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📣 Expert Insight 📣 SILVER & GOLD'S Prospects Revealed! · SILVER / GOLD / $UFD: Surviving Global Economic Shifts | RONS BASEMENT

• 0:00
  I think if prices start to break out, we break over like 3250 on
• 0:04
  silver, you could see more unwinding or less hedging take
• 0:08
  place by those companies. Today, we're fortunate to be
• 0:15
  joined by Phil Streibel. He's the Chief Market Strategist
• 0:19
  at Blue Line Futures. He's been on CNBC and Fox, as I
• 0:23
  understand, and today he's going to join us in the basement to
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  talk about silver, gold, copper and a few other general market
• 0:31
  topics. Phil, welcome to Ron's Basement.
• 0:34
  Yeah. Thanks for having me on, Ron.
• 0:36
  So, so you've been following these markets for years.
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  Obviously, if we zoom in on silver and gold, we've had a big
• 0:43
  run up lately. Today, as we record this
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  Thursday, August 22nd, we're had a a bit of a pullback.
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  What are your general thoughts when you look at what's
• 0:54
  happening right now in the silver and gold markets?
• 0:57
  Yeah, Ron And I've been doing this for about 20-3 years as a
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  licensed future commodity brokerage advisor.
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  I, we're in some of the largest trading desks, you know, in the,
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  in the entire world when it comes to trading gold and silver
• 1:10
  specifically. So the way that we interpret it
• 1:13
  is kind of more on the macro theme.
• 1:16
  And we take shorter term approaches, not necessarily day
• 1:19
  trading, but we like to look at where we're at in the cycle,
• 1:21
  where we're at in the investment, the economic cycle
• 1:24
  and things like that. And just recently we had a
• 1:26
  number of developments that have occurred, The Federal Reserve,
• 1:29
  they finally pivoted. They went from an extreme
• 1:32
  hawkish environment, so interest rates are high, which pressures
• 1:36
  the gold market, and to a more dovish stance, which means that
• 1:40
  they are going to start to engage on a cutting cycle.
• 1:43
  So people are going to unfortunately see in their
• 1:47
  savings accounts that that yield that they're getting on those
• 1:50
  money markets. It's going to start to come off
• 1:52
  a bit and people want to reallocate that money somewhere
• 1:56
  else. And a lot of people feel that as
• 1:58
  interest rates are getting cut, that the that the Federal
• 2:02
  Reserve is starting to see that there's a little bit of a darker
• 2:06
  picture, possibly a recession in the future.
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  So people will go into a comfort of buying things like gold.
• 2:12
  And that's why we've seen recent all time highs in it.
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  Interesting. I want to ask your opinion on
• 2:17
  this. It feels like to me over the
• 2:19
  last, let's say two or three years, the gold price and the
• 2:24
  silver price have done pretty well despite the fact that for a
• 2:27
  majority of that time period they were running against the
• 2:31
  wind or sailing into a headwind with these high interest rates.
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  Were you surprised over the last two years that gold and silver
• 2:38
  have done so well and, and how does that bode for the future as
• 2:42
  we do? I mean, obviously they're
• 2:43
  forward-looking, but as we move into this future where we could
• 2:48
  see a lower interest rate environment, do you think that
• 2:50
  silver and gold could go higher from here even?
• 2:54
  Absolutely. And you know, you look at the
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  way things really they change structurally once after Covad
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  because a lot of people then found comfort and trading in the
• 3:04
  markets and starting to speculate in the markets and
• 3:06
  they looked at different ways to, you know, diversify their
• 3:10
  assets. We saw the stock market, the S&P
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  500 reach all time highs. The same thing with, you know,
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  the NASDAQ, even the Russell have all done quite well.
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  And people naturally broaden out their types of investments.
• 3:22
  So that's why we've seen interest in things like gold and
• 3:25
  silver and other, you know, asset classes.
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  We've seen explosive moves in crypto currencies and people are
• 3:31
  always looking for kind of that next asset class to jump in on
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  it. And it's always been kind of
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  silver has always been kind of that one that people, you know,
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  they remember 2011 and hit $50. We've seen multiple attempts on
• 3:45
  silver squeezes to the upside. So people really find, you know,
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  comfort in allocating towards hard assets like that.
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  And I think you know, over the last couple years we've seen the
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  economy do quite well. Now we are at a turning point.
