Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Big Beautiful Bust: Why Tax Day Isn’t A Win For Trump + Why Can Democrats Put Iowa Back On The Map

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Full Episode - Big Beautiful Bust: Why Tax Day Isn’t A Win For Trump + Why Can Democrats Put Iowa Back On The Map · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: vary and rates may vary. Hello Aaron, Welcome to the
1:47
Speaker 1: Wednesday edition of the Chuck Podcast. This is a good
1:52
Speaker 1: sort of bread and butter political update if you will.
1:56
Speaker 1: I got a candidate running and US Senate candidate is
1:59
Speaker 1: my g yes today at Zach Walls. He's the second
2:03
Speaker 1: candidate from Iowa for US and Iowa that we've interviewed
2:07
Speaker 1: the first one was just Turik, so that Democratic primary.
2:10
Speaker 1: We've now talked to both of them, so I be
2:14
Speaker 1: very curious what you think of the pair of the two,
2:18
Speaker 1: in which one you think has made the best case,
2:22
Speaker 1: if you will. I also have my big top five
2:25
Speaker 1: list on Senate races today, but it's actually about the
2:28
Speaker 1: next five. You know. It feels like the first four
2:32
Speaker 1: are of the most likely flips, are pretty much set
2:36
Speaker 1: in stone and are unlikely to change now in November.
2:39
Speaker 1: What's really fluid is actually frankly five through ten, you know,
2:44
Speaker 1: in that fifth slot, and you'll hear me go into it.
2:46
Speaker 1: So I got that today, got some great questions towards
2:50
Speaker 1: the end. But of course, and I've got a big
2:55
Speaker 1: breakdown on what happened in Hungary and whether how much
2:59
Speaker 1: I'm eating into it. I'll let you decide how much
3:01
Speaker 1: you want to read into it and how prescient foreshadowing
3:06
Speaker 1: and whether it is and what can be learned from
3:07
Speaker 1: it here in the United States. But I do want
3:10
Speaker 1: to begin with today's April fifteen. Now, in my household,
3:15
Speaker 1: the most important thing is it's my son's birthday, So Buddy,
3:19
Speaker 1: happy birthday. He is finishing his first year in college.
3:24
Speaker 1: So I am thankful for that. He is my youngest.
3:29
Speaker 1: I also have an April birthday, and when he was
3:31
Speaker 1: born in April, it meant that's it, right, My birthday
3:34
Speaker 1: went away, April became his birthday month. So in my house,
3:38
Speaker 1: so he was born on tax Day and let's just
3:43
Speaker 1: say he wasn't. The joke was, oh, did you have
3:46
Speaker 1: yourself a nice tax deduction? And I said, no, we
3:49
Speaker 1: had a boy. But I digress. But it is tax Day,
3:53
Speaker 1: and I want to bring it up because if you
3:56
Speaker 1: were James Blair, who's the politic, the political director at
4:01
Speaker 1: the White House who's now just left and he's going
4:03
Speaker 1: to be running the campaign, or you're Chris los Avida,
4:05
Speaker 1: or you're on any Susie Wiles, you're part of the
4:08
Speaker 1: sort of the political team around the president. You had
4:11
Speaker 1: circled April fifteenth, twenty twenty six as perhaps the single
4:16
Speaker 1: most important day in your in the midterm campaign season
4:22
Speaker 1: before November itself. And why would that be Because you
4:26
Speaker 1: were banking on April fifteenth, that first tax day after
4:30
Speaker 1: passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the no
4:33
Speaker 1: tax on tips and all of those promises that you
4:36
Speaker 1: were fulfilling and hoping to deliver with the one big
4:39
Speaker 1: beautiful bill that this would be the day you could
4:42
Speaker 1: celebrate bigger refunds and people had more money in their pockets.
4:48
Speaker 1: And then, of course he starts a war with Iran
4:51
Speaker 1: in February twenty eighth, and before that he teariffs the
4:54
Speaker 1: crap out of things, and so whatever extra money people
4:59
Speaker 1: were getting thanks to some of the tax proposals that
5:03
Speaker 1: were put in has been totally gobbled up. Whatever positive
5:10
Speaker 1: feeling somebody might have had of getting a little bit
5:12
Speaker 1: more back from the irs, they have not felt the
5:16
Speaker 1: extra money because it went right back out the door
5:18
Speaker 1: for their rising electric bill, or their rising gas bill,
5:21
Speaker 1: or their rising costs frankly to go even to the
5:25
Speaker 1: grocery store. And so this was supposed to be a
5:31
Speaker 1: big beautiful day for tax day, one big beautiful tax day,
5:35
Speaker 1: and instead it's one big beautiful bust. Because this is
5:39
Speaker 1: an economy that is not good. It's not every I
5:45
Speaker 1: just taped a conversation with a member of the FET,
5:49
Speaker 1: the president of the Chicago Feed, Austin Goals Me. It'll
5:53
Speaker 1: be on my Newsphere program coming up this weekend. For
5:57
Speaker 1: those of you who subscribe. I thank you. I hope
5:59
Speaker 1: you will take a look at what we're doing over
6:01
Speaker 1: there at New Spirits. Some really really good journalism over there.
6:06
Speaker 1: But obviously we spent a lot of time talking to
6:08
Speaker 1: the economy and we just taped it now, so you know,
6:12
Speaker 1: it's fresh in my head. And this is an economy
6:14
Speaker 1: that is you know, it's not good and it's not
6:18
Speaker 1: in recession. Right, It's this, it's a crappy economy that
6:23
Speaker 1: isn't in recession. I don't know how else to describe it.
6:26
Speaker 1: I'm not quoting him, he didn't put it that way.
6:29
Speaker 1: I mean, it's you know, it's one of the lines
6:32
Speaker 1: he's used when it comes to describing the employment picture.
6:35
Speaker 1: For instance, of the economy is low higher, low fire. Right.
6:39
Speaker 1: You know, hiring looks like we're in a recession, but
6:44
Speaker 1: the lack of layoffs looks like we're in a boom time.
6:46
Speaker 2: Right.
6:46
Speaker 1: So there's the fact is it's unstable and everything. And
6:52
Speaker 1: this gets back to had Donald Trump not touched tariffs
6:57
Speaker 1: the way he did, had he not started this wharf
7:00
Speaker 1: choice with Iran, perhaps today would be a huge day
7:03
Speaker 1: for him. Perhaps today would be the day he was
7:05
Speaker 1: fulfilling a promise to put more money in people's pockets
7:08
Speaker 1: to make their life a bit more affordable. But that
7:13
Speaker 1: is not the policy that he chose. He chose inflationary
7:16
Speaker 1: policies with tariffs, and he chose a decision on a
7:22
Speaker 1: war that created inflationary conditions. And now we're in a
7:26
Speaker 1: situation where we could be in the worst of both worlds,
7:31
Speaker 1: rising unemployment and rising inflation, which makes life miserable for
7:36
Speaker 1: our friends. The fed of trying to figure out what
7:39
Speaker 1: do you do to stimulate this economy or are we
7:41
Speaker 1: basically going to have another decade like the seventies of
7:45
Speaker 1: just a crappy economy where we go nowhere and we
7:48
Speaker 1: wonder as the rest of the world passed us by
7:50
Speaker 1: or we in trouble, etc. And that's you know, this
7:54
Speaker 1: is I mean, it's you know, one of the things
8:00
Speaker 1: I've thought about here. It's like, we haven't had a
8:02
Speaker 1: bad at sort of an this kind of weird, unsteady
8:05
Speaker 1: economy since Jimmy Carter's presidency. And I know Donald Trump,
8:10
Speaker 1: you know, he loves to talk about Carter being a
8:14
Speaker 1: bad president or Biden be a bad president. But there's
8:17
Speaker 1: nobody who's economic policy looks more like Jimmy Carter's these
8:20
Speaker 1: days than Donald Trump's, right, and you know, the mismanagement
8:26
Speaker 1: of the Middle East has only caused more economic uncertainty,
8:30
Speaker 1: also a hallmark of what happened in the late stages
8:32
Speaker 1: of the Carter years. And so here we are, I mean,
8:36
Speaker 1: you know this this and it is politically terrible for
8:43
Speaker 1: him that he cannot celebrate tax Day the way he
8:45
Speaker 1: intended to. And they're going to see, They're going to try.
8:49
Speaker 1: But the problem they got is this tax cut's not
8:51
Speaker 1: being felt by anybody. And that's the real problem and
8:56
Speaker 1: why this has become the one big beautiful buoy ust
9:01
Speaker 1: it is, you know, it is not delivering what they
9:04
Speaker 1: hoped it would deliver. And now the question is can
9:07
Speaker 1: he find a way out of this Iran war of
9:10
Speaker 1: choice that stabilizes the economy and maybe puts the economy
9:17
Speaker 1: on a better trajectory by the fall, because he really
9:20
Speaker 1: only has when you talk to all the economic experts
9:23
Speaker 1: I've been talking to over the last few weeks, you know,
9:25
Speaker 1: we are we are. We've In fact, today's the day
9:28
Speaker 1: April fifteenth, essentially is the day that the sanctions relief
9:32
Speaker 1: goes away for those Russian for Russian oil sanctions release
9:35
Speaker 1: goes away for i Ranian oil. You've got the last
9:40
Speaker 1: tankers that made it through the Strait before the start
9:44
Speaker 1: of the war, I think go to port by the
9:48
Speaker 1: end of this weekend, beginning of next week. So everything,
9:53
Speaker 1: you know, all of the concerns sort of like, Okay,
9:56
Speaker 1: we're hanging in there. We're hanging in there. This could
9:59
Speaker 1: end up going off a cliff in the next couple
10:01
Speaker 1: more weeks. Right now, Every extra week this goes on
10:06
Speaker 1: only exponentially adds to the length of time it's going
10:11
Speaker 1: to take to recover from this, to recover the supply chain,
10:15
Speaker 1: to recover shipping through the Strait, to recover financially through
10:21
Speaker 1: the system. So it's a very precarious position the economy's in,
10:29
Speaker 1: which of course has put Donald Trump in a very
10:32
Speaker 1: precarious position politically, and in fact, you know, he's in
10:38
Speaker 1: a terrible you know that he's in a bad political
10:42
Speaker 1: spot when something he does on social media that normally
10:46
Speaker 1: doesn't get criticism from people who support him gets criticism.
10:51
Speaker 1: And I think this sort of is a reminder and
10:54
Speaker 1: I've said this, I've said it, sort of hinted at
10:57
Speaker 1: this a few times over the last few weeks. I
10:59
Speaker 1: think it's it's likely we will look back on this
11:03
Speaker 1: period of the Trump presidency and say, hey, this is
11:07
Speaker 1: kind of when it all came to an end. Doesn't
11:09
Speaker 1: mean he doesn't finish out the term. I'm not going
11:11
Speaker 1: that far, but it's sort of like when does the
11:14
Speaker 1: presidency stop having you know, where the public is sort
11:17
Speaker 1: of saying, yeah, this one's over, this is going to
11:18
Speaker 1: be a failed presidency, this one's not going anywhere. So
11:21
Speaker 1: now the question is how much more damage gets done
11:23
Speaker 1: and can we mitigate the damage between now and January
11:26
Speaker 1: twenty nine. And that's kind of where we are right
11:28
Speaker 1: right now. And you know, at this point, the best
11:30
Speaker 1: we can hope for is if Trump essentially, you know,
11:34
Speaker 1: it is clear we're going to get a deal. Right.
11:37
Speaker 1: The fact that it's leaked out that the Iranians said
11:40
Speaker 1: they wanted they were willing to do a five year
11:42
Speaker 1: moratorium in Richmond, the United States wanted a twenty year moratorium,
11:46
Speaker 1: well they both accepted the premise that there would be
11:50
Speaker 1: an end date on the moratorium. Right, so all right,
11:54
Speaker 1: five twenty, you know, do you split the difference? You
11:56
Speaker 1: to go twelve? Do you go? I mean we know
12:00
Speaker 1: what's coming, and it's essentially the Iran Nuclear Deal by
12:05
Speaker 1: another name, because there's no other way out of this
12:08
Speaker 1: unless he wants to put ground troops in and try
12:13
Speaker 1: to get regime change. But short of that, the only
12:16
Speaker 1: thing he can do is figure out how to buy
12:18
Speaker 1: off the Iranians to open up the straight and here
12:23
Speaker 1: we are. He kind of has to because this economy
12:27
Speaker 1: is getting worse by the day, this energy problem gets worse.
12:30
Speaker 1: By Yes, our economy, we're more resilient now than they
12:35
Speaker 1: were in the seventies. So while this shock in some
12:38
Speaker 1: ways is bigger than what happened in the seventies, we're
12:41
Speaker 1: also more diversified on all levels. Our energy is more diversified,
12:45
Speaker 1: our ability, right, we don't import as much, right, We're
12:48
Speaker 1: exporters now when it comes to oil, so we are
12:51
Speaker 1: certainly able to sustein. We have better shock absorbers, Okay,
12:58
Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean it doesn't impact and it doesn't
13:00
Speaker 1: do damage. And the longer this goes on, the closer
13:04
Speaker 1: it gets. But I wanted to circle back to to
13:10
Speaker 1: why I believe that you're starting to see you're starting
13:14
Speaker 1: to see signs that this presidency's that people are starting
13:18
Speaker 1: to give up on it, even some of his supporters.
13:21
Speaker 1: And it was how badly his Jesus meme, how quickly
13:26
Speaker 1: and badly it played, right, how quickly it was denounced
13:29
Speaker 1: and how badly it played. We know Donald Trump rarely retreats,
13:35
Speaker 1: and when he retreats, it's because it's people in his
13:39
Speaker 1: own orbit that say, you've gone too far right on
13:43
Speaker 1: the Obama ape meme. Right, Tim Scott criticized it, he
13:48
Speaker 1: erased it. I did not think it was that right,
13:51
Speaker 1: he suddenly I didn't realize I didn't watch it all
13:54
Speaker 1: the way through. Right, This is always his excuse. You know,
13:57
Speaker 1: it's very interesting on Trump. He knows there's he has
14:01
Speaker 1: this reputation of not being very bright, having a short
14:04
Speaker 1: attention span, and he'll sometimes use it as a crutch
14:07
Speaker 1: and like, well, I didn't watch it all the way through.
14:10
Speaker 1: It's sort of like playing to our own bias of thinking, well,
14:14
Speaker 1: of course he didn't watch it because he's lazy, So
14:16
Speaker 1: weirdly he uses it as an excuse, right when I
14:21
Speaker 1: have no doubt he watched the whole video and he
14:23
Speaker 1: knew it all the way through. And I think sometimes
14:25
Speaker 1: we give him too much room to get away where
14:31
Speaker 1: our own we project our own bias on him. We
14:35
Speaker 1: think he's kind of you know, like kind of scatterbrain
14:39
Speaker 1: that he's kind of you know, So, yeah, it's possible
14:42
Speaker 1: he could do that, right, and he uses that as
14:45
Speaker 1: a way to try to get out of things. Now
14:48
Speaker 1: he doesn't apologize for it, but the fact that he retreated,
14:51
Speaker 1: the fact that he deleted it, the fact that he
14:53
Speaker 1: came up manufactured an excuse. So I thought it showed
14:56
Speaker 1: me as a doctor? What what? What part of that
15:03
Speaker 1: AI generated clip made him look like a doctor? The best,
15:09
Speaker 1: the most generous way you could say faith healer, Well,
15:13
Speaker 1: that's that's the most If you say it was just
15:16
Speaker 1: a generic faith healer, maybe that would have been slightly
15:20
Speaker 1: more believable, But it's not very believable. He knew exactly
15:23
Speaker 1: what he was up to on that, and the fact
15:27
Speaker 1: that you know, even JD. Vance wouldn't defend it it.
15:32
Speaker 1: It's the fact that there is a line. And I've
15:35
Speaker 1: always said everybody has a line that Trump will eventually cross.
15:40
Speaker 1: And the question is what do you do when he
15:42
Speaker 1: crosses your line? You know, sometimes people get frustrated that
15:47
Speaker 1: there are certain people staying support, but like what do
15:49
Speaker 1: you do with you know, everybody, and you've heard me
15:51
Speaker 1: say this before, right, Liz Cheney was publicly very supportive
15:54
Speaker 1: everything Trump did until January sixth. So everybody had their
15:58
Speaker 1: own line that was hers, right. John Bolton had his line,
16:01
Speaker 1: Mike Pence had his line, right, everybody's had their line.
16:06
Speaker 1: Chris Christy had a line, Lindsey Graham had a line,
16:08
Speaker 1: then he jumped back to over it, right. Mark or
16:10
Speaker 1: Rubia once had a line, then he jumped back over
16:12
Speaker 1: it too. So you know, sometimes he crossed the line.
16:14
Speaker 1: You walk away and then you beg for forgiveness, and
16:16
Speaker 1: you come back because you want to be at the
16:18
Speaker 1: cool kids table, and you've decided he's in charge of
16:21
Speaker 1: the cool kids table with the Republican Party right now,
16:23
Speaker 1: which arguably he is.
16:26
Speaker 2: So.
16:30
Speaker 1: But let me pain in another scenario for you. If
16:33
Speaker 1: the economy rowing well and we weren't in this war
16:35
Speaker 1: with Iran, and people and the Republicans were genuinely happy
16:39
Speaker 1: with the direction of where things were going, and you
16:40
Speaker 1: just had your sort of typical sort of left right
16:43
Speaker 1: anger at each other all of the if he had
16:48
Speaker 1: done the same meme, you'd have had people saying, yeah,
16:53
Speaker 1: it's not my favorite thing he did, but he was
16:55
Speaker 1: just Joe. You would have had more people going saying, well,
16:59
Speaker 1: he's just joking, and I don't take him seriously when
17:02
Speaker 1: he does stuff like that. I know he didn't mean it, though, Like,
17:05
Speaker 1: if you're happy with the job he's doing and you're
17:08
Speaker 1: uncomfortable with something he tweets or memes, you make the
17:11
Speaker 1: excuse for him.
17:12
Speaker 2: Right.
17:12
Speaker 1: We've seen Mike Johnson do this a lot. We've seen
17:15
Speaker 1: other support. Oh, he didn't mean that, you know, Dany
17:18
Speaker 1: Vance is a reinterpreter of Trump all the time. You know, no, no, no,
17:22
Speaker 1: he didn't mean that on this one though. When things
17:24
Speaker 1: aren't going well, when people are not happy with the
17:27
Speaker 1: direction of your presidency, which you have openly a US
17:31
Speaker 1: bunch of Republican senators now publicly including John Thune joining
17:35
Speaker 1: John Curtis keeping an eye on that clock and saying, hey,
17:38
Speaker 1: you know, we got to have some resolution of this war.
17:42
Speaker 1: I think the fact that he's in the middle of
17:43
Speaker 1: an unpopular war, in the middle of an unpopular economy,
17:46
Speaker 1: and frankly looking like he is kind of flailing here
17:50
Speaker 1: a little bit because he knows politically everything's not going
17:53
Speaker 1: well you know, it sort of gets back to that
17:56
Speaker 1: expression and I used a lot about three or four
17:58
Speaker 1: weeks ago that I think is still apply. Good gets better,
18:00
Speaker 1: bad gets worse, and Trump is in the bad gets worse. Right,
18:04
Speaker 1: think about where we were Easter meme. Everything he is,
18:09
Speaker 1: it's getting more erratic. He's flailing more because he knows
18:11
Speaker 1: this isn't working. He knows he made a mistake, and
18:13
Speaker 1: he's trying to find a way out of it without
18:15
Speaker 1: admitting he made a mistake. And he's flailing. And you know,
18:19
Speaker 1: I know someone to say it's twenty for the Amendment time,
18:21
Speaker 1: or it's just or that look, those of you calling
18:24
Speaker 1: for the twenty fifth amendment, what's changed? What part of
18:27
Speaker 1: Trump's presidency in twenty seventeen is really that much different
18:29
Speaker 1: than the presidency he's doing in twenty twenty six. So
18:33
Speaker 1: either it's always been twenty fifth Amendment time, or this
18:36
Speaker 1: is who he is. But setting that aside here for
18:40
Speaker 1: a moment, I think it's a the fact that people
18:43
Speaker 1: were willing not to defend him on this one and
18:46
Speaker 1: didn't give him the benefit of doubt. That to me
18:49
Speaker 1: is more of a tell about how unhappy they are
18:51
Speaker 1: with the current presidency. If things were going better, they
18:54
Speaker 1: wouldn't feel this comfortable, feeling it necessary to publicly say
18:59
Speaker 1: rich too far. You shouldn't be doing this. It's the
19:03
Speaker 1: very beginning of I think what you're going to start
19:07
Speaker 1: to see more of, which is more and more Republicans
19:09
Speaker 1: realizing Donald Trump's not going to be here in two
19:12
Speaker 1: and a half years. He is not going to be
19:15
Speaker 1: a relevant political figure in their lives the way he
19:18
Speaker 1: is today. He may still be relevant, but not as
19:21
Speaker 1: relevant as he is today. And that's why I think
19:25
Speaker 1: that it's a small thing. But he's in retreat. People
19:32
Speaker 1: in his own side are a little less. We've seen it,
19:35
Speaker 1: even in the numbers more people. And I get to
19:37
Speaker 1: this in a question later, somebody asked about Maga versus Republicanism,
19:41
Speaker 1: and I don't want to repeat myself, but my job
19:48
Speaker 1: is to read tea leaves. Some of you may think
19:51
Speaker 1: sometimes I overread the tea leaves, but that all of
19:54
Speaker 1: these are tea leaves, and I think this is a
19:56
Speaker 1: leaf worth reading. You know, it's cracks. Okay, it isn't
20:05
Speaker 1: a collapse. But once again, as I've been chronicling almost
20:09
Speaker 1: week after week, this is yet another crack another crack.
