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The Cardinals Margin For Error is Very Slim · Kenny Wallace Media

• 0:00
  What's up, everybody? Charlie Marlow here with a quick
• 0:02
  Saint Louis Cardinals vibe? Check.
• 0:05
  As the kids call it. A vibe check.
• 0:07
  What are your vibes like? What are you thinking about the
• 0:10
  Cardinals as we stand here? I'm sitting but March 11th,
• 0:15
  about 2 1/2 weeks or so, right? If my math is correct from
• 0:20
  Opening Day, I'm not going to focus a ton on on what's going
• 0:24
  on on the field right now. You might say, Charlie, why?
• 0:28
  Well look, drawing from some of these spring training games and
• 0:32
  the box scores and I'll be real with you.
• 0:34
  I haven't, I haven't watched a ton of the games on TV.
• 0:36
  But I think what's more interesting and important is the
• 0:40
  injuries and the accumulation of injuries.
• 0:44
  So I want to, I want to hear from you guys what do you think
• 0:48
  specifically? So we're talking obviously Sonny
• 0:51
  Gray, Tommy Edmond and also Lars new bar.
• 0:56
  So let's kind of go in backwards order.
• 0:59
  We've talked a lot about Sunny Gray already.
• 1:02
  So large new bar we got what two rib fractures could potentially
• 1:07
  still be ready for opening day. We'll see.
• 1:11
  Doesn't sound like something that will be crazy long, but who
• 1:15
  knows anytime you hear rib fracture like what the dude's
• 1:18
  going to be back that quick. So.
• 1:20
  So we'll see if he's ready for opening day.
• 1:22
  Let's just say it takes him a week or so.
• 1:26
  Tommy Edmond, obviously the guy who's supposed to be your
• 1:30
  starting center fielder and it sure doesn't seem like Tommy
• 1:34
  Edmond is, is anywhere near ready for opening Day.
• 1:38
  And then you have Sonny Gray where you have the right
• 1:41
  hamstring strain. And the last news I saw was was
• 1:48
  good where he shut it down for a couple days already throwing I
• 1:53
  think I saw from 120 feet doing his agility drills with no issue
• 1:58
  to me still. So my thing with Sonny Gray is
• 2:02
  it's it's not so much I'm worried right now although look
• 2:06
  even if he misses 123 starts kind of the the whole premise
• 2:10
  for making this video is I think I think the reason I'm concerned
• 2:15
  and I'm not I'm not overly concerned but I think this
• 2:18
  Cardinals team has a very slim margin of error to make the
• 2:23
  playoffs. And that's why I think when you
• 2:25
  add up all these injuries like I I did a video the other day with
• 2:30
  Brendan Schaeffer and I titled it could the Sonny Gray injury
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  wreck the Cardinals season And I I didn't think that was
• 2:38
  hyperbole for this reason. How many stars do you think
• 2:43
  Sonny Gray can miss and the Cardinals still make the
• 2:46
  playoffs. And this is just obviously we're
• 2:49
  just we're just kind of we're looking at odds and all that.
• 2:52
  But I'm saying, isn't it fair to say the 2024 Saint Louis
• 2:56
  Cardinals probably don't make the playoffs if Sonny Gray
• 3:00
  misses ten starts? I would say that what if it's
• 3:04
  six or seven and and and that's where if you look at the history
• 3:08
  of Sonny Gray with this injury, it usually creeps back in.
• 3:12
  So you can say, yeah, it's not that much right now.
• 3:15
  It was good news. Let's just say he misses one to
• 3:17
  three starts. I think that's fair to say
• 3:19
  beginning of the season. Well I'm.
• 3:21
  I'm now kind of baking in that this thing's going to come back
• 3:24
  and creep its way in at another point in the season.
• 3:27
  This is, this is my opinion. You don't have to agree, but he
• 3:30
  probably hits the IL again with this.
• 3:33
  And now are you talking about cumulatively missing what, 5-6,
• 3:38
  seven starts, whatever it is? I I think that's a fair
• 3:41
  prognosis from his history with this particular injury.
