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Markets, COVID, Twitter, And Crypto · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Pretty Miserable, Managing Director,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Global head of Race Strategy of TV Securities, joins us,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: and I know she doesn't want to talk about power
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: trains on the four f one fifty truck. We want
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: to talk to you pre about what your fetter reserve
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: is gonna do here. I mean, we had a pretty strong,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: solid payroll number on Friday, but boy, there's a lot
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: of inflation out there. How do you think your feederal
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: reserve is gonna react in the weeks and months going forward.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess one analogy to your power truck
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: talk before is I think the Fed has to be aggressive.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, policy is very accommodative given the
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: economic outclook right now, and so I think they are
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: signaling that they want to get to neutral fast. I
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: think the big debate in the market is do they
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: have to go above neutral? How much above neutral? Can
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the engineer a soft landing, or will they force economy
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: into a recession to try and get inflation credibility? But
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the one clear message we're getting is they want to
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: normalize at least to whatever neutral is. And you know,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: neutral for the funds rate, I would say is in
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: the two and a half percent funds rate. So we
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: are expecting the fret to high fifty basis points in
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: May June, then continue with twenty until they get to
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: that neutral point. We also expect them to start QT
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: very soon in in May. You know our part of normalization.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Our question of the day on the m Live blog
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: was where is our star? What is it? What is
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the neutral rate right now? And I guess, first it
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: depends if you're talking about real or nominal, But um,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: how do you get to that number? Right And there's
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of research done on this. It tends to
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: come to the our star, so the real equilibrium rate
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: being somewhere between zero and fifty basis points. But there's
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: a very wide range of estimates around this, uh, this
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: median estimate. You know, there are those that argued its negative.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to throw another point in here that when
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the FED is letting the balance sheet run off, I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: think our star, even the real number is probably lower
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: than it would be if the FED was not letting
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the balance sheet run off. So when we run these
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: historical metrics, you know, the balance sheets totally run off
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: once before, and I would argue that the FED did
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: overdo it last time when they took the funds rate
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: to two and a half. So I would say, is
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: it closer to zero is what we would call neutral?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: But you know, the FED is humble and we're all
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: humble as we're figuring out what neutral is. I think
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: that's why the FED might want to maybe speed it
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: up in the near term. That's why we've got the
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: two back to back fifties, and then slowly get to
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: that neutral, because then the economy should show signs that
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: we're nearing our star, even if we don't have a
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: great sense of what it is. You know, beforehand, we
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: should see the consumer start to slow down and corporate
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: start to slow down, and that'll be a sign that
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: we're getting close to neutral. The fight should start to
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: get you know, slow down, then become more cautious. There
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: was a great tweet I think it was over the
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: weekend by UM Roberto ap Peary, who worked at Piper
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: works at Piper Sandler UM. He shows a chart his
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: his estimated nominal neutral rate is charted along with the
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: FEDS funds rate since nineteen sixty one. And every time
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: UM it seems the FED funds rate touches or gets
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: beyond the nominal neutral rate, it drives us into a recession.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Do you expect a recession? So we don't expect a
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: recession because we don't expect to fit to go much
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: above neutral. So it's, you know, the two we have.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: You should be consistent for those who argue that the
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Fed's going to go to three and a half for
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: above three percent on the funds rate, and the market
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: is now pricing in three point one as the end
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: point of the hiking cycle, I think then it's very
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: reasonable that the economy slows down significantly and the Fed
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: may have to cut right after that. And that's why
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: you look at the yield curve or just just uh,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: you know, forwards pricing in almost three rate cuts, UM,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: you know, after terminal rate has reached, because we have
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the FED slowing down as they approach neutral and not
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: going much above neutral. We're sort of expecting that the
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: FED will engineer the soft landing and they don't. We
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: don't have a recession, they don't need to cut. But
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: there are these two possibilities. There is a case where
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: inflation forces them to go above neutral, and then I
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: think the economy slows down, perhaps goes into recession. I'm
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: somewhat sympathetic to the idea that if the unemployment rate
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: rises a little bit, hard to prevent that from just
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: rising a little bit, and that's when you do, you know,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the Psalm rule kicks in and you actually go into
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a recession. So that's a reasonable, uh, you know, possible
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: outcome right now. All right, Priya, thank you so much
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: for joining us. Really appreciate getting your thoughts and perspective
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: here as our freder Reserve UH continues on its rate
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: hike UH plan. Here Priamra Managing director and Global head
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: of Rate Strategy at t D Securities. You know, Matt
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Sin's the beginning of this pandemic thing. We've been leaning
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: on this dude name Sam Fizzelli. And who is this guy,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Sam Fizzelli. He's been on Bloomberg News. He writes stuff.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: He's on TV's on radio. Why Sam Fizzelli, Well, here's
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: his day job. He's ahead of the European research, all
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: of research for Bloomberg Intelligence in Europe. So he's got
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: like fifty seventy five people reporting to him. So he's
