Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 281 - 5/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 281 - 5/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 281 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Monday, a new week begins coming to the tail stretch here
• 0:41
  in the month of May. Can you believe it?
• 0:42
  Spring is winding down, summer is right around the corner, and
• 0:46
  we got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
• 0:48
  As always, we're going to continue to grind.
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  My favorite sport to bet on a daily basis.
• 0:52
  Maybe yours as well. Major League Baseball.
• 0:55
  I know it's a smaller than usual slate, only 12 games overall,
• 0:58
  but I found three games that fit our model.
• 1:01
  A good sharp line move, good bet splits, good system matches, and
• 1:04
  we'll see if we can go 2IN1 eke out a winning day, which is
• 1:07
  always the goal. I hope everyone had a great
• 1:10
  weekend. I was, you know, hanging around
• 1:12
  the house doing a lot of yard work.
• 1:14
  Finally get in the yard in in check here.
• 1:16
  And I know you guys don't really care about that much, but I'll
• 1:18
  just tell you, I just turned 38 years old earlier this month,
• 1:22
  May 1st, and I am turning into my dad.
• 1:24
  You know what my dad used to do? He would be working in the yard
• 1:28
  with his radio on listening to the Red Sox games.
• 1:30
  And you know what I'm doing this past weekend Red Sox games, they
• 1:34
  let me down and a couple of them had a walk off with Devers and
• 1:37
  one of them as well. But there I am in the yard
• 1:40
  working on working yard work and listening to the Red Sox on the
• 1:43
  radio. So it's funny how life works
• 1:45
  sometimes. Going full circle here, I am
• 1:47
  officially turning into my dad, which is totally cool.
• 1:49
  I love my dad and now I understand what what he loved to
• 1:53
  do when he was younger when he was my age.
• 1:55
  So anyway, guys, as I mentioned 3 pack of MLB, that's what we
• 1:58
  breaking down today. We do have really nothing else
• 2:01
  to bet on. I was looking at WNBA game here.
• 2:04
  I do want to dabble in some WNBA.
• 2:06
  I've been seeing my buddy James Santor and some people that that
• 2:10
  I follow on Twitter who are aligned with rhythm.
• 2:13
  They've been putting out some great tweets about how WNBA is
• 2:15
  helping them to get off to a great start this season.
• 2:18
  So remember, Rhythm has you for AI back models and predictions
• 2:22
  for game bets and player props for all sports including WNBA.
• 2:26
  Then I was looking at today's game Storm and wings.
• 2:28
  Nothing really caught my eye either way so didn't have
• 2:31
  anything else other than baseball.
• 2:32
  We do have NHL and NBA on hiatus here for the postseason but
• 2:37
  starting tomorrow nice little double dip because at 8:00 we
• 2:40
  got the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes.
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  My guy Brad Martian winning another Game 7 and then NBA we
• 2:47
  got the T Wolves and the Thunder tipping off.
• 2:48
  So should have some postseason action for you tomorrow.
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  Well, that being said, luckily on a slow day like today, we
• 2:55
  still got baseball to sweat here.
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  So 3 plays overall, as I mentioned, realistic
• 3:00
  expectations, yeah, let's go 3 and O and crush the books.
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  No, no, no, we're going to try to go 2 and 1, eke out a winning
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  day. Always have realistic
• 3:07
  expectations, always expect the worst and hope for the best.
• 3:11
  How about that? The way it's hard to be
• 3:12
  disappointed. But anyway, guys, first one on
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  the board for me. Let's go down to Miami.
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  We got the Chicago Cubby Cubbies visiting the Miami Marlins now,
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  6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, let's set the stage.
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  I'll give you my play for this one.
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  So this game opened or sorry, start off here.
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  First, a little bit of background.
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  The Cubbies, 28 and 19, having a great year, just swept the White
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  Sox at Wrigley. They won six to two in
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  yesterday's series finale, coming through as a big -250
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  home favorite. Meanwhile, the Marlins, 18 and
• 3:42
  27 on the year, did just take two or three against the Rays.
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  They won five to one yesterday as a + 145 home dog.
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  So for the pitching matchup in this series opener, we got the
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  Cubbies going to ready Ben Brown.
• 3:54
  He's three and three, 4.75 ERA. Meanwhile, the Fish are going to
• 3:58
  go with the fellow ready, Edwin Cabrera Owen, one 5.52 ERA.
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  So what do you sit across the market here?
