Transcript

Take It To The Limit · Politix

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Zero Republicans are listening because,
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SPEAKER_00: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: Okay.
0:16
SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: You're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: This week, we're mostly going to talk about the debt limit.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: The country will run out of borrowing authority very soon.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: And once again,
0:27
SPEAKER_00: it seems likely,
0:27
SPEAKER_00: though not certain,
0:29
that Republicans will need Democratic votes to increase the
0:33
debt limit so that the
0:34
SPEAKER_00: country doesn't experience a credit default.
0:37
SPEAKER_00: which would probably ruin the economy.
0:40
So can Democrats win trust back from their angry voters by
0:45
driving a harder bargain here?
0:47
SPEAKER_00: What would that look like?
0:48
SPEAKER_00: And what do we think the optimal strategy would be beginning to end?
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1:03
SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
1:07
So we're going to spend most of this episode talking about the
1:10
coming debt limit fight,
1:12
our views on what an optimal strategy for Democrats in that
1:16
fight might look like.
1:17
But I think we have to take a few minutes at the top here to
1:19
talk about this –
1:21
Crazy story that I'm guessing most of our listeners have heard
1:24
something about by
1:24
SPEAKER_00: the Atlantic editor,
1:28
SPEAKER_00: Jeffrey Goldberg.
1:29
I guess I'll just give the short version is that the Trump
1:34
administration does
1:35
things like conduct military planning discussions on a private
1:38
text message platform.
1:41
The slightly longer version of events here is that Goldberg
1:45
received a connection
1:47
SPEAKER_00: notice on the encrypted text messaging app Signal from Michael Waltz,
1:52
SPEAKER_00: who's Trump's national security advisor.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: Jeff Goldberg is a big mucky muck, big deal in journalism.
1:58
He doesn't think too much about getting a ping like that from a
2:02
top government official.
2:04
But then Waltz adds him to a group thread called something like
2:09
the Houthis
2:10
SPEAKER_00: Principal Committee Working Group or something like that.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: That group populates with
2:15
what appears to be the top officials in the country other than
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Donald Trump himself.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: So it's like J.D.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: Vance is on there,
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SPEAKER_00: Marco Rubio,
2:22
SPEAKER_00: Pete Hegstat,
2:23
SPEAKER_00: Scott Besson,
2:24
SPEAKER_00: Tulsi Gabbard,
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SPEAKER_00: the whole national security principles group,
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SPEAKER_00: and they start talking about their plans to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen.
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And it's such a bonkers thing for him to witness that Goldberg
2:37
kind of assumes that
2:37
SPEAKER_00: it's a spoof,
2:38
that somebody's trying to trick him into believing that's
2:41
what's happening.
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SPEAKER_00: But then Pete Hegstat, the Secretary of Defense, sends...
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SPEAKER_00: like a detailed strike plan document to this group on Signal.
2:50
SPEAKER_00: And then the bombs start falling exactly as detailed in the document.
2:55
SPEAKER_00: So now Goldberg realizes this is legit.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: I think he got Shane Harris,
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SPEAKER_00: one of his national security reporters,
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SPEAKER_00: to report out the last bits and pieces of the story.
3:05
SPEAKER_00: Everyone's busted.
3:06
SPEAKER_00: Huge national security breach.
3:09
So I guess the race is on to see whether the scandal has legs
3:12
long enough to –
3:14
outrun whatever the republicans in congress are going to do to
3:18
like cover up the
3:19
extent of the national security damage how much business trump
3:25
officials are
3:25
conducting on signals on signal etc is that basically the long
3:31
and short of it matt
3:33
SPEAKER_01: um yeah i mean there there is uh many um many uh
3:41
SPEAKER_01: Aspects to this,
3:43
SPEAKER_01: you know,
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
3:44
you are not supposed to use Signal for these kind of secure communications.
3:49
The fact that it was being so casually used suggests that this
3:54
is happening routinely.
3:56
SPEAKER_01: Adding Jeffrey Goldberg by accident is obviously a major security breach.
4:01
SPEAKER_01: Like, as it happens, Jeffrey Goldberg is a...
4:06
SPEAKER_01: hawkish national security reporter who is is quite anti-Trump,
4:12
SPEAKER_01: but from a kind of a I don't know,
4:16
SPEAKER_01: a somewhat,
4:16
SPEAKER_01: you know,
4:17
SPEAKER_01: like blob like perspective.
