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Week 13 2025 College Football Picks for the 8 Midweek Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's Week thirteen of the twenty twenty five college football season.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: It's almost over. We still got some weaknight games that
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: we gotta make picks on.
• 0:08
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  Speaker 5: But he's our best mate, and even though he's always
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  Speaker 5: banging on about stust past completion, there's no one we'd
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  Speaker 5: rather watch the much to the sports that bring us together.
• 1:06
  Speaker 5: Heineken zero zero Welcome.
• 1:12
  Speaker 6: In Winning Cures Everything. It's college football podcast.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
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  Speaker 1: of the different socials, most active on X although I'm
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  Speaker 1: not really all that active on really any of them.
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  Speaker 6: To be completely honest.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I got too many things going on, too many fires
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: in the kitchen. If you will, all right, we got
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: things to discuss. Let me first go on and tell
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: you subscribe, like comment and check out buying me a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
• 1:41
  Speaker 6: Let's get to games. Game number one.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: We start on Tuesday night, six pm Central Time, God's
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Time Zone on ESPN U Akron going to Bowling Green.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green currently at three and a half to four
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: point favorite, depending on the book total of forty seven
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and a half on this one. It opened Bowling Green
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: favored by four and a half, but there has already
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: been action coming in on Akron last four weeks. I've
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: got Akron favored by almost twelve points power rating. I've
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: got Bowling Green by less than two. Projected stat spread
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: has Bowling Green by less than two. The quarterback has
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: been off and on all year Drew Pine as their starter,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: but it's your guess as good as mine as to
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: whether or not he's going to play in this game.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So looking back through Bowling Green two and three against
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the spread at home so far this season, Akron is
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: two and three against the spread on the road. Although
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Akron's margin of victory significantly lower are their margin of
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: difference minus eight point nine Bowling Green minus four point four,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So both teams playing below expectation on the road versus
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: at home. That is what it is as far as
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: overall talent number one twenty eight for Akron, number one
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: thirty one for Bowling Green. Bowling Green better special teams.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Not very good turnover margin, but they are better at
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: not giving the fotball away, but they're not nearly as
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: good at takeaways as Akron is. Penalties per game Bowling
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Green worst number one oh four. Akron is actually inside
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the top fifty as far as penalties per game, So
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good. You look at these two teams, and
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you know, Bowling Green current strength schedule number ninety seven
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: that I think has more to do with who they
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: play in the non con than anything else. Just not
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: a neither team is great overall, I will say that
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: this thing is still sitting at three and a half.
• 3:33
  Speaker 6: And four. At a couple of different spots.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Akron has been playing better as of late now. Some
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: of those have been at home, and one of those
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the U Mass game. I don't know exactly how much
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: we can take off of that one, because Northern Illinois
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: has looked like complete garbage and they turned around and
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: beat you Mass about what forty two last week? It
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: was like forty five to three or forty two to three,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: whatever it was. U Mass almost shouldn't count towards your staff,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: just ridiculous. Acron number sixty seven and defensive success rate
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate number ninety seven. Both of these teams
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit better on defense than they are on offense.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Akron a little bit better on offense than Bowling Green
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: has shown to be. Who can finish drives here, Bowling
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Green on offense number one nineteen in points per scoring opportunity,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Acron number ninety six. On defense on the other side,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Acro number one oh three in points per scoring opportunity
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green's defense number sixty one.
• 4:30
  Speaker 6: So found that a little bit interesting.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: That maybe, eh, maybe Akron not great at this but
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I will tell you Bowling Green red zone conversion percentage.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: They are number one thirty three in defensive red zone
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: touchdown rates, so they give up. They give up touchdowns
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of the time, over seventy five percent of
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the time when you've got a red zone spot there.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: So maybe Akron will have a little bit of success
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: when they get down there. Bowling Green's offense number one
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: seventeen in offense red zone touchdown rate, Akron's defense number
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: forty six, So Akron can keep people out of the
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: end zone whenever they get down there, but still number
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: one oh three in points per scoring opportunity there at
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: least giving up a field goal when you're down there.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a really really
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: tight game. You know, forty seven and a half is
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: our total and it's still sitting there. I'm gonna take
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Akron plus the four. I think they've been playing a
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: little bit better. I don't trust Bowling Green necessarily, so
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: will we'll go with the road dog here? Give me
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Akron plus four. Game number two, six pm Central time,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: God's time Zone on CBS Sports Network. U Mass is
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: headed to Ohio, and it's really difficult to figure this
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: one out. All of the numbers say that you Mass
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: should be the play.