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  Well, this ones going a little bit back and forth, but I'm
• 4:06
  going to stick with my original player.
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  I'm going Cubs this game opened Chicago as low as a - 160 -, 165
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  Rd. favorite Miami Roundup plus 145 + 150 home dog.
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  And really up until about, I would say half hour ago, it's
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  been nothing but Cubbies again. You saw the Cubs get steamed up
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  all the way -175 up to -180 some shops even inching toward -185
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  Then you saw a little bit of buyback.
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  So once you kind of had a high watermark of around -180 -, 185,
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  you did start to see the Cubs tick back down to around -170 So
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  I don't love the fact that it's coming back toward Miami.
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  But based off the opener to current, still the movements
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  been toward the Cubs. Now the Cubs bet splits look
• 4:49
  pretty good at DraftKings, 85% of bets, 93% of money is on
• 4:54
  Chicago at circa, over 95% of money line bets and dollars on
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  the Cubs. So it looks like both the public
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  National DraftKings as well as the Desert Wiseguy circa both
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  have a good one way prone Joe bet split in favor of the
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  Cubbies. Now if you're worried about
• 5:10
  this, you know, buy back here on Miami.
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  I got to admit, I didn't like seeing that either, but here's
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  some system matches to make you feel a little bit better.
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  When both teams are coming off a win, which is the case here,
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  Take the favorite. It's very simple system, but
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  it's 32 and 1963% with a 3% ROI this year.
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  If you isolate bigger favorites that are -170 or more and the
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  line moves in their direction from the opener to current,
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  those teams are one O 7 and 4272% with a 4% ROI.
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  And then in particular, the Cubs in the spot are 19 and 9 on the
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  year as a favorite, 68 percent, 10% ROI and they're six and two
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  as a road favorite 75%. We do have the Cubs with some
• 5:51
  betting system value additionally as a non division
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  favorite. So that lack of familiarity
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  benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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  And we do have the Cubs offense that will be banking on to come
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  through here and get to Cabrera. Hopefully Brown pitches well,
• 6:03
  but Cabrera again, ERA in the mid to high fives.
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  Cubbies are do have the more explosive offense.
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  They've hit 65 homers, scored 270 runs this year.
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  Marlins have only hit 42 homers and scored 187 runs.
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  And in particular, Brown, as I mentioned, he's been really good
• 6:20
  in the month of May in particular, he's made three
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  starts. He's got a 2.76 ERA, only giving
• 6:26
  up five runs and 16.1 innings pitched.
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  And ironically enough, he's actually been better on the road
• 6:31
  than at home. At home at Wrigley, 6.39 ERA, on
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  the road, 1.59 ERA. So I fully admit, again, you
• 6:39
  want it, you want to place a bet and get a lot of CLV.
• 6:42
  But in this case, even though it's come back a little bit
• 6:44
  toward Miami, I'm going to dance with the one who brung me.
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  I'm not going to cash out. Bet the other side.
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  I'm sticking with the Cubbies here.
• 6:49
  Guys, shop around and get the Cubs at -170 next one for you.
• 6:54
  A couple late night games in the state of California.
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  Let's start with an interleague match up here. 9:45 PM Eastern
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  Time, the Kansas City Royals visiting the San Francisco
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  Giants. Now, a little background, The
• 7:06
  Royals, 26 and 22 on the year, did just drop 2 out of three
• 7:10
  though against the Cardinals. How about the Cardinals man,
• 7:12
  They really turned it around as of late, but they did avoid the
• 7:15
  sweep actually beat the cards 2 to 1 cashed as around a + 100
• 7:18
  Rd. home dog conversely, got the G men 2819 continuing to have a
• 7:24
  good year. They just swept the athletics.
• 7:26
  They won three to two yesterday as a -, 150 home favorite.
• 7:30
  So pitch a match up here looks pretty good.
• 7:32
  Royals are going to go with the lefty Chris Boobich, who's four
• 7:35
  and two 1.66 ERA and the G men are going to go with the
• 7:38
  southpaw Robbie Ray, who's been great as well.
• 7:41
  Six and O3 point O 4 ERA. What do we see across the market
• 7:45
  here? Well, we got pretty consistent
• 7:47
  movement toward the G men. Give me the G men here, guys.
• 7:51
  We saw the giants open as low as a -, 115 -, 120 home favorite.
• 7:55
  We've now seen the giants get steamed up to -130 Now I jumped
• 8:00
  on San Fran a little earlier today.
