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Taiwan is about America, not China | Jerm Warfare · UK Column Radio

0:30
Speaker 1: My name is Jim. This is germ warfare, the battle
0:33
Speaker 1: of ideas. My good friend calls ah, thank you for
0:37
Speaker 1: joining me in the trenches anytime. Anytime I say good friend,
0:43
Speaker 1: because both you and I personally are paid by a shushiking.
0:49
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, My my check hasn't cleared the
0:52
Speaker 2: nail yet. I'm still waiting for my check to clear. So,
0:55
Speaker 2: President She, if you're watching this, please please make sure
1:00
Speaker 2: to expedite my checks.
1:02
Speaker 1: Did you see how he and Trump uh did the
1:07
Speaker 1: whole theater a few days ago and Trump completely looked
1:10
Speaker 1: out of place?
1:12
Speaker 2: She?
1:13
Speaker 3: I mean that's just true. I mean I try.
1:15
Speaker 2: I think Trump is trying to create a scene so
1:18
Speaker 2: like an opportunity for a photo op, because he's really
1:22
Speaker 2: trying to put the Epstein file behind him and you
1:25
Speaker 2: know the failure and straight over her moves. This is
1:28
Speaker 2: a chance for him to play the world leader, right like, Look,
1:31
Speaker 2: China respect me. They put out all these kids waving flowers.
1:36
Speaker 2: That means I must be important.
1:38
Speaker 1: No, no, But what I mean is you say photo
1:41
Speaker 1: But if you look at the photos, Xi Jinping looks
1:44
Speaker 1: like he's playing the beta game of chess.
1:47
Speaker 2: Well, I do like the part where during the when
1:52
Speaker 2: when they're having the reception for him, the inspection of
1:55
Speaker 2: the honor guard, and Trump is like acting, He's showing
1:59
Speaker 2: she's you being around like there was a like she
2:04
Speaker 2: was a host and showing around like a very typical Trump.
2:08
Speaker 2: Trump would that that was hilarious.
2:10
Speaker 1: And Trump spoke about false food while she j Ping
2:13
Speaker 1: spoke about geopolitical future.
2:17
Speaker 2: I mean, look, this whole thing was the last minute
2:20
Speaker 2: thing the Trump administration. They requested so before Trump came
2:27
Speaker 2: to China, Foreign Minister Iran came to town. And now
2:32
Speaker 2: you know Putin was just in Beijing. Trump those plan
2:37
Speaker 2: those visit properly were planned weighing in advance. But we
2:40
Speaker 2: know Trump. This is this, this visit by Trump. It
2:45
Speaker 2: was first announced by the United States. Now he keeps
2:48
Speaker 2: us saying I'm coming, I'm coming. Uh. He already delayed
2:51
Speaker 2: it from March till now. So this is a this
2:54
Speaker 2: is something that Trump always wanted.
2:58
Speaker 1: Well, this is an interesting observe because people like to
3:02
Speaker 1: try and play the two up against each other. Who's
3:04
Speaker 1: got the better hand, you know, who's playing their cards right?
3:10
Speaker 1: But Trump went to China, Chiji Ping didn't go to America.
3:17
Speaker 3: That's right, and this is.
3:19
Speaker 1: Wait wait wait wait, and okay. Trump took some of
3:23
Speaker 1: his you know, biggest players with him. He took Elon
3:28
Speaker 1: and over what over fifty percent of Tesla's are made
3:32
Speaker 1: in China. And he took Tim Cook and the majority
3:35
Speaker 1: of all Apple products also made in China.
3:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he called Tim Cook Tim Apple. I thought
3:41
Speaker 2: that was hilarious. And I mean he took who is
3:45
Speaker 2: who of American oligarcs of the trip. But I don't
3:50
Speaker 2: think they have much to show for it because the
3:53
Speaker 2: trip just don't seem very organized on the American side.
3:57
Speaker 2: They they this is something that Trump wants it for
4:00
Speaker 2: a photo op opportunity, but not really anything else. So
4:04
Speaker 2: if you look at the I mean, compared to the
4:07
Speaker 2: Russian delegation that was just in China, Putin took all
4:11
Speaker 2: like the top government officials and like all the they're
4:15
Speaker 2: already to sign deals. And Trump took what his his son,
4:20
Speaker 2: and his daughter in law and and and just a
4:23
Speaker 2: bunch of American top executives. You know, it doesn't seem
4:28
Speaker 2: like uh, you know, at least from Beijing port of view,
4:31
Speaker 2: it didn't seem like they were very serious.
4:35
Speaker 1: So what was the point.
4:37
Speaker 2: Well, I think the point is for Trump to look
4:39
Speaker 2: good Trump. Trump is looking for a photo op opportunity
4:43
Speaker 2: to distract people back home from a Epstein file to
4:48
Speaker 2: the failure industry or ho boos this. This is a
4:53
Speaker 2: I think for for Trump, it's more important for him
4:57
Speaker 2: for his personal opinion. For example, Trump brought up the
5:01
Speaker 2: fact that Hi Jimpin called US a declining power. I
5:05
Speaker 2: think nobody would have like nobody was even thinking of
5:10
Speaker 2: that way. Like she is the one who actually brought
5:13
Speaker 2: out the fact that she Jimpin called US a declining power.
5:17
Speaker 3: I was actually surprised by.
5:18
Speaker 2: That because I thought, you a Chinese leader usually not
5:21
Speaker 2: undiplomatic like that. What that later, what I realized is
5:27
Speaker 2: because she gimp spoke about the Soucidities track, which is
5:31
Speaker 2: a concept that was first coined by American Harvard professor
5:37
Speaker 2: Graham Allison. That says, you know, just like the teleplanation
5:42
Speaker 2: war described by Sucidity as a Greek historian writer, you
5:48
Speaker 2: know in a five for hegemony between a status quo
5:54
Speaker 2: power and the rising power. In this analogy is Athens
6:00
Speaker 2: was building an empire at the time, and the.
6:03
Speaker 3: Rising power spared the conflicts.
6:06
Speaker 2: Is inevitable. What Jijinpin said was like, and actually, no,
6:12
Speaker 2: we can avoid the trap, right, like, we don't have
6:15
Speaker 2: to fall into the trap. We can't avoid the conflict.
6:18
Speaker 2: But I think what happened is Trump doesn't quite understand it,
6:22
Speaker 2: because I doubt Trump meets sucidities or even understand how
6:27
Speaker 2: to pronounce sucidities. So he had to have somebody to
6:30
Speaker 2: explain to him what the jig was talking about. And
6:33
Speaker 2: then when it was explained to Trump or Trump heard,
6:37
Speaker 2: was oh, so the Xijinpin in China is a rising
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Speaker 2: power and we are the declining power. So Jiji power
6:45
Speaker 2: United States a declining power. So that's what he focused on. Now,
6:49
Speaker 2: nobody would have focused on that until Trump calls it out.
6:54
Speaker 2: But of course Trump just uses this opportunity to do
6:57
Speaker 2: a spin to make himself look good. He said, oh, yeah, yes,
7:01
Speaker 2: Jimpin was correct, because Jimpin was calling the declining America
7:06
Speaker 2: because Sleepy Joe, my predecessor, he made America decline. I'm here.
7:11
Speaker 2: I made America great again because you know, look, look
7:14
Speaker 2: they love me here. They greet me with flowers, and
7:17
Speaker 2: you know, like they treat me as a world leader.
7:20
Speaker 2: I made America creed. So for Trump, it's all about his
7:25
Speaker 2: own personal glory, right. He doesn't really care about America,
7:29
Speaker 2: he he. He rather that America would look bad to
7:34
Speaker 2: make himself look good. You know. This is why he
7:37
Speaker 2: even kind of alluded to the fact that she Jinpin
7:41
Speaker 2: was calling America declining power, which I don't actually, I
7:44
Speaker 2: don't think that was Cijinp's original point. GIMP's original poise
7:48
Speaker 2: is like, let's not get you into a conflict.
