Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Prop Bets | Super Bowl LVIII

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Prop Bets | Super Bowl LVIII · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our Tuesday Super Bowl Preview episode. I am Chad Millman,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Listen.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: We've been doing some incredible analysis all across the Action
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Network the past ten days. Loads of props, opinions on
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: the sides, a steady stream of support for value on betting.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Will there be overtime? Yes, that one of our guests,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, has been promoting.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: All week long.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: On Thursday, Simon and I will finalize our bets. Today.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: We are going to dig very deep on mostly props
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with two of the most respected player projectionists in the business.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: First up, Chris ray BONI just wrapped up his sixth
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: season of the oft mentioned weekly NFL betting preview on
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. Alongside the King of Degeneration, Stucky.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Raybon also is a regular on our Sunday morning panel show,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Convince Me. We're also joined, as I said, by Luck
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Rankings architect Nick Giffen. Along with the Sunday six Pack
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: and Raybon and Stucky might be the second most referenced
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: brand and name in the Favorites Universe the multi Universe.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Nick is part of our predictive analytics team and more importantly,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: host of the coolest show We do Bet What Happens
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Live with Doctor Nick. At the end of today's episode,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: we will announce the winner of the Favorites Podcast Bet
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: three six five super Bowl prop contest will reveal which
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: listeners prop Bet is now up and ready for wagering.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: On BET three sixty five plus.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: We'll hear from the winner of the contest himself, Matt
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Mitchell sat down with the winner. Before we get to
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Chris and Nick. Let's bring in my co host, my bff,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, professional better back on the East Coast,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Eto, So I'm in chat.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: How are we doing?
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: Brother?
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Brother?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: You've been on the East Coast for about forty eight
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: hours maybe, and you've already caught a cold.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: If I was gonna say if that, yeah, as soon
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: as I got back to New Jersey. I think it
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: was twenty eight degrees when I landed, and obviously I
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: wasn't ready for it. I am sick. Thank god it's
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: not COVID, but yeah, it's it's rough when you're sick.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: And you're getting used to back to being cold.
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: Chat.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: I think you remember whenever you go in you call back,
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: it's always like, ah, why don't we live in the Northeast,
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: But this is this is the place we love, the
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: place we like to.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Live, Simon. I usually at some point in the winter
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: just give up all pretense and by seven pm I'm
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: under the covers. And last night was the night. It
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: was seven pm, Like I finished dinner. I think my
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: kid was out. Stacey had just gotten home, and I'm like.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Growing up.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: She's like already I was in bed and honestly, god,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: my limbs were cold until eleven thirty, like just freezing.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And I, by the way, I don't even think I
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: left my house yesterday, that's how uncomfortable I was. My
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: statement was like, just turn up the heat. I'm like,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I can just get in bed, it'll be fine.
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: Well, if you're gonna if you're gonna be a hermit,
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: you know what you need to do. You need to
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: go get those new Apple goggles. I wouldn't got them, Chad.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: It is true changing. It is the weirdest thing ever,
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: but it is the future is now, dude.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: That's a whole separate podcast we're going to talk about.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I've been wondering who is going to buy those. As
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  Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
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• 4:52
  Speaker 2: I liked it.
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  Speaker 1: As a reminder, catch.
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  Speaker 2: Every episode of The Favorites.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Live on YouTube for those enjoying it on YouTube. Don't
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  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. All right, we got Raybond, we
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: got Kiffin. They are masters of their craft. We're gonna
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: go through four or five picks, whatever it takes. Ray Bond,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: You're up first. Give the people what they want, tell
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: them what they want to hear. What side are you
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: on in the game.
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: So, Chad, so y'all. I am on the Kansas City
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: Chiefs plus two, And I think there are a lot
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: of different small things that add up to where if
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: you just look at the full season numbers, you're gonna
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: get San Francisco should be the obvious favorite, and they are,
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: but I think the market's underrating a few things. I
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: think the biggest thing is that in that championship game,
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Tony Hardman, sky Moore justin ross for their wide receivers,
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: they played one combined snap outside of the kneel downs,
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: and that was Mikole Hardman getting one snap. Those guys
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: have counted for eleven drops, seven interceptions on the year,
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: you know, completely inefficient in terms of a yards per
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: play bas It's four fumbles, two game losing plays, both
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: by Kadarius Tony. So if you look at Mahomes. His
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: yards per attempt just removing those four guys goes from
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: seven to seven and a half. Half a yard in
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: attempt is that's correlated directly with point differential. His interception
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: rate nearly cuts in half. And then the San Francisco
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: pass defense, since Mufungo went down on third downs, their
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: bottom three pass defense, like not a lot of people
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: are talking about that. They really struggled. And then you
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: also look at Okay, well Pacheco, he played ninety three
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: percent of the snatch last week's probably gonna do that again.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: He averages four and a half yards per carry, just
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: under all other running backs that touched the ball for
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs this year averaged just under three and a
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: half yards per carry. So I don't think this Chiefs
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: offense is like everyone's saying this, you know, it's like
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: it's not the usual Chiefs offense. They're not good, but
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: they really trimmed all the fat and so I expect
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: them to do that again. And then on the other
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: side of the ball, Brot Perdy, you know, his four
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: worst games came in times where you know, Deebo is
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: hurt for part of them. I think Trent Williams is.
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: Hurt, but.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: Nine of his twelve picks and eleven of his twenty
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: one turnover Where these bros came in four games and
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: it was that Cleveland game, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. What
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: did they all have? Great defensive coordinator's Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Anarrumo who famously shut down Mahomes, Mike McDonald, the hottest
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: head coaching candidate, Steve Smagnolo might be better than all
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: those guys. Remember last year everyone was worried about Kansas
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: City's run Dy right come up against Philly number one
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: run offense. They held him to three point six yards
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: of carry in the Super Bowl on thirty two carries.
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: So I trust Spagnolo here. I think we should too.
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: And I mean Mahomes is a dog ten to one
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: and one against the spread, covering by seven and a
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: half points per game in the postseason. He's lost three
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: times in seventeen playoff games, twice to Tom Brady, once
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: to Joe Burrow and kind of like a freak game
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: where they screwed up before the end of the first
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: half and didn't get any points when they were on
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: like the one yard line and that's all his losses,
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: so now he's an underdog against rock Perdy. I'll take
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: the points all day.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Love it, love it, love it, Simon. You and I
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: are going to go so deep on this on Thursday,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: breaking down this game and the sides and the total.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: But here's a question I have for you before we
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: get to the next bet, which is we firmly believed
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: in the Ravens in the AFC title game. Well you did,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: and partially because we expected the Ravens to do the
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: right thing, which was run the ball, run the ball,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: run the ball. Raybun just made a really good point.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: No Justin Ross, no Mikol Hardman, no Kadarius Tony, Like
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: they basically sat every guy who is terrible on the Chiefs.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: They finally got around to that was that a one
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: time thing? Can we expect them to do again? What
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: is your take on that part of the scenario, us
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: betting on a side in which we have to count
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: on the coaches not.
