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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 9 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: live for my time in John Home Studio, and I'm
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: joined as always buy my co host, my companion, Mike
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Padre my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Happy Halloween, Chad.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I should mention to people who are listening, Simon is
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: not going to sound like this the whole time. Simon
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: is wearing a scream mask in honor of Halloween. I'm
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: so scared. I don't know if I'm more scared of
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: the decisions we have to make today. What our big
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: balls bet of the week is going to be, what
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: our foxhol is going to be, That I stayed up
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: so late watching the Dodger Yankees last night that I
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: was live betting the Bulls when they were twenty down
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: and won my bet because I have so much confidence
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: in this team. Today is our NFL Week nine Best
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Bets episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our five
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: picks in the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest presented by Bet three six five sign
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: up now Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We'll get into
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: the foxhol We'll give out our Tommy John Big Balls
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: bet of the week. We're gonna discuss Simon's biggest bets.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: We're gonna discuss our boosted money line Underdog parlay, which
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: you can get at Bet three sixty five. We'll talk
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: about the Underdog Round Robin, and so much more. Bets
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: are rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: As our volume podcast, Boss Colin Coward likes to say
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: five and now new Bet three sixty five customers get
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: dot sign up using promo code favorites, deposit ten dollars,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: place the bet for five dollars to get two hundred
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty five must be
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during the season. We
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: like to hear how the wise guys are responding to
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. The lines
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: move based on our conversations, and the pros feel compelled
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Hello there, I'm talking Rain.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone rang, somebody saying.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: Maybe what you do man?
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's there for a game that me and Chad
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: probably aren't gonna talk about today, So we'll just got
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: out of the way. People know the professionals love the Jets.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I don't get it. Chat doesn't get it. Apparently the
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: trends do point to it, though, after reading Evan's article,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, I can see why they liked this spot.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: There are some some nice spots here to take this
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Jets team. Historically, this is a good spot to take them.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I just don't think we've ever think we've seen something
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: like this historically with this team, and I know that
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: their record doesn't reflect who they are because of how
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: bad their kicker has been. And they look look like
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: they listened to us last week chat or on a
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: shit say. On Tuesday, they got rid of their kicker. Finally,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: I think it's a little too late. I know Houston
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: has a ton of injuries. This got up to two
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: and a half at one point. I don know if
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: you saw Houston get up two and a half. I
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: had to take a piece of it once I got
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: to two and a half. Now it's back down to
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: one and a half. So do you want to bet
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: with the professionals tonight? They're not always right, but they
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: do like the Jets, But I am going to go
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: against them on the Houston side. All right, let's get
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: to the other games that actually matter. Off the top,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, Chad talked about Tuesday, both liked it. Weren't
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: really sure what to do with it though, just because
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: the number had move so much. You know, it's it's
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: now down to one and a half for Cleveland. I
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: don't know where you're at with this Cleveland team. I
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: get why these guys are coming from. My whole pushback
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: to them was, you guys are all talking is if
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: you're not the ones that got this at three and
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: two and a half. Now me and Chad are coming
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: in for the scraps at one and a half. If
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: we like the Browns. That was my only pushback. I
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: get why the professionals love the Browns here, they love
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: the number, they think they're gonna win out right, totally
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: get it. Their season's turned around. Chad will go into
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: I guess more. But you nailed it when you said
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: it's the Winston effect.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: That's my hesitation here another game. I mean, you both
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: love the professionals are against us on Miami Dolphins, but wow,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I know there's some strong Dolphin money coming in. I
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: just think they're betting or wrong. Chad, I just think
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: they're betting wrong. I really do so. I haven't changed
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: my position on that. Still like the Bills, still think
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: that's a good spot for us, but shocked to find
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: out that a lot of professionals like that other side.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: For games, we love the pros love Green Bay, no brainer.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: That's when we'll dive way more into professionals love that.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: I still think it's gonna go down to three. A
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: couple of books have already gone to three. Get the
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: three and a half while you still can. I just
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: think professional money. Once Jordan Love is given them all
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: good good to go today or tomorrow, this line will
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: drop to three again. We haven't talked much about that.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe we will more today. Giants. The professionals actually liked Washington.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: It's a little split. It's not as clear cut as
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: I thought I was going to be. It's interesting, Yeah,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: I think it's something we talked about where this Giants
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: team is just very it's just bad. We've talked this
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: year about these bad teams and how bad they are.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones still isn't thrown a touchdown at home. It
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: is week nine.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm glad to hear this. We're gonna let's le's
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: get to the next one.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: We'll get into that more.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Because like, the more research I did, the less I
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: liked your opinion about the Giants, So.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: I know I'm a sucker. I love the Giants again,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: we both like. I don't think we're going to put
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: in our contest though, Tampa. I've heard some really smart
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: groups of coming on Tampa to me, that's such a
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: bet me and Chad always make just because it's a
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: huge number against the Chiefs. I don't think there's anything
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: sharp about it. Though I can't get a good read
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: on it. I got no interest putting this one in
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: another one that maybe we'll talk a little bit about
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: just a Again, we're on opposite sides of it. Professionals
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: like the Ravens, I like Denver. Maybe you want to
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: dive into that one more, But I think we're not
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: missing the mark here, that we're just playing the number
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: because it's such a big number and it's that Ravens defense.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: Their view of it is this Ravens team is going
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: to roll this Denver team, that they're better all of it.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: They believe in all of this Ravens hype, and especially
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: even after reading Eman's article, there's trends say take the
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: nine here with this Denver not only is Sharpayne great
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: is a big dog here. We talked about lamar struggles,
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: especially on it's above three and a half. He's just
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: a different quarterback. They usually played down to their competition levels.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot to dive into. Chack pretty split
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: this week between us and the professionals.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Well, that's interesting, and they touched on all the games
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: and sort of the challenges I was having as I
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: dug in deeper the past forty eight hours, as I
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: try to reimagine how we're framing our arguments here last week,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Week eight, Public nine and six, week before ten and four,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: week before that ten three and one. So after five
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: weeks of getting crushed to the tune of the worst
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: start in twenty years for the public, they are now
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: dominating the past three weeks. So you know, we'd like
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: to fade the public. It's gone okay for us in
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: certain spots. Let's see how it rolls this week. First
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: game up Denver plus nine and a half at Baltimore.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: As I go through this, the reasons to back Denver.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Their defense is fierce amongst the league leaders in pressure rate,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: first in yards per attempt passing, tied for fourth in
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: yards per carry, all great pressure points against a Lamar
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Jackson who was very efficient in the pocket, and a
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry led run game Baltimore terrible in the second half.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: That buildes well if you want to bet a dog
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: at a big number. They're now giving up more than
