Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4150 The GOP Just FLIPPED Their FIRST SEAT Before the MIDTERMS!!!'

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Ep. 4150 The GOP Just FLIPPED Their FIRST SEAT Before the MIDTERMS!!!' · Turley Talks

0:00
[UNKNOWN]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
0:06
[UNKNOWN]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
0:18
[UNKNOWN]: This is Turley Talks.
0:21
[UNKNOWN]: We've got some breaking news here.
0:23
[UNKNOWN]: We haven't even gotten to a single election day ballot count yet.
0:28
[UNKNOWN]: And the Republican Party has already flipped the first seat of the entire 2026 midterm cycle.
0:33
[UNKNOWN]: This is going to absolutely blow you away.
0:36
[UNKNOWN]: A state Supreme Court in a state Democrats of control for a generation.
0:41
[UNKNOWN]: Just handed the GOP a free seat.
0:43
[UNKNOWN]: And it happened because the Democrat Party couldn't even follow its own election laws.
0:47
[UNKNOWN]: It's just too good.
0:48
[UNKNOWN]: It all comes on the heels of a bombshell Harvard Harris poll showing the Democrats losing the midterms.
0:55
[UNKNOWN]: We've got the latest on the insane rolling from the Missouri Supreme Court that just upended their redistricting map for now.
1:04
[UNKNOWN]: And why even the legacy media is beginning to realize that it looks increasingly like the Democrats are about to blow the midterms.
1:13
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1:15
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1:16
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[UNKNOWN]: That's it because we're starting on Tuesday.
2:45
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2:48
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2:50
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2:54
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3:17
[UNKNOWN]: Can't wait to see you guys there and you get a cool t-shirt to boot.
3:21
[UNKNOWN]: Alright, let's dive right in here.
3:23
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, so it really just happened.
3:26
[UNKNOWN]: The GOP just picked up
3:28
[UNKNOWN]: It's first seed of the midterms.
3:30
[UNKNOWN]: Thanks to colossal Democrat incompetence, colliding head on with the rule of law.
3:37
[UNKNOWN]: So here's what happened.
3:38
[UNKNOWN]: This is a state representative seat.
3:41
[UNKNOWN]: But I think it is a harbinger of what's to come for Congress as a whole.
3:47
[UNKNOWN]: So in New Mexico's House of Representatives, the Democrat running in their district four race,
3:54
[UNKNOWN]: Well, was a first term Democrat represented by the name of Joseph Hernandez.
3:59
[UNKNOWN]: He had to withdraw from the race back on August 25th.
4:04
[UNKNOWN]: That's about 70 days out from the midterms.
4:07
[UNKNOWN]: After there were reports surfacing about an alleged alcohol related incident in Chicago, hotel during a legislative congress.
4:14
[UNKNOWN]: I'm not kidding in the details there, but the problem here is that New Mexico law,
4:20
[UNKNOWN]: says that a political party can only fill a vacancy created by a withdrawal if that vacancy happens at least 90 days before the general election.
4:31
[UNKNOWN]: So this withdrawal happened 70 days before the air.
4:36
[UNKNOWN]: So that's after the 90 day cut up.
4:39
[UNKNOWN]: Now the Democrats didn't care.
4:41
[UNKNOWN]: like they never care.
4:42
[UNKNOWN]: They don't care about the law, the rule of law.
4:44
[UNKNOWN]: They only care about power.
4:46
[UNKNOWN]: So they put another Democrat in his place, even though the deadline to fill the vacancy had already passed.
4:51
[UNKNOWN]: So New Mexico Republicans to their credit took it to court.
4:56
[UNKNOWN]: And the courts said that because Hernandez pulled out too late, the Democrat party never actually had the legal authority to replace him.
5:06
[UNKNOWN]: And then it went to the new Mexico Supreme Court and in a 41 decision as of yesterday, they upheld that exact reasoning.
5:15
[UNKNOWN]: And even their Democrat to her credit, even their Democrat Secretary of State sided with the county clerks on this.
5:21
[UNKNOWN]: She actually asked the Supreme Court to settle the dispute before the September 4th ballot certification deadline.
5:29
[UNKNOWN]: So this isn't some partisan, you know, Republican judge cooking up a technicality.
5:32
[UNKNOWN]: This is New Mexico's own top Democrat election official, a green that's state law simply does not allow what our own party tried to do.
5:36
[UNKNOWN]: So bottom line, the district for Republican is running on a post.
5:37
[UNKNOWN]: Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
5:48
[UNKNOWN]: And it's just effectively picked up the first seat of the 2026 midterms.
5:53
[UNKNOWN]: It's a seat that has been Democrat held and because of the Democrats screw up, thinking they were above the law, they just got themselves barred from the ballot so that this Republican or name is Heather Ellison.
6:06
[UNKNOWN]: She's a Navajo educator with 35 years serving children and families in that community.
6:14
[UNKNOWN]: on the ballot.
6:15
[UNKNOWN]: So Republicans have effectively flipped a Democrat healthy in the New Mexico state house.
6:22
[UNKNOWN]: This is a chamber.
6:23
[UNKNOWN]: The Democrats have run for years and Republicans just picked off a seat before election day due to sheer Democrat mismanagement of their own candidate recruitment.
6:35
[UNKNOWN]: It's a small story with a very big
6:39
[UNKNOWN]: signal because it shows a Democrat party in disarray at exactly the moment it needs its bench to be strongest heading into the midterms in the beginning of September.
6:50
[UNKNOWN]: Now, the reason why I think that this could indeed be a harbinger of what's to come for Congress in November.
6:59
[UNKNOWN]: is that this seat pickup comes on the heels of that massive midterm bombshell that just dropped the other day.
7:08
[UNKNOWN]: And that's coming from Harvard Harris, one of the single most accurate polling outlets out there in their latest generic ballot poll, which has likely voters which party they plan to vote for in the midterms.
7:21
[UNKNOWN]: Republicans for the first time in over a year are now
7:29
[UNKNOWN]: Republicans up by two at the very start of September.
7:33
[UNKNOWN]: right right where you want to be ahead this is this is where the race really begins particularly after labor day and the starting gun hit and Republicans are ahead and remember this is exactly the point in the calendar when Republican voters historically start tuning back in to politics after a little summer you know reprieve as a Republican families take their summer vacations and check back into politics
8:00
[UNKNOWN]: come Labor Day.
8:01
[UNKNOWN]: Where is the polling all summer?
8:04
[UNKNOWN]: Trends tends to artificially skew towards Democrats.
8:09
[UNKNOWN]: That's the so-called summer response bias.
8:11
[UNKNOWN]: For context back in March, Harvard Harris had Democrats up by four points among likely voters by July that Democrat lead had shrunk to two
8:24
[UNKNOWN]: And now in this late August survey, this is August 28th to 30th, it's flipped to the Republicans plus two.
8:33
[UNKNOWN]: This is a full six point swing in the Republicans direction in just five months.
8:40
[UNKNOWN]: And it's the very first time any pollsters shown Republicans ahead among likely voters, by the way,
8:49
[UNKNOWN]: Now, if you want a sense of who we're dealing with here in terms of Harvard Harris, terms of their polling track record, here's Harvard Harris's numbers going into the 2018 midterm.
9:03
[UNKNOWN]: So the Harris you're seeing there on the left, that's not Kamala, okay?
9:06
[UNKNOWN]: That's Harvard
9:12
[UNKNOWN]: going in from especially from August 822-823 Democrats plus 8 then their next one a month later in September 2627 Democrats plus 9 a few days later Democrats plus 8 then their october their final october 1 Democrats plus 9.
9:36
[UNKNOWN]: So Harvard Harris going into the 2018 midterms from late August all the way into November, they pulled the generic ballot at Democrats at plus eight or nine.
9:48
[UNKNOWN]: As it turns out, the Democrats won the midterms by a margin of drum roll plus eight.
9:56
[UNKNOWN]: Harvard Harris was dead on as they normally are for midterms, they're a very good, very accurate polling outlet.
10:03
[UNKNOWN]: Uh, by contrast, if you want to see the nonsense, that's out there in the polling.
10:10
[UNKNOWN]: This is what we got from Reuters Ipsauce just weeks before November, 2024.
10:15
[UNKNOWN]: This was in September.
10:17
[UNKNOWN]: They were actually telling us that Kamala Harris was going to win by seven points.
10:23
[UNKNOWN]: Again, these are the same polling outlets that are telling us at Trump is down in the
10:33
[UNKNOWN]: who've been proven wrong time and time again, whereas Harvard Harris has proven their bona fides time and time again.
10:40
[UNKNOWN]: They are a legit polling outlet and they're showing the Republicans right now with an unprecedented lead going into the midterms.
10:49
[UNKNOWN]: Now here's another fun fact for you.
10:51
[UNKNOWN]: So this is from Quantiss Insights, again, and not one of the most accurate pollsters of 2024.
10:58
[UNKNOWN]: They have some stats here.
11:00
[UNKNOWN]: The RCP generic ballot right now is D plus 5.7 Democrat plus 5.
11:06
[UNKNOWN]: So that's the real clear politics aggregated average of all the polls out there, the good, the bad and the ugly.
11:14
[UNKNOWN]: And the Democrats right now, even with all the ugly for us, that is, the propaganda polls, even with all of that,
11:25
[UNKNOWN]: What Quantus notes here is that if you look back at the last six elections, Republicans beat the final average in five of the past six elections.
11:38
[UNKNOWN]: And this is because poles are always always, always skewed to the left.
11:44
[UNKNOWN]: The polling industry is a left-wing industry.
11:47
[UNKNOWN]: It's an industry dominated by liberals and polling analyst Patrick Rafini recently looked at over 3300 poles across the last four election cycles and found that poles on average overestimate Democrats by four points.
12:05
[UNKNOWN]: And during the summer months, specifically, that error rate jumps up to nearly six points.
12:10
[UNKNOWN]: So remember, it's called the summer response bias, legacy media knows it.
12:14
[UNKNOWN]: The legacy media knows there is a summer response bias in favor of the Democrats, but they don't tell you because it's all propaganda, but regardless, if we apply those historical errors,
12:27
[UNKNOWN]: in just the past midterms, what that means is that the Democrats plus 5.7 actually drops into a Democrat plus 4.9.
12:38
[UNKNOWN]: If you just average out how the Republicans overperform midterm numbers, right?
12:45
[UNKNOWN]: That's just using the average Republican overperformance midterms.
12:49
[UNKNOWN]: It drops
12:56
[UNKNOWN]: and D plus 2.9 using presidential years.
13:00
[UNKNOWN]: So the Democrats still lead but far more narrowly if the historical polling bias persists this year and according to Harvard Harris, it most certainly is persisting.
13:14
[UNKNOWN]: Harvard Harris actually has, by contrast to all these other polls, Republicans in the lead by two.
13:21
[UNKNOWN]: It's an R plus two right now.
13:22
[UNKNOWN]: Now again, I don't want you to lose sight of how unprecedented this is.
13:26
[UNKNOWN]: We have to remember that the party in the White House and I'm always going to qualify this because we have to make sure right it's the stockdale principle.
13:36
[UNKNOWN]: You want to take a very sober,
13:39
[UNKNOWN]: assessment of the dire nature you're in and at the same time never lose hope that you are going to prevail it's the Aragorn principle right when they were defending the keep Uh, with the writers of roll hunt.
13:54
[UNKNOWN]: It's like you never lose hope.
13:55
[UNKNOWN]: I know all the odds are stacked against us, but we never lose hope that's how we went.
14:02
[UNKNOWN]: So we always have to remember, in terms of the dire element of this, is that the party in power, that's the party that's in the White House, almost always loses seat seats in the midterms.
14:16
[UNKNOWN]: It happened in the Republicans in a big way back in 2018.
14:19
[UNKNOWN]: It happened to Reagan in 2026, right?
14:23
[UNKNOWN]: Historically, there have only been three exceptions to that rule.
14:28
[UNKNOWN]: Over the past 100 years, it's a 1934, 1998, 2002.
14:33
[UNKNOWN]: There's the only times the party in power actually gained seats.
14:37
[UNKNOWN]: So Democrats going into the cycle should by the historical pattern alone, be sitting comfortably ahead by six, seven, eight,
14:46
[UNKNOWN]: nine points and instead they're either up by three or four or they're actually behind as per this Harvard Harris polling.
14:58
[UNKNOWN]: So that's nothing sort of a stunning reversal, the normal midterm dynamic.
15:04
[UNKNOWN]: Again, we're already seeing this in the seat projections.
15:07
[UNKNOWN]: Cook political report has the
15:14
[UNKNOWN]: then democrats two hundred nine seats to democrats two hundred five with twenty one toss ups republicans also have a huge money advantage over the democrats they have about a half a billion dollars more money to spend all put all together including a lot now is coming in and dump in a few hundred million in the races that's important because one study found that the congressional candidate this is not presidential
15:44
[UNKNOWN]: the congressional candidate that has the most money wins 90% of the time.
15:51
[UNKNOWN]: So if you just target all that money, literally over a billion dollars right now, and the GOP war chess would particularly with Trump's MAGA ink, you pump all that money in the 910 11 of the most winnable 21 toss-ups.
16:07
[UNKNOWN]: We got this.
16:08
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, there's no way right against
16:11
[UNKNOWN]: It's, it's, it's very interesting because you've got the statistic of the candidate, the congressional candidate spends the most amount of money wins 90% of the time, but the party in power loses seats 90% of the time.
16:25
[UNKNOWN]: So you, so there is a tension there that we're going to have to see how it gets worked out.
16:30
[UNKNOWN]: But given that redistricting now has made most seats a lot,
16:36
[UNKNOWN]: and is really just as given us the lowest amount of toss-up seats ever, I don't know if that past is precedent anymore.
16:44
[UNKNOWN]: Now, in terms of the party and power losing seats, all of that said, we have got to talk about what just happened in freaking misery.
16:57
[UNKNOWN]: I'm to before I even get into what I'm sure you guys have heard what happened if not I'll let you in on it and don't worry I think we got this I'm going to show you exactly why but that said especially in light of what it Indiana.
17:12
[UNKNOWN]: just did and screwing us over with voting against their map, the Indiana Senate Republicans, seven of the eight, of course, have been voted out of their own state legislatures, sins.
17:29
[UNKNOWN]: But I will never understand Midwest Republicans.
17:33
[UNKNOWN]: I'm sorry, I will never understand you guys.
17:36
[UNKNOWN]: I love you.
17:37
[UNKNOWN]: I think you know some of the nicest people I've ever met in my life, but we're just going to have to call them Midwest, the land of beef and rhinos.
17:45
[UNKNOWN]: It's the land of cows and rhinos.
17:47
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, if ever there were a, if ever there were a party.
17:53
[UNKNOWN]: addicted to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
17:57
[UNKNOWN]: It is mid-western Republicans.
18:00
[UNKNOWN]: If you haven't heard the Missouri Supreme Court, unanimously, I wanna underscore that.
18:06
[UNKNOWN]: I wanna underline that.
18:08
[UNKNOWN]: unanimously blocked the state's GOP drawn congressional map from being used in the November midterms, even though the primaries have already been held.
18:22
[UNKNOWN]: They already have candidates.