4:19
So like he would not take advantage of a leak like this so as
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to compromise the
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SPEAKER_01: national security of the United States.
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SPEAKER_01: But he was added like purely by accident.
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SPEAKER_01: It's like a fat finger typing error.
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SPEAKER_01: Which is an example.
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SPEAKER_01: Sure.
4:33
SPEAKER_01: Can we put a pin in that?
4:34
SPEAKER_00: Because so the way Signal works,
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SPEAKER_00: in my experience,
4:38
is Signal automatically connects you to people when it finds a
4:41
match in your contacts.
4:43
So my assumption has been that Waltz and Goldberg had exchanged
4:47
phone numbers at
4:48
SPEAKER_00: some point,
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which would not be weird for Jeffrey Goldberg and a national
4:53
security member of
4:53
SPEAKER_00: Congress or something like that.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: But then somehow there was – yeah,
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SPEAKER_00: maybe then the fat finger thing happened when he created the group.
5:04
SPEAKER_00: Like I think there's speculation that he was trying to add somebody else.
5:09
SPEAKER_00: The U.S.
5:09
SPEAKER_01: trade representative has initials JG.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean there's other – That's a good theory.
5:14
SPEAKER_01: Other things it could be – yeah, right.
5:16
SPEAKER_01: But I just mean to say –
5:19
One of the defenses offered for like using Signal for this kind
5:22
of purpose,
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SPEAKER_01: even though it's like against regs,
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SPEAKER_01: is that Signal is a very secure messaging platform,
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SPEAKER_01: which as I understand it is true.
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SPEAKER_01: It has end-to-end encryption, et cetera.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: When you don't accidentally run it.
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But yes,
5:35
on a proper government system,
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like Jeffrey Goldberg doesn't have
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SPEAKER_01: access to the system.
5:41
SPEAKER_01: So you can't accidentally add him to a group text, right?
5:46
SPEAKER_00: Like you can't, you can't lose your skiff, right?
5:48
SPEAKER_00: Like you can lose your iPhone with the signal app on it.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: And if somebody gets into it,
5:52
SPEAKER_01: but,
5:52
SPEAKER_01: but I,
5:53
SPEAKER_01: but I just mean,
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SPEAKER_01: I mean,
5:54
SPEAKER_01: not that anybody engages with any of this in good faith,
5:58
SPEAKER_01: but like it is true that this is a no harm,
6:01
SPEAKER_01: no foul situation within the four walls of what actually occurred.
6:07
SPEAKER_01: But like,
6:08
SPEAKER_01: Just as it's not totally crazy that Michael Walls,
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SPEAKER_01: the national security advisor and a former House member,
6:14
has the phone number of a prominent national security
6:17
journalist in his phone,
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it wouldn't be crazy for Michael Walls to have the phone number
6:22
of an Iranian
6:23
SPEAKER_01: diplomat in his phone,
6:25
SPEAKER_01: right?
6:25
SPEAKER_01: Like,
6:25
it's completely appropriate for the national security advisor
6:28
of the United States
6:30
SPEAKER_01: to have discussions on occasion with hostile foreign actors,
6:34
SPEAKER_01: right?
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SPEAKER_01: But if you accidentally add Iranian intelligence to your group chat,
6:39
SPEAKER_01: that's a really big problem.
6:41
SPEAKER_01: You're really, really, really not supposed to do this.
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SPEAKER_00: There was a CIA intelligence officer named in this exchange.
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SPEAKER_00: There's real issues.
6:53
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of people.
6:54
There's a funny,
6:56
Jonah Goldberg has a very long series of tweets of people
7:01
screaming at him.
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SPEAKER_01: Because they think he's Jeffrey Goldberg.
7:06
SPEAKER_01: And like this stuff, just like it happens.
7:08
SPEAKER_01: Like people mix up people's names.
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SPEAKER_01: There's a reason these systems are built.
7:11
SPEAKER_01: Now,
7:11
SPEAKER_01: I will say,
7:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
7:12
SPEAKER_01: I wrote an article for Vox in 2016,
7:15
SPEAKER_01: I think,
7:16
about how I believe the FOIA and Presidential Record Act rules
7:20
are too cumbersome
7:21
SPEAKER_01: and that a consequence of these rules,
7:23
SPEAKER_01: right?
