Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / The Australia Institute's Dr. John Coyne says the idea that Australia might tear up the Port of Darwin lease could be a contentious issue for Chinese relations right now

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The Australia Institute's Dr. John Coyne says the idea that Australia might tear up the Port of Darwin lease could be a contentious issue for Chinese relations right now · 360 with Katie Woolf

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Now, as we know right now, there is quite a
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: bit happening in the defense base in the Northern Territory,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: exercises involving Australian troops and also US Marines. In fact,
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: more than two thousand Marines are based in Darwin as
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: part of annual training. Now we have seen in recent
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: weeks and months as well, Australia's relationship with China become
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  Speaker 1: well interesting, I guess you'd say, especially those relationships as
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: well with locations like the Solomon Islands and China becoming closer.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: So what does it all mean for the Northern Territory
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  Speaker 1: and what does it mean when it comes to those
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: training exercises that we see in the top end as well. Well.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Joining me on the line is John Coyn, the Australian
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  Speaker 1: Strategic Policy Institutes John Coyn, he is indeed the head
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  Speaker 1: of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Center. Good morning to you, John,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Good morning Katie.
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  Speaker 2: That don't make those party.
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  Speaker 1: It's a long title, Mash.
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  Speaker 2: I know it's terrible.
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  Speaker 1: It's great because it actually shows as well what your
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: expertise is in. And I know that you and I
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: have spoken on numerous occasions. We haven't spoken for a
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  Speaker 1: little while, well not since the federal election. Firstly, what
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  Speaker 1: do you think that that relationship, Well, how do you
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  Speaker 1: think our relationship with China is going to change or
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  Speaker 1: be impacted following on from the federal election.
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  Speaker 2: Look, I think it's pretty clear that Labor is going
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  Speaker 2: to try to government is going to try to reset
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  Speaker 2: button with the Chinese Communist Party. But thatwithstanding, I think
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  Speaker 2: it's interesting. You know, we're very very fortunate in this
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  Speaker 2: country and I think I've said a toe you and
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  Speaker 2: your listeners before. You know, we have a bipartisan approach
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  Speaker 2: to defense and national security. So whilst some of the
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: language might be toned down a little and we might
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  Speaker 2: be a little bit more statesman like in our approach
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  Speaker 2: to how we spell out the problem, I don't think
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  Speaker 2: there'll be any fundamental changes in the ongoing concern that
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  Speaker 2: we have about the activities of Chinese Communist Party in
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  Speaker 2: the Indo Pacific and especially the Pacific. And you know,
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  Speaker 2: the Prime Minister put this very very well at his
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  Speaker 2: first speech. China has changed.
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  Speaker 1: There has been some really interesting developments, I guess you'd say, though,
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  Speaker 1: hasn't there in the recent months, particularly when you talk
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  Speaker 1: about that agreement with China and the Solomon Islands. What
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  Speaker 1: you know, what does that mean? Do you think for
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  Speaker 1: a place like the Northern Territory, Look, you know.
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  Speaker 2: What the amounts like this, it really does spell a
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  Speaker 2: challenge for the government and indeed it spells a big
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  Speaker 2: challenge for Northern Australia. It's what I like to cause
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  Speaker 2: sal army sizing. So it's an effective approach that the
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  Speaker 2: Chinese Commonist Party have You've been using for years. So
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  Speaker 2: you know, they make an agreement in Jibouti, they say
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  Speaker 2: it's not a base and within a few years later
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  Speaker 2: to slow things and slow changes and before you know,
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  Speaker 2: there's a full blow on people's liberation army facility in Dribouting.
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  Speaker 2: You know, it's the same thing in regards to the
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  Speaker 2: islands in the South China Sea, which is you know,
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese Coming Party said we will never militarize them.
