Latest / Inside Politics / Most people don’t have trusts, or multiple houses: Bill Shorten on the budget’s tax changes

Transcript

Most people don’t have trusts, or multiple houses: Bill Shorten on the budget’s tax changes · Inside Politics

• 0:01
  S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from
• 0:04
  S1: the newsrooms of the age and The Sydney Morning Herald.
• 0:06
  S1: We have so much to talk about today because we're
• 0:09
  S1: officially in our budget backlash era. As Taylor Swift might
• 0:12
  S1: have it, with claims of death, taxes and the killing
• 0:15
  S1: of aspiration and the outrage cries of crypto bros across
• 0:19
  S1: the nation. Not to mention, of course, the genuine anxiety
• 0:22
  S1: amongst regular small business owners and regular shareholders who are
• 0:25
  S1: now unsure about how all of these changes might affect
• 0:27
  S1: their own arrangements. Our special guest star this week is
• 0:31
  S1: former labor opposition leader Bill shorten, who is now the
• 0:34
  S1: vice chancellor of the University of Canberra. And it's very
• 0:37
  S1: fortuitous that we have him on, because he knows a
• 0:39
  S1: thing or two about backlashes to reform proposals. And of course,
• 0:43
  S1: I'm also joined by our chief political correspondent, Paul Satchell,
• 0:46
  S1: who is in Canberra. Bill is joining us from Melbourne. Hi, fellas.
• 0:50
  S2: Good morning Funsters. Ready for another discussion about politics?
• 0:53
  S3: We're all split up today.
• 0:55
  S1: I know we've really got to get our act together
• 0:57
  S1: and all get in the same room one day, but
• 0:58
  S1: who knows what would happen that would be so crazy.
• 1:00
  S1: Is the world even ready for that anyway? No it's not.
• 1:05
  S1: Is the world ready for these tax changes? That's the
• 1:07
  S1: more pertinent question. Bill, you famously took changes to negative
• 1:11
  S1: gearing and capital gains tax to the 2016 and 2019 elections.
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  S1: So you're probably having a bit of déja vu right now.
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  S1: They were rejected by the public after strong criticism on
• 1:21
  S1: mainstream media and social media. Again, not unlike what we're
• 1:23
  S1: seeing now. So I'm really interested in your reflections on
• 1:26
  S1: the backlash and the criticisms to these reforms, which has
• 1:29
  S1: really heated up this week. And for any listeners who
• 1:31
  S1: haven't been following along super closely, you know, the the
• 1:35
  S1: criticisms are along the lines of, you know, the government's
• 1:37
  S1: making a tax grab in general, but they're also taxing aspiration.
• 1:42
  S1: And they have even been accused of wanting to institute
• 1:47
  S1: death tax. What do you think, Bill?
• 1:51
  S2: Well, great to be back with you both. Um, listen,
• 1:55
  S2: I'm not in politics anymore. I'm enjoying leading the University
• 1:58
  S2: of Canberra, but from the cheap seats at the university.
• 2:02
  S2: I would say that the country has been ready for
• 2:04
  S2: these tax reforms for at least ten years. I don't
• 2:07
  S2: share that analysis that these reforms are the reason why
• 2:09
  S2: we didn't get enough votes. Remember, we narrowly lost to
• 2:13
  S2: Turnbull and to Morrison. I think there were plenty of
• 2:16
  S2: factors in that loss, and I wouldn't put that at
• 2:18
  S2: the feet of negative gearing. So I think the nation
• 2:21
  S2: is ready, and my data for that is that there's
• 2:24
  S2: now millions more voters on the roll who don't have
• 2:28
  S2: negatively geared portfolios. Some of the people who voted in
• 2:32
  S2: 2016 have passed on. So there's a sea change and
• 2:36
  S2: now even more, as we predicted. But now even more
• 2:39
  S2: is housing are in accessibility for first home buyers and
• 2:44
  S2: acute issue. I mean, 40% of Sydneysiders are renting nearly
• 2:47
  S2: that in Melbourne. Housing prices just sky rocketing in Brisbane
• 2:51
  S2: and Perth. Ordinary punters, first home buyers have been losing.
• 2:54
  S2: And the whole case for reform is that. why should
• 2:57
  S2: property in income derived from property be taxed preferentially to
• 3:01
  S2: income derived from going to work every day and work
• 3:03
  S2: slogging your guts out?
• 3:05
  S3: Bill, on the reaction, particularly this week. It seems that
• 3:09
  S3: the crux of the criticisms on two points one, the
• 3:13
  S3: inclusion of a new tax on testamentary trusts. And the
• 3:17
  S3: second point is a question of whether the government needed
• 3:21
  S3: to include all asset classes in its CGT discount changes,
• 3:25
  S3: or whether they should have been narrowed just to property.
• 3:27
  S3: The framing of the budget is clearly around making the
• 3:30
  S3: housing market fair, so critics have argued that those changes
• 3:33
  S3: shouldn't have been extended to productive assets, which could crimp investment.
• 3:37
  S3: There's been some reporting this week that suggested that your
• 3:40
  S3: policies in 2015 did include shares and small businesses. I wonder,
• 3:45
  S3: is that the case, and was this considered at the
• 3:48
  S3: time by the opposition that first put forward these proposals?
