Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bitcoin Rally Year-End Macro Outlook📈 w/ Darius Dale

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Bitcoin Rally Year-End Macro Outlook📈 w/ Darius Dale · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Heymous Paulbera. Welcome back in a tech path. Before we
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: get started, I want to thank our sponsor and that
• 0:10
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• 0:11
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  Speaker 1: so start there see if it makes sense for your
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: own tax position going forward. Joining me today, of course,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: is mister Darius Dale, who comes in from forty two Macro.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: How are you, Darius?
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Oh, it's great to see it man.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: How you doing good?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I can't complain. It's been a while since we've had
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: you on, so I wanted to get you in before
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: year end, before the holidays and kind of get your
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: opinion on some of the movements in the market in general.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: One of the things we've been watching, of course is
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: what I didn't even realize is a seven five year
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: high in US stocks versus the rest of the world.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: So if you look at just a.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Performance, I've had a chance to live through that Internet bubble,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: which is insane, and here we are now absolutely killing it.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: You know, when you look at just the market in general,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: if you look at the current heated s and P
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: five hundred, we're going to have Nvidia earnings in after
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: close I think on Wednesday this week. First of all,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: do you think that this market can continue to hold
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: this position right now? Are you looking for possibly a retrace?
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, look, we're not in the business of calling
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: every wig going the stock market, and quite frankly, I
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: don't think anybody should be in that business because it's
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: not a lucrative business over a long period of time.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: But when you think about where markets could be over
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: a multi month time horizon, yeah, we still do believe
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: that there is upside. You know, we have sort of three,
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: we four core fundamental themes that are inactive right now,
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: and three of them are bulsh you know, resilious economy thing,
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: which you and I've talked about on this program.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: We've had that theme since September of twenty twenty two.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: No change, which that are.
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: Here comes the liquidity theme, which is we authored a
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: few months ago, partially as a function of the theme
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: we authored a year ago, which is our asymmetrically dubbish
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: FED view. When you put those three things together, we're
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: talking about moral liquidity, upside surprises, and growth, and ultimately
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: a FED that is sort of effectively playing ball, if
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: you will, and allowing the US government to capitalize itself
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: in I guess a low indigestion condition at a low
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: indigestin state. Those things all point to to reasonably higher
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: upside in risk assets over the medium term. Once you
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: get beyond the second quarter, however, Paul, I think we
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: can probably start to start to enventition some significant downside
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: in prices from there.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: All right, So with that being the case, you've got
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Warren Buffett bushire Hathaway, who's been pretty much hoarding cash.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: He of course has come in recently in the position
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: of reducing a lot of major positions and positions including
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Apple Bank of America, which we've talked about here over
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the last little bit. But for the first time we're
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: starting to see him move back into a handful of
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: stocks as well. This much hash on the sideline, along
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: with the comparison to a lot of investors who maybe
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: have been sitting in cash for quite some time, layers
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: in what the economy is currently stated in with if
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you look at that, Darius, and then you look at
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: this data right here, and that is skyrocketing delinquencies on
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: consumer credit.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: So between those two things.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: A lot of cash on the sidelines, we've got some
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: credit pressure for retail consumers. What does that mean in
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: terms of market volatility? Are we seeing a position where
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: maybe retail is not going to be in this play
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: or what are your thoughts?
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: My original thoughts are that these are respectfully two lagging indicators.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: So both the credit cycle and the quote unquote cash
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: on the sideline, what we've observed in our analysis empirically
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: is that both of those have typically moved after broader
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: asset markets and the broader economy. And so if you
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: want to think about what things that lead the market
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: is seeing, like changes in policy, changes in liquidity, changes
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: in growth, and changes in corporate profits, those are the
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: four cycles that we've identified that have consistently, you know,
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: led big swings in asset markets. Obviously, you don't necessarily
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: get the data in real time. But if you have
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: an informed view on those cycles, you can sort of
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: credibly anticipate markets over a long period of time. And
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: so when you think about, you know, the kinds of
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: things that could cost, could you know the real consternation
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: asset markets from the percentctive of the credit cycle. You know,
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: if you don't have a recession on the rise, and
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: you're probably not gonna have a big enough credit cycle
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: to CAUSEFIC problems in asset markets.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: So we're not concerned about that.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: And one final thing I'll say is that you know,
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: going back and citing our analysis, you typically don't see
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: a significant draw down in money market fund balances until
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: two things.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: Two of two things have occurred.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: One a crash in the stock market and to the
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: lowers the policy rates significantly. And that's been that's that's
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: that's just what the empirical evidence to observe. So we
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: as investors should not take comfort in the fact that
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: there's a bunch of cash on the sidelines. We should
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: take comfort in the fact that you know, the site
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: that are contributing to the upside surprises in asset markets
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: and valuations that we've called for accurately this year are
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: largely still intact.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so good for the market in general.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: You look at the FED, many people are maybe can
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: reconsidering the Fed's pivot and saying this might be a
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: little bit of a pause here. This came in from
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Kobeezy last week. Chairpal said they're not necessarily in a
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: hurry to cut rates. I'll kind of zoom in on
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: that for you. I expect more volatility and rate futures
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: ahead as well, and of course the probability market is
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: also starting to split up a little bit in terms
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: of a rate cut for December. What does your opinion
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: think in terms of ray cut in December or do
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: you think we'll pause?
