Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Iran War Update Day 3 -- 3/2 | Yaron Brook Show

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Iran War Update Day 3 -- 3/2 | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Fundamental principles of freedom, rational, self interest, and individual wise.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: This is show, oh right, everybody, welcome to your On
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Brook Show on this UH Monday, March second. I know
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: it's early in the morning for those of you in
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the United States, and uh probably won't get a large
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: American viewership right now give given the hour it is,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: but it is eight am on the East Coast. But
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I thought i'd give you an update because UH later
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: today I am at Exeter University doing a debate and
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: UH it's it's going to be difficult to do. I
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  Speaker 1: I won't be able to do anything tonight. I'll be
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: on train rides for I'll be on a train for
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: about five hours today. So I thought i'd do one
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  Speaker 1: now and give you an update of what's new overnight,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: and then we'll see what kind of update I can
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  Speaker 1: give you tomorrow, depending on timing and everything. If those
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: of you who are on can just give me a
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: thumbs up in terms of sound and video, because as
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: you know, we've had our challenges here, so it'd be
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: great to just get confirmation that everything is going is
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  Speaker 1: going well this morning. Five Stone seventy three one says
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  Speaker 1: he's watching it midnight Where is it midnight right now?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I don't even know where it's midnight. I'm staying in
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  Speaker 1: the UK, yes, but I'm trying. I'm all over so
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  Speaker 1: tonight I'm in Exeter. Tomorrow I will be in in Durham,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: and on Wednesday we'll be at Oxford, so I'll be traveling.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: I have done this overlay of the chat on the video,
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  Speaker 1: so let me know what you think.
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  Speaker 2: Do you see the overlay?
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  Speaker 1: Is it legible? You know, it's hard for me to
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: see if it's a Roland is in Thailand and it's
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: eight pm in Thailand. Let me know what you think
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: about this chat overlay, if it's something worth continuing to
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: do or not. It's a feature of this new way
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  Speaker 1: I'm streaming that avoids some of the problems that we
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: had earlier on I've cut obs out and I'm just
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: using we stream to stream everything. So let me know
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: if you like this feature or not. A suff in
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  Speaker 1: tel Aviv likes it. He said, wow and beautiful. More
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: opinions would be good, Not that I don't value a stuff,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: but all right, let's see, Uh, what do we wanna?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: What do we want to talk about? Yeah? A few things. Oh,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: we've got Steven who is at five am in Los
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Angeles and is watching Hi Mom, I'm only your run
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  Speaker 1: Brook video. Who's Mom?
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  Speaker 2: Where's Mom?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Where is she?
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: Uh?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: The white lettering could use a darker wall to contrast it.
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  Speaker 1: By Yeah, when we get back to to my regular studio,
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  Speaker 1: I think the wall behind me is darker.
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  Speaker 2: So that that should that should work. Uh, it's not
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  Speaker 2: a twitch.
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  Speaker 1: Stream, this is this is still the same stream.
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  Speaker 2: So anyway, this.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Might be might be a cool new feature that we have.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: If I can figure out how to add a tracker
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  Speaker 1: for the uh super Chat, I I can do that,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: of course. Uh yeah, I mean if I if I
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  Speaker 1: copy into their the the update on the super Chat,
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  Speaker 1: you should be able to see it there. It is,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: so I wonder if if I wonder if you'll see
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  Speaker 1: it in terms of the super Chat. Anyway, put aside
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: the technical aspects of the show, let's talk about what's
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: happened overnight uh in UH in the Middle East. Uh
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: So in number of the developments that I that I
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: talked about yesterday that have come to reality, that is,
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  Speaker 1: the Ranians have now attacked the Saudi oil oil installations. UH.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia shut down its largest refiner UH and UH
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  Speaker 1: and that is a that is a major major hit
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  Speaker 1: both to the both to the Saudis and also to
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  Speaker 1: again world oil markets. And now, of course the oil
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: is stuck because the straits of home Wares as of
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  Speaker 1: now are still blocked UH and the ships are not
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  Speaker 1: as far as I can tell, ships are not traveling
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  Speaker 1: through the straits. I am surprised that the United States
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: it was not better prepared for this and didn't have
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  Speaker 1: a plan for how to deal with this. This is
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  Speaker 1: kind of the obvious last resort that Iran has. It
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  Speaker 1: has no other. Iran can't do anything other than damage
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  Speaker 1: the oil infrastructure of neighboring countries in the Middle East
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  Speaker 1: and disrupt the flow of oil and natural gas through
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  Speaker 1: the Straits of Homos. That's its strategy. That's all it
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  Speaker 1: can do. It can harass Israel, it can harass residential
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  Speaker 1: areas and airports all over the Middle East. It can
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  Speaker 1: disrupt their economies, it can shut down the airports, but
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  Speaker 1: that's trivial. What it's real leverage is by attacking oil
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  Speaker 1: installations and by closing the straits of Homos. And you
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  Speaker 1: know it is doing exactly that, exactly that exactly what
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: we predicted, exactly what I would expect it. They're doing it.
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  Speaker 1: And the question now is does the United States answer,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: did the United States prepare for this scenario? Does it
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  Speaker 1: have a means.
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  Speaker 2: By which to open up the straits?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: And foremost other than negotiation. So that is one. Israel
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: in the United States continued overnight to bomb targets all
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: over Iran, primarily in Tehran, regime installations, missile launchers, ballistic
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: missile depots, but also a lot of a lot of
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: kind of as we said, regime forces that are used
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: to suppress the Iranian people.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: Those were a big part of the targeting.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Israel also announced and in that first day it had
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: indeed killed many of the senior people within Iranian intelligence,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: did attack the headquarters of the Iranian intelligence and destroyed it,
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  Speaker 1: The Islamic Revolutionary God headquarters is destroyed, many many other
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: facilities within Tehran that belonged to the authorities and to
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the armed forces and to the Revolutionary Guard all destroyed.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Somebody says, why it wasn't Israel prepared for it? Israel
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: has no influence, has no capabilities to keep the straits
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  Speaker 1: of Homoes open.
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  Speaker 2: Israel's not going to send.
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  Speaker 1: Its navy all the way to the Persian Gulf. Israel
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  Speaker 1: can demolish the navy, the Iranian navy, and the Iranian
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  Speaker 1: facilities there, but you'd have to do a lot more
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  Speaker 1: than that to keep the straits. And what you need
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: is a navy, and what you need is the capacity to,
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  Speaker 1: you know, put your navy in the Straits of Homos
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  Speaker 1: and prevent Iranian ships and Iranian missiles from coming anywhere
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  Speaker 1: near the tankers. Israel doesn't have those capabilities. It's not
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  Speaker 1: what it's structured for. It's structured for self defense, and
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: it's structured for areal attack on Iran. It's also not
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Israel's problem, it's the world's problem. It's the US problem,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: it's China's problem. My guess is that in the Division
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: of Labor in this particular mission in the United States
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  Speaker 1: took on the responsibility of taking care of the Straits
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  Speaker 1: of Homos. It has many ships in the area, It
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  Speaker 1: has a aircraft carrier in the area, it has submarines,
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  Speaker 1: It has military capabilities that the Israel does not have,
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  Speaker 1: particularly in the water. Now, Israel has a very competent
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: navy and submarines, and I wouldn't be surprised if they
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: are in the area, but it just doesn't have the scale.
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  Speaker 2: Or the scope that the American that the American Navy has.
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  Speaker 1: So this is clearly part of the US responsibility in
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: this mission. Is that, of course also these countries a
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: device aut Arabia, Behrain, kata Quait, even Iraq, all US allies,
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  Speaker 1: you know, less less less so Israeli allies. So we
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: will see. We will see if the United States has
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a plan and if it's implementing that plan. Let's say,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: so Iwan continued to launch ballistic missiles into Israel. Missel
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: dropped in bill Cheva and there were some casualties as
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  Speaker 1: a consequence of that drop. You know, it's also continuing
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  Speaker 1: to attack rapidly US bases and you know, civilian areas
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  Speaker 1: in all of those countries that I mentioned, the golf
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  Speaker 1: countries pissing off the Sunni golf nations. We'll see how
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  Speaker 1: that manifests itself, the fact that they've pissed them off.
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  Speaker 1: The United States announced earlier today that a fourth service
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  Speaker 1: member has passed away, has died from his injuries from
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the same attack that the other three died from. My
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  Speaker 1: guess is that that is in the naval base in
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  Speaker 1: Bahrain took seemingly took the most significant hits. But I
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  Speaker 1: don't know that for a fact that the United States
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: is not said whether that is where these casualties happened.
