Latest / Pod Save America / Trump Mocks Israel, Speaker Race in Chaos

Transcript

Trump Mocks Israel, Speaker Race in Chaos · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:22
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:23
Speaker 3: On today's show, Republicans nominate Steve Scalise as Speaker, but
0:26
Speaker 3: it's still not clear he has the votes to get
0:28
Speaker 3: the job. Trump protege Carrie Lake jumps into the pivotal
0:32
Speaker 3: Arizona Senate race. And Congressman George Santos is hit with
0:35
Speaker 3: 10 more felony charges and is somehow still in Congress.
0:40
Speaker 3: But first, the biggest story in the world and in U.S.
0:43
Speaker 3: politics continues to be Israel's response to the horrific terrorist
0:47
Speaker 3: attack by Hamas. This is now a war that so
0:50
Speaker 3: far left thousands dead, including at least 27 American citizens.
0:55
Speaker 3: There are still at least 150 hostages in Gaza. That
0:59
Speaker 3: also includes some Americans. And there's a real fear that
1:02
Speaker 3: other Middle Eastern countries could join the conflict. As usual,
1:07
Speaker 3: Tommy and Ben have been doing an outstanding job covering
1:09
Speaker 3: this for Pod Save the World. So make sure you're
1:12
Speaker 3: up to speed on that show. We're going to start
1:15
Speaker 3: the show by talking about how the war is affecting
1:18
Speaker 3: American politics. Here's President Biden during a roundtable with Jewish
1:23
Speaker 3: leaders at the White House on Wednesday, where he again
1:25
Speaker 3: offered his full support for Israel.
1:28
Speaker 4: That's why I took my kids, everyone when they turned
1:32
Speaker 4: 14 years old, one at a time, put them on
1:34
Speaker 4: a plane and took them to Dachau. I wanted them
1:36
Speaker 4: to see that you could not not know what was
1:40
Speaker 4: going on walking through those gates. You could not fail
1:44
Speaker 4: to understand as a country what was going on. And
1:49
Speaker 4: that's a fact. It had a profound impact on my
1:52
Speaker 4: children and my grandchildren. Some thought taking a 14-year-old grandchild
1:55
Speaker 4: would not make a mistake, but I took them one
1:57
Speaker 4: at a time. I got three more to go. And folks,
2:01
Speaker 4: it's important. In the days ahead, we're going to continue
2:04
Speaker 4: to work closely with our partners in Israel and around
2:06
Speaker 4: the world to ensure Israel has what it needs to
2:10
Speaker 4: defend its citizens and cities and to respond to these attacks.
2:13
Speaker 4: The United States has Israel's back. And I have yours
2:17
Speaker 4: as well, both at home and abroad.
2:20
Speaker 3: So the president also gave a pretty big speech on Tuesday,
2:24
Speaker 3: addressed the nation, that was widely praised by Jewish and
2:28
Speaker 3: Israeli leaders. The Israeli ambassador to the U.S. called it
2:32
Speaker 3: the most pro-Israel speech from a president in history. How
2:36
Speaker 3: do you think most Americans will react to Biden's response
2:40
Speaker 3: so far?
2:41
Speaker 2: This is clearly, and for obvious reasons, one of those
2:45
Speaker 2: stories that happens abroad that's captured the nation's imagination. It
2:48
Speaker 2: is dominating news coverage, conversations. People are heartbroken and horrified
2:53
Speaker 2: at the images and the stories they're seeing. Obviously, our
2:56
Speaker 2: country has a very close relations with Israel, a very
2:59
Speaker 2: special relationship. As I'm sure you do, I have friends
3:03
Speaker 2: who have family who still live in Israel, people who
3:05
Speaker 2: have been called up into the reserves as part of this,
3:08
Speaker 2: who are living in fear of their lives. People are
3:11
Speaker 2: horrified by what is happening to innocent civilians in Gaza.
3:16
Speaker 2: And I think President Biden has addressed this in a
3:19
Speaker 2: way that people will appropriately see as strong, resolute as
3:24
Speaker 2: a commander in chief. You're seeing both in the round
3:28
Speaker 2: table that we played the clip of, and then the
3:29
Speaker 2: speech you're seeing where I think Biden is at his best,
3:32
Speaker 2: which is delivering a clear, strong message as commander in
3:36
Speaker 2: chief and empathy and understanding for what is happening in
3:40
Speaker 2: the world. And I think his response thus far is
3:43
Speaker 2: being rightly praised.
3:46
Speaker 5: Yeah.
3:46
Speaker 3: I mean, one thing you can say for sure is
3:48
Speaker 3: it is easy to tell when Biden is delivering a
3:54
Speaker 3: speech or making remarks that he truly deeply believes in
3:58
Speaker 3: and feels passionate about. And I think that's been the
4:01
Speaker 3: case with almost all of his remarks since the attack.
4:05
Speaker 3: I think, you know, right now, most people in this
4:07
Speaker 3: country are seeing images and hearing horrific stories of, you know, horrific,
4:12
Speaker 3: gruesome terrorist attacks that have claimed the lives of innocent civilians,
4:16
Speaker 3: including young children and babies and including some Americans. And,
4:21
Speaker 3: I would guess that there will be overwhelming support for
4:25
Speaker 3: Biden's passionate condemnation of those attacks and for his support
4:30
Speaker 3: for the people who were attacked. Second question, do you
4:34
Speaker 3: think Biden faces any political risk by offering unconditional support
4:40
Speaker 3: for Israel at this point?
4:42
Speaker 2: The way this has been discussed on Twitter, on cable,
4:46
Speaker 2: is this idea that the Democratic Party has moved left
4:50
Speaker 2: on Israel in recent years. And you do see this
4:52
Speaker 2: in polling that there is less sort of reflexive support
4:56
Speaker 2: for Israel. But I think that that is a overly
4:59
Speaker 2: simplistic understanding of what has happened. For most of the lives,
5:05
Speaker 2: adult lives of a lot of Democratic voters, they've only
5:07
Speaker 2: really seen Israel under Netanyahu. It's not so much the
5:10
Speaker 2: Democrats per se have moved left, although certainly some have.
5:13
Speaker 2: It is also that the Israeli government and how they
5:15
Speaker 2: have handled Palestinians, their efforts for peace, have moved to
5:19
Speaker 2: the right. and that there is much more open criticism
5:22
Speaker 2: of that, both among voters and certainly among elected Democrats.
5:26
Speaker 2: There's no doubt in my mind that President Biden is
5:28
Speaker 2: deeply concerned about civilian casualties in Gaza, from innocent Palestinians
5:34
Speaker 2: who do not support Hamas, do not support certainly what
5:37
Speaker 2: Hamas did over the weekend, and would leave if they could,
5:42
Speaker 2: but they can't. But he's made a decision, the best
5:46
Speaker 2: way to influence Israeli conduct is not to publicly or
5:49
Speaker 2: even privately pressure Bibi himself. It's to do it through
5:51
Speaker 2: other channels in the government. There may be a point
5:55
Speaker 2: in time in the coming days and weeks where President
5:57
Speaker 2: Biden will be under pressure to say something publicly about
6:01
Speaker 2: how Israel is responding in Gaza. We are not at
6:05
Speaker 2: that point yet. And so we'll have to see what
6:06
Speaker 2: happens then. But as of right now, I think he's
6:08
Speaker 2: approaching this in a way that sounds right and feels
6:13
Speaker 2: right to most people, but there are certainly risks down
6:15
Speaker 2: the line.
6:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the poll you said, it's a Pew
6:19
Speaker 3: poll from March. It's been going around. Democratic voters said
6:23
Speaker 3: their sympathies in the Middle East lie more with the
6:25
Speaker 3: Palestinians than the Israelis, 49% to 38%. But again, that
6:30
Speaker 3: was in March, and that was before this horrific terrorist attack.
6:36
Speaker 3: I would not expect to see the same polling results today.
6:41
Speaker 3: But then, of course, who knows? A week from now,
6:44
Speaker 3: a month from now, six months from now, I do
6:47
Speaker 3: think one thing that we have learned in this country
6:50
Speaker 3: from the aftermath of 9-11 is that what's most important
6:53
Speaker 3: enough and difficult to do is to go after terrorists
6:57
Speaker 3: and terrorist organizations like Hamas without making policy decisions that
7:02
Speaker 3: lead to more war, death, and suffering for everyone involved.