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great question, and I'll answer it sort
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: of the I'll do my media training and answer the
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: question I want to answer, which is is the what
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: will cause more problems in the bomb markets? Well, is
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: A going to cause more problems in the bomb market
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: or is holding PET? I would argue from this starting point,
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: holding PAT might actually be more bond stimulative because it
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: ultimately signals to investors that this is a federal reserve
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: that has a little bit more credibility on the inflation
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: fighting front. I think if they were powerfull steam ahead
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: with rate cuts, obviously not learning the lesson from what
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: we just observed the last two months in terms of
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: the blood apth and the bomb market was observed, I
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: think they probably would opt for a slightly less expeditious
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: manner and reducing the policy rate. But again, this is
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: a federal Reserve that if you look at their dot plots,
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: they still believe that neutral on the policy rate is
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: somewhere all the way down near three percent. Now that
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: number is probably higher since the September dot plot the
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: advent of that. However, it's not going to go from
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: three percent to four percent overnight. It's probably not three quarter.
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: And so this is a federal reserve that still thinks
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: it has a restricted policy, which we obviously very much
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: disagree with. Pick a statistic, it'll tell you that that's
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: not restrictive, but they believe they are restrictive. And so
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: it's really just about managing a massagery market expectations on
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: a path towards a quote unquote more neutral policy setting.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: And right now we think skipping in December probably might
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: make that job a little bit easier for them rather
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: than harder.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of in that camp is that a
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: pause might happen in December. Here's a clip from the
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: former FED talking about how this may play out. You know,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: this is a guy who's lived it before to a
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: certain extent, but take a look.
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: So I think paul view is that inflation is going
• 7:23
  Speaker 5: to continue to come down, but it's going to take
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: a little while to be fully realized. He talked about
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: the fact that shelter costs are still going up pretty rapidly,
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: but that's a lagged response to the fact that takes
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: time for rent prices to reprice lower. And he's also
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: concerned that the labor market is not that strong. So
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: his view is that the policy is still restrictive, the
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: labor market's still vulnerable to weakness, and so heading in
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: the direction of neutral is still the right course. I
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: think the data, though, is obviously causing problems for them
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: because economy has been persistently stronger than expected and inflation's
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: stickier than expected.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: So the big.
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: Debate in the market now is it does a sad
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: cut in December. The market basically says yes, but not definitively,
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: and then the view is that maybe the Fed will
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: take a pause after that to wait for more information.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So as you can see a lot of people looking
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: both ways, you know that there could still be being
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: The one statement he had was the FED believes they're
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: not restrictive, kind of counterpart to what you're talking about.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: If you look at that, and then you take this
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: clip into consideration from Tom Lee, because he's looking at
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: what the market is going. Let me go to his clip,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: and then I want to get your opinion on those two.
• 8:37
  Speaker 6: Sure, and the Trump trade has already been going for
• 8:39
  Speaker 6: a while. You think it's just getting started at this point.
• 8:42
  Speaker 6: There's a lot probably for the markets to like, I
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: guess in terms of I mean, he likes easy money,
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: he likes slow regulation, he likes lower taxes. I mean,
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: there's a lot more than a two week rally.
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: Maybe in your.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: View, that's right.