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  Speaker 2: That's not what we're going to do. So what has
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  Speaker 2: it done. Well, has built them bigger and it hasn't
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  Speaker 2: militarized them. It's defended them and put missiles on them,
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  Speaker 2: extended runway so bombers can go there. So you know,
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  Speaker 2: it's this thin fal Army slighting. So for the Northern Territory, Well,
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  Speaker 2: what does that mean in Northern Australia more broadly? You
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  Speaker 2: know what it means the same is it meant before
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  Speaker 2: the arrival of the first white, white Europeans into this country.
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  Speaker 2: It means that Northern Australia remains a key social economic
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  Speaker 2: link into the region and into the Indo Pacific. It
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  Speaker 2: should be front and center of our mind and it
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  Speaker 2: has become really important in terms of strategic location for
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  Speaker 2: supporting a range of contingencies that go everything everywhere from
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  Speaker 2: humanitarian assistance and disaster, the relief in the region all
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  Speaker 2: the way through to hopefully never to occur, but to conflict.
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  Speaker 1: And so then you know, sort of taking all of
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  Speaker 1: that into account and looking at you know, even now
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  Speaker 1: in the Northern Territory, Like right now, we know that
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: there are different exercises happening with the US Marines. Do
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  Speaker 1: you think that we're going to see those numbers of
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  Speaker 1: US Marines bolstered in the territory? Look?
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  Speaker 2: Possibly not. I'm earlier this year I think that I
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  Speaker 2: found myself visiting Indo Doocific Command and which is the
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  Speaker 2: major headquarters for the US's indodocific military capability, and I
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  Speaker 2: think the very public statements there was that the Americans
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  Speaker 2: were keen, especially when it came to the US Army
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  Speaker 2: and US Marine the furthest split up their forces across
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  Speaker 2: the region. But I do think we're going to see
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  Speaker 2: more regular visits and they're going to be there will
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  Speaker 2: be at times a range of new capabilities. There'll be
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  Speaker 2: lots of exercising both to improve in the operability between
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  Speaker 2: Australia and the US and also to send a very
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  Speaker 2: clear message to the region that the US has got
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  Speaker 2: an ongoing commitment to the ends of alliance and the
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  Speaker 2: bilateral alliance with Australia. And I think that we'll see
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  Speaker 2: a lot more investment in terms of logistics and facilities
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  Speaker 2: across Northern Australia to ensure that they're ready to support
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  Speaker 2: a range of other activities.
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  Speaker 1: I know that you know, obviously we spoke about the
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  Speaker 1: Solomon Islands, but I know that there's a lot of
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  Speaker 1: people as well kind of keeping an eye I guess
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  Speaker 1: on places like East Team or as well. I'm wondering
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  Speaker 1: whether China is going to do some jostling to you know,
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  Speaker 1: to become more present. I don't know if that's the
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  Speaker 1: right word in locations like that. Do you think that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, do you think that we are going to
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  Speaker 1: see that in coming years.
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  Speaker 2: Look, there's seems to be very clear case evidence that
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese Commonist Party have indeed been using checkbook diplomacy
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  Speaker 2: all over the region in order to gain access and
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  Speaker 2: in order to gain new friends. You know, we're a
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  Speaker 2: very very young nation here in Australia, but over two
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  Speaker 2: hundred years of working and living in both with the
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  Speaker 2: Pacific and with the Southeast Asia more broadly the Indo Pacific,
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  Speaker 2: I think we've learned over time that many of those longest,
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  Speaker 2: the best, the most trusting relationships can't be built on
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  Speaker 2: czechbook relationships. You know, they have to be based on
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  Speaker 2: strong interpersonal skills and strong interpersonal connections. And we are
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  Speaker 2: very fortunate, you know, if we look at if we
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  Speaker 2: look at Expatrick populations as an example, So the world's
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  Speaker 2: largest pup New Guinea expatric population is in Cairnes in
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  Speaker 2: North Queensland. So that's a bridge. What we have is
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  Speaker 2: the world's most likely the world's largest East Team Rise
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  Speaker 2: Expatrick population in Darwen, and that's a bridge. We have
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  Speaker 2: great interconnectivity between across multiple generations, between Indonesia and Darwa.