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: seventeen points per game in the second half worst in
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: the NFL. We know bow Knicks and the Broncos will
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: be slinging it no matter how late in the game
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: and what the score is. And we know, as you mentioned,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Lamar is a favorite Big number twenty nine and thirty
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: five in his career forty five percent against the spread.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I'm saying big number three or more. The reason we
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: don't like denver easy schedule. Bo Nicks is a wildcard
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: who can just as easily throw at least one pick
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: six to destroy the calculus. Denver's good against the Blitz.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Lamar is the best in the NFL against the Blitz.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: And there is the sentiment that the Ravens are like
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: two or three mistakes cleaned up from figuring it out
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: and destroying this team. And like, that's what I worry about.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: They had a like that was a cheap back door
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: cover the Commanders had against the Ravens a few weeks ago.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: If you didn't get if you got the seven and
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: a half, the Ravens won by seven because they gave
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: up some you know, a PI that put the Commanders
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: in field goal range. I could see that being the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: case here too. Like, I'm so split on this game.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I do not want to put in the contest. I
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: do not feel strongly about it.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's just because of bow knicks that
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: were both little weary, even though he is what three
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: and oh or four and o on the road this
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: season even and he's something yeah, four and oh. So
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, we can't knock it. The guys performed well
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: in the road and this team has as well, so
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: maybe our skepticism isn't warranted. But we just it's just
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: a numbers thing, right. I don't get why this number
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: is so large, and the books tend to know what
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: they're doing when they set numbers like this, but man,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: this this is a tough one to pass. Unluckily we
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: have other games we like more. But I'm gonna bet it.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: It's like the hot stove thing I got to touch
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: and make sure it's hot. That's how That's what I'm
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: doing here with this this Denver team. It's like, I know,
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: I know we shouldn't do it, but I kind of
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: have to do it, just because I'm so skeptical of this.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: This secondary for this Ravens team and people out there.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: You don't need to you don't need to take this one.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: You can wait and do in game best. I just
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: laid it out for you how you should bet this right.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: You should attack Denver in the second half, so you know,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: if they're down ten to nothing at a halftime or
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: fourteen three, maybe you'll get a better number and you
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: can just take them to cover the second half like that.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: That probably is to play for this contest, though, for
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: what we do here. If I'm just gonna take the
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: name the numbers strip from the get go, I'm gonna
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: go against the professionals here. I'll take Denver in this
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: big number. It's it's just to me, it's too big.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: If this was seven and a half maybe seven, I
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: could come around this Ravens team. The fact that it's
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: crossed seven and a half key number, eight and a half
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: key number and still at nine. I'll be the joke
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: public sucker. I'll take the nine.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the Ravens in the first half has been
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: sort of the sharp play this week if you read
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: anything on Action Network, if you listen to Stucky and
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Raybon on the Action Network podcast in their Sunday six
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: pack Stuck, he chose the Ravens first half. A couple
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: other stories on Action Network, they like the Ravens first half.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Evan probably has a ton of stats. I don't know
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: if he'll do it in his segment later about the
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Ravens in first half. If not, you know, ev you
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: can throw it in the chat and we'll bring them
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: up here. But the Ravens in the first half with
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh and with Lamar have really been, you know, unprecedentedly great.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: I think the number is probably about five if I
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: had to guess, So Ravens in the first half might
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: be a safer, not a safe play for the contest.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I will tell you. Normally I can make a list
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: of like five or six games I feel good about
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: that we're going to put in the contest. I could
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: not do that with this. Like I had two games,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yes, I feel great by this morning. I
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: maybe had three, But I like didn't feel great about
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of games. One of the games, like I
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: definitely started coming around to New England plus three and
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: a half at Tennessee. The trends back taking the Pats
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: do that. Teams off off a blowout loss, who are
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: then favored at home, only cover forty two percent of
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the time the following week. The past twenty years interesting
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: money and tickets both on the Pats, and this number
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: hasn't budge that worries me a little bit. Are we
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: getting Will Levis at QB seems likely? Are getting Jacoby
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Brivett seems likely? But then there's this, and we've talked
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: about this. Hey, the Titans think like they're tanking. They've
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: traded away every player of value. This week it was
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Deontay Johnson. I'm not I'm thinking about the Panthers, but
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the Titans stink. They've traded away their best players. The
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Titans just played the Lions. Teams coming off a game
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: against the Lions tend to creator the next game because
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: it is such a physical game. We just saw it
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: with the Vikings too. That is a hard road to
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: travel and then be a home favorite of more than
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: a field goal. That feels like an opportunity for us.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked on Tuesdays is a bizarre line. We
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: knew it was gonna be the public dog of the
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: week because everyone's you know, they're they're like us, They're
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: looking at this saying, what in the world, what is
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: this number? Why is it not just two and a
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: half or three? You're gonna give us the hook. If
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: it's a trap, me and chat will walk into it
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: holding hands. I mean, what else can we do here?
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: This is too good of a number. This Tennessee team
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: is terrible. How can you not better the Patriots to
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: win this game out right? As well? It's just everything
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: lines up where say what you want about this Patriots
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: team and how bad they are. We know it. We
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: know how bad Brissette is. We know how bad the receivers.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I think they're leading the league and drops they had
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: before Jacoby Meer, I mean, h Drake ny came in.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: They basically were at the thirty second in the league
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: and passes twenty yards downfield. It's it's bad with the Brissette,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: I get it, but it's not as bad as everything
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: that we just talked about Tennessee, especially if it's Will Levis.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: This guy just makes so many dumb mistakes and now
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: he knows he I mean, how can you find a
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: more desperate quarterback in this league? If he starts this
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: game right like he just he knows that he might
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: have one or two games left in his career. So
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: I'm with you on it, like I I'm with you
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: about the hesitation though, like we don't like that this
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: number hasn't budged. The books seem like they're setting something
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: up here, But we could say that for every week
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: this year, for the most part of this Tennessee team,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: there's been we are talking about, there's been a bunch
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: of games they were favorite at home against different teams,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: or the number didn't look right to mean you and
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: we avoided it, and that was a bad miss by us.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: We shouldn't have been avoiding betting against this Tennessee team.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: They've just been terrible all season. So I'm gonna do
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: my best not to let us get scared off by
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: this on Sunday if we still are getting three and
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I think it's their defense. I think people are looking
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: at their defense, which has performed well top ten in
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: many metrics, and I think it's sort of everyone keeps thinking, Okay,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: their defense can do enough to stop an opposing offense.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Even if you look at last week, right, they played
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the Lions fifty two points scored, but that's because of
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: turnovers and special teams. Jared Goff had eighty five yards
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: passing like the Titans had more often too production than
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: the Lions did, So I think they just keep thinking, Okay,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: every week this team will be able to prove that
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: they can stop somebody. But they don't play complimentary football.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: So every good play that the Titans make, every good