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: in theory a manager but that's debatable. But his big
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: call to famous, he's a Paul likes to dump on managers.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Just f y I exactly. But his claim to famous,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: he's really really made his chops. He's one of the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: top pharmaceutical medical medical analysts in the city of London
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: and occasionally he comes to New York to share his expertise. Yeah,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: he's crazy. He does a wine thing. He's a wine
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: o two so we've got that going from. But he's
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: actually in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio today, Sam, thanks
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: what for joining us. For me? The pandemics in the
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: rear view mirror am a little bit. I've been seeing
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: that for months. Yeah, I think that was Paul's wish
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: every morning or every evening before going to bed in
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Neil Place bed and did this. But first of one,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: kind of just say how nice it is to be
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: here together with you in the flesh, so that already
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and there are a lot of people in the office today,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: and that gives And it's a Monday, right, suppose three
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Mondays and Fridays should be light. But that to a
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: degree place to your comment in that I felt comfortable
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: enough to get on the plane to come here. I
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: looked at case counts here. Okay, they may be going
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: up a little bit, but nothing like what we had before.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I thought, this is my opportunity. Hopefully will never go
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: back to what it was before. I don't think the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: virus has quite finished with us, but still we're in
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: a period where we are able to manage all this pressure.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: With the vaccines that we've all had and the drugs
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: that we've got. We certainly see well, it feels like
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the mutations are less deadly. Um since delta right? Um?
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Is that the case for viruses? Do they mutate in
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: less and less deadly forms? Or is it possible that
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: what some mutation comes along that is again, um, severe
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: in terms of the disease it causes. Yeah, man, I
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: think we looked out there a little bit. We've got it.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: We've got a variant that was much more transmissible and
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: through that it also changed the way that infected us,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: so we ended up getting upper respiratory tracts, so called infections,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: rather than deep lung, which is where the trouble starts.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: So but I have to say, in an unvaccinated person,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: this is not an easy infection, right. We're just lucky
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: that we all have Most of us have been vaccinated
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: or prior infected, so there is no rhyme or reason
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: the virus. Once it's infected you and infected the next person,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: it doesn't care what happens to you. I mean, not
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: that it's but we are kind of holding to the
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: same schedule as the Spanish flu. I know that's a
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: misnomer now, and my wife who's from Spain hates it
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: when she's like, it's the Kansas flu. We called it
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: the Spanish that's hung around for like two years. Right.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: It was deadly at first and then got less and
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: less deadly, and now it's the flu that we all
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: you'll get. But it's immunity, that's that's the difference. Over
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: those two or three years. You build up immunity either
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: through an infection, which is not the ideal way, or
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: through the vaccines that they give us, which was great.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So that's what the difference is, and I think we
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: have we can't separate the two from each other. Is
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: it possible that another variant turns up that's back to
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: the high virulence of the previous Delta variant and more transmissible. Yes,
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I mean it's all random as far as the virus
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: is concerned. Once you're infected and it's had the opportunity
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: to jump to the next victim. Whatever, it doesn't care
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: what happens to you. You can go and die whatever.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: It makes no difference, right, that's the critical part here
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that can happen by accident. Hopefully it won't. Hopefully our
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: immune system gets us controlled Delta. I mean, if you
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: look at everyone says o Acron's less virulent or less problematic,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: look at Delta. The death rate per case for Delta
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: was already pretty low. So it's the vaccines. So are
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: we back? Are we back to? Are we back down
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: to a level that is more like the traditional flu
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in terms of case fatality? Not really, because it all
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: depends on which country you look at and what age
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: group you look at. That there are age groups where
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: the number of deaths are still high and perhaps would
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: benefit from a fourth shot, which sure is the next
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: thing you gonna ask exactly? I mean they present. Biden
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: came out recently said that those over fifty in this country,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: I think I might be a to check my license.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: I might be above fifty. You can get a fourth booster,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: get a fourth shot, another booster? Do I need that?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm getting in line, by the way, when they
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: start offering it, I'll be the first in line. You
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: can go get it now, dude, can one's checking your
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: ID at CVS? Okay, you just walk in and get
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: a shot. All right, we'll do that. Yeah. No. So,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: so the thing is, do you want to play wackam
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: all with this forever? If we talking about preventing severe disease,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: you not getting bad disease below the age of seventy.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I don't see the data. There's no There seems to
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: be no difference if you had a fourth or a
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: third shot based on current data. Remember that's been an
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: important thing for us to remember every time we talk
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: about this. The data evolves because it's you know, we're
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: literally building the ship as we're trying to say it.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Um so below the age of seventy, I haven't seen
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: data that convinces me a fourth shot makes a difference
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: to severe disease. If you want to have three or
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: four months of cover not to catch it, you probably
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: could do with that, and you get this boost in
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: antibodies that will contract again, so that whack a mole game?