• 5:51
  Speaker 6: This team is so banged up, and they have been so.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Bad recently forty whatever to three lost in Northern Illinois,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: forty whatever to three loss to Akron. They just have
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: not even been competitive against mac teams. It's been atrocious
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: right now. Ohio favored by thirty two and a half
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: in this one total of fifty one and a half.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Ohio by twenty. My projected stat
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: spread has Ohio by a little over twenty. The last
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: four weeks actually has Ohio by thirteen point four. The
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: play should be UMass or should Yeah, it should be UMass,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: But my goodness, the UMass defense is awful. The u
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Mass offense is awful. They are number one thirty six
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: in PPA per drive on offense, number one twenty seven
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per drive on defense.
• 6:48
  Speaker 6: And when you're talking just pure PPA.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Margin, that's predicted points added margin number one thirty five,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Ohio is number fifty four, and Ohio at home adds
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit to it. Ohio four and one against
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: the spread at home plus four point five. You Mass
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: one and four against the spread on the road at
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: minus twelve point twelve, so they play even worse than
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: expectations on the road. This since twenty twenty four, Ohio
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: is nine and two against the spread, But I don't
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: believe they've ever been favored by this much at home.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Thirty two and a half is crazy. But if you're
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: looking at even forty four to seven, forty five to seven,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: forty two to seven, if we're not expecting you Mass
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: to put up anything more than a touchdown or a
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: field goal, Ohio can certainly put up that many points here.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Ohio is number ninety seven in points per scoring opportunity,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: but you Mass is number one thirty on defense. On
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: the other side, you Mass number one thirty six, and
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity, Ohio's defense is number eight. So
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: we're not expecting u Mass to be able to score,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: and we think that Ohio can kind of name their score.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Ohio currently six and four straight up.
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: They are.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I don't believe they are necessarily in the mix for
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the MAC Championship, but I could be wrong. There actually
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: no they are in the mix for the MAC Championship.
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: So at this point.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: It might make more sense to take a first half
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: number with Ohio because if they are playing for a
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: conference championship or the chance to get there, then you
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: don't want to get your guys hurt, so you probably
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: don't play them most of the second half if you're
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: already up big. My first half projection on this has
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Ohio minus nine point six. That has a lot to
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: do with PPA per play, et cetera. Tosses in some
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: success rate which Ohio number eighty one and overall defensive
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. I don't think that number is high enough.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I think I think Ohio should easily be favored by
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: almost twenty in the first half. Uh yeah, I mean
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: this is this is wild, absolutely wild. Uh there's no
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: other way I can go other than Ohio. And that
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: number has gotten big, but it's still under five touchdowns.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Give me the Bobcats minus thirty two and a half.
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  Speaker 1: If you haven't already subscribed to the channel, go ahead
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  Speaker 1: and like the video and jump in the comments and
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: tell me what your picks are on these games. I'm
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: curious which direction you're going. Game number three is staying
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday again six pm Central time, this one on
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: ESPN two. Western Michigan going two Northern Illinois. Western Michigan
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: currently favored by six here with a total of thirty
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: eight and a half on this The total has not moved, however,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan favored by six and a half. Initially, it's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: down down to six basically everywhere. My power rating has
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan by four point nine. My projected stat spread
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: has Western Michigan by four point four to seven. My
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: last four weeks has Western Michigan minus five point two
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: to two. If you look at against the spread numbers
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: home for Northern Illinois, they are one and three against
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the spread at home minus two point eight. Western Michigan
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: two and two against the spread minus one point eight.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: And the best unit on the field in this game
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: is going to be the Western Michigan defense, number twenty
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: two in PBA allowed per drive. Northern Illinois their numbers
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: look a whole lot better right now than they would
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: have because they demolished and I'm talking demolished UMass last week.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Their defensive numbers look a whole lot better because of that.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So let's take a look at what we got. When
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: NIU is on offense, number one thirty in points per
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, Western Michigan's defense number forty six. They don't
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: allow a lot of touchdowns once you get into scoring position,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: which is anytime you get a first down inside the
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: opponent forty yard line. On the other side, when Western
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Michigan has the football, they are number one oh seven
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity and I use defense as
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: number twenty one, so they don't allow a lot of
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: touchdowns either.
