Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 426 - 1/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to episode 426 of the all systems go sports betting
- 0:20podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
- 0:30What's going on, everyone? Happy Tuesday.
- 0:32NFL postseason week rolls on. Still early in the week, guys,
- 0:36but we are now just four days away from the first postseason
- 0:40action. So that's the Rams in Carolina,
- 0:42430 coming up here late afternoon on Saturday.
- 0:45So I did want to remind you all that I am running a very fun
- 0:50Applebaum NFL playoff Survivor contest.
- 0:53It's officially called with Splash Sports.
- 0:55So you may have joined in in the NFL Survivor for the season long
- 0:59contest that I did. I'm now doing another one with
- 1:01Splash Sports. So you have 4 days to sign up if
- 1:05you'd like to join. And this one is it's short and
- 1:07sweet because it's just about the postseason.
- 1:09So you know, if you were knocked off in Survivor early for the
- 1:13season long, guess what? Here's your shot for at
- 1:15redemption here. But you do have up until 4:30
- 1:18when when when the kick off goes for Rams and Carolina.
- 1:22Again, the contest closes, but I'd love for you guys to join.
- 1:25It's 25 bucks to to throw your hat in the ring.
- 1:28You can have up to 7 entries. You could win up to $5625.00.
- 1:33So if you would like to join #1 thank you to those of you who
- 1:36have already jumped in here, feel free to spread the link
- 1:39around to your friends, family members, whoever.
- 1:42The more the merrier you're here.
- 1:43The more people join, the bigger the pot.
- 1:45So that's what we're all looking forward to.
- 1:46And who knows, maybe my guy Manny Davidson will make it 2
- 1:49for two because Manny won the the Survivor contest for the
- 1:52season long contest. But for those of you who do want
- 1:56to join, very simple. All you got to do is go to my
- 1:58Twitter page at Josh under score insights.
- 2:01At the very top, there's a pinned tweet and it'll be that
- 2:04link for the Survivor contest. You can jump right in and
- 2:07hopefully we get a winner here. Someone makes a makes a nice 5K
- 2:10to kick off their 2026. So just a reminder, I'm going to
- 2:12pump this pretty hard. You might get a direct message
- 2:14me from me on Twitter, but I want everyone to throw their hat
- 2:18in the ring if they feel so inclined.
- 2:20With that being said, did talk about 3 early postseason plays
- 2:24yesterday and spent a lot of yesterday's pod talking about
- 2:27NFL dog system matches. Well guess what guys, we got 3
- 2:31down. I'm going to give you 3 more
- 2:32today. So I'm now now have a full best
- 2:35bet card for me and I'm going to give you some of these very
- 2:38interesting rhythm edges and sharp mush edges from our
- 2:41friends at Juice Rail because some of these angles make you
- 2:45feel pretty excited. We'll get to that here in a
- 2:47second. But I do have three more post
- 2:49season plays for you guys for Wild Card weekend.
- 2:51So 3 down and three to go. Also, we got some sweats for
- 2:55today. Going to continue to focus on
- 2:57college basketball. There are 29 games overall.
- 3:00I landed on a dog in a very heavily back game with a sharp
- 3:03line move in their favor and then 2 short favorites here that
- 3:05hopefully with these sharp line moves can come through for us.
- 3:08So as always, a three pack. Let's try to go 2IN1, eek out a
- 3:11winning day. Now looking back toward
- 3:13yesterday, guys a little bit frustrating. 1 and 2 -. 1.17
- 3:17units had a great hit with Arkansas Pine Bluff.
- 3:20Two really bad teams, but we saw Pine Bluff go from as high as
- 3:23like plus three down to basically a pick em or even hop
- 3:26the fence as a short favorite. They came through 90 to 79, but
- 3:30then really annoying was 1. Ohio State not coming through
- 3:34because I will make that play 100 times out of 100.
- 3:36Unranked home fave sharp line move public Nebraska, but line
- 3:40went to Ohio State -1 up to -2 1/2.
- 3:44They end up losing by three. So really just it was pretty
- 3:46much a nip and tuck game. They're late in the fourth
- 3:49quarter. And then Nebraska, they made a
- 3:50few plays to have to sink us there.
