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NFL Week 5 - Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Clear for liftoff. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamblyn here, a.k.a.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Toe Tagging Tambo, back for another edition of Leverage Lane
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: here on the Shippen Nation YouTube station. We got week
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: five NFL DFS edition. Got my guy Alex Blickle here
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: with me as always. And I posted it out, Alex.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be one of our most
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: important episodes ever. This is a Very clear cut path
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: that a lot of people are on. So we will
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: get to that with the Detroit Arizona game being a
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: big factor. That's a really good leverage lane calls last
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: week yourself with the big boy over there with the
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Kyron Williams just smashed. Could have been even better, I think.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: So we'll talk about that a little bit and bring
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: it into this week. There's a conversation from last week
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: with the Jacksonville Cincinnati game. Parker washed in 10. Definitely
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: not a good game for him. And we talked about
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: that last week. And then on Sunday morning, double down
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: on it as well. And there's some differences between, I
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: think the Jacksonville Cincy game last week and the Detroit
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Arizona game for this week. But there's going to be
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: a lot to talk about when we get to the
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: chalk build. very clear picture of what that kind of
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: looks like versus some of the weeks have been a
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: little bit trickier. And then how can we leverage that
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: other game stacks? We can use how to think about it.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: And you know, the sample size, I want to talk
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: about that type of stuff too. Little Tambo tangent, maybe
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: some big ship at nation ship at games news. We'll
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: get to here shortly, but what's going on, my friend,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I said, your data mind, my game theory mind, blend
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: them all together in one. This should be a really
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: good one.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm excited to talk through this slate. I think
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: it's a really tricky slate. And I think it's one
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: where like, you really need to be making purposeful decisions.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: If you're just getting different for the sake of getting different,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: you're probably going to get slammed. So we need to
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: be making some really kind of clever pivots off of
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: what people are doing. So we'll talk through the chalk build.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: But yeah, man, last week was so much fun, right?
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Like we play this game to have weeks like last
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: week and not just, you know, I had a very
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: nice week myself, but like the whole community really over
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: at Blick Analytics, there were just massive, massive hits all around.
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: I think The winnings totaled like over $ 400, 000. There were
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: three over 50K, two over 100K. It was just a
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: really fun week to be part of that community. And yeah,
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: hopefully we can repeat that and another Kyron Williams-level leverage
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: lane that will hopefully help us get there.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: For sure. It's a nice thing about us doing this
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: together is we have a lot of crossover. I know
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: Donnie's in both communities. He won the 100K in the
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: afternoon only. At Shiba Nation, our guy B-Wald, pretty much,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: he said it himself, life-changing source, $ 760 to $ 70, 000 plus.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: that's the Sunday you're looking for in the dream. And
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: it just goes, goes to show like one lineup. That
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: was a single entry. It was in the a hundred
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: dollar with 50 K up top. It was another tournament
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: with 20 K you know, but played the one lineup
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: and not going outside of his realm every single week,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: just waiting for it to happen. And that's, that's makes
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: the payoff. even better. And, you know, from my perspective,
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I was super sick on Sunday, got even worse on Monday,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Tuesday and everybody, but I did have a good week.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: It was a 12th place in the Millie maker. I
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: wish I had your Kyron Williams play in there over
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: some of the other stuff that would have made it
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: even better, but just the worst beat. Nobody cares, work harder,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: but I didn't get to talk about it with anyone.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: So I'll tell you, did you see what happened in
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: the Kansas city game where Walker scored the touchdown and
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: which was fine. Tyquan Thornton was never getting in, unfortunately
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: for him, the bad injury, but that was stopped at
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: the two. I know that Walker touchdown is coming. I'm like, okay,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: there it is. But at least I have Bowers going
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: the other way. And that's kind of the end game
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: of the day. I should be good. The kickoff ensuing
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: kickoff goes to them. They fumble it. And then Walker
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: brings it in again for another touchdown.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: On the very next play. Yeah.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: So that, that took me kind of out of it.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: I was first in the FFWC and it was like,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: this was going to be it for sure. I still
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: get the Bowers touchdown and only lose by six points,
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: but it's like anything but the Walker situation and the
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: way it played out. So we're back to the grind
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: again this week. I got second in that I got
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: 12th in the mega Millie. And then on Wednesday this week,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: I did it again in baseball, got two mega tickets
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: to the 44, 44. So we're back in it again
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: for this week. I think it's going to be a
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: fun one though. A lot to talk about here. Starting
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: with last week, you had the Kyron call. I know
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: everyone's going to be looking for the same thing this week,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: but what were some of the things now for anyone
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: who didn't catch it last week that you sort of
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: saw and were able to bring that into your lane
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: and have confidence to say over all those other options
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: that he was going to be your guy? Because it's
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: not really results oriented when you talked about it beforehand.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: You had your own stuff there. So I'll let you
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: go ahead on that one.
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so this is one of those cases
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: where like the call really wasn't about football takes, you know,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: it wasn't like, Oh man, this is a much better
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: matchup than people realize because of this or that. Like
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: it was just purely game theory. It was just, Hey,
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: I have a really good read on ownership here. There
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: are like five running backs in this, in this range.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: I I'm let's see if we can remember the chalk
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: that was right around him. We, we had Jeremiah love
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Aaron Jones, 100 bucks more. Yeah. Jones, there were, uh,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: we had Scadaboo who was, was also clearly fading a
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: little bit in ownership. There was, there was another one
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: that was fairly popular. Um, regardless, like the way, the
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: way I talked it through, uh, for the leverage lane
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: was basically like the guys around him are not more
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: likely to succeed. And they're certainly not more likely to
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: give us like a huge score because Tyron's touchdown equity
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: was kind of his, you know, just in his own
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: tier there. And, uh, that really is, is what came
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: to fruition, right? Is, It helped that the Eagles secondary
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: did such a good job that Stafford was just checking
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: down all game. So that was really nice. But the touchdowns, right?
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: That's what it comes down to. And you mentioned the
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: Kenneth Walker run out. When Walker scored that second touchdown,
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: I couldn't help but think, my guys have never had
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: that kind of luck. Yeah, I feel that way for sure.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: We're coming down the stretch. There's like eight minutes left
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: in the game. And I'm thinking, man, I just need
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: another eight points from this guy. And then all of
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: a sudden he gets... 22 fantasy points in like two
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: seconds of game time. Like, you know, that has never
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: once happened for me, but, uh, I will say Kyron
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: was pretty good down the stretch. He had, you know,
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: that final drive, he had a number of receptions, got
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: into the end zone for a second time.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: But it, it played out the way that we hoped, right.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: It was like, Hey, all of these guys who were getting,
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: you know, I, I had, uh, love steaming up to 35%.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: That was one of the key reads ownership wise of,
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: of last week. There was absolutely no reason why Jeremiah
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: Love should have been three, almost four times as owned
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: as Kyron Williams.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Just look at what Kyron Williams has done over the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: last couple of years.
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: And I think part of that too was like so
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: much about finding good DFS plays is just recognizing where
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: there's an ownership inefficiency. And with Kyron, there was a
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: clear ownership inefficiency in the sense that people were off
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: of him despite the massive drop in price. Because Corum's
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: role was increasing. But Corum's role is increasing in the
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: sense that he's going from 25% to 40% of the
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: carries in between the 20s. Kyron is still the passing
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: down guy. Kyron is still the goal line guy. Who
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: cares if he gets three or four fewer carries a
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: game in between the 20s when that's maybe a point and.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: A half of equity or something like that. That doesn't matter.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: That doesn't affect his overall range of outcomes. His ceiling
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: is still really, really good for that price as we
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: saw last week.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a few other guys. I was trying
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: to look at the chalk running backs from last week.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: I'll flash it over here just to finish out this thought,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: and then we'll go into it. Using DFSOS.com, code SHIPIT
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: over there gets you guys 50% off. If you want
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: to check it out and see how the best DFS
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: players actually play, you can get all the data, including
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the new FanDuel data that you could never have before.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: So you can see it works with all the sites
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: that you're already using out there. But if we look
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: at this last week, one drop king, I believe, won
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: the Mega Millie. just on an absolute tear shot at
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the one drop King, but it was Jeremiah love Christian McCaffrey.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Aaron Jones was way up there. Chase Brown, Braylon Allen
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: had a little bit.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: And then, yeah, like nobody, Chase Brown was the other
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: one I was thinking of. It was, it was Chase
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: Brown that, you know, and, and Brown ended up being
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: pretty good for the, for largely like the same reason
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: that Kyron was where he, he really ran hot in
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: terms of his receptions, but like even there, okay. The
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: difference is Kyron had more touchdown equity as we've seen
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: over the years. So, So, yeah, I thought just we
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: we had a we we were given a gift by
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: the field last week, both in the in the ownership
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: of that group of running backs and in the ownership
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: of that main Jacksonville Cincinnati game. I don't think we're
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: getting the same breaks this week. The truck this week
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: seems a lot stronger.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I got a segue. We'll get there in a second
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: for sure. Um, you know, Berga OD says tough week.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Can we really fade or we'll be on it? If
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: we just started with that, that would ruin the whole purpose.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: You got to stick around with us. We've got a
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: lot to talk about, but we're not going to spend
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: much time reminiscing. We aren't going to spend much time
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: on marketing either, but I'm going to quickly tell you
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: there is a huge ship at games announcement. So I
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: got to make this, this is special. So Alex referenced it.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: We had, you know, huge wins across our communities last week.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: And one of our guys sharks, uh, sharks, 88, 19,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: I believe he, he turned, I think it was, Thousand
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: or 1300s. Anyway, it was over 40,000 plus that he
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: won on a smaller amount of buy-ins. And he did
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: this last year. Jamie is his name. Just an awesome,
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: awesome dude. So shout out to Jamie. Shout out to Sharks.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: But this is huge. A ship it donation. So donated $ 4, 853.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: This is outlandish. So again, cannot say enough. Thanks. High
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: gratitude for sharks. Just an absolute stud to round up
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: the ship at games prize pool to $ 50, 000 cash and prizes.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: So what does that mean?
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: When you're looking at it here, let me go back
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: to it. Just so you guys can see, if you
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: go to the website, ship at nation.com, if you're, you'll
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: be living under a rock, we're the only site giving
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: out 50,000 now in cash and prizes. But if you
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: go to ship at games and you click the link
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: at the top, It will show you here your any
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: all access and NFL only member is eligible. It's a
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: community driven contest. There is 50 golden ship it tickets available.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: You can get in at any time. You can win
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: this week. The golden shipper that you play in the
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: top three win a golden ship a ticket. We now
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: have 12 winners four weeks in. So the prize pool
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: for them just all got bigger for what they'll be
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: playing for. There is still the remaining spots to go
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: so that you can get in starting this week. But
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: just so everybody knows, the prize pool got bumped. It
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: is now 12,000 for first as opposed to 10,000. Cash,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: real money. 6,000 as opposed to 5,000. 3,000 as opposed
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: to 2,500. The 1250s for fourth and fifth went up
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: to 1,500. And the five placements of 1,000 from sixth
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: to 10th went up to 1200. You can see all
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: the details on ship at games.com, but all you have
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: to do is join ship at nation and be an
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: all access or NFL only member. Think about it like
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: another buy-in for your tournaments. You're just buying in, you're
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: getting a great community, ton of content, lots of stuff
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: incoming that we're working on. And then you get to
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: play in ship at games as well.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So that's like, uh, that's like doing satellites for free.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: That's cool.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: It's what we think about your, your content is a contest. Basically.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: It's like you're buying into a satellite. You get to
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: play each week, no matter what, as long as you're in,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: you get to hang out in the community. There's tons
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: of great people in there talking through strategies, things like that.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: And then you actually get that as a bonus on
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: top of everything else. It's a fun thing that we do.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: There will be a PGA ship at games. So I
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: would look at the annual membership if it saves you
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: some money there as well. But yeah, you don't see
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: somebody giving away $ 4, 853. So we have plans to take
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: care of sharks and, even more than he knows. But
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: just to note it, that's just an incredible gesture and
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: what the community is really all about. So as Alex said,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: I think it was a million bucks across both communities
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: that people won and some combined in there, sure. But
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: it was a great week and we're trying to do
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: it again this week. Let's talk about this because it's
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: a segue to where we're going to go. We're not
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: going to spend much more time on last week, but
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: I talked about it at my leverage lane, Jacksonville, Cincinnati,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: just getting crazy ownership last week in that spot. It
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: was just like being fixated on as the game of
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: the week. I can look at it and you could
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: talk about it, but not the same this week, right?
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: I don't think this week you're looking at the, uh,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: the Detroit Arizona game thinking it's like the Jacksonville Cincy
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: game of last week. Are you?
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: No, I mean, so I, I would even go as
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: far as to say like the, the difference in the
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: totals doesn't even tell the full story because, uh, on the,
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: like it's, I think it's, it might be up to
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: nine now, but whether it's an eight point difference or
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: a nine point difference between that total and the second
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: highest total, like the other thing is so many of
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: these other games have rain issues or some wind issues.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: And then with Arizona and Detroit, it's like you have
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: Detroit who's number one in terms of explosive passes allowed.
