Latest / Rice on the Radio / 2026 NFL Futures: Win Totals, Player Props, Awards & Super Bowl Picks

Transcript

2026 NFL Futures: Win Totals, Player Props, Awards & Super Bowl Picks · Rice on the Radio

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: When I hear Ian, I I think of you.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of great Ian in Rapaport, Ian Begley.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's pronounced differently, but I'm eagle, but you're you're the guy.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: I guess there's only one way to find out.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: Let's do it too, right?
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_02: Extra, extra, keep the light low.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_02: New York talking with the late light go from the garden blow to the stadium stickers.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: When we got W.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: What does it mean?
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: Fight on the radio.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: Commit to your speakers, big things, box tools, off break, building with the letter games, that's the giant next on the pull up, no fitting on the fence.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: Running down lights right on the radio.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_02: Let's do it to it in the Well, alright.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: Opening week, for the love of God, is finally here.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: And I have spent I don't even know how much time over the last month talking about fantasy football.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: Draft strategy, rankings, tears, yada yada yada.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: I've done all of it.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: And eventually I've realized that's great.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: I love fantasy football.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'm good at fantasy football.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm glad you value my opinion on fantasy football.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: But I would also like to talk about the actual sport, you know?
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Because we have an NFL season starting.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: So over the last couple days, I've been going through schedules, win totals, division races, some player props, awards, basically trying to figure out where what I actually believe about these teams differs from what the market is asking me to bet on.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: And that's really what this episode is about this week.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: This is not me sitting here telling you I got 35 locks for you to parlay together.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: If somebody tells you they have 35 NFL future locks before week one, I would probably do the exact opposite of whatever they're doing.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: No, some of these I really like, some are leans, some are just some numbers where I looked at it and I went, hmm.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think you're asking the wrong question about this team.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: Because the bet should come after the football opinion.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: I believe something about this team or this player, and here's the market that lets me bet on it.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: So let's put some shit on tape.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: Let's have our rolling the dice with rice season-long segment kick off with a bang here with some futures.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: So that way in January we can come back and figure out how smart I was or how completely full of shit I was.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: Either way, let's roll the dice.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna kick things off with the team futures.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: And the first one that I really like is Denver.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: Because if you've listened to me at all this preseason, this has probably become one of my defining takes.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: I hate to say it, I love the Broncos.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: Ryan Kelly, you're welcome.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: Give me Denver over nine and a half wins on the season.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: And what I don't understand is why I still feel like I'm the one being aggressive here.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: This isn't some seven-win team where I'm projecting a massive leap.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: Denver was right there last year.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: Bo Knicks breaks his ankle, can't play in the AFC championship game, and I genuinely genuinely believe, there we go, if Knicks doesn't hurt, get hurt, there's a pretty damn good chance Denver is playing in the Super Bowl.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: So now what?
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: I'm supposed to come into this season and be scared of 10 wins?
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: Why?
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Knicks is another year older, another year in Sean Payton's offense, and Sean Payton is going to throw the ball.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah, and now you add Jalen Waddell.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: More speed, another legitimate weapon, another way to make life easier on the quarterback.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah, and by the way, then there's the defense.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: That defense is mean, fast, physical, gets after you, and I think they're coming into the season a little bit pissed off.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: They weren't just happy to make the playoffs last year.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: They were close.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: They were right there.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: And now Knicks has something to prove because his season ended with him watching the biggest game of his career instead of playing in it.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, the AFC is difficult.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, the AFC West is difficult.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's probably part of why the number is sitting where it is.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't think Denver needs everything to go perfectly for them to win 10 games.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're really good, and I'm going further than the over.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think Denver wins the AFC West, which brings us directly into Kansas City here.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Under 10 and a half for Kansas City this year.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: And no, that does not mean Patrick Mahomes is washed up or anything like that.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: That's not what I'm saying.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just saying Mahomes can be Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City can still go 10 and 7.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: Both things are allowed to exist in the same universe.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know?
