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Transcript

Daily Clips with Ashley Kuenzi · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_00: We're clear to engage.
0:01
SPEAKER_00: Time on target.
0:02
SPEAKER_00: Fire Mike.
0:21
SPEAKER_01: Welcome back to Crosstabs, everybody.
0:25
SPEAKER_01: Last week, we were without Bryan Iverson.
0:28
SPEAKER_01: This week, not only do we add Bryan Iverson, but we add a new and hopefully regular guest.
0:37
SPEAKER_01: uh, Ashley Kenzie from, well, she works at the Senate Republican office as a communications director.
0:43
SPEAKER_01: She's also,
0:43
SPEAKER_01: um,
0:44
SPEAKER_01: an excellent writer,
0:45
SPEAKER_01: a,
0:45
SPEAKER_01: uh,
0:47
SPEAKER_01: political campaign and,
0:49
SPEAKER_01: and Republican operative with a lot of experience in key races.
0:53
SPEAKER_01: So we're happy to add Ashley to the program to really balance out.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: Um, mostly Brian, but you know, a little bit me too, I think, um, it's not fair.
1:03
SPEAKER_01: Um,
1:06
SPEAKER_00: Well, thanks for having me.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: I always say that I don't have a voice for radio, which also means I don't have a voice for podcasting.
1:13
SPEAKER_00: So I'm honored that you asked me to be here.
1:16
SPEAKER_00: I was a little surprised and pleasantly at that.
1:20
SPEAKER_01: If you were around the 2023 legislative session,
1:24
SPEAKER_01: especially the walkout,
1:25
SPEAKER_01: I think the most important thing you need to know is that Ashley created the red
1:30
SPEAKER_01: follow the law graphic that became the mantra.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: of the entire walkout and negotiation and all of that.
1:42
SPEAKER_01: Brian's talked about this before a little bit on how we won the messaging war on that.
1:48
SPEAKER_01: I think that was in one of our early episodes, Brian.
1:51
SPEAKER_01: on that walkout uh we dominated that and ashley you were really key and important
1:55
SPEAKER_01: in um getting that done um your your ability to to snap back even in the small club
2:02
SPEAKER_01: that is orpole twitter we know that there were uh you know the the the mugs were
2:08
SPEAKER_01: full of liberal tears um at your work and so um tremendous to have you on here
2:15
SPEAKER_01: And we just thought, you know, you you follow you write the daily clips.
2:19
SPEAKER_01: So you guys have a lot of subscribers to the daily clips that you send out from the
2:23
SPEAKER_01: Senate Republican office.
2:24
SPEAKER_01: So you're really heavily obviously for your job.
2:27
SPEAKER_01: And,
2:27
SPEAKER_01: you know,
2:28
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you were sad enough like me to to follow all these links before it
2:32
SPEAKER_01: was your job to do it like me and Brian.
2:35
SPEAKER_01: But you have a heart.
2:38
SPEAKER_01: uh you have the heartbeat you got the pulse is what i'm looking for not the
2:41
SPEAKER_01: heartbeat the pulse of the news and so um you know i'm gonna give credit to brian
2:46
SPEAKER_02: on this one first making a suggestion on okay that's enough already i mean you know
2:50
SPEAKER_02: it's not like she's won a presidential race or anything yet i mean you know yeah
2:55
SPEAKER_01: good point good point
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Well, speaking of presidential race, I, of course, want to get to state and local politics.
3:03
SPEAKER_00: But since you mentioned the presidential race,
3:05
SPEAKER_00: there was a pullout this morning that Trump has a very slight lead over Harris.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: Curious your guys' thoughts on that.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we all know that the debate is coming up tomorrow evening.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: What are your comments?
3:21
SPEAKER_01: Which poll is that, Ashley?
3:22
SPEAKER_01: I need to look at that.
3:23
SPEAKER_02: It was a CNN one, right, that you were referring to.
3:26
SPEAKER_02: Well, all the, I guess when they congregate the polls, right, they basically gave them
3:32
SPEAKER_02: a little bit of an edge.
3:35
SPEAKER_02: My take on the national stuff is really,
3:39
SPEAKER_02: I think we've seen,
3:40
SPEAKER_02: or I hope we've seen,
3:42
SPEAKER_02: I should say,
3:43
SPEAKER_02: as a Republican,
3:44
SPEAKER_02: we've kind of maybe seen a peak of the rise in the Harris polls,
3:51
SPEAKER_02: you know,
3:51
SPEAKER_02: going through everything,
3:52
SPEAKER_02: and now the dogfight begins,
3:55
SPEAKER_02: right?
3:55
SPEAKER_02: So we kind of saw Trump peak probably, obviously, when he trounced the heck out of Biden, and then
4:01
SPEAKER_02: You know, and then we then he got shot at and almost killed.
4:04
SPEAKER_02: And then because everybody likes to forget that one.
4:07
SPEAKER_02: And then and then moving into the Harris stuff, which really did overtake the news in August.
4:11
SPEAKER_02: And then I think now what we're starting to see is substance meets the road and and
4:18
SPEAKER_02: Tomorrow night is what I'm,
4:20
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:20
SPEAKER_02: Tuesday night we're recording on Monday Reagan promises to get this thing turned
4:23
SPEAKER_02: around and out the door fast.
4:25
SPEAKER_02: So we'll make that we'll make that assumption with our producer but I'm really
4:29
SPEAKER_02: looking forward to the first presidential debate.
4:32
SPEAKER_02: I hope it's not the last because I, I think you need to see two good presidential debates.
4:38
SPEAKER_02: uh, to really get a sense of how people go against each other.
4:42
SPEAKER_02: Um,
4:43
SPEAKER_02: but I really do believe this is kind of a peak and now it's just going to be,
4:47
SPEAKER_02: this is going to be a turnout dog fight to the finish.
4:51
SPEAKER_00: Do you think, uh,
4:53
SPEAKER_00: Former Vice President Dick Cheney's recent endorsement of Harris is going to sway a single voter ever.
5:00
SPEAKER_02: I thought he was dead.
5:05
SPEAKER_01: I was ranting with a friend about this the other day.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: I said, OK, great.
5:09
SPEAKER_01: Two things about that.
5:10
SPEAKER_01: One.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: As a political person who understands how you operate at this at a level like I
5:18
SPEAKER_01: don't know the federal level,
5:19
SPEAKER_01: but I can assume it's similar to the legislative level in the sense that if let's
5:23
SPEAKER_01: say you're a you're Liz Cheney,
5:25
SPEAKER_01: a congresswoman who voted to impeach the president,
5:28
SPEAKER_01: he may have strong feelings in opposition to you.
5:31
SPEAKER_01: Recruit a candidate, you know, a Republican primary challenger that she got.
5:36
SPEAKER_01: She got defeated in the primary.
5:38
SPEAKER_01: They can say, oh, he's a threat to democracy and all this stuff.
5:41
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
5:42
SPEAKER_01: That's sort of the talking points of the kind of folks that they want to buy their
5:45
SPEAKER_01: books and idolize them and get their MSNBC contracts.
5:48
SPEAKER_01: But I honestly think that's just political revenge.
5:51
SPEAKER_01: They're trying to beat him because they because he beat them.
5:54
SPEAKER_01: Right.
5:54
SPEAKER_01: And so it's like that's how I read that.
5:56
SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily read it as, you know, Dick Cheney, which, by the way, I just want to point this out.
6:00
SPEAKER_01: Despite him endorsing Harris, everybody should watch Vice.
6:04
SPEAKER_01: Because it is a movie that was attempting to make Dick Cheney a villain.
6:09
SPEAKER_01: And if you watch that movie and you're not a far left-wing nut, you'll love Dick Cheney even more.
6:16
SPEAKER_01: But also, that gets to my second point, which is...
6:19
SPEAKER_01: While he was vice president and prior to that,
6:22
SPEAKER_01: and even most of the Obama years,
6:24
SPEAKER_01: the left basically thought Dick Cheney was a war criminal.
6:27
SPEAKER_01: And now he's a patriotic hero.
6:30
SPEAKER_01: So that's sort of where I'm like, I'm struggling to see the consistency in the position there.
6:37
SPEAKER_01: They're really heralding us as a incredible bipartisan moment.
6:42
SPEAKER_01: Could be.
6:43
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it'll have a lot of effect because just like Mitt Romney before,
6:47
SPEAKER_01: they trashed him when he was running for president,
6:49
SPEAKER_01: and now they glorify him when he stands up to Trump.
6:51
SPEAKER_01: When really,
6:52
SPEAKER_01: I think it's true that if they hadn't have lied about Romney as much as they did,
6:58
SPEAKER_01: lied about George W.
6:59
SPEAKER_01: Bush,
7:00
SPEAKER_01: lied about Dick Cheney,
7:01
SPEAKER_01: that part of the republican party would still be strong and existing but because
7:05
SPEAKER_01: they vilified them as complete villains the the voters basically said okay you want
7:12
SPEAKER_01: you want somebody who's you know legitimately going to flip tables upside down you
7:16
SPEAKER_01: get donald trump that's kind of how i i mean that's that's how i see that and so
7:20
SPEAKER_01: you could argue democrats are more are more responsible for trump than even the
7:24
SPEAKER_02: republicans are in some ways all right moving on next story
7:28
SPEAKER_00: Okay, since we're talking about elections now, I want to talk about the Measure 118 campaign.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: I just saw on Willamette Week a few days ago that Measure 118 campaign reels in its
7:42
SPEAKER_00: first large contribution,
7:44
SPEAKER_00: and shocker,
7:45
SPEAKER_00: from a San Francisco candidate for mayor,
7:48
$10,000.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
7:53
SPEAKER_02: You know,
7:53
SPEAKER_02: on the 118 stuff,
7:54
SPEAKER_02: and I'm kind of glad you brought this thing up because I don't think they need as
7:59
SPEAKER_02: much money to pass that one versus what the no guys need to defeat it.
8:05
SPEAKER_02: So I think that's the reality is how much the question has to be asked is how much
8:11
SPEAKER_02: money do you need to push out there?
8:14
SPEAKER_02: Because you've got to assume they probably already got out.
8:17
SPEAKER_02: 35 40 yes vote right so they got a um there's a built-in anti-corporation kind of
8:24
SPEAKER_02: mentality kind of out there i don't know what the real number is probably somewhere
8:27
SPEAKER_02: in the 30s i would guess so they're going to vote yes no matter what so i i think
8:31
SPEAKER_02: if if they are able to raise a million dollars or so i mean jeez i feel like
8:37
SPEAKER_02: because i think the no side's only raised about six is that about right i think
8:42
SPEAKER_01: I'll go look while you're talking.
8:44
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think somewhere around there.
8:46
SPEAKER_02: So I think that's a tough, that edge goes to the yes side.
8:53
SPEAKER_02: If that's all that we have is 1 million versus 6 million,
8:56
SPEAKER_02: if we end up,
8:56
SPEAKER_02: I think they need to be more like almost a 12 to 1 ratio versus a 6 to 1 ratio in
9:02
SPEAKER_02: my mind.
9:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I think, I mean, I'd say that's probably Noah's goal.
9:06
SPEAKER_01: They're trying to replicate Noah 97,
9:08
SPEAKER_01: and that was a campaign where they just spent an enormous amount of money to make
9:14
SPEAKER_01: sure that that thing got beat pretty badly.