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: Down there, Northern Illinois number.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Fifty six and defensive red zone touchdown rate Western Michigan
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: number thirty four. However, Western Michigan number forty seven in
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: offensive red zone touchdown rate. Their issue is they are
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: number ninety five in offensive red zone appearances per game.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: If you're number one twenty in offensive red zone conversion
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: percentage but number forty seven in red zone touchdown rate,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: this is your culprit right here.
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: Number one twenty.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Two in special teams efficiency, but NIU is number one
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: twenty three, so we're not talking about a massive difference.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: NIU number one twenty four and five factors rank. Western
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Michigan is number eighty two. This NIU team is bad.
• 13:18
  Speaker 6: They are just bad.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: And I know that they beat up on UMass that
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: was their third win of the season, but this is
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I don't believe that these two teams are comparable. NIU
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: number one twenty three and available yards margin Western Michigan
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: is number forty five. So that'll tell you at least
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit. When you look at turnover margin Western
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Michigan number fifty one and turnover margin number fifty six,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: and giveaways per game number one forty or sorry, number
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: forty nine and takeaways per game. NIU cannot generate turnovers.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: They're typically pretty good about not giving the ball away, though,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: so if we have a relatively clean game, both of
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: these teams top twenty and penalties per game. I think
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan is the better football team overall.
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: So yeah, six points might feel like a lot.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: With this, but I don't think an IU is very
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: good and I think Western Michigan's defense is a huge,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: huge difference here. Give me the Broncos the road favorite.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I will take Western Michigan minus six. Game number four
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: we moved to Wednesday night. This one, six pm Central
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: time on ESBN two.
• 14:23
  Speaker 6: Miami of Ohio goes.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: To Buffalo Buffalo currently a two and a half point
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: favorite total of thirty nine and a half on this
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: that total has come down from forty one and a
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: half down to thirty nine and a half. Your guess
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: is as good as mine on whether or not or
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: on what Miami is going to get out of the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: quarterback position. Right power rating has Miami by one. Last
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: four weeks has Miami by three and a half, and
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: then the projected stat spread has Buffalo minus point zero eight.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: The reason why Buffalo is favored here one day are
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: at home, but two apparently Dakwan Finn, the starting quarterback
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: for Miami, is shutting it down for the season. He
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: didn't play last week against Toledo and Miami just got
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: boat raced. Nobody knew that was happening, and then you
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: saw a bunch of tweets in the middle of the
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: week about how the quarterback is gone. Who knows what
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: happened there? I haven't been able to dig in enough.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: This Miami defense is still pretty good. The offense did
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: not look good with the new quarterback, but that was
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: against Toledo, who is easily the best defense in the
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: MAC and probably maybe a top twenty defense overall in
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the country. I mean they are They're really good. Not
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: as talented, but you know, is what it is. Miami
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: as far as overall talent ranked number ninety, Buffalo number
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: one twenty five. At special team's efficiency, both teams are
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: inside the top sixteen.
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: But if you can't move to the football.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: That's going to be a problem. Miami of Ohio when
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: they're on offense number ninety three in points per scoring opportunity,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's defense is number twelve. In giving up touchdowns. Buffalo
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: on offense number one oh five and points per scoring opportunity,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Miami's defense is number fifty eight.
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: The biggest issue for Buffalo.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: There are number one twenty three in giveaways per game,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: and a lot of that can be attributed to there
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: we go offense number well. Obviously, the offense number one
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: ten in interceptions thrown per pass attempt. Miami's defense is
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: number twenty five in interceptions gained per pass attempt defended,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: So I would imagine we're going to see some turnovers here.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Miami number one, twenty five and
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: interceptions thrown per pass attempt Buffalo number ninety four. They
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: don't generate turnovers the same way that Miami does, so
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Miami number thirty and takeaways per game Buffalo number sixty nine.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: There both teams inside the top fifty five as far
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: as penalties per game Miami thirty four. Then turnover margin
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Buffalo one to fifteenth. All of the different numbers would
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: lead you to believe that Buffalo, you know, should be
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the better team here.