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  Speaker 1: The United States also announced that three three F fifteens.
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  Speaker 1: Three F fifteens were shot down over Kuwaiti skies yesterday.
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  Speaker 1: Pilots all survived. Three F fifteens were shot down. Now
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  Speaker 1: it turns out they were not shot down by the Iranians.
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  Speaker 1: It turns out they were shot down by friendly fire
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  Speaker 1: by the Americans, by Patriot batteries. So American Patriot missiles
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  Speaker 1: are the only thing they were shoot down in their fifteen.
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  Speaker 1: It turns out Russian, the Russians can't, the Chinese can't.
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  Speaker 1: It looks like or at least their defense systems that
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: they have in the Middle East and in Venezuela. But
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Patriot missiles can more about the superiority of Western Western arms. Luckily,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the two pilots in every fifteen, so the six crew
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  Speaker 1: members all survived. But yeah, three planes went down. Just
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  Speaker 1: to give you a sense of you know, proportion, here
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  Speaker 1: three planes in two days of battle. Israel has lost
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  Speaker 1: exactly one advanced airplane. We're talking about their fifteen sixteen
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  Speaker 1: F thirty five is exactly one airplane to either it's
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  Speaker 1: a combat or ground air defense systems. One since nineteen
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  Speaker 1: seventy three, so post yung Kiper war, where they took
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  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of hits, including the eighty
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  Speaker 1: two war in Lebanon, including all the different missions ZOS
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  Speaker 1: engaged in. They lost one in twenty eighteen above Syria
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  Speaker 1: and F sixteen was hit. Pilots survived, but they have
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  Speaker 1: sixteen was hit. Lots of planes have been lost to accidents,
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  Speaker 1: lots of planes have been lost in training, but in
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  Speaker 1: terms of hostile in spite of all the stuff that
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  Speaker 1: Israeli Air Force has been doing for the last what
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  Speaker 1: is it fifty three years, In fifty three years, just
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  Speaker 1: to give you the competence of the Israeli Air Force
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  Speaker 1: and the incompetence of missile of air defense systems in
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  Speaker 1: Arab states, in fifty three years, Israel has lost one
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  Speaker 1: airplane in twenty eighteen. That is an astounding number. I
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  Speaker 1: don't think. I think on a plane by plane, pilot
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  Speaker 1: by pilot basis, there's no question the Israeli Air Force
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  Speaker 1: is the best in the world by probably a fairly
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: big margin. And partially partially it's just the fact that
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: they are that they have participated in combat, they have experience,
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  Speaker 1: they have combat experience with US. Most other armies, including
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: the United States, have no combat experience. So it's that's
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  Speaker 1: a pretty stunning number. And it's pretty stunning that the
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  Speaker 1: United States lost three airplanes yesterday. Even if it was
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: friendly fire, you think they'd be better coordinated, and you
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: think there fifteen could you know, avoid being shout down.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: The photographs of these f fifteens dropping from the sky
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  Speaker 1: pretty scary stuff. I'm really happy that the pilots got
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: out and they got out safely. Also, last night, Chris
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Ballad decided to join in a big mistake for chrisbald.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I think Chris Ballad launched drones and missiles into Israel yesterday,
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  Speaker 1: very no real damage. What's pretty amazing is for the
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: first time, at least for the first time that's documented
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: that there's some reason to believe this weapon system was
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: used in the past, but this is the first time
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: that it was documented and explicit and admitted and reported
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: on IS used its new laser defense system. Pretty amazing.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: The laser knocked out both drones and missiles out of
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  Speaker 1: the sky. These are short range missiles and drones coming
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: in from Lebanon. These are not ballistic missiles, but these
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: these are lower flying. It's a pretty amazing system because
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: one of the one of the biggest problems with air
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: defense systems against missiles and drones is the cost involved
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: in shooting down a drone. A drone can cost, you know,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: maybe a thirty thousand dollars an expensive drone. The project
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: out there shoot it down is two hundred thousand dollars
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: and maybe even much more than that. Iron dome is
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: a very expensive system in Israel. The laser costs almost nothing.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: It's some electricity, It shoots a beam and it causes
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the drone itself to heat up and explode. You're the
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: same with the missiles. So you can see video online
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: of the missile system at work, and it destroyed all
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: of Risbella's incoming missiles and drones at the same time.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Given that Israel was now Grisbela is now involved, Israel
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: immediately launched operations against Risbella in Lebanon. They are bombing many, many,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: many sites in southern Lebanon, of course, Southern Lebanon is
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the area immediately adjacent to Israel. It's where the highest
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: risk is for Israeli casualties that they attack out of
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: southern Lebanon. Israel is attacking brutally in the area, and
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: you're seeing mass exodus of Lebanese out of the south
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: moving north. But Israel also attacked Beirut. They bombed a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: number of places and a number of underground bunkers and
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: a number of buildings in the area in Beirut where
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Risbela is active.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: I think they are bombing booth as we speak.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: It's hard to tell. We don't know yet about the
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: consequences of that bombing. I mean, I've seen reports that
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the entire leadership of Chrisbella has been wiped out. They're
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: all dead, they're all finished, and that I guess is possible.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. But
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: also fog of war and all of that, and this
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I show this a Twitter, So who knows if that
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: is true? You know, even Israeli media is not. I
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: haven't seen confirmation with Israeli media of that. I'll keep
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I'll keep watching and and letting you know if if
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: we have any update in terms of in terms of
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: who they hits among Chrisbella. We do know that the
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: head of Grisbella Intelligence, a senior, very senior person in Frisbela,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: was killed in the attack yesterday. Who else has been targeted,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Who else has been killed in Chrisbela, We don't know,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: but everybody, Oh no, it wasn't the senior intelligence officer.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: It was the number one person in Isbellah parliamentary. He
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: was in he's a member of parliament, so he's the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: number one political face of Risbela. And this sends a
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: message to everybody's a target, your politicians, your military personnel,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: and your spiritual leaders. They were all targets. We're going
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: to go after all of them. And it looks like
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Israel is indeed going after all of them. And at
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: the same time, the Lebanese government came out with a
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: statement this morning saying, Frisbella, you know, attacking Israel is illegal.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: For Chrisbella to do any armed activities from Lebanon illegal
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: without the authorization of the Lebanese government. There are some
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: people within the Lebanese government want the Lebanese government to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: declare Risbellah terrorist organization. They haven't quite gone there, but
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: there is a chance. What is going on here, give
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: me a minute. Uh m, let's see there's there.