- 3:53So the public got the last lap with Nebraska.
- 3:55But that's that's a pretty sharp situational play.
- 3:58Just didn't come through for us last night.
- 4:00So Buckeyes, you're dead to me. Annoying, but then also Cornell.
- 4:05Cornell lost by 5, one O 4 to 99.
- 4:07Should have taken the over there.
- 4:09But you did you guys see even though we lost the Cornell play,
- 4:11did you see what that closing line was?
- 4:13Cornell at the time I want to say they were -2 1/2.
- 4:18They end up closing -3 1/2. Some books even -4 got Cornell
- 4:22on the money line -134 they closed it like -190 so boy did
- 4:28we do our part targeting Cornell there.
- 4:30But again, they came up short and lost by 5 S Again, that's
- 4:34the difference between a one and two losing night or A2 in one
- 4:36winning night. But either way, guys, we're
- 4:38going to get right back at it today.
- 4:40See if we can post a winning day, which is always the goal.
- 4:43So with that being said, let's run through some of these
- 4:48college basketball games for today and then going to give you
- 4:50a few more plays here for Wild Card weekend because very
- 4:53interesting the way some of these these lines are shaking
- 4:56out. Well, First off, I want to focus
- 4:58on the most heavily bet game of the night, Iowa and Minnesota.
- 5:02This one is very interesting. It is an 8:00 game.
- 5:04I think it's on FS1, but it is the most one of the most heavily
- 5:08back games. Then I guess Georgia and Florida
- 5:11is right above them in Duke, Louisville, but this is an 8:00
- 5:14game. Those first two games are 7:00.
- 5:15So this might end up being the most heavily back game of the
- 5:18night or at least one of them. And it's a pretty clear
- 5:21situation. I'll play for us.
- 5:22So let's set the stage here. Iowa, the Hawkeyes having a good
- 5:26year coming in 12 and 2, ranked 19th in the country.
- 5:29They've won four straight, just beat UCLA 74 to 61.
- 5:33They covered as a 6 1/2 point home favorite.
- 5:35You know, Minnesota nine and five unranked, but they have 1/4
- 5:38in a row. Just outlasted Northwestern 84
- 5:41to 78 one outright as a 4 1/2 point Rd. dog so.
- 5:45What are we sitting across the market here?
- 5:47Well. This game open Iowa listed as a
- 5:496 1/2 point Rd. favorite and the public says this line is too
- 5:52short. Iowa is ranked, they have a
- 5:54great record. Minnesota is unranked so easily
- 5:58I was going to win by 7 or more. However, even though 76% of
- 6:02spread bets at DK are laying the chalk with Iowa, Iowa isn't up
- 6:06-6 1/2 to -7 1/2 - 8. Nope, the lines gone the other
- 6:10way. So Publix hammering Iowa, but
- 6:12Iowa has fallen -6 1/2 down to -5 1/2 and I'm even seeing a
- 6:17couple books creep down to 5. So it's very clear here we have
- 6:20a just a classic RLM play reverse line movement.
- 6:23You hear me talk about it a lot. But for anyone who's new reverse
- 6:26line movement is when the betting line goes away from the
- 6:29popular side and toward the unpopular side.
- 6:31So think of it this way, Everybody and their mothers
- 6:33pounding the Hawkeyes, but yet the lines dropping and it's now
- 6:36a better number and easier number for Iowa odds makers.
- 6:40You know that that's kind of a public trap where not a trap
- 6:43game. Public also thinks book set
- 6:46traps know that's just based upon the way the public
- 6:49perceives a line. So if public loved -6 and half
- 6:52Iowa, boy do they love -5 and half or five.
- 6:54But think about it the other way.
- 6:55Why are you getting a better number on Iowa?
- 6:58Because big money seems to be pouring in on the Gophers here
- 7:01now. I jumped on Minnesota plus 6 1/2
- 7:04at -120 a little bit earlier today.
- 7:07Shameless plug to read my sharp reports at Josh under score
- 7:10Insights. Always tweet them out for
- 7:12vsend.com. And then also, if you get those
- 7:14all systems go best bets from Juice Rail, you would have
- 7:16gotten that 6 1/2 earlier today. So unfortunately, the 6 1/2 no
- 7:20longer there, it's now 5 1/2. So that's your best price.