18:24
[UNKNOWN]: They already have primaries.
18:25
[UNKNOWN]: They already have the mail-in ballots ready to go.
18:27
[UNKNOWN]: The map is a done deal.
18:30
[UNKNOWN]: It's a goal.
18:32
[UNKNOWN]: The state legislature, which has the sole plenary authority over elections in district drawing overwhelmingly approved it months ago.
18:39
[UNKNOWN]: I thought it was last year, a fire poll in 2025.
18:42
[UNKNOWN]: It's a seven to one GOP redistricted map designed to add a MAGA friendly seat and dismantle the ridiculous Kansas City gerrymandered Democrat seat.
18:53
[UNKNOWN]: That's a kept a Democrat in there for years.
18:55
[UNKNOWN]: That's gone.
18:57
[UNKNOWN]: it passed the Missouri House 90 to 65.
19:00
[UNKNOWN]: It was signed by the governor.
19:02
[UNKNOWN]: Again, I think it was last year of article certainly months ago.
19:06
[UNKNOWN]: And literally just weeks before the midterm after the primaries, the Missouri Supreme Court has the arrogance to think it could just step in and say,
19:25
[UNKNOWN]: And keep in mind, I know it's going to upset you.
19:29
[UNKNOWN]: And it should keep in mind, this is a Republican dominated state Supreme Court.
19:37
[UNKNOWN]: No, they don't have, they're not partisan themselves, but they've been appointed by Republican.
19:47
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, well, this Republican dominated state, Missouri.
19:54
[UNKNOWN]: This Republican-dominated state Supreme Court just voted unanimously to toss that map into the trash.
20:05
[UNKNOWN]: So basically what happened, if you don't know the background to this, is that a far left group called People Not Politicians, they should just call themselves what they are, you know, commis without a conscience or something like that.
20:18
[UNKNOWN]: They're not people without politicians.
20:21
[UNKNOWN]: They're left wing lunatics.
20:24
[UNKNOWN]: They gathered more than 300,000 signatures to force a statewide vote on the Trump back map, even although it had already been signed into law.
20:37
[UNKNOWN]: And the Missouri Secretary of State, Denny Hoskins, the court claims, wrongly rejected that citizen referendum campaign against the map.
20:47
[UNKNOWN]: And so the states have brought court said that the map can't go into effect until you
20:54
[UNKNOWN]: Now, I mean, make no mistake.
20:56
[UNKNOWN]: Of course, the referendum will pass, Missouri's a deep red state, but it'd be obviously too late for the midterm.
21:04
[UNKNOWN]: In fact, it would appear on the November 3rd ballot, even though the prime areas have already been held for the new map.
21:15
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, if ever there were an example of how these courts have just, in a sense, sort of outlived their purpose, it's this, I'm not saying we don't need courts obviously, but this is, this is really nothing more than a bunch of judicial narcissists who've completely lost perspective of reality, if anything, if anything.
21:36
[UNKNOWN]: They could have ruled, look, you have to have this referendum because we have the numbers.
21:41
[UNKNOWN]: But obviously, because already the campaigns underway, the primaries are done, it was signed into law.
21:52
[UNKNOWN]: You're going to have to wait till 2028 to vote on it.
21:54
[UNKNOWN]: That, I could say.
21:57
[UNKNOWN]: But this ruling is insane.
21:58
[UNKNOWN]: So yes, yes, it looks like the Supreme Court is going to have to once again get involved with one of these rogue state Supreme Court's Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway has already filed an emergency stay at the state Supreme Court.
22:15
[UNKNOWN]: That's what she has to do.
22:17
[UNKNOWN]: That's the required first step before rushing in appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
22:22
[UNKNOWN]: After, of course, Missouri's that same high court, Missouri's high court, tossed the congressional map.
22:31
[UNKNOWN]: Hanaway, along with pretty much every other Republican in Missouri state, legislators calling this ruling absolutely insane.
22:41
[UNKNOWN]: It's unprecedented.
22:42
[UNKNOWN]: No American court has ever thrown out a congressional
22:48
[UNKNOWN]: after it was signed into law and after primaries were already held under it.
22:53
[UNKNOWN]: Missouri's August primary used the new map and candidates already won their nominations, where we are in the very thick of the election right now.
23:03
[UNKNOWN]: And of course, she just she wanted to absolutely unprecedented decision that's plunged the state into a full-fledged constitutional crisis that threatens to
23:12
[UNKNOWN]: completely disenfranchised every Missouri voter by forcing a switch back to the old map for November.
23:18
[UNKNOWN]: So what we need new primaries now just weeks before the election.
23:22
[UNKNOWN]: What about the preview?
23:23
[UNKNOWN]: What about the people voted for this particular candidate or that particular?
23:27
[UNKNOWN]: What about those campaign?
23:28
[UNKNOWN]: So obviously Supreme Court's going to have to once again step in and fix the
23:38
[UNKNOWN]: Now, I think we've got this.
23:40
[UNKNOWN]: I think the Supreme Court is going to overturn this.
23:43
[UNKNOWN]: There is precedent for that.
23:45
[UNKNOWN]: It's known as the personal principle.
23:48
[UNKNOWN]: It's from personal versus Gonzalez.
23:51
[UNKNOWN]: It's from back in 2006.
23:52
[UNKNOWN]: And it's a very simple practical ruling.
23:57
[UNKNOWN]: It holds that courts can't change election rules.
24:00
[UNKNOWN]: too close to an election because it risk confusing voters, disenfranchising both voters and candidates who had already been campaigning and spending money for months prior to the ruling.
24:11
[UNKNOWN]: And then it would just disrupt the very administration and flow of the election.
24:17
[UNKNOWN]: Not to mention it's, you know, it protects against
24:22
[UNKNOWN]: It protects against the courts interfering in our elections, partisan lay.
24:28
[UNKNOWN]: Missouri already ran.
24:29
[UNKNOWN]: It's August primary under the 7 to 1 GOP map.
24:33
[UNKNOWN]: So switching back to the old 22 lines for November would create exactly the kind.
24:40
[UNKNOWN]: of last minute judicial disruption that personal ruled against voters, choose nominees under one map and changing it now would obviously disenfranchise or confuse them.
24:53
[UNKNOWN]: So this timing problem gives the U.S. Supreme Court strong legal grounds to step in and block the Missouri Supreme Court's ruling effectively reinstating the seven one map for the general election on
25:08
[UNKNOWN]: But that's sad.
25:09
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, these state Supreme courts are just, you know, forgive my rant, but they're just out of control.
25:16
[UNKNOWN]: I remind of me of the Colorado, that the fabulous pathetic Colorado state Supreme Coal was at a four to three rolling, where back in 2020, four, they had the gall to remove Trump's name from the ballot because they claimed he committed a crime that he didn't commit.
25:36
[UNKNOWN]: that no, no court had ever convicted him up, convicted him of, of insurrection.
25:41
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, it was a patently unconstitutional rule.
25:44
[UNKNOWN]: It was blatant judicial election interference.
25:49
[UNKNOWN]: Courts don't get to decide who gets on a ballot, a provided like the New Mexico, sort of provided the party of the candidates, all the deadline specified by law, by their own laws, ironically.
26:00
[UNKNOWN]: This is a Democrat law, in the case of
26:02
[UNKNOWN]: the new Mexico.
26:03
[UNKNOWN]: But I think this is all for not.
26:05
[UNKNOWN]: I think the Supreme Court is going to rule in favor of the new map.
26:08
[UNKNOWN]: I think they'll see through the shenanigans of this left-wing referendum and restore the new Missouri map for November.
26:17
[UNKNOWN]: And so then that raises the question, what are we seeing in terms of these competitive races?
26:22
[UNKNOWN]: We mentioned there's about 21 of them at least as far as
26:26
[UNKNOWN]: political report is concerned.
26:28
[UNKNOWN]: Are there any trends that suggests what the final outcome will indeed be in November?
26:36
[UNKNOWN]: That is exactly what we're about to find out.
26:38
[UNKNOWN]: But first gang, if you are just joining us, our super chats are up.
26:40
[UNKNOWN]: So feel free to send in your comments, your questions.
26:43
[UNKNOWN]: It'll be my honor.
26:45
[UNKNOWN]: My glory to answer them right here on this slide.
26:49
[UNKNOWN]: Sorry, I still have Aragorn resonating through my mind here.
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27:49
[UNKNOWN]: Here's the gap.
27:50
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28:04
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28:05
[UNKNOWN]: And people with no finance background, no tech background have learned to spot it and act on it and from a laptop, their kitchen table, act on it.
28:14
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28:17
[UNKNOWN]: This is what makes this glorious.
28:21
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28:26
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28:45
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28:53
[UNKNOWN]: And this is not a side hustle to pad the grocery budget.
28:56
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29:01
[UNKNOWN]: So,
29:02
[UNKNOWN]: I'm hosting a free training where my special guest is going to lay out the entire system.
29:08
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29:19
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29:21
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29:25
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29:25
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29:33
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29:36
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29:38
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29:42
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29:44
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29:48
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29:51
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29:54
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29:55
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29:57
[UNKNOWN]: Profits.
29:58
[UNKNOWN]: They are amazing.
29:59
[UNKNOWN]: All right.
30:00
[UNKNOWN]: Let's start with the Senate because that's far easier, far cleaner than the House.
30:06
[UNKNOWN]: And you know, whenever you get nervous,
30:13
[UNKNOWN]: I want you to remember what you're about to hear because we're gonna forget the polls and we're gonna think simply about math, okay?
30:24
[UNKNOWN]: Nice, objective, factual, numerators.
30:31
[UNKNOWN]: The Democrats need to net four seats to get control of the Senate.
30:38
[UNKNOWN]: Right now, the Democrats have 47 seats.
30:41
[UNKNOWN]: They would have to knock off four Republicans to get the majority at 51.
30:46
[UNKNOWN]: Even if it's at 50, 50, if they get three seats, we add the majority with Vice President J.D.
30:52
[UNKNOWN]: Vance, it's the tie-breaking vote.
30:55
[UNKNOWN]: Here's the fundamental math problem.
30:58
[UNKNOWN]: 20 of the 22 GOP seats.
31:01
[UNKNOWN]: 20 of the 22 GOP seats that are up are in states, Trump won by double digits.
31:11
[UNKNOWN]: Now, again, we can use a little past as precedent here.
31:14
[UNKNOWN]: Historically, it is virtually unheard of for a state to vote for a presidential candidate by double digits.
31:23
[UNKNOWN]: only to then turn around and vote for the other party in the Senate contest two years later, just simply doesn't happen.
31:32
[UNKNOWN]: You do have some ticket splitting, but that's only within single digit victories.
31:36
[UNKNOWN]: Like what we saw, for example, in Arizona, or what we saw in Michigan or Wisconsin.
31:42
[UNKNOWN]: You will see some split tickets,
31:45
[UNKNOWN]: in a particular election, but we have never seen or or I should say rarely and I'm talking even more rare than winning midterms when you're in power.
31:58
[UNKNOWN]: A state vote for their presidential candidate by double digits and then vote for the other party in the Senate two years later, pigs fly before that happens.
32:11
[UNKNOWN]: So what that means is that the Democrats really in the end only have two viable targets.
32:17
[UNKNOWN]: And they turn out to be Maine, where Susan Collins is an incredibly frustrating lay persistent Republican in a blue state.
32:28
[UNKNOWN]: And North Carolina, where the repulsive rhino Tom Tillis is mercifully retiring because he was about to get Liz Cheneyd in his own primary.
32:39
[UNKNOWN]: So he's a coward.
32:40
[UNKNOWN]: So he ran away.
32:42
[UNKNOWN]: He mtjd.
32:43
[UNKNOWN]: So forget all the nonsense you're hearing about, you know, telecrepo and Texas, forget it's not going to happen.
32:51
[UNKNOWN]: Forget all.
32:52
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, we learn the hard way.
32:55
[UNKNOWN]: Right, back in November of 2025, we learned the hard way in New Jersey and Virginia that voter registration advantages are an absolute bitch.
33:06
[UNKNOWN]: You can, you can, you can look at all the momentum we were getting with the mail in ballots, you know, with with the Republican candidate.
33:15
[UNKNOWN]: Well, primarily obviously in New Jersey, not so much Virginia, but you could look at all of that advantage that was going on and then all of a sudden.
33:26
[UNKNOWN]: Democrats by the mass came in and started voting on election day.
33:32
[UNKNOWN]: And that's just because there were more Democrats and Republicans in Jersey and Virginia.
33:37
[UNKNOWN]: There's just no way around that.
33:39
[UNKNOWN]: So voter registration is a bit.
33:43
[UNKNOWN]: Voter, that's why we're about to look at Seth Cashles analysis.
33:46
[UNKNOWN]: That's why he uses voter registration data as his basis for forecasting elections, not polls, because voter registration data is pure math.
33:58
[UNKNOWN]: If you could get out the vote and you don't need to get out the vote a lot.
34:03
[UNKNOWN]: If you have these double digit voter registration leads,
34:07
[UNKNOWN]: that all of Texas and Ohio and Alaska and Iowa have.
34:13
[UNKNOWN]: Alaska, even with their stupid corrupt ranked choice voting still, you just don't have to worry about it.
34:21
[UNKNOWN]: So, just forget it.
34:23
[UNKNOWN]: If past is precedent, Democrats aren't winning any of those seats.
34:27
[UNKNOWN]: The most the Democrats can hope for is two.
34:30
[UNKNOWN]: A pickup of two seats, main and
34:34
[UNKNOWN]: and North Carolina.
34:36
[UNKNOWN]: Meanwhile at the same time, they're finding themselves having to defend three of their own seats that they should have been safe, Georgia because of the incumbent scene, particularly Michigan because they haven't elected a Republican senator since 1994, since Spencer Abraham, and Coupsame with New Hampshire.
34:56
[UNKNOWN]: All three of those states now they're fighting for their lives.
34:58
[UNKNOWN]: They're going to require a lot of money.
35:00
[UNKNOWN]: They're going to require a lot of resources, just defend those seats that Republicans see is viable pickups, especially Michigan, New Hampshire.
35:08
[UNKNOWN]: And that's going to deplete the other races.
35:11
[UNKNOWN]: So at this point, I see North Carolina and Roy Cooper there as really the only viable pickup for the Democrats.
35:20
[UNKNOWN]: I just think Susan Collins is too strong of a candidate, too strong of an incumbent.
35:25
[UNKNOWN]: She brings back too much pork to Maine.
35:28
[UNKNOWN]: I don't think they're gonna wanna get rid of her for some left-wing creep.
35:32
[UNKNOWN]: And I see Microdgers and Microdgers and Michigan Sinunu in New Hampshire as having a real bonified chance.
35:41
[UNKNOWN]: of two pickups for Republicans, they may actually end up gaining therefore a seat in the Senate.
35:47
[UNKNOWN]: They lose one but pick up two.
35:50
[UNKNOWN]: Pretty impressive.
35:52
[UNKNOWN]: But in the Senate, as we stand, the Senate is gone for the Democrat.
35:56
[UNKNOWN]: Don't even give it a second thought.
35:58
[UNKNOWN]: Again, if anything changes, I'll let you know.