• 3:45
  And so then add in, let's say Newbar misses a month, maybe he
• 3:49
  doesn't. Tommy Edmond, you're wondering,
• 3:51
  man, I mean, is he going to be, is he going to be compromised
• 3:56
  for a long period of time? But I I think my, my overall
• 4:00
  point is this Cardinals team is not good enough to have a bunch
• 4:06
  of these where you just start just injuries here and there.
• 4:10
  And by the way, the season hasn't even started yet.
• 4:11
  There's going to be more injuries when the season starts,
• 4:14
  you know that. But if every little injury just
• 4:17
  maybe picks off a half win or a win, whatever it is.
• 4:21
  Remember Pakoda, which isn't the be all end all.
• 4:24
  But they said the Cardinals were about 85 wins, and I think the
• 4:28
  Cubs were at 80 before they signed Bellinger.
• 4:30
  So whatever. Just if you're in that 85 win
• 4:35
  territory, which I think is fair, whatever number you want
• 4:38
  to throw out there, 8382848586, whatever it is, you're still
• 4:43
  really on the cusp of of getting into the playoffs but also not
• 4:47
  not making the playoffs. So that's why I I don't think
• 4:50
  it's hyperbole to say just every piece of bad news you get for
• 4:55
  the Cardinals, you just add them all up.
• 4:58
  And if each one just chips away, 1/2 win here, a win there.
• 5:04
  All of a sudden, look the the Cardinals, Couldn't you see a
• 5:09
  scenario where the Cardinals playoff hopes it's not sealed
• 5:13
  till the final week of the season?
• 5:15
  Don't you think that's pretty fair?
• 5:17
  I'm not saying it's going to happen like that 100%, but
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  couldn't you foresee a situation where the Cardinals are final
• 5:24
  week of the season with a shot to make it, but also could be
• 5:28
  left out in the final week? That's where I think every
• 5:31
  single win loss, every single little injury can creep its way
• 5:36
  up and potentially just kind of nick off the Cardinals chances
• 5:40
  of making the postseason. So I'm not overly concerned the
• 5:44
  season hasn't even freaking started yet.
• 5:48
  Here's here's where I'll give you some positive news.
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  And I've said this a million times.
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  I don't think people are focusing enough on this.
• 5:56
  I think, I think there's this, this industry thought that the
• 6:00
  Cardinals, they have to make this huge jump from 71 wins to
• 6:04
  whatever it is 8586, let's just say like a 15 win jump.
• 6:09
  That's not the way I look at the Cardinals at all.
• 6:12
  And here's why I don't think the 2023 Cardinals were that bad of
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  a team. When I say I say there weren't a
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  71 bad win team and here's why. Now they're bad.
• 6:24
  Don't get me wrong, the Cardinals at the trade deadline
• 6:27
  afterwards, they didn't try to win.
• 6:30
  And that's the way you should do it when you're trying to get a
• 6:32
  draft pick. They they fueled it a lot of
• 6:35
  four a guys. OK, you shouldn't try to win.
• 6:37
  Either go for it or tank. I'm glad the Cardinals did that.
• 6:41
  Also, I've said this a billion times.
• 6:44
  It's true. Adam Wainwright, who got 20
• 6:47
  something starts last year, he wouldn't have got probably more
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  than five starts, whatever it is, if the Cardinals weren't
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  terrible and if he wasn't chasing 200 wins.
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  He was historically one of the worst pitchers in baseball
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  history. For a guy that got 20, I think
• 7:03
  it was 21 starts. Whatever it was, if you just
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  replace that with a league average guy or even somebody
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  like like let's say Zach Thompson, who gives you 5 inning
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  starts, but they're competitive to a 4 1/2 ERA and you win 50%
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  of those games, that's a huge jump in wins.
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  It's like a seven win jump right there.
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  So I do think we're acting like, oh, the Cardinals have to make
• 7:27
  this huge jump. Everything went wrong for the
• 7:30
  Cardinals last year. Everything went wrong.
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  I don't look at it as you have to make a 15 win jump.
