it. Professional money,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: you know, usually doesn't like these road favorites very much,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: especially when it looks too obvious. Seattle left for minus
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: one sixteen to minus one twenty three seventy nine percent
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only sixty four percent of the cash on Seattle,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: so the cash is fading Seattle here, you could look
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: maybe to an under in this game. I wouldn't want
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: to go full game under though, because we saw some bullpen.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: You suggesting Anaheim's bullpen is really something you want to avoid.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: So if you think Soriano, because he has good matchup numbers,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: do you think he is gonna do well here and under?
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe makes sense and the money is agreeing with that.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: The totals never made and a half to eight and
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: a half with juice on the under, fifty percent of
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: the tickets and eighty eight percent of the casual on
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: the under. So maybe that's a way to look But
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: Soriano really does worry me, man, So maybe the better
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: way to look at this is Anaheim under their team total.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: Like basically, just go with Seattle, go with Wu and
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: whatever bullpen men come in from Seattle here. The bullpen men,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: the bullmen, the bulls, they're professional bulls man. They go
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: and they bang a bunch of dudes. Wives. But yeah,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: if you want to look at it that way, I
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: think that might be a fine way to look at
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: this game too, is to go Anaheim under their team total.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: And finally, so that has been I always forget to
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: put this up. That has been the run down. My
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: apologies like forgetting to put the graphics I made these
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: new graphics man or chat GBT did I keep forgetting?
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: But let's go to the best bet segment now, baby
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: total tell you what's up. And I didn't skip any
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: games because my only bet that I have is in
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: the last game on the board, and I told you
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: it's an under, and it is. We're gonna go under
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: in Mets Giants, which I think it's one of these
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: games where the public is gonna look at it and go, oh, well,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: the Mets, they have a good offense the Giants. Then
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: public knows the Giants have devers. Now they see the
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: Giants as a team that has a good record, So
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: the public looks at one of these games. The public
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: will look at a game like this and think, oh,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: I want to play it over in this game, especially
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: when the total looks quite low like this. But of
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: course the odds makers put a total this low out
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: there for a reason. Man, The oddsmakers are basically telling
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: you they think this is gonna be a lower scoring game.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: It's seven and a half for reasons. San Francisco does
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: play in one of the more pitcher friendly parks in baseball,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: so we have all of that going for us here.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: I saw this out here at a minus one oh five.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: I saw the price on this base all over the place.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: But again I will reiterate, seven is a key number
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: in baseball, so you want to be on the right
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: side of seven. So under seven and a half, even
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: if you have to pay a little bit of juice
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: on it, I think is the way then you want
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: to go here because a seven is how you break
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: the three to three tie, right, So I'm expecting a
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: low scoring game here, and I think we'll see that
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: the market is agreeing on this one. We do see
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the tickets, but eighty one percent
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. The total has actually
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: flipped from seven and a half juice to the under,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: the juice to the over, though, but the cash percentage
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: is what I'm looking at here where I think the
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: cash percentage is the way to look at this game.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: As far as the side is concerned, we can talk
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: about the side briefly too. Giants are having to travel
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: cross country, man, so it is a bad spot for
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: the giants returning home from a road trip. They finally
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: broke out of their slump, or they've lost six games
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: in a row. The slump discontinued from them as they
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: beat up on Atlanta two games in a row. But
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: now they're having to fly back to the Pacific Coast,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: and again, returning home can be a distracted spot, and
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: it can throw you off having a having to deal
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: with a huge time zone shift like that. I'll think
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: both teams are having to deal with the time zone
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: shift here, but again you return home, it's a distracted spot.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: But maybe they won't be as distracted because playing the
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: Mets is a big series. Mets are the hotter team though.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: Right now they've won four games in a row and
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: they're starting a road trip, so yes, they have to
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: fly across country. But I much prefer a team that's
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip against a team that's finishing a
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: road trip. And oddly enough, I don't have any of
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: those sides stay because usually if you have this many
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: teams like you do tonight, you do on a Friday
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: a lot. You have this many teams are turning home
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, playing a team starting a road trip,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: there's a very good chance I'm going to be on
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: at least one of those teams that's starting the road trip.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: Although I'm staying away from all those sides here, but
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: I do lean to the Mets as well for that reason,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: I do think the Mets might be worth a look here.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: The Mets too have a huge offensive edge in this
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: game as well, so the one big advantage they have
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: the Mets are the better offense. Where are they at here?