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: Let's take this out. H okay, I think I think
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: I fixed the problem.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: I Uh. Anyway, it is a chance that the Lebanese
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: government will deploy the Lebanese military to actually confront for
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the first time. So that is a possibility in the meantime,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Israel it's not waiting and it seems to be taking
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: care business. Uh, taking care business in in Lebanon. Uh,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: let's see it. There's also a report that says the
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: B two's were used again. Three B two bombers conducted
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: against the Iranian regime overnight after non stuff life in
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: the United States. Second bombing mission again two thousand pound bombs,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: big bombs, and my guess is that they were targeting
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: nuclear facilities and storage facilities for the ballistic missiles. So
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see what else we have here.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Let me just see. There's the B I guess it's
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: b ones. I don't know what the difference is between
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: a B one B Lancer and a B two. I
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: guess the B one is not stealth but I'm just
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: not sure. So maybe somebody who's more of a military
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: exp knows more about this than I do. Right, all
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: us bass all over the world, I guess, are now
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: heightened alert for a both terrorist attacks and other attacks
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: potential attacks x from Uranians. And let's see, the Saudi
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Ministry of Defense announced it and oounced that are five
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: way attacked. Sorry, the five one way attack drums were
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: intercepted and destroyed this morning approaching the Prince Sultan Air
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Force Base. Oh here's here's something important.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: In addition to attacking the all facilities in Saudi Arabia,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: the Uranians have been attacking other facilities of oil production
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: and LNG and as a consequence, cut out energies. Cut
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Our Energy, which is the largest, the largest manufacturer of
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: LNG liquefied national gas in the world, the largest producer
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: of LNG in the world, has ceased operation.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: So they are shutting they are shutting down operation.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: They are sitting this out and waiting to see, you know,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: what evolves. So this is about two twenty percent of
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the world's LNG. This is again going to affect Asia primarily,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: this will effect but potentially Europe as well. This will
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: definitely affect China, Japan, maybe India, but certainly China and Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: other countries around there, but.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: And some in Europe.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Twenty percent of the world production is a lot. Again,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: the United States, my guess is, is going to ramp
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: up production. We have a lot of energy, but we
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: have limited capacity to transport it. But my guess is
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: the United States will ramp up production as this is happening.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: As this is happening, alright, let's see what else is
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: going on. All right, As we mentioned as a consequence
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: of all this not surprising, all prices open this morning
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: significantly up about eight percent, which is not as bad
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: as some people expected. So CRUD is at seventy two
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: to thirty three. I mean people are fearing that it
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: heads towards one hundred. So it's up eight percent. Gold,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: of course is up. It's back to forty fifty four hundred.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Silver is at ninety five dollars. All of those are
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: up at the CUD went up eight percent. You know.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: At the same time, stock futures, there are some p
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: futures are down just under a percent. And now's that
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: future had done one point two percent. So clearly, if
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: stock markets are going to open down, surprisingly you will
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: find us, I think entertaining and interesting. The Israeli stock
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: market opened way up today, So Israeli stocks are doing
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: really well today with the anticipation that this will be
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: a successful operation, that the geopolitical consequence of this are
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: going to be very favorable towards Israel and towards these
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the economy in the future. And so counter to the
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: American stock market, Israeli stock market is way up this morning.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: In addition, the shekel, the Israeli currency, which was expected
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: to take a dive today visa vita dollar, has instead
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: strengthened significantly against the dollars. So this, by every measure,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the markets are telling us that this is really good
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: for Israel. Whether that is true or not, we will see.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Markets are not always right, of course, but that is
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: an interesting sign and encouraging signs, certainly for the Israelis.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: You know, I told you yesterday that the Iranians had
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: attacked Cyprus with drones with missiles. They did that again,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: and they actually hit the British base in Cyprus. The
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: British have evacuated their bases in response. The Greeks a
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: member of NATO. The Greeks have sent two figures with
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the Greek Hellenic Navy as well as they are deploying
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: a number of F sixteen's two cypers in order to
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: help to protect the island against Uranian Uranian attacks. So again,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: what Iran can do is nudge, you, prick you, disturb,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: you create havoc. It can do, and of course it
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: could create real damage to oil, but it can't really
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: do real damage to any of these countries in any
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: substantial or sustained way. They are limited, and of course
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the real achievement will be if the Israelis and Americans
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: can so deplete the ballistic missile and drone capabilities of
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Iran that they stop friving as it is. If you remember,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the threat was on day one of the war, thousands
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: of missiles will go into the air and destroy the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Middle East. So far, the largest barriages of being about
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: thirty missiles at a time. Now that it's still bad,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: and some of these missiles are getting through, as we
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: can see in Israel and certainly in Dubai and in
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and other places. But you haven't seen the thousands,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: and that is possibly because Israel and Americans have destroyed
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: much of their launch capability, but also the supplies that
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: they have, but they still have a lot of There's
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: no question they still have a lot of missiles, they
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: still have a lot of drones. It's not clear yet
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: if Israel in the United States have destroyed their drone
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: making and missile making capabilities, because it's going to be
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: important that they can't start producing drones and missiles to
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: replace the ones they're using. This will end much faster
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: if Israel in the United States can stop the ballistic
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: missiles from flying. Drones I think can be handled. But
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: the ballistic missiles once in all one gets through, and
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: one getting through it can be very devastating, as we
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: saw in bitch emission in Israel yesterday and we so
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: maybe in bil Cheva this morning. One getting through can
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: be devastating. So getting rid of those is going to
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: be is going to be you know, really really really
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: important and significant. All right. So that's where I think
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: the war is in terms of military action throughout.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, we'll get more news.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Later today about casualties in Frisa, Balan casualties of course,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: in among the Iranian Iranian elite Iranian commanders, and it
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: is of course crucial that the Israel and the United
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: States keep killing the people, the people that Iran keeps
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: nominating to lead their forces. I mean here here again,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: is you know, breaking reports indicability of General Bahaman Bermhud,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: recently appointed commander in chief of Ruan's is Stamach Revolutionary
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Guard Corps because the previous guy was killed, was killed
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: and the US is really a strike while inside an
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: underground command center in sun Nahduje alongside other senior military figures.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: If confirmed, this will represent a major disruption to Ruan's
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: military leadership chain, striking not only operational command, but succession
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: planning within IRGC itself. Underground facilities are typically reserved for
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: hardened command and control operations, meaning the strike may have
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: penetrated one of the regime's most secure coordinated helps. This
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: could have been what the B one bombers were doing.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: You know, they have the bigger bombs that can penetrate
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: these kind of underground facilities. That could be what they
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: were doing last night. Bombingness confirmation is still pending and
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: the situation range fluid, So again how to tell and
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of these reports are coming out. It's it's
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: hard to tell. There's news out of Argentina. VI's v Milay.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: He just delivered his State of the Union address. Augustina
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Augustina of the Inman Institute tweeted the whole address to Congress.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I've translated life tweeted the address, so you can you
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: can find that. If you follow Augustina Velgara Sid Augustina
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Viogara Sid on Twitter, you can find the entire address.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to reading it. I haven't had a
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: chance yet to do so. European gas prices have searched
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: fifty after the Katari LNG production has halted again. Europe
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: gets a significant amount of energy from the Katau. My
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: expectation is that the United States is going to ramp
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: up production, but that could take a while. Prices have
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: gone off fifty.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: This is the damage Yon can do.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: And this damage is being done in order to put
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: pressure on Trump to end the war. That is, this
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: pressure is being done so that Europe, the Gulf States,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the Arab States, China, Asian countries start putting pressure on
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: the Americans to end this. Now you know whether whether
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: it'll work, whether the Americans again have a plan visa
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: of the Alder. I don't know, I don't know. Spain
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: continues to not allow the United States to use its
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: infos bases. All right, yep, let us see. I mean
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: you can. You can see pictures of the Straits of
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Homos closed the ships, and you can see ships in
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: a sense of the west northwest of it. You can
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: see ships to the south east of it. But in
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the Straits of Homos there's almost no activity.
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: No activity. Yep, let's see, there's there be ones, okay.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: According to IDF, the air force efforts are struck more
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: than twenty targets belonging to the Ewan's security leadership of
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: one one hundred and fifty ballistic missiles and more than
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: two hundred defense systems. That's what israelas struck twenty security
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: leadership of one hundred and fifty ballistic missiles, more than
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: two hundred defense systems. In total, their forces attack more
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: than six hundred regime terror targets using approximately two five
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: hundred munitions. You know, a big question is going to
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: be how long can.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: They keep this up?