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: You're not asking me if the Chiefs are good.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: Of course they're good.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: You're asking me if they're getting to 11 wins.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: That's different.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think the division is much harder.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: I think Denver has closed a lot of the gap, if not overtaken the gap.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: The Chargers aren't going anywhere, and Mahomes is coming back from a major knee injury.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'm still going to have him for comeback player of the year, I think, because if he comes back looking like Patrick Mahomes, and of course he's going to be in that conversation.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: But Mahomes being Mahomes doesn't automatically mean Kansas City wins 12 games.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: That's where I think people get caught up.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: You're betting the logo, you're betting Andy Reid, you're betting on Mahomes and Kelsey's last season.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: I understand it.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: They've earned that respect.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't need Kansas City to suck.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: I need them to win 10 games.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: They can go 10 and 7, make the playoffs, be the team nobody wants to see in January, yada yada, yada, yada.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I can still cash my ticket.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'm selling Kansas City relative to the number.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: If that means I'm planting my flag, that the balance of power has shifted a little bit, fine.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: So be it.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: I plant it.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: Next one, Cleveland under five and a half.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, I know.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, such a tough bet, so hard, I know.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: But it's five and a half.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, do we really think Cleveland's gonna sneak out six games?
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: This might be free money here.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: It's one of the weakest teams in football.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Six wins?
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, man.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: I that's asking a lot.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: When I when I went through the schedule game by game, my original projection actually got too garbage.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I started doing a spreadsheet and I had them at one and sixteen.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: Now, look, is that possible?
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: But it doesn't happen too often.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: C NFL, man.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: Weird shit happens, turnovers, injuries, weather.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: Some Sundays stuff doesn't make sense.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: There's teams that you don't know how they lost to the other.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: But under six and a half or under five and a half, yeah, that sounds easy.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: The other under that I love that is six and a half, is Tennessee.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: They're in a similar situation, man.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: Seven wins for Tennessee this year.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, man.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: I look, I'll put a disclaimer on this one because when I originally win game by game, same thing, I messed up and I had them going 0 and 17.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: Now, again, that's not gonna happen.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's ridiculous.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: But when I stopped laughing at the projection that I accidentally put together and I started actually looking at things, it's not so much that will Tennessee go winless.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's more I I don't see the path that they get to seven football games, seven wins.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they might steal a couple.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: They'll beat somebody they're not supposed to.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: But over 17 games, I think this is a bad football team.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: New head coach, new offensive coordinator, a lot of Jets and Giants players that were on bad teams, a second-year quarterback who hasn't looked good, a rookie receiver who has had a bad preseason, a mediocre to average running back with no backup in sight, a defense that's not exactly standing out on paper anytime soon.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: Seven wins for the Tennessee Titans.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: I know the AFC South is bad, but I I just don't see it.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: Next one on the list for me, Dallas Cowboys over nine and a half.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, I am aware.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: I'm aware of what I'm doing.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'm putting my faith in the Dallas Cowboys.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: Historically, that's the kind of sentence that gets people in trouble.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: But I think this team is really good.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the conversation around Dallas has gotten too focused on everything that can go wrong instead of what this team looks like when Dak Prescott stays upright and healthy.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: Because if Dak is upright, this offense is a problem.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: Pickens, Lamb, Dak moving around, Javante Williams, they're gonna score.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: There's no way around it.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: But I also think the defense got a little bit better too.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: You got Quinn and Williams, you got Kenny Clark up the middle.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: That should solve your run stopping issues.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: They got some grown men in there, so that's some weight.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: And then you add Caleb Downs to the back end.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I really, really loved him coming into the draft.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: I think he is going to be that generational safety, that next big name safety in the league.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: So I look at nine and a half and I think, yeah, if Dak plays all 17 games, I'm not asking for a 14-3 season.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just asking for 10 wins.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: And if you plan on making the playoffs for once and actually going deep into the playoffs, you better get 10 wins.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: Look, health is the thing.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: I get it.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_01: Dak is the bet inside the bet.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: Fine.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: If he misses six weeks, we're probably having a different conversation.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm not betting on injury here.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'm betting on the football team in front of me.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I think Dallas is a double-digit win team.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: And uh honestly, I think they might win the NFC East, too, but that's a different story.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of NFC East, Washington, the Washington Commanders, under seven and a half.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want this to sound like I think Jaden Daniels suck.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: I'm an LSU guy.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: I like him.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: Not really super pumped about all the uh bullshit going on with his number, but whatever.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: Look, I think he's good.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think the receivers are fine.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: There are things that I like about Washington, but losing your left tackle before the season even starts is is not ideal, right?
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: And then you look at the schedule.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know if you have done this, but oh boy, do they have a gauntlet in front of them.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: They open at Philly, at Dallas, Seattle, Indy, Giants, at San Francisco, then finally the bye.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, you know, catch your breath, come out of the bye.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: Then you got Philly and the Rams and Giants on a Thursday night, and then Cincinnati.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: What do you want me to do with that?
