Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Macro Headwinds vs Crypto Market📉

Transcript

Macro Headwinds vs Crypto Market📉 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Crypto versus macro headwinds. Today, we'll break it down for you.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: There's a lot that is brewing and this may start
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: to line up for where this market could go. You've
• 0:08
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• 0:35
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• 0:39
  Speaker 1: let's just jump right into it. I want to lead
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: off with this right here. And it's kind of an
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: interesting tweet President Trump posting an image claiming that the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: straight of horror moves is now the new US territory.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: And of course we're looking at eighty five dollars a
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: barrel oil price as all of this is going. And
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: I think this again gets back into the rhetoric that
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: comes out of the White House with what's going on
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: in Iran here it is right here. President Trump says
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: there are no talks or conversations going on or even
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: scheduled with Iran. So this is the issue right now
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: we're dealing with not only from a point that where
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: we have an issue coming in on energy prices, but
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: also just how long is this thing going to last
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: in the sense of a war or if the US
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: is even in it now. I want to go to
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: a clip real quick, because this is Kevin McCarthy kind
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: of looking at how this may affect midterms. Take a look.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: You have an unpopular war that has extended more than
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: six months at this point, you have gasoline prices that
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: have been higher, and consumers that are tired of inflation.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Where do you think we are in terms of a
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: potential solution.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: I think Iran has always going to wait till after
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: the election. Thanks it gives them some advantage. People are
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: not focused just yet. In the next four weeks. It'll
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: really show out you win elections by getting your base
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: and the swing vote. Right now, the Democrats are winning
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: because their base is excited about voting and the Republicans
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: are not. Can advantage money and redistricting for the House
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: even though Republicans said about two nineteen they got ten
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: more seats before the election happens, they don't have to
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: win three of these eighteen.
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: How much of this is a referendum though, on the
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: White House versus something else.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: Well off years are always bad for the party in power.
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: That's given only two times in ninety years did the
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: party in power gain seats, So you're going against the trend.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: But you've got to remember redistrictings are different and Republicans
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: have a money advantage. I think it's more about the economy.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: That's the number one issues, the economy, and if you
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: talk about anything else, you're losing.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: That I agree with. I think the economy is going
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: to be the asu come midterm. And when you look
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: at the situation right now in the Senate, Republicans now
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: have narrowed the gap here to fifty one percent as
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: a chance to keep the Senate, but there are some
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: solid blue potentials now coming in and it still is
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: up for grabs. So this is very early. Yes, we're
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: still just a few months away. But at the House,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: of course looks to be lost. This is an eighty
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: eight percent chance that the Democrats take the House, so
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: it really boils down to how will this look and
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: what will this play into if the Senate and the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: House are both lost to the Democratic Party. And I
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  Speaker 1: think that will be the point that everybody is pushing
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: for based on one or two things, and the biggest
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: one is going to be energy price. You look at
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: oil's reaction to the US Iranian war, even though it's
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: getting smaller. Brent crude now just up two bucks since
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: the MU expired, And I think this point may be
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: a bad thing if you look at one the market
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  Speaker 1: insensitivity to this, but also what does this look like
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  Speaker 1: if we start to see an extension or better yet,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: what happens if we start to see an escalation in
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: terms of true price increases on crude oil. And of course,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: if you look at it right here, this was its bottom,
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  Speaker 1: only not the bottom of where the market was, but
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: at least on the potential of an ending of war.
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  Speaker 1: So it's got the potential to go down at sixty
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  Speaker 1: eight bucks a barrel. Then the explosion, because of the
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: erratic nature that we've had on negotiations, came back down
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  Speaker 1: when there was a possible hope, and then here we
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  Speaker 1: are back at eighty five right now, And I think
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: this is the factor. Do we head back to one
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars barrel in the near months, and especially of
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: timing lands around midterms, that is going to be a narrative.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I think that would be huge for the Democrats. Now
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: with all this happening, Bitcoin's biggest critic, Peter Schiff, says,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure why bitcoin didn't sell off today, and
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: he's calling the rally kind of another opportunity to sell
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: and instead we are in a position right now where
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: bitcoin and crypto in general has been holding as Bitcoin
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: nears the sixty five k mark, and I think this
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: has been a bit of a surprise to some of
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: those out there. One of the catalysts that could be
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: into this is Jane Street bought two hundred and twenty
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  Speaker 1: five million of Michael Sailor Strategy shares. That's a pretty
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  Speaker 1: good position, and this is now worth two hundred and
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  Speaker 1: fifty million, so overall, Jane Street still pushing in on that.