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Or do you want to prevent severe disease? How about
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: our friends in China. I don't see that ending while there.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've had such a zero tolerance policy which
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: arguably worked for them in terms of the disease. Maybe
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: not so much further economy and the global economy, but
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: certainly for them and the disease. But Armicrons seems like
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: it doesn't really care about that. What what changed for
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: them was Omicron. They did everything right. They had a
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: great I mean, they had a fantastic track record in
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: terms of a number of people who died compared to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: us or in the UK. But what changed was Omicron.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, they did everything right in terms of keeping
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: people alive. You mean, right, right, right? Oh, no, probably sucked.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Mental health is a totally different conversation for us to
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: have the impact under healthcare in other areas. But now
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Omicron is not playing by the by the right by
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the right room. But fortunately not. I was gonna say
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: not as deadly, but you met. You pointed out for
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: for vaccinated people, how many people they are vaccinated. So
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the numbers I'm hearing is that only thirty or of
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: people that are in the risk group of more aged
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: older people are only ever arm right, right, So what
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: they need, which is what we argued in a piece
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: we wrote with the Economist team, is to get an
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: m modern a shot into those arms or something equivalent
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: in terms of is that going to happen? You think, well,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I've just seen news over the weekend that they're starting
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: excuse me, two trials with different The modern dy vaccine
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: is homegrown. But why do that rather than going somewhere
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: where there's an enormous body of data that tells you
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: exactly what to expect if you gave them a biolome
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: when love to go in there and put jobs in
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: a couple of billion people, why not? But also, Biotics
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: already got a partner in China. They already filed the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: data in China to my estimation, at least six months
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: ago plus with corporate espionage, they probably have all the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: data anyway, right they look but at the end of
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the day, go with the vaccine that you know does
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: what I tell you. We complain about these big farmer
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: companies gouging us on drugs, but boy, they came through
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: here in this pandemic. I mean they really did, in
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: my opinion. I mean they one year, these guys came
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: out with this stuff and they got it into people's arms.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: And hopefully we can do it in some of these
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: developing countries as well. Sam Fazelli, thanks so much for
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: joining us live, Yes live in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: studio comes to us live from London, usually on the phone,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: but we got him here in New York. I guess
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I gotta buy him dinner tonight. He's had a European
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: research for Bloomberg Intelligence, big time farmer analysts over there
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: in the city London. He's a real hot shot, but
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: we got him in our studios. I think Elon Musk
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: has some restrictions on actually being on Twitter tweeting, but
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: doesn't stop him from buying Twitter. I have to admit
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: it doesn't stop him from tweeting either. Yeah, he didn't
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: care about silly sec but I'll say I did not
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: see this news. This morning him taking a steak in Twitter.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe somebody smarter than us did see this, Hey, Dan
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: dan Ives, Managing Director Senior Equity Alice at web Bush Securities,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: and a proud Penn stater or joins us day before
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: we get to that. Actually, Dan, I was thinking about
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: you this weekend. I went back to my mom's garage
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: and Graham Bell, Ohio to pick up an older classic
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Duccatti Monster S four R S sure, and I drove
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: it back here to New York as I was, I don't.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I thought it would be fun, and it actually wasn't.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: But it was one thing that was cool was I
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: did stop in State College in Happy Valley and I
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: thought about Dan dan Ives. Uh, Dan, what do you
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: make of this? What's Elon doing here? Look? I think
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: this is really the start of what's going to be
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: a shake up at Twitter. I mean, Musk doesn't just
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: do a passive nine percent stake for fun, So I
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: think this is ultimately the start of a broader role
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: at Twitter. And you know, this is really ultimately Musk
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: expanding the ecosystem. That's why the streets reading this as
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: basically this is the start of something much bigger that
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Musk is leading. But so we were taking passive as
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: meaning he won't take a board seat or you know,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: tell um the C suite what to do. But does
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: passive means something else? Yeah? I mean, look, there's a
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: better chance to meet playing Augusta this weekend in must keeping,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: but then must keeping just a passive steak. I mean,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: this is going to go active above the ten percent.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: It's a matter of their conversations with the board and
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: do they ultimately play ball. But I think that's really
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the view. Is that especially Twitter, which has been the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: right lane, I mean where others have passed him in
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the left lane the social media from a monization perspective,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: it's been disappointing. And of course Musk is is there's
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: not no secret in terms of his criticism of Twitter.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: So it's a look, if if the bank has your house,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: then you can just buy the bank. And I think
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: he's going down that path. We got to see which
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: direction it goes. But obviously for Twitter it's bullish because
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: clearly that he's going to shake things up. Dan, what
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: do you think he could do here or should do here?