36:01
[UNKNOWN]: But like I said, pigs are going to have to be flying before.
36:04
[UNKNOWN]: And it's just, it's, it's not remotely in the math for them.
36:09
[UNKNOWN]: And Democrats themselves are admitting that.
36:13
[UNKNOWN]: Now, as far as the House is concerned, our good friend, election analyst Seth Cashell,
36:19
[UNKNOWN]: He has a very good breakdown of what he's looking at starting now in the beginning of September moving into November 3rd.
36:26
[UNKNOWN]: Remember, Seth is one of the best election forecasters out there's been on the show a number of times.
36:33
[UNKNOWN]: He, I'm very excited to see he's being touted a lot of late by Newt King Rich.
36:38
[UNKNOWN]: Newt found his work.
36:40
[UNKNOWN]: And he was very impressed with ses uncanny ability to accurately forecast elections based on voter registration trends, rather than on polls again, really based on math as opposed to just these incredibly moving dynamic, well, half the time propagandistic tools, you could subscribe to his sub stack at Captain K's corner, I'm successful.
37:03
[UNKNOWN]: subscriber.
37:03
[UNKNOWN]: I love it.
37:04
[UNKNOWN]: You get a lot of our, I know a lot of you guys out there are our subscribers.
37:10
[UNKNOWN]: Cess core framework for the midterms is very simple.
37:14
[UNKNOWN]: There are two races, okay?
37:16
[UNKNOWN]: Very simple.
37:18
[UNKNOWN]: Again, one of the things is when you start getting nervous,
37:22
[UNKNOWN]: with all the pulling out there, with all the Fox News crap that you're seeing gosh, talk about Fox News, Maria and all that.
37:29
[UNKNOWN]: I don't know what's going on with that organization, talk about a media outlet that continues to just shoot itself in the foot regardless, I'm gonna get another rant, but there are two types of races out there that Seth points out.
37:44
[UNKNOWN]: This again, these are your fixed points to keep you sane.
37:50
[UNKNOWN]: There are races that have already been decided.
37:52
[UNKNOWN]: There's no way around, okay?
37:54
[UNKNOWN]: Again, voter registration's a betch.
37:56
[UNKNOWN]: There's nothing you can do.
37:58
[UNKNOWN]: When Republicans outnumber Democrats to the one Democrat candidate ain't winning.
38:03
[UNKNOWN]: It's just that simple, especially the lot of money is being poured in that.
38:07
[UNKNOWN]: Um, vice versa.
38:09
[UNKNOWN]: If it's like in Baltimore, right?
38:11
[UNKNOWN]: I remember being in bold.
38:12
[UNKNOWN]: I remember my first time I voted in Baltimore 1996.
38:15
[UNKNOWN]: I voted for Papukannon in the Republican primary 1996.
38:22
[UNKNOWN]: I went to Enit Pratt Library.
38:25
[UNKNOWN]: And to go and vote, and they asked for my name, I, you know, this is back in 96.
38:32
[UNKNOWN]: And I just, I just remember they asked for my name, I give my name.
38:34
[UNKNOWN]: And she takes, she's got these big, the lady sitting at the table.
38:37
[UNKNOWN]: It's this big, huge, three-ring binder of pages of, look like a, you know, phone book page.
38:44
[UNKNOWN]: She's flipping through, she gets to the teas.
38:46
[UNKNOWN]: She says, I don't, I don't see your name.
38:49
[UNKNOWN]: And I said, no, I, I'm, I'm Steve Terling.
38:52
[UNKNOWN]: Okay, I'm I'm sorry.
38:53
[UNKNOWN]: There's there's no Charlie.
38:54
[UNKNOWN]: So I take out my card and my voter my voter ID and I showed her and I kid you not this lady went, oh, you were a public end.
39:05
[UNKNOWN]: So she reached over and she took out this little tin can this three by five tin can open it up and fit.
39:14
[UNKNOWN]: Fiddle through the three by five cards.
39:16
[UNKNOWN]: Is that oh, here you are.
39:18
[UNKNOWN]: And that's when I realize.
39:20
[UNKNOWN]: Wow.
39:21
[UNKNOWN]: Why am I even here, right?
39:23
[UNKNOWN]: I'd be voter registrations a bitch.
39:26
[UNKNOWN]: There's no way around it.
39:28
[UNKNOWN]: And so this makes sense.
39:30
[UNKNOWN]: This is why you just, you could throw out a lot of the polls when it comes to 90% of these races.
39:38
[UNKNOWN]: There are races that are already decided.
39:41
[UNKNOWN]: There are races that have Republicans with that big mass of three ring binder voter registration Democrats in that little tin can, right?
39:50
[UNKNOWN]: And there are races that are genuinely competitive and can be won by either side.
39:57
[UNKNOWN]: So that's what Cook has it about 21.
40:01
[UNKNOWN]: In the decided category, casual point to seats like Georgia's 11 district, that'll go Republican 100% certainty.
40:09
[UNKNOWN]: You don't have to worry about it.
40:11
[UNKNOWN]: Massachusetts Ford, fourth district.
40:13
[UNKNOWN]: That's going to go Democrat 100% certainly, no way around it, right?
40:18
[UNKNOWN]: Any Baltimore district, 100% Democrat, no way around it.
40:24
[UNKNOWN]: And he's been writing about these safe seats now for really most of the year.
40:28
[UNKNOWN]: There's no mystery there.
40:30
[UNKNOWN]: The competitive categories where the real analysis lives races like Arizona's first congressional district, Virginia's second congressional district, which Seth expects to come really down to a photo finish in the end.
40:44
[UNKNOWN]: Like I said earlier, there's really only about 21, 22.
40:48
[UNKNOWN]: Races are so that are true toss-ups right now, and for these races, Seth is saying that he's going to have much greater granular detail right down to which specific demographics and which regions of a district will swing the decisive vote.
41:08
[UNKNOWN]: He'll specifically, he references Pennsylvania
41:17
[UNKNOWN]: defensive Pennsylvania 10.
41:19
[UNKNOWN]: That's a perfect example of a race with that district level demographic modeling.
41:24
[UNKNOWN]: It's going to matter enormously.
41:26
[UNKNOWN]: And that Pennsylvania piece is actually critical for understanding the house majority fight overall, so he's going to find some races that appear to be barometers, right?
41:37
[UNKNOWN]: Just like I'm arguing this this new Mexico house,
41:41
[UNKNOWN]: a flip is a is a is a harbinger of what appears to be coming here.
41:46
[UNKNOWN]: The Democrats are in disarray and Republicans are ready to rock here.
41:51
[UNKNOWN]: Pennsylvania and this is the key and this is how we're going to flesh out what's happening over the next couple of months.
41:59
[UNKNOWN]: Pennsylvania starts sending out mail in ballots within the next two weeks.
42:02
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, by the way, fun fact.
42:03
[UNKNOWN]: Here's another harbinger you're ready.
42:05
[UNKNOWN]: The very first mail in ballot just got sent out.
42:09
[UNKNOWN]: The very first mail-in ballot for the mid-terms, just got sent out, I think as of yesterday, I forget when.
42:17
[UNKNOWN]: It's within the last 24, 48 hours, is it?
42:21
[UNKNOWN]: In the state of Florida, and it went to a Republican voter.
42:25
[UNKNOWN]: All right, so we're looking at Harbingers right now, right, or potential Harbingers.
42:31
[UNKNOWN]: So Pennsylvania starts sending out mail-in ballots within the next two weeks.
42:36
[UNKNOWN]: Unfortunately, Florida is in a harbinger.
42:38
[UNKNOWN]: Florida went solid red in 2018, even when the rest of the country went blue.
42:44
[UNKNOWN]: So unfortunately, we can't use that.
42:47
[UNKNOWN]: But we can use Pennsylvania as some kind of bell weather for the house as a whole.
42:55
[UNKNOWN]: Once those ballots go out, we're going to start getting real data on how three absolutely critical Republican health seats will break.
43:05
[UNKNOWN]: You might want to write these down because we're going to be talking about them for the next two months.
43:09
[UNKNOWN]: Pennsylvania 7, Pennsylvania 8, Pennsylvania 10.
43:14
[UNKNOWN]: Again, these are bellwethers, these are districts that are pretty evenly matched as it were in terms of registration or public and democrat and we're going to get a sense of where the electorate is going with Pennsylvania 7 8 and 10.
43:34
[UNKNOWN]: These are the three seats that Seth is calling critical.
43:40
[UNKNOWN]: for Republican defense of the house majority, meaning if the GOP can hold that trio and will know that based on the trends that we're seeing with the mail-in ballots, they're pat to keep in the house gets dramatically easier.
43:56
[UNKNOWN]: So what that means is that we're gonna know more over the next few weeks based on mail-in ballot return results targeting very specific districts, these swing districts.
44:08
[UNKNOWN]: And we'll know more than on how well the Republicans are doing overall, will treat those districts.
44:15
[UNKNOWN]: Again, it's an analysis point, but will treat those districts as Bellweathers, as Harbingers, for what's happening in the mid terms as a whole.
44:24
[UNKNOWN]: Seth also draws a really interesting lesson from 2024, and he explains that as that election season rolled on,
44:35
[UNKNOWN]: It became more and more obvious that President Trump was just going to absolutely crush it.
44:40
[UNKNOWN]: And it was largely because Trump's campaign successfully pushed early and mail in voting.
44:47
[UNKNOWN]: That's very important early and mail in voting is very important because.
44:52
[UNKNOWN]: It built Republican advantages in states like Arizona and North Carolina long before election day and it left Kamala Harris without the firewall that she needed in Pennsylvania.
45:04
[UNKNOWN]: We knew it.
45:05
[UNKNOWN]: We knew it ahead of time.
45:06
[UNKNOWN]: If you're on this channel and if not, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.
45:10
[UNKNOWN]: But if you were with us, you know, we said Trump's got Pennsylvania.
45:13
[UNKNOWN]: And if he's got Pennsylvania's got Michigan and Wisconsin, there's what Peckie doesn't even need Michigan and Wisconsin.
45:18
[UNKNOWN]: He's already got his 270.
45:20
[UNKNOWN]: But where Pennsylvania goes, Michigan, Wisconsin, tend to go.
45:24
[UNKNOWN]: And unfortunately, don't track their mail-in ballots by party.
45:31
[UNKNOWN]: Whereas Pennsylvania does.
45:32
[UNKNOWN]: So we have real strong data in Pennsylvania as our bell weather.
45:38
[UNKNOWN]: in terms of those three or four districts as our bell weather for the country as a whole.
45:42
[UNKNOWN]: So Seth is going to be applying the same data driven evolving as it were as the mail-in ballots come in approach to 2026 watching the mail-in ballot data as it rolls in state by state rather than locking in predictions too early based on polling that's been so ridiculously inaccurate of
46:05
[UNKNOWN]: That's how we're going to do it here on this channel.
46:08
[UNKNOWN]: We're going to go into this midterm countdown following CES analysis in particular and others.
46:14
[UNKNOWN]: You know, we we try to draw in the number of data analysts and see what we can find as the most.
46:21
[UNKNOWN]: Um, accurate picture of what to expect in 2026.
46:26
[UNKNOWN]: Again, I like a love South not only was the one of the most accurate forecasts in 2024 as New King Rich who won, who's himself a veteran of winning elections like in 1994.
46:40
[UNKNOWN]: Um, but he also, I just love his methodology because he doesn't rely on all this ridiculous up-and-down polling that shows telecrepo beating Ken Paxton, Ken Paxton is already one three landslide statewide races as Texas Attorney General.
46:55
[UNKNOWN]: He will easily win the U.S. Senate, and there is no universe where Michigan is competitive.
47:02
[UNKNOWN]: remissigan that hasn't voted for a Democrat are a Republican services 1994.
47:08
[UNKNOWN]: That's actually competitive.
47:10
[UNKNOWN]: Mike Rogers may win there, but the Republican is getting slaughtered in Texas.
47:14
[UNKNOWN]: There's no world where it can because Texas always votes to the right of Michigan.
47:19
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, this isn't hard.
47:20
[UNKNOWN]: Again, voter registration is a batch.
47:23
[UNKNOWN]: And voter voter registration doesn't appear in polls.
47:26
[UNKNOWN]: So we're going to keep our eyes very much fixed on the mail-in ballot data as it comes in.
47:31
[UNKNOWN]: We know where the GOP has to be in relation to Democrats with past elections as our standard measure.
47:37
[UNKNOWN]: And we'll have a very good sense, I believe, of how many of these toss-up seats will be winning.
47:43
[UNKNOWN]: going into November.
47:44
[UNKNOWN]: That's the best.
47:45
[UNKNOWN]: I think most accurate way of gauging precisely where we are in these midterms.
47:50
[UNKNOWN]: So make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button for daily updates on the state of plan.
47:54
[UNKNOWN]: These toss up seats and it'll be an honor and a privilege to fight and charge into November together.
48:02
[UNKNOWN]: All
48:02
[UNKNOWN]: All right, over to you, our super chats are still up to fire away with any questions or comments you have.
48:07
[UNKNOWN]: I'll be more than happy to answer them right here on this livestream.
48:12
[UNKNOWN]: Also, yeah, hey, happy September.
48:14
[UNKNOWN]: Summer is officially, I believe, behind us, right?
48:18
[UNKNOWN]: And before we charge in the fall, I want you to ask yourself, seriously, a very honest question.
48:24
[UNKNOWN]: What did the money sitting in your bank account actually earned the summer?
48:32
[UNKNOWN]: Man, you may not like it.
48:34
[UNKNOWN]: For most Americans, it's probably about 1%.
48:37
[UNKNOWN]: While groceries, gas, insurance, they all kept climbing, which means every month, your money sat still it quietly, lost ground.
48:46
[UNKNOWN]: Here's what your bank will never tell you.
48:49
[UNKNOWN]: There is an interest rate in America.
48:53
[UNKNOWN]: That's actually not set by your bank.
48:56
[UNKNOWN]: There's an interest rate in America that's actually not set by Wall Street.
49:02
[UNKNOWN]: It's set by state law.
49:06
[UNKNOWN]: It's written directly into state statute, secured by real American property and available to everyday Americans in counties all across the country.
49:18
[UNKNOWN]: It's called a tax lien.
49:20
[UNKNOWN]: And if you think this is some fringe idea, consider this.
49:23
[UNKNOWN]: The biggest banks in America, quietly buy up roughly 90% of these tax leans every single year with their own money.
49:34
[UNKNOWN]: And that should tell you everything you need to know.
49:37
[UNKNOWN]: Here is the part they can't hide.
49:39
[UNKNOWN]: You don't need to be a bank to do this.
49:42
[UNKNOWN]: You can get started with as little as 50 bucks.
49:44
[UNKNOWN]: So next Tuesday, September 8th, 8 p.m. Eastern 5 p.m. Pacific, my good friend Jay is hosting a free live masterclass, and he's going to buy a real tax lien live right in front of you on the call, start to finish nothing edited.
50:03
[UNKNOWN]: It's going to show you exactly how to do it, nothing hidden.
50:06
[UNKNOWN]: We're heading into the final stretch of the year.
50:08
[UNKNOWN]: The holidays are coming.