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: And then you have Arizona who's number six and explosive
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: pass allowed in terms of like allowing a ton.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So Detroit allows the most.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: So so much of like DFS success and game environments
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: come from explosive pass plays. So it's not just that
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: we have this like huge difference in overall scoring equity,
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: but the way in which points are going to be
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: scored in this game seems to be conducive for DFS points.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: This is a really, really hard slate.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: We basically have two options and you know, we're kind
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: of jumping the gun a little bit here, but this
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: feels like a slate where you, you have to make
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: a decision every single lineup.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: One of two things before you do anything else.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: And the first is, I'm playing this game in a
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: different way or, you know, chalk sack in a contrarian way,
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: or I'm fading this game and I need the rest
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: of my lineup to tell the story of how this
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: game fails. Last week, I thought we could avoid that
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville Cincinnati game and kind of not worry about it.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: It was just like, okay, well that game might let
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: people down. That's kind of what happened this week.
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: I don't think we can simply outscore those, uh, you know,
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: lineups with, with that game, unless our lineup is telling
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: a story of how that game fails. Whether that's, hey,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: the Detroit defense just really shows up this week, gets
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: a bunch of sacks, and consequently it's a slower second
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: half game where Detroit just controls the ball and runs
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: the ball a lot.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Everything this week has to be a little bit more purposeful.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think there's more to be talked about,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: but I will start with my tangent. I said it
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: earlier just to go into it. I guess you're the
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: data guy, and you can definitely go against me on
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: this for certain, but I just... The sites that are
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: finding the information and the nuggets, I appreciate that side
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: of it. I love curating. Tambo's Tidbits, I've done for years.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: I think it's very interesting still. I'm not shitting on this.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Don't take me wrong, but I just... Like the last
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: three times this happened or there's been seven events where
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: this was the case. It's not even against them. They're
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: putting out information. People want to learn it. I want
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: to I'm reading it. I'm talking about it. So it's working.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: But like the last three weeks aren't this week. The
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: last seven events aren't this event. Success does leave clues.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: And there's things we want to pick up from these
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: things and try and make cases and talk game theory
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: and and think about this stuff. But realistically, whatever happened
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: in the last seven games, the whole thing can change
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: for today. You got 0-4 teams that all of a
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: sudden blow another team out. They're not even supposed to.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: The other night, Dallas was far and away. Nobody could
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: see Tampa Bay even sticking in that game, and they
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: win the game handily. It was easy for them.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: So.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: lots of shit changes and has nothing to do with that.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: All we can do is take the data that we
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: have at hand, in my opinion, and that's what this
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: show is all about and say, okay, here's what everybody's doing.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: We at least know that that's a nice part. We
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: know what everyone's doing. How can we go against that?
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Or what would it look like if we were, and
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: especially from a, you know, single entry perspective where it's like,
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: if you only got one shot, how do you want
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: to handle that? Knowing that everybody else only has one shot.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: And then we do talk a little bit of one
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: lineup stuff too. Like what if everybody else has one,
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: 150 and you've got one from a satellite ticket. So
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: talk to me a little bit about that. I'm sure
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: you've seen some of it as well. Maybe dug into
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: it yourself as well. Like, what are you seeing? What
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: do you think of that? Does it matter? How much
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: do you take away from it? I'm very curious.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: It's a good question.
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think the thing we always have to
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: remember is like the, the NFL, we would love it
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: if we had a great sample sizes and we could
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: take a lot from, from the data, but the truth
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: is like these games are so volatile.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: They're so random.
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: Uh, I think that, you know, you mentioned like, you know,
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: they're like the.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Last seven times this happened.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: Well, like a sample size of seven NFL games is
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: literally meaningless for, for what's going to happen in the future.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: I did think there were, there were a couple, uh,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: like really good, um, either comparisons or my data points
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: that I did see people make around the, around the industry.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: So I'll give two quick shouts, a jam to win.
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: I thought made a really good comparison, really good analogy
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: where this is like a core slate in MLB DFS.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to spend too much time on that
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: analogy because I think a lot of people watching probably
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: don't play MLB DFS, but essentially it's just like, man,
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: there's this one game that goes so far above everything else.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: And one of the things I always look for, like
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: the very first thing I look for on a core
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: slate is like, okay, well, is there a cheap pitcher
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: that I can help, that can both help differentiate me
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: from the field, but also can help me fit in these,
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: you know, really high price stacks in course field, so
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: on and so forth. And so, you know, one of
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: the first questions that we should be asking about this
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: slate is, well, do we have pieces that we can
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: use around this game that can not just help us
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: fit them, but also help us separate. And, uh, I,
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: I think that's one of the things that made that
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: where like this slate became really difficult is with the
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: Ashen Genting news where now you have the entire field
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: has access to $ 4, 200 Mike Washington and, but projects extremely well.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: You can't really differentiate around him.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: You can't pivot off of him to, you know, another $ 4, 300.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Running back or something like that and expect to separate
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: from Mike Washington. And so that part makes it a
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: little bit difficult. And then the second thing that I
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: really enjoyed kind of focusing on this game was from
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Sam Brott of ETR who talked about the other games
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: that were like this. But the interesting thing about his
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: analysis was he looked at it like, well, okay, when
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: those games go off. So like, let's say, Let's say
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: we knew ahead of time that this Detroit-Arizona game was
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: going to finish 38-31. Is that enough to say that
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: we know for sure that we need this game, that
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: we need pieces from this game? Or is it possible
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: for a game like that to really hit? But it's
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: random guys, right? It's Elijah Higgins catching a touchdown. And
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: then it's Penny Sewell catching a touchdown for Detroit. And
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: maybe there's a defensive touchdown here or there. And it's
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: like maybe the production is balanced enough where Gibbs gets 25.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: St. Brown gets 20. Laporta gets 15. Jameson Williams gets 14.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: On the other side, it's like McBride gets 22.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Michael Wilson gets 17.
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: It's like, these are all fine scores, but there's not
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: a single score that you need to have in your lineup.
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: And so I thought it was really cool the way
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: he kind of broke it down and just talked about like,
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: even if this game hits, it doesn't guarantee that we're
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: going to need it. And so, yeah, it's, it's just
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: like a really, really unique puzzle this week that we
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: have to solve. And as you and I have talked about, like, that's,
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: that's what we think is the most fun part of DFS.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: So even though this is a difficult week, I think
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: it's just an enjoyable one to, for one thing, just
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: sit here and talk through, but then also, you know,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: really dive in deep tonight. I'm, I think this is
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: a week where, you know, ownership projections could change a lot,
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: not just with news, but also as people search for
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: different ways to, you know, sneakily play this game. And,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: and I think, you know, as, as we talked about
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: a lot of the time, like the number one, formula
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: for steam on a player, you know, someone who's projected
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: at 10% and 25% and everyone's like, well, how the
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: hell did that happen? The number one way that happens
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: is everybody has the same thought where, Hey, this is
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: really sneaky. It's actually not sneaky. And I think that's
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: one of the things I do pretty well over with
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: the ownership analysis is like finding who everyone thinks is
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: sneaky and ends up not being sneaky.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. If you're thinking it's chances are others are more
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: than you, more than you think that's, that's one of
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: them for sure. And Greg, we'll definitely get to this.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: That's part of leverage lane. If you're joining us for
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: the first time, make sure to hit that thumbs up,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel, but we do talk about game
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: stacks later. And one of the things about a slate
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: like this too, is like, yes, I think this is
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: when we get to the common build here in a second,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: Alex of, you know, Brissette, Wilson and McBride. That is
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: a lot of the target share over there. So you're,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: you know, you say that's the other tricky part of it.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: You're like, well, it might not work out, but it's like, well,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: if it does for them though, it's kind of, you know,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: where it's going. Typically you can make a case for
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Harrison and born and things like that and love. And
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about all that stuff. We get there, but
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: just noting it, it's like, usually when you're looking for
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: another game stack, you can find something that's more condensed.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: And if it was to hit, you're like, well, that
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: gives me a bunch of stuff going to one spot
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: for points that could make up for those others. I
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: might even be getting discounts as it's a salary constraint
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: game that we play. So I'm getting that. Those can
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: work in my favor, but then I'm also getting a
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: unique build. Most people only have Gibbs. I've now got Gibbs,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: this guy and this guy, and most people can't get
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: to all three of them at the same time or
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: something like that. So when you can find that and
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: work it in your favor, I definitely think that's a
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: way to leverage it. And we'll get to that later.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: But before we do, let's go over here now. Um,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: anything else you want to touch on from last week
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: before we get into this? I mean, this to me,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I said is like a woman, you know, you did
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: the baseball analogy, um, or, or, uh, somebody else did,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: but I'm saying like the the golf analogy, most people
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: that have watched us before on leverage lane is a
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: PGA DFS edition. It's the weeks we have to have
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: the Scotty Scheffler conversation and how does that work? And
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: I think something that, again, whether people follow PGA DFS
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: or not, that's kind of a takeaway for me with
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: that is what I was just hitting on before the
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: previous point of with Scotty Scheffler, the conversation is about, Like, okay,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: if him, then this, that means this gets left open, right?
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: This is an area that people just can't get to,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: or this is a thing people can't get to it
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: because there's stacking and correlation and more of it in
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: football and NFL DFS. It's like, okay, if people are
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: landing here, that means they probably aren't getting to this
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: and they put, you know, and they can't get to
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: this or they wouldn't be able to do that. And
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: that's what we want to talk about on this show.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Yeah, on that point, I think Gibbs is
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: like Scottie Scheffler this week, for sure.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: I think that's another really good comparison.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: And to that point, one of the things that we
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: talked about all season with Scottie was whether or not
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: to play Scottie isn't about how well you think Scottie's
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: going to play. It's how good are the pieces that
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: you need to play in order to fit him. And
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: sometimes major championships is like, the $ 6, 000, $ 7, 000 players were
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: actually really good players. A lot of the time, they
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: were crappy players. And I was like, you can't play
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: Scottie because even if he wins, your line was probably
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: going to suck. This is one of those weeks where
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: Gibbs is at a price point where, by all means,
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: he should do well, but you need cheap plays that
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: are actually good to fit him. And like I said,
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: unfortunately now with Mike Washington and a couple other spots
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: at receiver, I do think this is a week where, yeah,
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: He's probably a very good play, and he's deserving of
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: the ownership he's going to get, and that ownership might
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: be as high as 60%, maybe even 70% in certain
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: high-stakes single-entry contests.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So let's do this. I've got, this is a version. Look,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: there's a bunch of ways you go. Roman Wilson could
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: be until Williams. If people play him and wait on
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: the news, there is a bunch of injury news that
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: we're still waiting on. I feel like we have a
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: clear path to some of it. But just looking at
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: this right now, I think kind of the setup again,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: could be off in a couple of spots, but Jacoby Wilson, McBride,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: you get Gibbs in there. You got no Manung guy.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: I threw Swift in what the gentee official news, by
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: the way, is what, let me just go to what
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: it is now. It was came out that he got
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: downgraded and then yesterday, but I'm going to run over here.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: He fully missed practice, I believe.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: So, um, you know, the, the data puts that at
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: like something like 80% to miss.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Thursday to D he went from limited Thursday to
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: DMP Friday with the ankle questionable, uh, for a team
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: that just ruled out four core.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: That's another piece of information there, but just to note it.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: So We're assuming that we're going to see Washington in here. Now,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: let me go back. And so I threw him in.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: I threw Roman Wilson and Trey Harris, and it let
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: you afford the Bengals. You could change this around. If
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: it's a cheaper D, which it probably is, if we
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: look at ownership this week, it can be spread out.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: But I don't think people are going to care that much.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: But if you went to, say, the Commanders. is more popular,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: it would get you more money to upgrade one of
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Harris or Wilson. Obviously, Quentin Johnston ruled out there, so
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: Harris is picking up a little bit of steam. I
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: think Roman Wilson was already popping in a lot of
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: places because of the Pittman stuff. So, I don't know.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: Close enough for me. Anything you want to comment on
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: here first before we start breaking it down?
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: No, I think, man, for one thing, I very much
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: agree with this.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: I also would say the cheap wide receivers is where Initially,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: I thought everyone was going to have to go. Yesterday
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: was kind of a crazy news day. Maybe it was
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: even Thursday where both Higgins and Chase were surprised like
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: full participants in practice. And it was really weird because
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: the only news I had heard previously was like Higgins
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: was spotted at practice showing up a little bit late
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: on his own because he wasn't participating in the first
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: few drills. He was doing some kind of rehab work
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: on the side. And then a couple hours later, it's like, oh,
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: by the way, he practiced in full. he's listed as
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: a full participant. So, you know, that was strange. I,
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: I do still think like there's a chance that we
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: learned that maybe Higgins isn't going to play or he's, he's, uh,
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: he's leaning towards not playing today. So we'll see what
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: that news is like when we get it this afternoon.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it, it looked like, you know, there were,
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: there were going to be one, maybe even two potential cheap, uh,
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: since he receivers, it looked like a sick, he was
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: going to be a super popular tight end. Now that's
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: out the window, but Right as we thought, okay, now
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: there's going to be fewer ways for people to fit
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: this Detroit-Arizona game, then the Gentine news hit, and now
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: it looks like Mike Washington. It's going to be a
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: really difficult week to solve because everything that the field
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: is doing is really, really high probability of success. We
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: either have to try to thread a.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Very thin needle, or we need to.