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: Overall.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: But man, uh, two and a half feels like a lot.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: But when we don't know what we're getting out of
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: the Miami quarterback position, like if he plays the same
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: as he did last week. I mean, this Buffalo team
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: is number twenty five and defensive success right allowed, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: they're really good against the run. And if Miami is
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: going to plan on running the football a lot, which
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: they typically do over our almost fifty four percent of
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the time, I would expect Buffalo to be able to
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: kind of handle business there, especially standard downs, standardowns success
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: rate Buffalo number twenty two on defense, you got I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: gotta go with Buffalo here. I don't know what I'm
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: going to get from that quarterback position. And while I
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: do trust Miami's defense, the home road splits. As far
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: as against the spread, there's not a whole lot of
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: difference here. Three and two for Miami on the road,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: two and three for Buffalo at home. I don't think
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: there's a massive difference there, so I will take Buffalo
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: minus the two and a half. Are you looking to
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• 20:01
  Speaker 1: If you like the game comparison spreadsheets, become a member
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: over at buy Me a Coffee dot com Slash Winning Cures.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: There's a link in the description for it, but I
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: do this for every single FBS versus FBS game every
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: single week. Along with we have a matchup comparison tool
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: where you can do any hypothetical matchup, so if you're
• 20:18
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• 20:20
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• 20:22
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• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Cures Game number five also on Wednesday night, six pm
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPNU, Central Michigan heading to Kent State.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: That's right, same Kent State that we bet against last week,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Central Michigan right now is favored by seven
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: and a half to eight depending on the book. Forty
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: six and a half to forty seven and a half
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: is our total here, so the total coming down slightly
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: from the four twenty seven and a half It opened
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half in favor of Central Michigan.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Now some of those books are up to eight. What
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: are we looking at here? Last four weeks, Central Michigan
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: favored by eight point three six. Power rating has Central
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Michigan by five. Projected stat spread has Central Michigan minus
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: five point sixty seven, and the numbers this is where
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: they get a little fluky, right, a little weird. Kent
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: State is number one thirty one in PPA margin, they're
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: number one thirty four in offensive success rate, number one
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: oh four in defensive success rate, but their current strength
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: of schedule is number forty eight, so it's going to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: be tough to build those numbers back up, although they
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: have been playing a lot better in MacPlay. There are
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: six and four against the spread a Central Michigan is
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: seven and three against the spread. Looking at the home
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: split home road splits, Kent State three and one against
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the spread at home plus sixteen point one, Central Michigan
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: three and three against the spread away from home minus
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: one point five, So a little bit of an advantage
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: for Kent State at home. Central Michigan is noumber forty
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: and PPA margin better on defense than they are on
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: offense number fifty six, defensive success rate on defense number
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: thirty one, and PPA allowed per drive on offense not
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: so great, number seventy two in ppaver drive Kent State's numbers, though,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: were just not good across the board. Number one twenty
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: five in offensive ppable drive this predicted points added for
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: those that don't know. Number one twelve on defense. And
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: when you start looking at special team's efficiency, you know,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: both of these teams outside the top eighty. But man
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: Kent State is number one twenty five and Central Michigan
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: is number eighty nine. There this Central Michigan offense pretty
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: good at throwing the football. They only throw at thirty
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: one percent of the time. Now, remember their head coach
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: is Matt Drinkle, who was the offensive line coach at Army,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: and they are running the ball almost sixty eight percent
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: of the time. They're just not great at it. Number
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: one oh six and rushing success rate. Found that to
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: be interesting that they would continue doing that. Now they
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: run it, they run it, they run it, they run it,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: they run it, and then they hit you with play action,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: which is why they are number ten in yards per attempt,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: number six in QBR, number thirty five in passing explosiveness.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: But you know, Kent State, I think can hang with this.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I think they can hang here. The Kent State offense
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit better throwing the full all than they
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: are running it, although they do run it more than
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: they throw it. Passing success rate the number one thirty five,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: but they are number forty five in QBR, number thirty
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: four in yards per attempt. I think Casey has some
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: things figured out with this offense, and they've got some
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I like their quarterback.