50:10
[UNKNOWN]: Prices aren't coming down.
50:12
[UNKNOWN]: And the folks with everything parked on Wall Street are bracing for whatever the market decides to do next.
50:17
[UNKNOWN]: No market timing, no tenants, no rehabs, no leverage.
50:22
[UNKNOWN]: Just a couple of spare hours a week.
50:24
[UNKNOWN]: That's it.
50:24
[UNKNOWN]: This happens once.
50:25
[UNKNOWN]: Live in real time Tuesday, September 8th.
50:28
[UNKNOWN]: There's no replay of what that live.
50:32
[UNKNOWN]: purchase when it's done it's done and I don't know when Jay is going to do this again.
50:36
[UNKNOWN]: So go to turlyclast.com again.
50:39
[UNKNOWN]: This is your year gang go to turlyclast.com to lock in your spot.
50:44
[UNKNOWN]: That's turlyclast.com to just text turly at 72,000 that's 72,00 or even these are just scan that really cool QR code on the screen.
50:55
[UNKNOWN]: Tap Sen and you're in.
50:56
[UNKNOWN]: Again, next Tuesday, September 8th, 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific Register now at TurleyClass.com.
51:04
[UNKNOWN]: Texturally to 72,000 or scan the QR code to same your spot.
51:09
[UNKNOWN]: All right, Josh, what do we got?
51:10
[UNKNOWN]: What do we got?
51:13
[UNKNOWN]: Johnny, the Wiz kid, big, big paragraph.
51:17
[UNKNOWN]: I have a Muslim friend and we have some tiffs, I would assume so of her various things.
51:23
[UNKNOWN]: I'm hoping you can clear up.
51:25
[UNKNOWN]: She believes we're bombing Iranian citizens instead of terrorists.
51:31
[UNKNOWN]: She believes threats are free speech because they didn't do anything.
51:36
[UNKNOWN]: Even Kamini, she believes they hate us because they even Kamini, she believes they
51:44
[UNKNOWN]: taking their oil.
51:46
[UNKNOWN]: She doesn't know Trump's deeper plan on how this is more than just oil.
51:49
[UNKNOWN]: The death of America chanced in post rats.
51:52
[UNKNOWN]: And I don't know what she expects that we do nothing, make makes no sense.
51:57
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to be able to clear up anything, Johnny.
52:00
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, we all have what are called plausibility structures.
52:04
[UNKNOWN]: plausibility structures are our standards of
52:12
[UNKNOWN]: And now a democratic republic is based on the fact that we can share common plausibility standards, but that generally comes from a common religious tradition, because religion provides the very foundation.
52:27
[UNKNOWN]: It's technically known as the sacred for that, which is considered absolute and unquestionable.
52:33
[UNKNOWN]: Hey, Josh, keep that up there, so I can, yeah, there, so I can reference it awesome.
52:37
[UNKNOWN]: Um, so, uh, anyway, we, in many ways, over the last few decades, we've lost that I think it's coming back.
52:45
[UNKNOWN]: That's part of what I argue in Civ Cosm, that we're seeing a return of religion, a religious renewal of the world is never seen before, actually, in scholars are, are, are talking about that, particularly sociologists are talking about that.
52:59
[UNKNOWN]: So it is coming back, but, uh, but in the meantime, you just may have different plausibility
53:06
[UNKNOWN]: So I tend to try to find, I like the way you kind of ended it.
53:10
[UNKNOWN]: I try to find ways of the kind of transcend the plausibility structures, the specificity, the plausibility structure.
53:19
[UNKNOWN]: So here's something I would say, don't you think it would have been more prudent to have chanted death to America after you got the nuclear weapon?
53:34
[UNKNOWN]: You know, it just throw it in your court, you know, let's just be, I mean, let's just be practical, let's just be rational.
53:39
[UNKNOWN]: Everything you say may be right, but I mean, just think practically speaking, okay, we got nukes they don't.
53:54
[UNKNOWN]: And you're sitting there going and then they're trying to develop a nuclear weapon and you're like hell no and you have the capacity to make sure they won't ever get it you can blow them to smithereens they're never going to get it again whether it's right or wrongs irrelevant don't you think it would have been better to chant death to America before the nuke now that of course they can't because part of the legitimacy of that regime.
54:21
[UNKNOWN]: was to present itself as God's ordained in this is what she's not telling you.
54:28
[UNKNOWN]: They presented themselves as God's ordained instrument.
54:32
[UNKNOWN]: The what is it?
54:32
[UNKNOWN]: The 11th of mom's ordained instrument to come in in his place.
54:39
[UNKNOWN]: and push back against and even ultimately defeat the anti-cor, well, the anti, they would call them the anti-Messiah, I guess, because they do believe Jesus is the Messiah, but this evil satanic force of the West.
54:58
[UNKNOWN]: Um, and then whatever they have to do, to push back and defeat it, they will, they will do.
55:03
[UNKNOWN]: And part of that ended up becoming the, getting hold of the new.
55:07
[UNKNOWN]: So death to America was part of their legitimacy chance.
55:12
[UNKNOWN]: I was, that was literally their political platform.
55:16
[UNKNOWN]: And I'm sorry.
55:17
[UNKNOWN]: I would just simply say to her, I'm sorry.
55:23
[UNKNOWN]: You know, you better be able to fight back if you're going to do that.
55:27
[UNKNOWN]: If you think, if you're claiming, if you're claimed to legitimacy, is that your God's instrument to defeat the Great Satan, you better be able to show it.
55:39
[UNKNOWN]: And obviously, they can't.
55:41
[UNKNOWN]: And everything she's saying, it sounds to me, is an admission that that claimed to legitimacy was all lie.
55:49
[UNKNOWN]: That's what it sounds to me that know what she's ultimately saying.
55:52
[UNKNOWN]: That claim to legitimacy is a total and complete lie.
55:56
[UNKNOWN]: They were not God's ordained instrument to destroy the great Satan.
56:00
[UNKNOWN]: America is kicking their ass.
56:03
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, embarrassingly so for all the world to see.
56:07
[UNKNOWN]: And so all the others, ones, you know, it's like they're bombing citizens instead of terrorists.
56:13
[UNKNOWN]: So she's admitting there aren't terrorists there.
56:16
[UNKNOWN]: That's at least a step.
56:17
[UNKNOWN]: But all of that is just in consequential to me.
56:20
[UNKNOWN]: In the end, there'd be no bombings if they weren't chatting death to America and trying to get a new.
56:26
[UNKNOWN]: It's just that simple.
56:30
[UNKNOWN]: In human condition, good to hear from you.
56:32
[UNKNOWN]: Why is Spamberger not held accountable for taking down the last Confederate statues in Virginia last week?
56:37
[UNKNOWN]: Didn't Trump make it a violation, devanalyze or destroy any historical statue or his removal just a loophole.
56:44
[UNKNOWN]: Thank you.
56:44
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, it's a good question.
56:46
[UNKNOWN]: I would assume removal is a loophole.
56:49
[UNKNOWN]: I saw that it was federal property, federal statues.
56:53
[UNKNOWN]: I don't think this is federal.
56:55
[UNKNOWN]: I think it's a state monument.
56:59
[UNKNOWN]: There's, there's no stopping this right now.
57:03
[UNKNOWN]: Cultural Marxist states are going to go cultural Marxist.
57:08
[UNKNOWN]: They are going to fulfill their job descriptions.
57:11
[UNKNOWN]: It's one of the reason why you're seeing this massive left U.G.
57:16
[UNKNOWN]: Migration crisis, as it were, not crisis, obviously.
57:21
[UNKNOWN]: But it's one of the reasons why we're winning post 2030 census.
57:26
[UNKNOWN]: is just a red states are placed with people fleeing.
57:30
[UNKNOWN]: It was COVID in 2020 and now it's cultural Marxism.
57:33
[UNKNOWN]: They've had it.
57:34
[UNKNOWN]: They don't want this woke nonsense at all.
57:37
[UNKNOWN]: So they're leaving California, the leaving Minnesota, the leaving Jersey, they're leaving Virginia, Virginia's losing population by leaps and bounds.
57:44
[UNKNOWN]: If Trump does his job rightly,
57:47
[UNKNOWN]: Novo can a nova can northern Virginia can see a massive plunge in their population because the administrative state and deep state had been so gutted.
57:59
[UNKNOWN]: And then that's where all the blue voting is is really concentrated in as well.
58:05
[UNKNOWN]: and rich men and so on.
58:06
[UNKNOWN]: And so, um, no, she, she's, she's, she's, she's, she's, she's, she's just going to, she's going to fulfill the job description of socialist scum and she's going to reinvent history in accordance with this new ethno nationalist left BLM and LaRazan and the third worldism that's animating the left today.
58:31
[UNKNOWN]: Ironically, as soon as they get real power, they'll get rid of her real quick.
58:34
[UNKNOWN]: real fast.
58:36
[UNKNOWN]: So she's a dead woman walking in one way or the other.
58:41
[UNKNOWN]: So it's upsetting, it's terrible, but right now it seems to me that the Trump administration is very much focused on mass deportations.
58:53
[UNKNOWN]: particularly out of blue states.
58:55
[UNKNOWN]: We've been seeing it with New York in operation rotten apple.
58:59
[UNKNOWN]: So out of Minneapolis, it's happening at record numbers under Tom Homan.
59:03
[UNKNOWN]: I'm glad he replaced Kristi Nome.
59:06
[UNKNOWN]: She was, she was the head of the deportation operation.
59:10
[UNKNOWN]: Now it's Tom Homan.
59:11
[UNKNOWN]: Of course, now it's Mark Wayne Mullen at DHS.
59:14
[UNKNOWN]: but he's doing it much better and she liked the cameras.
59:18
[UNKNOWN]: She thought it was a boost to the base.
59:21
[UNKNOWN]: Home and things, yeah, it's a boost to the base, but it's also a boost to the lunatics as well.
59:27
[UNKNOWN]: And it could end up causing people who are squeamish about it to side with the lunatics.
59:34
[UNKNOWN]: So he goes very quiet.
59:37
[UNKNOWN]: a very inconspicuous does the job before any of the lunatics can show up.
59:43
[UNKNOWN]: Deports all, I mean, we're talking 50,000 a month.
59:48
[UNKNOWN]: And so the idea is get rid of as drain the blue states.
59:53
[UNKNOWN]: of their population, both in terms of conservatives leaving and going and bolstering red states and then getting rid of their illegal population, get rid of the illegal populations, whatever remains in red states, because we've seen a lot in Texas obviously.
1:00:08
[UNKNOWN]: And then secure the new map of 2030, where red states get 14 to 16 new electoral votes and seats in Congress.
1:00:21
[UNKNOWN]: the blue states lose those, and then we forever box them out of both congressional power and federal or executive power because of the electoral college.
1:00:35
[UNKNOWN]: That's what he's going for.
1:00:37
[UNKNOWN]: And if you're going to have some left-wing lunatics in the process,
1:00:42
[UNKNOWN]: take down some Confederate statues in their own blue states, Trump isn't going to take you on with that.
1:00:48
[UNKNOWN]: He's he's he's defunding it looks like he's going to be removing the tax exempt status of universities that don't comply.
1:00:56
[UNKNOWN]: It's about time.
1:00:57
[UNKNOWN]: I think that don't comply with the
1:01:00
[UNKNOWN]: with the anti-discrimination laws that reverse anti-discrimination.
1:01:05
[UNKNOWN]: And it's about time because I think universities are the truth sleeper cells.
1:01:10
[UNKNOWN]: So he's very locked in on what he's doing here.
1:01:15
[UNKNOWN]: And I just think, yes, unfortunately, their days are over, but unfortunately, it just comes down to a question of how much damage
1:01:30
[UNKNOWN]: Racked off, I got to Steve on suit, out of all the BS of Democrats are going to win in November.
1:01:35
[UNKNOWN]: And Red Eagle must be doing shrooms saying the hub goblin is going to win in Arizona.
1:01:41
[UNKNOWN]: I live here and the demo rat plantations hated in most America, Piccaddy Good.
1:01:48
[UNKNOWN]: So believe the USAID shutdown, DNC, broke, is signaling, Red tsunami.
1:01:53
[UNKNOWN]: your thoughts?
1:01:54
[UNKNOWN]: Well, again, I love your optimism.
1:01:58
[UNKNOWN]: I know, again, I don't know if there's going to be a red tsunami.
1:02:01
[UNKNOWN]: I don't know.
1:02:02
[UNKNOWN]: It's just, so where I would temper you on that is that we're dealing with, it seems to me an unavoidable refractory period and a refractory period is
1:02:22
[UNKNOWN]: like we did in 2024.
1:02:24
[UNKNOWN]: A very significant, a minority, but it's portion of its voters go into apathy.
1:02:37
[UNKNOWN]: It just happens.
1:02:38
[UNKNOWN]: It's just the nature of the beast.
1:02:40
[UNKNOWN]: You can yell and scream against it all you want.
1:02:42
[UNKNOWN]: but they they hit into apathy they won the white house and they don't care about and they tune out of politics they do and they don't they don't vote in the midterms they don't show up whereas the other part of the part of the loss has been frothing at the bit to get to the midterms to get their revenge so you almost always see
1:03:02
[UNKNOWN]: Whatever party has been locked out of power from the White House, they will always be a plus party.
1:03:09
[UNKNOWN]: So in this case, it would be Democrat at least plus three plus four plus five.
1:03:13
[UNKNOWN]: Now, the fact that Harvard Harris is seeing a Republican plus two is astonishing.
1:03:18
[UNKNOWN]: So we're going to keep it our eye on that.
1:03:20
[UNKNOWN]: Well, have a few more polls before November from Harvard Harris to gauge that.
1:03:24
[UNKNOWN]: But that's pretty astonishing.
1:03:26
[UNKNOWN]: If it's, if it's,
1:03:28
[UNKNOWN]: Republican plus two, you got it.
1:03:30
[UNKNOWN]: You got your your red tsunami.
1:03:32
[UNKNOWN]: It's going to happen.
1:03:33
[UNKNOWN]: Most likely, it's going to be a Democrat plus two plus three, which is not enough for them to take the house.
1:03:41
[UNKNOWN]: It will not be a red tsunami, but it's not going to be enough Democrat votes to get them passed to 18 certainly not get the Senate in that case.
1:03:53
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, I'm definitely keeping an eye on Mandy Biggs, he's down about five.
1:03:59
[UNKNOWN]: Again, it's the polling is the polling accurate.
1:04:02
[UNKNOWN]: We have to see.
1:04:04
[UNKNOWN]: And just ready goal.
1:04:06
[UNKNOWN]: Jack is hedging his bets.
1:04:09
[UNKNOWN]: He's been trying to be very, very.
1:04:12
[UNKNOWN]: He saw a huge red wave in 2022, as all pollsters did in fairness, that just didn't happen, you know, because we found out because of the low to no prop voters that didn't show up.
1:04:25
[UNKNOWN]: So, I think he's just being more careful right now.
1:04:29
[UNKNOWN]: Things will tighten up, the polls will tighten up, and then the predictions will tighten up as we get closer to November.
1:04:36
[UNKNOWN]: but I'm with you, I think Katie Hobbes has to go.