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: And you know, how many how many more munitions can
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: they get? That is the production of munitions fast enough
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: to keep up with what Israel is doing. Supposedly, the
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Justice Minister of Lebanon has ordered security forces to arrest
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the people within physible how responsible for the rocket attack
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: last night towards Israel. This could be a major escalation
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: of protect civil war within within within Lebanon. All right,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: and we will see, we will say it. Combined Forces
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: continues to target Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: stability and pressing protests. The Combined Forces has also conducted
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: cyber attacks as part of its stated objective to topple
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: the regime. The regime the Iranians of continue the efforts.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Multaneans Security Internet Monitoring net Blocks reported on March one
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: that the regime has maintained its nationwide Internet blackout, with
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: the Iranian Internet only operating at one percent connectivity. The
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: regime likely imposed the Internet shutdown dam to prevent coordination.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: So we will see what happens. The US are sunk
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: the Irish Shahad, which is a drone carrier. This is
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: like an IF craft carrier, but an Uranian drone carrier.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Iran's drone carrier has been hit by US and is
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: currently sinking. In the Persian Gulf. That's about an hour ago.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: That's huge because that is a way which Iran can
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: project its drone capability into the sea and attack the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: American fleet using those drones. These are the kind of
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: ships that the United States should be destroying on a
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: mass scale, On a massive scale. Kata interesting left, Kata,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Yuan's really ally right the last two For years now,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: KATA just threatened Iran and Karta's weapons and.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Kata just threatened Iran.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Kata declared a March second that Iran may pay a
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: price for its attacks and the strikes cannot go unanswered.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: The Katan news agency confirmed sixteen injuries from Iranian ordinance,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: zero deaths and limited material damage. Critical threats reported sixty
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: six missiles ballistic missiles launched the Katari territory Dohas Hamad
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: International Airport to shut down Kata Airlines Airways suspend all operation.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Kata has twelve thousand military personnel and thirty six Raphael
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: These are French fighter jets. According to Global fire Power,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Iran has six hundred and ten thousand active military and
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. In
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: a kinetic exchange. KATA does not last a week. That's
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: stupid because that would be just Kata versus Iran. Kata
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: is not alone here, So it's going to be interesting
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: to see if KATA engages those RFL planes in helping,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: you know, destroy ballistic missile depots inside inside Iran.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Kata.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: This is from this article Qata mediator between the United
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: States and Iran for years. The Washington Post reported in
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: February fourth at Oman brokeer talks with Iran's agree with
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Iran's agreement to meet. The following week, Kata hosted parallel
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: diplomatic channels. Iran has now attacked both Oman and Kata.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Iran is destroying its own exit exit ramps. I mean,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: so I think that's where the cind of military operation
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: and stand.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: They continue. There's nothing really new.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: It's about a thousand uh, you know, a thousand so
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: tis a day.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Uh. And the question is are they enough targets for
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: them to go after and will they be able to
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: hoot the leadership and the infrastructure and and the ballistic
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: missiles that that is going to be uh, you know,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: that is going to be the key to ending this thing,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: is is their ability to It's pretty funny. It's a
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: picture of the Babylon b has its cover. Iwan introduces
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: the new Ayatula and and and and guess who that
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: new Areatula is with a picture with a nice beard
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: and a nice hat. The new Attula is Aatula Tucker Calson.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: He looks good with the beard and the hat. So
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: maybe that is it.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: Again.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: More reports that the recently appointed command in chief, the IRGC,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: has been killed. I mean, if if Israel in the
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: United States can continue taking out the entire military leadership
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: of the Islamic Revolutionary God, they will win. Meaning at
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: some point somebody will break either in the Revolutionary Guard
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: in the Iranian military and and and switch sides and
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: go after the Mulas. Now again there there are there
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: are reports that Israel has eliminated eliminated thirty plus senior
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: leaders in Chrisbella last night and in retaliation for the
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Risbella attacks. Exactly who those are and the details I
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: guess we'll get, Uh, we'll get later on. Let's see
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: what else we have here. Uh, the head of Frisball
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Intelligence headquarters was eliminated in a sise striking beaut So
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: we know that about an hour ago, and I don't know,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: there's there's not pictures. Yeah, people eliminated. I mean, if
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: you if you look at pictures out of Tehran, there
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: is there's fire and smoke everywhere. Every direction you look,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: there's some explosion happening. The this is relentless. This is
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: really relentless. I mean they they're really trying to obliterate
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: anything that belongs to the Islamic regime into Hran. It
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: is is being attacked and blown up and destroyed. Let's seeah,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: I mean pictures from Tehran or something or something else. Alright, alright,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: see here's the thing. Uh, all of this is going on,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: and I think it's going to plan you know. Again,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens with the straight hope wars. I
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: think that is the big, big, big question at this point.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: But by the way, just as an aside, I just
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: read this, more than seventies Raeli female pilots and support
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: staff took part in strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: You know, Islamic terrorists were wiped out by Israeli women.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: That's pretty cool. That's pretty cool for those who uh
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: who worry about uh their domestic flight in the United
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: States being piloted by women. They're women flying over right now,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: over the skies of of Tehran, shooting at targets, and
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: the Israeli ethos trust them uh to do that job.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Let's see, it does look like that price spike in
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: natural gas in Europe has gone away, that is, spiked
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: when I fifty came crashing down, crashing down. Okay, so
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe again world markets adapt, new supply routes engaged
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: and things that I was bad. Gas prices of Europe
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: are surged, but then they've they've come down quite a bit.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: So that is that is good? That is good news. Yeah.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I mean almost everybody online, almost everybody online, even people
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: who support this mission, are extremely pessimistic about the ability
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: of this attack to actually result in regime changing ira
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: I mean that is, I see almost nobody who other
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: than Iranians who is actually positive about that possibility. You know,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: most of the people are predicting civil war and violence
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: within Ian They could significantly destabilize the country. Not that
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: I think that's our problem necessarily, but you know, I
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: don't think anybody should care in terms of in terms
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: of at least American Israeli security, but nobody. Nobody is imagining,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: nobody can imagine, nobody is willing to imagine any kind
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: of positive political outcome to this. For the Iranians. This
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: is based on the fact that there is no established
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: opposition in Iran that the son of the Shah will
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: making a lot of noise. It's not clear how popular
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: he actually is in in Iran, right, so it's not
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: it's not clear whether he can actually be the bridging
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: figure to a a democratic a democratic or or liberal
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: democracy an he want. It's not clear. But but the
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: pessimism is widespread, and the voices against this mission are widespread.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: And again, this is the number one danger that this
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: operation faces. It is domestic pressure on Trump. Pressure from
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the right and from the left, and from the center.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: I think less pressure now from the Gulf States who
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: might want revenge for being attacked by the Iranians, but
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: he is going to be under intense pressure to stop
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: this and to negotiate.
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: One of the things that's saving us from Trump saying
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: us some Trump are the Ranians who supposedly are refusing
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: to negotiate, non interested in compromise, and are as as
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: radical as ever. Indeed, for all intentsive purposes leader, the
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: new leader of Iran, a guy named Ali Lali Johnny
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Ali Lellin Johnny is a real radical.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: He has no interest in compromising.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: He is. He is the guy running things right.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: Now in Tehran.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Supposedly, at least as far as we can tell. He
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: was a member of the Revolutionary God in the nineteen
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: eighties and early nineteen nineties. He is, I guess unsurprising.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't be surprising to you, guys. He is. His academic
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: training is in philosophy. His thesis, the thesis he wrote,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: this is the now the leader of you just to
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: just to see the historical connections. I think this is
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: super funny and an objectivist couldn't have made this up
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: any better. And and here reality is just handing it
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: to us on a silver platter. You know, I always
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: tell you, don't don't don't blame Kant for everything that
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: you know. Don't don't jump to Kant. There's there's a
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: lot of intermediary steps. And here you're allowed. Why because
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: according to Wikipedia, Ali Ali whatever his name is, you know,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Ali Lari Larijani is Uh is study philosophy at the
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: University of Tehran, and he wrote a thesis. Right, he's
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: a doctorate. He's got a doctorate in philosophy. This guy's
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: a philosopher and his thesis is on CON's philosophy of mathematics.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: That's Immanoo Khans, you know, the bad guy.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: And it lists under influencers who influenced this guy. It's
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: as Immoo account. So we now have an explicit contient
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: running Iran in the name of Islam. It can't it
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't get any more perfect than that. It It's is
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: a beautiful thing. Now, if Israel in the United States
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: can find a way to kill this guy, they will
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: be doing the world a big, big, big favor. And
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: I think ending this whatever is going on right now
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: would happen a lot faster if that actually actually happens.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: All right, this is just recently, just a few minutes ago,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff gave made
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: an announcement, General dan Kine. We are now roughly fifty
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: seven hours into the operation. In the initial face and
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Comp's focus has been systematic targeting of Iranian command control infrastructure,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: naval forces, ballistic missile sites, and intelligence in infrastructure designed
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: to degrade and confuse them coordinated space and cyber operations
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: have effectively disrupted communication and sensor networks across the area
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: of responsibility, leaving the adversary without the ability to see, coordinate,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: or respond effectively. The combined impact of these swipt, precise
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and overwhelming strikes has resulted in establishment of local air superiority,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: that is, complete dominance of the skies with no threat.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: Okay, so that was the beginning ware of.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: It's just happening right now. It looks like the United
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: States might be sending more assets into the region. All right,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: So again, the biggest set is from everybody who skeptical,
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: everybody who who who is questioning and putting pressure on
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Trump to stop this. And you have to hope that
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Trump will stick with us. Now, what is the chances
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: of a peaceful transition to something better in Iran? I
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: think the higher than people expect. I think there is
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: a portion of the Radian population is that is is willing.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: I think that the religionists in Iran are going to
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: be in stunned paralysis as this regime slowly collapses on itself,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: as it suffers the kind of casualties that are being
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: inflicted on it that it just it just slowly disappears,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: you know. So as that happens, I think that the
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: that the the religious people in any one there's going
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: to be uh, going to be pacified and stunned, and
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: there's going.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: To be an opening.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: There's gonna be uh maybe a small opening, but there
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: will be an opening for you know, uh better people
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: within Iran to rise up and to take control over
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: what's going on. And again, my hope is, my big,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: big hope is that that that will encourage elements within
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: the Iranian military to support them and to help and
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: to secure.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Whatever revolution happens as a consequence.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: That that is.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: That is what I hope.
