2026-08-31 · Oil Shock Meets a Hawkish Fed
A weekend strike in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil sharply higher and handed an already-hawkish Fed a fresh inflation argument, and for the first time in this dataset more stocks now sit in a technical downtrend than an uptrend.
The Signal
Stocks gave up modest ground Monday after a weekend US strike on Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, the first acknowledged strike there since late July, drew a retaliation and sent oil sharply higher. The S&P and Nasdaq slipped, the Dow fell harder, and energy was the only part of the market that worked. Volatility ticked up but stayed low, and…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.