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: I like the quarterback a lot.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I do think the Kent State like this is a
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: team that can still make a bowl game, which is
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: mind blowing to think about. They've got a lot to
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: play for here. Central Michigan is also playing for MAC
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: title contention. If I'm not mistaken, this is this is
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: an interesting spot for a team to be on the
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: road favored by more than a touchdown. I think Kent
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: State hangs around here, so I'm gonna looking at points
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: for scoring opportunity, defensive red zone conversion, percentage, offensive red zone,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. I need to start pulling
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: just MAC numbers for these. But I think Kent State
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: can hang around here, So I'm gonna go Kent State.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Best number I can get his eight, but I will
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: take the Golden Flashes to stay within one score of
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: the Chipplewalls game number six on to Thursday, and we've
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: got Arkansas State hosting Louisiana this one at six thirty
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: pm Central Time, God's Time Zone on ESPN. Arkansas State
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: favored by three to three and a half depending on
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the book, and we've got a total of fifty four
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: and a half across the board. That number has not moved.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Projected stat spread has Arkansas State by three and a half.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Ish power rating has Arkansas State by three point six.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Last four weeks has Arkansas State by three point five six.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's basically right on the number, because this
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: thing continued to go up. It opened at two and
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: a half. Louisiana on the road two and three against
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the spread negative points seven points, Arkansas State at home
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: five and zero against the spread plus eight point two points.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: They play so much better at home than they do
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: on the road. And you know this is a team
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: that's five and five. Both of these teams still fighting
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: to make a bowl game. So I don't anticipate anybody
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: giving up or playing second stringers or anything like that.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: This one's going to go down to the wire. And
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State being at home, I believe is a little
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: bit of an advantage there, a little bit of an advantage,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: all right, looking at when Arkansas State has the football
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: number fifty five in scoring opportunities per game. That's when
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: you get a first down inside the opponent forty yard line.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: But they are number one thirteen in points per scoring opportunity.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: And you can tell offensive red zone conversion percentage, number
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: twenty one in red zone appearances per game, but they
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: are number one fourteen in offensive red zone touchdown rate,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: so not great at finishing drives. However, Louisiana's defense number
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: one fifteen in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: And you know they're what number.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Sixty two in points per scoring opportunity. The issue is
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: that they give up a lot of scoring opportunities, number
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: one thirty one in the country at that. So you
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: know available yards margin their defense is number one ten.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State's defense number fifty seven. I find that interesting
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: as far as available yards margin. Louisiana on offense runs
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: the football. Now, they run it almost fifty eight percent
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: of the time. They are number thirty five in yards
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: per rush. They are number seventy six and rushing success rate,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: but they are number forty three in rushing explosiveness. This
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: is a team that can probably run the football on
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State. Although Arkansas State, I will tell you, is
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: number forty seven offensive line yards allowed, they are number
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: sixty five and stuff rate, but they're still number one
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: oh seven in yards allowed per rush, a number one
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: o one in PBA per rush, all that kind of stuff.
• 27:17
  Speaker 6: Passing the ball.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: It's just kind of a wash here for both teams.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Jalen Rayner leads the country in pass attempts per game.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: They are number twenty six in pass rate fifty five,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: almost fifty five percent of the time they're throwing the
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: football as supposed to running it. So Arkansas State maybe
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of an advantage throwing the football.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: They're not great at it by any stretch. And this
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Louisiana team, like once Walker Howard went down, they have
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: not been throwing the football hardly at all, hardly at all.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Very interesting to see what's gonna happen here when Louisiana
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: gets into scoring position, which is not offen They're number
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: ninety four and scoring opportunities per game. They are number
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: ninety five and points for scoring opportunity. Arkansas State number
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: ninety eight in points first scoring opportunity. So this will
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: be interesting to see who can finish drives who can't.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: As far as turnovers go, Arkansas State is number one
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: twenty three and giveaways per game, but Louisiana is number
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: ninety six, so there's not a major difference number one
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: fifteen to number eighty. As far as turnover margin is
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: not a huge different tier special team's efficiency Arkansas State
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: number fifty four, Louisiana number one twelve. Yeah, Arkansas State
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: just overall is a better football team number one oh
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: four and five factors shrink Louisiana number one twenty two.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Louisiana a better first half team, Arkansas State a significantly
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: better second half team.