• 3:53
  S2: Oh, are you going back into history? Um, we took
• 3:56
  S2: CGT changes, uh, and negative gearing to 2016. Then in,
• 4:01
  S2: I think the New South Wales ALP conference of 2017,
• 4:04
  S2: we introduced trust changes. Uh, in 2016, I think my
• 4:08
  S2: recollection is we were proposing a 25% discount rate, not
• 4:12
  S2: a 50% discount rate. You've got me on whether or
• 4:14
  S2: not shares were included or not. I've gone back and
• 4:17
  S2: checked and someone absolutely tells me they were, and someone
• 4:20
  S2: else absolutely tells me they weren't. I guess it's online
• 4:22
  S2: at the PBO. But yeah, the government's changes are slightly different. Uh,
• 4:29
  S2: you know, I think it'll be a matter of negotiation
• 4:32
  S2: through the Senate. But, you know, I think there's a
• 4:35
  S2: lot of people we talk about backlash. There's a lot
• 4:37
  S2: of people who are not commenting because frankly, they don't
• 4:40
  S2: have a, some sort of fancy discretionary trust. And they
• 4:45
  S2: a lot of people actually don't have multiple investment properties.
• 4:48
  S1: Yeah, I guess the point sort of there is that,
• 4:51
  S1: you know, the, the, the property investment suite or the
• 4:55
  S1: property investment case seems to have gone down actually pretty well.
• 4:59
  S1: The government framed this and nobody seems to be objecting
• 5:02
  S1: to that. In terms of the property investment case. The
• 5:04
  S1: government framed this very much as a property investment sort of,
• 5:07
  S1: you know, redress and also as an intergenerational equity, um, narrative.
• 5:12
  S1: But what they seem to maybe not have anticipated is
• 5:15
  S1: all of this blowback on people who are just normal
• 5:18
  S1: share investors and also small business and startup investors or
• 5:22
  S1: small people, business people. Do you think they sort of
• 5:25
  S1: didn't even think about that? Or is this all kind of, um,
• 5:28
  S1: what they expected in terms of the blowback?
• 5:31
  S2: I don't know, in in short, you know, I wasn't
• 5:34
  S2: privy to the discussions on the latest version of our reforms.
• 5:39
  S2: I'm sure they would have acted on the best advice
• 5:41
  S2: of Treasury. I think the government said they want to
• 5:44
  S2: get this through sooner rather than later. I'm sure they'll
• 5:47
  S2: have a look at all the concerns. Um, it wouldn't
• 5:50
  S2: be unknown for a government to propose a legislative package.
• 5:54
  S2: But by the time it gets to the Senate to negotiate,
• 5:56
  S2: it'll all depend on what evidence comes forward. So whether
• 5:59
  S2: or not they've underestimated the resistance. I know that when
• 6:02
  S2: you want to have a discussion in Australia saying that
• 6:05
  S2: personal income tax is too high, but property taxes are
• 6:08
  S2: probably too low, there will always be some people who
• 6:11
  S2: have constructed their arrangements to avoid paying the high marginal
• 6:14
  S2: rates of tax and chase the lower tax rates for property.
• 6:17
  S2: I understand that that's uncomfortable. I think the government's been
• 6:21
  S2: pretty sensible in what it calls grandfathering. In other words,
• 6:24
  S2: if you've invested under the current set of laws, you
• 6:26
  S2: can keep going. You're not retrospectively changing laws. Yeah, I,
• 6:30
  S2: you know, I think there's a lot of noise, a
• 6:32
  S2: lot of commotion, a lot of fireworks. But I'm not
• 6:36
  S2: sure that the government's not winning the argument a bit here.
• 6:39
  S3: Do you suspect that this this period now, Bill, just
• 6:42
  S3: a week on from the budget or a little bit more,
• 6:44
  S3: is that noisy, heightened period of anxiety that then billows
• 6:49
  S3: out and the government wins on the merits, or do
• 6:51
  S3: you suspect that, like the unrealized super policy last year,
• 6:55
  S3: that it might actually be a slow burn and the
• 6:57
  S3: concerns will widen over time? Well.
• 7:01
  S2: It's a matter of record that I led the charge
• 7:03
  S2: against the Abbott Hockey 2014 budget. The issue there though,
• 7:08
  S2: I mean, you know, it was one that was, you know,
• 7:09
  S2: great advocacy. But another issue from the opposition there was
• 7:13
  S2: that the Abbott hockey cuts were, um, stuck in the Senate. Uh,
• 7:19
  S2: if Anthony and the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, were able to
• 7:23
  S2: negotiate these matters through the Senate and quicker time, I
• 7:26
  S2: think then the the onus of proof changes back to
• 7:29
  S2: the opposition. Will they repeal these changes?
• 7:33
  S1: Well, Tim Wilson said at the Press Club this week
• 7:35
  S1: that they would repeal the changes. So then they basically
• 7:37
  S1: have to go to the next election saying not only
• 7:40
  S1: will they repeal all these changes and give back these
• 7:43
  S1: concessions to investors, they'll have to pay for them somehow
• 7:46
  S1: in the budget, along with their income tax pledge, which
• 7:49
  S1: we're going to talk about later. So I guess, as
• 7:52
  S1: you say, the focus, the onus will shift a little
• 7:54
  S1: bit onto the opposition.