9:17
SPEAKER_01: But I will say, I agree with you, Brian, they don't need as much to promote the yes side.
9:22
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
9:24
SPEAKER_01: people are going to look for solutions to inflation,
9:28
SPEAKER_01: and I don't think most people have an economics degree.
9:32
SPEAKER_01: They're not going to realize that a $1,600 rebate from higher taxes could impact
9:37
SPEAKER_01: state budgets and have all these negative consequences for businesses.
9:40
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's why the no campaign got on it as soon as that thing got qualified,
9:47
SPEAKER_01: because they know that they've got their work cut out for them to beat it.
9:50
SPEAKER_01: But I think they can.
9:52
SPEAKER_01: because we beat 97.
9:54
SPEAKER_02: I would agree.
9:55
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
9:56
SPEAKER_02: I think there's some opportunity to beat it.
9:57
SPEAKER_02: I,
9:59
SPEAKER_02: Uh,
9:59
SPEAKER_02: but if you get some of those little lefty San Francisco,
10:03
SPEAKER_02: New Yorkers,
10:04
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
10:04
SPEAKER_02: a Bloomberg comes in and drops a,
10:06
SPEAKER_02: a mill on it or a Soros or one of those DSA guys.
10:11
SPEAKER_02: I mean, we could see, you know, some things change.
10:13
SPEAKER_02: I don't think this is really in Bloomberg's wheelhouse,
10:15
SPEAKER_02: but definitely in a Soros wheelhouse,
10:18
SPEAKER_02: uh,
10:18
SPEAKER_02: for sure.
10:19
SPEAKER_02: I think that would be, that would make things very, very difficult for us.
10:23
SPEAKER_01: I would enjoy left-wing Democrats who control Salem getting their budget destroyed
10:30
SPEAKER_01: by further left-wing Democrats from California.
10:35
SPEAKER_02: Do we have confirmation?
10:37
SPEAKER_02: Has Travis Nelson come out against this or is he for it?
10:40
SPEAKER_02: We're still waiting.
10:41
SPEAKER_02: I'm waiting for one of the reporters to do.
10:44
SPEAKER_02: Dirk,
10:44
SPEAKER_02: if you're listening,
10:45
SPEAKER_02: and I know you listen to the podcast because I heard you reference Richard Burke
10:48
SPEAKER_02: interview on OPB's podcast the other day.
10:51
SPEAKER_02: So I think we need a rundown.
10:54
SPEAKER_02: Who's for and who's against Measure 118?
10:56
SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
10:57
SPEAKER_00: I'd love to get,
10:58
SPEAKER_00: you know,
10:58
SPEAKER_00: the Dan Rayfields,
11:00
SPEAKER_00: the people like him who are running for a higher statewide office,
11:03
SPEAKER_00: you know,
11:04
SPEAKER_00: where they're at on this.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: And I think it's easy for them to kind of avoid it.
11:08
SPEAKER_01: I think I remember.
11:10
SPEAKER_01: Hold on.
11:10
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to go to know on Measure 118 website because I heard that they were
11:14
SPEAKER_01: putting together an endorsement list that included a lot of legislators.
11:18
SPEAKER_01: So let's see.
11:20
SPEAKER_01: And it was both parties.
11:21
SPEAKER_01: OK, elected officials.
11:23
SPEAKER_01: So they've got a lot and I'm not quite sure how they're sorted.
11:27
SPEAKER_01: So I'm just going to try to command F and search this.
11:30
SPEAKER_01: We can do we can't can't find Travis Nelson on there.
11:33
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
11:35
SPEAKER_02: We could do a read.
11:36
SPEAKER_02: Let's do that next time we have Ashley on.
11:39
SPEAKER_02: Ashley,
11:39
SPEAKER_02: let's do a report on who's come out or if anybody really if they're because they
11:45
SPEAKER_02: really have to come out if there are no.
11:46
SPEAKER_02: And if there's definitely a Web site being circulated or if anybody comes out as a yes,
11:51
SPEAKER_02: I don't know what groups are coming out as yes.
11:52
SPEAKER_02: But that'd be a good one for this one to keep kind of the story percolating.
11:56
SPEAKER_01: Ryan, who are the swing Democrats that all got really close to being beaten last time?
12:02
SPEAKER_01: uh let's see emerson levy lively levy is a is no on 118 hartman lively is no on 118
12:15
SPEAKER_01: no hartman ruiz is no on 118 where's gorsik no on 118 smart while win isn't on the
12:24
SPEAKER_01: list
12:25
SPEAKER_02: Oh, no wild win, huh?
12:27
SPEAKER_02: That would be interesting.
12:28
SPEAKER_01: Can't find ConFam either.
12:33
SPEAKER_01: HiFam is known on 118, but I can't find ConFam, Jeff Golden.
12:39
SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, this is how you would be able to tell.
12:43
SPEAKER_01: This is a really good indicator of who the real lefties are,
12:45
SPEAKER_01: where even when it's going to blow a giant hole in the state budget,
12:49
SPEAKER_01: they still can't align themselves with business on 118.
12:52
SPEAKER_02: Is Representative Hudson on there?
12:54
SPEAKER_02: I bet he's not.
12:56
SPEAKER_01: hudson's on there wow some of these some of these guys know what's good for them
13:02
SPEAKER_01: some of these guys know what's good for them golden apparently doesn't no i don't
13:07
SPEAKER_02: think i just doesn't care like i don't think i don't even know if you'd respond if
13:11
SPEAKER_02: you went down and i think you'd just be like i think he's not running again that's
13:16
SPEAKER_01: what i think
13:19
SPEAKER_01: So then he doesn't have to care.
13:21
SPEAKER_00: All right, what's next, Ashley?
13:22
SPEAKER_00: Well,
13:22
SPEAKER_00: I was going to say,
13:23
SPEAKER_00: speaking of the state budget,
13:25
SPEAKER_00: you know what won't make a significant difference is no tax on tips.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: So as some of the listeners may already know,
13:34
SPEAKER_00: Senator Dick Anderson of Lincoln City officially announced that he is going to be
13:39
SPEAKER_00: introducing a no tax on tips bill for the 25 session.
13:42
SPEAKER_00: And we've already...
13:47
SPEAKER_00: heard of bipartisan support and it had picked up a lot of news traction in the last couple of weeks.
13:54
SPEAKER_00: So I'm curious your guys' thoughts on the possibility that it will get somewhere as
14:01
SPEAKER_00: a Republican bill in 25.
14:05
SPEAKER_01: I just as with Kamala Harris, it will not be a Republican bill in the legislature.
14:11
SPEAKER_01: It will get my prediction.
14:13
SPEAKER_01: It will be co-opted by Democrats, become a Democrat bill that has high profile Republican sponsors.
14:18
SPEAKER_01: That's what I think will happen, or at least they will attempt.
14:22
SPEAKER_01: You tell me I'm wrong, Brian.
14:23
SPEAKER_02: No, you're I think that.
14:25
SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah, that's right.
14:27
SPEAKER_02: One hundred dollar cash tip or the one hundred dollar cash limit.
14:31
SPEAKER_02: Right.
14:31
SPEAKER_02: When Senator Cano put that in and they threw it away and then they came back with their own one.
14:36
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think that'll happen.
14:38
SPEAKER_02: Hey, listen, here's the thing.
14:39
SPEAKER_02: I mean, even Senator Anderson said this.
14:42
SPEAKER_02: I believe on your voice, your vote.
14:43
SPEAKER_02: He just said, if it's a good idea, who cares if it's a Republican or Democrat?
14:49
SPEAKER_02: I think at the end of the day,
14:50
SPEAKER_02: or whether it was Trump or Harris,
14:52
SPEAKER_02: and I think seeing Harris kind of grab Trump's thing means at the end of the day,
14:57
SPEAKER_02: it's a good bill.
14:58
SPEAKER_02: And what I love about the tip thing is the feedback has been really good for the
15:03
SPEAKER_02: Senator on this one,
15:04
SPEAKER_02: but also from both people on the aisle.
15:08
SPEAKER_02: The reality is a tip really is an income.
15:10
SPEAKER_02: A tip is like a gift.
15:12
SPEAKER_02: It's like saying thank you for doing a great job going above and beyond your
15:17
SPEAKER_02: minimum wage salary that you're probably making serving food,
15:21
SPEAKER_02: but just making my meal just a little bit better,
15:24
SPEAKER_02: making my beers with my buddies just a little bit better.
15:27
SPEAKER_02: And that's what it was before, and it shouldn't be tipped.
15:30
SPEAKER_02: And then this group of people is the people we need
15:33
SPEAKER_02: to support with the inflation and the housing and all the food prices and all the things,
15:37
SPEAKER_02: these are the people that have second jobs or the,
15:40
SPEAKER_02: you know,
15:40
SPEAKER_02: maybe they have young kids and they get to,
15:43
SPEAKER_02: you know,
15:43
SPEAKER_02: do the switcheroo.
15:44
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know, Reagan, you're in a two-income family with you and your wife and your young kids.
15:49
SPEAKER_02: And,
15:49
SPEAKER_02: you know,
15:50
SPEAKER_02: if you guys needed to save a little extra,
15:52
SPEAKER_02: you know,
15:52
SPEAKER_02: she could come home from work and then you have to go be a bartender at the
15:56
SPEAKER_02: You know,
15:56
SPEAKER_02: the bar down there,
15:57
SPEAKER_02: it'd be it'd be nice to because at that point,
16:00
SPEAKER_02: that's probably extra money that you would have to be taxed on.
16:03
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
16:04
SPEAKER_02: With your income.
16:06
SPEAKER_02: And so it does make a difference, man.
16:08
SPEAKER_02: Two hundred bucks a month makes a huge difference to somebody versus paying taxes.
16:12
SPEAKER_01: I'll also tell you why I I just came to this realization as you guys were talking.
16:18
SPEAKER_01: not only is this pro-working class policy,
16:20
SPEAKER_01: which it is,
16:21
SPEAKER_01: and I think that's why it's really popular,
16:23
SPEAKER_01: but I really think the reason...
16:25
SPEAKER_01: When Trump was running in 2016,
16:27
SPEAKER_01: he talked about how the system is rigged for the rich and powerful,
16:30
SPEAKER_01: and the reason he knows that is because he's rich and powerful.
16:32
SPEAKER_01: It was sort of like a really clever lifting himself up of how great he is, but...
16:38
SPEAKER_01: As part of that,
16:39
SPEAKER_01: this is a change to the tax code that wouldn't benefit the rich and powerful whatsoever.
16:46
SPEAKER_01: Bill Gates has zero tip income.
16:50
SPEAKER_01: He gets zero income from tips.
16:52
SPEAKER_01: So this is a change to the tax code that the wealthy can't exploit.
16:56
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's one of the things that actually makes it incredible political rocket fuel and why...
17:01
SPEAKER_01: even though it could cause a loss in some money going into the federal government.
17:05
SPEAKER_01: That's why Democrats hopped on board,
17:07
SPEAKER_01: because not only is it a good policy that a lot of people are going to like,
17:12
SPEAKER_01: it plays into something that,
17:15
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:15
SPEAKER_01: Washington,
17:15
SPEAKER_01: D.C.
17:16
SPEAKER_01: actually helping working people with the tax code instead of constantly screwing them.
17:19
SPEAKER_01: Because a lot of people felt screwed.