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: If you're looking at point.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Margin, I know that we've still got some threes out there.
• 28:52
  Speaker 6: I wouldn't go over three.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: It says Arkansas State minus three point six, minus three
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: point six minus three point five six. Y'all take Arkansas
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: State minus the three. But I if this thing gets
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: to three and a half, four, eh, maybe maybe be
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: careful and maybe sit this one out. But I'll take
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: our as far as the show is concerned, because we
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: make picks on this show, I'll take Arkansas State minus three.
• 29:17
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  Speaker 12: A Christmas visit to Dondrum with Mom and stuff fuller
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  Speaker 12: us and Brown Thomas. She's spraying the perfumes around like
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  Speaker 12: air fresheners. We do Harvey Nichols and always Reese m
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  Speaker 12: and s. She gets her brows done at Edvard and
• 29:45
  Speaker 12: Pink talk about a new face. Then it's Katsu's and
• 29:47
  Speaker 12: Wagamama and a Hansel and Gretel Panto at the Meal Theater.
• 29:51
  Speaker 12: Later I drop her home and Mom says, thank you, pet.
• 29:54
  Speaker 12: Best day out in ages. Search Dondrum Town Center and
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  Speaker 12: make a day of it this Christmas.
• 30:00
  Speaker 13: I'm thinking we need to talk to him about it.
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  Speaker 4: You might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
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  Speaker 4: a time as any.
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  Speaker 13: Okay, I'll give it a go.
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• 31:01
  Speaker 6: Make sure jump in the comments.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Let me know what your picks are on these games,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: because I don't want you coming back at me afterwards
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: when I miss one inevitably, but let me know your picks. Also,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel like the video we moved to Friday,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: seven pm Central Time on ESPN Florida State the seminoles
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: ahead to rally they're going to take on the NC
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: State wolf Pack. Right now, Florida State favored by four
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: and a half to five depending on the book total
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: of sixty one and a half on this one, And
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: this one hasn't moved much, but it has moved in
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: favor of Florida State, which makes sense because NC State
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: just got absolutely demolished by Miami last week and this
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: team is pretty beat up. They don't look great, and
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Florida State's offensive efficiency numbers have still just remained awesome
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: all year, even through a really rough stretch that they had,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: this team has still been pretty good, pretty good. So
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: I look at this and I think, man, that feels
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: like a lot of points on the road. And if
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: you look Florida State zero and three against the spread
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: on the road, they are minus seventeen point three. N
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: C State three and two against the spread at home
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: plus point six. But man, their defense is really really
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: bad number one fourteen and PPA allowed per pass number
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: eighty three and PPA allowed per rush. Teams do not
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: run on them a whole lot. They're number seventeen and
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate allowed Florida State is number eight.
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: This is.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: This is going to be interesting to see what Florida
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: State is capable of doing here. Florida State only throws
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: the ball about forty one percent of the time, but
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: they are pretty efficient with it. NC State's defense is
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: just awful at defending the pass, number one nineteen in
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per pass attempt, number one eleven and QBR allowed.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: They are number one twenty five or one point fifteen and.
• 32:51
  Speaker 6: Have it created.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: If you can't get to Thomas Castellanos, if you can't
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: get to the running backs in the backfield, I don't
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: know what you're going to be able to do against
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the Florida State offense. I mean, it's pretty crazy. Florida
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: State is still there's number seventy five and giveaways per game,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: but NC State is two. The difference is that NC
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: State is number one oh seven and takeaways per game,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Florida State is number fifty three.
• 33:19
  Speaker 6: Does that change with it being on the road.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, the fact that Florida State has not covered
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: a road game yet should tell you at.