• 8:02
  Sign up to follow those best bets on the the juice reel app,
• 8:06
  but you can now get a -, 130. I got San Fran -126 earlier
• 8:10
  today. I do like the bet splits on the
• 8:12
  Giants, in particular DraftKings.
• 8:15
  You're getting around 2/3 of bets and dollars on San Fran
• 8:18
  tells me both you know, public and sharp support going with the
• 8:20
  Giants. Then we get to our system
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  matches, quite a few on the G men here.
• 8:25
  Home favorites off a win with a winning record.
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  Those teams are 111 and 5667 percent, 5% ROI this year.
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  Non division home favorites off a win with steam $0.05 or more.
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  Those teams are 81 and 39 this year, 68 percent, 7% ROI.
• 8:40
  And then a couple more Monday home favorites of the line move
• 8:44
  in their direction. Again, this is kind of a weird
• 8:47
  one, but my thought process is, hey, like the weekend's over,
• 8:50
  you got a trip, maybe you're traveling.
• 8:52
  Why don't you go with that home team who's expected to win and
• 8:56
  the line is moving in their direction.
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  Those teams are 24 and eight this year, 75 percent, 18% ROI.
• 9:03
  Then we have home favorites in the opening game of a new
• 9:05
  series. 91 and 4666% with a 7% ROI.
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  G men are 15 and 575 percent, 21% ROI as a home favorite this
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  year. They're one of the best home
• 9:16
  favorites and baseball giants also have some correlative
• 9:20
  betting favorite low total. So talked about two great
• 9:23
  pitchers on the bump, Boobich and Ray total 7 1/2 juiced under
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  -115 -. 120. And that's again, typically a
• 9:30
  good sign when the totals falling or juiced under and the
• 9:33
  lines moving toward the favorite few amount of expected run
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  scored more likely to come from quote, UN quote.
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  That better team also got the interleague favorite value.
• 9:41
  Again, lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
• 9:44
  And as I mentioned, the Giants 16 and seven at home.
• 9:47
  Royals are 9 and 13 on the road. SO2 good pitchers, but we got a
• 9:51
  really good home team with a good line moving.
• 9:53
  A lot of system matches. I'm going with AG men in this
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  one, guys. I got a -, 126 again.
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  Now you're looking at around -130 last bed of the night,
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  staying in the great state of California.
• 10:05
  And boy, is this a gross one, which kind of makes me really
• 10:08
  like it. I'm talking the Angels visiting
• 10:11
  the Athletics in Sacramento now, setting the stage, complete
• 10:14
  opposite weekends for these teams.
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  The Angels, believe it or not, even though they're only 20 and
• 10:19
  25 on the year, they swept the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.
• 10:22
  I believe that hasn't happened in like two or three years.
• 10:25
  But they won six to four yesterday as a + 200 Rd. dog.
• 10:28
  You know, the A's 22 and 25, they just got swept by, as we
• 10:32
  just mentioned, the Giants. They lost 3 to 2 yesterday as a
• 10:35
  + 135 Rd. dog. So in this series opener, we
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  have the Angels going with Jose Soriano, the righty.
• 10:41
  He's two and four, 3.46 ERA. And the A's are going to go with
• 10:45
  the fellow ready JT Ginn. He's one and one 4.61 ERA.
• 10:49
  And what do we see across the market for this one?
• 10:52
  Well, the opener was the A's listed as around a -, 115 -, 120
• 10:57
  home favorite Angels around even money plus 100.
• 11:00
  And my first thought was, man, Angels just swept the Dodgers.
• 11:04
  Athletics are struggling this, this line's going to drop toward
• 11:07
  a pick em, right? Angels are playing better.
• 11:09
  No, that actually has not happened.
• 11:11
  We've seen the Athletics get steamed up -115 -, 120 now up to
• 11:17
  -135 -, 140. So boom.
• 11:21
  That really jumped out to me like this is one of the kind of
• 11:23
  most interesting line moves of the day.
• 11:25
  Angels have just again, great serious sweep against the mighty
• 11:29
  Dodgers. Athletics are struggling, yet
• 11:31
  the lines getting steamed toward the A's makes no sense, right.
• 11:35
  Well, if you bet sports long enough, you learn to love the
• 11:37
  the the situations that don't make any sense.
• 11:40
  And what I also like is the bet splits because if you look at
• 11:42
  DraftKings right now, public is right down the middle.