• 8:57
  Speaker 7: I think most of the major industries have pulled back
• 8:59
  Speaker 7: to what would be technically viewed by our technician Market
• 9:02
  Speaker 7: Newton as support. So the Nasdaq is on the support line,
• 9:06
  Speaker 7: SMP did a sixty percent retrace of its recent rally,
• 9:09
  Speaker 7: and small caps have held above their prior highs. These
• 9:12
  Speaker 7: are all bullish support levels, all.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Right, So let me kind of frame this this way
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: for you, and because this is confusing to me, I
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: look at all, right, Well, the Fed's got a sticky inflation,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: he's got a position right now where the bond market's
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: putting some pressure on it, the labor market is putting
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: some pressure on it. But yet at the same time
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: you have this upside happening in the S ANDP crypto
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: markets are.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: Absolutely on lit up.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: That is counterbalance to what really we should be going
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: into if this is not a I won't call it
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: a supercycle, but definitely an extended cycle into the markets
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: right now. So would that be in alignment with what
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: you're thinking, is that even though you're hoping for a pause,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: that it probably is not going to happen in December.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going to continue to see more performance from the market.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: Oh yeah, And our view, we do think that the
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: markets have a lot more scope to our upside to
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: price and upside over the medium term. Now, again, one
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: of the this is our view on that has is
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: a function of everything we're discussing right now. Its back
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: to the fas asymmetrically devast reaction functions, specifically the fact
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: that they are not as concerned about inflation as they
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: are the labor market.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: That's asymmetric.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: The fact that they are trying to get the policy
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: rate to a more neutral setting and ignoring a lot
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: of economic and financial market data. That's just they are
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: very much unrestricted at the current juncture is asymmetric, and
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: ultimately this asymmetrically devast reaction function, does you know, lend
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: you know, it's supportive.
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: For asset price appreciation.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, at the least of which is, you know, if
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: we can survive between now and your impul in a
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: relatively reasonably bullish format, I don't see how you don't
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: have significantly higher asset prices between let's call it now
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: and early.
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: To mid April.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: So'll we're going to hit the tee the dead CELA
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: moratorium on January first, on January second will be without
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: borrowing authority and the impasse which we've observed of the
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: last two you know, kind of debt selling struggles has
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: historically lasted anywhere between three to four months. And you're
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: talking about eight hundred and sixteen billion dollars in the
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: TJA right now, that'll be close to zero by the
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: end of that time period. That's dollar bearish, that's bullish
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: for risk assets from the US liquidity perspective, obviously bullish
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: from a global liquidity perspective as well. So if we
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: can avoid a significant retracement and poolback in asset markets
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: over the kind of very medium term, which we would argue,
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: you know, you certainly should avoid that from a fundamental standpoint,
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: then yeah, I mean we were talking about what was
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: XB five hundred and six thousand, sixty five by mid April.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, Okay, Well, that kind of is in alignment with
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: some of the key investors out there. You've got Paul
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Tutor Jones coming in that he's increased his position on
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: risk assets, holding now five acts of bitcoin. He's up
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to about one hundred and sixteen million through black Rocks
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: etf You look at that, and then you look at
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: the plays that are happening within the SEC. Obviously Gensler
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: most likely going to be resigning. We'll see a new
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: potential coming in on the SEC that most likely will
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: again be positive for risk assets in general going forward.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: And then of course micro strategy comes in as well
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: as more nation states. So the Polish president now saying hey, yeah,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: we're all in on bitcoin. So you've got countries coming in,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: You've got potentially a strategic reserve being thrown out there
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: by Trump's administration. You've got you know, billionaires playing into
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the game. I mean, this just doesn't seem.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Like it could lose.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: But that's when I get a little bit concerned, is
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: when there's too much bullish action in the market, any
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: contrarian position at all that concerns you right now going
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: into the end of the year.
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll tell you right now, if you look at
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: our position model, we track about thirteen time series from
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: the spepe of how they've historically performed at major bow
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: market peaks and major bow market troughs. And you know
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: right now, the preponderance of those time series are just
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: so that you know, we have reasonable risk of both
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: a correction in the shorter medium term, but also reasonable
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: rest of a crash over the medium to long term.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: So I am concerned that we are probably.
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: An inning eight, somewhere between inning eight and eighty nine
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: of this this ragingable market that we've been on the
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: right side of for the better part of the last
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: two years.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: So you know, if you're if you're waking up in
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: November six.
