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2023 Crop Tour Final Results · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Today is August 11th, and it's been five days of fun across the United States, 2,000 plus miles, and we have concluded our crop tour.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: And with it, we have some final estimates that we are going to share here on the podcast.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: So basically, I'm going to get right on it, and we're going to talk a little bit about the overall yield from our crop tour versus what the USDA found today, and then talk about a little bit of change in those numbers and what we see going forward.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: So in the US today, we expect about a 176.2 yield.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, the WASDA report came out today at 175 and change.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: But I would argue, you know, since they dropped that month over month, and uh when that was calculated up to, which was the beginning of August, you know, uh we've had a lot more boots on the ground with uh a lot of wet boots uh after the August first time frame.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: So well, we would argue there's an improving crop out there right now, and I think that influenced a little bit of our decision making too, and just the idea that we have a crop that's growing in the United States right now, and I I think that's an important thing to recognize and trend because right now the crop the final crop size is not uh final by any means.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: We we have a moving target on our hands yet.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's pretty early, and uh we really won't get uh this crop finished off for a little while yet.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got uh potentials still out there, and uh we've got a good idea of it, but it'll be important what kind of weather we're finishing out with.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: And to be honest, whether it's soybeans or corn, uh for that matter, we're getting a pretty good final finish for these crops right now.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: So for the United States, I think some of the keys that I want to focus on um for sure are Nebraska.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, 178 is what we found, but I think that could easily be above 180.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think that state's come a really long way.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's improved a lot from what it would have been a month ago.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: So that's one state I recognized a lot of change in.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Missouri, yeah, we had the worst corn we found in the state uh on the trip in Missouri and northeast corner of that state, anyways, in a pretty decent size uh manner.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Rest of the state was pretty much fine, central to west, but uh that will definitely hold some things back.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Illinois, I think uh we've uh been pretty quiet about Illinois over the past few weeks, and rightfully so, with the amount of rain they've been getting, improving uh condition scores that we've been seeing, I think are all perfectly uh accurate.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: I I think when we drove through green grass and uh seeing decent conditions from the road uh didn't quite tell the story until you get in and realize that a little bit of yield was taken off through the middle of the summer.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I think that one you really had to get out of the car to to really go find what yields were out there.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: And that makes it a really difficult state.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd say this year Illinois was the hardest state to judge uh by far.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Um doesn't mean it's uh the hardest state by is it a 180 or is it a 210?
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Not at all.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: I I just think that uh that one made us really work for our uh results there, anyways.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Indiana was the best state we went through condition-wise.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: They're the only state that we're gonna post a record in.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think that was really good.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And then uh Ohio just had some uh early planting problems.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: So let's kind of start here, guys, with uh rundown of the list, anyways.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: And uh let's start with South Dakota.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, back home here, we're looking at South Dakota.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, not necessarily anywhere near a record yield, but uh we found better yields than what were expected.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: The samples were really good.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the heat and dry pockets are probably gonna keep the state from reaching those record yields, but there's pretty decent potential out there for a large crop yet.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And I think uh from the sounds of it, from that northern tour, they they were very happy with what they found out in the fields versus uh our expectations from earlier in the summer.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: How about Minnesota there, Jace, uh and Corey?
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think this is another controversial topic.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think Minnesota is one of those states that the drought monitor kind of tells the story.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: There's gonna be some counties here that challenge records, but there's gonna be some areas of lighter dirt that are gonna keep that probably under it for a state yield.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely it's uh Attila 2 cities between the west and the eastern south half of Minnesota.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: In the west, we we could potentially have some record-breaking county yields, and in the east, uh, we definitely have some struggles out there that continue to miss some of these recent rains that uh everyone else is really getting.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: I know they got some last night, but uh they're really uh struggling in that part of the state.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see how big of a geographical area that is, how much uh those matter versus the West basically for a state yield, and you know that the reality of a uh 195 maybe isn't there anymore, but uh are we five off of it because of the West Pole and the East higher?
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, so are we closer to a 190?
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh that one I think is gonna be a really hard state to dial in on to.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think, Corey?
