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Missile & drone war is intensifying but Kyiv's air defense is stalling · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: Russian authorities say Ukrainian drones killed five people overnight, including
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  Speaker 1: a child. In Ukraine, authorities reported two people killed and
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  Speaker 1: dozens injured in Russian missile attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenski
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  Speaker 1: is warning that Moscow is preparing a new mass mobilization.
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  Speaker 2: Forty year old i Or Nazarenko and his wife were
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  Speaker 2: at home in Ukraine's Kharkiv when a Russian strike tore
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  Speaker 2: through their building.
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  Speaker 1: I was sleeping right there on the sixth floor, where
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  Speaker 1: there's no balcony, near the white window that's blown.
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  Speaker 2: Out, with my wife. We were lucky. The attack destroyed
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  Speaker 2: four floors of the building above them. Rescuers pulling residents
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  Speaker 2: from the rubble. In Odessa, a barrage of Russian missiles
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  Speaker 2: hit this historic apartment building, injuring several more people. Ukraine's
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  Speaker 2: supply of interceptors has been running short, make it harder
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  Speaker 2: to stop Russia's increasing attacks across the border. Russian authorities
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  Speaker 2: and the city of Belgarode say Ukrainian drones killed several
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  Speaker 2: people here, including a child. The attacks came hours after
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  Speaker 2: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski's first official visit to Serbia, seen
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  Speaker 2: as a diplomatic win for Kiev. Although Serbia's President Alexander
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  Speaker 2: Vutcych keeps close ties with Moscow, he expressed support for
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine's territorial integrity. While in Belgrade, Zelenski warned that Russias
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  Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin was looking for ways to bring more Russians
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  Speaker 2: into the war.
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  Speaker 3: He is thinking about how to deceive his own people,
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  Speaker 3: that is, to carry out a mass mobilization without actually
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  Speaker 3: announcing it, to draw up some sort of secret contracts
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  Speaker 3: to seal off the borders. We can see this happening.
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  Speaker 3: We're already seeing plenty of these moves. Of course, the
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  Speaker 3: more people they mobilize, the greater the losses will be
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  Speaker 3: the bilshe.
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  Speaker 2: Zelenski also said Ukraine's new ballistic missile could be ready
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  Speaker 2: for deployment later this year.
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  Speaker 1: All right, let's get more from Marina Miran. She's a
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  Speaker 1: military expert with Kin's College, London. Hello, Marina, always lovely
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  Speaker 1: to talk to you. We are seeing more deadly drone
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  Speaker 1: and miss out strikes deep inside Ukraine and Russia. What
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  Speaker 1: does this escalation tell us about the current strategy of
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  Speaker 1: both sides?
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  Speaker 4: Good afternoon, Well, we have to understand that This has
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  Speaker 4: been going on, perhaps at a more adduced scale, since
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  Speaker 4: October twenty two, when General Serges Sorviken took charge on
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  Speaker 4: the Russian side of the troops in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 5: And this is nothing new in terms of.
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  Speaker 4: Operational approaches, because this leads back to a concept that
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  Speaker 4: existed during the Soviet times, meaning deep operations, and the
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  Speaker 4: idea was with somewhat different execution, but broadly speaking, is
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  Speaker 4: to see.
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  Speaker 5: An adversary as a system.
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  Speaker 4: So it wasn't that you had to fight the troops
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  Speaker 4: on the line of contact, but you also had to
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  Speaker 4: destroy the adversary's capability of sustaining the troops, meaning ammunition factories,
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  Speaker 4: logistical hubs since on and so force and so this
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  Speaker 4: is what we have been seeing throughout the years, with
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  Speaker 4: a new intensification and strikes since May of this year,
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  Speaker 4: and on the Ukrainian side we're seeing the same. But
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  Speaker 4: Ukraine didn't have the capability from the very beginning to
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  Speaker 4: strike deep into Russian territory. And what Ukrainian is doing
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  Speaker 4: is trying to find alternatives to the lack of the
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  Speaker 4: lacks of ballistic missiles by using drones, and some of
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  Speaker 4: those drones are even being launched from Russian territory.
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  Speaker 5: So both sides are essential following.
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  Speaker 4: This deep operations doctrine to a certain extent in order
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  Speaker 4: to accumulate the effect and get some sort of a breakthrough.
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  Speaker 1: Right now, Ukraine says it is running critically low on
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  Speaker 1: air defense interceptors. How vulnerable does that leave cities like
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  Speaker 1: Harkeev and Odessa to Russian attacks?