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  And then also we've seen central banks, they have because of the
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  the complications between a lot of different countries and their
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  relations, a lot of central banks, they divested themselves
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  from holding foreign currencies. And what they've done is they've
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  increased their holdings of gold and physical gold, and that's
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  what's really elevated gold prices.
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  And on top of that, I want your opinion on this, Phil, the gold
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  and silver price have done well over the last few years, but
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  that's also been without much help from the Western investors,
• 4:35
  right? I mean, ETF, ETF flows have been
• 4:39
  somewhat negative. Do you think that if the
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  American public, the Western public in general, does become
• 4:45
  just a little bit more interested in silver and gold,
• 4:47
  that that could be another, you know, marginal source of demand
• 4:51
  to help push the prices higher? If you're looking to buy gold,
• 4:54
  silver or platinum, do yourself a favor and check out PMBEX, the
• 4:59
  online precious metals bullion dealer and sponsor of Ron's
• 5:03
  Basement. I was a happy customer before
• 5:06
  they offered to support the channel.
• 5:09
  You'll find they have the best prices, quality and service.
• 5:13
  I think Pembex is best and you will too.
• 5:16
  And be sure to tell him that you're from Ron's basement.
• 5:19
  No, you'd be surprised because I've looked at studies in about
• 5:22
  11% of the US population owns silver in some form.
• 5:26
  It's about 10% on gold. And I think that the reason why
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  it's more on silver than gold is obviously because of the price
• 5:33
  being about $29.00 an ounce versus about $2500 an ounce.
• 5:38
  But I think people will, they're going to, once they start to get
• 5:42
  worried about things like the debt.
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  We, you know, the debt ceilings and, and how much we're taking
• 5:47
  on. And then also just the reckless
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  fiscal spending that we're doing.
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  And you also have some uneasiness around this
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  presidential election. It's really in the last week or
• 5:57
  so tighten up on the race that I think that people are going to
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  kind of hunker down. They'll be in their own
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  basement, you know, just kind of locking things down.
• 6:06
  And I think that that's where people start to accumulate more
• 6:10
  of the ETFs, more of the silver miners and and more of the
• 6:13
  physical holdings. Yeah, yeah.
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  Well, and I, and I want to mention that's How I Met Phil.
• 6:18
  Every morning Phil puts out an an update video, kind of a
• 6:23
  market update video. And if our viewers want to see
• 6:26
  that they can go to YouTube, type in blue line futures and
• 6:30
  the channel will come up. But it's a great five or six
• 6:33
  minute kind of market update video that comes out in a few
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  days ago you, you pointed out something that I hadn't heard
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  anyone else point out and that is that the silver price has
• 6:43
  lately been somewhat more Co Co related to the copper price.
• 6:48
  Can you bring us kind of up to speed on what's going on there?
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  Yeah, generally what we do is, you know, we look at different
• 6:54
  correlation between markets. I mean traders naturally seek
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  out simplified ways to measure price of a commodity to
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  determine whether it should be bought or sold or whether it's
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  overvalued or undervalued. And we start looking at cross
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  commodity ratios. You can look at things like corn
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  versus soybeans if you're a farmer, gasoline versus crude
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  oil, you know gold versus silver and copper versus silver.
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  So we ran some of the 90 day correlations here and you can
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  see that copper and silver that correlations about 67 percent
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  right now. The gold silver correlation over
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  the last 90 days is 83% and the copper gold correlations 50%.
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  But you could see that a lot of because of the natural
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  industrial demand and silver accounts, about 64% of it is
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  industrial demand where copper is about 100%.
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  It's either industrial electronic demand.
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  You could see that close correlation there.
• 7:52
  I mean, today we're seeing a big sell off.
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  You got silver, you know, as of this recording down about 1.9%.
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  That's a pretty sizable move. It's over $0.50.
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  And you've got the copper futures, those are down about 1
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  1/4%. And it's really it was a miss on
• 8:08
  some men manufacturing PMI data. And because of that you're
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  seeing weaker manufacturing demand.
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  Prices are naturally taking a bit of a step back.
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  That's the kind of update that I would provide like on a video on
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  a day-to-day basis, it's a little bit more, you know, hands
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  on with each little price fluctuation.