• 7:55
  S2: If it can get through the Senate. Yeah, absolutely. Then
• 7:58
  S2: it's a different debate. Yeah. I mean, at the heart
• 8:01
  S2: of it, I think if the government sticks to the
• 8:03
  S2: position that the argument that income is taxed too heavily
• 8:07
  S2: and that property interests are taxed preferentially, too light, I
• 8:14
  S2: think a lot of Australians would nod their head in
• 8:15
  S2: agreement if they stick to the argument that why should
• 8:18
  S2: a first home buyer, a young couple in the outer
• 8:20
  S2: burbs of Melbourne or Sydney, or Perth or Brisbane, or
• 8:23
  S2: in the regions if they're. Why should they be competing
• 8:26
  S2: with someone who's got the coin taxpayer coin in their
• 8:29
  S2: pocket as an investor? So the ironic thing is a
• 8:33
  S2: young couple trying to buy a house are also paying
• 8:35
  S2: taxes to help the the other guy bid against them.
• 8:40
  S2: Like it's a bit silly, isn't it?
• 8:41
  S3: You've always said Bill since 2019. I think we all
• 8:44
  S3: see the last time you were on this podcast thinking
• 8:45
  S3: about future changes that, um, the most compelling argument you
• 8:49
  S3: could have made in 19 was that any tax hike
• 8:53
  S3: on assets would have been given directly back through structural
• 8:56
  S3: change to personal income tax. So relief for workers in
• 8:59
  S3: in compensation. And Bill Kelty has called that real reform,
• 9:02
  S3: including this week. Jim Chalmers rejects the idea of, you know,
• 9:06
  S3: changing the the brackets and indexing brackets to keep up
• 9:09
  S3: with inflation, which has been put forward by Angus Taylor.
• 9:12
  S3: He's instead created a new mechanism called the Watteau. This
• 9:15
  S3: is a tax offset that might grow over time just
• 9:18
  S3: for salary earners. Chris Minns, the New South Wales premier,
• 9:21
  S3: said on Wednesday that the government had to do much
• 9:23
  S3: more on income tax.
• 9:25
  S2: Do you think Jim and Anthony appreciated Chris's intervention?
• 9:27
  S3: Not sure they did. Do you reckon the government has
• 9:31
  S3: struck the right balance in the grand bargain here? Have
• 9:34
  S3: they done enough on income tax or is more needed
• 9:36
  S3: to be done?
• 9:37
  S2: Well, that'll be up for the voters to decide, ultimately.
• 9:39
  S2: But I think they've taken steps in the right direction. Um,
• 9:45
  S2: a tax offset is a reduction of the income tax
• 9:49
  S2: you pay. You know, reducing the rates is very expensive.
• 9:53
  S2: I think that's the sort of the holy grail. But
• 9:57
  S2: I think the tax offset is a step in the
• 9:59
  S2: right direction.
• 10:01
  S1: So Bill what did you make of Chris Minns intervention.
• 10:03
  S1: Because you know particularly in News Corp went really big
• 10:06
  S1: on it. And they said it was a civil war
• 10:07
  S1: within labor. And, you know, it was it was obviously
• 10:10
  S1: there were very pointed comments from the New South Wales Premier,
• 10:13
  S1: who's supposed to be on the same side as Labor
• 10:15
  S1: prime Minister. What did you make of that? Do they
• 10:17
  S1: not like each other?
• 10:19
  S2: I've been in a civil war.
• 10:21
  S1: Yeah. You know all about.
• 10:22
  S2: It is not a civil war. This is not this
• 10:24
  S2: is not a civil war.
• 10:26
  S1: But was it?
• 10:26
  S2: But no, listen. No doubt, no doubt there'll be people
• 10:29
  S2: in the Prime Minister's office going, oh, thanks, Chris. And
• 10:31
  S2: no doubt, Chris. Chris is you know, Chris doesn't work
• 10:34
  S2: for the feds. He's the premier of New South Wales.
• 10:36
  S2: So I think the exchange of opinions is not a disaster.
• 10:40
  S2: It's certainly not a civil war. Um, I can imagine though,
• 10:44
  S2: the feds weren't happy with the state intervention. And no
• 10:48
  S2: doubt at some point the state will do something and
• 10:50
  S2: the feds will share their free opinion too.
• 10:52
  S1: Yeah. What do you think Chris means? Angle was there.
• 10:54
  S1: I mean, obviously he talked about the pay rises that
• 10:56
  S1: he's given to nurses and teachers and basically said they're
• 10:59
  S1: being eroded because of of bracket creep. I suppose he's
• 11:03
  S1: got an election that he's facing next next year. So
• 11:06
  S1: maybe he doesn't want to he wants to differentiate himself
• 11:09
  S1: from the federal brand if it's unpopular in this sense.
• 11:12
  S2: Ah, you know, one can conjecture and forecast and predict
• 11:16
  S2: and read the tea leaves.
• 11:17
  S1: Want you to do Bill.
• 11:19
  S2: Yeah yeah, yeah. Come on. One of the dilemmas is,
• 11:22
  S2: of course, I know just about everyone in this debate.
• 11:25
  S1: I know.
• 11:25
  S2: That's why I'm not really sure that I'm not sure
• 11:27
  S2: that I can meaningfully add anything, which either Chris Minns
• 11:30
  S2: or Anthony Albanese will be sitting taking notes, although they
• 11:33
  S2: should be listening to this podcast because there's insight here.
• 11:35
  S2: There's gold here, you know.
• 11:38
  S1: That was very skillfully sidestepped.
• 11:41
  S3: Yeah, that was nice.
• 11:41
  S2: That's gold. No, no. That's good. You guys are like
• 11:44
  S2: gold prospectors looking.
• 11:45
  S3: For in a bigger picture sense. What do you make
• 11:47
  S3: of the the relationship between those two really, you know,
• 11:51
  S3: powerful labor figures, biggest leader of the biggest state prime minister,
• 11:55
  S3: both ascendant in different ways. What do you make of
• 11:58
  S3: their relationship and the contest between them?
