Latest / Beyond the Summit with Amir Golshani / Iran Is Closer to Collapse Than Anyone Admits | Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani
Transcript
- Amir Golshani: Welcome back. Today we are standing at the edge of history. For 47 years, the world has looked at Iran through the lens of crisis. Today we look at it through the lens of a conclusion. Our guest today is a man who has lived in the room where it happens for decades. He is a veteran of strategic communications, a former chief of staff to the Crown Prince of Iran, and currently the director of the Iran Freedom Project. He's the son of an OPEC hostage, a bridge between East and West, and the strategic mind behind the vision for a Polaristic Iran. Mehdad Marty Yousafiani, welcome to Beyond the Summit. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Amir Golshani: Mehmet, you have spent over 30 years at the intersection of high stakes lobbying and geopolitical risk. But your started ⁓ long that, with your survival of the 1975 OPEC siege. How did growing up in the shadow of that kind of political violence shape your personal North Star? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Yeah, well, I mean, that's an interesting question. I mean, we all have our individual stories and narratives in life. ⁓ is nothing different from a different Iranian living at various intervals of time. I am a son of ⁓ an oil executive, a born in Tehran, raised in Tokyo, Japan. And so I am like everybody else, a collective of my personal experience. so that your reference to my father having been taken hostage in 75 by Carlos at OPEC obviously influenced me at the time, but I don't know if the Iranian revolution itself wasn't even more impactful. or what we're going through today ⁓ war and falling at the homeland. we are generation of traumatized Iranians. This trauma has caused most distinctly after for us collectively. So I'll just it at that. Amir Golshani: Yeah, I appreciate sharing that. Thank you so much. So you were the chief of staff to the Crown Prince for 15 years. You have seen the Iranian opposition and it's the strongest and it's most fragmented. Looking back, what was the specific aha moment that convinced you that your life's work had to be the liberation of Iran? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Yeah, titles are really relevant, chief of staff or chief strategic counselor or whatnot. But yes, ⁓ many, many years, I served at the side of Prince Reza Pahlavi. And prior to I known him socially. And my profession in Washington, been political campaign management. used to be partners with ⁓ GOP legendary strategist, Ed Rollins. And so that was what I was practicing. was a practitioner of ⁓ communications election campaigning. And so at one point, I think was approaching maybe 99 or 2000, where it made sense. Iran was just going through its transformation. ⁓ I think we all recognize that Iran needed to have its trial and errors, promises of reform failing, reform failing, the double talk constantly offering the one visage and practicing. So that all needed to have its trial and error. Around 2000, it clear that it may be the right time to step in and see what ⁓ can be done. So that was really the initial phase of ⁓ to step in and see what can be done, especially in terms of engaging. was technology was just being influenced by communication at the time. Phones and texts and so forth were just starting to come. Direct internet communication was just starting to develop. And of course, we are beyond that. So here we are net result of at least 25, 30 years of working at it. Amir Golshani: Yeah, I love it. So let's focus on present moment. are currently in a fragile, two-week ceasefire. From your perspective, is this a genuine diplomatic opening or it is merely the regime's survival reflects to avoid total institutional collapse after the strikes in March? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Yeah, that's I think this is the million dollar question the world is contemplating. I because of the history, the 47 year history of the Islamic Republic, I don't have much confidence in a their sincerity, be their capacity to actually deliver. We've seen for four decades a variety of interest groups and rivalries. within the Iranian ⁓ irrespective of which group is leading, at which point we've always seen that the other groups either jointly or separately undermine what's happening. So if the of this dialogue with currently being in Pakistan is Mr. Qali Boff, I'm not sure his rivals will allow him to actually deliver what Washington desires. And at the same time, I think it's a game of deliverables as well as a game of leverage. While the US has the bomb and the collective of sanctions as its leverage, the bomb meaning the tool of war and the Amir Golshani: Right. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: it's a game deliverables as well as a game of leverage. While the US has the bomb and collective of sanctions as its leverage, you know, the collective of sanctions as the Washington leverage. Islamic Republic of Iran has its control of Strait of Hormuz today, as well as its ⁓ threat of the program that had and most especially its leverage over proxy groups throughout the regime. I think it's a The Islamic Republic of Iran has control of the Strait Hormuz today, as well as its ⁓ threat of ⁓ the nuclear program battle of leverages and which one ends up chickening out. I fear that Washington may be capitalizing or investing too much not really recognizing fully the nature of Shia ideology. They're not it to chicken out. are in it to the end. This they see as for them. And let's not forget Shia I fear that Washington may be capitalizing or investing too much and not really recognizing fully the nature of Shia ideology. not in it to chicken out. They are in it to end. ideology has traditionally glorified martyrdom. So the cost of life for this regime not important. And that is something that I do not know if Washington in fact embraces property. Amir Golshani: You mentioned some great points. You mentioned main objectives of this war, know, so enrich uranium, highly enrich uranium, so control of Strait of Hormuz and proxies and missile programs. So there are main objectives the mission, believe, is still not accomplished looking that way. And also you mentioned rivalry between factions inside the country. And also I believe it's the matter of legitimacy. You have said the regime has lost its legitimacy. Here we talk about failed experiments. Why do you believe the Islamic Republic is no longer a state in a traditional sense, but rather a parasite on the Iranian civilization? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: We've seen, I think, have as Iranians, whether it be Iranian-Americans or Iranian-Europeans, wherever the diaspora is from the ⁓ and specifically the million today living inside, extract ⁓ the base the whether that is 10 or 15%, plus or minus. I think Iranians, by and large, have Iranians, by and large, come to the realization and conclusion that the regime has no legitimacy. Ideologically, it has failed. Economically, it has failed. Socially, it has failed. most having slaughtered of tens thousands of innocent Iranians, come to the realization and conclusion that the regime has no legitimacy. Ideologically, it has failed. Economically, it has failed. Socially, it has failed. most having slaughtered of tens thousands of innocent Iranians, I think that was the final straw, if you will, that broke the regime's legitimacy back. it really nothing to stand on. So the issue regime's legitimacy is of three areas that I think will define the moment supreme or the moment where the regime will in fact The first and foremost is what we just described, a losing its credibility. Amir Golshani: Absolutely. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: The Islamic Republic today, I think in the eyes of the Iranian people, most importantly, and now in the eyes of the world, has lost legitimacy. Number two, Iranian people, those living inside, need to find the confidence that those guns, ⁓ suppressive forces that killed our young men and women just a couple of months ago, is starting to unravel and so the confidence to, if you will, take to the streets. need to see that, otherwise they just revert to ⁓ just happened a couple months ago. Number three, they need to see a viable, reliable, alternative to the current regime. And that is the biggest challenge that we have because I think the first two conditions are meeting, legitimacy is gone. Hopefully, we will ⁓ see more defections. I think the defections are also largely tied to the third category, and that is viable alternative. I think if there were to be a legitimate, tangible, ⁓ verifiable Amir Golshani: Right. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: convincing and opposition that can actually take charge and ride that horse, I think that will also accelerate the defection within the Islamic Republic's suppressive forces ⁓ and enable Iranian people to achieve and meet deliver that moment supreme that the world is holding its breath. Amir Golshani: Yeah, absolutely. So I cannot put more emphasis on point that you just mentioned. It's a very critical point because people in Iran need to defect from Islamic Republic, but there has to be a viable option to defect to. Yeah, this is very important. it is heartbreaking to see the executions haven't stopped even during this war. why does a regime that claims to be defending its border against foreign enemies, spent so much energy killing its own people in the streets, even during the war. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: But let's not forget, it all goes back again to the ideology of this regime. we have learned cannot be bombed away. Ideologies be negotiated away. Ideologies are deeply embedded in philosophies and political of a regime, of a system. Today what we is a regime fighting for its survival. It is not fighting to win. It is fighting to survive. me take you back not just too far ago, because I think it's an exemplary demonstration of how far this regime is willing to go. And that is what this regime, under the command of the Revolutionary Guard, the SEPAH, as we call them, for about a decade, it sustained Bashar Assad in Syria. when Bashar Assad was at the moment of collapse, if it wasn't for the Islamic Republic of Iran's Sepah, going in there and actually slaughtering hundreds of thousands of Syrians, I think the numbers are in excess of 400, 500, 600,000 Syrians were slaughtered. from barrel bombs to phosphate bombs to, learned at some point, the famous red line was a ⁓ use of chemical warfare against a civilian. That was primarily directed, designed and executed by the Islamic Republic of Iran CEPA. It is the same people that will not hesitate to do the same domestically. And so there is the that world does not recognize because the Islamic Republic has its own rationale when it comes to politics and governance. It is compatible with that of the West and therein lies the challenge between when we learn Amir Golshani: Right. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: that ⁓ Vice President Vance may be leading in negotiations with Mr. Qalibaf, I fear the rationality of the Islamist regime that comes to the table, if not well understood by the Vice President and counselors, ⁓ I that ⁓ it'll like two ships passing each other in the dark of night, not recognizing where each is going and this opportunity be squandered again. Amir Golshani: Yeah, wonderful analogy. Yeah, absolutely. There is also a fear that if the regime survive this conflict, they will sprint toward a nuclear deterrent as their ultimate shield. Do you believe that West has finally realized that a nuclear deal is impossible with an entity that doesn't recognize the right for its own people to exist? There is also a fear that ⁓ if regime survive conflict, sprint a nuclear deterrent as their ultimate shield. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: I think that's a valid point of observation. think it's perfectly legitimate to draw conclusion that in fact this war, this round that has been paused, think any regime put shoes would probably deduce ⁓ that it is compelled to that final step. Because at the end of the day, they recognize that they do not have the matching power of your traditional conventional warfare technology. It cannot match that. It cannot match that of Israel's. In fact, militarily in terms of it may not match any of the important Persian Gulf, Arab states. So I would imagine that they would deduce they would need to take that final step. And therein lies the challenge because we have now seen this game, this play, played before where ⁓ action is taken, has been left ⁓ open-ended, leaving the regime deeply and then it will rely on extreme measures that it will desire, whether it be taking the Iranian streets with the that it has shown in terms of the iron fist that it has shown or taking on region and the world in terms of demonstrating that it has in fact taken the final step towards ⁓ that ⁓ weapon, nuclear Amir Golshani: Right. So you just mentioned a viable alternative. Let's talk about the United Transition. You have been a vocal advocate for pluralism. How do you convince a royalist, a Republican, and a leftist to sit at the same table when they have 47 years of trauma and disagreement between them? How do you convince a royalist, a Republican, and a leftist to sit at the same table when they have 47 years of trauma and disagreement between them? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Well, yes, we all know the challenges there and exiled politics are universally messy as ⁓ who has embraced a form of constitutional monarchy what I relevant, historically as a solution for Iran, the symbolism. But that is only form. of construct we're talking about. Fundamentally, the Iranian people, I believe, have come to the conclusion that they are committed to an elective democratic of governance. Now, whether at top is a monarch or at the top ⁓ is a in form of a republic, that is what I believe ⁓ Prince Reza has always suggested is the distinction he's looking for, though he may be a candidate for one form of that construct. So if that is approach, ⁓ have a fundamental ⁓ understanding in at least 90 % of what the Iranian people desire. That is an elective, representative, democratic government. Now, we also need to