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  Speaker 4: In general terms, they are vulnerable, but for different reasons,
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  Speaker 4: and they also have a different strategic meaning. For Harky
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  Speaker 4: if we have to look at the geography, what Harkiv has.
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  Speaker 4: Harkiv is logistical node and it's located close to Russia's borders.
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  Speaker 5: So for the Russians they don't.
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  Speaker 4: Need to use the same means to attack Hurky and
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  Speaker 4: so perhaps medium range area defense is so a different
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  Speaker 4: kind of air defense system.
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  Speaker 5: Could be helpful there.
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  Speaker 4: And of course we also know that a few patriots
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  Speaker 4: wouldn't hurt, but systems such as IRIS t Now, as
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  Speaker 4: far as Odessa is concerned, the DESA is located on
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  Speaker 4: the Black Sea and it has an extensive port infrastructure,
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  Speaker 4: and so for the Russians it is strategic from the
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  Speaker 4: point of view of leaving Ukraine landlocked. Without any access
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  Speaker 4: to the Black Sea, because the Russians are saying Ukraine
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  Speaker 4: is getting its ammunition supplied uh through through the through
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  Speaker 4: the water, and Thereforedessa has become a strategic focal point
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  Speaker 4: for now.
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  Speaker 1: Right, Here's what many do not understand. Why are Ukraine's
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  Speaker 1: allies not giving them what they need to defend and
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  Speaker 1: protect themselves.
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  Speaker 5: We have to separate in the the allies.
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  Speaker 4: So one one specific ally would be the United States,
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  Speaker 4: which has promised Ukraine the technology so essentially a license
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  Speaker 4: to manufacturer Patriot packs remissiles. And the other allies are
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  Speaker 4: European allies who are operating Patriot systems who might have
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  Speaker 4: interceptors of their own.
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  Speaker 5: So those two are very different. And now, because of.
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  Speaker 4: The war and the Middle East and the fact that
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  Speaker 4: the Gulf countries are also operating Patriot systems, there is
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  Speaker 4: a shortage of Patriot interceptors, and of course there is
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  Speaker 4: a problem in terms of transferring sensitive technology. So the
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  Speaker 4: US cannot just the president cannot just say you can't
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  Speaker 4: manufacture patriots. It has to be coordinated with Lockin Martin
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  Speaker 4: and was buoying. Therefore, Ukraine is short because some countries
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  Speaker 4: don't have enough to give Ukraine and other countries would
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  Speaker 4: give them for security reasons.
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  Speaker 1: Right At the same time, Zelenski says Rain is developing
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  Speaker 1: its own ballistic missile. How long can that take and
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  Speaker 1: how could it change things on the battlefield.
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  Speaker 4: Well, the first announcement about Ukraine developing a ballistic missile
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  Speaker 4: KIM in January twenty twenty five from Voldemir Zelenski. So
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  Speaker 4: far we have not seen anything in terms of any
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  Speaker 4: designs or there is no information that being said. What
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  Speaker 4: is useful to do is to assess Ukraine's capabilities of
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  Speaker 4: developing a ballistic missile. And Ukraine has the engineering know
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  Speaker 4: how also from the Soviet times, because some of the
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  Speaker 4: missiles were developed in Ukraine. So from the engineering side,
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  Speaker 4: Ukraine could in theory be developing a ballistic missile. Now,
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  Speaker 4: the problem is the contemporary ballistic missiles have complex electron
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  Speaker 4: and that is something that Ukraine would most likely get
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  Speaker 4: from its Western partners. So overall there is a capability,
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  Speaker 4: and indeed there is also a possibility that Ukraine might
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  Speaker 4: soon have its first ballistic missile. The question is what
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  Speaker 4: is the range of the missile, what is the payload
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  Speaker 4: of the missile, and most importantly, is not just developing
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  Speaker 4: the ballistic missile, but also the capability of producing it
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  Speaker 4: at scale, and that will be determining for its impact.
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  Speaker 4: Of course, it is going to give Ukraine more firepower.
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  Speaker 4: So in theory, if Ukraine could manufacture, say one hundred
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  Speaker 4: ballistic missiles a month, that would make a difference on
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  Speaker 4: the battlefield because Ukraine could then combine ballistic missiles with
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  Speaker 4: drones in order to strike targets in Russia. But that
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  Speaker 4: is just the hypothetical because to reach that number of missiles,
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  Speaker 4: Ukraine would have to have secure production facilities and all
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  Speaker 4: the components, and that is problematic given the fact that
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  Speaker 4: Ukraine needs also other things like artillery shells, ear defenses
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  Speaker 4: and so on. So how do you allocate resources. So
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  Speaker 4: in theory, yes, if enough number is produced, it could
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  Speaker 4: have an impact on the battlefield, which will be positive
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  Speaker 4: for Ukraine. But there are still a lot of question marks.