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: Am I? I'm looking at a bullpenny Ara, I'm like,
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: why are they not up here? Francisco Giants have a
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: very good bullpen. They have the best bullpen the r
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: and the second best bullpen whip, So the Giants have
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge. The Mets are okay bullpen wise in
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: the middle of the pack. They're hitting the Mets are
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: way better, though, Mets are They've actually dropped off a
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: little bit. They're tied for tenth in hitting ops wise,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: they're just still pretty good. Giants are way down like
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: in the bottom third man Giants twenty fourth, So again,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge goes to the Giants. Both bullpen's arrested here, though,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: so I think the bullpen edge is a little bit
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: less of an advantage when both teams have all their
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: good relievers available. Mets do have the offensive edge here,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: and even though I do think Logan Web is the
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: better of these two pitchers, I think the situation kind
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: of counteracts to that. So I do agree with the Mets.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: The market is agreeing with the Mets. Sixty three percent
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the Giants. The public still wants the
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: Giants for whatever reason, maybe because the public likes Logan Web,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: and so do. I have fifty eight percent of the cash,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: which you'll see in a minute. I do like him.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going under here, so I do like him in
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: this game and in general. Fifty eight percent of the
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: cash though on San Francisco, So the money is agreeing
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: with the Mets, and I do agree with that. Clay
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: Holmes pitching for the Mets. He's a guy that I
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: don't tend to really completely trust, but he's having a
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: pretty decent season and been pretty consistent. Three point four
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: to eighty RA and one point two to seven WHIP.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good both home and away, very similar numbers.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: He's not in the greatest form right now, which does
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: worry me. He has a five point six sixty RA
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: this month, eleven to eight strike at walk ratio. That's
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: all bad. So again I worry about that, but he's
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: gone at least five innings in all of them. He
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: doesn't get like absolutely annihilated in any of those starts.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: Although the Mets have struggled with him on the momb Man,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: they've actually lost five of his last seven starts. Yes,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: I do worry about all of that, but it hasn't
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: gone that well for me, like looking at trends like
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: that anyway. So whatever he's allowed, two or few are
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: on runs still in all but two starts going all
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: the way back to mid May, so he is at
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: least still consistent, not align that many runs. He is
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: going up against a fairly weak Giants lineup, and that's
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: kind of where the handicap starts coming into play here.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: He's been fairly good against the Giants, and thirty one
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: at bats he sell him to a two fifty eight average,
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: which is pretty low. They've hit him for a little
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: bit of power seven to sixty two ops, and of
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: course it was Devers that has the home run off,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: but still I'm not as worried about that. So I
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: think overall his numbers are okay enough here, even the
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: four to four strike a walk ratio with two of
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: those walks also being devers doesn't look that great. But
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: I still think Holmes can get us through this thing.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: And we're also of course going to be relying on
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: the ace of the Giants staff Logan Web here to
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: get us this under which I think is gonna be
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: a good thing. Logan Web has been really good almost
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: the whole season. Three point oh eighty r and one
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: point two to one whip. He's really good at home
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: two point two to three ERA at home. Not much
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: to dislike, although he's coming up a pretty rough outing
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: against Toronto on the road. Gave up four and runs there,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: eleven hits and six innings, only had one strikeout, so
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: we do worry a little bit. He said, two rough voutings.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: The other one was against the Dodgers here in this stadium.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: But I think he was distracted again by the All
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Star Game. And again, even though Web is a veteran,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: the All Star Game is kind of a distraction. So
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: those starts were both around the All Star Games. So
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: he had a bad start right before the All Star Game.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: Still had six strikeouts, one walk in that one, and
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: then you had a bad start coming out of the
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: All Star Game. But I think overall, Man, he's just
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: so consistent that I think the real outlier there, I
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: think was because of the All Star Game. He had
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: a lot more than three and runs in any start
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: all season except for one at San Diego, so it
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: looks like that was just complete outlier stuff. Man, So
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's really going completely out of for
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: him here. And his numbers against the Mets are really
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: good and one hundred and seven at bats, even though
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: they're really familiar with him, he's pretty much held them down.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: Alonzo does have a home runoff, but that's one of
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: two hits he has sixteen at bats, and Nimo has
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: a home runoff, but that's his only hit in seventeen
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: at bats. So the two guys that have home runs
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: have been really bad against him as well. Twenty six
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: to seven strike a walk ratio against him, one ninety
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: six average allowed, five point fifty four ops. Web does
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: have really good numbers against him as well. And we'll
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: keep the bullpens in here because they are rested, like
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: I said, and one of them, the Giants, is a
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: very good bullpen, and the Mets bullpen is still at
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: least kind of in the upper half, at least for
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: the most part. So under oh sorry, under seven and
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: a half Mets Giants is my only play of the
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: day here, it better come through, man, Charles. What's up man?
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out that but Friday Live, Mets overpaid
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: for Soda? I mean, I like that he's gone from
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, though, I mean he is still a good hitter.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, he's probably not worth the price tag.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: He might come around, though, if the Mets are gonna
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: be in the playoffs, he might do something in the playoffs,
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: So I think does he He notoriously doesn't doesn't play
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: that doesn't play that well in the playoffs either though, right?
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: Is that right about Soda? I think that's true. I
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: think he's been a choke or in the playoffs, so
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe that's not gonna help them either. Be what's up, man?
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: The wind is blowing out? Oh at San Francisco. I
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: could check that real quick if you want. Let me
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: bring that up. Actually, we have Baseball weather here. Up.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: I'm in the wrong tab, but whatever MLB weather report.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: I didn't even look at the weather report man, to
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: be honest, I really only look at it that much
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field is the is the field
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: that gets really affected by the wind because it's like
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: right on the lake. Although I know the Giants Stadium
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: Oracle or whatever the hell it is now Oracle database technologies. Man,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: the Giants I know are right on the Pacific coast
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: as well. The water's right there. But the lake effect
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: is way way crazier in Chicago than the ocean effect.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: So looking at this game, we're seeing a moderate breeze
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: blowing out, So I'm not worried about that at all.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: Moderate breeze. It says it's ten miles an hour. I
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: mean that's slightly strong. I guess it's a little bit average. Wait,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: Soda was a World Series MVP, I don't think so. No,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: which World Series was even in? With which team? With
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: the Gnats you think, I don't even know his he
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: was with the Nats right before he was with the Yankees.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember. Man, it's all a blur to me.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: I'll go back and look at that and maybe i'll
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: report back to you tomorrow. But yeah, as far as
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: it's a it's a small wind blowing out, and it's
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: blowing out to center, by the way, so it's not
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: blowing out to left or right. So if it was
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: blowing out to right, I'd be a little bit more
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: worried about it too. In San Francisco there by the way,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: it's only going to be sixty degrees at game time
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: there out on the ocean there, so Northern California there
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: on the ocean, so it's not gonna be hot either.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: And the cool weather helps keep the balls down as well.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: And it's it's summer long balls, man, Summer long balls
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: are not going to be happening this one. Instead, you'll
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: get summer low balls. Twenty nineteen. That's actually really good.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: Actually eleven bombs and thirty RBIs and forty three at bass,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: so he is pretty good. Forty three games, I mean
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: that is pretty good. So okay, yeah, but anyway, yeah,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: so I'm not really too worried about the weather there
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: by the way, just because I have it up here.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: As far as the weather report, we do have some
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: rain going on, this possibility of possibility of a rain
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: out in Pittsburgh and in New York tonight. It looks
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: like so for those two games, it looks like the
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: rain possibility is real. In those two, but not a
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: whole lot going on as far as the weather there.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: So that's the weather Report maybe weather the weather report
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: segment to this man, this show will just go on
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: for forever. Thanks as for hanging out. Been another long
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: one Friday. It's a full baseball slate, so thank you everybody.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: Once again, Under Mets Giants is the play today, the
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: only one that I've given out today. Learn to toad
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: on Twitter. You can find me learn to toad on
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: Instagram as well, where I do post all the plays
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: in short form on Instagram better off Dead bett o
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: R of course on YouTube where most of you guys
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: are right now. You can find me on the audio
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: platforms as well, and please you know, listen, watch, like, subscribe,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: comment all those things, man, give me some ratings on
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: Spotify and Apple, especially because it helps out the podcast
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: man monitor. There's monetization on the audience that will help
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: me out. And covered in you because my YouTube uke
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: uh channel there, which I've had for a long time,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: so you'll see old videos where I was really really
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: obese and had hair back in the day. Uh. But
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to use that channel again to double post
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: all the covers that I post on Twitter, so check
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: that out and patreon dot com, slash learn to toad
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: you can support my Patreon and for the Patreon content,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: it's all Yuke stuff. For the bonus content right now,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: you get a spot feed with the YouTube stuff if
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: you joined at a certain level there, and then at
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: the highest level you get requests from me where I
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: put out a comment or a post there. Soon as
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: you can comment on to requests there, and I will
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: try to prioritize those requests. Yeah, I just upload a
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: freak on a leash there because that was a fan favorite.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: And yesterday or two days ago was the anniversary of
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: Corn playing at the Crazy Woodstock ninety nine show. The
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: crowds started again really wild during Corn. It was a
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: if you watch that set. I've watched all the sets.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: I wasn't there. A couple of my friends are actually there.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: I was slightly too young for that, but I have
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: a couple of friends who are a couple of years
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: old than me, and they actually went to Woodstock ninety nine.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: Crazy shit. But I've gone and I've watched. I think
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: I've watched every single set. You can find like the
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: full videos of every set from Woodstock ninety nine online
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: and it was insane. I mean, if you guys have
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: seen the train Wreck documentary, which those train Wreck documentaries
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: are really pretty fascinating as well. They're a bunch of
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: of them on Netflix now, and I think the first
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: one was the Woodstock one. What happened to that thing
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: was crazy? Dude. Clinton was fifty nine and night well
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: he performed. He was one of the biggest problems that
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: would Stock ninety nine, right fred Durst. When limb Biscuit played,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: fred Durst was like inciting the crowd. He was like
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: telling the crowd to go nuts and like destroy shit.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: And during limb Biscuit, like I think the crowd tipped
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: over like one of the towers where like one of
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: the camera people was It's insane, dude. I think fred
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: Durst was like, I don't know, he was encouraging violence
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: though Rick Derringer, Yeah, real American, I don't. I don't
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: even I don't know the song well at all though,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. Man, We'll see, but I'm gonna
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: try to prioritize requests or on the Patreon now, of
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: which there are none right now, though I've already done
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: break stuff. But I did Cave Flay's cover of break Stuff.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: I did that on ukulele. It's a slow jam version
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: of break Stuff. I did cover that one. It's somewhere else.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: I think you can still find it on YouTube if
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: you search for it. It's it's a weird rendition of it,
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: but I think it works anyway. Yeah, but yeah, Woodstock
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: ninety nine Crazy and Red Out Chili Peppers were the
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: last band on That was when the whole thing burned down,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: right at the end of everybody like lit fires and shit,
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: the whole place was burning down. Read Out Chili Peppers
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: were like naked on stage, just their dicks flopping around.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: You want, you can watch it on YouTube and they
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: don't even censor it because it's art. Man, if you
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: want to go see Fleas Dick, you can watch that.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: But that's not why they call him flee. You can
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: go watch that that video there. They did put on
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: a ridiculous set. Though I read Out Chili Peppers they
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: sounded really good. They were crazy in the nineties. Man.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: A lot of hard like funk metal stuff out of
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: the Red Out Chili Peppers back in the day, and
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: I believe it was it was for Shanty still at
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: that point too, right, because that was ninety nine, right,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: so that was still him there at that time, or
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: he was back, I should say at that point after
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: his first the first time he left the band, he
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: was back at that point. Anyway, we were talking about
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: music rock history now man. But also when the place
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: started burning down because everybody was going crazy due because
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: like people couldn't use the like outhouses anymore. Everybody was
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: on drugs. Yeah, people just started getting like trampled. It
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: was way too hot, Like the prices were so insane
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: that people that just weren't even buying water. Everybody was dehydrated,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: getting heat stroke, his fleas scrummed in the umptuous. It's
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: like a solid. I don't know. I'd have to go
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: back and review it again. I'd say it's at least
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: a solid. It's a solid delicious at least, I would say. Anyway. Yeah,
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: but yeah, go check that on Red Chili Peppers. By
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: the way, shit started burning down, they left the stage
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: and then they came back and they covered Jimmy Hendrix's
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: fire just because they saw the fire out there there,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: not the Ohio players fire. The disco song or whatever
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: is that disco or funk. I don't even know there's
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: a fine line there at some point, but whatever, I
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: gotta get out of here. Man, I'm gonna I gotta
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: get this up on the audio stuff, even though the
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: audio is getting no listens. So please tell everybody get
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: me some audio listens. Man, let's go, let's build this
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: shit up. Have a good Friday, everybody, have a good
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: start to the weekend. Peace,