- 7:22But still some books are down to five.
- 7:24So you might still beat the closing line.
- 7:26But aside from that really sharp move, again, public Iowa line
- 7:29going to Minnesota, we just have a straight up contrarian play.
- 7:32Minnesota is only getting about 1/4 of tickets and won the most
- 7:36heavily backed games of the night.
- 7:38They're also getting more money, so only 24% of bets, but 43% of
- 7:42dollars coming in on Minnesota. We also get the Gophers as a
- 7:46classic buy low value play as an unranked home dog against the
- 7:50sell high ranked opponent. So we got the unranked versus
- 7:53ranked system match and conference dog system match.
- 7:56So they're both in the Big 10 and when we have two teams in
- 7:59the same conference facing off, typically that levels the
- 8:01playing field rivalry aspect. It's almost like that divisional
- 8:04dog in the NFL. And I got a little a little stat
- 8:07for you when two teams in the Big 10 face off in conference
- 8:11play this year. Remember, conference play is
- 8:12just starting now pretty much. But the home dog is 7 and five
- 8:16against the spread 58%. And since 2021, it's 98 and 72
- 8:21ATS 58% with a 10% ROI. So this situation where it's a
- 8:25conference game, you're a home dog.
- 8:27That's been a good spot to take the points.
- 8:30Minnesota doesn't hurt. They're 8 and O at home this
- 8:32year. Iowa, by the way, they're 12:00
- 8:34and 2:00, but they're 12 and O. They're they're 10 and O at
- 8:36home. I think there's two neutral site
- 8:38games, but they're O and two on the road.
- 8:40So again, one of the most heavily backed games.
- 8:42But public is all over Iowa, yet this line is dropping toward
- 8:45Minnesota. Doesn't hurt that we have a 36%
- 8:50sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Real, also on Minnesota
- 8:53and our friends at Rhythm. I have two models telling me to
- 8:56take Minnesota. One is plus 3.8, the other one
- 8:59is plus 3.7. So this is a classic blueprint
- 9:03play for me to take the points. I'm going Minnesota, I got them
- 9:06plus 6 1/2. Maybe you got a good 6 1/2, two
- 9:08or six. It looks like 5 1/2 is your best
- 9:11price right now. But for everyone to be happy,
- 9:13let's just win the damn game outright.
- 9:15What do you think? Let's go Golden Gophers next one
- 9:18for you. 10:00 Eastern Time let's look at Fresno State
- 9:22visiting San Jose State. So Fresno State comes in 6:00
- 9:26and 8:00 but they really struggled.
- 9:27They've dropped six in a row, just lost to Nevada. 6665 did
- 9:32cover though as a 4 1/2 point home dog.
- 9:34You know San Jose State 5 and 9, they've lost four in a row.
- 9:37They just lost to Utah State 96 to 78 but they did cover as a 21
- 9:421/2 point Rd. dog so. What do you see across the
- 9:45market here? Will this game open?
- 9:46Fresno listed as a one point Rd. favorite And the Sharps pretty
- 9:51clearly have pounced on San Jose State because we've seen this
- 9:54line flip dog to fave in favor of the Spartans.
- 9:58So San Jose State went from plus one now to -1 1/2 at home.
- 10:02So again, dog to fave line move. Always notable to me because
- 10:06that's when you pretty much have clear evidence of pros taking a
- 10:09position, maybe disagreeing on who should have been favored at
- 10:12the outset. And it takes a lot of respected
- 10:14money to flip A-Team from a dog to a favorite.
- 10:16That's what we are seeing here with San Jose State.
- 10:19Now you'll get DK 61% of spread bets, but 93% of spread dollars
- 10:25on San Jose State. So again, slight public support,
- 10:28but heavy, heavy, big smart money.
- 10:30Over 90% on San Jose State from DK.
- 10:33Now I'm a money line short favorite guy.
- 10:35You might know that about me by now.
- 10:36So this is a money line play for me.
- 10:38I got San Jose State pretty decent -115 earlier today.