1:04:39
[UNKNOWN]: Brian, my dear friend, I heard yesterday the Trump administration appealed the rogue judge blocking the post office rule at Scotas.
1:04:44
[UNKNOWN]: Haven't mail and ballots begun going out already.
1:04:47
[UNKNOWN]: Is so, even a national emergency order help.
1:04:51
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, I think it'll help for, it's great question.
1:04:54
[UNKNOWN]: Yes, they started the, we had one in your backyard in Florida started to go out to Republicans, lovely.
1:05:02
[UNKNOWN]: But no, I think so.
1:05:05
[UNKNOWN]: I think the national emergency could do it.
1:05:08
[UNKNOWN]: Again, we'll have to see over the next couple of weeks.
1:05:10
[UNKNOWN]: It's still early.
1:05:12
[UNKNOWN]: So there are some states, a couple of stay handful of states are sending it out in the next couple of weeks, Pennsylvania.
1:05:18
[UNKNOWN]: Your old stomping grounds being one of them.
1:05:20
[UNKNOWN]: But it is still early.
1:05:22
[UNKNOWN]: We still have a few weeks to go.
1:05:26
[UNKNOWN]: And so, yeah, I'm watching too, baited breath and waiting to see what Trump's going to do in terms of what he's going to take matters into his own hands.
1:05:37
[UNKNOWN]: Or whether, whether Supreme Court's good step in, or whether Trump thinks it's strong enough.
1:05:44
[UNKNOWN]: Again, he's got data we simply don't have.
1:05:46
[UNKNOWN]: That's what we always have to remember.
1:05:48
[UNKNOWN]: And no one wants
1:05:55
[UNKNOWN]: Rita, why are the Senate runners so again to say that?
1:06:00
[UNKNOWN]: Are they really questionable?
1:06:02
[UNKNOWN]: Are there really questionable things in there that are we're not aware of?
1:06:07
[UNKNOWN]: And is there any way to change the Senate runners minds about it?
1:06:10
[UNKNOWN]: Should we just forget it?
1:06:11
[UNKNOWN]: Great question, Rita.
1:06:15
[UNKNOWN]: Well, I mean, I'll just be straight with you, right?
1:06:18
[UNKNOWN]: Again, it's the stockdale principle.
1:06:21
[UNKNOWN]: We have to be honest.
1:06:23
[UNKNOWN]: with the dire nature of what we're dealing with.
1:06:25
[UNKNOWN]: The vast majority of Republican senators are not MAGA, they hate MAGA, they despise MAGA, they hate you, they hate Trump.
1:06:32
[UNKNOWN]: There's just no way around that.
1:06:34
[UNKNOWN]: And the MAGA movement is an executive movement.
1:06:38
[UNKNOWN]: It is an article to movement.
1:06:40
[UNKNOWN]: It is a presidential movement, because it is fundamentally about Trump.
1:06:46
[UNKNOWN]: So all these break-off,
1:06:48
[UNKNOWN]: You know, Tucker, Alex Jonesy kind of podcasters are just kind of living in a virtual reality quite literally.
1:06:58
[UNKNOWN]: They're trying to pretend that Trump betrayed America first.
1:07:02
[UNKNOWN]: When America first is Trump, whether we like it or not, you could say that's dangerous when I've seen the libertarian folk do that all the time.
1:07:09
[UNKNOWN]: Well, Steve, you're putting all your hopes in one man.
1:07:13
[UNKNOWN]: No one, no, I'm just describing what it is.
1:07:17
[UNKNOWN]: Trump is the mythic figure that is saving our republic right now and then there is an entire Republican party emerging around him with his endorsements and the last ones who are going to get incorporated in this remade Republican party Trump in party is the Senate.
1:07:38
[UNKNOWN]: they're the last ones because they're up for reelection.
1:07:42
[UNKNOWN]: So the least.
1:07:44
[UNKNOWN]: So how's so go first?
1:07:46
[UNKNOWN]: How's it become much more maga as we're finding?
1:07:50
[UNKNOWN]: It's already happening.
1:07:51
[UNKNOWN]: We're getting rid of the riff rath that we're obstructing the
1:07:55
[UNKNOWN]: agenda, and increasingly we're getting rid of the riff raf that we're structing the agenda.
1:08:00
[UNKNOWN]: We got rid of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, got rid of John corn and in Texas.
1:08:04
[UNKNOWN]: We're just getting rid of those idiots, and we're putting in true, strong, maga, Republicans in deep red states in the Senate.
1:08:14
[UNKNOWN]: So until that process is complete, it's good.
1:08:17
[UNKNOWN]: Take a generation.
1:08:18
[UNKNOWN]: It's good.
1:08:19
[UNKNOWN]: Take a while.
1:08:21
[UNKNOWN]: The Senate is always going to be obstructionist.
1:08:23
[UNKNOWN]: It's always.
1:08:24
[UNKNOWN]: That's why we have to focus primarily on the White House and executive power in the meantime.
1:08:31
[UNKNOWN]: So that's why I've said I think Trump should just declare a national emergency and be done with it.
1:08:36
[UNKNOWN]: And again, challenge the courts to overturn it.
1:08:40
[UNKNOWN]: He can turn around and appeal to 1983 Supreme Court precedent.
1:08:45
[UNKNOWN]: Now, you can't, can't overturn a national emergency.
1:08:48
[UNKNOWN]: You don't get to overturn any more than you can tell me whether we can go to war with Iran or not.
1:08:52
[UNKNOWN]: Only Congress can do that.
1:08:53
[UNKNOWN]: And then Congress needs two-thirds vote.
1:08:56
[UNKNOWN]: Good luck on getting that.
1:08:57
[UNKNOWN]: So I just think until then,
1:09:03
[UNKNOWN]: we're going to have to rely on good old fashion arm twisting to get the Senate Republicans to cooperate.
1:09:14
[UNKNOWN]: Because they hate maga, they don't think there's cheating.
1:09:18
[UNKNOWN]: And some of them like Lisa Murkowski rely on cheating to win with the ranked choice voting, which is just a blatantly corrupt form of it enables a legitimate loser to win.
1:09:33
[UNKNOWN]: All of that said, I think soon can twist a couple of more arms Susan Collins said she's she's she's a girl and that's pretty much it that's all we needed was Susan Collins now we're at 50 and then you just have to attach it.
1:09:49
[UNKNOWN]: the save-act to reconciliation bill that only requires 50 votes plus the tie-breaking vote from JD Vance.
1:09:59
[UNKNOWN]: And that's where Susan Collins, by the way, has been waffling.
1:10:02
[UNKNOWN]: She's like, oh, but that's against parliamentary rules.
1:10:05
[UNKNOWN]: And then the parliamentarian does come in and say, that's, you don't get to do that.
1:10:10
[UNKNOWN]: But she's an unelected bureaucrat.
1:10:12
[UNKNOWN]: And she should be fired.
1:10:13
[UNKNOWN]: And John Thun can fire her.
1:10:15
[UNKNOWN]: So that's a Trump once hardball and we're just going to see if Thun can play it.
1:10:21
[UNKNOWN]: Magga 24 ever, Dr. Steve since Trump, the Republicans, is so much money and Elon, is going to contribute even more, whether it be a focus on getting conservative judges in district attorneys.
1:10:31
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, that's a great question.
1:10:35
[UNKNOWN]: I don't know.
1:10:36
[UNKNOWN]: I have not come across any of that in this election.
1:10:42
[UNKNOWN]: I think this election really is about holding
1:10:45
[UNKNOWN]: as much as we get holding the Senate first and foremost because we should be able to and then trying to hold the House against precedent.
1:10:54
[UNKNOWN]: I just think that that's the priority just so that the president's agenda can continue to at least in some way shape or form get legislative support.
1:11:08
[UNKNOWN]: It's just it's a it's a nightmare with the Senate being
1:11:12
[UNKNOWN]: in such political paralysis as it is.
1:11:15
[UNKNOWN]: But that's a very good question.
1:11:16
[UNKNOWN]: I haven't caught up with that to be honest with you.
1:11:18
[UNKNOWN]: But when I'm seeing right now it's primarily congressional.
1:11:21
[UNKNOWN]: That's the emphasis where the money's going.
1:11:26
[UNKNOWN]: uh... bills vingiger uh... off-topic bot could you play got the jams sometime from your album solide a glory for way back in ninety eight solio on the seven under club video would be great back music for the end of your podcast with their you go maybe we need to do that
1:11:44
[UNKNOWN]: Josh put a note there and maybe we need to do a bringing a Gothic jam about it.
1:11:49
[UNKNOWN]: It's a good tune.
1:11:50
[UNKNOWN]: It's a really good tune.
1:11:51
[UNKNOWN]: It's an old bluegrass tune.
1:11:54
[UNKNOWN]: I can't even remember the actual bluegrass tune in the jam to it.
1:11:58
[UNKNOWN]: That's in the major key that I turned into a minor key and made it found it sounded more like medieval music in a way.
1:12:06
[UNKNOWN]: So that's where the term Gothic jam comes from.
1:12:09
[UNKNOWN]: Thanks, Phil.
1:12:10
[UNKNOWN]: We'll see what we can do there.
1:12:13
[UNKNOWN]: Texas on the shark.
1:12:15
[UNKNOWN]: Good to hear from you.
1:12:15
[UNKNOWN]: What did the polls look like in 2022?
1:12:18
[UNKNOWN]: I remember that even the dams were bracing themselves for Red tsunami and then it turned out to be a rip of that's exactly right.
1:12:24
[UNKNOWN]: That's why again we have to be very very careful.
1:12:27
[UNKNOWN]: with the polling, so that's why I showed the precedent that Harvard Harris has.
1:12:35
[UNKNOWN]: Harvard Harris tends to nail the polling pretty well, but that's why Seth Cashle doesn't even rely on polls at all.
1:12:44
[UNKNOWN]: He looks at voter registration trends and he looks in mail-in ballot trends.
1:12:48
[UNKNOWN]: So he's looking at real numbers.
1:12:50
[UNKNOWN]: He's looking at real voters, real numbers, not some abstraction.
1:12:55
[UNKNOWN]: uh... twenty twenty two uh... the polls were off twenty twenty four the polls were off you could be assured twenty twenty six the polls are all so we don't i i ignore all of the anti trump polling out there i ignore always done in the thirty is used to low is a the msn bc they're they're just there to give msn bc talking points
1:13:14
[UNKNOWN]: That's it.
1:13:14
[UNKNOWN]: That's all they are.
1:13:15
[UNKNOWN]: I ignore the Tallahureka polls, the Tallahureka polls completely.
1:13:21
[UNKNOWN]: They're just there to give a money in the end to justify donors who are generally politically stupid to write them big, big checks.
1:13:30
[UNKNOWN]: So it's a it's a business.
1:13:31
[UNKNOWN]: It's an industry, I ignore vast majority of it.
1:13:33
[UNKNOWN]: But I do zero in on quantum quantum synths.
1:13:36
[UNKNOWN]: I do zero in on inside the vanage.
1:13:40
[UNKNOWN]: Um, I do zero on Atlas Intel on Harvard Harris.
1:13:44
[UNKNOWN]: Those are those are historically very accurate polls.
1:13:48
[UNKNOWN]: Well, though, tool.
1:13:49
[UNKNOWN]: Happy Labor Day.
1:13:50
[UNKNOWN]: That's true.
1:13:51
[UNKNOWN]: Happy Labor Day to everyone out there.
1:13:53
[UNKNOWN]: Uh, how has information the Clancy trial been allowed to leak?
1:14:00
[UNKNOWN]: Um, from the jury, even if it may not be factual, isn't it illegal or at least unethical?
1:14:06
[UNKNOWN]: Thank you, Will.
1:14:07
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, I, I think so.
1:14:09
[UNKNOWN]: Um, I think so.
1:14:11
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, this whole.
1:14:14
[UNKNOWN]: whole Clancy trial has just been an absolute, I mean, yes, an answer to your question is, yes, and I don't know what's going on.
1:14:23
[UNKNOWN]: I think the, I think the, my name, say Jonathan Turley thinks that the jury should have been sequestered.
1:14:30
[UNKNOWN]: They shouldn't be subject to all the, I'll just be blunt all the shit online and on all the, the MSNBC nonsense that you're
1:14:43
[UNKNOWN]: You know, I have to tell you, I think this is probably the most devastating bloat of feminism that we have ever seen since feminism began.
1:14:55
[UNKNOWN]: If Amber heard blue apart me too, if Amber heard right during the Johnny Dept Charles, if she killed the me too movement, then I think
1:15:14
[UNKNOWN]: Clancy is killing because she's done more.
1:15:16
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, I hate, you know, I'm not going to say, I don't want to be crude here.
1:15:20
[UNKNOWN]: She's a more murder and more ways than one.
1:15:24
[UNKNOWN]: um she she has she has killed feminists and what I mean by that is look we'll go with you and again this is what's killing wokeness in general right um but what we saw with Amber heard is we'll go with you to the extent that you want to clean clean up the creeps if there are these Harvey Weinstein's out there and so and and who take advantage of you look I got a daughter
1:15:51
[UNKNOWN]: You know, I've got a what I don't want that to happen to them.
1:15:55
[UNKNOWN]: I don't want that to happen to the women that I love in my life.
1:15:58
[UNKNOWN]: And so I'm with you.
1:16:00
[UNKNOWN]: That's what you want to do.
1:16:00
[UNKNOWN]: If you want to clean up this nonsense, I'm with you 100%.
1:16:04
[UNKNOWN]: But me too quickly turned into a two tier double standard double standard legal system.
1:16:16
[UNKNOWN]: We're now we can, we can smear men for the mere sport of it.
1:16:24
[UNKNOWN]: Now, now we get to abuse men.
1:16:27
[UNKNOWN]: You abused us.
1:16:29
[UNKNOWN]: And I still remember what was that actress's name, Alyssa Milana.
1:16:35
[UNKNOWN]: Got, notice we know here from her anymore.
1:16:37
[UNKNOWN]: She was one of the biggest me two advocates out there.
1:16:41
[UNKNOWN]: And when she was asked about Brett Kavanaugh, yeah, but you do understand, I mean, what if it turns out that Ford's accusations are lies, you will have destroyed a man's entire career.
1:16:57
[UNKNOWN]: And Alyssa Milano didn't bat an eye.
1:17:00
[UNKNOWN]: And she said, it's worth it.
1:17:03
[UNKNOWN]: Even if innocent people have to be destroyed, it's worth it to rectify all of the abuse that we women have experienced over the centuries.
1:17:13
[UNKNOWN]: So the moment,
1:17:17
[UNKNOWN]: the world men in particular, but I think even women.
1:17:20
[UNKNOWN]: So, oh, so this is turning into literally, you know, a blood feud.
1:17:25
[UNKNOWN]: This is turning into pure raw.
1:17:29
[UNKNOWN]: You know, gender cleansing as it were, they were done with it, they were done with it and I think we're seeing the same thing here with the Clancy trial.
1:17:42
[UNKNOWN]: I think we're seeing, we're seeing feminism in general.
1:17:45
[UNKNOWN]: It's not even the me to move.