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  Speaker 2: These are really important bridges and really important relationships. In
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  Speaker 2: law enforcement. We've had Australian Federal Police working with Indonesian
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  Speaker 2: National Police to address terrorism, to address and investigate a
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  Speaker 2: range of events. We've had the ADF deploy after the
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  Speaker 2: Boxing Day Tsunamis to help recover people in Indonesia. And look,
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  Speaker 2: the same can be said in the Pacific as well.
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  Speaker 1: And so you reckon those, you know, those good relationships
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  Speaker 1: that we have tried to forge over many many years
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  Speaker 1: are going to kind of outweigh what you call before
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  Speaker 1: that checkbook diplomacy.
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  Speaker 2: I think they'll outlast the checkbook diplomacy. You know, you
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  Speaker 2: will win in the short term with checkbook diplomacy, but
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  Speaker 2: when you start calling in your debt and the person
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: who's been on the receiving end of that money starts
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  Speaker 2: to see what the cost of that money actually was.
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  Speaker 2: And the other part and component of it is is
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  Speaker 2: that you know, the Chinese Commist Party is about keeping
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese Commist Party in power. Most of the governments
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  Speaker 2: in our region are democracies and they're about representing the people.
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  Speaker 2: Those two things are incongruent in the long run. So
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  Speaker 2: and I would like to think that you know, many
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  Speaker 2: of these countries have strived, have strived and struggled through
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  Speaker 2: colonialism and post colonialism to find their own forms as privacy.
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  Speaker 2: This struggles included, you know, deep reforms they're policing to
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  Speaker 2: make sure that they're more democratic policing rather than just
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  Speaker 2: looking after the government, so they serve the people. I
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  Speaker 2: don't see the people in this region wanting to go backwards.
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  Speaker 1: It's certainly really interesting. I suppose one of the other
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  Speaker 1: things that we always wonder about as well, John, when
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  Speaker 1: we talk about, you know, that relationship with China, and
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  Speaker 1: you know what's been a very interesting sort of period
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  Speaker 1: of time. There has been talk again really last week
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  Speaker 1: about the Darwin Port and its lease for that ninety
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: nine year period. We know that last week the new
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister, Anthony Albanesi confirmed that a review of the
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: lease of the Port of Darwin will be undertaken. It
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  Speaker 1: did raise, I guess those fresh questions over the future
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  Speaker 1: of the lease with land Bridge. I mean, what kind
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  Speaker 1: of impact do you think these you know, these reviews
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  Speaker 1: into the lease. Do you think that it has much
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  Speaker 1: of an impact, you know, on our relationship with China.
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  Speaker 1: What do you know, what where do you think it's
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  Speaker 1: all going to land with that?
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  Speaker 3: We're most definitely Beijing will be incredibly unhappy with the
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  Speaker 3: reversal of a major contract or agreement, and it's unhappy
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  Speaker 3: and will continue to be unhappy with any state that.
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  Speaker 2: Stands in the way of its grand strategy. So the
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  Speaker 2: idea that you know that Australia might have the audacity
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  Speaker 2: to consider sovereignty and in a way that you know,
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  Speaker 2: but they're not a fearful of the Chinese Communist Party
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  Speaker 2: would indeed be would be worrisome for Beijing. So we
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  Speaker 2: can expect that, you know, the fact that the whole
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  Speaker 2: decision over over the future of the Port of Darwin
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  Speaker 2: still is in flux and still uncertain, it really will
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  Speaker 2: be a bur in the side of the Chinese Communist Party.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Well, it is always interesting to talk to you, Dr
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  Speaker 1: John Coyn. I always appreciate your time and you're insight
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  Speaker 1: in this space. Thank you very much for joining us
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: on air today.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: No, it's all my pleasure. Thank Riccardi.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you