Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / More Pain Coming?📉Crypto Market Update

Transcript

More Pain Coming?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Is more pain coming today.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: We'll be breaking that down for you and take a
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: look at the markets, but also a lot of indicators,
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: so make sure and stay tuned on that one. My
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: name is Paul Vera, Welcome back into the show. I
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• 0:48
  Speaker 2: over to a couple of points I want to hit on,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: and of course, the biggest issue right now is where
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: fear and greed is if you just take a quick
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: look on where it's hovering right now at about forty five,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: dipping back down quite a bit. But if you compare
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: this back down to our low which was back in
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: June versus what we saw around our high when we
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: were seeing bitcoin cracking at about one point twenty, you
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: can kind of see there is clear variations here that
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: continue to push the market down. Question mark is how
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: does this play out now the S and P and
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: when you look at traditional indexes out there a little
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: bit different notice and that is a little bit more
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: on the greed side. Obviously, what we're seeing with all
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: time highs on the stock exchange continue to push into
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: the market, and that is one thing to factor in
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: is how are they going in terms of liquidity. The
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Nasdaq one hundred, though, is extending its losses. This is
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: another negative four percent since August thirteenth. This may continue
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: to take profit and it also might just be a
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: small correction. Many people are still looking at is this
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: the beginning of a small correction or is this the
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: beginning of maybe a huge market correction? Tuning in, I
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: want to go over to a clip real quick, because
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: this is kind of where they're talking about are people
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: just taking profits?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: A look, but people don't.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: Take profits when they think the market's going to keep
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: going up. So have we seen a significant change in sentiment?
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Well no, no, no, wait a second.
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: It can be profit taken, but what that profit taking
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: could be motivated by some catalysts that you're seeing in
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: the marketplace. I do believe that Chairman Powell, there's a
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: high probability that his words are not in rhythm with
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: the market expectation, which is pricing in nearly an eighty
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: percent cut in September. So I think you're ultimately going
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: to get a reluctant cut.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: The median target for the SMP is sixty five hundred.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: That's about a two percent increase fro where we are
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: right now. The average is basically where we are today.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: So I mean, when you look at the institutional side,
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: at least, it doesn't seem to be a lot of
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: optimism for us to go up from this point. Anyway.
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: Well, I mean, we'll see how we'll see how we
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: get there. But I think the components of tariffs do
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: not populate through CPI, and so CPI is below three percent, right,
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: And Powell has been very clear, I don't need to
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: see inflation at too. It needs to be going in
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: the right direction. So when you looked at CPI, we
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: all got excited right to say, oh, tariffs are not
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: having to impact on inflation because the components don't go
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: into that. You know, owner equivalent rents has nothing to
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: do with tariffs. PPI it does though, And so what
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: I'm saying is that Powell has this juxtaposition of PPI
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: is showing you that tariffs are having to impact the
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: CPI doesn't. And so I think that you will continue
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: to see a more hawkus J. Powell because those the
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: PPI to me is the more relevant number.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: All right, Hawks J. Powell. That is something that is
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: playing out.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: If you look at the market just over the last
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: four days, down two percent on the S and P
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: five hundred and hovering.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Around that sixty three hundred.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: But if you listen to Tom Lee, he's been kind
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: of going back in on the point that he.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Still believes this is just a sideways correction. We're going
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to stick.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Can continue to see markets go going up, all right.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: A lot of people are bracing for what investors are
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: looking at from this pal speech. And Bitcoin of course
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: has been dipping. Basically right on top of that, we
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: saw almost near one twelve, which I think is a
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: very pivotal point on bitcoin. If we lose that position,
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: I think we could see some capitulation going into the markets.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin's dip below one thirteen snapshot of rising nervousness in
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: the market, and also everybody's looking at these narratives which
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: are settling in and liquidity return might pay the way,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: pay the way for a rebound. I think that is
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: the real question. Is there enough pullback here right now
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: in the markets, whether you're buying ether ethereum, or if
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: you're buying bitcoin or maybe other all coins, is there
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: enough in a pullback for you to jump in and