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I would have to agree with that.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_02: It seemed like it's either wherever you wherever you were at in the state, it was either that's really good corn or that's not very good corn.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and the drought map really told you, like Jay said.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: So Nebraska here, like I said, that one, it's had a rough couple of years.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um, that's probably one of the the more surprising ones that really pulled a 180 this year and uh really improved conditions about halfway through the summer, caught some really nice rains, and uh the reality of that doing a 180 plus is a real possibility, which I know a lot of people wouldn't have thought of uh back in the beginning of July.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Iowa, you know, when I look at Iowa, it's that Algon East is pretty rough.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Algona West, it starts to get better.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: The you know it's different.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Western Iowa is a little bit better this year, eastern Iowa's gonna pull the state average down, and so it's flip-flop from what we saw last year.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: And that that route between Cedar Rapids and kind of the you know, border of Minnesota and the northeast corner of the state, that was some uh rougher corn.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: You could tell the difference between high-priced dirt and uh a little bit lower CSR.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: So I would I would keep that in mind in Iowa and uh have expectations uh limited for a state yield because of that.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: But uh for the majority, I think it's gonna really show farming practices.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Um I think the sins will show up pretty fast in in that crop this year.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: If you made any mistakes, it's not gonna be very forgiving.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I think the high price dirt is really gonna pay for itself in that state this year, but um that's gonna keep it close to 200.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: The problems in the east.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: I could see it slipping, but they're getting some pretty decent rains here too, and a good fish finish, and that could allow for that low 200s type yield again, I think.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: How about uh Missouri guys?
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh just break that down a little bit more for us.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_02: Well, in Missouri, the western and central part, they looked pretty good with good, probably good right around average yields for that part of the state.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_02: But the main area that we saw was northeast uh Missouri, and that was you could tell the dryness for that area was not they needed more rain.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_02: And that part of the state is definitely gonna bring down the state's yield, and it's really tough to figure out that state yield with until you see how much rain they're gonna get to finish out.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: The bigger county production areas are in the the middle of the state and kind of the western north portion of the state, but they're bigger in geo geography, and uh the eastern side of that state and north, it seems like the more agricultural region, bigger, bigger farms, uh flatter fields, just a little bit laid out better, so that's definitely an area that's going to be hurt from that.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: The Illinois, you know, when I look at uh Illinois, I guess Missouri that was like a 148 yield, by the way, is what we were expecting there.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: But all right, so now Illinois.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think, Jace?
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean that was a state that had a pretty dry start, but if it wouldn't have been for that, they would have had a really, really good crop this year.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: And even with that drought, the the finish is looking pretty strong, I guess, and holding it around a 200 state yield would be pretty good.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: The Illinois crop was so deceiving.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: It uh it was hard to tell.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: It made us work for it for sure, like we mentioned earlier.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: And um they got saved at the end of this crop year.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: Haven't heard much for stress rail recently.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um my joke is it always rains on us every time we drive through McLean County, which would be the largest corn production state or county in in the United States.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: And it did again this year, but it was pretty much a whole state of Illinois.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: It rained on us this year, it seemed like so um let's go to that next state there uh after this.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: We had Illinois in the low 200s, 203.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, a real possibility there on that, I think.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Indiana, 196.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that was a great state, record crop uh yield out of our expectations.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: Condition-wise, it was by far the best uh state we went through through and through.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and that's the only state we've got a record on here for this year's crop tour.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: So uh very interesting uh year out of Indiana that hopefully uh they can take advantage of with a good finish occurring too.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Ohio is going to be the last state we're gonna talk about today, and uh that state uh struggled to get the crop in the ground, and you could tell.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh height was a little bit more inconsistent, but that was pretty much the only thing that held it back.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: Conditions would have been similar to Indiana, I think, if that was not the case.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: So that did hold the yield back just a smidge.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: It'll depend how f how they finish out for sure there with a lack of maturity, but uh not a record, but definitely more average yields for Ohio here this year.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: So 176.2 is uh, you know, just shy of a record crop, which I think is uh perfectly fine, but that's also a number, like you saw in the report today, that's growing.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we had wet boots on the ground the entire trip, and uh we're getting rain right now at a very uh nice critical time of the year for soybeans, and you know, uh a beneficial rain for sure for corn still.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's doing a lot of help.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: So thank you for listening and uh following along this year, whether it was on Twitter or through the podcast here or on our website.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: We appreciate all the feedback and support.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we've had a lot of views, a lot of listens.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be at Dakota Fest here this next week on Wednesday on a panel at noon.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think that'll be a lot of fun with Jesse Allen there.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um we've had a I had an opportunity to be on a few different programs here during the crop tour.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's been awesome.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: And uh please let us know if you've got any further feedback, want to know anything more about uh any of the areas we had gone through uh after my eighth year of doing this crop tour.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, guys, and thank you to all our listeners.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us at professional eggmarketing.com.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: That's released every Friday.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: See you next time.