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  There's several things I do every morning when I wake up,
• 8:30
  Phil, and you're becoming more and more a part of my morning
• 8:34
  routine. So I visit, I visit with you
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  here in the basement. I know that my viewers love
• 8:42
  silver. I know our viewer here with the
• 8:44
  love silver. You mentioned short squeeze
• 8:46
  earlier, not predicting that we were going to have one, but as
• 8:49
  you work in the futures markets, I imagine you have a a certain
• 8:53
  level of insight into how traders are positioned.
• 8:57
  Is it true that there's a big short position in the silver
• 9:02
  market and and could that need to be at some point unwound,
• 9:05
  potentially resulting in a short squeeze?
• 9:08
  So first Mining Gold is a development company advancing 2.
• 9:11
  Of the largest gold. Projects in Canada, Spring pole
• 9:15
  in Ontario and Du Parque located in Quebec.
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  Each already has five. 1,000,000 ounces.
• 9:22
  Of gold reserves, but. Exploration initiatives are
• 9:25
  underway at both projects to find even more gold.
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  First Mining is well financed, has zero debt and owns an
• 9:34
  interest in four additional Canadian gold development
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  projects. There's a little bit is a little
• 9:40
  bit more depth when it comes to like how the market is short.
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  There have been periods of time in the past where there was, you
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  know, manipulation and people were, you know, intentionally
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  beating the price of silver down.
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  I think with new regulations and things like that and a little
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  bit more transparency in the market that a lot of this funny
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  business has come out of the market.
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  The reason why there would be large short positions in the
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  silver market right now is because of two things.
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  You might see that we're going to go into an economic downturn
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  that things like in China and manufacturing are going to get
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  worse. People are going to spend less
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  money. That just means that the demand
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  for the particular product just isn't there, so the price is
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  naturally going to come down. The second thing is that you
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  think of who reduces silver and gold and copper and things and
• 10:32
  they look at the price of silver, it is quite, it is quite
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  high. I know it's not $4050 what we
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  would what we perceive as high. But what companies do or mining
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  operations as they look at what is their cost to produce one
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  ounce, where is the ounce of silver right now?
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  And what they'll do is they'll forward hedge that production.
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  So they take short positions on the market and all they're
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  trying to do is just just lock in what their production classes
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  and what they can forward sell it and that's how you operate a
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  business. So there is a short position
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  there. Will they lift some of that
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  short? I think if prices start to break
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  out, we break over like 30 to 50 on silver, you could see more
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  unwinding or less hedging take place by those companies.
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  Interesting. I, I hear a lot of analysts talk
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  about including myself that if silver gets above 33 gets into
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  that 33 dollar $34 range that there's going to be very little
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  overhead resistance and that a move up maybe into the mid 40s
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  could happen quickly. Any you're, you're smiling.
• 11:38
  So any any thoughts on that? It's like, it's like we get over
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  like 3250. I think it's like the gloves are
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  off, Ron, we're going to, we're going to a war.
• 11:48
  So yeah, there's there's not a whole lot because then you got
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  to start looking back on the charts.
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  If you're a technician, you know, technical analysis tells
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  you like when to buy and sell. And really we start breaking
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  over these key levels, these old resistance levels become new
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  support levels. So once we can break over there,
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  get a couple a couple trading days above it or say a weekly
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  close or a monthly close, whatever duration people are
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  comfortable with, it tends to attract ETF inflows.
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  And then also you'll hear about like I have a lot of coin
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  dealers as clients. They'll be like, man, I got
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  ransacked over the weekend with a flood of orders, you know,
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  especially when you get the Sunday night explosion in
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  prices. So I think that it becomes a
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  snowball effect. So you get over the 3250.
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  It's almost like the mules getting hit in the head with a 2
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  by 4 and people are like, I don't want to miss out on it.
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  They start allocating some. Then you get the people that
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  naturally chase momentum. They don't care what it is.
• 12:52
  If it's Bitcoin, NVIDIA, the next AI stock, they want to be
• 12:56
  in there. Those people naturally come in.
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  Then it triggers the algorithms that go the trend followers and
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  then that's how we just get really explosive price moves.
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  So you know, one thing that we do is we look at longer dated
• 13:11
  options to try and position when we anticipate that because it'll
• 13:14
  take some of the emotions out by having forward call options.