7:24
So if you use official government written communications methods,
7:29
they are subject to –
7:32
certain kinds of disclosure that most government officials tend
7:36
to want to avoid,
7:38
SPEAKER_01: I think for good reason.
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And so this pushes people when I was writing back back back in
7:45
2016 to doing a lot
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SPEAKER_01: of stuff over phone calls.
7:50
SPEAKER_01: Which I was saying was bad,
7:51
that it's in fact better for people to communicate their ideas
7:54
in written memos
7:55
SPEAKER_01: where you can think more clearly.
7:57
SPEAKER_01: Orality is fun, but it's not good for clarity of thought.
8:01
SPEAKER_01: I also remembered in the Obama administration,
8:03
it would frequently be the case that if people wanted to talk
8:06
to me about something,
8:08
they would have me go to the Caribou Coffee on Pennsylvania
8:12
Avenue so as to avoid
8:15
SPEAKER_01: the –
8:16
SPEAKER_01: Visitor log disclosures,
8:18
but it's obviously less secure to be meeting with people at the
8:21
coffee shop by the
8:22
SPEAKER_01: White House.
8:23
I just feel like half the staff at that coffee shop must be on
8:27
the Chinese payroll at all times.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, so there's a problem.
8:33
SPEAKER_01: here that I would like to see addressed by adults on a bipartisan basis.
8:38
Because again,
8:39
the problem here is that this is not what Signal is built for.
8:43
SPEAKER_01: Signal is, as far as phone-based messaging apps go, pretty secure.
8:50
SPEAKER_01: But it has all of these... It's a consumer product.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: You know,
8:54
and so it like automatically imports all your contacts and it
8:58
auto fills screens
8:59
SPEAKER_01: when you start to put them in.
9:00
And like you can make dumb mistakes,
9:03
like adding the wrong guy to your Houthi thing.
9:06
It seems like people will be getting questions about this at hearings,
9:11
et cetera,
9:11
et cetera.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean, of course, nothing will happen, quote unquote, but I don't.
9:16
Well,
9:16
I mean,
9:17
I think not just nothing will happen,
9:19
but like the normal thing.
9:21
SPEAKER_00: course of operations,
9:22
if this happened in Joe Biden's presidency or if Hillary
9:24
Clinton had won Obama's presidency,
9:27
what would happen is that the FBI would open a criminal and a
9:30
counterintelligence
9:31
SPEAKER_00: investigation to understand the extent of the breach,
9:34
SPEAKER_00: to understand how widespread the practice was,
9:36
SPEAKER_00: to consider whether anybody had broken any laws with mens rea,
9:40
SPEAKER_00: right?
9:41
I think it is very likely that Trump is going to order or Pam
9:45
Bondi is just going
9:46
SPEAKER_00: to know to order
9:47
SPEAKER_00: the Justice Department to just stand down on this.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: Don't even bother investigating.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: And that's its own kind of scandal, right?
9:54
Like separate and apart from what seems to be an
9:57
administration-wide policy to hide
9:59
from public records laws by using the Signal app instead of
10:05
government channels.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: Right.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: That is like something that I think
10:14
SPEAKER_00: if Donald Trump wants to kind of impeachably add himself to the scandal,
10:19
SPEAKER_00: that's going to be the next step.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: And that's going to be something that,
10:23
SPEAKER_00: uh,
10:24
Congress could take an interest in beyond the sort of like wrap
10:28
on the wrists for,
10:29
SPEAKER_00: for these guys for,
10:29
SPEAKER_00: for planning military strikes over signal.
10:34
SPEAKER_01: Um, I mean, anyway, I, I think, I think we need to, um, you know, uh,
10:41
SPEAKER_00: move on to our more substantive conversations.
10:47
SPEAKER_00: I wish we had a lawyer on here.
10:49
SPEAKER_00: Simultaneous to all this,
10:50
there's ongoing sort of edging up to contempt of court
10:55
proceedings happening with a
10:57
federal district court judge named Boesberg who is trying to
11:02
get to the bottom of
11:05
basically like whether the Trump administration knowingly and
11:08
intentionally
11:10
SPEAKER_00: violated his own
11:11
SPEAKER_00: orders when he told them to don't deport people to – don't send people,
11:16
SPEAKER_00: disappear people off to this El Salvadoran labor prison,
11:21
SPEAKER_00: turn the planes in the sky around,
11:22
SPEAKER_00: don't let any more take off.