7:07
Speaker 3: And I think if several weeks from now we're seeing
7:10
Speaker 3: more Palestinian deaths, more Israeli deaths, a war that has
7:13
Speaker 3: spread to other Middle Eastern countries, the political dynamics will
7:17
Speaker 3: could change very quickly. But, you know, as you said,
7:20
Speaker 3: Biden has made the decision, and there's some reporting on
7:24
Speaker 3: this in Playbook today, that, you know, back in when
7:28
Speaker 3: the last Israel-Gaza conflict in 2021, Biden's view then was
7:33
Speaker 3: that only by unequivocally backing Israel did he have any
7:36
Speaker 3: chance of influencing Netanyahu if the conflict escalated to a
7:39
Speaker 3: point that the American president needed to urge restraint. And
7:43
Speaker 3: so it seems like he's doing that again now. And
7:46
Speaker 3: he did, you know, on Wednesday at that same event,
7:51
Speaker 3: he said that he told Bibi, quote, with all the
7:54
Speaker 3: anger and frustration, it is important that Israel operates in
7:57
Speaker 3: Gaza according to the rules of war. And I think
8:00
Speaker 3: that is very important to emphasize first and foremost for
8:03
Speaker 3: moral reasons, but also because not following the rules of
8:06
Speaker 3: war is one way that a justified response devolves into
8:10
Speaker 3: a larger war that leads to a lot more people dying, Palestinians, Israelis,
8:15
Speaker 3: and maybe a lot of other people. So it is
8:19
Speaker 3: something to keep in mind. One group of Americans decidedly
8:24
Speaker 3: unimpressed with Biden's response, Republican politicians. As always, they seem
8:29
Speaker 3: to be competing to see who can make the most
8:31
Speaker 3: unhinged comments about the president. And leading the pack right
8:34
Speaker 3: now is self-professed nice guy, Tim Scott, the guy who
8:38
Speaker 3: says conservatives are, quote, starved for hope.
8:40
Speaker 1: Let's listen.
8:41
Speaker 6: So while Hamas carried out these attacks, Joe Biden has
8:47
Speaker 6: blood on his hands. His weakness invited the attack. His
8:54
Speaker 6: cash giveaways to Iran helped fund terrorism. And after the attack,
8:59
Speaker 6: his administration suggested that Israel just stand down.
9:04
Speaker 1: I don't know.
9:04
Speaker 3: I think Lovett's going to start writing better speeches for
9:07
Speaker 3: his favorite candidate. That was Tim Scott's second comment about this,
9:14
Speaker 3: second set of comments about this. So he did a
9:16
Speaker 3: first set of comments, which no one remembers because he
9:18
Speaker 3: didn't say something completely fucking crazy. And he was like,
9:21
Speaker 3: I got to up the crazy so that I can
9:22
Speaker 3: get more attention.
9:24
Speaker 1: And there it is.
9:25
Speaker 3: You know, so now he now he's accusing Joe Biden
9:26
Speaker 3: of having blood on his hands.
9:28
Speaker 1: What is going on there?
9:29
Speaker 3: And do you think anyone believes that shit who doesn't
9:32
Speaker 3: already despise Joe Biden?
9:34
Speaker 2: No one believes that who doesn't despise Joe Biden. And
9:36
Speaker 2: Tim Scott's not trying to appeal to anyone who doesn't
9:38
Speaker 2: despise Joe Biden. Tim Scott's problem is he is losing
9:41
Speaker 2: and he is losing badly. And he's not in one
9:44
Speaker 2: of these situations, a little bit like Nikki Haley, where
9:46
Speaker 2: voters just aren't seeing him. Tim Scott has a bunch
9:49
Speaker 2: of billionaires like Larry Ellison who are pouring tens of
9:52
Speaker 2: million dollars of money into ads for his campaign through
9:55
Speaker 2: a super PAC. He's had as many ads, if not more,
9:58
Speaker 2: run on his behalf than any other person running, including
10:00
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And voters aren't buying what he's selling. So
10:03
Speaker 2: he's decided to make a desperate ploy to go from
10:06
Speaker 2: being the nice guy anti-Trump to being just a low-rent
10:11
Speaker 2: version of Trump. I have no concerns about this politically
10:15
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden, everyone watched it. You can just see
10:18
Speaker 2: how Tim Scott even read the lines. Like he didn't
10:21
Speaker 2: believe them. It was just pure. He, like he practiced
10:23
Speaker 2: them in a mirror to try to sound like someone
10:26
Speaker 2: who thought they might sound sincere. It's totally ridiculous, totally
10:29
Speaker 2: embarrassing and pretty gross on Tim Scott's behalf.
10:32
Speaker 3: Very gross. It's just, it's like, you know, better. And
10:35
Speaker 3: you're just, you're doing this because you're 50 points down
10:39
Speaker 3: to a guy that you're too chicken shit to attack
10:42
Speaker 3: that you're actually running against in the primary. So you're
10:45
Speaker 3: out there saying stuff like, You have a right wing
10:47
Speaker 3: government in Israel, the place that was attacked, praising Joe Biden.
10:53
Speaker 3: But an American politician, a right wing politician in America
10:58
Speaker 3: is saying that Joe Biden has blood.
10:59
Speaker 1: On his hands like it's fucking absurd.
11:01
Speaker 3: So speaking of the guy who's 50 points ahead, Donald Trump,
11:05
Speaker 3: Ron DeSantis and a few others have moved on to
11:07
Speaker 3: another line of attack. I'm pretty sure I jokingly predicted
11:10
Speaker 3: this on our text chain and then it actually happened.
11:13
Speaker 1: Let's let's listen.
11:14
Speaker 7: Instead of keeping terrorists and terrorist sympathizers out of America,
11:19
Speaker 7: the Biden administration is inviting them in.
11:22
Speaker 1: You know why?
11:23
Speaker 7: Because he's got a boss. Who's his boss? Barack Hussein Obama.
11:28
Speaker 2: Do you think our enemies, knowing that we have an
11:30
Speaker 2: open border, are not taking advantage of that?
11:34
Speaker 1: There's going to be a terrorist attack in.
11:36
Speaker 2: This country that we're going to be able to trace
11:38
Speaker 2: back to the southern border.
11:40
Speaker 3: On one hand, it seems like it'd be a bit
11:42
Speaker 3: of a challenge for Hamas to hop on a plane
11:44
Speaker 3: from Gaza to Mexico. I'm not sure if they have
11:47
Speaker 3: direct flights right now. But on the other, there are
11:51
Speaker 3: plenty of polls that consistently show that Biden's weakest approval
11:55
Speaker 3: ratings are on immigration and border issues. Even some Democratic
11:59
Speaker 3: governors and mayors have been criticizing him recently. So does
12:03
Speaker 3: this attack worry you, or is it just too nutty
12:06
Speaker 3: to stick and too many steps?
12:10
Speaker 2: Your prediction that this would happen was so good because
12:13
Speaker 2: it had already happened. Because that morning, I accidentally stumbled
12:17
Speaker 2: on Meet the Press while trying to find the London
12:19
Speaker 2: football game, and I saw Nikki Haley make this exact attack.
12:23
Speaker 2: And it took me back to 2014 when Tom Kott
12:26
Speaker 2: was running for the Senate, and he said that ISIS
12:29
Speaker 2: was going to cross the border during a previous surge
12:33
Speaker 2: in migrant crossings at the border. This is– Republicans can't
12:38
Speaker 2: help themselves here. there is a very legitimate political vulnerability
12:42
Speaker 2: around border issues in immigration. For sure, it seems they've
12:48
Speaker 2: done a very good job of weaponizing it, making it
12:52
Speaker 2: seem worse than it is, taking the worst parts of it.
12:54
Speaker 2: They even attacked Joe Biden for when he does a
12:56
Speaker 2: good job. You constantly see them tweeting out, you know,
12:59
Speaker 2: X number of kilos of fentanyl were caught at the
13:02
Speaker 2: border today. It's like, yes, that's the point. They caught
13:05
Speaker 2: the people or X number of people detained at the border. Yes,
13:07
Speaker 2: they got them. And But this is, once again, a
13:10
Speaker 2: bunch of people who are trying to, they're not trying
13:12
Speaker 2: to appeal to swing voters or Democrats or anyone else.
13:15
Speaker 2: They're trying to show how ridiculous or MAGA-friendly they are
13:19
Speaker 2: to MAGA voters.
13:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, like, I don't think many people are dumb enough
13:25
Speaker 3: to think Hamas is coming over the border, but people
13:28
Speaker 3: aren't happy with the situation at the border. It could
13:31
Speaker 3: make them think that some people crossing the border may
13:33
Speaker 3: want to cause us harm, right? But the idea that,
13:37
Speaker 3: you know, there's, like civilians in Gaza Strip right now
13:41
Speaker 3: are struggling to get out. They can't get out. They
13:43
Speaker 3: can't escape. But like, yeah, Hamas is getting on planes
13:46
Speaker 3: and they're going to Mexico. It's just fucking absurd. And it's, again,
13:49
Speaker 3: it's crass and it's just, it's another example of Republican
13:53
Speaker 3: politicians taking a crisis and just trying to figure out
13:57
Speaker 3: what political opportunity they can, what political advantage they can
14:01
Speaker 3: get out of the crisis by attacking Joe Biden.
14:04
Speaker 1: So pretty gross.