• 9:17
  Speaker 6: Screwing it up. I agree with them.
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: Medescin feels like the Chiefs have found their identity in
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: the playoffs, right on offense, where it's like Mahomes, he's
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: not here to be everyone's buddy anymore. Like he was
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: nice to all these receivers all season. He never went
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: to the media about them. He kept trying to give
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: them touches and looks down the playoffs, he's kind of
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: cold blooded. Right, It's like, if I'm gonna go down,
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go down my best guys. And his best
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: guys is who Kelsey and Rice. So it seems like
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: he's kind of shifted his focus where it's like I
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: don't mind forcing into my best guys if I know
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: I can trust them, and you know, we're gonna break
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: it down. So, like you said on Thursday, but it's
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: like the matchups, what they can do on offense, I mean,
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: Chris already nailed it. Like there's a bunch of stuff
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: they can do that can counter what the foy n
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Ires want to do. And mean, you talked about it
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: last week, like this foreign ares defense, we both agreed
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: we don't think they're as good as people perceived, right,
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: Like there's a bunch of things you can attack on
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: this defense that during the regular season they kind of
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: got away with. The playoffs, you don't get away with that,
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: especially now we're given two weeks to Andy Reid to
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: prepare for this defense. So again, it all skews towards
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: this Chiefs team. The more you dive into it, the
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: more it feels a good skews to taking this plus
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: two Nick, do we.
• 10:21
  Speaker 7: Want to talk about the luck rankings?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about whatever you want to talk about.
• 10:25
  Speaker 7: I think we should go to the luck rankings because, Okay,
• 10:27
  Speaker 7: I'm not betting the over on this game, but this
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: game is a luck over. It's important to at least
• 10:32
  Speaker 7: lead off with that. Because we just talked about the
• 10:34
  Speaker 7: side here, let's talk about the total. This game has
• 10:37
  Speaker 7: a luck total of plus two point six, which puts
• 10:40
  Speaker 7: it in luck over territory for the playoffs. And look
• 10:43
  Speaker 7: the luck rankings this year when we look at all
• 10:46
  Speaker 7: the sides and the totals, when it met certain thresholds
• 10:49
  Speaker 7: at certain points in the season, we would either bet
• 10:51
  Speaker 7: on a side if it was, you know, a luck
• 10:54
  Speaker 7: difference of twenty four or more, a luck gap of
• 10:56
  Speaker 7: fifty percent or more, or luck total if it hit
• 10:59
  Speaker 7: certain plus or minus thresholds at different times of the year.
• 11:02
  Speaker 7: The luck rankings went fifty thirty and three on the
• 11:06
  Speaker 7: Luck Rankings picks in the regular season, which is sixty
• 11:10
  Speaker 7: two and a half percent, and that's against closing lines, right,
• 11:13
  Speaker 7: So the luck rankings are beating closing lines in an
• 11:16
  Speaker 7: eighty three game sample size, and so far in the
• 11:18
  Speaker 7: playoffs they're right there too. We said fifty to thirty. Well,
• 11:21
  Speaker 7: if you just buy those by ten, five and three,
• 11:23
  Speaker 7: that's what we are in the playoffs. So sixty two
• 11:25
  Speaker 7: and a half percent in the playoffs as well, just
• 11:28
  Speaker 7: based off luck rankings picks versus closing lines, and so,
• 11:32
  Speaker 7: like I said, this is a luck total plus two
• 11:34
  Speaker 7: point six in the playoffs. That's enough to be a
• 11:37
  Speaker 7: luck over. Normally we want at least five in the
• 11:40
  Speaker 7: regular season. But because we have even more data, right
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: we accumulate weeks thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, et cetera, we
• 11:46
  Speaker 7: can start to narrow those thresholds down even further to
• 11:49
  Speaker 7: show what truly is luck from variants, and luck totals
• 11:54
  Speaker 7: above plus one point six are ten and three to
• 11:58
  Speaker 7: the over the last six years in the playoffs, and
• 12:00
  Speaker 7: luck totals below minus one point six, so that one
• 12:03
  Speaker 7: point six number is pretty key, are twenty two and
• 12:06
  Speaker 7: seven to the under last six years in the playoffs.
• 12:08
  Speaker 7: So combined, if it's beyond an absolute value of one
• 12:12
  Speaker 7: point six, then it's thirty two and ten. The luck
• 12:16
  Speaker 7: totals are thirty two and ten to the respective direction
• 12:19
  Speaker 7: over the last six years. That's over seventy five percent
• 12:23
  Speaker 7: in the playoffs last six years, so pretty solid sample
• 12:27
  Speaker 7: size there to forty two games. If we just look
• 12:29
  Speaker 7: at the Super Bowl, four of the last five Super
• 12:31
  Speaker 7: Bowls have actually had luck totals below minus two and
• 12:35
  Speaker 7: a half, so there were luck unders and all four
• 12:38
  Speaker 7: of those Super Bowls did stay under. So the luck
• 12:40
  Speaker 7: rankings are four to zero in the Super Bowl. So
• 12:44
  Speaker 7: this one is.
• 12:45
  Speaker 6: A luck over right.
• 12:46
  Speaker 7: We're above that one point six number at two point
• 12:49
  Speaker 7: six even, and that's broken down by Kansas City's luck
• 12:51
  Speaker 7: team total plus two point seven five and San Francisco's
• 12:55
  Speaker 7: luck team total minus zero point one to nine. So
• 12:58
  Speaker 7: Kansas City actually makes up the bulk of this potential
• 13:01
  Speaker 7: to go over, which makes them the unlucky team in
• 13:04
  Speaker 7: this matchup. That goes right along with what Ray Bahn
• 13:07
  Speaker 7: was talking about as well. They've been slightly more unlucky
• 13:10
  Speaker 7: this year the Kansas City Chiefs have. And so when
• 13:14
  Speaker 7: I do it all out, when I do like my
• 13:16
  Speaker 7: recency weighted schedule adjusted expected scores right, and the expected
• 13:20
  Speaker 7: scores or the crux behind the luck rankings. They're saying,
• 13:24
  Speaker 7: you know, maybe a game was forty to fifteen or something,
• 13:27
  Speaker 7: but the expected score was actually thirty to twenty. Then
• 13:31
  Speaker 7: is a little closer than you know, a twenty five
• 13:34
  Speaker 7: point blowout. Maybe it only should have been a ten
• 13:35
  Speaker 7: point game. So the recent schedule justed expected scores have
• 13:41
  Speaker 7: this set around forty seven to forty seven and a half,
• 13:44
  Speaker 7: so pretty close to right in line with what's out there.