• 12:00
  S2: Only what I've seen. I'd say it's respectful. They've each
• 12:04
  S2: got a job to do. But you know, New South
• 12:06
  S2: Wales government's interests will coincide with the federal government's interests
• 12:10
  S2: and vice versa. But sometimes the feds will have a
• 12:13
  S2: different perspective and sometimes the states will. That's we you know,
• 12:18
  S2: it's called having different levels of government. So yeah, I'm
• 12:21
  S2: not sure I can add any more than that. I
• 12:23
  S2: don't have any juicy inside tidbits. I don't know what
• 12:27
  S2: they say to each other on signal or about each
• 12:30
  S2: other on signal.
• 12:31
  S1: Um.
• 12:32
  S2: Some of you guys have got good. Some of you
• 12:34
  S2: got good connections there. Maybe you could find out the
• 12:36
  S2: inside drum and give it to us.
• 12:37
  S3: I'll try.
• 12:37
  S1: Bill, we know that. We know that Gladys didn't much
• 12:40
  S1: like Scott Morrison, that's for sure. But that's going back
• 12:42
  S1: into the distance past.
• 12:43
  S2: Sometimes being in the same party isn't always a predictor
• 12:46
  S2: of relationships.
• 12:47
  S1: No, in fact, the opposite sometimes.
• 12:48
  S2: There's a saying they have in the Labour Party. Why
• 12:50
  S2: does that person hate me? I never did them a favour.
• 12:55
  S3: Well, what was your biggest civil war? You said this
• 12:56
  S3: isn't a civil war. What comes to mind when you
• 12:58
  S3: think about your biggest internal.
• 13:00
  S2: The biggest civil war was the one between the states
• 13:02
  S2: in America. I wasn't there for that in terms of myself. Uh,
• 13:05
  S2: when were the A.W. went through amalgamations with the ironworkers? Lordy,
• 13:09
  S2: that was complicated.
• 13:10
  S1: Wow. Okay. Yeah, we're going back. Um, I want to
• 13:14
  S1: ask you, Bill, about budgets. Budget in reply speeches, because
• 13:18
  S1: you're something of an expert in them. I think you
• 13:20
  S1: told me six.
• 13:20
  S2: Of them later. Yeah.
• 13:21
  S1: Six. So that that makes you I mean, you could
• 13:24
  S1: give a Ted talk about budgets and reply.
• 13:26
  S2: No one would listen, but that's okay.
• 13:28
  S1: Um, what was your big take out from Angus Taylor's
• 13:30
  S1: budget in reply? I mean, he did make some big
• 13:33
  S1: pledges in it. There was a few good headlines out
• 13:35
  S1: of it.
• 13:36
  S2: Uh, well, a lot of content in it. Uh, and
• 13:39
  S2: it's the one time in the year that the opposition
• 13:41
  S2: leader gets equal billing. So it's a very important speech. Um, listen,
• 13:45
  S2: I without getting into what I think about the specific policies,
• 13:49
  S2: just from an, you know, from a former insider's view
• 13:53
  S2: in that half an hour and it's about half an hour,
• 13:56
  S2: you've got, I think you're probably better off trying to
• 13:59
  S2: do less than more. So I think he had two
• 14:02
  S2: big points in his speech. One was about immigration. And
• 14:04
  S2: then at the 22 minute mark, he got to the
• 14:08
  S2: bracket creep policy. I'd have, you know, everyone's an expert.
• 14:12
  S2: I say to Angus, if he's listening, everyone used to
• 14:14
  S2: tell me what I didn't do properly, but I'd have
• 14:17
  S2: probably picked one of the issues and focused on that
• 14:20
  S2: rather than trying to cover two. And I'd have probably
• 14:23
  S2: thought bracket creep. Uh, I mean, the challenge with One
• 14:27
  S2: Nation and maybe we'll talk about them is you can
• 14:29
  S2: either try an out one nation, one nation, or you
• 14:31
  S2: go to the economy. Um, and I think that's clearly
• 14:34
  S2: what Jim and Anthony did in theirs. And, um, I mean,
• 14:38
  S2: one Nation, certainly a giant force these days, and it's
• 14:41
  S2: getting everyone's attention as it should. But I think that
• 14:45
  S2: when you're talking about tax and bracket creep, I'd probably,
• 14:49
  S2: I don't know. Listen, everyone's an expert after the event.
• 14:53
  S2: It was a meaty speech he gave, which was. That's significant.
• 14:56
  S2: But I'd have probably focused on one, not two items
• 14:59
  S2: on the.
• 14:59
  S1: I mean, as you say, he sort of front loaded
• 15:01
  S1: the speech with the immigration pledges. So he said that,
• 15:04
  S1: you know, he would tie immigration levels to housing one
• 15:07
  S1: house per one immigrant, basically. So he wouldn't tell us
• 15:11
  S1: what that meant in terms of numbers of immigrants. And
• 15:13
  S1: he also said that immigrants would be restricted from accessing
• 15:18
  S1: certain welfare programs, including the NDIS, until they became citizens.
• 15:23
  S1: And some people, of course, kind of never become citizens.
• 15:25
  S1: They stay here almost their whole lives as permanent residents,
• 15:27
  S1: never become citizens and pay tax and what have you.