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: And then you still got Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Dallas again in that schedule.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: So those first like eight, nine games under seven and a half, I don't know.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how how they even get to eight wins, maybe.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, where are the eight wins coming?
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: If you tell me Washington finishes seven and ten and Jamie Daniels actually played his ass off, then I'd believe you.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: But those things don't exactly contradict each other.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: You can have a good quarterback and still lose because you're playing good teams every goddamn week.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: Washington under seven and a half just seems like an easy play to me.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: The schedule in a row is just asking too much.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: Now's when I uh be the homer here and everybody jumps on me.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: New York Jets, five and a half.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: Over.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, I know, I know.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Before anybody gets excited, I'm not telling you the Jets are going to the Super Bowl.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: Relax.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not even not even telling you they're gonna make the playoffs.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: I just need six wins.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's it.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: Six.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: And it all comes back down to Gino.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_01: You know, people hear Gino Smith and immediately want to decide whether he's good enough to be the long-term answer.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: I do not care, and he is not the long-term answer.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's not what this bet requires.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: I just need competent quarterback play.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: Can Gino stand behind this offensive line, get the football to Garrett Wilson, keep the offense on schedule, and occasionally punish a defense for loading up against Brees Hall.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think, again, the bar is so low, honestly, that simple competency changes everything.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: Defense has to respect the pass.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: Brees gets a little more room.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: Garrett gets a quarterback who can get him the football on time.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: You sustain a couple more drives.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: The defense isn't constantly coming back onto the field after three plays.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I just need six wins.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Not ten, not playoffs, not a Super Bowl appearance.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need Geno Smith to turn into Peyton Manning.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: Six football games.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think the Jets can do that.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: And you're gonna hear the same thesis later with Geno Smith's yards, by the way.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_01: Once we start getting into player props, they're basically all the same bet.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: If the Jets offense can reach competence, what a standard.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: But here we are.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: And for the Giants, I I've been tossing and turning back and forth with this one.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: So the number is seven and a half with the Giants.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: They are different.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: No doubt about it.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: If you make me choose a side, I guess I'm gonna go the over.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: But I want the distinction on tape.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not running to the window to go play Sisbet.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, this is not Denver where I feel super good about it.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: The front seven can be nasty.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think John Harbaugh is gonna have them playing a physical style and have them ready for every game they play.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: Dart has an upside, obviously.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: Malik Neighbors is a stud.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: But there are real concerns here.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: The secondary is the biggest one, in my opinion.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: The front seven is a hell of a lot more better than the back end.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Dart is entering year two.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: The league has some tape on him.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Defensive coordinators have spent some time studying him.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: What bothered him?
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: What can we take away from him?
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I expect them to lean on the run early, play defense, take pressure off Dart.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: That's fine.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: But eventually, teams are going to stack the box and say, okay, Jackson, go beat us.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: So do I think the Giants are better?
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: Do I think they're well coached?
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: Do I feel great asking them to find eight wins during the season?
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: Not really.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: Kind of.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: But if I had to pick a side, I would take the over.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: And the last one, San Francisco under 10.5.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: I don't hate the 49ers.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think they're entirely falling apart.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: I just think that uh that 11 wins is a lot, you know?
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: There are enough questions there that I'm more comfortable betting 10 or fewer than I am betting them to win 11 and be one of the elite regular season football teams.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: A small lean.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: They could go either way.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: CMC could have the year of his life, or Brock Purdy could get hurt again, and who knows where we are.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: But for now, under 10 and a half.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, division winners.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna rattle these off kind of quick here.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: AFC East, Buffalo, AFC North, Cincinnati.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm buying Burrow and Chase in a huge way.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: AFC South, we're gonna go Houston.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: That uh that defense is just too good to beat in the division.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: AFC West, we're going Denver.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: You guys knew that was coming.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now, NFC.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: NFC East, we're gonna go Dallas.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: Same argument as the win total.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think they can pull it out.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: NFC North, I'm actually gonna take Green Bay.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: This one's more interesting.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: That division is a war.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, it's part of why I like Green Bay.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: Iron sharpens iron.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna get tested all year.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: And I trust Jordan Love just enough.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need him to be Mahomes.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: I need him healthy and good.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: I'm expecting a big year from Christian Watson.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: I really like Tucker Kraft.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: And defensively, I think there's some room to improve, but they should get better as the season goes along.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: NFC South, New Orleans.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, yep, yep.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: I know you're thinking Baker and the Bucks.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, come on.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: Look, I'm not pretending that I invented New Orleans, being good here this year.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of uh pundits around the sports media space are kind of jumping on the New Orleans bandwagon here.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: Look, it might have become a cute pick in some corners, but I think there might actually be something there.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: The defense isn't great, but it's not terrible.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: And they seem to believe they found something at quarterback with Tyler Shuck.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: So what do they do?