11:25
Those orders were not followed and he's trying to get to the
11:27
bottom of why and the
11:28
SPEAKER_00: Trump administration has been
11:31
resisting disclosure in a way that makes me think that there is
11:34
some sort of paper
11:35
SPEAKER_00: trail proving that they were just like,
11:37
SPEAKER_00: well,
11:37
SPEAKER_00: fuck this judge,
11:38
SPEAKER_00: we're going to ignore him,
11:39
which then gets you right into the intentional defiance of
11:43
court orders crisis territory.
11:46
SPEAKER_00: The latest on this is that last night,
11:49
SPEAKER_00: so Monday night,
11:51
SPEAKER_00: the administration invoked the state secrets privilege.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: to shield any further information from the judge.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: And that's not the end of the story.
12:02
The judge is actually supposed to be the final say in that the
12:05
state secrets
12:06
SPEAKER_00: privilege is like,
12:08
SPEAKER_00: this is like exceptionally abusive invocation of it,
12:11
SPEAKER_00: but is ripe for abuse.
12:13
SPEAKER_00: It's been a object of criticism for, for a long time.
12:19
SPEAKER_00: But I do wonder whether,
12:24
This reporting and the confirmation by the White House that
12:26
separately all these
12:27
state secrets are being transmitted over signal is of any use
12:32
to Bozberg as he
12:33
SPEAKER_00: pursues this inquiry.
12:35
SPEAKER_00: Because in addition to him being like,
12:36
SPEAKER_00: I'm asking you what times some planes took off,
12:38
SPEAKER_00: like it's not really a state secret.
12:41
He can also be like,
12:42
also,
12:42
you motherfuckers do not actually give a shit about state secrets.
12:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
12:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
12:48
SPEAKER_00: I mean, yeah.
12:50
SPEAKER_00: As a rhetorical matter, he can obviously do it, but like.
12:53
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
12:53
SPEAKER_01: He's a district court judge though.
12:55
SPEAKER_01: I mean, we'll see.
12:57
SPEAKER_01: We'll see what happens.
12:58
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: All right.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: We're all on a tight timeline here,
13:02
SPEAKER_00: so we're just going to totally abruptly shift gears to the debt limit.
13:06
SPEAKER_01: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: I mean, listen.
13:09
SPEAKER_01: So.
13:10
I think that there were a lot of complications and ins and outs
13:13
to the CR situation.
13:17
The non-complicated sort of like broad underlying reality is
13:23
that people would like
13:24
SPEAKER_01: to see Democrats fight.
13:29
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, Chuck Schumer is now in the in the weeds.
13:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
13:36
SPEAKER_01: Hiding in the weeds.
13:39
SPEAKER_01: No, he's in big trouble.
13:41
SPEAKER_01: Everybody is getting the advice.
13:45
Every Democrat who's running for any office anywhere is getting
13:49
the advice from
13:49
SPEAKER_01: their consultants.
13:51
SPEAKER_01: You need to do things that will make the base happy,
13:54
SPEAKER_01: but that also don't involve any policy commitments.
13:57
SPEAKER_01: So you should be as mean as possible about Chuck Schumer.
14:01
SPEAKER_01: And like everybody's doing that, you know, it's a bad look for him.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: And so there's just a clear need to like reboot and say,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: well,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: what are we going to do going forward?
14:13
SPEAKER_01: And my take is that the debt ceiling is.
14:19
SPEAKER_01: creates a much friendlier terrain for a kind of a hardline demand,
14:26
SPEAKER_01: pending,
14:26
SPEAKER_01: like,
14:26
SPEAKER_01: what is the demand for Democrats?
14:30
And so the debt ceiling exercise,
14:31
as we recall,
14:32
is that every once in a while...
14:36
Congress has to sort of renew authorization for the federal
14:38
government to borrow
14:39
SPEAKER_01: additional money.
14:41
SPEAKER_01: Various bad things would occur if you had a breach.
14:44
Nobody really knows what would occur because it's never
14:46
happened or exactly how bad
14:48
SPEAKER_01: it would be,
14:49
SPEAKER_01: but it's not good.