17:21
SPEAKER_01: I talked to a lot of people this year and last year who felt like their taxes had
17:24
SPEAKER_01: gone up,
17:25
SPEAKER_01: that they got a rebate and now they didn't get a rebate.
17:28
SPEAKER_01: And so...
17:31
SPEAKER_01: Their view of the government right now is that they're raising taxes on working people,
17:35
SPEAKER_01: and so this really is one of those things that a rich person doesn't benefit from whatsoever.
17:42
SPEAKER_02: I couldn't agree.
17:43
SPEAKER_02: I think you were so right on when Trump came out and just said because they were
17:48
SPEAKER_02: they were kind of attacking him for being this rich and powerful guy.
17:51
SPEAKER_02: And he's like, well, of course, because I'm going to use it's your it's your tax code.
17:57
SPEAKER_02: It's your it's the government's tax code.
17:59
SPEAKER_02: I'm going to use everything I possibly can, including bankruptcy.
18:02
SPEAKER_02: He's used as a tool to just get richer.
18:07
SPEAKER_02: And I don't think people realize that those tools are accessible,
18:11
SPEAKER_02: but unless you have enough people around you,
18:14
SPEAKER_02: that know what you're doing and CPAs and all.
18:16
SPEAKER_02: I mean, I have a CPA, you know, and I feel like, and I'm no rich person, let me tell you.
18:20
SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's, but man, oh man, I couldn't do my taxes without my CPA.
18:25
SPEAKER_02: I'd be paying tons of taxes, you know, it's crazy.
18:30
SPEAKER_02: So this is just a very simple fix to something that isn't gonna make a big deal in
18:35
SPEAKER_02: the grand scheme of a budget anyway.
18:37
SPEAKER_02: So unlike measure 118, which,
18:41
SPEAKER_02: It's easy to tax those corporations and those people that pay jobs.
18:45
SPEAKER_02: And those guys are all paying income taxes on those jobs.
18:48
SPEAKER_02: And this is a gift for somebody that does a job well done.
18:51
SPEAKER_01: All right, Ashley, where are we headed next?
18:54
SPEAKER_00: Yes, so end of August was the quarterly revenue forecast.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: We know that the kicker has grown to almost a billion dollars.
19:08
SPEAKER_00: The trend over the last, you know,
19:11
SPEAKER_00: Several biennium has been that we have more money than we've ever had.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: We're taking in more money than we ever had.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: However, you know, economists are worried about the future.
19:22
SPEAKER_00: And then you throw into the mix that we have a new state economist coming in,
19:29
SPEAKER_00: Carl Riccadonna,
19:30
SPEAKER_00: I believe is how you say his name.
19:33
SPEAKER_00: All of those different pieces.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: What do you guys think the landscape is as of right now?
19:37
SPEAKER_00: What are your thoughts?
19:38
SPEAKER_01: Well, that sounds like a hard question that Brian should answer.
19:41
SPEAKER_02: yeah well one rickadonna it's kind of a cool name i like that uh bringing an
19:49
SPEAKER_02: italian from new york right i mean somebody from wall street hey props to i don't
19:54
SPEAKER_02: you know does the governor hire that person is that a governor hire ashley do you
19:59
SPEAKER_02: know it's a
20:04
SPEAKER_00: Because Das was the one, Das released the press release.
20:09
SPEAKER_02: So, yeah.
20:10
SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
20:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
20:13
SPEAKER_02: Good.
20:13
SPEAKER_02: I mean, on paper, it looks like a pretty cool hire.
20:16
SPEAKER_02: I don't know why somebody would want to leave a Wall Street job as a chief
20:19
SPEAKER_02: economist to come to Oregon to be a chief economist.
20:22
SPEAKER_02: I mean, PERS must be really good.
20:24
SPEAKER_02: But I don't know.
20:25
SPEAKER_02: I look at my purrs and it ain't nothing.
20:27
SPEAKER_02: I'm no tier one purr.
20:28
SPEAKER_02: You know, I got the crappy purrs, which I think is horrible.
20:33
SPEAKER_02: But I think,
20:33
SPEAKER_02: you know,
20:34
SPEAKER_02: it probably came in with the mentality of,
20:36
SPEAKER_02: hey,
20:36
SPEAKER_02: we really want to come hit the street and do things right.
20:40
SPEAKER_02: I would I don't know if we'll see that billion dollars disappear by the March forecast for the kicker.
20:46
SPEAKER_02: But I do think that Oregon is it's good to see that Oregon is on par with our.
20:54
SPEAKER_02: jobs and the economy seems to be fairly stable, which is really good for us going forward.
21:01
SPEAKER_02: But we do generate a ton of revenue.
21:03
SPEAKER_02: I mean, the state of Oregon, because of our income tax, generates a ton of revenue.
21:07
SPEAKER_02: And and I think that knowing that Democrats love to spend money,
21:13
SPEAKER_02: we're going to see some interesting stuff,
21:17
SPEAKER_02: I think,
21:17
SPEAKER_02: in a long session.
21:19
SPEAKER_02: uh republicans need to keep pushing the mantra don't always just spend what you got
21:24
SPEAKER_02: but it's hard to beat that drum in a state that basically spends what it's good
21:30
SPEAKER_02: what it what it has so thank god for the kicker for returning some of that money
21:34
SPEAKER_02: because we can't normally you guys know actually reagan probably knows this way
21:39
SPEAKER_02: more he's a ways and means guy but
21:41
SPEAKER_02: Because we can't borrow money on a state of order.
21:43
SPEAKER_02: We can bond certain things, but we can't really borrow money like the federal government does.
21:49
SPEAKER_01: No, you can't.
21:51
SPEAKER_01: You can't run.
21:51
SPEAKER_01: So the state constitution and pretty much every state constitution is like this.
21:55
SPEAKER_01: You have to balance your budget at the end.
21:58
SPEAKER_01: The budget has to be balanced in anything like an economic downturn.
22:01
SPEAKER_01: I think in 2001,
22:04
SPEAKER_01: after 9-11,
22:05
SPEAKER_01: the legislature had like five or six special sessions to balance the budget.
22:09
SPEAKER_01: That's how bad things got out of whack at that particular time.
22:13
SPEAKER_01: It was similar with the 08 recession, right?
22:16
SPEAKER_01: The housing market crash.
22:18
SPEAKER_01: So your budget has to balance and remain balanced.
22:22
SPEAKER_01: And one of the things about The Economist and the revenue,
22:26
SPEAKER_01: too,
22:26
SPEAKER_01: is that kicker projections,
22:29
SPEAKER_01: they're based on how much money you're coming in.
22:31
SPEAKER_01: If you overshoot your projection,
22:33
SPEAKER_01: in essence,
22:36
SPEAKER_01: to eliminate the kicker,
22:37
SPEAKER_01: you could just project way more income than you're expecting.
22:40
SPEAKER_01: However, that's going to put you in a budget deficit because they like to spend all that money.
22:46
SPEAKER_01: And so then you have to come back and cut later.
22:48
SPEAKER_01: So what's been happening is that the unions have been accusing the state economists
22:52
SPEAKER_01: of undershooting too much to create kickers intentionally.
22:56
SPEAKER_01: They're not doing that.
22:58
SPEAKER_01: That would be like a lawyer intentionally violating the law, which they're not allowed to do, right?
23:04
SPEAKER_01: Economists isn't going to do that.
23:06
SPEAKER_01: They're going to use the best data they have available.
23:08
SPEAKER_01: But projecting out two years is hard.
23:10
SPEAKER_01: And so we've had we had a really big kicker.
23:13
SPEAKER_01: And there are a couple of things that contributed to that that the Democrats still
23:16
SPEAKER_01: haven't figured out is causing problems.
23:18
SPEAKER_01: And they're really self-inflicted wounds, which I'm not going to disclose them now.
23:21
SPEAKER_01: They're going to have to figure out those budgets on their own.
23:25
SPEAKER_01: But but the flip side of this is that and I text I text my dad this.
23:29
SPEAKER_01: I said,
23:30
SPEAKER_01: hey,
23:30
SPEAKER_01: you should probably reach out and say hi to the new state economist,
23:34
SPEAKER_01: because in a couple of months he's going to be cursing your name for having to do
23:38
SPEAKER_01: these dang kicker projections.
23:41
SPEAKER_01: So I hope they do a good job.
23:45
SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily hope for extra kickers,
23:48
SPEAKER_01: but the kickers there and continues to limit the size and scope of government.
23:51
SPEAKER_01: It's saved like 20 billion dollars since it went in the Constitution.
23:56
SPEAKER_01: So our budget would be 20 billion dollars larger right now.
24:00
SPEAKER_01: And Democrats say they'd be able to fix problems with that money.
24:03
SPEAKER_01: I say they'd just be creating more.
24:06
SPEAKER_02: I think,
24:07
SPEAKER_02: well,
24:08
SPEAKER_02: and Reagan,
24:08
SPEAKER_02: if you look at,
24:10
SPEAKER_02: what was it,
24:11
SPEAKER_02: like Minnesota was,
24:13
SPEAKER_02: you know,
24:13
SPEAKER_02: kind of following some of that,
24:14
SPEAKER_02: especially with Tim Walls and all the stuff that happened there.
24:18
SPEAKER_02: And they had a huge budget surplus and they have no kicker, right?
24:22
SPEAKER_02: So they...
24:23
SPEAKER_02: They gave you billions of dollars and they threw it in all these programs because they just spent it.
24:27
SPEAKER_02: Right.
24:27
SPEAKER_02: They just like, oh, now I can stand up that program that I wanted to do ever.
24:31
SPEAKER_02: That's for, you know, children that love wildflowers, you know, project, whatever.
24:36
SPEAKER_02: Right.
24:37
SPEAKER_02: Whatever crazy project that a legislator in Minnesota wants to do.
24:41
SPEAKER_02: And then it led to the largest fraud case ever.
24:47
SPEAKER_02: in america where the the somalis were basically doing this feed feed the children
24:53
SPEAKER_02: where they stole a billion dollars from the state government they're literally just
24:58
SPEAKER_02: making up people's names and just saying they're feeding these people and they were
25:01
SPEAKER_02: just stealing money which they still haven't arrested anybody for but so the the
25:05
SPEAKER_02: budget forces or sorry the kicker forces an economist to
25:12
SPEAKER_02: to probably undershoot the budget, right?
25:14
SPEAKER_02: I mean, because it makes it even worse if they go into a deficit.
25:19
SPEAKER_02: So it's a lot easier to try to do it under which.
25:22
SPEAKER_02: And then occasionally when you have these blips that we had,
25:24
SPEAKER_02: right,
25:25
SPEAKER_02: with the largest kicker before,
25:27
SPEAKER_02: it will create some of those every now and again.
25:31
SPEAKER_02: But at the end of the day,
25:32
SPEAKER_02: you know,
25:32
SPEAKER_02: coming in with close to a billion is probably not a bad projection for two years.
25:36
SPEAKER_02: That's hard to do.
25:38
SPEAKER_01: It really isn't,
25:38
SPEAKER_01: because our whole budget,
25:39
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
25:40
SPEAKER_01: not talking about all funds,
25:41
SPEAKER_01: I think the whole budget for general funds is like $30 billion.
25:45
SPEAKER_01: So to send $1 billion back to taxpayers,
25:49
SPEAKER_01: yeah,
25:49
SPEAKER_01: it's a chunk of change that you could spend it on,
25:51
SPEAKER_01: but there's not a lot you can do with a single...