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  Speaker 1: If you look at where Strategy is right now, you
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  Speaker 1: can kind of see it has bottomed out here and
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  Speaker 1: held around that eighty nine to ninety seven range, which
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  Speaker 1: is maybe the bottom. Will take a look at this
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  Speaker 1: in a few months to see if this was in
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: fact the case, and is Jane Street right. Let's go
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: into this piece right here. This is a big deal
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: because it puts the DTCC overseeing one hundred and fourteen
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  Speaker 1: trillion in securities. This, of course all launches on token
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I service in two months. You'll get everything from Russell
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: one thousand, all your favorite securities out there, all available now.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: This allows institutions to token I shares right now and
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: move them between an interesting word approved wallet. So the
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  Speaker 1: real question is how does that apply? Who does it
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  Speaker 1: apply to on this twenty four to seven twenty four
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  Speaker 1: to seven ruling, And I don't know. I think the
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: devil is in the details for this. This will really
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  Speaker 1: start to play out as we get more clarity on that.
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  Speaker 1: And if you look at the Blockchain Association, they essentially
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: put out a letter to try to push back against this,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: to create something that would kind of level the playing
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  Speaker 1: field and not allow the DTCC to have somewhat of
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  Speaker 1: a monopoly on this. So they submitted a comment letter
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  Speaker 1: urging the SEC to basically rescind the outdated rules of
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: six eleven and six ten. So I don't know if
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: this is going to have a major impact. It might
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: be mostly institutional capital. The question will be will retail
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: play into this more on the DeFi side or will
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: we just simply see the DCCs start to take all
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: of token is securities going forward. Other news right here
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: you have City announcing a big deal because they have
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: now announced custody plus. I guess they are now custodying
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: crypto and they're going to do near real time custody solutions.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what near real time means, but we'll
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: be watching this one closely because this could be another
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  Speaker 1: big deal and also an issue of what can you
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: do with this real time custody with custody plus all
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: that coming into the market right now. And this is
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  Speaker 1: all timed at a time in which Clarity has not
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  Speaker 1: been solidified, and also with midterms coming up as well,
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  Speaker 1: so this starts to change the structure of how things
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: could play out. Here is Anthony Scaramuchi is talking about
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: whether or not bitcoin has a catalyst here whether without
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  Speaker 1: Clarity take a look.
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  Speaker 5: I don't see a near term catalyst frankly, other than
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  Speaker 5: that supply demand differential. Moreover, I don't think the Clarity
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  Speaker 5: Act should it pass, and they still believe they can
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  Speaker 5: get this pass in September. That might be a tiny catalyst,
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  Speaker 5: but I don't see that as being a big catalyst either.
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  Speaker 5: So this is a grinding situation.
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  Speaker 4: To explain it to the audience, I would have thought
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  Speaker 4: that having this bill would be a big boon to
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: the business.
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  Speaker 5: Put simply, there'll be a lot of access opportunities for banks,
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  Speaker 5: and there'll be a lot of change and the way
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: you can hold your bitcoin in the United States. It
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  Speaker 5: is a contrarian opinion, by the way. I'm just saying, yes,
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  Speaker 5: if it could passes, it's great for us long term. Andrew,
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  Speaker 5: and obviously I really do want to see it pass,
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  Speaker 5: but I'm not the I'm not the permabule where I'm
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  Speaker 5: just gonna tell you nonsense on television, all right.