• 15:30
  S1: But they wouldn't be allowed to access certain welfare programs. Now,
• 15:34
  S1: I wonder, um, that front loading might have been a
• 15:36
  S1: response to their sort of fear about one Nation like
• 15:39
  S1: eating their lunch. I just wonder what for your reflections, Bill,
• 15:43
  S1: about how careful the coalition has to be in not
• 15:47
  S1: demonizing immigrants or offending immigrant communities within Australia, and also
• 15:51
  S1: holding this hard line on immigration. And are they managing
• 15:53
  S1: that balance at the moment?
• 15:56
  S2: I think the main parties have a challenge. In some
• 16:00
  S2: parts of Australia. There's a backlash against the high rates
• 16:04
  S2: of immigration. On the other hand, there are quite a
• 16:07
  S2: lot of immigrants in Australia. And also, I think on balance,
• 16:12
  S2: the data shows that immigrants tend to be being an
• 16:15
  S2: immigrant tends to be a predictor of paying more tax
• 16:18
  S2: and being more in the workforce. So it's a difficult
• 16:22
  S2: issue which the Western world is grappling with. So, you know,
• 16:25
  S2: I recognise you. There's countervailing tendencies. I think part of
• 16:31
  S2: the question is, after One Nation's remarkably successful showing in
• 16:34
  S2: Pharaoh with a massive primary vote, Out the major parties,
• 16:38
  S2: probably more for the Liberal than labor parties. But, you know,
• 16:42
  S2: labor can't ignore it is what's the best way to
• 16:44
  S2: provide an alternative? Because I do think One Nation has
• 16:47
  S2: tapped into a resentment in especially regional Australia, but not
• 16:51
  S2: just regional Australia. And the resentment isn't just about immigration.
• 16:55
  S2: I think some of the polls I've seen are about 30%
• 16:58
  S2: of One Nation voters at the moment are voting on immigration,
• 17:01
  S2: but the other 70% aren't. It's about the economy. You know,
• 17:05
  S2: a lot of these regional towns and Farrah, but not
• 17:07
  S2: just Farrah and also for labor and perhaps Central Coast
• 17:11
  S2: or Hunt or other parts of Australia. It is a
• 17:14
  S2: sense that globalisation hasn't delivered. 30, 40 years ago, I
• 17:19
  S2: remember as a junior AWU organiser, um, you know, there
• 17:23
  S2: would be an abattoir and a lot of these towns,
• 17:24
  S2: there'd be a small manufacturing outfit, you'd have local hardware producers, you,
• 17:31
  S2: so you'd have a range of services and a lot
• 17:33
  S2: of them are gone. The other thing is in regional Australia.
• 17:36
  S2: Some of the health statistics are alarming. And, you know,
• 17:40
  S2: Australians are across the board under a cost of living
• 17:43
  S2: crisis may put off necessary medical treatment, but that's even
• 17:46
  S2: greater in the regions. So I think there is genuine
• 17:49
  S2: a sense of being forgotten. You know, the a lot
• 17:52
  S2: of younger people are moving to the big provincial cities,
• 17:54
  S2: and there are some very successful country towns or to
• 17:58
  S2: the coast. And so you've got an ageing population who
• 18:01
  S2: feel forgotten. And the question is, do you try and
• 18:05
  S2: tackle that by attacking immigration, or do you tackle it
• 18:09
  S2: by looking at the economy and provision of health?
• 18:13
  S3: Yeah, I think that's a big debate in the Liberal
• 18:15
  S3: Party is most of the moderates are kind of gritting
• 18:17
  S3: their teeth at the moment, letting Taylor take increasingly hardline stances,
• 18:22
  S3: but quietly thinking to themselves, can't we just talk about
• 18:24
  S3: the tax policies? On the other hand, you've got the
• 18:27
  S3: people around Taylor who've taken the view that you can't
• 18:29
  S3: even start to talk about practical economic policy unless you've
• 18:32
  S3: won back the trust of conservatives on issues that are
• 18:35
  S3: more emotional, like migration. So it's about.
• 18:37
  S2: Taking the the 30,000ft perspective of this debate, which I
• 18:41
  S2: can now do. I could ask you, do you like
• 18:44
  S2: standing in the rain in a poll? And most people
• 18:46
  S2: will say no. I can ask, but that doesn't mean
• 18:49
  S2: they're voting on whether or not it's raining. I can
• 18:51
  S2: ask people in a poll, do you think immigration is
• 18:53
  S2: too high? Most people probably say, well, yeah, but that
• 18:56
  S2: doesn't mean they're voting on immigration. And these days, what,
• 19:01
  S2: 34 in every 131 in every 100, I should know
• 19:04
  S2: this off by heart, were born overseas. There's significant and
• 19:08
  S2: welcome diasporas of Australians of South Asian heritage or Chinese
• 19:13
  S2: heritage who are contributing. No one ever complains. If you've
• 19:16
  S2: got a small businessman from one of those origins, move
• 19:19
  S2: next door or your local kids cricket team has one
• 19:22
  S2: of the kids or, um, you know, your small your
• 19:26
  S2: school has parents from different backgrounds because, you know, that's
• 19:29
  S2: going to add to the story of your own kids experience.
• 19:32
  S2: But I think there is a view that, especially in
• 19:35
  S2: some of the cities, that the infrastructure is overstretched. So
• 19:39
  S2: I guess the immigration debate is not black or white.