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  Speaker 1: Right right now. President Zelensky also says Russia is preparing
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  Speaker 1: a new mass mobilization. We've not had anything official from
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  Speaker 1: the Moscow side, but how credible is that assessment? You think?
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  Speaker 4: We have to be very careful when we're looking at
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  Speaker 4: official statements. From both sides, because often they're used for
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  Speaker 4: informational purposes, and given the fact that there will be
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  Speaker 4: elections to the state do mind Russi in September. Of course,
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  Speaker 4: the Russian society is also questioning whether as there will
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  Speaker 4: be a mass mobilization. We have to look at different
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  Speaker 4: indicators to assess the possibility of such a mobilization, and
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  Speaker 4: one of them some Western sources have already published the
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  Speaker 4: fact that Russia is recruiting administrative stuff to process new
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  Speaker 4: military recruits, and that could be interpreted as a preparation
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  Speaker 4: for mobilization, but that could be also something else, so
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  Speaker 4: we have to be very careful.
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  Speaker 5: Again.
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  Speaker 4: There is also another indicator, for instance, a change of
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  Speaker 4: laws regarding the reservists in Russia. They now can be
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  Speaker 4: summoned and sent to the front lines. Is it a
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  Speaker 4: way to avoid a mass mobilization or is it a
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  Speaker 4: preparation for something very difficult to say.
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  Speaker 5: So in terms of.
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  Speaker 4: The accuracy of Zelensky's statement, it cannot be verified at all,
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  Speaker 4: because yes, there are some indicators, but they can be
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  Speaker 4: interpreted differently. And of course we have to remember that
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  Speaker 4: President Zelenski also talked about the possible presence or deployment
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  Speaker 4: rather of North Korean troops of about thirty than he
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  Speaker 4: said fifty thousand, meaning that maybe that could replace part
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  Speaker 4: of the need for a mobilization. So we have to
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  Speaker 4: watch closely what is happening. But unless there is an
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  Speaker 4: official presidential decree, and I assume that the Russian side
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  Speaker 4: will not want to get people worried, then we cannot
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  Speaker 4: say Russia is indeed preparing a mobilization. And of course
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  Speaker 4: it could also be the repetition of September twenty two,
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  Speaker 4: where there was a partialization, which is not as politically
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  Speaker 4: damaging as a full mobilization.
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  Speaker 1: Right, So, based on all that's happening now, what do
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  Speaker 1: you expect to happen on the battlefield in the coming
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  Speaker 1: weeks or months.
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  Speaker 4: It is difficult to predict what is going to happen
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  Speaker 4: on the battlefield, given the fact that there are so
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  Speaker 4: many unknowns. Right now we're seeing Russian long range strikes
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  Speaker 4: or intensification thereof.
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  Speaker 5: It will depend on Ukraine's capability.
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  Speaker 4: To defend this critical infrastructure, because if Russia manages to
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  Speaker 4: achieve any significant strategic effect, that would weaken Ukraine's position
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  Speaker 4: on the battlefield in terms of sustainment of its troops
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  Speaker 4: and of course of defenses. Therefore, it is important to
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  Speaker 4: factors that in. It is also important to factor in
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  Speaker 4: Ukrainian strikes and whether they will have any cumulate effect.
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  Speaker 4: Using drivings such as the strikes that we have seen
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  Speaker 4: on the on Russian logistics the road of Novorosia, as
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  Speaker 4: well as fuel depots which have triggered a fuel crisis
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  Speaker 4: specifically in Crimea it's now being slowly dealt with. That
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  Speaker 4: can also have an impact on the battlefield. So those
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  Speaker 4: the external factors can of course influence what is happening
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  Speaker 4: directly on the front lines.
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  Speaker 5: Other than that, there.
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  Speaker 4: Are reports that the Russian forces are coming closer to
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  Speaker 4: Slovanskan Chromaturs. What their next actions will be, it depends
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  Speaker 4: they might want to launch an offensive somewhere else in
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  Speaker 4: order to distract the Ukrainian troops. Of course the Ukrainian
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  Speaker 4: command is taking that into account. But possibly we will
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  Speaker 4: see grinding Temple in the coming weeks without any significant
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  Speaker 4: breakthrough on easier side and possibly horratory measures before the
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  Speaker 4: weather changes in autumn and before there will be an
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  Speaker 4: operational pause and preparation for winter operations.
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  Speaker 1: Right and indeed, winter is coming. Marina Miron, military expert,
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  Speaker 1: King's College, London. Thank you