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: reclaim some of these and do.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Some dollar cost averaging.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know, let me know in the comments if
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: this is a time for you guys to be buying.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: If you look at the FED rate cut, opportunity go
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: to polymarket right here continuing to decline, hovering around sixty
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: nine percent literally as we join in on in this today.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: But right there was the high, and that was on
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: a quarter basis point cut compared to where we were
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: on the fifty basis points at a five point eight.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: That of course is really modeled down now where we
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: are at a sixty nine percent at time of filming,
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: and on a fifty we're at three point three, So
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: continue to decline as people are getting a little bit
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: more concerned about where Pal is going to be going.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: We're going to get into that and some more. Before
• 5:25
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• 5:54
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• 5:57
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• 5:59
  Speaker 2: the chain. Now what I'm getting at further on the
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: issue of what pressures are going against Powell right now,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: most of this is i would say, still being manipulated
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: to a certain extent by potus. And you look at
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: this right here, President Trump saying that the Fed is
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: destroying the housing market. Now, no inflation, Every sign is
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: pointing to a measure rate cut. It's where we should
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: be housing. Of course, lowest inventory we've seen. We actually
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: saw new houses starting to dip below that of houses
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: that are on the market, which is ironic. We haven't
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: seen those kind of data points before. And with that
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: playing into it, you look at where real inflation is
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: true inflation index still showing it around two two. Food
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: and beverage is up, and also health is up, and
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: then household and daily items. These are some of the
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: things that really get calculated. But it is climbing and
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: that is the real concern here. If we have rising
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: inflation and we continue to see some of these job
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: numbers being adjusted like what we're expecting in early September,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: this could be bad for markets, guys. And the other
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: factor into this, we just have target report, not good numbers.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Walmart's coming in on this. If they come in with
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: a week sale, then the question is is did we
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: wait too long? And if we did, then that means
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: we could accelerate to more of a fifty basis points issue.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Kobeec kind of hitting on this right here. A lot
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: of bankruptcies are now above the twenty twenty level. This
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: is not a bearish factor for the stock market because
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: the stock market doesn't care. It feels like they're just
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: operating on their own operation. Right now, ten percent of
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: stocks reflect right now a record of seventy six percent
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: of the equity market value. So it's the top and
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: the winners continuing to win. And that is the point
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: that I think a lot of people are looking at
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: because most markets still if you look at S and P,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: way up from where we are this time last year.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Most credit are a crypto also way up from this
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: time last year. And I think that is the big
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: factor is this is now a lagging market that is
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: now caving in on our economy mostly going to be
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: tied into two things, jobs and real estate as we
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: go forward. Because of that, here is a potential candidate
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: to succeed Chair Palell and that is David Zervos. This
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: is another guy that's claiming pala is wrong. He is
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: and should be replaced. He is definitely going after a
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: position that is much more conservative in the sense we
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: need to be on a rate cut. And if you
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: listen to a little bit more of what his policies are,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: take a look at this clip.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: So here's the big question, what would you do?
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: What would you do? Now?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: What do you think should they will do or should do?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: What would you do?
• 8:44
  Speaker 6: I mean what I would do is try to coalesce
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: the committee around the idea that policy is actually quite restrictive,
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: that the balance sheet of the Fed has now contracted
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: to the point of almost being neutral.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Being very stimulative for a very long time, and.
• 9:02
  Speaker 6: So you're left now with rates at a much more
• 9:06
  Speaker 6: restrictive rate without that extra kicker from the balance sheet.
• 9:11
  Speaker 6: I think I would kind of put a neutral balance
• 9:14
  Speaker 6: sheet at where we were in twenty nineteen, when we
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: had rates at about two percent flat ye'l curve at
• 9:19
  Speaker 6: two and the balance sheet was twenty percent of GDP,
• 9:22
  Speaker 6: the unemployment rate was three and a half, inflation was
• 9:24
  Speaker 6: one point six.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: We never get back to these being out of these
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: emergency contingencies where the FED is doing so much to
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: keep aflow.
• 9:31
  Speaker 6: I mean, We've got those great tools if we need them, Becky,
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: and I'm more than excited to use them if they
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: need to be used. But the point is we go
• 9:39
  Speaker 6: back to twenty nineteen. I don't want to go back
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: to two thousand and eight because the structure of the
• 9:43
  Speaker 6: market's changed so much. That was a neutral place. There
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: were no rate hikes, no rate cuts, priced in, we
• 9:49
  Speaker 6: were sitting at a two percent y'll curve flat. We
• 9:52
  Speaker 6: had a balance sheet of twenty percent of GDP.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: No QE, no QT.