• 19:42
  S2: And I always worry about people who say, give a
• 19:44
  S2: simple answer to what I think is nuanced. Having said that,
• 19:48
  S2: I think it is about the economy. And, you know, again,
• 19:51
  S2: Labour doesn't have to take this advice. But if they
• 19:53
  S2: focus on health in the regions, the quality of health,
• 19:56
  S2: if they focus on educational opportunity, if they focus on
• 19:59
  S2: supporting industries in the regions, it's all about economics.
• 20:03
  S1: What do they say about immigration, though? Because at the moment,
• 20:06
  S1: I mean, they've pledged to bring the immigration numbers down
• 20:08
  S1: because they went to historic highs after, you know, after Covid,
• 20:12
  S1: they've said that they will bring them down. That seems
• 20:16
  S1: to be locked in, but otherwise they seem to avoid
• 20:18
  S1: the issue almost entirely. It wasn't mentioned in the budget
• 20:21
  S1: or any of the commentary around the budget. What if
• 20:24
  S1: you're if you're advising Labour now, do you tell them
• 20:27
  S1: just to keep avoiding the issue as much as possible
• 20:30
  S1: or don't.
• 20:31
  S2: I don't think it's avoiding the issue.
• 20:33
  S1: I think they're not talking about it.
• 20:35
  S2: No, but it's not the only issue. I think, um
• 20:39
  S2: a lot of people are feeling cost of living pressure.
• 20:41
  S2: I think a lot of people, not just in the regions,
• 20:44
  S2: but in parts of the regions feel forgotten. That's about jobs.
• 20:48
  S2: That's about health. They're actually good areas for labor. I
• 20:51
  S2: talk about that just with the immigration from a university perspective.
• 20:55
  S2: People forget, and I perhaps didn't appreciate it fully until
• 20:58
  S2: I came to the University of Canberra. International education is
• 21:03
  S2: only just behind coal, iron ore and gas. You know,
• 21:08
  S2: Australia has an incredible reputation and it delivers outcomes for Australians.
• 21:13
  S2: Every international student generates $70,000 in economic activity here. Um 80%
• 21:19
  S2: of these students do actually go home. But in the
• 21:22
  S2: meantime we are the beneficiary. There used to be the
• 21:24
  S2: big four in international education US, Canada, UK and US.
• 21:29
  S2: Now there's the big 14. Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore. Like
• 21:34
  S2: we have a distinct national advantage. Uh, but it's getting
• 21:39
  S2: the number of international students who rent premises in Australia, uh,
• 21:44
  S2: is barely 4 or 5% of the total renting market.
• 21:47
  S2: So whatever we do on international students, we need to
• 21:51
  S2: be careful. We don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
• 21:53
  S2: And it does deliver economic outcomes.
• 21:55
  S1: That is one of the visa classes that both sides
• 21:57
  S1: of politics are talking about rolling back because, um, whatever
• 22:01
  S1: the whatever the reality is, the perception is, particularly in
• 22:03
  S1: the big cities that international students and temporary visa holders, um,
• 22:08
  S1: there isn't the infrastructure to support them, particularly in housing.
• 22:10
  S2: If you can't get an MRI scan within two hours
• 22:13
  S2: drive in the country, that's not the fault of an
• 22:14
  S2: international student. No, no, if you're an abattoir, I mean,
• 22:18
  S2: in fact, most abattoirs have been kept alive by using
• 22:20
  S2: visa workers, frankly.
• 22:22
  S1: Um, well, the person doing your MRI is likely to
• 22:24
  S1: be from um have been born in another country.
• 22:27
  S2: Good luck. If you can go to any hospital in
• 22:29
  S2: Australia and you need urgent care. And we don't end
• 22:32
  S2: up saying thank you to someone who's come here through
• 22:35
  S2: a visa.
• 22:36
  S3: Just quickly, Bill on how the centre left reacts to
• 22:40
  S3: the new debate on migration. With One Nation shifting well
• 22:43
  S3: out to the right, the Liberals mimicking them. In some
• 22:46
  S3: ways it obviously leaves a big gap and shifts the
• 22:48
  S3: Overton window a bit. And where the debate is and
• 22:50
  S3: what the policy solutions are. Do you think labor has
• 22:53
  S3: an opportunity to develop a kind of some kind of
• 22:56
  S3: new language around, um, culture and values that doesn't lean
• 23:01
  S3: into anything near racism, but just allows the government to
• 23:04
  S3: come to the centre and acknowledge the problem a bit,
• 23:06
  S3: particularly with the political ascendancy it has. Or should the
• 23:09
  S3: party stay where it is on migration?
• 23:11
  S2: What was that window which was opening?
• 23:13
  S3: Overton window. This is there's an idea that, like, you know,
• 23:16
  S3: the the window of things that are seen as within,
• 23:20
  S3: you know, possibility of being acted on can shift if
• 23:24
  S3: someone changes the debate and brings in a radical solution
• 23:26
  S3: and that becomes mainstreamed is used a lot in the US.
• 23:30
  S3: Your colleague, your friend James Massola likes to use this
• 23:32
  S3: in his columns quite a bit.
• 23:35
  S2: Free product placement for James Massola.
• 23:37
  S1: And the Overton Window.
• 23:40
  S3: Sorry to be.
• 23:41
  S2: All the things that you didn't want. Didn't know, didn't know.
• 23:44
  S2: You didn't know about the Overton Window. Anyway, I just
• 23:46
  S2: didn't want to let that go by because I think
• 23:48
  S2: it's important that, you know, this should be educative for
• 23:51
  S2: the kids at this show. Um, listen, I think, uh,
• 23:55
  S2: as a general rule of thumb, parties, the center, by
• 23:58
  S2: moving to the extremes are never going to be better
• 24:00
  S2: than the extremes at doing extreme. So you're better off
• 24:03
  S2: playing on your home. Home ground advantage. Um, so in
• 24:06
  S2: terms of policy, the economy, the economy, the economy in
• 24:09
  S2: terms of labor health.