• 47:39
  Speaker 6: All right, Let's see, was anything else I wanted to
• 47:45
  Speaker 6: look at?
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: All right? Hegseeth is out there defending this war and
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: claiming that the demonstration has an excess strategy and that
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: this is not going to be endless. He says, as
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: far as as time fame, I would never hang it.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: I would never hang a time fame. From our perspective,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: the commander in chief sets the tempo in terms of
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: this fight.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: That's a little scary. He says. The best defense is
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: a good offense. That's true.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: We destroy anything that moves good. And now the question
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: is will the command in chief set the tempo in
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: a way that actually actually results in victory. Hegsas said
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: that the Yuan is not a regime change war, but
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: the regime should to change. The regime that charted chanted
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: death to America and death to Israel was gifted death
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: from America and death from Israel, mainly from Israel, the
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: regime itself that the actual people mainly from Israel. All right, anyway,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: that's from heg Seth's address just now. Yep, I think
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: I think the thing to watch. The thing to watch
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: is are they enough voices in the United States supporting
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: this that will there will that will encourage Trump not
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: to walk away from it.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: That that's going to be key.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I am seeing satellite images coming out of the Bahrain
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: uh Naval Support Headquarters, which is there. It's the headquarters
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: of the US Navy's fifth Fleet uh IN in Bahrain,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: and uh yeah, I mean these ballistic missiles that the
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: Iranians sand are big and the explosive power is amazing,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: is devastating, and uh there's no question You've got a
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: number of buildings here that have just been evascerated, They're gone. UH.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm pretty confident that whatever casualty is the United
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: States four people now have suffered so far, it's from this.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: Because this is pretty devastating. I mean, they it's direct hits.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: It looks like into significant buildings in which the Navy
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: again the Navy's UH headquarters of the fifth Fleet were
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: at several buildings entirely destroyed. UH.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: And this means that.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: A number of missiles and maybe drones hit this UH,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: this this base, so that that is probably the most
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: successful attack the Iranians have engaged in since the beginning
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: of this war or in the Twelve Day War. This
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: is this is more successful than anything the Ranians have
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: done today. UH. Let's see. Okay, this continuation of the
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: of General Dan Crane American B two bombers UH, similar
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: to Operation Midnight Hammer, flew a thirty seven hour round
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: trip so tee from the continent of the United States,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: dropping a precision penetrating munition and Iranian underground facilities across
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: a southern flank and slightly deeper. I'm not sure what
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: that means, but that just confirms what we said earlier
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: about the use of the B two bombers. Let's see, yeah,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, let's also hope very much that they're no
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: more American casualties.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: Not only is any.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Casualty or tragedy, but also the more tragedies you get,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: the more pressure there will be on the United States
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: to end this. It really does look like it is
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: in the United States hitting targets inside Iran police stations.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: So police Station number one thirty seven police Station number one.
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: Oh four have both been destroyed.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: The Islamic Revolutionary Court where they've sentences all the demonstrators
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: to hang, has been destroyed. A special unit facility of
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard LECH I think is the Internal
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Security LEC headquarters of being destroyed. The islam Revolutionary Broadcasting
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Headquarters was destroyed. Islamger Revelutionary Guard Ground Forces operational base
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: was destroyed. So sight after site deep, I mean really
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: inside the city of So these are police stations inside
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: the city are being being inviscerated with a direct message
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: to the Iranians, we're taking out the people who are
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: have oppressed you and the potential to oppress you. At
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: some point it will be your responsibility to go into
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: the streets and and get get rid of them again.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: From General Kine.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: More than one hundred aircraft launch from land and sea
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: fighters tank as the airborne early warning and electronic attack
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: aircraft bombers from the United States and unmamned platforms forming
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: a single synchronized wave. This was a daylight strike based
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: on a trigger event conducted by the Israeli Defense Forces
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: and enabled by US intelligence and Israeli intelligence.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: The first shooters.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: The first shooters at sea were Tomahawk unleashed by the
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: United States Navy. They closed in on the Arab Iranian
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Navy forces and began conducting strikes against the southern flank.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: I mean that southern flank is the area that controls
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: the Straits of Homos, So it does look like definitely
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: the United States has focused on the southern area to
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: destroy as many of the forces that the Uranians have
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: who can control that the Straits of Home woes. On
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: the ground, forces fired precisions, standoff weapons measured, deliberate, precise,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: and lethal. This is a massive, overwhelming attack across all
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: domains of warfare, striking more than a thousand targets in
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: the first twenty four hours. So yeah, the United States
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: is fully engaged is fully in this and causing real
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: danger and real home. All right, all right, let's take
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: your questions. We've got We've got a bunch of I'm curious,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: what do you guys think about the scholling a the
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: scolling chat on the screen on the screen of the
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: of YouTube. So let me know what you think of that.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: I guess it's on It's on the scrolling screen of
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Facebook and and over at over at.
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: Twitter as well.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: All right, let's let's look at your questions and we'll
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: go from there. As I said, I do have to
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: catch a train in a little while to go to
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Exeter to get do a debate, debate and exit. I
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: think it's on tariffs and economic policy and stuff like that.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: All right, Amen, thank you, Amen again, that's amazing. Another
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars. Really really appreciate it, he says, thank
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: you Ron for the daily updates.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: My pleasure. I hope, I hope, I hope, I hope.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: I get to do a daily update on the day
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: when the regime falls, the day when the Iranian people
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: storm whatever's left of the regime and take it over
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: to be replaced by whatever. But anything I think at
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: this point is going to be better than what the
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Islamic regime did and represented. So thank you, Armen, thank
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: you for all the support, James. Do people use religion
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: to justify egoistic policies politically? Politically the people in Israel
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: who advocate for the most sold fish self defense actions
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: are very religious Evangelicals in the US remote self reliance
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: and have contempt for the welfare state. Well, some of
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: them have contempt for the welfare state.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: Many of them do not.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, I mean, it's not exactly egoistic policies because because
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: ultimately the religionists in Israel promoting policies that are pro
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: they collective. It is pure collectivism. Look, you know Nazi
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Germany it was very assertive regarding its you know, security,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: and the religionists in Israel are very assertive about their security.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: The religion gives them a moral backbone. It gives them
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: a certain level of I guess, subjective certainty, a sense
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: of we're right and we're just and we're certain, and
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: it gives them something to fight for. Which is this
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: collectivistic vision of Jews. I mean, there are plenty of
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: secular Jews in Israel who are just as adamant about
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: protecting Israel and just as adamant about taking out the
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: Iranians in terms of foreign policy. So to me, the
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: situation in Israel is a little different than other places. Israel,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: farmit's founding, has faced constant daily, I mean daily, existential threats,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: and that has been made real to the vast majority
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: of the Israeli population. And there for, the vast majority
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: of the Israeli population is very aware of the need
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: to defend themselves. They are choosing life over death in
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: this realm. That's not because they're egoists consistently, but they're
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: selfish enough to value their life in an existential battle.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: And they have come to realize, a majority, overwhelming majority
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: of Israel's come to realize that the Palestinians and the
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Iranians represent an existential threat against Israel hamask allah you want,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: and therefore they support these missions. Now, it's true that
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: those who are religious, some of those who are religious,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: take this kind of to a level of irrational fanaticism,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: because the whole philosophy is based on irrational fanaticism. Right,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: the very religious Israel, the ultra Orthodox, don't care about
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: the state of Visil. They just care about praying to God.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: So they don't even serve in the military, and they
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: don't particularly support as all one with another. Evangelicals in
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: the US, you know, they promote some of them promote
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: self reliance for Agelicas. There's a big group and some
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: of them doing some of them know, some of them
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: are maga and they actually support the welfare state and
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: they don't want the investiation of the welfare state. Some
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: of them are not, but there is a portion of
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: the evangelicals who tend to have a better attitude about
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: self reliance. You know. I don't think it's consistent across
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: the evangelicals, and I don't think that when push comes
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: to shove, when it actually when you're actually talking about
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: doing something about it, they are actually against the welfare state.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: If they had been, then we would have seen politicians
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: act against the welfare state.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Bush, who is.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: An evangelical, Trump who who is sympathetic, who gets a
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: lot of his support from the evangelicals. Neither one of
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: them has done anything, not an ounce to move against
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: the welfare state. So I'm not convinced that that is
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: indeed the case.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: So no, I don't.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: Think religion, you know, can be used to justify egoistic policies.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Even when it's used to justify true policies, it discredits
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: those policies. I think the fact that they're religious not
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: supporting Israeli self defense diminishes the I not the truth
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: of the of the need for self defense, but it
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: diminishes the support for that self defense. Uh, because people
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: don't trust anything that comes from, you know, a religious source, justifiably.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: Thanks James uh Harper Campbell.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Also fifty dollars was the Reagan Thatcher Revolution, first political