• 13:48
  Speaker 7: So I haven't made a play on the total. But
• 13:51
  Speaker 7: for the luck ranking purposes, of course, we are grading
• 13:53
  Speaker 7: this as a luck over against whatever the total close
• 13:57
  Speaker 7: is at all.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Right, couple questions. Number one why because I've already bet
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the under, and so this makes me sad because I
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: have done fairly well betting on luck overs and unders
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: this year. Historically I have been a terrible totals better.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: You can look in the app, you can see my
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: record and you can see that, like totals were not
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: a place where I was performing well except this year.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Because I just decided, if it's a luck ranking total,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I'm betting it. So I'm disappointed you've hurt my feelings. Simon,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Oh wait, what is your expected score? You said Kansas
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: City is plus two point seventy five. So where do
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: you have, like a popular prop is going to be
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Kansas City total points scored.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Where do you have it versus the market?
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so I.
• 14:50
  Speaker 7: Would break Kansas City to go over their team totals.
• 14:54
  Speaker 7: So you know, if you're looking at team totals here,
• 14:57
  Speaker 7: I think Kansas City. Instead of betting the total, why
• 15:00
  Speaker 7: don't you just take the Kansas City team total over.
• 15:04
  Speaker 7: Because when we combine the forty nine Ers defense with
• 15:07
  Speaker 7: the Kansas City Chiefs offense, what has happened is the
• 15:10
  Speaker 7: forty nine Ers have been a little lucky to hold
• 15:12
  Speaker 7: teams to below scoring compared to what was expected in
• 15:18
  Speaker 7: the games they played, just based off the play by
• 15:19
  Speaker 7: play data we ran these games over, you know, ten
• 15:23
  Speaker 7: hundred thousand times. San Francisco got a little lucky to
• 15:27
  Speaker 7: allow teams to score a little less than expected. In
• 15:29
  Speaker 7: Kansas City, on the flip side, scored a little less
• 15:33
  Speaker 7: than expected in their games. So overall, it's a combination
• 15:37
  Speaker 7: of both San Francisco's defense and Kansas City's offense that
• 15:41
  Speaker 7: just came in a little under on scoring, which means
• 15:45
  Speaker 7: versus expectation, which means if they meet expectation, we expect
• 15:49
  Speaker 7: the books will probably be setting Kansas City's team total
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: a little bit too low. So I actually think that
• 15:54
  Speaker 7: would be my favorite kind of way to play the
• 15:56
  Speaker 7: luck rankings in this game.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Simon, we've already bet the under. What are we doing here?
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: I let it ride.
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: I mean we talk all the time. You're bet in
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Super Bowl, you're betting what you believe is the game script, right,
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: You're kind of projecting out.
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: All my props are tied to it.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: It's just like last year, me and you like the
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: Eagles and the over all my bets were tied to that,
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: and same with this year. It's like, if the Chiefs
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: again they could win with this being a shootout, is
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: that likely Chad for us? No, if this becomes a shootout,
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: that's going to favor this forty nine Ers team. So yeah,
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: the way I projected out, I have it at forty six.
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: So obviously I like this number toward the under. The
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: crazy thing I thought this week was a couple of
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: really sharp books moved to forty eight and they got
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: slammed with under money. So they quickly moved back down
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: to forty seven and a half, So no surprise, your Chad.
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: The public they liked the over, the professionals like the under.
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: And it's what we talked about, right, the two best
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: scoring defenses, so we project out that these defenses played
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: pretty well in this game.
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: So yeah, the fact that I was hoping it was.
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Gonna get to forty nine or forty eight in the half,
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: and it's just it doesn't feel like it's ever going
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: to get their chat. It just feels like the professional
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: money will come in. So won't be shocked if we
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: see that's just stay at forty seven and a half
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: by the time the game kicks off.
• 17:04
  Speaker 7: And I like, I want to say to Simon's points here,
• 17:08
  Speaker 7: when it opened it forty eight, right, I said, based
• 17:11
  Speaker 7: off of my schedule adjusted expected scores and stuff, which
• 17:14
  Speaker 7: is using the Luck Rankings data, the expected scores that
• 17:17
  Speaker 7: I had around between forty seven and forty seven and
• 17:19
  Speaker 7: a half. So if you bet the opener under forty eight,
• 17:22
  Speaker 7: I would have been, you know, leaning with you guys
• 17:24
  Speaker 7: as well. So just because the Luck Rankings say over,
• 17:28
  Speaker 7: doesn't mean I'm not willing to go against my own
• 17:30
  Speaker 7: luck rankings either.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Well, that's good to know because I'm going against you
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and the luck rankings six to my stomach. So Raybon,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: it's interesting to me that Simon says all of these bets,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: you know, it ends up being the bets you like
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the most, play to the script that you expect the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: game to be. So no surprise to me that one
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: of your favorite props.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Is Patti Mahomes not to throw a pick. It's about
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: even money. I'm both sides right now, so I know
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: you like that, Chad. I know it's not convinced me,
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: but I figure I'll try to convince you to take this.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: So Mahome's interregular and interceptions you generally, you know you're
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: gonna use some large sample data too, because there is
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: a lot of kind of up and down with that.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: But regular season, Patrick Mahomes throws a pick exactly half
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: the time half of his game forty eight to ninety six.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: In the postseason that drops to four of seventeen. He's
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: thrown a pick in and he's playing some of the
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: best ball of his life. And we kind of talked
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: about it when because you're going with Kelsey and Rice,
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: like Simon mentioned, those are two pretty like low to
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: intermediate averaged up to target guys, so they're very efficient
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: targets that like Rashid Rice is a wide receiver catching
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: six balls a game, but his average up to target
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: is like five yards downfield. So Mahomes is not really
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: putting the ball in Harm's way obvious when you throw
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: to Kelsey, you're not putting the ball in harms way.
