Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 64: 5/5 The Weather Pattern Just Reset—Here’s What That Means with Gary Lezak

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64: 5/5 The Weather Pattern Just Reset—Here’s What That Means with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
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  Happy Monday everyone. Today we are again bringing you
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  you guys, your weekly weather report with Gary Lezak and the
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  weather 2020 team. So today we we actually like
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  pretty, we stay on track today and we talk what we're seeing
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  this summer. We talk drought patterns.
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  We talk Gary's team just put out their hurricane press release
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  last week. So we talk that we talk wet
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  trends, dry trends, all the things honestly and we are just
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  absolutely on one and bringing the energy to you guys on this
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  Monday morning. So without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and get into the episode with Gary and chat what we're
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  seeing in the weather this week. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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  podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
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  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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  today. I'm your host Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, happy Friday.
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  Welcome back to another episode of the podcast.
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  What's happening in life? What we talked last week.
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  But I feel like it's I've lived a few 100 lives maybe in the
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  past week. So it feels like it's been a
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  little bit longer than a week. But how's life?
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  How are you? It's doing going great.
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  I've been on KSHB. I'm getting up at 3:00 in the
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  morning. I don't know if you saw my
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  social media post, but I Rainbow is sitting there at 3:00 in the
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  morning. She's sitting next to me.
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  She's like, imagine a dog doing that.
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  I go, it's 3:00 AM and Sunny is still asleep.
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  But anyway, I've been doing all that.
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  I think I'm wearing my Super Bowl championship shirt.
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  I love it. President Mahomes, you know, I'm
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  just over the Chiefs Super Bowl loss.
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  Just so everyone knows, it's taking me to see January,
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  February, March, April. They save me four months and I
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  think I'm over the loss. And so now it's on to next year.
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  So so. I guess.
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  Yeah, so and and of course I've been studying the weather.
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  The weather pattern is right on schedule.
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  I just looked today before our meeting.
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  We are in now lowering the 6th cycle of this year's pattern,
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  OK. It is just started in the last
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  couple days. So the pattern, the weather
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  pattern that we are all experiencing began on October
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  5th, 6th or 7th. If you're new to this, and I'm
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  still new to this, even though I've been doing over 40 years.
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  OK, the sunsets at the North Pole on September 23rd, it's
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  twilight there for a dozen days. Here it's twilight for an hour.
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  But at the North Pole, the sun's setting forever.
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  It finally goes below the horizon and it takes 12 days for
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  it to finally turn dark. That is a tremendous energy
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  transfer that happens at that point from October prior for
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  September 23rd to October 5th and then culminates when it goes
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  dark and that's when the LRC, the cycling weather pattern
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  begins at day one. This year's patterns about 41
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  days long, close to six weeks, which is 42 days.
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  OK, so 41 is the average. October 5th.
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  You do add in 41 days, you'll see that the first week of May
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  is cycle 6. And we I lined up it's like a
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  1234 and five in that river here above us showing at 18,000 feet
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  up. And I was able to just last
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  night line it all up. I can clearly see it.
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  I can showcase it. I'll probably show it next week.
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  But the patterns right on schedule.
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  So with all that said, the drought conditions from North
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  Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas in the winter, weed areas
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  toward as you move east towards the Corn Belt and the Big Corn
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  Belt from Iowa, Missouri, southern Minnesota, eastern
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  parts of the plains into Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, the
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  drought has been shrinking as we predicted.
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  There are still pockets that are dry, and they're consistently
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  dry. Many areas have gotten just
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  enough rain and it was timed right.
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  So a lot of people got their crops planted in the last few
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  weeks and we had timely rainfall.
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  So it's good. Going forward, it's looking
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  bullish for corn to have a bumper crop in many areas, but
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  there are pockets that are still concerned and there's still a
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  couple things that can go wrong. What can go wrong?
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  So Lauren, that's my opening statement.
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  Is that making sense? Yes, it absolutely is 1000%.
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  It's so cool to see things come back around.
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  And you say 2 weeks ago that like, hey, this is what we're
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  going to see is the cycle's about to start over.