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: series the Titans have on defense gets given back and
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: more in a negative effect with what the offense does
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and so or special teams. Now, so I get it.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: I get it. It's it's a tough one. Like I
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: have it on my list of like final five. Me too,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: but I don't love it and it makes me a
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: little queasy. It does feel a little trappy, but not Foxholt.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: It's not our big balls Better the Week, because our
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: big balls Better the Week, presented by Tommy John. If
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: you got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Our big ball Better the Week. New Orleans at Carolina.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: This one is up to seven and a half. Simon,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: it was at seven, and I think it's trending at eight.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: It was at seven when we spoke on two. We
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: liked it. Then the Saints minus seven and a half. Look,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: it's it's oddly a pros Joe's game with the public
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: on the Panthers and the money on the Saints, and
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: like the money that has moved it to seven and
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: a half. I can't believe there are enough tickets on
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: this game to have any kind of credible formula at all.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: It is by far the least bet game of any
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: NFL game, according to the number of tickets tracked in
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app. I can't believe the majority of
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Panthers. But here we are. We live
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: in a world in which we have to choose between
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: the Saints and the Panthers. We've decided to cast our
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: lot with the Saints as more than touchdown favorites with
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: a on the road in the division, all bad trends
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: for us. YEP, a quarterback in Derek Carr who is
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: not just one of the worst in the NFL as
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a favorite, he is one step up from last as
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: a favorite against the spread in the past twenty years.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: He's got a coach who was amongst the worst ten
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: coaches against the spread in the past twenty years. But
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: we're doing it, and I feel.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: Fine, Yeah, you left out the best part. The Saints
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: have lost six games in a row since starting too,
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: and uh, I mean, we're seeing historical stuff here.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: So you know what, Yeah, this is You're right this
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: We slacked about it earlier and like I couldn't. I
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: was giving you a couple options, like for big balls,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: and this was on the list, and you chose this one,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, yeah, this makes sense, this one takes bass.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: We're finally doing it, though, I'm so happy on this show.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: We're finally fading this Carolina team for our fans.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: For a listener, No, we're fucked.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: That's what I was about to say. This is only
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: going to end in one way, and it's gonna be
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: us losing this as in one of over five, but
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: we have to do it. Carolina is so bad. They've
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: totally put on the season on the Saints on their hand.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: This feels like they're everything game right. This is where
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: they can maybe turn around this season. They need this
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: one desperately. They know if you lose this and you're
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: two and seven, you are done. But if you can
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: get to three and six, there's an outside chance. Obviously
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: they can somehow get to a wildcard, especially if they're
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: getting healthy at the right time. So the biggest thing
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: to us was just it. If it was Derek Carr,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: I was going to be on this number just because
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: he is the difference maker to that team We've seen offensively,
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: they just they run differently when he's back there. Right,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: they can run what they want to do, which is
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: run the ball with play action like that's what really
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: made them so great those first two weeks. Here comes
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: the Carolina team that struggles against a lot of what
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: the Saints want to do offensively. So I'm not gonna
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: let this huge numer scare me off. It's this This
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Panther team is that bad that this should be that high,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: even though it is the Saints team. And about time, Chad,
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: About time we fade a team that is one in
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: what eight or one in seven against the spread this season.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: So better late than never is what I always say.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: So I'm happy we're finally getting this this fade the
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers stream.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is historic for us. I don't
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: know in the history of us being brothers in arms,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: we've ever faded a team in this spot. We've passed.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: We've decided we wouldn't touch it because we didn't want
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: to tempt the betting gods and do something that is
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: so chalky and that. But it's not this week, but
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: in sort of historical terms, we don't want to bet
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: against this trend of a home dog. We don't want
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: to bet against this trade of the home dog in
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the division. It's one of those times we're just looking
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: at the matchup. We're seeing Derek Carr, who's healthy and
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: above excuse excuse me an above average quarterback when he's healthy,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: playing against the defense that cannot get pressure, cannot cover,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: gets blown out by everybody. We're believing our eyes. We
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: got a quarterback who really is as bad as we
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: think he is. This is the spot big balls better
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the week New Orleans Saints. Our sponsor Tommy John makes
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  Speaker 1: If you love Simon or and I, if you love
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• 21:35
  Speaker 1: dot com slash Favorites this next game. This is a
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: litmus test game to me. I've changed my mind on
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: this game, Dallas at Atlanta. Atlanta's a two and a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. I've changed my mind as often as
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Jerry Jones threatens reporters in the past forty eight hours.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Betting Atlanta feels like a trap. Feels like when I
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: walked into the Cincinnati bear trap last week and you
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: try to talk me out of it, called me a fool.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I didn't deal with it, and I got screwed. All
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: of Atlanta's defense has come, all of Atlanta's offense has
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: come by playing the Bucks twice and the Panthers. Kirk
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Cousins literally eight touchdowns one thousand yards against the Panthers
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: and the Bucks, like against any defense with a decent
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: pass rush and people who can cover, They're a mediocre team.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: So the question becomes, do the Cowboys have a decent
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: pass rush? Probably not. Micah Parsons still was not practiced.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: By the sounds of it from Mike McCarthy, he wasn't
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: close to getting back on the field. Cornerback Dron Bland
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: was expected to practice today. It's Thursday. We don't know
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: what's happened yet. Maybe the Cowboys we better in coverage.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Are they a team that has shown they have the
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: ability to respond to adversity?
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Not?
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Really. This is a split across the board. You know,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we didn't talk about it in sharp calls, Like I
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Cowboys on Tuesday. He kind of
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: talked me out of it. If this game gets to three,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I'd probably want to bet the Cowboys. I don't feel
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: good enough to put it in the contest for sure.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: No, No, I like Atlanta. I think Cowboys are just
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: a bad team. You know, last week we took him
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: because he thought they had major injuries with the forty
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: nine ers, and we should have adjusted right when Kittle
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: and Debo came back, that should have been our Marke.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: They move off it. We didn't take it seriously. What happened.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: Kittle had like the game of his life, right, He
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: dominated that game, and he kind of flipped it. They
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: lose by six. We faded this team against Pittsburgh once again.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: I'd make that bet ten out of ten times, especially
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team we've seen this year. We just got unlucky, right.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Dak drove the field on a fourth down, completed this
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: insane past his third receiver to beat us. Then they
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: beat the Giants, you know, and a kind of another
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: flukey win. And then they opened the season by beating Cleveland.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: So they have three wins this season easily could have
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: won maybe two wins. The Cowboys are just a bad team.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: They are so bad. That's why I can't imagine putting
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: money on them right now. That they got to be
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: feeling in the locker room and there's no adjustments to make.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: They can't stop the run, and they can't run the football.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: There's nothing they can do. Chad. They're dead in the water.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: There is no adjustments to be made, and all the players,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: it's just we knew coming to the season it was
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: gonna be bad for them. I didn't know it was
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: gonna be this bad for this Cowboys team. It's just
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: it's terrible. So could they steal this game? Chad? Yeah,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: I think you nailed it. Like whoever is the Ball Last?