- 10:43Looks like your best price is now -118 at DK, but some books
- 10:47as high as -120 even -125 S certainly try to shop around.
- 10:51Get that lowest juice price. DK is showing 65% of bets but
- 10:5586% of money line dollars on San Jose State.
- 10:59And then a little system match here.
- 11:01When we have two teams in the Mountain West playing each other
- 11:03in conference play. The home favorite is 9 and one
- 11:07straight up this year that is a 90% cash.
- 11:12And those home favorites in conference play in the Mountain
- 11:15West are 320 and 8180% straight up with a 3% ROI since 2019.
- 11:20So in these spots, Mountain West, the home favorites
- 11:23typically win these games. That's what I'm hoping for with
- 11:26the San Jose State Spartans. San Jose State does have the
- 11:29better offensive efficiency, 136th in the country versus 220.
- 11:33First, better offensive rebound percentage, 80th versus 200.
- 11:37And third, better three-point shooting, ranking 106th versus
- 11:40200 and 51st and could be important in a close game shoot
- 11:44the the free throws 6860 eighth in the country versus 118th.
- 11:49Oh, by the way, San Jose State four and three at home.
- 11:52You know, at least you're above 500.
- 11:54Fresno O and two on the road. Lastly, we did notice a 50%
- 11:59sharp mush edge on the San Jose State money line.
- 12:02So I'm going money line with the Spartans dog to fave San Jose
- 12:06State again -115 around now -120 last bite of the night.
- 12:10It's going to be a late one for me because I'm an east coaster.
- 12:13Nevada, San Diego State 11 O clock Eastern Time.
- 12:17This should be a fun one. I think this is maybe FS1 as
- 12:20well. But anyway, San Jose State or
- 12:22sorry San Diego State I should say comes in nine and four.
- 12:26They have 1/3 in a row. Just beat Boise 110 to one O 7
- 12:29and triple overtime. I didn't even notice that game
- 12:32without that was a epic, epic game there.
- 12:35Didn't cover though they were favored by 4 1/2 at home.
- 12:38On the other hand, Nevada 11 and three.
- 12:40They've won seven in a row and just mentioned a second ago they
- 12:42beat Fresno 6665. Didn't cover though the -4 1/2
- 12:46on the road. So.
- 12:48What is sitting across the market?
- 12:49Here will this game open Nevada, a very short 1 1/2 point home
- 12:52favorite. And it's not a massive line
- 12:54move, but what I noticed is liability on Nevada because
- 12:58Nevada went from -1 1/2 at -110 to -1 1/2 at -115 or -120 And
- 13:05then I saw Circa earlier today go to -2.
- 13:08Now since that time, a few other books have gone to -2 but
- 13:11anytime like if you like a team and you're getting a better
- 13:14price currently and then Circa is showing you no further
- 13:18movement or liability on that team.
- 13:19That's always notable to me. And you know, it's a bit of a
- 13:22joke, but I remember the hot dog eating contest.
- 13:24I forget the exact number, but like every book was like, I
- 13:28forget what it was. I don't know, 61 1/2, but they
- 13:30were like, you know, 60 or 60 point 60 1/2.
- 13:35So that told me that you want to lean toward the Circa side if
- 13:38you have an edge, if that makes any sense.
- 13:39So the fact that everyone was 1 1/2 but Circa went to two told
- 13:44me liability at Circa, who has a lot of sharp betters bet there
- 13:48in favor of Nevada. So I was just a little indicator
- 13:50to me. But if you look at the splits at
- 13:52DK, 66% bets 69% dollars, at Circa 77% bets, 79% dollars.
- 14:00So both are showing pretty good one way Pro and Joe split in
- 14:03favor of the home chalk with that line move.
- 14:05Now this is once again a money line play for me.
- 14:08I got Nevada -122 I think that was at Caesars or Bally bet.
- 14:13But now you're looking at around -125 or even -130.
- 14:16But if you like, if you look at the splits here, they look
- 14:18pretty good. Money line at DraftKings, 65% of
- 14:22money line bets, 95% of money line dollars going with Nevada
- 14:26to win this game. Now, same system match that we
- 14:29just had on San Jose State is lighting up on Nevada.