• 11:44
  They don't know where to go 5050.
• 11:47
  Maybe it take the angels and a little plus money.
• 11:49
  Maybe a late with the A's because they're at home,
• 11:51
  slightly better record. But even though you're getting,
• 11:53
  you know, basically 5050 splits. What do we always talk about?
• 11:57
  5050 theoretically balanced action.
• 12:00
  No need to adjust the price, but the odds makers did adjust it
• 12:04
  bigly here toward the A's. So that's a 5050 line move on
• 12:07
  the A's tells me the bigger sharper wages are on the
• 12:10
  Athletics. If we isolate the bet splits at
• 12:12
  circa out in Vegas, 82% of money line bets, 99% of money line
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  dollars on the A's. So that really jumped out to me
• 12:20
  as a lot of wise guys in the desert going with the A's.
• 12:23
  Some system matches on on almost called them Oakland.
• 12:26
  You can catch the over 8 / A / 1/2 miss miss misnomer there for
• 12:31
  no longer the Oakland A's, but the Sacramento A's, soon to be
• 12:33
  the Las Vegas A's. But we do have system matches
• 12:36
  here when both teams are below 500.
• 12:38
  Take the favorite. That's 53 and 25 this year, 68
• 12:41
  percent, 10% ROI. Monday home favorites with a
• 12:45
  line move in their direction. Just mentioned this one and
• 12:47
  matched on San Fran, but that system is again 24 and 875
• 12:51
  percent, 18% ROI. And then another system we just
• 12:54
  talked about on San Fran, also on the A's home favorites in the
• 12:58
  opening game of a new series, 91 and 4666 percent, 7% ROI.
• 13:04
  Again, aside from the line move, this is just a really fishy buy
• 13:07
  low play. And again, when you talk about
• 13:09
  value, it's always buy low, sell high.
• 13:11
  You hear it all the time. It's cliche, but it's true.
• 13:13
  You want to buy low on something that's struggling or unpopular
• 13:16
  and sell high on something that's doing well and unpopular
• 13:19
  because regression typically means it's going to even out.
• 13:22
  So the A's buy low value as a team.
• 13:24
  It just got swept sell high on the the Angels who just again
• 13:29
  swept their opponent, the Dodgers in particular with two
• 13:33
  righties on the bump. Athletics are hitting better
• 13:35
  against righties. They're hitting 246.
• 13:37
  Doesn't sound great, but that is 14th.
• 13:38
  And baseball Angels only hitting 224 against righties, that's
• 13:41
  27th. The A's are hitting 260 at home
• 13:44
  this year. Again, home is Sacramento, 8th
• 13:47
  overall. Angels are hitting 220 on the
• 13:49
  road, 26th on the road. That has not been great.
• 13:53
  So add it all up again, makes no sense.
• 13:56
  This. You would think A's you know
• 13:58
  should be a dog or it should be a pick em game because they're
• 14:00
  struggling and the Angels just beat the Dodgers.
• 14:02
  But no, we got a fishy 5050 line move, good split bet splits and
• 14:06
  circa tons of system matches. I'm going with the Athletics
• 14:09
  here guys. I got a -. 134 looks like your
• 14:12
  best price now is -138 at FanDuel again.
• 14:15
  Some shops even or most shops as high as -140 So Cubs, Giants,
• 14:21
  A's, can we get two of those to post a win tonight?
• 14:24
  That is the goal. So that about does it for
• 14:27
  episode 281 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 14:31
  powered by Rhythm. Of course.
• 14:32
  This is the part of the pod where you wrap things up and I
• 14:35
  start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 14:38
  out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
• 14:41
  the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
• 14:44
  with me. If you do enjoy the pod, whether
• 14:46
  you tail fade, pick and choose, don't bet any games and just
• 14:50
  like the breakdowns, maybe it's part of your routine, you know,
• 14:53
  going on the bus to work or driving in or whatever, coming
• 14:56
  home making dinner, you say hey Alexa, play the all systems go
• 14:59
  sports betting pod. Whatever the case may be, I
• 15:02
  appreciate you guys. If you want to help me to grow
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  the pod, could you do me a very quick, easy thing?
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  I swear it's easy and harmless. Just give the podcast a five
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  star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 15:12
  That would go a long way to helping us get to continue to
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  grow the podcast. If you want to leave a nice
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  comment under the review section.
• 15:19
  I will never say no to that. And also if you want to
• 15:22
  recommend the pod to a friend or click the follow button that way
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  you get alerted as soon as the pod drops each day.
• 15:27
  That will be great as well. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 15:31
  betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
• 15:34
  betting games based on what the market and the numbers are
• 15:37
  telling us, not what our heart and our favoritism is telling
• 15:40
  us. Again, if you want to learn more
• 15:42
  about this style of betting, data-driven betting, or you want
• 15:45
  to support the POD, or you want to let me know you appreciate
• 15:47
  the POD, or maybe you have someone in your life who could
• 15:50
  really use a few data-driven tips.
• 15:52
  You know you should do. You should go to Amazon.com and
• 15:55
  then type in the everything guide to sports betting.
• 15:58
  That's the first book I ever wrote.
• 15:59
  I'm very proud of it. I think it holds up still very
• 16:02
  well, even though it's a few years old at this point.
• 16:04
  But it's really geared toward brand new betters.
• 16:06
  We're looking to break into betting and really have no clue
• 16:08
  how to do it. But even intermediate betters
• 16:11
  got a lot of great betting systems in there.
• 16:13
  But it's got everything I've learned in the industry, how
• 16:15
  lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement,
• 16:18
  how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or
• 16:21
  online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 16:24
  management plan. It's all included in the
• 16:26
  everything guide to sports betting.
• 16:28
  So while you're at it and you're picking up the everything guide,
• 16:30
  you know what you should do as well.
• 16:32
  You should make me really happy and make you or a friend happy
• 16:35
  by pre ordering a copy of my new book.
• 16:37
  It comes out August 12th. It's called the NFL sharp
• 16:41
  betting playbook. Again, available for pre-order
• 16:44
  on Amazon right now, but I cannot wait for you guys to
• 16:46
  check it out because I've been working on it for over three
• 16:49
  years, believe it or not. And it's got really everything
• 16:52
  I've learned not from just, you know, kind of my, my stubborn
• 16:55
  data-driven approach, but a lot of things that I've learned
• 16:58
  since I started working for V sin back in 2019 and learning
• 17:02
  wiseguy angles and maybe not exactly all data, but some of
• 17:05
  the old school handicapping tips.
• 17:07
  So can't wait for you guys to check it out. pre-order the
• 17:09
  everything guide or buy the everything guide. pre-order the
• 17:12
  NFL sharp betting playbook, bring them to the sports book.
• 17:15
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale or a truly or maybe I don't
• 17:19
  know, some other drink of choice, alcoholic or not.
• 17:23
  And we'll sweat some games together, get some nachos,
• 17:25
  hopefully cash some tickets. Next.
• 17:28
  Have you downloaded Juice Reel and Rhythm yet?
• 17:30
  My two favorite sports betting apps.
• 17:32
  Rhythm does a great job of powering this pod, giving us AI
• 17:35
  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 17:38
  And then of course Juice Rail with the all-encompassing sports
• 17:42
  betting app #1 Here I am holding out the pass in the hat.
• 17:46
  I don't know if you guys played baseball when you're younger,
• 17:48
  but we got to pass the hat. You know you want to.
• 17:49
  You had to pay the umpires and get the uniforms.
• 17:51
  You pass that people would throw $5.00 bill, $20 bill, you know
• 17:55
  the dollar, whatever you had out.
• 17:57
  If you enjoy the pod, I'm going to pass the hat because the pod
• 18:00
  is free. And if you like it, you know
• 18:02
  what I'd love for you guys to do?
• 18:03
  Go sign up to get the official all Systems Go Best Bet picks on
• 18:07
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• 18:10
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• 18:12
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• 18:15
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• 18:18
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• 18:22
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• 18:28
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  their books and has placed a bet on any game spread money line in
• 18:50
  total. Next, do you have a live odds
• 18:53
  page? You need a live odds page.
• 18:55
  If you're listening to me, you're probably, you know,
• 18:58
  pretty sharp, I would say, or maybe you're new to betting, but
• 19:00
  you want to get sharper, but you're serious about betting.
• 19:03
  This isn't just a casual thing. This isn't just a throwing darts
• 19:06
  based on what you think will happen.
• 19:08
  But if you're serious about betting, you need a live odds
• 19:11
  page because that is your Bible. I swear to God, it's going to be
• 19:14
  the the tab that you visit the most online.