20:13
Speaker 1: At some point it could collapse another level and on
20:17
Speaker 1: another floor. Well. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is
20:23
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Speaker 1: that code. I'm gonna pivot now to Hungry. There's one
22:10
Speaker 1: topic I haven't I haven't gotten to. It is hungry
22:17
Speaker 1: over the last forty eight hours, and you know a
22:20
Speaker 1: lot of people are saying, you know, how much what
22:22
Speaker 1: should we read into what happened? Does any of this
22:25
Speaker 1: mean anything for the larger battle between sort of the
22:30
Speaker 1: nationalists right and the small l liberal center and left right.
22:37
Speaker 1: You know that we're seeing all over Western Europe and
22:41
Speaker 1: here in the United States and all of that, and
22:46
Speaker 1: I'll tell you sort of I'm not going to be
22:48
Speaker 1: definitive here. But and I get into this, and I
22:51
Speaker 1: get into some detail in my substat column this week,
22:55
Speaker 1: which is up and running and it's free. I don't
22:57
Speaker 1: charge for this. I don't charge for any of it.
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Speaker 1: Newsphere is the only thing I do that's behind a paywall.
23:02
Speaker 1: And the quality is that good. I think it's it's
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Speaker 1: worth your time and worth your money. But I'm not
23:08
Speaker 1: doing this with the substat column, nor with with what
23:10
Speaker 1: we do here. And I, by the way, I appreciate
23:14
Speaker 1: my sponsors. They they are they are. That is how
23:17
Speaker 1: we continue to do this, do this for free. But
23:22
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about this for a few months actually now,
23:25
Speaker 1: and it started it. I've been I've been sort of
23:29
Speaker 1: down these European rabbit holes for a bit, right, and
23:33
Speaker 1: I think there's something happening here. I want to understand
23:35
Speaker 1: what we can learn from what's happening in some other
23:37
Speaker 1: democracies that and the question is are they a little
23:40
Speaker 1: bit ahead of where we are or are they lagging indicators? Right?
23:43
Speaker 1: Are they are they emulating where what we're doing, or
23:46
Speaker 1: are we emulating what they're doing, because for a long time,
23:50
Speaker 1: I think we all just sort of accepted the following
23:52
Speaker 1: us fact that it was America's democracy that made the
23:55
Speaker 1: weather for other democracies, that we exported the model campaigns,
24:01
Speaker 1: messaging consultants. In fact, if you were running a modern
24:04
Speaker 1: political campaign in Europe, you were probably borrowing the American playbook,
24:09
Speaker 1: if not alxhol actually hiring the people who wrote the playbook,
24:13
Speaker 1: that was the assumption. I'm not so sure that's true anymore.
24:18
Speaker 1: And in fact, I think in the last decade, really
24:21
Speaker 1: the last fifteen years, going back to about twenty eleven,
24:25
Speaker 1: the idea is totally flipped on its head because now
24:27
Speaker 1: when you look around, it doesn't feel like we're leading,
24:29
Speaker 1: that our democracy is sort of setting the table. It
24:32
Speaker 1: feels like we're dealing with, frankly, the same forces as
24:35
Speaker 1: everybody else's that were kind of all in the same place,
24:38
Speaker 1: all at the same time, and we're all reacting in
24:41
Speaker 1: similar ways. And that raises a simple question, are we
24:45
Speaker 1: still setting the trends or are we just living in them?
24:49
Speaker 1: And maybe here's a more uncomfortable question to consider. If
24:52
Speaker 1: these systems start to break down, what actually replaces them.
24:56
Speaker 1: Because here's the pattern that I think we're seeing in Hungary,
24:58
Speaker 1: and we saw a little bit in the UK. And
25:00
Speaker 1: I'll get to this. There's a pattern here, and it's
25:03
Speaker 1: not subtle. Globalization, right, disrupted job stability across the globe,
25:07
Speaker 1: especially in manufacturing. Migration increased across much of the developed world,
25:12
Speaker 1: our southern border, Mediterranean Sea, in Europe, there are competition
25:16
Speaker 1: for jobs, housing, it all intensified. And then there's the
25:19
Speaker 1: part that doesn't show up neatly in economic data, right,
25:23
Speaker 1: the sense that communities are changing faster than people feel
25:26
Speaker 1: like they can absorb. I think this is where the
25:29
Speaker 1: cultural conservatism has come in. Maybe call it cultural dislocation,
25:36
Speaker 1: call it anxiety, whatever you want to call it, but
25:38
Speaker 1: it's real and politically, it's produced the same outcome in
25:41
Speaker 1: country after country, right, a revolt against the establishment. We
25:48
Speaker 1: saw it with Brexit in the UK. We saw it
25:49
Speaker 1: here with Donald Trump in twenty seven sixteen. At the time,
25:53
Speaker 1: we treated those as separate events, different countries, different issues.
25:56
Speaker 1: Now they look like chapters in the same story. Right.
26:00
Speaker 1: So I want to start with the UK because this
26:03
Speaker 1: is where I think there's we should be paying close
26:06
Speaker 1: attention to. What's happening in the UK as well as
26:09
Speaker 1: what happened in Hunger. So here's what's happening in the
26:12
Speaker 1: UK right now and this should be setting off big
26:15
Speaker 1: time alarm bells in both party headquarters DNC and RNC.
26:20
Speaker 1: For decades, British politics has been simple Labor and the Tories,
26:24
Speaker 1: the Tories being the Conservative so Labor and the Conservatives
26:26
Speaker 1: back and forth. But what's happening now is not just
26:29
Speaker 1: dissatisfaction with one party, it's dissatisfaction with both at the
26:33
Speaker 1: same time and from both directions. Sound familiar. Polling right
26:39
Speaker 1: now in the UK shows that the combined vote share
26:41
Speaker 1: of the two quote unquote major parties, Liberals and the Tories,
26:46
Speaker 1: have dropped under forty percent, So more than sixty percent
26:49
Speaker 1: of the country is affiliates with a party not named
26:52
Speaker 1: Labor or the Tories. Think about that this was a
26:56
Speaker 1: system essentially built on those two parties, and then use certainly,
27:00
Speaker 1: looking at some of the modeling based on the polling
27:02
Speaker 1: we've seen, one recent projection suggests that if the UK
27:05
Speaker 1: had an election today, neither the Labor Party or the
27:08
Speaker 1: Conservative Party would be forming the government. It would be
27:13
Speaker 1: the Reform UK. The upstart Nigel Ferrars party that would
27:17
Speaker 1: win pretty close to a majority three hundred and twenty
27:21
Speaker 1: four seats, one seed short. At the same time, Labor,
27:24
Speaker 1: the current governing party, is projected to collapse to around
27:27
Speaker 1: one hundred seats if the election were held today. It's
27:29
Speaker 1: not going to be and here's the key. They're not
27:32
Speaker 1: just losing share on the right, losing share on the left.
27:36
Speaker 1: The Greens, not a very small minority party in the UK,
27:40
Speaker 1: would be projected to win seventy plus seats. So it's
27:43
Speaker 1: not a shift for either party. It's a squeeze both
27:46
Speaker 1: sides at the same time. And when that happens, systems
27:50
Speaker 1: don't gently adjust, they begin to wobble. Now let's go
27:55
Speaker 1: a step further. Let's go to Hungary, because this is
27:57
Speaker 1: where the wobble turned into something else. See had sixteen
28:01
Speaker 1: years of rule by one man, Victor Orbon. But in
28:05
Speaker 1: this case the system didn't diswabble. It broke Orbon has
28:08
Speaker 1: conceded defeat. I think that in and itself was a surprise.
28:13
Speaker 1: You have a Peter Magyar leading the Tiza party Tisza right,
28:19
Speaker 1: He's going to become Prime minister. This wasn't a gradual shift.
28:22
Speaker 1: It wasn't incremental. It was sudden and decisive turnout nearly
28:27
Speaker 1: eighty percent, one of the highest levels of turnout in
28:31
Speaker 1: post communists Hungary. This was not a protest vote. This
28:37
Speaker 1: was mass mobilization. This was a country deciding something. This
28:43
Speaker 1: was it enough of this shit? Essentially right. And here's
28:46
Speaker 1: the key. There was always a political opposition to Orbon.
28:50
Speaker 1: It existed for years, but they failed. What changed wasn't
28:55
Speaker 1: just the message, it was the messenger. Magyar wasn't an outsider.
29:00
Speaker 1: As an insider, he was part of the Orbon system.
29:03
Speaker 1: He actually married into the Orbon political orbit. He knew
29:08
Speaker 1: how it worked, and he could say I was part
29:10
Speaker 1: of this and it's not working. That matters because it
29:15
Speaker 1: gave voters supporters of Orbon, a permission slip to leave. Hey,
29:20
Speaker 1: I'm not the only one feeling this way. And once
29:22
Speaker 1: he could fuse the argument. And this is a big
29:25
Speaker 1: key here. And you know, democracy is roting, eroding, and
29:30
Speaker 1: the economy is suffering because of the erosion of democracy.
29:35
Speaker 1: Magyard connected those two right Democrats haven't been able to
29:38
Speaker 1: connect this yet. Maybe if they do, they can pull
29:40
Speaker 1: this off. And they haven't been able to Yet this
29:42
Speaker 1: was huge, and this is why it was such a
29:44
Speaker 1: resounding victory. He took democracy and the voters saw the
29:50
Speaker 1: democratic erosion as the why their economy sucked. The coalition
29:54
Speaker 1: didn't just grow, It flipped, right, it flipped. And you know,
30:03
Speaker 1: why should we take what happened in Hungary seriously? Because
30:05
Speaker 1: the Trump administration cared about what happened in Hungary. They
30:08
Speaker 1: certainly believe what happened in Hungary would matter here. That's
30:11
Speaker 1: why JD. Vance went over there to try to rescue Orbon.
30:14
Speaker 1: And boy, what a wasted mission that was. By the way,
30:19
Speaker 1: this is a quick aside, but when we've already are
30:22
Speaker 1: finding out right, apparently the Hungarian government was subsidizing Seapack, Well,
30:29
Speaker 1: who else are they subsidizing? How much government money did
30:34
Speaker 1: Victor Orbon give to various influencers who would come over
30:38
Speaker 1: and do these glowing profiles of him. Let's just say,
30:44
Speaker 1: if if you're one of those influencers who went to
30:48
Speaker 1: Hungary and played the game with Orbon and took whatever
30:52
Speaker 1: financial reward that came with it, I have a failing
30:56
Speaker 1: you're going to get exposed pretty soon. Just something to
30:59
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. Well, let's bring it back to
31:02
Speaker 1: the US, because the US version of this story looks
31:05
Speaker 1: pretty different, but it rhymes. For about twenty nine five
31:08
Speaker 1: years now, we've been stuck in this stalemate, right, I've
31:11
Speaker 1: been talking about it. Close elections, constant turnover, no resolution.
31:14
Speaker 1: The numbers pretty striking. We are seven straight presidential elections
31:18
Speaker 1: decided by roughly six and a half seven points or
31:22
Speaker 1: less twenty oh eight. I think the certified number was
31:27
Speaker 1: seven percentage points. You know, I always had it as
31:29
Speaker 1: six in my head, but it's seven. I double checked.
31:32
Speaker 1: But that's not normal. You have to go back to
31:33
Speaker 1: the Gilded Age eighteen seventy six and nineteen hundred to
31:37
Speaker 1: find a similar streak of seven straight presidential elections decided
31:41
Speaker 1: in this country by seven points or less. By the way,
31:46
Speaker 1: back in the Gilded Age, two of those where the
31:49
Speaker 1: electoral college didn't match the popular vote. Oh right, wait,
31:51
Speaker 1: we had two of those, two where the electoral college
31:54
Speaker 1: didn't match the popular vote. So we weren't just polarized.
31:58
Speaker 1: We're stuck, and history tells us something. Sometimes that doesn't resolve,
32:03
Speaker 1: sometimes it simply breaks. In the eighteen fifties, we were
32:05
Speaker 1: in a similar moment. The Whig Party couldn't adapt, it
32:08
Speaker 1: collapsed and the Republican Party they didn't emerge as a
32:11
Speaker 1: protest movement. It replaced one of the two parties entirely
32:15
Speaker 1: in six years. Founded in eighteen fifty four, wins the
32:18
Speaker 1: presidency by eighteen sixty. And here's the part that matters
32:22
Speaker 1: for today. Abraham Lincoln wasn't an outsider. He was a
32:25
Speaker 1: former Whig, a defector. Let's go back to Hungary. This
32:31
Speaker 1: is the part of the story I can't shake, and
32:32
Speaker 1: I think it's one we're thinking about because Hungry shows it,
32:35
Speaker 1: History shows it. The breakthrough doesn't come from outsiders. It
32:38
Speaker 1: comes from defectors, people who were inside the system and
32:42
Speaker 1: walk away from it. Because outsiders they have a hard
32:46
Speaker 1: time being credible in their criticism. Defectors can translate it.
32:49
Speaker 1: They can tell voters I know how this works, and
32:53
Speaker 1: I'm telling you it's not working. That's a different kind
32:55
Speaker 1: of credibility, and it does something critical. It gives those
32:58
Speaker 1: voters permission to lead the movement without feeling like they're
33:01
Speaker 1: jumping into the unknown or somehow being traders. So what
33:05
Speaker 1: does this look like here? Probably not a third party
33:09
Speaker 1: candidate out of nowhere. Probably not an outsider campaign built
33:12
Speaker 1: from scratch. But maybe it's someone who comes from inside
33:14
Speaker 1: one of the parties, has credibility already with the voters
33:17
Speaker 1: to a point, and breaks in a way that signals
33:19
Speaker 1: the system itself isn't working anymore. That's the pattern, not
33:23
Speaker 1: a prediction, but a vulnerability. Now, maybe none of this
33:27
Speaker 1: will translate. Maybe our system is too rigid, maybe the
33:29
Speaker 1: incentives are too strong to stay inside the two parties.
33:32
Speaker 1: Maybe one party figures it out. But if voters eventually decide,
33:36
Speaker 1: like they have so far in the first twenty five years,
33:38
Speaker 1: that they keep trying both options and neither one delivers,
33:41
Speaker 1: that's what we're seeing in the UK right now. They
33:43
Speaker 1: don't like either of the two major parties, so they're
33:46
Speaker 1: flirting with others. History suggests that change won't come from
33:50
Speaker 1: tweaking the system. It will come from replacing part of it.
33:54
Speaker 1: And if that moment comes, it may not be led
33:55
Speaker 1: by an outsider. It may be from somebody from inside
33:59
Speaker 1: of the parties just deciding to walk away, taking just
34:03
Speaker 1: enough voters with them to build something new. So that's
34:07
Speaker 1: one way I'm absorbing the Hungarian elections and absorbing what's
34:13
Speaker 1: happening in the UK, because what's happening here ain't happening
34:18
Speaker 1: in isolation? All right, with that, let's sneak a break
34:21
Speaker 1: when we come back. My conversation with Iowa Center candidate
34:24
Speaker 1: Zach Wabbs. This episode of the Chuck Toodcast is brought
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36:07
Speaker 1: I think that the state wide candidate from Iowa that
36:09
Speaker 1: I've interviewed in the last year, it is Zach Walls.
36:13
Speaker 1: He is a Are you still a state Senator, Zach?
36:17
Speaker 2: Or you formed the state Sure? I sure am? We
36:19
Speaker 2: actually start serving up from the state House. Yeah, this
36:22
Speaker 2: is my eighth and final year in the Iowa Senate.
36:25
Speaker 1: So this is so would this be the year you'd
36:27
Speaker 1: be running for reelection.
36:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. So yeah, the state Senate seat
36:32
Speaker 2: and the US Senate seat, same cycle here in twenty
36:36
Speaker 2: twenty six. So we're going to hold on to it.
36:38
Speaker 2: We got a good Democratic candidate and actually don't believe
36:41
Speaker 2: Republican has filed. But you're exciting things happening and say
36:45
Speaker 2: legislature too happy to chat about that.
36:47
Speaker 1: Well, look, let me just quickly give the one episode
36:50
Speaker 1: Zach Wall's running for the US Senate. This is the
36:52
Speaker 1: open Senate seat that Joany Arn't decided not to seek
36:58
Speaker 1: reelection in. It is a competitor if primary. You've had
37:01
Speaker 1: Josh Turick on the podcast a few months ago. I've
37:04
Speaker 1: also had the guy that's going to be leading the
37:06
Speaker 1: top of the Democratic ticket, Rob sand on here as well.
37:10
Speaker 1: Because a as people know who listened to me, you
37:14
Speaker 1: know that Iowa was one of my home states. I
37:16
Speaker 1: always joke I was not born and raised there, but
37:19
Speaker 1: I was raised iowaan. My first savings account was with
37:22
Speaker 1: the Waterloo Savings and Loan, yes when those existed. And
37:28
Speaker 1: I also believe that Iowa is the is the test
37:32
Speaker 1: is the Petrie dish for wave or not Democrats win
37:36
Speaker 1: multiple races in Iowa. We're in the middle of a wave.
37:40
Speaker 1: If not, I think it's a different situation. So that's
37:43
Speaker 1: another reason why I've spent some time with Iowa candidates.
37:46
Speaker 1: Zach Walls, Welcome to the podcast. One sweek.
37:48
Speaker 2: Good to be her.
37:49
Speaker 1: Kind of already chimed in because I asked you to,
37:52
Speaker 1: so anyway, it's all right, we don't form all around here.
37:56
Speaker 2: All good. Well, look, I'm excited to be here. You're
37:58
Speaker 2: absolutely right. We've got a lot cooking in Iowa. As
38:02
Speaker 2: you mentioned, my friend Rob sand running for governor. I
38:05
Speaker 2: think we've got a real chance at flipping that race,
38:08
Speaker 2: which is super exciting. We've got two and I think
38:12
Speaker 2: maybe a third and.
38:13
Speaker 1: Well I think it's three of the four.
38:15
Speaker 2: You want to talk waves territory. If we start seeing
38:18
Speaker 2: some good numbers out of Iowa four on election night,
38:21
Speaker 2: people forget this. You know, obviously, Steve King, I'm not buying.
38:26
Speaker 1: That opium that you're selling there.
38:27
Speaker 2: All I'm saying is about step and it was a
38:29
Speaker 2: unique case, but we came within a couple of points
38:31
Speaker 2: back in twenty eighteen, and I think you know what
38:34
Speaker 2: we always like to remind folks twenty eighteen first Trump midterm.
38:38
Speaker 2: I will won three of the four US House districts,
38:42
Speaker 2: we won three of the five state wide offices, and
38:45
Speaker 2: we came within spitting distance of flipping the governor's mansion
38:48
Speaker 2: that year. And we just did not have a Senate
38:50
Speaker 2: race on cycle in twenty eighteen, and so we got
38:53
Speaker 2: a really unique opportunity here. You did, of course mention
38:55
Speaker 2: Joan E. Earn strapping out. You know, she had, of
38:58
Speaker 2: course revealed her her healthcare plan of waiting for people
39:02
Speaker 2: to die in June, which it turns out was not
39:04
Speaker 2: a very popular position with most Iowa voters. And then
39:07
Speaker 2: when she dropped out in August, that was about a
39:09
Speaker 2: week after a poll came out showing me actually leading
39:12
Speaker 2: her in a general election matchup. And so we think
39:15
Speaker 2: there's a real opportunity here. And I'm happy to chat
39:18
Speaker 2: about my likely Republican opponent, Ashley Henson, too.
39:20
Speaker 1: I had a couple times, sure, I get that, look,
39:23
Speaker 1: you won't say this. It is not surprising to me
39:26
Speaker 1: that two people who were not supportive of Donald Trump
39:29
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four at the start of the presidential cycle,
39:31
Speaker 1: Kim Reynoldson Joni Earns, both somehow find their way not
39:35
Speaker 1: running again in twenty twenty six. I maybe time will
39:39
Speaker 1: tell how connected those two things were. But let me
39:42
Speaker 1: start with you. Look, you have you're pretty young, and
39:47
Speaker 1: yet you have been in the public eye for some time.
39:52
Speaker 1: And you went viral when you testified about your family
39:57
Speaker 1: when it looked like there was a movement in the
39:59
Speaker 1: state of Iowa to somehow make your family illegal and
40:06
Speaker 1: that did not happen. But you've been in the public
40:08
Speaker 1: eye for some time. Did you always know you were
40:10
Speaker 1: going to be in politics? Was there ever another lane
40:14
Speaker 1: you thought about going into when you were at the
40:18
Speaker 1: University of Iowa.