• 7:35
  I look at it as like you have to make a 7-8 win jump to me if you
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  didn't start wayno. Last year if if you were
• 7:44
  fielding a competitive team in the second in the in the last
• 7:48
  two months of the year after trade deadline Cardinals.
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  They're not. They're not going to win only 71
• 7:52
  games. They probably win what, 7778?
• 7:56
  And and remember also this is after trading away Flaherty
• 8:00
  Montgomery. I know Deyoung wasn't great, but
• 8:03
  who else? Chris Stratton?
• 8:05
  Jordan Hicks. OK, that's five guys.
• 8:09
  I don't know if I missed anybody but but that's why they lost 91
• 8:13
  games. I'm not saying they're good at
• 8:14
  all. I'm not saying that, but if
• 8:17
  things could have went a little better here and there, they try
• 8:19
  to win. They don't trade those guys.
• 8:21
  You basically bounce Wayne out of the starting rotation.
• 8:23
  You're probably pushing close to a 500 team and everything went
• 8:27
  wrong early in the season. So that's why I'm not as down on
• 8:31
  this team as as other people are, because the 71 wins I think
• 8:36
  is, is a little bit misleading. That being said, I'll finish
• 8:40
  this video. It'll be quick here, but I'll
• 8:42
  finish it where I started with the with.
• 8:46
  Look, this team though, the margin for error is slim, so I
• 8:51
  don't think they're going to be that much better than 8586 wins,
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  whatever it is. So that's where every single one
• 8:56
  of these injuries does make a difference for the Cardinals.
• 9:00
  What do you guys think? Comment, like, subscribe, Let me
• 9:02
  know, give me your Cardinals vibe?
• 9:04
  Check. And by the way, I have my
• 9:06
  computer out here because I want to give a shout out to the
• 9:08
  members on the channel, which I don't do that enough.
• 9:11
  You don't have to be a member, but we really appreciate all the
• 9:13
  members. So here we go.
• 9:15
  We got the premium members of course Ken.
• 9:17
  Feeling Ken what a feeling and AG2Z who lives in the
• 9:22
  Netherlands. G2 Z lives in the Netherlands.
• 9:25
  I do a comment with all you guys usually here and there like them
• 9:28
  and I jump in the comments when I can.
• 9:30
  And then also we have our medium members, Mother Goose, My Guy
• 9:34
  and Brian Canfield, the 2nd. And then our basic members.
• 9:38
  Let's go Bird, Chatter, Baseball, Drew P Balls, Crabby
• 9:41
  Joe, Adam Nelson, Sam. I am Charles Wagner, Michael
• 9:46
  Hawkins, SMFR, The Pod, the Podcast, My Guy, Stevie, Mother
• 9:52
  Reed, and also Bren Gillespie. Our original member, Bren
• 9:56
  Gillespie has been a member for 19 months on the channel.
• 10:01
  How about that? All right, I'm going to shut up.
• 10:04
  And by the way, I know I had a terrible I need to get a new
• 10:07
  razor. Razor is not something you
• 10:09
  should buy cheap. I did that and I have terrible
• 10:11
  razor burn. You should just always spend a
• 10:12
  little more for a razor. But thanks guys.
• 10:16
  I know I've been kind of slacking on the videos.
• 10:18
  I've been balls to the wall doing the NASCAR channel with
• 10:21
  Kenny Wallace. I've been spending almost all my
• 10:23
  time on that. But once the Cardinals, you
• 10:25
  know, anytime there's news or with the season starting, we'll
• 10:29
  do a ton more videos on the Cardinals.
• 10:32
  I know I've been bad. I'm going to try to be better.
• 10:34
  All right, guys, love you. Thanks for watching.
• 10:36
  Thanks for commenting, liking, subscribing, being a member and
• 10:39
  all that. Let me know.
• 10:41
  Drop in the comments. Your vibe?
• 10:42
  Check. Positive.
• 10:44
  Negative in the middle. What do you think?
• 10:45
  All right, have a great week, everybody.
• 10:47
  See ya.