Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 267: Late Freeze Risk in Early April: What to Watch and When with Gary Lezak

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267: Late Freeze Risk in Early April: What to Watch and When with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down the
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  weather pattern once again and everything that we are seeing in
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  this 11 week reoccurring LRC weather pattern for the year.
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  Gary is talking about our last freeze dates, some late freeze
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  dates that we could see in April, also a summer heat wave
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  when that is predicted to be and how we can continue to prepare
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  for that across cattle country. Before we hop into today's
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  episode with Gary, if you're watching on YouTube, make sure
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• 0:45
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  To all of you that are here, thank you for being here.
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  Thank you for being a dedicated listener and being here as we
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  continue to grow and evolve this podcast.
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  Without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Gary Liszak.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 1:05
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the update
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  shaping agriculture today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, good morning.
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  Welcome back to the podcast. How are you?
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  How is life in beautiful Colorado?
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  I hear you might be getting some moisture right now.
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  Even though it's not snow, we'll still take the moisture, right?
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  I'm definitely taking in a lot of moisture.
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  I'm drinking a lot of fluids I'm getting.
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  Very well hydrated. I'm getting ready for my
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  colonoscopy tomorrow so wish me luck.
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  The exciting things of adulting. Got to love it.
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  Oh, it's raining and it's raining outside.
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  So I think that's what you were alluding to.
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  So it's great to get a little rain.
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  It has been extremely dry and the mountains are getting some
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  snow, which is great. The thing is, this is all right
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  on schedule. We're in the part of the weather
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  better that's supposed to produce some snow in the
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  mountains and a little bit out in the plains.
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  But it's been a struggle for Nebraska and for Kansas, for our
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  Cattle USA region to get moisture.
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  But at least a little bit. It's happening this week.
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  Yeah, for sure. It's encouraging to get some
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  moisture on the ground, especially with the warmer
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  temperatures. Most of our ground isn't
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  completely frozen right now, so it's actually absorbing and it's
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  doing some good, which I think is always a concern when it
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  comes to winter moisture of, well, if the ground's frozen and
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  it, it's just the constant like mud freeze, mud freeze cycle.
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  But I think right now we're actually getting a little bit of
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  absorption into the ground, which is nice.
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  I walked to the office from the parking garage this morning
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  without a jacket on like 55° here in Kansas right now.
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  And so I'm trying to bask in it and enjoy it while I can,
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  because Lord knows that March is probably going to come around
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  and humble me real quick so. And March is going to come in
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  roaring like a lion. So hopefully it goes out like a
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  lamb. But I'm concerned, which we'll
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  talk about today. But yeah, it's, it's great.
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  And what a beautiful stretch of weather we're having right now.
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  But there's more cold fronts coming.
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  Remember, we're still in the same pattern.
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  The weather pattern is cycling is driven by this recurring
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  atmospheric cycle that we talked about the LRC.
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  And we use it to identify risk windows weeks do months in
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  advance, not just three to seven days.
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  So as you learn more, a lot of you have been learning more in
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  the past year that you can start preparing weeks ahead, months
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  ahead for some of these big temperature swings that are
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  expected, one of which Lauren is due in the first half of April.
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  And that's a time where the winter wheat maybe maybe in, you
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  know, and so and starting to come out and the last thing you
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  need is a hard freeze. A cold April was an April cold
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  spell could be a big problem. So I'm concerned for Kansas,
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  Nebraska, you know, region for a late freeze risk.
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  I just looked at the model. It'll be in my weather
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  Intelligence Report today from Weather 2020.
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  And it does look like there's going to be a potential for some
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  for a freeze around 25° or so possible.
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  The model shows, this is the LRC model.
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  It does show it in the 20s on April 5th to 15th in that range.
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  So that's, that's not a late freeze, but it'd be a late hard
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  freeze. So it's something to keep in
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  mind. I'm not sure how that will
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  impact your area, but that is in the LRC model forecast.
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  Hopefully we can rule that out. Yeah, for sure.
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  Definitely a concern as we go into it, those spring months and
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  everything like that. Gary, when we're looking at this
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  weather pattern, can you kind of walk us through the cycle that
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  we are seeing within this weather pattern and kind of like
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  the different weeks in the dry and blue sky and like all of
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  those things that kind of we're talking about in last year's
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  pattern, What are kind of our reoccurring themes that we're
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  seeing in this year's pattern? Yeah.
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  You know, this year we we have this cold phase of the pattern
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  that has really impacted the eastern United States.