40:19
Speaker 2: So I was actually studying civil and environmental engineering. When
40:23
Speaker 2: I was at the University of i was going to
40:24
Speaker 2: go build bridges. Today were at the Ironworkers Local sixty
40:28
Speaker 2: seven hole here in Des Moines. I was really proud
40:31
Speaker 2: to win not just their endorsement, but they actually made
40:33
Speaker 2: me a member earlier this year, dues paying member. And
40:37
Speaker 2: so even though the work that I've done as an
40:40
Speaker 2: adult has definitely taken me in some different directions. Yeah,
40:44
Speaker 2: you know, when I was a sophomore in the video
40:46
Speaker 2: that speech went viral. You know, Look, no one ever
40:49
Speaker 2: wants to find themselves in the position of having to
40:53
Speaker 2: defend your family from you know, powerful people in the government.
40:57
Speaker 2: But when that was what I had to do, that
40:59
Speaker 2: was what I had to do. And I think part
41:01
Speaker 2: of that for Mecheck you asked about politics. You know,
41:03
Speaker 2: I learned at a pretty early age that politics was
41:06
Speaker 2: interested in me. I will never forget the experience. I
41:09
Speaker 2: was in the eighth grade and I am going to
41:11
Speaker 2: date myself a little bit here, but it was the
41:13
Speaker 2: two thousand and four election cycle, and my first homework
41:16
Speaker 2: assignment for my social studies class was to watch the
41:20
Speaker 2: speeches at the on TV of the two thousand and
41:23
Speaker 2: four Republican National Convention and then to go back to
41:26
Speaker 2: class the next day and to talk about it. And
41:29
Speaker 2: I will never forget what it was like watching some
41:33
Speaker 2: of the most powerful people in our country address the
41:37
Speaker 2: nation and talk about these raging wars in the Middle East,
41:40
Speaker 2: in Iraq and Afghanistan, the global war on terror, and
41:45
Speaker 2: then in the very next breath talk about the threat
41:48
Speaker 2: to our way of life from this radical state Supreme
41:50
Speaker 2: Court decision in Massachusetts and the so called gay marriage
41:54
Speaker 2: and realizing as a thirteen year old that they are
41:58
Speaker 2: talking about my family and going into class the next
42:03
Speaker 2: day wanting to speak up and set the record straight,
42:08
Speaker 2: but being scared, being scared of, you know, being judged
42:12
Speaker 2: by my peers, a target of our government, right. And
42:17
Speaker 2: when my courage you know, failed me that day, you
42:21
Speaker 2: know that shame has has stuck with me. And that
42:23
Speaker 2: was exactly why in twenty eleven, when I had the
42:26
Speaker 2: chance to do the thing that I did not have
42:29
Speaker 2: the courage to do seven years earlier, to go fight
42:31
Speaker 2: for my family, I knew I had to be there,
42:34
Speaker 2: and so I had no idea that someone was going
42:36
Speaker 2: to record it with the flip cam, or that the
42:38
Speaker 2: video was going to go viral, or that it would.
42:40
Speaker 1: We didn't. We didn't now planned when they go viral.
42:44
Speaker 1: Back then, there wasn't.
42:45
Speaker 2: There wasn't no, I mean, politically doesn't really go viral.
42:49
Speaker 2: At twenty eleven, that not nearly the same same way.
42:51
Speaker 2: I mean, it became remembering right, it was the most
42:54
Speaker 2: watched political video that year, and like the second place
42:58
Speaker 2: ad was like a like a Rick Perry thing, like
43:01
Speaker 2: I don't remember what exactly it was, but that was
43:03
Speaker 2: the some of the defence and like he's his jacket
43:08
Speaker 2: or I don't It's a long time ago, so I
43:10
Speaker 2: don't really remember, but yeah, you know, and I learned
43:12
Speaker 2: a lot from that experience, and most importantly that when
43:16
Speaker 2: you are able to find that courage to speak up
43:18
Speaker 2: and speak truth to power, it helps a lot of
43:20
Speaker 2: other people find courage too. I heard from so many
43:23
Speaker 2: people after that it made a difference in their family
43:25
Speaker 2: and their lives, and just learning that at an early
43:28
Speaker 2: age it was a big lesson.
43:30
Speaker 1: How concerned are you that your parents' rights are at
43:35
Speaker 1: stake again?
43:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I mean there's been a push by some
43:39
Speaker 2: of these far right groups trying to reverse essentially the
43:42
Speaker 2: Obergofell decision from twenty fifteen. And you know that's not
43:47
Speaker 2: just about same sex marriage. I mean they're clearly coming
43:50
Speaker 2: for reproductive rights. They see that as a piece of
43:54
Speaker 2: further eroding protections around IVF and fertility treatments, and so yeah,
44:00
Speaker 2: I look, I think it's absolutely a concern, and I
44:02
Speaker 2: think it's a part of why so many Americans have
44:05
Speaker 2: have you know, felt like, you know, they need someone
44:08
Speaker 2: who's willing to fight for them and their families. And
44:12
Speaker 2: in this campaign, you know, the issues that come up
44:13
Speaker 2: the most. We're on the campaign trail. Definitely the economy,
44:17
Speaker 2: but also the corruption that we see in Washington, the
44:20
Speaker 2: self dealing in this administration, and I think frustration frankly
44:24
Speaker 2: with the establishment of both parties that people have experienced
44:27
Speaker 2: for a long time, and it was part of why
44:28
Speaker 2: Donald Trump won in Iowa and consecutive elections. But I
44:33
Speaker 2: think the other thing that's a real concern is definitely,
44:36
Speaker 2: you know, fear for the future of our country and
44:37
Speaker 2: our democracy. We hear that all the time, and it's
44:41
Speaker 2: something that we need to take really seriously.
44:43
Speaker 1: I want to go back to and I remember a
44:47
Speaker 1: friend of mine would describe Iowa as the Oregon of
44:51
Speaker 1: the Midwest, and I said, what do you mean by that?
44:55
Speaker 1: And I and this person said, well, it's it's very Midwestern.
45:00
Speaker 1: You know, it's meaning that it is, you know, as
45:04
Speaker 1: the President might say, it's central casting right, like you know,
45:07
Speaker 1: the bridges are correct, the landscape is correct. It feels
45:11
Speaker 1: you know. Romney once said the trees are all the
45:14
Speaker 1: right height when he went to Michigan, you know, sort
45:15
Speaker 1: of like a but I understood what he meant. Right.
45:18
Speaker 1: You go to Iowa and you're like, yes, this is
45:20
Speaker 1: what bridges of Madison County was based on I get it,
45:23
Speaker 1: I see it, but there was It's not just Iowa
45:27
Speaker 1: nice that's there, but there really is a you keep
45:31
Speaker 1: to your business, we'll keep to our business type of mindset.
45:35
Speaker 1: Do you still think that exists? It feels like in
45:38
Speaker 1: parts of rural Iowa. And maybe this is an east
45:41
Speaker 1: west divide and that Eastern I was in one place,
45:44
Speaker 1: Western I was in another, or or maybe it's just
45:48
Speaker 1: the rhetoric that said, do you still feel that? Or
45:50
Speaker 1: do you think this threat to the rights of your parents,
45:58
Speaker 1: for instance, really is just more a bunch of activists,
46:02
Speaker 1: it's not actually what the average island thinks.
46:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great question, Todd. I think there's two
46:08
Speaker 2: sides of that coin. There's one side of the coin
46:11
Speaker 2: that is you take, you know, mind your own business.
46:15
Speaker 2: The other side of that coin is that you look
46:17
Speaker 2: out for each other. And I will tell you still
46:20
Speaker 2: see examples. I think of both of those things quite
46:23
Speaker 2: a bit. You know, in twenty eleven, far before marriage
46:26
Speaker 2: equality was a stleled issue, that resolution, that amendment to
46:31
Speaker 2: war State Constitution that I was speaking against. It did
46:34
Speaker 2: not right. And this was you know, four years still
46:38
Speaker 2: before the Oberga felt decision at the US Supreme Court,
46:41
Speaker 2: and today you look at the numbers are super clear.
46:44
Speaker 2: Vast majority of islands are still pro choice. Are people
46:48
Speaker 2: who again marriage equality no longer a controversial issue at
46:52
Speaker 2: all in the state of Iowa. In those things on
46:56
Speaker 2: the other side of the coin, you know, I had
46:57
Speaker 2: certainly seen our share of natural disasters. I remember in
47:01
Speaker 2: two thousand and eight going down to sandbag along the
47:04
Speaker 2: Iowa River as those floodwaters were rising. In twenty twenty,
47:08
Speaker 2: grabbing my chainsaw after a straight line windstorm decimated the
47:12
Speaker 2: community of Cedar Rapids and getting debris off the ground there.
47:18
Speaker 2: Flooding that continues to be a persistent challenge in other
47:21
Speaker 2: parts of the state. It is my first year in
47:23
Speaker 2: the letislature twenty nineteen. There were some really bad floods
47:26
Speaker 2: in western i over that year, and I will never
47:28
Speaker 2: forget going to the state House on my drive in
47:31
Speaker 2: one morning and there was a convoy. And now these
47:34
Speaker 2: are from Ohio, but it's that same Midwestern ethic you're
47:37
Speaker 2: talking about. Convoy of pickup trucks basically bringing hey to
47:43
Speaker 2: farmers who needed to feed their livestock and who had
47:45
Speaker 2: basically been wiped out and just taking care of each
47:48
Speaker 2: other and looking out for each other. And so when
47:50
Speaker 2: people sometimes ask, you know, like well, why has Donald
47:52
Speaker 2: Trump had success and Iowa for me, this is not theoretical.
47:55
Speaker 2: So when I won in twenty eighteen for my state
47:58
Speaker 2: Senate district, I had three counties, Johnson County, which is
48:01
Speaker 2: where I live, all of Cedar County, and then a
48:03
Speaker 2: slice of Musketine County. What Cedar and Musketine County have
48:06
Speaker 2: in common is they vote for Barack Obama in twenty
48:09
Speaker 2: twelve and Donald Trump in twenty sixteen. And I won
48:13
Speaker 2: all of Cedar County in twenty eighteen. So there are
48:15
Speaker 2: a lot of Obama Trump walls. Voters. Well, knock on
48:18
Speaker 2: doors and talk to these folks, you know, to learn about,
48:21
Speaker 2: you know, issues that they were worried about, concerns that
48:23
Speaker 2: they had. And then also if this came up, you know,
48:25
Speaker 2: you voted for Donald Trump two years ago, you're voting
48:27
Speaker 2: for me, Like what's going on? What people would usually
48:30
Speaker 2: say to me is basically, I don't agree with Donald
48:34
Speaker 2: Trump on every issue, but I believe that he cares
48:36
Speaker 2: about me in my community. I don't agree with you,
48:39
Speaker 2: Zach on every issue, but I believe that you care
48:41
Speaker 2: about me and my community, and I think that that
48:44
Speaker 2: is a thing that I would still really value. And
48:47
Speaker 2: I think that is something where you look at what
48:48
Speaker 2: is happening in the state right now, that is a
48:51
Speaker 2: very clear contrast with Ashley Hinson, who has been a
48:54
Speaker 2: rubber stamp for an agenda out of this White House
48:57
Speaker 2: that is almost uniquely bad for a state like Iowa. Well,
49:00
Speaker 2: let's so I think that's that's something that's worth worth
49:02
Speaker 2: it in.
49:03
Speaker 1: I want to dig in there a little bit because
49:04
Speaker 1: I I spent a lot of time in eastern Iowa
49:07
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three,
49:12
Speaker 1: I think it was twenty twenty three into this because
49:14
Speaker 1: I mean, look, there is no state home to more
49:17
Speaker 1: Obama to Trump counties than Iowa. You know, it's something
49:20
Speaker 1: I think half of all the counties in the.
49:22
Speaker 2: Country, it's only about a third. It's on about a third.
49:25
Speaker 1: Only a Third's still a lot for one state, you know,
49:28
Speaker 1: one state with four congressional districts. Right, A big chunk
49:32
Speaker 1: is in Eastern Iowa. Now, Eastern Iowa has always been
49:35
Speaker 1: the more labor union heavy part of the state. So
49:37
Speaker 1: this really is labor union members. You're you're with the
49:40
Speaker 1: iron workers, and the leadership of many of these labor
49:43
Speaker 1: unions are Democrats, and you know this full well. But
49:45
Speaker 1: the rank and file much more independent, right, some some Republicans,
49:50
Speaker 1: some Democrat, But they're frankly, I think, very skeptically in
49:54
Speaker 1: the same reason why they're in a union, because they're
49:57
Speaker 1: skeptical of corporations. I think they're a bit skeptical of
49:59
Speaker 1: politicians for the same way. And Trump, in some way,
50:05
Speaker 1: I think was more seemed to be more on the skeptic,
50:09
Speaker 1: you know, viewed, viewed some of these people the same
50:11
Speaker 1: way they did, right, versus Hillary Clinton, who felt like
50:14
Speaker 1: part of the establishment. But it is you know, this
50:19
Speaker 1: is this is persistent. How do you get that voter back?
50:24
Speaker 2: Well, so you get the nail on the head. So,
50:26
Speaker 2: I mean, I think there's a few things about Iowa
50:28
Speaker 2: that we always are trying to remind people of. Number One,
50:31
Speaker 2: when you look at those swing counties, those pivot counties,
50:34
Speaker 2: if I'm remembering correctly, there's thirty one of them, and
50:37
Speaker 2: twenty three are in Eastern Iowa and a slice of
50:41
Speaker 2: the other ones that are not Eastern Iowa kind of
50:42
Speaker 2: like North Iowa and north Central Iowa area. And so
50:46
Speaker 2: if you think about where the place is where we
50:48
Speaker 2: have lost ground, where we need to win people back,
50:51
Speaker 2: it is counties like Cedar County, which I represented for
50:54
Speaker 2: my first four years in the legislature. Went to a
50:57
Speaker 2: lot of town hall meetings. I was often the only
51:00
Speaker 2: Democrat on the panel right, you know, for legislative forums
51:04
Speaker 2: or updates, you know, knocked a ton of doors, been
51:08
Speaker 2: to cattleman's meetings and farm bureau meetings and board of
51:11
Speaker 2: supervisors and school boards. And again, what I hear in
51:15
Speaker 2: these communities is a sense of they feel like they've
51:17
Speaker 2: been forgotten, that the establishment has not been there to
51:20
Speaker 2: fight for them, even though they work hard, they played
51:23
Speaker 2: by the rules, and they just want a better future
51:25
Speaker 2: for their kids and their grandkids and not have to
51:28
Speaker 2: lose those kids, not usually to Miami in your case,
51:31
Speaker 2: but to places like Colorado or Minnesota or Illinois sometimes.
51:36
Speaker 2: And so that is something that I hear, and that
51:39
Speaker 2: really goes across the political spectrum. What Donald Trump did
51:43
Speaker 2: really effectively in twenty sixteen was talk about the failures
51:48
Speaker 2: of the establishment to build an economy that worked, especially
51:51
Speaker 2: in the Midwest. A lot of folks on the coasts
51:55
Speaker 2: did not realize that in twenty sixteen we were in
51:57
Speaker 2: the middle of a regional recession, you know, the most
52:01
Speaker 2: of twenty sixteen, right, And so I think the message
52:04
Speaker 2: that you know, then Secretary Clinton had just did not
52:07
Speaker 2: feel like it really resonated with a lot of people here.
52:09
Speaker 2: And if you look at the people who have one
52:10
Speaker 2: in Iowa, including her husband, Bill Clinton, who ran on
52:13
Speaker 2: an anti establishment message in the nineteen nineties, you look
52:16
Speaker 2: at Barack Obama's success in two thousand and eight and
52:18
Speaker 2: twenty twelve, and then of course Donald Trump in some
52:20
Speaker 2: respects epitomizes this anti establishment message because he was running
52:24
Speaker 2: not just against the Democratic establishment, he was also running
52:27
Speaker 2: against the Republican establishment. I mean, you remember him being
52:30
Speaker 2: on that debate stage attacking the other Republicans who were there,
52:33
Speaker 2: attacking George W. Bush and others. And I think in
52:37
Speaker 2: John McCain famously, I think that that you know, approach,
52:41
Speaker 2: that mentality from Trump spoke to a lot of those
52:44
Speaker 2: same kind of swing anti establishment minded voters. And as
52:47
Speaker 2: we have been traveling across the state, I will tell
52:49
Speaker 2: you there are still a lot of real frustration with
52:52
Speaker 2: the establishment you see what's currently happening in our economy.
52:55
Speaker 2: You see the lack of progress and things like campaign
52:57
Speaker 2: finance reform, and those are things that voters. You may
53:00
Speaker 2: not be able to explain all the ins and outs
53:02
Speaker 2: of exactly the problems with a super pac or a
53:05
Speaker 2: C four or whatever, but they know that the system
53:08
Speaker 2: has been rigged against them. And that's actually why today
53:11
Speaker 2: we did our first major policy roll out, and it's
53:13
Speaker 2: all about ending that rig system, taking on the corruption,
53:17
Speaker 2: and speaking directly to the concerns that voters have because
53:19
Speaker 2: they understand there's a connection to what has happened in
53:22
Speaker 2: our politics and what is happening in our economy.
53:24
Speaker 1: Right, I'm ask you this, So, why are you doing
53:25
Speaker 1: this as a Democrat? Why not do what Dan Osborne's
53:28
Speaker 1: doing in your neighbors in neighboring state and Nebraska run
53:31
Speaker 1: as an independent? I mean I asked this question of
53:33
Speaker 1: Rob sam early on and he basically said the only
53:39
Speaker 1: reason he wasn't running is an independent is ballot access
53:43
Speaker 1: and that maybe he would be more comfortable as being
53:45
Speaker 1: able as an independent, not because you get put in
53:47
Speaker 1: a partisan box and no matter what you say here,
53:51
Speaker 1: it's vote counting. Once you get into a legislature. You
53:53
Speaker 1: know this, you were in leadership. You know what you'd
53:57
Speaker 1: like to do and what you can do are two
53:58
Speaker 1: different things. And you know what is it the old
54:01
Speaker 1: saying you campaign and poetry and govern and pros right?
54:05
Speaker 1: It is? It ain't it ain't easy translating a change
54:10
Speaker 1: message to a change agenda.
54:12
Speaker 2: Well, Chuck, here's what I would tell you. I've been
54:14
Speaker 2: a Democrat my whole life. You know, in two thousand
54:17
Speaker 2: and four, I remember being that scared kid. Did not
54:21
Speaker 2: see somebody, you know, fighting back against the threats that
54:25
Speaker 2: I could see to my family. And look, I didn't
54:27
Speaker 2: totally understand like that this wasn't a debate, right, these
54:30
Speaker 2: are conventions and not debates, and like so I didn't
54:33
Speaker 2: really understand, like why there wasn't a response or whatever.
54:35
Speaker 2: And like, I understand that whole thing now better. But
54:37
Speaker 2: what I will tell you is that since the New Deal,
54:39
Speaker 2: this has been the party that has fought for workers' rights,
54:42
Speaker 2: has fought for civil rights, has fought for women's rights.
54:44
Speaker 2: That is who we are as a party. And I
54:47
Speaker 2: think the more focused we are at getting back to
54:50
Speaker 2: those core values of what makes the Democratic Party the
54:54
Speaker 2: Democratic Party, the faster, we are going to be able
54:58
Speaker 2: to rebuild trust with voters who we have lost. And
55:00
Speaker 2: that was part of why Chuck. When we launched this
55:02
Speaker 2: campaign and I was asked point blank, would you support
55:04
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer for leader? I said no because Senator Schumer
55:07
Speaker 2: is someone who has said on television that it is
55:10
Speaker 2: fine if our party writes off rural voters and blue
55:13
Speaker 2: collar voters, because for each one of those votes we lose,
55:16
Speaker 2: we'll pick up two more in the suburbs. And like
55:18
Speaker 2: that math might work in New York, even though I'm
55:20
Speaker 2: not really sure it does, it definitely does not work
55:22
Speaker 2: in Iowa. And frankly, that is not the Democratic Party
55:25
Speaker 2: that I want to belong to.
55:28
Speaker 1: Rural America.
55:29
Speaker 2: No, absolutely not. And and and again. Then you know,
55:33
Speaker 2: some people wonderable, like why are Democrats losing ground in
55:35
Speaker 2: rural places like Iowa? You know, I mean, like to me, right,
55:41
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's it's it's pretty straightforward. And so
55:44
Speaker 2: you know, I did not hesitate to call for new
55:47
Speaker 2: leadership in the party. Now that's not always easy. I
55:50
Speaker 2: think it is, uh, you know, directly tied to the
55:52
Speaker 2: fact that there's now millions of dollars from a Chuck
55:55
Speaker 2: Schumer link super pac spending against me in this race.