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  And then here we are, the cycle starting over.
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  We're in, we're in Cycle 6 now and just what we're seeing.
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  Can you elaborate a little bit more on that last statement that
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  you just made? Yeah, so.
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  So what can go wrong? If you've been following along
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  this whole time and you can see how to do so on your screen,
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  you'd see how to get our products.
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  I do a weather Intelligence Report every Tuesday and during
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  the hurricane season I'll be doing a Tuesday update and as
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  weekend hurricane update here soon.
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  More than that in a second. We, we've been consistent
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  talking about a phase one part of the pattern and a phase
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  two-part of the pattern. Phase one there were storms drop
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  into the western part of the country, spin around, come out
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  into the plains, produce more widespread rain than phase two.
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  And Phase 2, they come in across Montana and North Dakota, drop
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  down to the Great Lakes and the Corn Belt is mostly drier
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  mostly, although in June that could be wetter because
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  sometimes thunderstorm complexes start moving, the moisture gets
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  a little bit higher up and they can come, come in.
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  So we are now going into the drier part of the patterns and
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  don't be shocked in the next two weeks it dries out in many
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  areas. Hopefully you got your your
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  crops planted already. And then late into June is when
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  we go back in to the phase one part of the pattern.
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  It could be as early as May 20th, May 25th.
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  But right around then in that last, it's only 2 1/2 weeks from
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  now we'll go back into phase one.
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  And I'm a forecasting the LRC model has been forecasting a
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  rather wet ending to the season before summer gets here.
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  So what can go wrong? There could be blocking that's
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  forming now that persists that lowers those rain totals.
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  Or it could be fine and rain a lot in late May through mid
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  June. And then summer settles in.
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  We go back into phase two of the pattern and just as summer
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  settles in, it gets hot and a little heat wave forms and all
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  of a sudden you have drought stress in some areas that might
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  have gotten missed or not as much rain.
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  So there's things that can go wrong and, and we'll be
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  monitoring them. When will there be heat waves?
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  How long will they be lasting? Is there a chance of a major
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  heat wave that lasts longer than 7 days and really gets hot and
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  causes problems? These are also possibilities.
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  And I still haven't done a complete analysis of the whole
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  summer. And I'm going to do that very
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  soon, either next week or the week after, probably the week
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  after and, and, and get to get to some of those possible
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  problems for the Corn Belt. But right now it's been pretty
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  good in most areas. Yeah.
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  Can you talk a little bit about wet levels, what we're seeing
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  there? Are we still thinking that we're
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  at some high risk for some potential over moisture this
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  summer and late spring that we're maybe going to see on some
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  of the eastern sides? The latest trend has been
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  Oklahoma, southern Missouri, eastern Missouri into Illinois
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  and Indiana, southern parts of those states.
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  They've been in the band of all this heavy rain, 10121415 inches
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  of rain and some spots down there.
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  And then whenever you see a rain band like that just north of it,
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  it's called a rain shadow. And and there has been a rain
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  shadow. Western Kansas, western Nebraska
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  with a storm approaching has a chance for some rain coming in,
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  but it may still go just South of there in the next 5 days.
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  And then we're going into that drier part of the pattern.
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  But that's been the trend, Lauren.
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  Perfect, amazing, amazing. As far as hurricane season goes,
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  what do you see in there? Well, we put our press release
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  out if you I just put it on social media, I should probably
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  send you a copy. But search for weather 2020
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  hurricane season press release and make sure it's this year's.
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  You'll see our forecast is for a big hurricane season, 20 named
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  storms. This year, 17 to 23 is our
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  forecast. Weather 2020 has been the number
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  one hurricane forecaster in the world for the past three years,
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  as shown by data from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center
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  that tracks these things. I haven't looked at everyone
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  else's numbers, but I'm sure we're going to come up higher
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  than most this year. And so I'm expecting it to be
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  active and remember what the LRC is able to do.