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: Least a little bit of stuff.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Florida State hasn't covered a road game in the last
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: two seasons. They are six and one minus fourteen point
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: four in the last two years. Their minus seventeen point
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: three this season in NC State is at least like
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: points six points better on average against the spread at home,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: but they are four to seven and one against the
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: spread at home in the last two years, so it's
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: not like there's a huge advantage. Florida State number forty
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: three in special team's efficiency. NC State is number one
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: fourteen there. Both of these teams are inside the top
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: thirty as far as overall talent rank. But man, this defense,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, when Tony Gibson left, like nothing, nothing has worked.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: DJ Elliott and Charlton Warren have not done great things
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: on that defensive side of the ball. Florida State number
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: twenty seven and five factors rank NC State's number fifty four.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Florida State much better in the first half and the
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: second half than NC State has been. And if you look,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: they allowed thirty one point six points per game the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: NC State defense. The offense only scores twenty nine point nine.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: So they are five and five straight up. And yeah,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: they got the big win over Georgia Tech, but man,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: just a different kind of deal here. Yeah, and they're
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: still they're three and two against the spread, but they're
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: point plus point six better than expectation at home, and
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: that includes whipping Georgia Tech, who they were a significant
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: underdog against. Like I, I don't know what to tell you.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: On offense, NC State number sixteen in points per scoring opportunity.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Florida State's defense is number ninety. The issue for NC
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: State is that they are number one oh one in
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game, so only five point seven to
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: eight drives per game do they get a first down
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: inside the opponent forty. On the other side, Florida State
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: number thirty four in points per scoring opportunity. There are
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: number ten in scoring opportunities per game, so seven points
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: seven to eight drives per game that they get a
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: first down inside of the opponent forty. NC State's defense
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: number one hundred in points allowed per scoring opportunity, number
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: one thirty two in scoring opportunities UH per game.
• 35:37
  Speaker 6: Like this is.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Florida State being oh and three against the spread to
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: six away from home against the spread really gives me
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of pause. Last four weeks would have Florida
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: State by almost nine points. Power rating only has Florida
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: State by three, and the projected stat spread has Florida
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: State by five and a half. I think I think
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Florida State has figured some things out in C State
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I'm real curious about. I don't know, feel good about
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: picking out of one of these teams because I don't trust.
• 36:15
  Speaker 6: Either of them.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: So if I'm gonna go a certain way, I will
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: take the home team on a weeknight, although again I
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about it.
• 36:27
  Speaker 6: I will take in C State.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: As much as I just talked about all the negative
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: stuff they do pop back up every now and then.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: You know they didn't look good at Miami. They are
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: coming back home short week. Florida State has Florida next week.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I mean NC State's got North Carolina next week. Should
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: make a huge difference. Ah, all of these numbers say
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I should take Florida State. I mean, it's it's crazy,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: all right, here's what we're gonna do.
• 36:58
  Speaker 6: We're good.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: The best number I can get out there is a five.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take NC State plus the five at
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: home with the thought process that NC State's offense can
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: hang around on this Florida State defense and the fact
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: that Florida State plays awful away from home.
• 37:13
  Speaker 6: So give me n C State plus five.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Last game of the week night slate, We're staying on
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Friday night, this one at nine thirty pm Central Time
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: on FS one, God's time zone.
• 37:25
  Speaker 6: Of course, Hawaii heading to Las.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Vegas to take on UNLV, who got a massive, massive
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: win in their quest for the Mountain West Conference title,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: or at least a birth in that UNLV right now
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: favor by two and a half to three depending on
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the book total of sixty four and a half on
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: this Hawaii I believe, coming off of a bye UNLV
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: coming off of that overtime win against Utah State just
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: a bonkers, bonkers game, absolutely bonkers. UNLV number fifty five
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: and ppa margin Hawaii number sixty six. These two teams,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: UNLV is eight and two, Hawaii is seven and three.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Hawaii two and two against the spread on the road
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: this year plus one point six, UNLV one and four
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home minus five point seven, so
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: they played below expectations at home. Hawaii has played a
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: little bit above expectation on the road plus one point
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: six there, but over the past two years three and
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: six against the spread on the road, UNLV four and
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: seven against the spread in the last two years at home,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: so neither team a massive advantage as far as playing
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: in front of a crowd that would be at Allegiance
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Stadium right. UNLV number nineteen in turnover margin, Hawaii is
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: number one oh one Hawaiian number one of seven and
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game.
• 38:46
  Speaker 6: Very interesting.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Most of them are fumbles and for whatever reason, UNLV
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: has been really good at getting fumbles.