55:59
Speaker 2: But it doesn't change the core conviction that I have,
56:02
Speaker 2: which is that there are so many Iowa families who
56:05
Speaker 2: feel failed by an establishment who if you have an
56:09
Speaker 2: economy that again, it's working great for the billionaires, for
56:12
Speaker 2: the big corporations, but so many working class, middle class
56:15
Speaker 2: retired on islands cannot make ends meet. And there is
56:19
Speaker 2: a deep understanding that what is happening in our economy
56:23
Speaker 2: is directly tied to the brokenness of our politics, and
56:25
Speaker 2: so we need new leaders, we need new vision, and
56:28
Speaker 2: that is what this campaign is all about.
56:39
Speaker 1: I'll tell you one thing that you hear pop up,
56:41
Speaker 1: and sometimes it's an excuse from somebody who wants to
56:44
Speaker 1: claim they're middle of the road, and there really aren't.
56:47
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean what they say isn't a valid point.
56:51
Speaker 1: And the point would be the problem is Democrats worry
56:56
Speaker 1: too much about the identity of others and not my pocketbook,
57:00
Speaker 1: that when they get to Washington, they're worried about trans issues.
57:03
Speaker 1: They're not worried about how we're going to make ends
57:07
Speaker 1: meet and how we're going to bring back manufacturing. And
57:09
Speaker 1: I know that it's easy to say and on all
57:12
Speaker 1: these things, but you know how it gets. I mean, look,
57:15
Speaker 1: Kamala Harry's got put in a box on this and
57:17
Speaker 1: they couldn't get out of it. On these cultural issues,
57:20
Speaker 1: how do you avoid it?
57:22
Speaker 2: So I think it's really important to understand that the
57:25
Speaker 2: progress of what happens are in our economy and our
57:29
Speaker 2: progress on questions around civil rights or social issues, those
57:33
Speaker 2: often go hand in hand, right, People I think, generally speaking,
57:36
Speaker 2: in my experience, are much more open to thinking about
57:40
Speaker 2: new ideas on civil rights or social progress or whatever
57:43
Speaker 2: the question is if they feel economically secure themselves, their kids,
57:49
Speaker 2: their grandkids. I don't think it's a coincidence that you saw,
57:52
Speaker 2: you know, obviously a massive expansion of the middle class
57:54
Speaker 2: in the post war period, and simultaneously you saw significant
57:58
Speaker 2: progress on civil rights. And I think that when Democrats
58:02
Speaker 2: lead with a focus on ensuring that we have an
58:04
Speaker 2: economy that works for everybody and not just people at
58:07
Speaker 2: the very top, and people feel economically secure, they tend
58:10
Speaker 2: to be more open to that social change. When they
58:15
Speaker 2: see democrats trying to advocate only for social change without
58:19
Speaker 2: addressing enough what is happening in the economy. It's like, well, wait,
58:22
Speaker 2: hold on, I don't necessarily have a problem over here,
58:25
Speaker 2: but I'm struggling right now, and you've got to fix
58:28
Speaker 2: this first before we start worrying about these other things
58:31
Speaker 2: over there. Now, what I will say is I don't
58:34
Speaker 2: believe that we should be throwing people under the bus
58:37
Speaker 2: or anything like that. What I do think we need
58:39
Speaker 2: to do as a party is be much more concrete,
58:42
Speaker 2: and we talk about building an economy that works for
58:44
Speaker 2: working class, middle class, for tired people, having clear ideas
58:48
Speaker 2: about how we challenge corporate power and corporate greed. We
58:51
Speaker 2: see the massive wealth and income and equality in this
58:54
Speaker 2: country that is a threat, Frankly, I think to our
58:57
Speaker 2: democracy and certainly to the future of future generations, and
59:02
Speaker 2: I think that has to be the number one priority
59:04
Speaker 2: that we are focused on. And the reason why we
59:06
Speaker 2: rolled out this the anti corruption agenda today is because
59:09
Speaker 2: to build that economy that works for us, you have
59:11
Speaker 2: to start by going at the heart of the corruption
59:14
Speaker 2: of big money, special interest money, dark money in our politics.
59:18
Speaker 2: And I'll tell you, Chuck, I have seen the impact
59:21
Speaker 2: of that influence firsthand in the IOA Stay Legislature. My
59:25
Speaker 2: very first year is twenty nineteen. There were these large
59:28
Speaker 2: data state companies that came into IOA started purchasing mobile
59:32
Speaker 2: home communities, trailer parks, and then jacking up the monthly
59:36
Speaker 2: lot rent in those communities. So you own the trailer,
59:38
Speaker 2: but you have to pay a monthly rent to say,
59:41
Speaker 2: in that community. Exactly. Yeah, these companies were increasing the
59:47
Speaker 2: costs in these community They were buying it by fifty percent,
59:50
Speaker 2: sixty percent, seventy percent in some cases from one month
59:53
Speaker 2: to the next. And this one company from Utah buys
59:55
Speaker 2: three parks in my district, proposing these massive increases. I
59:59
Speaker 2: was absolutely outraged by what I heard from my constituents.
1:00:02
Speaker 2: And so, you know, in might sound old fashioned, I
1:00:04
Speaker 2: went to my Republican colleagues in the state Senate and
1:00:07
Speaker 2: I said, look, I know that I just got here.
1:00:09
Speaker 2: I know that we don't agree on every single issue,
1:00:11
Speaker 2: but you cannot tell me that this is a question
1:00:14
Speaker 2: of left versus right, or this is right versus wrong right.
1:00:17
Speaker 2: And so we actually got a Byparson group together we
1:00:20
Speaker 2: hammered out a compromise that we could all agree on
1:00:22
Speaker 2: that gave my constituents and islands all over our state
1:00:26
Speaker 2: real protections under Iowa law. We passed that bill through
1:00:29
Speaker 2: the IO was Senate forty eight to zero. We sent
1:00:33
Speaker 2: it over to the House of Representatives. I was told
1:00:36
Speaker 2: this is a done deal. Who would possibly vote.
1:00:37
Speaker 1: Against this NANIMUS Senate. Yeah.
1:00:39
Speaker 2: Two days later, get called over for a closed door
1:00:42
Speaker 2: meeting and I will never forget this. Go into that meeting.
1:00:45
Speaker 2: There's a conference table with on one side of the
1:00:48
Speaker 2: table a Republican representative who was sympathetic to what we
1:00:50
Speaker 2: were trying to do. On the other side of the
1:00:52
Speaker 2: table was the lobbyist representing those big companies, and he's
1:00:56
Speaker 2: kind of smirking at me because sitting next to him
1:00:58
Speaker 2: holding my bill her head was then state representative, now congresswoman,
1:01:05
Speaker 2: now my Republican opponent for this US Senate race, Ashley
1:01:09
Speaker 2: Hinson and Chuck I was in the room and I
1:01:12
Speaker 2: watched as she killed my bipartisan bill as a favor
1:01:15
Speaker 2: to that lobbyist, who I found out later had bundled
1:01:18
Speaker 2: some money for her reelection campaign, and who I found
1:01:21
Speaker 2: out after that was representing some of those donors who
1:01:24
Speaker 2: would go on to become big supporters of her campaign
1:01:27
Speaker 2: for the US House. So when we talk about this
1:01:30
Speaker 2: connection between what is happening in our economy and what
1:01:33
Speaker 2: has happened to our politics. I have seen it with
1:01:35
Speaker 2: my own eyes.
1:01:37
Speaker 1: It's one of the better story that's one of the
1:01:39
Speaker 1: better narratives I've heard, because I think this is the
1:01:41
Speaker 1: hard thing about I mean, the amount of people in
1:01:47
Speaker 1: my world that I have suddenly brought up campaign finance
1:01:51
Speaker 1: reformed to me, and I'm tucking people on the right
1:01:55
Speaker 1: like that I'm hearing from that. I never would have thought.
1:01:58
Speaker 1: I'm very friendly with the former govern Nerve Ohio on
1:02:00
Speaker 1: John Kaisak lately and he goes man, we got to
1:02:02
Speaker 1: have campaign finals reform. I said, oh, glad to know
1:02:05
Speaker 1: that you're here here now. You know, it's given him
1:02:07
Speaker 1: a little grief about it. But I think it's we
1:02:10
Speaker 1: somehow we got too ub scene really quickly.
1:02:13
Speaker 2: Right.
1:02:13
Speaker 1: There was always this, Yeah, there's always money in politics.
1:02:16
Speaker 1: Yeah it's the mother's milk. But we are at we
1:02:19
Speaker 1: are at this sort of astronomical level. And you know,
1:02:23
Speaker 1: I've always said the the the least corrupt institution legislature
1:02:27
Speaker 1: in the country's Congress, because there's a lot of liballs
1:02:30
Speaker 1: on it, and the further down you go on the
1:02:33
Speaker 1: legislative food chain, the more likely you're going to see
1:02:35
Speaker 1: whether it's a city council and zoning laws getting bought
1:02:39
Speaker 1: or it's a legislature the scene you just described, because
1:02:43
Speaker 1: we don't have a lot of watchdogs right at the
1:02:45
Speaker 1: state legislative and at the local level the way we
1:02:47
Speaker 1: used to. But here's your problem. The courts have said
1:02:53
Speaker 1: money a speech, what do you do we amend the
1:02:56
Speaker 1: constam looked like, yep, yeah, so yo. You know, the
1:03:00
Speaker 1: Supreme Court has said what it has said. I think
1:03:02
Speaker 1: that was a bad decision. But if that's what it takes,
1:03:05
Speaker 1: then by god, that is exactly what I skinned. What
1:03:07
Speaker 1: does this look like? What does a constitutional amendment on
1:03:11
Speaker 1: campaign money? Is it about disclosure? Is it about limits?
1:03:16
Speaker 1: So I think it's about both.
1:03:17
Speaker 2: So you have the super PACs that can take unlimited
1:03:19
Speaker 2: amounts of money, and then you have the dark money groups,
1:03:22
Speaker 2: the five on one c fours that can take anonymous money,
1:03:25
Speaker 2: and then the c fours can spend money on the
1:03:27
Speaker 2: super PACs. I don't know if you remember, actually just
1:03:29
Speaker 2: watched this again recently because we were working on this
1:03:31
Speaker 2: anti corruption plan that we released today, And if anyone
1:03:35
Speaker 2: wants to check that out. It's on our sub stack,
1:03:37
Speaker 2: and I think you can go to my website at
1:03:38
Speaker 2: zach Walls dot com slash plan and we're going to
1:03:41
Speaker 2: be rolling out all of the various pieces there. But
1:03:44
Speaker 2: you So I went back and I watched them the
1:03:46
Speaker 2: Stephen Colbert from the Colbert Rapport when they started Steven's
1:03:49
Speaker 2: super Pac and then Stephen's Shell Corporation with the C
1:03:52
Speaker 2: four stuff. I mean, it is it is outrageous what
1:03:56
Speaker 2: is possible and what is currently happening. And I think
1:03:59
Speaker 2: it is really important to understand that the corruption that
1:04:03
Speaker 2: we are seeing, the influence that we are seeing now, Look,
1:04:06
Speaker 2: it's not always as transparent as you know, a bribe
1:04:09
Speaker 2: that is taking place right that you see in some places,
1:04:12
Speaker 2: but you you definitely do see effects of you know,
1:04:16
Speaker 2: that money shaping the outcome of elections. You see it
1:04:18
Speaker 2: shaping the outcome of primaries. Is I just mentioned there's
1:04:21
Speaker 2: millions of dollars being spent in our primary and actually
1:04:24
Speaker 2: just yesterday a Republican super pac announced that they are
1:04:28
Speaker 2: going to be spending twenty nine million dollars on television
1:04:32
Speaker 2: in the state of Iowa in November, which I actually
1:04:35
Speaker 2: think is a very good sign in terms of the
1:04:37
Speaker 2: fact that this race is very much implate.
1:04:39
Speaker 1: It's on the radar. But are you going to accept
1:04:43
Speaker 1: money from the Democratic super pac if you're the nominee?
1:04:46
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, look, here's what I would say
1:04:48
Speaker 1: to tell them to stay out.
1:04:50
Speaker 2: I from my perspective, I think that you're going to
1:04:52
Speaker 2: see massive spending on this offside. This is the super PACs, right,
1:04:56
Speaker 2: You're going to spending on the hard side. When you
1:04:58
Speaker 2: look at our campaign talking about like right now, we
1:05:02
Speaker 2: have raised more money than anybody else. We have done
1:05:05
Speaker 2: it without taking a dime of corporate pack money. We
1:05:08
Speaker 2: have done it by talking to individuals and people are
1:05:10
Speaker 2: really resonating with this message, not just on the campaign
1:05:13
Speaker 2: contribution side, but on the political piece as well. So
1:05:16
Speaker 2: this is a fun little story. My campaign was the
1:05:18
Speaker 2: first one to receive a grassroots contribution from iolands in
1:05:22
Speaker 2: all ninety nine counties. Our ninety ninth county was Wright
1:05:25
Speaker 2: County wrighd Up in North Iowa, not a Democratic county.
1:05:31
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a county that Trump carried by
1:05:33
Speaker 2: almost forty points in twenty twenty four. Twenty five bucks
1:05:36
Speaker 2: from a guy named Gary. Gary's a retired small town
1:05:39
Speaker 2: lawyer and president of his local school board, Vietnam veteran,
1:05:44
Speaker 2: and Gary's a registered Republican. And when Gary got us
1:05:46
Speaker 2: to magic number ninety nine, I called him up. I
1:05:49
Speaker 2: got to know him a little bit. We did not
1:05:50
Speaker 2: have a relationship before he chipped into the race and
1:05:52
Speaker 2: he got us to this milestone. But what Gary told
1:05:55
Speaker 2: me was that he, you know, first of all, he
1:05:58
Speaker 2: really appreciated my stance of public education president of his
1:06:00
Speaker 2: local school board. That matters a lot to him, and
1:06:03
Speaker 2: I'm a strong supporter of public schools. And what Gary
1:06:06
Speaker 2: also said was that he loves seeing a young person
1:06:08
Speaker 2: step up. You mentioned my age at the beginning. I'm
1:06:10
Speaker 2: thirty four years old to be thirty five on the
1:06:12
Speaker 2: election day, which is old enough to run for the
1:06:14
Speaker 2: US Enate. We did double check the constitution, but Gary
1:06:17
Speaker 2: also loved clear well that separate story feel on that one.
1:06:22
Speaker 2: But Gary loved our anti corruption message. And so when
1:06:26
Speaker 2: we turned into our nominating petitions to get on the
1:06:28
Speaker 2: ballot here in Iowa a few weeks ago, state lasses
1:06:32
Speaker 2: you need to have thirty five hundred signatures. We had
1:06:34
Speaker 2: ten thousand, and you'd have nineteen counties with one hundred
1:06:37
Speaker 2: signatures or more. We had thirty one, and because of
1:06:42
Speaker 2: Gary and his wife, Susan Wright County, we had one
1:06:45
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy four signatures. We literally have not been
1:06:48
Speaker 2: able to figure out the last time that a Democratic
1:06:50
Speaker 2: candidate for the US Senate had more than one hundred
1:06:53
Speaker 2: signatures from Wright County. By the way, you did mention Rob,
1:06:56
Speaker 2: so I will say we had more signatures from Right
1:06:57
Speaker 2: County than Rob Sanded. Not that it's a contact, but
1:07:01
Speaker 2: that was something to me. When we talk about this
1:07:03
Speaker 2: message resonating with the voters like Gary who we need
1:07:06
Speaker 2: to win in November in order to defet Ashley Hinson,
1:07:09
Speaker 2: I'm telling you that is something that is resonating.
1:07:13
Speaker 1: But here's the trap that campaign funding rhetoric gets gets
1:07:17
Speaker 1: set sometimes, and it may be an unfair trap, which
1:07:20
Speaker 1: is you don't like it, but you know that this
1:07:24
Speaker 1: is the way. You know the old saying you can't
1:07:26
Speaker 1: go to you can't come armed with a knife to
1:07:30
Speaker 1: a gunfight. And you just mentioned all the money that's
1:07:33
Speaker 1: going to be I mean, are you if you get
1:07:36
Speaker 1: this nomination, do you think Chuck Schumer super pack is
1:07:39
Speaker 1: suddenly not going to be interested in helping you? Maybe
1:07:41
Speaker 1: he will, do you tell them, I mean, not to
1:07:44
Speaker 1: be involved, or do you accept the premise that this
1:07:47
Speaker 1: is the way the system works now and you're going
1:07:50
Speaker 1: to get there's super pac money all over the place, left,
1:07:53
Speaker 1: right and center, you know, I mean, look at the
1:07:55
Speaker 1: state of Illinois. The progressives had super packs on their back,
1:07:58
Speaker 1: the you know, crypto people, the AI people, they come
1:08:02
Speaker 1: in all shapes and sizes. They support progressives, they support centrists. Right, Yeah,
1:08:08
Speaker 1: so Chuck got the question. Yeah, here's what I would
1:08:11
Speaker 1: tell you. I'm sure that there may be outside interests
1:08:14
Speaker 1: in you know, our race. We're coming into the general
1:08:17
Speaker 1: election in November, I think, because this is going to
1:08:19
Speaker 1: be one of the most competitive US and races in America,
1:08:22
Speaker 1: and there's a very good chance. So this is fifty
1:08:24
Speaker 1: one in a potential majority.
1:08:28
Speaker 2: And what I would tell you is, if outside groups
1:08:30
Speaker 2: get involved, you know, that's their decision. It will have
1:08:34
Speaker 2: zero impact on my belief that we have to change
1:08:37
Speaker 2: the system, and it will not change the fact that
1:08:39
Speaker 2: my first day as a United States Senator, I will
1:08:41
Speaker 2: co sponsor an amendment to our Constitution to overturn Citizens United,
1:08:45
Speaker 2: get dark money out of our politics, get corporate money
1:08:47
Speaker 2: out of our politics and get super packs out of
1:08:50
Speaker 2: our politics. That has to change. And you're totally right
1:08:53
Speaker 2: that there are both sides that are using these different vehicles,
1:08:57
Speaker 2: and that fact being what it is, it will change
1:09:00
Speaker 2: in any way, shape or form. The fact that this
1:09:02
Speaker 2: is a core belief that I have. It is a
1:09:03
Speaker 2: belief that I'm running on, and I believe it is
1:09:06
Speaker 2: the first step to actually reversing what is happening in
1:09:09
Speaker 2: our economy so we can actually build an economy that
1:09:11
Speaker 2: works for everyday people, because those are the people that
1:09:14
Speaker 2: I'm here to represent, not super PACs, not billionaire donors.
1:09:17
Speaker 2: I'm here to fight from my constituents the same way
1:09:19
Speaker 2: that I did. Is that you know, freshman state senator,
1:09:22
Speaker 2: fighting for my folks who lived in those communities. And
1:09:24
Speaker 2: by the way, again, i'd give a ra ass ass
1:09:27
Speaker 2: if they were Regie Republicans, independence Democrats. They were my
1:09:29
Speaker 2: people and they needed a champion. And I remember being
1:09:32
Speaker 2: that scared eighth grader wishing that there'd been somebody fighting
1:09:34
Speaker 2: for me. That's exactly what we're going to do with
1:09:36
Speaker 2: the US Senate.
1:09:37
Speaker 1: Hey tell me about your stint as a legislative leader.
1:09:42
Speaker 1: It seems as if that wasn't the best ending? And
1:09:47
Speaker 1: what did you learn? I mean, I look at it.
1:09:50
Speaker 1: I look at the edit as a it's tough to
1:09:53
Speaker 1: be the change agent and then like all of a sudden,
1:09:56
Speaker 1: you're hurting the cats. It's tough to do both. What
1:10:01
Speaker 1: did you learn from it? And how will it change?
1:10:05
Speaker 1: Let's assume you're elected US senator. How will it change?
1:10:08
Speaker 1: How is it going to change how you behave as
1:10:10
Speaker 1: a US senator, how you interact with you what? What
1:10:13
Speaker 1: did you take away from that experience that will color
1:10:16
Speaker 1: how you go go forward?
1:10:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, So for folks who are listening or tuning in,
1:10:21
Speaker 2: what have you like? It was not something So I
1:10:23
Speaker 2: was the Senate Minority leader for two and a half years,
1:10:26
Speaker 2: three legislative sessions. It was not something that I ever
1:10:28
Speaker 2: thought I would do. Uh. The woman who had been
1:10:31
Speaker 2: the leader when I was elected decided halfway through my
1:10:35
Speaker 2: first term two years in that she did not want
1:10:39
Speaker 2: to be in that position anymore. Uh, for reasons that
1:10:42
Speaker 2: I began.
1:10:42
Speaker 1: Let me, let me, let me it sucks to be
1:10:45
Speaker 1: in the leadership in the minority. I don't care what
1:10:47
Speaker 1: legislature later in. So, Uh, the empathy I totally get
1:10:52
Speaker 1: nobody's had one hand. Being in the minority, you get
1:10:55
Speaker 1: to just throw spitballs, that's true, But when you're the
1:10:57
Speaker 1: leader in the minority, there's this weird expectation that you
1:11:00
Speaker 1: can somehow get stuff done, and then you have to
1:11:03
Speaker 1: remind everybody we're in the minorities. But anyway, so so.