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: I talked about this on Tuesday. That's why I wouldn't
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: bet it either. It's like bet I did bet Atlanta,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: I should say, but I wouldn't make this one over
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: five because it's whoever is the Ball Last? I could
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: see them winning this game, right, it's Cowboys Dak. He's
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: that good of a quarterback him and see that connection.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: They could drive the field. I mean, we had the
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: opportunity to get to forty nine ers. They could have
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: drove the field and got It's that upset win. I
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: think that's what we're gonna have every week with this
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Cowboys team. They play mediocre teams, right, and that's what
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: this Atlanta team is. We don't think they're that great
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: of a team. That's why we're both hesitant to take it.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: But yeah, there's threes out there if you do want
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys chat. I am on Atlanta, but it's one
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: of my smaller bets. I just I'm having a tough
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: time with this one, just as you just because we
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: don't really trust either of these teams right now for
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: a bunch of different reasons. So I'm with you. I'm
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: happy to pass on this one for the contest.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned Dak and CD like they're not
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: even connecting emotionally, do you know what I mean? Like
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: it feels like there's some thing missing in what is
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: supposed to be a simpatico relationship between the quarterback and
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: the receiver and I know it can be tempestuous at times,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: but like they got to be in the same page,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: and they don't seem to be. And I do think Dak,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: you know, we talked about this on Convinced Me. Kerner
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: talked about it, you know, referring to Dak as mal
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Santa and giving out under his rushing props he had
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: negative one rushing yard. He looks not just immobile, but
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: a statuesque back there. You could see it a few times.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: I think at one point Collins when he was rolling
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: out Chris Collins were said, he just looks like he
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: doesn't have it. Something weird is going on there. And
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: now they're giving these guys, you know, hundreds of millions
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: of dollars.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: I'll say this though, I mean they clearly it's it's
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: just tough. It's footballs and everyone knows the ball is going.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: But last week CD had thirteen catches on seventeen targets
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: for one hundred and forty six yards and two touchdowns,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: and then the week before that he had fourteen targets.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: We only had seven catches, So clearly Dak knows the deal.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Though Dak is just force feeding this guy because of
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: what we just talked about like he has no other
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: real options. So I agree with you. It hasn't worked out.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: But it's just this is life when you just have
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: two players and nothing else, right, Like, there's just only
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: so much these two guys can do, and you're right,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: they're both kind of cratering to the pressure.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I guess Miami at Buffalo Buffalo minus six. This was
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: my exact decision. Yeah, I loved it on Sunday night
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: when it was at six. It's bad up to six
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's come down to half point. That
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: worries me. You mentioned on sharp Calls there's some love
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: for Miami. Yeah, I like Josh Allen defies the trends.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: You know in the NFL historically betting against the spread,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: you want to bet on the underdog in the division.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: That's not what you do with Josh Allen. Josh Allen
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: is over five hundred. He is an ROI positive bet
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a favorite in the division. And
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: then the two A trends to me outweigh what people
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: might be believing in sort of the development of the Dolphins.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Tua is two and ten straight out, three eight and
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: one against the spread away from home, versus winning teams
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: in his NFL career career, and to me, it really
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: becomes like Finns offense versus Bill's defense. Even Tua has
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: been out, you can't really sort of vest any confidence
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: in those. But the Bill's rush offense has been top
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: three in the league across the majority of metrics, supervisial,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: advanced whatever, and defense tackling is amongst the league's worst.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: So trend wise, matchup wise, I could see the Bills.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: This is a place they tend to dominate. I'm still
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: not worried about it.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Nope. This is one of my bigger bets that week.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: Tons of money on this Bills team. I hope, I
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: hope professionals get Bett in this. But give me a
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: five and a half, that'd be great. Yeah, I'm right
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: there with you. Usually I don't love these spots, but
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen's different him and this matchup is different as well. Right,
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: we talked about two on the road. Now it's too
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: on the road against a team above five hundred, which
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: he struggles against in his career. It doesn't matter if
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: it was his best season of his career or his
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: worst season his career. He always struggles in this exact spot,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: So you know, maybe they'll get lucky Chad, but we
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: know long term this is a winning bet. So this
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: is a bet that we're gonna make this year, We'll
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: make next year as long as we can until Miami
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: changes who they are, until Josh Allen falls off the cliff,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: and he's nowhere near that cliff right now. Like this
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: is arguably the best we've ever had Josh Allen, especially
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: betting wise, Like he's just so locked in even you
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: know we knew his pick was coming last week. He
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: was so due. He's had incredible luck this season. That
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: doesn't worry me at all. He could overcome two turnovers
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: in this matchup, just because I think we're gonna get
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: opportunities with Tua. He just does not look comfortable. He's
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: still doing the one to two Mississippi in his head
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: and then getting rid of the ball because he's just
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: so terrified to take a hit right now, So I
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: love it. We got we got a Billston that's playing free.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen is really embracing the whole thing of there
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: is no superstar in this team. I can get the
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: ball to whoever I want, and end of the day,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: no one's gonna be bitching at me, and he's just
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: he looks a completely different guy, like a weight is
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: truly off his shoulders. So yeah, Bill's at home six
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: points or maybe even five and a half for our contest, Chad,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: I love this to be one of our five.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen right now odds on favorite to win in
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: the he in the NFL, that's fair. Who knows. Like
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: the way this team is playing, I'm still banking on
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff, but could end up being Josh Allen.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Chad knows, But don't get mad at Chad. Chad knows.
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: If we flipped Jared Goff and Josh Allen, we know
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: who the better quarterback is. It's just, you know, MVP,
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: Like we always say, it's it's really about that one seed.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: So I still think there is value on your golf,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: Beck because he could easily be the one seed. And
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: you know, it's as good as the Bills have been.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: You know, it is tough to get that one seed,
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: but they do have the division to do it. And
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: so that to me is the biggest, the biggest thing.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Who's gonna win this MVP is gonna be Who's gonna
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: be that one seed.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Chad Well, honestly, that's why I made the bet, Simon, Like,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: I just looked at you know, gaming it out. We
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: know it's a quarterback award, Yeah, we know. It usually
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: goes to the quarterback whose team played the best over
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the course of the season in a mostly dominant way.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: They'll lose two games at the most, maybe three, and
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: the Bills had already lost a couple of games, and
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: the Bills have to overtake the Chiefs who are undefeated.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: So to me, this just felt like, you know, if
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I'm handicapping, which is what this is, what's going to
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: be capping that over the course of the season, the
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Lions would have a better chance to win their conference,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: then have a better record with Jared Goff, and there'd
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: be sentiment like he'd have a great year, he's overcome
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: so much. There'd just be people who want to back them.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Sometimes this is about a story Los Angeles Chargers now
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half at Cleveland. You brought it
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: up on Sharp Calls. Yeah, listen, man, I'm like, I've
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: dug so deep in this one. And this this is
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: when betting gets fun, because I do feel like people
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: are not giving enough credit to the Chargers, or they
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: are giving Jamis and the Browns too much credit. They
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: are literally banking on Jamis and this offense being so