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: They sign Travis AtiN, A-chan, whichever one he's going by now.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: And they invest heavily in Jordan Tyson.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, he is hurt right now, but if and when he gets healthy and he becomes what they drafted him to be, that's another legitimate weapon for a young, blossoming quarterback.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: And also, you know, I look around at the division, I go, why the hell not?
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not calling New Orleans a secret 13-win juggernaut here.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: I just think the division is open enough that if the quarterback is real, NFL tends to get weird, right?
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: So give me the Saints.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: And the NFC West kind of bounce back and forth on this one, but give me the Rams just because they're the favorite, you know.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: The defense is gonna be mean.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: How much does Matthew Savard have left in him?
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: He's got one more hurrah, you know?
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: Give me the Rams for the NFC West.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: So, real simple here Buffalo, Cincy, Houston, Denver, Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, and the Rams.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the fun part.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get into some player markets, some season-long player props to throw on your ticket and watch them for four months and hate when they miss by 50 yards, right?
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna start with passing yards.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: Good old quarterback action.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: The first one here is a what do I how do I put this?
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's a perfect example of why I actually wanted to look at all these numbers instead of just reaching out to them and you know, this one looks good, this one looks good.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: Did you know Jared Goff is the highest number on the board at 4,050 yards?
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: That's a lot of yards for Jared Goff.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: At least that's what I thought.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: So I started doing some homework and I'm like, why is he so high?
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: You know, whatever.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes gets treated like he's the nice system quarterback who hands the ball off and stays out of the way.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: When really that's not what he's been.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: The dude year after year throws for a shitload of yards, and he's accurate, and he gets the ball out fast.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_01: He's got a Munra, Jameson Williams, Gibbs out of the backfield, Laporta, and Gibbs matters here because like passing yards don't care whether you throw a 40-yard laser or it's a two-yard check down and it turns into a 50-yard run.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: They all count.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: So 4,050 yards sounds aggressive on paper for Jared Goff until you're actually realizing that Jared Goff has done that the last three years in a row.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: So my first reaction was over.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_01: But after looking at it and doing some homework, I'm taking the over.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_01: Next on the list, Trevor Lawrence over 3,700 yards.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think this might be the best player pop on the board right now.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need mythical Clemson Trevor Lawrence breakout season that everybody's been waiting for.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need MVP Trevor Lawrence.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: I need 37,751 yards.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: Jacksonville is going to live and die with the football in his hands.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers gives you another reliable target, useful tight ends, some check downs to Bichel Tutan.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: There are plenty of places to distribute the football.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't exactly see Jacksonville becoming a team where Lawrence throws 18 times a week when they win 17-13.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_01: No, they're going to ask him to throw.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: So can he throw for 3,800 yards?
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I absolutely think he can.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: If he's healthy all year and doesn't clear this, I'd be pretty disappointed if I was Jacksonville, to be honest.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_01: So over.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll come back to him later for touchdowns, too.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: But Bo Knicks over 3,500 yards.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: And if I believe everything I just told you about Denver before, how do I not bet this?
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: Sean.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: Payton wants to throw the ball.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: Nick's handles volume.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: You've added Waddle another year in the system.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_01: And 3,500 yards over 17 games is barely over 200 yards a week, by the way.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: I'm telling you, Denver can win the division and make a deep run.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_01: If Nick's is healthy, I have a hard time seeing him not getting over that.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: Couple quick hits.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: Drake May over 3,700.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: Harder schedule, fine.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_01: He can regress from last year and still clear this, though.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: He's accurate, and now you've given him AJ Brown.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: So I like to be over there.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: Gino Smith, over 2,900 yards.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: Again, Jets competence bet.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: Can Gino throw for 3,000 yards?
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: Keep him upright.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: Get the ball to Garrett Wilson.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: Don't implode, and I'm pretty sure he can.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: Moving to receiving yards, Justin Jefferson over 1,150 yards.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to overthink this.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_01: At some point, Justin Jefferson is going to be Justin Jefferson.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: And I actually kind of like the fit with Kyler Murray here, too, because Kyler isn't getting any taller, as they say.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: So he can't really see over the line, right?