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: What I think he could do is at least board
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: seats get more active, a new suite of directors and
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: then ultimately will to either change some of the policies,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: you know, by being on the board, and then eventually,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: depending on how it all shakes out, I mean, this
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: could ultimately lead to a sale. You know, obviously private
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: A quickly get involved. And I think that's that's the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: view here, is that this soap opera, this is just
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: a start of what's going to happen with Musk and Twitter.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: And because as we all know, I mean, Musk is
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: not someone that just puts one tone the water, right,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: and I think he's gonna be a lot more aggressive,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: you know, I think in the coming months and year,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: especially as it comes to Twitter. What does he want
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: to change a Twitter? What has he been unhappy about? Well, clearly,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: I mean that there's a lot of criticism that that
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: he's talked about in terms of freedom of speech and
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: others on Twitter. I think it's led to you know,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: his view that he was really gonna try to create
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: his own social media platform, which is we all know
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: that's extremely difficult. And obviously you know, he looked at
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: and his advisers looked to the situation, but doors he'd
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: go into the background, you know, with a lot of
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: sort of passive steaks in Twitter, I think there was
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: an opportunity and he recognized it was now or never
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: to to really go after Twitter. And I think this
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: is the start, right in terms of a passive ownership stake,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: which likely goes to active and now it's a matter
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: of what the next step is. Danny, you followed Elon
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Muskin and Ted Tesla and his career for a long time.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: What do you think is this from a portfolio perspective,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: his personal portfolio of assets. You know, some people are
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: suggesting this is the beginning of him trying to diversify
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit. You expect him to be spreading more
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: of his wealth out into other companies, other industries. How
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: do you think about that? Yeah, And remember he's not
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: an activist like in the sense like an icon or others.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: He doesn't view it like that. Just getting into his mind, right,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, the way must us this is that just
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: like he did on EVS, just like he did with Space,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: He's like he looks at social media like something's wrong here.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: From his viewpoint, this needs to be changed, and I'm
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: going to change it. And I'm the rich personal world
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to start that, and I think that's
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: that's what he's really going down with Twitter. Now. The
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: conversation is like, what's the next step. Can you change
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: monization of the platform, algorithms advertising? Right? These are all
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: things from an investor perspective, it's not just the whole
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: you know, chronic Freemer's speech issue. So I think that's
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: really going to be the focus going forward to what
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the next steps are. But you know, this is one
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: where I think for Twitter from an investor perspective, they
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: obviously welcome this because there's very few that could rock
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: the boat like this, and Musk is obviously one interesting stuff.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know what. I just don't know what this
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: guy's gonna do with this thing. It's it's it's really
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: amazing and uh I didn't see this coming at all.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: But anyway, exciting though, right, good stuff. Yeah, it's great
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: for Monday. Hey, Dan, thanks so much for joining us.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: You always appreciate getting your perspective. Dan ives he's a
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: managing director, he's a senior equity analyst, covers all this
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: tech stuff, all the Internet. I think Elon Musk has
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: some restrictions on actually being on Twitter tweeting, but doesn't
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: stop him from buying Twitter. I have to admit it
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't stop him from tweeting either. Yeah, he didn't care
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: about silly sec But I'll say I did not see
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: this news this morning, him taking a steak in Twitter.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe somebody smarter than us did see this. Hey, Dan
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: dan Ives, managing director of Senior Equity anlyse At web
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Bush Securities, and a proud Penn State or joins us
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: day before we get to that. Actually, Dan, I was
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: thinking about you this weekend. I went back to my
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: mom's garage and Graham Bell, Ohio to pick up an
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: older classic Duccatti Monster S four r S and I
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: drove it back here to New York as I was
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: I don't I thought it would be fun, and it
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: actually wasn't. But it was one thing that was cool
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: was I did stop in State College in Happy Valley
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: and I thought about Dan dan Ives? Uh, Dan, what
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: do you make of this? What's Elon doing here? Look?