1:17:47
[UNKNOWN]: It's women, women standing with women, postpartial, all this nonsense that she's not, to my nose, she hasn't even been diagnosed with this stuff, like technically diagnosed with all depression and the like by psychologists.
1:18:02
[UNKNOWN]: I think men are recognizing this is this is turned into feminism is turned into the very same kind of, you know, double standard two tier legal system that we want nothing to do with and so men are going to push back against this like you have never seen before.
1:18:21
[UNKNOWN]: So I don't know what the I don't know what the outcome will be I understand we have one person on that jury who is up.
1:18:29
[UNKNOWN]: standing in sanity and the other 11 who've gone nuts and bought into this two-tier system where women are allowed to commit crimes men are not allowed to commit and that's just we're not going to live in a society like that.
1:18:49
[UNKNOWN]: Move your onic you think scotists are pulled uh mail law why is polling broken?
1:18:54
[UNKNOWN]: All right yeah I do I do again you know we'll see I mean I'm
1:19:00
[UNKNOWN]: I'm reading the analysts here, but I think the, I think Scotaswap hold the standards that, that, the federal government is placing on the use of their.
1:19:17
[UNKNOWN]: agency, the U.S.
1:19:19
[UNKNOWN]: Postal Service in state elections, yes, state elections get to decide how they want to do their votes.
1:19:28
[UNKNOWN]: If California wants to bake corruption into the cake,
1:19:32
[UNKNOWN]: they can do it at least now unless you have a save act or something like that, that forces them to comply with national standards.
1:19:40
[UNKNOWN]: But if they're going to use a federal agency to do it, the federal agency does not comply with that option.
1:19:47
[UNKNOWN]: So the federal agency says, you have to hand over your voter registration data and we're going to cross-reference it with our own citizenship-based data.
1:19:57
[UNKNOWN]: And whatever doesn't match up, they're not getting a ballot in California.
1:20:00
[UNKNOWN]: This is, well, we're not going to do that.
1:20:03
[UNKNOWN]: I think the Supreme Court's going to say, well, you're going to fall victim to the sanction that's entailed in that requirement.
1:20:09
[UNKNOWN]: Poling is broken because it's left-wing.
1:20:11
[UNKNOWN]: In the end, it's left-wing and it's expensive.
1:20:15
[UNKNOWN]: So I would say ideology in cost.
1:20:20
[UNKNOWN]: The polling is traditionally, like a lot of political science departments and disciplines.
1:20:31
[UNKNOWN]: It's left-wing.
1:20:33
[UNKNOWN]: And polling, it normally comes out of universities, you have the Quinnipiac polling, for example, from Connecticut, University of Quinnipiac.
1:20:42
[UNKNOWN]: So, I mean, they come out of universities, they're just left-wing in general, they tend to
1:20:50
[UNKNOWN]: the demographic that gets pulled is in orderly left-wing because they tend to be more cosmopolitan, more urban, rather than rural, rural voters are harder to get in touch of and there's not a density, low-locative density for where
1:21:13
[UNKNOWN]: the rule voters are being all spread out.
1:21:16
[UNKNOWN]: So just both the pollsters and the polling sample, skew left.
1:21:22
[UNKNOWN]: And then it's just if you want a really good poll, it costs a lot of money and it's a lot of work.
1:21:27
[UNKNOWN]: And when you just, when all you're looking for is a quick headline, a snap headline to just bring the talking heads in for an hour and meet your quota of advertising revenue, you're not gonna dump money like that.
1:21:47
[UNKNOWN]: How do I respond to conservatives telling me that I should cut my family from my life?
1:21:52
[UNKNOWN]: Because they believe the media refused to become like the left.
1:21:57
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, my, thank you for that, G-B-Y.
1:22:06
[UNKNOWN]: Because what I would say in the end is I think they're confusing being right with relationships.
1:22:17
[UNKNOWN]: I think they're confusing being right with relationships.
1:22:21
[UNKNOWN]: So our lives have multiple levels of meaning.
1:22:26
[UNKNOWN]: We have an upshirt.
1:22:27
[UNKNOWN]: I know you're very spiritual man, so I know you appreciate it obviously, but I think we all in eightly have a spiritual sense that we either feed and exercise or kind of star.
1:22:44
[UNKNOWN]: We all have a relational dimension to our lives.
1:22:47
[UNKNOWN]: Again, that we either feed or starve.
1:22:51
[UNKNOWN]: We have physical dimensions to our lives that we either, you're taking good care of ourselves or we're not taking very good care of ourselves.
1:22:59
[UNKNOWN]: We have professional dimensions of our life and we have financial dimensions to our life.
1:23:07
[UNKNOWN]: And by the way, in that spiritual, that's where I tended to put the aesthetic as well.
1:23:11
[UNKNOWN]: So art and I see from Europe, so the beautiful art museums, the cathedrals.
1:23:17
[UNKNOWN]: the incredible, incomparable music traditions and so the literature tradition.
1:23:23
[UNKNOWN]: So music, literature, art architecture, poetry, you know, you name it though that I would see as all an extension of the spiritual side of things made, made physical for sure.
1:23:35
[UNKNOWN]: But we all have different dimensions in our lives.
1:23:38
[UNKNOWN]: And as part of that,
1:23:40
[UNKNOWN]: those dimensions.
1:23:41
[UNKNOWN]: There is, you know, lower ones.
1:23:44
[UNKNOWN]: Those are the five basic, but then there are lower ones.
1:23:47
[UNKNOWN]: Like, okay, once, once, you know, you're spiritually mature and, you know, relationally mature, you have a family and your healthy physically taking good care of yourself and you've got a good job and you're investing in and you've got good finances.
1:24:01
[UNKNOWN]: Okay, well, now you can become a citizen of the polys.
1:24:05
[UNKNOWN]: So now you have your political dimension of life, and I think everybody should have a political dimension.
1:24:10
[UNKNOWN]: Most people do, they're just oftentimes, not a very good one, not a very thought-through one, regardless, it's cool.
1:24:17
[UNKNOWN]: But then you have a political dimension, you can keep going, you know, but I think those sex are pretty, pretty much a very full, healthy human life.
1:24:31
[UNKNOWN]: What I would say,
1:24:34
[UNKNOWN]: is I think your friends are confusing the political with the relational.
1:24:42
[UNKNOWN]: They're different dimensions.
1:24:43
[UNKNOWN]: Now oftentimes they can overlap.
1:24:45
[UNKNOWN]: My wife is very conservative.
1:24:47
[UNKNOWN]: I couldn't even imagine marrying someone who wasn't conservative and living with, and I mean, we love politics.
1:24:53
[UNKNOWN]: We talk politics all the time in culture and religion and you name it.
1:25:00
[UNKNOWN]: I couldn't imagine being married to an atheist or something like that.
1:25:04
[UNKNOWN]: So,
1:25:09
[UNKNOWN]: And I think that the dimensions of a flourishing human do have priority.
1:25:19
[UNKNOWN]: So I think our relationship with God is first and foremost, that's spiritual.
1:25:25
[UNKNOWN]: dimension.
1:25:26
[UNKNOWN]: And then our relationship to our loved ones love God, love neighbor, the relational dimensions next.
1:25:33
[UNKNOWN]: And I would say probably physical, you know, don't burn yourself if you put professional first and you can you can physically burn yourself out.
1:25:42
[UNKNOWN]: But so I'm taking care of your body.
1:25:45
[UNKNOWN]: would be third and then fourth would be professional finding a vocation where you can flourish in terms of your own unique gifts and talents and then take the money that you're getting from that and and pour it into some investments and growing your money your financial and then becoming a member of the policy.
1:26:06
[UNKNOWN]: So if you if you lay it out in terms of priority notice politics
1:26:13
[UNKNOWN]: As I'm sure most everybody on this channel would say a men to how would politics, right?
1:26:19
[UNKNOWN]: We want politics to be the least intrusive thing in our lives.
1:26:23
[UNKNOWN]: We want to just live our lives and flourish as humans.
1:26:28
[UNKNOWN]: So politics is about where as relationship it's at near the top.
1:26:33
[UNKNOWN]: actually if you think spirituality is a relationship, right?
1:26:37
[UNKNOWN]: All of these are relationships in their own sense, but the relationship to family and loved ones is on the top.
1:26:45
[UNKNOWN]: Who do you want around your deathbed?
1:26:49
[UNKNOWN]: Who do you want in your last hours?
1:26:51
[UNKNOWN]: The mayor of your city?
1:26:54
[UNKNOWN]: somebody from the political realm or do you want your children or what you love once?
1:26:58
[UNKNOWN]: Who do you want?
1:26:59
[UNKNOWN]: So I am absolutely committed.
1:27:04
[UNKNOWN]: So I preached to myself on this.
1:27:07
[UNKNOWN]: I have, I made a very concerted decision a number of years ago.
1:27:12
[UNKNOWN]: that I would never let politics come in the way of me and my loved ones.
1:27:19
[UNKNOWN]: I never argue politics with family, never.
1:27:24
[UNKNOWN]: I purposely don't.
1:27:27
[UNKNOWN]: And what helps is, and I'll wrap it up here with this, what helps is, so if you come across,
1:27:35
[UNKNOWN]: somebody of a left-wing persuasion in your family or just a good or a dear friend that you don't want to lose and things like that.
1:27:45
[UNKNOWN]: If you can learn to hear them that is discuss it with them from their vantage point, they will love you for that.
1:27:59
[UNKNOWN]: Because it probably, they probably know you, and they probably know you're not coming from that advantage point.
1:28:04
[UNKNOWN]: So, if you do so, for me, it's populism.
1:28:07
[UNKNOWN]: I always come from a populist perspective, because populism is about left versus right.
1:28:12
[UNKNOWN]: It's about people versus permanent political class.
1:28:15
[UNKNOWN]: And so like somebody's talking about Mamedani with me and they're like, yeah, no, I kind of think he's pretty cool.
1:28:20
[UNKNOWN]: You know what I mean, it is real things are really unaffordable and both Republicans and Democrats haven't done anything for us and I just think this guy's really cool.
1:28:30
[UNKNOWN]: I can I could talk to that person.
1:28:33
[UNKNOWN]: Now if you watch my videos, I slam them down all the time because to me, the bigger picture is not even people versus political class, it's Patriots versus Communists at this point.
1:28:43
[UNKNOWN]: It's not left versus rights, Patriots versus Communists.
1:28:45
[UNKNOWN]: So, and by the way Tucker appears to be going full communist strangely enough, I'm just from what I'm seeing a play.
1:28:52
[UNKNOWN]: I don't know why I'm just adding that in there, but I just thought about him some of the common things that he's been making a play.
1:28:57
[UNKNOWN]: So, um,
1:28:59
[UNKNOWN]: So what I'll do is I'll set that aside and I'll think I'll start talking like, yeah, you know, it's really interesting.
1:29:09
[UNKNOWN]: I'm really into politics, actually.
1:29:11
[UNKNOWN]: And I've found that analysts are saying today that the whole left-right divide is collapsing.
1:29:17
[UNKNOWN]: And it's really the people versus establishment, this permanent political class.
1:29:22
[UNKNOWN]: And you will see every leftist you talk to go, yeah,
1:29:25
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, no, I know.
1:29:26
[UNKNOWN]: And, you know, and that's why I really like Abdul, you know, uh, what's his name?
1:29:32
[UNKNOWN]: El, if I had, uh, I'm, right, I'm, I forget, well, I'm forgetting his name off the top of my head.
1:29:38
[UNKNOWN]: Um, but that's why I really like Mandonia.
1:29:40
[UNKNOWN]: That's why I really like,
1:29:42
[UNKNOWN]: Rashida to leave, you know, they're really sticking it to the establishment.
1:29:46
[UNKNOWN]: It's okay.
1:29:47
[UNKNOWN]: You can go with them on that.
1:29:48
[UNKNOWN]: And you say, and you know what the establishment should be sticked.
1:29:52
[UNKNOWN]: You're right.
1:29:53
[UNKNOWN]: And then I might even say, but you know, and I'm not trying to be, I'm not trying to be a jerk about this, but you should know that.
1:30:04
[UNKNOWN]: That's the attraction of Trump.
1:30:05
[UNKNOWN]: It's not just the show we say, the left or the liberals that are,
1:30:10
[UNKNOWN]: feeling disenfranchised by the establishment, the right has as well.
1:30:14
[UNKNOWN]: And then you could even say, and then there's just this interesting kind of like, have you seen what Tucker's been doing of late?
1:30:19
[UNKNOWN]: Tucker's been having like a lot of like left-wing people and and he's really interested in in this Michigan race, but actually from from the Democrat side, because he just thinks Trump sold out to the establishment rhinos when it comes to Iran.
1:30:35
[UNKNOWN]: You can have conversations
1:30:39
[UNKNOWN]: that are peaceful and rich and pale and every once in a while dropped some pearls of, you know, but that's also why on the right they're going there and show them the right isn't as in, you know, as evil and Nazi-like estate as they claim.
1:30:56
[UNKNOWN]: But I'm when all said and done, I'll wrap it up.
1:30:59
[UNKNOWN]: I appreciate your question.
1:31:03
[UNKNOWN]: When all said and done,
1:31:10
[UNKNOWN]: two priorities in your human flourishing.
1:31:13
[UNKNOWN]: You have your relational priority, which is right at the top, and then you have your political priority, and the political priority always takes a back seat to a relationship.
1:31:24
[UNKNOWN]: Always, you can be right where you can have a relationship.
1:31:30
[UNKNOWN]: And you just have to ask, which one does God want you to have in the end?
1:31:37
[UNKNOWN]: rebel contrast the GOP holding a midterm convention to trumpets winds under trump and maga while they divided democrats are trying to stay out of the spotlight is there genuinely an enthusiasm gap for November there was there was it was very noticeable but that's the summer and that's during the summer response bias where the democrats are overwhelming uh they
1:32:03
[UNKNOWN]: in the poll pools in the in the crosstabs.
1:32:08
[UNKNOWN]: So yes, right now Republicans look like they're ready to go.
1:32:11
[UNKNOWN]: Republicans want want to do this.
1:32:12
[UNKNOWN]: They want to they want to win these midterms.
1:32:15
[UNKNOWN]: And they want to win them for Trump.
1:32:16
[UNKNOWN]: They know they know Democrats are insane and they don't want to see Democrats coming to power.
1:32:23
[UNKNOWN]: Again, I think we're fine in the Senate and the question now is whether we can hold that house and with the enthusiasm gap tightening as we've seen just to double our two single digits we've got a good chance.
1:32:40
[UNKNOWN]: Texas and the shock, things like Missouri are annoying, but we also take this as encouragement that they're so concerned about their chances.
1:32:48
[UNKNOWN]: They feel they have to so chaos, where we're possible.
1:32:50
[UNKNOWN]: I love the way you're thinking.
1:32:51
[UNKNOWN]: That's probably what's going on.
1:32:54
[UNKNOWN]: Again, these are Republican appointed judges, but for heaven's sayings, they might as well just be Democrats.
1:33:02
[UNKNOWN]: And that's a, it's a problem with the law system as a whole or legal institutions are ridiculously left-wing.
1:33:10
[UNKNOWN]: It's, it's all the DEI, it's all the human resources department that started with Obama.