25:54
SPEAKER_01: billion dollars,
25:55
SPEAKER_01: that's going to have a dramatic impact on people's lives more than them getting
25:59
SPEAKER_01: that money back.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: And I mean,
26:00
SPEAKER_01: back to the tax code thing,
26:01
SPEAKER_01: it'd be nice if we turn it back into a check because people who aren't very good or
26:06
SPEAKER_01: struggle to file their taxes,
26:08
SPEAKER_01: they're more likely to be people,
26:10
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:10
SPEAKER_01: who can't even have,
26:11
SPEAKER_01: don't even have access to funds for a CPA or their kicker is just going to be the
26:15
SPEAKER_01: same as the cost of a CPA.
26:17
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
26:18
SPEAKER_01: Everybody knows how to cash or deposit a check.
26:21
SPEAKER_01: And that's why that's a better system than this silly tax credit garbage.
26:26
SPEAKER_01: And unfortunately,
26:27
SPEAKER_01: we have Republicans to thank for,
26:29
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:29
SPEAKER_01: a few Republicans who deserted us to thank for that change,
26:32
SPEAKER_01: unfortunately.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: So hindsight's 20-20.
26:35
SPEAKER_01: I think they would realize that was a mistake today.
26:39
SPEAKER_00: Well, one of my favorite longtime Capitol reporters, Dick Hughes,
26:46
SPEAKER_00: noted that Rick and Donna, I just love saying his name,
26:51
SPEAKER_00: He had posted on his social media, I've traded the canyons of Wall Street for the Columbia River Gorge.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: New coast, new career opportunity.
27:00
SPEAKER_00: Those who know me well know that I've got some very special connections to the state.
27:05
SPEAKER_00: But beyond that, you know, isn't really willing to answer questions quite yet.
27:10
SPEAKER_00: Granted, his first day, I believe, is today.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: So the next several months will be, I think, really interesting.
27:16
SPEAKER_00: And many of us will be tuning in to how he
27:21
SPEAKER_00: grows into a role.
27:22
SPEAKER_02: We put down any press releases on his first day, we should blow him up.
27:27
SPEAKER_00: We welcome him with open arms, as long as you respect the kicker.
27:32
SPEAKER_02: I think of all of those, you know, the worst loss is with Josh Lerner leaving, I think is really where
27:40
SPEAKER_02: I don't know Rick Adana at all.
27:43
SPEAKER_02: I hopefully get to know him.
27:45
SPEAKER_02: Losing Josh, I've gotten to know Josh over the years.
27:48
SPEAKER_02: I think that he was a good asset to the state of Oregon.
27:52
SPEAKER_02: It does suck to lose people like that.
27:54
SPEAKER_02: That's for sure.
27:55
SPEAKER_01: He's very responsive on Twitter.
27:57
SPEAKER_01: We would ask questions and give him suggestions.
28:00
SPEAKER_01: He'd post data points and stuff like that.
28:01
SPEAKER_01: It was all really good.
28:03
SPEAKER_01: He was one of those fantastic professionals you love working with.
28:10
SPEAKER_00: So September 1st, drugs were recriminalized in the state of Oregon.
28:15
SPEAKER_00: It's official.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: Of course, this is a statewide impact, but many of us are tuning in to what Multnomah County is doing.
28:24
SPEAKER_00: A few headlines over the last few days.
28:30
SPEAKER_00: So number one, it sounds like Portland is set to open a new recovery housing facility in October 2024.
28:36
SPEAKER_00: It is called 4D Recovery.
28:40
SPEAKER_00: a nonprofit that will start accepting people who are in treatment and need a
28:45
SPEAKER_00: support system to live on their own.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: They just had their grand opening on Friday.
28:50
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile,
28:51
SPEAKER_00: Serena Cruz resigns as Multnomah County COO,
28:55
SPEAKER_00: creating a new vacancy in the county's leadership.
28:59
SPEAKER_00: And then another headline,
29:00
SPEAKER_00: I believe a few days ago,
29:02
SPEAKER_00: said Portland business owner says he sees,
29:05
SPEAKER_00: quote,
29:05
SPEAKER_00: no changes after new drug law.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: Multnomah County announced that they've, sounds like they've essentially found help for eight people.
29:16
SPEAKER_00: Of course, this is the new law, but
29:19
SPEAKER_00: The headlines have been interesting.
29:21
SPEAKER_00: Eight people.
29:22
SPEAKER_01: Oh, great.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: I think that's more than we helped under all of Measure 110.
29:27
SPEAKER_00: That's how many people called the hotline.
29:30
SPEAKER_01: That's what I thought I was going to say.
29:32
SPEAKER_01: I think it's too early.
29:33
SPEAKER_01: I would say anybody trying to see if in the first week it's going to work.
29:38
SPEAKER_01: I would, even if I'm going to be a critic of the law, I would wait longer than that.
29:44
SPEAKER_01: I mean, a week's not very long.
29:46
SPEAKER_01: I will say I was doing some Googling because we talked about Clackamas not getting
29:51
SPEAKER_01: funding for a deflection center.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: They have a press release up on the Clackamas website saying they launched a
29:56
SPEAKER_01: deflection program September 1st.
29:58
SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if they got state funding after publicly shaming them.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: I believe they did.
30:03
SPEAKER_01: But which is good.
30:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think that's what should have happened.
30:06
SPEAKER_01: And I think probably the reason my best guess is Clackamas actually wanted to have
30:11
SPEAKER_01: some accountability in their deflection program.
30:13
SPEAKER_01: And the state was trying to shame them out of doing that.
30:16
SPEAKER_01: And so if they stood strong on that, good for them.
30:18
SPEAKER_01: But yeah.
30:19
SPEAKER_01: I think overall, the real problem is we still don't have defense lawyers for these guys.
30:24
SPEAKER_01: And that is going to continue to hamper this effort.
30:27
SPEAKER_01: And it seems like the bill that we passed now almost two years ago has not had an
30:33
SPEAKER_01: impact on the defense crisis.
30:34
SPEAKER_01: I think that's going to be a problem.
30:36
SPEAKER_01: I think that if we don't have jail capacity for the people who actually need to be
30:41
SPEAKER_01: put in jail after they fail their deflections,
30:44
SPEAKER_01: that will be another challenge of this law.
30:46
SPEAKER_01: There needs to be because all Democrats do is try to close prisons and put people back on the streets.
30:52
SPEAKER_01: And so we need to make sure that there's appropriate capacity and funding for that
30:57
SPEAKER_01: so that people can get clean.
31:02
SPEAKER_02: Well, yeah, it's hard to disagree with what you just said, Reagan.
31:05
SPEAKER_02: I think you're hitting the underlying stuff, but I believe this is going to be a very rocky season.
31:12
SPEAKER_02: next six months that we're going to see measure 110 and the you know the
31:18
SPEAKER_02: re-emerging of trying to because some people just you know like the drug user like
31:24
SPEAKER_02: the end user that has a problem living on the streets i don't even know i don't
31:28
SPEAKER_02: even think they know what day it is let alone what date it is and let alone you
31:32
SPEAKER_02: know that oh now all of a sudden i have to go and do a
31:35
SPEAKER_02: a different program.
31:37
SPEAKER_02: And I've heard some other people talking about,
31:38
SPEAKER_02: well,
31:38
SPEAKER_02: what if one County had,
31:40
SPEAKER_02: and you alluded this with Clackamas and this is going to be the interesting thing
31:44
SPEAKER_02: is low Clackamas County.
31:45
SPEAKER_02: Well,
31:45
SPEAKER_02: they,
31:46
SPEAKER_02: they do have a diversion program,
31:47
SPEAKER_02: but,
31:49
SPEAKER_02: uh,
31:49
SPEAKER_02: but what if your moot go,
31:50
SPEAKER_02: go out to my neck of the woods,
31:51
SPEAKER_02: Deschutes County has one,
31:53
SPEAKER_02: but Crook County doesn't.
31:55
SPEAKER_02: So you tell me that drug users are going to choose to go over this county line to that county line.
32:00
SPEAKER_02: I just, I don't know.
32:02
SPEAKER_02: I just think we've seen the beginning of a very rocky road ahead for Oregon,
32:08
SPEAKER_02: which all began when we first passed measure 110 in the first place.
32:12
SPEAKER_02: I'm still standing by the fact that it was the right thing to do was to recriminalize the hard drugs.
32:17
SPEAKER_02: But now we have to do the hard work.
32:22
SPEAKER_02: You know, the heavy lifting.
32:24
SPEAKER_02: I think that I'm still in favor of that San Francisco thing they did.
32:28
SPEAKER_02: That was a call project journey home bus tickets.
32:31
SPEAKER_02: Right.
32:31
SPEAKER_02: Reagan, that's what we it was like.
32:33
SPEAKER_02: You know what?
32:34
SPEAKER_02: If you're not from Oregon and you just came here on a drug tourism thing and now
32:39
SPEAKER_02: you're homeless and strung out on fentanyl.
32:41
SPEAKER_02: Like we find out where you came from and we need to just send you back there.
32:45
SPEAKER_02: And then focus on the pipeline, getting people off the streets.
32:49
SPEAKER_02: And but we can't we got to get the we got to get the drugs.
32:53
SPEAKER_02: We got to get the pipeline figured out.
32:54
SPEAKER_02: If we don't if we don't figure that part out, it doesn't even matter.
32:58
SPEAKER_01: And I think here's the other thing, too.
32:59
SPEAKER_01: If this doesn't work,
33:04
SPEAKER_01: I think what the far left will try to do is claim that recriminalizing doesn't help.
33:10
SPEAKER_01: And I think what is always possible is that we didn't go far enough.
33:14
SPEAKER_01: And so will there actually be the willpower to step it up some more and actually do
33:18
SPEAKER_01: what needs to be done,
33:20
SPEAKER_01: right?
33:20
SPEAKER_01: Because I think the reason it was right for Republicans to back this is it was
33:25
SPEAKER_01: starting you down the correct path
33:28
SPEAKER_01: of going back but we didn't go all the way back we went we did a half step so if it
33:32
SPEAKER_01: starts to work but it doesn't finish the job is there going to be the willpower to
33:36
SPEAKER_01: finish the job and that's where i really wonder if the democrats can even get you
33:41
SPEAKER_01: know enough votes to get that handled or rather to satiate the far left will their
33:47
SPEAKER_01: leadership not allow those votes to cross over with republicans to finish the job
33:52
SPEAKER_01: and that's the thing really is is
33:55
SPEAKER_01: I think that if the leadership on the Democratic side were more hands-off and they
34:00
SPEAKER_01: let members work together on this stuff,
34:03
SPEAKER_01: and we said,
34:03
SPEAKER_01: okay,
34:04
SPEAKER_01: let's sideline both party leaders,
34:07
SPEAKER_01: the Republican and the Democrat,
34:09
SPEAKER_01: and let the members work together on what can get enough votes,
34:12
SPEAKER_01: what can get 31 votes in the House,
34:13
SPEAKER_01: what can get 16 votes in the Senate,
34:15
SPEAKER_01: this would be a very different state.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: We wouldn't have really the big partisan fights anymore.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: You see, now I think I argue that those are driven by Democrats because Republicans.
34:28
SPEAKER_01: Here's the difference.
34:29
SPEAKER_01: Republicans didn't have a voter registration advantage when they were in charge.