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: And then I talked about seven interceptions, you know, Mahomes
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: through fourteen on a year. Seven were to the four
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: guys that played a combined one snap last week and
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: may not play at all this week. So I don't
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: think mahomes true interception rate is being factored into the market.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: They're more just kind of looking at this year, which
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: was like a career high because of all those guys,
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: and then even lately because Mahomes, you know, they said, hey,
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: we got a wake up call after that Raider game.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: We kind of switched up our offense. We whittled it down.
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: Mahomes do hasn't had a turnover worthy throw according to PFF,
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: a turn play period that includes like fumbles or anything.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: In four games. That's the longest stretch of his career,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: including twenty eighteen when he was just playing on another
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: planet that spans you know, one hundred and thirty two
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: attempt one hundred and forty seven dropbacks and then I
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: got a rest.
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: That.
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: So, Patrick Mahomes since he came in, since he came
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: the starter, has had the most interceptions overturned by the
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: refs by five times more than any other quarterback. Like
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: it's literally like Mahomes has like fifty of these things
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: and no other quarterback has even ten. So if there's
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: anyone likely to get a little bit of help, well,
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: holden call you know, a DPI come out late that
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: overturns the pick is going to be patty. So I
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: like Mahomes not to throw a pick. I'll about this
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: up to about minus one fifty. I think it's more
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: like sixty forty that he doesn't throw a pick, and
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: the market has it pretty even right now, all.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Right, doctor Nick, before we take a break here for
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: a second, do you think that because Mahomes has played
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: so well that he plays, is he due for aggression?
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: Well, I wouldn't say he's due for regression, but I
• 20:34
  Speaker 7: would say, you know, I'm kind of in line with
• 20:36
  Speaker 7: Raybon here. I think he's probably not going to throw
• 20:40
  Speaker 7: an interception just based off of what we've seen, all
• 20:44
  Speaker 7: the things raybon matched. I mean, look at those guys
• 20:46
  Speaker 7: that he's been throwing interceptions to that aren't going to
• 20:48
  Speaker 7: be playing. I think that's a huge part of it,
• 20:50
  Speaker 7: and I do agree we need to look at his
• 20:52
  Speaker 7: longer term average to kind of get where it is.
• 20:55
  Speaker 7: So that doesn't mean he's going to throw an interception
• 20:58
  Speaker 7: or not going to throw an interception. It's all I mean,
• 21:01
  Speaker 7: you know, if we played this game at gazillion times over,
• 21:03
  Speaker 7: I always go back to that, how many times would
• 21:05
  Speaker 7: he throw an interception? And that's how I always do
• 21:07
  Speaker 7: things as the math brain here. But I do think
• 21:10
  Speaker 7: if he throws an interception, it's going to be to
• 21:13
  Speaker 7: Travarius Ward, the San Francisco forty nine ers cornerback. And
• 21:19
  Speaker 7: going to Raybond's point here about longer term rates, if
• 21:22
  Speaker 7: we look at Mahomes's career, the number one place he
• 21:26
  Speaker 7: throws interceptions above expectation is to the right side of
• 21:29
  Speaker 7: the field, shorter right side especially, and so that's where
• 21:34
  Speaker 7: Travari's Ward is covering because he's the forty nine ers
• 21:36
  Speaker 7: left cornerback, which means it'll be on the right side
• 21:39
  Speaker 7: of the Chiefs offense, so he'll be guarding Marcuez Valdez, Scantling,
• 21:42
  Speaker 7: and Justin Watson a whole lot, which are probably the
• 21:46
  Speaker 7: guys you know that are going to be more likely
• 21:49
  Speaker 7: to be picked off if mahomes is thrown their way
• 21:52
  Speaker 7: then a guy like Rashie Reis or Travis Kelcey. So
• 21:55
  Speaker 7: I like I wrote up my first bet I think
• 21:58
  Speaker 7: it was for the Super Bowl, was travarous Warden intertion
• 22:00
  Speaker 7: ten to one. That's since been met down to plus
• 22:03
  Speaker 7: seven fifty. I think I still like it little thin
• 22:05
  Speaker 7: value there at plus seven fifty. So you can like
• 22:08
  Speaker 7: both of them. You can like Mahome's not to throw
• 22:10
  Speaker 7: an interception, but then if he does, also like Trevier's
• 22:12
  Speaker 7: ward as well. So that's kind of where I'm heading.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we're always looking for ways to hedge Simon.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: United States?
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: Game Time?
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: That's right, It's Game Time. I love Game Time for
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: two reasons. They still sponsored this show. I actually also
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last
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• 22:40
  Speaker 2: No joke.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I just used game Time to buy tickets to go
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: see my alma mater, Indiana University play against Northwestern in Bloomington, Indiana.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: But I'm going to take it one step further. I'm
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: opening the game Time app right now here. From my
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: house in Connecticut, in New New York City, I can
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: get in to see professional basketball. I can see the
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• 23:11
  Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app.
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• 23:16
  Speaker 2: You deserve it.
• 23:17
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  Speaker 1: app and use code favorites for twenty dollars off your
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets lows prices guaranteed. All right, Nick,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: you just gave us a bonus with savarious Ward, give
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: us another one. You have something to say about Christian McCaffrey. Yeah,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: my favorite, my mind reading.
• 23:43
  Speaker 7: We're on the favorites. This is my favorite Super Bowl
• 23:46
  Speaker 7: prop and that is Christian McCaffrey's first carry to go
• 23:50
  Speaker 7: over three and a half yards. So we'll already either
• 23:53
  Speaker 7: have a bet one or lost, you know, within his
• 23:55
  Speaker 7: first carry of the game. But you know, if we
• 23:59
  Speaker 7: just look this year, he's cleared three and a half
• 24:01
  Speaker 7: yards on the first carry in eleven of sixteen games
• 24:04
  Speaker 7: including the playoffs this year in games where Trent Williams
• 24:07
  Speaker 7: also played. I think that's important because we want to
• 24:09
  Speaker 7: make sure we're using the relevant offensive line here. And
• 24:13
  Speaker 7: so that's the sixty eight point nine percent rate that
• 24:15
  Speaker 7: he's gone over. Now, we don't want to use a
• 24:18
  Speaker 7: sixteen carry sample size. That's not fair. So let's look
• 24:20
  Speaker 7: at a larger sample size. Let's look at all rushes
• 24:23
  Speaker 7: outside the red zone, not on fourth down with Trent
• 24:27
  Speaker 7: Williams this year. And I think that's fair because McCaffrey's
• 24:31
  Speaker 7: first carry is not going to be in the red zone.