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: But when the play stops, he scrambles.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: And Justin Jefferson is pretty good at that school yard bullshit scramble around.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'll get open, just throw me the ball, play style.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: You know?
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I think there is an avenue here where Justin Jefferson actually has a pretty good year.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_01: Garrett Wilson, over 975 yards, same thing, same Jets bet, different rapper.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: Can he clear a thousand yards?
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: Well, he's cleared a thousand yards in every year he's played, except for when he's hurt.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_01: And that's with some of the worst quarterbacks that the Jets have had in their system for a long time.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: Geno Smith, professional quarterback.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's going to throw you some interceptions, but he's going to be able to get the ball to Garrett on time.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: I see no reason he shouldn't clear a thousand yards.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: Brock Bowers, over 925 receiving yards.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: We've already seen the ceiling.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: This isn't a breakout projection for him.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: He can go over a thousand relatively easy, especially with arms like Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza, who's probably going to be looking for a safety valve over the middle.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: He's a feature receiver who happens to be 6'6, 280.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: If I get the health all season, love the over.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: Zay Flowers, over 975 yards.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think I like the player more than the situation.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: He's shown a lot of growth and he's gotten better every year.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: The only problem is Baltimore has a lot more ways to move the football.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Lamar, Derek, Mark Andrews.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_01: There will be some weeks where Zay plays well and they simply just don't need 12 targets from him.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a little bit of a concern, but he is explosive enough, and I still think he can get to a thousand if you get the ball in his hands.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: Couple other rapid fire ones.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: Amunra, St.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: Brown over 1,250.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_01: Again, if we're betting on golf volume, I'm comfortable taking this bet.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: Jamar Chase over 1,300 yards.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_01: Look, I think he can do it.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: It is a high number.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not exactly going to throw my house on it, but it is doable for him.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_01: I actually prefer him for offensive player of the year as a cleaner way to bet, Chase, if you think he's going to have those kind of numbers.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_01: Tet McMillan over 950.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: Love the player.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: Bryce scares the shit out of me.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: The talent says over, but the quarterback makes me sweat.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a good lean.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't exactly keep it as my last leg on my parlay.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: Jalen Waddell over 900, favorite of this group, explosive receiver in an offense that I'm buying pretty much everywhere.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_01: DJ Moore over 825.
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_01: I love the player, and it'll probably be Josh Allen's first true wide receiver one, but there are going to be a lot of times that James Cook is going to get a lot of it, and Josh Allen might just take it.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: And also Dalton Kinkade over there, too.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: When he's on the field as a tight end, he uh he sees a lot of the he sees a lot of catches.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: Now we can move into everybody's favorite here.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: The running backs will move into rushing yards.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: I got a couple here.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: Kenneth Walker over 940 yards.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_01: Kenneth Walker in Kansas City with Andy Reed.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: If Andy Reid has a three-down back that he trusts, production is written all over that.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't need 1,400 yards.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need a 2,000-yard rusher.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: I need 950 yards.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's 56 yards a game.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: Defenses can't spend every snap crashing downhill to stop him because Mahomes is standing behind him.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: Even if it is uh 80% Mahomes, there's still talent.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: He's a good back.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: He's got he's in a good offense.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: He's gonna get a real workload.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna buy over 940.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: Seems easy enough to me.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: Saquon Barkley, over 1,075 yards.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: So the number moved up from where I originally found it, but I still like it.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need another historic season.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need, you know, upside down backflips, hurdles from him.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: I need Saquon to be Saquon.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: I need 1,076 yards behind that line on a team that I actually expect to lean on him a little more this year after everything that went on with the passing game last year and the Philly drama, the Philly drama, the uh the AJ Brown drama between him and Hurts.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like, just give Saquon the ball, man.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: Why wouldn't you?
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_01: If he's healthy, burn him, man.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: You're paying him.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: Just use him up.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: So I like the over there.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: David Montgomery over 800 yards.
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_01: He's Houston's lead back.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think so.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Woody Marks will play some.
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_01: His role can grow.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: Fine, whatever.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see this as an automatic 50-50 backfield.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think Montgomery carries the mail, especially early.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, he he shows why he was knuckles in that Sonic and Knuckles pair.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: And if Houston is as good as I think they are, or at least their defense is as good as I think they are, I think they got a chance to be up early and just eat that clock.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: Again, I don't need 2,000 yards.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: I don't even need 1,500 rushing yards.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: I need 801.