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Speaker 1: The idea of a declining power or rising power is
7:54
Speaker 1: in itself interesting because China is exceptionally powerful, and I
7:59
Speaker 1: wonder where the the descriptive rising power comes in.
8:06
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's again, it's the whole socidity trapped
8:10
Speaker 2: businesses is American concept is brought up by American Harvard
8:15
Speaker 2: historian Graham Allison. The American mentality is still very much
8:20
Speaker 2: zero sum. So for us to win, for America to win,
8:24
Speaker 2: everybody have to lose. And their their idea of competition
8:29
Speaker 2: is a talenty of heart and style competition where they
8:32
Speaker 2: literally take a baseboat back to the kneecap their components,
8:37
Speaker 2: their their competitors.
8:39
Speaker 3: That's that's what they're used to.
8:40
Speaker 2: So this is why they even when Shejpe says, okay,
8:43
Speaker 2: let's not have conflict, and the only thing that can
8:46
Speaker 2: hear is, wait a minute, did they just call us
8:48
Speaker 2: a declining power? You know, it's hard to how do
8:52
Speaker 2: you communicate with people like that? But that's that's just
8:56
Speaker 2: what it is.
8:57
Speaker 1: What do you think? I don't know how to ask this. Okay,
9:01
Speaker 1: it's more rhetorical, I guess, But what do you think
9:04
Speaker 1: chi Jinping actually thinks?
9:08
Speaker 2: You know what? Let me let me attume my antenna
9:12
Speaker 2: in my head so I can. I'm not rhetorical, quis
9:17
Speaker 2: watch well, Look, nobody knows what things right as much
9:21
Speaker 2: as I would not know what you think.
9:26
Speaker 1: But it's it's more, it's more conjecture. It's like us,
9:29
Speaker 1: we know we kind of know what Trump thinks because
9:31
Speaker 1: he tells us. So just for a bit of balance,
9:37
Speaker 1: what do we think chi jing pink things? Does he?
9:39
Speaker 1: I wonder if he sits down and looks at at
9:42
Speaker 1: the theater of of the Trump politics and goes, let's
9:46
Speaker 1: just entertain it.
9:48
Speaker 2: I think that's what they did, the humor Trump. You know,
9:51
Speaker 2: they throw him a couple of balls. They agreed to
9:54
Speaker 2: purchase some Boing airplanes. But but what Chijin Ping always said.
9:59
Speaker 2: You know, he's being very consistent. He said, the world
10:02
Speaker 2: is big enough for both China and United States. I mean,
10:05
Speaker 2: China is on about conflict avoidance and they don't want
10:09
Speaker 2: an outbreak of hostility between two nuclear powers. But that's
10:14
Speaker 2: something that you I don't know why it is so
10:17
Speaker 2: hard for American leadership to understand. It's like, not everybody
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Speaker 2: is out to try to go after your top hegement spot,
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Speaker 2: but America is like the gall in the Lord of
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Speaker 2: rain right, it's holding this hegement status like my precious.
10:39
Speaker 2: So it's hard to deal with somebody like that.
10:47
Speaker 1: When the journalists, did you see that that club, he
10:51
Speaker 1: was asking Trump about Taiwan and you're standing right next
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Speaker 1: to Extacion thing and Trump completely ignored the question. And
11:00
Speaker 1: it was very very obvious. Now under any other circumstance,
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Speaker 1: Trump wouldn't avoid such a question.
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Speaker 2: Trump. You know, Trump was on his best behavior on
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Speaker 2: this trip. You know, he knew when to shut up
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Speaker 2: and and because he just he would just know like
11:18
Speaker 2: these kind of baby questions. Uh, you know, it's it's
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Speaker 2: it's hard to have a good answer, so so better
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Speaker 2: just ignore it.
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Speaker 3: This is actually much better than his predecessor.
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Speaker 2: By the way, I give Trump credit words to you know,
11:33
Speaker 2: because this happened to Joe Biden.
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Speaker 3: What Joe Biden met or was.
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Speaker 2: Scheduled to meet with in San Francisco, and right after
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Speaker 2: he was interviewed by American television crew on live television.
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Speaker 2: They ask him would the United States come to military
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Speaker 2: aid of Taiwan in the conflict with China? And Biden
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Speaker 2: just says yes without a hitch and you can just
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Speaker 2: say see all the aids, White House aid, the Iron
12:00
Speaker 2: and go like, oh, dude, this guy, this guy just
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Speaker 2: like blow away decade long American strategic andiguity on live television,
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Speaker 2: and later the White House have to walk back that
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Speaker 2: statements like, oh, he didn't understand the question.
12:16
Speaker 3: What do you mean he didn't understand the question?
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Speaker 2: You give see a sinile old man that that barely
12:21
Speaker 2: understand what's going on. But so so in that respect,
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Speaker 2: you know, Trump handled it much better than than sleepy Joe.
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Speaker 3: It's just just like, don't answer, just ignore it.
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Speaker 1: I like how you how you said American strategic ambiguity,
12:40
Speaker 1: that's what what's what's ambiguous about about uish foreign policy?
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Speaker 2: Well? That's actually that was the official term for it.
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Speaker 2: The term is like, Okay, the United States is not
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Speaker 2: gonna overtly support Taiwan independence, but you US is also
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Speaker 2: not going to have an open commitment to back up
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Speaker 2: to say, like you will back High one in a
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Speaker 2: military conflict. So to keep both side guessing, to keep
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Speaker 2: both mainland China and Taiwan guessing what the United States
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Speaker 2: would do in such an event, this is this is
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Speaker 2: to preserve ultimately give United States more options to respond.
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Speaker 2: It doesn't lock in the US to any kind of
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Speaker 2: endgame scenario, right, It's it's not committing itself to any
13:33
Speaker 2: particular outcome. But you know, Biden just kind of blew
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Speaker 2: through it. It's just yes, yes, we would you know,
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Speaker 2: we will get into a war, and like god, you
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Speaker 2: don't say that.
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Speaker 1: Yeah. Just for context again, called and now you're not
13:52
Speaker 1: chatting about this many times. And let's assume that somebody
13:56
Speaker 1: listening right now hasn't heard on previous conversations. Just for
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Speaker 1: very quick cont what is Taiwan's history with the mainland
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Speaker 1: and why is it so sensitive?
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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I like to remind people most
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Speaker 2: of your government, official government policy, including the government official
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Speaker 2: government policy of the United States, is that there's only
14:17
Speaker 2: one China, and it's representative government resides in Beijing, and
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Speaker 2: they recognize China's claim that Taiwan is part of China.
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Speaker 2: That has been pretty much the official government policy of
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Speaker 2: the majority of the government in this world.
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Speaker 1: And the UN.
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Speaker 2: Taiwan is not in UN is it Taiwan? You know,
14:43
Speaker 2: back in nineteen seventy so quick quick history. Taiwan is
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Speaker 2: this island province of China that was annexed by Japan
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Speaker 2: during the first sign of Japanese War after eighteen eighteen
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Speaker 2: ninety four eighteen ninety five, and you remained in Japanese
15:03
Speaker 2: columny for fifty years until the end of World War Two.
15:07
Speaker 2: You know, as part of the war, the World War
15:10
Speaker 2: Two settlement. During the before the war ended, there was
15:14
Speaker 2: something called post On Declaration that was made by all
15:17
Speaker 2: the major power at the time, Soviet Union, UK, United
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Speaker 2: States and China that says Japan must give up all
15:25
Speaker 2: the territory.
15:26
Speaker 3: Occupied, so that includes Taiwan.
15:30
Speaker 2: So Taiwan was returned back to China after the war
15:34
Speaker 2: in nineteen forty five, but right afterwards as Chinese Civil
15:39
Speaker 2: War broke out on mainland China, and that.
15:43
Speaker 3: When that does settle.
15:45
Speaker 2: The communist side won the civil war, and the former
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Speaker 2: Chinese government, the Nationalist Government of China, they they escaped
15:53
Speaker 2: from mainland China and they moved to Taiwan. So then
15:58
Speaker 2: for the next twenty years, United States and many Western
16:01
Speaker 2: government pretended the government that was in Taiwan was in
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Speaker 2: fact the only legitimate government.
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Speaker 3: Of all China.
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Speaker 2: So this is why the Juan Kai Chess government on
16:13
Speaker 2: kaiwand occupy China seed on the UN Security Council up
16:18
Speaker 2: to nineteen seventy one, and in nineteen seventy one there
16:22
Speaker 2: was a general vote in UN. The UN resolution was
16:28
Speaker 2: to throw out the Juan Kai Chi regime from UN
16:32
Speaker 2: and give the China's UNC back to PRC People's Republic
16:38
Speaker 2: of China, the government in Beijing. So that is that
16:43
Speaker 2: is a reality that has been the case since nineteen
16:46
Speaker 2: seventy one. You know, so most of the United States
16:49
Speaker 2: at one point they did maintain an embassy on Kaiwan,
16:54
Speaker 2: but then us result of Nixon's visit to China, and
16:59
Speaker 2: as a result out of normalization of ties between China
17:02
Speaker 2: and the United States, US no longer have an embassy
17:05
Speaker 2: on Taipei, but they only have an embassy in Beijing.
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Speaker 3: So this is this is like a lot of the Western.
17:15
Speaker 2: Media, what have you believe? That Taiwan is a is
17:19
Speaker 2: a separate entity. It is a country. But what they
17:23
Speaker 2: don't tell you is most of their government don't even
17:26
Speaker 2: recognize that Taiwan is a country by the mere fact
17:28
Speaker 2: that they do not maintain embassy in Taipei. They don't
17:32
Speaker 2: recognize the government on Taiwan.
17:36
Speaker 1: Yeah but okay, so but we're all sitting now with
17:39
Speaker 1: Taiwan today as a country. If you talk to any
17:43
Speaker 1: average joy yourself of course, as a country. They even
17:45
Speaker 1: have a president.
17:47
Speaker 2: Okay, so again you can call yourself a president if
17:54
Speaker 2: it's not recognize, if no country recognized. I mean, I
17:57
Speaker 2: can call myself a president of my country.
18:00
Speaker 3: There are guys.
18:01
Speaker 2: Who who who proclaim their own countries. You know that
18:04
Speaker 2: there's a I think there is a country called Sealand
18:07
Speaker 2: and there's also there was a guy a UK, a
18:11
Speaker 2: British guy who uh claimed his own principality on this
18:16
Speaker 2: oil rig out in the I forgot where there's North
18:20
Speaker 2: Sea or or but anyway, so a lot of people
18:24
Speaker 2: do there. There are quite few people who could do that.
18:26
Speaker 2: There's a guy in Australia also, you know, he even
18:30
Speaker 2: issued his stamps and stuff.
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Speaker 3: But it doesn't mean it's a country.
18:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, like because no other if no other country recognize it,
18:37
Speaker 2: you can, you can. You can call yourself a country.
18:40
Speaker 2: You can. You can give yourself whatever title you want,
18:43
Speaker 2: president or king. Uh. But it needs recognition right in,
18:48
Speaker 2: needs recognition from the others. That's where legitimacy come from.
18:52
Speaker 1: But there seems to be a strategic location of Taiwan
18:59
Speaker 1: for Western interests.
19:01
Speaker 2: Well, of course, I mean General Douglas MacArthur, US commander
19:06
Speaker 2: during the current war, he actually said Taiwan is an
19:09
Speaker 2: unthinkable aircraft carrier all anchored off the coast of mainland China,
19:16
Speaker 2: and that what that's essentially the road Taiwan played throughout
19:20
Speaker 2: the Cold War. US had about sixty thousand troops rotating
19:24
Speaker 2: through Taiwan during the Vietnam War era, and he actually
19:28
Speaker 2: placed nuclear tip missiles in Taiwan, pointing and mainland China.
19:33
Speaker 2: So but that changed again when Nixon visited China, so
19:37
Speaker 2: all the US troop pulled out, the nukes got pulled out.
19:41
Speaker 2: That formed the basis of the current China US relationship
19:47
Speaker 2: was the Shank Joint Shanghai Communicates, signed by Richard Nixon
19:52
Speaker 2: and Chinese Premier Zoan Lai in Shanghai in nineteen seventy one.
19:56
Speaker 2: And part of the Shanghai Communicate is what unit the
20:00
Speaker 2: States called it recognized of one China principle. What this
20:03
Speaker 2: says is the United States recognized that Taiwan issue is
20:07
Speaker 2: a problem to be resolved by Chinese people on both
20:09
Speaker 2: sides of the Taiwan straight and the United States recognized
20:14
Speaker 2: that that recognize there's only one China with its representative
20:20
Speaker 2: in Beijing, and the United States recognized that Taiwan is
20:25
Speaker 2: part of China.
20:26
Speaker 3: And this is the US President.
20:28
Speaker 2: Jamie Carton repeated that on television when US and China
20:34
Speaker 2: formally established ties in nineteen seventy I think it was
20:37
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy eight.
20:40
Speaker 1: So, yeah, you mentioned World War two earlier, and so
20:46
Speaker 1: just to confirm what you're saying. In nineteen forty three,
20:48
Speaker 1: there was the Chiro Declaration designed by the US, UK
20:51
Speaker 1: and China, where they all three explicitly stated the Taiwan
20:57
Speaker 1: should be quite restored the Republic of China that was
21:01
Speaker 1: off to Japan's defeat. And then the Potsdam Proclamation, which
21:04
Speaker 1: is ninety forty five reaffirmed the Chira Declaration and then
21:08
Speaker 1: Japan itself through through its own defeat agreed.
21:14
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yeah, that's just how it is. I mean,
21:18
Speaker 2: the post war the whole institution of u N is
21:22
Speaker 2: basically a post war arrangement after World War Two, where
21:26
Speaker 2: the victors set themselves up as to be the permanent
21:31
Speaker 2: member of Security Council, you know, like the United States,
21:35
Speaker 2: well then Soviet Union, China UK, right, and France the
21:41
Speaker 2: five permanent member of Security Council. There were the victors
21:45
Speaker 2: the word I had to have friends, I have to
21:49
Speaker 2: So these are the victors of the World War two,
21:52
Speaker 2: and that's why they have to have a vitual power
21:55
Speaker 2: on the UN Security Council.
21:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Carl, did you did you know that Taiwan's
22:01
Speaker 1: horn population is bigger than that of the mainland's horn population.
22:07
Speaker 2: I mean percentage wise, percentage wise, So so Taiwan is
22:12
Speaker 2: like ninety eight percent Han, right, and it was two
22:15
Speaker 2: percent indigenous population, whereas Maine and China has more ethnic
22:21
Speaker 2: different ethnicities. So also like the percentage of Han population
22:26
Speaker 2: on Maine, I think you see either ninety or ninety
22:28
Speaker 2: one percent, So you know, not percentage wise by one
22:33
Speaker 2: is more hot than than Maine China.
22:35
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, but the point is that Taiwan per capita
22:39
Speaker 1: is more Chinese for sure.
22:48
Speaker 2: And but but as we find out on the you know,
22:52
Speaker 2: our trip to China.
22:53
Speaker 3: Remember there are different degrees of the Chinese.
22:57
Speaker 2: There's there's a Hong Kong, you know, there's Shanghai, and
23:01
Speaker 2: there's very levels.
23:02
Speaker 3: There are different different levels of the Chinese.
23:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, but the reason why I'm asking you about Taiwan
23:09
Speaker 1: is because it's one of the primary talking points the
23:15
Speaker 1: US and Taiwan. What would happen actually if the mainland,
23:22
Speaker 1: let's say, took back Taiwan, and conversely, what's wrong with
23:26
Speaker 1: just leaving it as is?
23:28
Speaker 2: Well, So right now, I mean you practice the mainland
23:32
Speaker 2: policy right now is if you don't declare formal independence,
23:38
Speaker 2: then everything we can, we can, everything is on the table.
23:42
Speaker 2: We can, we can talk about unification, or we can
23:45
Speaker 2: talk about economic reintegration. As long as you don't declare
23:50
Speaker 2: formal independence, be okay with that. So that is a
23:54
Speaker 2: red line to by China. So in essence, the status
24:00
Speaker 2: quo that have continued since nineteen forty nine, China is
24:07
Speaker 2: okay with the current status quo. They but what they
24:11
Speaker 2: do not want is they do not want the government
24:14
Speaker 2: on Hiwan to declare formal independence like that would trigger
24:18
Speaker 2: the Chinese military response. This is, at least according to
24:23
Speaker 2: the Chinese government, that that is a red line. What
24:28
Speaker 2: would happen if well, first of all, first of all,
24:34
Speaker 2: Taiwan being a US client state, they would never declare
24:39
Speaker 2: formal independence unless they've been pushed by the United States
24:44
Speaker 2: to do so.
24:45
Speaker 3: Because you know that it just does not happen, Like
24:49
Speaker 3: they just.
24:50
Speaker 2: Will not move make such a big boat move without
24:54
Speaker 2: explicit approval and maybe encouragement from the United States. And
25:00
Speaker 2: what the Trump trips, this one and the previous one,
25:04
Speaker 2: what the Chinese leadership have told him like, look, Taiwan
25:08
Speaker 2: is our red line. We don't want you to push it.
25:11
Speaker 2: We don't want you to push it in below pumpers.
25:13
Speaker 2: And this is why Trump made the comment later after
25:17
Speaker 2: his trip when he was asked by an American reporter about Taiwan,
25:21
Speaker 2: what are we going to do? And Trump says, look,
25:25
Speaker 2: they're very close to the mainland China, They're very far
25:29
Speaker 2: away from us, you know, so what do you expect
25:33
Speaker 2: me to do about it?
25:34
Speaker 3: They're just very far from.
25:36
Speaker 2: Us, which is the truth, which is just stating the
25:38
Speaker 2: reality US would have to cross the entire Pacific Ocean
25:42
Speaker 2: to fight China on the other side, whereas you know
25:45
Speaker 2: China is, this is on china store steps. So I
25:49
Speaker 2: think I don't think. I don't think any kind of
25:52
Speaker 2: military action is imminent currently in the Taiwan strade. I mean,
25:58
Speaker 2: that's basically the sentiment both sides of Taiwan straight because
26:04
Speaker 2: I don't think the Taiwan government at this time is
26:08
Speaker 2: about to just certainly say we're gonna we're gonna hold
26:11
Speaker 2: a referendum on independence, or we're gonna we're gonna declare
26:15
Speaker 2: formal independence, because even the current leader of Taiwan, who's
26:19
Speaker 2: partly platform explicitly mentioned Taiwan independence as an ultimate goal,
26:25
Speaker 2: has come on and said, look, we don't need to
26:29
Speaker 2: declare formal independence because the Republic of China on Taiwan
26:33
Speaker 2: is already independent since nineteen eleven, so we don't have
26:38
Speaker 2: to be declared. So I mean, like that's way of
26:41
Speaker 2: his weasel out of this question, and so which means
26:45
Speaker 2: like they're basically a status quo party in essence, they
26:49
Speaker 2: just like to poke the panda once a while for
26:54
Speaker 2: domestic election purposes, but like they're not really serious about
26:59
Speaker 2: changing the status quo as is, you know, especially if
27:03
Speaker 2: they don't have the encouragement and approval on the United States.
27:07
Speaker 1: So basically, what you're saying called is that Taiwan will
27:11
Speaker 1: go back to China if America decides.
27:16
Speaker 3: So that's a good question because essentially.
27:19
Speaker 2: The whole Taiwan issue is not really an issue between
27:22
Speaker 2: the island of Taiwan and mainland China. This is really
27:25
Speaker 2: an issue between China and the United States. The resolution
27:30
Speaker 2: ultimate resolution of the Taiwan issue depending on the power
27:36
Speaker 2: balance between US and China. So I think right now,
27:39
Speaker 2: the most likely the status quo will persist for quite
27:44
Speaker 2: some time. But I think what we could look forward
27:48
Speaker 2: to is eventually the gravitational pull of the Chinese economy
27:53
Speaker 2: and Chinese culture is such that, you know, Taiwan will
27:58
Speaker 2: gradually gravitate tour mainland. Just this is just by physical proximity,
28:05
Speaker 2: cultural proximity, shared common heritage. The things just will happen naturally.
28:12
Speaker 2: And this is why I think, you know, China is
28:15
Speaker 2: playing a long, long term game.
28:16
Speaker 3: They're willing to wait it out. They already waited seventy years.
28:20
Speaker 2: You know, they don't they could wait another ten years,
28:23
Speaker 2: and especially they know at the end of the ten
28:26
Speaker 2: years China will be more powerful. These are the United
28:29
Speaker 2: States because you know, every year that goes by, China
28:33
Speaker 2: rise a little bit more and US declined, the relative
28:39
Speaker 2: decline of the United States goes a little bit more.
28:41
Speaker 2: And so so China in twenty thirty is much going
28:45
Speaker 2: to be much more powerful than China in twenty twenty seven.
28:48
Speaker 2: So China can't afford to wait. The time is on
28:52
Speaker 2: China side.
28:53
Speaker 1: Now, how has China been impacted by the Iranian War?
28:59
Speaker 2: Okay, so like everybody else China, China is impacted because
29:04
Speaker 2: China is ninety eighty six percent self energy self sufficient,
29:10
Speaker 2: which means they import about fourteen percent their primary energy.
29:14
Speaker 3: And out of that.
29:15
Speaker 2: Fourteen percent energy that import, half of that is oil
29:19
Speaker 2: crude oil, and half of the crude oil that China
29:23
Speaker 2: does import is from the Persian Golf. So that's what
29:28
Speaker 2: we're talking about seven percent, So about three point five
29:32
Speaker 2: percent of China's total energy consumption coming from the Persian golf.
29:37
Speaker 3: And that is being basically.
29:40
Speaker 2: A d window to a trickle right now, because before
29:45
Speaker 2: the whole golf. Persian Golf reached and output about twenty
29:49
Speaker 2: million barrels of oil per day, and right now the
29:53
Speaker 2: only oil coming out is basically through the Saudi pipeline
29:57
Speaker 2: that goes from the Persian Golf to the Red Sea
30:01
Speaker 2: and shift from the Red Sea port of Yamboo, and
30:03
Speaker 2: that's about I think the latest figure was about four
30:07
Speaker 2: point five million barrels of oil still transiting through Red
30:12
Speaker 2: Sea a day. So you went from twenty million barrels
30:15
Speaker 2: of oil to like four point five million barrels of oil.
30:19
Speaker 2: There are some Iranian oil that's still getting through, but
30:24
Speaker 2: right now this is why Trump is doing that blockade
30:28
Speaker 2: on the blockade thing. So the US Navy is playing
30:31
Speaker 2: like cat and mouse game with Iranian oil tankers. They
30:36
Speaker 2: so the Uranian oil tankers when they come out of
30:38
Speaker 2: the straight or moose, they would have drunk straight into
30:42
Speaker 2: the American blockade line.
30:44
Speaker 3: So instead what they do is they hug the coastline
30:48
Speaker 3: and they just stay in the territorial.
30:50
Speaker 2: Water of Iran until the path through into the territorial
30:53
Speaker 2: water of Pakistan. But because the United States at this
30:58
Speaker 2: point is it has you know, do not want to
31:01
Speaker 2: widen the war, so they don't want to violate the
31:04
Speaker 2: territory of integrity of Pakistan, so they allow that to happen.
31:07
Speaker 2: So the Uranian crew right now is traversing through Pakistan
31:11
Speaker 2: and then Indian territorial waters.
31:14
Speaker 3: It's at the big gap of open water.
31:17
Speaker 2: Between Indian and Sri Lankan territorial water and the Strait
31:21
Speaker 2: of Malacca. There's a big open space of international water.
31:26
Speaker 2: So the area around Sri Lanka is where the US
31:29
Speaker 2: Navy is doing some serious interdiction. So now, but before
31:34
Speaker 2: the blockade, there are some Iranian oil tankers what's going
31:38
Speaker 2: through and currently we know the estimate is about there's
31:42
Speaker 2: already one hundred and fifty five million barrels of Uranian
31:46
Speaker 2: oil in the South China Sea, you know, waiting to
31:49
Speaker 2: be shipped to the Chinese ports. So China they also
31:53
Speaker 2: took took advantage of the low oil prices before the war.
31:58
Speaker 2: There was a four years when the oil price was
32:00
Speaker 2: at the historically low level, so China took that opportunity
32:04
Speaker 2: to do stockpile. So currently China has the world's largest
32:10
Speaker 2: inventory of oil reserve. The Chinese oil inventory is about
32:16
Speaker 2: one point five billion barrels of oil and which is
32:21
Speaker 2: bigger than US, Europe, Japan all combined. So China, even
32:30
Speaker 2: if all oil shipments stopped coming to China, China will
32:33
Speaker 2: public still cruise for another three to six months. But
32:37
Speaker 2: China is still getting oil from Russia, from Africa, from
32:41
Speaker 2: other places. So China is affected. China is not as
32:46
Speaker 2: affected as much as the other countries like US, ally
32:51
Speaker 2: countries like Japan, Korea, Philippines. Japan has a little bit
32:56
Speaker 2: of a buffer. They also have a large oil reserve.
33:00
Speaker 2: But but countries like countries like South Korea or island
33:06
Speaker 2: like Japan, I like like Taiwan, they they all heavily
33:09
Speaker 2: depend on the Uranian oil because they I mean the
33:13
Speaker 2: Persian golf oil because they were prohibited from doing business
33:18
Speaker 2: with Russia. You know, they have to apply a bye
33:21
Speaker 2: by the Western sanction of Russians. This is why United
33:24
Speaker 2: States have to lift the have to put a waiver
33:28
Speaker 2: on the Russian oil and gas in order for their
33:32
Speaker 2: allies to access those resources, because they realize they're screwing
33:36
Speaker 2: them more than they st are screwing China, because China
33:39
Speaker 2: can still China is still buying Russian oil and gas,
33:44
Speaker 2: and and so so China is being impacted China is
33:48
Speaker 2: uh still getting hurt, but China is getting hurt a
33:51
Speaker 2: lot less than other countries around the globe.
33:56
Speaker 3: That's that's that's the truth.
33:58
Speaker 2: And this is why when according to the White House
34:03
Speaker 2: that China supposedly agreed with us on the principle that
34:10
Speaker 2: that the shipping through straight or Homo should should be free,
34:14
Speaker 2: should be like people shouldn't need to pay a toll,
34:16
Speaker 2: and and the straight or Homo should be open. But again,
34:21
Speaker 2: China is just stating a wish. Of course, China wanted
34:23
Speaker 2: to want to go back to the pre war level,
34:25
Speaker 2: because if China wants has its way, there will be
34:28
Speaker 2: no war.
34:29
Speaker 3: But a wish is a wish.
34:33
Speaker 2: It doesn't mean that's going to happen because right now,
34:35
Speaker 2: you're wrong, has actual military control of the trade or boost.
34:40
Speaker 2: Nobody is going to be able to challenge that, not
34:43
Speaker 2: United States for sure, and uh and and by China
34:48
Speaker 2: agreeing that that traffic should be open, it doesn't mean
34:52
Speaker 2: they're going to lift a finger to help United States
34:56
Speaker 2: to resolve the issue, because especially not to resolve term
35:00
Speaker 2: that's advantage to the United States because actually Wran is
35:03
Speaker 2: also a friendly country to China. So right now China's
35:11
Speaker 2: main diplomatic effort is still working with Pakistan to host
35:18
Speaker 2: the peace negotiation between the United States and you wrong.
35:22
Speaker 2: This is why the Pakistan foreign minister is going to
35:24
Speaker 2: be in China again, probably to talk about this.
35:29
Speaker 1: So who's got the upper hand at the moment in almost.
35:33
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, Uran definitely has the upper hand.
35:37
Speaker 2: They got they got the straight lockdown, but of course
35:45
Speaker 2: Trump didn't want to give them a complete victory. That's
35:49
Speaker 2: why they are now blockading Iranian oil tankers. The idea is,
35:54
Speaker 2: if you don't allow anybody else to sell oil, then
35:57
Speaker 2: we're not going to allow you to sell any oil either.
36:01
Speaker 2: Uh So, now now Trump is playing a game of chicken.
36:05
Speaker 2: But again this is a this is a bad situation.
36:08
Speaker 2: But but for you Wan though, that's their best car.
36:11
Speaker 2: Their best car is their military control of Iran. It's
36:15
Speaker 2: not like the thing is Americans they always like look
36:20
Speaker 2: at things like, oh who's winning, who is who is
36:22
Speaker 2: coming on top? Right now?
36:23
Speaker 3: Everybody is hurting.
36:25
Speaker 2: Most people around the world is hurting, like price has
36:28
Speaker 2: gung up everywhere, like I mean Indonesia, there's there's already.
36:33
Speaker 2: Because what people don't realize is how modern civilization is
36:38
Speaker 2: dependent on oil. And you know, like plastic, plastic come
36:43
Speaker 2: from from refined petroleum and fertilizers, sulfur, everything, everything come
36:52
Speaker 2: from is a somewhat oil or gas derivetive. So you
36:57
Speaker 2: should cut that off. You're gonna You're gonna make it's
37:00
Speaker 2: difficult for everybody. The price is going to increase worldwide
37:03
Speaker 2: because guess what. Guess what happens you cut off twenty
37:07
Speaker 2: percent of the world's natural gas supply or twenty percent
37:11
Speaker 2: of the world's oil supply. Like when China cannot no
37:15
Speaker 2: longer buy Iranian oil, they will have to buy they
37:18
Speaker 2: will just buy oil file elsewhere. And what it does
37:20
Speaker 2: is just push the price up for everybody. And this
37:25
Speaker 2: is why it even affects Americans, you know, America. The
37:30
Speaker 2: bankruptcy of American farmers of forty five percent this month
37:34
Speaker 2: and seventy five percent of American farmers said they can
37:37
Speaker 2: no longer afford the increasing diesel price and fertilizer.
37:40
Speaker 1: Price, which is probably why China is pushing evs.
37:49
Speaker 3: You got it, You got it.
37:50
Speaker 2: I mean, like the one biggest reason for China's push
37:54
Speaker 2: for electricification across the country is because US Navy has
37:59
Speaker 2: talked about for decades, they're going to choke off China's
38:02
Speaker 2: energy supply through the Strait of Malacca because that's where
38:06
Speaker 2: most of the Middle East and African oil go through
38:11
Speaker 2: through straight.
38:11
Speaker 3: And Molacca up to South China.
38:13
Speaker 2: See. So, so China has been had this long term
38:17
Speaker 2: strategy of developing an ev industry. So they will phase,
38:21
Speaker 2: they will wean their transportation networks from oil. And China
38:27
Speaker 2: is now also rolling out heavy trucks, electrified heavy trucks.
38:32
Speaker 2: They already electrify their train systems, you know, like it's
38:37
Speaker 2: the only thing right now you still depend on oil
38:40
Speaker 2: is jet fuel.
38:41
Speaker 3: But like this is why China.
38:43
Speaker 2: Build a lot of high speed rail network around the
38:47
Speaker 2: country that will take off some of the traffic from
38:50
Speaker 2: from like regional airlines.
38:53
Speaker 3: And so yeah, China is best prepared for a crisis
38:56
Speaker 3: like this.
38:57
Speaker 1: I think I think Gping agreed to about two hundred boeings,
39:02
Speaker 1: and I think Trump originally was hoping that he'd buy
39:05
Speaker 1: about five hundred.
39:08
Speaker 2: Okay, So I think I.
39:10
Speaker 1: Think China was just saying, okay, all right, okay, fine,
39:13
Speaker 1: we'll have some of your boeings.
39:15
Speaker 2: This is again, this is just optics because you know,
39:21
Speaker 2: often which because you would throw some Boying orders. Is
39:25
Speaker 2: for you Trump to claim that he had a victory,
39:28
Speaker 2: he got a deal, he got a great deal for
39:30
Speaker 2: American workers, he made China pay. But the Boying pipeline
39:36
Speaker 2: is actually they're they're incredibly backlog right now. Even with
39:40
Speaker 2: those two hundred Boying planes that China plays, it's going
39:45
Speaker 2: to take them years to be delivered by Boying. And
39:49
Speaker 2: this is just because the Boy's own production bottleneck and
39:52
Speaker 2: and and so, so that the numbers really doesn't matter.
39:56
Speaker 2: It's going to take you know, it's it's doubtful there
40:00
Speaker 2: is a two hundred planes will be delivered by the
40:02
Speaker 2: end of Trump's Trump's presidency at the current at the
40:08
Speaker 2: current production rate of boy.
40:11
Speaker 3: But this is just something. This is like a commitments,
40:14
Speaker 3: like we are.
40:14
Speaker 2: Committed to to to order this two hundred planes from
40:19
Speaker 2: boy that. But again, it's it's just something China throwing
40:24
Speaker 2: a ball to Trump, like here you go. You can't
40:28
Speaker 2: claim victory, you know. But but ultimately, uh, you know,
40:32
Speaker 2: China will try to focus on its own domestic airline
40:38
Speaker 2: airliner production. You know, they're already making the Seed nine nineteen.
40:43
Speaker 2: I think they will probably double their effort to increasing
40:49
Speaker 2: the production of that. But again airline they still take
40:53
Speaker 2: jet the jet fuel is still come from oil. So uh,
40:58
Speaker 2: it's far more likely that they going to expand even
41:01
Speaker 2: more their high speed rail network because that that's run
41:05
Speaker 2: on electricity and electricity can can come from any source.
41:10
Speaker 1: You know, I remember when you and I were flying
41:12
Speaker 1: around China. I think I think we were flying in
41:16
Speaker 1: air buses.
41:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, the China ordered about three hundred and
41:20
Speaker 2: fifty air buses I think last year or like in
41:25
Speaker 2: the last few years. Because this is how this is
41:29
Speaker 2: how China plays off Europe and versus United States. You know,
41:34
Speaker 2: when the when the when the relationship with US worsened,
41:38
Speaker 2: they will just turned to order more air buses and
41:42
Speaker 2: then to play k United States. It will just place
41:45
Speaker 2: more order for going. So so it's like they can
41:48
Speaker 2: go back and forth. And but but China now is
41:52
Speaker 2: producing their own airlines. One of the problems though is
41:56
Speaker 2: they still depending on the United States for the airlineer
42:01
Speaker 2: engines you know from Boeing and ge Partly is because
42:07
Speaker 2: you know, they want to get certification because this is
42:12
Speaker 2: where Europe and Americans they really try to try to
42:17
Speaker 2: monopolize that. The airline industry, especially the production of airlines,
42:22
Speaker 2: because they hold the ultimate choke hold on certifying certain airframes. Right,
42:30
Speaker 2: if they don't give you a certification, that means you
42:33
Speaker 2: can't you know airlineseing, Europe and US, they will not
42:38
Speaker 2: order your planes, no matter how good it is. So
42:41
Speaker 2: what China try to get around that is by okay,
42:44
Speaker 2: well how about we just make the planes, but we
42:46
Speaker 2: use a lot of American parts, we use American engines.
42:49
Speaker 2: You know, whether that will get them certified, who knows.
42:53
Speaker 2: I think if Europe is if US pushed Europe enough,
42:59
Speaker 2: then Europe my certify the Chinese plant Who knows?
43:03
Speaker 1: Speaking of certification, which airport you and I at? Where
43:08
Speaker 1: they where? They confiscated my two power banks.
43:11
Speaker 3: Which I think we're flying from Shanghai to RUNCI.
43:15
Speaker 2: I think I think that that's what happened.
43:17
Speaker 1: It was it was in Shanghai, I think you're right,
43:19
Speaker 1: and and they took my two power banks, and uh,
43:24
Speaker 1: and I was devastated, like what am I going to
43:27
Speaker 1: do now? And then the whole thing became so slow
43:31
Speaker 1: slow down because they were saying, well we could carey
43:35
Speaker 1: it to a rumchi, but you I weren't going to
43:37
Speaker 1: be in a room Chi long enough for me to
43:39
Speaker 1: get the power banks. So I just I just keep
43:41
Speaker 1: just keep them. And then I ended up getting Chinese
43:44
Speaker 1: power banks, which are brilliant. Remember and then and then
43:47
Speaker 1: you and then you're I almost missed the flight.
43:51
Speaker 2: Yeah. So so they do have a different bloyd in
43:55
Speaker 2: China where they want only the air bank, the power
43:59
Speaker 2: bank triple C. Yeah yeah, yeah, but most of the
44:04
Speaker 2: most of the power banks, so outside China, they only
44:08
Speaker 2: have two seas and it's like a double seed. So
44:11
Speaker 2: so like that's where. But they did offer us to
44:15
Speaker 2: to ship it, to ship it to our destination, to
44:18
Speaker 2: our hotel, but we were only going to be in
44:20
Speaker 2: the Unchi for one day and it takes them like
44:23
Speaker 2: two days to ship it. So they were like, okay,
44:25
Speaker 2: that's not gonna work. But thankfully our our handler, our handler,
44:31
Speaker 2: the handler, yes, got us hook us up with some
44:37
Speaker 2: Chinese power banks.
44:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I remember, I remember when you and I
44:42
Speaker 1: decided okay, just let's just leave the bar banks and
44:45
Speaker 1: we literally ran the plane was was full. They were
44:50
Speaker 1: waiting for just you and I.
44:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, we we literally like God, they're just
44:55
Speaker 2: the last call. When they're about to pull the bridge. Yeah.
45:03
Speaker 2: But you know what, like what they also did was,
45:05
Speaker 2: which is very nice, is they when we checked in,
45:08
Speaker 2: they did us, did let us cut cut the line
45:11
Speaker 2: because we're about to be late for our flights, so
45:15
Speaker 2: they did us didn't let us to cut through the
45:17
Speaker 2: line of in front of the other people because you know,
45:20
Speaker 2: and then they had a guy who accompany us to
45:23
Speaker 2: go through everything.
45:25
Speaker 3: So so that was good service.
45:26
Speaker 2: That was that that.
45:27
Speaker 3: You know, they get a minus five points.
45:29
Speaker 2: For confiscating power Bank, but they get a plus ten
45:32
Speaker 2: for like speak, expediting us through the through the lines.
45:36
Speaker 1: But what was funny about the Parbank story is that
45:39
Speaker 1: mine was European certification that didn't allow that on the
45:42
Speaker 1: on their flights.
45:44
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, like that's no good here. European certification,
45:48
Speaker 2: that's no good here.
45:51
Speaker 1: Well on Emirates you can carry anything. Yeah, I'm changed.
45:57
Speaker 1: I don't know.
45:58
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say, you know, I look like EMERSUS
46:02
Speaker 2: great airline. Dubai is a great airport, but I don't
46:05
Speaker 2: know about that, and I don't know about the future
46:09
Speaker 2: because they haven't been able to have to be able
46:12
Speaker 2: to sell oil or gas for a long time.
46:16
Speaker 1: Well as as we joke. Jured everything is in levels.
46:18
Speaker 1: You know, I've I've also flown easy open airlines and
46:20
Speaker 1: they're quite behind, and they're like, what's the pow bank.
46:26
Speaker 1: I'm kidding, I'm kidding.
46:30
Speaker 2: Like that. It's great for big oil companies. Shell just
46:34
Speaker 2: reported their first quarter earning for this year from from
46:38
Speaker 2: from January to March. They double their profit from their
46:42
Speaker 2: last quarter, you know, of course because the oil price
46:44
Speaker 2: jumped up and and that you know, they and that
46:48
Speaker 2: only included their you know, March, because the war really started,
46:52
Speaker 2: uh like cover most of the March. So that means
46:55
Speaker 2: our next quarter earning report, it's gonna go gamebusters.
47:00
Speaker 3: You're gonna be even higher. But everybody, it's like you
47:03
Speaker 3: and me, people like us, we are paying.
47:05
Speaker 2: The price for their record profit because where the one
47:08
Speaker 2: I have to pay pay for the for the price increases.
47:12
Speaker 1: But when you and I were, I mean we were
47:14
Speaker 1: in Afghanistan border almost cash car and even in that
47:19
Speaker 1: far flung part of China, they were charging stations all
47:23
Speaker 1: over the place.
47:24
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, China, China always had long term planning. Yeah,
47:28
Speaker 2: like we were, we were in like a small town
47:31
Speaker 2: like Tashkurgan near Pakistan board near the Pakistan border, and
47:36
Speaker 2: we're like like three thousand kilometers sea level and the
47:42
Speaker 2: town we have like fifty thousand population and they have
47:46
Speaker 2: charging stations and they have electric charges stations, electric parts
47:50
Speaker 2: of them.
47:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, not even not even a handful.
47:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, for fifty thousand town, you know, people, which is
47:58
Speaker 2: really small by Chinese standards.
48:00
Speaker 1: By the way, was that was that where we found
48:03
Speaker 1: the burger place. That's where we found the Yeah, that
48:10
Speaker 1: was one of the best moments. There were no no
48:14
Speaker 1: burger places throughout China, but we found it almost on
48:16
Speaker 1: the border of Pakistan.
48:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, you got time that only has like fifty thousand people,
48:21
Speaker 2: which is as small by Chinese stand They're very small
48:23
Speaker 2: by Chinese stand.
48:24
Speaker 1: That is very small.
48:26
Speaker 2: Yeah.
48:27
Speaker 1: But now, Carle, so regarding Iran and Taiwan, you know,
48:33
Speaker 1: what is your prognosis for the next at least ten
48:38
Speaker 1: fifteen years.
48:39
Speaker 2: Well, what happened Paradoxically, the you Wrong war made the
48:45
Speaker 2: Taiwan War less likely because now even people in Washington
48:50
Speaker 2: are noticing, holy crap, we cannot take on your own
48:55
Speaker 2: and if United States cannot take on your wrong, you know,
48:57
Speaker 2: forget about taking on China. China has magned into more
49:01
Speaker 2: missiles and more advanced missiles and you run. Uh. So
49:05
Speaker 2: the likelihood of a kinetic action in Western Pacific between
49:09
Speaker 2: China and the United States now is greatly.
49:12
Speaker 3: Reduced, you know, for the next ten years at least.
49:15
Speaker 2: And and but on the other side, on the in
49:19
Speaker 2: the in the in the straight or home moves now,
49:23
Speaker 2: it's unfortunately a deadlock situation which I don't see to
49:27
Speaker 2: be resolved anytime soon because the specific demands from the
49:32
Speaker 2: both sides, there's just a large gap in what both.
49:36
Speaker 3: Sides are demanding.
49:37
Speaker 2: Uh And to this conflict, because the United States want
49:41
Speaker 2: you around to give up is enriched Uranian its nuclear program,
49:45
Speaker 2: and he runs like, hell no, like you, you would
49:49
Speaker 2: not have attacked us if we actually have nuclear weapons.
49:52
Speaker 2: So we're gonna we're gonna keep on rich Uranian, and
49:55
Speaker 2: you're going to accept our control of the straight or
49:58
Speaker 2: home moose. You're going to pay reparation, and we want
50:01
Speaker 2: to make sure this does not happen again.
50:03
Speaker 3: So you need to get the f out of.
50:06
Speaker 2: West Asia, which it's going to be very bitter pill
50:09
Speaker 2: for us to swallow, because for US to agree to
50:12
Speaker 2: Irani in turns that would mean the total defeat of
50:15
Speaker 2: the US Empire in West Asia. And I don't think
50:19
Speaker 2: this is why Trump is having a hard time finding
50:24
Speaker 2: an exit ramp right now, and this is why we're
50:27
Speaker 2: having the stupid blockade on blockade a situation. And my
50:33
Speaker 2: guess is the situation will go on until it's become
50:39
Speaker 2: unbearable for people inside the United States. But it's gonna
50:45
Speaker 2: take there's a time delay effect because it takes like
50:49
Speaker 2: about thirty to fifty days for oil from Persian Gulf
50:54
Speaker 2: to reach the United States.
50:56
Speaker 3: So what that means is.
51:00
Speaker 2: Oil tanker that left the person golf before the war started,
51:05
Speaker 2: you know, just arrived in the in the port of
51:08
Speaker 2: Long Beach in Carnifornia, like last week. So the real
51:12
Speaker 2: shortage is just is just about to begin. You know.
51:17
Speaker 2: People haven't you know, even lived through a real shortage.
51:21
Speaker 2: So I think like once a panic sits in, once
51:24
Speaker 2: the stock market because because Trump adminitiation, they do everything
51:30
Speaker 2: by the stock market, you know, like that guy has
51:32
Speaker 2: been manipulating the stock market throughout the war by by
51:36
Speaker 2: throwing out an announcement at the beginning of the trading
51:39
Speaker 2: week it's we have a great deal. Everything looks good
51:43
Speaker 2: in market rally and then on Friday, He's like, we're
51:46
Speaker 2: bombing it back to the Stone Ages. And his son
51:49
Speaker 2: Baron Trump is probably making a killing on like, you know,
51:52
Speaker 2: on all these marketing, like on all these uh stock manipulations.
51:59
Speaker 2: But anyway, so I right now, before Trump went to China,
52:03
Speaker 2: he actually pointed to the stock worker, the stock market
52:06
Speaker 2: is all time high.
52:07
Speaker 3: So I'm till the panic.
52:11
Speaker 2: Sets in and people realize, oh crap, we're in this
52:14
Speaker 2: for the long haul. I think we probably won't have
52:17
Speaker 2: a resolution and we have to reach a critical point
52:22
Speaker 2: inside the United States when people are finally fed up
52:26
Speaker 2: with the price increases to demand I think some sort
52:30
Speaker 2: of settlement. Right now, they're just not enough political pressure
52:34
Speaker 2: I think on the White House. But the most most
52:37
Speaker 2: of political pressure probably come from Israeli lobby which really
52:41
Speaker 2: want want this work to go on.
52:44
Speaker 1: Well you say that, I mean this entire conversation happened
52:47
Speaker 1: without any mention of Israel.
52:50
Speaker 2: Well, we United States just had the most expensive congressional
52:57
Speaker 2: primary ever. You know, like fifteen to thirty million dollars
53:04
Speaker 2: were spent just to USEE one congressional candidate, Thomas Mathey.
53:09
Speaker 2: And right after the Thomas Matthew was defeated. You have
53:13
Speaker 2: Apex boasting on Twitter. We see Marjorie Taylor Green and
53:21
Speaker 2: Thomas Mathey, these two anti israel candidates.
53:24
Speaker 3: We got them out wet.
53:26
Speaker 2: Marshal the resources and we got the pro Israeli candidates in.
53:31
Speaker 3: Like they're literally boasting about it.
53:33
Speaker 2: Yet if you, if you, if you're pointing out maybe
53:37
Speaker 2: Israeli loppy has too much influence on US politics, you'll
53:40
Speaker 2: be called anti semitic. It's like they can boast like
53:43
Speaker 2: they just put their own candidate in. But if you
53:46
Speaker 2: if you point to their own tweet and say, wait
53:48
Speaker 2: a minute, what's going on here, and they'll be like, no, no, no,
53:51
Speaker 2: that's anti semitic. You know, it's anti semitic that you
53:54
Speaker 2: have eyes and you can see, and you have a
53:56
Speaker 2: brain that you can think.
54:00
Speaker 1: Of course, Trump, Bernie has what like two years left
54:03
Speaker 1: to less what I mean, what happens after him?
54:06
Speaker 2: Uh to what do you mean two more than two
54:09
Speaker 2: and a half years? Where what do you make Okay, yes,
54:14
Speaker 2: two and a half years left? Uh?
54:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is that's.
54:19
Speaker 1: Not very much. That's not very much if you consider
54:21
Speaker 1: the fact that that China has like another hundred years.
54:23
Speaker 1: I mean, they work long term and the US works
54:25
Speaker 1: short term.
54:27
Speaker 2: Look, germs, this is all this, let's your wrong Christ
54:31
Speaker 2: Like every so much already happened just in the last
54:34
Speaker 2: five months, okay, and then you you're telling you we're
54:38
Speaker 2: gonna have to throw lift through another two and a
54:41
Speaker 2: half years and Trump and it's like with Trump, it's
54:44
Speaker 2: it's it's like what the reverse of what Lennon said.
54:48
Speaker 2: Lennon says, so what you know, sometimes a decade happens
54:51
Speaker 2: in sometimes what uh decades happens in weeks. But with
55:00
Speaker 2: trump Man, every every month feels like a decade because Jesus,
55:06
Speaker 2: I mean, you don't know what he's going to do next.
55:09
Speaker 1: Who is likely to take his place? I wonder Rubio Vans.
55:15
Speaker 2: Well, I mean Marco Rubio does have presidential aspiration, That's
55:20
Speaker 2: that's for sure. And also, uh, and I also JD.
55:24
Speaker 2: Evans because he's backed by Peter Theo, you know, the
55:27
Speaker 2: powerful Silicon Valley tycoons. And and the thing is, yeah, yeah,
55:35
Speaker 2: Peter Theo is a weird guy.
55:36
Speaker 3: Actually met him once. He's super weird.
55:40
Speaker 2: And the the thing is, it's funny because JD. Vance
55:46
Speaker 2: had completely disappeared for the last like a month or so,
55:50
Speaker 2: you know, like during the during the whole China trip
55:53
Speaker 2: Trump Trump trip, you kind of just forgot that JD.
55:56
Speaker 2: Vans even existed. So I think what he's trying to do,
56:00
Speaker 2: he's trying to he's trying to distance himself from the
56:03
Speaker 2: Trump administration to preserve his chance for twenty twenty eight.
56:07
Speaker 2: But I don't think that's gonna work because I don't know.
56:11
Speaker 2: But the race is basically it's going to be Democrat
56:16
Speaker 2: parties to lose. But I don't, I don't. I don't
56:20
Speaker 2: put much hope on them either, because you know they
56:22
Speaker 2: they do pie make Hillary cl Clinton run again or
56:25
Speaker 2: something something stupid like that.
56:32
Speaker 1: When in dark put her in front.
56:35
Speaker 2: Imagine they put the two of the worst candidates, you know,
56:40
Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton and uh and and and and Kambala Harris.
56:46
Speaker 2: I would even argue Jim Joe Biden, but you know,
56:50
Speaker 2: like everybody know, Joe Biden was put up there because
56:54
Speaker 2: he was he was a compromise candidate because they didn't
56:58
Speaker 2: want like Bernie Sanders to win.
57:00
Speaker 1: But I mean, Biden is is. I think he's I
57:03
Speaker 1: think he's legit. See now he can't even speak in
57:06
Speaker 1: full sentences.
57:08
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, Trump is not too much far the eye?
57:11
Speaker 2: Did you see that clip he was he was have
57:14
Speaker 2: like r E M sleep in front of them during
57:17
Speaker 2: a press conference when all his cabinet or all like
57:20
Speaker 2: standing behind him. He was just like dozing, drifting to
57:24
Speaker 2: street dream to where where went from like sleepy Joe
57:28
Speaker 2: to like you know, sinio Traump. It's uh like like
57:33
Speaker 2: you know, Trump is actually older than the People's Republic
57:37
Speaker 2: of China's funny, that's a fact.
57:43
Speaker 1: Did you see that that time when he visited the
57:46
Speaker 1: queen and he was walking with her and she was
57:50
Speaker 1: signaling with her hand, very very subtly that he must walk,
57:53
Speaker 1: he must walk, he must move in a certain direction
57:56
Speaker 1: because he didn't know the protocol.
57:59
Speaker 3: Yeah, you cannot be said on is Trump? You gotta
58:02
Speaker 3: you gotta give you an extra push?
58:07
Speaker 1: All right? Cal uh love jutting to you. How can
58:10
Speaker 1: I follow you?
58:11
Speaker 2: Okay? Well, I'm a prolific ship poster on x my
58:15
Speaker 2: my handle Twitter handoid just carls on my name. I
58:19
Speaker 2: have a have a YouTube channel too again under my
58:22
Speaker 2: handle carl Za. I do run a Chinese history podcast
58:27
Speaker 2: on my Patreon website, Soil Can Steal Podcast. What I
58:31
Speaker 2: uh you know? Tell I go by Chinese history, like
58:34
Speaker 2: chronologically year by year now, I mean like the year
58:38
Speaker 2: two ten BC when the first impro of China just died.
58:43
Speaker 2: So so you know, I still have like a couple
58:45
Speaker 2: of thousand years to go. If that's your couple of tea,
58:48
Speaker 2: follow me.
58:48
Speaker 1: There, and of course everybody can follow you and I
58:52
Speaker 1: at the CCP dot com.
58:56
Speaker 3: Now, actually you UKY columns, kay Colus?
59:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, both you and I have got to show an
59:04
Speaker 1: UK column. Yeah all right, my friend Corza, thank you
59:08
Speaker 1: for joining me in the trenches anyway,