- 14:32Two teams in the Mountain West play each other in conference
- 14:34play. That home favorite nine and one
- 14:36straight up this year, 80% straight up since 2019.
- 14:40Nevada also takes better care of the ball.
- 14:41One of the big differences I noticed when I'm comparing the
- 14:44analytics, Nevada ranks 5th best in the country at not turning it
- 14:48over. So the lowest turnover
- 14:49percentage, San Diego State ranks 200 and 57th.
- 14:52They turn it over quite a bit. We do have the pack 7 and one at
- 14:56home this year, so it's not a massive like you know -2 up to
- 15:00-5 line move, but it's always shown liability on the Nevada
- 15:04side. 1 1/2, two stop now getting up to 2.
- 15:08So with that really good system match and good bet splits, I'm
- 15:12playing the Wolfpack here. Hopefully win this game again.
- 15:15You can now get him around -120 ish.
- 15:17So Minnesota plus 6 1/2, now 5 1/2.
- 15:20San Jose State and Nevada both money lines.
- 15:22Let's try to get 2 out of three and eek out a winning day.
- 15:27Now, I wanted to update you on the NFL playoffs because we
- 15:30spent a lot of yesterday's pod talking about the system matches
- 15:34and it's kind of crazy on Twitter.
- 15:35People seem to love these like they've gotten a ton of of
- 15:38engagement. But there are three plays we
- 15:42already made. So yesterday jumped on Carolina
- 15:44plus 10 1/2. Again, some books are down to
- 15:4710, so it looks like hopefully that's the best number.
- 15:49Also jumped on the 49ers plus 4 1/2.
- 15:53That's pretty much 4 1/2 everywhere, so you should be
- 15:55able to get that. And then did take Pittsburgh
- 15:57plus 3 1/2. Might want to jump on that
- 16:00sooner rather than later because it's really juiced up for the
- 16:02Pittsburgh side and some books are getting down to three.
- 16:05But that left three games remaining.
- 16:07So I'm going to tell you the place here for the last three
- 16:10games. So I am adding the Chargers,
- 16:13Chargers plus 3 1/2. Now I, I mentioned this
- 16:16yesterday that I was holding out for a four, But what I noticed
- 16:20between yesterday and today is it's unlikely to get to 4.
- 16:24Like it, you know, things should change.
- 16:25It might tick back up. But the juice yesterday was
- 16:28toward the Patriots like -3 1/2 -, 115, like it was going back
- 16:31to four. I'm looking at it today, guys.
- 16:33It's evening out. It's basically -110 both sides.
- 16:36So the juice is no longer on New England like it's going to 4.
- 16:40So therefore I may not want to hold out for the four like and
- 16:43at this point, I'd hate to go to bed and wake up and it's down to
- 16:463. So I took Chargers plus 3 1/2.
- 16:49Now I am a Patriots fan. Perfect result for me would be
- 16:52Patriots win by three and we can cash our Chargers ticket.
- 16:55But here's a couple things I like about the Chargers. 1 is
- 16:58that a lot of books opened at 4:00 and they went down to 3
- 17:011/2. So the line did move toward the
- 17:02Chargers, even though the public is hammering New England right
- 17:05now. New England is getting nearly
- 17:0670% of spread bets. Oh, by the way, this is an 8:00
- 17:10prime time game. So if it's a prime time game,
- 17:13everyone and their mother is on New England automatically.
- 17:16As a contrarian, I want to be on the Charger side.
- 17:18So Chargers are super contrarian.
- 17:20Only 30% of spread bets. They're a prime time dog.
- 17:24They have fallen 4 down to 3 1/2.
- 17:27We get into our system matches. Playoff dogs are 61% against the
- 17:30spread since 2017. Wild card dogs are 64% against
- 17:34the spread since 2017. But here's the big one.
- 17:37The the stat that I swear to you is is real.
- 17:40Cuz I looked it up cuz it looked like it was just so lopsided,
- 17:43something's wrong. But no, it's legit.
- 17:45A wild card dog playing an opponent who missed the playoffs
- 17:49the previous year. Since 2017, that system is 16
- 17:52and one against the spread 94%. So we have a great system on the
- 17:58Chargers right now it's 3 1/2, but I have another system.