1:33:17
[UNKNOWN]: So, um, no, I'm with you.
1:33:19
[UNKNOWN]: I think you can take it as a, as a strange sort of confirmation that we're crushing it.
1:33:29
[UNKNOWN]: Uh, buck eye, scruff.
1:33:31
[UNKNOWN]: You're not wrong about Midwest Republicans.
1:33:33
[UNKNOWN]: I'm seeing a lot of of Amy acted and shared brown support here in Ohio.
1:33:38
[UNKNOWN]: Some people don't learn.
1:33:39
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, I know I'm with and they're not going to win.
1:33:41
[UNKNOWN]: Don't worry about it.
1:33:43
[UNKNOWN]: But I know I'm with you.
1:33:44
[UNKNOWN]: It's just absurd.
1:33:45
[UNKNOWN]: But they're also the left is the left is more animated than the right.
1:33:50
[UNKNOWN]: But like I said, voter registration is a bitch and there's just if you thought Virginia and New Jersey had an overwhelming partisan advantage on the left.
1:34:02
[UNKNOWN]: Just wait to you see, of course, the Ohio partisan advantage on the right.
1:34:10
[UNKNOWN]: Your solidy seven, why can't we just ban Syria as a as a Osharia law as a cult.
1:34:19
[UNKNOWN]: Well, you know, so, I mean, Russia does not not sharia law.
1:34:23
[UNKNOWN]: They ban cults.
1:34:25
[UNKNOWN]: Russia has no problem ban.
1:34:27
[UNKNOWN]: They ban the Jehovah's Witnesses.
1:34:30
[UNKNOWN]: We can't religious freedom.
1:34:31
[UNKNOWN]: We can't ban it as a cult.
1:34:33
[UNKNOWN]: But Trump has expressed his support of banning sharia law.
1:34:41
[UNKNOWN]: as an expressly theocratic form of government that our Constitution, in terms of its explicitness rejects.
1:34:51
[UNKNOWN]: Even although many would call our country a soft theocracy, where our foreign policy is run by what are technically known as Christian Zionists.
1:35:03
[UNKNOWN]: theology that sees Israel, the center of God's redemptive activities in the world.
1:35:12
[UNKNOWN]: And so being majority evangelical, though Catholics are catching up.
1:35:19
[UNKNOWN]: the United States is a foreign policy has been inordinately pro-Israel largely because of Christian Zionist.
1:35:25
[UNKNOWN]: That's a soft theocracy in that sense.
1:35:27
[UNKNOWN]: That's theology guiding our foreign policy.
1:35:32
[UNKNOWN]: Yes, I mean there's some practical geopolitical elements.
1:35:35
[UNKNOWN]: to supporting Israel, but nevertheless, there is also theological elements for even, I'm not a Christian Zionist, but that is what is very prominent today.
1:35:46
[UNKNOWN]: So that's subtle, but an explicit form of religious rule, like in Sharia law, that would be banned, that could easily be banned on the basis of the separation of powers.
1:36:01
[UNKNOWN]: Robo guy, if the DSA didn't show up, we would have had more trouble.
1:36:06
[UNKNOWN]: But they're the one thing jeopardizing Democrats' chances will note down, be their undoing.
1:36:11
[UNKNOWN]: Love your optimism, Robo guy.
1:36:13
[UNKNOWN]: That's an excellent, that's awesome.
1:36:15
[UNKNOWN]: That's exactly what we need to think.
1:36:16
[UNKNOWN]: You're not alone.
1:36:18
[UNKNOWN]: That is the thesis of James Carvelle.
1:36:20
[UNKNOWN]: James Carvelle thinks that we are in the process.
1:36:23
[UNKNOWN]: The Democrats were in the process of beating the Republicans.
1:36:28
[UNKNOWN]: A hands-down is going to be his historic midterm.
1:36:31
[UNKNOWN]: Like he was wrong just because of all the redistricting.
1:36:33
[UNKNOWN]: There's just too many solid red districts now.
1:36:36
[UNKNOWN]: Again, there's only about 21 toss-ups seats, which means the Democrats' ceiling is in the mid-2020s.
1:36:44
[UNKNOWN]: So there's, there's no, there's no more 1994s or 2010s or even 2018s at this point.
1:36:52
[UNKNOWN]: But, but he believes DSA candidates have destroyed their chances.
1:36:57
[UNKNOWN]: He said nobody's going to be voting for somebody who thinks that prisons are concentration camps and that we need to abolish ice and defund the place.
1:37:05
[UNKNOWN]: No one's going to open up our borders and defund completely defund Israel.
1:37:10
[UNKNOWN]: No one's going there.
1:37:11
[UNKNOWN]: Sorry.
1:37:12
[UNKNOWN]: Except for the radical 20% but the other 80% the billmar Mars the John Federmins the van Joneses I've been very surprised of van Jones coming out on CNN and just saying Elfayette again What's this and why am I forgetting his name Elfayette there it is Elfayette.
1:37:34
[UNKNOWN]: I knew it was
1:37:35
[UNKNOWN]: somewhere in there.
1:37:36
[UNKNOWN]: I do all say it is a radical and he's a not and he's very dangerous.
1:37:42
[UNKNOWN]: So you're absolutely right.
1:37:43
[UNKNOWN]: I think they they may be there.
1:37:44
[UNKNOWN]: I'm doing.
1:37:47
[UNKNOWN]: Sean, honey, the mask finally comes off like the Carlson is now endorsing radical Democrats.
1:37:54
[UNKNOWN]: What is his mental challenge?
1:37:57
[UNKNOWN]: Don't lead the witness.
1:38:02
[UNKNOWN]: I don't know.
1:38:03
[UNKNOWN]: I don't know, I've never met Tucker.
1:38:04
[UNKNOWN]: I know people who know Tucker, but I've never met Tucker.
1:38:10
[UNKNOWN]: I've talked with some of those who know Tucker, and all I could say is I think the best assessment that I got is he's going through a bit of a spiritual crisis right now.
1:38:22
[UNKNOWN]: And he believes that now this could be very much a very selfish career move where he's trying to that's what I think Alex Jones is doing and others are doing.
1:38:37
[UNKNOWN]: Again, I think I don't know don't know these people.
1:38:41
[UNKNOWN]: I purposely don't know these people.
1:38:44
[UNKNOWN]: I've had
1:38:45
[UNKNOWN]: I've been, I was, well, I just, I just say I purposely don't precise it because I just think the podcast world.
1:38:53
[UNKNOWN]: There aren't a lot of convictions.
1:38:56
[UNKNOWN]: I think there's a lot of business models, but not a lot of convictions.
1:39:02
[UNKNOWN]: And they're trying to get ahead of the curve of the post-Trump MAGA world.
1:39:10
[UNKNOWN]: And they think, this is that.
1:39:12
[UNKNOWN]: They think the post-Trump MAGA world is uniting the populist left with the populist right.
1:39:18
[UNKNOWN]: And my thing is good luck in that when your populist left is third worldist.
1:39:24
[UNKNOWN]: So Tucker claims that he is a lover of Western civilization, but then he is increasingly siding with a political movement that sees Western civilization as the greatest evil on the planet.
1:39:40
[UNKNOWN]: Right, so this is what I mean, this isn't about this isn't about
1:39:46
[UNKNOWN]: left and right uniting against the establishment, the people versus the establishment, that is populism, that is true.
1:39:53
[UNKNOWN]: We have had an are going through a populist phase where left and right don't mean as much as people versus permanent political class.
1:40:01
[UNKNOWN]: That's why the white working class that had always voted Democrat in every election since the 1980s and up defecting over to Trump, and that's how he was able to win states like Ohio and Iowa,
1:40:12
[UNKNOWN]: and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, a voted Democrat in every single election, you know, well, Ohio voted Bush, but also voted Obama twice.
1:40:28
[UNKNOWN]: They defected because, again, they weren't looking at him as a Republican or they were seeing him as their man, a pro union man against the establishment pro working class against an establishment that had abandoned the working class, a liberal globalist establishment.
1:40:44
[UNKNOWN]: that's certainly operative today as well, but increasingly now with the rise of the DSA, it's not the people versus permanent political class, it's not left versus right.
1:40:54
[UNKNOWN]: It's increasingly patriots versus communists.
1:40:58
[UNKNOWN]: It's pro-Americans versus post-Americans, anti-Americans.
1:41:04
[UNKNOWN]: And so we'll see what kind of,
1:41:08
[UNKNOWN]: amalgamation, he can try to construct.
1:41:10
[UNKNOWN]: But at this point, these guys don't seem to think, they don't seem to realize who their their bedfellows are about to be.
1:41:20
[UNKNOWN]: These are third worldists.
1:41:22
[UNKNOWN]: And third worldists start with the premise that Western civilization is the greatest evil
1:41:39
[UNKNOWN]: Politically and correct forever or Dr. Steve.
1:41:41
[UNKNOWN]: I'm in a dark abysmal place right now.
1:41:43
[UNKNOWN]: My abundance of sarcastic humorous satires.
1:41:46
[UNKNOWN]: All of a sudden, dried up on me.
1:41:48
[UNKNOWN]: I haven't triggered liberals in a coma.
1:41:54
[UNKNOWN]: I think you may just have.
1:41:55
[UNKNOWN]: Maybe we got some in the chat.
1:41:56
[UNKNOWN]: Maybe you just did politically corrected forever.
1:41:59
[UNKNOWN]: That's awesome.
1:42:00
[UNKNOWN]: There.
1:42:01
[UNKNOWN]: I think you'll snap out of it in the next five minutes.
1:42:04
[UNKNOWN]: I have a sense you already did.
1:42:09
[UNKNOWN]: Hollow 8 9 2 3.
1:42:11
[UNKNOWN]: I don't understand North Carolina voters Republicans control the legislative lead voter registration to have to US senators to Republican right centers, but Cooper's going to win the race after he hung Western North Carolina out to dry out for clean.
1:42:23
[UNKNOWN]: Well, we'll see.
1:42:24
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, um, this is this is your, you're absolutely right.
1:42:28
[UNKNOWN]: I'm with you hallway.
1:42:29
[UNKNOWN]: Um, this is I'm a little.
1:42:34
[UNKNOWN]: So the pro-populist movement in the Republican Party, I am generally with.
1:42:42
[UNKNOWN]: But every once in a while, they nominate someone who's just a dud.
1:42:46
[UNKNOWN]: And it looks like Mike Waltley is a dud.
1:42:48
[UNKNOWN]: I just haven't seen anything from him yet.
1:42:50
[UNKNOWN]: And you do have to prove your bonafines if you want to get money.
1:42:55
[UNKNOWN]: Now, he should be able to get it because he was the co-chairman of the RNC.
1:42:58
[UNKNOWN]: Did a great job in 24 with Laura Trump as the other co-chair.
1:43:05
[UNKNOWN]: But yeah, he's just, and I expect the polls to, to tighten as we get closer, but for precisely these sort of things, Roy Cooper, it's not just that, Roy Cooper is going to be a vote for wealthness.
1:43:19
[UNKNOWN]: He's going to be a vote to impeach.
1:43:20
[UNKNOWN]: He's going to be a vote at Franta, Trump.
1:43:24
[UNKNOWN]: Now again, all the anti-Trumpers in North Carolina, the Durham Triangle and Charlotte and all that,
1:43:34
[UNKNOWN]: no, get the hell out here.
1:43:36
[UNKNOWN]: So there's plenty against Roy Cooper that can run, but he's a popular governor like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and popularity and that name recognition is carrying him through.
1:43:50
[UNKNOWN]: We'll see if it carries him through the, the, uh,
1:43:53
[UNKNOWN]: the finish line.
1:43:54
[UNKNOWN]: They're Republican gains in voter registration aren't big enough yet.
1:43:59
[UNKNOWN]: Now, when they start hitting gains like nine, ten, seven, eight, nine, ten percent than it's over.
1:44:04
[UNKNOWN]: That's what we're starting to see in Arizona.
1:44:06
[UNKNOWN]: That's why I still think Andy Biggs has a really good shot there.
1:44:10
[UNKNOWN]: But they start hitting eight, nine percent, which they will, which they will in the next
1:44:24
[UNKNOWN]: Texas on LaShah on a video yesterday, I think.
1:44:27
[UNKNOWN]: You kind of offhandedly said Trump may not even care of Democrats take the house.
1:44:31
[UNKNOWN]: Can you expand on that yet?
1:44:32
[UNKNOWN]: Has he set things up so that they'll just keep running or have a contingency plan?
1:44:36
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, so what I meant by that, I, there are a few others talking about this.
1:44:43
[UNKNOWN]: So right now, the house, all of the major spending that Trump wanted has been secured.
1:44:52
[UNKNOWN]: up till twenty twenty nine.
1:44:54
[UNKNOWN]: If I could make even pass that might even be twenty thirty two we're talking homeland security.
1:44:58
[UNKNOWN]: We're talking ice.
1:45:00
[UNKNOWN]: You name it and that's all because of the big beautiful bill.
1:45:03
[UNKNOWN]: So he's already won in terms of a spending agenda domestic agenda in the light.
1:45:08
[UNKNOWN]: Now, of course, he wants to say back and he wants these other things of bag of enshrined in federal law.
1:45:15
[UNKNOWN]: Uh, and if he loses a house, he's not going to get that by by this stretch.
1:45:19
[UNKNOWN]: Imagine again.
1:45:19
[UNKNOWN]: We're already finding He's he's running all these roadblocks in the Senate.
1:45:23
[UNKNOWN]: John Thunes case for like, well, that just means You got a vote for more Republicans because the Democrats are standing in the way.
1:45:32
[UNKNOWN]: No, John.
1:45:34
[UNKNOWN]: No.
1:45:35
[UNKNOWN]: You have the majority.
1:45:37
[UNKNOWN]: You can fire the parliamentarian.
1:45:39
[UNKNOWN]: There's no excuse for you guys not passing the save out.
1:45:42
[UNKNOWN]: But regardless,
1:45:44
[UNKNOWN]: nice spin, nice drive.
1:45:45
[UNKNOWN]: But yeah.
1:45:47
[UNKNOWN]: So what Trump then with that in mind, what Trump has found is even with a relatively
1:45:56
[UNKNOWN]: bogged down Congress, he's able to get so much done through the revivocation of article two powers.
1:46:03
[UNKNOWN]: And what he had to do, so he had to destroy the administrative state.
1:46:11
[UNKNOWN]: And what is it?
1:46:12
[UNKNOWN]: What was it?
1:46:13
[UNKNOWN]: The handy decision.
1:46:14
[UNKNOWN]: I'm trying to remember there was Supreme Court decision that basically gave him
1:46:18
[UNKNOWN]: complete authority to overhaul the administrative state.
1:46:22
[UNKNOWN]: Now he's he is unleashed the power of the presidential pen, the EO, and he's able to pretty much do whatever he wants, especially and yeah, you'll get a judge who are there, but most of his EOs are crushing it, and they've gone on challenge.
1:46:38
[UNKNOWN]: and he can also declare national emergencies to get whatever he wants done.
1:46:45
[UNKNOWN]: So in many respects, he doesn't care what the house does.