• 24:32
  Speaker 7: Most likely, his first carry this year occurred no closer
• 24:36
  Speaker 7: than the opposing forty five yard line, and he didn't
• 24:39
  Speaker 7: have a first carry on fourth down in the last
• 24:41
  Speaker 7: several years. So I think it's a fair sample size
• 24:44
  Speaker 7: in that case. If we just look at those rushes,
• 24:46
  Speaker 7: he clears one hundred and sixteen out of two hundred
• 24:49
  Speaker 7: and seventeen times with a median of four. So already
• 24:52
  Speaker 7: the medians longer than three and a half, and that's
• 24:55
  Speaker 7: fifty three point five percent. That equates the minus one fifteen.
• 24:59
  Speaker 7: But I do you think that's maybe like the worst
• 25:01
  Speaker 7: case scenario, this number should be his minus one fifteen.
• 25:04
  Speaker 7: But I think if we narrow it down even further,
• 25:05
  Speaker 7: we'll see it should be probably closer to minus one
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: fifty if we look at the scripted plays, right, So
• 25:11
  Speaker 7: that's very often like the first fifteen or so offensive plays,
• 25:15
  Speaker 7: and I've trimmed it down to the first twelve offensive plays,
• 25:17
  Speaker 7: allowing for the fact that there could be a penalty
• 25:19
  Speaker 7: or two that kind of negates a play that would
• 25:21
  Speaker 7: have been scripted. So if we look at each team's
• 25:23
  Speaker 7: first twelve plays, I should say San Francisco's first twelve
• 25:26
  Speaker 7: plays that they actually ran in each game, Christian McCaffrey
• 25:30
  Speaker 7: cleared it sixty percent of the time, thirty seven out
• 25:33
  Speaker 7: of sixty two, and his median wasn't four yards. His
• 25:36
  Speaker 7: median was five yards, So half the time he had
• 25:38
  Speaker 7: at least five yards on a carry. Now, if we
• 25:42
  Speaker 7: just look at literally just the first three carries of
• 25:45
  Speaker 7: the game, he's cleared it sixty five percent of the time.
• 25:47
  Speaker 7: So it seems like right off the bat, forty nine
• 25:50
  Speaker 7: ers come out with a game plan to, you know,
• 25:53
  Speaker 7: really let Christian McCaffrey shine. He's cleared it, like I said,
• 25:56
  Speaker 7: sixty five percent of time, thirty one out of forty
• 25:58
  Speaker 7: eight carries. Of the first three carries of the game,
• 26:02
  Speaker 7: he has cleared three and a half yards. So and
• 26:05
  Speaker 7: it also makes a lot of sense to look at
• 26:07
  Speaker 7: the beginning part of the game because what's happening in
• 26:08
  Speaker 7: the second half. The forty nine ers are getting big leads, right,
• 26:11
  Speaker 7: and so defenses can key in on the fact that
• 26:13
  Speaker 7: they know Christian McCaffrey is going to run at a
• 26:15
  Speaker 7: higher rate and limit his yards per carries. So I
• 26:19
  Speaker 7: do think it makes a lot of sense to throw
• 26:20
  Speaker 7: out a lot of that later game stuff, that second
• 26:22
  Speaker 7: half stuff where defenses are kind of changing their game
• 26:25
  Speaker 7: plan because they know the forty nine ers are changing
• 26:27
  Speaker 7: their game plan to be more run heavy. So I
• 26:30
  Speaker 7: think it's a fair sample to size to say this
• 26:32
  Speaker 7: is somewhere around a sixty percent chance of clearing or
• 26:34
  Speaker 7: getting it. I got it at minus one ten and
• 26:36
  Speaker 7: since been bet to minus one fifteen. Still love it
• 26:38
  Speaker 7: at minus one fifteen. Considering I have at least minus
• 26:41
  Speaker 7: one fifty as fair value, and we haven't even mentioned
• 26:44
  Speaker 7: he's going against Kansas City. He's twenty seventh in defensive
• 26:48
  Speaker 7: rush DVA. That's five percent worse than the average team
• 26:52
  Speaker 7: Christian McCaffrey has faced this year.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Simon, I feel like I'm already looking for ways to
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: bet on the Niners. That aren't ways to bet on
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the Niners to win the game this field and that
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: are on Christian McCaffrey. This feels like the perfect bet
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: for someone like.
• 27:12
  Speaker 6: Me right now.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: He's also your boyfriend.
• 27:15
  Speaker 6: You can't quit him.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: You've been obsessed with this guy this whole season.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: So I am I have for MVP. I think he
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: should have been MVP. I think he's I think he
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: might be the best offensive player in football. He's the
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: most dynamic. He runs hard, he finds that holes he
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: can catch out of the backfield. Nothing not to love
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: about this guy.
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: And Nick had me.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: First thing.
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: I thought he was gonna start off, I tell us
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: to take tails. I was like, oh my gosh, he's
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: really gonna go coin flip here. But he pulled a
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: fast one. He want first carry of the game. When
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: McCaffrey and just pick it back on what he said.
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: The Chiefs they struggle to contacted running backs in the backfield.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: They're like, I think they're thirty through twenty ninth in
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: the league at contacted running back behind the line of scrimmage.
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: So right there, plays right into win Nick's talking though,
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: It's like they don't. They're not the kind of guys
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: that just grab guys down behind the line. Usually that
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: a guy pick up a couple of yards before dragging
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: him down. So we talked about they have undersized linebackers.
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: Who's that benefit McCaffrey in this run blocking scheme? So
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: me and you joked about before he came on chat
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: if they run the ball forty times in this game,
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: I swear the forty hours will somehow win this game.