14:51
Can I – the reason – it is understood I think accurately that
14:56
if the US ran out of
14:57
SPEAKER_00: borrowing authority,
15:00
SPEAKER_00: no matter what,
15:00
SPEAKER_00: there would be some kind of economic crisis because –
15:05
suddenly the government would have to operate only with the
15:07
amount of tax revenue coming in.
15:09
SPEAKER_00: The nightmare scenario is that that means that these are coming in lumps.
15:15
It means you can't really prioritize fast enough for the
15:20
obligations as they arise
15:21
SPEAKER_00: and that some,
15:22
SPEAKER_00: like China,
15:22
will be owed money on its – the interest on its debt and will
15:27
miss the interest
15:27
SPEAKER_00: payment and then we're in credit default and –
15:31
SPEAKER_00: that's very dangerous to the United States economy,
15:37
SPEAKER_00: which thrives on having a triple A or double A plus credit rating.
15:42
SPEAKER_00: Even if you manage to make all the payments though,
15:46
SPEAKER_00: operating the government with just the revenue coming in and no debt,
15:49
SPEAKER_00: no new debt,
15:50
SPEAKER_00: is not nearly enough money.
15:51
SPEAKER_00: You would get a huge hit to GDP,
15:55
SPEAKER_00: basically right away.
15:58
And that would,
15:59
even if you managed to keep your credit rating somehow,
16:02
trigger a recession.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: That's the theory.
16:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, maybe.
16:05
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think genuinely nobody knows, but it's not good.
16:11
SPEAKER_01: So the – I don't know how to put this.
16:17
SPEAKER_01: In Trump's first term,
16:20
SPEAKER_01: I think there was always the question.
16:22
SPEAKER_01: There's always the question,
16:23
SPEAKER_01: you know,
16:23
SPEAKER_01: if when there's a president who you don't like,
16:26
SPEAKER_01: it's like,
16:26
SPEAKER_01: should you like root for bad things to happen or should you not?
16:30
And everyone in the opposition party is like a little bit of
16:33
both all the time.
16:35
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
16:35
SPEAKER_01: I mean, nobody's going to admit it, right?
16:37
Like Hakeem Jeffries is never going to be like,
16:39
I really hope the economy tanks.
16:41
SPEAKER_01: Cause like that would be stupid, but also people like to win elections.
16:45
SPEAKER_01: But by considered view,
16:47
SPEAKER_01: reflecting,
16:48
SPEAKER_01: pondering,
16:49
SPEAKER_01: thinking about events in Trump's first term,
16:52
was that I hoped that the economy would stay on track and that
16:56
good things would happen.
16:57
SPEAKER_01: I thought that Trump was sufficiently clownish and scandal-ridden,
17:02
that Democrats stood a fine chance of winning elections despite
17:06
a strong economy,
17:07
SPEAKER_01: which is exactly what happened in 2018.
17:10
SPEAKER_01: And I also thought that for all the kind of authoritarian
17:13
SPEAKER_01: portent of Trump's statements,
17:17
that there was very little he was doing that was like actually
17:21
all that menacing.
17:23
SPEAKER_01: To me,
17:25
SPEAKER_01: times changed on January 6th,
17:29
SPEAKER_01: 2021,
17:30
SPEAKER_01: which that happened much too late in Trump's administration to like
17:34
SPEAKER_01: like alter your approach to economic policy.
17:38
SPEAKER_01: But, you know, that was a striking event.
17:40
SPEAKER_01: That was Trump actually did get his ducks in a row,
17:43
SPEAKER_01: like actually did do like the big illegal thing.
17:47
SPEAKER_01: Then he wriggled out of hard consequences from congressional Republicans.
17:53
SPEAKER_01: He then...
17:54
You know,
17:55
donors were like,
17:56
eh,
17:56
we probably shouldn't run with Trump again.
17:58
SPEAKER_01: But he beat those guys.
18:00
SPEAKER_01: He recaptured the machinery of government.
18:03
And he's now back and much more dangerous than ever before
18:08
because he is a much
18:09
SPEAKER_01: more loyal and sort of aligned group.
18:12
SPEAKER_01: of Republicans working with him.
18:14
He pardoned all of the January 6th crooks with no meaningful
18:18
intraparty resistance.