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: Get off of it and tell a story that's not
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: likely to work out, but it has a chance to,
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: to work out. And then, then the question is like, okay,
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: if you're not playing that game, which of the ugly
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: games do you go to that has a better chance
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: of success than, than what the, uh, you know, the,
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: the Vegas total implies.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so one of the things I talked about earlier
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: with all that said, because it is a tricky week
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: from that perspective, but you mentioned it with, I always
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: forget how to pronounce his username, but like Wah-Wah-Woo-Ha or whatever,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: like Wah-Woo-Ha over here.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's Sam who I mentioned earlier.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Sam, yeah, that's right. I forgot his first name, but
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: just to note, obviously very sharp, extremely good DFS player
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: across all sports, a lot of respect for him. I
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: think the note there, I would say, is like, that
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: was one of the ones I referenced where it's like,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: there's three games. So it is what it is, but,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: but the best part, well, and you, you did talk
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: about this a little bit already, but noting it is
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: that on all the slates, like these other games still
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: pop off. Like one of the problems people like mistakes,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: I think people make when they're still 11 games on
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: the slate is like, just because this game is eight
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: points apart, nothing else is going to pop off. That
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: was in JM's information. Another, you know, sharp DFS player.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: I've been doing it for years. A lot of respect
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: for him as well over one week season says, you know,
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: He's got the seven game sample. Again, I don't like
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: the seven game and like there's a top score on
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: those slates. You got to go find. Yes, there is.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: But also you could play that top score with the
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: games that went off. It's more about when the game
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: went off, were the pieces needed in that game to
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: make an optimal or to make the lineup that we're
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: looking for? Or could you get to it in a
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: different path? And you could have just got the pieces
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: from that game and the top score from the other games.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: But the one piece that stood out was how everybody
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: just writes off the 45 point totals. Like one of
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: those games can have 60 points. Two of them can, like,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: you have no idea what's going to happen. I think
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: there was a game during one of those sets, Alex,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: where it was like, I think it was the 39
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: and a half total. And it got to 61 points.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: And it's like, no one would expect it. No, no, exactly.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: But especially in the larger field tournaments, I think there's
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: definitely some conversation to be had here for the sizing
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: of your tournaments. We already know that overstacks are better
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: in smaller field tournaments, right? If you're playing in a
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: smaller field tournament where it's like that's way more likely
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: to happen, the 39-point total that scores 60 is not
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: likely to be in many rosters. So you're not as
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: scared of it as you might be. It's no different
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: than we talk about in a super large field tournament
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: when everyone's like, well, oh, freaking– 0.1% Sean Tucker just
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: broke the slate. Well, no, he didn't because he's 0.1%.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: So he's only in a very limited number of lineups
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: and they screwed it up somewhere else. Not their fault,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: but it just happened. So it's not likely to hurt
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: you at all. The week that that happened, I'm referencing
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: was like a Bucky Irving week. A couple of years ago,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: he was chalk. He still got like 25 points and
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: did well, but Sean Tucker, I think had 38 or 37.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Didn't show up anywhere in the top 10 lineups in
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: the Millie maker, the $ 20, the big one. Now, when
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: you got the smaller field, this is where people are
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: having a tougher time of saying, why am I going
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: to try and figure out the game stack I need
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: when I can just play this game stack and then,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: you know, mix some pieces in around it. So let's
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: start having that conversation because I think that's the key
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: component here of, you know, this is the chalk style build,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: but the chalk style build is going to be fitting
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: in a lot of value pieces. right? Mike Washington, Trey Harris,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Roman Wilson. We'll see about Williams and some of these
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: other guys from your data and your data construction or
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: your roster construction data. Just talk a little bit about
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: what is good when it comes to that type of stuff.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Like where are people reaching for the chalk versus sometimes
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: like Mike Washington is a $ 4, 200 potentially starting running back here.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: We're expecting it to be the case. Where does the
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: data say to go and where does it say to avoid,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: if you will, in some of these spots like this?
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: It's a great question.
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: One thing I'll kind of caution ahead of time is
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: like we can talk about how cheap running back chalk
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: has performed in the past, but we also need to
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: contextualize that with like a lot of the time when
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: people have played cheap running back chalk in the past,
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: it's like they're, they're a little bit desperate, right? They, they,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: they know, okay, I want to jam in Puka. I
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: want to jam in Gibbs, whoever it's been from, uh,
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: from past seasons. I want to jam in Christian McCaffrey.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: And in order to do that, I'll play this guy
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: at 4,800, something like that, who like he's, he's got
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: a role. Maybe he's the pass down back, but I'm
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: playing him solely so that I can get the other
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: pieces of my lamp that I want. Whereas Mike Washington
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: here is like, if, if Gibbs is out the rest
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: of the season and Washington is just the lead back,
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: he's going to be 6,500, $ 7, 000 by the end of
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: the season. Like almost no question about it. So you're
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: getting like 2,500 to $ 3, 000 worth of discount on a player. It,
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: the New England defense is really beat up. There's no
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: Carlton Davis. There's no Christian Gonzalez. I think Barmore is
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: probably still out for them. I could be wrong about that,
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: so don't quote me on that one. But the point being,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: this is a good spot. He projects really, really well.
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: His probability of success is really high. We don't need
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: past roster construction data to tell us that, hey, Mike
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: Washington is likely to succeed and he's unlikely to fail here.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: That being said, what we have seen in the past
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: is that running back is the position you You want
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: to pay up for chalk a little bit more, and
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: you want to differentiate a little.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Bit more at the top of wide receiver.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: Now, I think one of the kind of ways we
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: can interpret that is that both the field and this
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: kind of the way it plays out, there's more of
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: a priority on the floor for running backs, more of
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: a priority on ceiling for wide receivers.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Makes sense.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: The range of outcomes is a little bit more narrow
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: for running backs, especially guys like Washington and Gibbs who
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: kind of have this full role. Uh, whereas at receiver,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: the range of outcomes is a lot wider because you
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: get so many more explosive plays. You get those games
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: like city lamb had, where the defense apparently is just like, okay,
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: with you going off and catching every, every pass. Whereas
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: there are other games where it's like, you know, CD,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: let's say CD has seven receptions in the first half.
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: Like everything they're doing in the second half is designed
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: to say, okay, he's not going to beat us in
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: the second half.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: We're going to make somebody else beat us. And then
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: they do.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: And so, uh, There's just a much wider range of
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: outcomes for receivers, and so you get that pattern in
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: the roster construction data.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: But yeah, again, what that.
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: Says is, okay, if we should be prioritizing expensive running
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: back chalk more than cheap running back chalk, if you're
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: then saying, therefore, I don't want to play Mike Washington,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: the question is, how do you fade him? You can't
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: just say, all right, I'm not going to play him.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: I'm going to throw in a different running back around him.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: that's way too unlikely to succeed. So I think what
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: you have to do is number one, like you have
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: to tell a story of how he fails. And then
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: number two, you have to just avoid that price range
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: at both the running back and the flex position.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: You need, you know, you need, uh.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: You need a structure where like your lineup can hit
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: and you don't necessarily need any of your guys to
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: be competing directly with Mike Washington. So again, like that's,
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: that's part of why this is a very complex week. And,
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of DFS concepts that in a
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: lot of weeks, like they play a role, but they're
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: subtle this week. There's nothing subtle about that. You know,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: all of these kinds of complex issues are, are really
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: important in jumping to the forefront.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's easy though, too, for like a
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: lot of people just to say, you know, this week
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: is kind of a crapshoot because it's this game or bust.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: I think the best players, the best DFS players are
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: going to win this week. You can say it any week.
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: I get it. Typically, it's what you see anyway. I'm
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: just noting it that it's like, you can't always do that.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: You go to a poker tournament. You're like, yeah, the
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: best player is probably going to end up at the
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: final table. Yes, it's a high skill game. There's a
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: lot of thought process. The reason that is that some
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: people don't recognize, and it's just a random poker analogy
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: I have, but a lot of people can pick up
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: a stack early on in a poker tournament, right? And
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: then what happens is as the blinds go up and
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: the decisions become harder, they make mistakes and there's leaks
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: and there's just errors and a better player capitalizes on
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: that and ends up stealing their stack or taking it away.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: And then there's luck involved. Somebody gets lucky on a
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: move that they made and pulls it off. This would
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: be an example for me. And it's nothing against Bryant.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: It's a good question. I'm sure other people are thinking this,
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: but thoughts on stacking up the Arizona Detroit game, but
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: then just swapping out the quarterback. You got all the
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: dudes from the game that are the most correlated with
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: to the quarterback. And you're going to hope for like
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: a 1.2 or 2.3 on your QB swap that ends
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: up bringing you ahead of all those other game stacks.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Can it work? Could it happen? And me and I
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: look like, you know, egg on my face here.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Is it foolish? Yes. Very right. And I know Alex,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: you saw this the other day too. Somebody Mayo and
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: I talked about as well. like oh i'm gonna play
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: gibbs i'm gonna play mcbride and i'm gonna play wilson
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: and then i'm gonna switch it up and go completely
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: different it's like if if all that stuff actually gets
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: there together it's just gonna be so so random i
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: do want to talk about that though versus like the
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: gibbs versus mcbride like secondary stack that's not even forcing
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: it as much as it kind of makes some sense
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: but i'll let you go ahead first.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah i i think the first the first thing i'll
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: say is like if If I were forced to do
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: something like that, the way that I would do it
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: is I would go cheap at quarterback, and I would
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: find someone who could be carried by a ceiling performance.
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: For example, you could sack this game, and then instead
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: of using Brissette or Goff, you could go Winston and neighbors,
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: because then at least you're saving money at quarterback, and
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: he has a very clear path to success. Anytime you
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: get the ceiling performance from neighbors, you know that $ 4, 800
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: Jameis Winston is going to hit. Like he did last week.
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: He came through for the early only slate for me.
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: That was a key piece of that win. But this
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: goes back to something we've talked about in the past.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: One of the first, I think, moments that really resonated
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: with people watching Leverage Lane was this concept of we're
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: not trying to build lineups that can work. We're trying
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: to build lineups that are the best possible lineups that
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: we can build, that give us the best possible chance
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: of a top 1% finish and of a takedown. And
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: doing something like this, building an Arizona-Detroit stack and then
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: using a different quarterback, it's like it can work, but
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: it's a decision that takes your top 1% probability down
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: below 1%. It can still work, but it's now half
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: a percent or 0.7%. And our goal is to build
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: a lineup that takes us from 1% to 2% or
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: to 2.5% or to 3% chance of a top 1% finish.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: That's not the kind of decision that does that.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a lot of things to be
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: said too. And even if I was doing that, just
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: of note, I would honestly go like Love, Gibbs, and
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: McBride or something. I would rather want it at the
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: onesie position of tight end, the running backs that make
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: it all happen. The other thing people forget is when
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: they play these receivers, and by the way, they learned
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: the hard way last week with Parker Washington. When you
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: play them hoping for just 15 to 20 points, that's
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: not going to do it in tournaments very often. Can it? Yes.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: Like Alex just said, we don't talk about what could
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: work or what can work or what might. because that's
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: to make that repeatable and proven and to stick around
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: and play DFS for 10 plus years and have success
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: with it. That's not going to happen. You might get your, again,
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: some people, the one big win is all they need
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: or want and they'll be happy. Great. It could happen
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: for you, but I'm trying to play it for the
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: longterm and the upside and the, and the keep putting
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: ourselves in the position to pay it off. So if
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: I was doing that, it would be something more along
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: the lines of like, I've got pieces. Someone said, Oh,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: you said, don't just play three pieces from that game.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: I would do it very intentionally. The running backs eat
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: and do all the work. It hurts. It hurts. all
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: of the other stuff of Jamison Williams, Tesla, Born, Harrison, Wilson, whatever.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: And there'll be more on Wilson. later on, but just
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: to note it, I think that's another topic. This is
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: another one since we're spending so much time on the,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: this game and the chalk build. Anyway, we still have
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: to have the Gibbs conversation separately, I believe. But, um,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Sean says might be one of those, those for 20
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: max where I only play stacks from this game and
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: just go all in super interesting week we have on
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: our hands. I'm curious your take on this. I know
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: you're not always playing 20 max or rarely ever actually,
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: but just out of curiosity, your thoughts on this.
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm going to take this in a slightly different direction.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: For one thing, I think that's totally viable. I think
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: this is a really important point in terms of like,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: if you are someone this week, for example, who has
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: a ticket into the mega and you only have one lineup,
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: I have like, I have a giant strategy posted in
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: my discord on this exact concept, but we, you need
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: to recognize that if you have one lineup or two lineups,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: you're facing a number of people who are taking Sean's
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: approach here. And, if you're in a 20 max and
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: you only have one lineup, you're facing other people who
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: are doing this. If you are in the mega, you're
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: facing a bunch of sharks who are doing this exact
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: sort of thing. The takeaway then is if you only
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: have one lineup, what are your chances of finding the
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: exactly correct combination of Cardinals and lions and doing a
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: better job of that than the people who have 20
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: chances of getting it right or 50 chances of getting
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: it right. They're going to be people with 150 different Arizona,
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Detroit sex this week where they're trying to number one,
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: get the right combination of Arizona and Detroit guys.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: And the right combination of, you know, those cheap one-offs
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: around that, uh, that make it work.