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: much better than it was with DeShawn and everyone getting
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: healthier on offense and defense. So they are reevaluating and
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: rerating the Browns. But I do look at the Chargers
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: d as a comp to the Ravens, who the Browns
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: just beat miraculously. Right, the Chargers are much better in coverage,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: much better in passing EPA, expected points allowed equal in sack, right,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: better against the run in the box with six or
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: fewer defenders. They've actually started passing the boar passing the
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: ball more the past couple of weeks, which means they
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: are putting the ball in their best players hands, justin Herbert,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: who is not a turnover machine the way Jamis is.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know that there's a real edge here. It's
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: about what we think we are seeing, and we're either
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: jumping off the wave of the Browns or we're going
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: to keep writing it with Jamis, And like, are we
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: taking a stand here that we just don't believe Jamis
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: won't throw the ball into coverage and turn the ball
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: over the way he should have against the Ravens if
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: anyone in their defensive backfield could catch the ball.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm gonna sucker. I'm gonna ride it,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: and I'm gonna do the coward move though, like I
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: probably won't pust in our contests because I'm just gonna
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: throw this in a teaser. Give me up to seven
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: and a half with this Cleveland team, because you said
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of nice things by the Chargers. I don't
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: think the Chargers are a good team. I think they've
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: just benefited from having a really easy schedule. And this
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: is what this team does, right. We talked to Harby identity,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: they just they don't beat themselves. They let these other
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: teams make the mistakes. And even watching that Saints game,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: like you know, I don't know if it was the
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: first quarter, maybe into the second quarter, it was like,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: how is the Saint team even keeping this close? They
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: hadn't they have a rotating door of rookie Qbs right
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: now at quarterback and Herbert was keeping him in it.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: And then eventually, like we talked about, Herbert realized, oh,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: I'm a top five quarterback in this league. I can
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: make these throws. I just need to trust my guy,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: and he made big time I'm throws in that game.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: So I get why you want to take the Chargers.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: They're They're probably the more complete team. But I can't
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: quit this Browns team, especially knowing how desperate they are.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: Just the whole mood and momentum is shifted in this
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: locker room now that it is Jamis. That's why I'm
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: like Chad talking about I'm taking the teaser though, just
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: because of Jamis, Like it's I I just can't get
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: it over the Coyle Hamilton drop, Like that's what we're
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: gonna get from Jamis in this game. So that's why
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I don't want to make this one of our five.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: But for the people out there, I am going to
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: make this a teaser bet with this team. You know,
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: you compare them with the Eagles, you compare it with
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: the Bengals, wherever you want to throw it in the
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: other side. But I just look at this as a
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: nice leg to a getting them up to seven a half,
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: just because we've seen this Chargers team, right, they like
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: to keep these games close, especially against teams that are
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: kind of at the same level as they are. And
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: you know, this Brown's defense at home. I know they're
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: not the same as they were last year. They're still
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: pretty damn good overall, and they could still get after
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: the quarterback. I think that that to me is where
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: I'm flipped a little bit. So, yeah, I guess we
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: disagree on this one.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Brother, dude, it's so hard, like it feels trappy to
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: bet the Chargers as the road favorite. You're going against
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: what the sharps are saying. We've seen the number come.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Down three and a half. Now it's down to one
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and so I don't know if it keeps going down,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: at some point, we might have to bet the Chargers
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. And I don't know. I don't mind
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: doing that. I just it just something here feels off
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: like Jamis is not a good bet.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: He's just not. How dare you?
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: It's it's just like people are.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Right, Evan, He's good as an underdog, not as a favorite.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Just feels like we're missing an opportunity here. We don't
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: have a Foxhall yet. We don't have a Foxhole. I'm
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: telling you right now, Washington and New York Giants, I'm
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: glad the wise guys sort of walk you off from
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: this because it was silliness, Like, I know you want
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: to back the Giants. I was again on Tuesday. I
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: think they are a dreadful team. They are a dreadful
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: team at home. They now lost Andrew Thomas, who was
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the only reason to even give any hope to this team.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Tyrone Tracy, who's been their best offensive weapon. He's probably
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: not playing because of concussion. Daniel Jones can't throw a
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: touchdown at met Life. There's severe turmoil in that locker
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: room with Daniel Jones taking the heat for going after
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: players and day Ball not defending him. It's got the
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: New York Post into goddamn tizzy, Like I don't think
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: there's any The wise guys are right here. You take
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Washington and you don't take anybody.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: I guess I'm a sucker. I'm a sucker for paint.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: I'm they can't tuck me off it. I'm dugging on
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: the Giants. But this is the game I have not
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: made a single bet on because of what Chad has
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: talked about. Like, I don't know what the injuries are
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: right now. This number is only gonna go up, like
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: it's it's three and a half in a couple of books.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing four now at a couple of books pop
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: up as well, so it's like, okay, when is it
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: I mentually up to four and a half, Like that's
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: when I'll come in on the other side. But everything
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: you said is right. This team is terrible right now.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: They're dysfunctional and they're just brutal at home. Like Daniel
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Jones at home. I don't know what it is, but
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: he is horrible playing against teams at home. And you know,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: like you said, there's just nothing to want to build
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: off of that. Like even last week at Pittsburgh game,
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: it was right there for them to get the cover
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: and everything like that, and they just don't do it.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: They've been that way this whole season. They just disappointed
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: in so many different ways.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: So Pittsburgh the Bengals, Like, yeah, it's such a shame.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: They're wasting a great year from their defense. And there
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: were pretty low expectations for their defense before the season began,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: and I feel like their defense has really been incredible,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: great defensive line, they've been really good in coverage, much
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: better than expected. It's a shame they can't figure it out.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: And like, I hate your Chargers, Bet I'd rather sweat
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: the Chargers and sweat the Giants, which I think a
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: day is what I'm getting to with our contest, which
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: is like, am I gonna be able to sleep at
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: night knowing I gave out the Giants in our contest
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: to our lovely fans. I wouldn't because I just wouldn't
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: feel terrible because they.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Are, especially when we're giving out the Saints a seven
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite on the road.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, we love Chalk this week, I'll be honest. So, yeah,
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: I'm cool with miss not taking this one in there,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: just because I'm going to force in that Packers bet,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: which is not the same obviously in any way. But
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, at least you're giving me a home
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: to ugly home divisional dog that I love and doesn't
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: need to be this one. It can. I'm easily gonna
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: be the Green Bay instead.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get to Green Bay in a second, and
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: we still owe people of foxhol and we're kind of
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: running out of room here. We'll quickly go over the
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Bears like I would steal back the Bears.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: You're a sucker though you were sucked in on that
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, but I've I've changed my tune a
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: little bit. Like you were with me. You recognize as
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: dogs of the right side, but you couldn't get yourself
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: the time.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: I said I would just stay away from it, and
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: then they flipped.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Through the dog. I'm going to get there. I'm going
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: to give you the like I'm going to give you