• 13:19
  Interesting, interesting. So when I, when I explained it
• 13:23
  to my viewers, what I said was, you know, that why, why getting
• 13:26
  into that 32503334 range was so important?
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  One of the reasons is because there just aren't a lot of
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  people out there that are sitting on silver that bought it
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  at 3830 nine $40 saying, boy, if it ever hits $40, I'm going to
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  sell again. Is that an accurate way to to to
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  describe like a lack of overhead resistance it?
• 13:48
  Is it is true. So the the way that, you know,
• 13:52
  when you look at investing in something like silver, OK, you
• 13:56
  kind of look at this thing like a football team, all right?
• 13:59
  And there's offense, there's defense and they're special
• 14:03
  teams. And I think that you look at you
• 14:06
  look at the defense, that's kind of you're not very liquid.
• 14:10
  You know, you're, you're going to be with them, you're going to
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  hold them. You find comfort, you know,
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  around your defense working. And that's similar to owning
• 14:18
  like artwork, antiques, firearms, vintage cars, It's
• 14:22
  it's a buy and hold. So I think that when it comes to
• 14:26
  like owning physical silver, people are that's an asset that
• 14:29
  you're going to just continuously allocate to and you
• 14:32
  may or may not sell it over the course of your life.
• 14:35
  You know, so it's, it's more of the buy and hold.
• 14:38
  I think that the other two components that the offense,
• 14:42
  which is where you're, you know, you're throwing the ball, you're
• 14:44
  trying to strike, make touchdowns and things.
• 14:47
  That's where people utilize ETFs and futures contracts.
• 14:51
  And then I think your special teams is really those miners,
• 14:54
  those junior miners, the royalty companies.
• 14:57
  Gotcha. Gotcha.
• 14:59
  Yeah, I get very excited thinking about the potential
• 15:01
  move for silver in particular from that $34 range to wherever,
• 15:07
  wherever it may go. And you know, people sometimes
• 15:12
  scoff at at at me and others when we talked about the
• 15:15
  potential, let's say for silver to go to $80.00 or $100 per oz.
• 15:20
  And I want to get your kind of switch gears here to go to a
• 15:23
  macro perspective. But it's my understanding that
• 15:26
  from like 2001 to 2011, I think silver went from like 4 or $5.00
• 15:31
  an ounce up to 50, spiked up to 50.
• 15:34
  And that a big reason why was that we were in a period of a
• 15:38
  bear market for the dollar. I think the US dollar index went
• 15:42
  from, I don't know, 120 down to like 75.
• 15:46
  Could you? I mean when I when I look at the
• 15:48
  macro environment and when I look at the fiscal situation in
• 15:52
  our country, obviously the debt, the deficit, it's everything
• 15:56
  else. It feels like to me that that
• 15:58
  it's almost inevitable that at minimum in real terms the dollar
• 16:01
  is going to go down in value. But if we also have a bear
• 16:04
  market in the dollar that it could be like a very strong
• 16:09
  support source of support for silver. 100% And you know if you
• 16:16
  look at the dollar index, it's been getting hit pretty hard
• 16:19
  over the last couple weeks really as the Fed said that they
• 16:22
  were going to start to cut rates as they get as they cut those
• 16:26
  rates, the dollar index naturally gets weaker.
• 16:28
  And then of course the reckless spending that we've seen out of
• 16:32
  out of the government has really just kind of put dollars
• 16:35
  everywhere. You know, it seems like we're
• 16:37
  kind of supporting everyone around the globe in some
• 16:40
  capacity. So it's that dollar dilution
• 16:43
  that has really has a lot of concerns and that's why people
• 16:47
  spend our own hard assets and things that are inflation type
• 16:53
  protected. But I think if we start to get
• 16:55
  the breakdown there, you could really see it.
• 17:00
  I think that'll mostly boost the gold market, that correlation
• 17:04
  between gold and silver about 83%.
• 17:06
  So I think that that's where silver finds its bottom.
• 17:09
  But in order to get the like 1-2 punch on silver where prices
• 17:14
  take off, say you do get that, where the dollar starts selling
• 17:18
  off, feds cutting rates and things like that, you need
• 17:20
  China, which has been, they're one of the largest consumers of
• 17:24
  copper and silver out there. They use it for, you know, their
• 17:27
  industrial space. You get them trying kind of
• 17:31
  boost their economy and try and stimulate and then then you're
• 17:35
  throwing gasoline on the fire. And that's where silver prices
• 17:39
  really outperform gold. And you could get that gold,
• 17:42
  silver ratio down into the 60s, fifties, 40s.