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: So if you were in that sort of situation, whether
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: it's a contest that you usually play, like maybe you just,
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: or every week you throw one lineup into the Millie
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: or you throw one lineup into, you know, uh, a
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: hundred dollar multi-entry, like whatever contest we're talking about, you know, the,
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: the three, three, three wildcat, whatever it is. Uh, if
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: you were in that situation, uh, I think you can't
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: do this. You can't play this game because your chances
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: of getting it right when other people have 150 chances
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: of getting it right are just way too low. You've
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: got to find a totally different way to play this
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: slate than the main way people are playing.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: And I'm going to stack on that. So I brought
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: it up. We are aligned, just doing it differently here.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: I would do the opposite of what Sean says here,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: if it was me, because here's the math. If you
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: have one lineup in the mega out of 700, you
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: have like a 0.001% chance, right? Like just math on paper,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: just out of the gates. If you have 20 lineups,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: but then you got to do this now, it's like
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: 30 or 80,000 people. It's actually worse. It's like you
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: have one lineup in that tournament, even though you have
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: 20 and everyone else only has 20. I know it's
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: a bit different, but I'm just noting it. I'd be
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: way more likely to go against it than not. You look,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: you can take your way this way. It's very viable
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: to make a bunch of money or cash or whatever,
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: like not make a bunch, but you know what I mean?
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: Like they all hit because the game does go off,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: but then you got to hope one of them is
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: like the, the special version that gets there against the 20,000
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: other versions or, or 10,000 other versions, depending on the math,
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: it's going to be tricky. So I think you're trying
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: to thread a very fine needle. And I think there's
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: also more things that we'll get into in a second
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: when we talk about leveraging it on how to play differently,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: but go ahead. It sounds like you got to. Yeah.
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, so I think like what you're getting at
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: there is when you have 20, when you're, when you
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: have 20 entries in a 20 max, like you want
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: enough diversification where you're not just making one bet throughout
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: all of your 20 lineups. But I, I think where
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: I'd push back is I think you can make plenty
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: of of different bets within these game sacks, right? Where
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: like summer are going to be preset oriented. Some are
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: going to be a golf oriented. You can take multiple
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: chances on like the really cheap guys. So like maybe
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: in three of your 20, you have to slot in
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: two of your 20, you have Kendrick Bourne, you have,
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: you know, Marvin Harrison jr. In five of the year 20,
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: you know, Jameson Williams in 10 of your 20, so
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: on and so forth, where like you are mixing it
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: up and then you can also mix up who you
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: have around that stack plenty. So I think you can
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: differentiate well in a portfolio. but like in order to
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: do this strategy and to do it well, I think
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: you need to be maxing whatever tournament you're doing it in.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're doing it, go all in. I'm just saying,
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I still think it's bad because at the end of
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: the day, it's like, well, you can do what you
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: just said. I think people are confusing 20 versus 80,000
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: and not thinking about it, like how they would think
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: about if they had, again, people don't even do this
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: well to your point of your strategy post, nailing it.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: It's like, if you have one lineup and that's where
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: we talk about single entry usually, but this is talking
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: about one lineup out of people have max entries in
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: a tournament. Now in 20 max, I know you have
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: the equal to everyone else. So you're saying, but I
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: got 20, but so does everyone else. But then almost
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: everybody playing like a lot, not almost everybody, but a
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: lot of people playing 20 max have 20. So it's like,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: they all have one and they're all going up against it.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: It's kind of like a single entry. So I don't know,
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: to each your own, I would play the opposite before
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: I ever go all in on that game on this slate.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: There's 11 games. Another factor I want to bring up quickly,
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: and this is, you know, This contradicts what I said earlier,
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: but I just want to bring it up because if
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: everyone else is bringing up the last seven games and
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: the last three games and all this shit, I'm bringing
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: it up. I don't care. We can go back and
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: see the Detroit Lions in a massive shootout this season, right?
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: We can go back here and look at when the
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Lions played the Bills. Different game, different things, different everything.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: I'm just showing you something because... If this game played out,
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: you know, look at the score, 41 to 31. You
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: must think that everyone had a huge game, right? Everyone
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: crushed here, I assume. Well, Goff, pretty good. 327 yards,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: four touchdowns. That'll play. Okay. Gibbs, 16 carries, 52 yards,
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: zero touchdowns. But he did have six catches for 61
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: and a touchdown. It worked out, I believe, Alex, to
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: like 23 fantasy points. Not going to do too well,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: most likely, at $ 9, 800 at 23 fantasy points. We'll leave
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Amon Ra. Obviously, he broke the slate. What would have
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: broke the slate? I believe this was also... Might've been
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: a Thursday night game, but just notice.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: This was an Island game.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: Island game. nine for 142 and two. And this isn't
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: an Amin Ra piece to say like, see, just play
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: Amin Ra. It's to explain and show that even when
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: these games go off, think about if this was on
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: a main slate right now. Amin Ra would be on
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: the lineups. You'd see him. I don't think you would
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: see a $ 9, 800 Gibbs. You might see at a onesie
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: a Laporta because he had six for 52 and one,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: but maybe not. Nothing for Jamo, nothing for Tesla, nothing
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: for anybody else. So you could have seen that. And
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: then you go to the bill side and look at it.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: 7 for 95 and 1, right? It could be like
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Laporta and McBride this week. Like maybe, you know, this
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: would show that you could play like Goff, Aminra, Laporta,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: and McBride. Because this game wouldn't have been a lot
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: too much from everybody else, but it's just like Josh Allen.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: And then people would have stacked him with who? Would
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: they have really stacked him with just Kincaid or James
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: Cook and Kincaid with an Amin Ra run back? It'll
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: just be so rare. It's all this could happen. You
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: could extrapolate all this over into this exact same game.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: but there's 10 more games on the slate and it
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: just goes to show it's the things that did fail.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: I think it was Sam again in his article or
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: an ETR that said it was the week of the
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: live final. It's actually the week of the penthouse process
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: that I trademarked where it was the week, what he's
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: talking about in that article is, is it was the
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: week Brenton Strange was popular and Brian Thomas Jr. was popular,
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: but you actually needed the flip side with Aaron Rodgers, Wilson,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Devontae Adams at the time, Brian Thomas Jr., and Strange.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: You had those five, and it wasn't even the big
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: game on the slate. There was another... massive game and
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: he's like i had pieces of it but i didn't
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: have this guy and i had the guy with the
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: zero when there was 50 points scored and all that
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: of course right well that's the tricky part about this
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: type of thing and there's going to be other places
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: on the slate you can go i don't have any
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: other thoughts to this stuff it's not to to prove
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: like this game equals this game because my whole point
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: is you don't but it's more to show the concept
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: of even when you have 70 plus points are you
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: really threading the needle to that exact version? Or would
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: that even be one of your 20? I don't know.
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: Would you have a Goff, Amon Ra, Laporta with Kincaid?
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Kind of would be like the most common. Maybe the
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: James Cook one and you get away with it because
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: he was all right. But I don't think a lot
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: of people would have had the right version of this
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: on that Sunday in a smaller field, single entry type tournament.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there are a couple of things here.
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: First is like, I was also doing a little bit
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: of study of this game because I have a mega
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: ticket to the bills.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Rams game on a Monday night. So, uh, nice. Yeah.
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: We were already kind of looking at that, but, um,
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: as far as the main slate is concerned, I think
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: the biggest thing to take away from this is like,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: I don't like this comparison to the Cardinals game because
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: the game script would be shocking if it played out
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: the same way this bills game did, which was the
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: bills went way up early and then Detroit had to
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: play catch up.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Just to get as close as they did.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: That's why I removed that though. I'll push back. Cause
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: that's why I said that I'm not comparing this at
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: all to this game. I'm comparing that people like, again,
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: it's not the same game. I'm just noting, but Tesla
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: is going to be pushed into these game stacks that
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: people look at. Oh, there he is. But young Tesla,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: but just, you know, people are going to say JMO
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: instead of this. People are going to say, um, born
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: instead of Palmer or Shakir or whatever, and try and
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: make these things work. All I'm saying is it's hard
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: to thread the needle. Even when, you know, there's going
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: to look at the Chicago game. This it's concept, not example,
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: totally different game. No prep, no thought at all. if
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: Chicago remember the week, everyone's like, why the hell did
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: I play Loveland? Well, let me tell you this. If
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: I told you there was going to be 50 plus
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: points from just Chicago before the game started, would you
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: have wanted to play Loveland? Yes. Okay. So you can
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: end it there. So you look, you want to be
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: in the spot and I get it, but I'm just
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: saying how the spot can still fool you or get
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: you because you just, cause you know, there's going to
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: be points there. That's what your point I'm going back
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: to it, but that's kind of what you're saying when
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: you're looking at like one mega entry or something like that,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: where it's like, yeah, you're going to be in the
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: right spot probably. And it could really go off, but
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: are you going to have that version? And then are
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: you going to have the version that also differentiates and
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: that nails it and differentiates enough that others don't have
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: the same thing? Or can you really separate yourself talking
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: about how to leverage the shock build by getting completely unique,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: but not in a stupid way in a, in a
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: smart way. And we'll talk about more of that in
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: a second. I'll let you keep going on. I just
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: wanted to point that out that I, it's not about
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: comparing the game flows or how they played out or whatever.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: It's just showing that in a 70 point plus total,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: that doesn't mean you're, you got it all right and
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: got away with it. That's the tricky part.
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: I'll bring up one other point about, about that, uh,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: that Island game that we saw with, with Buffalo and Detroit,
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: which is, that was a game that DJ Moore left
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: early with an injury.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: And, and I, I only bring that up to say like,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: if you're struggling.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: To find the, you know, the, The inspiration in your
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: mind of how you can fade this game because you
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: just think it's it's overwhelmingly likely to succeed.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Remember that, you know, NFL is weird. NFL is random
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: and injuries happen.
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: And maybe, you know, what if in like the second quarter,
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: like McBride has already left the game injured and Jameer
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: Gibbs has already left the game injured, like weird, weird
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: stuff happens in the NFL. And so if, if you're
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: looking for just inspiration to fade this game, just remember
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: how crazy stuff is and, and how, you know, random,
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: a lot of these runouts are. And as you said,
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: I think your, your point about Loveland is really good too,
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: because it also brings up the idea of like, okay,
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: well then we should ask why did Loveland fail? How
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: did Loveland fail in a game where they scored 50 plus? Oh,
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: they ran for like 400 yards combined.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: And so we can tell different stories. If you are
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: fading this game, like it's unlike the Jacksonville Cincinnati game
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: last week, as I said, where I was comfortable not
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: having any piece of that game. I think this week
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: is like If you're fading it, all right, well, maybe
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: I'll use Jeremiah Love and hope that he does everything
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: for their offense. Or I'll go Gibbs and Detroit and say, again,
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: what if Detroit wins this game 27-10? And it goes
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: way under the total because the Detroit defense is a
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: lot better than people expect this week. They've been atrocious
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: on the back end, but at least they're getting pressure.
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: They're a top 10 defense so far in sack rate.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: QB hit rate, pressure rate, all this stuff. It's not
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: like Brissette handles pressure all that well. So maybe that's
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: how it's done. And the other thing there is like
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: Detroit's biggest weakness, as I mentioned earlier, they've allowed them
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: the highest explosive pass rate in the league so far. Well,
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: Arizona doesn't like to throw the ball down the field.
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: They like to do everything underneath. And part of that
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: is because Brissette doesn't have a ton of time back
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: there to get the ball downfield. And so maybe it
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: fails that way. There are routes, I think, for this
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: game to fail. I definitely think that I personally am
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: leaning towards fading this game and just trying to find
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: the right way to fade it.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get to leverage lane after and we've got
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: some thoughts there for sure. But I want to note,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: final topic on this, definitely have to have the Gibbs
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: conversation as a whole because I think it still is
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: going to be, I think Gibbs can be popular no
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: matter what, right? Like it's just, even if people don't
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: get to this game, they still can easily, think about
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: every stack that's cheaper easily fits Gibbs and he's just
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: popping off the page. So you had like a little
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: flow chart a couple of weeks ago that we talked
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: about where it was like, You know, is Gibbs on
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: the slate?
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: Play him. No. You know, play two wide receiver studs.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: And you had the conditional ownership over at Blick Analytics
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: to show that off. And it was all super valuable stuff.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: It's going to be just as valuable as this week
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: as usual, maybe even more. But what is the Gibbs
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: conversation for people out there? Just you're the best at
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: breaking this stuff down. So I think give us the
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Gibbs breakdown here. from all angles. And then I'm chomping
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: at the bit from the game theory side about leveraging it.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Like when you had that Washington conversation earlier, I can't
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: wait to get there. So we'll talk about that in
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit.