• 24:10
  S1: But when what we're getting at Bill is when they
• 24:13
  S1: do talk about immigration, what do they say? What's the line?
• 24:16
  S1: Is it we you know, the line so far has
• 24:19
  S1: been basically Australia is a successful, um, you know, country
• 24:24
  S1: of migrants. And it's very pro-immigration, if you like. Meanwhile,
• 24:27
  S1: you know, we're also going to cut back the numbers.
• 24:29
  S1: What should the line be? What should the narrative be
• 24:32
  S1: for labor on immigration?
• 24:34
  S2: Uh, they'll work that out. But I think that we
• 24:38
  S2: can't walk away from the advantages of immigration. We all
• 24:40
  S2: came here from somewhere else other than Indigenous Australians. So
• 24:43
  S2: that's about 97% of us. I think my first ancestors
• 24:46
  S2: were convicts, which won't surprise some of my detractors. On
• 24:49
  S2: the far right.
• 24:50
  S1: All the best people are descended from convicts.
• 24:52
  S2: It was 200 years ago. I did have a rally
• 24:54
  S2: at the, um, I'm going to flex the I did
• 24:56
  S2: have a relative at the Eureka Rebellion at Ballarat that
• 25:00
  S2: makes it. That makes you businessmen.
• 25:02
  S3: That's where your union blood comes from.
• 25:04
  S2: Well, also small business people complaining about licences and charges. Anyway, um,
• 25:08
  S2: that's a rebellion with something for everyone. Um, the. I
• 25:13
  S2: think we've got to stand up for migration. I think
• 25:16
  S2: it's been good. I do think that there is an
• 25:18
  S2: anxiety that, uh, how many how fast can our infrastructure
• 25:24
  S2: keep up? You know, you can't ignore that argument. You
• 25:26
  S2: can't tell people they're racist for being concerned, to make
• 25:29
  S2: sure that we can house our own and we can
• 25:32
  S2: do our things. But you can win that argument with
• 25:34
  S2: science and evidence. But you can't. Just don't sneer at
• 25:36
  S2: someone who's worried about making sure that our infrastructure keeps up.
• 25:40
  S2: I think beyond that, you know, we've seen Bondi and
• 25:44
  S2: we've seen the pressure on social cohesion. We've seen the
• 25:48
  S2: rise in anti-Semitism. I think there's a level of disquiet
• 25:51
  S2: in the community. We want to make sure that our
• 25:54
  S2: migrants are adding to social cohesion, not exacerbating it. The
• 25:57
  S2: truth of the matter is our migrants, you know, to
• 26:00
  S2: a vast, vast, vast, vast, vast percentage do add to
• 26:03
  S2: our social cohesion. I think a lot of people I've
• 26:06
  S2: done hundreds of citizenship ceremonies. One of the things which
• 26:10
  S2: migrants from all around the world have said is, thank
• 26:12
  S2: goodness they're in Australia, where there's the rule of law,
• 26:15
  S2: where there is, um, you don't have sort of the
• 26:17
  S2: rampant corruption of other countries. So I just think it's
• 26:21
  S2: one of these things where the world is feeling uncertain
• 26:24
  S2: and we're seeing the rise of authoritarianism. We're seeing the
• 26:28
  S2: onslaught of social media, the attack on critical thinking, the
• 26:32
  S2: ability of social media to allow us to sit in
• 26:34
  S2: left wing silos, right wing silos, chicken wing silos. And
• 26:37
  S2: so I just think the parties of the center do
• 26:41
  S2: best when they govern from the center.
• 26:44
  S1: What about just to switch gears a little bit, we
• 26:47
  S1: we haven't checked in on the NDIS changes. We haven't
• 26:49
  S1: asked you about the NDIS changes because we haven't had
• 26:51
  S1: you on the podcast since they were announced. Huge, huge savings.
• 26:56
  S1: Are going to be cut out of that program. You
• 26:58
  S1: have intimate knowledge of it. Do you think those savings
• 27:00
  S1: are achievable?
• 27:03
  S2: Um, quite a few of the policies which were announced
• 27:06
  S2: in the budget were stuff which was based on the
• 27:09
  S2: reports done in my term as minister, I think it
• 27:12
  S2: is possible to restrain the growth of the scheme. When
• 27:16
  S2: labor got elected in 2022, in the middle of that year,
• 27:19
  S2: the previous financial year, the scheme grew by 22%. That's
• 27:23
  S2: too much. In my time, we got the growth rates
• 27:25
  S2: down to around 10%. That's still too high. Um, but
• 27:29
  S2: I think the trick is to make sure these policies work. One,
• 27:32
  S2: we've got to have a good gateway into the scheme.
• 27:34
  S2: Be clear on eligibility. Two, you've got to make sure
• 27:36
  S2: the people providing the services are fair dinkum and registered.
• 27:40
  S2: I think. Three we've got to make sure there are
• 27:42
  S2: services outside the NDIS which deliver for people whose needs
• 27:46
  S2: mightn't be the full NDIS orchestra, but still need some support.