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  Speaker 1: So there was Moods talking about that in the sense
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  Speaker 1: that it may not necessarily have implementation into the market.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Mike novagrats. We played this clip, I think to a
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  Speaker 1: certain extent before, but I want to kind of revisit
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  Speaker 1: this because it gets into the strategy that maybe the
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  Speaker 1: House and the Senator are dealing with right now, and
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  Speaker 1: the White House and whether or not Trump even wants
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  Speaker 1: clarity take a look.
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  Speaker 6: Trump won in his mind, he won all the crypto money,
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  Speaker 6: and he won a lot of places because he was
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  Speaker 6: a pro crypto president. Listen, if they come out in
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  Speaker 6: the next two days and say, hey, we're going to
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  Speaker 6: take this compromise that five republic looking senators are behind
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  Speaker 6: right till Us and a bunch of them, we'll do this,
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: then you can blame the Democrats. But I fear that
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  Speaker 6: Trump doesn't want this to pass because he wants to
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  Speaker 6: be able to say, hey, it's the Democrat's fault. And
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  Speaker 6: I don't think he's going to be able to. I
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  Speaker 6: think Tillis has boxed him in to say, hey, it's
• 9:18
  Speaker 6: a very fair compromise on ethics. But it's a question
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  Speaker 6: of does the White House want this to pass now,
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  Speaker 6: and if so, it's going to pass. And if they don't,
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  Speaker 6: it'll wait till September maybe, or not happen at all.
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  Speaker 6: Because it is powerful, people will blame Democrats more than Republicans,
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  Speaker 6: and the White House has got the Buldy pulpit, and
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  Speaker 6: they're going to say it's.
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  Speaker 1: Their fault, their fault.
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  Speaker 6: But the reality is it's right there on earth plate
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  Speaker 6: right now.
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  Speaker 1: Well there it is right there in the sense of
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  Speaker 1: how this plays out, a lot of strategies being looked
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: at right now, especially this week where you have the
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: White House meeting with crypto industry executives, and I think
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  Speaker 1: this is maybe positioning as well as the SEC and
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: the CFTC this, this is maybe positioning how the industry
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: can deal with this going into the midterms. All right,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: just as a reminder this week, DC of course, is
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: going to be on the offensive. Here you have Mike
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Seeley of the CFTC doing what appeared to be a
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: very very polished video on this. I'm not sure who
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: paid for this, but years anti crypto armies, doomers, decelerationists,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: all stifled innovation. You kind of get the picture right here.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: And the CFTC is planning to turn the page all
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: of this happening to well this week August twentieth, on Thursday,
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  Speaker 1: So get ready for either a nothing burger that's going
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: to come out of this, or maybe there's going to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: be some sort of decision or at least indication of
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: how some of these negotiations are going to be done
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: With the Democrats. Other things that are being negotiated right
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: now is the OCC has conditionally approved the Trump linked
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: World Liberty five for a national Trust Bank charter. They'll
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: be able to issue USD one and custody digital assets now,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: which is a huge, huge issue because it does put
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  Speaker 1: a lot of pressure as we all know on bitgo.
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  Speaker 1: Remember bitco is a company that was handling capacity and
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: also the situation around custody for USD one, so interesting
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: times ahead for what's going to happen there. And it
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: also kind of gets it into a position where USD
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: one could who I guess the government is going to
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: oversee the Trump's operation on being able to print stable coins.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: This is going to get interesting, guys. Here's a clip
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: that Scaramuci talks about this. Take a look.
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: Well, I don't really think that's that big of a grenade.
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: I mean I was like, not even an M eighty.
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: I mean, listen, I mean I don't think it's fair
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: to take his family members who are business people and
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: tell them, well, you know, your dad's the president, so
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: you can no longer transact in business. So I do
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: not think that that's fair. It has to be looked
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: at carefully just to make sure that they're not a
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: great conflicts of interest.
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: I just know that way capitalists the idea that a
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: lot of these crypto companies are going to get bank
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: charters and what that ultimately does to the business longer term.