• 17:46
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• 17:51
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• 17:54
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• 17:59
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• 18:02
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• 18:07
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• 18:11
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• 18:19
  sustainable production of in demand precious and base metals.
• 18:24
  The 1-2 punch and potentially at some point even like a one 2-3
• 18:27
  punch. Yeah.
• 18:28
  I was talking to somebody the other day about the 1980 high
• 18:32
  and silver, which was $50.00 an ounce.
• 18:35
  And if you inflation adjust that some people say 150.
• 18:39
  I mean, there's all different numbers out there, but the like
• 18:43
  back in 1980, how different things are now.
• 18:45
  You talked about a few of your clients being coin dealers.
• 18:48
  Like in 1980, you hear stories about people lining up outside
• 18:53
  coin shops at 6:00 in the morning so that they could get
• 18:56
  in to buy some silver. Today we're in such a different
• 19:00
  world that like, you know, the, the, the on the, on the retail
• 19:04
  side. And I'd like to get your
• 19:05
  perspective on this because I know the retail side is just one
• 19:07
  segment obviously of, of silver, but the silver, the retail
• 19:11
  silver supply can get wiped out in an hour with online, you
• 19:15
  know, you and I could purchase, you know, 1000 ounces of silver
• 19:18
  in the next 5 minutes with online that things really are,
• 19:22
  you know that we are in kind of a different and in 1980, China
• 19:26
  and India weren't as big of players in the precious metals
• 19:31
  markets like they are now. Yeah, the, the, the coin side is
• 19:34
  very interesting because I think it's very, very, you know,
• 19:37
  finite as far as you know. You got to really look and
• 19:41
  understand like what you're buying on these coins.
• 19:44
  Because I talked to a lot of people where if you're buying
• 19:46
  like the Silver Eagles, that's pretty close to like
• 19:49
  corresponding with like what the spot price is.
• 19:51
  There's a small premium. We've seen premiums really widen
• 19:54
  out. And then that's where you want
• 19:56
  to look towards other alternatives like an ETF or a
• 19:59
  futures contract because you just.
• 20:01
  You'll never be able to achieve if if prices really get going
• 20:05
  because the premiums are so high.
• 20:07
  It eats in your profitability. But I think that the times are
• 20:10
  really different because you go to, you know, silver quarters
• 20:14
  and things like that. But the pre 1965, that's when
• 20:18
  that's when people were buying silver for, you know, with the
• 20:21
  coinage and everything. But now it's just such a
• 20:23
  different product. I think that's silver, you know,
• 20:26
  from an investment in a physical demand only makes up just a
• 20:30
  small portion of what its total demand is.
• 20:32
  It's really that industrial demand makes up 64% of it.
• 20:36
  So you know, it's, it's, it's one thing to hold coins and
• 20:41
  stuff. It's another thing to think
• 20:43
  about if you would ever monetize what you own.
• 20:47
  That's why we think that asset classes like the futures
• 20:50
  contracts make it much easier. Like if you had say we bought
• 20:54
  those thousand eagles 1000 oz and silver goes to 40 bucks
• 20:59
  tonight, how are we going to sell it?
• 21:02
  And if we sell it, how are we going to replace it?
• 21:05
  And that's where I think having you own your physical, you have
• 21:09
  some very liquid form of silver on the side.
• 21:12
  Like you could buy 1000 oz futures contract, it goes to
• 21:16
  40-50 bucks overnight. You sell that futures contract,
• 21:19
  you have Peace of Mind with your eagles.
• 21:21
  And then if prices come back down, you reinitiate on the
• 21:24
  futures contracts. Yeah, or you can take some of
• 21:27
  your profits that you made with with Phil and buy yourself some
• 21:30
  extra eagles and keep some in your account, right?
• 21:33
  Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
• 21:35
  This has been great. Thank you on behalf of myself
• 21:39
  and our viewer who's joined us, I want to give you an
• 21:41
  opportunity. Two things.
• 21:43
  Number one, what did I forget to ask you if there's anything top
• 21:47
  of mind that you want to talk about?