1:11:06
Speaker 2: So, I mean a few thoughts on that. So so,
1:11:08
Speaker 2: it was not something I ever thought I would do,
1:11:10
Speaker 2: not something that I coveted. Right people in the caucus
1:11:13
Speaker 2: came to me and asked me to do this when
1:11:17
Speaker 2: the former leader decided she did not want the position anymore.
1:11:20
Speaker 2: You know, I have you know, I saw firsthand, you know,
1:11:25
Speaker 2: the experience or you know that she had had. But
1:11:27
Speaker 2: I knew this was not going to be easy. But
1:11:29
Speaker 2: it was like, look, you know, I'm young, I want
1:11:31
Speaker 2: to work hard. Had success as a fundraiser. I represented
1:11:35
Speaker 2: a district that had pivot counties in it. So I
1:11:37
Speaker 2: think I knew had a good ability to communicate with
1:11:40
Speaker 2: voters who we needed to win back, and so signed
1:11:45
Speaker 2: up to do it. And I will tell you, Chuck,
1:11:47
Speaker 2: I was a little surprised at what I discovered when
1:11:49
Speaker 2: I became the leader. This sold will Rogers line that
1:11:53
Speaker 2: I'm not a member of an organized political party. I'm
1:11:55
Speaker 2: a Democrat, and I became.
1:11:58
Speaker 1: Under stood what that meant, right, Yeah, I mean like
1:12:01
Speaker 1: and like, look, you know you're the line or not,
1:12:03
Speaker 1: but you're like, what does that really mean?
1:12:05
Speaker 2: I was a part time legislature so you know, people
1:12:08
Speaker 2: fuck and set their expectations appropriately, but being a caucus
1:12:11
Speaker 2: leader is not a part time job. But just the
1:12:13
Speaker 2: level of this organization that I saw, you know, we
1:12:16
Speaker 2: did not have like a clear strategic plan to get
1:12:19
Speaker 2: back to the majority. A lot of the staff who
1:12:22
Speaker 2: I was now overseeing, you know, and again I was
1:12:24
Speaker 2: like twenty seven, twenty eight years old, like didn't have
1:12:28
Speaker 2: job descriptions, didn't have clear goals, didn't see kind of
1:12:31
Speaker 2: how we all fit into this bigger picture, and so
1:12:34
Speaker 2: like a lot of what we were trying to do
1:12:35
Speaker 2: in the very beginning, which is like getting this might
1:12:37
Speaker 2: sound basic, but like clarity of of like what are
1:12:40
Speaker 2: we trying to do here, what's the vision, what are
1:12:42
Speaker 2: the goals, what's the message it's going to get us there?
1:12:44
Speaker 2: And then literally building, rebuilding the infrastructure, rebuilding relationships with labor.
1:12:50
Speaker 2: I mean you mentioned that earlier as a place of
1:12:52
Speaker 2: where we've had some weakness. And one of the things
1:12:54
Speaker 2: that I learned very quickly my time in that leadership
1:12:56
Speaker 2: role was that the experience for a lot of the
1:12:58
Speaker 2: labor leaders, who to your point, most of them are
1:13:01
Speaker 2: still Democratic, but they really felt like the Democratic Party,
1:13:04
Speaker 2: you know, in our state had not done a good
1:13:06
Speaker 2: job of fighting for them, of showing up for them,
1:13:09
Speaker 2: being there supporting them, you know, and like I didn't
1:13:12
Speaker 2: have good access to lists of people who I should
1:13:14
Speaker 2: be reaching out to, events that I should be going to.
1:13:16
Speaker 2: I mean this, and again, this is all really basic stuff,
1:13:19
Speaker 2: but at a certain level, that's kind of what politics is, right.
1:13:22
Speaker 2: It is all really about organizing and showing up and
1:13:25
Speaker 2: connecting with people and meeting people where they are. And
1:13:28
Speaker 2: so that was something that I made a real point
1:13:29
Speaker 2: of emphasis. And you know, as a result of that,
1:13:32
Speaker 2: I think there have been some national observers who have
1:13:34
Speaker 2: been like, oh, I thought Walls was the gay rights guy, Like,
1:13:37
Speaker 2: why does he have a lot of labor support, And
1:13:40
Speaker 2: it's just because I grew up in a labor household.
1:13:42
Speaker 2: My mom, Jackie, was a union nurse. That union contract
1:13:45
Speaker 2: was incredibly important for us. When my mother, mom Terry
1:13:48
Speaker 2: was diagnosed with MS and going through a really, really
1:13:51
Speaker 2: hard time with her disease. So I learned it at
1:13:53
Speaker 2: an early age the difference that labor made for us
1:13:56
Speaker 2: and the ability to have a collectively bargained contract. And
1:13:59
Speaker 2: as leader, I really made it a point of emphasis
1:14:01
Speaker 2: to rebuild those relationships, to show up, to understand the issues,
1:14:06
Speaker 2: and to go to bad for people. And the one
1:14:07
Speaker 2: last thing, I just want to stay because I think
1:14:09
Speaker 2: it is an important point. Even when you're in the minority,
1:14:12
Speaker 2: even though it is more difficult to fast legislation, you
1:14:15
Speaker 2: can still get wins more often than you might think.
1:14:18
Speaker 2: In Constituent service is really important even if you're in
1:14:22
Speaker 2: the minority. If you have a constituent who's dealing with
1:14:24
Speaker 2: an issue and they reach out to you, and even
1:14:26
Speaker 2: if you're in the minority, you send an email or
1:14:28
Speaker 2: make a phone call to an agency head and ask
1:14:30
Speaker 2: them like, hey, why is this not happening, people will
1:14:32
Speaker 2: still get right back to you.
1:14:43
Speaker 1: I learned that one thing Grassally and Heark and Head
1:14:45
Speaker 1: in common is that they were they were always both
1:14:48
Speaker 1: very well known for being really good on that stuff,
1:14:50
Speaker 1: Like you cannot mess that stuff up because that's a
1:14:54
Speaker 1: political right.
1:14:55
Speaker 2: And that's what people expect from their elected officials. And
1:14:59
Speaker 2: like the only the last, and I want to make
1:15:00
Speaker 2: on this because you alluded how it didn't end well.
1:15:02
Speaker 2: As you can tell, I had a lot of ideas
1:15:04
Speaker 2: for what we needed to do, and like the fact
1:15:07
Speaker 2: that it was not actually okay to just be comfortable
1:15:10
Speaker 2: being in the minority because the stakes are incredibly high.
1:15:13
Speaker 2: The laws that were being passed and my views certainly
1:15:16
Speaker 2: were terrible for our state, and winning back to the
1:15:18
Speaker 2: majority was not optional. It was not something that we
1:15:20
Speaker 2: would get to next cycle. We needed to really embrace
1:15:23
Speaker 2: the urgency that we were doing. And I always believed
1:15:25
Speaker 2: in leading my example, I would never expect somebody to
1:15:28
Speaker 2: work harder than me if they worked as a part
1:15:31
Speaker 2: of my team. So I took that work really, really seriously.
1:15:34
Speaker 2: But it meant that we had to step up our game.
1:15:36
Speaker 2: Whether you were on the leadership team, whether you are
1:15:39
Speaker 2: a rank and file member of the caucus, whether you
1:15:41
Speaker 2: were staff, did not matter to me. We had to
1:15:43
Speaker 2: elevate our expectations. You asked what I learned. I knew
1:15:46
Speaker 2: that making change was hard. I learned just how hard
1:15:49
Speaker 2: it was as a result of that experience. I probably
1:15:51
Speaker 2: should have been more intentional about communicating my vision in
1:15:54
Speaker 2: a way that spoke to members of my caucus. But
1:15:57
Speaker 2: the reality is that part of it was just I
1:15:59
Speaker 2: was willing to push people. I was willing to say
1:16:00
Speaker 2: that our party had to do a better job of
1:16:02
Speaker 2: showing up in the communities that we had not been
1:16:04
Speaker 2: present in. And like, frankly, that's a lot of work.
1:16:07
Speaker 2: But I mean, for you, empathy for Schumer in this.
1:16:12
Speaker 2: I mean, look, no, because he and I'll tell you
1:16:14
Speaker 2: this as one of I think it would be I'd
1:16:16
Speaker 2: be like maybe the fourth or fifth senator in the
1:16:18
Speaker 2: caucus who has served in a leadership role. Right, he
1:16:21
Speaker 2: has been around long enough that he should have had
1:16:24
Speaker 2: a much better understanding of the leverage that he did
1:16:26
Speaker 2: and did not have. And I just go back to
1:16:28
Speaker 2: the shutdown fight as an example of not meeting the
1:16:30
Speaker 2: moment the first Well, so both of them, because they're
1:16:33
Speaker 2: deeply connected. Because in March, when they you know, gave
1:16:36
Speaker 2: them the votes to keep the government open, they knew
1:16:39
Speaker 2: the clock was set to September thirtieth, right, they knew
1:16:42
Speaker 2: that was the next other that they had coming. At
1:16:44
Speaker 2: what point did Senate Democrats put forward their counter offer
1:16:48
Speaker 2: to keep the government open. It was like the second
1:16:50
Speaker 2: week of September. They missed the entire summer recess. They
1:16:55
Speaker 2: could have been barnstorming all over the country. They could
1:16:57
Speaker 2: have been in states like Aye right now, I'd not chuck,
1:17:00
Speaker 2: but other folks right could have been campaigning in Iowa. Right.
1:17:03
Speaker 2: But because they couldn't figure out what they were actually
1:17:06
Speaker 2: asking for until less than three weeks before the shutdown deadline,
1:17:09
Speaker 2: you get into this this you prolonged shutdown, having missed
1:17:14
Speaker 2: your best opportunity to communicate with the American voters ahead
1:17:17
Speaker 2: of time. And then it was you know, the ACA subsidies,
1:17:20
Speaker 2: which by the way, are totally worth fighting for, which
1:17:23
Speaker 2: is why throwing the towel in on them, And they
1:17:25
Speaker 2: still haven't taken a vote on that, and said, if
1:17:27
Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken to me, just like illustrates that he's
1:17:30
Speaker 2: clearly not up to the job.
1:17:32
Speaker 1: Let's talk about being a US senator and you guys
1:17:34
Speaker 1: get the majority. Yeah, because I think this is a
1:17:37
Speaker 1: real open question, which is what do you do with
1:17:40
Speaker 1: the president? Where do I I don't want to put
1:17:45
Speaker 1: words in your mouth. Do you work with them or not? Yeah?
1:17:48
Speaker 2: Of course. I mean, so, look, here's the thing with
1:17:50
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. I mean, and we're recording this on April seventh,
1:17:54
Speaker 2: there are some events that are happening today.
1:17:56
Speaker 1: I know exactly what you're referring to. By the time
1:17:59
Speaker 1: the sayers, hopefully it's just yet another crazy thing he tweeted,
1:18:03
Speaker 1: and we're literally moving on to the next I mean,
1:18:05
Speaker 1: there's every chance that there are six tweets between now
1:18:08
Speaker 1: and when this airs that are almost as crazy as
1:18:11
Speaker 1: the two that you were referring to. At the moment.
1:18:13
Speaker 2: It totally right. And I have not been fully briefed,
1:18:16
Speaker 2: and I haven't been some development they.
1:18:17
Speaker 1: Who knows what's happened since we started talking.
1:18:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, look at your phone. Oh my god, you're like Jesus,
1:18:26
Speaker 2: here's what I would tell you, Chuck, as a member
1:18:29
Speaker 2: of the State Senate, as a freshman legislator who's from
1:18:32
Speaker 2: and Johnson County is the most progressive county in the
1:18:34
Speaker 2: state of Iowa. That is one percent true. I approached
1:18:38
Speaker 2: the job really simply shut owing up finding places where
1:18:41
Speaker 2: I could find common ground with my Republican colleagues, because
1:18:45
Speaker 2: that's what they are. My first floor speech was not
1:18:49
Speaker 2: a barn burner about you know how evil the Iowa
1:18:52
Speaker 2: Republican Party is. It was about a man I had
1:18:56
Speaker 2: met the night before during one of the polar War
1:18:58
Speaker 2: Texas that had hit our state, who was homeless, was
1:19:01
Speaker 2: trying to get to where he needed to go. As
1:19:02
Speaker 2: able to help him out just a little bit, And
1:19:04
Speaker 2: it was to me, again, as a freshman legislator, when
1:19:08
Speaker 2: we can make a difference, we have a responsibility to
1:19:10
Speaker 2: make a difference, and if that means working across the aisle,
1:19:13
Speaker 2: then that's absolutely what we'll do. So if Donald Trump
1:19:15
Speaker 2: has ideas that are good for the state of Iowa,
1:19:18
Speaker 2: of course I'll be willing to work with him the
1:19:19
Speaker 2: same way that I've worked with my Republican colleagues in
1:19:21
Speaker 2: the Senate to pass that bill.
1:19:22
Speaker 1: That killed What's.
1:19:26
Speaker 2: There's two that I would say that I've talked about publicly.
1:19:29
Speaker 2: You know, he had I forget if it was a
1:19:32
Speaker 2: social media thing or if you got asked a question
1:19:33
Speaker 2: about it, but it was about private equity purchasing homes
1:19:37
Speaker 2: and the effect that's having on young people being able
1:19:40
Speaker 2: to buy homes. If I said, if he wants to
1:19:42
Speaker 2: work on that, I'll be happy to work with them
1:19:43
Speaker 2: on it. And then the more recent thing was about
1:19:47
Speaker 2: anti monopoly work within the beef livestock packing space. Like
1:19:52
Speaker 2: that is another place where again, if he is actually
1:19:55
Speaker 2: serious about, you know, any of that work, I would
1:19:58
Speaker 2: be happy to work with him. The problem is a vast, vast,
1:20:01
Speaker 2: vast majority of things that this administration is put forward,
1:20:04
Speaker 2: like I said earlier, are almost uniquely bad for Iowa.
1:20:07
Speaker 2: I mean, Ashley Hintson rubber Stand voted for the tariffs
1:20:09
Speaker 2: four different times, having devastating impacts not just on our
1:20:13
Speaker 2: ag economy, on manufacturing, on everyday consumer products, I mean,
1:20:17
Speaker 2: you name it. Voted for the medicaid cuts that in
1:20:20
Speaker 2: Medicaid is a lifeline for rural hospitals in this state.
1:20:25
Speaker 2: And voted for ending investments in clean energy, the result
1:20:29
Speaker 2: of which is that energy costs are already going up
1:20:31
Speaker 2: and are going to continue to go through the roof
1:20:33
Speaker 2: the ACA subsidies. I mean, all of these things right,
1:20:37
Speaker 2: and the fundamental problem is that the challenge in beef
1:20:41
Speaker 2: livestock processing, meat packing of four companies call hang the shots.
1:20:46
Speaker 2: That same trend is playing out in industry after industry
1:20:49
Speaker 2: after industry after industry. I'll give you just one example.
1:20:53
Speaker 2: We were in Southwest Iowa, Caste County in Atlantic, which
1:20:57
Speaker 2: is the county seat roundtable discussion with community leader there
1:21:00
Speaker 2: from a wide variety of different backgrounds, and one of
1:21:04
Speaker 2: the things that emerged in that conversation is the fact
1:21:07
Speaker 2: that the price for a new fire engine in that
1:21:09
Speaker 2: community it turns it out in this state and in
1:21:12
Speaker 2: fact in this entire country, has tripled over the last decade.
1:21:17
Speaker 2: And the reason that has happened is because a single
1:21:19
Speaker 2: private equity company has consolidated forty percent was previously a
1:21:25
Speaker 2: very competitive manufacturing sector. So not only have they consolidated
1:21:30
Speaker 2: almost half of that industry, which is jacked up the
1:21:32
Speaker 2: price three times in ten years, the wait list has
1:21:36
Speaker 2: more than doubled. And fire trucks are not an optional
1:21:39
Speaker 2: expense for a community, right And I'm not just saying this,
1:21:43
Speaker 2: by the way, because my two year old is obsessed
1:21:44
Speaker 2: with fire trucks.
1:21:45
Speaker 1: Which he is.
1:21:47
Speaker 2: But you think people are They feel like, well, why
1:21:50
Speaker 2: my property taxes going up? Well, one of the reasons
1:21:52
Speaker 2: why your property taxes are going up is because your
1:21:54
Speaker 2: property taxes are padding the profit margins for this private
1:21:58
Speaker 2: equity company that is getting rich off your money, holding
1:22:02
Speaker 2: up essentially the and taking hostage, the manufacturing not just
1:22:06
Speaker 2: a fire trucks, but street sweepers, sewer vacs, you name it, right,
1:22:10
Speaker 2: and that is corporate greed and the failure of this
1:22:14
Speaker 2: president and frankly, of leaders in both parties to really
1:22:17
Speaker 2: challenge that corporate power, that consolidation. That is part of
1:22:21
Speaker 2: what voters are so angry at and why there is
1:22:24
Speaker 2: so much You know, I think grassroots support for our
1:22:27
Speaker 2: campaigns as we are talking about it, and it is
1:22:29
Speaker 2: resonating with people.
1:22:31
Speaker 1: Look the frankly, very simple way that this primary is
1:22:35
Speaker 1: being described as you're the Sanders Warren candidate and your
1:22:39
Speaker 1: primary opponent is the is the sort of Schumer mainstream candidate?
1:22:45
Speaker 1: Fair description or unfair description?
1:22:48
Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, I mean I don't really think of myself
1:22:50
Speaker 2: as being, you know, a far left or far right person.
1:22:53
Speaker 2: I think most Iowas really see themselves as being people
1:22:56
Speaker 2: who look at the issues and trying to figure out
1:22:58
Speaker 2: their position. I was really honored to have Senator Warren's
1:23:00
Speaker 2: endorsement for this campaign. And in fact, Jockey goes back
1:23:03
Speaker 2: to what we were talking about a few minutes ago.
1:23:06
Speaker 2: You know, she and I first met back in twenty
1:23:07
Speaker 2: nineteen when she was running for president, and it was
1:23:11
Speaker 2: at the same time that we were having her back
1:23:13
Speaker 2: then I did YEP in September of that year, and
1:23:17
Speaker 2: you know, she you know, I'm doing battle with these
1:23:19
Speaker 2: big companies that are coming in screwing over my constituents
1:23:22
Speaker 2: and all the folks who were running for president. She
1:23:24
Speaker 2: was the one who took the most interest in figuring
1:23:26
Speaker 2: out what was happening on the ground and how do
1:23:29
Speaker 2: we fight back. And so she came and she toured
1:23:32
Speaker 2: communities right and talked to my constituents and heard from them,
1:23:36
Speaker 2: and it was actually really really special for me. She
1:23:40
Speaker 2: she let me know this a few weeks ago that
1:23:42
Speaker 2: and this goes exactly to your question. And the bipartisan
1:23:46
Speaker 2: housing bill that has moved through the Senate is now,
1:23:48
Speaker 2: i believe, heading into conference at the House. There are
1:23:50
Speaker 2: two provisions in that bill that were a direct result
1:23:53
Speaker 2: of the work that we did together back in twenty nineteen.
1:23:56
Speaker 2: And that bill, as you know, passed it things like
1:23:58
Speaker 2: eighty five to ten or something, and it was a
1:24:01
Speaker 2: very bipartisan bill. And so this fundamental question is about
1:24:04
Speaker 2: who are you fighting for and who do you owe?
1:24:08
Speaker 2: Right as I was us Senator Chuck Schumer is not
1:24:12
Speaker 2: going to have leverage over me, right, And so when
1:24:15
Speaker 2: my constituents are saying, hey, this is what we need
1:24:17
Speaker 2: you to fight for, and I've got leadership saying hey,
1:24:18
Speaker 2: we need you to do this, I know who I'm
1:24:20
Speaker 2: siding with every single day. And I'll tell you one
1:24:23
Speaker 2: of the most popular things that I'm running on is
1:24:25
Speaker 2: term limits. That is not something that is a kind
1:24:28
Speaker 2: of stereotypically democratic or progressive idea, but to me, it's
1:24:33
Speaker 2: something that I just I experience. Seeing my time in
1:24:35
Speaker 2: the legislature, I've seen what happens when good people stay
1:24:38
Speaker 2: for too long. I think it is much worse when
1:24:39
Speaker 2: bad people stay for too long. And so from my perspective,
1:24:43
Speaker 2: having that rotating the crops right in Iowa, we know
1:24:46
Speaker 2: that's good for our soil. I think it's probably pretty
1:24:48
Speaker 2: good for Congress too.
1:24:49
Speaker 1: I like that. I just hate I'll tell you where
1:24:52
Speaker 1: I talk. My issue with term limits is due to
1:24:57
Speaker 1: what's happened in most state capitals, right where there are
1:25:00
Speaker 1: most and this is something that I think is a
1:25:04
Speaker 1: I think what the rotating crops line is fantastic. By
1:25:07
Speaker 1: the way, I love that line. You know who's I
1:25:11
Speaker 1: did borrow.
1:25:12
Speaker 2: I did borrow from my friend Tom Bill Sack.
1:25:14
Speaker 1: Anyway, Oh look at that and old Bill Sacks. You
1:25:17
Speaker 1: know who's not term limited lobbyists. And one of the
1:25:22
Speaker 1: one of the things, yeah, I hear you on that.