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: win of OBJEC, the first political win of objectivism. Uh.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Despite their significant flows, their orientation towards individual responsibility and
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: shrinking the state was able to override the collectivism of
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: the universities. No, I mean, that's a way exaggeration of
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: the impact of Thatcher and Reagan. Certainly Reagan, Reagan didn't
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: shrink the state. There was no shrink each of state.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: The state was much bigger, maybe double when when uh
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: uh I when uh Reagan left office, then when he
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: came in, there was almost no There was no shrinking
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: of the welfare state. Reagan saved so security instead of
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: it taking the opportunity to shrink it. Uh. Uh guvernment
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: spending was about double when he left and when he started.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So yes, there was some deregulation, there was some cutting
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: of taxes, but that's about it. It was nice, it
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: was good, but it was way short of revolutionary, And
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: in that sense, no, it's not. It's not a political
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: win for objectivism. And indeed, I think Iran's criticism of
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Reagan is absolutely right. Reagan. The damage Reagan did by
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: bringing in the religious right, the all majority, into the
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: Republican Party and making it an essential part of the
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: Republican Party probably way out weighs any good he did
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: for the economy, and that is certainly not objectivists, the
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: affiliation with and the coddling of the religious right. So no,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: I don't consider Reagan thatcher at all. Now, the shift
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: to the right in the UK and the US and
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: then across the world, or.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: More correctly not to the right.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: The shift towards free markets, the shift towards capital that
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: happened in a little bit during this period was a
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: consequence I think of Einrand, but not just Iran, Milton,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: Friedman and Hayek and Misis. I think they all had
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: an impact in moving the world closer to closer to
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: closer to free markets. But because it wasn't a philosophical shift,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: because it was just mainly economics and sense of life,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: it didn't last. It lasted twenty years and it was
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: gone right by the late nineties, by the early two thousands,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: it was gone. It was gone.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: But so it was an influence of objectivism.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: But I wouldn't call it a political win. And I
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: don't think objectivests can take credit for that win, and
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think they want to take credit for the results,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: certainly not in the United States, maybe in the UK.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Ran the network reporting on the war is generally the
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: network reporting on the war is generally abysmal. A bunch
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: of experts telling us we can't win. Yes, opinions, but
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: no facts. Pathetic, it's telling, and that the only place
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: I can get actual news is by listening to you. Well,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: thank you, I appreciate that. But yes, I mean, I've
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: said this, I've noticed this since I moved to the US.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: I moved to the US in eighty seven.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: So the first war experience was the first Gulf War.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: And I remember watching TV and all these experts going
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: on TV saying, oh God, the Iraqis have this powerful military.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: They've got all these advanced Russian weapons. This is going
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: to be incredibly costly to Americans. A lot of Americans
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: are going to die. You know, this is horrible. Why
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: we and I was like, they don't know what they're
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: talking about. The United States are going to eviscerate these
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: guys in two days. They don't have a chance in hell.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: The weapons systems are shit, the soldiers un motivated, you
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: can compare.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: To the American military.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: And that was indeed the case, and war after war
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: after war after war after war, I've noticed the same pattern.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: The experts are all ignorant. They overestimate the abilities of
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: the bad guys always and they and they're generally just
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: pessimistic about American capabilities or Israeli capabilities. I mean, think
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: about all the warnings is all God about going into Gaza. Oh,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: thousands of Israeli troops.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: Are going to die. You can't take you can't take Rafa.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: You know, everything's booby trapped, everybody's gonna die, everybody's gonna
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: get killed. None of that happened. I mean, is Israel
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: lost way too many troops, primarily in trying to save
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: the civilian population of Gaza and trying not to be
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: to commit to anything that looks like, you know, so
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: called genocide. It didn't help them. They still get accused
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: of that, but that's where they lost their troops. The
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: bad guys just can't fight. Patent knew this in World
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: War Two. He was convinced he could defeat Hitler in
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: you know, much faster than anybody else. Anyded he could.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: And when when you know, he kept advancing and Eisenhower
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: saw him advancing, he couldn't believe it. He couldn't believe
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: the maps. You know, when when you know, Patent crossed
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: the Rhine. He wasn't supposed to cross the rroon. They
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: were supposed to live. Montgomery crost the Rhine first, but
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: crossed the Rhine. And Eisenhower was like, how did you
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: do that? There was supposed to be impossible. It should
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: have taken you weeks to crust the line. How did
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: you do it in two days? And pattern said, I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: just did you know? So Throughout history, the experts have
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: underestimated the abilities and the firepower of good generals, good equipment,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: good militaries, highly motivated militaries. And we're seeing that in
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: the coverage of this war as we saw it in
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: the coverage.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: Of all the other words.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: In addition to that, there was antagonism towards a war
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: against you one. This is what drove This is why
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: no president until Trump engaged in this war. And the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: obvious questions why is Trump doing it? And I think
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: Trump is the only president, for better and worse, who
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't care what people tell him. He just does what
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: he feels like doing. It's not driven by the kind
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: of moral compass, it's driven live by whim and you know,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: the intelligials all tell him it can be done, you
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: shouldn't do it, it's immoral, it's wrong, don't do it,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: and he.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: Goes, screw you, and he just does it right.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: And that's virtue but also advice depending on the circumstances.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: But that's the reality. He also is not troubled by
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: kind of conventional objections to these kind of things, and
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: he thinks very highly of the American military, which most
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: most people do not. So yes, it's it's war. Reporting
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: generally is pathetic and and I guess the negativity maybe
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: comes from the Vietnam War, where the expectation was that
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: the United States would just walk all over the Vietnamese
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: and destroy them and win their war easily.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: And the United States lost.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: You could argue about white loss, but it lost. And
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: I think that pessimism around the US capabilities to engage
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: in warfare derived from that. And then with you walk,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: even though you walk militarily it was a huge success,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: and Afghanistan militarily was a huge success. They lost the peace,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: they lost the post war effort, you know, the United State,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: and of course the United States fought a war of
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: self sacrifice. It fought a war of placing the civil
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Iraqi civilians and Afghan civilians above the lives of their
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: own soldiers, and in spite of that, they wanted very easily.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: So you know, this is this is the this is
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: the consequence of those wars. For a long time, I
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: said that the pathetic Iraq War and the way it
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: was executed and the consequences of it and the way
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: the US forces engaged would turn America off of war
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: for a long long time.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: And we're seeing the consequence of that.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: Americans don't want war, not because it sometimes isn't the
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: just thing to do, but because they believe they can't
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: win one, because they haven't won one in such a
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: long time. Maybe this war, if Trump goes through with it,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: will represent a shift in the American attitude and we
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: can go back to engaging in war ware wars necessary.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: It's rarely necessary, but when it is, it needs to
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: be engaged with. Thank you and Richard. Do you think
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: events in Iran and Venezuela make it less likely the
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: China text Taiwan. Yes, I've said this many times for
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: basically two reasons. One, they've seen American capabilities, and you know,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: I think the Chinese are smart enough and observant enough
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: to notice that Russian weapons systems a future against the Americans,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: and some of the Chinese weapons systems that we used
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: in Venezuela and potentially also in Iran didn't function. The
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: Americans know how to jam them, they know how to
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: make them ineffective. Uh. And and they have to be
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: watching this and saying, the Americans have capabilities that we
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: don't have, and they have capabilities that maybe we need
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: to think about before we before we enrage them, before
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: we before we get into a conflict with them. So yes,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: I do think that it makes them think twice about Taiwan,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: just watching what American Israel is well with American weapons
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: systems can do and and and the overwhelming dominance. Overwhelming dominance.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could say whatever you want to say
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: about Iran and that the military dominance is just.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: It's unbelievable.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: If Israel over Evan, if wanned Israel plus the United
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: States over evran h. The second thing is that China
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: always counted on the fact that if it got into
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: war with Taiwan and the United States placed a oil
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: embargo and convince the Saudis and the Qataris and all
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: these others not to sell oil to China, they could
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: still get oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Well, if
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: this was successful, two sources of oil for China in
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: case of a conflict, they're gone. Venets oil and Uran
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: will now be able to supply China with oil.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: They will be part of whatever.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: American coalition there is to embargo China, and then they'll
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: be completely dependent on Russian oil. And China does not
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: want to be in that position. So yes, I think
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: for those two reasons, and just because now they have
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: a sense that America will do something. Now Trump could
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: send them the opposite signe No, but it appears right
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: now that America would do something in veriviated Taiwan. They
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: are now going to hesitate before doing it, and possibly
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: we're voting a war with Russia with China as a
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: consequence of these missions.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: Molten Splendor.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: Seeing the photos of huge crowds mourning, how many is scary?