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that flow chart was basically in week three, I
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: think it was. It was like we, that was the
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: first week we had the conditional ownership tool. And we
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: saw the week prior that there's really, really low combinatorial
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: ownership of stud wide receivers together because everyone wants at
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: least one stud running back. And so, you know, I,
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: I played the, I played, I think that week I
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: played St. Brown and CD lamb together and then Gibbs
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: went off and I was like, you know what? Maybe,
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: maybe it's not the best idea to do the double
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: stud wide receiver idea on Gibbs slates because he's just
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: so damn likely to succeed that like, even if both
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: of my receivers hit, I'm not getting the separation from
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: the field because I'm competing with, with lineups that have
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: Gibbs and one of those studs. I'm not, I'm not
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: gaining as much as I otherwise could. from that combination
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: going off, uh, the way, you know, it did last week,
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: no Gibbs on the main slate.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: And then what did we see?
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: We saw like Nico Collins and CD lamb get there
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: in a huge way. Uh, so, uh, it came to
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: fruition last week as well. Um, and so Gibbs is
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: on this slate. Maybe we don't go to the double
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: stub wide receivers, but I will say like, at least
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: this time Gibbs is $ 9, 800. So he's in his own, uh,
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: price point tier. And I'm looking at conditional ownership now
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: is like one of the ways that Gibbs doesn't have
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: the ceiling performance as we saw in that Buffalo game
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: is okay.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: What if St.
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: Brown has the ceiling performance instead? And sure enough in,
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: in St. Brown lineups, JSN projected for 3.9% conditional ownership
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: compared to, uh, 27 and a half percent conditional ownership
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: for Jameer Gibbs with St. Brown in that's interesting, right?
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Like St.
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: Brown and JSN, no Gibbs. I think that's a, that's
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: a potential leverage lane candidate. I don't have my leverage
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: lane figured out yet. So That is, that's definitely a possibility.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: That was with JSN and Amon Ra. I was going
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: to ask, funny, because I was about to ask you
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: that at the end of what you said, but didn't
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: we look at it pre-show and Gibbs and JSN was
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: almost 6%, just those two?
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: Let's see.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: So it's like half the ownership to go to the
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: double stud version at wide receiver and leave Gibbs.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Out of it, I think.
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: So Gibbs, JSN, whoops, with Gibbs in, JSN is 5.3%
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: conditional ownership.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: So that's really interesting, right?
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: It's like, One of the reasons why these combinations are
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: as low-owned as they are is because you run into
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: price prohibitiveness, I guess is the best way to say that, right?
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: And so it's interesting that at $ 1, 900 more, the conditional
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: ownership for JSN is higher with Gibbs than it is
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: with Amon Ross St.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: Brown.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: That, to me, is really, really interesting. That's very telling.
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: And yeah, that's definitely a potential leverage lane.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think one of the things that I
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: would say too is, again, like now we'll get into
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: it a little bit of the accounting for certain things.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: I've got a couple that pop right off the top.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: It's like if you're going, you know, Darnold and JSN
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: as a stack, for example, that can definitely hit. We've
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: seen it already multiple times this season where it was
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: right up in the mix or very close. Then what if.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: What if Jamar Chase plays? Well, here's an example. First
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: of all, how many people are going to have JSN
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: and Jamar Chase? Probably not many. But just an example
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: as well is like, oh, wait, I have to afford that. Well,
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: and I probably can't get to Gibbs. You know what
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: I would do? I would play Sam Darnold. I would
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: play JSN. I would play Jamar chase and I would
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: play Jeremiah love because now I'm hoping I'm not, I'm
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: accounting for Gibbs and that game on the other side,
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: because what would slow the game down, possibly flip the
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: game script and keep Gibbs off the field from paying
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: off a $ 9, 800 price tag. People say, oh, there's no
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: way that happens.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: I don't care.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: I'm explaining why I would play it this way because
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: it's the method to do it. You can't get to
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: Gibbs in that lineup, but you should be accounting for it.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: You can just sit back on your laurels and say,
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: you know what? He's just not going to pay off
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: the $ 9, 800 price tag, 20 points. That's fine too. You
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: don't have to do that. I'm just explaining how I
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: would think about things. When you talked about it earlier
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: about Mike Washington, assuming the gentee news comes true. I mean,
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: like I said, very rare. Somebody practices on Thursday, you know,
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: limited and then gets DMP on Friday and comes back
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: and plays. on Sunday. But just noting it, it's like
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: right away, how do I get away from what a
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: Mike Washington lineup, which is typically going to be a
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: kind of quote unquote stars and scrubsy build from what
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: we saw on the screen right now, where it's like
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: you got two cheap wide receivers, a cheap guy, but
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: then you fit the big game stack. All right, what
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: about a more balanced build? Well, I know what that
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: would look like because I can double whammy it. I
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: cannot play Washington. I cannot play McBride. and I can
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: play Brock Bowers. And is he going to have ownership too? Yeah, some,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: but that's also a potential more balanced build because I'm
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: kind of just sticking it through that way. I'm not
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: going to have Washington. Now I can pay up to
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: a different, another prime example though, exactly this. What is,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: it might not be that close, but it's just that
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: you can get there somewhere else in your lineup if not.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: But what is the price of Washington and McBride? It
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: is $ 3. 10,900 and then you go to bowers and
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: go back to my guy love again and it's more
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: but on this slate you can find it i'm just
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: showing the difference of more balanced build but it's like
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: that's not a 2v2 but it's just to show and
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: explain again is way more people will have washington with
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: mcbride And yes, Gibbs can still fit in or not.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: I'm just noting that if you did some sort of
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: flip where you're going to account for, okay, who covers
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: off Washington, but also can beat McBride. But then how
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: do you cover it off for McBride? Most people just
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: put Michael Wilson, right? I'm sure you'll see that. I
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: don't know. Look this one up at a random thought.
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Look up Bowers with Michael Wilson.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: You want conditional ownership here?
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just curious. It's a little bit off the ball.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: It might not be that good, but I want to
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: see it still. I like learning the stuff.
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: Here, let me share my screen just so people can
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: kind of follow along.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, do that. I'll remove this, and you can pull
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: that one up. All right.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Can you see it?
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: We will now. Just had to move it across.
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: Perfect. All right. So if I want to bring in,
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: let's go Michael Wilson. Now we go to tight end,
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: and we see.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Price-wise. So McBride.
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: Goes from 42.5% to 60.3% conditional ownership, and Bauer's drops
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: from 11.8% to 6.6% conditional ownership. So yeah, that's a
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: very unique pair, and it's leveraging a massively owned McBride
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: in a way where this shows us how many people
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: are full on game stacking here. This is a much
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: higher conditional ownership than usual for an expensive tight end
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: alongside an expensive receiver teammate where, you know, a lot
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: of the time people are afraid to put these two
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: together because they worry, Hey, when Michael Wilson has that
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: really big game, it means McBride isn't So this is,
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: this is another like really, really good combination. And I, I,
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: I definitely won't steal this from you if you don't
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: use it, or if you want to use it, but
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: if you end up going first in leverage lane and
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: you don't use it, this too is a leverage lane
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: candidate for me.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Oh, actually, spoiler alert, but Michael Wilson will be in
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: my leverage lane, just maybe not the way you might think.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: But just noting it, what I want to see though, again,
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: this is just a private, I'm actually, I'm very surprised
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: that it's only, what was it? 6.6, you said, for Wilson? Okay,
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I'm very surprised because For you and for myself and
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: for most that are playing the game, that's just a
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: natural common thought. If I'm going to cover off McBride
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: with a guy that can actually cover him, Bowers, then
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: I'm going to need to figure out where does the
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: McBride stuff go? So I can double what you're double
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: separating yourself, right? Like you're moving away, but I wanted
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: to see what love looks like. You can do this
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: one first if you want, but I really want to see,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: cause I thought the 6.6 would be much higher. I
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: want to see what love in a more balanced build
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: because love is also going away from a $ 4, 200 running
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: back there where you're kind of double flipping it. What is,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: I want to see Washington and McBride. I don't know
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: if you have the update on Washington yet for ownership though.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: Do you? Uh, yeah, I do.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Um, uh, real, real quick though. I wanted to, to
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: show this as well.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: So like, I think one of the reasons why you,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: you were surprised at that is because you're thinking about
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: it in the sense of, okay, I don't have Jacoby
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: percent in this lineup. So then what am I doing?
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: But if we, if we go Michael Wilson in Jacoby
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: percent out of the lineup, now it does come down
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: a little bit, right? McBride goes from 60% conditional ownership
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: to 31%. Bowers goes up from that 6% conditional to
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: almost 9% conditional.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: So that brings, that closes the gap a little bit.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: If we also say no Jared Goff in this lineup,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: now that probably moves it even further. Now we get
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: a same idea, right? Conditional ownership for McBride stays at
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: about 35%. And then Bowers now goes up to his
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: conditional ownership is like right in line with his overall ownership.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: So I think that's, a really cool way to kind
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: of walk through this. And now we can backtrack and,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: and please remind me what, what you wanted me to
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: check here.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: This is, I mean, this is awesome. So we could
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: go for days, but I want, I want to see
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: first off, I'd like to see Washington with McBride.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: By the way, the other thing we can do here,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: like if, if you don't want to think about it
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: through the conditional stuff, you can just put them both
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: in and see what the conditional owner or the combinatorial
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: ownership is of the two.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: So this says 22.8% of the.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: Field is expected to have both Mike Washington and Trey
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: McBride here in the, in the mega Millie. So let's
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: get rid of him for a moment and just look
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: at what conditional ownership looks like. And so you can see, yeah,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: so many people who are using Mike Washington are using
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: those savings to go up and get Trey McBride. And
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: then you also have this interesting difference in conditional ownership
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: here because Washington and Bowers are on.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: The same team.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: So as soon as someone wants Mike Washington in, that
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: makes them less likely to get Bowers, which makes them
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: even more likely to get McBride. So in addition to
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: just like Mike Washington is a vehicle to get to
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: this game stack, you also have, and people are more
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: likely to then pay for McBride as the pay up
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: tight end because they don't want to double up on
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: Raiders here with Bowers as well.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: Now let's see Love with Bowers.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's go here. Let's go Jeremiah Love.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: And this will finalize it for me because it's going
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: to be two things. It's going to be one, what
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: they are versus what we just looked at, and then
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: also what they are versus the Mike Wilson version.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: So here now you're seeing, this is like the thing
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: that you're kind of, this is more what you expected
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: to see ahead of time, right? It's like when people
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: go Jeremiah Love, okay, now they're less likely to use McBride.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: They're more likely to use Bowers. So this is kind
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: of the thought of, this is showing, You know, the
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: train of thought that you were already kind of on
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: top of. The other thing I want to mention here
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: is before I even click Jeremiah Love here, let's just
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: notice right now I've got him projected at 4% ownership.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: I think this is going up. I think he's going
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: to be like 10%, something like that. Reason being, I
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: haven't seen a show yet this week fail to bring
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: up Love as like one of the main ways that
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: you can leverage this game. And I think people are
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: really going to kind of just enjoy that thought because
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: I think it's a sharp one. I just think it's
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: too sharp to not be played more than it's being
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: currently projected.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: All right. Let's see. Is that true? Just a second. Yeah,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: I told people this was going to happen. This was
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: in the Discord. Everybody can go get it in Shiba
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: Nation Discord from two days ago. When you see 100
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: posts come out about this Marv Harrison trade and it's
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: nonstop and now we get it.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: Right now, To an unspecified team? What the hell is that?
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we knew this was going to shake it up
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: just because. And I was about to use it, and
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: that was about to be part of my leverage lane too.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: But it's just funny because I was just about to
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: tell you to put Marv Harrison into that same version
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: instead of Love, but it's pointless now. So yeah, slate
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: changes on the fly. Can definitely see that I posted
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: about that two, three days ago. I told you it's
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: going to happen. Anytime this type of shit goes on,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: we're doing this too long, Alex. This is the thing.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: It's not a victory lap. It's a note of like,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: this is the setup that you're used to. Like when
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: you've been playing this game a long time, you just
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: know that shit's going to happen. So first reaction to that,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: we'll go back here and then we'll get into some
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: more stuff in a minute. But first reaction on that,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: the target tree just got tighter. Yeah.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, first question is like, does that make Kendrick
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: Bourne chalk?
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to pick up steam now. Cause
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: think about what you can do in that version. Now
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: you don't have to think about Mike Washington or these guys,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: if you don't want to write Mike Washington in the road,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: just because whatever reason you could say now, I.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: Mean, he's still going to be massively owned.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's not going to go down. I'm just
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: saying like, or down crazy, but I'm saying, I think
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: let's go back. Let's, let's do this then.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: Now we'll go back to, I think, I think the
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: biggest thing here is like, I, I already think that
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: I was highest in the industry on, on Michael Wilson's ownership.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: I've got him at 37% or high stakes in, Ownership
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: right now, 36% single entry, 27% MME.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: He might get to 50%.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: In fact, I will be pretty surprised if he doesn't
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: get to 50%. So now I think that also takes
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: percent from... I think I had him at like 27%.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: He could get to 35%. This could be crazy. I
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: think I'm getting closer and closer to knowing my leverage length.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It might be stealing mine now because... I mean,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: people could probably figure out what mine was already, and
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: now his ownership just went up. So let me see here.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: I'm just trying to see how you can finagle this down.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: I'm just going to try and use like the chalk
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: of the chalk. 11-3 left. I'm just trying to see
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: like a few other spots.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: I can't believe it's an unspecified team. What do you
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: mean it's an unspecified team? Who's he being traded to?