14:06
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, who is always as shrewd as he is
14:10
Speaker 3: thoughtful in these situations, gave a speech in West Palm
14:12
Speaker 3: Beach yesterday that may have created a bit of a
14:15
Speaker 3: problem for him among supporters of Israel and his fellow Republicans.
14:20
Speaker 1: Let's listen.
14:21
Speaker 7: But Hezbollah, they're very smart. And they have a national
14:25
Speaker 7: defense minister or somebody saying, I hope Hezbollah doesn't attack
14:29
Speaker 7: us from the north. So the following morning they attacked.
14:32
Speaker 7: They might not have been doing it, but if you
14:34
Speaker 7: listen to this jerk... you would attack from the north
14:38
Speaker 7: because he said that's our weak spot. I'll never forget
14:41
Speaker 7: that Bibi Netanyahu let us down. That was a very
14:45
Speaker 7: terrible thing.
14:46
Speaker 5: I will say that.
14:47
Speaker 7: And so when I see sometimes the intelligence, you talk
14:51
Speaker 7: about the intelligence or you talk about some of the
14:54
Speaker 7: things that went wrong over the last week, they've got
14:56
Speaker 7: to straighten it out because they're fighting potentially a very
14:59
Speaker 7: big force. They're fighting potentially Iran. And when they have...
15:05
Speaker 7: People saying the wrong things. Everything they say is being
15:08
Speaker 7: digested by these people because they're vicious and they're smart.
15:12
Speaker 1: So Ron DeSantis, remember him? Barely. He's still around. Barely.
15:17
Speaker 1: He immediately tweeted that Trump's comments were absurd. Hate to
15:20
Speaker 1: say it.
15:21
Speaker 3: Agree with Ron DeSantis. What was going on there? What
15:24
Speaker 3: was Trump thinking about? Uh, like what, where did that
15:27
Speaker 3: come from? Is that just like him being a pundit,
15:30
Speaker 3: him just freelancing, him just trying to take credit for everything?
15:33
Speaker 3: Cause he also, he was talking about, yeah, when BB
15:36
Speaker 3: let us down and, and you know, they, uh, they
15:39
Speaker 3: killed the, uh, the IRGC guy, uh, Soleimani and, uh,
15:46
Speaker 3: and he's like, I got it done. And then BB
15:48
Speaker 3: tried to take credit for it, but it's just like, what,
15:51
Speaker 3: what was he doing?
15:52
Speaker 1: What was that?
15:54
Speaker 2: You asking after playing a Trump clip, what was he
15:57
Speaker 2: thinking is such a funny way to do it? He
16:01
Speaker 2: was thinking about nothing.
16:03
Speaker 3: But you think in a situation like this, he's like,
16:06
Speaker 3: all right, I'm going to follow the other Republican. There's
16:09
Speaker 3: a playbook out there that the party is using, right?
16:11
Speaker 3: Joe Biden has blood on his hands. We all love Israel.
16:15
Speaker 3: Even if he was being crass, it would be an
16:18
Speaker 3: easy playbook to follow. Instead, he's just got to insert
16:22
Speaker 3: himself in there and be like, you know, Bibi, I
16:24
Speaker 3: had some problems. I'm much stronger, much stronger with Iran.
16:27
Speaker 3: You wouldn't believe how strong I am.
16:29
Speaker 2: We have talked in recent months on this podcast about
16:32
Speaker 2: how Trump has been more disciplined. You see him reading
16:34
Speaker 2: the prompter more. He's clearly being prepped for his interviews,
16:37
Speaker 2: particularly the ones with mainstream media in ways in which
16:39
Speaker 2: he never was at any previous point in his political career.
16:43
Speaker 2: This is not one of those times. This is where
16:44
Speaker 2: he has defaulted back to cable news viewer candidate. He's just,
16:49
Speaker 2: he saw that, he saw some clip from the Israeli
16:51
Speaker 2: minister online. Maybe he heard someone talk about it and
16:54
Speaker 2: he just decided to start, open his mouth and let
16:56
Speaker 2: it all come out without any, he's just telling you
16:59
Speaker 2: what's on his mind, just telling you what he's thinking.
17:01
Speaker 2: He hasn't really formulated the thoughts yet.
17:03
Speaker 1: He's obviously- I'll tell you, it gives me a little hope.
17:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is honestly one of the more hopeful moments
17:07
Speaker 2: we've had as it comes to 2024 election is that
17:10
Speaker 2: he has not changed that much and he still will,
17:13
Speaker 2: in high leverage moments, default to being the general dunderhead
17:17
Speaker 2: candidate that he is.
17:19
Speaker 3: I mean, I know this is a bit of a
17:20
Speaker 3: tired and unproductive game, but imagine.
17:22
Speaker 5: If Joe Biden.
17:23
Speaker 2: But let's play it.
17:24
Speaker 3: But imagine if Joe Biden in the last week had
17:28
Speaker 3: said in a speech that Bibi let him down, the
17:31
Speaker 3: Israeli defense minister is a jerk, Hezbollah is smart, and
17:35
Speaker 3: Israel needs to strengthen themselves up.
17:38
Speaker 1: Imagine that.
17:40
Speaker 3: Also, like, last month, last month, during Rosh Hashanah, Trump
17:44
Speaker 3: said that Jewish Americans who didn't support him, quote, voted
17:48
Speaker 3: to destroy America and Israel, which was not the first
17:52
Speaker 3: time that he had peddled the dual loyalty trope in
17:56
Speaker 3: his career. He had dinner with Nick Fuentes, the white nationalist, neo-Nazi,
18:02
Speaker 3: anti-Semitic fucking goon who just said over the weekend that
18:07
Speaker 3: Israel's intelligence failure was suspicious in light of how Bibi's
18:11
Speaker 3: government would benefit politically from the attack. That was Trump's
18:15
Speaker 3: dinner date.
18:16
Speaker 2: I mean, I just, you're right. It's an unproductive game,
18:20
Speaker 2: but it has to be said all the time. I
18:22
Speaker 2: don't under, I don't really, I guess we can do
18:25
Speaker 2: some sort of exegesis of modern media culture, but it's
18:29
Speaker 2: mind boggling that Trump's comments are not, they are a
18:32
Speaker 2: bigger deal in Israel than they are in the United States.
18:35
Speaker 2: And understandably, I understand why People in Israel will be
18:39
Speaker 2: upset at Donald Trump attacking Israel at this moment. But
18:41
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's running to be president of the United States.
18:43
Speaker 2: He's leading the Republican. He's the leader of Republican primaries
18:44
Speaker 2: up by 50 points. He makes absurd comments that if
18:49
Speaker 2: they had come from a, which we will get to
18:50
Speaker 2: in a second, from a member of Congress in the
18:53
Speaker 2: Democratic caucus, are treated as a bigger deal than Donald
18:56
Speaker 2: Trump saying it. We're just like, ha, ha, ha. What
18:58
Speaker 2: a knucklehead. Who cares? And it's part of a pattern
19:00
Speaker 2: of behavior. It's a demonstration of how he's unfit for office.
19:04
Speaker 2: It does speak to an asymmetry in the media environment.
19:08
Speaker 2: that Democrats do not have the capacity and maybe the
19:11
Speaker 2: willingness to lift these things up and make Republicans respond
19:15
Speaker 2: to them.
19:18
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fucking wild. All right.
19:33
Speaker 3: So as you were just alluding to, there's also this
19:36
Speaker 3: Axios headline, that seems like it was designed to trigger
19:39
Speaker 3: just about everyone. Squad comments on Hamas reignite Dems Israel tensions.
19:46
Speaker 3: So this is a story about how some of the
19:47
Speaker 3: most progressive House Democrats initially reacted to the Hamas attack,
19:51
Speaker 3: especially Cori Bush, who called for ending U.S. aid to
19:54
Speaker 3: Israel and Rashida Tlaib, who declined to criticize Hamas and blamed, quote,
19:59
Speaker 3: the apartheid system that creates the dehumanizing conditions that can
20:02
Speaker 3: lead to resistance. When White House Press Secretary Corinne Jean-Pierre
20:06
Speaker 3: was asked about these comments, she called them, quote, wrong, repugnant,
20:10
Speaker 3: and disgraceful. And now Republicans are hammering every Democrat who
20:15
Speaker 3: hasn't condemned these comments. What's your take on this drama?
20:20
Speaker 2: That you and I have made a series of very
20:22
Speaker 2: poor life choices that require us to A, read that story,
20:25
Speaker 2: and then B, sit in front of a microphone and
20:26
Speaker 2: talk about it.
20:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's who we are. That's our decision.
20:31
Speaker 2: The lack of foresight there on our part. It is
20:35
Speaker 2: an example of how the political media culture in the
20:39
Speaker 2: most consequential important moments drags us to the least consequential,
20:43
Speaker 2: least important parts of any one story. A small percentage
20:46
Speaker 2: of Democrats said something that a lot of Democrats disagree with.