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: What percentage of Iranians do you think are ready to
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: be free and go against the Mullah and God? You know,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think anybody knows. I'm going
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: to guess, but this is a guess. I'm going to
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: guess it's forty percent. I'm also gonna guess at about
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: twenty percent, twenty to thirty percent of Uranians are willing
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: to die for the mulas in God, and then there's
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: twenty thirty percent that are somewhat indifferent, that don't feel
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: passionately about this. Okay, So thirty to fifty percent secular,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: twenty to thirty percent fanatical religious, and twenty to thirty
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: percent could go either way, could go either way, that's
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: my guess. But remember this is a country of ninety
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: million people. So let's say only twenty percent of fanatically religious,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: that's eighteen million people. That's a lot of people. So
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: you can fill up lots of squares with those people.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: But beyond that, but again I'm guessing. I hope I'm
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: wrong and the secular part is bigger. But even if
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: it's not, you know, you know, thirty to fifty percent
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: is a lot of people. And if those people have
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: the courage to actually bring about the world that they
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: want to live under, then the situation in you on
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: will change dramatically, change dramatically. Liam when it comes to
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: fighting for success and happiness in your life, is it
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: not you versus the world, it's you versus you.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Well, it's most of you verses you.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: You have to overcome whatever psychological barriers you have, You
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: have to be motivated, you have to do that. But
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: there is a sense in which the world, particularly in
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: the world we live in today, is holding you back.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: You have to figure out where you want to live
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: because of regulations and taxes and.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: Controls, and you might have to move.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: There might be jobs that are basically close to you
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: because of irrationality in the world. So there is a
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: sense in which the world stands against you in a
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: kind of a mixed economy. And if you live in
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: you on, or if you live in the Middle East.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: If you with someone like that, then the world is
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: against you and you have to get out of there
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: and you have to figure.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: Out how to do that, and that's a struggle.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: So there is an element of the world being against you,
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: but much of the struggle is.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: Is making yourself the best that you can be.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: Hapacampbell were objectives, and I used to think, a few
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: brilliant novels will change the world up root all the
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: entrenched evil rapidly. Well, I don't know who are these
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: objectives you're talking about, but look, a few brilliant novels
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: will change the world. It might not happen quickly, it
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: might not happen in your lifetime, but they're all going
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: to change the world, and it will be a few novels.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: They do it now, it's a few novels and impact
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: a few people that then write other books and do
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: other activities that impact more people, that then do more
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: activities and write more books and do more stuff, and
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: they change more people. But they all have started with
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: a few books. So no, I don't think anybody The
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: Navy tim might have been about the time frame, but
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: not about the fact that these books will change the world,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: Ron says, I thank you for keeping us up to date.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: I'm happy to do it, and thank you for all
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: the support while I am doing it.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: It is greatly valued.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: Let me just take a quick look at the at
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: what's going on in.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: The world, all right, okay, okay.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: An American flag bulk tanker, the empty Senna Stenna Imperative,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: which is one out of ten tankers that are part
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: of the US Navy's Tanker Security Program, tasked with guaranteeing
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: the military access to fuel delivery in global conflict zones
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: and national emergencies, was struck this morning by several projectiles
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: launched by Iran while pier side at the port of Bahrain.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: The attack resulted in several fired fires on board, which
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: have since been extinguished, though the extent of damage to
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: the vessel is still unknown. I mean it, it is
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: surprising that Bahrain, with the with the basically the the
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: command of the Navy's fifth Fleet, was not better protected,
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: and that the that the that the docks they were
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: now better protected, given given how important all this is, alright,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: more and more reports are coming out about who's been assessed,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: who's been killed in Lebanon, among the among the Chris
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: Bala and and the naming names. They're naming names. Okay,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: all right, According to the idea, the war will not
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: end in a few days. US military moves more forces
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: and assets to the region. Uranian regime and military sites
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: are being pounded, and but it's gonna take more than
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: a few days to get them to capitulate. Alright, I mean,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be really really interesting to see, uh what
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: happens in Lebanon this morning. Lebanese government, including most the
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: most senior scheite le done Na, he barely pulled all
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: political cover up for Risbela. Governor authorities and Lebanese army
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: will aid in a bet all actions that restores national
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: sovereignty and estate monopoly on arms.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: So that means that the Lebanese army is gonna go
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: after his Isbela. Now they've said this many times before.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: Let's see if they actually do it. Uh, actually do
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: it this time? Uh. Israel as basically given notice to
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: fifty southern Lebanese villages to evacuate. I wouldn't be surprised
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: if Israeli ground.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: Forces enter into southern Lebanon.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: Right Israel Uh called up a hundred thousand reserve uh
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: reserve off er reserve.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: Uh uh soldiers in anticipation of exactly this.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 5: Alright, alright, who's this been eradicated?
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, head of intelligence is being killed. All right. Back
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: to your questions. Uh, I'll remind you to become uh
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: a monthly supporters of the Ion book show. Incredibly valuable
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: uh and and real help to me. Uh. You can
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: do that on patreon dot com and just put your
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: on book show in and and two dollars up to
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: a thousand dollars. Just become a monthly supporter. It is.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: It is very very helpful. Richard says, I like the
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: new chat laid over the live video. Do you think
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: bitcoin a drop might be caused by Iran regime insiders
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: owning trading crypto to evade sanctions? No, I I I
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: don't think that's. I mean crypto is dropping because it's
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: mean it hasn't dropped that much now. It's you'd think
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: that if bitcoin was being used by the Ranians, they'd
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: be buying right now in order to get out of
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: their currency and into something that they can move around
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: the world. And the fact that bitcoin is not going
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: up as a consequence of the war suggest that bitcoin
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: is is. I don't know what the value bitcoin is
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: exactly right, it's it's it's not a head against anything.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: It's not ahead again geopolitical instability, gold is, but Bitcoin
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: is not. And Bitcoin is sitting at sixty five five hundred.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: Sixty five five hundred over the last month, it's now
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: seventeen percent. Over the last six months, it's down forty
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: one percent over the last year, is down thirty percent.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: Over the last five years, it's up thirty five percent,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: but that's five years. The SMP has done better than
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin over the last five years. Now it depends which
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: date you pick and choose. But now Bitcoin is not
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: doing well, which is surprising. This is a exact kind
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: of circumstances you'd expect be going to do very well
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: in and it's not. Matt I was listening to Alex
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: from ARC UK, who is great on this issue. She
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: said it will be difficult for Iranians to retake the
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: government given they're no clear opposition party that will lead
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: the charge. They have Paul A vis but he doesn't
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: have a coalition pushing to install him. Thoughts, I mean
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: basically agree with that.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: It's going to be hard.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: But you know, I suspect that there are people waiting
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: in the wing for the right opportunity to become or
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: attempt to become leaders of opposition in in Iran, generals
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: in the military who might break away. I suspect that
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: once is on the United States, clear out to the
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: extent that they can the elements of the Islamic Revolutionary
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: God uh and and and make it very, very costly
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: for anybody to belong to the Islamic Revolutionary God, clear
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: out the major players politically with the Islamist regime. I
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: sus suspect that that, you know, a week or two,
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: we will see some opposition figures rising up and trying
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: to coalesce around somebody. Maybe it'll be the Shah, maybe
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: it'll be somebody else. But you know, it's not obvious
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: that you know, we don't know who the players are
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: on the ground, and and there's very little communication. Internet
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: is down. But but so I don't think we're we
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: know who all the players are going to be, and
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: who all the players are for that matter. We don't
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: know right now what is going on with with the
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: various people like the colds, who have who have arms,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: and who have med military and are they engaged? Are
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: they are they fighting off? Are they are they trying
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: to kick out elements of the Iranian military from from
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: their territories. There's a lot going on in Iran right
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: now on the ground that we just are not aware of. Also,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: suspect them of SAD has contacts in Iran. I mean,
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: they clearly got spies, but they might have already established
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: contacts with sudden potential opposition figures. A certain people in
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: the military they have being more moderate candidates for presidency
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: that the Iranian government shot down and said, you can't
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: run for president. We won't allow you. You're too much
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: of them, a moderate. Maybe some of those people will
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: come around and gone at public support. So I think
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: it's too soon to just write off the opposition. It's true,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: we don't know, it's true. It's going to be hard,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: But I don't think we can say that it just
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: won't happen or it can't happen. I'm still hopeful not
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: to every algorithm. Is Trump's presidency one giant temper trantrum?