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Probably going to be the Colts. 27-7.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: I'm just like, we're so, so close. I think people
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: were okay with Tennessee, right? Was another one they were playing?
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: If it's the Chiefs, I just saw that Davis Maddock
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: tweeted 50 minutes ago, like a hypothetical that Kansas City
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: was about to trade for Marvin Harrison instead of bringing
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: back Tyreek Hill.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: Well, hey, that's actually a very high possibility, actually, because
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: the other thing that was tweeted out yesterday, so I
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: forget who posted this one, but was like the Tyreek
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: Hill stuff with his girlfriend or whatever and all the
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: stuff that came out now. It's like he was trying
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: to get signed or do something before that came out.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be able to sign
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: him right now. So I actually think that could be
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: the case.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: They shouldn't. He's a scumbag.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. Marvin Mahomes is going to be the new thing.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: That's what it's going to be. I think we called it.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: I think Maddox called it. So shout out to him.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: I still can't believe this. How has the team not
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: been specified yet?
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: It's just weird that they would put that out and
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: then not say anything. But anyway, this is a lineup
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: I just put on the screen now. Look at this one.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: Jacoby Wilson born McBride. You get Gibbs and you can
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: get JMO in there and it just rounds itself out
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: with the Swift Washington and Titans is, is the low
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: price D that everybody's been talking about all week, right?
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: If you're going to just punt and play a cheap defense, that's, um,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: that's kind of where people can land. So that's only
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: going to pick up ownership from here, by the way,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: that doesn't have any updates in it yet. This was
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: still our initials. Our new one comes out around lunchtime today.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: So just to note it. Yeah. That's a quick thought there. Let's,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: let's talk about game stacks. let's move to some different
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: places that we can go. I don't know if you
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: have any other pieces. I want to talk about those ones,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: you know, a couple of certain ones, but is there
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: anything you want to talk about there? If not, people
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: want to talk about the game stacks we can go
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: to and other spots we can stack up here. Yeah.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: Uh, before we get to other stacks and this is
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: kind of a, a, a segue to it. Uh, I
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: think we should spend a moment talking about the, the
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: cheap wide receiver chalk that people are going to in
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: order to fit some of this stuff. So like Trey Harris,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: Roman Wilson, Casey Concepcion, uh, Antonio Williams, how do you
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: feel about these plays?
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: Because personally, I think Roman Wilson is really interesting.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to end up talking more about
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: Pitt Indy when we talk about some other potential stacks.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: But I have mixed feelings about this.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: I think no Pittman is great for that offense.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: Just, I don't know if, did you see, have you
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: seen like.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: What Aaron Rodgers is mouthing towards the sidelines every time
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: he like targets Pittman? Yes.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: Okay. I believe it was like worst effing play call
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: ever or something like that.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: No, no. The first was like, this, this guy fucking sucks.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: He's like, this motherfucker sucks. He's so fucking bad or
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: something like that. two weeks ago, maybe three weeks ago
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: at this point. And then the last time was like, he,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 3: you know, he threw like a six yard slant to Pittman.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: It was behind him.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: The defender got his hand in, knocked it away. But
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: Rogers was apparently mad at Pittman for not catching it.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: And he just mouths like this guy, this fucking guy.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: And like clearly doesn't want Pittman on the field. And
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: it's not his called. Like he's, He's being on the field.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: Plays are being called for him, and Rodgers wants no
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: part of it. So no Pittman is really interesting. Now
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: he gets to throw to guys he actually wants to
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: throw to.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: There's another guy, too.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: Who's the other guy this week that's on that squad?
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: We're definitely going to talk about that stack because I
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: think it's interesting.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Jeremy Bernard is interesting, too.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: This is the point I wanted to make, which is
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: Wilson has been very good.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: He's been very effective. He's getting open.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: He's leading the team in DBOA when targeted offensively. like
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: that matters to me a lot with Rogers, right? Cause
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: we know that Rogers finds, finds things that work and
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: just sticks with it. And he loses patience with things
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: that aren't working. And so when he's throwing to guys,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: it's not working. He's, he just might not keep throwing
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: to them. Uh, so that part is really good for Wilson. Um, the,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: the matchup is also good for Wilson in the, in
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: the sense that, you know, uh, Indianapolis is at least
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: showing signs of being a slot funnel and given their
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: outside corners, like it would make sense if they are, but,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: Pittman has been playing more on the outside. Fryermuth has
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: been like the main quote unquote slot guy. Jeremy Bernard
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: has been playing primarily on the outside and Bernard actually
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: ran 20 routes to Wilson's 18 last week. It wouldn't
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: surprise me if like Wilson goes from 18 routes to,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: you know, 20, 25, something like that. And Bernard goes
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: from 20 to like 35, 37, you know, however many
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: dropbacks Rogers has. So, I have Roman Wilson projected better
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: by a pretty considerable margin, but I also have scenarios
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: mixed into the projections where that's wrong. Wilson shouldn't be
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: projected out ahead of what he's already been doing, and
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: it's Jeremy Bernard who should be getting the main benefit
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: from no Pittman. So I think that's at least an
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: interesting one to talk through.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm there with you on that one. I'm
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: not really super high on the other spots. That's kind
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: of the one I'm most focused on only because I
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: don't really love the other game stacks or things. And
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: I even think there's still a problem. There's a, there's
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: a hole to poke in that Pittsburgh spot as well
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: as maybe it's an opportunity, which is who do you
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: want to run it back with? I think I know
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: what you'll say, but I'm just curious there.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's downs, right?
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of people would go to Taylor though.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: I think that's what a lot of people think is
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: like a way to get different or I can fit
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: because that stack is so cheap. You can now fit
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Gibbs and Taylor, for example, but downs has been getting
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: loose like crazy. And he's a guy that just fills
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: out your wide receiver positions and then you can pay up.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: But I think in that lineup, you might still be
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: able to get a really nice wide receiver in your flex.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: and be able to bust it up that way. So
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: I think that's truly interesting. I'm not actually as high
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: on the other stuff. Someone did say it earlier, which
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: I thought was intriguing, of like the Sean Payton now
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: calling the plays. He's over it because last week should
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: have been a Knicks week and it wasn't really. And
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: it's like, man... but it's still the same stuff. Like
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: it still is Knicks, Waddle, Sutton, Pat Bryant's out. Like
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: you have Harris on the other side that you could
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: go to. There's no Quentin Johnson. We got to wait
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: and see on McConkie. Like that's a way to make
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: that one work. So to me, if I was going
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: the Harris route, it's going to be way more of
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: something like, so it'd be something like that. Or it
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: would be something like a unique build, probably more for
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: afternoon only, to be honest, but like a RJ Harvey
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: Harris or something and just hope that that continues. But
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: it's so hard to get to Harvey on the main slate.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: And obviously, you'll keep Mitchells on the other side as well.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, one of the really kind of hard
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: things to think through with Denver there is the problem
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: didn't seem to me to be the play calling. The
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: problem was that Nick's was staring at open receivers down
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: the field and saying, no, I'm throwing this two yards
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: to RJ Harvey instead. And so like, unless, unless Sean
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: Payton is calling plays where he doesn't give Nick's a
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: check down outlet and just says, you're throwing this past
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: 20 yards down the field, or I'm going to punch
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: you in the face. Like, I don't, I don't see
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: how a ton changes there. We also, now one thing
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: I will say there is like, I made this point
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: last week. We have seen Knicks do a lot better,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: both from a fantasy perspective and a real-life perspective, against
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: bad teams. And in game scripts where you don't really
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: expect fantasy goodness to come from, most quarterbacks, they're best
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: in a trailing situation or in a neutral script, and
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: they get conservative with a lead.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: Knicks is almost the other way around.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: It's like he plays nervous, he plays timid in close
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: games or when they're trailing, and when they're winning by
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: a lot, He's really confident and he's willing to throw downfield.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: And so maybe it works out that way. Uh, and
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: I do, I definitely have some interest in this Denver
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: LA game. That game is an afternoon game, right?
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: It's the early afternoon. So there's three games in the afternoon.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: That's the chalk game. It's the game everyone will pivot
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: to in Seattle and San Francisco because of JSN and
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: CMC and Kittle and all the options on that squad.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: Mike Evans is back full go. So however that could
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: work out, he could be no go after the first
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: quarter again, the way his injuries shake out. But just
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: noting it, I don't think anybody would flip or switch
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: to the... other side and play the game that starts
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit earlier but the thing is if you're
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: dead from the morning you're probably dead already like you
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: should be looking at those swaps i do think there's
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: some interest to that lac denver spot just of like
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: trying to make it work the problem is is like
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: how how does it actually fit versus the pricing and
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: all that other stuff so yeah i.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: Think well with denver you you can do that in
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: a cheaper way and then you can flip um uh,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: Cardinals beat reporter said it's not, you know, as, as
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: you and I are live, like we're getting all our
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: news right now from the comment section.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: So keep it up guys. It's really helpful.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: Undisclosed team. And now they're telling us who it's not.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: Why don't you just tell us who it is? Like
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: what's going on here? Well, who gives a shit? It's
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: Marv Harrison. Like, just tell us what team he's going to.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: They're acting like it's the biggest trade of all time
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: in the history of the NFL. Like this is nuts. Yeah.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: Uh, we, we have, we have some in the chat
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: also pointing out like no sir Tanner Moss, by the way,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 3: like we, we have so many, uh, offensive injuries that,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: that we're paying attention to this week, but, but yeah,
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: like Denver secondary is decimated and also, uh, the new
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: England secondary is decimated. So some interesting stuff with Las Vegas,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: which I'll talk about momentarily as well, but, but man, I,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: I don't like our chances of getting out of here
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: in an hour and a half by the way.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: No, but you know what happens? We keep an eye
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: on it. Like if it's going to be boring or stuff,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: I always said this, it's funny because all we talk
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: about is DFS, but if you talk about like the
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: marketing hat for a minute or like the content creator hat,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: founder hat, whatever you want to call it, that I
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: try and sometimes put on for people is like, People
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: always say it's like shorter is better. I say less
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: is more about a lot of things. I do. And
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: I agree with it, to be honest, across almost everything.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: But if you're putting out good content and people are
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: sticking around for it and they want it... I think
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: Joe Rogan, not vouching for the guy, but I'm explaining it,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: of like three hours in a podcast. People, when he
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: first came out, said like, that's going to be horrible. Like,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: who's going to listen for three hours? I don't care
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: what you think about the guy. I'm not vouching or
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: going again. I'm just saying it's clearly worked. The guy's
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: made hundreds of millions of dollars now, whatever, off of
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: a three-hour podcast.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: If people want to leave, they can leave. They want
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: to stick around. We got more coming. But I think
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: it's been good conversation the whole way. And like I said,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: I think it's one of the most important weeks, at
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: least this season, if not episodes of this that you
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: and I have ever done, because it is a big
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: puzzle to figure this out this week. So where do
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: you want to go next then on these? You want
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: to move to the game stacks a little bit? You
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: said the Las Vegas going against this decimated secondary for
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: the Patriots. Where did you want to go with that one? Well, yeah.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: So I want.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: I wanted to kind of remind people, like one of
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: the things I said off the bat is when we're
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: fading these like really obvious spots, both the Detroit Arizona
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: game and the, and Mike Washington is like, I don't
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: think we should just be pivoting off of them. I
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: think we need to be telling the story of how
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: they fail. So what if new England jumps out to
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: a big lead? Vegas has to throw all game. And
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: like Washington ends up with 12 carries a few receptions
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: and no touchdowns. And one of the ways that happens
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 3: is if they're throwing all game and it's, it's all
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 3: Brock Bowers and Trey Tucker and, instead against this decimated
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: New England secondary. And so that's something I'm going to
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: explore is Kirk Cousins doubles that leave Washington out. I'm
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: not totally sure who I'd bring back with New England.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: Maybe Pop Douglas is another cheap option. No Mac Collins
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: this week, so Pop should get more routes. Maybe you
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: go Dobbs as a result. So like I said, multiple
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: options there, but yeah, that's an intriguing route to me.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: I also think we should bring up Denver. Just going
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: right back to that. Like one of the other thoughts
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: there is okay.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: No pet. Brian is really important to me. A lot
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: of the, a lot of the routes that.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: Nick's was turning down that were wide open were deep digs,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: basically like the same route over and over the same
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: combination of receivers where it was waddle running a clear
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: out route and Pat Bryant running a deep dig kind
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: of coming into the middle. Bryant could have had five
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: receptions for 100 yards on that route alone last week,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: and Nick's just kept turning it down. What if that's
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: Sutton this week? And what if he actually throws it
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: this week? Because I'm sure that Sean Payton grilled him
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: in the film room this week, saying, we need you
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: hitting this route.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: It's called well. It's timed well. We got the right coverage.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: It's wide open. Waddle's doing his job with the clear out.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: You need to hit this.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: And now this week, that might be Sutton running that
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: route with Waddle as the clear out. So I'm definitely
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: intrigued by Nick's doubles. I also like that because if
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 3: we didn't get Mike Washington, one of my favorite plays
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: of the week was potentially going to be Keaton Mitchell,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: whose role keeps growing. And I think that McDaniel has
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: no choice but to keep him heavily involved when they
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: don't have Ladd McConkie. Probably they don't have Quentin Johnston
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: like they need playmaking somewhere. Uh, he had, he had
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: three design targets last week. I think they're going to
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 3: continue to do that. He's getting more and more on
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: the ground. And the thing about him as a bring
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: back is, you know, when he hits, he's probably hitting
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: because he gets at least one like explosive run or
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: explosive reception. And so, uh, they're like, I wouldn't be
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: using Keaton as a pivot off of Mike Washington, but
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: Keaton and Mike Washington. And now you have all the
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: money in the world to spend at tight end and
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: wide receiver. That's an interesting way to flip the build.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: So yeah, kind of a lot of thoughts there.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: One right away, because this just ties in a little
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: bit more late swap stuff for the people as well. $ 11, 700
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: for Bo Nix and Jalen Waddell. I know you talked Sutton.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: We could summon in the chat that Mims could be,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: by the way, a great leverage lane on Mims last year.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: So maybe that could be the case with no Pat Bryant.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: But just noting it, again, don't think people will do this,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: even though it fits exact. Do you know who's 6,200
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: and 5,500?