20:50
Speaker 2: And now every other Democrat has to publicly come out
20:53
Speaker 2: and condemn that. To what end? What does that accomplish?
20:56
Speaker 2: What is the politics of that? As we were saying earlier,
20:59
Speaker 2: why aren't Republicans forced to condemn what Donald Trump has said?
21:02
Speaker 2: Why are Republicans forced to condemn? Imagine, let's just take
21:05
Speaker 2: an example. Imagine if during the Democratic primary, Eric Swalwell
21:10
Speaker 2: or Julian Castro or some other person who was not
21:13
Speaker 2: going to win the primary said Donald Trump had blood
21:16
Speaker 2: on his hands for an attack against Israel.
21:20
Speaker 1: Every single Democrat would have to- Would be having a problem.
21:22
Speaker 2: Every single Democrat would have to condemn that. And that
21:25
Speaker 2: did not happen here. And Republicans with some enabling of
21:28
Speaker 2: the media are putting Democrats in a position where the
21:30
Speaker 2: focus is on our division instead of the fact that
21:31
Speaker 2: 98% or 99% of Democrats are unified in what the
21:36
Speaker 2: response should be in their comments in support of Israel.
21:38
Speaker 2: And we're worrying about the statements of a small handful
21:41
Speaker 2: of Democrats, which just, it makes no sense. It is not,
21:46
Speaker 2: it's annoying. Yeah.
21:46
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's the incentive structure for Republican politicians.
21:49
Speaker 1: It's who they are. It's, but it's also, it's the
21:52
Speaker 1: media environment.
21:53
Speaker 3: It's social media, a little preview, you know, of offline
21:56
Speaker 3: this week, Max and I are going to be talking
21:58
Speaker 3: about this, but like we have, all been hit with
22:01
Speaker 3: the most extreme or dumbest or most inappropriate comments or
22:10
Speaker 3: conspiracies or lies from all over the place over the
22:13
Speaker 3: last week if you are trying to follow along on
22:18
Speaker 3: social media. And then, of course, things from social media
22:20
Speaker 3: can jump to cable and then they can actually affect
22:25
Speaker 3: actual politician statements and responses. And so it's a complete
22:28
Speaker 3: fucking mess. I mean, look, I think To the statements themselves,
22:32
Speaker 3: like I think it is entirely valid to criticize the
22:36
Speaker 3: Israeli government, to urge restraint, to call for peace, to
22:38
Speaker 3: express sympathy for Palestinians and concern for the loss of
22:41
Speaker 3: life on both sides. But I also think you can
22:44
Speaker 3: only do those things if you start with a clear
22:47
Speaker 3: and unequivocal statement that places the blame for these attacks
22:52
Speaker 3: on the Hamas terrorists who committed them. And I also
22:55
Speaker 3: think the reason that you have to do that is
22:57
Speaker 3: not necessarily just like, performative or political, it's because you
23:02
Speaker 3: can't let people think that you might believe that terrorism
23:07
Speaker 3: is a legitimate or even understandable form of resistance. Israeli
23:12
Speaker 3: occupation of Gaza does not justify or even explain someone
23:18
Speaker 3: deciding to murder children and babies, even though that occupation
23:24
Speaker 3: has led to suffering and death. And if you release
23:28
Speaker 3: a statement that isn't crystal clear on that point, it's
23:31
Speaker 3: not just that you're going to be criticized or shamed
23:32
Speaker 3: or whatever.
23:33
Speaker 1: You will lose the ability.
23:35
Speaker 3: To have your more legitimate criticisms heard by people. And
23:39
Speaker 3: I think that is the problem. And look, you know, AOC,
23:43
Speaker 3: who's also been very critical of the Israeli government, she
23:49
Speaker 3: did it right. Like she released a statement that said,
23:51
Speaker 3: I condemn Hamas's attack in the strongest possible terms. No
23:54
Speaker 3: child and family should ever endure this kind of violence
23:56
Speaker 3: and fear, and this violence will not solve the ongoing
23:59
Speaker 3: oppression and occupation in the region.
24:01
Speaker 1: There you go. You did it.
24:03
Speaker 3: Look, like you said, it is a couple Democrats in Congress.
24:07
Speaker 3: It's also been like a lot of student organizations and
24:11
Speaker 3: a lot of other organizations here and there. And again,
24:14
Speaker 3: it gets blown way out of proportion because we do
24:17
Speaker 3: not know how many people these organizations actually represent. They
24:22
Speaker 3: are kids oftentimes being dumb. And so it gets blown
24:25
Speaker 3: out of proportion and like the whole left gets painted
24:27
Speaker 3: like this. But if you're someone who wants to persuade
24:31
Speaker 3: people about what you believe is terrible policy by a
24:35
Speaker 3: terrible government in Israel, then, you know, you have to
24:38
Speaker 3: at least condemn terrorist attacks when they happen.
24:41
Speaker 2: I mean, you're exactly right that you have to be
24:45
Speaker 2: able to hold several independent but related ideas in your
24:49
Speaker 2: head at the same time. that what Hamas did was horrendous, inhumane, inexcusable,
24:55
Speaker 2: and a response is 100% necessary. You also can believe
24:59
Speaker 2: and should believe correctly, I think, that the Netanyahu government's
25:04
Speaker 2: policy in Gaza and the West Bank is substantively wrong,
25:09
Speaker 2: morally wrong, has made the situation worse, but does not
25:13
Speaker 2: in no way explain, justify what happened. And also believe
25:18
Speaker 2: that the Israeli government should do everything they possibly can
25:21
Speaker 2: to avoid civilian casualties in the response. All of those
25:25
Speaker 2: things can be true at the same time and understand that.
25:29
Speaker 2: What bothers me about this is that we are defaulting
25:34
Speaker 2: again to this sort of post 9-11 Iraq war performative
25:39
Speaker 2: politics of we're going to take the comments of a
25:42
Speaker 2: small handful of people, either a couple members of Congress,
25:45
Speaker 2: student organizations, and we are going to use them as
25:49
Speaker 2: an avatar for the entire Democratic Party, the entire left,
25:52
Speaker 2: the entire world of people who have real substantive moral
25:54
Speaker 2: criticisms of how the Israeli government under Netanyahu has conducted itself.
25:59
Speaker 2: And I was talking to some people over the weekend
26:02
Speaker 2: who were not involved in politics in those days about
26:06
Speaker 2: Congress renaming French fries Freedom Fries because we were mad
26:11
Speaker 2: at France. The fact that the Dixie Chicks got essentially
26:14
Speaker 2: banished cancel cultured out of American life, couldn't perform in
26:18
Speaker 2: public because they were critical of Bush. I worked for
26:22
Speaker 2: a Democratic politician who criticized Bush while Bush was abroad
26:25
Speaker 2: after 9-11 and was basically destroyed at home politically. And
26:29
Speaker 2: that part is, there is a very real conversation about
26:33
Speaker 2: policy here, the response here, what happens next, and we're
26:37
Speaker 2: focusing on the least relevant parts of it. The amount
26:40
Speaker 2: of time and energy dedicated to a small handful of
26:43
Speaker 2: statements from a small handful of students representing a small
26:45
Speaker 2: handful of student associations is so counterproductive and dumb against
26:49
Speaker 2: what is a very real ongoing tragedy with huge implications
26:53
Speaker 2: for the region.
26:54
Speaker 5: And the world.
26:55
Speaker 1: Yeah.
26:57
Speaker 3: It is the fucked up world, political environment, media environment
27:01
Speaker 3: we live in. And so for those of us who
27:06
Speaker 3: condemn the attacks but also want– a lasting peace in
27:11
Speaker 3: the Middle East and believe that, you know, there should
27:14
Speaker 3: be a two-state solution and all the other things that
27:16
Speaker 3: we all believe, like, it is incumbent upon all of
27:20
Speaker 3: us who are working towards that future to be as
27:23
Speaker 3: disciplined as possible in our statements, knowing that the world
27:27
Speaker 3: is as fucked up as you say it is and
27:29
Speaker 3: that that's out there. You know, it's just, I don't,
27:32
Speaker 3: and I think that's a lesson for, like, a lot
27:35
Speaker 3: of student activists, too, that if you're, like, part of
27:39
Speaker 3: Resistance and part of activism is some measure of discipline
27:45
Speaker 3: in what you say and how you say it. And
27:48
Speaker 3: that's not just performative, but it's to make sure that
27:52
Speaker 3: you retain the moral authority to fight for the cause
27:55
Speaker 3: that you believe is just.
27:57
Speaker 2: Your goal is to persuade, not perform.
27:59
Speaker 1: That's right.
28:00
Speaker 7: All right.