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  They had a relentlessly cold winter.
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  If you happen to live in western Kansas, western Nebraska or
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  Colorado, it has not been a cold winter.
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  It's been a real mild winter, but with a lack of precipitation
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  that the cycling pattern is going to continue.
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  So the colder air, we'll make it back down into the upper part of
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  the plains, North Dakota, South Dakota extending down to the
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  Great Lakes again. And with that April cold spell,
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  as I talked about. And then in between, there's the
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  storm systems that come into the western United States.
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  And one of those periods is going to be early to mid March
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  where storms drop into the western United States.
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  That'll allow a warm up over the plains and the east.
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  And then that'll go by. And then the late March to
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  mid-april is when the cold part of the pattern comes in.
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  And that's when we might get that one hard freeze or two hard
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  freezes could be impacting ones. And then it'll go back to the
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  cycle again where one more period of rain hits the West
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  Coast, the troughs come in, and that allows it to warm up.
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  So that's the cycle that we're in at this moment.
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  And of course, as we go into summer, then we have a big risk
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  window that is developing as we've talked about with our
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  forecast for a major heat wave late Midsummer, really late
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  July, early to mid August is where it's centered right now.
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  And that could be instead of it being 92°, it'd be 102 degrees.
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  So things like that could happen in that time frame.
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  Yeah, definitely something that we need to continue to keep our
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  eyes on as we're looking out into the weather pattern for the
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  rest of the year. Gary, what are kind of your
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  thoughts on severe weather for the rest of the year?
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  Any kind of takes or insights on those as we go into spring in a
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  few months? Yeah, severe weather is
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  interesting if you're new to the LRC.
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  Last year we had a cycle that was close to six weeks long, 41
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  days every six weeks. We had severe weather on
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  schedule predicted by weather 2020 to happen in our windows.
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  So there were 9 cycles last year and all nine produced tornadoes
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  in certain parts of the patterns.
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  The pattern cycling is a right now.
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  This year I've identified 5 area 5 windows for severe weather.
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  Haven't put down exactly where they're going to return.
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  However, I spoke at the National Storm Chaser Summit here in
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  Westminster, Co just a couple weeks ago and I told them March
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  16th to March 25th and I showed the risk area for severe
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  thunderstorms. And then that part of the
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  pattern returns late May and early June and it is likely to
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  produce significant severe weather with tornadoes.
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  So exactly where I'm going to have that ready here in a couple
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  weeks. That's just one part of the
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  pattern that cycles through every 11 weeks.
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  Remember, last year was six weeks long.
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  This year is ridiculously long. The ties for the longest cycle
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  we've ever had 11 weeks. And you know what's weird,
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  Lauren? I know this is getting real
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  scientific and and and deep, but think about 11 weeks, OK.
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  The last time there was an 11 week cycle was 2004, 2005 and so
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  in 2004, 2005, that was the year Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana.
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  It was a major disaster. Major hurricane Rita hit Texas
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  and it was also about a 75 to 80 day cycle that year, 78 days
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  before Katrina in late August, early June, there was trouble to
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  storm Arlene and 7678 days before major hurricane Rita was
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  Hurricane Dennis in the Gulf of Mexico.
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  So my point is the 2004, 2005 season is the last time Kansas
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  City, we had a really mild winter with very little impacts
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  from snow. And it's happened before.
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  I mean, 2012 was really ridiculously bad, but in 2000
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  and four, 2005, that was also a long cycle.
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  So we might be looking at an interesting hurricane season
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  just based on that. I got to do some more analysis,
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  but it's fascinating. Yeah, definitely something to
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  keep our eye on because as we saw last year and in previous
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  years, a interesting hurricane season for the South provides an
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  interesting weather pattern season for us in the Midwest as
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  those storm systems continue to move through the United States
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  and different nuances that occur there.
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  So Gary, as we're looking into the rest of winter, what are
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  kind of your thoughts? We're over halfway through
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  February now, right? Yeah, February 17th is when
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  we're. Required.
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  Time is flying by. Absolutely flying by.
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  I, I know, I, I don't understand it.
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  I feel like the days are long, but the weeks are short and
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  that's just the continuous kind of pattern that we live in, in
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  our lives. But what are your thoughts as we
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  start to round out winter, winter, your thoughts on kind
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  of, we already kind of mentioned some last freeze dates,
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  potential late freeze dates in April.