look at Iran. Iran today is not that of 1978. Back then it was 40 million people. Now we're 92, combined with those in exile, we're a nation of 100 million, with a variety of ideologies and political beliefs. Yes, the constitutional monarchists in Iran have an important standing. under a theocracy that we have, is impossible to gauge that, so we don't know what that percentage is. Is 10, 15, 20, 30, 40 percent? We don't know. But whatever that is, we have to. We have to assume that at least an equal percentage will be those who desire a republic. And then add to that dynamic we have the Iranian ethnicities, which turn ⁓ a variety of ideologies within themselves, which combined constitute 50 % of the Iranian population. So when you look at the dynamics of the Iranian polity, the Iranian political universe, it is not It is in fact colorful. I like to explain to some of my friends and neighbors that look at the Persian carpet, wonderful texture, ⁓ design, ⁓ colors, but collectively is what the beauty of the Persian carpet is, that collective visage, if you will. So the Iranian community right now today is that. ⁓ single color, no single shape can claim that it represents a vast super majority of all. And thus, having lived ⁓ ⁓ societies ourselves, me in the United States, our friends in Europe, ⁓ ⁓ we see that only way the best democracies in Europe have been able to deliver good governance has been through coalitions representing everybody. And so that is what solution that we are looking at for a collective to come together, whomever is the face of this ⁓ effort for Iran doesn't matter, but whomever that individual is, can be ⁓ Pahlavi for those who believe he is the strongest face out there. It would always, in my view, be him plus ⁓ him with everybody else representing all other ideologies. to take the Iranian ⁓ nation on the day after the collapse of this regime singularly offers a danger of ⁓ all who feel excluded uniting the center. So I ⁓ the ⁓ is much than the Amir Golshani: I love that. That being said, we all know that we need the bureaucracy, know, so the institutions, the middle level administrators within Iran to stay. Having the experience of Iraq and so many other countries, what happened, know, so when they were dismissed, how do signal to the average government worker in Iran that regime change isn't a threat to their family safety, but an invitation to a functional life. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: That's mission critical. I think everybody recognizes that. Having learned from the history of our neighbors, both to our East and to our West, Afghanistan and Iraq, and course, further out, Syria and Libya and so forth, it's critical. Remnants ⁓ of the former be expunged. We experienced that in Key. technocrats and bureaucrats ⁓ the previous era, the Pahlavi dynasty, remain behind. Now, eventually over time, many of them were cleansed. Paksazi the word that they used at the time. But it's critical today. Why? Because the Islamist ⁓ regime in has ⁓ managed to orchestrate a massive bureaucracy which numbers in the millions, three, four, five million, I think it's at least three million directly and multiple of that indirectly by bureaucracies and organizations that feed into the governmental machinery. So that is a monstrous number of human capital that cannot be excluded. Now, having said that, course, it's important to make a distinction. Those at the upper echelon whose hands ⁓ either bloodied or, if you will, sticky in terms of corruption, those people ⁓ will find exit appropriate to ⁓ whatever crimes may have committed. But it's the body that needs to be maintained. This is where narrative ⁓ and putting one's where one's mouth is the expression used here is critical. If we advocate the integration the rank and file ⁓ this current bureaucracy, narrative cannot be based on a discourse that invites vengeance, that invites ⁓ and promises equal. getting even. of ⁓ discourse out there on social media today trouble and many others ⁓ because we want to message into those who we desire to peel from that regime are being threatened promises of getting and vengeance and that is a catastrophe. because it will not accelerate defection. In fact, it will push those who we want to defect back into the arms of the regime because they do not know where they stand. And those who promise to come with a vengeance will be chasing them, so they will run away. Amir Golshani: Yeah, absolutely. Practice what you preach, know, freedom and democracy, 100%. So the Iran Freedom Congress held a summit in London recently. What was the signal sent from that meeting to the IRGC commanders who are currently questioning their loyalty to a dying supreme leader? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Well, a dead supreme leader and an absent one at that. So in terms of what signal it sent to the IRGC is, think, less consequential and important exactly at this time as opposed to the signal it desire to send to the Iranian people, to the opposition at large, whether it be domestically or in exile. And third, the signal it seeks to send to the powers that be are determining the future of Iran. The signal was very simple. What discussed earlier, that the Iranian society is not a monolith. We recognize that, number one. Number two, we recognize that the failure of the opposition to work together, come together, coalesce is partly be we recognize that the failure of the opposition to work together, together, coalesce is partly to be at fault and blamed for ⁓ paralysis and ⁓ disaster brought to our homeland today. at fault and blamed for ⁓ paralysis and ⁓ disaster brought to our homeland today. And so this is a ⁓ in ⁓ of time that enough enough. We have failed collectively inside and outside to work together. And so this was a step towards ⁓ making that into a cohesive ⁓ unit. make it happen. that was number two. And number three was also to show to the world outside that it can be done. It has been messy, much like elsewhere, but we are coming together, especially that exercise, this experiment called Iran Freedom Congress is actually collection ⁓ of real names and faces who can move needles inside Iran, not necessarily in Los Angeles and Toronto Munich, maybe not, maybe so, I can't be sure, but for sure these are people who have and are able to the needle inside Iran. Solid, long-standing ethnic leaders representing collectively 50 % of the Iranian ⁓ nation, solid ⁓ people who were formerly members of ⁓ regime who have abandoned it, who have defected it, ⁓ who have called repeatedly for regime change, people who currently in prison, ⁓ people who currently under arrest, ⁓ those kinds of who have a variety of alliances and linkage and perhaps loyalties within the breaking up regime. So people who have actually a game on the ground, including important ⁓ leaders, important ⁓ and civil society, organizational leaders and so forth. So it brought that collection together, hoping that it be able to ⁓ leave a spirit of open door ⁓ and an extension the hand to everybody else to come together to forge an alliance to save homeland. Amir Golshani: Yeah, I love that. Let's be hopeful for that hope. If you agree, let's talk about the region. The countries have been caught in the crossfire. ⁓ Do view them as passive participants or victims for the Islamic Republic's ⁓ regional Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: I there's no that the region has for years been very, very apprehensive, ⁓ repeatedly, cyclically ⁓ seen ⁓ variations of militancy issued by Islamic the earlier years in the 80s, we saw how it took on the House of Saud and irrespective the various interval thereafter, today see, though under the guise ⁓ of military bases in territories, it no that the Islamic Republic has been targeting those societies and civil targets as for their various drones and missiles. So, of the Islamic Republic's overreach ⁓ is not that can denied. Amir Golshani: Right. Another player is Turkey. Turkey's involvement in is often a wild card. In your strategic view, is Ankara a partner in a stable post-Mullah Iran or do you fear a ⁓ democratic Iran would their regional hegemony? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Well, mean, that's an issue that, know, ancient lands and civilizations have to ⁓ put into big picture perspective. Our region dates millennia. The Persian Empire, which out the entire region and beyond, has influenced ⁓ much of the ideology and sort of if you win of grandeur for many nation states that have survived various errors. ⁓ One challenge with not knowing exactly where it will finally end up, is ⁓ the sort of indications the of pan-Turkism. And that can be viewed in ⁓ troubling as we know the region from the Iranian, the Persian plateau given some of the former Soviet ⁓ states, is extension of territory and nations who such pan-Turkism may sort of have a reach and ambition for. So that can be a challenging viewpoint if Ankara ⁓ fact embraces that. ⁓ current leader of Turkey Erdogan has toyed with a combination ⁓ ⁓ Sunni slash pan-Turkism. So that is an issue. That is a challenge. that I worry about and we don't have a conclusive definition where it's going, that is something that ⁓ I everybody is looking at with careful Amir Golshani: Talking about Israel, Israel and Iran were once natural allies and you have spoken about the fraternal bond between Persians and Jews. If the regime falls tomorrow, how quickly can that Cyrus the Great era friendship be restored? Israel and Iran were once natural allies and you have spoken about the fraternal bond between Persians and Jews. If the regime falls tomorrow, how quickly can that Cyrus the Great era friendship be restored? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Yeah, it's actually important to double down and emphasize. It's beyond fraternal. I think the fraternal ⁓ bond to neighbors within the region. The Arab states the Persian Gulf are neighbors to their east, west, north and south. ⁓ ours is a bond. The Persian and the Judaic civilizations have a bond that goes least three or four millennia. That undeniable. It's one the longest standing, deeply intertwined relationships the Let's not And I emphasize point to many. of my friends, Americans and Europeans who necessarily do not see it as how it is. And that is of faith is what the definition ⁓ is Iran as opposed to Jews in Iran. So, and why I say that? because unlike many societies today, for example, Latin America or Europe or Asia or Africa, where because of circumstances, Jews have had to migrate and move around, the Jews in Iran have been there for at least 3000 years. at least 1000 years before the birth of Islam. So, the Jews throughout the Persian history have contributed enormously, undeniably our art, music, science, medicine, the the Jews or Persians who happened to practice the faith of Judaism have throughout our history played important roles as counselors and members of a variety of royal courts. So none of these are deniable. And that is why I believe of what has transpired ⁓ the past 47 years, it natural, it is intuitive. It is civilizational bond that will return. Now, want to ⁓ a caveat here as well. I do worry that some of the narrative and of ⁓ the management today may pose a risk ⁓ harming or or challenging that alliance. That's where I would counsel our Israeli friends to be careful. Infrastructure targeting, careless targeting whereby civilians. Those issues that regime will ⁓ use to sort of ⁓ Israeli relationship. And that's where needs to be smart. ⁓ communicate and ensure that the military targeting is not confused with a civilizational challenge between our two people. Amir Golshani: Absolutely, Mertad, ⁓ you live the West, but your heart is clearly in Iran. When you close your eyes and think of free Iran, what is the first image that comes to your mind? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Well, I think all of us born in Iran, especially a child of the pre-1978 era, it has always pained me to and always ask this question that we all do. What would come? What would have been? Where would have we been? Where would have Iran been? had we not had this catastrophic reroute brought by the Islamic Republic. So the first thing that comes to my heart is a warm joy that at least ⁓ we ⁓ find chance to ⁓ get on track ⁓ and catch up ⁓ and regain the direction that Iran was pursuing back then. No, things were not perfect, but for sure, was modernizing. For sure, Iran was heading to a bright future. As an of Iranian heritage, having been ⁓ given refuge America, having been given opportunities here, having been in fact a practitioner, of politics and electioneering here in America, I can only hope that it is experiences such as that, it be mine or those in Silicon Valley or those in the sciences, the arts, the academe, industry, can only that we can help transfer some of experiences. So while being torn that my homeland of birth is being militarily challenged by the homeland that gave me refuge. I can only hope that conclusion can come about whereby at least, at least 92 million people inside Iran can find the freedom they deserve so that they can build on their own with our help ⁓ future that is the destiny of the Iranian people. Amir Golshani: I appreciate that. I want to close on a personal note. We have covered the war, the politics and the philosophy. ⁓ After everything seen, ⁓ lost and for, what does freedom mean to you personally? Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: The freedom I've had here in America and traveling, having traveled the world, clearly ⁓ of peers who live in Iran, who just for the right of choosing how to clothe themselves or just to the right to exercise ⁓ their different political view. is met bullets, chains slaughter. is unfathomable me because sadly fortuitously, which one it is I don't know, I have not experienced that. people in the world, at in the world, have not that. To know that you can go out and be shot for just the way you look, just the way you talk, just the way you think, just the way you dream is incomprehensible. freedom is, I think, all of that combined for a person to be able to wake up in the morning and learn the day can come to an end without a loss of life just because the way they are. Amir Golshani: Merdad, thank you for your unwavering service to the idea of free Iran. Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani: Thank you so much.