34:33
SPEAKER_01: So if 30,
34:34
SPEAKER_01: you know,
34:34
SPEAKER_01: if enough of their members felt like they wanted to back a Democratic proposal,
34:38
SPEAKER_01: that thing was eventually going to hit the floor because those members needed to
34:42
SPEAKER_01: win reelection or they were going to lose.
34:44
SPEAKER_01: And Republicans couldn't fall back on the fact that it was a red state.
34:47
SPEAKER_01: We weren't a red state back then.
34:48
SPEAKER_01: We were still a blue to purple state.
34:51
SPEAKER_01: So they had,
34:51
SPEAKER_01: I think,
34:52
SPEAKER_01: more respect for the bipartisanship than a lot of the Democrat leaders do now
34:55
SPEAKER_01: because they can always fall back on.
34:57
SPEAKER_01: We'll still have 31 and 16 no matter what happens because we're so blue and we've
35:01
SPEAKER_01: gerrymandered the state.
35:04
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
35:07
SPEAKER_00: And I think we also have to I mean, let's be let's be real here.
35:12
SPEAKER_00: I think if we don't stop the supply coming in from the southern border.
35:17
SPEAKER_00: How much of a difference are we really going to see here?
35:19
SPEAKER_01: Look at you, stand on message.
35:22
SPEAKER_00: And I hate to tie it to the border, but I mean, that's just the reality that we face.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's real.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: If the supply isn't going to change, then local law enforcement can do as much as they want.
35:34
SPEAKER_00: And in counties like Marion County,
35:37
SPEAKER_00: who have been working on essentially a deflection program long before the
35:43
SPEAKER_00: legislature came forward with 4002,
35:47
SPEAKER_00: You know,
35:47
SPEAKER_00: they're potentially well-equipped to see some changes,
35:52
SPEAKER_00: but I fear that it's going to be minimal as long as that doesn't,
35:58
SPEAKER_00: we don't see some change on that front.
36:00
SPEAKER_02: Well, so all borders need to be
36:04
SPEAKER_02: And that includes the borders of Oregon as well.
36:07
SPEAKER_02: So because, you know, obviously we can't control what happens in the Mexico border coming into America.
36:14
SPEAKER_02: There's the Canadian borders, horrible.
36:16
SPEAKER_02: Our ports are horrible.
36:17
SPEAKER_02: I mean, like we have got a very porous America.
36:21
SPEAKER_02: But if we have a stronger Oregon.
36:24
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:25
SPEAKER_02: we can get there and we got to give,
36:27
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:27
SPEAKER_02: our law enforcement the tools they need to,
36:30
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:31
SPEAKER_02: stop the drug trafficking,
36:33
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:33
SPEAKER_02: and just say that Oregon is off limits.
36:36
SPEAKER_02: Like, I don't see these people, you know, making a way into Idaho and Montana.
36:41
SPEAKER_02: I'm sure there's drugs there, but not at the level in which it's coming into Oregon.
36:45
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's
36:46
SPEAKER_02: You can't stop at all.
36:48
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
36:48
SPEAKER_02: we can't turn it off like,
36:49
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:50
SPEAKER_02: you turn it off a faucet and then you just stop stop the drug drugs from coming in.
36:54
SPEAKER_02: But you have to try and you have to go somewhere.
36:57
SPEAKER_02: And I think to Reagan's point that he brought up earlier about the having,
37:01
SPEAKER_02: you know,
37:02
SPEAKER_02: attorneys for these people,
37:03
SPEAKER_02: defense attorneys,
37:05
SPEAKER_02: even if we gave the extra billion dollars to defense attorneys,
37:08
SPEAKER_02: I don't even know if they're out there to hire.
37:12
SPEAKER_02: I don't know if they even exist.
37:14
SPEAKER_02: So I know the DAs have the same problem with just having DAs.
37:17
SPEAKER_02: I mean, we have counties in this state, in the state of Oregon, that don't have a DA.
37:24
SPEAKER_02: Like the Justice Department,
37:25
SPEAKER_02: the Federal Justice Department is running cover because they can't get a district
37:30
SPEAKER_02: attorney
37:31
SPEAKER_02: on the ballots even win in like Lake County or something,
37:34
SPEAKER_02: because nobody wants to go live in Lakeview and prosecute cases.
37:38
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, it is an issue.
37:40
SPEAKER_02: And it's one of those things that,
37:42
SPEAKER_02: like in all industries,
37:43
SPEAKER_02: I guess,
37:43
SPEAKER_02: you know,
37:44
SPEAKER_02: there's a shortage of workers,
37:45
SPEAKER_02: but yet our unemployment rate is 4.2%.
37:48
SPEAKER_02: You go figure it out.
37:49
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
37:50
SPEAKER_01: That's a compensation problem, Brian, I will tell you.
37:52
SPEAKER_01: There is no shortage of lawyers in private practice who,
37:56
SPEAKER_01: if compensation were even somewhat competitive,
38:00
SPEAKER_01: would be available to be DAs,
38:02
SPEAKER_01: to be judges.
38:03
SPEAKER_01: I guarantee you that, and defense attorneys too, that is a compensation problem.
38:08
SPEAKER_01: It's just that a lot of that work is harder than private practice.
38:11
SPEAKER_01: It's harder than corporate lawyer work.
38:13
SPEAKER_01: It's harder than trust, wills, and estates, and it doesn't pay as well.
38:17
SPEAKER_01: If it was more competitive on pay, I think there would be plenty of available lawyers for that.
38:20
SPEAKER_01: That's my personal opinion.
38:21
SPEAKER_01: I could be wrong, but that's what I think.
38:24
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you're married to a lawyer.
38:25
SPEAKER_02: You should know.
38:26
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know better.
38:29
SPEAKER_01: She works at Department of Justice and she could be making more in private practice.
38:32
SPEAKER_01: But there are some benefits to Department of Justice.
38:35
SPEAKER_01: Pretty reasonable, normal hours.
38:37
SPEAKER_01: You're not working crazy hours to hit.
38:39
SPEAKER_01: You know, she has billables, but they're reasonable billables that she has to hit.
38:43
SPEAKER_01: And then the benefits are pretty good, you know.
38:46
SPEAKER_01: And so I would say those are the things that way.
38:47
SPEAKER_01: But the pay is not even it's not competitive.
38:50
SPEAKER_01: It really isn't.
38:52
SPEAKER_02: Well, I'm all for paying for people's right to have a public defender.
38:59
SPEAKER_02: I think that that is what sets our system of justice apart.
39:03
SPEAKER_02: better than most other countries that are out there in the world is that you should
39:07
SPEAKER_02: have the right to an attorney.
39:10
SPEAKER_02: And especially in a world in which it's so complicated out there.
39:14
SPEAKER_02: I mean, we were just talking about tax structure earlier and having a CPA, right?
39:18
SPEAKER_02: But now you're talking about taking somebody's freedom away.
39:20
SPEAKER_02: And I think there's a difference there between me having to pay a little more taxes
39:24
SPEAKER_02: because I'm too big of an idiot to figure out the tax code versus me getting locked up.
39:30
SPEAKER_02: So I think there is a difference between the two.
39:32
SPEAKER_02: And I would be in favor of,
39:36
SPEAKER_02: I don't know if I really want them all to be public employees,
39:39
SPEAKER_02: I think was one of the ideas for public defenders.
39:42
SPEAKER_02: I'm not sure that really helps our cause at the end of the day, but you got to go somewhere.
39:48
SPEAKER_02: And if that's what it takes, I guess that's what it takes.
39:51
SPEAKER_01: Well, and don't forget, like you said, though, these prosecutors, too, they represent the people, too.
39:57
SPEAKER_01: When it's the people versus the person who did the crime, right?
40:00
SPEAKER_01: The people also have a right to representation to protect them from crime.
40:05
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, I understand and have harped on this defense crisis before and totally understand it.
40:10
SPEAKER_01: But the fact that we don't competitively pay and fund DA's offices is also a
40:14
SPEAKER_01: problem that needs to be solved.
40:16
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
40:17
SPEAKER_02: Sounds like a bill.
40:19
SPEAKER_01: Well, Ashley, we really thank you for joining us.
40:23
SPEAKER_01: This is where we say goodbye to you, but not forever.
40:26
SPEAKER_01: We're hoping to have you back regularly to take us through the new segments.
40:32
SPEAKER_01: Your transitions were very good, frustratingly good, in fact.
40:35
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to have to get back to work on mine to make them better.
40:38
SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much for joining us.
40:40
SPEAKER_00: Thanks, guys.
40:41
SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Ashley.
40:42
SPEAKER_01: Bye.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: That was fun.
40:47
SPEAKER_02: Well, we'll have to get her to learn how to cut us off a little better.
40:54
SPEAKER_01: We like to talk and we love the news segments.
40:56
SPEAKER_01: That's the thing is,
40:57
SPEAKER_01: Brian,
40:57
SPEAKER_01: I think once we get a sponsor,
40:59
SPEAKER_01: two episodes a week,
41:00
SPEAKER_01: one is news and then one is like a,
41:02
SPEAKER_01: you know,
41:02
SPEAKER_01: a more not timely commentary.
41:04
SPEAKER_01: Honestly,
41:05
SPEAKER_01: I think if you're out there and you want to sponsor a podcast,
41:08
SPEAKER_01: I promise you we,
41:09
SPEAKER_01: our sponsorship isn't that expensive.
41:12
SPEAKER_02: Jeez, Reagan, you don't have to.
41:14
SPEAKER_02: Well, you can sponsor Reagan for cheaper.
41:16
SPEAKER_02: If you want to sponsor me, it's going to cost you some more.
41:19
SPEAKER_02: So that's fair.
41:22
SPEAKER_02: I,
41:23
SPEAKER_02: well,
41:23
SPEAKER_02: I did really,
41:23
SPEAKER_02: you know,
41:24
SPEAKER_02: and you're onto it because I did really enjoy your,
41:27
SPEAKER_02: your podcast with Justin.
41:29
SPEAKER_02: I was able to listen to it this morning.
41:31
SPEAKER_02: And while I was doing the dishes, I told Vicki, I do the dishes last night.
41:36
SPEAKER_02: So she didn't have to do them, but yeah,
41:38
SPEAKER_02: she had to get up and get going early this morning she's been dealing with all the
41:41
SPEAKER_02: wildfire stuff because we're in the epicenter over here in crook county so she's
41:45
SPEAKER_02: been on the phone with fire marshal all the time and county commissioners and stuff
41:49
SPEAKER_02: just trying to make sure they have what they need and just doing what she can to
41:54
SPEAKER_02: run in the middle so she was off doing i think we got to run down to post tonight
41:57
SPEAKER_02: for she wants me to drive her down there it's about a half hour away but they're
42:01
SPEAKER_02: having a big fire meeting down there and
42:03
SPEAKER_02: just a lot going on,
42:04
SPEAKER_02: but I,
42:04
SPEAKER_02: but anyways,
42:06
SPEAKER_02: but that's where getting into those media issues,
42:08
SPEAKER_02: talking about gambling in Oregon.
42:10
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
42:10
SPEAKER_02: Justin Martin,
42:11
SPEAKER_02: he's just got so much knowledge and,
42:13
SPEAKER_02: you know,
42:14
SPEAKER_02: just had that history and that knowledge of what's going on.