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  But when do you kind of anticipate or expect across the
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  United States for winter to start calming down a little bit
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  and that's to start getting on spring weather?
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  It's going to not seem like it's doing so in some spots because
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  the Northeast has been relentless on winter.
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  It'll warm up. They're warming up now, so
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  that's good, but they're going to get some more cold fronts.
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  These ups and downs will continue, but the good news is
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  that the weather pattern goes into spring and the days get
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  longer and the chance of Arctic outbreaks usually end by late
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  March. Yes, a cold front is going to
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  come through in that first half of April.
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  That's going to drop us into the mid 20s in spots for a hard
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  freeze, but the the winter as we know it will be gone and at
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  least they'll be in the 50s and 60s and 70s more consistently.
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  That's coming. That happens every year, but the
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  ups and downs are timed out by the LRC and so everything's
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  still right on schedule. We have a month and a half left.
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  I'm just going to keep on reminding myself that that I can
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  persevere for another month and a half, walking to the office in
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  my gloves and coat. Today was not bad at.
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  All No, it wasn't. Today was beautiful.
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  Today was absolutely gorgeous. But Gary, I live in Kansas.
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  I'm ready for it to be 5° tomorrow because Kansas is
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  bipolar as anything you could possibly ask for.
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  So I mean, even though the weather doesn't say it's going
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  to be 5° tomorrow, heck, I'm ready for it.
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  I know. And Speaking of warmer weather,
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  you know heat rest planning begins early for Cattle USA and
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  the region. So you can start planning right
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  now for that early August major heat wave.
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  But the spring patterns often foreshadow summer, the summer
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  heat waves, OK. So for example, in mid-May,
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  about 11 weeks before the major heat wave is expected, we're
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  going to look at a risk window mid to late May for a possible
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  warming up and drying out period.
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  If that happens, that could compound and make it even worse
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  during the summer. So just now monitoring this as
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  we go through it, going going through the whole thing,
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  everything's lined up. While the risk isn't just about
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  what happens, about knowing when it's going to happen, when the
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  stress of the heat is going to affect the cattle, OK, So you
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  can plan accordingly. If it gets really hot and humid,
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  some of the cattle are going to get lost, OK?
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  Because that's how bad it could be in Midsummer.
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  So start thinking about planning for that the best you can now,
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  and maybe we can rule it out. I don't think we're going to
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  rule it out. I think it's going to happen
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  based on what we've seen. And even as cold as it's been in
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  the east, there's this thing called the Anchor Ridge, the
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  reason why Colorado has had their lowest snow totals ever as
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  of now. And it's going to be one of the
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  bottom 10 years for sure, and maybe the lowest.
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  But there's signs that what I'm telling you is heading his way
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  is going to head this way. So plan now, what are those
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  plans? You're, you're the cattle
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  farmer. You're you're, you know what
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  this heat may mean, you've experienced in the past couple
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  decades when it does happen, but this could be a significant 1.
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  So just just know. Yeah, definitely something to
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  keep our eyes on as we start to prep for summer.
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  Gary, I'm going to be honest, we're we're talking about it
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  getting warmer and winter being gone.
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  And don't get me wrong, I'm I'm ready for winter to be out of
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  here, ready for March to go out like a lamb.
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  And it should just be nice and springy for a while, but I'm not
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  ready for it to be 102 yet either.
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  So like, can we talk about just summer being a really mild
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  summer and it's just going to be.
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  Beautiful and. In the 60s instead like why
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  can't you bring that good news to me I.
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  Will try but I don't think I can do that so we just need to
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  prepare. So how are you doing?
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  I understand you're teaching a class.
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  I am I am teaching a class at K state this semester, so I'm in
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  the business building on Tuesdays and Thursdays right now
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  teaching some college students. So it's been an interesting
• 15:14
  semester we're. About great Has it been
• 15:17
  stressful? You're enjoying it.
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  It has been a learning experience.
• 15:21
  It has been a learning experience for sure.
• 15:23
  I'm a big believer in growing outside of your comfort zone.
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  And if you're not uncomfortable, you're not growing.
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  And this was an opportunity offered to me by the university
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  to come in as an adjunct this semester and do some teaching.
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  And I was like, you know what, There's no better time to say
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  yes than right now. And so it has been a learning
• 15:41
  experience to say the least. I have enjoyed it.
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  It has been great. It is also been challenging,
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  we'll put it that way. Hey, so everything in life is a
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  growing experience, so you'll get through it.
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  That sounds fantastic. And and you'll learn.