1:25:25
Speaker 1: One of the things that happens, especially with part time legislatures,
1:25:30
Speaker 1: is that you just described the problem for a part
1:25:32
Speaker 1: time legislature. You you have the demands of a full
1:25:36
Speaker 1: time constituent service. You know, you've got to figure out
1:25:40
Speaker 1: these bills. Some of them are quite complicated, and you're
1:25:43
Speaker 1: literally on your own and you have to have a
1:25:45
Speaker 1: job on the outside in order to support you know,
1:25:49
Speaker 1: everyday life and all this, and the lobbyists have all
1:25:52
Speaker 1: sorts of resources and the last and losing that institutional knowledge.
1:25:58
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's the it's the lobbyists that
1:26:01
Speaker 1: sometimes dictate the legislation because they've been around longer than that.
1:26:05
Speaker 1: That's my only concern with term limits. And I get
1:26:08
Speaker 1: it because trust me, it's super popular, not wrong, Like
1:26:11
Speaker 1: everybody wants that. They're tired of these people. You look
1:26:13
Speaker 1: at Jesus Chuck Grassley's been there how long?
1:26:15
Speaker 2: Right, that sort of thing. I'm back. My mom turned
1:26:18
Speaker 2: seventy last year. She was not even three years old
1:26:21
Speaker 2: when Chuck rasse, she's now eligible to run for president?
1:26:23
Speaker 2: Does she know that, Chuck, I've totally heard that this
1:26:27
Speaker 2: argument too. We don't have term limits in Iowa. The
1:26:30
Speaker 2: lobbyists have plenty of power. The packs have plenty of power, right,
1:26:34
Speaker 2: and so from my perspective, that is part of a
1:26:36
Speaker 2: broader agenda and kind of quark and pieces of that are,
1:26:40
Speaker 2: you know, overturning citizens United, cracking down on the dark money,
1:26:43
Speaker 2: the unlimited money, term limits, and then also banning members
1:26:46
Speaker 2: of Congress from being able to own trade sal stocks
1:26:48
Speaker 2: while they're in office. And the key thing on all
1:26:51
Speaker 2: three of those, Chuck, is I'm leading by example. I
1:26:53
Speaker 2: have made a promise I will only serve two terms
1:26:55
Speaker 2: if elected for following the soon to be bipartisan tradition
1:26:59
Speaker 2: set by my pre assessor Joony Ernst. As we talked
1:27:03
Speaker 2: about earlier, we are not accepting corporate pack money and
1:27:06
Speaker 2: this campaign, and that is something that again I think
1:27:08
Speaker 2: resonates with people because they can see what happens.
1:27:11
Speaker 1: Right.
1:27:12
Speaker 2: Ashley Hinson, by the way, has accepted more corporate pack
1:27:15
Speaker 2: money than almost any member of the United States House
1:27:17
Speaker 2: of representatives and that is saying something. And then the
1:27:20
Speaker 2: final pieces that have also made a personal promise not
1:27:22
Speaker 2: to own, trade, sell stock, cryptocurrency. More recently now these
1:27:26
Speaker 2: prediction markets that are obviously getting a lot of attention.
1:27:29
Speaker 2: We address all of that in my proposal that we
1:27:30
Speaker 2: released today, and I will hold not just myself but
1:27:33
Speaker 2: my wife and my staff to that same standard because
1:27:37
Speaker 2: leadership starts by example, and I think that's part of
1:27:40
Speaker 2: what is also resonating with people online gambling.
1:27:44
Speaker 1: Look, states are looking for new ways to get money
1:27:47
Speaker 1: without raising taxes, which is why the vices right, whether
1:27:52
Speaker 1: it's legalization of cannabis, legalization of sports gambling, legalization potentially
1:27:57
Speaker 1: these betting markets a societal concern, right, and that toll
1:28:03
Speaker 1: where's the balance? Where are you on these things? Iowa
1:28:05
Speaker 1: was a I believe has mobile gambling? How im is it?
1:28:11
Speaker 1: Is it great revenue for the state? Has it been
1:28:13
Speaker 1: worth it? And where do you come down? By the
1:28:15
Speaker 1: way I say this, I enjoy gambling. I'm not going
1:28:18
Speaker 1: to say there I'm not a I'm not, but there's
1:28:21
Speaker 1: a you know, we all know there's there's moderation. There's
1:28:25
Speaker 1: nothing wrong with moderation. Sometimes on some vices. Nobody's saying
1:28:28
Speaker 1: drink a bottle of wine a night. Nobody is saying,
1:28:31
Speaker 1: you know, make fifteen bets a night. Yeah.
1:28:35
Speaker 2: So, I mean, look what I would tell you when
1:28:38
Speaker 2: I was legalized online sports betting. This is back in
1:28:41
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, my first year in the legislature. I voted no.
1:28:45
Speaker 2: There was a bi Parson group of Democrats Republicans support it,
1:28:49
Speaker 2: and a bipartison group of Democrats Republicans. This isn't a.
1:28:52
Speaker 1: Clean left right issue, is it? It really is? It felt?
1:28:55
Speaker 1: Was it a more small town big town splits?
1:28:58
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean so for me, so I represent
1:29:02
Speaker 2: at that time Coralville, which is where I live in
1:29:05
Speaker 2: some Iowa City neighborhoods, and then I had rural Johnson County,
1:29:09
Speaker 2: all of Cedar County, and Muscatine County. So I had
1:29:11
Speaker 2: actually a very wide I mean I had communities that
1:29:14
Speaker 2: were two hundred people and that represented parts of Iowa City,
1:29:16
Speaker 2: which is about eighty thousand people, but especially representing part
1:29:19
Speaker 2: of the University of Iowa. I was really concerned about
1:29:22
Speaker 2: the fact that people were going to be able to
1:29:24
Speaker 2: bet on amateur athletes in the university college setting. And
1:29:28
Speaker 2: I was really worried about the impact. And this is
1:29:29
Speaker 2: also separate. But now the amateur athletes from and I
1:29:33
Speaker 2: being all that all that stuff as well, and like
1:29:36
Speaker 2: that's a separate hour long conversation.
1:29:38
Speaker 1: We're not going are promise.
1:29:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, but what I would tell you is that, you know,
1:29:41
Speaker 2: after it passed, even though I voted no, like I
1:29:44
Speaker 2: downloaded Draft Kings a couple of years later, and you
1:29:46
Speaker 2: would put a little bit of money on you know,
1:29:48
Speaker 2: I'm a big Packers fan, so you know I bet
1:29:50
Speaker 2: on the Packers more than the Hawkeye.
1:29:52
Speaker 1: Like a good like a good island. My father grew
1:29:54
Speaker 1: up in that part of Ioway. He came away a
1:29:56
Speaker 1: Packers fan. That's what you did.
1:29:57
Speaker 2: My mom still has these stories of watching Bart Starr
1:29:59
Speaker 2: and the black and white TV and the Ice Bowl
1:30:02
Speaker 2: and all it's it's.
1:30:02
Speaker 1: I don't get all the way too many Vikings and
1:30:05
Speaker 1: Chiefs fans have encroached in Iowa. I don't know.
1:30:07
Speaker 2: Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope nope. But what I
1:30:10
Speaker 2: would tell you is that, you know, you definitely do
1:30:12
Speaker 2: see the dark side. And I think you know the
1:30:14
Speaker 2: discussion of like, well if democrats, you know, oppose betting
1:30:17
Speaker 2: is that gonna you're gonna lose young men. I think
1:30:20
Speaker 2: it completely miss it, completely misunderstands. Now, look, gambling, to
1:30:24
Speaker 2: your point, can absolutely be enjoyable when responsible, and like
1:30:28
Speaker 2: I've certainly you know, enjoyed a hand of blackjack or
1:30:30
Speaker 2: two and and and it certainly can be fun. And
1:30:32
Speaker 2: putting little action on the game certainly does increase the
1:30:35
Speaker 2: stakes for sure. The challenge and the reason why, whether
1:30:38
Speaker 2: it's crypto or online betting or now some of these
1:30:40
Speaker 2: prediction markets. So many young people, men and women, but
1:30:44
Speaker 2: men because of dystosterone, higher you know, appetite for risk,
1:30:48
Speaker 2: what have you. You know, a lot of young men
1:30:51
Speaker 2: do not feel like they have economic opportunity in their future.
1:30:54
Speaker 2: They worry about this world that they are growing up
1:30:57
Speaker 2: in where there's this massive and growing disparity between people
1:30:59
Speaker 2: who have what seems like an infinite amount of money
1:31:02
Speaker 2: and an uncertain future for themselves or their families. And so,
1:31:05
Speaker 2: you know, their interest in crypto or gambling or prediction markets,
1:31:10
Speaker 2: fundamentally it is all speaking to the exact same thing,
1:31:13
Speaker 2: which is fear for their economic futures. And that is
1:31:16
Speaker 2: the thing that democrats need to be focused on because
1:31:19
Speaker 2: what is happening in these things is a symptom of
1:31:22
Speaker 2: a much deeper and frankly in some respects, more disturbing disease.
1:31:25
Speaker 2: The one thing I would say, though I didn't have
1:31:27
Speaker 2: the chance to read it quite as close as I
1:31:29
Speaker 2: would have liked, there was a big cover story in
1:31:31
Speaker 2: The Atlantic by McKay coppin. Yeah, and I know that
1:31:36
Speaker 2: his writings is really high quality. But I would just
1:31:38
Speaker 2: tell you, you know, I have not close personal friends
1:31:41
Speaker 2: of mine, but you know, close people who I'm close
1:31:44
Speaker 2: with who have themselves lost friends due to gambling addictions
1:31:47
Speaker 2: and suicide and some of these things. And it is
1:31:50
Speaker 2: a really unique addiction because of the fact that it
1:31:54
Speaker 2: does not always manifest physically. It often involves a lot
1:31:57
Speaker 2: of secrecy. And so there are some really unique things
1:32:00
Speaker 2: that I do think we need to take a much
1:32:01
Speaker 2: closer look at. And again going back to its connection
1:32:04
Speaker 2: into the NIL and the amateur athletics, and to me
1:32:07
Speaker 2: like that makes me very uncomfortable.
1:32:10
Speaker 1: And the addictions that's got to be settled on the
1:32:12
Speaker 1: federal level. You guys got I think, I mean, I
1:32:15
Speaker 1: think so probably.
1:32:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know that there's some separation of power stuff
1:32:18
Speaker 2: with federal and state government there too, but fundamentally right,
1:32:22
Speaker 2: I think the broader issue and this is what Democrats
1:32:24
Speaker 2: need to be addressing more effectively, which is what we're
1:32:27
Speaker 2: trying to do and lead by example again in this campaign,
1:32:30
Speaker 2: is have those kind of crete ideas about what's happening
1:32:32
Speaker 2: in our economy so that people don't feel like they
1:32:34
Speaker 2: have to bet their life savings or what little money
1:32:36
Speaker 2: they do have trying to get enough money to escape
1:32:39
Speaker 2: the quote unquote permanent underclass. And I think that's something
1:32:43
Speaker 2: that speaks to a lot of people.
1:32:47
Speaker 1: You see, have a two year old, Yeah, how is uh?
1:32:52
Speaker 1: Everybody probably told you when you had your when you
1:32:55
Speaker 1: had your kid, that you know your life was going
1:32:57
Speaker 1: to change forever, and you're like, yeah, yeah, yeah, whatever, Now,
1:33:01
Speaker 1: how how do you take those comments?
1:33:05
Speaker 2: It is the best part of my day. You know,
1:33:08
Speaker 2: my wife is traveling for work this week, so I'm
1:33:11
Speaker 2: on solo dad duty, which, while running for the US
1:33:13
Speaker 2: Senate is not, uh, you know, the easiest for sure.
1:33:18
Speaker 2: I've also been you know, look, having two grandmas, who
1:33:21
Speaker 2: are you know, fifteen minute drive away, and Eli is
1:33:24
Speaker 2: their first, their first grandchild, certainly a huge help to
1:33:28
Speaker 2: this campaign. I'm very glad that there's an FEC exemption
1:33:31
Speaker 2: for inkind contributions because my parents are definitely way past
1:33:34
Speaker 2: the federal limits. You know, we haven't even I mean, Chuck,
1:33:37
Speaker 2: I don't think I've mentioned this yet, but the fact
1:33:38
Speaker 2: that my childcare costs as much as my mortgage and
1:33:43
Speaker 2: we have one kid, and that is something that we
1:33:46
Speaker 2: hear doesn't matter for an A bite.
1:33:47
Speaker 1: Should be bipartisan. I mean, j d Vance is for
1:33:50
Speaker 1: the child care tax credit. It seems like this is
1:33:53
Speaker 1: something that has bipartisan support. I don't know why this
1:33:58
Speaker 1: got dropped as a Democratic prior.
1:34:01
Speaker 2: Well, you know, Chuck, I would tell you I've seen
1:34:03
Speaker 2: it in my own life. So this is right back
1:34:05
Speaker 2: in the beginning of the campaign. I had a friend
1:34:07
Speaker 2: from high school and called him Jeff, who had moved
1:34:10
Speaker 2: away for a while. I'd come back and I learned
1:34:14
Speaker 2: that he was in Des Moines, and so I just
1:34:15
Speaker 2: shot him in texta today it's been a while. I
1:34:16
Speaker 2: would love to see you. Can we sneak in a
1:34:18
Speaker 2: fifteen minute coffee to sketch up a little bit and so,
1:34:20
Speaker 2: you know, first ten minutes just talking about life. In
1:34:23
Speaker 2: the last five minutes, says you know, Zach, I get
1:34:25
Speaker 2: all your texts in your emails, and Jeff's a conservative Republican.
1:34:28
Speaker 2: You know, it's like, I don't agree with you on
1:34:30
Speaker 2: a lot of what you have to say, but I
1:34:32
Speaker 2: will tell you this, you are one hundred percent right
1:34:35
Speaker 2: about the cost of childcare. And then he talked to
1:34:37
Speaker 2: me about how he and his wife want to start
1:34:39
Speaker 2: a family and they either of them want to quit working,
1:34:43
Speaker 2: but they literally cannot afford the combination of rent and childcare.
1:34:47
Speaker 2: And then Jeff said, and again this goes back to
1:34:49
Speaker 2: my Gaary story earlier, Zach, I love your anti corruption message.
1:34:53
Speaker 2: The term limits, banning stock trading, you know, getting the
1:34:56
Speaker 2: big money, the corporate money out really speaks to me.
1:35:01
Speaker 2: And so look, Jeff's not going to be voting in
1:35:03
Speaker 2: our Democratic primary, but he's gonna voting in the general election.
1:35:06
Speaker 2: And I think the fact that you've got a message
1:35:09
Speaker 2: that is resonating, you know, with more than just my
1:35:11
Speaker 2: high school buddies, but with people I think across the state.
1:35:14
Speaker 2: That's part of why we're so excited about this race.
1:35:16
Speaker 2: And I would have forced not be doing my job
1:35:19
Speaker 2: if I didn't make sure your listeners know that if
1:35:20
Speaker 2: they want to join a grassroots campaign, they can go
1:35:22
Speaker 2: to Zach Walls dot com to learn more and make
1:35:24
Speaker 2: a grassroots contribution today.
1:35:27
Speaker 1: Zach, it's been good to get to know you here.
1:35:30
Speaker 1: What's it going to take for Iowa football to go
1:35:33
Speaker 1: to that next level? The they're like in the really
1:35:36
Speaker 1: really really really good what's the take to get to
1:35:40
Speaker 1: Ohio State? Yeah?
1:35:41
Speaker 2: Look, man, I'd say two things. And it's funny. It's
1:35:45
Speaker 2: section just a little parallel with the caucus leadership thing.
1:35:50
Speaker 2: You can't be comfortable being a ten on one team.
1:35:54
Speaker 2: You're ten and two like you you got to move
1:35:56
Speaker 2: past this idea that you know.
1:35:58
Speaker 1: Getting to the fave satisfied with nine and three And.
1:36:03
Speaker 2: That's that's that's That's what I'm saying is like, at
1:36:05
Speaker 2: a certain level, you have to change your expectations that
1:36:08
Speaker 2: you set for yourself. And I have nothing bad to
1:36:11
Speaker 2: say about Kirk Farrance's time uh in Iowa. He's been
1:36:14
Speaker 2: a legendary coach for US most winging ast he discovered
1:36:18
Speaker 2: the past last year. Well, you know, look, I do
1:36:22
Speaker 2: think and to some extent, right, I mean again, our
1:36:25
Speaker 2: athletic director being willing to make the tough call to
1:36:27
Speaker 2: let his son go not.
1:36:29
Speaker 1: Easy, coach, You gotta you gotta let go of your son.
1:36:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, Beth has done great things for Hawkeye athletics and
1:36:36
Speaker 2: one of the you know, and look, the McCaffrey family
1:36:39
Speaker 2: are friends of mine. Friend and Margaret have done a
1:36:42
Speaker 2: lot of incredible work in our community and and their
1:36:44
Speaker 2: they're work supporting efforts against cancer. So I don't have
1:36:47
Speaker 2: a bad word to say about fran Uh or his
1:36:50
Speaker 2: time at Iowa either. But what I will tell you
1:36:52
Speaker 2: is everybody saw what Beth saw and Ben McCollum this year,
1:36:56
Speaker 2: and so I think the future is very bright for
1:36:58
Speaker 2: Hawkeye basketball, both men's and women's. And I think that
1:37:02
Speaker 2: we've got, you know, some good things on the horizon,
1:37:04
Speaker 2: but fundamentally just sets. It begins with a leader who
1:37:07
Speaker 2: is willing to say the way things are is not
1:37:08
Speaker 2: the way that they have to be, and sometimes it
1:37:11
Speaker 2: means many.
1:37:11
Speaker 1: And Jack, I'm impressed you took a question about Iowa
1:37:13
Speaker 1: football them brought it back on message or trying there
1:37:17
Speaker 1: you go, be safe on the trail, good to get
1:37:21
Speaker 1: to appreciate it. To top five top I'm taking a
1:37:35
Speaker 1: reader suggestion, so big shout out to all of you
1:37:40
Speaker 1: guys out there for helping be helping me, uh uh,
1:37:44
Speaker 1: and the team produce this podcast that produced a segment
1:37:47
Speaker 1: because you're the basic premise was, all right, you know,
1:37:50
Speaker 1: the one through five isn't going to be changing, and
1:37:52
Speaker 1: the five most likely Senate seats to flip it really
1:37:56
Speaker 1: is six through ten, where you're going to have a
1:37:58
Speaker 1: lot of fluidity probably now and election day. And you
1:38:02
Speaker 1: know what, you guys are right, and so instead of
1:38:06
Speaker 1: calling it six through ten, I'm going to call it
1:38:08
Speaker 1: the next five in the Senate, all right, So I'm
1:38:12
Speaker 1: not touching my you know, my five most flippables. And
1:38:15
Speaker 1: I think this is the way we're going to do
1:38:16
Speaker 1: this going forward. Every time I do the Senate is
1:38:18
Speaker 1: that you know, look, I think the unless it's a
1:38:21
Speaker 1: there's a change there, I think the top four may
1:38:24
Speaker 1: not change. Given the current environment, right of unstable economy,
1:38:31
Speaker 1: unpopular war, unpopular presidency. Right, this is a this is
1:38:36
Speaker 1: an environment that is tilting towards the Democrats. The question
1:38:39
Speaker 1: is is it are we on tilt yet right where
1:38:43
Speaker 1: everything seems to be going in their direction? Or is
1:38:46
Speaker 1: this more like a twenty twenty two where you know,
1:38:51
Speaker 1: it was like things tilted slightly to the Republicans, but
1:38:54
Speaker 1: it wasn't the big victories that they were counting on.
1:38:57
Speaker 1: And I think, in fairness, I think that's what we
1:39:00
Speaker 1: don't know. I think, are we going to have a
1:39:03
Speaker 1: way Democrats are on their way to having a good night?
1:39:05
Speaker 1: Are they going to have a wave? Are they gonna
1:39:06
Speaker 1: be able to win both the House and the Senate?
1:39:08
Speaker 2: Right?
1:39:08
Speaker 1: Those are the sort of the next check marks here.
1:39:10
Speaker 1: I think, as I've said before, I think the House
1:39:13
Speaker 1: is cooked. I think that's a done deal for the Democrats.
1:39:15
Speaker 1: They didn't need many think the only question we have
1:39:19
Speaker 1: is it a single digit majority for the Democrats or
1:39:22
Speaker 1: is it a double digit majority. As we've learned with
1:39:24
Speaker 1: this single digit majority that the Republicans currently hold, single
1:39:29
Speaker 1: digit is tougher for governance. When you get to double digits,
1:39:33
Speaker 1: then suddenly you can you can afford to lose a
1:39:36
Speaker 1: vote here or there. So there's a my caveats aside.
1:39:41
Speaker 1: So we were doing the six or ten and just
1:39:42
Speaker 1: a reminder, currently right now, the five seats my top
1:39:46
Speaker 1: top five five most likely Senate seats to flip North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska,
1:39:53
Speaker 1: and Nebraska was in the fifth slot. Now I'm going
1:39:56
Speaker 1: to put an asterisk on here with Nebraska, because is
1:40:01
Speaker 1: Nebraska the fifth slot is really a three way tie.