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  It lets us know when and where these systems are going to
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  happen. Back in November we had
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  Hurricane Raphael that was in the Gulf of Mexico around
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  November 8th or 9th. So when that part of the pattern
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  returns and cycles through in mid August, around August 22nd,
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  the probability of a hurricane developing right in the middle
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  of the Gulf of Mexico and a strong one is pretty high before
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  August 22nd. Remember it's a 41 day cycle.
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  So we'll look 41 days before August 22nd or around July 11th,
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  July 12th, and we'll also look at the beginning of June, 41
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  days before that. We might see a hint there might
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  be a weak tropical storm in June that's related to that storm and
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  if there is one that increases the probability of a major
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  hurricane. So we'll be looking in early
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  June for that and more on that coming up at.
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  It's all fascinating. It's all related to the LRC.
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  Yes. And I know when Gary and I were
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  first discussing this podcast and getting to know one another,
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  Gary showed me the predictions in comparison to other
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  prediction platforms out there and everything like that.
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  And it is amazing to see how accurate weather 2020 was in the
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  past hurricane prediction season just in comparison to all of the
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  competitors out there. How you guys were hitting the
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  nail on the head in every single standpoint.
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  And it is, it's just really amazing that you have created
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  such an amazing model that is able to do that and that we here
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  are able to hear your insight every single week and get a
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  little bit of a glimpse into that brain of yours and what is
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  happening in the weather. Are there any other highs, lows,
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  anything else that we're seeing out there that we need to cover
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  today? Gary, we raised the bar really
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  high. Yeah, we're not going to be 100%
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  accurate. I'm predicting hurricanes, we're
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  in the range of 25% to about 85% and the 85% kicks in when you do
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  have an early storm and then that really triggers.
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  I can be highly confident there's going to be another one
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  in the same spot. But 25 to 85% on hurricanes,
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  severe weather outbreaks this season, we've been 100% accurate
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  so far. Usually we're 90 Packard, which
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  means one of ours is not going to happen in the blocking that
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  is forecast to happen next week. This storm that's caught in that
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  blocking pattern may limit severe weather.
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  So the next severe weather is that we have in our report in
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  our guide, which is due around May 8th or so.
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  It's starting to look like it might not materialize.
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  That might be the one that misses.
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  So I hate, I yelled a little bit.
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  I hate being wrong and missing some people criticize Gary is
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  you act like you're never wrong. No, we are wrong. 25 to 85%
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  means there's there's going to be some clunkers in there in our
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  forecast, but the pattern is still cycling nearly 100%
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  accurately. Our forecast, as we learn more
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  each year, get more and more accurate.
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  However, it's far from perfect. I do raise the bar a lot, so
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  it's not going to be perfect, but it's accurate enough for
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  people listening. You guys right now, you farmers,
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  Cattle, USA, you can rely on these forecasts enough to make
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  very smart decisions. Yes, you absolutely can.
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  And if anyone listening to this is like, Yep, bye.
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  I need to get in on this information.
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  I need to see when we're going to be able to get in the fields
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  in the next few weeks. I need to see when Harv what
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  harvest is going to look like. All of that jazz.
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  Head down to the show notes. We've got our Weather 2020
• 13:16
  exclusive cattle USA partnership link down there for all of you
• 13:19
  guys so that you can check it out.
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  See it's, it's really awesome what what weather 2020 team is
• 13:26
  doing. I know Gary and I come on here
• 13:27
  every single week and we talk about it, but it's really cool
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  to get on their website and actually see what's happening
• 13:32
  and all of the models that they put together and everything like
• 13:34
  that. So make sure you head down there
• 13:36
  you go check it out. And as always, Gary, thank you
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  for your time today. I hope you have a great rest of
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  your Friday and we love it. And to all of you listeners out
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  there, you're hearing this on Monday.
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  So again, we're hoping that our Friday energy is coming and
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  shaking off a little bit on you and that you have a great rest
• 13:54
  of your Monday and a great week. As always, like subscribe rate
• 13:58
  review and we appreciate you here at the team for doing all
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  of those things. Have a blessed week.
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  We will talk to you all tomorrow.