18:20
SPEAKER_01: He has installed,
18:21
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:22
SPEAKER_01: with explicit intent,
18:23
SPEAKER_01: like put Kash Patel in charge of the FBI,
18:26
SPEAKER_01: put U.S.
18:27
SPEAKER_01: attorneys in key roles with like the goal of subverting the integrity and
18:35
SPEAKER_01: independent functioning of these kinds of institutions.
18:38
SPEAKER_01: Um,
18:40
SPEAKER_01: All of which is to say that to me now,
18:44
I do not hope that the US government has a debt ceiling breach
18:48
that causes interest
18:49
SPEAKER_01: rates to spike and huge problems in people's lives.
18:52
SPEAKER_01: But if that were to occur, I would live with it.
18:57
SPEAKER_01: And so I think to me,
19:00
SPEAKER_01: but I believe also to Chuck Schumer and to Hakeem Jeffries,
19:05
SPEAKER_01: it is credible that
19:06
SPEAKER_01: for them to say, we are drawing a hard line on this.
19:10
SPEAKER_01: We are not going to provide the votes for it to happen.
19:13
It is possible for Republicans to avoid a debt ceiling breach
19:17
via party line votes,
19:18
SPEAKER_01: which we should discuss the hows and whys of that.
19:22
And if anybody from Wall Street or the business world or
19:25
anything else comes to them,
19:27
say like,
19:28
SPEAKER_01: this is not my problem.
19:30
SPEAKER_01: You need to take it up with Mike Johnson.
19:33
SPEAKER_01: You need to take it up with John Thune.
19:34
SPEAKER_01: You need to take it up with Donald Trump.
19:36
If they won't take care of this on their own terms or make a
19:40
deal with us and
19:42
SPEAKER_01: catastrophe occurs,
19:44
SPEAKER_01: we are just going to reap the political benefits of that.
19:48
SPEAKER_01: And I think that that is a line that you can hold if you start
19:55
You know,
19:56
you can't just like make up your demands three hours before the
19:59
critical vote.
19:59
SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is the problem with the CR situation, too.
20:02
SPEAKER_01: There were many problems.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: But I mean, it's like you have to start articulating.
20:07
SPEAKER_01: sooner rather than later,
20:10
SPEAKER_01: like what it is you will not do,
20:13
SPEAKER_01: how it is Republicans can address this without your votes.
20:17
So like people,
20:18
because you're trying to shift the burden onto that,
20:22
right?
20:22
SPEAKER_01: That like Republicans can just do this if they want to.
20:26
SPEAKER_01: They won the election.
20:27
SPEAKER_01: Anytime I'm like, maybe people should get their social security benefits.
20:31
SPEAKER_01: They come back with, ha ha ha, we won the election.
20:33
SPEAKER_01: So like it's their responsibility to govern.
20:36
But if they can't get their shit together and they come to me
20:40
begging for a bailout,
20:42
SPEAKER_01: I will do it if something.
20:45
SPEAKER_01: And then you need something that's like worth fighting for.
20:49
But also,
20:50
I mean,
20:50
this is the part where it's like the base wants to show you fighting.
20:54
SPEAKER_01: So you're fighting.
20:55
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
20:56
SPEAKER_01: Swing voters are happy for you to, like, talk shit about Chuck Schumer.
21:00
SPEAKER_01: But at the end of the day,
21:01
SPEAKER_01: like,
21:01
SPEAKER_01: the bargaining demand needs to be something that,
21:05
SPEAKER_01: like,
21:06
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:08
SPEAKER_01: Slocken and Warnock and those people can,
21:11
SPEAKER_01: like,
21:12
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:12
SPEAKER_01: like,
21:12
SPEAKER_01: go on local TV news and be like,
21:14
SPEAKER_01: this is a good thing.
21:15
SPEAKER_01: Like, you also want this demand.
21:18
SPEAKER_01: which,
21:18
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:19
SPEAKER_01: it's not that hard to come up with,
21:20
SPEAKER_01: but you have to,
21:22
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:22
SPEAKER_01: there's got to be some kind of agreement,
21:23
SPEAKER_01: right?
21:24
SPEAKER_00: I mean, the only place I disagree with you is that I think that the
21:28
A good leader would go to Slotkin and Warnock and be like,
21:31
these are going to be the demands.
21:33
SPEAKER_00: I came up with them.