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: It's just that's the weakness, the glad weakness of this
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: Chiefs team. So I'm fading a lot of props right
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: now in this fortyres team. But ones I had piggybacked
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: Nick off of is I like the McCaffrey props and
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: Debo props, like the Chiefs have struggle against guys in
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: the slot. Deebo runs out of the slot. I mean
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: his numbers are even juiced up to minus one twenty.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: I believe it's over fifty eight and a half receiving
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: yards now. Still love it Like Deebo. These are the
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: kind of games he shines. It like the games that
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: he isn't playing for tomorrow. Right, this is it. This
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: is a perfect game for Deebo, the man that uses
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: his body more physically than anyone else. So that's wrong
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: that the forty nine ers like I don't want to
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: put too much money to them, Like you talked about,
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: we're heavy in the Chiefs here, but there's just tons
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: of value on this point Ris team that I can't
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: pass on. That's that's definitely one of them playing McCaffrey
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: playing Deebo. I love the value with those guys.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: This week, all right, listen, I would like to run
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: through MVPs for each of you. We've covered the side,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: we've covered the total, We've covered some fun props for
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: mahomes from McCaffrey interceptions. Let's do a rundown of MVP
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: long shots, MVP picks, Raybon.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: Let's start with you.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with a guy in the Chiefs and
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: I think Nick is two and so and I like
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: hedging both of these guys together because I think both
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: of them have a great shot. I'll go with the
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: more obvious one, that's Travis Kelce at fourteen to one.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: So I think you're getting a little value on Kelsey
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: because we know over the last twenty years or so,
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: a lot more pass catchers have one, you know, branch Edelman, Hines, Wards,
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: Antonio Holmes, Cooper Cup. So we're starting to see a
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: lot of a lot more pass catchers win. And then
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: we know Kelsey scored an eight of the last nine
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: playoff games with Mahomes thirteen out of seven, and he's
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: got eighteen touchdowns overall. So, uh, there's a possibility, you know,
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: if he gets a touchdown. Remember last time in the
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl, the Chiefs put up thirty eight points. Last year,
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: Mahomes only had one hundred and eight two yards. He
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: had three scores. But you know, if Chelsey is able
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: to put up a good you know, a good yardage
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: total with a touchdown, it's possible that you know that
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: that Mahomes doesn't get it if the Chiefs win. Now,
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: you look at San Francisco. Their numbers have been good
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: against tight ends on the year, but there he haven't
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: faced anyone the three tight ends. They faced Sam Laporta
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: nine catches for ninety seven on thirteen targets, Trey McBride
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: ten for one O two on eleven targets, and TJ.
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: Hockinson eleven for eighty six on twelve targets. And then
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: there is some precedent for like a legend like Mahomes
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: if the Chiefs wereld have win for to not get
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: it because he's won two, right, he's won two super Bowl,
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: he's won two MVPs. Well, Brady won two, and then
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: when he won his third super Bowl, he on branch won,
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: It's that's his that's the past catchers. When Brady won
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: two more after that with the Patriots, then his third one,
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: Julian Edelman wins it. So maybe I don't. Maybe there's
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: a little bit of voter for Tea coming in when
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: we know Kelsey's the man of the hour now, you
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: know with all the auto hoop loss around to him.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: So I think he's a I think he should be
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: less than fourteen to one. I think I think he's more.
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: He's a lot more in the mix here. But you're
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: getting value because tight end is never one you're getting
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: value because San Francisco has been good against tight ends,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: and you've been getting value because I think the Chiefs
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: are A would have undervalued. So for all those reasons,
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: I like Kelsey counter narrative.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: There's no bigger fan of love than me. Everyone knows
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: I love love, huge fan of love, massive fan of
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: the Travis Kelcey Taylor Swift storyline. I think that the
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: they just seem happy, They seem genuinely like each other,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: and he seems like a sweet guy I love for music.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I want them to be together forever. I do think.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: I do think that sports writers are irascable, unsentimental group. Well,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: everyone think great Travis Kelcey career capstone. I think because
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: of Taylor Swift, they might vote against him.
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: That's what I think.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: And this is a narrative award. I'm just saying, no
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: one sports writers the way I do. People will not
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: want to be heartwarming in this spot. Nick Niffin, what's
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: my alternative?
• 32:18
  Speaker 7: Yeah, Well, I guess if you want to vote against
• 32:21
  Speaker 7: the Swift Kelsey narrative, then you're going to go to
• 32:24
  Speaker 7: the other option in this receiving game. And that's where
• 32:26
  Speaker 7: shee Rice sixty to one. I got him seventy to one,
• 32:29
  Speaker 7: he's still sixty one. Still love that value at sixty
• 32:32
  Speaker 7: to one. I mean, if you like the MVP value
• 32:35
  Speaker 7: on Kelsey and I can't argue against Raybond there, then
• 32:38
  Speaker 7: you have to like Rashi Rice MVP at sixty one.
• 32:40
  Speaker 7: Because if we compare the two, Rashet Rice has been
• 32:43
  Speaker 7: better than Travis Kelcey in the second half of the
• 32:45
  Speaker 7: year in this offense. Like if we look since Thanksgiving,
• 32:48
  Speaker 7: targets per game Rashi Rice nine Travis Kelcey seven and
• 32:52
  Speaker 7: a half explosive games, which I'm saying ninety plus yards
• 32:55
  Speaker 7: because that's kind of the minimum yardage needed for a
• 32:57
  Speaker 7: receiver to win MVP right four Travis kelce two touchdowns
• 33:02
  Speaker 7: Rashier Rice four Travis kelce three because sometimes the MVP
• 33:06
  Speaker 7: award is kind of a touchdown based award. So Rashi
• 33:09
  Speaker 7: Rice has been as good or better than Travis Kelcey
• 33:12
  Speaker 7: since Thanksgiving. So I think there's a lot of sneaky
• 33:15
  Speaker 7: value in taking Rashi Rice. We look, you know, raybon
• 33:18
  Speaker 7: was mentioning all those receivers that have one. Let's just
• 33:21
  Speaker 7: look at the last two which has occurred in the
• 33:22
  Speaker 7: last five years. Cooper Cup two years ago and Edelman
• 33:26
  Speaker 7: four or five years ago. Cooper Cup had eight catches
• 33:29
  Speaker 7: on ten targets only ninety two yards. He didn't even
• 33:32
  Speaker 7: crack the sentry mark, but he had two touchdowns, which
• 33:34
  Speaker 7: I think put him over the top there. And then
• 33:37
  Speaker 7: Edelman he had ten catches on twelve targets for one
• 33:40
  Speaker 7: hundred and forty one yards, but he had no touchdowns.
• 33:43
  Speaker 7: So those are within Rashi Rice's range of outcomes. He's
• 33:47
  Speaker 7: put up numbers exactly like those other than the multi
• 33:49
  Speaker 7: touchdown game. But if he goes ten for twelve and
• 33:52
  Speaker 7: one touchdown, that is a very MVP worthy stat line.