42:16
SPEAKER_02: And it really kind of puts stuff into perspective where he can really kind of take an issue,
42:22
SPEAKER_02: not necessarily pull the politics all out of it,
42:24
SPEAKER_02: but to really just talk about where,
42:26
SPEAKER_02: where did the,
42:26
SPEAKER_02: how did the issue start and where do we,
42:28
SPEAKER_02: you know,
42:29
SPEAKER_02: where are we now with it?
42:30
SPEAKER_02: And I think he,
42:31
SPEAKER_02: you guys did a really good job of kind of just discussing that the issue of
42:35
SPEAKER_02: gambling in Oregon.
42:36
SPEAKER_02: And like he, you guys were talking about, like, it's so pervasive now everywhere that, um,
42:41
SPEAKER_02: you know, you can bet on anything.
42:43
SPEAKER_02: You can bet on whether Trump's going to beat Harris.
42:45
SPEAKER_02: You can bet on, you know what I mean?
42:46
SPEAKER_02: You can bet on everything out there.
42:48
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
42:48
SPEAKER_02: the betting markets,
42:49
SPEAKER_02: it's just gotten insane where,
42:52
SPEAKER_02: you know,
42:52
SPEAKER_02: the,
42:52
SPEAKER_02: the betting is,
42:53
SPEAKER_02: it's just,
42:54
SPEAKER_02: it's crazy.
42:56
SPEAKER_01: I appreciate you saying that, Brian.
42:57
SPEAKER_01: And I do think I like the opportunity to dive into those topics,
43:00
SPEAKER_01: which aren't necessarily super timely,
43:03
SPEAKER_01: but there might pop up at some point here in the 2025 session and beyond.
43:09
SPEAKER_01: So hopefully we'll get more opportunities to do that and interview really great people.
43:14
SPEAKER_01: I think we've had some really solid guests.
43:15
SPEAKER_01: And so I think the chances that we have more good guests are very good.
43:19
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
43:20
SPEAKER_02: Well, let's do our next segment, huh, Reagan?
43:22
SPEAKER_02: How about our rants and raves segment?
43:25
SPEAKER_02: I only have one rant that I kind of want to put out there.
43:28
SPEAKER_01: Go for it.
43:29
SPEAKER_02: And then I'll let you do one.
43:31
SPEAKER_02: And then we'll give everybody...
43:33
SPEAKER_02: We'll give you the lay of the land.
43:34
SPEAKER_02: We won't be here very long, much longer, but we'll do this.
43:36
SPEAKER_02: And then we want to do our next episode.
43:39
SPEAKER_02: We're going to get into our election preview.
43:41
SPEAKER_02: We're really going to dive into the statewides and the congressionals in one podcast.
43:47
SPEAKER_02: And then we'll get into the legislative and another podcast.
43:51
SPEAKER_02: And then I don't know how, I don't know if we'll do an election preview on the local stuff, Reagan.
43:56
SPEAKER_02: I really don't have a whole bunch of local election preview stuff, at least from a preview standpoint.
44:03
SPEAKER_02: But so we're hoping to get those back to back and get those out.
44:06
SPEAKER_02: We know those are our most popular podcasts when we talk about these actual elections.
44:13
SPEAKER_02: You and I work on them.
44:14
SPEAKER_02: We know what's going on in them.
44:16
SPEAKER_02: I have a lot of data, a lot of things.
44:19
SPEAKER_02: I'm probably going to have to decide what stuff I actually want to put out there
44:22
SPEAKER_02: and what stuff I I need to not,
44:25
SPEAKER_02: which will be kind of that'll be kind of fun.
44:27
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
44:27
SPEAKER_02: I might say something I don't want.
44:30
SPEAKER_01: I'll try not to accidentally publish all your campaign plans in the show notes here, Brian.
44:36
SPEAKER_01: I'll just make sure I put the right links in there.
44:40
SPEAKER_01: So what's your rant?
44:42
SPEAKER_02: I haven't had a chance to really say it.
44:43
SPEAKER_02: Well,
44:44
SPEAKER_02: I'm going to bring back an oldie but a goodie,
44:45
SPEAKER_02: and I'm going to rant on Kevin Starrett,
44:48
SPEAKER_02: Oregon Firearms Federation.
44:50
SPEAKER_02: So he was on Lars Larson.
44:53
SPEAKER_02: A month ago,
44:54
SPEAKER_02: roughly,
44:55
SPEAKER_02: when they filed,
44:57
SPEAKER_02: they got somebody,
44:58
SPEAKER_02: them and our Oregon and firearms policy,
45:02
SPEAKER_02: they filed a lawsuit against the ghost gun ban that went into effect in Oregon.
45:10
SPEAKER_02: And and then they found somebody in Springfield to file a lawsuit against it.
45:15
SPEAKER_02: And then, of course, he just goes on and just starts ranting about Oregon House Republicans.
45:20
SPEAKER_02: And all of a sudden, the Senate Republicans get a pass.
45:23
SPEAKER_02: I don't know how that works.
45:24
SPEAKER_02: Maybe he just loves my wife enough.
45:26
SPEAKER_02: I mean, she is pretty cute.
45:27
SPEAKER_02: So I guess maybe there's something going on there.
45:30
SPEAKER_02: But I think he just says, well, and so the record is straight on this fact that.
45:37
SPEAKER_02: When the House Republicans committed $25,000,
45:40
SPEAKER_02: it wasn't,
45:41
SPEAKER_02: there's 25 Republicans,
45:42
SPEAKER_02: House Republicans,
45:44
SPEAKER_02: the bill was gonna pass.
45:46
SPEAKER_02: What they wanted to say was, hey,
45:49
SPEAKER_02: There's nothing we can do about this bill at this point.
45:52
SPEAKER_02: We gutted it down to a ghost, basically to match the federal ghost gun ban.
45:57
SPEAKER_02: And this is what the Senate Republicans and the House Republicans did.
46:01
SPEAKER_02: It was enough that the Democrats, they just they wanted anything and everything to do with gun.
46:06
SPEAKER_02: They wanted something had to do with gun control, you know, that was going to have to pass.
46:10
SPEAKER_02: And that's what got through.
46:12
SPEAKER_02: We believe this one will prevail in the courts.
46:15
SPEAKER_02: You know,
46:15
SPEAKER_02: as it's working through the federal courts,
46:17
SPEAKER_02: that's the whole point of mirroring it as the federal ghost gun ban.
46:22
SPEAKER_02: Because then that way, when that's struck down, this goes away.
46:26
SPEAKER_02: And so this lawsuit probably follows other lawsuits.
46:29
SPEAKER_02: I don't even know if it was needed.
46:31
SPEAKER_02: I believe this was just a move by Kevin Starrett to really get his name out there
46:35
SPEAKER_02: and try to go people into giving him more money,
46:38
SPEAKER_02: which isn't going to happen.
46:39
SPEAKER_02: I think if anybody gives Oregon Firearms Federation any money, it's just stupid.
46:45
SPEAKER_02: And they shouldn't be given a dime because it does nothing but go to him and his wife.
46:49
SPEAKER_02: His wife's the treasurer and he's the president of the organization.
46:53
SPEAKER_02: We have no idea where the money goes after that.
46:55
SPEAKER_02: We don't know if they pay any legal fees or anything.
46:59
SPEAKER_02: So regardless of all that, we know they don't help Republicans win.
47:02
SPEAKER_02: All they do is attack Republicans.
47:03
SPEAKER_02: The other thing about this, though, is that the 25 Republicans all said, hey, we'll give $1,000 each.
47:11
SPEAKER_02: Now,
47:14
SPEAKER_02: Vicki gave her,
47:15
SPEAKER_02: she wrote a thousand dollar check and we sent it to Oregon or not Oregon firearms
47:19
SPEAKER_02: policy group down in Las Vegas.
47:22
SPEAKER_02: And she sent it and just said, Hey, I said, I was going to give a thousand bucks.
47:26
SPEAKER_02: That's what she told her caucus members.
47:28
SPEAKER_02: And I think some other ones have sent their checks.
47:30
SPEAKER_02: I think even a representative deal said he was going to send a thousand dollars,
47:33
SPEAKER_02: but he was going to wait till after the campaigns because he's trying to fund
47:36
SPEAKER_02: everything he can to campaigns.
47:38
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's awesome.
47:39
SPEAKER_02: So however, those 25 Republicans, of course,
47:43
SPEAKER_02: I don't think Charlie Conrad will probably send a thousand dollars because he's not coming back.
47:47
SPEAKER_02: So it might be 24 that are,
47:50
SPEAKER_02: that are going to send,
47:51
SPEAKER_02: whether he does or not,
47:51
SPEAKER_02: I don't know,
47:52
SPEAKER_02: regardless,
47:52
SPEAKER_02: but the whole point is as a Kevin stared only did all that.
47:56
SPEAKER_02: So it could go on Lars.
47:57
SPEAKER_02: He could ran about house Republicans and then push his agenda to try to somehow get,
48:04
SPEAKER_02: get people to give him money because he's doing this lawsuit because he's found
48:07
SPEAKER_02: that the only way people now give him money is
48:10
SPEAKER_02: is if he sues something or he's part of a lawsuit, like with Measure 114 or this deal.
48:15
SPEAKER_02: And it's just so shitty and toxic and so backwards towards us trying to move the
48:21
SPEAKER_02: needle forward in Oregon.
48:24
SPEAKER_02: I'm just tired of it.
48:25
SPEAKER_02: I'm just tired of all the BS with it.
48:27
SPEAKER_02: And it's just time for him to go.
48:29
SPEAKER_02: It's time for Lars to stop giving him a voice in these other radio shows that just...
48:36
SPEAKER_02: Lean into the negative so much instead of trying to push the positive and trying to
48:41
SPEAKER_02: push why we can win in Oregon.
48:43
SPEAKER_02: Anyways, I'm done.
48:45
SPEAKER_01: Well, I'd say, um, first I'm looking at Charlie Conrad's or star here real quick.
48:50
SPEAKER_01: He got a contribution, um, last month for $300.
48:54
SPEAKER_01: So not really sure what that's about.
48:56
SPEAKER_01: That's kind of strange.
48:58
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I'm going to look and see if he needs to pay off.
49:00
SPEAKER_01: So, uh, yep.
49:00
SPEAKER_01: He's in some debt there.
49:02
SPEAKER_01: So, uh, about 10 grand.
49:04
SPEAKER_01: So it'll probably be a little bit before he is.
49:08
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's, you know, that, that can be rough.
49:11
SPEAKER_01: So I will say that I think you're right, Brian, and that's just the way it is.
49:18
SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't be surprised if the Firearms Policy Coalition isn't even charging the guy to do this.
49:25
SPEAKER_01: They're funding it out of their own pockets,
49:26
SPEAKER_01: and then Firearms Federation is going to raise money for themselves and never give
49:30
SPEAKER_01: it to the Policy Coalition.
49:31
SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't know.
49:32
SPEAKER_01: It seems very possible.
49:35
SPEAKER_01: And I think the other thing you bring out there –
49:38
SPEAKER_01: A lot of the other outside groups,
49:40
SPEAKER_01: business,
49:42
SPEAKER_01: pro-life,
49:43
SPEAKER_01: they engage with and talk to Republican leadership about their strategies around
49:47
SPEAKER_01: their key issues.