21:35
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
21:35
Based on my considered judgment and with ways for you to
21:38
message them that I think
21:39
SPEAKER_00: will be helpful and that you can pull off.
21:41
SPEAKER_00: But you're going to have to be courageous about this and go defend them.
21:45
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
21:47
SPEAKER_00: Instead of the other way around, which is how it often works.
21:49
SPEAKER_01: Well, I agree.
21:50
SPEAKER_01: But I mean, it's just like you got to pick some good stuff.
21:53
SPEAKER_01: But so let's talk about the debt ceiling.
21:55
SPEAKER_01: Like what?
21:57
SPEAKER_01: What are Republicans options for lifting the debt ceiling?
22:02
SPEAKER_00: OK.
22:04
SPEAKER_00: Well,
22:05
SPEAKER_00: I guess we can start with the,
22:06
SPEAKER_00: you know,
22:09
Republicans who kind of pick up where a bunch of us liberals
22:12
and Democrats left off.
22:15
near the end of the Biden years and then again on and off in
22:17
the – I'm sorry,
22:18
SPEAKER_00: in the Obama years and then on and off in the Biden years,
22:20
SPEAKER_00: which is that there are various theoretical workarounds,
22:24
SPEAKER_00: right?
22:25
SPEAKER_00: The president can say that the debt limit statute,
22:27
the statute that says the Congress has to increase the
22:30
borrowing authority of the
22:32
SPEAKER_00: US when it runs out,
22:33
SPEAKER_00: that that statute is in conflict with the constitution,
22:36
SPEAKER_00: which says that the US debt shall not be violated.
22:39
SPEAKER_00: And so the administration is going to ignore that law.
22:44
They can order the minting of a trillion dollar or a platinum
22:51
coin of some large denomination,
22:53
SPEAKER_00: which through hocus pocus and separate law,
22:56
SPEAKER_00: they can then deposit in a Federal Reserve account.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: And the suddenly the government has money to roll over debt with.
23:06
SPEAKER_00: In practice,
23:08
SPEAKER_00: or at least prior to this term,
23:11
SPEAKER_00: the lawyers and the economists did not think these were good plans,
23:16
SPEAKER_00: whether they were legal or not,
23:18
SPEAKER_00: because a lot of this is just about faith.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: Do investors actually think that the US is a solid trading partner with
23:29
SPEAKER_00: dependable, right?
23:30
And that this would show such instability and such uncertainty
23:33
about how courts
23:34
SPEAKER_00: would rule in the future,
23:35
SPEAKER_00: that it would cause big interest rate problems,
23:37
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
23:38
SPEAKER_00: all on its own.
23:39
SPEAKER_00: So we don't know whether Trump is like thinking,
23:43
SPEAKER_00: well,
23:43
SPEAKER_00: fuck,
23:43
SPEAKER_00: because he might,
23:44
SPEAKER_00: unlike Obama and Biden,
23:46
SPEAKER_00: he kind of has the temperament to just take a big swing like that.
23:51
So I wouldn't rule that out as a possibility of like how this
23:54
ends or at least
23:54
SPEAKER_00: transitions into a new story.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: But
23:57
SPEAKER_00: In general,
23:58
if you set aside the sort of nuclear option ideas for
24:02
circumventing a debt limit,
24:04
Congress has to either increase the borrowing authority of the
24:09
US by a certain
24:10
SPEAKER_00: dollar amount,
24:11
SPEAKER_00: or they can suspend the debt limit for a certain period of time.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: And then when that time elapses,
24:18
all that backed up debt is accounted for by the increase in the
24:22
debt limit.
24:26
In the past,
24:27
what used to happen is that Congress would have a regular
24:31
budget process.
24:32
They would put together a reconciliation bill every few years
24:35
to balance taxes with spending.
24:38
Then they would slip a debt limit provision into that
24:41
reconciliation bill.
24:42
SPEAKER_00: There's no filibuster there.
24:46
SPEAKER_00: Even if you can't get a super majority to pass your budget bill,
24:51
SPEAKER_00: you can still increase the debt limit.
24:53
In more recent years,
24:54
what has happened is that everything's gone haywire.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: And so the debt limit comes up every year, two years, whatever.
25:03
And then Congress has to pass this standalone piece of
25:06
legislation to increase the debt limit.