• 33:57
  Speaker 7: And you know, I think that's a stat line that
• 33:59
  Speaker 7: travel Kelsey He's only really met once since Thanksgiving, and
• 34:02
  Speaker 7: of course that was, you know, the most recent playoff
• 34:05
  Speaker 7: game here in the Conference Championship. But Rashie Rice has
• 34:07
  Speaker 7: met that stat line combined with hatches, yards and touchdowns
• 34:11
  Speaker 7: like three times since Thanksgiving. Rashie Rice also he only
• 34:15
  Speaker 7: lines up on the outside right side where he would
• 34:17
  Speaker 7: be facing Tarvariu's ward twenty percent of the time. And
• 34:21
  Speaker 7: I think Kansas City would be especially two weeks to
• 34:23
  Speaker 7: plan would be smart to scheme him up away from
• 34:25
  Speaker 7: Charvarious Ward even more, which could make this offense really Kelsey,
• 34:30
  Speaker 7: Rashi Rice, and Pacheco focused with Mahomes of course dishing
• 34:34
  Speaker 7: it out to those guys. So I think this becomes
• 34:37
  Speaker 7: a pretty concentrated offense, which means it becomes a pretty
• 34:40
  Speaker 7: concentrated MVP race at least if you look at Kansas
• 34:43
  Speaker 7: City winning and then the offensive side of the ball.
• 34:45
  Speaker 7: Obviously we can't neglect the defense, but ideally if Kansas
• 34:49
  Speaker 7: City wins, it's going to come from the offense. Another
• 34:51
  Speaker 7: guy who's in that same price range, George Kittle on
• 34:54
  Speaker 7: San Francisco's side of the ball, he has won extra mouth.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: To deal with.
• 34:58
  Speaker 7: Then you know, then she Rice has. He's got Rock Purty,
• 35:01
  Speaker 7: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel Brandon, ayuk Gos four guys that
• 35:05
  Speaker 7: he has to contend with. Rashi Rice mainly has three
• 35:07
  Speaker 7: other offensive players like I mentioned, Mahomes, Kelsey, and Pacheco
• 35:10
  Speaker 7: to contend with. So he's got less competition at a
• 35:13
  Speaker 7: similar price range as George Kittle. And then if we
• 35:16
  Speaker 7: look at Travis Kelsey was down in the teens, very
• 35:20
  Speaker 7: similar stat line, very similar competition, level because they're on
• 35:23
  Speaker 7: the same team. He's just so much longer. So you know,
• 35:26
  Speaker 7: if I do some back to the Napkin math, we
• 35:28
  Speaker 7: just look at the Chief's money line, that's like forty
• 35:29
  Speaker 7: five percent to win. If we say Mahomes wins it
• 35:33
  Speaker 7: seventy five percent of the time. Let's be generous there
• 35:35
  Speaker 7: and say Mahomes win at seventy five percent. If it's
• 35:37
  Speaker 7: split equally between Kelsey and Pacheco and Rashi Rice, then
• 35:41
  Speaker 7: that should put Rashi Rice around thirty to one. If
• 35:43
  Speaker 7: we say, well it should favorite Kelsey, then that would
• 35:46
  Speaker 7: put Rashi Rice around forty five to one. So I
• 35:48
  Speaker 7: think anything longer than forty five to one is value.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, we've got two Chiefs long shot MVPs.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Are you going to close it out for us?
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: I call this the Cowhard?
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: Who is Cowhard's favorite player in this game?
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Chad Patrick?
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Mahomes.
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: No, it's Sam Darnald. You've now ever watched that Man
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: show Jesus Christy.
• 36:08
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm gonna be
• 36:10
  Speaker 7: generationally wealthy.
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: Sam Donald. And it's a stupid bet. I hate it,
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: but it's a bet I have to make. It's a
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: bet where we've seen Perty go down in a first
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: quarter of a playoff game before, we've seen him take
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: blindside hits because Shanahan schemed up wrong and he blocked
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: one of the best d ms in football with the
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: tight end. Like, these things can happen, So it's crazy.
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: But Sam Donald right now is two hundred to one,
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna throw a little bit on that. It's
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: it's crazy odds. You need a miracle to hit it.
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: But I love those kind of bets. Obviously, the boy
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: and Chalk bet is going to be a home so
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: I'm staying away from that. I get if you want
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: to play that, but I like long shots. So my
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: second big long shot is Fred Warner. It's all there right,
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: Like if you could get turnovers, he can make big stops.
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: I could see him stealing this award just because he's
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: a recognized names you talked about the writers love him, right,
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: if you're a beauty nine ers you love him, and
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: then the chief side their respect out of it. Mean,
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: I think he just set the record for most tackles
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs for the forty nine ers defense historically. Like,
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: this guy has just been incredible his whole career has
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: been incredible. No one has a bad way to say
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: about Fred Warren and that we always talk about their
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: narrative driven awards. So that's why I like Sam Darnald.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: That's a crazy story. If he just came in and
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: threw for a one hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns.
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: I know it sounds stupid, but I could see him
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: winning this. Sam gos a Fred Warner. Fred Warner gets
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: a pick six, any type of turnover that flips the game,
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: I could easily see him winning this award, just because
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: what Nick talked about, the forty nine ers is going
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: to cannibalize each other on offense, so it's gonna be
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: really hard to pick a guy out there where defensively,
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: there's a couple of guys that stand out like Ward
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: you could take as well. But I like the price
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: on Fred. We just see time and time again linebackers
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: usually have a bigger impact on these type of games.
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I like Fred and I like the long
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: shot Sam Darnold.
• 37:52
  Speaker 7: Remember when you were in high school, we all built
• 37:54
  Speaker 7: forge or played with legos.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's fun. A lot of Fred Warner
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: fetishized goes on in press boxes, media rooms, you name it.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Sports writers love themselves some Fred Warner Simon. Everyone that
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: knows me, including you, including Matt Mitchell, knows I'm obsessed
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: with eating well. I avoid sugar, truth, I avoid seed oils.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: Truth. My body is a temple.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: I seek out quality in everything I eat, including meat
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• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Favorites one twenty. All right, I promised. I promised that
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: we would have the winner of our contest come on
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: during the show.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell spoke to him.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Number one, shout out to the guy who submitted mahomes
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: and Auto looked up the Median home and auto prices
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: in the Kansas City Metroplex for his prop. That's Brian
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Goldberg and his son Gerald. Other finalists. Let's see, there
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: was a blackjack prop either team to score exactly twenty
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: one points at any point during the game. There was
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: a hit on sixteen. Either team converts third and sixteen
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: or fourth and sixteen for a first down. Matt Mitchell,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: you want to come in and take this away.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: Okay, Last, but not least, Uncle.
• 40:41
  Speaker 7: Mitch to wrap us up. One.
• 40:43
  Speaker 6: I want to shout out Josh shave Us on Twitter
• 40:47
  Speaker 6: for posting that he couldn't figure out who brock Party
• 40:51
  Speaker 6: looked like, and he finally figured it out and it's
• 40:56
  Speaker 6: Lee Harvey Oswald. I've never seen something more so shout
• 41:01
  Speaker 6: out to Josh Chaves. I also want to thank all
• 41:03
  Speaker 6: of the many, many, many many listeners who submitted props.