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think he can get there.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: Couple quick hitters for rushing yards.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_01: Ashin Jante, if you've listened to me earlier, I uh I'm pretty high on him in QBX system.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: I think the offensive line is going to be better.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: I actually think he had a pretty good year last year.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_01: It just he was being drafted like he was supposed to be the next Adrian Peterson, which he might be, but right now he's not.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: And he was playing against playing with, excuse me, probably the worst offensive line.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: So Janty over 975.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_01: I also, once again, being a Jets homer here, like Brees Hall over 900 yards.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: If he's healthy and he can find the holes, and the passing game holds up just a little bit, I don't see any reason he shouldn't have 901 rushing yards.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_01: Ramanj Stevenson is a good one here, too.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_01: Only over 625 rushing yards.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: I know it's like a committee over there.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's Trayvon Henderson, but I actually think the split between the two of them is going to be 65-35, with Raman J probably closer to the 65.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: And Henderson is already missing week one.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: He's been ruled out for Sunday.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: Low threshold, easy bet.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: Get it while you can.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: Rushing touchdowns, since we're sticking with running backs here.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: Kenneth Walker over seven and a half.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_01: Same thesis there.
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_01: They're going to feed him the rock.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: Three down back, Andy Reid, Mahomes offense.
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_01: All I need is eight touchdowns.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_01: I'm in.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: Jonathan Taylor over 11.5.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_01: Look, he scored 18 last year.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_01: That's a lot of touchdowns.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't need 18.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_01: I need 12.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: He can score six fewer touchdowns than last year, and I can still cash the bet.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: Saquon Barkley over seven and a half, same thing as before.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: They're going to lean on him.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think Philly might pull back a little bit on the tush push, even.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_01: So enough of those.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_01: Saquon gets a gets you down to the two, and then Hurts just comes out of nowhere.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think Saquon actually has a pretty good year, pretty high in touchdown volume.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: And same thing, Montgomery.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I know I'm repeating myself here, but Montgomery over seven and a half touchdowns is definitely doable.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think Woody Marks is going to be more of the passing down back.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_01: So if they get down in the goal line there, they're just going to feed the rock to uh the rolling bowl and knives that David Montgomery is and let him fall in the end zone.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_01: If he can do that eight times, I'll be pretty happy.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: So we're bouncing around a little bit here.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to receiving touchdowns now.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_01: Same argument as before.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think Justin Jefferson over seven and a half.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think he, you know, I think he has a good year.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: I really do.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: When I first built this out, uh the number was six and a half.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I loved six and a half.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: The market moved up because I guess everybody else loves six and a half.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_01: So now I need eight.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_01: Eight is kind of a big number, but I still like it, man.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think the coverage breaks down.
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kyler moves around, and JJ just finds his way open.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_01: Trey McBride over six and a half is a good one here.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: He scored 11 times last year.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: His rookie year, he only scored three.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: But the production and catches both stayed the same.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not really assuming he's going to score another 11 touchdowns here, but I think they figured out hey, we have a six foot six, six foot seven rebounder.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's uh let's throw him the ball in the in the 10-yard line within the 10-yard line here.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: Another one I love, Mike Evans over six and a half receiving touchdowns.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: Look, this is not Mike Evans of yesteryear.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, I'm not pretending he is either.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_01: Guy had a thousand receiving yards for ten straight seasons.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: God bless him.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's not him anymore.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's why he signed with San Francisco.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's why San Francisco signed him.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: Hey man, come be six foot five, come run a quick little out route and go up and high point the ball.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: Help Brock Purdy out, help us score some touchdowns when we get down to the distance.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, seven touchdowns.
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's totally doable.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: And last couple quick hitters here for receiving touchdowns.
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_01: CeeDee Lamb over seven and a half.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: Again, Dallas' offense.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: And by the way, City only had three touchdowns last year.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I expect that number to go up.
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_01: Jalen Waddell over five and a half.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: Love it.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_01: Kyle Pitts over four and a half.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: Five, five touchdowns.
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_01: Do you know that for every year he's been in the league, he has scored that many touchdowns?
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: Well, this is his sixth year.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: So should clear that number, no problem.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: And Christian Watson over five and a half.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, the health is a concern, but if he's on the field, he can score six touchdowns.
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I think the Packers are going to pass the ball a little bit more, especially with Josh Jacobs not being on the field to start the season.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_01: Which brings me to passing touchdowns here.
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_01: Dak Prescott over 27.5.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_01: Just keep Dak upright.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: If you get eight from CD, and you probably get another eight from, I don't know, Lamb, sprinkling a couple more here and there, he can get 28 passing touchdowns.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_01: Trevor Lawrence over 25.5.