- 18:02We'll get to that in a second. Short dogs getting 3 or less,
- 18:05that's also been great. But aside from that, good
- 18:08system, aside from a super contrarian play, I noticed a 9%
- 18:12sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Reel also on the
- 18:14Chargers, and I was able to find a reduced juice Fanatics plus 3
- 18:201/2 at -1 O 5 S most most books are plus 3 1/2 - 110.
- 18:25I found Fanatics plus 3 1/2 -, 1 O 5.
- 18:28So I jumped on it circa also only 30% bets, but nearly 50% of
- 18:32the money on on the charges. So it's funny, I told my dad
- 18:36about this game and he's like, what are you?
- 18:38Are you crazy? The Patriots are going to kill
- 18:40him. Everything I'm hearing on talk
- 18:41radio in New England, Patriots are going to kill him.
- 18:44I don't know maybe they will. But this this is usually the
- 18:47play where if everyone in the and their mother and the drunk
- 18:50guy at the BA is saying one thing, I want to go the other
- 18:52way. So I'm a Pats fan, but I got to
- 18:54take the Chargers here plus 3 1/2, especially with that really
- 18:58good 16 and one ATS system. So I'm on Chargers plus 3 1/2.
- 19:04Next one for you. This one's been back and forth,
- 19:06but I'm thinking we might be might be getting the best number
- 19:09by taking the Bears. DA Bears, Ditka's bears plus 1
- 19:131/2. Now the bears are plus 1 1/2 -,
- 19:17120 at Caesar's. I took that, but some books are
- 19:21down to 1 and a couple books are down to a pick.
- 19:24So, and who knows, this might flip back toward bears -1
- 19:26because this thing is has been all over the place.
- 19:29At one point bears were laying a point.
- 19:32You know, we're seeing Green Bay -1 1/2.
- 19:34Some books are at a pick. So it's been very back and
- 19:37forth. So I'm part of my play to take
- 19:39the bears is I think the plus 1 1/2 on the home dog bears.
- 19:43I don't think you're going to get A2.
- 19:44If anything, that 1 1/2 might leave us rather quickly and and
- 19:48get down to a pick or, or become a dog to fave kind of thing.
- 19:51So I did jump on the 1 1/2. Now it could change if it's a
- 19:54pick or they become a favorite, but as of now you would be a
- 19:57wild card dog. 64% against the spread.
- 20:00Short playoff dogs getting 3 or less.
- 20:03That is 26 and 10 against the spread. 72% since 2017.
- 20:07Wild card dog who missed the playoffs the previous year, 70%.
- 20:11Thirty, 6% ATS since 2017. That's all lighting up on the
- 20:15bears. Oh by the way, the Bears are a
- 20:17divisional dog. Bears have a 6% sharp mush edge
- 20:21and at rhythm. Get a load of this.
- 20:23Rhythm has bears -0.5 -, 0.4 and -1.1.
- 20:31So again, you tell me like Green Bay, you know, I'll respect you,
- 20:35but I'm thinking this is the best number that we're going to
- 20:38find on the bears. And I have a sharp mush edge.
- 20:41Divisional dog. Rhythm says they should be
- 20:42favored. If Rhythm has the the Bears
- 20:44favored and we can get a 1 1/2, to me it's a value play.
- 20:48So I am going to go with the Bears.
- 20:49I put them in earlier today plus 1 1/2 at -120 and then the last
- 20:55game here, the Jags. This one goes out to my buddy
- 20:58Emerson Lotzio, who's a great dude and I worked with him at
- 21:01DraftKings. He's the funniest guy I know and
- 21:04he's a huge Jags fan. So let's do it for Emerson.
- 21:06Give me Jags plus 1 1/2. That's my play here, guys.
- 21:10We've pretty much played. Stayed pretty steady at bills -1
- 21:151/2, but some books are down to 1 and I'm seeing one book that
- 21:18might get down to pick them. So the Bills and the Jags and
- 21:21the Packers and the Bears, it's very similar where like that
- 21:25road favorite is like very slightly favored, but it's kind
- 21:28of come back and forth. So once again, best price.