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  You'll learn. And have you made any sourdough
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  lately? I haven't.
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  My husband is actually almost out of his sourdough.
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  So it is time for the sourdough to come out of hibernation and
• 16:10
  to get baking again because I've been making it in bulk Gary.
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  So I've been making like 6 loaves at a time and then
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  throwing the rest in the freezer so I don't have to make it every
• 16:19
  week because it's labor intensive.
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  I tell you what. So today on my ever ending To Do
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  List is to bring the sourdough out of hibernation.
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  And I also make our own Greek yogurt as well because I'm
• 16:30
  crazy, so I have that on my To Do List today too.
• 16:34
  We have to stop because all I can eat today is chicken broth,
• 16:38
  plain and water and chicken. More chicken broth and then
• 16:42
  maybe. Some jello in there.
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  I don't even think. I think I can have jello.
• 16:48
  Yeah, but I didn't make any. I'm stupid.
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  All I have is chicken broth. But in 24 hours I'll be able to
• 16:55
  eat whatever I want and I can't wait.
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  You can absolutely pig out here in less than 24 hours now, Gary.
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  It is those, whatever meal you are ready for after your
• 17:09
  operation, it is it is ready for you.
• 17:12
  It is calling your name. Less than 24 hours, hopefully
• 17:15
  it's clear and everything's good.
• 17:17
  Maybe a couple of polyps, you never know.
• 17:18
  But I I don't have any symptoms, so there's no reason there's
• 17:22
  anything in there. I guess we'll find out.
• 17:24
  Yes, yes, absolutely. Well, prayers and thoughts are
• 17:27
  with you as always. And prayers and thoughts with
• 17:29
  Andy having to be up with you at 6:30 in the morning tomorrow to
• 17:34
  go with you. At 6:00, I'm going to go.
• 17:36
  We have to go now. I mean, you're not the one that
• 17:40
  has to go through this procedure.
• 17:43
  Yes, he does get to wait in the waiting room with his coffee and
• 17:45
  his food at 6:00 in the morning and you just get to sit there
• 17:49
  and wallow. But it'll be great.
• 17:52
  It's get it done, get it off the list and move on.
• 17:55
  And your meal is waiting for you.
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  Unless. One last thing, one last thing.
• 18:00
  I can't wait. But one last thing is this
• 18:02
  weekend, you know, I'm not sure when this is going to air, but
• 18:05
  this weekend there's a chance of snow Saturday in Kansas City.
• 18:09
  And I had put a risk window 5th to the 20th, that's the 21st.
• 18:13
  Everything moved by about four or five days.
• 18:15
  It's literally the storm we predicted that could produce
• 18:18
  snow. So let's just see what happens.
• 18:20
  A little bit of snow, not a major storm, but a little bit of
• 18:23
  snow across Kansas could spread across all the way to Kansas
• 18:26
  City this weekend. Very important to keep our eyes
• 18:31
  on that. And this episode is actually
• 18:33
  going out tomorrow, Gary. So perfect timing for everyone
• 18:37
  to prepare for that a little bit.
• 18:38
  Enjoy the little. If you're in Kansas, enjoy the
• 18:41
  little heat wave we're getting today with the 50s and 60s.
• 18:44
  Go out and bask in it. I know it's a little windy, but
• 18:47
  go out and enjoy the weather and just enjoy it while you can
• 18:50
  before it gets frigidly cold again.
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  So as it does, well, Gary, as always, thank you for your time
• 18:55
  today. Thank you for coming on and
• 18:57
  giving all of your insight and your knowledge to us across the
• 19:00
  Midwest, across the country and cattle regions, and for all of
• 19:04
  us as producers out there. This weather insight is so
• 19:07
  valuable to us, especially as we go into the coming months to
• 19:10
  continue to prepare. To all of our listeners out
• 19:13
  there, everything that Gary talked about today is going to
• 19:14
  be linked down in the show notes as well.
• 19:16
  If you want to take some time to learn more about the LRC, the
• 19:19
  reoccurring weather pattern that we're seeing this year, or
• 19:22
  anything like that, Gary sub stack is down below.
• 19:24
  Or just any other links where you can learn more about this
• 19:27
  predictive weather model that Gary is here talking about right
• 19:31
  now? So thank you for listening to
• 19:33
  another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
• 19:35
  Gary, as always, thank you for your time.
• 19:36
  And to all of you listeners. We will see you all next time on
• 19:39
  another episode. Have a good one y'all.