• 38:53
  Speaker 6: On defense.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: They are number twenty six and fumbles gained per rushing attempt.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: Hawaii's offense number one in eleven and fumbles lost per
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: ushing attempt. Now, that's maybe part of the reason why
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: they run the ball the second least in the entire
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: country thirty six percent of the time. They are throwing
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: it the second most in the country sixty three point
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: two two percent of the time. Let's look at UNLV
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: when they are on offense, number twenty four in ppaber
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: drive number thirty four in offensive success rate. They are
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity. Hawaii's defense
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: is number thirty nine, So Hawaii makes it where teams
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: are not able to finish drives against them. However, they
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: do give up a ton of scoring opportunities per game
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: five point six drives per game. Their defense allows a
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: first down inside their forty yard line. Un V is
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: number forty six and scoring opportunities per game. Now, on
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the other side, Hawaii is number seventy in points per
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunit. UNLV's defense is number ninety seven. So Hawaii,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: for as much as they're able to move the ball,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: and they throw the ball around a lot on offense,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: they can't really finish a bunch of drives right as
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: far as offensive red zone conversion percentage, Hawaii is number
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: ninety four in offensive red zone touchdown rate. UNLV's defense
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: is number ninety five, but they don't allow a lot
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: of red zone appearances, so it doesn't necessarily hurt them
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: all that much. On the other side, UNLV number seventeen
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: in offensive red zone appearances per game, but they are
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: number sixty eight in touchdown rate. Hawaii's defense is number
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: thirty in red zone touchdown rate, but they're number forty
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: six in red zone appearances per game. So we're going
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: to see exactly who can drive the ball on each
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: other available yards margin. You're looking at number forty three
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: for Hawaii, number fifty one for UNLV. The turnover margin
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: is maybe the biggest thing here. I told you Hawaii
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven and giveaways per game. UNLV is
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: number fourteen and take aways per game, So I would
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: imagine we're going to see some turnovers somewhere from Hawaii.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Curious about whether or not UNLV is going to turn
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: over their number forty eight and giveaways per game, Hawaii
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: number sixty nine and take aways per game.
• 41:12
  Speaker 6: So something to pay attention to.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: With that, these two teams are pretty much even when
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: it comes to five factors rank. But when you're looking
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: at overall talent rank, UNLV significant advantage over Hawaii number
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: seventy three. In overall talent rank Hawaii number one twenty nine,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Hawaii in the top twenty five.
• 41:31
  Speaker 6: As far as special teams efficiency.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: UNLV is outside the top fifty. But five factors rank
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: just raw five factors un V number eighty one, Hawaii
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: number eighty. But when you do five factors plus talent,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: un l V number seventy five, Hawaii number one hundred.
• 41:49
  Speaker 8: This is a.
• 41:51
  Speaker 6: Crazy close number.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks has UNLV by four and a half.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: Ish power rating has UNLV minus four point two. Projected
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: stat spread has UNOV minus four and a half. There
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: are still two and a half's out there. I don't
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: like Hawaii away from the island. I will take UNLV
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: even though they rarely ever cover it home. I am
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: gonna take them in this spot, so I will take
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: UNLV minus two and a half. All right, let's recap it.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: We got eight games this week. I'm taking Akron plus four,
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Ohio minus thirty two and a half, Western Michigan minus six,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Buffalo minus two and a half, Kent State plus eight,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State minus three, n C State plus five, UNLV
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half.
• 42:37
  Speaker 6: Once again, buy meacoffee.
• 42:39
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• 42:41
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• 42:57
  Speaker 1: this sport so much. Even the midnight game or midnight
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: midweek games. Sometimes these are more fun because everybody's watching
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: them at the same time. It's just it's a good time,
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  Speaker 1: all right. Don't forget tomorrow. We got another one coming out.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Our ten Biggest Games of the Week and Bay with
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Slim Piggins. This week, the show was this is a
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: rough week, and the next week. I'm only gonna have
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: two videos because I mean, it's Thanksgiving week, Rivalry week.
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: We got things to do, all right.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: With that said, let's get out of here. Take care
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: of yourself, take care of each other. God bless college
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: football and hopefully all of.
• 43:33
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• 43:36
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