• 27:49
  S2: So I think and the other thing, of course, is
• 27:51
  S2: all of that has to be done with co-design with
• 27:53
  S2: people on the scheme, the scheme's changing lives. I think
• 27:56
  S2: if people think it's just to pay for another nuclear submarine,
• 28:00
  S2: that's a disaster, which it's not the changes. I think
• 28:03
  S2: this is about making sure that the money's getting through
• 28:06
  S2: to the people within. The scheme was designed, and it's
• 28:08
  S2: not being wasted elsewhere.
• 28:10
  S1: So with your knowledge of the scheme, do you think
• 28:12
  S1: that the cuts, the level of cuts, the quantum of
• 28:14
  S1: cuts that Labor's proposing are achievable.
• 28:18
  S2: If they do all of those things? I said, I
• 28:21
  S2: think the trajectory from the first term can be sustained
• 28:24
  S2: to reduce the level of growth, whether or not they
• 28:27
  S2: get to a particular percent. Well, it's going to require
• 28:29
  S2: a lot of very hard work.
• 28:30
  S1: What do you think the political risks are for them
• 28:33
  S1: in in cutting such a well-used program?
• 28:37
  S2: If you if you read the headlines of some of
• 28:39
  S2: the press, you think everyone's just got a pitchfork and
• 28:42
  S2: hates the scheme. The reality is that, um, people hate
• 28:45
  S2: the crooks and they hate the waste. But there's been
• 28:48
  S2: no government scheme where there hasn't been crooks trying to
• 28:51
  S2: con in on it. I think ever since the Rum Corps,
• 28:54
  S2: there's always been someone trying to get government money to
• 28:57
  S2: line their own pocket. Medicare's now over 40 years old,
• 29:01
  S2: but it had pretty bumpy spots. And even now you've
• 29:03
  S2: got a proportion of Medicare fraud. So I think that
• 29:06
  S2: tackle the fraud, but don't throw the baby out with
• 29:09
  S2: the bathwater. To mix my metaphors, I think the scheme
• 29:12
  S2: is helping a lot of people and just make sure
• 29:15
  S2: that if we're going to move people from the scheme
• 29:18
  S2: to the appropriate level of services they need that they're
• 29:22
  S2: not kicked out with nothing. And so I think it's
• 29:25
  S2: just going to require a lot of seven day a week,
• 29:28
  S2: 24 hour stewardship and attention, because this is about people.
• 29:32
  S2: It's not about the budget, it's about people. Budgets don't
• 29:35
  S2: exist as an end in themselves. Budgets are a tool
• 29:38
  S2: to help the people, government serve the people. People don't
• 29:41
  S2: serve government or budgets.
• 29:43
  S3: One more from me and I know I'm ruining the
• 29:45
  S3: flow because I forgot to ask this earlier, but one
• 29:47
  S3: of the big talking points out of last week's budget
• 29:49
  S3: was the inclusion of discretionary testamentary trusts in the in
• 29:53
  S3: the trust crackdown. That wasn't part of your package in
• 29:56
  S3: 2015 and 16, bill. It's been labelled a death tax,
• 29:59
  S3: perhaps misleadingly. Why did you leave that out at the time?
• 30:03
  S2: Well, without being a complete pedant, our trust policy we
• 30:06
  S2: introduced at the New South Wales State Conference in 2017.
• 30:09
  S2: So there was nothing on trust in 16 but for
• 30:12
  S2: the 19 election. Mhm. Listen, I, I can't completely remember
• 30:16
  S2: every fine detail of that amazing platform. But, um, I
• 30:21
  S2: don't know if we included testamentary trusts or not. I
• 30:23
  S2: have to go back and check the Parliamentary Budget office.
• 30:26
  S2: There's always an issue as soon as you're talking about
• 30:28
  S2: testamentary arrangements that you are talking about inheritance, which then
• 30:32
  S2: leads to the possibilities of a scare campaign in a
• 30:35
  S2: way that franking credits weren't. But so I'd have to
• 30:38
  S2: go back and refresh my memory.
• 30:41
  S1: Just don't use the word testamentary. Um, it's a long
• 30:45
  S1: word to say and it conjures images of death, estate planning.
• 30:50
  S2: No happy ending.
• 30:50
  S1: No happy endings. Um, that's all we've got time for.
• 30:53
  S1: It's been a pleasure, Bill. Can we have you back
• 30:56
  S1: on again soon? And we'll. And to spill to spill
• 31:01
  S1: actual tea on the Chris Minns Anthony Albanese civil war
• 31:05
  S1: as dubbed by certain members of the media this week.
• 31:07
  S2: I keep saying I've seen a civil war. This is.
• 31:10
  S1: This is okay wasn't a civil war.
• 31:12
  S2: But it was an afternoon tea fracas.
• 31:14
  S1: It was appointed. It was appointed whack. I don't know,
• 31:17
  S1: whatever you'd call that. Um, it was, um, it was,
• 31:20
  S1: it was an unhelpful comment from the Prime Minister's point
• 31:23
  S1: of view, and it was made very deliberately. So I
• 31:25
  S1: thought it was interesting. Anyway, thank you for coming. It's
• 31:30
  S1: been a pleasure.
• 31:30
  S2: Thanks for inviting me. Thanks, fellas. Have a lovely day.
• 31:33
  S3: Great to talk, guys.
• 31:40
  S1: You can read all of our political news on our website,
• 31:42
  S1: theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong
• 31:48
  S1: with help from Debbie Harrington and Cormac Lally. Our executive
• 31:52
  S1: producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by
• 31:55
  S1: Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, please follow
• 31:59
  S1: Inside Politics and leave a review for us on Apple
• 32:02
  S1: or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.