1:40:04
Speaker 1: In my head right now, I think it's interchangeable Nebraska, Michigan, Texas.
1:40:09
Speaker 1: So I went ahead and leaned towards Nebraska for a
1:40:14
Speaker 1: few reasons, and why I put them in the fifth
1:40:16
Speaker 1: in the first place last week. One is when it's
1:40:20
Speaker 1: a fifty to fifty race, I go with the party
1:40:23
Speaker 1: that's more likely to have the overall national advantage. Right now,
1:40:27
Speaker 1: that's on the Democrats. Osborne not technically a Democrat, but
1:40:30
Speaker 1: certainly running against the Republicans. We still don't know who
1:40:34
Speaker 1: the nominee is in Texas, and until we have that nominee,
1:40:37
Speaker 1: I think you cannot fully handicap that race correctly. And
1:40:41
Speaker 1: until we have a nominee on the Democratic side in Michigan,
1:40:44
Speaker 1: you can't fully handicap that because I do. Look, if
1:40:47
Speaker 1: I'll do Al Sayed gets the nomination in Michigan, Republican
1:40:52
Speaker 1: chances probably go up. You know, if you're putting this
1:40:54
Speaker 1: in terms of your prediction markets, probably a good ten
1:40:57
Speaker 1: to fifteen points. I still would slightly favor the Democrats
1:41:01
Speaker 1: holding the seat, simply because of the overall national environment.
1:41:06
Speaker 1: But boy, that is that I think there's no doubt
1:41:09
Speaker 1: suddenly they like the possibility that Republicans could pick off
1:41:12
Speaker 1: a Democratic held seat skyrockets.
1:41:15
Speaker 2: So that's why for.
1:41:16
Speaker 1: Now, because if we're in pre primary mode in some
1:41:19
Speaker 1: of these places, to me, Nebraska, Michigan in Texas, it's
1:41:23
Speaker 1: all battling for the fifth spot. For now, I put
1:41:25
Speaker 1: Nebraska there, So that means I'm telling you now that
1:41:29
Speaker 1: we're doing my next five, well the next five right there,
1:41:34
Speaker 1: six and seven. I'm going Texas over Michigan again simply
1:41:39
Speaker 1: because one is a Republican held, one is Democratic held.
1:41:43
Speaker 1: And if you believe an environment is heading towards tilts,
1:41:48
Speaker 1: then it is unlikely that the party in power is
1:41:52
Speaker 1: going to pick up anything. You know, they might hold
1:41:55
Speaker 1: seats that they don't lose much harder to pick up something,
1:41:59
Speaker 1: especially in a state that is a as swingy as
1:42:03
Speaker 1: Michigan is that definitely seems to move. Usually move with
1:42:10
Speaker 1: the country. So if the country is moving to the left,
1:42:12
Speaker 1: Michigan will move to the left. The country's moving to
1:42:14
Speaker 1: the right, Michigan will move to the right. So for now,
1:42:17
Speaker 1: it's Texas in the sixth slot, Michigan in the seventh,
1:42:22
Speaker 1: seventh slot. So then it's the next three and I think,
1:42:27
Speaker 1: you know, I will tell you who my nominees are
1:42:30
Speaker 1: for for eight, nine, and ten, because there's seven more
1:42:36
Speaker 1: Senate seats that I'm putting in the competitive category. What
1:42:39
Speaker 1: do I mean by competitive Senate races that are likely
1:42:41
Speaker 1: to be decided by single digits? Could be high single digits,
1:42:44
Speaker 1: it could be looking at eight, nine, ten points. So
1:42:46
Speaker 1: in that category is Georgia, is Iowa? Is Montana? Two
1:42:52
Speaker 1: of those threes are open seats Iowa and Montana, Minnesota
1:42:55
Speaker 1: open seat Democrats, New Hampshire open seat Democrats, Kansas, and Florida,
1:43:02
Speaker 1: which I have. They're not yet competitive, but I really
1:43:05
Speaker 1: do expect both to be a lot more competitive than
1:43:08
Speaker 1: people are prepared for. We're already seeing some signs with
1:43:11
Speaker 1: Alex Vinman in Florida raising a boatload of money. It's
1:43:18
Speaker 1: you know, we'll see. I'm certainly a skeptic that he
1:43:21
Speaker 1: can win, but I'm not a skeptic that it'll be competitive.
1:43:24
Speaker 1: I think Florida is still lighter red than everybody thinks,
1:43:28
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's light red enough to be
1:43:30
Speaker 1: flippable even in a situation like this, but hey, this
1:43:34
Speaker 1: economy deteriorates even more than all bets are off. So
1:43:39
Speaker 1: I throw that out there because I want you, you know,
1:43:43
Speaker 1: I'm going to give you what I'm putting in slots eight, nine,
1:43:45
Speaker 1: and ten here, but I want you to consider the
1:43:48
Speaker 1: other places that I'm considering that I think is in
1:43:50
Speaker 1: this competitive category. And if you're keeping score at home,
1:43:54
Speaker 1: I'm putting fourteen Senate seats in the largely competitive category
1:44:00
Speaker 1: between the two parties. You know, we'll see if a
1:44:05
Speaker 1: fifteenth gets in there. I'm skeptical, but so far that
1:44:08
Speaker 1: hasn't happened. I think if I were to say there's
1:44:12
Speaker 1: one race people are sleeping on, potentially it's Minnesota. However,
1:44:17
Speaker 1: that's a messy Democratic primary. I think Republicans have a
1:44:21
Speaker 1: fairly strong new candidate there, and Michelle Tafoya, the former
1:44:24
Speaker 1: ESPN broadcaster. You know, I still view Michelle Tafoya's sort
1:44:29
Speaker 1: of on campaign one of a two campaign cycle to
1:44:32
Speaker 1: eventually make it to the US Senate, because remember, there'll
1:44:35
Speaker 1: be if Amy Klobisher wins the governorship, then there's going
1:44:39
Speaker 1: to be a Senate seat a special election to fill
1:44:42
Speaker 1: the remainder of her term at some point. So if
1:44:44
Speaker 1: Michelle Tafoya loses this Senate seat but is as competitive
1:44:48
Speaker 1: as I expect her to be, then I think she
1:44:51
Speaker 1: ends up the front runner going into So that's why
1:44:53
Speaker 1: I'm spending a lot more time paying attention to a
1:44:55
Speaker 1: center race that probably is not going to flip. I
1:44:58
Speaker 1: think Democrats will hold it in an a national environment
1:45:01
Speaker 1: like this, So I don't have it in the top ten.
1:45:04
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean I don't think it's it's competitive,
1:45:07
Speaker 1: and it doesn't mean I don't think it's going to
1:45:08
Speaker 1: be a single digit race. So without further ado my eight, nine,
1:45:11
Speaker 1: and ten, it's Georgia's sitting at eight. As much as
1:45:19
Speaker 1: I know John Ossoff and I know my friends at
1:45:21
Speaker 1: the Cook Report have moved it to lean D, I
1:45:23
Speaker 1: think he has earned it, and you know we still
1:45:26
Speaker 1: have a MESSI Republican primary, but this is going to
1:45:29
Speaker 1: be a race that's decided by less than five points.
1:45:32
Speaker 1: So it's hard for me to put it anywhere higher
1:45:36
Speaker 1: than this. Maybe it does maybe ASoft pulls away even more.
1:45:39
Speaker 1: Either way, Certainly think he's a strong candidate for reelection.
1:45:43
Speaker 1: Certainly think that the decision by our friends of cook
1:45:45
Speaker 1: report to put it to lean is the correct decision,
1:45:48
Speaker 1: but I put it next eighth most likely to flip.
1:45:51
Speaker 1: And then at nine and ten, I'm going with Iowa
1:45:54
Speaker 1: at nine and Montana at ten. We've got a primary
1:45:58
Speaker 1: in Iowa, Zach Walls, Josh Turrek heard both candidates. I
1:46:02
Speaker 1: don't think there's a ton of difference between the two.
1:46:05
Speaker 1: One I think leans a bit more in the progressive camp.
1:46:08
Speaker 2: That's Zach Walls.
1:46:09
Speaker 1: He's a little less apologetic about it. Josh Turrek leans
1:46:12
Speaker 1: into this idea that Hey's he helped overperform in a
1:46:16
Speaker 1: place that was a bit redder than where Zach Walls
1:46:18
Speaker 1: has had some success. You know, we'll see. I think
1:46:24
Speaker 1: the Republicans are certainly seem to be more invested in
1:46:30
Speaker 1: trying to define Walls as to liberal. They're they're almost
1:46:33
Speaker 1: counting on Walls to be the nominee, and they're trying
1:46:36
Speaker 1: to paint him as too liberal for the state. You
1:46:40
Speaker 1: know that what happens if Turrek ends up winning the primary.
1:46:43
Speaker 1: So I think we got a long way to go
1:46:45
Speaker 1: here in Iowa. But as you know, I'm a believer
1:46:53
Speaker 1: Iowa is the wave test that's what we're going to
1:46:55
Speaker 1: find out. And if Democrats win the governorship, if they
1:46:58
Speaker 1: win two or more or how two of the three
1:47:01
Speaker 1: house races they're targeting there, they could win all three,
1:47:03
Speaker 1: but perhaps two of the three. One is open, because
1:47:06
Speaker 1: Ashley Hinson's is the republic likely Republican nominee for Senate.
1:47:11
Speaker 1: You could see that in a good Democratic year, Iowa
1:47:15
Speaker 1: and Ohio both could end up loom right and they
1:47:17
Speaker 1: could get two governors out of those places, two Senate seats,
1:47:22
Speaker 1: and that would tell me we had that. That to
1:47:24
Speaker 1: me is the definition of wave. So Iowa was in
1:47:27
Speaker 1: the nine slot and then the ten slot. That guy said,
1:47:32
Speaker 1: is it Minnesota? Is it New Hampshire Johnson, you know,
1:47:36
Speaker 1: Chris Pappas. We still have former Senator Scott Brown also
1:47:41
Speaker 1: in that primary. Kansas, Shree Davis hasn't said any hasn't
1:47:45
Speaker 1: gotten in. There's an independent candidate. It's probably still not
1:47:48
Speaker 1: developed yet. Florida. Could they sneak into the ten for now?
1:47:52
Speaker 1: I'm putting in Montana. I think you know, Montana can
1:47:56
Speaker 1: go up higher if the independent candidate Seth Bodner gets
1:47:59
Speaker 1: a it's gets a gets somehow convinces the National Democrats
1:48:03
Speaker 1: to take a knee. If they do, I think Bodner
1:48:07
Speaker 1: becomes becomes almost as likely, if not more likely, than
1:48:13
Speaker 1: Dan Osborne to win as an independent in in in there,
1:48:17
Speaker 1: I probably, I probably If again, if the Democrats take
1:48:22
Speaker 1: a knee like they're doing in Nebraska and sort of
1:48:25
Speaker 1: getting out of Osborne's way, if that's what happens with Bodner,
1:48:28
Speaker 1: I think Bodner has a better shot of winning than Osborne.
1:48:31
Speaker 1: But that isn't where we are yet, and I'm not
1:48:33
Speaker 1: sure we're going to get there. But Bodner is an
1:48:36
Speaker 1: interesting candidate we still got, you know, we'll see how
1:48:40
Speaker 1: you know this the the new nominee, former the US
1:48:44
Speaker 1: attorney there, we'll see how he still got a long
1:48:46
Speaker 1: way to go to get to know people. But you know,
1:48:49
Speaker 1: arguably so does Bodner. But I'm gonna put Montana in
1:48:54
Speaker 1: the ten slot there so to sum up the next five.
1:48:57
Speaker 1: As we know, and this is where this is where
1:49:00
Speaker 1: waves get made. This is where if there's a wave,
1:49:03
Speaker 1: it crashes somewhere in six through ten on my ten
1:49:07
Speaker 1: most likely flippable seats. So the six through ten, you know,
1:49:11
Speaker 1: the five, the six through ten Texas Michigan, Georgia, Iowa
1:49:19
Speaker 1: and Montana so also receiving votes Minnesota, New Hampshire, Kansas,
1:49:25
Speaker 1: and Florida. Love to hear from you if you think
1:49:27
Speaker 1: I've left out one. Some of you have been poking
1:49:30
Speaker 1: me about Colorado and the fact that Hickenlooper is going
1:49:33
Speaker 1: to get a primary challenge from the left. Yeah, I
1:49:37
Speaker 1: think you know that primary challenger might get thirty five
1:49:39
Speaker 1: forty percent of the vote, but that won't be enough
1:49:41
Speaker 1: to win that primary, and I don't expect him to
1:49:44
Speaker 1: have much of a chance in a problem in general.
1:49:47
Speaker 1: But that is why I don't put that seat in
1:49:49
Speaker 1: the top fourteen yet. But that doesn't mean I'm not watching.
1:49:53
Speaker 1: But if you think I've left one out, maybe some
1:49:55
Speaker 1: of you think Tim Kaine and Virginia. Either way, I'd
1:49:59
Speaker 1: love to hear from you on the reaction of that list.
1:50:07
Speaker 1: Ask Chuck, all right, it's Q and a time. First
1:50:12
Speaker 1: question comes from James and he even starts, Hey it's
1:50:14
Speaker 1: James again. Well hi James, he goes the Texan living
1:50:16
Speaker 1: in France, go mustangs. Appreciate the SMU shout out. You
1:50:20
Speaker 1: recently mentioned the collapse of the Whig Party and the
1:50:21
Speaker 1: possibility that one of today's parties could disappear. But I've
1:50:24
Speaker 1: noticed in places like East Texas that quote Trump conservatives
1:50:27
Speaker 1: seem to identify more with Trump than with the Republican
1:50:29
Speaker 1: party itself. Given that, does that suggest Republicans might actually
1:50:32
Speaker 1: be at more risk of splitting even if their bases larger,
1:50:35
Speaker 1: or is that just a localized trend rather than something broader? Actually, James, Look,
1:50:41
Speaker 1: this was a trend for a while. That was where
1:50:44
Speaker 1: you saw the party was more magat Trump than it
1:50:47
Speaker 1: was Republican. One of the great barometers, and it's a question.
1:50:52
Speaker 1: I'm proud of my old polling partners at the at
1:50:55
Speaker 1: NBC News, Bill McInturff and Jeff Horwitz. They want to
1:51:00
Speaker 1: We wanted to do this question early do you identify
1:51:02
Speaker 1: This goes all the way back to sixteen and we'd
1:51:04
Speaker 1: been doing this at NBC. They've been doing it now
1:51:07
Speaker 1: in a decade, and now other polls have done this too,
1:51:09
Speaker 1: and I'm glad it should be replicated where you simply ask,
1:51:14
Speaker 1: you know, those that identify as a Republican, do you
1:51:16
Speaker 1: identify more with Donald Trump and the Make America Great movement?
1:51:20
Speaker 1: Or do you define yourself more as a Republican less,
1:51:25
Speaker 1: you know, non you know, basically not MAGA. And the number,
1:51:29
Speaker 1: the number has been you know, essentially it fluctuates with
1:51:33
Speaker 1: with the with basically the perception of his presidency, right,
1:51:38
Speaker 1: and when the pre when it's not going well, more
1:51:40
Speaker 1: people start identifying as Republican. When it appears to be
1:51:43
Speaker 1: going well, more Republicans start identifying as Mega. So it
1:51:47
Speaker 1: really is part of the cult of personality aspect of
1:51:52
Speaker 1: things with him. James, So, I I in fact, I
1:51:57
Speaker 1: you know, I think if he said he wanted to
1:52:02
Speaker 1: split off, I do think he'd bring a third of
1:52:06
Speaker 1: the party with him if he chose to do that.
1:52:12
Speaker 1: I think a year ago he could have renamed the
1:52:15
Speaker 1: Republican Party the Make America Great Again Party and you
1:52:19
Speaker 1: wouldn't have had any objections. Inside you'd had some. But
1:52:26
Speaker 1: my guess is it had been done. It had been
1:52:29
Speaker 1: it had been changed, you know, one of the interesting
1:52:32
Speaker 1: little things that he hasn't done yet that I'm expecting
1:52:34
Speaker 1: him to do. So, you know, each party has uses,
1:52:38
Speaker 1: you know, has their big fundraising dinners in each state
1:52:42
Speaker 1: for the state parties, and so in the Democrats, for
1:52:45
Speaker 1: decades it was Jefferson Jackson Day Dinners, meaning it was
1:52:48
Speaker 1: in honor of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson, sort of
1:52:50
Speaker 1: foundational people of the Democrats of the Democratic Party. Well,
1:52:55
Speaker 1: of course, the modern Democratic Party feels less connected to
1:52:58
Speaker 1: Jefferson and Jackson these days. So then it became, you know,
1:53:02
Speaker 1: the rose of you know, Roosevelt Kennedy or do you
1:53:05
Speaker 1: do Obama Roosevelt Dinners or whatever you call them. They've
1:53:09
Speaker 1: been coming up with different ones. On the Republican side.
1:53:12
Speaker 1: You know, you had Lincoln for years it was just
1:53:15
Speaker 1: Lincoln Day Dinners, and it was always Lincoln, you know,
1:53:18
Speaker 1: because that was their sort of foundational So both parties
1:53:21
Speaker 1: use their founders. Then you had some parties about fifteen
1:53:24
Speaker 1: or twenty years ago Lincoln Reagan dinners had Reagan to it.
1:53:28
Speaker 1: Some of them just went to Reagan. I've been waiting
1:53:32
Speaker 1: for Trump to sort of force all these state parties
1:53:34
Speaker 1: to call them the Trump Reagan Dinners, or the Trump
1:53:36
Speaker 1: Lincoln Dinners, or just the Trump Dinners in some form.
1:53:42
Speaker 1: He hasn't done that yet, but that's just the type
1:53:44
Speaker 1: of legacy. I think it's one of those things that
1:53:46
Speaker 1: hasn't been pointed out to him yet. And as soon
1:53:48
Speaker 1: as somebody lets him know. Hey, you know, you should,
1:53:52
Speaker 1: you know, if you really want to make sure the
1:53:54
Speaker 1: Trump name lives on in the Republican Party after you leave,
1:53:57
Speaker 1: you should, you know, make sure you pass proclamations and
1:54:00
Speaker 1: all these state parties to rename their annual fundraising dinner
1:54:04
Speaker 1: after you, Donald J. Trump. So I do think that's
1:54:09
Speaker 1: you know, that's something, like I said, he hasn't noticed
1:54:11
Speaker 1: that yet, but he will and it'll likely happen. But
1:54:15
Speaker 1: to go back to you the heart of your question,
1:54:17
Speaker 1: I just don't think right now. I think we're starting
1:54:19
Speaker 1: to see. You know, for the longest time, Donald Trump
1:54:23
Speaker 1: seemed to be immune to political gravity, or be immune
1:54:28
Speaker 1: to the normal rules of politics. But you know what
1:54:31
Speaker 1: we're learning over the last year, he's not immune to this.
1:54:35
Speaker 2: Right.
1:54:35
Speaker 1: He may be able to jawbone his way out of
1:54:39
Speaker 1: a disastrous news day and take it to a mediocre
1:54:41
Speaker 1: news day, but he can't jawbone. He can't gaslight his
1:54:45
Speaker 1: way out of this economy, and he can't gaslight his
1:54:48
Speaker 1: way out of the impacted tariffs and the war and
1:54:51
Speaker 1: all that stuff. So, you know, you know, to me,
1:54:56
Speaker 1: we're in Lane Duck territory.
1:54:58
Speaker 2: He is.
1:54:59
Speaker 1: I think This is a case where he's already got
1:55:03
Speaker 1: He's already a lame duck president. It just we haven't
1:55:07
Speaker 1: collectively declared it yet, right it is. I think he's
1:55:12
Speaker 1: a lame duck president. He has less political capital than
1:55:15
Speaker 1: he's ever had. He's got more Republicans questioning what he's
1:55:19
Speaker 1: doing in Iran in ways publicly right now. So I
1:55:22
Speaker 1: think he's already hit lame duck status. I think we're
1:55:24
Speaker 1: at the point where the Trump presidency is probably already over,
1:55:29
Speaker 1: but the term isn't And what do I mean by over?