28:01
Speaker 3: Believe it or not, Republicans found the time to focus
28:03
Speaker 3: on other issues this week, especially in the House, in
28:06
Speaker 3: a behind-closed-doors secret ballot vote on Wednesday. Steve Scalise won
28:10
Speaker 3: the nomination to be Speaker of the House, edging out
28:13
Speaker 3: Jim Jordan 113 to 99. But that's just Republicans. As
28:19
Speaker 3: we know, you need a majority of all House members
28:22
Speaker 3: to become Speaker. All the Democrats will vote for Hakeem Jeffries,
28:26
Speaker 3: which means Republicans can only afford to lose a few votes.
28:30
Speaker 3: Exact number, depending on who's in attendance. And already, some
28:34
Speaker 3: of the party's biggest attention seekers are saying they intend
28:37
Speaker 3: to vote for Jim Jordan on the floor.
28:39
Speaker 1: Let's listen.
28:40
Speaker 8: I'm not supporting Steve Scalise. I'll be voting for Jim Jordan. Unfortunately,
28:44
Speaker 8: Steve is going through a cancer battle of his own. And,
28:49
Speaker 8: you know, I like Steve Scalise a lot, and I
28:50
Speaker 8: like him so much. I would like to see him
28:53
Speaker 8: put his full efforts into defeating that.
28:56
Speaker 2: I plan on voting for Jim Jordan on the floor.
28:59
Speaker 8: I personally cannot in good conscience vote for someone who
29:03
Speaker 8: attended a white supremacist conference and compared himself to David Duke.
29:08
Speaker 3: So that was Marjorie Taylor Greene saying you can't have
29:12
Speaker 3: cancer and be speaker.
29:15
Speaker 2: No, she just loves him so much.
29:17
Speaker 3: She loves him so much that she wants him to
29:20
Speaker 3: all his energy on fighting cancer and not being speaker.
29:22
Speaker 1: It's really classy.
29:24
Speaker 3: And then Nancy Mace, who's just really trying to get
29:27
Speaker 3: attention every way she can. Wearing an A on her
29:31
Speaker 3: shirt because she was like a scarlet letter the other
29:34
Speaker 3: day because she said she's been silenced, which is funny
29:37
Speaker 3: because I just think everywhere you look, there's a lot
29:39
Speaker 3: of Nancy Mace.
29:41
Speaker 2: So also she should, she should, she should read the book.
29:45
Speaker 2: Maybe not.
29:49
Speaker 3: So as of this recording, Scalise doesn't have the votes.
29:51
Speaker 3: There's still no speaker. It's not clear what the holdouts
29:54
Speaker 3: actually want. Punchbowl estimates that Scalise needs 107 more votes
30:01
Speaker 3: and that there are probably 20 to 30 never Scalise votes.
30:05
Speaker 3: We used to have never McCarthy. Now we got never Scalise.
30:08
Speaker 3: Matt Gaetz is for him. Matt Gaetz was out there
30:10
Speaker 3: saying long live Speaker Scalise. So they got Gaetz on board,
30:14
Speaker 3: but now they've lost a whole bunch of others. What
30:15
Speaker 3: the hell is wrong with these people and how do
30:17
Speaker 3: you think this gets resolved? What is this?
30:19
Speaker 2: I have no idea how it gets resolved. I thought
30:21
Speaker 2: yesterday when we were working on the outline... after Scalise
30:24
Speaker 2: won the nomination, and then Jim Jordan came out and
30:26
Speaker 2: said that he was going to vote for Scalise, and
30:28
Speaker 2: he offered to give the nominating speech. I thought we
30:30
Speaker 2: were on the glide path to Scalise becoming Speaker, the
30:33
Speaker 2: Republicans just realizing they don't have the energy to go
30:37
Speaker 2: through what they went through both in January and then
30:40
Speaker 2: last week with 1,000 votes to try to get to
30:43
Speaker 2: 217 and not getting there. They would all just go
30:45
Speaker 2: with the path of least resistance. But alas, these people
30:48
Speaker 2: remain poorly acquainted with their own self-interest, and there's no
30:51
Speaker 2: idea how this There is, you know, Dave Wasserman of
30:54
Speaker 2: Click Political Report tweeted something that made a lot of
30:56
Speaker 2: sense to me. He says, there may be no Republican
30:58
Speaker 2: who can get 217. And the most interesting thing I've seen,
31:01
Speaker 2: and this is obviously going to change a thousand times
31:04
Speaker 2: after we've published this podcast, but is that there are
31:08
Speaker 2: some Republicans are thinking about how they can give Speaker
31:12
Speaker 2: pro-temporary Patrick McHenry, who's just sitting there in the seat
31:15
Speaker 2: holding the gavel and just kicking Democrats out of their offices,
31:18
Speaker 2: how they can give him more power so the House
31:20
Speaker 2: can start operating. as a temporary fill-in, which may be
31:24
Speaker 2: the only thing they can do in the short term.
31:26
Speaker 2: Because it doesn't seem like Steve Scalise is getting there.
31:29
Speaker 2: The worm seems to have turned against him. Jim Jordan
31:31
Speaker 2: clearly doesn't have the votes.
31:33
Speaker 3: Again, I know this is fantasy politics in this day
31:37
Speaker 3: and age, but.
31:38
Speaker 2: Give it to me, Sorkin.
31:39
Speaker 1: There's also, yeah, there's also some report.
31:41
Speaker 3: Hakeem Jeffries has been very clear that he's looking for
31:45
Speaker 3: ways to work with Republicans to elect a Republican speaker
31:49
Speaker 3: if- They are willing to work with Democrats on a
31:53
Speaker 3: few issues, raising the threshold for the motion to vacate
31:57
Speaker 3: a plan to fund the government beyond November 17th. So
32:00
Speaker 3: we don't have a government shutdown promise to bring legislation
32:03
Speaker 3: to the floor, providing aid to Israel and Ukraine. Of course,
32:07
Speaker 3: Republicans are not taking Jeffries up on this yet, though
32:11
Speaker 3: there's been some scuttlebutt that like maybe some. moderate, more
32:14
Speaker 3: moderate Republicans, if this floor fight now goes on forever,
32:17
Speaker 3: we go with another 15 votes or 17 votes or
32:20
Speaker 3: 100 votes on the floor and everyone's screaming on TV
32:22
Speaker 3: all day, maybe some Republicans will be like, yeah, let's
32:25
Speaker 3: give the Democrats some wins so that we can have
32:28
Speaker 3: a functioning House and still have a Republican speaker. I
32:30
Speaker 3: will not be holding my breath for that, but that is,
32:33
Speaker 3: they could.
32:34
Speaker 1: Do that, right?
32:35
Speaker 3: If you want to be a responsible governing party, you're
32:39
Speaker 3: all out there screaming at the TV about how it's
32:41
Speaker 3: embarrassing and the world is watching.
32:43
Speaker 1: This is what the Ayatollah wants.
32:47
Speaker 3: I heard that from, I think, Mike McCaul at the
32:50
Speaker 3: Foreign Relations Committee.
32:51
Speaker 2: Avid, punchbowl reader of the Ayatollah.
32:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hamas, this is what Hamas wants. They're watching cable.
32:59
Speaker 3: They're seeing Nancy Mace and they're cheering.
33:02
Speaker 1: Here's the thing.
33:03
Speaker 3: Of course, this was not going to be resolved behind
33:06
Speaker 3: closed doors among Republicans because there were no television cameras there.
33:10
Speaker 3: The whole thing now is about getting attention. These people
33:13
Speaker 3: want to have a floor fight. They want to have
33:15
Speaker 3: roadblocked coverage of them all yelling on the floor of
33:18
Speaker 3: the house and talking about why Steve Scalise sucks because he's,
33:23
Speaker 3: you know, establishment and a rhino and all the bullshit.
33:26
Speaker 3: And then they're going to talk about how great Jim
33:28
Speaker 3: Jordan is. And then they can all get on TV
33:30
Speaker 3: and that gets them grassroots fundraising and that gets them
33:32
Speaker 3: more fame. And that's why Nancy Mace is on like
33:35
Speaker 3: every side of every issue. You know, she's attacking her
33:38
Speaker 3: party on their abortion stance. But then she's with Jim Jordan.
33:42
Speaker 3: She's on Steve Bannon's podcast, even though she voted to
33:45
Speaker 3: hold Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress and sent him
33:48
Speaker 3: to jail. The whole thing is fucking nuts. There's no ideology.
33:54
Speaker 3: There's no nothing at this party. They're just attention seeking fucking.
34:00
Speaker 1: It's wild. I don't know.
34:01
Speaker 7: Yeah.
34:01
Speaker 2: I mean, what is happening here is the direct result
34:06
Speaker 2: of a Republican Party that is incapable of governing. If
34:09
Speaker 2: you hate government and your reason for existence as a
34:13
Speaker 2: political entity, the only thing that patches over all of
34:16
Speaker 2: your various ideological disputes is a desire to destroy government
34:19
Speaker 2: at every level, this is what you end up with.
34:21
Speaker 2: It's how you end up with Donald Trump as your president.