• 21:48
  And then secondly, if, if you wouldn't mind kind of explaining
• 21:52
  to my audience what it is that you do and, and, and how people
• 21:56
  could maybe learn more about you.
• 21:58
  Yeah, I'm the Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures.
• 22:01
  We're a full service futures and commodity brokerage firm.
• 22:04
  We offer comprehensive trading solutions from a self-directed
• 22:08
  trader to a broker assisted, we really have you covered.
• 22:12
  We also have more of a hands off approach.
• 22:15
  We've got an award-winning CTA, our global opportunities
• 22:19
  commodity trading advisor. We were up about 6% July, 22%
• 22:23
  year to date. And then we're also a registered
• 22:25
  investment advisor. We offer long term wealth
• 22:28
  management solutions. We build out portfolios using
• 22:31
  the equities and what makes this a little bit different, we're
• 22:33
  someone would have an 8020 portfolio, 6040 where some of
• 22:37
  that, that debt portion of it will take like the bond
• 22:41
  position. We'll cut that down and we'll
• 22:43
  start adding things like you know, gold miners and gold and
• 22:47
  things like that. It helps you keep up with
• 22:49
  inflation, protects you as well, and it also provides a coupon
• 22:54
  that we'll utilize for other things.
• 22:56
  So you know, that's one thing there.
• 22:58
  As far as these, these, the one thing I think that people really
• 23:02
  need to understand is that or or be more open minded to is that
• 23:07
  these metals, things like silver and any asset class that's out
• 23:11
  there, they're going to have their ups and downs.
• 23:13
  They are impacted by the supply and the demand side and the
• 23:16
  economic cycle really drives that, that and that, you know,
• 23:20
  don't just become frustrated when you see prices like when
• 23:24
  we're doing this video, it's down 1.7%.
• 23:27
  You know, this is where it's important to keep some powder
• 23:29
  dry. Have a plan, trade your plan,
• 23:32
  and then proceed from there. Yeah, I, I, I tell my audience
• 23:36
  and I have a little hand drawn chart that I'll show during some
• 23:38
  of my live streams. Like a bull market is when
• 23:42
  something consistently goes up, but there's pull backs along the
• 23:45
  way. You're going to have days when
• 23:48
  things go down and you know, and that's part that's a normal,
• 23:51
  healthy part of a bull market. You know more about this and I
• 23:54
  do, but obviously nothing just goes straight up forever without
• 23:58
  crashing back down. Yeah, if you're going to, if
• 24:01
  you're a lot of it is also the position sizing.
• 24:03
  You know, if you get to something like, you know, I did
• 24:06
  a video the other day with gold at all time highs, like how
• 24:09
  should someone approach it? Because they start to have the
• 24:12
  FOMO. And what it is is that you kind
• 24:14
  of, you look at it like a swimming pool.
• 24:16
  You don't just like run and jump into the deep end and go all in.
• 24:20
  You kind of want to stick your foot in, get a gauge of the
• 24:22
  temperature, make sure that there's no sharks swimming
• 24:25
  around there. Then you kind of wade in and
• 24:27
  then you get up to wait steep and then you you kind of go from
• 24:29
  there. That's how investing in things
• 24:31
  like silver and gold. That's why the futures have 1000
• 24:35
  oz contracts, 10 oz contracts on the gold.
• 24:38
  So with this type of correction that we're seeing here today,
• 24:41
  this is where a lot of our clients are going to step in and
• 24:43
  they're going to add a small allocation.
• 24:46
  And then we'll see what the week brings here.
• 24:47
  We've got, you know, the federal Fed's going to be speaking and
• 24:51
  we got that September Fed meeting and we'll, we'll just
• 24:53
  see how the data plays out and try and build something long
• 24:56
  term because we're confident that structurally long term
• 24:59
  prices should be higher. Things should go higher.
• 25:02
  All right, well, I'll put a link to your company's website in the
• 25:05
  description of this video. Again, I want to say thank you
• 25:09
  for the time you've given me and given our viewer.
• 25:12
  Obviously, you have some keen insights into what what goes on
• 25:16
  within the precious metals market and I will be bugging you
• 25:20
  to come back into the basement again maybe in 5-6 weeks.
• 25:24
  Phil, thank you. That thanks, Ron.
• 25:27
  I look forward to it.