1:55:31
Speaker 1: When you're when you no longer can politically influence the weather. Now, Look,
1:55:37
Speaker 1: he's erratic, so he is willing to do things to
1:55:40
Speaker 1: be influential. That at George W. Bush when he hit
1:55:43
Speaker 1: lame duck status, was like, hey, I'm gonna, I'm not
1:55:45
Speaker 1: gonna You know, he was in due no harm mode, right,
1:55:48
Speaker 1: Barack Obama at the end, do no harm mode. You know,
1:55:52
Speaker 1: most secondary presidents when they realize they've they've hit that
1:55:55
Speaker 1: point where they're just there's fatigue out there, whatever you
1:55:58
Speaker 1: want to call it, they get it. Well, we know
1:56:02
Speaker 1: this guy never gets it. So I suspect though, that
1:56:09
Speaker 1: you're just gonna if you follow this national trend that
1:56:14
Speaker 1: more than you're not going to see his approval rating
1:56:17
Speaker 1: drop anymore. But a real sign of Republicans trying to
1:56:22
Speaker 1: put distance between themselves and Trump is when that question
1:56:26
Speaker 1: I just talked about at the beginning, which is do
1:56:31
Speaker 1: you identify more with the MAGA movement or with the
1:56:34
Speaker 1: Republican Party? And I think that Republican Party number is
1:56:37
Speaker 1: only going to grow and grow and grow, and that
1:56:41
Speaker 1: to me is the tea leaf to read to figure out, Oh,
1:56:45
Speaker 1: his influence in the party is waning. Next question comes
1:56:49
Speaker 1: from Adam b and Davy Florida, and I know he's
1:56:52
Speaker 1: I think I've had Adam from Davy. Davy is in
1:56:56
Speaker 1: Broward County. For those of you wondering hello again, I
1:56:59
Speaker 1: hate being the cynical, but with the House majority so tight,
1:57:01
Speaker 1: was our backroom deal for Eric Swaller Antony Gonzalez to
1:57:03
Speaker 1: both resign at the same time as do not influence
1:57:05
Speaker 1: the balance of the chamber? Tell me I'm wrong, Please,
1:57:07
Speaker 1: you are not wrong, Adham.
1:57:09
Speaker 2: This is not.
1:57:11
Speaker 1: This backroom deal might have even been in the front room, right,
1:57:16
Speaker 1: like I don't know if they were whispering. Even this
1:57:18
Speaker 1: is right the numbers of the numbers. I think the
1:57:21
Speaker 1: reason Mills, you know it is once one resigned, the
1:57:24
Speaker 1: other resigned right like it was. It was more orchestrated.
1:57:30
Speaker 1: And yes, this is all right. The reason you haven't
1:57:33
Speaker 1: had Republicans say a full on why why both parties
1:57:38
Speaker 1: leadership has been so has it an even rank and
1:57:41
Speaker 1: file maybe calling for resignations, but the leadership have been yes,
1:57:44
Speaker 1: he should not seek reelection. But they're constantly worried about
1:57:48
Speaker 1: those numbers, right for the margin in the House. So
1:57:52
Speaker 1: there's no doubt that a one for one made it easier.
1:57:56
Speaker 1: And it may be how Corey Mills and schriphilp Sir
1:58:00
Speaker 1: Phyllis McCormick the lone member of Congress who may get
1:58:05
Speaker 1: kicked out not for sexual misconduct but for financial misconduct.
1:58:11
Speaker 1: The fact that it's one D and one R also
1:58:13
Speaker 1: is likely to, I think, make it more likely they
1:58:16
Speaker 1: both go or they both stay. But answer is obvious. Yes,
1:58:22
Speaker 1: Y in Arizona Rights, Hey Chuck in the desert that
1:58:24
Speaker 1: is Arizona politics. Your podcast is an oasis. I appreciate
1:58:27
Speaker 1: that you could have named a dozen moments in Trump's
1:58:31
Speaker 1: presidency that could be made into a Veep episode. It's
1:58:33
Speaker 1: a slow pitch over the plate. Here's mine, Rubio's shoes.
1:58:36
Speaker 1: My girl that you picked as the next Jeopardy host,
1:58:39
Speaker 1: by the way, would have been fun. Hey, I was
1:58:43
Speaker 1: always I actually would have loved a shot at auditioning
1:58:46
Speaker 1: for Jeopardy, I remember, is one of the few things
1:58:49
Speaker 1: I've ever hate. I was like, hey, let me try that.
1:58:53
Speaker 1: I got to. I've done Celebrity Jeopardy a couple of times,
1:58:55
Speaker 1: and I had a blast. One time I won, one
1:58:57
Speaker 1: time I didn't. I lost the se So power to
1:59:01
Speaker 1: the independent journalists out there. I love sc so good
1:59:05
Speaker 1: shot out there. But you, I think you just you
1:59:10
Speaker 1: You were better on the button. And that's the whole trick.
1:59:12
Speaker 1: It's it's timing of the button. Everybody's got the answers.
1:59:15
Speaker 1: Pretty smart group of people up there, But it's a
1:59:19
Speaker 1: it's the button. I will admit. Not many game shows
1:59:23
Speaker 1: you know that are match game. I know what you're thinking,
1:59:26
Speaker 1: match game. Please her her socks were so tight, right,
1:59:33
Speaker 1: never mind I as a kid and then in college
1:59:37
Speaker 1: right when the game show network started. There is nothing
1:59:40
Speaker 1: like old reruns of the seventies match game for uncomfortable
1:59:45
Speaker 1: triple and quadruple on tendras with all those sort of
1:59:50
Speaker 1: you know, late stage actors from the sixties who were
1:59:53
Speaker 1: just you know, collecting a few appearance checks those game
1:59:57
Speaker 1: show networks and they were amazing. So I appreciate the
2:00:01
Speaker 1: Jeopardy shutout one hundred percent. Ken Jennings, you need to
2:00:04
Speaker 1: sub count me in. Brother. Put it this way. My
2:00:07
Speaker 1: mom would be happy about this, Okay. She loves her
2:00:10
Speaker 1: some Jeopardy. The Rubyo shoe, the whole thing with Trump
2:00:14
Speaker 1: and the shoes. Right, you know, Donald Trump has a
2:00:18
Speaker 1: picture in his head of what everybody should look like
2:00:21
Speaker 1: in certain right. He always talks about central casting, right,
2:00:24
Speaker 1: whatever it is, you're central casting, you're central casting, and
2:00:27
Speaker 1: that's all part of it. So I find it hilarious
2:00:31
Speaker 1: that these cabinet secretaries are getting these floor Seim shoes.
2:00:35
Speaker 1: And I know them well. My father was a Floorsheim
2:00:37
Speaker 1: shoe guy. He abought one pair of year and he
2:00:40
Speaker 1: wore those suckers still there was all and he'd get
2:00:42
Speaker 1: him resold once and then you know, it was sort
2:00:46
Speaker 1: of about every three years he purged a pair. But
2:00:49
Speaker 1: he had he was flat footed, he'd super white, so
2:00:52
Speaker 1: it was always ten and a half triple ease. He
2:00:55
Speaker 1: had to get the triple e and floorsh and made
2:00:57
Speaker 1: that triple e dress shoe. And it's just I guess
2:01:01
Speaker 1: that was what all business men in the seventies and eighties.
2:01:05
Speaker 1: That was the only business shoot you know have, you know,
2:01:09
Speaker 1: you know, within sort of middle class businessman prices is
2:01:14
Speaker 1: not necessarily the high end stuff. Good grief. I mean
2:01:20
Speaker 1: my memory of those floor site shoeses are also super heavy.
2:01:23
Speaker 1: It's like walking around with weights on your feet. But
2:01:25
Speaker 1: you're right, it's it's.
2:01:28
Speaker 2: You know, the shoe thing.
2:01:30
Speaker 1: By the way, Ray, there's so many times you do
2:01:35
Speaker 1: want to just laugh at Trump and some of the stuff.
2:01:38
Speaker 1: It's the it is, you can't believe how he behaves,
2:01:41
Speaker 1: You can't believe what he does. And then you realize,
2:01:44
Speaker 1: oh my god, the impact is so serious, which probably
2:01:46
Speaker 1: shouldn't be laughing, but oh my god, isn't this weirdly hilarious?
2:01:51
Speaker 1: That's the Trump presidency in a nutshell. Matthew K longtime listener,
2:01:55
Speaker 1: first time question. I was born and raised in the
2:01:57
Speaker 1: Central Valley in Fresno, Ah. My wife worked and lived
2:02:02
Speaker 1: in modesto and certainly no sort of way around the
2:02:05
Speaker 1: Central Valley a little bit. I've learned a lot about
2:02:08
Speaker 1: the Central Valley back in the day, so I hope,
2:02:11
Speaker 1: I hope it means I can connect with you on this, Matthew.
2:02:13
Speaker 1: But anyway, Matthew, you right outsiders would characterize the state
2:02:16
Speaker 1: is quite liberal, but it is actually fairly conservative outside
2:02:19
Speaker 1: of the big coastal hubs producing the likes of Kevin
2:02:21
Speaker 1: McCarthy and Devin Nuness. Two questions, What would it take
2:02:24
Speaker 1: for Democrats to win these voters over in such an
2:02:26
Speaker 1: agricultural dominant area too? Do Democrats need to bring back
2:02:30
Speaker 1: things like the Blue Dog Coalition my former Rep. Jim
2:02:32
Speaker 1: Costa of California and Joe Donley of Indiana we're a
2:02:35
Speaker 1: part of to make the party more competitive in these
2:02:37
Speaker 1: rural areas. Go Irish and I look forward to our
2:02:39
Speaker 1: Revenge game this fall. Hey, buddy, it circled man. It's
2:02:43
Speaker 1: November seventh. That game's at South Bend. It is the
2:02:46
Speaker 1: first Saturday after the mid terms. Timing couldn't be better
2:02:51
Speaker 1: for my schedule, your schedule, all of our schedules. So
2:02:54
Speaker 1: I appreciate our friends at notre name and at NBC
2:02:57
Speaker 1: because it's an NBC game, a prime time trust me, right,
2:03:01
Speaker 1: say only I think the right now. It's likely the
2:03:06
Speaker 1: only ranked team Notre Dame place. Now I'm hoping my
2:03:10
Speaker 1: son's school SMU is ranked by the time they get going.
2:03:13
Speaker 1: And there may be a couple others in the ACC
2:03:15
Speaker 1: that overperform, But this feels like it's notre and it's
2:03:19
Speaker 1: probably a game that may matter more for Notre Dame
2:03:21
Speaker 1: than it does Miami, but who knows, who knows, But
2:03:24
Speaker 1: this feels like the biggest game in South Bend between
2:03:26
Speaker 1: Miami Notre Dame since the infamous game of what you
2:03:32
Speaker 1: may refer to as Catholics Versus Convicts what I refer
2:03:35
Speaker 1: to as the Cleveland Gary They shouldn't have the Cleveland
2:03:40
Speaker 1: Gary did not fumble game, and yet we still almost
2:03:44
Speaker 1: won that game but for a two point conversion. See
2:03:47
Speaker 1: I'm not so you're asking about you know, look as
2:03:52
Speaker 1: and hopefully you heard my intro here. And I think
2:03:55
Speaker 1: the most interesting one of the most interesting angles of
2:03:57
Speaker 1: the Hungarian result of the Hungry election is the fact
2:04:01
Speaker 1: that it was a former member of Orbon's inner circle
2:04:04
Speaker 1: that ends up being the leader of the new opposition.
2:04:08
Speaker 1: The point is is that that was an ability right.
2:04:11
Speaker 1: He was able to give the permission slip to the
2:04:13
Speaker 1: rural supporters of Orbon that maybe we're realizing, yeah, this
2:04:16
Speaker 1: economy sucks. I don't think Orbon knows what he's doing.
2:04:19
Speaker 1: Maybe this is politic. He's so obsessed with power and
2:04:22
Speaker 1: all this corruption and it took So you're asking what
2:04:27
Speaker 1: would it take for Democrats to get back to being
2:04:30
Speaker 1: able to succeed in the Central Valley right, to be
2:04:32
Speaker 1: sort of seen as a friend of the farmer, friend
2:04:34
Speaker 1: of the egg community in particular. You know, some of
2:04:38
Speaker 1: them are you know, the cultural issue right, guns turned
2:04:41
Speaker 1: out to be one of those divisive issues. But I
2:04:43
Speaker 1: do think this is where the economy kicks in. And
2:04:46
Speaker 1: this is where immigration. You know, it's in these communities
2:04:48
Speaker 1: where they're not anti immigrant. If it wasn't for scheduled
2:04:56
Speaker 1: you know, literally sometimes attiring temporary workers from Mexico. We're
2:05:00
Speaker 1: here legally on temporary work permits. So if you're you know,
2:05:07
Speaker 1: in the near term, I think there isn't it's you know,
2:05:11
Speaker 1: Democrats are just so afraid of the immigration issue. They
2:05:13
Speaker 1: don't know how to do it. But that's where I
2:05:16
Speaker 1: actually think that there's an opportunity in the Central Valley
2:05:19
Speaker 1: if they chose to take it, you know, whether it's
2:05:21
Speaker 1: on tariffs, making it about hey, he promised you this,
2:05:25
Speaker 1: he lied to you, right type of things. So, but
2:05:29
Speaker 1: who can be the who it is? I think the
2:05:31
Speaker 1: message is possible, The question is who's the messenger? Right,
2:05:36
Speaker 1: you brought up some interesting blue dogs, you know, you
2:05:41
Speaker 1: forgot one that goes back even before Jim Costa. It's
2:05:45
Speaker 1: Gary Conduct right. Conduct Country is what that area at
2:05:48
Speaker 1: one time was known as as well right, and he
2:05:51
Speaker 1: had a very blue dog type of personality, you know,
2:05:54
Speaker 1: culturally not super conservative, but not super liberal. And you're right,
2:05:59
Speaker 1: by the way, the same thing to be said about
2:06:01
Speaker 1: New York.
2:06:01
Speaker 2: Right.
2:06:02
Speaker 1: New York is considered this deep blue state. But if
2:06:03
Speaker 1: you get rid of the New York City metro area,
2:06:05
Speaker 1: which is a gigantic part population wise, the rest of
2:06:09
Speaker 1: the state is Ohio politically right, which means it's got
2:06:12
Speaker 1: a slight red lean to it. I think what you're
2:06:15
Speaker 1: trying to say about the Central Valley is true. Right.
2:06:17
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, basically all the coastal cities are
2:06:20
Speaker 1: pretty blue, and then the further east you move, Frankly,
2:06:24
Speaker 1: wherever you go, the less liberal it gets doesn't mean,
2:06:29
Speaker 1: it's not blue like Pump Springs used to be red.
2:06:31
Speaker 1: Not red anymore, but it's certainly less liberal than the
2:06:36
Speaker 1: coastal areas. But to you know, so, I do think
2:06:41
Speaker 1: messenger matters right and who it is you know, I
2:06:45
Speaker 1: think you know a military veteran who grew up in
2:06:49
Speaker 1: the community, you know, leam Panetta Walnut farmer always was
2:06:52
Speaker 1: able to do pretty well when his district stretched into
2:06:56
Speaker 1: that area. So if you're of the community, if you're
2:07:00
Speaker 1: of the agribusiness sector, I think it matters as well too.
2:07:05
Speaker 1: But I think the message is easy to come up with.
2:07:08
Speaker 1: The harder thing is the messenger because the messengers the
2:07:12
Speaker 1: deeds have been discredited a bit on some of this stuff.
2:07:15
Speaker 1: But I think there's certainly plenty of opportunity and it
2:07:17
Speaker 1: just goes to he promised you this and he didn't deliver,
2:07:21
Speaker 1: you know, that's where you would begin that conversation. Next
2:07:27
Speaker 1: question comes from Brad and he says, be the last
2:07:29
Speaker 1: question we take for today. Greetings again from Grand Rapids.
2:07:33
Speaker 1: I really appreciate you engaged with listener questions. I'm curious
2:07:35
Speaker 1: what you'd recommend is the best national and international news
2:07:37
Speaker 1: sources for the average person trying to stay informed. I've
2:07:40
Speaker 1: relied on outlets like The Washington Post and NPR, but
2:07:42
Speaker 1: I've noticed some shifts and wonder there are better options
2:07:45
Speaker 1: out there today. Maybe this could even be a top
2:07:46
Speaker 1: five segment. Thanks brad Well. I appreciate the idea of
2:07:49
Speaker 1: a top five on that. I'll just tell you my
2:07:53
Speaker 1: media diet, right I Look, I consume any newsletter that's
2:07:58
Speaker 1: by a a journalist who at least I know plays
2:08:03
Speaker 1: by the same set of rules, meaning if they've got
2:08:05
Speaker 1: a bias, it's consistent. Like I'll take a consistent right
2:08:09
Speaker 1: leaning bias or left leaning bias as long as it's
2:08:11
Speaker 1: consistent and it's predictable and I can understand where they're
2:08:14
Speaker 1: coming from. Look, I think I think Axios and punch
2:08:19
Speaker 1: Bowl probably are covering the the sort of the minute
2:08:24
Speaker 1: to minute minutia of how the white I mean Gaxios
2:08:26
Speaker 1: is pretty plugged into the White House. Punch Bowl obviously,
2:08:29
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, the Wall Street Journal, I think they're killing it.
2:08:32
Speaker 1: And when it comes to White House coverage, and I think,
2:08:35
Speaker 1: you know, between Axios in the Wall Street Journal, I
2:08:37
Speaker 1: think you're going to get the best. I think you're
2:08:41
Speaker 1: going to have the best understanding of what's really happening.
2:08:43
Speaker 1: And I think they're the best sourced in this white
2:08:46
Speaker 1: house right now, less of the Times, less of the Post. Look,
2:08:51
Speaker 1: the Times is still it is still the dominant place
2:08:54
Speaker 1: for international news. And it's not even close to just
2:08:57
Speaker 1: have more people right, more people on the ground, more
2:09:02
Speaker 1: resources to cover the international stories. Look, i'd love to
2:09:09
Speaker 1: see a newsphere. It's a it's definitely a subscription app.
2:09:11
Speaker 1: I think we're doing a good job on the particularly
2:09:14
Speaker 1: on the foreign policy hotspots. It's definitely the current strength
2:09:20
Speaker 1: of newspare right now. But I'll tell you, let me
2:09:23
Speaker 1: give you a I want to give them one more
2:09:24
Speaker 1: shout out to what I use. And and by the way, look,
2:09:28
Speaker 1: there's still good reporters at the Post. You know, I
2:09:31
Speaker 1: crap on the on the Post management and leadership, and
2:09:33
Speaker 1: they've gutted parts of the paper that that to me
2:09:37
Speaker 1: are unforgivable sins, and and I will I will be
2:09:41
Speaker 1: bitter about it for some time. They still have some
2:09:45
Speaker 1: good national reporters and and their coverage of the agencies.
2:09:48
Speaker 1: And you know, Matt Murray is a good managing editor.
2:09:52
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm still you know, I wouldn't ignore the Post,
2:09:56
Speaker 1: but I think their editorial page is crap. I just
2:09:59
Speaker 1: do other than the George Will column and David Ignacious column.
2:10:02
Speaker 1: I don't think everything else feels like it's written by
2:10:05
Speaker 1: you know, seventeen year old want to be opinion writers.
2:10:14
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what always catches me up when I've like,
2:10:17
Speaker 1: if I've been busy running around town doing a bunch
2:10:20
Speaker 1: of interviews, I need to quickly catch up Political Wire.
2:10:24
Speaker 1: There's nothing that is just as consistent at always bringing
2:10:30
Speaker 1: you what you need to know, particularly when they have
2:10:32
Speaker 1: to do with a campaign angle, which is what I'm
2:10:34
Speaker 1: always into. You know, the Political Wire. It's free, there's
2:10:38
Speaker 1: a paid version of it. I would highly recommend subscribing
2:10:41
Speaker 1: to my friend taking Goddard stuff. I mean, he's been
2:10:44
Speaker 1: doing this a long time and it's another place he
2:10:51
Speaker 1: I think it's it's better than trying to go on
2:10:54
Speaker 1: Twitter to find out what you've missed in the last
2:10:56
Speaker 1: hour or two. It's certainly where I would go in
2:11:00
Speaker 1: steat of social media. I hope that helps, all right.
2:11:04
Speaker 1: And with that, man, I was really excited about Paul
2:11:11
Speaker 1: Skins versus Kate Covally and that opening game for the
2:11:14
Speaker 1: Nats and Pirates, and that was brutal. I hope, I hope.
2:11:20
Speaker 1: I can you know after feeling a little bit better
2:11:23
Speaker 1: about a weekend's sweep against the Burgers. But hey, I
2:11:26
Speaker 1: will confess to something. I want to see the Pirates
2:11:29
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. I've always had a soft spot for
2:11:31
Speaker 1: the Pirates. Seventy nine Pirates World Series champs are one
2:11:34
Speaker 1: of my favorite teams I've ever followed. That wasn't my
2:11:37
Speaker 1: favorite team, if that makes sense. You know, I once
2:11:41
Speaker 1: the that year the Dodgers didn't make it. I just
2:11:43
Speaker 1: loved Willie Stargel would copy that, you know, I swear
2:11:47
Speaker 1: to this day I could. You know, I tried to
2:11:49
Speaker 1: become a switch hitter just so I could do all
2:11:53
Speaker 1: of the pre at bats batspins that he used to do.
2:11:58
Speaker 1: And I'd like to think that I could have. I
2:11:59
Speaker 1: could have done my good Willie. So I confess to
2:12:03
Speaker 1: having a nice soft spot for the Pirates on that one.
2:12:06
Speaker 1: So but hopefully the next time I see in twenty
2:12:09
Speaker 1: four hours, the Nats have an opportunity where I have
2:12:14
Speaker 1: actually won another series. And with that, I'll see you
2:12:18
Speaker 1: in twenty four hours