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Is that percent Wilson?
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: Yes. Yeah. Exact. What exact two V two swap right there.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: And I know that people will catch on or figure
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: it out. Like it's just, it's, I didn't hear anybody
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: point that out this week yet at all. And it's like,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: that's the type of stuff that we look at where
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: when people move things around in the afternoon, I don't
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: think that would be their first thought, right? They're not prepared.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: They're not thinking ahead about looking at this type of stuff.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: They're just acting on the think ahead the better.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah. That's the other thing I like about this, this, uh,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: this Denver idea is you can get contrarian early, uh,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 3: you can have a lineup where like you're contrarian in
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: a spot or two early. And if it doesn't go
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: perfectly well, where like, you know, okay, I'm still, I'm
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 3: behind some combinations that have full access to the Detroit,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: Arizona stack. You can pivot to Denver where, you know,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: you mentioned like, if you're dead, you're dead anyway.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter if you pivot.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 3: The way that I like to use light swap is
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 3: more like if I'm in good shape, but not great shape,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: that's when I want to pivot. I had a subscriber
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: this past week who won 50K, made the brilliant pivot
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: and a really, really gutsy pivot of Bowers and Taequann
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: Thornton instead of Kittle and Jordan Addison last week. He
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 3: was in good shape after the early games he had.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: He had CeeDee Lamb, he had Nico Collins, but he
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: also had a couple busts. So he was like, I'm
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: in good shape. I can make real noise here, but
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: I'm not in great shape. If the chalk hits for
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: me here, I'm going to be beaten by a handful
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: of people. Made that aggressive pivot to Bowers and Taequann
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: Thornton and ended up third place in the, in the
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: wildcat for a 50 K off of 33, 33 entry. So, uh, again,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 3: shout out to him. I gave him a ton of
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: credit in the discord. Like that was one of the
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: boldest and sharpest, uh, late swap decisions I've seen. We
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: can do something similar this week with this Denver stack
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: where you can play it. We're like, uh, I think the,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: the Denver stack, especially if you're using Keaton as the
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 3: bring back is, is a lot cheaper than the Arizona
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: Detroit stack in at least most iterations. So you can
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: do something like Denver, uh, uh, Denver stack with Gibbs
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: that can pivot to a Detroit over stack without Gibbs.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: And you just hope that it's, you know, uh, it's,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: it's Amon raw and Jameson maybe and Laporta or something
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: like that this week. Uh, and, and Gibbs has the
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: 15 to 20 purple point performance instead of the 40
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: point performance.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: So I, I like that route a lot as well. Um,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: We brought up Colts Steelers. We want to talk about
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: that one.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: I got two more games we'll go to, but Schefter
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: just posted this one. I mean, literally only Marv Harrison
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: could even getting traded wrong. Like he can mess up
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: everything and even, even getting traded. So Adam Schefter says
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: the one certainty is that Marvin Harrison's time in Arizona
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: is done. Arizona feels comfortable enough to know it can
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: and will trade Harrison, which is why he will be
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: inactive Sunday. That's hilarious. It goes on to say, but
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: no Harrison trade will be completed until after Sunday's games
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: are played.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: So we're just going to guess who it is for
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: the whole weekend. This is fun. I like this.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: I think it's the Chiefs. I think Maddox got it right.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: I honestly think that Tyreek's stuff, again, like you said,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: should be the way it is. And I think they
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: were trying to sneak something through. Didn't work out. All
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: they have, like the stuff in court and all that
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: stuff is just disgusting. So all that stuff comes out.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: Now it's like, yeah, they can't associate with that, even
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: if they wanted to reunite them. I just don't think
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: people will. He's not like, it reminds me of the...
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: another scumbag ray rice right that situation you're not good
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: enough that someone's gonna take on this risk and bring
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: you in you know it seems to work out that
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: way for some too but it's like if you got
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: you know unless you you're crazy good you got a
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: lot going for you teams aren't gonna risk it uh.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: The only the only thing there is like.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: Replacing taekwon with tyreek hill from a football perspective makes
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: sense because then you're you're you're still getting that speed
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: that clear out guy deep threat who when like last week, when,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: when the defense says, yeah, but we know you don't
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 3: want to throw deep. So we're just going to let
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: the clear out guy run. It's like, well, my homes
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: is my homes. He's going to say, all right, I'll
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 3: just make that pass and get the 50 yards right now. Um,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: Marvin Harrison jr.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: Isn't that guy? He's just, he's, he's not that guy.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: So yeah, they can work around that though. I know
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: what you're saying. Like I, maybe it's not them, but
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: I think that a team like that, I think I
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: saw it earlier. A previous tweet was posted or anything
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: that said.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 3: I, I've now seen two people in the chat ask
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 3: what we're talking about with the news about why Tyree
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: Kill is a scumbag. Are there people who really don't
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 3: know that, or are they confused and thinking that we're
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: talking about Marvin Harrison Jr.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: Tyree Kill, you can just type it into your search bar.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: It's not a difficult thing to find out.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: He's probably not getting signed. Yeah. Now it says one
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: team that has had talks with him is Houston.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: Could be that as well. But Houston has some stuff coming.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: Isn't Tank Dell?
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: Tank Dell is almost back. Nico's there. They seem to
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: know well.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: They got Booty, who has been Booty Cheats, but maybe
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: he can show up and do something. But I will
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: say the Kansas City thing, someone had posted what I
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: was saying before about his contract not really being as
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: prohibitive as what you might think. So it's like, who
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: gives a shit? Let's take a shot on him, and
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: then we can figure it out from there. Yeah, they
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: said we thought you meant to have it.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: No, he's just bad. Tyreek Hill. Marvin Harrison stinks, but
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: he seems like a fine person.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: Seems like a nice guy, though. Yeah, horrible football, but,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: or has been. Two games. We'll go to both of them,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: but I'm just saying Pittsburgh and Indy. You talked about
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: Downs being the run back. And then you talked about
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: the Wilson versus Jeremy stuff, Bernard there. But the, um,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: the other one I want to talk about is any,
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: we talked about a different J love earlier and his
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: ownership steaming is this guy's ownership steaming or anything to
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: go with it? Because we can go back to Pittsburgh indie.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: We already hit it on a little, but I do
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: want to mention this game. Some green Bay it's love.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: It's Watson. It's golden. It's craft all at home. Chicago, Badgent,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: I believe, right? Going to be him again this week.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: You've got Burden. But my big thing here is like
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: Swift is going to be popular, right? There's no man guy.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: And we know this. So when you talked about like
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: the Washington thing, it's not the same because price and
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: differences and all these other factors. Some of these other
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: guys you can make moves on like Trey Harris. You
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: can just play Gadsden or you could play Keaton Mitchell instead.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: Similar prices, different positions, still just a one-off. Let's run
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: with it. With Washington and you're leveraging him, you're saying,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: I'm going to not play him. But you could play
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: a Tucker with Brock Bowers, with Cousins, with a real
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: defense situation that could work in your favor. And Drake
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: may look better last week as well. So you could
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: see that back and forth. But you could leverage it
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: and also get to a unique roster construction. That way,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: that makes sense. So that one's really powerful. Is there
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: anything you see here in this one, knowing that really
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: right now, it looks like just kind of Swift is
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: going to be popular and then take it from there?
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, I, I think the golden is going to
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: be popular. Christian Watson has a chance to steam a
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: little bit. Tucker craft is going to get it at
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: a touch of ownership. So I, I think love stuff
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: could be a little bit popular. I don't love the game.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: I just think the game environment, like the bears want
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: to run the ball even now, maybe there'll be a
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 3: little bit more pass happy, um, since they don't have
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: an unguided lean on as well, but they.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: Want to run the ball. They want to bleed, bleed,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: bleed clock. Uh, I don't, I don't love the environment.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: Um, with Indy and, and Pittsburgh, at least they're like
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: both teams have given up a bunch of explosive passes.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: So you can get the game environment really pushed in
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: that regard. The last one that I want to talk
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: about is Washington and New York, similar idea to Arizona,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: New York last week, where if McLaurin plays now, that's,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 3: that's still a big variable. Uh, the thing I really
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: like about this game number, when you have a rushing
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 3: upside quarterback and Jane and Daniels, um, you also have
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: mid priced wide receivers that have the kind of ceiling
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 3: where if they hit, it's a guarantee that they're cheap
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: quarterback hits. If McLaurin has a big game, if neighbors
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: has the kind of game that he had last week, like,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 3: you know, that they're bringing the quarterback with them. So
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 3: that makes that game interesting. The only thing is like,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: if you're thinking about both this Washington and New York
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 3: defense and the way they were last year, where both
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: were really susceptible explosives, at least so far this year,
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: they haven't been that way. So I can see that getting...
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: environment being overrated a little bit. I think this game,
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 3: as well as the, the pit game and like a
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: handful of others have some rain and wind concerns that
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 3: we have to monitor.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: So I'm not super into all of them.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: I also think that like, this is one of those
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 3: rare instances where I might actually have more interest in
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 3: Washington than If McLaurin doesn't play, because then I feel
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: very good about the role for Antonio Williams, feel very
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: good about the role for Traylon Burks. Both of them
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: can make some explosive plays, especially Burks. And now you're
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 3: just like, you're saving so, so much money through the stack.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: Neighbors is an awesome bring back. So I'd be interested there.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder too, how do you feel about the
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: Williams versus Burks if McLaurin plays? Because I think Neighbors
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: makes this thing work perfect. I think Jaden Daniels at 6K.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: Look at what he was doing before the injury in
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: the Dallas game a couple weeks ago. And you'll say, oh,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: but it's Dallas. I mean, oh, it's the Giants. There's
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: still a possibility here at 6K. He's only 500 bucks
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: more than Brissette. and you've got stacking partners, but when
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: you had the Wilson versus Bernard conversation earlier for Pittsburgh,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: which we'll segue to that to finalize this, um, Williams
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: versus Berks. If McClure, cause I just looked it up
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: over here. I have it up on the screen. DFSOS.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: It was, um, limited at Friday practice, most likely game
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: time decision. Diggs is obviously out any, any thoughts on this?
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: And then people are talking about the weather as well.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, the, the weather's a bit of a concern. Uh,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: I don't want to spend too much time on it now.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 3: Cause I think we get a better forecast tomorrow, but
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 3: I think I would prefer Williams just cause he ran,
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 3: he ran 33 routes last week, the leading the team.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: Now Bert's still got 28. That was with digs in
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: no McLaurin. So maybe that moves things a little bit,
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: you know, that's, that's mostly the.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: Slot guy out.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 3: So maybe, maybe Williams moves into the slack. It's, it's
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: a little bit hard to say, but yeah, I think
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: they're both actually quite interesting. Williams had a 24% target
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 3: per route run. Last week, only 11% for Burks. But
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 3: Burks' stuff is the more explosive stuff. He had, let's see, 29.7-yard
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 3: average depth of target last week, 89 air yards.
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: Williams was still good, though, at 12.1.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Washington is definitely intriguing, and that's
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: a game environment that I think could get pushed.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: All right. Anything else that you want to hit on there?
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: If not, we can finalize on the Pittsburgh Indy stuff.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: I was segwaying to that. Anything more to add? The
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: one thing I guess I'll add on the Pittsburgh Indy
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: before I send it to you that I wanted to
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: say it earlier, I'll say it now, is part of
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: the Rodgers saying whatever he wants it and dropping all
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: those F-bombs to the sideline. By the way, I haven't
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: heard you say that many F-bombs ever.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: I was quoting him.
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: You might have. Yeah, those are just quotes. I like
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: that one. I'll use that in the future.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: Also, you haven't played golf with me. So that's where
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: they come out.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see that. But that's for everybody, I think,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: that plays golf, no matter how good. I mean, you're
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: actually very good at golf. Other people are not, so
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: it makes it even easier. But I will say, part
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: of it is, too, I think it's just like this
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: last hurrah, and he's stuck in a situation where no...