• 41:08
  Speaker 6: I was overwhelmed with how many we got. Sorry, I
• 41:10
  Speaker 6: couldn't get back to everybody. Outstanding job. I'm sorry we
• 41:14
  Speaker 6: could only pick one, and ultimately it was up to
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: gaming regulations and Bet three sixty five for what they picked,
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: So in my mind, you're all winners. Thank you for listening.
• 41:23
  Speaker 6: I also want to thank Michael Sard and his shirt
• 41:26
  Speaker 6: company tom Bolow, which makes extremely vibrant terry cloth based
• 41:32
  Speaker 6: shirts of which I'm a big fan. Turns out he
• 41:34
  Speaker 6: is a listener of the show and is sending Chad
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: Simon and myself super Bowl shirts that they are creating.
• 41:41
  Speaker 6: I'm very excited to slip terry cloth against my adonis
• 41:45
  Speaker 6: like body. I'm sure you are too, Chad. I wasn't
• 41:48
  Speaker 6: sure they made shirts that small, but they're going to try. Finally,
• 41:53
  Speaker 6: it's time, though, for you, Chad, to announce the winner
• 41:58
  Speaker 6: of the contest. Please take it away.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five selected a winner from listener Chandler
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: ball jam in. It is titled the Broctopus Brock Party
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: to record an octopus at plus fourteen hundred, which is
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: now live on BET three sixty five under Super Bowl Specials.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Reminder and octopus that would be Brock Party to run
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: or throw for a touchdown, Brock Party to run or
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: throw for a two point conversion. Matt, We're going to
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: bring you back in, he spoke to Chandler. Congrats to Chandler,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: thank you for playing, Thank you for listening. Here is
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: the interview that Matt did with Chandler, and.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: All that build up and all of this hoop lot
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: is as big as it seems.
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: I think it's bigger than it seems.
• 42:52
  Speaker 7: It's the biggest thing in your.
• 42:53
  Speaker 6: Life, all right. As promised, I'm now joined by our
• 42:57
  Speaker 6: Favorites podcast BET three sixty five Super Bowl prop contest
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: winner Chandler. Baljamin Chandler, Welcome.
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: To the show, Thanks Matt, thanks for having me on.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: Chandler.
• 43:06
  Speaker 6: Where are you coming to us from.
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: Beautiful Phoenix, Arizona?
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: And what is your racket out there? Chandler? What do
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: you do?
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: I work for Southware Company. It's a lot of staying
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: inside and watching a lot of football.
• 43:18
  Speaker 6: And do you have any people are animals that live
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: with you?
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah? I got a couple of cats, one named Cam
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: Newton got him during the twenty fifteen season. It was
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: all about him.
• 43:27
  Speaker 6: So that's wonderful. Congratulations to you and to Cam Newton
• 43:31
  Speaker 6: for your big win. Obviously for everyone by Down knows
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: the winning heck was the Broctopus Rock party to record
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: an octopus in the Super Bowl. Can you tell us
• 43:40
  Speaker 6: a little bit about how you came up with this prop?
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: Yeah, it all starts with the fun name. You know.
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: I wanted to stay away from any Kelsey antics or
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: Chiefs antics from big Raiders fans, so I knew I
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: want to focus on the Niners. I was thinking about
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: the names, and I remember October you guys talked about
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: and I almost here in Scott Hansen voice, just saying broctopus.
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: That was that. I wanted to bet it and didn't
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: really think about plausibility or anything. But once something I
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: want that I want to root for and people are
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: going to want to root for, which is Rock pretty
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: beating these Chiefs.
• 44:12
  Speaker 6: Wow, A Raiders fan with a job really need to
• 44:15
  Speaker 6: let a Haystack situation.
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: For us, it's amazing more than three hots on a
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: cop for sure.
• 44:21
  Speaker 6: Chandler, we got a ton of submissions. What do you
• 44:24
  Speaker 6: think made you standout?
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: Well? I think Brock's a great story, Like for me personally,
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: it stays away from my homes or Kelsey. I think
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: I liked Kelsey how Much you can Save If I
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: was trying to get that to work. But we're just
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: tired of all those commercials, and you know, I think
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: there's more room to root for the Niners and rock
• 44:41
  Speaker 5: Perty's got this cool story. Octopus is something people have
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: hopefully heard of, but it's still kind of in the know,
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: So just fun to say we can all yell it
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: out when it happens.
• 44:51
  Speaker 6: Do you think you will be placing money on this wager? Yourself?
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: Just found out that it's now going to be live
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: in my state, so I cannot wait to play step bet.
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: Absolutely have to bet it.
• 45:02
  Speaker 6: Have you been listening to the Favorites podcast for very long?
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: About three years?
• 45:06
  Speaker 6: I'd say, do you have any feedback to give Chad
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: or Simon?
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: I think it's better when they're fighting, the more that
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: Chad is representing the public and Simon can kind of
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: braid him or that contention. It's great. The guys do
• 45:18
  Speaker 5: a great job. It's fun to listen to.
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: So before we go, do have a most memorable moment
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: from gambling this season?
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: The Bills at home hosting the Dolphins. I think it
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: was like minus two and a half. Every bone in
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: my body just said, bet the house on this thing.
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: It's the safest bet, and it just within minutes it
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: was completely safe. I think we all we all felt
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: that way. You know, it was as Simon says, I
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: believe and you know, I'm sure you were all over
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: that as well. But those are the best. It makes
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: losing five times on the Panthers feel better when you
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: get those sure ones. So that was That was probably
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: my favorite.
• 45:49
  Speaker 6: Excellent pandering by you, Chandler, and a plus job working
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: the Carolina Panthers into this interview before we get out
• 45:56
  Speaker 6: of here, anything else you would like to add, Chandler.
• 45:58
  Speaker 5: Rock pretty US two twenty Super Bowl MVP is the
• 46:01
  Speaker 5: best bet. I'm getting the quarterback on consensus favorite at
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: just a great number, so I would hit that while
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: it's still that high.
• 46:09
  Speaker 6: Thank you so much for your submission. Congratulations on your win,
• 46:12
  Speaker 6: and thank you for taking the time to join us.
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks Matt, and thanks Bet three six five. Can't
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: wait to place my bet on the brock toplust.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Get congratulations again to Chandler. Thanks so much to Matt
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Mitchell for performing such a professional interview. As a reminder,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.
• 46:31
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  Speaker 1: sure to catch our next episode of The Favorites live
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• 47:25
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• 47:30
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