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: You know, I don't want to speak for coinbase or others,
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: but I think it would be prudent for them to
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: get banking licenses. And you know, the world liberty situation
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: could be a.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Tell, all right, could be a tell. Now. Remember we
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: showed a tweet by Secretary of Besset not too long ago.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: They were talking about the implementation of the Genius Act,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: which really kind of sets up the closing of the
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: doors around where stable cooin issue is going to be done.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: So interesting timing here with this and what mooch is
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: talking about. I'm just not sure because this, of course
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: is and appears to be a heavy conflict of interest.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Here was Austin Campbell speaking out against this. Simply said,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the OCC which would be allowing this is now which
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: could give any bank or stable coin issue that objects
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the death penalty. So you think about that, because Trump
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: essentially is controlling what's happening with the OCC. This is
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: a big deal because when you look at long term
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: how this plays out, especially in the midterms. What could
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: happen if, in fact, the Democrats end up winning this
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: meaning the midterms. If they do, there's going to be
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: trial and hearing, and trial and hearing after hearing. It's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: going to be unbelievable. Here's Austin Campbell asking, well, you
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: take a look.
• 13:29
  Speaker 7: If the Democrats take back the House or the Senate
• 13:33
  Speaker 7: or both, these guys become public enemy number one. From
• 13:38
  Speaker 7: an investigation perspective, the thing I would point to is
• 13:42
  Speaker 7: after twenty twenty eight, because I will remind everybody that
• 13:46
  Speaker 7: banking regulators have incredibly expansive powers in the United States,
• 13:52
  Speaker 7: unlike the SEC and CFTC, who are much more constrained.
• 13:56
  Speaker 7: Because this is a chartering process. If you have a
• 13:59
  Speaker 7: Democratic president in twenty twenty eight, they are going to
• 14:03
  Speaker 7: walk in and demand every communication, every policy, every procedure,
• 14:10
  Speaker 7: every decision, every commercial arrangement, and look through everything with
• 14:14
  Speaker 7: a fine tooth comb, and then have complete discretion to
• 14:17
  Speaker 7: punish you for everything you did that was not perfect.
• 14:20
  Speaker 7: Under a previous democratic administration, crypto companies were discriminated against
• 14:24
  Speaker 7: impermissibly by turning the process into the punishment. In something
• 14:29
  Speaker 7: that was called Operation Choke point two point zero, but
• 14:32
  Speaker 7: you could easily run call it a more targeted and
• 14:35
  Speaker 7: more direct version of that to make everybody's life hell
• 14:38
  Speaker 7: and create very large civil and possibly criminal penalties here
• 14:42
  Speaker 7: depending on what they find. So bank charter powers are
• 14:46
  Speaker 7: immense for the regulators. I would be very cautious.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: About this, all right, So you can kind of see
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: what Chris Perkins, we had him on the show. We
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: actually asked him that very same question. What happens if
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the dams do shift the and we start to see
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: these kind of things roll out. If anything, it's going
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: to put more and more pressure on crypto, much like
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: maybe even worse, could be ten x worse than what
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: we saw with FTX. So be thinking about that, guys,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: because it is an issue that we are now dealing with,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: especially as we go into a midterm with possibly a
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Democratic controlled Senate and House. One other thing, when you
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: look at this happening right now, the way it's happening,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and you consider the narratives that this industry is most
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: likely going to face, and that is that the big
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: banks are going to win, they're going to start to
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: implement all of this, you've got JP Morgan closing in
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: on becoming the world's first trillion dollar bank. The power
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: centers are shifting quickly, and I think this starts to
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: roll into one simple note, and that is that where
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: does crypto or where is crypto when all of this
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: starts to happen, does it get gobbled up by tradfy
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: or does it actually hold its ground going forward? If
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: this and this could just be one of many major
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: banks that go into that trillion dollar ecosystem in terms
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: of value. So all of this is happening right now
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean it's a bad thing. What it does mean
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: is you have to pay attention and really look at
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: this market in a kind of in a new lens.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: So keep your eyes open. We'll be covering this a
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: lot more. Take care. If you like this video, like
• 16:29
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• 16:33
  Speaker 1: our free private member group. The link is in the
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: description