1:46:49
[UNKNOWN]: Or even congregate even both Senate and House does.
1:46:53
[UNKNOWN]: He's got the power, the presidency.
1:46:56
[UNKNOWN]: that he believes will go into 2028 with the J.D.
1:46:59
[UNKNOWN]: Vance victory since the Democrats have no bench and also we tend to like having the same party in power to administrations in a row.
1:47:11
[UNKNOWN]: So all of that said he doesn't he doesn't think he needs Congress.
1:47:17
[UNKNOWN]: in order to govern successfully.
1:47:19
[UNKNOWN]: What he needs Congress for is to enshrine his governance into permanent law so it doesn't get overturned if God forbid a Democrat gets an in 2028.
1:47:33
[UNKNOWN]: Thomas Saviano, ready to equal politics projected the Democrats to get 219 seats in the house, even though the GFP has the registration advantage.
1:47:41
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, no, again, I think Jack is very sober in his assessment.
1:47:47
[UNKNOWN]: And what he is saying there is even if they pull off what is usually the inevitable.
1:47:56
[UNKNOWN]: Right, which is the party in power loses seats.
1:48:01
[UNKNOWN]: We only have two 18, right?
1:48:03
[UNKNOWN]: So if we lose one seat, we're done.
1:48:06
[UNKNOWN]: So in 2018, we'd be down 40 seats.
1:48:11
[UNKNOWN]: Even if the Democrats pull off what is historically almost inevitable, only three exceptions to that.
1:48:18
[UNKNOWN]: Still, they only walk away with one or two seats.
1:48:21
[UNKNOWN]: That's it.
1:48:23
[UNKNOWN]: that there is going to be no blue way.
1:48:25
[UNKNOWN]: There will be a few contests going their way that flips the house by one, two, three seats.
1:48:35
[UNKNOWN]: I do, I think they're at a, I tend to be, I agree with Red Eagle.
1:48:41
[UNKNOWN]: I, Jack is his name.
1:48:43
[UNKNOWN]: I tend to agree, I think they have a ceiling of about 220.
1:48:48
[UNKNOWN]: I think Republicans also have a ceiling and again, the redistricting was working both ways.
1:48:52
[UNKNOWN]: We have to wait to, well, we have to wait till, bunch of these idiot red state legislatures like Indiana and Ohio and Louisiana.
1:49:02
[UNKNOWN]: Get their in their South Carolina.
1:49:03
[UNKNOWN]: Get their ass to gear and gear and and give us real maps and get rid of their stupid blues.
1:49:09
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, again, New England doesn't have a single blue district, not one play the same
1:49:19
[UNKNOWN]: So, no, I think until that happens, we both have ceilings in the mid to low 20s.
1:49:28
[UNKNOWN]: Two 20s.
1:49:30
[UNKNOWN]: And so, based on what he's seeing, that's where we are.
1:49:35
[UNKNOWN]: Now, if that's where we are right now,
1:49:38
[UNKNOWN]: that's where we are right now.
1:49:39
[UNKNOWN]: If we're at the beginning of September and the prognosis, the projection is 2019 for the Democrats, we got this.
1:49:48
[UNKNOWN]: We got a real chance of turning that around and picking off that seat and keeping it to 18 or ourselves getting it to 2019 to 2020.
1:50:00
[UNKNOWN]: So I think that's actually good news.
1:50:05
[UNKNOWN]: Jones, since you brought out the mindset of the majority of Senate Republicans, do they know, we despise them and they're foot-ranging.
1:50:13
[UNKNOWN]: Yes, they do.
1:50:14
[UNKNOWN]: They don't care.
1:50:15
[UNKNOWN]: They do.
1:50:16
[UNKNOWN]: Because they'll, they know how to pander to you during election season.
1:50:20
[UNKNOWN]: But no, I'm with you.
1:50:21
[UNKNOWN]: It's it's just, they're, they're, they're, they're beyond horrific.
1:50:26
[UNKNOWN]: They're politicians.
1:50:27
[UNKNOWN]: This is what politicians do.
1:50:28
[UNKNOWN]: It's horrible stuff.
1:50:29
[UNKNOWN]: But
1:50:30
[UNKNOWN]: I'm with you, Joe.
1:50:31
[UNKNOWN]: No, they know they know we do not like them.
1:50:33
[UNKNOWN]: And, you know, they're just trying to write out this MAGA wave.
1:50:37
[UNKNOWN]: They think it's temporary.
1:50:39
[UNKNOWN]: It's not.
1:50:39
[UNKNOWN]: It's permanent.
1:50:40
[UNKNOWN]: It's the wave of the future.
1:50:41
[UNKNOWN]: That's why Trump continues to endorse because the more candidates he endorses, the more the Republican party is a whole in terms of the politicians have to acquiesce to MAGA.
1:50:53
[UNKNOWN]: They have to bend the need to MAGA.
1:50:59
[UNKNOWN]: Uh, Jenny's a Tucker are you need to Tucker the remedy is flood local seats with Patriots amen amen exactly what we have to do exactly right everybody get involved and and then we'll have a cliff Maloney on the next couple of weeks he'll be talking about he's a Pennsylvania chase it'll be talking about what you can do if you want to go and volunteer with them.
1:51:22
[UNKNOWN]: to go knock on doors, you want to do hundreds of thousands of those doors to get people to the polls.
1:51:27
[UNKNOWN]: Again, you're not knocking the convince anybody, you're knocking on doors of Republicans who request ballots.
1:51:33
[UNKNOWN]: These are Republicans who's a patriot.
1:51:35
[UNKNOWN]: And if you work with Clevver,
1:51:37
[UNKNOWN]: Um, and you get a stipend in all that sort of stuff though, it takes care of everything.
1:51:41
[UNKNOWN]: You work with Cliff, all you're doing is going to Republican stores and say, hey, we saw you got a ballot.
1:51:47
[UNKNOWN]: Did you fill it out yet?
1:51:48
[UNKNOWN]: Have you sent it back yet?
1:51:49
[UNKNOWN]: If you haven't sent it, oh, yep, you're already did great.
1:51:51
[UNKNOWN]: We're going to take you to your name on the flood.
1:51:52
[UNKNOWN]: If you haven't said, can I come back in a couple of days just to make sure everything's okay?
1:51:56
[UNKNOWN]: You know, that kind of stuff.
1:51:57
[UNKNOWN]: So, making sure there's low to no prop voters are getting in their ballots early.
1:52:01
[UNKNOWN]: So, that are our,
1:52:04
[UNKNOWN]: die-hard voters that dominate election day, finish the job.
1:52:11
[UNKNOWN]: Thomas, Maloney, Thornton, Maloney, why does he Thomas?
1:52:16
[UNKNOWN]: FYI, Harvard Harris Funnel poll was Harris plus two, yeah, congressional ballot, Demmercratt plus two on election night, 2024.
1:52:25
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, and they were off on that one.
1:52:27
[UNKNOWN]: They were off on 22, by three, but again, that fits the pattern.
1:52:30
[UNKNOWN]: That's the interesting pattern that
1:52:33
[UNKNOWN]: Patrick Oophini came up and found that polls were generally speaking off by four in favor of Democrats over the last, what was it?
1:52:45
[UNKNOWN]: It was 3600 polls over the last four years or so, and then Kwanis Insight said, you know, if we factor that in, if we factor that in,
1:52:58
[UNKNOWN]: the shift to the left, then Democrats really are only up by two or three.
1:53:04
[UNKNOWN]: Now, if quite a sinceides correct here, and they still deferred to Democrats, then possibly Republicans are up three or four.
1:53:13
[UNKNOWN]: So that's the game you're playing with polls in the sense, so you're just constantly trying to, you're constantly trying to get the turbulence
1:53:26
[UNKNOWN]: uh, to steady out around past indicators.
1:53:30
[UNKNOWN]: But very good.
1:53:31
[UNKNOWN]: Thank you, Thorne, for that.
1:53:34
[UNKNOWN]: Politically incorrect for every doctor Steve that Creek Democrat Terry Sean's was conducting a different of poll survey with Nick Shirley, pun and homophone intended poll survey.
1:53:48
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, gosh.
1:53:52
[UNKNOWN]: Uh, I think I get it.
1:53:54
[UNKNOWN]: I'm a little slow at these things.
1:53:59
[UNKNOWN]: The Maria Bartaramo as our next press secretary, I've seen that.
1:54:04
[UNKNOWN]: I've seen that.
1:54:05
[UNKNOWN]: That would be very interesting.
1:54:06
[UNKNOWN]: Would it not?
1:54:07
[UNKNOWN]: And I believe she's still getting paid from Fox.
1:54:09
[UNKNOWN]: It's kind of like a Tucker situation where they take you down.
1:54:14
[UNKNOWN]: They knock you out.
1:54:17
[UNKNOWN]: but you're still getting paid it's a pay to play I guess they call it our pay and play contract Titus Maximus in Texas we call the comedy center wannabe telephorico voted for packs in the primary We'll vote for me again amen.
1:54:33
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, he's a good man Ken pack.
1:54:34
[UNKNOWN]: I was when I was in at Mara logo.
1:54:36
[UNKNOWN]: He was there.
1:54:37
[UNKNOWN]: He's a great man very very decent modest dude and Yeah, only a rhino Could be dissatisfied with him
1:54:48
[UNKNOWN]: Max Tien, how are we looking over to Oregon?
1:54:52
[UNKNOWN]: Max Tien, we still on track to get a Republican governor.
1:54:54
[UNKNOWN]: I have not looked at the polls since my video, it's probably about a month ago.
1:55:00
[UNKNOWN]: So I have to, is it draws in?
1:55:01
[UNKNOWN]: I'm trying to remember, dragon.
1:55:02
[UNKNOWN]: I'm gonna have to, I have to refresh myself with that to see.
1:55:07
[UNKNOWN]: It's gonna be hard.
1:55:08
[UNKNOWN]: I'm not gonna lie to you.
1:55:09
[UNKNOWN]: It's gonna be very hard.
1:55:11
[UNKNOWN]: Again, voter registration is a bitch, so it's going to be very, very hard to win in an overwhelming, overwhelmingly Democrat state.
1:55:21
[UNKNOWN]: And we're talking obviously, Multnomah County, we're not talking about Oregon as a whole.
1:55:25
[UNKNOWN]: Oregon as, as geographically is rich, dense Republican territories.
1:55:31
[UNKNOWN]: it's molten McCowny.
1:55:33
[UNKNOWN]: It's there are a couple of others that if you got rid of them, the Republican would win by 10 points in every election.
1:55:39
[UNKNOWN]: So, but it's it's overcoming Portland, that's that's the hard, that's the hard ask.
1:55:49
[UNKNOWN]: Ray Ranger Bear, it's hard to win when you can't cheat.
1:55:52
[UNKNOWN]: Amen.
1:55:53
[UNKNOWN]: Amen.
1:55:53
[UNKNOWN]: I like that.
1:55:54
[UNKNOWN]: It's hard to win when you can't cheat.
1:55:56
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, if you're a Democrat,
1:56:00
[UNKNOWN]: Rubbo guy with JD Vance nor Trump, not endorsing Thune for Senate leader.
1:56:05
[UNKNOWN]: He may be, he may be in 2028 and I wouldn't, I wouldn't doubt it.
1:56:11
[UNKNOWN]: The Trump has no problem getting a look.
1:56:13
[UNKNOWN]: John Corneon was supposed to be Senately or he was one of the two or three up for for Senate leader position.
1:56:22
[UNKNOWN]: And he just got his butt handed to him.
1:56:24
[UNKNOWN]: He lost by 30 points in the last in the last primary.
1:56:31
[UNKNOWN]: ID 3565.
1:56:32
[UNKNOWN]: I believe that Atheist attacker Carlson's last true thing he said was when he said he was attacked by a demon in the night he's been off ever since as the demon has been in control.
1:56:43
[UNKNOWN]: Oh, I don't know if he's an atheist.
1:56:45
[UNKNOWN]: I don't I don't want to I don't want to say that.
1:56:51
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, that was an odd thing from to say.
1:56:53
[UNKNOWN]: It was just the explicitness on that.
1:57:00
[UNKNOWN]: And I certainly believe in demonic warfare and demonic possession.
1:57:07
[UNKNOWN]: No question I've done videos on it.
1:57:09
[UNKNOWN]: As a matter of fact, exorcisms have been on the rise in the West.
1:57:16
[UNKNOWN]: over the last decade or so, but yeah, there's something, again, you can't what he's putting forward right now is intellectually incoherent.
1:57:29
[UNKNOWN]: You can't be pro-America and anti-Western.
1:57:33
[UNKNOWN]: And that's what he's doing when he's embracing kind of this Islamism.
1:57:40
[UNKNOWN]: Even the Islam he's embracing with
1:57:44
[UNKNOWN]: Islam is at a, is going through a bit of a civil war.
1:57:47
[UNKNOWN]: Yes, there are those who are embracing the third worldism, Zeneb Rubu of the Hudson Institute who's been writing about this.
1:57:54
[UNKNOWN]: She's very good.
1:57:55
[UNKNOWN]: Yes, there are, there are the Mamdonis and the Elsayeds and all.
1:58:00
[UNKNOWN]: who are embracing this third world as a death to the West, all that sort of stuff.
1:58:05
[UNKNOWN]: But there's a Holy, I mean Saudi Arabia, UAE, Syria, and its new administration, Bahrain.
1:58:13
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, there's a whole host.
1:58:16
[UNKNOWN]: of Islamic nations that are embracing the West right now.
1:58:22
[UNKNOWN]: They're embracing the civilizationalist magaism that they're seeing happen.
1:58:27
[UNKNOWN]: And they want to tap into the networked multi-polarity that Trump is setting up all over the world and taking over the choke points, major energy choke points in the like.
1:58:37
[UNKNOWN]: So Tucker's just giving us, he represents a marginal Islam for Islam as a whole, and then that marginal Islam is anti-West, and then he claims to be anti-American.
1:58:49
[UNKNOWN]: He's opposing Trump because Trump has supposedly betrayed America first.
1:58:53
[UNKNOWN]: You cannot be pro-America and anti-West.
1:58:57
[UNKNOWN]: It's an absolutely incoherent view.
1:59:02
[UNKNOWN]: For honest, Dr. C.V. Z.
1:59:03
[UNKNOWN]: Administration executing a belt to ask strategy.
1:59:10
[UNKNOWN]: When I see, when we talk to your politics, I see belt, I think China, right?
1:59:15
[UNKNOWN]: Belt and Road Initiative.
1:59:18
[UNKNOWN]: Is he executing a belt to ask right?
1:59:21
[UNKNOWN]: Yes.
1:59:21
[UNKNOWN]: It sounds like it.
1:59:23
[UNKNOWN]: I mean, he knew Carnegie wasn't going to cooperate, and he's just basically humiliating him in front of the world at this point.
1:59:30
[UNKNOWN]: And that's that gang.
1:59:31
[UNKNOWN]: All right, make sure you stick with the channel because I am your back porch professor of the weekend and he breaking news.
1:59:37
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1:59:41
[UNKNOWN]: Love you guys.
1:59:41
[UNKNOWN]: Have a wonderful weekend.
1:59:43
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1:59:44
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