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I think this is really the start of what's going
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: to be a shake up at Twitter. I mean, Musk
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: doesn't just do a passive nine percent stake for fun,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: So I think this is ultimately the start of a
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: broader role at Twitter. And you know this is really
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: ultimately Musk expanding the equosystem. That's why the streets reading
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: this as basically, this is the start of something much
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: bigger that Musk is leading. But so we were taking
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: passive as meaning he won't take a board seat or
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: you know, tell um the c suite what to do.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: But does passive means something else? Yeah? I mean, look,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: there's a better chance to meet playing in Augusta this
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: weekend and must keeping, but then must keeping just a
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: passive steak. I mean, this is going to go active
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: above the ten percent. It's a matter of their conversations
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: with the board and do they ultimately play ball. But
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's really the view. Is that especially Twitter,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: which has been the right lane, I mean where others
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: have passed him in the left lane? There's social media
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: from a monization perspective, it's been disappointing, and of course
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Musk is is you know, there's not no secret in
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: terms of his criticism of Twitter. So it's a look,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: if if the bank has your house, then you can
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: just buy the bank. And I think he's going down
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: that path. We got to see which direction it goes.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: But obviously for Twitter it's bullish because clearly that he's
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: going to shake things up, Dan, what do you think
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: he could do here or should do here? Where I
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: think he could do is at least board seats, get
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: more active, a new suite of directors, and then ultimately
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: will to either change some of the policies, you know,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: by being on the board, and then eventually depending on
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: how it all shakes out, I mean, this could ultimately
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: lead to a sale. You know, obviously private acquickly get involved.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: And I think that's that's the view here, is that
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: this soap opera, this is just a start of what's
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: going to happen with Musk and Twitter. And because as
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: we all know, I mean, Musk is not someone that
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: just puts one tone in the water, right and I
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna be a lot more aggressive, you know,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: I think in the coming months and year, especially as
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: it comes Twitter. What does he want to change a Twitter?
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: What has he been unhappy about? Well, clearly, I mean
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that there's a lot of criticism that that he's talked
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: about in terms of freedom of speech and others on Twitter.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's led to you know, his view that
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: he was really gonna try to create his own social
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: media platform, which is we all know that's extremely difficult.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: And obviously, you know, he looked at and his advisers
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: look to the situation, but doors he'd go into the background,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: you know, with a lot of sort of passive steaks
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: in Twitter. I think there was an opportunity and he
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: recognized it was now or never to to really go
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: after Twitter. And I think this is the start, right
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: in terms of a passive ownership stake, which likely goes
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: to active and now it's a matter of what the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: next step is. Danny, you followed Elon Muskin and Ted
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Tesla and his career for a long time. Do what
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: do you think? Is this that from a portfolio perspective,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: his personal portfolio of assets. You know, some people are
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: suggesting this is the beginning of him trying to diversify
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit. You expect him to be spreading more
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: of his wealth out into other companies, other industries. How
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: do you think about that? Yeah, and remember he's not
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: an activist, like in the sense like an icon or others.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: He doesn't view it like that. Just getting into his mind, right,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, the way must us this is that just
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: like he did on EVS, just like he did with Space.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: He's like, he looks at social media like something's wrong here.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: From his viewpoint, this needs to be changed, and I'm
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: going to change it. And I'm the rich personal world
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to start that. And I think that's
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: that's what he's really going down with Twitter. Now. The
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: conversation is like, what's the next step. Can you change
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: monization of the platform, algorithms advertising? Right? These are all
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: things from an investor perspective, it's not just the whole
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: you know, chron quote Freemer's speech issue. So I think
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: that's really going to be the focus going forward to
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: what the next steps are. But you know, this is
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: one where I think for Twitter from an investor perspective,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: they obviously welcome this because there's very few that could
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: rock the boat like this, and Musk is obviously one
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: interesting stuff. I don't know what. I just don't know
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: what this guy is gonna do with this thing. It's
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: it's it's really amazing and uh, I didn't see this
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: coming at all. But anyway, exciting though, right, good stuff. Yeah,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: it's great for Monday. Hey Dan, thanks so much for
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: joining us. We always appreciate getting your perspective. Dan ives
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: he's a managing director, he's a senior echoity analyst, covers
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: all this tech stuff, all the Internet. Uh. And he's been,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: you know, really bullish on Tesla and really right on Tesla.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: And now we've got Elon Musk again taking a nine
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: point two percent steak in a Twitter. Some exciting news
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: for a Monday morning. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on fall
• 25:43
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• 25:45
  Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio