Latest / Financial Survival Network / CPI Hit Takes Pressure off the Fed -- Eddie Gifford #5835

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CPI Hit Takes Pressure off the Fed -- Eddie Gifford #5835 · Financial Survival Network

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  You know. The funny thing about that is they recently actually just launched a
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  at chatt and GPT like bought portfolio that buys twenty stocks. I think it's
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  twenty stocks and rebalances weekly and that it's it's it's holding a lot of technology
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  right now. I took a glance at it just to see. You know,
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  out of curiosity, you're listening to Carry Letts's Financial Survival Network, where
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  now more than ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm
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  your host, Terry lets Well. We just got the core CPI numbers out
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  and much as expected, PPI is next, FOMC is happening already. Today
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  is June thirteenth, twenty twenty three, and Friday is the quad which ing
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  hour were or basically four times a year, we have four major asset class
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  options expire on the same day. Eddie Gifford, you are with us now
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  to help make sense of an insane world to your CPI. So we should
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  be dancing in the streets. It came in. It's only point four percent,
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  so or inflation rate of a little more than five percent. It's great,
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  right, Well, you would think so the way the market's reacting.
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  You know, we saw this morning when they first headlined and the headline inflation
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  is actually only at point one month over month. So then when we take
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  out the energy and food, we're at point four month over a month,
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  which annualized is still four point eight percent, so super super far away from
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  that two percent target they keep telling us about. And I think what it
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  does is it kind of opens the window or at least a hawkish stance tomorrow
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  with the Fed, maybe even maybe even a bump, maybe even at quarter
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  point bump. You know, everyone wants Pow to kind of pump the brakes
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  and kind of you know, was play the weight and see game. But
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  if there's anything that he's been Claron over the last eighteen twenty four months,
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  it's that he wants to get inflation under control. And if we go back
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  to the seventies, we can remember that, you know, inflation seemed like
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  it was subsiding. They started to cut and then inflation just like ripped up,
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  and so I think that he doesn't want to make that mistake. But
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  you know, we'll see there. There seems to be a lot of pressure
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  also for a for a more debash stance, so you know, it doesn't
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  help it. It's a you know, pre election year, and then a
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  lot of stuff is going to happen over the next you know, fifteen months,
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  all right, So we're heading for stagflation. In other words, I
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  would say that stagflation is kind of the base case and probably the most worrisome
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  case. At the same time, we're in this scenario where growth is definitely
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  muted and lation looks like it's going to remain elevated. And so you know,
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  if we look at well, what does that mean for markets in general?
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  Generally speaking, if we're looking at the broad stock market, that means
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  we're probably going to be stuck in a range for a while. And I
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  think we're at the top of the range right now. So everyone might argue
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  that AI is going to save us all. But when AI doesn't come through
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  in six months like everyone's anticipating, I think that we're we're going to be
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  disappointed. And so you know, the flexibility and probably keeping your eye on
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  commodities is probably a good stance here. All right. Has anybody asked AI
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  what you should be doing here investment wise? What is Chat GPT latest investment
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  advice? You know? The funny thing about that is they recently actually just
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  launched at Chat and GPT like bought portfolio that buys twenty stocks. I think
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  it's twenty stocks and eleans is weekly and that it's it's it's holding a lot
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  of technology right now. I took a glance at it just to see,
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  you know, out of curiosity and and so you know, like it didn't
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  hold in video. I went in video blew up though, So it definitely
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  can't see the future. All right. So where do we find this AI
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  portfolio? Well, you know, there's there's different ways to find it.
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  The the AI portfolio that I'm referring to is uh, something that was that
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  CNBC was actually promoting through an app called Autopilot that you can kind of jump
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  on and see what it's doing. Um, you know, and I think
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  that there's gonna be a lot more of that. We're going to see a
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  lot of more like AI, at least influenced portfolios. I know that that
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  tactive. We're interviewing like different AI companies to say, hey, like,
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  is there some way that maybe we can add some type of AI derivatives too
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  a model portfolios. So if you're not at least exploring it, then you're
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  falling behind. Yeah, so you played around with it, you tested it
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  out. Oh, I at least like took a look. It lasted lasted
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  the week before I said, no, this is this isn't for me.
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  Uh, you know, I think that you know, it's important to have
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  inputs, and AI can serve as a great input, but you still need
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  someone to interpret those inputs. And your interpretation of those inputs is going to
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  be what's going to drive the success of the portfolio or not. Uh.
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  You know, mechanical works to an extent, but there's a lot of other
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  little things that can really mess up the portfolio. If you trade at the
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  wrong time, if you you know how you trade what you do, if
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  you're using limit orders versus market orders. So there's a lot of different things
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  that even though the signal might be right, the portfolio could be wrong because
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  you just didn't do it right. Ye. So so really, and you
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  did it at the wrong time, because that call might have been good for
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  ten seconds right alone, good for exactly and how many of us can just
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  sit right there and hit the button. And then even if we hit the
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  button, is it going to get filled compared to the supercomputers that we're up
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  against, And the answer is probably not. So, you know, you
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  to lean on good research inputs, have a strategy, make sure that you
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  have offit targets, make sure that you have stops in place, protect yourself
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  and just know that like the trend is up, it's it's okay to lean
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  in. And if it's not, there's nothing wrong with the with with an
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  account you know, invested in treasuries, it's earning five in a order right
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  now. Yeah, so you should take what you can get. Yeah,
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  I think that, you know, like, especially right now, we're definitely
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  uh seems like we're a little bit extended. We're near the top of a
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  range. If stagflation does hold true that you know, this range could be
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  you know, this could be like the upper limit for the next ten twelve
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  years. Now. Obviously, if it breaks through and runs, that's why
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  you have profit targets, and then that's why you have stops. If it
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  rolls over and things go back down. You know, you get out and
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  you wait for another buying opportunity. So discipline is what drives success, you
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  know, like in any investment strategy. And then you know, your ability
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  to stick to your strategy regardless of what's going on. I think that that's
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  the thing a lot of investors have a lot of trouble is you know,
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  oh, this one's not working for the last you know, six months,
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  so we need to abandoned it, right, And the picture is much bigger
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  than six months, and we need to remember that, especially when we're being
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  when we're risk managing, right, because at the end of the day,
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  we're just trying to offer a superior risk adjusted return. And what that means
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  is is sometimes you know what, we're gonna be wrong. Yeah, but
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  that's okay, all right. So I mean, should you be in the
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  market at this point? It's always said that stocks climb on a wool of
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  worry, right, Yeah. I don't think there's any issue with being in
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  the market. I think it's just having an investment strategy with an exit strategy,
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  whether it's on the upside or the downside. You you know, like
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  making sure that you have a plan that you're following the now. I wouldn't.
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  I wouldn't necessarily say say, oh my gosh, like we should go
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  all in right now in the specific sector or anything. But I think,
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  you know, volatility is around the corner. I think it's been uted for
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  a while now. Next year is an election year, so there's they're playing
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  the dollar cost averaging game. When you're sitting in cash or sitting in treasuries
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  at five to five and quarter or five and a half to build a position
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  over the next twelve eighteen months isn't a bad thing. And if you're going
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  all in, make sure you have an exit plan. All right? I
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  like that? All right, Eddie, it's always great having you on.
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  So tell us where do we find you? How do we connect with you
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  on the web? Yeah, the Indian Staying got to tactive wealth dot com
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  slash Eddie Gifford. You know, you could also just google Eddie Gifford and
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  I'll be right there at the top of the list. And you know,
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  we're excited to talk to anybody who's looking for a differing opinion of what you
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  can do with your money out there. All right, Well, we need
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  that. That's for sure, Hey, you've got a question for Eddie myself.
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  K l at Kerryluts dot com is the email. Make sure you go
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  over to the site Financial Survival Network dot com and sign up for a free
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  newsletter and you can click right through to Eddie's Eddie, We'll be talking to
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  you again next month and see what they've got in store for us. Then,
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  so's we got to appreciate Carry. You have a good one. Thanks
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  for listening to Carry Lenz's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times.
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  For the latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network
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  now more than ever,