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[FOR INTERNAL REVIEW] Ernie Tedeschi - What the Productivity Numbers Say About AI
Productivity growth in the US has jumped by about a percentage point since 2023. That's a big deal. Whether AI is the cause, or just the context, is a much harder question to answer than most commentary assumes.
Topics covered:
Why labor productivity and total factor productivity are telling completely different stories right now
Why quality-adjusting a data center over months is nearly as hard as comparing a 1790 warship to an Aegis cruiser
How AI displacement tends to happen: not gradually, but in sudden drops during recessions when firms rebuild with newer technology
The travel agent case…
The skinny
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