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: And saying, well, everything's fine, this blue sky's ahead, we
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: would just point everyone back to the you know, the
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: previous couple years where everything already was fine, and now
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: all you're doing now is taking the last i don't know,
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: ten to twenty thirty percent of investors that were in
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: the heart landing camp and you're spanking them and forcing
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: them into the markets. Eventually that spanking and forcing them
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: in the markets will cease, and hopefully it ceases. It'll
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: probably just you know, my mental model on this is
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: that it will probably cease by the time you get well
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: into the first half of next year, after the TGA
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: spin down, after it becomes pretty clear what the first
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: one hundred days of the Trump administration looked like from
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: a policy sequencing perspective, and ultimately, I just think you're
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: going to run out of good news, you know, just's
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: going to run out of good news at that from
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: that point.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Forward, which it's interesting.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So my last question to you, Darius, is you look
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: at the cabinet appointments that have been going on with
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration. What cabinet administra or appointment or key
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: position I should say in the administration would have the
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: most positive effect on the markets going forward. This could
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: be anything from sec chair, not that that's an appointment,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: but you could look at, you know, the Treasury, You
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: could look at scenarios playing into some of the market controls,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: a lot of the bureaucrats that you know, populate most
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: of our finance, including the CFTC, anything that you would say,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I'm watching this particular position right now.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, one hundred percent.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: I mean right now you're talking about to me, it's
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: clearly the Treasury, obviously the Secretary of the Church is
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: going to be have the most influence on asset markets,
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: particularly in this four turning regime where you know, we're
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: already forecasting public sector debt growth here in this fore
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: turning to vastly exceed current you know, sort of on
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: brand projections for the various agencies, including the government itself,
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: and so how the government chooses to capitalize itself in
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: that framework, in our opinion, is going to be one
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: of the key issues of our time. One thing that
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: could be potentially very bare for the market that I
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: don't think investors are paying attention to is some of
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: the policy proposals bandied about by Treasury Secretary nominee I
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: would say's nominee, but he's certainly on the short list.
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: Scott Besson, someone who I know well for server of
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: my days I'm traveling the global byside, and the reality
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: is Scott is sort of a hard money guy who's
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: been very critical of Yallen's decision to finance the government
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: at the short end of the treasure curve in terms
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: of flooding the market T bills, which has been incredibly
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: supportive dynamic for asset markets over the past couple of years.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: Rolling that back at the margin will be really significantly
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: negative from the perspect of of, you know, the amount
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: of balance sheet space that the private sector is going
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: to have to create to capitalize the US government in
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: subsequent quarters in years, and so that's something I'm very
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: concerned about. So I think investors, as much as we
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: want to celebrate a market quote unquote markets guy potentially
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: taking that seat, you have to pay attention to what
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: he's actually saying about policy and how that's going to
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: change from what it's currently. The current are already very
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: favorable policy mixt right now. We could have had a
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: better fiscal policy dynamic for the better part of the
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: past two years, and it's the best I've ever seen
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: the government budget deficit was growing at a very rapid
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: pace to support the economic resiliency, but it was also
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: being capitalized in a way that didn't cause a lot
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: of fiction and indigestion and asset markets.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: If you reverse both of those things, I.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: Mean, you could have a significant problement in the economy
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: ascid markets as a function of that. So I got what,
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: you gotta watch that closely as an investment.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So Bessin and Lutnik both are kind of in
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: talk talks, or at least in the discussion right now.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Lutnik very pro on bitcoin.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Bess And I would say is a little bit more
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: on as you mentioned, hard money, and I think that
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: will be a polar opposite possibly coming out of the treasury,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: which will be interesting to see as Trump.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Gets to going in on that.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to check out more of Darius,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: you got to go over to his Twitter account Darius
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Dale forty two. You can check him out there on
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: AX great great tweets. I always love following your tweets
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: out there. So first of all, thanks again for coming
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: in today. We appreciate it, Darius.
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: I'm always a pleasure man.
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: You asked some of the better questions I get on
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: these podcast circuits. Man, you're very forward looking by and
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: then I appreciate it. I know your audience appreciates as well.
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: So yes, thank you so much.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: We appreciate it, all right, you guys, if you're not
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: tuned in on the YouTube right now, well you should
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: be coming over here, because if you're listening to us
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: on the audio side of this, whether it's over on
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Spotify or Apple, the best place is coming over to YouTube.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Just search Paul Baron nowhere you'll find us there. Feel
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: free to jump into the Diamond circle. That's our own
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: personal email that we send out. We do additional content,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: more podcasts, et cetera, and of course follow me out
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: there on x APT Paul Baron, We'll catch you next
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: time right here on tech Path