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the out. You don't want to bet them because the
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: fallout which I get.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: Please don't make me bet this team.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: And it has not been pretty. Braxton Jones, their left tackle,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: like Kayleb Williams, was running for his life after he
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: left the game. He is probably out. He did not
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: practice on Wednesday. Hit his backup who was so bad
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Kayleb Williams basically couldn't get a pass off. He is
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: likely out. So they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Montes Sweat did not practice on Wednesday either. I think
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: he'll play, but they're also missing multiple defensive backs. The
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Car's defense is truly terrible, but what's interesting to me
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: is the bare strength at full force is their ability
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: to rush the passer and pass coverage. The cards strength
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: offensively is Kyler in pure chaos. So the worst at
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: his for him when the defense is good and getting
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: to him the better he plays. All that makes me
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: not want to bet the Bears anymore. Also, I agree
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: with you like reading it this week, obsessing about it,
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: like there is a lot of disappointment in the Bear's
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: locker room in how eber Flus not only handled the
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Hail Mary strategically, the lack of coaching that happened in
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: the moment, and how he responded to reporters after the game,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: where I think a lot of folks felt like he
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: threw the players under the bus and said they know
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: what to do, they didn't do it like you box
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: out you mark a man. I think that was not
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: taken kindly. And the fact that they gave the ball
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: to a backup center at the goal line instead of
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: just you know, running it as they should with two
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: minutes left and fumbled it away and put them all
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: under a much different kind of strain. So to me,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: we're walking away from this game. I will not invest.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: Based off what you said too. Like I already liked
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: the under in this matchup, it makes me like it
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: even more now because you just said it. How are
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: the Bears going to move the ball offensively, and we've
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: seen them struggle this year. Caleb, especially on the road
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: this season. He's just been different his home and waste
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: butits are very, very different. So that that jumps out
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: to me. On the flip side too, I still think Eve,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: one of your guys injuries, you're a really good secondary.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: So I think Kyler, as good as he is in
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: scramble mode, they're not going to make it easy for him.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna have that many big plays.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: So yeah, if you don't want to take a side
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: in this one, I do like the under here forty
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: four and a half.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: There will not be a side in this one. We
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: haven't done Foxhall yet and I don't know I got.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: One coming up if you if you want to talk
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: about it, all.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Right, I do want to talk about it because in
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: my list, I don't know that any of these would
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: be it. We like the Rams at one and a
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: half point interesting. Yeah, wow, you are going hardcore on
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: this team because we liked him at one and a
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: half just because the.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: Professionals on another side, So I like that. I like
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: that it's we're going against the pros here in this one.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: So we liked it at one and a half on
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night. Rams is underdogs. It's flipped. We don't love
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: betting on the team that it flipped towards, So now
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the Rams are the favorite. That is a bad spot
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: historically true, like the Seahawks have played terrible against the
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: run this season, but like top ten in total yards allowed,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: top top ten in yards per carry aloud, top ten
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: in EPA against the run. Everybody, like we know Sean
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: McVay is a run first coach and Kyrin Williams has
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: been carrying the ball as a top five running back
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. The question is man the road dog
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: in this spot fifty four percent against the spread the
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: past five seasons. That's great since we've already bet the
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Rams at plus one and a half, you know, the
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: home dog fifty one percent, So not like advantageous for
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Seattle in this spot. But I don't love like that
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: we're betting against the flip and that like maybe that's
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: I should discount that. But dude, like I've learned one
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: person say they like the Rams his favorites in this game,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Like that is if we're doing that, that is legit, Foxhall.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: It is and I think it's Evan had a great
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: piece of article about it. It's McVeigh off extended Russ.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: He's actually not been that good in his career, and
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: same goes for Stafford. So I get the hesitation, right,
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: This is to me are even though we have a
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: couple of really public bets this week, this is the
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: most public bet, like the Seattle couldn't be any lower
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: right now. They are just a bad team, and that's
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: my biggest thing. Your chie, They're a bad team. They're
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: bad against good teams. And you know Gina Smith in
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: his career, he's only three and nine against the spread
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: at home in Seattle. Like he's not performed well at
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: all in Seattle. And people think it's different because my
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: whole life, I mean my whole betting life, Seattle at home,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: especially with Russell Wilson, no brainer, easy bet, especially if
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: they were an underdog. It's not been the same with
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Gino and they're just that that whole Peak Carroll identity
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: is totally gone now. So I think the people need
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: to adjust, the books need to adjust this line. If
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: it was to Chad, I probably would stay away from
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: because you know how I obsessed with that key number.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: I think the value shifted back now to this Rams team,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: and I know we both got it plus one and
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: a half. I got pennies down on that. Like my
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: real big money bets that I bet on this Rams
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: team have all come and minus one, minus one and
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: a half. So yeah, I just think the books haven't
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: adjusted to Puka and Cooper Cup being back and how
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: that's going to boost this run game in so many
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: different ways. I mean, you saw it last week, Puka
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: blocking He is so good because he's huge. I mean,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: this is a huge receiver on the outside who just
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: can bully these small corners. So I just think both
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: those guys add so much to the passing game and
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: the rushing game. But yeah, this is this is definitely
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: an island game for us, But this is us in
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the public like the professionals are on the other side.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: So to me, this is why I like making this
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: one of their Foxholt bets, because it really is us
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: jumping in against these pros here.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: You know what, I'm glad to hear you say this
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: because I haven't seen anything to make me not like
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: the Rams other than the trends. I actually really like
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: their young defense. I love the Rams as an organization.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: I think they draft well. I think mcveigh's a great coach.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: I think less Sneed has done an incredible job bringing
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: talent and getting rid of guys at peak, you know,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: like the old Cowboys used to do. And I'm not
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: afraid of it. We're in the foxhol We're on the Rams.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: We are against everybody on this We are truly in
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: a foxhill on this one. This is a huge, huge
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: wise excuse me, it's a choking me up, a huge,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: huge wise guy play. All Right, we're in the foxhil
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: La Rams minus one and a half. I don't want
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: this to make us beholden to put them in the contest.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: That makes me a little nervous. But we're in the foxhall.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the fox hole.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Okay. And now I have other favorites I like more.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: I just I really love this RAMS team, and this,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: to me is such a good spot. We're still I
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: feel like getting good value on them, just because the
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: books haven't adjusted to what they are now, which is
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: a healthier team.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: Detroit at green Bay, green Bay three and a half.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: This was Simon says. I will say this is the
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: game I've bet the most done this week. I've enjoyed
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: getting the money down at three and a half. It's
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: been getting closer and closer to three. Nothing I've seen
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: changes me my mind from putting use in the contest
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: total pro Joe split. The packerds pass blocking is elite
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: this season. So how will the Lions get any pressure?
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: I think that's still a real hole for them without
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Aden Hutchinson. Whether it could be a factor. Wind is
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: in the ten to fifteen mile per hour range.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Jared Goff has a bad.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: Ankle, potentially rain. We're gonna get to golf. Matt Lafleur
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: twenty four and eleven as a dog sixty nine percent
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: in his career. We're selling peak Lions. I don't mind
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: getting off the Lions. They've been so good to us.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Like Jared Goff outside in weather, he's generationally great inside
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: outside not so much. And so this is the time
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: that you gotta go all in on the Packers here.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and just the you can say what you want,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: right with Jordan Love being banged up, but we I
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: just talked about it. Golf is banked up as well.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: He didn't practice yesterday. He's got a bad ankle and
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: you know, this is the type of matchup where, yes,
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: is it scary betting against this Detroit team for me
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: and Chad, of course, we've just seen them just dominate
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: everyone they've faced. But we talk all the time divisional
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: games are different and that's when you really have to
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: just trust the number. And you know, they remember what
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: was it two three weeks ago they tried scaring off.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: We thought the Detroit number was way too easy against
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: that Vikings team. What was it two and a half
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: down to one and a half? Yeah, line didn't make sense.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: All of a sudden, it came down to you know,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: Minnesota had the ball, they were about to go up
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: three with an extra going for two, and at one
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: point it was landed right on one and it was like, okay,
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: either we're gonna get lucky with the cover here or
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: we're gonna get this outright win by this Lion's team.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: And it feels the same way here with green Bay
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: where we're getting a great number with the hook on
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: the three and a half, and we both believe green
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Bay can easily win this game. Like they are a
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: good team, they're so well coached. You know, this field's
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: gonna be extra wet, They're gonna water this field right
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: before tip off. And I just love this Green Bay
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: team with this matchup. It was just like last week,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: like I played the number against Green Bay because I
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: thought they were going to look ahead spot that they
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: were gonna kind of play down to their competition. This
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: is they know this is basically for their season. Same
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: thing as we were back to Colts last week against Houston.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: Like you get these divisional teams and these kind of
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: matchups where you put the human element to it of
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: these guys know like they know they need this for
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: the division. There is an extra oomph to that, the
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: extra effort, extra motivation, these type of spots. So you
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: know I'd grab like I said on Tuesday, I grab
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: it now people. I do think once everything is clear
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: with Jordan Love, this does go down to three and
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: it stays there. Yeah, kickoff. It just feels like the
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: professional side where the public is going to come in
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: so heavy on Thetroit Detroit team, where they don't realize
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: this is this is where you want to hop off
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: for this week. So I don't say this, I'm not
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: saying this is a scheduled loss, but there are kind
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: of games like that, right. We always talk about teams
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: aren't going to just lose one or two games in
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: the entire season. That's those are really rare outliers. Those
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: teams are you know, either being extremely lucky or like
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: the you know, nineteen to oh Patriot team, that's just
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: the most dominant team we've ever seen put it together.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: So respect to Detroit, we think they're a great team,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: but this is such a spot for this Green Bay team.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of the games when I bet
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: you're go off to be MVP. I expected him to lose, right,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: you know, like he's banged up, it's outside. It's just
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: sort of he won't play another game outside the rest
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: of the year unless you count the Cowboys.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: You know, when he's going to soldier field.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Oh, he's got to go to a soldier field other
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: than that, like outside against the Cowboys. If the if
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the roof is open, but doesn't really count. All right,
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: last game to discuss indy five and a half at Minnesota. Yeah,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is starting now.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Joe.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: It's been really interesting, like since this was announced forty
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: eight hours ago, the analysis about Anthony Richardson across the punditry,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: social media, you know, column inches spilled on internet machines.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: It's been fascinating, like so many people sort of decrying
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: the idea that completion percentage is how you should be
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: judging Anthony Richardson and then looking deeper and looking at
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: the choices he makes when he doesn't complete a pass
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: and the leverage position that he is putting his team
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: in positively and the net ROI if he completes a
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: downfield pass, and really great and interesting analysis that makes
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: completion percentage not a great way to measure his development
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: because it's terrible like the past twenty five years. I
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: think Akille Smith as the only guy with a worse
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: completion percentage. But Joe Flacco, despite like the brilliance we
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: think he brings, and you know he's not exactly is
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: he likes to say elite? No, So are the Colts
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: better off short and long term? As an unabashed Richardson backer,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: where do you stand on this?
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: I hate it? Like this is why I always say
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: these teams you can just be so screwed if you
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: have the wrong owner. And this to me is an
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: owner move, and we talk all the time in life,
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: you never want to make a decision out of anger.
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: And this was to me a decision made out of anger,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: because if it was logic, the logical move would have
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: been do this a week ago against Houston, like that
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: would have made more sense. Okay, the coaches make this
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: change here because they want to see they can beat
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: Houston here and steal this division. They didn't. And you
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: know when they interviewed Change Styke and it seemed like
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: even he was kind of alluding to, Yeah, this ain't me.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: This is the owner making this decision here. So I
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: feel bad for Colts fans, like Joe Flacco is not
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: they know this. He's not getting in the Promised Land.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Is he really gonna beat Mahomes in the playoffs. He's
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: really gonna beat Lamar or Josh Allen in the playoffs? No,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: he lost to cg as a rookie last year in Houston.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: So I don't get it, Like to me, you need
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: you just needed Anthony Richard and get the reps, like
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: you know, in a sick world, Daniel Daniel Jones over
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: here gets seventy one starts in the NFL. This kid
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: only gets nine or ten. And it's just I hate
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: that kind of stuff like this kid has so much potential.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: We all knew it was gonna be rough, right, We
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: knew coming out of college this kid was just raw
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: talent and he had a great deep ball, but he
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: couldn't complete a ten yard pass. It's continued, and I
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: get why they're pissed off about, especially ownership, but it's
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: like that's how you have him take the reps, Like
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: he needs these reps to kind of figure that stuff
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: out and then work on that stuff in the off season.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: So bizarre move, but for our job's sake. Like I
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: wanted to be on the Vikings because I thought Flores
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: would have a huge mismatch against Anthony Richardson. That's out
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: the window now Flaco Flacca donet seen at all. So yeah,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: the value to me shifts to this Colts team, and
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: the number to me hasn't moved enough. It's gone down
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: from six to five. Now, yeah, I got this number four,
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: So right now I have a point of value on
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: the Colts. So I would take this on the Colts,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: but I don't know what to do with it. Like
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: I can't imagine what the vibes are like in the
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: locker room after this type of move, where even the
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks said, you know, he didn't really have much to
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: say about it from this coach, and you know, Pittman
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: the wire you were saying he found out via social media. Like,
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: it just seems very dysfunctional with this Colts team. So
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: I'm happy to avoid this one, especially for our contest.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: But man, just a strange move for this Colts team.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: I don't get what the end goal is. It's to
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: get a wild card and that's that. Like, No, you
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: want to be setting yourself up for five ten years
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: down the road, not this deposite situation.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: So yeah, just sad.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: I feel bad for the Colts.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: I do too, And I love Shane Steike and you know,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: I think he's great. Yeah, I think he would have
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: done wonder to continue to develop Anthony Richardson. Maybe that happens.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: I don't understand the move. I agree with you, like
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: I actually didn't rush to bet the Colts when the
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: move was announced, even though the number ticked down from
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: six to five and a half immediately. I do think
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: that's where the value is. But I still think there's
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: something intangible that can't be addressed here that makes me
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: nervous about betting the Colts, especially against a Vikings team
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: that knows it needs it. Can't lose three in a row.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: It needs a big game, So I agree with you,
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: but the Colts live.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: Then we talked about the script. Vikings has been incredible
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: this season. If they're up ten to nothing, go bet
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: the Colts live.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Right the car because you get the Vikings in the
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: second half. They're a different team, different team, you get
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold, unscripted, different conversation.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: YEP.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Boosted underdog money line parlay time. Each week we give
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: out a two team money line underdog parlay. Bet three
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: sixty five boost the odds and highlights it on their
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: site all weekend under both team game pages. And remember
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early
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  Speaker 1: payout promo, where your money line pick it's marked as
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: a win if they take a seventeen point lead, even
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: if they lose. If you want to bet this bettered
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  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay is
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: the New England Patriots and no surprise, Green Bay Packers.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: Find the boost under either Patriots or Packers game pages.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: I'm dead three six five signing our money line underdog
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: round Robin. There will come up, Hey, day. Hallelu yo
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: wata pay day.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: There will come.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Up pay day some day.