- 21:31I got Jags plus 1 1/2 -, 110 at Bet MGM.
- 21:35Very important because other books are -120 - 125 and some
- 21:40books are down to 1. So part of these bets guys, it's
- 21:42getting the best of the price. Like if we can get CLV will be
- 21:45in a good position also with dogs barking.
- 21:48So let's see circa 60% bets 74% dollars on the Jags.
- 21:54Jags of a 15% sharp mush edge. Rhythm has Jags plus 0.5 and
- 21:59then -1.7 and -1.3. So once again we can get a 1 1/2
- 22:04when Rhythm says it should be favored.
- 22:05And you would match quite a few systems here.
- 22:08Wild card dog miss playoffs previous year, 70% ATS wild card
- 22:13dog, playoff dog short playoff dog three or less, 72%.
- 22:17So these are all lighting up on the Jags.
- 22:20So we'll see. Again, part of the part of the
- 22:22the game here is I want to be on these dogs.
- 22:24So they've done very well. And the second thing is, OK, if
- 22:27we're going to be on dogs, let's try to get the best of the
- 22:29number. So if we can get a + 1 1/2 today
- 22:32and then maybe it's a pick or they become a favorite by
- 22:34Saturday or Sunday, that'll be worth it to me.
- 22:37So Long story short, I'm on all six dogs and knock on wood, if
- 22:43if history can repeat itself, you've basically seen on wild
- 22:46card weekend dogs go pretty much four and two against the spread.
- 22:51So I would hate to like only take three dogs and go 1 and 2
- 22:54when the other dogs went, you know, three and three and O or
- 22:57something like that. So I said to myself, you know
- 23:00what? If I have a rhythm edge, I got a
- 23:02sharp mush edge and I can get the best of the number, that's
- 23:05good enough for me. So let's see if all these dogs,
- 23:08or at least four out of six of these dogs can bark.
- 23:11So Chargers 3 1/2 and then Bears and Jags 1 1/2, Carolina 10 1/2,
- 23:16San Fran 4 1/2 and Pittsburgh plus 3 1/2.
- 23:19Let's go. So that about does it for
- 23:22episode 426 of the ASG All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 23:26podcast, powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
- 23:28where we wrap things up. And I always start first by
- 23:31saying thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
- 23:33you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding in the
- 23:35arena with me every single day through the UPS and the downs
- 23:38because that's life and that's sports betting.
- 23:40But if you do enjoy the pod, you value the insights.
- 23:43Hopefully you, you know, you feel like you're getting some
- 23:45good information to help you make smart bets.
- 23:47If that's the case and you want to let me know you appreciate
- 23:50the pod, please do something very easy, simple.
- 23:52It's free and it'll take 2 seconds.
- 23:54Just give the pod a five star review.
- 23:56Click the five stars on Spotify or iTunes to help us to continue
- 24:00to grow the pod. If you want to click the follow
- 24:02button, leave a comment under the review section or recommend
- 24:04the pod to a friend or retweet the pod when I tweet it out,
- 24:08that'll be awesome. Next, if you enjoy the style of
- 24:11sports betting, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting,
- 24:13focusing on the numbers, what the numbers are saying, not what
- 24:16our opinion, our gut, our bias is telling us.
- 24:19Focusing on split system matches, taking a contrarian
- 24:22approach, line movement. If that's the case and you want
- 24:25to learn more about data-driven betting or you have someone in
- 24:28your life who could use some data-driven tips or you just
- 24:31want to support the team, I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com
- 24:34and type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or the
- 24:38Everything Guide to Sports Betting. 2 books that I've
- 24:40written. Very proud of both.
- 24:41If you want to grab one or both of them, you'd make my day.
- 24:44And then you bring them to Sports book.
- 24:45I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and
- 24:48we'll sweat some of these college hoops games together.
- 24:51Next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
- 24:53Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
- 24:55apps. They help me win.
- 24:56They're going to help you win. Rhythm for their AI backed
- 24:58models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 25:01Juice Reel for so many great different features.
- 25:04First off, if you want to support the pod, this pod is
- 25:07free. It cost you nothing to listen
- 25:09tip your podcast host throw me a bone.