49:49
SPEAKER_01: And I think that if you had a
49:51
SPEAKER_01: leader at Oregon firearms Federation that wanted to engage on those strategies and
49:56
SPEAKER_01: understand that of the three bills that they merged into that one gun bill,
50:01
SPEAKER_01: we killed the two worst ones and position the last one to give Democrats that are
50:06
SPEAKER_01: quote unquote gun bill victory while also knowing that it was likely,
50:11
SPEAKER_01: uh,
50:12
SPEAKER_01: that if the federal courts strike down and if the federal courts don't strike down
50:15
SPEAKER_01: the ghost gun ban,
50:16
SPEAKER_01: then,
50:16
SPEAKER_01: uh,
50:17
SPEAKER_01: It's going to be federal law anyway,
50:19
SPEAKER_01: and the state law doesn't even matter because the federal law is going to supersede it.
50:22
SPEAKER_01: There will be federal law enforcement that will handle that stuff, okay?
50:26
SPEAKER_01: So again,
50:26
SPEAKER_01: you bring out the strategy,
50:28
SPEAKER_01: which I think,
50:28
SPEAKER_01: frankly,
50:29
SPEAKER_01: was an incredibly successful strategy for Republicans to get everything we wanted
50:34
SPEAKER_01: except for the quote-unquote victory of killing the bill number.
50:39
SPEAKER_01: Because again, I mean, you think about the fact that we don't run the state and we were able to get –
50:45
SPEAKER_01: 99% of what we want.
50:46
SPEAKER_01: Most people would consider that a victory.
50:48
SPEAKER_01: There's a few out there, including Kevin Starrett, who can't seem to take a win.
50:53
SPEAKER_02: It's never enough, Reagan.
50:55
SPEAKER_02: I mean, I don't know what they, until what maybe we're in the super duper
51:01
SPEAKER_02: quorum proof super minority where we're just getting killed at every single turn.
51:07
SPEAKER_02: Maybe that's, and that's probably still not enough, right?
51:09
SPEAKER_02: We're still,
51:10
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
51:10
SPEAKER_02: this litmus test that we have to put on Republican legislators by these groups that
51:16
SPEAKER_02: are so narrow minded and so narrow focused that they don't think the big picture
51:22
SPEAKER_02: and the big picture is,
51:24
SPEAKER_02: you know,
51:25
SPEAKER_02: majority.
51:26
SPEAKER_02: At the end of the day, we are in the minority.
51:30
SPEAKER_02: And in Congress,
51:31
SPEAKER_02: and I guarantee Hakeem Jeffries,
51:34
SPEAKER_02: who was in the minority and the Democrat Congress,
51:37
SPEAKER_02: they have one goal.
51:39
SPEAKER_02: It's not to pass some legislation or kill some other.
51:42
SPEAKER_02: It's majority.
51:43
SPEAKER_02: That's their only goal.
51:45
SPEAKER_02: And I think that that's where we have to be focused on.
51:50
SPEAKER_02: And we can win in Oregon,
51:52
SPEAKER_02: but we can't win every time somebody is trying to stick a boat anchor around a
51:57
SPEAKER_02: Republican candidate.
51:58
SPEAKER_02: It's just it's been it's a horrible way.
52:01
SPEAKER_02: It's a horrible strategy.
52:03
SPEAKER_02: And people like Kevin Starrett are just in the way.
52:06
SPEAKER_02: They're in the way of victory.
52:08
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
52:10
SPEAKER_01: So speaking of people in the way of victory, the Oregonian editorial board said,
52:16
SPEAKER_01: I saw their editorial.
52:18
SPEAKER_01: Let's see when this was published, but I think it was so September 4th.
52:22
SPEAKER_01: So last week, the perils of a one party state.
52:26
SPEAKER_01: And I mean,
52:27
SPEAKER_01: on the face of it,
52:27
SPEAKER_01: basically,
52:28
SPEAKER_01: they're talking about this five hundred thousand dollar donation that was.
52:33
SPEAKER_01: illegally and wrongly attributed to a group called prime trust instead of uh the
52:39
SPEAKER_01: the actual person which was basically uh nishad singh who was part of the sbf and
52:45
SPEAKER_01: ftx man that's a lot of acronyms um
52:49
SPEAKER_01: crime ring question mark because here's what I think I think they got the money and
52:54
SPEAKER_01: they're like well we want to spend the half a million but we don't want to report
52:58
SPEAKER_01: it being from a guy who's involved with criminal slash you know activity preying on
53:05
SPEAKER_01: investors so they were like let's just lie about where it came from okay
53:10
SPEAKER_01: Now,
53:12
SPEAKER_01: weirdly,
53:13
SPEAKER_01: the Department of Justice and the secretary of state's office could not find any
53:17
SPEAKER_01: evidence of that.
53:18
SPEAKER_01: They just they they before Rosenblum recused herself.
53:22
SPEAKER_01: She the secretary of state's office cut a deal to slash the fine down from thirty
53:27
SPEAKER_01: five thousand to fifteen thousand and not request a criminal inquiry again.
53:32
SPEAKER_01: The.
53:34
SPEAKER_01: The editorial seems to suggest that the fact that the elections director is Molly Woon,
53:39
SPEAKER_01: who used to be the deputy director of the Democratic Party of Oregon,
53:43
SPEAKER_01: didn't recuse herself and may have contacts at the Democratic Party of Oregon since
53:49
SPEAKER_01: she worked there right before she went to the secretary of state's office.
53:52
SPEAKER_01: Who knows if that's true?
53:53
SPEAKER_01: Seems possible.
53:55
SPEAKER_01: But overall, I just read this and I went, uh-huh.
53:59
SPEAKER_01: So let's go back to the last opportunity that we had to hold the one party state accountable.
54:05
SPEAKER_01: When was there a recent close election where a candidate of a different party being
54:10
SPEAKER_01: elected may have brought some accountability?
54:12
SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's right.
54:14
SPEAKER_01: Christine Drazen ran against Tina Kotek for the governor's race.
54:18
SPEAKER_01: And by this time late in the race,
54:20
SPEAKER_01: when they make these general election endorsements,
54:22
SPEAKER_01: Betsy Johnson was already pretty clearly not going to be competitive.
54:25
SPEAKER_01: Right.
54:26
SPEAKER_01: Early on, it looked possible.
54:27
SPEAKER_01: She faded towards the end.
54:29
SPEAKER_01: I think, you know, we have a two party system right now.
54:31
SPEAKER_01: She wasn't able to break out of that, which is too bad because I really like Senator Betsy Johnson.
54:35
SPEAKER_01: I think she's great.
54:37
SPEAKER_01: They because Tina Kotek had a, quote, stronger command of the issues and was a very effective speaker.
54:45
SPEAKER_01: They picked her over Drazen,
54:46
SPEAKER_01: who is probably one of the best candidates we've run for governor in a long time.
54:50
SPEAKER_01: OK, we've had some losers.
54:53
SPEAKER_01: Bill Sizemore.
54:55
SPEAKER_01: and others who are not really rock-solid, amazing candidates.
54:58
SPEAKER_01: Newt Buehler.
55:00
SPEAKER_01: Whoa!
55:00
SPEAKER_01: I wasn't going to say it, but Brian, you said it.
55:06
SPEAKER_01: We've run some Democrats as Republicans, like Newt Buehler.
55:10
SPEAKER_01: We've run some nice guys, like Bud Pierce.
55:13
SPEAKER_01: We've run some tough guys, like Kevin Mannix.
55:15
SPEAKER_01: We've gone pretty much the whole gamut of what's available in the party.
55:18
SPEAKER_01: And consistently...
55:20
SPEAKER_01: The Democrat editorial board goes,
55:22
SPEAKER_01: well,
55:22
SPEAKER_01: the person with the current part of the party who currently has control and
55:26
SPEAKER_01: therefore a lot more influence and a lot more information about the government is
55:30
SPEAKER_01: more trustworthy to run the government.
55:32
SPEAKER_01: OK, that's a position you can take.
55:34
SPEAKER_01: But I it drives me crazy during the legislative session when they editorialize
55:40
SPEAKER_01: against how far these guys are going,
55:42
SPEAKER_01: when they editorialize in the campaigns about how much crime these guys are doing
55:46
SPEAKER_01: and just letting each other get away with it.
55:49
SPEAKER_01: You have the opportunities many times to endorse Republicans for swing seats in the
55:53
SPEAKER_01: Portland area where they endorse Republicans for statewide office for governor.
55:57
SPEAKER_01: I think the last one that they legitimately endorsed and who actually won was Dennis Richardson.
56:01
SPEAKER_01: And that was against like the literal worst Democratic candidate ever,
56:04
SPEAKER_01: Brad Avakian,
56:05
SPEAKER_01: who many Democrats didn't even like.
56:08
SPEAKER_01: they do not take the opportunities in front of them to put a check on the one party
56:13
SPEAKER_01: state and it may not matter brian as you've pointed out i don't think a lot of
56:17
SPEAKER_01: people vote based on the oregonian editorial endorsements okay but even with their
56:23
SPEAKER_01: limited influence they won't even exercise it to limit the one party state and then
56:26
SPEAKER_01: they're going to editorialize about how bad it is you put
56:30
SPEAKER_01: us here you help put us here i'm sorry that every republican candidate isn't
56:35
SPEAKER_01: exactly what you want which is basically they only endorsed of recently new bueller
56:39
SPEAKER_01: so new bueller is the exact type of republican they want is you don't get to pick
56:45
SPEAKER_01: the perfect almost democrat republican to run every time because that person can't
56:50
SPEAKER_01: get enough republican votes to be competitive brazen was more conservative she was
56:55
SPEAKER_01: she was not an unreasonable candidate but she was where the base was
57:00
SPEAKER_01: And that's why she was competitive in a national environment.
57:02
SPEAKER_01: That's why she was able to raise millions of dollars from out of state,
57:06
SPEAKER_01: which we need to be competitive because Republicans are not well-funded here in the
57:10
SPEAKER_01: state of Oregon without some help,
57:12
SPEAKER_01: right?
57:14
SPEAKER_01: Except for when Mr. Greg Walden gets involved.
57:16
SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Greg.
57:19
SPEAKER_01: So they created this problem, then they're going to editorialize about how bad it is.
57:23
SPEAKER_01: It just makes me absolutely crazy, Brian.
57:25
SPEAKER_01: So there, end rant.
57:28
SPEAKER_02: Well, I agree with what you, everything you said, especially about the Oregonian.
57:32
SPEAKER_02: And I think it's also,
57:34
SPEAKER_02: it goes back to even my rant a little bit about that there,
57:37
SPEAKER_02: you know,
57:38
SPEAKER_02: that we,
57:39
SPEAKER_02: we,
57:40
SPEAKER_02: we can't have perfect Republicans either.
57:42
SPEAKER_02: Right.
57:42
SPEAKER_02: So they,
57:43
SPEAKER_02: that,
57:43
SPEAKER_02: or the Oregonian wants to have that perfect,
57:46
SPEAKER_02: like basically moderate,
57:48
SPEAKER_02: almost Democrat Republican,
57:50
SPEAKER_02: where some people in the ORP and our Republican party wants to have these perfect
57:54
SPEAKER_02: far right, Dennis Lithicum Republicans, right, that are all federalist.
57:58
SPEAKER_02: And, you know, what this it's just doesn't work that way.
58:01
SPEAKER_02: So no, it's met politics is messy.