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: is Pittsburgh winning a Superbowl? This is like building the
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: lineups we talked about earlier. Could they? Sure. Anything's possible.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: Will they? Probably not. So it's like, that's, he's just
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: doing whatever he wants. He's got very close to the
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: 300 yard bonus this last couple of weeks, which he
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: almost never gets to because he's just saying whatever. He's
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: throwing it up there to these guys, taking his shots.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: And then he's throwing touchdowns when he gets down there.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: I know like Warren and you could play Warren with Rogers,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: by the way, but I think it's funny that it's
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: also like when he's down there, he's just going for himself.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: like whatever he can get to stack up. And I
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: kind of like, someone said earlier, like Roger's DGAF mode. Well,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: that's what it's kind of always been when he's wanted
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: to prove himself, even when it's at the Packers. But
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: it's like right now, I feel like he's heavy in
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: that mode. So he can just go.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: That's a really good point. And he has control of
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 3: So like, even if there's a run call and they're
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 3: on the one yard line, Roger's like.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: Fuck that.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 3: I'm throwing this in. We're calling a slant to DK Metcalf.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: That's what we're doing three times in a row here.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: And what's McCarthy going to say? He called him out
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: the other day. That's what I was saying earlier. He said,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: that's a terrible play call. He's coming at him even.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: And McCarthy was like, he's an asshole or whatever. He
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: said that one came out with so much lip reading
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: going on. And both those guys, very easy to tell
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: what they're saying. But yeah, he's definitely one just to say,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: forget it. I'm calling it like this and we're doing
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: it this way. So I think for me, it's just
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh side. I do think your point on downs
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: was critical. It sounds minor, but I'm just noting it.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: I really do think because Wilson, Bernard, even Metcalf are
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: also cheap. I think the first thought is to immediately
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: get JT in and someone would be like, ah, I
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: got JT and Gibbs. I'm set. It can work. I
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: would play it in some game stacks, especially if this
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: is going to be in my portfolio of game stacks.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely playing Pittsburgh Indy. I think that makes sense
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: to have some because that is a rare scenario. It's
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: tough to run on these guys. But what if Jonathan
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: Taylor does the Bucky Irving display from the other night?
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: It just is like speed the game up, run a
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: bunch early, now get the team throwing the other way.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: That could do it for sure. But I like your
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: call out of just using up those wide receiver positions.
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: And then you've still got two running backs, a big
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: boy tight end and a big boy flex wide receiver
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: if you want it as well. Anything you want to
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: add more on that one? And then I'm going to
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: hit you with one more off the cuff.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: Let's go one more off the cuff and then jump
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: into leverage lanes.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: Okay. Gibbs McBride mini stack in like every non-stacked lineup.
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: Super popular, right? And then what do you think of it?
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 3: Um, let's check that conditional ownership because let's see.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: Gibbs and bride.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 3: And then let's say, uh, no quarterbacks from that game.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 3: So golf and Brissette.
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: Should be up. Um, now they're talking about the Marv Harrison,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: CJ Stroud connection from before. So plausible theory, they're saying
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: reunited with his college quarterback. All right.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: Uh, 7% of the field using Gibbs and McBride without either,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 3: either quarterback. I mean, I don't, I don't love that
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 3: just cause like, now what I will say about this
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 3: is remember that we we've had this conversation that like
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 3: when tight ends go off, it's, it's largely cause you know, they're,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 3: they're catching a bunch of short passes. So there's not
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: a ton available for the rest of the offense and
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: the game environment as a whole. Same can be said
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 3: about Gibbs. So like, if you get a slower game
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: where this is like 27, 21, and all the production
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 3: is concentrated, at least these two could go off in
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 3: a way that not just like survives the rest of
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 3: the game kind of going off, but actually prevents the
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 3: rest of the game from going off. So yeah, I'm
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 3: more interested in this game stack than most, or mini
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: stack than most for that reason. But I still think
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: like the combinatorial ownership is, you're not getting a discount
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: in any way. They're more owned than we would expect
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 3: just given their individual ownerships, I believe.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: Actually, you know what? Let me take that back.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 3: So with Gibbs in, Goff out, Brissett out, the conditional
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: ownership for McBride drops from 42.5% to 26%.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: So it's still popular, but it's not crazy. And So yeah,
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: I could be interested in that. You could talk.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: I think it's better because I think it's like one
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: that actually slows, like shows how the game could slow down.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: And you've talked about it a bunch where it's like
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: almost if I'm stacking reset. you had it up there earlier.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: It's obviously insane with McBride. It's yes. It could get
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: there that way too. Could our, our big thing from today,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: the takeaway is the goods versus what we're going to
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: play for. It's like, I actually think it's going to
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: be a game where typically, and we've seen it with
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: the tight end production, where I almost want Brissette with
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: Bowers or something, or Brissette with craft or Brissette with
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: something else that I'm planning in. I'm going to play
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: it in a different way. and get there that way.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: That's how I would do it. Because in this scenario,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: it's like Gibbs just does it for the running back
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: position and for himself because he's one of the best
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: fantasy football players we've seen in a long time. And
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: I mean it, obviously one of the best football players,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: but really good from a fantasy perspective as well. Him
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: and Bijan are prime examples of like really racking it
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: up in many ways. McBride would be like catch and fall,
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: catch and fall. It was what you'd hope for. Clock run,
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: clock run. They still both get theirs, but you don't
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: need the whole game stack at that point.
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think one thing you could do there is
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 3: you could go like Brissette, Wilson, Bourne, bring it back
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: with Gibbs and Jameson or something like that, whatever you want,
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 3: and then get Bowers too because now you're telling the
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: story of, hey, this game goes off.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: McBride doesn't have a great game.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 3: And because McBride doesn't have a great game, it gives
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: Bowers an even higher chance than usual to separate at
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 3: the position. So yeah, I like that thought as well.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 3: We've got lots of candidates now for leverage lane. I'm
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 3: curious to hear where you're going.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, mine's going to be easy, but we'll get there
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: in a second. Last thing this guy said, my take
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: on it is someone sent an offer. The Cardinals agreed
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: they will do it. on on monday if no one
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: offers something better in that time frame and it's kind
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: of like the point of what's the worst that can
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: happen everything falls through and it's like you could have
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: literally max crosby going to the ravens and then a
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: trade fall apart so what's it matter if they sit
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: at marvin harrison for one game try and get the
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: maximum for like hey well we got a deal but
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: let's get a last hurrah and see if we can
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: get something better because they obviously hate to to lose
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: them for nothing right they want to try and get something.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 3: It's risky though because like you know let's let's suppose
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 3: for a second that it's Houston. And now let's say, uh,
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 3: you know, Keishon booty goes out and has a hundred
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: yard game. It's like, well, do they now want Marvin
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: Harrison jr. So it's risky.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. Definitely a risk, but I think they're willing
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: to take it at this point with him specifically because whatever, whatever,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: but all right, I'll, uh, I'll let you do your
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: lane first. I don't think it's mine.
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: So you go ahead. I, I think the, with this
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 3: uh this harrison news i think that wilson is going
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 3: to get so insanely owned and mcbride's going to get
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: so insanely owned that i want the leverage of of
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: trying to tell the story of how they fail and
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 3: so um whether that's gibbs and the detroit defense the
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 3: main point is is the detroit defense i think is
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: um is the way to go and And so it's
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 3: weird to like my leverage lane is play the Detroit DST.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 3: It's not so much playing Detroit. It's this is how
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 3: I'm fading the game. And particularly, this is how I'm
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 3: fading Wilson and McBride specifically. If you're fading them, you
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 3: need to tell the story of how they fail. And
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: to me, the main way that they fail is, well,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 3: what if Detroit's pass rush just is suffocating Brissette all
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 3: game long and preventing stuff that way?
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: Damn. It's not Detroit D, but the other side of
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: it is what you took. And mine was going to be,
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit bolder, I think, because of what
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: their ownership percentage is going to be. But I'm fading
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: both Wilson and McBride and Brissette in my single entry.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: So it's just like, we talked about it enough throughout
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: the show, but it's the same way in a different thing.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: I don't necessarily know if I'll put the Detroit D
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: in there because of that. I could, but there's other
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: ways that I could play it as well. But I'm
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: just noting that I don't want any of those guys
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: in those lives. Like I said, even in my Brissette lineups,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: I more want, um, Brissette and the Brock Bowers situation
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: I talked about. So maybe there's opportunity for that now.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe there's some lineups I can do where it's like
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: Brissette love born with Brock Bowers and something like that.
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: And I have all the money to spend and things
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: like that. And the reason Brock Bowers comes in is
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: like I said, I'm trying to take the points from
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: the other side. So it kind of, um, is yours,
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: but in a different way. But I was, cause my
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: thing is like the, the Wilson situation is like, yes,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: the spot's good. Yes. It just got better. The ownership
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: is just going to be outlandish in the portfolio with
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: all these lineups that have, you know, six, five, six
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: other different spots. You can do it in my main
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: single entry. I just want to attack in a different way.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: I'm treating it that way. I don't want to play them.
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: in that. So, uh, him and McBride for sure are
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: going to be out of it. This is what soccer
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: junkie said about yours before you said it to already
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: was in here, said, I like lions D a lot.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: Arizona offensive line is very bad. Jacoby isn't the type
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: of quarterback to take advantage of the explosives lines, give
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: up in the secondary. Could be very true. Also, it's
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: the slice and dice effect. That's all I like that
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: you went with it. I was talking about this. Gibbs
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: is going to be popular no matter what in the
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: game stacks on the lineups that don't have them. It's
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: just cheaper guys. So it fits Gibbs. So to me, it's,
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: it's that. And, you know, Jeremy says for mine, how
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: do you build with Bauer's price tag? How don't you?
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 3: It's like, it's basically the same price tag as McBride
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 3: and 40% of the field is able to build that way. So.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: 300 bucks more.
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: And if you have watched any of the games, I mean,
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: I feel like Bowers could have had much better games
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: even than he had, even like last week at 86 yards,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: he got held at, um, you know, there was, there
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: was more opportunity.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: And that was, that was one of the better defensive
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: coordinators in the league. Spagnola. Like, yes.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: Selling out to stop Bowers and he still got to
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: 25 draft Kings points.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think, I think Bowers is awesome.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: And their coaching is a disaster, by the way, on
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: their particular team, you have one chance to come back
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: in that game. I think they ran because the reason
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: I calculated, because I would have won a FFWC seat.
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: I think they ran nine plays and decided Brock Bowers
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: on even one would be a bad idea. So let's
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: just run nine plays and not use him when we
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: need to come back and win the game. The broadcast
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: is literally circling the guy over and over. Like here
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: he is. Should probably go to him here. Nope. I
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 2: think it was nine plays. And they decided that we'll
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: just go with zero for nine on trying to include
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: our guy who someone said it best soccer junkie again,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: Bowers is.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he is.
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: And he's, he's tight end one pricing at nine. or sorry,
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: he's tight on one pricing for a wide receiver one.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: He has been up there with these other guys that
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: you're looking at, like Colin's first big game last week,
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: which someone asked earlier, were we on it? We talked
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: about all over this show. It ended up being my
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: main core on the site was Stroud, Nico, Lamb. It's
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: what came 12th in the Mega Millie. That was just
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: a great spot to be in, but he's done a
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: lot more and will do a lot more this season
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: than a lot of your 7K wide receivers are, will,
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: or will still stay healthy for. So lots of different
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: ways to go there. when it comes to that and
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: opportunity that way. Um, Alex, let the people know where
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: they can find you, what else you got going on, man.
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: And then we'll get out of here. Good, good show.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: Love this one.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this was a really fun one. Blick analytics.com. And, uh, I,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 3: I just launched a brand new props tool. So if
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 3: you want to check that out, uh, I built the
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 3: tool so that it kind of, it, it allows people
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 3: to very clearly, very easily all in one place, use
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 3: the exact process that I use personally, uh, to build
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 3: props and, uh, and hopefully, uh, People really enjoy that.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: So check that out, BlickAnalytics.com. Find me at AlexBlickle1 on Twitter.
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 3: I posted a video yesterday that kind of previews that
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: tool if you want to get a first look at it.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: Yep, and like I said earlier, guys, if you guys
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: want to check it out, go to X at ToeTag
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: and Tambo. You can find me there. Everybody knows that.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: If I pull this down, pull this up quickly, we
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: did announce it off the top of the show, but again,
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: shout out to our guy. Just this is the real
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: special thing about our community. We've obviously been around longer
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: and stuff like that, so it's helpful, but we just
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: have an amazing community for Sharks who won $ 40, 000 last
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: week to donate over 10% of his winnings to the
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: Ship It Games to round it up to 50,000. So
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: if you go back here and see it on the,
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 2: on the site, ship it games, you go to ship
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: it games.com. You load it up. It looks like this.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: It'll show you everything you need to know, but it's
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: a internal community contest. All you have to do is
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: be an all access or an NFL only member at
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 2: ship a nation. You can play every week for the
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: three golden ship and tickets that are available. There have
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: been 12, one so far. And at the end of
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: the season, when we crown the ultimate winner, we did
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: this last year as well. But right now, top prize
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: just moved up to $ 12, 000. You can see the rest
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: of the prize payouts on shipitgames.com. Check it out. Go
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: to shipitnation.com. If you need anything, hit me up on
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: X at ToeTag and Tambo. That's going to do it
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: for this one, guys. We're Blickle. For myself, ToeTag and Tambo.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: Good luck in your contest this week. Let's ship it!