34:23
Speaker 2: It's how you end up without a speaker. It's how
34:25
Speaker 2: you end up with debt ceiling crises and shutdowns. It's
34:27
Speaker 2: frankly how you end up with George Bush in Iraq
34:29
Speaker 2: and Katrina. It is an argument about why Republicans cannot
34:34
Speaker 2: be allowed near the levers of power for the rest
34:36
Speaker 2: of time. Like, this is it. This is what a
34:38
Speaker 2: Trump administration will be like again. This is what a
34:40
Speaker 2: Republican Senate will be like. This is the Republican Party.
34:43
Speaker 2: This is who they are. This is what they do.
34:45
Speaker 2: And it is dangerously dysfunctional.
34:46
Speaker 3: And it is just, it is a desperation for fame
34:51
Speaker 3: at any cost, right? And it's like these people would either,
34:54
Speaker 3: they'd be fine being on a reality television show, an influencer,
35:01
Speaker 3: or a job in politics because then they can maybe
35:04
Speaker 3: get a show on Fox or Or they can go
35:07
Speaker 3: do a couple of cable hits while they have a
35:08
Speaker 3: nice office in Congress.
35:10
Speaker 1: That's all they want. That is all they want. And
35:12
Speaker 1: guess what?
35:13
Speaker 3: And one of them who went that route became president
35:17
Speaker 3: of the United States and is still their fucking cult leader.
35:20
Speaker 2: I think it's actually a little different than just a
35:24
Speaker 2: desire for fame, pure fame, full stop. It is that
35:29
Speaker 2: they understand, and Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert and, frankly,
35:32
Speaker 2: Donald Trump have shown them that attention is power. you
35:36
Speaker 2: don't have influence Republican party be able to raise online
35:39
Speaker 2: money by the rising to be the ranking member of
35:42
Speaker 2: the Homeland security committee. It's by being a MAGA media superstar.
35:46
Speaker 6: Yeah.
35:47
Speaker 3: Well, some, some of them certainly want power, but some
35:49
Speaker 3: of them, cause you know, like Steve Scalise has called
35:52
Speaker 3: in the holdouts and he's like, what do you want?
35:54
Speaker 1: What can I give you for your vote? And they're like, nothing.
35:56
Speaker 1: I just don't like you. I just want to yell
35:59
Speaker 1: about you on TV.
36:00
Speaker 2: He doesn't seem likable.
36:02
Speaker 3: It's not like they're like, I have this secret legislation
36:04
Speaker 3: that's going to hurt people that I want you to pass.
36:06
Speaker 1: They're just like, well, I don't know. I just, I
36:08
Speaker 1: don't know. I want to get more airtime. Let's turn
36:22
Speaker 1: to the Senate.
36:23
Speaker 3: Which Republicans are trying their hardest to fill with as
36:25
Speaker 3: many kooks as the House, starting with Arizona's most telegenic
36:29
Speaker 3: election denier and self-described MAGA mama bear, Carrie Lake. The
36:34
Speaker 3: former news anchor who lost her bid for governor in
36:37
Speaker 3: 2022 officially launched her 2024 Senate campaign this week, complete
36:40
Speaker 3: with an endorsement from Donald Trump. Let's listen to her
36:43
Speaker 3: a little bit from her announcement speech.
36:45
Speaker 5: Well, let me tell you, this mama bear has a
36:47
Speaker 5: whole lot of fight left in her. And I'm really
36:51
Speaker 5: tired of watching our politicians retreat. They have surrendered far
36:56
Speaker 5: too many hills. We're on the final hill right now.
37:00
Speaker 5: And I'm not surrendering this hill. I am not going
37:04
Speaker 5: to retreat. I'm going to stand on top of this
37:07
Speaker 5: hill with every single one of you. And I know
37:11
Speaker 5: you're by my side as I formally announce my candidacy
37:16
Speaker 5: for the United States Senate.
37:18
Speaker 1: What is the hill? What hill?
37:20
Speaker 3: Is the hill an issue? Again, there's no real ideology here.
37:25
Speaker 1: There's no issue. She's just on a hill somewhere.
37:28
Speaker 2: It's a little more like a grassy knoll than a hill, frankly.
37:34
Speaker 3: So a lot of Republicans and Democrats, including me, thought
37:37
Speaker 3: Lake would be a tough candidate to beat in 2022. Fortunately,
37:40
Speaker 3: we were all wrong. Now that she lost, there are
37:42
Speaker 3: some Democrats who've been hoping she'd get in the race.
37:45
Speaker 1: What do you think?
37:46
Speaker 2: I think you're not giving yourself enough credit. She was
37:48
Speaker 2: a hard candidate to beat.
37:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, she was. She was.
37:51
Speaker 3: But I thought that if there was going to be
37:55
Speaker 3: a MAGA election-denying candidate that won besides him back then,
38:00
Speaker 3: I thought she'd be one of the ones at the
38:01
Speaker 3: top of the list.
38:02
Speaker 2: She came the closest. She won by six-tenths of a
38:05
Speaker 2: percent on the same day that Mark Kelly beat Blake
38:09
Speaker 2: Masters by six percent.
38:11
Speaker 3: Blake Masters is just a historically bad candidate, which is
38:14
Speaker 3: why he's also running, by the way, in this race
38:16
Speaker 3: in single digits.
38:17
Speaker 2: I thought he had dropped out.
38:19
Speaker 1: He did?
38:20
Speaker 3: I just saw a poll with him at like, maybe
38:21
Speaker 3: he is. He's at like 4% or 5%. She's at
38:24
Speaker 3: like 40%.
38:26
Speaker 2: I guess whether Blake Masters is running in this race
38:28
Speaker 2: is an existential question because he's not winning. So it's like.
38:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, right. So what do you think about her entrance
38:35
Speaker 1: into this race?
38:36
Speaker 2: I don't think we should take her lightly. I mean,
38:39
Speaker 2: there is a reason she did better than all the
38:42
Speaker 2: other MAGA extremist Trump facsimile candidates in 2022. She does
38:48
Speaker 2: the Trump Act better than anyone else. She is, I mean,
38:53
Speaker 2: tortured Hill metaphor aside, she has onstage charisma and appeal.
38:58
Speaker 2: She gets the entertainment part of the Trump show in
39:01
Speaker 2: ways that others don't. I would imagine, and we'll get
39:05
Speaker 2: to this in a sec, that the Democrat, that Ruben
39:06
Speaker 2: Gallego would be favored against her. But you would rather
39:09
Speaker 2: run against Blake Masters than Carrie Lake. Like she has
39:13
Speaker 2: a shot. She certainly can win the race and we
39:14
Speaker 2: shouldn't take it for granted.
39:16
Speaker 1: Yeah.
39:16
Speaker 3: So now let's talk about the full race, assuming that
39:19
Speaker 3: she wins the primary, which is just an assumption right now.
39:21
Speaker 3: But again, she's leading by a lot in the Republican primary.
39:24
Speaker 3: Kyrsten Sinema hasn't officially announced that she's running for reelection.
39:28
Speaker 3: If she does, it'll be a three-way race. with Democrat
39:31
Speaker 3: Ruben Gallego and, again, most likely Carrie Lake. Do you
39:35
Speaker 3: think Sinema being in the race hurts Gallego, helps Gallego,
39:40
Speaker 3: or too soon to say?
39:43
Speaker 2: All of the polling that I have seen, both public
39:45
Speaker 2: and private, shows that Gallego can win a three-way race.
39:51
Speaker 2: I think the dynamics here as relates to what relates
39:54
Speaker 2: with cinema is similar to the way we're analyzing a
39:57
Speaker 2: three-way race with Robert Kennedy Jr. in it at the
40:01
Speaker 2: presidential level, which is cinema like RFK Jr. is much
40:05
Speaker 2: more liked by Republicans than Democrats. Democrats actually hate Kyrsten Sinema.
40:10
Speaker 2: She has very low approbations among Democrats. But if you
40:13
Speaker 2: think that a no-labels candidate hurts Joe Biden against Trump,
40:18
Speaker 2: then you have to imagine that Sinema makes life harder
40:23
Speaker 2: for Gallego because there are going to be people who
40:25
Speaker 2: don't love Gallego, don't love Democrats, but do not like
40:29
Speaker 2: Kerry Lake. So Kyrsten Sinema gives them a place to
40:31
Speaker 2: go other than Gallego. So two-way race between Gallego and
40:36
Speaker 2: Kerry Lake, I imagine, is much better for Gallego, but
40:39
Speaker 2: he can still win a three-way race if Kyrsten Sinema
40:41
Speaker 2: decides to run to The truth is she has not
40:45
Speaker 2: said she's not running, but she also has done nothing
40:47
Speaker 2: to prepare for a race. She is a prodigious fundraiser
40:49
Speaker 2: when she's running, and she's done almost nothing in terms
40:51
Speaker 2: of fundraising over the last couple cycles. So there's some
40:53
Speaker 2: indications she may not run.
40:55
Speaker 3: It's a good point about your no labels comparison, but
40:58
Speaker 3: there is something different about it to me, which is,
41:01
Speaker 3: first of all, we don't have a no labels candidate yet.
41:03
Speaker 3: So that candidate could theoretically be taking votes from Biden
41:08
Speaker 3: right now.
41:09
Speaker 1: We don't know who it is.
41:11
Speaker 3: Kyrsten Sinema is a known quantity and a very disliked
41:14
Speaker 3: quantity by especially Democrats. The reason people would maybe defect
41:19
Speaker 3: from Biden versus the reasons people would defect from Gallego
41:23
Speaker 3: might be different as well. Because, you know, there's the
41:26
Speaker 3: Biden age thing seems to be people's biggest issue and his,
41:29
Speaker 3: you know, handling, he's an incumbent handling of the economy,
41:31
Speaker 3: whatever it may be. Gallego doesn't come to the race
41:35
Speaker 3: with any of those problems. But again, it's like, it's
41:38
Speaker 3: too early to tell. You sent me the split ticket
41:41
Speaker 3: analysis on this race. Sinema's team thinks she can get
41:45
Speaker 3: 10 to 15% of Democrats, 25 to 35% of Republicans,
41:50
Speaker 3: and 60 to 70% of independents. All three of those
41:53
Speaker 3: numbers seem pretty high.
41:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, they seem quite high.
41:57
Speaker 3: So to win the race, she'd have to, just on
41:59
Speaker 3: the Republican number, she'd have to get 600,000 people in
42:02
Speaker 3: Arizona to vote for her and Donald Trump.
42:06
Speaker 1: Which also seems like a tall order.
42:09
Speaker 2: Or her and a third candidate for president.
42:11
Speaker 1: Right.
42:11
Speaker 3: Especially if like Carrie Lake is in the race, right?
42:14
Speaker 3: Like if you're a Trump voter, it's hard to imagine
42:17
Speaker 3: a Trump voter who declines to vote for Carrie Lake,
42:21
Speaker 3: but does vote for Kyrsten Sinema.
42:23
Speaker 2: If you were in a three-way race, I would say
42:26
Speaker 2: Gallego is the most likely to win. Carrie Lake is
42:28
Speaker 2: the second most likely to win. And Kyrsten Sinema is
42:30
Speaker 2: a distant third.
42:31
Speaker 1: In that way. I would agree with that.
42:32
Speaker 2: I also think how Kyrsten Sinema runs her race is,
42:35
Speaker 2: has an impact on Gallego's chances. If she gets in
42:37
Speaker 2: the race and all she does is attack Gallego for
42:41
Speaker 2: being too liberal, and he's basically fighting a two-front war
42:44
Speaker 2: against Kerry Lake and Kyrsten Sinema, that makes his life
42:49
Speaker 2: harder than if she is attacking equally or attacking no one.
42:52
Speaker 2: And so the conduct of the race doesn't matter. That's
42:55
Speaker 2: the same analysis I bring, too. RFK Jr. in a
42:58
Speaker 2: Biden-Trump race. If he's just going to attack Joe Biden
43:00
Speaker 2: from the left on various issues, that makes life harder
43:04
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden, even if he's more popular among Republicans
43:06
Speaker 2: and Democrats.
43:07
Speaker 5: Yeah.
43:07
Speaker 3: And then it also matters, of course, what Carrie Lake does.
43:10
Speaker 3: And the New York Times piece on this said that she's,
43:12
Speaker 3: and her team are a little bit nervous, though they
43:14
Speaker 3: seem confident, but they said that she's going to be
43:17
Speaker 3: attacking Kyrsten Sinema quite a bit. So if she starts
43:22
Speaker 3: attacking Kyrsten Sinema as being too liberal- then it's going
43:25
Speaker 3: to be harder for... I mean, it's interesting. And it's
43:28
Speaker 3: also a case where Trump and Biden will get the
43:32
Speaker 3: lion's share of the media coverage. But in this race,
43:35
Speaker 3: because Sinema is the incumbent, you can imagine all three
43:38
Speaker 3: candidates getting an equal share of the coverage. And so
43:41
Speaker 3: then it's going to be a much more even playing
43:42
Speaker 3: field in terms of people knowing who they are.
43:45
Speaker 2: I mean, we joke all the time about three-dimensional chess,
43:47
Speaker 2: but a three-way race like that really is as close
43:49
Speaker 2: as you get to three-dimensional chess in politics because it's
43:51
Speaker 2: very complicated.
43:53
Speaker 5: Yeah.
43:53
Speaker 1: But again.
43:54
Speaker 3: Huge implications because, you know, if everything goes well for
43:58
Speaker 3: Democrats in the Senate and we, you know, protect most
44:02
Speaker 3: of our incumbents, basically all of them except one.
44:05
Speaker 2: And that's an incumbent seat. That's a seat we have.
44:07
Speaker 1: Right.
44:08
Speaker 3: Then and Sinema gets replaced with Gallego and Democrats hold
44:13
Speaker 3: the Senate. We probably now at that point, and if
44:17
Speaker 3: Democrats hold the House and Joe Biden wins, you would
44:20
Speaker 3: have the votes at least to eliminate the filibuster for
44:24
Speaker 3: passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and protecting abortion access.
44:29
Speaker 3: Since those are the two issues where just about all
44:32
Speaker 3: of the Senate Democrats, except for Sinema and Manchin, would
44:36
Speaker 3: be willing to remove the filibuster for.
44:39
Speaker 2: I would say there are close to zero scenarios where
44:41
Speaker 2: Democrats hold the Senate and lose Arizona.
44:44
Speaker 7: Yeah.
44:45
Speaker 1: No, I think that's right. I think that's right. All right.
44:48
Speaker 1: A few quick housekeeping notes before we move on.
44:50
Speaker 3: Halloween is around the corner, which means it's a great
44:52
Speaker 3: time to start listening to Ruined, our excellent podcast about
44:55
Speaker 3: horror films, hosted by Love It or Leave It head
44:57
Speaker 3: writer and occasional Pod Save America game host Hallie Kiefer,
45:01
Speaker 3: as well as her squeamish friend and co-host Allison Leiby.
45:04
Speaker 3: Every week, the two hilariously unpack a different horror movie,
45:08
Speaker 3: and for those of you like Allison, who are too
45:10
Speaker 3: scared to watch, also like me, fear not, Hallie will
45:13
Speaker 3: ruin the movie for you. Check it out wherever you
45:16
Speaker 3: get your podcasts.
45:17
Speaker 1: Also... Dan, we're headed to D.C. next week. How exciting.
45:22
Speaker 3: We got a live pod Save America on October 19th.
45:26
Speaker 3: And we have really outbooked ourselves for this one. John Fetterman,
45:30
Speaker 3: Jose Andres, Virginia State Senate candidate, friend of the pod,
45:33
Speaker 3: Jennifer Carol Foy, and our guest host, Simone Sanders. Also,
45:38
Speaker 3: we will be live streaming the show. So if you
45:39
Speaker 3: can't make it, you can watch from home. See where
45:42
Speaker 3: else we're heading in the next couple of months and
45:44
Speaker 3: get your tickets at crooked.com slash events.
45:47
Speaker 1: All right. Finally, we are ending with a new segment.
45:50
Speaker 3: We're calling the Crook Political Report because we're fucking dorks.
45:56
Speaker 2: Actually, if you get that, we're huge dorks for making
45:59
Speaker 2: the joke. If you get the joke, you're also a dork.
46:03
Speaker 1: You're also a dork. That's right. If you laughed, you're
46:05
Speaker 1: a dork. If you didn't, don't worry about it. You're fine.
46:07
Speaker 7: All right.
46:08
Speaker 3: Representative George Santos was hit with another 10 criminal charges
46:13
Speaker 3: this week. in a superseding indictment that includes conspiracy, aggravated
46:17
Speaker 3: identity theft, wire fraud, and credit card fraud for allegedly
46:21
Speaker 3: charging $ 45, 000 on the card of a donor without their knowledge.
46:26
Speaker 3: Tom Suozzi, the Democrat who once held the seat in
46:28
Speaker 3: a district that Joe Biden won in 2020, announced this
46:31
Speaker 3: week he'll be running again. About six New York House
46:34
Speaker 3: Republicans introduced a resolution to expel Santos. doesn't seem to
46:39
Speaker 3: be going anywhere. Nothing seems to be going anywhere in
46:41
Speaker 3: the House right now. They can't find a speaker. Certainly,
46:43
Speaker 3: they're not going to move a resolution to expel George Santos.
46:47
Speaker 1: Here's a question.
46:48
Speaker 3: Why do you think Democrats haven't been able to make
46:50
Speaker 3: Republicans pay a political price for protecting a guy who
46:54
Speaker 3: even some Republicans want to expel?