58:05
SPEAKER_02: But,
58:06
SPEAKER_02: you know,
58:07
SPEAKER_02: I always go to the Democrats,
58:08
SPEAKER_02: you know,
58:09
SPEAKER_02: what,
58:09
SPEAKER_02: what gives them the edge in this state,
58:12
SPEAKER_02: I will say in this state is,
58:14
SPEAKER_02: you know,
58:14
SPEAKER_02: always go back to that,
58:15
SPEAKER_02: because it's the way I try to run my campaigns when I do stuff.
58:19
SPEAKER_02: And I know we've talked about it.
58:20
SPEAKER_02: But
58:21
SPEAKER_02: Vince Lombardi, man, he's got some great quotes and his was like, winning isn't everything.
58:26
SPEAKER_02: It's the only thing.
58:29
SPEAKER_02: And so we have to,
58:30
SPEAKER_02: we have to really,
58:32
SPEAKER_02: like winning is important and all that sort of stuff,
58:34
SPEAKER_02: but you have to,
58:34
SPEAKER_02: we have to focus solely on that answer,
58:38
SPEAKER_02: you know,
58:39
SPEAKER_02: of winning and the Democrats do and they court enough people within
58:42
SPEAKER_02: you know,
58:43
SPEAKER_02: the Oregonian or these other little rags were,
58:45
SPEAKER_02: and the Oregonian,
58:46
SPEAKER_02: you know,
58:46
SPEAKER_02: they put this editorial up because it's like,
58:48
SPEAKER_02: well,
58:48
SPEAKER_02: we got to say something and we can then go back and point to everybody,
58:52
SPEAKER_02: see how we're nonpartisan.
58:53
SPEAKER_02: And we don't, you know, we, we don't really just go one side or the other, but it's,
58:58
SPEAKER_02: hardly ever do they actually ever endorse you know they wouldn't even get was it
59:03
SPEAKER_02: speaking of Dennis Lithgow I don't even think they would actually they wouldn't
59:06
SPEAKER_02: even endorse in the primary they said he was so bad Dennis Lithgow was right I mean
59:12
SPEAKER_02: it was like holy moly like they didn't even give the guy a chance because they just
59:17
SPEAKER_02: they just hate his brand of republican politics
59:20
SPEAKER_02: Which, you know, it's not my brand of Republican politics, but Dennis is a smart guy.
59:25
SPEAKER_02: I like him.
59:25
SPEAKER_02: I think he's very knowledgeable.
59:27
SPEAKER_02: And I think he's got, you know, some decent things he adds to.
59:30
SPEAKER_02: You and I have been in caucus with him.
59:32
SPEAKER_02: He's got some decent points.
59:33
SPEAKER_02: He makes up, he's got some super good history.
59:35
SPEAKER_02: You know,
59:36
SPEAKER_02: Boquist has got incredible knowledge about the treasurers and about everything,
59:41
SPEAKER_02: how state government works and all the things.
59:43
SPEAKER_02: And you got to listen to the people.
59:44
SPEAKER_02: It doesn't mean you have to agree, but man.
59:47
SPEAKER_01: Because their number one issue was, you know, have you do you hate Trump enough?
59:51
SPEAKER_01: Have you have you supported vote by mail enough?
59:53
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
59:54
SPEAKER_01: it's just like it's just I understand where they're coming from,
59:58
SPEAKER_01: but it's just it's not reasonable to say you haven't sent us a perfect Republican.
1:00:02
SPEAKER_01: Therefore, we're forced to endorse the Democrat again.
1:00:05
SPEAKER_01: Like, seriously, they won't even roll the dice on it.
1:00:09
SPEAKER_01: I think that's the silly thing.
1:00:10
SPEAKER_01: They want to say what happens?
1:00:12
SPEAKER_01: And you think like, I mean, they probably point to some of the accountability that that Kotech has done.
1:00:19
SPEAKER_01: But also in the same vein, did we think Drazen wasn't going to do that same accountability?
1:00:24
SPEAKER_01: Was it going to fire the people at OLCC?
1:00:27
SPEAKER_01: It's just like it just makes me crazy.
1:00:29
SPEAKER_02: I'm pretty positive Drazen would have fired about every director in the agencies that are out there.
1:00:37
SPEAKER_02: Hopefully she would have gone all the way down to the studs,
1:00:39
SPEAKER_02: as they say,
1:00:40
SPEAKER_02: and fired everybody,
1:00:42
SPEAKER_02: middle management,
1:00:43
SPEAKER_02: the whole nine,
1:00:44
SPEAKER_02: right?
1:00:44
SPEAKER_02: At this point,
1:00:46
SPEAKER_02: you and I would be agency directors,
1:00:48
SPEAKER_02: you know,
1:00:48
SPEAKER_02: because they'd be middle management persons because they're looking for people to
1:00:52
SPEAKER_02: work in state government.
1:00:53
SPEAKER_02: I would hope.
1:00:54
SPEAKER_02: I mean, that was, and maybe she didn't do that enough.
1:00:57
SPEAKER_02: I think that was also what,
1:00:59
SPEAKER_02: You know,
1:00:59
SPEAKER_02: if I were to be critical of Drazen's campaign,
1:01:01
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
1:01:01
SPEAKER_02: I know she said it,
1:01:02
SPEAKER_02: but it wasn't like,
1:01:04
SPEAKER_02: you know,
1:01:04
SPEAKER_02: I'm going to tear this thing down to the studs and rebuild state government for you,
1:01:08
SPEAKER_02: the voters that put it.
1:01:11
SPEAKER_02: You know,
1:01:11
SPEAKER_02: and I and I think that that Tina has done an OK job,
1:01:15
SPEAKER_02: but she followed one of the worst Democrat governors in the history of the country.
1:01:21
SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, she could have fell over sideways and done a better job than Brown did as governor.
1:01:27
SPEAKER_02: And I think that, you know, Kotech needs to do more.
1:01:30
SPEAKER_02: Just because she's done a few things, it's not enough.
1:01:32
SPEAKER_02: Like, there's a lot more that has to be done in state government.
1:01:36
SPEAKER_02: And I like Tina as a person.
1:01:39
SPEAKER_02: I've known her now for a while, and I think that she's...
1:01:42
SPEAKER_02: I'm trying to be a better governor,
1:01:45
SPEAKER_02: but it's not easy in this state where it's run by these partisan hacks within the,
1:01:50
SPEAKER_02: you know,
1:01:51
SPEAKER_02: the agencies within this control mechanism.
1:01:54
SPEAKER_02: But we elect a governor to go in there and clean house and be the governor for us as the people.
1:02:01
SPEAKER_02: And, you know, and they'll follow you and they'll vote for you.
1:02:05
SPEAKER_02: But man, give us something.
1:02:08
SPEAKER_01: And I think her approvals would rise if that were to happen.
1:02:12
SPEAKER_01: If she was like, you know what?
1:02:13
SPEAKER_01: Enough's enough.
1:02:14
SPEAKER_01: We've cleaned house to the employment department because everybody's employment and
1:02:18
SPEAKER_01: unemployment checks are late.
1:02:21
SPEAKER_01: Because of a technical upgrade.
1:02:24
SPEAKER_01: It makes me crazy.
1:02:26
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
1:02:26
SPEAKER_01: And I know we went through and a lot,
1:02:29
SPEAKER_01: but I think it's a little late now for,
1:02:31
SPEAKER_01: well,
1:02:31
SPEAKER_01: this person's very knowledgeable about the agency and knows how everything works
1:02:35
SPEAKER_01: and is a nice person.
1:02:36
SPEAKER_01: We're beyond that now.
1:02:38
SPEAKER_02: One last thing on Governor Kotick, and I would just give her some free advice.
1:02:41
SPEAKER_02: If I was in her office right now,
1:02:43
SPEAKER_02: and I know they don't give two shits sometimes about things on the east side,
1:02:46
SPEAKER_02: she says she does.
1:02:48
SPEAKER_02: We are burning.
1:02:50
SPEAKER_02: We are under flames and under siege.
1:02:54
SPEAKER_02: Get in your car and get out here.
1:02:57
SPEAKER_02: That's how you change hearts and minds is you get on the ground and you see what the heck is going on.
1:03:03
SPEAKER_02: You don't do a flyby.
1:03:04
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we're going to a fire meeting in post tonight.
1:03:06
SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean, we're going to the things that need to be done.
1:03:09
SPEAKER_02: Vicki's doing what she can.
1:03:10
SPEAKER_02: I know the governor cares, but I'm just saying you can't care from afar.
1:03:16
SPEAKER_01: Well, and I think her 36 stops, those were all perfectly manicured, protected environments.
1:03:22
SPEAKER_01: And they need to put her in environments where she's going to get criticized
1:03:25
SPEAKER_01: because if she doesn't hear the criticism,
1:03:28
SPEAKER_01: it's going to be hard for her to do something about it.
1:03:30
SPEAKER_01: And if she does and if she has an answer for it, she's not going to be able to put it out there.
1:03:34
SPEAKER_01: She doesn't get criticized.
1:03:35
SPEAKER_01: I think that's the hard part.
1:03:37
SPEAKER_01: and uh you know it's it's tough in the world where we are where we want everybody
1:03:40
SPEAKER_01: to get a participation trophy and even i suffer from that at times and i just gotta
1:03:46
SPEAKER_01: like look you know reagan's 29 years old it's time to grow up sometimes 29 yeah oh
1:03:53
SPEAKER_02: big 30 coming around the corner yep i wasn't even married at 29 and you got two
1:04:00
SPEAKER_02: kids and stuff it's crazy
1:04:02
SPEAKER_01: And another one on the way.
1:04:03
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if we put that on the podcast yet, but there's another one coming.
1:04:05
SPEAKER_02: That's right.
1:04:06
SPEAKER_01: Coming in January.
1:04:08
SPEAKER_02: So great.
1:04:09
SPEAKER_01: So happy.
1:04:11
SPEAKER_01: Boy, girl, boy.
1:04:12
SPEAKER_02: Vicky wouldn't let me have a third, right?
1:04:14
SPEAKER_02: And she bailed on me after two.
1:04:16
SPEAKER_02: So Britt, my youngest, who just came in with a headache from school.
1:04:22
SPEAKER_02: He's going to be 17 in October,
1:04:24
SPEAKER_02: but he was,
1:04:26
SPEAKER_02: Vicky was,
1:04:26
SPEAKER_02: I don't want to reveal her age,
1:04:28
SPEAKER_02: but basically she told me that she was,
1:04:30
SPEAKER_02: there was a certain age where she wasn't going to have any more kids.
1:04:32
SPEAKER_02: And I would have had a football team if she would have let me, but we had to stop it too.
1:04:38
SPEAKER_01: It's not easy.
1:04:39
SPEAKER_01: Well, I hope everybody enjoyed this episode.
1:04:43
SPEAKER_01: Please rate us.
1:04:44
SPEAKER_01: And as I've been saying before,
1:04:46
SPEAKER_01: text the episode to a friend that you think doesn't listen to podcasts and would
1:04:50
SPEAKER_01: enjoy it.
1:04:51
SPEAKER_01: I think that'll help us in terms of subscribership more than even sharing on social media.
1:04:55
SPEAKER_01: I'm very anti-social media these days, Brian.
1:04:58
SPEAKER_01: It's good to get information, but I'm really tired of it.
1:05:01
SPEAKER_01: talk to a person tell them on the phone write them a written letter about how great
1:05:06
SPEAKER_01: our podcast is we don't care they can subscribe after they get it in the week uh
1:05:11
SPEAKER_01: thank you everybody for joining and we'll see you soon