- 25:11For $4.99 a week you can go to juice Reel and get the all
- 25:15systems go best bet picks and you would have gotten hopeful.
- 25:18Hopefully doesn't matter because hopefully they you know, lose by
- 25:215 or less or win the game. But you would have gotten
- 25:23Minnesota plus 6 1/2 by signing up to get those ASG best bets
- 25:27from Juice Reel. As soon as I plan, they go right
- 25:29to the app because I'm synced up.
- 25:31But you're also going to get the robo Jackson best bet picks, the
- 25:34sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the
- 25:36best line futures all available when you download Juice reel.
- 25:40So download rhythm and download Juice reel give a five star
- 25:42review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
- 25:46page? If you don't have one, you need
- 25:48one. The live odds page is the Bible
- 25:50for data-driven sports bettors because you got to be able to
- 25:52track the market. What's the what are the line
- 25:55open at? Where is it now?
- 25:56How does it move? Pull up the line history, find
- 25:58the best price you know, find that 1 1/2 you know with bears
- 26:02or Jags when other books are at one or a pick them could be the
- 26:05difference between a win or a loss.
- 26:06So there's a lot of live odds pages out there, but Odds Logic
- 26:09is the best. You should give Odds Logic a
- 26:11shot with a 7 day free trial if you want to keep it 50% off your
- 26:15first month by going to this special link Odds logic.com/josh
- 26:21123. Lastly, Novig.
- 26:24Have you guys given a shot to Novig yet?
- 26:26It's a sports betting exchange, not a sports book.
- 26:28I would love for you guys to try it out because you're going to
- 26:31get way better juice prices. So instead of laying -115 - 120,
- 26:34you're going to get -110 minus one O 5 + 1 O2.
- 26:38Why? Because it's an exchange and not
- 26:40a sports book, so you don't have the house forcing you to pay
- 26:43that big juice. Instead, you're getting better
- 26:45prices, which means you can win at the same rate you would at DK
- 26:47or FanDuel or Bet MGM or whatever, but make more money
- 26:50because you're risking less juice.
- 26:52So download the Novig app and when you fund your account, put
- 26:55in the promo code Josh 123. It'll tack on an extra 25 bucks
- 26:59for you. And then of course, I mentioned
- 27:01the show to start off the show about the Splash Survivor
- 27:04contest. I'd love for you guys to join
- 27:06again, go to my Twitter page at Josh under score insights.
- 27:09Right there at the top will be the link to to to join in.
- 27:13It'll also be a link in the description of the pod.
- 27:15But 25 bucks could win you over 5 grand, so come on down and
- 27:20save your Super Bowl champ for the final week.
- 27:22So that about thousand guys. Another pod here in the books.
- 27:25As always, two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
- 27:27Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
- 27:30of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut,
- 27:34the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM
- 27:36Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border
- 27:39of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
- 27:41Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
- 27:44down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest
- 27:46juice possible is found at the South Point.
- 27:48Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
- 27:51swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
- 27:53Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
- 27:56Show me an Arkansas Pine Bluff ticket.
- 27:58But man, Cornell and freaking Buckeyes, I can't believe they
- 28:01didn't come through for us last night.
- 28:03But either way, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
- 28:05We'll sweat some games here together tonight.
- 28:07So as always, coming off a one and two or a two and one and O
- 28:10and three or three and OA. Good night, a bad night, a hot
- 28:13streak, a cold streak, grinding. Just got to stick with it.
- 28:16Guys. Never get too high and confident
- 28:18and cocky when things are going well.
- 28:20Don't get depressed and sad and annoyed and frustrated when
- 28:23things are are are not going your way.
- 28:25We just got to stay even keeled, play the system matches,
- 28:28discipline with our bankroll management, flat batting.
- 28:30We can do that. Find the games that fit our
- 28:32model against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
- 28:35bat, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
- 28:38If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
- 28:41So I have a great Tuesday night, everybody, and then we'll be
- 28:44right back at it tomorrow. That'll be episode 427 on a big
- 28:48hump day, a big Wednesday edition of the All Systems Go
- 28:51sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 28:54Good luck everybody and have a great Tuesday night.