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_01: I already told you earlier in the episode I'm buying his arm, so might as well give me the touchdowns too, you know.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_01: Justin Herbert over 25.5 passing touchdowns.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_01: If you're buying the hype on the Mike McDaniel run offense and being creative and dangerous, I think uh I think there's an avenue there where he can throw for 26 touchdowns.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: The main concern I have with this bet, though, is how many goal line touchdowns O'Meare and Hampton is going to steal away from him.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_01: Still think it's definitely doable, though.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, enough with the offense.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_01: Let's give a little love to the defense here, right?
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: Little defensive guys.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: How about sacks?
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Miles Garrett last year broke the sack record.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_01: And his number currently is sitting at 15 and a half.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: For almost anybody else in football, I would say no, because that's a very high number.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: Miles Garrett is different.
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_01: He had 23 last year.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_01: And oh yeah, by the way, you're putting Aaron Donald next to him.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: And oh yeah, by the way, you're playing in a high-powered offense that knows how to control the ball and get up and down the field and play with a lead so you can pin your ears back and go attack the quarterback right away.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: People are gonna be.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_01: Look, he did that on a Browns team that was constantly behind the sticks or constantly losing the game.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_01: Give Aaron Donald a lead.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_01: Give Miles Garrett a lead.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_01: Let these two wreak have wrecked havoc.
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh I think a lot of people are gonna get their eyes open to how good Miles Garrett actually is this year.
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: So his over 15 and a half sacks number, yeah, I'll take that, no problem.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_01: Now, since I'm just gonna be a homer this whole episode, I'm cool with it.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_01: David Bailey, over five and a half sacks.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_01: Look, I I don't I don't care.
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_01: I don't care if I'm a homer.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: My standard is higher than the markets.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_01: You went second overall.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_01: You were supposedly this next generational level pass rushing talent.
• 36:37
  SPEAKER_01: You had 14 and a half sacks in college the last year.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: What?
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm supposed to be thrilled, but with six.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_01: Honestly, six sacks isn't my bar.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking for nine, brother.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking for eight to ten.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's where I want them.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're what they told me you were gonna be when they took you second overall, you better beat six sacks.
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_01: And if he gets a nine, well then we're talking to you again about defensive rookie of the year, which is what I got for him right there.
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: A couple quick other numbers.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: Trey Hendrickson over 11 and a half.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: The move from Sincy to Baltimore, he's gonna want to rip some people's heads off.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_01: He's a proven sack reducer, new team.
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_01: Give me the 12.
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_01: And Nick Bosa, actually.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_01: Nick Bosa's got a weird number.
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's nine and a half.
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_01: The talent says yes.
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_01: The health is always a concern with him.
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_01: But if I get a full healthy season out of Nick Bosa, there's no way he doesn't get double-digit sacks.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: He's that good.
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now for the awards, the hardware, the fun stuff, the stuff that everybody dresses up for at the end of the year and walks the red carpet and pretends, you know, we know who's gonna get it.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_01: There's no way this guy doesn't win this award.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: Really, what this is gonna be is if you last if you listen for the last 40 minutes, you already know most of these arguments.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: MVP, I'm gonna go Joe Burrow.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_01: Again, if he's healthy, I think he can lead the league in passing easily, to be honest with you.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I've already got Cincinnati winning the AFC North.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_01: If Burrow puts up huge numbers and Cincinnati wins games, he is right in the middle of the MVP conversation.
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_01: So give me Burrow.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_01: And on that same caliber, offensive player of the year, I'm taking Jamar Chase.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_01: If Burrow has that kind of year, who do you think is going to be catching the football?
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's actually why I prefer this method than forcing an enormous receiving yard number for Jamar Chase.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think his offensive player of the year was going off at plus 600.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, I think Chase has a monster year.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think Burrow can win MVP.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: Chase, offensive player of the year.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: They fit hand in hand.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: Defensive player of the year, let's just keep it chalk here.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_01: I already gave you the case.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_01: Garrett plus Aaron Donald, if he stays healthy, it could be a ridiculous season for him.
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: Give me Miles Garrett for defensive player of the year.
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: Offensive rookie of the year.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: So this is one that I look at as more of an opportunity bet.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, Jeremiah Love could be the easy bet.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: Cardell Tate, maybe, maybe even Makai Lemon or something.
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_01: I'm taking Jadarian Price.