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: It was about as neutral as it again, with the
• 9:58
  Speaker 6: Fed at its mandate, full employed a minute three and
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: a half and price stability at inflation under one.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: That's a good spot. That's the place we should be
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: looking to get back to.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: All right, So he talks a good talk. I'm not
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: sure that this is the guy for the Fed, but
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: you know, there's some interesting things going on within the administration.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: We'll see if this plays into it. Is he going
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: to be a yes man for Trump? I think that's
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: the question everybody's going to be asking. We need some
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: sort of distance, I think from the administration, but at
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: the same time, we do need less distance on reality,
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: which I believe is what's happening right now, and that
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: is jobs, real estate, and now what could be economic
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: conditions around many of the companies that are flowing in.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: And what does that all mean, Well, it means outflows,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: outflows coming out of crypto, including the two biggest spot
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: ETFs out there, and that includes ethereum and Bitcoin five
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three million out of bitcoins ETF in
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: a single day, four hundred and twenty nine million from ETFs.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: This is the second largest ever on that This is
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: not good for overall markets. That will continue to price
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: suppress I think in general, and continues to hold us
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: in a position where we will not recover until we
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: get some clarity. Now, it might not be the good
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: clarity we're thinking in terms of rake up, but it
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: may be at least clarity in the markets. I think
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: that's how the market is playing it right now. We
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: could see a flur of bitcoin and crypto mutual funds
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: launch over some of these four oh one k plans,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: given that the ETFs generally don't work inside those plans.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: That is one thing that Eric is right on that
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: may also fuel some more speculation on market growth because
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: this is really boiling down to three areas now. One
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: of course, is the dats, the digital asset companies that
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: and treasuries that we're seeing already developed on both platforms
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: and many others. Then, of course you have the situation
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: of the four oh one K and crypto being held
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: directly in those and then now if we start to
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: see a flur of these mutual funds that get launched,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: that would be another area that will continue to go
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: row market position and if anything, at least awareness. Tom
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Lee hits on this and says, hey, we think eth
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: undergoing a minor correction is okay, the pullback to around
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: four K by midweek, that's where we are right now.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Pullbacks are healthy. We'll see are you buying the dip
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: right now? Is the question mark? Other things that are
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: happening right now is you've got another strategic ETH reserve
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: joining the ranks. Now they're coming in with another twenty
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: five hundred in their reserve. This is another four mil.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if this is a good sign
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: or not, because I'm still concerned that we may see
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of Johnny cum Lately's that are just going
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: to pile it and try to gain a little bit
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: of clearance on this. And that's a problem because many
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: of these companies in many cases are walking dead. So
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that they are, but many of these
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: companies have not been able to achieve success on Wall
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Street until they started becoming an eath treasury. Doesn't mean
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: they won't be Remember the spack craze, Remember all that
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: the spac Those were kind of like the reverse acquisitions,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: trying to bring companies public without going through the traditional IPO.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Institutional adoption is now accelerating. Two percent of ETH supply
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: is now held in digital asset treasury companies. This concerns
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: me a little bit with ETH because we've only had
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: dats for what ninety days, and we're at two percent,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: and it seems to be a competition like a who's
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: who and what are the smiths doing? And if that
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: is the case, you're going to continue to see ETH accumulation.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: And if we continue to see ETH going to an
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: all time high, that's only going to create more pressure
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: on centralization. A lot of these companies holding assets, so
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: that may not be looking good for ETH in the
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: next year.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: If you see a correlation.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: To the number of companies that can just come in
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: in a very short period of time, other things you
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: have to look at right there, Well, guess what else
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: is happening. Well, we've got a lot of teather being
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: minted right now on ethereum. The reason for that, my guess,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: is we're looking at people getting ready to fly into
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: the market with some of this liquidity that everybody's been
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: talking about but nobody has seen. So is that, you know,
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: ghost liquidity out there in the machine.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: We're going to find out very soon. Let's jump over
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: to the charts real quick. Bitcoin bounced off that low
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: right there at around one twelve eight.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: This is the area that I think a lot.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Of capitulation could end up Bitcoin. If I was buying
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: it right now, that would not be the play I
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: would go with. Again, not financial advice, but I'm still
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: looking at ethereum and a handful of all coins that
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: have been able to perform fairly well. If you look
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: at Eth right now, big bounce off of that four
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: thy seventy one range, hovering around forty two hundred, Eth
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: may be in a sideways action, I think here for
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: a bit. But if it does get closer again to
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: the four k, and if it breaks four k, of course,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: I think that's buying season on ethereum. Others that you
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: could course look at Slata also had a big correction
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: after it pulled right back down to one seventy six.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: One seventy was kind of my zone where I looking
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: then not reach it. The other one to keep an
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: eye on is Sweet, and this one, of course a
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: couple of times has started to dip below the three
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: p forty mark. This zone right here around three point
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: thirty and below would be interesting for me on Sweet,
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: mainly because that's one I'm invested in, so a little
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: bit deeper on that. Avalanche also had a nice correction.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: If you look at the amount of correction that Avalanche
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: came off of this top right here to where it
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: pulled back to, that is an eighteen percent correction right there,
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: and that's just going where we are today. If you
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: look at where it did come to, this may be
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: a good time for avas in terms of an acquisition point.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: If you like Avalanche holding.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Long term, this may be one of the laggards in
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: terms of performance behind Eath. Again, remember eth all time
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: high is the key. Before we start to see some
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: of these all coins moving, we will get back to
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: having our traders in evans coming on Friday. We'll give
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: you guys a full breakdown on that and many all coins.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: We'll also take a look at Evans' all coin portfolio
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: and see how it's doing. If you, guys don't know
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: what that is, then you need to be part of
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: the Diamond Circle.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Get in right now.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: It's a free group right here on PBN and easy
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: to join. Catch me out there on X at Paul Baron.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time right here on the Paul
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Baron Show.