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: Some day there will come up heayday.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Halla lou yo waa. Pay day will come up pay
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: day some day. I think we'll have the Pats in there, correct,
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: I think we'll have the Packers in there.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Yep. And I'm tempted by it. I know you say
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: you can't see the Vikings losing three in a row,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: but crazy things have happened, right, And you're getting plus
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: twenty eighty five right now in the Colts. I feel
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: like that's pretty good value.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: I don't mind that. I don't mind the Colts, the Packers,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: the Pats. I think we had in there, the Browns.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: Browns are plus one hundreds, so yeah, I think we
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: can get them in there.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: I don't mind that Browns, and then we need one more.
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, I hate them. I know I just should
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: on them, and I'm in Atlanta, but only have to
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: do the Cowboys like that's a coin flip game. Those
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: are the type of underdogs we take.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, it was actually Cowboys or Seattle. That's fair,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: But I I don't want to jinks are No, don't
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: do it. I don't want to bring a grenade into
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: our own foxhole and do it to me, you know,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: so Underdog, money Line, Round, Robin Parlay, Colts, Packers, Pat's, Browns, Cowboys.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: Give me your biggest bets right now.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: Definitely Green Bay, Rams, you know, Bills, those three off
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: the top, and then secondary I'll probably go Saints, Patriots,
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: and then I know it's sickening, but I'm gona end
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: up on the Giants pretty heavy. So for my three
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: biggest ones, definitely Packers, Rams, and the Bills. I know
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: a little chalky this week, people, but that's just how
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: it is.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: I really can't believe you're going to be that aggressive
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: on the Giant.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: I know, I'm sick. Oh, it's just at will point,
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: this number moved too much. That's the issue. This number
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: here's I think it should be three. It's all up
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: to four and out, Chad. This is this is the
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: life of a sad man.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: Give me your scoot Roulette.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: Let's play scoot Rolette. Scout Roulette six and two in
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: the season, people, we stay hot. I want to steal
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: Chad's pick a Green Bay so bad because I know
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: that's probably what he wants to do. But I'm gonna
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: give my guy a lay up. I'll let him take
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: Green Bay. I'll take the Buffalo bills minus six.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are a gift because I actually
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: wanted to choose. I was gonna do Green Bay or Buffalo,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: and I know I knew you were going to do
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: one or the other. Yeah, so I was ready for both.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: I would have taken both.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: But you know what, green Bay is a great one.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: You're You're a gift you give every day to me.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: All right, sign to bring in our director of research,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: e any It's good.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: Smarter final word.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Let's get a little bit smarter of it. Make us
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: feel good. Also give us those Harbaugh Lamar Jackson first
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: half stats. The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: We're finished talking as the tony reality of this show.
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: Let me clean up two things and then let me
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: go into exactly what we're talking about here. You guys
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: are talking about Richardson. So I just quickly looked this up.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: So Richardson has twenty three starts combined college and pros.
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: Strout already has twenty five in the pros. So if
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: you want to make a comparison there, Richardson just needs
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: more time. But also he threw twenty four touchdown passes
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: in his college career. That was the fewest by any
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: first round quarterbacks in two thousand and one. His completion
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: percentage of fifty four percent was the lowest by a
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: first round quarterback since Jake Locker in twenty eleven. Let's
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: all just not assume this wasn't a shock. We kind
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: of knew this walking in, so it is what it is.
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: Let's move on there. Baltimore first half to answer your question,
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: So that is first half is up to six for Baltimore.
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: Now two hundred and sixty two quarterbacks last twenty years.
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: Number one and first have ATS is Lamar number two Flaco,
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: So Harbaugh, that's doing great. That he's fifty nine percent
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: first half of ATS, best of many head coach. So
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: that's that's the stuff out of the way. Let me
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: talk about a few picks she does like here. So
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: let's start with Buffalo. So when I'm doing a little
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: bit of research, I wanted to try and pinpoint where
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen might have the opportunity to blow out his opponents.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: Since we talk about that stat of his wins and
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: winning by a large margin. So who knows what we're
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: going to actually be getting out of the Dolphins offense
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: because we've talked about this two and not two of
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: the numbers are just kind of jumbled. What we do
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: know is more predictable is their defense. So they're allowing
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty three yards per game on the ground,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: which is middle of the pack in the NFL. But
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: when Josh Allen faces, defense is allowing one hundred and
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: twenty plus. Where Allen is favored, he is twenty eight
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: and three straight up, winning by fourteen point eight points
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: per game. He is eighteen eleven and two against the spread,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: covering by seven points per game.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: So seems like, you know what, I feel so good
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: about that because what is the stat that I pinpointed?
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: I pinpointed the Dolphins rush defense? And like, I feel
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: great now, I feel fucking great.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: Well check for ev and number one. All right, number
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: two packers, how can we not talk about this? I'm
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: just gonna give one clear system play that I think
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: you almost just need to follow here. So teams covering
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: eighty percent of their games, which is the Lions, who
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: are a road favorite fifty three eighty nine and three
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: thirty seven percent against the spread since twenty ten, and
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: that moves to thirty two percent ats and division games.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: Just it's a clear play on Green Bay, one play
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: one way or the other. And then the thing that's
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: kind of going around everywhere. Lafleur's great as a dog,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: but when he's getting three points or more, he is
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: eighteen and four against the spread, No way, twenty and
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: two when that throws into a six point teaser, So
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: it's the right number, go that direction. And then I'll
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: end with one more, which is Tampa. So the odd
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: thing with Tampa, kind of like with Miami, is the
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: numbers don't matter as much anymore without God winning Evans.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: So if you like Tampa, there's really three options. A
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: their defense shows up and keeps it close. B Baker
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: balls out without Evans, and God when probably not the option,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: or see Baker finds the back door. So what I
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: looked up with Mahomes, he is twenty eight thirty one
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: and three against the spread as a six point favor
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: when his opponent is averaging two hundred and fifty plus
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: passing yards. When he's a six point favorite, he's just
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: three eight and one against the spread. Now, in those
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: three covers, he's won by thirty, nine, eighteen, and thirty five.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: So could he blow out Tampa and cover the game? Sure,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: maybe an option you might want to look at. You
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: like Tampa to cover cool, But if you take kse
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: to win by twenty or thirty to win by thirty
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: is eleven to one. So maybe there's a few ways
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: to play a little in both sides. But the numbers
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: say take Tampa, especially if Baker can find his group
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: of as receivers.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: All spread on the Kansas City Chiefs. That is nice, Evan,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: That is tasty well done. See Simon, Don't we feel
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: better right now? As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is
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• 1:03:49
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