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_01: Seattle spent the first round pick on him in the last pick in the first round on him, and there's an early opening in that backfield.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: If he can walk through the door and show that he deserves the three-down roll and he doesn't give it back, he could be racking up numbers quick in a good offense that has to take the top off for Jackson Smith and Chegba.
• 39:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think Jadarian Price has a really good chance to win offensive rookie of the year this year.
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_01: Defensive rookie of the year, well, you guessed it, boys and girls.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: David Bailey, my boy, can't wait to watch him rip Josh Allen's head off one time this year.
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_01: Now, look, I told you, I'm I'm expecting nine sacks out of him.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: Uh if that's the case, he should have a great opportunity to win defensive player of the year.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_01: Comeback player of the year here.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's boring.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_01: I know.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's obvious, I know.
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, the price isn't really that incredible.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really care.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's probably an easy bet.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: Major knee injury.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_01: If he comes back and he looks like himself, Patrick Mahomes, comeback player of the year, is almost a lock.
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Kansas City under 10.5, sure.
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_01: Mahomes, comeback player of the year, definitely doable.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: Both can be true.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have a coach of the year pick for you guys because I don't really uh know how it's going to turn out, how the uh how the season's gonna go, who's gonna get hurt.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_01: I could probably tell you it's not gonna be Aaron Glenn, that's for sure.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, no coach of the year pick for me.
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_01: And for the Super Bowl.
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we've done the win totals, the divisions, the player props, the awards.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_01: I guess we gotta get to the Super Bowl, right?
• 41:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm not really gonna give you a champion.
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_01: But if you're making me tell you the two teams that I think are standing there in February, give me the Denver Broncos.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_01: I hate that.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: But I think they have the best chance.
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they were they were right there last year.
• 41:42
  SPEAKER_01: How can you not take them again?
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_01: And for the NFC, I'm gonna go a little bit off the course here.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_01: The Rams are favored five to one.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_01: No NFL team that's been favored at five to one odds to win the Super Bowl has won in the last 20 years.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna throw them out right away.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_01: How about a little 16 to 1?
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_01: How about the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl?
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: How's that sound?
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_01: I know it sounds a little crazy, right?
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_01: But I think it's definitely doable.
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_01: Look, I I can't give you some perfect mathematical explanation for why I think this is the year.
• 42:28
  SPEAKER_01: Part of it is just where I think the team is headed.
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna play hard football all year.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna get tested.
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_01: And if they can survive that division and come out of it playing their best football, that's kind of a team that I don't want to see in January.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think Jordan Love can stay healthy.
• 42:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think he can make the full next jump.
• 42:49
  SPEAKER_01: I really like Tucker Kraft.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_01: And defensively, look, they're gonna get Michael Parsons back eventually.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_01: He's a game wrecker.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna get some guys.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_01: Is it spicy?
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: Is it stupid?
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think so.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe it is.
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_01: But we'll see who's holding the Lombardi trophy.
• 43:08
  SPEAKER_01: Right now it's September.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're making me tell you who's standing there in February, I'm going with Denver and Green Bay, and you can put that on tape.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_01: But as far as a true winner, you won't find it here.
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_01: Not yet, at least.
• 43:25
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, that's it, man.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's all I got for you guys.
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_01: Those are my 2026 NFL Futures that's rolling the dice with rice NFL Specials Edition, the season long bets.
• 43:37
  SPEAKER_01: Some of these are gonna look great.
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_01: Some of these are gonna look absolutely stupid, horrendously bad.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_01: There's probably something I said tonight that I'm gonna listen back to in December and go, what the hell was I talking about?
• 43:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's fine, man.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's why we do it.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's why we keep things on tape.
• 43:57
  SPEAKER_01: Because now there's no pretending in January that I knew everything this whole time.
• 44:02
  SPEAKER_01: But if I get it all right, I did know everything this whole time, right?
• 44:07
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, the opinions are here, the bets are here, the division winners are here, I got Denver and Green Bay standing there at the end.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now we finally get to actually watch football and find out.
• 44:18
  SPEAKER_01: Football is back, guys.
• 44:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's time to put your feet up on Sunday, crack a couple beers, tell the wife we're not going apple picking, and just watch your favorite team control your mood for the next four hours.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_01: You gotta love it.
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_01: How could you not?
• 44:38
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, tell somebody you love them, spread good energy out there.
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_01: My name is Ian Rice.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_01: This has been episode eighty-four of Rice on the Radio, and I'll talk to you guys soon.
• 44:48
  unknown: Peace.