46:58
Speaker 2: Well, I think we are, I'm not sure we're not
47:00
Speaker 2: making them pay a political price yet. If these six
47:02
Speaker 2: Republicans are, who represent districts, battleground districts in New York
47:07
Speaker 2: are trying to get rid of the guy, Probably means
47:08
Speaker 2: there's something in their polling that shows they want to
47:10
Speaker 2: get as far away from Santos as possible. But we
47:14
Speaker 2: can't talk about this without mentioning the indicted elephant in
47:16
Speaker 2: the room. We have our own problem, which is New
47:20
Speaker 2: Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, who got another indictment.
47:23
Speaker 3: Speaking of superseding indictments, tis the day for superseding indictments.
47:29
Speaker 3: He was just hit with one, a superseding indictment today,
47:32
Speaker 3: right before we started recording, a first for us, that
47:36
Speaker 3: charges him and his wife with conspiring to act as
47:40
Speaker 3: agents of the Egyptian government.
47:42
Speaker 1: Dan, is that bad?
47:44
Speaker 3: I am.
47:45
Speaker 2: Generally, I like to wait for data. I'm not going
47:46
Speaker 2: to wait for data on this one. It's a bad crime,
47:50
Speaker 2: politically very bad. And Bob Menendez's continued presence in the
47:55
Speaker 2: Senate is a problem for Democrats. It makes it harder,
47:58
Speaker 2: obviously very awkward to make the case against Republicans for
48:01
Speaker 2: keeping their indicted member in their caucus. And you know
48:04
Speaker 2: it's a problem for Democrats because every Democrat in a
48:06
Speaker 2: tough race has called on Menendez to resign. They did
48:10
Speaker 2: it almost in unison a few weeks ago when these
48:12
Speaker 2: indictments came out. He needs to go. It is a
48:15
Speaker 2: huge problem. He's being primaried by Andy Kim, Representative Andy Kim,
48:20
Speaker 2: maybe others. You talked about this. I wrote about it
48:25
Speaker 2: when it happened. It is a very large political problem
48:29
Speaker 2: for Democrats. Even if we're never going to look as
48:31
Speaker 2: bad as the guy standing by the former president with
48:35
Speaker 2: 91 indictments, it just makes it so much harder to
48:37
Speaker 2: have a conversation about it, to have moral authority to
48:39
Speaker 2: talk about it when we have our own a person
48:41
Speaker 2: in our own caucus, indicted for many of the same
48:43
Speaker 2: crimes as George Santos.
48:45
Speaker 1: I just don't get it.
48:46
Speaker 3: Every Democrat in a competitive Senate race, plus a whole
48:51
Speaker 3: bunch of, to their credit, a whole bunch of other
48:53
Speaker 3: Senate Democrats who aren't in competitive races, who aren't running
48:56
Speaker 3: for re-election this year, have called on him to resign,
48:59
Speaker 3: with the exception of, for competitive races, Joe Manchin. So
49:04
Speaker 3: these are the senators who've been asked about it but
49:06
Speaker 3: declined to call on him to resign and said, oh,
49:09
Speaker 3: we should either let the legal process play out or
49:12
Speaker 3: that's a decision for the voters. Joe Manchin, Tim Kaine,
49:15
Speaker 3: Catherine Cortez Masto, Ben Ray Lujan. I don't know what
49:18
Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer doing. What's what's going on there? Al Franken
49:22
Speaker 3: was not charged with anything. And whether or not you
49:26
Speaker 3: believe the allegations, a bunch of Democrats came out within weeks,
49:31
Speaker 3: including Chuck Schumer, calling on him to resign.
49:33
Speaker 1: And then he did.
49:34
Speaker 3: Now we've got multiple federal indictments against Bob Menendez.
49:40
Speaker 1: I mean, I just I don't understand it.
49:42
Speaker 2: I have to imagine that all of these Senate Democrats,
49:46
Speaker 2: strictly the ones in the tough races, don't all come
49:48
Speaker 2: out within a day without Chuck Schumer's involvement in that.
49:50
Speaker 2: He obviously understands the huge political problem here. And I
49:53
Speaker 2: imagine he's also working somewhat behind the scenes to try
49:58
Speaker 2: to convince Menendez to resign. I cannot explain the rest
50:02
Speaker 2: of these people. I cannot explain. Joe Manchin seems like
50:06
Speaker 2: a layup for him. I don't even know what he's...
50:08
Speaker 2: Maybe he thinks because Donald Trump, with all of his indictments,
50:11
Speaker 2: is up by like 40 points in the general election
50:12
Speaker 2: polls in West Virginia, that it's a pro-indictment state. But
50:14
Speaker 2: I think that's misreading the political environment. I truly don't know.
50:18
Speaker 1: He's going to go out and commit a crime. He's
50:20
Speaker 1: going to get indicted himself. He's like, this is my
50:22
Speaker 1: only ticket. This is my only chance. I got to
50:24
Speaker 1: get indicted. Also, I just want to underscore.
50:28
Speaker 3: Like the absurdity and just brazenness of the George Santos crime.
50:35
Speaker 3: Because we talk about a lot of these charges and
50:36
Speaker 3: some of them are tough for voters to understand. Here's
50:39
Speaker 3: what George Santos has been most recently charged with. So
50:43
Speaker 3: a donor gives him his credit card, which is a
50:46
Speaker 3: don't text George Santos your credit card number.
50:49
Speaker 2: I thought he just donated to the campaign.
50:52
Speaker 3: No, he texted George Santos like, here's my credit card
50:55
Speaker 3: number so you can charge something. I want to donate
50:58
Speaker 3: to the campaign. So George Santos takes his credit card number,
51:02
Speaker 3: racks up all these charges, including $ 12, 000 that was transferred
51:07
Speaker 3: to George Santos' personal bank account. And then on the
51:11
Speaker 3: FEC report was like, where did all these donations come from?
51:14
Speaker 3: Because obviously $ 45, 000 is not supposed to come from one
51:16
Speaker 3: person for any kind of donation. And so then George
51:18
Speaker 3: Santos said, made up the names of a bunch of
51:20
Speaker 3: people and then took the names of some of his
51:23
Speaker 3: family members and said that they had all donated to
51:27
Speaker 3: just make all the donations make sense from this one
51:29
Speaker 3: donor who he just defrauded by just stealing money from him.
51:34
Speaker 2: I mean, this one donor needs one of those apps
51:38
Speaker 2: that gives you an alert when there's an unusually large
51:41
Speaker 2: charge on your account.
51:45
Speaker 1: Truly wild. Truly wild.
51:47
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's what's going on with George Santos and
51:49
Speaker 3: Bob Menendez should resign and George Santos should resign and
51:54
Speaker 3: Donald Trump shouldn't run for president.
51:55
Speaker 1: There you go. That's just the, that's the, that's.
51:58
Speaker 3: The really, it's a difficult moral ground that I'm planting
52:01
Speaker 3: the flag on.
52:02
Speaker 2: And thus concludes the first and probably last episode of
52:06
Speaker 2: the crook political report.
52:07
Speaker 1: Oh, you think it's going to be the last?
52:10
Speaker 2: Well, there'll be a lot of talking about crooks, but
52:12
Speaker 2: maybe the last time we embrace this branding.
52:14
Speaker 1: Crook political report.
52:15
Speaker 7: Yeah.
52:15
Speaker 1: Okay. Well, Uh, no, no one wanted to join us today.
52:18
Speaker 1: So thanks to no one for.
52:21
Speaker 2: Hard to blame them.
52:22
Speaker 3: I'll be honest with you, but, uh, everyone have a
52:26
Speaker 3: great weekend and we will see you next week. And, uh, and,
52:29
Speaker 3: and hopefully see some of you, uh, DC listeners at
52:32
Speaker 3: our show.
52:32
Speaker 1: Uh, on October 19th. So everyone have a great weekend.
52:35
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week. Bye everyone.
52:38
Speaker 3: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our producers
52:41
Speaker 3: are Olivia Martinez and David Toledo. Our associate producer is
52:45
Speaker 3: Farrah Safari. Writing support from Hallie Kiefer. Reed Cherlin is
52:48
Speaker 3: our executive producer. The show is mixed and edited by
52:51
Speaker 3: Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer, with audio
52:55
Speaker 3: support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Madeline Herringer is
52:59
Speaker 3: our head of news and programming. Matt DeGroat is our
53:01
Speaker 3: head of production. Andy Taft is our executive assistant. Thanks
53:04
Speaker 3: to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Mia Kelman,
53:08
Speaker 3: David Tolles, Kiril Pallaviv, and Molly Lobel. Subscribe to Pod
53:12
Speaker 3: Save America on YouTube to catch full episodes and extra
53:15
Speaker 3: video content. Find us at youtube.com slash at Pod Save America. Finally,
53:20
Speaker 3: you can join our Friends of the Pod subscription community
53:23
Speaker 3: for ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and a great discussion on Discord. Plus,
53:27
Speaker 3: it's a great way to get involved with Vote Save America.
53:30
Speaker 3: Sign up at crooked.com slash friends.