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: Well, no, I think it's a.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: It's a it's it's it's series of many, many temper tantrums.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: Some of them productive and some of them not productive.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: Most of them not productive and a few productive Like
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: this one, John, what's a good way to trade? What's
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: a good way to trade for the optimistic outcome a
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: regime change and a relatively much.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: Better successor establishment.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: What assets will perform well and this happens well, If
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: that happens, I would short oil, I would short gold,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: and I would you know, if the stock market goes
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: down a lot, I would buy stocks or buy options
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: in stocks.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: So stock market will.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: Rebound dramatically, Oil will drop significantly below sixty potentially, and
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: I think gold will drop. So that's one way to
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: play this. You could also short natural gas futures right
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: because it could drop a lot. You know, shorting aware
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: right because if things go up you can lose a
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: lot of money in the meantime. But that would be
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: the way to play. You could buy put options that
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: which are safer. That would be the way to play
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: a victory here. It's you know, also, I would say
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: buy Israeli stocks, but they went up so much today
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: that I'm not sure it's worth buying them.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's already priced in.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a there's clearly the Israeli stock market
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: are saying this is going to be victory and Israel
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be safer and everything's gonna be good.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: And the American stock market is saying this is a disaster.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: This is really really bad. Nothing good will come of it.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: So you know, you could play those two off of
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: each other by uh you could. You could even short
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: one and buy the other. They can't both be right,
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: So one is right and one is wrong. Then you
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: have to decide which one is which. Let's see what
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: futures are doing right now. Yeah, stock markets down one
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: point two, one point five percent something like that. Small
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: stocks even more yet one point five So that's the futures.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: The market hasn't opened yet, of course that happens. What
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: in three minutes, Yeah, in three minutes, the market will
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: open and we'll see what the stocks do. If there
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: is no foreign debt and currency not backed by gold,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: why can't the Fed print unlimited money and give it
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: to the banks endlessly? How does the money circulate between
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: Fed Treasury and banks? Oh well, I mean that's a
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: big question that we would have to do a whole
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: show about. But the reason they can't just print unlimited
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: money and give it to the banks.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: Is that that creates inflation.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: Prices go up to reflect the increased amount of money,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: So the money is in the banks. In other words,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: the money is given to consumers. Consumers then go out
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: and spend it, and that drives up prices, and it
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: drives up asset prices, and it drives up acid values.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: So everything goes up. And so the pinning of money
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: negates whatever benefit it might have had. But in terms
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: of the whole way it circulates and all of that,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: that is a big question that we would need a
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: lot more time for Roman cut Oar energy is just
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: suspended operation. I said that earlier in the show. Is
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: this cuttart trying to pressure the world economy to make
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: Trump stop or rational decision? It's a rational decision. They
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: can't ship anything out right. The LNG terminal is on
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: the Gulf, The straits of Homoes are blocked. Why would
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: they continue to produce LNG if they can't ship the
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: LERG anyway? And storing the LNG is dangerous because these
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: missiles are falling and the LNG is very explosive. So no,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: it's a completely rational decision. Has nothing to do with
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: pressuring the global economy. It has everything to do with
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: the Straits of Homos and until the United States opens
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: those straits or gets them opened in some way, I
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if a lot of countries stop producing
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: oil and natural gas and weight it out. All right,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: This is the final question I have right now. Greg
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: says on the on screen display should allow the chat
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: to be seen during replay, fluting comments that might otherwise
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: being hidden by the host blocking a user. I think
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: it's going to allow it to be seen during replay.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: We'll see. I don't know how this works.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: We'll see if it works about comments that might otherwise
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: have been hidden by host. No, you won't be able
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: to see those. Those are hidden. They're gone and there's
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: no reason to have them.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: Let me quickly scan to see if there's anything exciting.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: As I said, Ali Lai Johnny, who is the number
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: one ahead of whatever the Rnian government right now, is
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: a con scholar in mono con scholar. It doesn't get
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: any better than this. Hopefully they kill him soon. Oh
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: that's interesting, I you know it interesting if this is true.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: There's a famous prison in Tehran, UH called Ma Malwan
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: Uh where political prisoners are being held political prisoners are
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: held in this it's a it's a it's a horrible,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: horrible place. Uh. Anyway, Supposedly, according to Iranian opposition sources, UH,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: Israeli a newer strikes on the military and intelligence sites
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: in Mawan have basically allowed all the prisoners to escape.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: Uh to escape.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: Now. Uh, this is from a human rights organization called
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: uh heng Uh. And it's a developing story. You know,
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: who knows if this is true. But that is amazing.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: If that is true, Good for them, Uh, good for
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: them for doing that. Let's see. Uh yeah, I mean
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: it was well increasingly was it a shooting gallery? There's
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: there's no way to stop these Raelis and Americans from
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: shooting anything they want to shoot. Uh. And and now
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: the question is how quickly can the United States and
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: is all completely degrade Iran's defense capabilities? Okay, Islamic Revolutionary
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: Guard uh uh circulate information overnight UH that said that
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: they were canceling h homonies homonies fatua, banning nuclear weapons.
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: This is an attempt to claim that they're developing nuclear
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: weapons as we speak. This is being interpreted as a
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: final act of blackmail. Uh. The promoted the coalition to
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: prepare strikes on underground facilities in four Door. Uh these
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: are you know, they can't do anything, but hopefully this
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: will encourage the Americans to go all in on the
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: new clear facilities and destroy every last one of them there.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: Supposedly there's a real conflict developing right now, which is
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: exactly what I expected and what I hope would happen
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: and what I think is going to save this an
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: unfolding conflict between the regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: Now it's hard to verify this, it's hard to know
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: exactly what's going on, but supposedly there is a conflict,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: which is not surprising, right That is how this ends.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: The Uranian military takes control. Supposedly, there have been local
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: clashes into Huan between the army and the IRGC Artes,
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: which is the army units reportedly refused to transfer defense
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: reserves to the IRGC and decline to participate in suppressing
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: street protests. There are reports that artis high Man is
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: distancing itself from what it calls suicidal Islamic Revolutionary Guard
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: orders to attack tankers in US bases. The Army is
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: positioning itself as an institution of national salvation for a
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: post revolutionary period. Yeah. According to the Institute for the
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: Study of War, Israel strikes and IRGC headquarters have significantly
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: undermined the God's ability to control the capital. Notice that
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: Israel is not attacking as much, at least Uranian military facilities.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: It's focused primarily on the Islamic Revolutionary God. Their protests
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: in Tehuan is the fund and she was against the regime.
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: So in spite of all the bombing and everything that's
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: going on, people in the street protesting. There have been
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: mass transfers of political prisoners and as I said, maybe
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: some of them been refreed. With an attack on the
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: big prison Palavar has the Shah, it's called insecurity forces
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: to side with the people, and you know, we'll.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: See what happens.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: I mean. The reality is that the biggest player here
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: who could kind of put pressure on the Aranians to
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: open up the straits of homos is China, and supposedly
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: Beijing is putting a lot of pressure on the Ranians
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: to open up the streets of homos. There's a radical
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: faction of Islamic Revolutionary God that's preparing for escalation potentially
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: going nuclear, and whatever transition council there is. And then
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: of course there's the military that's trying to be more moderate.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: Right I think that is that is the latest. All right, good,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: I will leave it there.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: I will be back sometime tomorrow.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: I hope. I'm switching hotels tomorrow. I'll be in Duham
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: in northern England. I'm hoping that the hotel day has
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: decent internet. I've got an event tomorrow night at Doham,
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: so I'll probably be broadcasting again early, not as early
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: as today, a little later, but early. If the internet
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: is good enough up there, I'll test it in advance.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: I think this new way of streaming directly from restream
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: is working pretty well, so I will be adopting that
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: on my travels and maybe even at home if I
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: can get everything working, and with that, I will call
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: it a day. Thank you all for being here, Thanks
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: to all the super chatters, and I will see you guys.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: I will see you guys, hopefully tomorrow tomorrow, and then
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: maybe also on Wednesday. Thursday is going to be a challenge.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: Friday suddenly, no, I'll be flying all day, but we're
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: back to a regular schedule. From home on Saturday, at
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: least for a few days before I travel again to
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: Hondu US. All right, guys, thank you see tomorrow. Bye.