• 19:16
  You know, whether you got a a desktop, laptop, tablet, you're
• 19:19
  going to be staring at this thing all day like I do.
• 19:22
  And I love, First off, the fact that it gives me all the games
• 19:25
  to bet on today, the start times, the live scoring, the
• 19:28
  live lines. But more importantly, it gives
• 19:30
  me the opening number, an opening column that never
• 19:32
  changes. Then to the right, all the
• 19:34
  current numbers. So I can shop for the best line,
• 19:35
  get the best price, see which direction the line is moving,
• 19:39
  and of course, follow market setting books and pulling up
• 19:41
  line history, which will tell you more of the story.
• 19:44
  So there's a lot of live odds pages out there.
• 19:47
  But if you don't know by now, you got to know.
• 19:49
  If you don't know, now you know. As the great philosopher Biggie
• 19:53
  Smalls once said, you got to go with Odds Logic.
• 19:56
  They're the best around. They have the cleanest and most
• 19:59
  crisp live odds page highlights and notifications.
• 20:03
  It's also a great opportunity to test it out because I have a
• 20:07
  promo code for you or a link I guess you should say.
• 20:10
  All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 20:16
  That'll give you a 7 day free trial and then 50% off your
• 20:19
  first month. Normally it's 99 bucks a month.
• 20:22
  Again, sounds like a lot, and it is.
• 20:24
  But there are a lot of live odds pages that are like 203 hundred
• 20:27
  600 bucks a month. And again, you'll get half off
• 20:31
  with that promo code or link. Again, it's odds logic.com/josh
• 20:36
  123. So that about does it for
• 20:38
  episode 281 of the ASG Pod Powered by Rhythm.
• 20:43
  As always, guys leave you a couple things.
• 20:44
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 20:48
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 20:50
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
• 20:53
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
• 20:56
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts or at the Nash,
• 20:59
  the new new sparkling new National New Hampshire casino
• 21:02
  only about 20 minutes from my house.
• 21:04
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
• 21:07
  or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
• 21:09
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 21:12
  You're going to walk up to me. Or of course, I forgot, jump in
• 21:15
  the stadium swimming pool. Cash and big tickets at Circa.
• 21:18
  You're going to walk up to me and hopefully, if I can get my
• 21:20
  time machine, my Biff Tan and Alman Almanac, you're going to
• 21:23
  come back and show me a Patriots over 7 1/2 ticket.
• 21:26
  Remember we talked about that last week?
• 21:29
  I actually just got a new batch of data for my buddy John Ewing
• 21:32
  at Bet MGM. This is from Bet MGM in
• 21:34
  particular. But Pat's win total open 7 1/2.
• 21:37
  Now it's up to 8 1/2 and 79% of bets, 90% of money is on the
• 21:41
  over. And Bet MGM, ESPN, DraftKings,
• 21:45
  Caesar's, they're all 8 1/2. But FanDuel, this is like the
• 21:49
  trains leaving the station. Guys, if you want to play this
• 21:51
  Pat's win total over with me, I don't know how much longer it's
• 21:53
  going to be 7 1/2 at FanDuel, but Fanduel's still got 7 1/2 /
• 21:57
  -, 150. If you remember last week, we
• 22:00
  got it over 7 1/2 at -140. So let's go.
• 22:03
  Pats win eight games or more this year, but that about dozen
• 22:07
  guys. As always, stay sharp, stay
• 22:10
  contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
• 22:12
  side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 22:14
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 22:17
  Unfortunately, not betting is hard.
• 22:19
  It's unpredictable. There's the lock, the
• 22:21
  randomness, the human element, overcoming the odds, the
• 22:23
  supercomputers beating the juice.
• 22:26
  But I can tell you one thing, If we continue to stick to the
• 22:28
  model in the blueprint, stay true to our philosophy, find
• 22:32
  games that fit our model with our head and not our heart, we
• 22:34
  can do that. Long term.
• 22:36
  We're going to come out on top. We're going to be successful
• 22:38
  sports betters. So have a great Monday night,
• 22:40
  everybody. Again, 3 plays in MLB tomorrow.
• 22:43
  We got a bunch of good postseason action here.
• 22:45
  Let's see if we can get two of these winners tonight eke out a
• 22:47
  winning day. As always guys, have a great
• 22:50
  night and I will see you tomorrow a big Tuesday edition.
• 22:53
  That'll be episode 282 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 22:56
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 23:00
  great Monday night.