25:08
When this happened in 2011,
25:11
John Boehner went to the microphones and he said,
25:14
House Republicans will not increase the debt limit without
25:17
concomitant spending cuts.
25:19
If you want a dollar increase in the debt limit,
25:21
you need to cut a dollar from the budget.
25:23
SPEAKER_00: And it set off a big showdown that Republicans ultimately won.
25:28
And in the here and now,
25:32
if that were the approach that Congress chose to take,
25:39
you'd
25:41
basically be in the same circumstance that we were in just a
25:44
couple of weeks ago
25:45
SPEAKER_00: with the government shutdown fight,
25:46
where Republicans would probably not have enough votes in the
25:50
House to increase the
25:51
SPEAKER_00: debt limit on their own,
25:52
SPEAKER_00: but maybe they would get it together under duress.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: But then that bill would be subject to filibuster in the Senate.
26:01
And now we're back in the exact same spot where Democrats would
26:07
be under a lot of pressure to –
26:10
SPEAKER_00: end the filibuster to help Republicans pass a debt limit increase.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to bore our audience a bit.
26:21
SPEAKER_00: One time in 2021, we were in that exact predicament.
26:28
SPEAKER_00: The debt limit had to be increased.
26:30
It was not put into a reconciliation bill so that Democrats who
26:33
had majorities of
26:34
SPEAKER_00: time could increase it on their own.
26:37
It looked like we were going to run into a situation where
26:39
there weren't going to
26:39
SPEAKER_00: be 60 votes to overcome a Republican filibuster,
26:42
SPEAKER_00: and that would have set off the likely default crisis.
26:48
SPEAKER_01: This was sort of closely parallel, right?
26:50
Because it was like – there was pressure on Republicans from
26:54
their base to like fight Joe Biden.
26:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
26:59
SPEAKER_01: But Republicans didn't actually want –
27:02
SPEAKER_01: to cause a debt ceiling breach.
27:04
SPEAKER_01: So they were like trying to come up with a way to tank themselves.
27:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
27:10
SPEAKER_00: And they,
27:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
27:12
SPEAKER_00: Mitch McConnell,
27:13
SPEAKER_00: because he's pretty clever tactician and,
27:16
SPEAKER_00: and like understands congressional procedure very well,
27:19
SPEAKER_00: figured out a way to do this on a one-off basis that allowed a,
27:27
debt limit increase bill to come to the Senate floor in a way
27:32
that was exempt from filibuster.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: The machinations of this were very loopy and very unusual,
27:39
SPEAKER_00: but essentially the House sent over a shell.
27:44
SPEAKER_00: They passed their own legislation,
27:46
SPEAKER_00: I think,
27:46
SPEAKER_00: to essentially change Senate rules for this one measure.
27:52
SPEAKER_00: Once it arrived in the Senate,
27:54
SPEAKER_00: The Republicans like Ted Cruz,
27:56
SPEAKER_00: who normally would be there to muck things up and make trouble,
28:00
SPEAKER_00: couldn't do anything about it.
28:00
They couldn't object to an up or down vote triggering the 60
28:05
vote threshold.
28:07
They couldn't run up the clock so that we ended up past the
28:11
drop dead date to raise
28:12
SPEAKER_00: the debt limit.
28:12
SPEAKER_00: And so Democrats got together the votes,
28:17
SPEAKER_00: increased the debt limit on their own,
28:18
SPEAKER_00: and then the crisis was averted.
28:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
28:23
SPEAKER_00: So that's like the broad lay of the land.
28:24
SPEAKER_00: It's obviously very broad,
28:26
SPEAKER_00: but it matters because the balance of leverage sort of depends what path,
28:35
SPEAKER_00: what direction things go from here.
28:39
SPEAKER_00: I think maybe we should take this opportunity to set the paywall.
28:45
SPEAKER_00: And then on the other side of that,
28:46
talk about how each of us would go about it if we were Chuck
28:50
Schumer and or Hakeem Jeffries.
28:51
SPEAKER_00: Or is there something you want to say?
28:53
SPEAKER_00: Something you want to say before we- No, no, no.
28:55
SPEAKER_00: That's good.
28:56
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
28:56
SPEAKER_00: All right.
28:57
SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear us talk about the game theory from here,
29:02
SPEAKER_00: you can go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.